WEBVTT - Why Impeachment is a Bad Political Move.  Lanhee Chen talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>Because we have political breaking news as the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the the meeting with Nancy and then the House Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>just got over and they had a discussion about impeachment.

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<v Speaker 1>So we have the news. Now we've got the analysis

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<v Speaker 1>with one or one of our favorite analysts. Indeed, we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna caucus with Lan heat Chen, the host of the

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<v Speaker 1>podcast Crossing Lines with Lan hea Chen. Lan he is

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<v Speaker 1>a David and Diane Steffy Research Fellow with the Hoover Institution.

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<v Speaker 1>He's also something behind Sean's head director of Domestic Policy

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<v Speaker 1>Studies and Lecture in the Public Policy Program at Stanford.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you for moving Sean, Lonie. How are you, sir? Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm doing fine. Guys, how are you good? It's always

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<v Speaker 1>great to talk. So we're just playing a clip, playing

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<v Speaker 1>a clip of Nancy and AOC not sounding like they were,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, loaded for bear for impeachment. Certainly, while I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure it's certainly still on the table, they're not. We're

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<v Speaker 1>not going there yet. But what I want to ask

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<v Speaker 1>you about is I keep hearing about the conventional wisdom

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<v Speaker 1>that uh, impeaching Clinton hurt the Republicans and so it

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<v Speaker 1>would be a bad idea for the Democrats, dude for Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>and I just feel like there's no conventional wisdom that

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<v Speaker 1>matters anymore. I mean, everything's gotten thrown out the window

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<v Speaker 1>in the last several years with the conventional wisdom. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you still hold to the the idea that would obviously

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<v Speaker 1>be a bad political move for the House to impeach Trump. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think the reason why it is a

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<v Speaker 1>bad political move is not because of the conventional wisdom,

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<v Speaker 1>but if because of who Trump is and what Trump

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<v Speaker 1>is able to do with the platforms he has. All Right,

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<v Speaker 1>It's not so much that impeachment and of itself would

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<v Speaker 1>be of great benefit to the Democrats, would be a

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<v Speaker 1>great benefits to the Republicans. It's just Trump would find

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<v Speaker 1>a way to take all of that energy and redirect it. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, He's like one of those forces in the

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<v Speaker 1>universe that absorbs that energy and then spews it out

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<v Speaker 1>in an opposite direction. And I just and I see

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<v Speaker 1>that this would be a very predictably bad outcome to

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<v Speaker 1>the Democrats, which is why, by the way, I think

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<v Speaker 1>Matthew Pelosi is the only thing holding that that team

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<v Speaker 1>together right now. There weren't for her and sort of

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<v Speaker 1>the way that she's thinking about this. They would they

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<v Speaker 1>would have been well down the road on impeachment already,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think politically it would harm them going into

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<v Speaker 1>the next election side. Well, to your point, Lonnie, about

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<v Speaker 1>taking energy and redirecting it, it is undeniable at this point.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't care who you are and how you vote.

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<v Speaker 1>That the narrative Number one of why Trump is illegitimate

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<v Speaker 1>or should not be president was the whole Russian collusion

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<v Speaker 1>thing Lett turned out to be baseless, and so the

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<v Speaker 1>president could easily say, all right, here's another effort to

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<v Speaker 1>overturn the election, exactly exactly, and and you know it

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<v Speaker 1>just it fits into the narrative that President Trump is

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<v Speaker 1>out there and in part trying to uh to continue,

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<v Speaker 1>which is that his opponents are willing to oppose him

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<v Speaker 1>at all costs, even if that means overturning the will

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<v Speaker 1>of the people, the will of the people who supported him.

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<v Speaker 1>And I do think that the other piece of this

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<v Speaker 1>is that when some of these Democrats start to talk

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<v Speaker 1>about impeachment, they get this look in their eyes, this

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<v Speaker 1>sort of crazed look almost and and and it doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>serve their party. Well, I don't think that's what the

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<v Speaker 1>American people want as an alternative. I don't think they

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<v Speaker 1>want fire breathing opponents of the president who are willing

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<v Speaker 1>to go to the match op post him at all costs.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there will they want someone who's willing to

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<v Speaker 1>point out when he's wrong or point out areas where

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<v Speaker 1>he's not doing things well, but I don't think they

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<v Speaker 1>want someone who opposes him at every turn. Well for

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<v Speaker 1>the crowd in the Democratic Party that does want impeachment, though,

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<v Speaker 1>what is their thinking since they know they don't have

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<v Speaker 1>the votes in the Senate, do they think they would

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<v Speaker 1>change public opinion with the impeachment hearing somehow or well,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't even understand what their strategy is. Well, there's

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<v Speaker 1>two measures of thinking I've heard about. One is exactly

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<v Speaker 1>your point, which is this would be a saga played

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<v Speaker 1>out on television that surely something negative would come out

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<v Speaker 1>of impeachment proceedings that would hurt the president. It would

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<v Speaker 1>be a spectacle that would finally allow them to be

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<v Speaker 1>at the same bandwidth as the President in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the getting of information out there and the propagation of information.

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<v Speaker 1>So that that's one theory. The other theory goes to

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<v Speaker 1>energy for the Democratic base that because there are many

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<v Speaker 1>in the Democratic Party primary base, the sort of died

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<v Speaker 1>in the world Democratic Party activists who want this to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>If the Democratic Party in Congress does not do this,

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to suck the lights out of the base

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<v Speaker 1>and suck the energy out of the base and make

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<v Speaker 1>them less motivated how to turn out to vote. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't subscribe to that theory because I think the base, frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>the Democratic base hates Trump so much. I don't care

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<v Speaker 1>what the Democrat in Congress do or don't do. They're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna come out and vote against him. But but there

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<v Speaker 1>is this theory about political mobilization which goes to the

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<v Speaker 1>necessity of firing up your base, which, by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>is why Trump continues talk about immigration and the issues

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<v Speaker 1>that the Republican base cares about. I think in the

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<v Speaker 1>same way that Democratic politicians are saying, Look, we know

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<v Speaker 1>our base cares about impeachment. That's we're going to keep

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<v Speaker 1>talking about it. Lan he Chen as host of the

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<v Speaker 1>podcast Crossing Lines with Lan heat Chen. Yeah, I see

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<v Speaker 1>your point, although I think there still is some danger

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<v Speaker 1>for the Democratic base in the same way that prior

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<v Speaker 1>to Trump coming along the energy and the Republican Party

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<v Speaker 1>I think was really on the decline, partly because the

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans up and down the roster showed no interest in

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<v Speaker 1>fiscal responsibility, which is one of the great causes of

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<v Speaker 1>the Republican base. And so yeah, I guess you have

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<v Speaker 1>to keep throwing the breadcrumbs. But it's just it seems

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<v Speaker 1>idiotic to me, the idea of uh impeaching him, especially

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<v Speaker 1>now it's mid en We've got an election in the

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<v Speaker 1>like an hour and a half. Yeah, exactly. Well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the point about fiscal responsibility is really interesting because I

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<v Speaker 1>think you're absolutely right that for many years that was

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<v Speaker 1>a hallmark signature issue amongst Republicans and the Republican base.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not so sure anymore. You know, I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>that Republican voters care nearly as much about the fiscal

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<v Speaker 1>condition of the country and fiscal responsibility the issues you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna make, you know, you know, I've I've been I've

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<v Speaker 1>been crying for for years about this one. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's the reality though, of of what federal spending does,

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<v Speaker 1>is that federal spending eventually sort of lures people in.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think we've seen that happen on on many

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<v Speaker 1>many issues, and certainly with Republican base. Um, what's to

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<v Speaker 1>come clear with the polling over the years is that

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<v Speaker 1>fifcal responsibility does not test nearly as well as it

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<v Speaker 1>used to. And I have to because uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>people just don't care and so there's no party. So

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<v Speaker 1>there's no party for that anymore. There's no constituency for wow.

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<v Speaker 1>So you don't think, though you're a political scientist, is

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<v Speaker 1>there any way there's a soft landing from this profligate spending.

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<v Speaker 1>We're well over twenty two trillion dollars in debt now

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<v Speaker 1>or will it be exorbitant taxes and a choked economy

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<v Speaker 1>that the more doomsday issue scenarios that people like me,

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<v Speaker 1>you're constantly so you're cuts the Proah, yeah, well you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I I really hope it doesn't go the way of

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<v Speaker 1>higher taxes and choking off economic growth. By the way,

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<v Speaker 1>one interesting thing to think about is this the Social

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<v Speaker 1>Security program. When the Social Security Program trust fund runs

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<v Speaker 1>out of money, which will happen here, you know, within

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<v Speaker 1>the next few decades. When that happens, it's not just

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<v Speaker 1>the wealthy who get their benefits cut. Every single beneficiary

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<v Speaker 1>on Social Security will have to get their benefits cut

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<v Speaker 1>by an equivalent amount. I don't care if you make

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<v Speaker 1>twenty dollars a year or you make two million dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a year. The reality is that entitlement cuts are coming,

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<v Speaker 1>whether we like it or not. And that's why dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with it now is the right answer. In terms of

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<v Speaker 1>what it's gonna take, it's gonna take transformational leadership. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think it's something where you know, we we can

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<v Speaker 1>scare people into it, as we've tried that. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think it's something where we can say, well, taxes are coming,

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<v Speaker 1>because you know, we all know that's probably gonna happen

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<v Speaker 1>if a Democrat gets elected. I don't think people are

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<v Speaker 1>really phazed by that. It's got to take a leader

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<v Speaker 1>who's willing to stand up president I think, and say, look,

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<v Speaker 1>this is some some here's some medicine. You're gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>to have it. It It doesn't taste great, but we need

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<v Speaker 1>it to keep the country on track. And that's the

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<v Speaker 1>only thing that I think is going to change this.

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<v Speaker 1>And unfortunately, see anybody out there who's willing to have

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<v Speaker 1>that message, Well, Alan he if you're asking me to

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<v Speaker 1>run I accept your call I have, but I would

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<v Speaker 1>I would warn your oppo research guys, they're gonna see

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<v Speaker 1>some stuff that will shot. We're gonna have to start

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<v Speaker 1>spinning immediately. Well it got it got no news coverage

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<v Speaker 1>that Mitch McConnell got a bipartisan deal in the Senate

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<v Speaker 1>to raise the dead ceiling and that whole thing. No

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<v Speaker 1>fight on that whatsoever. Yeah, I mean, you know that

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<v Speaker 1>the issue with the death ceiling is is it's become

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<v Speaker 1>For a while, there was a real political hoppotade. Remember

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<v Speaker 1>back in two thousand thousand eleven during the fiscal fiscal

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<v Speaker 1>cliff and the fiscal crisis. Now, I think everybody has

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<v Speaker 1>agreed that this is sort of mutually assured destruction if

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<v Speaker 1>we don't raise the death ceiling. So they've tried to

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<v Speaker 1>be politicize this, but at least it was a point

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<v Speaker 1>of levels for something, not like there's just nobody cares anymore, no,

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<v Speaker 1>I know. And and think back to when we have

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<v Speaker 1>every we had that Bowl Simpson Commission, which was put

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<v Speaker 1>together to come up with ideas, and they're like, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>here's some ideas that both sides are gonna hate. And

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<v Speaker 1>I said, wow, that's great. That's actually exactly what we need.

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<v Speaker 1>We need ideas that both sides are gonna hate, because

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<v Speaker 1>that's the only way we solve this problem. And unfortunately

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<v Speaker 1>we've come really far from that. It's only been nine years,

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<v Speaker 1>eight eight or nine years since we had that commission,

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<v Speaker 1>and I gotta say we are we are as far

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<v Speaker 1>away from fiscal responsibility today as we've ever been. Wow. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's fabulous. That is something ancient Rome calling, ancient Rome calling. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>Lana he Chen is the host of the podcast Crossing

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<v Speaker 1>Lines with lanh Chan. He's a big brain to the

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<v Speaker 1>Hoover Institution, director of Domestic Policy Studies, and lecturer at Stanford.

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<v Speaker 1>Lan He always enlightening. We enjoy it very much. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for the time. Hey, thank you guys. And we'll have

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<v Speaker 1>a link to lan He's podcast. You can find it quickly. Listen.

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<v Speaker 1>You're tiring me out. You're like some guy who wants

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<v Speaker 1>to rescind Louisiana purchase year cause your issue is so

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<v Speaker 1>old and dumb. Nobody cares. I was just thinking we

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<v Speaker 1>should stop talking about it. I mean, if nobody cares

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<v Speaker 1>about it, talking about it is not good for you know,

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<v Speaker 1>ratings or listenership either, nobody. We're We're the fat guy.

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<v Speaker 1>The doctor told him, look, you keep eating like that,

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<v Speaker 1>you're gonna die. Whatever. I'm just going, We're not that guy.

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<v Speaker 1>We're the dietitian crying outside his window is he hammers

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<v Speaker 1>down chocolate cake by the fisto. We're saying, please, we

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<v Speaker 1>love you, Mr America. We don't want you to kill yourself.

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<v Speaker 1>Stop it, so you know, to drop my sarcasm for

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<v Speaker 1>the moment. Uh, and probably only for a moment. I

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<v Speaker 1>just I feel like we owe it to the kids.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, your kids are young. I don't want them

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<v Speaker 1>to row up, and I'm going to drain the blood

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<v Speaker 1>of the young and live forever. So this concerns me

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<v Speaker 1>as well. They're gonna wait, grow up the way Brits

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<v Speaker 1>did whatever, like seventy years ago, where you just have

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<v Speaker 1>to realize, oh, we're not going to be a dominant

0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:06.280
<v Speaker 1>world power anymore. That's over. It's entirely possible, and and

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<v Speaker 1>the cuts to the there are going to be you think,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you hear these sob stories now about America's

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<v Speaker 1>poor food insecurity. They got cable TV and a jet ski. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna be real poor when all these benefits are cut.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, everybody's gonna say what happened? I help him

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<v Speaker 1>around to yell at you are strong and getty