1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,280 Speaker 1: Because we have political breaking news as the you know, 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,279 Speaker 1: the the meeting with Nancy and then the House Democrats 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: just got over and they had a discussion about impeachment. 4 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:11,959 Speaker 1: So we have the news. Now we've got the analysis 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: with one or one of our favorite analysts. Indeed, we're 6 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: gonna caucus with Lan heat Chen, the host of the 7 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: podcast Crossing Lines with Lan hea Chen. Lan he is 8 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: a David and Diane Steffy Research Fellow with the Hoover Institution. 9 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: He's also something behind Sean's head director of Domestic Policy 10 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: Studies and Lecture in the Public Policy Program at Stanford. 11 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,480 Speaker 1: Thank you for moving Sean, Lonie. How are you, sir? Hey, 12 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: I'm doing fine. Guys, how are you good? It's always 13 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 1: great to talk. So we're just playing a clip, playing 14 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 1: a clip of Nancy and AOC not sounding like they were, 15 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: you know, loaded for bear for impeachment. Certainly, while I'm 16 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: sure it's certainly still on the table, they're not. We're 17 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 1: not going there yet. But what I want to ask 18 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: you about is I keep hearing about the conventional wisdom 19 00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: that uh, impeaching Clinton hurt the Republicans and so it 20 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: would be a bad idea for the Democrats, dude for Trump, 21 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: and I just feel like there's no conventional wisdom that 22 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 1: matters anymore. I mean, everything's gotten thrown out the window 23 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: in the last several years with the conventional wisdom. Do 24 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: you still hold to the the idea that would obviously 25 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: be a bad political move for the House to impeach Trump. Yeah, 26 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: you know, I think the reason why it is a 27 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: bad political move is not because of the conventional wisdom, 28 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 1: but if because of who Trump is and what Trump 29 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: is able to do with the platforms he has. All Right, 30 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: It's not so much that impeachment and of itself would 31 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 1: be of great benefit to the Democrats, would be a 32 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,919 Speaker 1: great benefits to the Republicans. It's just Trump would find 33 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,839 Speaker 1: a way to take all of that energy and redirect it. Um. 34 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: You know, He's like one of those forces in the 35 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:52,279 Speaker 1: universe that absorbs that energy and then spews it out 36 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: in an opposite direction. And I just and I see 37 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: that this would be a very predictably bad outcome to 38 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: the Democrats, which is why, by the way, I think 39 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: Matthew Pelosi is the only thing holding that that team 40 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: together right now. There weren't for her and sort of 41 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: the way that she's thinking about this. They would they 42 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 1: would have been well down the road on impeachment already, 43 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: and I think politically it would harm them going into 44 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: the next election side. Well, to your point, Lonnie, about 45 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: taking energy and redirecting it, it is undeniable at this point. 46 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: I don't care who you are and how you vote. 47 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 1: That the narrative Number one of why Trump is illegitimate 48 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 1: or should not be president was the whole Russian collusion 49 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: thing Lett turned out to be baseless, and so the 50 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: president could easily say, all right, here's another effort to 51 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: overturn the election, exactly exactly, and and you know it 52 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: just it fits into the narrative that President Trump is 53 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: out there and in part trying to uh to continue, 54 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: which is that his opponents are willing to oppose him 55 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: at all costs, even if that means overturning the will 56 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 1: of the people, the will of the people who supported him. 57 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 1: And I do think that the other piece of this 58 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: is that when some of these Democrats start to talk 59 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: about impeachment, they get this look in their eyes, this 60 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: sort of crazed look almost and and and it doesn't 61 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: serve their party. Well, I don't think that's what the 62 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: American people want as an alternative. I don't think they 63 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: want fire breathing opponents of the president who are willing 64 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: to go to the match op post him at all costs. 65 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 1: I think there will they want someone who's willing to 66 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: point out when he's wrong or point out areas where 67 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: he's not doing things well, but I don't think they 68 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: want someone who opposes him at every turn. Well for 69 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: the crowd in the Democratic Party that does want impeachment, though, 70 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: what is their thinking since they know they don't have 71 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: the votes in the Senate, do they think they would 72 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: change public opinion with the impeachment hearing somehow or well, 73 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: I don't even understand what their strategy is. Well, there's 74 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: two measures of thinking I've heard about. One is exactly 75 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: your point, which is this would be a saga played 76 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: out on television that surely something negative would come out 77 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,839 Speaker 1: of impeachment proceedings that would hurt the president. It would 78 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: be a spectacle that would finally allow them to be 79 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: at the same bandwidth as the President in terms of 80 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: the getting of information out there and the propagation of information. 81 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 1: So that that's one theory. The other theory goes to 82 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: energy for the Democratic base that because there are many 83 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,600 Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party primary base, the sort of died 84 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: in the world Democratic Party activists who want this to happen. 85 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: If the Democratic Party in Congress does not do this, 86 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: they're going to suck the lights out of the base 87 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: and suck the energy out of the base and make 88 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: them less motivated how to turn out to vote. I 89 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: don't subscribe to that theory because I think the base, frankly, 90 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: the Democratic base hates Trump so much. I don't care 91 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: what the Democrat in Congress do or don't do. They're 92 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: gonna come out and vote against him. But but there 93 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: is this theory about political mobilization which goes to the 94 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: necessity of firing up your base, which, by the way, 95 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: is why Trump continues talk about immigration and the issues 96 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 1: that the Republican base cares about. I think in the 97 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: same way that Democratic politicians are saying, Look, we know 98 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: our base cares about impeachment. That's we're going to keep 99 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 1: talking about it. Lan he Chen as host of the 100 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: podcast Crossing Lines with Lan heat Chen. Yeah, I see 101 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: your point, although I think there still is some danger 102 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: for the Democratic base in the same way that prior 103 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: to Trump coming along the energy and the Republican Party 104 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: I think was really on the decline, partly because the 105 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 1: Republicans up and down the roster showed no interest in 106 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: fiscal responsibility, which is one of the great causes of 107 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: the Republican base. And so yeah, I guess you have 108 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,679 Speaker 1: to keep throwing the breadcrumbs. But it's just it seems 109 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: idiotic to me, the idea of uh impeaching him, especially 110 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 1: now it's mid en We've got an election in the 111 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 1: like an hour and a half. Yeah, exactly. Well, you know, 112 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: the point about fiscal responsibility is really interesting because I 113 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: think you're absolutely right that for many years that was 114 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: a hallmark signature issue amongst Republicans and the Republican base. 115 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: I'm not so sure anymore. You know, I don't know 116 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 1: that Republican voters care nearly as much about the fiscal 117 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: condition of the country and fiscal responsibility the issues you're 118 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: gonna make, you know, you know, I've I've been I've 119 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: been crying for for years about this one. I mean, 120 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: it's it's the reality though, of of what federal spending does, 121 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 1: is that federal spending eventually sort of lures people in. 122 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: And I think we've seen that happen on on many 123 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: many issues, and certainly with Republican base. Um, what's to 124 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 1: come clear with the polling over the years is that 125 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: fifcal responsibility does not test nearly as well as it 126 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: used to. And I have to because uh, you know, 127 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 1: people just don't care and so there's no party. So 128 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 1: there's no party for that anymore. There's no constituency for wow. 129 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: So you don't think, though you're a political scientist, is 130 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: there any way there's a soft landing from this profligate spending. 131 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: We're well over twenty two trillion dollars in debt now 132 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:54,479 Speaker 1: or will it be exorbitant taxes and a choked economy 133 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: that the more doomsday issue scenarios that people like me, 134 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: you're constantly so you're cuts the Proah, yeah, well you know, 135 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: I I really hope it doesn't go the way of 136 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: higher taxes and choking off economic growth. By the way, 137 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: one interesting thing to think about is this the Social 138 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: Security program. When the Social Security Program trust fund runs 139 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:18,119 Speaker 1: out of money, which will happen here, you know, within 140 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: the next few decades. When that happens, it's not just 141 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: the wealthy who get their benefits cut. Every single beneficiary 142 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: on Social Security will have to get their benefits cut 143 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: by an equivalent amount. I don't care if you make 144 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: twenty dollars a year or you make two million dollars 145 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: a year. The reality is that entitlement cuts are coming, 146 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:39,679 Speaker 1: whether we like it or not. And that's why dealing 147 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: with it now is the right answer. In terms of 148 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 1: what it's gonna take, it's gonna take transformational leadership. I 149 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: don't think it's something where you know, we we can 150 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: scare people into it, as we've tried that. I don't 151 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: think it's something where we can say, well, taxes are coming, 152 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 1: because you know, we all know that's probably gonna happen 153 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: if a Democrat gets elected. I don't think people are 154 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: really phazed by that. It's got to take a leader 155 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 1: who's willing to stand up president I think, and say, look, 156 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: this is some some here's some medicine. You're gonna have 157 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: to have it. It It doesn't taste great, but we need 158 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: it to keep the country on track. And that's the 159 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: only thing that I think is going to change this. 160 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: And unfortunately, see anybody out there who's willing to have 161 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: that message, Well, Alan he if you're asking me to 162 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: run I accept your call I have, but I would 163 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: I would warn your oppo research guys, they're gonna see 164 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: some stuff that will shot. We're gonna have to start 165 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: spinning immediately. Well it got it got no news coverage 166 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: that Mitch McConnell got a bipartisan deal in the Senate 167 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 1: to raise the dead ceiling and that whole thing. No 168 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: fight on that whatsoever. Yeah, I mean, you know that 169 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: the issue with the death ceiling is is it's become 170 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: For a while, there was a real political hoppotade. Remember 171 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: back in two thousand thousand eleven during the fiscal fiscal 172 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 1: cliff and the fiscal crisis. Now, I think everybody has 173 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: agreed that this is sort of mutually assured destruction if 174 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: we don't raise the death ceiling. So they've tried to 175 00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: be politicize this, but at least it was a point 176 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 1: of levels for something, not like there's just nobody cares anymore, no, 177 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:05,719 Speaker 1: I know. And and think back to when we have 178 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: every we had that Bowl Simpson Commission, which was put 179 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: together to come up with ideas, and they're like, hey, 180 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: here's some ideas that both sides are gonna hate. And 181 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: I said, wow, that's great. That's actually exactly what we need. 182 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: We need ideas that both sides are gonna hate, because 183 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,239 Speaker 1: that's the only way we solve this problem. And unfortunately 184 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: we've come really far from that. It's only been nine years, 185 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 1: eight eight or nine years since we had that commission, 186 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: and I gotta say we are we are as far 187 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: away from fiscal responsibility today as we've ever been. Wow. Well, 188 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 1: that's fabulous. That is something ancient Rome calling, ancient Rome calling. Uh. 189 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 1: Lana he Chen is the host of the podcast Crossing 190 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: Lines with lanh Chan. He's a big brain to the 191 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 1: Hoover Institution, director of Domestic Policy Studies, and lecturer at Stanford. 192 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 1: Lan He always enlightening. We enjoy it very much. Thanks 193 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: for the time. Hey, thank you guys. And we'll have 194 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 1: a link to lan He's podcast. You can find it quickly. Listen. 195 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: You're tiring me out. You're like some guy who wants 196 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 1: to rescind Louisiana purchase year cause your issue is so 197 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: old and dumb. Nobody cares. I was just thinking we 198 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 1: should stop talking about it. I mean, if nobody cares 199 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: about it, talking about it is not good for you know, 200 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: ratings or listenership either, nobody. We're We're the fat guy. 201 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 1: The doctor told him, look, you keep eating like that, 202 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 1: you're gonna die. Whatever. I'm just going, We're not that guy. 203 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: We're the dietitian crying outside his window is he hammers 204 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 1: down chocolate cake by the fisto. We're saying, please, we 205 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: love you, Mr America. We don't want you to kill yourself. 206 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: Stop it, so you know, to drop my sarcasm for 207 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 1: the moment. Uh, and probably only for a moment. I 208 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: just I feel like we owe it to the kids. 209 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 1: I mean, your kids are young. I don't want them 210 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 1: to row up, and I'm going to drain the blood 211 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: of the young and live forever. So this concerns me 212 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: as well. They're gonna wait, grow up the way Brits 213 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 1: did whatever, like seventy years ago, where you just have 214 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,079 Speaker 1: to realize, oh, we're not going to be a dominant 215 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: world power anymore. That's over. It's entirely possible, and and 216 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: the cuts to the there are going to be you think, 217 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 1: you know, you hear these sob stories now about America's 218 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 1: poor food insecurity. They got cable TV and a jet ski. Well, 219 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: it's gonna be real poor when all these benefits are cut. 220 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, everybody's gonna say what happened? I help him 221 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:27,559 Speaker 1: around to yell at you are strong and getty