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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we.

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Speaker 2: Go, we're throwing in so spec I'm sitting it to

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Speaker 2: cash to stop. We'll see most gamblers when they go

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Speaker 2: to gamble, they go to winning.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 2: You want to pay and we are underway. Welcome to

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Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast. I am your host, Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 2: and I am joined as always by the one, the only,

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson. We're gonna be talking NFL wild Card weekend

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Speaker 2: basically between college on Thursday and Friday and the games

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Speaker 2: on Saturday, Sunday, Monday. This is Heaven on Earth, so

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Speaker 2: let's let's start right there. We're gonna get to those

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Speaker 2: best bets shortly, but first we've got some fun to

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Speaker 2: chat about with some trends, some stats, and other betting

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Speaker 2: markets up all across different sportsbooks right now, just fun,

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Speaker 2: different prop bets for this weekend stuff. I want to

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Speaker 2: first start by saying, first of all, Brandon, what's up?

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Speaker 2: How are you?

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Speaker 1: I'm great Heaven on Earth, still in North Dakota, speaking

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Speaker 1: of Heaven on Earth. So yeah, ready for the games,

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Speaker 1: rocking my Texans shirt while I still can. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure we're going to get to use that one too

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Speaker 1: many more times these playoffs spoil when we get to

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Speaker 1: that game. But yeah, we got a lot of really

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Speaker 1: fun football coming. I'm excited to get into it. Just

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Speaker 1: the next Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, just football all day,

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Speaker 1: every day.

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Speaker 2: Amazing And yeah, don't spoil much because we got unlimited

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Speaker 2: bets coming up here. So I will first say this,

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Speaker 2: So me and Brandon recorded an episode i think two

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Speaker 2: days ago on NFL Future. So if you're looking for

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Speaker 2: to win the Super Bowl, to win the Conference Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl MVP, we discussed all that stuff. It'll be in

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Speaker 2: the description as well if you want to click that

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Speaker 2: link or in the feed, just an episode or two

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Speaker 2: below this one. And also we've got quick sip links

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Speaker 2: in the episode description, So if you want to tail

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Speaker 2: any of the bets that we are giving out on

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Speaker 2: the show today, just look for those links in the

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Speaker 2: episode description. Listen, it's super easy. Just click the link

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Speaker 2: and it'll open up a bet slip for you to

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Speaker 2: tail in the sportsbook app itself. It is truly automagical

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Speaker 2: and a great invention, so please check it out. And

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Speaker 2: with that, let's go into our first topic here. So

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Speaker 2: on Fandle, there is something called Future's fusion, which is

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Speaker 2: basically just a bunch of different props where they've kind

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Speaker 2: of tossed together different result possibilities in the bracket. So, Brandon,

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Speaker 2: I've got a few of these that I kind of

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Speaker 2: find interest in, and I did a little math to

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Speaker 2: try to just figure out, you know, is there value

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Speaker 2: on some of these because they are a little weird.

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Speaker 2: But I'll let you go first. I mean, what were

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Speaker 2: you thinking of when you see all these props?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, honestly, for me, normally, when I see these fusion

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Speaker 1: types where it's like any five seed to win the

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Speaker 1: title or anyone from this division, normally, to me, I

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Speaker 1: go the other way. I'm trying to get rid of outs.

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Speaker 1: I want the sharper odds, I want the longer bet so.

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Speaker 1: But I did find too in here that I like.

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Speaker 1: One of them. Should be pretty obvious if you listen

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Speaker 1: to the Futures podcast. There's it just a bet Ravens

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Speaker 1: or Eagles to win the Super Bowl plus two sixty.

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Speaker 1: Easy starter. For me. That's my super Bowl pick is

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Speaker 1: those two teams. Hopefully that's how we turn out. Then

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Speaker 1: we're just cashing regardless of what happens there. And then

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Speaker 1: the one that's a little bit more than that Eagles

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Speaker 1: to advance further than the Bills is plus one forty five. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: the Eagles have the tougher matchup this weekend. Clearly we'll

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Speaker 1: get to those games, but after that it flips. After that,

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Speaker 1: you would rather have the Eagles here. So if they

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Speaker 1: win this weekend, suddenly Buffalo is probably playing Baltimore and

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Speaker 1: then Kansas City after that, you much rather prefer the

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Speaker 1: Eagles matchups, and we'll get to those in a bet.

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Speaker 1: So I like those. I just think the Eagles are

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Speaker 1: much better team than the Bills. Also, despite the matchups

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Speaker 1: this weekend, those are the two that cut in my eye.

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Speaker 1: What'd you see?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is all about who you like, and once

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Speaker 2: you know who you like, you kind of go digging

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Speaker 2: in to see where those bets kind of lie. So

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Speaker 2: one of them I do like is Ravens to beat

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game and the Lions

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Speaker 2: to win the Super Bowl is thirty to one, and

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Speaker 2: I kind of like this just for options. So Detroit

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Speaker 2: is going to get most likely Green Bay Washington Minnesota Rams,

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Speaker 2: they'd be about minus three hundred. Then they've got Philly

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Speaker 2: Tampa hypothetically, which are you know, minus two hundred range.

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Speaker 2: And then you've got obviously the Super Bowl case's got

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Speaker 2: one game to win to basically get into the AFC

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Speaker 2: Championship game for this bet, and then Baltimore it's a

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Speaker 2: minus five hundred, and then a even bet against Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: and then you're in the game to basically almost decided

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Speaker 2: if the Lions get to the Super Bowl. Basically, with

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Speaker 2: all those different situations, you get to about twenty to

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Speaker 2: twenty five to one. So I actually do think this

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Speaker 2: bet has a tiny bit of value into it, and Ravens,

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Speaker 2: Chiefs and Lions are pretty much the teams I kind

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Speaker 2: of like in this scenario. I also like the Eagles,

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Speaker 2: but I think at thirty to one, it's worth the price.

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Speaker 2: The other one I liked was your Eagles and Ravens,

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Speaker 2: so we don't need to go into that any further.

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Speaker 2: The other one that was a little longer I thought

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Speaker 2: was interesting is Lions to be the Rams in the

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Speaker 2: NFC Championship Game and Chiefs to win the super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: That's ninety to one. So if you like the Rams

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Speaker 2: anyway this weekend, which I'm kind of leaning, I do

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Speaker 2: think this one holds a little bit of staying power

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Speaker 2: with the Lions having the buy, the Chiefs having the buy,

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Speaker 2: and it's basically a RAMS bet this weekend. So think

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Speaker 2: those are the two that are most intriguing to me.

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Speaker 2: The other one in just the fan duels section before

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Speaker 2: we move on to the next category. I'm at least

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Speaker 2: gonna put a few dollars on every team to score

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Speaker 2: one plus rushing touchdown in the wildcard games this weekend.

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Speaker 2: It's an outlier. It's almost never gonna happen. It's also

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Speaker 2: two hundred to one, So I think in this scenario

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Speaker 2: where it's the playoffs and teams are a little bit safer,

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Speaker 2: I do think getting through a game or two, there

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Speaker 2: might be some options, but I like the bet. It's long,

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Speaker 2: all right, next category here, we're talking about playoff stat leaders,

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Speaker 2: so I'll let you go first, But I just want

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Speaker 2: to say the way I attack this is I looked

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Speaker 2: since twenty when we started with the seven teams one

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Speaker 2: seed by format and kind of just looked at who

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Speaker 2: won these different categories because I wanted to see were

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Speaker 2: there any players that played one game or two games,

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Speaker 2: like what was the minimum you needed to win these categories?

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Speaker 2: And then I kind of worked backwards from there. But

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Speaker 2: I'll let you start first.

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Speaker 1: Well, I actually I didn't get a chance to do that.

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Speaker 1: I'd be curious to hear because I wondered that and

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Speaker 1: didn't have time to get into it. So give me

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Speaker 1: some of your numbers.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So you've got basically eight winners over the four years.

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Speaker 2: So that's passing yards and passing touchdowns, rushing yards and

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Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. So if you

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Speaker 2: look at teams to play three plus games, they were

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Speaker 2: seven of eight for passing, six of eight for rushing,

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Speaker 2: and seven of eight for receiving. So almost in any scenario,

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Speaker 2: you need to have played at least three games to

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Speaker 2: win any of these categories. The two outliers, which I

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Speaker 2: do or the three outline which I do find interesting.

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Speaker 2: One was receiving touchdowns with Jake Ferguson believe he had

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Speaker 2: most of those in one or all of those in

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Speaker 2: one game last year. And then the other two were

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Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns, which I think is probably a more volatile market.

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Speaker 2: Twenty one was Singletary who only played two games, and

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Speaker 2: twenty was four Nett and Kareem Hunt. So Kareem Hunt

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Speaker 2: kind of got into the mix with just two games there.

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Speaker 2: With that being said, I could toss it back to you.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I just think whoever you're gonna take most

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Speaker 2: likely has to make it a few games in here, obviously,

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Speaker 2: and you also, the thing that's interesting to me is

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Speaker 2: like Case and Detroit not playing the game, Like those

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Speaker 2: teams most likely need to make the Super Bowl probably

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Speaker 2: to have a good chance. So toss it back.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so some of the guys that caught my eye here,

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Speaker 1: and that makes sense. Basically, again you're looking at who

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Speaker 1: do I like? Who are the teams that I like?

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Speaker 1: And then which are the players that line up for

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Speaker 1: these categories, because yeah, you got to like the team

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Speaker 1: to win at least a few games and give you

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Speaker 1: a shot here. I mean, theoretically, your receiver could have

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Speaker 1: like two hundred and fifty yards in one game and lose,

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Speaker 1: But if your guy has a two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: yard game, they're probably gonna win. So it's it's all

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Speaker 1: pretty correlated here. So looking back at the future. Is

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Speaker 1: who do I like?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 1: I like the ravens Henry for most touchdowns rushing is

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Speaker 1: plus four to seventy. I don't hate that. That's probably

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Speaker 1: the right bet. Like you said, rushing touchdowns are voladile.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I need to invest in that one,

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Speaker 1: Like I think that that has the best chance of

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Speaker 1: winning any of these that I'll say, but you got

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Speaker 1: to win at least three games probably to get there.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I really need that for that

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Speaker 1: short of a number. The one I like better, even

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Speaker 1: though he'll need to get to the super Bowl. I

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Speaker 1: think Almana Rassi and Brown receiving yards plus nine to

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Speaker 1: fifty is a really nice way to invest in the Lions.

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Speaker 1: Like we know they're gonna have to win shootouts if

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Speaker 1: they're gonna go far. And I gave out Ama Rassi

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Speaker 1: and Brown's my favorite super Bowl MVP bet on the

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Speaker 1: last podcast that we did. He averaged over ninety yards

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Speaker 1: a game receiving last year. If the Lions get to

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, I'm probably not gonna like them there.

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Speaker 1: But that's okay. That's actually even better. More passing yards

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Speaker 1: from a Ross Saint Brown so I think that's a

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Speaker 1: pretty good one, especially where the top actual receivers. I

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Speaker 1: don't expect to go long into the playoffs. A couple

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Speaker 1: evers that cut my eye. We know I like the Packers.

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love is twenty four to one on passing yards

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Speaker 1: and Jane Reid is one hundred to one on receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: We'll come back to read a little bit later. If

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Speaker 1: you think the Packers can make a run, obviously, it

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Speaker 1: starts with having to beat the Eagles this weekend. But

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Speaker 1: I think either one of those, if they make the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl, like you would definitely want to have invested

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Speaker 1: in those ones. Even if they get the NFC Championship,

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Speaker 1: that'd be a pretty good setup. And then the last one,

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Speaker 1: I think I actually hit this one last year. Travis

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Speaker 1: Kelcey touchdowns thirteen to one is a terrible number. Travis

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Speaker 1: kelce is a postseason touchdown monster. He averages like one

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Speaker 1: per game. And the only thing with that one is

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Speaker 1: he's not playing this weekend obviously, So again, you probably

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Speaker 1: need the Chiefs to get the super Bowl. That's fine,

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Speaker 1: They're going to be like a game away from being

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Speaker 1: able to do that. But this market opens back up

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Speaker 1: usually each week if we wait and someone has like

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns this weekend, I kind of have to put

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Speaker 1: Kelsey's price even longer because he hasn't played yet. So

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Speaker 1: that's my only hesitation, but it's probably my favorite one

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Speaker 1: because that's one that he just is a touchdown machine.

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Speaker 1: He gets a touchdown or two almost every playoff game.

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Speaker 1: That feelis like, could you see her?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you've said a bunch of mine, but I think

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Speaker 2: you said something smart there, and I don't have the data.

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Speaker 2: I would have to probably dig too much to even

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Speaker 2: look at it, but I would almost guarantee that some

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Speaker 2: of these Lions and Chiefs do get longer next weekend.

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Speaker 2: So if you like any of those, which I agree

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Speaker 2: with you, I like Kelsey receiving touchdowns. I also touched

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Speaker 2: Kelsey receiving yards. I think he's around thirty to one.

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Speaker 2: He is if when looking back at these categories, he's

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Speaker 2: won these awards in twenty twenty and twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: he won both, So I mean Travis Kelcey is one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent in option here. Now there's more options in casey,

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Speaker 2: but it's the playoffs. I still think Kelsey's gonna find

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Speaker 2: his way in rushing yards. I took two chances, which

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Speaker 2: would be Jade and Daniel in one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: to one and Joe Mixon at fifty five to one. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: both of these players need to go deep into the

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Speaker 2: playoffs to even have a chance here. But kind of

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Speaker 2: like Washington, and I think Houston and the Chargers is

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Speaker 2: a toss up, and if Mixing goes a round or too,

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Speaker 2: when he's going to get a ton of looks here.

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Speaker 2: Fifty five felt a little long, and then the other

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Speaker 2: vile tile markets were receiving touchdowns and rushing touchdowns, which

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Speaker 2: I honestly think you should take some more chances in

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Speaker 2: so I wrote down people like Jamison Williams at thirty

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Speaker 2: eight to one. I'm going to take a piece of

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Speaker 2: both Likely and Andrews because I just can't take one

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Speaker 2: of them, even though I'd probably rather Andrews. But Likely

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Speaker 2: at twenty seven to one I think has value and

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Speaker 2: I like him to score this weekend in the rushing

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Speaker 2: touchdown avenue. I'm also going Jayden He's at fifty to one.

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Speaker 2: I think Kyron at fourteen to one, and Aaron Jones

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Speaker 2: at twenty nine to one. Just intriguing options again, Derek

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Speaker 2: Henry gets there like he's most likely going to win

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Speaker 2: this type of award, not necessarily interested, and I think

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Speaker 2: he's like plus two to eighty. I just think it's

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Speaker 2: just too short. Might as well bet him to score

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Speaker 2: two touchdowns in some of these games. So that's the

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Speaker 2: way I look at the markets here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think betting touchdowns as volatile is

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Speaker 1: always gonna be a good idea. So just trying to

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Speaker 1: find the right guy. The one guy had on my

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Speaker 1: list I didn't mention is Gus Edwards one hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty to one, where it's like, I think he has

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Speaker 1: scored in three of the last five games. I know

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Speaker 1: JK Dobbins was out, but JK Dobbins could be out again.

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Speaker 1: I think basically what you're looking at is here, if

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Speaker 1: I like a team to possibly make a run like

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Speaker 1: I gave out Packers, If I think a team could

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Speaker 1: win three games, make it to the conference championship as

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Speaker 1: a surprise team, we get that, We get like a

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Speaker 1: team like that nearly every year. How could I bet

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Speaker 1: that any more aggressive way than just betting them to

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Speaker 1: make the conference championship or just the money line rollover?

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Speaker 1: So I think that's smart to say, Okay, what about

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Speaker 1: Stafford passing or what about Jane Daniels rushing, Like if

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Speaker 1: this team makes a run, why did it happen? What's

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Speaker 1: the story? And let me bet it with some of

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Speaker 1: these crazy long numbers, because really the entire point of

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Speaker 1: this exercise here, why I like these markets so much,

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Speaker 1: is we're betting on small samples. So this is not

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Speaker 1: the time to bet favorites for the most part. This

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Speaker 1: is the time to bet wild outliers where you're like,

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Speaker 1: you know, like Jade Reed, I like his matchup this week,

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Speaker 1: and if he has one good game for like one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty yards, you're suddenly like halfway to the

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Speaker 1: toll you might need to get to. You might get

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Speaker 1: there even in one more game, or you get close

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Speaker 1: to it. So I think these are fun markets to

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Speaker 1: bet because it's isolated, but I think that there is

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Speaker 1: big edge there where if the favorites just go to

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Speaker 1: the end and get four games, especially this year with

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Speaker 1: the Ravens as good as they are but not a

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Speaker 1: bye week team, then that's going to be a problem.

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Speaker 1: If Josh Allen plays four games, he's trying to win

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Speaker 1: some stuff.

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Speaker 3: Right, probably.

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Speaker 1: I think that there are options here with the long

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Speaker 1: odds and with a small sample that make these fun markets.

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Speaker 2: Two more things before I move on one. I kind

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Speaker 2: of do like Dontavian Wicks. I had him at eighty

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Speaker 2: or eighty five to one without Watson if you like

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Speaker 2: green Bay, I just think that's a good option. I

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Speaker 2: don't like him for receiving yards because I think reads

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Speaker 2: the better bet, but I think from a touchdown point

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Speaker 2: of view, Wicks will get some decent targets with Watson out.

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Speaker 2: And I was wrong about Kelsey earlier. He actually won

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two and twenty three in most of

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Speaker 2: these categories, and then in twenty one it was Cooper Cup.

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Speaker 2: So basically it's only been Kelsey, Cooper Cupp, and Jake

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Speaker 2: Ferguson who have won any of the receiving categories in

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Speaker 2: this stat.

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Speaker 1: So Ferguson, who I believe caught like three second half

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Speaker 1: touchdowns in the Dallas blowout loss, and that's one there,

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Speaker 1: one game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, unbelievable. We assume that won't be happening again here.

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Speaker 2: And there were more random running backs, So I do

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Speaker 2: think there is an option in the running back category. Okay,

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Speaker 2: The next really just topic we're going to talk about here,

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Speaker 2: and this one's pretty simple. Which are the quarterbacks of

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Speaker 2: the twelve playing this weekend? Do you trust the least?

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Speaker 2: I went pretty simple with this one, but I'll let

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Speaker 2: you go first.

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Speaker 1: I mean, my heart answer is Sam Donald because I'm

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Speaker 1: a liking fan and I do not trust my guy Samy,

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Speaker 1: not after what we just saw on the night, I

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Speaker 1: think the right answer has to be with respect or

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Speaker 1: disrespect to Russell Wilson. There are two rookie quarterbacks starting

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Speaker 1: on the road in playoff debuts this weekend. I gotta

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Speaker 1: say it's Bonix. I've been giving bo Nicks that disrespect

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Speaker 1: all year. I already picked against him. Spoiler, I'll be

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Speaker 1: picking against him again in multiple ways coming up. When

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Speaker 1: we get to that game. Just rookie quarterback that I

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Speaker 1: didn't think it was a first round pick that I

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Speaker 1: think has not played well against top teams, probably not

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Speaker 1: any winning script sort of game. That's a tough spot

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Speaker 1: for Bownicks this week, and I think he's got to

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Speaker 1: be the answer to me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, except Bill's defense, But you know, I guess we'll

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Speaker 2: see what happens there. The only way I really attack

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Speaker 2: this was I kind of just looked at turnover worthy

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Speaker 2: throw rate and just said to myself, like when you

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Speaker 2: talk when you say trust a quarterback, well what is

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Speaker 2: not trusting a quarterback mean? And that means basically turning

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Speaker 2: over the ball on some level. So you know, turnover

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Speaker 2: worthy throw rate for the entire season, Darnold is the

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Speaker 2: highest among quarterbacks. You made the playoffs at four percent.

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Speaker 2: It's then Love and Stafford. And then you look since

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Speaker 2: week ten at turnover worthy throw rate. Donald still the

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Speaker 2: top of the list of four percent hasn't changed at all.

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Speaker 2: Same quarterback second though, and the only quarterback three percent

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Speaker 2: are higher that made the playoffs since week ten is CJ. Stroud,

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Speaker 2: which I think some people might look at as well,

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Speaker 2: But the answer has to be Sam Donald. So let's

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Speaker 2: move forward here. You're going to talk about wild card

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Speaker 2: round blowout trends.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is something that's going to play into

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Speaker 1: some of my picks coming up. If you think that

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Speaker 1: we're going to simplify on the picks and just go

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Speaker 1: some spreads and totals, No, we we've been escalators all season.

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Speaker 1: We're escalating today. We will get there. This is what

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Speaker 1: caught my eye looking at some of these escalators. So

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Speaker 1: it feels to me like this weekend is the really

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Speaker 1: fun weekend of football. Finally the playoffs are starting, and

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Speaker 1: it feels like, in my head, hasn't this kind of

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Speaker 1: been a dud the last few times? So I dug

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Speaker 1: into the numbers and looked at it. So last three

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Speaker 1: years there are six games this weekend, so eighteen games

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Speaker 1: over three years. Eleven of the eighteen games the last

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Speaker 1: three years have been decided this round by four, fourteen

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Speaker 1: or more points. Here's the margins that we've gotten fourteen, sixteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, nineteen,

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Speaker 1: twenty one, twenty three, twenty three, A thirty and a

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Speaker 1: thirty one. We are getting blowout games. That's almost two

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Speaker 1: thirds of the games. Only three out of the eighteen

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Speaker 1: games have been under seven points, and one of those

376
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Speaker 1: was six, so we had two one point games. Everything

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Speaker 1: else is six or longer. Average margin of victory the

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Speaker 1: last three years in the wildcut round fourteen and a

379
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Speaker 1: half points a game. Median margin of victory sixteen points

380
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Speaker 1: a game. So three years is not a lot of data,

381
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Speaker 1: but it is since we just expanded the playoffs to

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Speaker 1: the seven seeds, so Here's what I'm wondering. Are we

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Speaker 1: letting weaker teams than now? Is there a bigger gap

384
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Speaker 1: between the haves and the have nots? And that's why

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Speaker 1: we're getting these because if they are, we should be

386
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Speaker 1: betting it and exploiting that as betters. So I think

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Speaker 1: that this is something real. I don't think it's just

388
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Speaker 1: a small sample. What do you think it's a it's

389
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Speaker 1: a tiny amount. But are these blowouts that we're seeing

390
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Speaker 1: something that you think might continue the weekend?

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Speaker 2: I do think the blowout in the wildcard round is

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Speaker 2: a thing. I think you also have larger spreads, sure,

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Speaker 2: so like I would be interested going forward being like, okay,

394
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Speaker 2: you know, nine and a half's eight and a halfs

395
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Speaker 2: and kind of breaking it down that way. But I

396
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Speaker 2: do think whether it's the underdog like we saw with

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Speaker 2: Green Bay last year or the favorite, I think you're

398
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Speaker 2: just more prone to having an oddity in matchups in

399
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Speaker 2: the wildcard round and it creates some you know, wild scores.

400
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Speaker 1: So I tend to agree, Yeah, I think that makes sense.

401
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,280
Speaker 1: So we'll come back to two of the longer spreads

402
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 1: this weekend that I'll be playing escalators on when we

403
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Speaker 1: get there.

404
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Speaker 2: All right, now, last category before we go into your

405
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Speaker 2: best bets. These are just divisional hypotheticals, which on FanDuel

406
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Speaker 2: and I think a few other books, they've already got

407
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Speaker 2: lines posted for the divisional round. So my just initial

408
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 2: thoughts before we go into this, what scenario do Casey

409
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 2: and Detroit's lines get bigger with them not playing? I

410
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 2: think is one interesting thought going into this, And then

411
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,879
Speaker 2: the second is this also really isn't like what is

412
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,719
Speaker 2: my favorite bet, because it's more of a marketplay, Like

413
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,119
Speaker 2: if I like Baltimore Buffalo under fifty two and a half,

414
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,919
Speaker 2: but I think it's gonna close at fifty four, this

415
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 2: is probably not the time to mention I like that

416
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 2: bet because you're kind of trying to get something ahead

417
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Speaker 2: of time. That's the way at least I looked at it.

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Speaker 2: So what do you think here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is effectively the look ahead, Like

420
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Speaker 1: this is the way the regionally close out this podcast.

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Speaker 1: So I agree with that, Like you're looking not just

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Speaker 1: to get the bet that you want to make. Like

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Speaker 1: I see a lot of other websites and content do

424
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Speaker 1: their early week picks. It's like, okay, no, that's just

425
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Speaker 1: who you like best this week, but I didn't need

426
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Speaker 1: the rush to grab that right now. If I'm making

427
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Speaker 1: an early pick, like I would rather pick right before

428
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Speaker 1: the game because I'm gonna have my most information, I'm

429
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Speaker 1: gonna have injury updates, I'm gonna have all the stuff.

430
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Speaker 1: Then if I'm picking early, it's like you said, because

431
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Speaker 1: we think this line's not gonna be available later. So

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Speaker 1: I looked at the numbers. I ran my model up

433
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Speaker 1: against the numbers. Hilariously, I had three games on FanDuel

434
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 1: that caught my eye. Here as games that were like

435
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: two or three points below at my number where and

436
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,199
Speaker 1: spots where it might move past the key number. And

437
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 1: I say hilariously because they're all featuring the same team.

438
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 1: So the three that caught my attention are all Eagles games,

439
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,959
Speaker 1: and they are all betting on the Eagles versus whoever

440
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,680
Speaker 1: they'd play the next round, which I think makes sense

441
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 1: because the Eagles to play the next round would have

442
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 1: just had to beat the Packers, who I think is

443
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 1: a very good competition for them, and a win that

444
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 1: people would take seriously and maybe bump their lineup a

445
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 1: little bit. And Eagles possibly will play either the Rams

446
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 1: or the Vikings. That's an extra rest game, and it

447
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 1: might be an especially extra rest game. Dots and the

448
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 1: prayers to what's happening on in Los Angeles, So we

449
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 1: don't know if that game might get moved or might

450
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: be in sort of bad era, or what's happening with

451
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 1: that one. We'll talk about that on Sunday night. But

452
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 1: Eagles against the Rams is minus six and a half.

453
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,360
Speaker 1: So if that one jumps, that hits past the key

454
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 1: number Eagles vikings Mice three and a half. Not such

455
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 1: a big deal in that one. Eagles bocks minus five

456
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 1: and a half, that's another one where if it moves

457
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 1: at all, we're crossing the key number there. So all

458
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 1: three of those games, I have like two or three

459
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: points more to the Eagles, So that would be my

460
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 1: pick right now is just Philly to win. And also

461
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,199
Speaker 1: because I think another thing to look at is I'm

462
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 1: a little tenuous on Philly right now and green Bay

463
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 1: because the quarterback injuries. But if the Eagles are playing

464
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 1: next week, presumably Jalen Hurts must have played this week. Otherwise,

465
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 1: I didn't think Tanner murkeiy took care of the Packers,

466
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 1: so I guess I have to assume the health got

467
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 1: them to the game and feel better than I maybe

468
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 1: do right now as well, So I like any of

469
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 1: the Eagles plays for next week? What got your attention?

470
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: Just two unders? I do think that Baltimore Buffalo fifty

471
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: two and a half is just kind of intriguing. It

472
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 2: might close higher, so maybe it doesn't even follow my

473
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 2: own advice, but they're both top five in rush percentage,

474
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 2: and it was kind of the angle I was looking

475
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 2: for in these playoff games. It just they're usually a

476
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 2: different style than the free flowing regular season. And then

477
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 2: then the other one again this would be indoors, but

478
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 2: Detroit in the Rams it's fifty three and a half.

479
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 2: It closed at fifty four when we saw this game

480
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,679
Speaker 2: last time, and it was a twenty six to twenty final.

481
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 2: And the thing that most would surprise most people, you're

482
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 2: getting Montgomery back and Detroit is also seventh and rush percentage,

483
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 2: So as much as they do throw the ball if

484
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 2: they get a lead, I do see that game kind

485
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 2: of slowing down more and Kyraen Williams getting literally a

486
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: trillion carries and then kind of switching it up a

487
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 2: little bit. So those are the two I looked at.

488
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 2: But to me trying to get ahead of some of

489
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: these things, because again this and correct me if I'm

490
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,679
Speaker 2: wrong this market, you're getting your money back if the

491
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 2: matchup doesn't happen, So I mean you're you're basically taking

492
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 2: a shot.

493
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, you bet all three Eagles games, You're only you're

494
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 1: getting guaranteed a refund on two of them. But when

495
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 1: the games are over, because you can only get one

496
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 1: Eagles matchup, you might get all three. If the Eagles lose,

497
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 1: you don't lose the bet. You just didn't make any

498
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 1: of those bets because these matchups are never happening now. So,

499
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 1: by the way, the Rams Lions twenty six twenty was overtime,

500
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,199
Speaker 1: I think, so really the total forty in regulation so

501
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:57,439
Speaker 1: way below that number.

502
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and be careful with a lot of these markets

503
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 2: and read the fine print because some of them you're

504
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 2: getting your money back, and some of these bets, like

505
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 2: betting a touchdown to the Super Bowl is actually action,

506
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 2: so please make sure you read that. All right, best

507
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: bets time, This is your best bet Chargers Texans. The

508
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 2: only thing I found interesting here, which kind of just

509
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 2: lit up in my bet lab systems, was the fact

510
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 2: that the Chargers are playing the third straight road game.

511
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,360
Speaker 2: Those teams are thirty nine percent straight up since two

512
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,919
Speaker 2: thousand and three and three and six straight up in

513
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 2: the wildcard round, So that is my You know, do

514
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: you feel like they're tired? I mean, they did play

515
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,719
Speaker 2: most of their starters from their last game. Like how

516
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 2: much of an impact that he is has I'm not

517
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,239
Speaker 2: exactly sure, but I found it intriguing. So what are

518
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 2: you thinking with Chargers Texans?

519
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're just going to kind of go through the

520
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,880
Speaker 1: games in order here and kind of hit I'll try

521
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 1: to give at least where I'm leaning on a side,

522
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 1: even if I'm not playing aside. So this we talked

523
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,640
Speaker 1: about this game already. I took the under forty four

524
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: and a half on the hot read. That's the direction

525
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 1: I'm leaning still too. So let me kind of get

526
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 1: into that. This is the very Shaky's early Saturday field game. Like,

527
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 1: I don't know which team is more this game, the

528
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,439
Speaker 1: Texans or the Chargers, but it's perfect chef's kiss that

529
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 1: they are in this game together. I do think that

530
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: both defenses have the advantage, though, especially as I dug

531
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 1: into it, both pass defenses I think really have the advantage.

532
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 1: Run defense can be beaten, but not by these teams.

533
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 1: The Chargers and especially the Texans, have not run the

534
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: ball successfully this season. The Chargers pass defense has been

535
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 1: really good, I think, especially Jesse Minter with a chance

536
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 1: to prep for this really anemic Texans offense that's been disappointing.

537
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: Chargers have been top five against wide receiver one by DVAWA,

538
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: bottom three against wide receiver two. They're also number one

539
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 1: in the league against the right side of the field,

540
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 1: and I think all that matches really well with Houston.

541
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 2: CJ.

542
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 1: Stroud skews heavily toward the right side of the field,

543
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 1: and the Texans have really one receiver, so if you

544
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 1: can take away Nico, there is no wide receiver two

545
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 1: for Houston right now. They're all injured, so I think

546
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: that works pretty well. Chargers defense also have been way

547
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 1: better on the road this season. They're second in DBA

548
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 1: versus bottom ten at home actually, so Houston's number one

549
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 1: at home, Chargers number two on the road. So a

550
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 1: lot of that sets up for the under Before that

551
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: to two other things that I just think are key

552
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: advantages for the Chargers, I just prefer the coaches for

553
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh has been here. I trust him.

554
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: Dimiko O Ryans. Look, I know I got the Texans

555
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: shirt on Texans Island last year. These are both conservative coaches.

556
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,120
Speaker 1: I do think that helps the under, but I don't

557
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 1: really trust Dimiko and Bobby Slowick and those decisions they're making.

558
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: I think to Houston starts strong, but they fade hard

559
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: in the second half. They're four and thirteen eightys second

560
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 1: half versus thirteen to four first half. Well, the Chargers

561
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 1: also start strong this season, so they can hang then

562
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,360
Speaker 1: when the Texans start to fade, which let's be honest,

563
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 1: it's the Chargers. They may still fade too, that's kind

564
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,919
Speaker 1: of their thing. But I think that sets up well,

565
00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 1: and I do like the Chargers tackles offensively against that

566
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 1: pass rush just to be able to kind of hold

567
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,199
Speaker 1: up on the edge. So under forty two and a half,

568
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: if you didn't get the under forty four and a half,

569
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: I think it's still an okay play. These teams are

570
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: twenty and fourteen to the under combined on the season.

571
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: Houston has had ten games already forty four points are below.

572
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 1: The Chargers have had eleven games already. I mentioned kind

573
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: of their home road splits for the Chargers too. Chargers

574
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: home games are averaging forty six a game, road games

575
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: thirty seven a game, so pretty big disparity where their

576
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: defense is showing up. I think that fits the Jim

577
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: Harbaugh thing. Okay, we're on the road, it's a tougher environment,

578
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 1: let's shut it down, let's play defense, let's just grind

579
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: it out and get the win. I do think both

580
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: offenses are a little bit fraudulent here too. If you

581
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 1: look at just when did you play a top twelve

582
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,360
Speaker 1: DVA defense, Houston averaged sixteen points a game in those

583
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 1: matchups and the Chargers were under twenty. Between them, they

584
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: had twelve games. Only once did either team score better

585
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: than twenty three points. So I think we're getting like

586
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: a twenty to sixteen twenty one nineteen sort of game here.

587
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 1: So I will start out the way we started last time,

588
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: under forty two and a half Houston and the Chargers.

589
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: You can play that with a quick slip. Haven't mentioned

590
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: that at the top. Just click the link right there

591
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: in the podcast around the video and also in the

592
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: podcast link. It just pops it right in. The pick

593
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 1: is right there for you. So under forty two and

594
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 1: a half.

595
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is interesting. We have two Dome games in

596
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 2: the wild card weekend with Monday night football Rams and

597
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 2: the Vikings and then this game. But a difference of

598
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 2: like five or six points in the total. So I

599
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,479
Speaker 2: think it's probably telling you something. And we like this

600
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 2: at forty four and a half. So makes sense here,

601
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: all right? Next game, Steelers and the Ravens. So listen

602
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 2: from from Pittsburgh's point of view. I mean, Mike Tomlins

603
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 2: played five coached five playoff games. He is zero to

604
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 2: five straight up, four and one against the spread as

605
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 2: a dog of three plus points. Now, no, say Flowers,

606
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 2: that news came out today. Lots of different angles to

607
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 2: take here. But to me, what do you think about

608
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 2: the Flowers news and your bet here?

609
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Flowers news was expected largely, so

610
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:08,719
Speaker 1: I guess it didn't really shake me a lot. Can

611
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 1: I talk about this already when the games happen on Sunday.

612
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: I think it's a lost because Pittsburgh's corners are not

613
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: great here in Baltimore. I think it takes away some

614
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: of their explosion down the field. I also have never

615
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 1: been the biggest believer in Jay Flowers. I know we

616
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 1: just made the Pro Bowl. But like, I'm not exactly

617
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 1: putting him in like Nico Collins Territory or someone like

618
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: that sort of receiver. He's good, but I think that

619
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: this is a Lamar Jackson the systems type thing more

620
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 1: than is as Flowers thing. They need him back in

621
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: future rounds. I'm not that worried in this matchup. I

622
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: know all the stuff we talked about in this matchup

623
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: every time, all the Steelers Ravens and the Rah rah

624
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 1: and all that, I just don't think it applies here.

625
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: I think the postseason a different thing altogether. So we

626
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: start with the under. I took the under forty seven

627
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: and a half on the look ahead down to forty

628
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: three and a half. Now I don't need to touch

629
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 1: that anymore, but we know that that's the direction these

630
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: games usually go. I don't feel bad about that because

631
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's offense is just gonna have a really hard time

632
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: scoring here. You had a question for possible for us

633
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: in our rundown of just Pittsburgh's team total, will it

634
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: go over under sixteen and a half. Pittsburgh has faced

635
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: a top twelve defense six times. They're averaging fifteen points

636
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 1: a game. They've yet the top twenty, and they also

637
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: yet the top twenty in each of the last four games.

638
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: So Baltimore's defense back half of the season number two

639
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: by Dboa. I think that they will take care of things.

640
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: And as far as like the Raw Raw Tomlin matchup

641
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: rivalry stuff, first of all, this doesn't even really fit

642
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 1: the Raw ra trend for me. I know they're underdogs,

643
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: but that trend for me is better at home. They're

644
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: on the road after a big loss, they just lost

645
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: by two, and as underdogs of seven or less. None

646
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: of those things fit here. And you had the stat

647
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 1: in your article Tomlin three and fourteen straight up as

648
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 1: a touchdown underdog or whorst. He's also failed to cover

649
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 1: and lost five straight playoff games. And as far as

650
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: the Steelers not showing up against great defenses, the Ravens have,

651
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: the Ravens have been quite tested this season. They're averaging

652
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: twenty eight points a game, thirty or more points and

653
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: five out of eight games against top defenses. Against playoff teams,

654
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 1: they've been really good. And Pittsburgh especially has been terrible early,

655
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 1: especially in the first quarter. Because I just see a

656
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 1: lot of versions of this game that match to one

657
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: we saw a few weeks ago where kind of gets ugly,

658
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: gets away quickly. So here's the bet Ravens minus nine

659
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: and a half, and then we're taking the Ravens escalator. Hella,

660
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: my numbers don't get here. I make this minus four

661
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: and a half for the Ravens. I should be hammering

662
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I just don't think that that necessarily can

663
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: just blind trust your model here. You gotta trust what

664
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: your eyes are seeing, and mayas are seeing a team

665
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 1: that's already in the postseason or are already in the offseason.

666
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 1: For the Steelers. Lamar Jackson sixty nine percent cover rate

667
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 1: against teams better than five hundred and eighty percent cover

668
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 1: rate in cold weather forty degrees are below. Lots of

669
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: trends here, like the Ravens wild card rematch home teams

670
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 1: that won the last year by fourteen or more seventy

671
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 1: three percent ATS. We just had that game a few

672
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: weeks ago, and then wild card favorites at home of

673
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 1: nine or more points ten and one ATS. Average margin

674
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 1: in those games is seventeen points a game, median seventeen

675
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: and a half points a game. Baltimore this season has

676
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 1: played wins for seventeen, twenty one, twenty five, twenty five,

677
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: twenty nine, and thirty one point wins already for those

678
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: Wigans playoff teams. Baltimore is crushing teams at times. So

679
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: I think you want Baltimore big here. If you look

680
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh just the way that they are losing in

681
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 1: recent years. I don't believe I have the number in

682
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: front of me here, but when they lose under Tomlin,

683
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: it's often been not pretty as well. So escalator is

684
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: Ravens minus fifteen and a half is plus one ninety,

685
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 1: minus twenty and a half, plus three forty two, and

686
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: all the way to the top minus twenty seven and

687
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 1: a half a twenty eight point Ravens win plus eight hundred.

688
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: I think that we might get a real blowout here.

689
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 2: You know, we're all jumping on back of the raven

690
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 2: and flying through the escalator. Understood the interesting thing? I mean, listen,

691
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 2: you're just looking for Baltimore from the regular season to

692
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 2: show up. I mean, Lamar is twenty and five straight

693
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 2: up in night games, oh to two in night games

694
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. All you're asking for is for the

695
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 2: regular season loose. I mean, this is a game Baltimore

696
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 2: should absolutely dominate if looking at their resume and their

697
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 2: portfolio from this season, but some people are just looking

698
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 2: at the playoff stuff and saying, well, this is the

699
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 2: Lamar we usually get, So we will see what happens there.

700
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 2: The other thing I thought was interesting. It sounds like

701
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 2: Arthur Smith really wants to start justin fields in this game.

702
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 2: If you listen to some of the things he said

703
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 2: this week, that just can't be good for mojo there.

704
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens on Saturday night. All right,

705
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 2: hit me up what you got.

706
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: So this is the one we had from last week,

707
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. I'm playing the first touchdown on Derek Henry again.

708
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 1: We did not hit it last week. We hit one

709
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 1: hundred and two. I don't like the hundred yards and

710
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: two touchdowns as much this week, just because the odds

711
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: are pretty short, because they're expected to win by so

712
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: much this week, but similar logic to last week. Last week,

713
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 1: they're playing Cleveland and I was like, well, Cleveland's barely

714
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 1: even going to score. That makes first touchdown more valuable

715
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: because Baltimore is probably going to get the first touchdown

716
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 1: as they did last week. Henry had seven first touchdowns

717
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: this season, two more than any other player in the league.

718
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh can't score seven touchdowns and seventeen games first touchdown,

719
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 1: that's almost half of them. So plus three fifty for

720
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry first touchdown if you're into the touchdown bets,

721
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 1: and if you want, you can go with the big

722
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: one here and this is in your quick slip. Henry

723
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 1: first touchdown ravens minus fifteen and a half. So just

724
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: rumble into the end zone, big guy, get up early

725
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: in coast. That one's plus eight twenty four at FANDOL.

726
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wonder if there's like a Derrick Henry first

727
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 2: touchdown in over first quarter yards or something like that,

728
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 2: and you can put together like he just breaks one

729
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 2: early and kind of cashes your ticket. Could be a

730
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: fun option. All right, Denver and Buffalo. We are on

731
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: to Sunday now. So the stat you see everywhere, which

732
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 2: everyone has tweeted out, but really starts with this game.

733
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 2: Quarterbacks making their first playoffs start versus quarterbacks with experience.

734
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 2: They are nineteen and thirty eight straight up, nineteen thirty

735
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 2: seven and one against the spread since two thousand and two.

736
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: And the road isn't Grady they're eleven and twenty one

737
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 2: twelve nineteen and one against the spread. That is bon Nick's,

738
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 2: Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold. It starts with bon next year

739
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 2: in this game. So what are your thoughts on Denver Buffalo?

740
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, we know what I think about Denver Buffalo. I

741
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 1: was on Buffalo minus seven and a half. I still

742
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: love this at minus eight and a half. This is

743
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: just a mismatch in every way. I think this Denver

744
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: team is fraudulent, to be totally honest. So here's the

745
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 1: case why Denver has really only one true win over

746
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 1: playoff team this season. That was the Bucks early in

747
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 1: the year before we thought the Bucks were a playoff team.

748
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,760
Speaker 1: Denver against ten win teams and I am not counting

749
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 1: Kansas City last week. That was not a ten win

750
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 1: Kansas City team. Ten win teams, they're one in six

751
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: this season. So the offense, we know Denver's offense is

752
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 1: the weak link on the field. Boon Nicks on the

753
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: road playoff debut, I had the same stat you just said,

754
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,439
Speaker 1: Denver when they've played a top twelve defense this year.

755
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 1: You're gonna me keep quoting that because I think that's

756
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 1: a good way to narrow down the stats here, they've

757
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 1: averaged fifteen and a half points a game. Boonix has

758
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 1: been way worse this year trailing. His QB rating goes down,

759
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,959
Speaker 1: his interceptions go up. His numbers have been pretty good

760
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 1: in games where they're out ahead of teams. This is

761
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 1: the Bills all on the road has huge favorites. This

762
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: is not the script you want for rookie quarterback. More importantly,

763
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 1: I think this defense is significantly worse than people have

764
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,240
Speaker 1: let on about them. Before a Sunday, which again didn't

765
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 1: count preseason game. Their defense the last six weeks was

766
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 1: fourteenth by DVA. The defense has been way better this

767
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 1: year protecting leads. They've been number one in the second half.

768
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 1: They're outside the top ten in the first half. So

769
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 1: that to me is a front running sort of defense.

770
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: That makes sense with Vance Joseph. They're bringing the pressure.

771
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 1: They're leaving Patrick's utan out in Ireland. That's great defense there.

772
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 1: That's not what you're going to get in this game.

773
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 1: They're also really good early downs. Buffalo has been great

774
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 1: on third downs, d Josh Allen, that's why you want

775
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 1: to start back Denver's league average on third downs. I

776
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 1: think there are a lot of metrics here, boosted by

777
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:11,280
Speaker 1: playing bad quarterbacks and bad teams win. Denver's defense faced

778
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: a top twelve offense five times this season. They allowed

779
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: almost twenty nine points a game, including a thirty, a

780
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 1: thirty four, and a forty one. Real quarterbacks have cooked

781
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 1: this defense, and I think that that's what's going to

782
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 1: happen this game. So very similar to bet to what

783
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: I just did with the Ravens Bill's eight and a

784
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: half and the Escalator home favorites of nine or more.

785
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,439
Speaker 1: I just gave you that stat seven Seeds are only

786
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 1: one win all time. That's what Denver is here. They

787
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: usually lose by a couple scores. Again, we talked with

788
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: this at the top Wildcard round. We've had wins on

789
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 1: average by fourteen and a half points a game, medium

790
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 1: sixteen points a game. That's why I want these Escalators.

791
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: I think between Baltimore and Buffalo, one or both of

792
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 1: these games become big blowouts. The quarterback debut versus experienced

793
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: stat I had him here as well. Home playoff teams

794
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 1: like Buffalo facing a team that did not make the

795
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 1: playoffs last year. This round twenty two ten and one

796
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,919
Speaker 1: ats sixty nine percent so Bill's minus eight and a half,

797
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 1: and then here's the escalator. You can get all these

798
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 1: in your quick slip. Minus fifteen and a half is

799
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 1: plus two fifteen. That's basically shooting for that kind of

800
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 1: average wildcard around margin of victory. And then twenty four

801
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 1: points are better is plus five twenty and the big

802
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 1: one minus thirty one and a half the ultimate bon

803
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:32,879
Speaker 1: Nicks disrespect plus thirteen hundred for Buffalo. Addink the Bills role.

804
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 1: I will be planning to other things on my middle

805
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 1: of my early Sunday afternoon because I don't think we're

806
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,320
Speaker 1: gonna have to watch this one too close.

807
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I'm curious about Denver's defensive schemes a

808
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 2: little bit here with the fact that Buffalo doesn't have

809
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 2: like a true number one wide receiver with Theirtan out there,

810
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 2: so like, who you know how that works in terms

811
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 2: of how they guard the receivers, try to stop Buffalo

812
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 2: worry about Alan. Seems like a lot going on, and

813
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 2: I think I believe you in terms of that Denver defense.

814
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:01,439
Speaker 2: I know you of one more prop here, So what's

815
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 2: the prop you also like in this one?

816
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, if you if you want some Denver materially here.

817
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: I'll give you a Denver bet. I can't believe I'm

818
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 1: here on this. I don't even know. I've thought about

819
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 1: this player the entire season. I'm taking Javonte Williams receiving yards.

820
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: I'm taking some over escalators here. So what brought me here?

821
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: Buffalo this season allowed the most receptions and yards and

822
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:26,399
Speaker 1: touchdowns receiving two running backs. This is by design. They

823
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: are a zone heavy defense. They're designed to limit big

824
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 1: plays that leaves the checkdown underneath stuff. Holy cal bow

825
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 1: Knicks just heard the word checkdown somewhere like sat up

826
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: and got excited for the weekend. That's my man's game.

827
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,879
Speaker 1: Buffalo has allowed ten running backs the season at least

828
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 1: four catches. They've allowed six of them to hit fifty yards.

829
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 1: So why Javonte Williams, Because I know McLaughlin's been on

830
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: the field more lately. Estimate has been running lately. Javanti

831
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: Williams I think will be on the field because of

832
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 1: his experience and mostly because of his past flocking. You'll

833
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: got PFF grading. McLaughlin is a terrible past blocker. Twenty

834
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 1: seven grade s Tom fifty three Johntay Williams is a

835
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 1: sixty eighth grade. That's actually a strength for his And

836
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,840
Speaker 1: if you looked by his snaps, his run snaps have plummeted.

837
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: He is not running the ball anymore. He's not out

838
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 1: there in run situations. His passing snaps are still solid

839
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: about twenty five a game. They've not really tailed off

840
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: at all. So I think Javanta Williams in a game

841
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 1: where I expect very past script heavy for Denver trailing

842
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,359
Speaker 1: all game, I think Javante is on the field a lot.

843
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 1: He's at least two catches all but two games a season,

844
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 1: twenty three receiving yards in half of them twenty eight

845
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 1: or more than seven of them. So I don't really

846
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 1: want too much invest in Javanta Williams because who knows

847
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 1: about this dude in Denver. So if I'm gonna play it,

848
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play aggressively. Here's the two plays. Thirty yards

849
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 1: are more receiving plus three twenty fifty yards or more

850
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,439
Speaker 1: is twelve to one. That seems crazy, but he's had

851
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 1: three games a season with forty eight fifty and fifty yards.

852
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 1: And if we get a game where Denver is trailing

853
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,800
Speaker 1: all game and just checking it down, repeatedly to that

854
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,760
Speaker 1: running back protecting the blitz getting out on the flat.

855
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 1: I think Gavant Williams could just like seven ugly catches

856
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 1: forty five fifty yards and we got a shot at

857
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: a long one twelve to one there.

858
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, the two coaches with the biggest dog houses have

859
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 2: to be Peyton and McVeigh, and so at any point

860
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: one of the running backs could enter the doghouse and

861
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 2: Javonte can be getting more snaps. Now, it could be

862
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 2: Javonte that enters the doghouse, but this is kind of

863
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,280
Speaker 2: the way you gamble here, And I think you mentioned

864
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 2: one thing that's really crucial. It's the pass blocking. Like

865
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 2: at some point, yeah, you're gonna want to get Sma

866
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 2: McLoughlin carries. Javonte is probably not gonna get carries in

867
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 2: this one, but if you're behind there just probably isn't

868
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 2: as much of a need and it should get him

869
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 2: on the field more often. Next game here, Packers Eagles.

870
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 2: The one stat I'm gonna toss you here. And I

871
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 2: found this interesting because I know we've talked a while

872
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 2: about Eagles kind of blowing games and that being a

873
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 2: part of something we've talked about in the past. It

874
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 2: is interesting the fact that under Sirianni, Philly twenty four

875
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 2: and two straight up seventeen seven and two as a

876
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 2: home favorite when leading by seven plus points at any

877
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 2: point in the game pretty good. When the opponent is

878
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 2: above five hundred, they're fourteen and oh straight up twelve

879
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 2: and two against the spread, so they're not blowing leads

880
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: and Hurts we're making the assumption is going to be

881
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 2: out there and everything looks good. I know Aj Brown

882
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 2: did in practice today, but that's just in anticipation to

883
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 2: make sure he's one hundred percent, and the other one

884
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 2: just leading at any point in the game. Sirianni's fifty

885
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 2: to twenty minimum twenty games as a coach, that's a

886
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 2: third best since he entered the league with Andy Reid

887
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,760
Speaker 2: and Sean McDermott. So obviously that's Mahomes and Josh Allen,

888
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 2: but Sirianni and Hurts done a pretty good job themselves.

889
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 2: So I found that intriguing. But go into it. I

890
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 2: know this one is a little bit deeper than the

891
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 2: other ones because there's a lot going on here, So

892
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 2: talk to me.

893
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, This to me is the game by far them

894
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 1: most interested in this weekend. Unfortunately, it's also the game

895
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: right now that I'm most uncertain, because we still do

896
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:54,399
Speaker 1: really know about Jalen Hurts or Jordan Love to talk

897
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 1: about Jalen Hurts. He's not cleared yet. I expect he

898
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 1: will be. Jordan Love kind of some weird stuff from

899
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 1: him practicing too. We saw him kind of bang the

900
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 1: hand and the elbow, some weird non answers there. There's

901
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: a real chance. I hope we get a great game here,

902
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 1: but there's a real chance one of these quarterbacks just

903
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 1: isn't himself or even doesn't get to finish the game here.

904
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,720
Speaker 1: So I think you have to be careful about betting

905
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 1: specifically things in this game. Other reasons too. They're just

906
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 1: some unknowns here more than I expected. The Packers defense

907
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 1: has really good metrics this season, but are they real?

908
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 1: Do they really show up against top competition here? They've

909
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 1: been terrible covering middle of the field, but the Eagles

910
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 1: do not like to attack middle of the field. That's

911
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 1: not a Jalen Hurts place he lives. Packers have the

912
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 1: fourth most turnovers for US. Eagles don't turn over much,

913
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 1: So what happens if you're not getting those big play turnovers.

914
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 1: Xavier McKinney was getting like one every game for a while.

915
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 1: What if they're not there? On the flip side, Eagles

916
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: offense weirdly might be the weak link out of the

917
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 1: units in this game, especially the passing attack. So can

918
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 1: they attack the Packers over the middle. Can they attack

919
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 1: the Packers in the red zone where they've been pretty

920
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 1: bad against the past, but so have the Eagles, So

921
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 1: a lot of unknown where it could kind of go

922
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 1: either way there. Packers against playoff teams two and five,

923
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: Eagles five and two, So that should be advantage Eagles.

924
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 1: That's why they're clearly favored here. But a key thing

925
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 1: too that I think will be really interesting here, strength

926
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 1: to schedule is hugely different between these two teams. Packers

927
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:22,800
Speaker 1: played one of the hardest strength of schedules all season

928
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:25,800
Speaker 1: and actually had a pretty low variance by their games.

929
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 1: That's good. This team was really good all year and

930
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 1: they were consistently good, not variant against the really good teams.

931
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,760
Speaker 1: Philadelphia had one of the softest schedules, though you're including

932
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 1: the absolute easiest schedule for their defense, and we've raved

933
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 1: about how good the defense has been, But who have

934
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: they played and have they been able to match up

935
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:47,319
Speaker 1: against a team like the Packers, who I know they

936
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,879
Speaker 1: played in Week one, but very different teams for both

937
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 1: of these two. So I'm gonna end up playing mostly

938
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 1: props here. We'll get into those shortly. If you want

939
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 1: just something on a side or total here, if I

940
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 1: had to, I would Packers on the money line plus

941
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 1: one ninety five only because I just can't make the

942
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,399
Speaker 1: Packers a two to one underdog. I think they're too

943
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,360
Speaker 1: good of a team to say you're a two to

944
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,399
Speaker 1: one dog. I prefer to invest in who I think

945
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 1: is gonna win futures. We gave out Eagles plus three

946
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 1: fifty to win the NFC. If you like Eagles here,

947
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 1: that odds get way better there. Jordan love super MVP

948
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,839
Speaker 1: thirty six to one if you like the Packers, So

949
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: to me, taking the team you like later into the

950
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: playoffs is the one that I want here. I think

951
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 1: I might want whoever wins this game as my NFC pick.

952
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 1: I didn't want them playing each other here, but it

953
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: does buy some value. So before I get into the

954
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,240
Speaker 1: props that I like as my main way of play here,

955
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 1: do you have a side or way that you'd be

956
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,320
Speaker 1: leaning on Packers Eagles here.

957
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 2: I make the game four so it's kind of I mean,

958
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 2: and there's just so many unknowns in this one that

959
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: I just am really hard to know what's going on.

960
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 2: I think both coaches are giving you a lot of

961
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 2: fake looks beyond because I think they know that this

962
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 2: one is really tight. I think they know that the

963
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:06,879
Speaker 2: first time they played it was also super tight. And

964
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,760
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot we don't know entering this one.

965
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 2: So in terms of like a side, I'm not necessarily

966
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 2: wanting to lay with Philadelphia. So I do agree with

967
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 2: you that if I was forced to do anything, I

968
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 2: think i'd probably lean on the Green Bay side. But

969
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 2: I do think the prop markets, as long as everyone plays,

970
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 2: is a little more predictive.

971
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. So here, I've got three props for

972
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 1: you all on receiving yards in this game. So first

973
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,240
Speaker 1: of all, I'll start with Saquon Barkley. These are all overs.

974
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 1: You know, I love to play my overs on props

975
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 1: usually they're just more fun that way. Let's have a

976
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:46,880
Speaker 1: little fun as betters. The Packers allow the second most

977
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 1: rate receptions running backs on the season. That's that bad

978
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 1: middle of the field thing. Coming through a little bet.

979
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley has had at least two catches twelve out

980
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 1: of sixteen games, so you can bet the over one

981
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 1: and a half receptions if you want. That's minus one seventy.

982
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:01,720
Speaker 1: Not my style, but he's probably gonna hit that one.

983
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 1: I'd rather play the yards because if he gets a

984
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,800
Speaker 1: couple of catches, it's Saquon Barkley. He can chunk yards

985
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 1: in a hurry. Even with one catch, he can bust

986
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 1: out for a long one. Get a running back, We'll

987
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,320
Speaker 1: route up the sideline something like that. So receiving yards

988
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: give me the over eleven and a half. He's at

989
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 1: at least nine receiving yards eleven out of sixteen game,

990
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: so almost three fourths of them he's ad twenty yards

991
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 1: are better six times, forty yards are better three times.

992
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take the escalator on Saquon over eleven

993
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 1: and a half, and then twenty yards are better at

994
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 1: plus two ten forty or better at plus eight point fifty.

995
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 1: I think that's one way that they can really attack

996
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 1: the weakness of the Packers. And I know Philadelphia temps

997
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,319
Speaker 1: to just do what they do, but I'm kind of

998
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 1: playing attacking weaknesses here because my other two here are

999
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 1: zone beaters. I want zone beater receivers. So let me

1000
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: start with Philadelphia's and that's DeVante Smith. Part of the

1001
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,560
Speaker 1: thing here in this game that makes me a little

1002
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 1: queasy about Philadelphia is EPA man versus zone. Both of

1003
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: these teams are going to play a lot of zone.

1004
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 1: Both these teams are elite against the deep pass. They're

1005
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 1: going to try to make you earn it slowly down

1006
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 1: the field. Jalen Hurts is number three EPA per play

1007
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 1: against man coverage. He's number twenty two against zone. That's

1008
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 1: not great for this matchup. Jordan Loves the opposite Jordan

1009
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 1: Love is top five zone, number thirty one against man.

1010
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 1: So why is Jalen hurt so good against man?

1011
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 2: AJ?

1012
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 1: Brown usually is the answer. AJ Brown is the number

1013
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 1: one receiver against man by PFF grade on the season

1014
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 1: against zone, it's DeVante. That's his guy, who's just frankly

1015
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:34,320
Speaker 1: not as good as AJ Brown. A really good receiver,

1016
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: but not what Ager Brown is. So on the season

1017
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 1: against zone, AJ Brown one less target than DeVante forty

1018
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,280
Speaker 1: eight to forty nine, but thirty three catches to forty

1019
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,720
Speaker 1: two for DeVante. That's the route running. That's DeVante finding

1020
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:50,360
Speaker 1: the spot on the zone and making himself open and

1021
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: available against the Packers in the opener, seven catches eighty

1022
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:57,239
Speaker 1: four yards led the Eagles in receptions in that one

1023
00:47:57,600 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 1: against this sort of zone defense. So I look that

1024
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: over five and a half receptions, that's a good number there.

1025
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 1: But I actually going to end up playing the yards

1026
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 1: here because in games where DeVante has had six catches

1027
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 1: over half of his games this year, he's averaging eighty

1028
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 1: six yards a game in that one, So over fifty

1029
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 1: nine and a half, I got a huge margin for

1030
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:20,399
Speaker 1: error in there, rather than just one catch either way.

1031
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 1: And I could still go over this one even if

1032
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 1: I'm wrong about the receptions. Just give me like one

1033
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:27,360
Speaker 1: long play. He's gone over that two of the games

1034
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 1: where he didn't have six plus receptions, So no escalator

1035
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:33,800
Speaker 1: here on DeVante. Will kind of get to a different

1036
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 1: version of that in a second, but over fifty nine

1037
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 1: and a half yards And then last one, Jaden red

1038
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 1: is Green Bay zone buster. This was one of our

1039
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 1: big hits earlier this year against Minnesota. He has been horrid,

1040
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:49,839
Speaker 1: horrible against Man. He's great against zone eighty two grade

1041
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 1: against zone, forty three grade against man. Almost all of

1042
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 1: his production has been against zone, including and the opener

1043
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 1: against the Eagles four catches, one hundred and thirty four yards,

1044
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,399
Speaker 1: and the Eagles, for all the things they've done well,

1045
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 1: have not been great against wide receiver one by Dva.

1046
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 1: So again with Jaden and Reid, He's faded a little

1047
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 1: bit down the stretch here, but I think it's a

1048
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 1: good matchup for him. No direct escalator on him, but

1049
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,799
Speaker 1: over forty three and a half yards for him, just

1050
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 1: the basic over so Read's over forty three and a half,

1051
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 1: DeVante over fifty nine and a half, Sakue over eleven

1052
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 1: and a half, and then his escalators, and I've got

1053
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 1: two other versions of an escalator here that we'll get to.

1054
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 1: But any thoughts on those three guys.

1055
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 2: I like where you're headed. The one bet I was

1056
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: thinking of as well with Jaden Reid, which I actually

1057
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 2: don't see posted yet, is I kind of want to

1058
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:40,479
Speaker 2: taste of some rushing. I feel like without Watson, they're

1059
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 2: going to do a lot of different mix ups to

1060
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 2: try to get the ball down field, and I do

1061
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 2: feel like Reid's going to be involved in a lot

1062
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 2: of stuff because I think they're kind of out of options,

1063
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 2: and that's kind of what they need to be doing

1064
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 2: in this one. It's the reason I like Wix to

1065
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 2: score a touchdown. It's the reason why I'm looking for

1066
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 2: red rushing. I just feel like Lafleur is going to

1067
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:02,399
Speaker 2: try to try stuff, So I like the read thing

1068
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 2: is just it's a little scary because there's games and

1069
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 2: we've seen it before where he's just gone yeah, like

1070
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 2: he disappears from the game plan. I just don't think

1071
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 2: Green Bay can afford it. I just don't think they

1072
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 2: have the weapons to ignore him. So I'm with you

1073
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:18,839
Speaker 2: on that page. I know you got two more. Let's

1074
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 2: roll it through.

1075
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, So the last one here, this is the quick

1076
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 1: slip for this game. If you just like all three

1077
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: of those overs, the read over yards, DeVante overyards, Saquon overyards,

1078
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,400
Speaker 1: you can just parlay those three together. It's basically a

1079
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 1: five to one plus four ninety five at DraftKings. That's

1080
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 1: the quick slip available. I prefer doing it a little

1081
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:37,879
Speaker 1: bit more creative. If you want to do it this way,

1082
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:40,439
Speaker 1: you can bet the most receiving yards in the game

1083
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: angle Davante Smith is plus three eighty. Jane Reid is

1084
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:47,200
Speaker 1: plus down fifty. Saquon Barkley very unlikely to do this,

1085
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: but he's one hundred and forty to one. He's not

1086
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty to one unlikely to do it.

1087
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: So if you play all three of those together, you

1088
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 1: the math on the odds, you're basically betting any one

1089
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: of those three at about plus two hundred implied. I

1090
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 1: think God should be more like minus two hundred. I

1091
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:04,799
Speaker 1: think these three combined are because of the matchups, because

1092
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:07,839
Speaker 1: of what's available, very likely to lead this. Obviously, aj

1093
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 1: Brown looms large here as the obvious threat, and really, frankly,

1094
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: the tight ends on both teams could get some yards too.

1095
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 1: But I think we might get like a seventy five

1096
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 1: eighty yards for one of these guys leads the game here.

1097
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:22,360
Speaker 1: And that's why I didn't play the escalators on the receivers.

1098
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 1: I don't need the eighty to one hundred yard thing

1099
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 1: that probably leads the game anyways, and I can get

1100
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 1: this here without having to hit a huge number. So

1101
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 1: I really like that all three guys, or if you

1102
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:34,320
Speaker 1: don't want to get Saquon or don't have that crazy

1103
00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 1: number available, DeVante and Janea Reed both to lead in yards.

1104
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 1: Obviously only one can hit, but I like the way

1105
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:41,919
Speaker 1: the odds stack up for us there.

1106
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good long shot bet to kind of

1107
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 2: take because you're either going to get something or a

1108
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:49,280
Speaker 2: lot from reader basically nothing. And also Saque probably shouldn't

1109
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:50,759
Speaker 2: be one hundred and fifty to one to basically do

1110
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:54,319
Speaker 2: anything at this point in the season. All right, last

1111
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:57,720
Speaker 2: game on the schedule here, so Washington and the Bucks.

1112
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 2: Now we're gonna do Vikings Rams on our Sunday night

1113
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 2: recap pod, which we could talk about in a second.

1114
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:06,359
Speaker 2: But Washington and Tampa Bay. I mean, this is the

1115
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:09,280
Speaker 2: highest spread on the board, got I mean the highest

1116
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 2: total on the board. You got a bunch of defenses

1117
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 2: that have parts, but I feel I can be very

1118
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 2: easily beat. And you have two quarterbacks who are either

1119
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:21,280
Speaker 2: running it downfield at an elite level or Baker passing

1120
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 2: it downfield the best he has in his career. So

1121
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,879
Speaker 2: I do think I see the path to the over.

1122
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,720
Speaker 2: But it is an interesting Nonetheless, that is the highest total.

1123
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:31,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted to do a total here, but man,

1124
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 1: there's just a lot of points looking at between these teams.

1125
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 1: Both defenses have been improving the last six weeks, but

1126
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:40,920
Speaker 1: against not great competition. We'll see it, yeah, because this

1127
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:43,919
Speaker 1: is pretty good competition. These have been the number six

1128
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 1: and number seven offenses on the season by DVAA. I

1129
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 1: ranked all the offenses before the season. I don't know

1130
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 1: what I have these two teams, but I promise you

1131
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 1: was not six or seventh. It was outside of the

1132
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 1: top twenty. I would guess two of the biggest surprises

1133
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 1: on the season not the defense. The defense have not

1134
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 1: been surprising. So yeah, I think we're gonna get a

1135
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 1: high scoring game. I think it's the hight scoring game

1136
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:06,800
Speaker 1: of the weekend. I saw someone suggesting me Washington highest

1137
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 1: scoring team of the weekend. If you like Washington, I

1138
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 1: think that's a good creative way to bet them here.

1139
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:13,959
Speaker 1: I also think this could be a back and forth

1140
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 1: sort of game. If you're alive better, I think you

1141
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 1: might be able to just bet one side that's the underdog.

1142
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 1: Then they take the lead and you bet the other

1143
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 1: side the underdog, and you're out. You can just rest easy,

1144
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 1: take the money lines, and just come out ahead whichever

1145
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 1: team comes out. Especially because here's some of the numbers

1146
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 1: box second half thirteen and four against the spread, Washington

1147
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 1: first half ten and seven against the spread. Washington's way

1148
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:40,240
Speaker 1: better defensively early, Bucks are way better defensively late. Box

1149
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:43,880
Speaker 1: offense top five in the first quarter, Bucks defense bottom

1150
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 1: five in the second quarter, Washington offense top five on

1151
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:49,399
Speaker 1: the second quarter. So I just think we're gonna get

1152
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 1: high variants. We got a rookie quarterback, we got Baker,

1153
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:55,880
Speaker 1: We're gonna get a back and forth game. All that said,

1154
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,280
Speaker 1: this is the one game I'm just picking a straight

1155
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 1: spread on Bocks minus three. And to me, I think

1156
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 1: the injury report actually looms pretty large here. Antoine Winfield

1157
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 1: back is a really big news for Tampa Bay. He's

1158
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:11,319
Speaker 1: been not great this season, but really important to them

1159
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 1: for a second year that's been pretty awful, and for

1160
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 1: safety is that everybody's been injured. So I think that's

1161
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 1: a huge swing, not just one player, but the way

1162
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 1: he organizes that defense and gets them going. So him

1163
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 1: on the field. And then Washington, Tyler Biadish and Cornelius Lucas,

1164
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:29,400
Speaker 1: two of their linemen are both limited still and that

1165
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:33,280
Speaker 1: offensive line got reworked this year was pretty good early

1166
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:35,760
Speaker 1: and it's really struggled late. We've talked about Jane Daniels

1167
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 1: eating a lot of sacks down the stretch. So to me,

1168
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 1: those injuries combined with Marshall Lattimore is still kind of

1169
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,240
Speaker 1: a question mark. That is about a zero point seven

1170
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 1: points move towards the spread, and we're sitting right at three.

1171
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:50,239
Speaker 1: That puts the Bucks closer to four for me rather

1172
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 1: than the other direction below the key number. So that's

1173
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 1: why I like this one. I think Bucky Irving can

1174
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 1: get some running game test the Washington defense. And then Frankly,

1175
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 1: I just trust the Bucks Moore here. They're four and

1176
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 1: three against playoff teams. Washington is one and four Washington

1177
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:07,320
Speaker 1: against top ten offenses this year. Their defense is allowed

1178
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:10,240
Speaker 1: thirty three points a game. That's gonna be tough here.

1179
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: And then Frankly gott to have his name in here.

1180
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 1: I don't trust Cliff Kingsbury. Give me Lillam Cullen over

1181
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:20,320
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury and give me Todd Wooleves defense against Cliff Kingsbury.

1182
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:22,600
Speaker 1: And then some of the trends we've talked about already

1183
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:26,080
Speaker 1: fit here as well. That experienced quarterback against a debut quarterback,

1184
00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 1: sixty six percent ats home playoff team against a non

1185
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 1: playoff team from last year sixty nine percent ats home

1186
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 1: rematch these teams played Week one, Tampa Bay won convincingly

1187
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 1: thirty seven to twenty. Teams that won by fourteen or

1188
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 1: more rematch at home seventy three percent ATS. To me,

1189
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:46,000
Speaker 1: this is just the best trend spot of the weekend.

1190
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 1: So Bucks minus three and because I love my escalators,

1191
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 1: we mentioned kind of the back and forth nature. If

1192
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 1: you think Washington hangs around Washington first half Bucks full

1193
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 1: time plus six to twelve, I think is a bad

1194
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 1: number for game that could go back and forth a lot.

1195
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:03,880
Speaker 1: So I've got one property to close this out. But

1196
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 1: that's my one main side here Sunday night. I think

1197
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 1: it should be a fun one.

1198
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:09,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, you absolutely nailed some of the bets I was

1199
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 2: thinking of, because this is the one I mean, I

1200
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 2: said earlier I liked Washington, so this would be the

1201
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:18,040
Speaker 2: one side I really felt comfortable betting an underdog pregame,

1202
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,440
Speaker 2: assuming I was going to get the other side as

1203
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 2: the underdog live. And this is probably the game I

1204
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 2: feel the most confident in that end. But I think

1205
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:29,240
Speaker 2: the other example would be Chargers Texans with that same

1206
00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:31,799
Speaker 2: kind of line, and I don't feel as comfortable in

1207
00:56:31,840 --> 00:56:33,680
Speaker 2: that game as I do with this one, So I

1208
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:35,759
Speaker 2: do like the live on both sides. I think you

1209
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 2: could play that Washington full game. I'm Washington first half

1210
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:41,839
Speaker 2: Tampa full game, but also do first quarter. I think

1211
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 2: there's probably a few ways to probably do that. Interesting enough,

1212
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 2: the last rookie to win a road game in the

1213
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 2: playoffs was russ in twenty thirteen, twenty twelve, twenty thirteen,

1214
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 2: And overall, they're five and fourteen straight up on the

1215
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 2: road in the playoffs in nineteen ninety so not great there.

1216
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 2: I believe they've lost seven in a row. I think

1217
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 2: Jaden's a little bit differ. But the one thing I

1218
00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:03,920
Speaker 2: will say is in terms of exactly your prop here,

1219
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 2: I do think there's an avenue because of the lineman,

1220
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 2: and I do think missing the lineman or having injured

1221
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 2: lineman or inexperienced lineman will lead to your prop. So

1222
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 2: give it away.

1223
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking for Jane Daniels rushing over his here.

1224
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,920
Speaker 1: So we're taking the escalator because I think Jane Daniels,

1225
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 1: the one thing we've seen from him even coming into

1226
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 1: the NFL, the book on him was he scrambles too much.

1227
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 1: He scrambles too often, He's gonna get blown up in

1228
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 1: the NFL. We hasn't gotten blown up. He's blown up

1229
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:33,919
Speaker 1: the NFL instead. But I think that we've seen by

1230
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 1: the numbers he tucks the ball in the runs way

1231
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 1: too often, still without hanging in the pocket. He's gonna

1232
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 1: get better at that over the time. But in this game,

1233
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:46,400
Speaker 1: Washington's failing offensive line against Todd Bowles. What's top Bowles

1234
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:48,480
Speaker 1: gonna do is gonna bring the blitz, for sure. We

1235
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 1: know that's what he does. So here we have pressure

1236
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 1: coming at Jane Daniels. What does he do? He tucks

1237
00:57:54,080 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 1: the ball in the runs and frankly does a pretty

1238
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:58,440
Speaker 1: good job of it too, So I think you want

1239
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 1: him on the ground here we saw already in the opener.

1240
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:06,120
Speaker 1: Washington played Tampa Bay, the first game off Jane Daniels' career.

1241
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 1: What happened, He got pressured, he tucked the ball in

1242
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: a run. He had sixteen carries for eighty eight yards

1243
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 1: and two scores in that game. The Bucks have allowed

1244
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:17,480
Speaker 1: the top three most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They allowed

1245
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 1: the second most quarterback rushing touchdowns. It's not just Daniels.

1246
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:23,959
Speaker 1: Bow Knicks a couple weeks after, Daniels nine carries forty

1247
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:27,320
Speaker 1: seven yards and a touchdown. Jalen Hurts ran eight times,

1248
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 1: got a touchdown. Lamar Jackson nine rushes fifty two yards.

1249
00:58:31,320 --> 00:58:34,240
Speaker 1: So the lines I think cut onto this a little bit.

1250
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 1: Eight and a half attempts forty eight and a half yards.

1251
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:39,080
Speaker 1: I was like, ah, darn it, that's like about where

1252
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 1: I thought these maybe should be. So as always, that

1253
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 1: doesn't scare me away. That just makes me be more aggressive.

1254
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:47,480
Speaker 1: So here's the escalator. A couple different ways to be

1255
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 1: creative here. I'll take the over forty eight and a

1256
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:51,760
Speaker 1: half rushing yards. I think that's about the right line,

1257
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 1: but I think you can do that. That's at fandual minus

1258
00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:57,760
Speaker 1: one fourteen eighty yards or more plus four thirty that's

1259
00:58:57,800 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 1: in your quick slip if you want those two on

1260
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:02,880
Speaker 1: the yard. I also like a touchdown here that's obviously

1261
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:05,280
Speaker 1: a rushing or receiving touchdown. We'll take how we get it,

1262
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 1: but I like that for him, memory did that twice

1263
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:11,040
Speaker 1: in the first matchup, plus one eighty five on the touchdown.

1264
00:59:11,480 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 1: And then a little bit of a long shot here

1265
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 1: fifteen attempts or more is fourteen to one again. He

1266
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:20,160
Speaker 1: had sixteen against them in the opener. He had sixteen

1267
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:23,040
Speaker 1: to one other game as well, week sixteen against the Falcons.

1268
00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:25,560
Speaker 1: That kind of a playoff setting when it's all on

1269
00:59:25,560 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 1: the line. What are you going to do when it's

1270
00:59:27,520 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 1: on the line. For Jane Daniels, he runs and in

1271
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 1: case you're right about Washington winning, we'll take a couple

1272
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 1: of meals at the end and get over our rushing attempts.

1273
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:36,680
Speaker 1: See however we got to get there, We'll take it.

1274
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:39,439
Speaker 1: Jane Daniels rushing escalator to close us out.

1275
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 2: I like it. Again. I just feel like he's going

1276
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 2: more than bon Nicks in that situation. This is going

1277
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 2: to be a tighter game. He's going to feel the

1278
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 2: need to run the ball down the field. I think

1279
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 2: Eckler and Robinson at at times can be fine, but

1280
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:57,240
Speaker 2: also I can completely see them changing the game plan

1281
00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 2: and kind of going just it with Daniels all out here,

1282
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 2: Which is the reason why some of those props we

1283
01:00:01,560 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 2: talked about earlier I thought had some value to it

1284
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 2: from a Washington point of view if you liked them

1285
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 2: in this game. The other one is Eckler's definitely gonna

1286
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 2: throw him a touchdown. I can see that happening already,

1287
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:13,240
Speaker 2: Eckler to Jayden Daniels. That's how you catch the bet,

1288
01:00:13,280 --> 01:00:16,800
Speaker 2: all right. Moving on here, So Minnesota and the Rams,

1289
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 2: we are going to do that recap on the Sunday

1290
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 2: Night Pod, which we and Brandon do every week. So

1291
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:24,080
Speaker 2: we will talk about that game. We will break it

1292
01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 2: down just like we did here, and that's it. That

1293
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:28,840
Speaker 2: is the pod. So we have given you best bets

1294
01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:31,440
Speaker 2: for all five of the Wildcard games leading up to

1295
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 2: that Monday nighter. We've talked about futures in the first

1296
01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 2: podcast in terms of Super Bowl and Conference. This one

1297
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:39,320
Speaker 2: we kind of went through all the props in different avenues.

1298
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:43,200
Speaker 2: So this has been the wild Card Weekend Best Bets episode.

1299
01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:46,040
Speaker 2: Do not forget to download the free, award winning Action

1300
01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 2: Network app to see more from all of our Action

1301
01:00:48,600 --> 01:00:51,480
Speaker 2: Network contributors. Plus you can track your own picks. Also

1302
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 2: check out the Action Network discord chop it up with

1303
01:00:54,640 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 2: our experts. I'm in there, Nick Giffin's in there, Sean

1304
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 2: Kerner's in there. We're all hanging out chat during games.

1305
01:01:01,160 --> 01:01:03,400
Speaker 2: So there's a link to join in the description of

1306
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:05,680
Speaker 2: this podcast. Plus, if you want to tell some of

1307
01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 2: the bets we gave out today Again, make sure to

1308
01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:11,680
Speaker 2: check out the description for the quick slip links. We'll

1309
01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:14,880
Speaker 2: be back Sunday night for the recap pod. Thanks for listening,

1310
01:01:15,240 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 2: Good luck with all your bets this week, and enjoy

1311
01:01:17,560 --> 01:01:19,800
Speaker 2: five days in football Paradise.

1312
01:01:20,000 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 3: See you letter everybody.

1313
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1314
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:44,360
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1315
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:47,520
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler