1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketchas live weekdays at noon 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: and five pm. E's durn on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 2: Joe and I of course are tracking the developments when 7 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: it comes to the war with Iran, which is still 8 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 2: continuing on day twenty six, Israel and the US continuing 9 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 2: to strike targets and around Iran, Iran continuing its retaliatory 10 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 2: strikes really all throughout the Gulf. Despite the fact that 11 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 2: the President is pushing for a deal, says Iran wants 12 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 2: the same, that there may be a diplomatic offramp that 13 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 2: is being pursued here by the US at least, though 14 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 2: Iran right now is rejecting the US's fifteen point plan 15 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 2: that it initially put forward. And of course the President 16 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 2: still maintains that even as he looks for a deal 17 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 2: to end this war, the war itself is already won. 18 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 2: This is what he said yesterday. 19 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 3: We've won this with this war has been won. They 20 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 3: have no navy left, they have no air Force left. 21 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 3: They have no anti aircraft equipment left, no radar left, 22 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 3: no leaders left. The leaders are all gone. Nobody knows 23 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 3: who to talk to, But we're actually talking to the 24 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 3: right people, and they want to make a deal so badly. 25 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 4: That has been challenged by the rhetoric that we've been 26 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 4: hearing from Iran pushing back on the fifteen point plan 27 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 4: and in fact suggesting conditions of its own, including the 28 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 4: closure of all American bases in the Gulf, the payment 29 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 4: of reparations for missile attacks against Iran, and the lifting 30 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 4: of all existing sanctions. It does not sound like we're 31 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 4: getting closer to a deal, but that's why we have 32 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 4: Adam Ferrer to talk to a true expert here, Bloomberg 33 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 4: Economics senior geoeconomics analyst. Adam is great to see you back. 34 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 4: The last twenty four hours have been very confusing for 35 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 4: a lot of people. Should the markets be optimistic the 36 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 4: way they appear to be feeling today, So it. 37 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 5: Certainly seems that the markets are moving on the vibes 38 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 5: of the President and the President alone, notwithstanding the fact 39 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 5: that it is probably unfair to judge exclusively on how 40 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 5: the Iranians are responding publicly to these conversations tell us one, 41 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 5: because the reality is the Runians have a lot of 42 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 5: constituencies they have to handle, and particularly with a hard 43 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 5: line leadership that is taking control, they have to be 44 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 5: very careful as to how they articulate the next steps 45 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 5: in this conflict. On one hand, we're absolutely right in 46 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 5: this narrative we've talked about here at Bloomberg. A lot 47 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 5: is that the Iranians feel more empowered now than they 48 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 5: have at any point during the war. They feel like 49 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,679 Speaker 5: the pressure is building on the United States, not on them. 50 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 5: They're still taking a lot of hits, but that the 51 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 5: energy consequences of the Strait of Hormus remaining closed will 52 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 5: hurt the United States and our partners globally more than Iran. 53 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 5: That said, they are taking a lot of hits, right, 54 00:02:56,040 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 5: Iran is getting battered by an ongoing air campaign that 55 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 5: has not led up, as you said in the intro, 56 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 5: and so there are reasons for them to want to 57 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 5: bring this to a close on their own timeline. And 58 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 5: even though they know over the last forty eight hours 59 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 5: we had them saying we're not talking, we're not even engaging, 60 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 5: there are now indications that someone is talking right, and 61 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 5: it does look like there was some element of showing 62 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 5: they were talking to the right people with the administration 63 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,679 Speaker 5: by allowing one vessel through the straight of horror moves 64 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 5: yesterday again trying to start this conversation. But the proof 65 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 5: will be if substantive conversations really move forward in this conversation. 66 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 5: Now about maybe jd Vance leading a US delegation about 67 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 5: to Pakistan, I guess. 68 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, the President suggesting Advance, Witcoff, Kushner, Rubio, they were 69 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 2: all be involved in these conversations. If the conversations ultimately 70 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 2: direct ones even happen. I also wonder, Adam about the 71 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 2: increased build up and assets we are seeing once again 72 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: while this diplomatic path apparently is being pursued. This is 73 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 2: what happened before the initial strikes we saw in amassing 74 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: forces in the Middle East. The second Aircraft Strike Group 75 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 2: Carriers tri Group was on the way as they were 76 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 2: talking in Geneva. Now you have thousands more troops headed 77 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 2: to the region as they're supposedly looking at talking or 78 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 2: at least pushing for talks. Why would ron buy that 79 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 2: a second time? 80 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 5: So I think there's no doubt that they view it 81 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 5: the way you just described, and the reality is that 82 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 5: the war has not stopped as we've said, and that 83 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 5: the United States now has the better part of eight 84 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 5: thousand plus ground troops that are moving into the region 85 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 5: with the announcement of elements of the eighty second Airborne 86 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 5: that could be arriving in the coming days and weeks. 87 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,919 Speaker 5: But the question here it is a little different, is 88 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 5: that the risks of implementing a ground invasion are so 89 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 5: much higher, both militarily and politically for the administration that 90 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 5: it probably is a different category than what we saw 91 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 5: with the build up of aviation assets and naval assets 92 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 5: in the lead up to the initial engagement. That doesn't 93 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 5: mean it's off the table, right I think the President 94 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 5: is willing to escalate to theoretically force the Iranians to 95 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 5: de escalate, But the choice there is. 96 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,679 Speaker 6: Much more dark than dropping bombs from Afar. 97 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 4: Interesting we've set ourselves up then, for I guess a 98 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 4: pretty important deadline after the closing bell on Friday. 99 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 6: Should the market be holding its breadth at that point. 100 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 5: Well, certainly not sure if the five days or the 101 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 5: deadline we really need to be looking at within that timeline, 102 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 5: we do get theoretically the arrival of that first marine 103 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 5: contingent from Japan, but the remainder of that force, both 104 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 5: the eighty second Airborne and the other marines, won't arrive 105 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 5: for a much longer period of time, maybe several weeks. 106 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 5: So it's certainly possible the administration could take some sort 107 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 5: of limited ground incursion, as we said, in carg Island 108 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 5: or another part of the Gulf. But in and of itself, 109 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 5: I'm not sure the five days is make or break. 110 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 5: I think more importantly, the President will probably be hoping 111 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 5: that it moves away from a conversation of the United 112 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 5: States bombing energy infrastructure, which he seems to have decided not. 113 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 6: To do, at least for now. 114 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 2: Adam Fair, thank you so much for joining us Bloomberg 115 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,799 Speaker 2: Economics senior geoeconomics analysts here with us in our Washington, 116 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 2: d C. Studio. But we go now to Capitol Hill 117 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 2: where we're joined by Republican Congressman Marlon Stutsman of Indiana's 118 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 2: third District. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Congressman, 119 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 2: appreciate you joining us, and I'm sure you heard part 120 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 2: of our conversation there with Adam. Despite the President's pursuit 121 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,280 Speaker 2: of a deal. This war is still ongoing, and that 122 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 2: means that we are still spending money in the Middle East, 123 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 2: which raises the specter once again of a potential supplemental 124 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 2: funding request. I know that that has not yet been received, 125 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 2: but considering you sit on the Budget Committee, I'm wondering 126 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 2: if it is your expectation, your base case, that it 127 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,600 Speaker 2: will just be a simple, simple supplemental or ultimately if 128 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 2: this is going to be folded into a wider budget 129 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: reconciliation process. 130 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 7: Yeah. 131 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 8: Kaylee, great to be with you, and Joe, thanks for 132 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 8: having me. But yeah, that great question. As we've been 133 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 8: talking here on the Hill, it looks like the number 134 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 8: is going to be around that two hundred billion dollar number, 135 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 8: and there's the ability to offset that. More than likely 136 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 8: it probably is done through a reconciliation package. That's what 137 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 8: I'm pushing for. That's what I'm working with colleagues on 138 00:06:56,320 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 8: the Budget Committee to do. That would require only fifty 139 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 8: one votes in the Senate under a reconciliation process. That way, 140 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 8: we don't have to worry about what we're seeing right 141 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 8: now with DHS not being funded because of the filibuster rule. 142 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 8: But this is obviously a critical moment as assessments are 143 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 8: being done. Of course, the work that our men and 144 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 8: women did with through the air and from our ships 145 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 8: in the region did a remarkable job. 146 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 6: But knowing now what's happening. 147 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 8: Next with a transition and who is going to transition 148 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 8: to does make a big difference to all of us. 149 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 8: And so we're really watching and waiting to see how 150 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 8: President Trump and the team is a team handle the 151 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 8: negotiations going forward. 152 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 4: What are you hearing from voters in your state, Congressman, 153 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 4: I'm looking at triple a here, three dollars ninety eight 154 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 4: cents a gallon Nationally, you're above four dollars on average 155 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 4: in the state of Indiana. How many weeks can people 156 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 4: take of this? 157 00:07:58,520 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 9: Yeah? 158 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 8: I mean, you know, it obviously affects people immediately. I mean, 159 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 8: you know, we all kind of gauge our economic attitude 160 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 8: by the gas pump. You know, my boys are calling 161 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 8: me up and saying, Dad, gas is you know up 162 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 8: because of this? But I think, you know, as I 163 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 8: explained to people, and most people understand the threat that 164 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 8: Iran has been for four decades, that this is hopefully 165 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 8: the beginning of the end of their proxies in the 166 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 8: Middle East and the disruptions that they cause. Of course, 167 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 8: their ability. They have a lot of money. I mean 168 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 8: the oil and gas that comes out of Iran is substantial. 169 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 8: I mean, this regime has their hands on you know, 170 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 8: billions and billions of dollars that they can sustain this 171 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 8: for some time. But I think that you know, as 172 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 8: I was talking to a friend whose family is still 173 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 8: in Iran, she said that, you know, many of the 174 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 8: people that are there are hesitant to go out in 175 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:53,959 Speaker 8: the streets because of what they saw a couple of 176 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 8: months ago with the protests where the IRGC just simply 177 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 8: went out and killed you know, anywhere between thirty and 178 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 8: fifty thousand people. So they're really hopeful that something comes, 179 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 8: somebody comes in with some sort of ability to defend 180 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 8: them and themselves, to take out the i ERGC and 181 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 8: the regime that's there. So there's obviously still a lot 182 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 8: of hope on both sides that the iergc's days are numbered, 183 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 8: that the Iatola, of course, the senior Ietolas is dead, 184 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 8: but who's in charge now still remains to be seen. 185 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 2: Well, as your boys call you about gas prices, I 186 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 2: also what you're hearing. I wonder what you're hearing Congressman 187 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 2: from other constituents like those that maybe in the agricultural sectors. 188 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: We consider all SOO fertilizer the wider economic impacts of 189 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 2: how high diesel prices specifically are when we think about 190 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 2: goods being moved throughout the country. Whose voices on that 191 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 2: are the loudest right now? 192 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, agriculture, I mean, it has been difficult for 193 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 8: several years now, and you know, this does cause a 194 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 8: course disruption. Most fertilizers would he have been pre purchased 195 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 8: or they would have had the prices locked in diesel prices. 196 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 8: Some may not depending on their financial situation, but you know, 197 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 8: a lot of the larger operations would have a lot 198 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 8: of that already placed for pricing. But it does have 199 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 8: an effect, There's no doubt about it. And that's why 200 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 8: I you know, I know President Trump is very aware 201 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 8: of that. We have of course shared our concerns about 202 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 8: a long term conflict that would cause prices to stay up. 203 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 8: But I think that at the same time, and you know, 204 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 8: the AD community has been so supportive of President Trump, 205 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 8: but this does cause issues, especially coming off of a 206 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 8: couple of tough years. So you know, I know that 207 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 8: President Trump is aware, he's already made is having conversations 208 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,839 Speaker 8: with China. They're obviously the biggest beneficiary of the oil 209 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 8: and gas that comes out of that particular region, along 210 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 8: with other countries. His conversations with India are really critically important. 211 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 8: And so I think you know a month from now, 212 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 8: a lot is going to change. As you stated earlier 213 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:58,959 Speaker 8: that the markets seem to be reacting more positively, and 214 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 8: I think that's just simply the instability is starting to 215 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 8: move out of the market and some sort of end 216 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 8: is hopefully in sight. Obviously, if things change, the markets 217 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 8: will go the other direction. 218 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 6: Quickly, and they will tell us loudly. 219 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 4: I'm sure, Congressman, I have to ask you about the 220 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 4: Department of Homeland Security. I believe we are now on 221 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 4: day thirty nine of the DHS shut down, and there 222 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 4: was a lot of optimism yesterday about a deal that 223 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 4: seems to have come crashing down, with Senate Democrats saying 224 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 4: that they just haven't seen the reforms at ICE that 225 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 4: they need to see to vote yes. This idea of 226 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 4: siphoning off ICE funding is apparently not going to be happening, 227 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 4: and funding the rest of DHS. We talked to your 228 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 4: colleague from Massachusetts, the Democrat Jake Auchincloss about the offers 229 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 4: that have been on the table gave us a sense 230 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 4: of how far apart everyone is. 231 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 6: Congressman, here's what he said. 232 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 10: It is totally unacceptable for our TSA agents to be 233 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 10: working on FADE and Democrats are ready to fund TSA today. 234 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 10: Number two, the claim from the Senate Majority leader that 235 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 10: somehow ICE is on onto just as not true. Last 236 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 10: year they put through on a party line vote, seventy 237 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 10: five billion dollars of funding for ICE over four years. Finally, 238 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 10: the impediment is absolutely not Democrats' willingness to look at 239 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 10: this deal. The impediment is that the President said that 240 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,559 Speaker 10: he's only willing to look at a deal if it's 241 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 10: paired with the Save Act, which is a voter suppression measure. 242 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,679 Speaker 4: I realized that that Save Act might be moving to reconciliation, 243 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 4: but so too might ICE funding. Congressman, would you support 244 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 4: knowing that ICE is funded, funding the rest of DHS 245 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 4: and getting TSA workers paid. 246 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 8: Absolutely, And I think that you know there's a there's 247 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 8: obviously the debate with the Save America Act in the 248 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 8: Senate right now, but that does not have to be 249 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 8: paired with funding DHS. The House of Representatives, Republican controlled 250 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 8: and led by Speaker Mike Johnson, we send over funding 251 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 8: for DHS alone, separate from the Save America Act, so 252 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 8: these two could be handled separately. By conflict, the conversation, 253 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:03,839 Speaker 8: it is what's confusing to people, and so I think 254 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 8: that we have to be straight up with the American 255 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 8: people that these can be handled separately. And you know, 256 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 8: we're already starting to see that the President had some 257 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 8: success by using ICE agents out at the airports that 258 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 8: helped get those lines through, and my suspicion is that 259 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 8: he'll continue to do so. We're just not going to 260 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 8: bend on some of the reforms are the so called 261 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 8: reforms that the Democrats want the ICE agents to be 262 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 8: held by. And I think that the Democrats as sooner 263 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 8: we get just an agreement made on funding DHS, then 264 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 8: we can go back and continue to talk about the 265 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 8: way ICE. ICE is behaving much better and much differently 266 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 8: than what it was about three months ago. So I 267 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 8: would hope that they would realize that the administration made 268 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 8: some really critical changes to be sure that we didn't 269 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 8: see more problems like we saw up in Minnesota. 270 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 2: And finally Congressman as the President of course, initially wanted 271 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 2: the Save America Act included in the push. Now there's 272 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,839 Speaker 2: talk of getting some of those components into future budget reconciliation. 273 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 2: I know you're not the Senate parliamentarian, but how do 274 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 2: you make that budgetary? What could that actually look like? 275 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 8: Well, with the Save America Act, you have the policy language, 276 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 8: but then there would also be funding pieces that would 277 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 8: go along with that, and so, you know, I'm hopeful 278 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 8: there's some smart attorneys over on the Senate side working 279 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 8: for Senate Republicans that would put those pieces together. And 280 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 8: that's oftentimes what happens is that there's maybe enforcement dollars 281 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 8: that is assigned to a particular policy. Maybe the policy 282 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 8: language isn't clear, but the money would follow those particular 283 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 8: actions if the states decided to do so. So I 284 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 8: think there's a way to do, you know, at least 285 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 8: the funding portion. If the parliamentarian didn't like the policy language, 286 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 8: I think we could still get there. But you know, 287 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 8: the Senate again, you know, moving around the filibuster rule. 288 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 8: Could that's the Save America Act as it stands by itself, 289 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 8: as well as the DHS funding so that's something that 290 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 8: Senate leadership needs to realize that that's how they're going 291 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 8: to have to get some of these things done. 292 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 6: Wow. Interesting. 293 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 4: Speaking to us from his perch on the Financial Services 294 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 4: and Budget Committees in the House of Representatives, Congressman Marlon Stutsman, 295 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 4: Republican from Indiana's third We thank you for the insights. 296 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 4: We'll assemble our panel for their take on all of this. 297 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 298 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 4: more coming up after this. 299 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 300 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 301 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 302 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 303 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 304 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 2: Equity marketers are in the green today and oil prices 305 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 2: are lower. 306 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 6: Yeah. 307 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 4: Seeing oil prices drop seems to be kind of the 308 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 4: underpinning hero. Seeing interest rates come back a little bit 309 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 4: as well, with news that Iran is allowing some I 310 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 4: guess quote unquote friendly vessels through. As they've been calling this, 311 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 4: they I actually have developed some sort of controlling mechanism 312 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 4: to get an isolated number of ships through the Strait 313 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 4: of Hormuz that does not include those with Western interests. 314 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 4: But just seeing that movement in the global market seems 315 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 4: to be making the energy market feel a bit better 316 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 4: when you combine that with a fifteen point plan. Realizing 317 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 4: it's been rejected at first, Kayleetlee, I guess they see 318 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 4: some path to progress here, and it's what we want 319 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 4: to get into with our political panel joining us today, 320 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategist Rick Davis. He's our 321 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 4: partner at Stone Court Capital and Democratic strategist Arshi Sidiki 322 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 4: bell Weather government affairs. It's great to see you both, Rick, 323 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 4: Do you share the optimism of the markets here? There's 324 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 4: a lot of noise right now, and of course, what 325 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 4: Iaran is saying publicly, as Adam Ferrer remind us, is 326 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 4: not likely what is being said to the White House? 327 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 6: What should we be focused on? 328 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, look, I mean I think the number one thing 329 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 7: is off ramp right. This administration is clearly looking for 330 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 7: an from the current status of the war, and that 331 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,439 Speaker 7: means that this could lead to a process, and a 332 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 7: process could lead to a ceasefire or even a cessation 333 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 7: of hostilities and that would all be good for the markets, 334 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:18,159 Speaker 7: I would think. And even this move by Iran to 335 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 7: show some willingness to take the pressure off of the 336 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 7: oil shipments out of the Gulf of Horn Moose probably 337 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 7: mostly benefiting China. But the reality is it's a move 338 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:32,120 Speaker 7: in the right direction to loosen up the control, open 339 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 7: up the straight and it allows some traffic. Means a 340 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 7: step in the right direction. And even though there's a 341 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 7: lot of confusion out there about who's talking to who, 342 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 7: the pakistanis, the Egyptians, you know, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kirshner, 343 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 7: Which Iranian official are they talking to? Who's still alive today? 344 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 7: I think it all portends a change in this war. 345 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 7: I would say the wild card is whether or not 346 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 7: we see the president and be being at Yahoo basically 347 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 7: escalate to de escalate. The President calling up ground troops 348 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 7: into the region, that's an escalatory event, beaving that, you know, 349 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 7: telling is military we got two days, let's destroy everything 350 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:12,959 Speaker 7: we can get our hands on. 351 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 6: That's escalatory. 352 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 7: So right now you don't see a lull in the 353 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 7: war fighting, but you clearly see a strategy developing amongst 354 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 7: Israel in the. 355 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 2: Us well on the notion of ground troops Archie, what 356 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 2: would that opt optically the perception around this war? How 357 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 2: would that change things ultimately if we suddenly are seeing 358 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 2: images of paratroopers or literal boots on the ground on 359 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 2: Iranian soil. 360 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 11: The challenge for Democrats is that even though there was 361 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 11: clearly no contingency planning, there was no consultation with our allies, 362 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 11: no consultation with Congress, is that they are also in 363 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 11: the same boat in terms of wanting to maximize outcomes. 364 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 11: So and the States just keep on getting higher. I 365 00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,719 Speaker 11: means as Rick was talking, I mean this war has 366 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,679 Speaker 11: taken on a life of its own. So when you 367 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 11: get to the billions of dollars being spent and now 368 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:09,120 Speaker 11: American lives at stake, I think this goes on hyperdrive. 369 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 11: And the challenges is there a clear off ramp and 370 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 11: any deal or negotiation that needs to be based on facts, 371 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,919 Speaker 11: not any sort of face saving exercise. 372 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 4: Rick, A lot of folks have wondered if the president 373 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 4: would bring ground troops into theater if he didn't plan 374 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 4: to use them, And the idea of seizing carg Island, 375 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 4: for instance, has leveraged to open the strait is something 376 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 4: that he has apparently been considering and something he could 377 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 4: do as soon as this weekend when that original batch 378 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,679 Speaker 4: of Marines arrive from Japan. Is that what you see 379 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 4: playing out here, the diplomacy backed by a show of 380 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 4: military force. 381 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:47,959 Speaker 6: I think that's a key thing. 382 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:52,160 Speaker 7: Joe's You're only credible in your threats to invade if 383 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 7: you have an invasion force. And the President's threats about 384 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 7: a bombing campaign in a we're backed up by a 385 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:07,439 Speaker 7: massive armada and shift of weaponry, jets and other things 386 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 7: into the region. So if he wanted to use them, 387 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 7: they were there, and I'd say the same goes for 388 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 7: the boots on the ground. I got to believe it's 389 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,679 Speaker 7: the last option. It's not a good negotiating strategy. You 390 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 7: put boots on the ground, you're gonna have body bags 391 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 7: coming back. President is highly sensitive to public reaction to this. 392 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 7: There's not a lot of public support for this. 393 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:29,719 Speaker 6: War as it is. 394 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 11: Now. 395 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 7: You start seeing body bags come through Dover in a 396 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 7: scale that we haven't seen, you're going to see a 397 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 7: deterioration of that public support what's left of it. So 398 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 7: it is something I think the President considers and I 399 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 7: think as a negotiating tactic, You're only as good as 400 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 7: the bargaining ships you have on the table. And right now, 401 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,199 Speaker 7: if he wants to claim that he's going to go 402 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 7: in and get you know, carg Island or secure the uranium, 403 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:00,439 Speaker 7: then he's got to have the troops to it. And 404 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 7: I think that if anything is an important mobilization strategy. 405 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,640 Speaker 2: It's a fair point. And obviously none of us want 406 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,199 Speaker 2: to see more American casualties, are she if there is 407 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 2: a diplomatic off ramp to avoid that. I also want 408 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 2: to talk about the kind of cast of characters that 409 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 2: is going to be pursuing it, because it is yes 410 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 2: the envoys Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner who seemed to 411 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 2: be involved in any kind of negotiation. We have also 412 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 2: the Secretary of State Mark Rubio and Vice President J. 413 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,120 Speaker 2: D Vance, who we understand is one of the more 414 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 2: skeptical voices around this, even though he is supporting what 415 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 2: the President is pursuing here, Historically he has been very 416 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 2: against the US getting more involved in the Middle East. 417 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 2: I wonder what you make of him having now potentially 418 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,439 Speaker 2: an outsized role in the way that this moves forward. 419 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 11: R She Well, it's particularly interesting because he's been a 420 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 11: bit mia recently, right, I mean, we haven't seen a 421 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 11: lot of him since the started. And the President also 422 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 11: made some comments about who was his clear successor, which 423 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 11: I think suddenly the Vice president actually did reappear and 424 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 11: re emerge. But it does add it does show the 425 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 11: complexity of this debate within the Republican Party in terms 426 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 11: of what this means. 427 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 6: So I think we will see. 428 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 11: But this is very fluid, as you well know, and 429 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,400 Speaker 11: it's not clear who's quite negotiating, and there's a lot 430 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 11: of there's a lot of different layers to this in 431 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 11: terms of who will be out front and who will 432 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 11: be but ultimately it all goes back to Trump. 433 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 4: Well, if that's the case, President Trump has a lot 434 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 4: more to be messaging here when it. 435 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 6: Comes to the future of this conflict. 436 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 4: Rick Caroline Levitt decided to add a news briefing that 437 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 4: hasn't started as yet. James, We're waiting for the White 438 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 4: House briefing to begin. How important is it for the 439 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 4: White House to start taking questions from the media and 440 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 4: parsing some of the words that the President has brought. 441 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 4: We've heard everything from this operation is winding down to 442 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 4: we've already won it, to there will be no cease 443 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 4: fire in just the space of a couple of days. 444 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,239 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a little bit head spinning, but it is 445 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 7: standard Donald Trump confusion strategy. I don't think it's accidental. 446 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 7: I think he throws out a lot of different issues, 447 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 7: keeps the press chasing them, and at the same time 448 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 7: confuses his enemies in Tehran. 449 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 6: So this is this is a classic Trump move. 450 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 7: I don't think anybody in the administration wants to get 451 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 7: out there and have to reflect these things, because any 452 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 7: given minute he's going to reverse his own messaging around this. 453 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 7: So kudos to Caroline Levin to being willing to go 454 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 7: out and face the press. That being said, it's a 455 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 7: pretty it's a pretty tame press court at this point 456 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,719 Speaker 7: in the sense that you can't get ahead of this 457 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 7: news cycle. Things are happening so rapidly this week you 458 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 7: think about it, I mean, the massive bombing campaigns, the 459 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 7: movement of troops, the negotiations and foreign countries. You know, 460 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 7: with an unknown set of leaders in Iran, it's it's 461 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 7: enough to keep your head spinning. And so the fact 462 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 7: that the White House wants to start to frame some 463 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 7: of this in the most positive fashion shouldn't surprise anybody. 464 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 2: Well, I guess to Rick's point, with all that noise 465 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 2: out there, are she I do wonder while we are 466 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 2: looking at every single headline and tracking developments as they come, 467 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 2: for the American elector and if they just are aware 468 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,439 Speaker 2: that a war is still ongoing at this point and 469 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 2: their price is at the pump or higher, and that 470 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,480 Speaker 2: is basically the gist of it. 471 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 11: No, I think that juxtaposition is very stark. And when 472 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 11: you look at it, Iran has taken over the entire 473 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,639 Speaker 11: entire news coverage and in daily lives. Americans are dealing 474 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,239 Speaker 11: and I think that's why we've seen some of these 475 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 11: special elections go this way, because you look at the 476 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 11: economic challenges and this administration, their economic policies have made 477 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 11: things worse, not better. Whether you look at tariffs, whether 478 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 11: you look at now this war and gas prices, whether 479 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 11: you look at the subsidies on the Affordable Care Act 480 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 11: those not being enhanced, subsidies not being extended. So all 481 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,959 Speaker 11: of these things are working together to make things more 482 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 11: challenging for American families, not better. All right. 483 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 2: Archie Sidiki and Rick Davis our Political Panel today. Thank 484 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 2: you so much. 485 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 486 00:24:58,080 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 4: more coming up after this. 487 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 488 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 489 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 490 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 491 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 492 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 4: With the market clearly focused on geopolitics today and for 493 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 4: the better, there does seem to be a string of 494 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 4: optimism as we prepare to spend some time with Christina 495 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,120 Speaker 4: Quino on that. I just want to mention a couple 496 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 4: of headlines that have just crossed from the White House. 497 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,639 Speaker 4: Caroline Levitt just stepped up to the podium in the 498 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,119 Speaker 4: White House Briefing Room, and we do have a meeting 499 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 4: back on the calendar with President She. Trump will travel 500 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:46,880 Speaker 4: to China May fourteenth and fifteenth. According to Caroline Levitt 501 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 4: and Kaylee, it looks like President she is going to 502 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 4: be coming here for President Trump will be hosting She 503 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 4: in Washington, DC at some point later on this year. 504 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 6: We've got another redhead on the terminal. 505 00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, no specifics for that visit yet, but it is 506 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 2: striking to see that this has now been scheduled, knowing 507 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,199 Speaker 2: the reason that it was delayed from the end of 508 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 2: this month, and the first place was because of the 509 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 2: ongoing war and Iran. President Trump said he felt like 510 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 2: he needed to be here as that was ongoing. That 511 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,640 Speaker 2: would signal a certain degree of optimism that the question 512 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,120 Speaker 2: says that this will be wrapped up in time for 513 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 2: this visit mid May. 514 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 4: You wonder if the market interprets it like this as well, 515 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,560 Speaker 4: because there's already been a pretty positive vibe going on 516 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,679 Speaker 4: on the street and we are right near our eyes 517 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 4: of the session. Christina Quino is watching all of this 518 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 4: with us as Bloomberg's managing editor for Markets Live. If 519 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 4: you check out our market's live blog, Christine is the 520 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 4: force behind it, and it looks like it's getting better 521 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 4: all the time. Here Christine, I'm just wondering what is 522 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 4: in trader's minds. Is it simply the fact that energy 523 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,919 Speaker 4: prices are lower, or is there a real optimism that 524 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 4: this war is about to end? 525 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,639 Speaker 12: Yeah, Joe, I mean, I think a lot of the 526 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 12: headlines initially sounded positive and that's what markets were really 527 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,160 Speaker 12: trading off of heading to the US session this morning. 528 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 12: But of course we did get a flurry of pushback 529 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 12: from it run not necessarily indicating that they are open 530 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 12: at this point to a ceasefire. And so yeah, what 531 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,920 Speaker 12: we're really seeing in markets is a lot of headline 532 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 12: based trading. The underlying optimism for a ceasefire is of 533 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 12: course still there. We have markets prediction markets in particular 534 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 12: betting on something happening by the end of this month, 535 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 12: potentially at the earliest. But in the absence of kind 536 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,720 Speaker 12: of clear terms, I think we are stuck in this 537 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 12: sort of very much a headline driven sort of environment, 538 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 12: even though at the moment today anyway, based on the 539 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 12: green on the screen, that mood is optimistic. 540 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,200 Speaker 6: But we'll see how long that lasts. 541 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,159 Speaker 2: So a headline driven environment, Christine, Does that mean pay 542 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 2: no mind to the fundamentals. How are they looking? 543 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:47,880 Speaker 3: Yeah? 544 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 12: Well, Kaylee, very interesting. I mean, we saw of course 545 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 12: data earlier today just a first look at those import 546 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 12: prices and export prices for February before the bulk of 547 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 12: the energy price increase, right, and is already indicating an 548 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 12: inflationary sort of environment. So very interesting because you know, 549 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 12: we are seeing of course an oil shock at the moment, 550 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 12: even though some of the energy prices of course of 551 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,360 Speaker 12: receding a little bit, but the underlying fundamental is actually 552 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 12: also pointing to an inflationary environment. So we'll see whether 553 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 12: that comes to pass and whether markets are in fact 554 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 12: kind of waking up to this idea that beyond oil 555 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,679 Speaker 12: prices there are very real underlying drivers of inflation at 556 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 12: the moment. 557 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 2: All right, Christina Quino, managing editor of Our Market's live blog, 558 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,640 Speaker 2: thank you for joining us from New York. Meantime, here 559 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 2: in Washington, the briefing is underway at the White House. 560 00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 2: The White House Press Secretary Caroline Love and speaking to 561 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 2: reporters now, specifically on negotiations with Iran, which she says 562 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 2: have been in productive talks for the last three days, 563 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 2: that Iran wants to talk, and that President Trump is 564 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 2: willing to listen, that he does not bluff, and Iran 565 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,440 Speaker 2: should not miscalculate, as in her words, Trump will unleash 566 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 2: hell if Iran does not accept defeat. We want to 567 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 2: get into this now with moment. Yakoub and Director and 568 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 2: Senior Advisor of the Middle East Program at the Center 569 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 2: for Strategic and International Studies Mona, Welcome back to Bloomberg 570 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 2: TV and Radio. The White House Press secretary also contended 571 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 2: just moments ago that the Iranian regime is looking for 572 00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 2: an exit ramp, and I wonder if you see Iran 573 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 2: right now as properly incentivized to deal with President Trump. 574 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 9: I don't think yet. I think Iran senses that it 575 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 9: has quite a lot of leverage with its control over 576 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 9: the Strait of Horn moves, and I think Iran is 577 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 9: going to look to use that leverage and extract as 578 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 9: much as it can, even though it has been subject 579 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 9: to these very very significant bombing campaigns. Nonetheless, I think 580 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,120 Speaker 9: Iran still believes that it is in a position in 581 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 9: which it holds some important cards, and it's going to 582 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 9: want to play them. 583 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 4: Caroline Levit' is saying just now that we are very 584 00:29:55,000 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 4: close so meeting the objectives of the Iran operation. There's 585 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,880 Speaker 4: been some confusion about what those objectives are, and if 586 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:09,360 Speaker 4: it's eliminating Iran's nuclear capacity, wouldn't that have to include 587 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 4: the seizing of the highly enriched uranium that is still 588 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:14,000 Speaker 4: on the loose. 589 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 9: Absolutely, there are several questions around Uran's nuclear capabilities and 590 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 9: in particular the disposition of that highly enriched uranium. Now 591 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 9: there's some speculation that the latest deployments, the new deployments 592 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 9: coming in a marine expeditionary unit as well as the 593 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 9: eighty second Air Force Brigade, that they could be involved 594 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:43,080 Speaker 9: in some effort to take control of that uranium on 595 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 9: the ground. But again, that is a highly risky proposition, 596 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 9: hard to know if that's actually what the administration is thinking. 597 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 2: Well, and so when we consider the deployment of more 598 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 2: troops this time around, we keep recalling that several weeks ago, 599 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 2: when before these strikes were launched on February twenty eighth, 600 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:08,959 Speaker 2: there were talks underway between US and Iranian officials and mediators, 601 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 2: even as the US was a massing massive military force 602 00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 2: in theater. Now we're seeing a build up of troops again, 603 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 2: and I wonder how you believe Iran is interpreting that, 604 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 2: if that actually makes them less likely to be negotiating 605 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 2: with the president, because there may have been an erosion 606 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 2: of trust given how this went the first time around. 607 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 9: Absolutely, it's happened twice actually, and Iran is very well 608 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 9: aware of that, or too exactly, And so from Iran's perspective, 609 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:42,080 Speaker 9: like as they say, they've been tricked twice and they 610 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,239 Speaker 9: will not be tricked again, and they've actually noted this 611 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 9: build up in their statements, saying we are watching, we 612 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 9: are seeing your movements, and we will defend our territory 613 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 9: at any price. I don't think you can overestimate just 614 00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 9: how deep this distrust is between the United States and Iran, 615 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 9: and Iran in particular, for example, reportedly refusing to engage 616 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 9: with Steve Whitkoff or Jared Kushner and instead seemingly having 617 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 9: a preference for jd Vance. Of course, we don't know 618 00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 9: if these details are correct, but what we do know 619 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 9: is that there is deep, deep distrust that Iran has, 620 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 9: and that is an obstacle to any sort of successful negotiation. 621 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:29,800 Speaker 4: We know the troops are on the way, Mona Marines 622 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 4: from two separate expeditionary units and members of the eighty 623 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 4: second Airborne who will be arriving starting as soon as 624 00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 4: this Friday, and over at the next couple of weeks. 625 00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 4: We talked about what this means with Democratic Congressman Jake Auchincloss, 626 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 4: a Combat Marine Corps veteran of Massachusetts. He told us 627 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 4: this on the late edition of Balance of Power yesterday. 628 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:54,520 Speaker 10: Listen, what the president is doing right now is he's 629 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,120 Speaker 10: calling nine to one one. He's sending the eighty second Airborne, 630 00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 10: and he's sending two marine expeditionary units to the Strait 631 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 10: of Horror. And the reason he's dialing nine to one 632 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 10: one so frantically is because thus far this war has 633 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 10: been a strategic failure. We have sacrificed a significant strategic 634 00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 10: card to Iran, which is now they have seed denial. 635 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 10: They have demonstrated to the world that they can selectively 636 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 10: allow transit through the straight up fourmouse, through missiles and 637 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 10: mines and droughts. 638 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 6: Not to be confused with a tactical failure. Mona. 639 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:26,920 Speaker 4: If the president's calling nine to one one, are these 640 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 4: the forces that can reopen the strait? 641 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 9: I'm not sure these are the forces that can reopen 642 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,920 Speaker 9: the straight My understanding is these forces may be used 643 00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:42,680 Speaker 9: to again either attempt to take control of that highly 644 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,920 Speaker 9: enriched uranium, assuming we know where it is, possibly seese 645 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 9: Harg Island, which is of course offshore, or undertake some 646 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 9: operations along Iran's coastline. But I think the understanding is 647 00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 9: reopening the Strait is a very very complex endeavor, and 648 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 9: that's why, as we recall, the President in fact was 649 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 9: calling at one point on NATO allies to assist precisely 650 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,759 Speaker 9: because this is not something that the United States could 651 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,080 Speaker 9: do on its own. 652 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,520 Speaker 2: Well, and of course, well he's called on NATO allies, 653 00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 2: he actually has said that it's Golf allies that have 654 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 2: been more helpful so far. And I wonder Mona, how 655 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,680 Speaker 2: you're thinking about the other Golf states and what they 656 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 2: would like to see here in terms of outcomes. Is 657 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 2: I'm sure you saw reporting in recent days that the 658 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,360 Speaker 2: Saudi Prince Muhammad ben Salman is actually pushing the President 659 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 2: to continue these operations to make sure that the Iranian 660 00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:43,879 Speaker 2: government is fully eradicated essentially as it stands now, can 661 00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 2: you just walk us through what the other Arab nations 662 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,160 Speaker 2: are likely to want to see here and push for. 663 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:54,239 Speaker 9: Well health countries all because of course they are Iran's 664 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 9: direct neighbors. They've borne an enormous cost because of these strikes. 665 00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 9: They're all looking for an end state that will not 666 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 9: allow Iran to again threaten the region. I think the 667 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 9: question though, comes as to how exactly that happens. And 668 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:16,080 Speaker 9: while it's maybe correct that they want to be ensured 669 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,560 Speaker 9: that the United States quote unquote finishes the job and 670 00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 9: they don't want to be left holding the bag. They're also, 671 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 9: I think, quite wary of being drawn into, for example, 672 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,839 Speaker 9: offensive operations against Iran, which is at times been speculated 673 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:37,520 Speaker 9: in the press. They're in an extraordinarily difficult position, very delicate, 674 00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,640 Speaker 9: and I think at this point they're quite wary of 675 00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,919 Speaker 9: how this could go down, and in particular, as I said, 676 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:49,359 Speaker 9: most focused on how does this conflict end and what 677 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,360 Speaker 9: does Iran look like at the end of this conflict. 678 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 4: We're just hearing from Caroline Levitt again in the briefing 679 00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:01,480 Speaker 4: room Mona. She says about the prospect of Iran rejecting 680 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 4: this peace proposal from the administration. They have not, she says, 681 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:10,239 Speaker 4: they have continued referring to negotiations. They are productive, as 682 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 4: the President said Monday, and they continue to be. She's 683 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,479 Speaker 4: in fact questioning reporting now about this fifteen point plan, 684 00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:22,760 Speaker 4: cautioning reporters from reporting about speculative points or speculative plans. 685 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:24,320 Speaker 6: How should we read into that answer? 686 00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:29,520 Speaker 9: Well, again, I think, you know, the history of negotiations 687 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:33,200 Speaker 9: between the United States and Iran is one that is 688 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 9: very much often deliberated in back channels and so forth. 689 00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,880 Speaker 9: That being said, you know it is curious about the 690 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,359 Speaker 9: leaking of those fifteen points. Did they just come out 691 00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,360 Speaker 9: of thin air? Hard to believe that would be the case. 692 00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,320 Speaker 9: I think what is clear is there is significant daylight 693 00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 9: right now between the United States and Iran, with the 694 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,160 Speaker 9: US looking for maybe a one month cease fire, Iran 695 00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:04,919 Speaker 9: demanding a full cessation of hostilities, and Iran demanding her 696 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:09,840 Speaker 9: its own press that they retain sovereignty over the strait 697 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,719 Speaker 9: of horror moves. And I think that's going to be 698 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,760 Speaker 9: an enormous sticking point, not to mention the long standing 699 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:18,279 Speaker 9: demands that the United States have had of Iran, whether 700 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:23,080 Speaker 9: it's it's nuclear capabilities, it's ballistic missile capabilities, or its 701 00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 9: support for proxies. And here too, I think we can 702 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,840 Speaker 9: expect that Iran is going to push back on those demands. 703 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 9: We've already seen indicators of that. 704 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:33,640 Speaker 4: Hey Mona, she's with the Middle East Program at the 705 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 4: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Mona Yakubi, and thank 706 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:43,799 Speaker 4: you so much for the insights. Thanks for listening to 707 00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:47,239 Speaker 4: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if 708 00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,000 Speaker 4: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get 709 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,040 Speaker 4: your podcasts, and you can find US Live every weekday 710 00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:56,880 Speaker 4: from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at bloomberg dot com.