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Speaker 1: One up. Guys, How are you welcome into a Thursday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt

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Speaker 1: Perrault at Sports Talk Matt de following me on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: This podcast being brought to you by Omaha Steaks dot com.

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Speaker 1: That promo code Juice gets you thirty dollars off at

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Speaker 1: checkout for a qualifying order this Father's Day at Omaha

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Speaker 1: Steaks dot Com. More on them here in just one

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Speaker 1: second oh and one yesterday, if you bet the Braves,

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Speaker 1: that run line came in, so you went one in

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Speaker 1: one like I did own one officially though, because I'm

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Speaker 1: not laying minus one thirty five juice that was right

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Speaker 1: at the ceiling.

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Speaker 2: I thought about making it official, but I should have.

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Speaker 2: I didn't.

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Speaker 1: My bat on that Red Sox got nine runs total.

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Speaker 1: They were right there, run on second base and one

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Speaker 1: out in the bottom of the eighth inning. Could not

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Speaker 1: get the tying run in. It would have been five,

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Speaker 1: the over would have hit and we would have been

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Speaker 1: one to know. Instead, we go down one point one

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Speaker 1: units on the day for baseball and we move on

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Speaker 1: to a Thursday. Okay, really light slate for Thursday. The

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Speaker 1: A's are not playing the A's are traveling to Miami,

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Speaker 1: so we can't even fade the A's today. And there's

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Speaker 1: nothing really with baseball that I'm in love with. It's

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Speaker 1: the start of the NBA Finals, and well, why not

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Speaker 1: let's ride it. We've had a very good run with basketball,

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Speaker 1: and since we've built up a pretty good little nest

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Speaker 1: egg here, I feel like we can be a little

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Speaker 1: more aggressive than maybe I normally would be by kind

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Speaker 1: of well stacking up multiple bets. We're up fourteen point

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Speaker 1: six units in the NBA since my return. We're thirty

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Speaker 1: eight and twenty two. That's a sixty three percent clip.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people when they hear those numbers, they

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Speaker 1: will basically say that Matt's lying.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'm not lying. That's what we are in the NBA.

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Speaker 1: Thirty eight and twenty two, up fourteen point six four

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Speaker 1: units so far, sixty three point three percent accuracy here

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Speaker 1: on the straight bets, prop bets have been bad seventeen

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Speaker 1: and seventeen we are down zero point sixty six units

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Speaker 1: on that. So if you take away that, we're up

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Speaker 1: fourteen units overall in the NBA.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So with.

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Speaker 1: That stated, I've got two bets full unit and two

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Speaker 1: prop bets to give you guys here for game number one.

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Speaker 1: These numbers are super sharp. Okay, it's not easy. It's

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Speaker 1: not going to be a walk in the park. All

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Speaker 1: these numbers will be sweaty. These will be one or

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Speaker 1: two possessions on either side. Get ready, buckle up. This

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Speaker 1: could be a bumpy night for us. We'll see what

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Speaker 1: ends up happening here in game one of the NBA Finals.

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Speaker 1: Before I give you the picks for today, let's talk

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Speaker 1: at Omaha Steaks dot com. All right, so the number

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Speaker 1: for the game is nine. I can't lay that. I

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Speaker 1: can't recommend laying that. I'm gonna wait and get a

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Speaker 1: better number. I want under six. So at any point

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Speaker 1: during this game, if I see under six, I will

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Speaker 1: live bet Denver. All right, this is a live betting opportunity.

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Speaker 1: I do not want to be sweating this out at

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Speaker 1: the end on a free throw, last second scrub shot.

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Speaker 2: Blah blah blah.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I don't. Nine's too many points, so I'm gonna wait.

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Speaker 1: In game, however, there are a lot of trends about

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Speaker 1: the first half. The books know this teams coming off

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Speaker 1: of game sevens and the other team has been resting

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Speaker 1: for more than two days. The first half number is bonkers.

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Speaker 1: I forget the total, but it's the stat. But it's bonkers. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the books know it.

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Speaker 2: Why do we know it? The number is six. I

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Speaker 2: totally the game is nine.

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Speaker 1: Numbers to be four and a half, even fives, aggressive, six,

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Speaker 1: Get out of here. That's ridiculous. So we have to

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Speaker 1: find something else. We can't bet first half. I can't

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Speaker 1: recommend laying six points in the first half. How about

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Speaker 1: the first quarter. It's three and a half now we're talking.

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Speaker 1: It is a two possession lead. But here are the stats.

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Speaker 1: The Denver Nuggets averaged thirty and a half points per

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Speaker 1: game in the first quarter at home. The Miami Heat

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Speaker 1: averaged twenty six point nine points in the first quarter

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Speaker 1: this year on the road. Miami coming off that seven

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Speaker 1: game series, maybe a slow start, maybe a little sluggish.

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Speaker 1: Denver rested, fired up crowd will be energetic, going bonkers.

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Speaker 1: First ever NBA Finals in the city of Denver. You

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Speaker 1: know that crowd is going to bring it in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter. It's going to be rough on Miami. The

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Speaker 1: Nuggets were the number two scoring team in the first

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Speaker 1: quarter this year in the NBA.

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Speaker 2: They were the.

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Speaker 1: Number four scoring team in the first quarter at home

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Speaker 1: in the NBA, and Miami was second to last in

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Speaker 1: first quarter scoring on the road this season one point

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Speaker 1: one units Denver minus three and a half in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter against the Miami Heat. Here in Game one

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Speaker 1: of the NBA Finals, now against Minnesota. The game, the

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Speaker 1: first game at home for Denver went under. The other

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Speaker 1: two games against Phoenix and the Lakers, it went over.

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Speaker 1: This number is two nineteen and a half. He got

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Speaker 1: as high as two twenty. It has come back down

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Speaker 1: a little bit. And that's what I'm thinking as well.

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Speaker 1: Here's the rationale. I think this could be a blowout. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the line is nine. A lot of people are laying

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Speaker 1: the seven, eighty nine, even ten points. This game is

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Speaker 1: not going to be closed. That Denver is going to

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Speaker 1: kill Miami. I'm of that mindset too. I'm just out

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Speaker 1: of the mindset to be recommending this type of blowout.

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Speaker 1: So with that stated, I think there's a chance for

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Speaker 1: the game to go under two nineteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, the first game against the Timberwolves at

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Speaker 1: home went under, went under by thirty five points. Why

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Speaker 1: Denver killed them. I think Denver's gonna kill Miami tonight.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the game'sill be very close. Okay, again,

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Speaker 1: I think nine they cover it. I do think they're

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Speaker 1: gonna cover nine. I just want a better number. I

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Speaker 1: know I can get a better number, So why bet

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Speaker 1: nine when I know so? At some point during the game,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna get a better number. Okay, I'm gonna get

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Speaker 1: a seven to six, a five at some point. Okay,

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Speaker 1: just the ebb and flow of an NBA basketball game,

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Speaker 1: we know that's gonna happen.

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Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for five. You give me five. Anything under six,

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Speaker 1: and I'm on it. Unless Denver opens the game on

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Speaker 1: like a ten Ozer run and never looks back. Then okay,

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Speaker 1: I'll miss on the bet. I won't be able to

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Speaker 1: bet it, and I'll just let it go. But I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's gonna happen. That'd be somewhat surprising if

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Speaker 1: that were to happen. So I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a slower game. I think the zone that Miami plays

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Speaker 1: could slow down the game. I don't think Miami shoots

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Speaker 1: the three all that well. The size for Denver's a

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Speaker 1: really big problem. Michael Porter, Junior Jokic, Aaron Gordon. They're long,

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Speaker 1: they're long. Defensively, they're gonna cause a lot of problems.

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Speaker 1: The guys like Vincent, the guys like Robinson coming off screens.

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Speaker 1: These guys are gonna deal with hands in their faces

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Speaker 1: much differently than Boston. This is not the Celtics. Denver

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Speaker 1: is not Boston. Okay, They've got a deeper roster. A

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Speaker 1: better roster is a huge problem, huge problem. And Murray

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Speaker 1: is a huge problem.

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Speaker 2: They know this.

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Speaker 1: The other guys also Brown and Gordon and Michael Porter Junior.

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Speaker 1: I think those guys are gonna have the biggest impact

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Speaker 1: on the series. Those are the guys that Miami's got

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Speaker 1: no answer for. Jimmy Butler could match Murray and bam Adebayo,

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Speaker 1: could you know, keep pace with Jokich, not beat them,

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Speaker 1: but keep pace. But the rest of the guys, Caleb

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Speaker 1: Martin is not doing this again, Guys, Caleb Martin's there's

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Speaker 1: a Bett FanDuel if you want it. Caleb Martin, will

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Speaker 1: he score twenty five points or more in any game

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Speaker 1: in this series? The over is Masch one fifteen, The

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Speaker 1: under is mass one oh five. I would bet that, no, No,

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Speaker 1: Caleb Martin's going to go back to being Caleb Martin. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the Miami Heat are going to have to really manufacture

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Speaker 1: a lot here and work really hard at altitude after

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Speaker 1: a seven game grueling series flying across the country. Denver's

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Speaker 1: bit Denver in a route, but I'm gonna wait for

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Speaker 1: that in game number to bet it under two nineteen

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Speaker 1: and a half Denver in Miami game one, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: bet the under, not because Denver won't score, because Miami

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Speaker 1: won't score. It's a route. Game goes under. Two prop

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Speaker 1: bets along the same lines, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Junior.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon's played very well at home in these playoffs.

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Speaker 1: He scored double digits in every game so far. His

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Speaker 1: point total is twelve and a half. I would have

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Speaker 1: rather twelve, but it's twelve and a half. I think

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Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon can score thirteen points in this game. I

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Speaker 1: think Aaron Gordon could be a really big problem on

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Speaker 1: the wing shooting threes. His three point total is only

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Speaker 1: hitting a half. I bet him over shoot over a three.

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Speaker 1: One to three point or not a bad bet either

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Speaker 1: on Aaron Gordon, but for a quarter unit in minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen, I'm gonna bet over twelve and a half

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Speaker 1: points for Aaron Gordon. I normally don't give out prop

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Speaker 1: bets overnight, but because it's the finals. The markets are

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Speaker 1: already up and they're moving so dramatically that I'm comfortable

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Speaker 1: doing this and Michael Porter Junior same bet over fifteen

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Speaker 1: and a half points for Michael Porter Junior at minus

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Speaker 1: one ten under juice in this one. But I think

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Speaker 1: the role players. I think you're gonna see Spolster try

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Speaker 1: so hard. They're gonna throw everything at Jokis. They're gonna say,

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Speaker 1: somebody else is gonna have to beat us. Jokicch can't

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Speaker 1: beat us, and the other guys are gonna beat them.

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Speaker 1: The role players are gonna beat them. Aaron Gordon's gonna

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Speaker 1: beat them. Michael Porter June is gonna beat them. Bet

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Speaker 1: to win a quarter unit on both those props minus

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Speaker 1: one to fifteen Aaron Gordon over twelve and a half points,

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Speaker 1: Michael Porter Junior over fifteen and a half points mis

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Speaker 1: won ten on that one. Okay, normally I don't load

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Speaker 1: up like this on one game, but it is the

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Speaker 1: NBA Finals.

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Speaker 2: A little over, you know, nearly three.

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Speaker 1: Units in play here, because as I said before, we're

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Speaker 1: up really big in the NBA so and I like

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Speaker 1: the numbers again. Denver minus three and a half in

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Speaker 1: the first quarter, for one point one units, the game

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Speaker 1: under two nineteen and a half for one point one units,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon over twelve and a half points a minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen quarter unit and Michael Porter Junior over fifteen

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Speaker 1: and a half points minus one ten for a quarter units.

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Speaker 2: I'll talk to you guys in the Discord channel.

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Speaker 1: I will tell you when I will fire on the

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Speaker 1: game for the Nuggets again. Looking for four four or

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Speaker 1: five under six is what I want. We'll be looking

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Speaker 1: for that bettingpros dot com slash juice to get into

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Speaker 1: our Discord channel minus Matt Parreltz to follow me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Each and every morning. It

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Speaker 1: is the Deal Used podcast being brought to you by

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Speaker 1: our friends at Omaha Steakes dot com