Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: What an interesting day in the market. It's quiet economic
Speaker 2: day at retail sales tomorrow. The CPI was yesterday, but
Speaker 2: it is a shocking two day lift in the markets
Speaker 2: and even green on the screen here this morning. We'll
Speaker 2: see how we end up through the day in the
Speaker 2: stock market. We celebrated last week Rick Atkinson with us
Speaker 2: the second volume of his American Revolution. That's a book
Speaker 2: of the summer. I had to go with two books
Speaker 2: of the summer because Ken Rogoff is out with Our Dollar,
Speaker 2: Your Problem, call it my economic book of the summer,
Speaker 2: hugely focused on the dollar and of course our worries
Speaker 2: about debt and deficit. Our dollar, your problem, our debt,
Speaker 2: and your problem here is Ken Rogoff.
Speaker 1: If you believe that it's going to stay on the
Speaker 1: higher side, as I do, you know, debt is very
Speaker 1: high and it does gradually push up interest rates the
Speaker 1: whole world, for better for worse is remilitarizing.
Speaker 3: Populism.
Speaker 1: Deglobalization, which we discussed earlier, also pushes up interest rates.
Speaker 1: All of these things, I think we could easily see
Speaker 1: the ten year at that Now I'm talking about the
Speaker 1: nominal which is now for something like that, we could
Speaker 1: see it at five five six within a couple of years.
Speaker 3: Given how things are going.
Speaker 1: There are some very smart people, young economists, who think, Nope,
Speaker 1: this is an aberration, We're going to go back on
Speaker 1: that downward ride, and debt is a free lunch.
Speaker 3: After all.
Speaker 1: That seems to me a very risky thing to bet
Speaker 1: the farm on.
Speaker 2: In the span of your twenty twenty five What you
Speaker 2: just heard is with that question, one of the great
Speaker 2: outliers of the year. I would suggest an awful lot
Speaker 2: of people I talk to anecdotally, our tendency is towards
Speaker 2: the camp of Ken Rogoff of price down and yield
Speaker 2: up in a five and a half for even six
Speaker 2: percent yield. That's an extraordinary statement by Ken Rogoff and
Speaker 2: is another reason to consider his book Our Dollar Your
Speaker 2: Problem Again, Professor Rogoff on America.
Speaker 3: I think we've hit the peak, and I think you know.
Speaker 3: I don't.
Speaker 1: I'm not an investor, but I would say this is
Speaker 1: a moment to think about diversification more.
Speaker 3: I see Europe with.
Speaker 1: Its forced remilitarization, with its ketchup, probably doing outperforming the
Speaker 1: United States, China.
Speaker 3: Not so much. But it's going to break away from
Speaker 3: the United States.
Speaker 1: Thank you for mentioning Western New York as a wasteland,
Speaker 1: because I actually talk a lot about our joint hometown
Speaker 1: of Rochester quite a bit in the book.
Speaker 3: But I see.
Speaker 1: Certainly the dollars staying on top, but less on top.
Speaker 3: You mentioned Barry Ikinreen. I mean he wrote and many
Speaker 3: of us.
Speaker 1: Thought twenty years ago that we were headed to a
Speaker 1: more tripolar world. I think we're back on course to that.
Speaker 1: We'll lose some of our exceptionalism. It will hurt in
Speaker 1: national security too. There will be other pathways to do transactions.
Speaker 1: Our sanctions won't be as effective, our spying won't be
Speaker 1: as effective, and a number of other things.
Speaker 3: I think Americans are going to have to adjust.
Speaker 1: But I think we're going to have a bit a
Speaker 1: crisis of some sort first, because no politician can rate
Speaker 1: it in until we do that have one kens rugoff.
Speaker 2: It's a remarkably slim book. This is not four hundred
Speaker 2: or eight hundred pages like Rick Atkinson's American Revolution Treatment.
Speaker 2: This is a blistering two hundred and fifty or so pages.
Speaker 2: Our dollar, your problem. I won't miss words that you
Speaker 2: got a kid this summer and they're whining about their
Speaker 2: board and they need something to read. Throw our dollar,
Speaker 2: your problem at them, and it is a really scintillating
Speaker 2: look back over twenty thirty forty years and then forward
Speaker 2: to the next America. This is a single best idea.
Speaker 2: We're right on YouTube podcast and of course commute across
Speaker 2: the nation and again single best idea.