1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:11,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,760 Speaker 2: What an interesting day in the market. It's quiet economic 3 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:20,319 Speaker 2: day at retail sales tomorrow. The CPI was yesterday, but 4 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 2: it is a shocking two day lift in the markets 5 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 2: and even green on the screen here this morning. We'll 6 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: see how we end up through the day in the 7 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:33,279 Speaker 2: stock market. We celebrated last week Rick Atkinson with us 8 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: the second volume of his American Revolution. That's a book 9 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 2: of the summer. I had to go with two books 10 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: of the summer because Ken Rogoff is out with Our Dollar, 11 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 2: Your Problem, call it my economic book of the summer, 12 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 2: hugely focused on the dollar and of course our worries 13 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: about debt and deficit. Our dollar, your problem, our debt, 14 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: and your problem here is Ken Rogoff. 15 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: If you believe that it's going to stay on the 16 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 1: higher side, as I do, you know, debt is very 17 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: high and it does gradually push up interest rates the 18 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 1: whole world, for better for worse is remilitarizing. 19 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 3: Populism. 20 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: Deglobalization, which we discussed earlier, also pushes up interest rates. 21 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: All of these things, I think we could easily see 22 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: the ten year at that Now I'm talking about the 23 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 1: nominal which is now for something like that, we could 24 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: see it at five five six within a couple of years. 25 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 3: Given how things are going. 26 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: There are some very smart people, young economists, who think, Nope, 27 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: this is an aberration, We're going to go back on 28 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: that downward ride, and debt is a free lunch. 29 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 3: After all. 30 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: That seems to me a very risky thing to bet 31 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 1: the farm on. 32 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 2: In the span of your twenty twenty five What you 33 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 2: just heard is with that question, one of the great 34 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 2: outliers of the year. I would suggest an awful lot 35 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 2: of people I talk to anecdotally, our tendency is towards 36 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 2: the camp of Ken Rogoff of price down and yield 37 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 2: up in a five and a half for even six 38 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: percent yield. That's an extraordinary statement by Ken Rogoff and 39 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 2: is another reason to consider his book Our Dollar Your 40 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 2: Problem Again, Professor Rogoff on America. 41 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 3: I think we've hit the peak, and I think you know. 42 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 3: I don't. 43 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: I'm not an investor, but I would say this is 44 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 1: a moment to think about diversification more. 45 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 3: I see Europe with. 46 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: Its forced remilitarization, with its ketchup, probably doing outperforming the 47 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:48,119 Speaker 1: United States, China. 48 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 3: Not so much. But it's going to break away from 49 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 3: the United States. 50 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: Thank you for mentioning Western New York as a wasteland, 51 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: because I actually talk a lot about our joint hometown 52 00:02:57,800 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 1: of Rochester quite a bit in the book. 53 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 3: But I see. 54 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: Certainly the dollars staying on top, but less on top. 55 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: You mentioned Barry Ikinreen. I mean he wrote and many 56 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 3: of us. 57 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: Thought twenty years ago that we were headed to a 58 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: more tripolar world. I think we're back on course to that. 59 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: We'll lose some of our exceptionalism. It will hurt in 60 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: national security too. There will be other pathways to do transactions. 61 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: Our sanctions won't be as effective, our spying won't be 62 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: as effective, and a number of other things. 63 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 3: I think Americans are going to have to adjust. 64 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: But I think we're going to have a bit a 65 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: crisis of some sort first, because no politician can rate 66 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: it in until we do that have one kens rugoff. 67 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 2: It's a remarkably slim book. This is not four hundred 68 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 2: or eight hundred pages like Rick Atkinson's American Revolution Treatment. 69 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 2: This is a blistering two hundred and fifty or so pages. 70 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: Our dollar, your problem. I won't miss words that you 71 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 2: got a kid this summer and they're whining about their 72 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 2: board and they need something to read. Throw our dollar, 73 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 2: your problem at them, and it is a really scintillating 74 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 2: look back over twenty thirty forty years and then forward 75 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: to the next America. This is a single best idea. 76 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 2: We're right on YouTube podcast and of course commute across 77 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 2: the nation and again single best idea.