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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just mop that action also.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash to stop.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you want to pull,

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Speaker 2: and we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. It's NFL Week twelve.

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Speaker 4: We got touchdowns for you for every game on the

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Speaker 4: Sunday and Monday sway. I'll be joined momentarily by Sean Turner,

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Speaker 4: Jill Gallant too, of the best touchdown betters out there.

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Speaker 4: Last week we hit on George Crickens, Jake Ferguson, Jay

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Speaker 4: when Hurts, Mark Andrews, Kareem Hunt, Kobe Parkinson, Greg Dort,

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Speaker 4: just a ton of guys, McMillan, Tech McMillan as well.

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Speaker 4: So today we're gonna go through week twelve. We'll alternate

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Speaker 4: given our guys to find the end zone and set

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Speaker 4: up some parlays. If you want to tail, just look

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Speaker 4: for the quick slip link in the podcast and video

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Speaker 4: description or go to Action network dot com slash bet. Now,

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Speaker 4: before we get into these touchdowns with Kerner and go in,

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Speaker 4: I'll toss it over to myself.

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Speaker 1: Forward from our sponsor.

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Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast has teamed up with Draft Kings sportsbook,

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Speaker 1: The crown is your all right.

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Speaker 4: Sunday, Kerner was going on, got you the Ugly Titans

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Speaker 4: game again with some win some rain so you could

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Speaker 4: thank I guess David, I got d paying for that one.

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Speaker 1: But how you feeling pretty good?

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Speaker 5: I you know, I always get these classic games, but

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Speaker 5: I was actually happy I got this game because if

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Speaker 5: you recall I've mentioned aj Barner on every single pod

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Speaker 5: this week. The last time that happened was Aronda Gadson

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Speaker 5: touchdown week. Here's touchdown week. So I'm sticking with Barner

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Speaker 5: here at plus two fifty. He's gonna be my favorite

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Speaker 5: touchdown leg on our parlay.

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Speaker 2: But he already has a ton of upside. As you know.

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Speaker 5: The lead tight end for the Seahawks saw a season

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Speaker 5: high eighty percent routes run rate last week coming off

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Speaker 5: a ten catch game. But more importantly, he is their

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Speaker 5: ball carrier on their Toush push play and he's been

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Speaker 5: very effective, just as effective as Jalen Hurts. He has

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Speaker 5: an eighty eight percent success rate on his run plays,

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Speaker 5: typically picks up the first down. A couple weeks ago,

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Speaker 5: they gave him the Toush push play on the goal

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Speaker 5: and he had a rushing touchdown. So this is essentially

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Speaker 5: like Jalen Hurts and Taysom Hill sort of combined with

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Speaker 5: aj Barner. Right now, he just has so many outs

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Speaker 5: to scoring a touchdown now, So give me Barner at

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Speaker 5: plus two fifty before the market really catches on to him.

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Speaker 5: And on the other side, I don't like anybody, but

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go Tony Pollard at plus two ninety. Not

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Speaker 5: expecting too many points from the Titans here, but you know,

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Speaker 5: if they do get in a goal to go situation,

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Speaker 5: I would imagine Pollard would be the most likely back

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Speaker 5: to be out there. You know, he's in a pretty

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Speaker 5: much a fifty to fifty committee with Taja Spears right now.

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Speaker 5: But I consider Pollard, you know, sort of the better

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Speaker 5: early down shortyardage option, and I am projecting him closer

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Speaker 5: to plus two forty. So of all the Titans, I

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Speaker 5: think Pallar's offering the most value right now at plus

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Speaker 5: two ninety.

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Speaker 4: I feel like you can't get off our guy at

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Speaker 4: Shimri DK. I think I get off of him like

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Speaker 4: one week, I get on him another week, and then

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Speaker 4: he scores the other week, so I'll probably be on

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Speaker 4: him too. But yeah, it's it's tough sweating out there,

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Speaker 4: low total game. It looks like it could be some

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Speaker 4: weather as well. This one, Jill is not gonna be

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Speaker 4: any weather. Giants indoors at Detroit Detroit coming off a loss,

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Speaker 4: they're usually really good at these spots. Giants with the

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Speaker 4: worst run defense by EPA. So it's just it's an

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Speaker 4: interesting matchup. I think a lot of people are gonna

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Speaker 4: gravitate towards you know, Gibbs and Montgomery, but you're actually

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Speaker 4: looking at some other guys in this one.

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Speaker 6: I think there's a lot of passing upside in this matchup,

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Speaker 6: not just because it's indoors, but this is the Man

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Speaker 6: Coverage Bowl again. We're gonna go see the Giants who

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Speaker 6: are number one man coverage Lions or number three. So

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Speaker 6: on the Giants side, THEO Johnson right now is around

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Speaker 6: plus three hundred. That's the guy who I would go with.

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Speaker 6: With New York Jackson Dart, I think he is expected

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Speaker 6: to come back, but even if it's Jamis or you

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Speaker 6: know Russ, it doesn't matter. He's just been getting a

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Speaker 6: ton of targets in this offense, and he has decent

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Speaker 6: receiver metrics for against man defense and single high safety.

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Speaker 6: Also another thing too, when you look at the Splits,

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Speaker 6: like the Giants, they haven't really played a lot of

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Speaker 6: teams that use man defense a lot outside of the

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Speaker 6: Broncos and the Bears. And he led the Giants in

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Speaker 6: receiving in both of those games. If you remember, he

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Speaker 6: caught that flukey tip touchdown versus the Broncos. So THEO

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Speaker 6: Johnson at three to one, who's basically become like the

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Speaker 6: number one option in this offense right now, since Malik

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Speaker 6: Neighbors has gone down on the Lions side. I bet

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Speaker 6: him against the Eagles. It didn't really work out, but

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Speaker 6: I think you got to take him at this price.

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Speaker 6: Brock right right now is around plus four hundred to

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Speaker 6: score a touchdown and he is the tight end one

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Speaker 6: in this offense by default, so you're getting a high

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Speaker 6: powered offense at home that could probably put up forty points.

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Speaker 6: I'm going to take him in this spot now. Obviously

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Speaker 6: against man coverage of mom Ros, Saint Brown and Jamo,

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Speaker 6: they're gonna be the ones who are getting a lot

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Speaker 6: of targets, but their odds are like minus ods for

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Speaker 6: a Monro. I think it's plus one thirty for Jmo.

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Speaker 6: So like you had said that the Lions, they've just

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Speaker 6: struggled on offense. They're coming back home. It's could be

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Speaker 6: like one of those home cooking like get right games.

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Speaker 6: And he saw seven targets last week with Laporta out,

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Speaker 6: so he tends to see a target up tick when

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Speaker 6: facing man coverage. And as I said, the Giants play

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Speaker 6: man coverage at the highest rate. So give me a

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Speaker 6: starting tight end in this Detroit Lions offense at four

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Speaker 6: to one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I don't even think they had a third

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Speaker 4: tight end up last week. I think it was just

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Speaker 4: Brock right and Dwelly, if I'm not mistaken, is the backup,

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Speaker 4: but didn't really do much right, So yeah, it's gonna

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Speaker 4: be all right, No pun intended here in his Detroit offense.

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Speaker 4: All right, Next up we got we'll stay with the

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Speaker 4: New York teams traveling the Jets at the Baltimore Ravens.

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Speaker 4: This is an interesting game. I'm gonna go with Lamar

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Speaker 4: Jackson at plus two hundred. I've never bet Lamar Jackson touchdowns.

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Speaker 4: I usually faded on the season long board when it's

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Speaker 4: his rushing number because it's always like a touchdown or

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Speaker 4: so too high. But my guy Stuck, who's really plugged

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Speaker 4: in with the Ravens, was talking about how he thinks

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Speaker 4: that they're just really frustrated with their red zone offense

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Speaker 4: and the production down there, and he thinks that they're

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Speaker 4: going to look to give Himar more uh you know

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Speaker 4: runs down there, and that oh, this year he only

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Speaker 4: has one carry inside the five.

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Speaker 1: Derreck Henry has fourteen and that's it.

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Speaker 4: No one else on the team has one period, so

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Speaker 4: you know, they've kind of showed their hand with the

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Speaker 4: Mark Andrews, you know, whatever, whatever it is. So I

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Speaker 4: think Lamar might catch might catch the Jets sleeping and

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Speaker 4: be able to run one in. He could also scramble

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Speaker 4: one in. He's been stopped at the one or two

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Speaker 4: a couple of times on scrambles this year as well.

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Speaker 1: So I like his touchdown. I just want to.

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Speaker 4: Get ahead of this one because usually he's not a bet.

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Speaker 4: I would recommend Lamar Jackson and for the Jets going

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Speaker 4: right back to Isaiah Williams still ten to one, essentially

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Speaker 4: tied for the Jet lead in routes run last week

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Speaker 4: against the New England Patriots. So this guy's just playing

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Speaker 4: a ton. You know, he does have some explosiveness. We

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Speaker 4: saw him return the you know, the kick for a

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Speaker 4: touchdown a few weeks ago, the punt excuse me, And

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Speaker 4: you know, I thought, you know, because he's more of

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Speaker 4: a slot guy, you know, a guy who's going to

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Speaker 4: return kicks that they wouldn't really looked him in the

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Speaker 4: red zone because they have some bigger bodies and tight

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Speaker 4: ends and things like that he's actually reading them in

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Speaker 4: red zone snaps since they switched up this whole uh

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Speaker 4: you know, their whole team essentially as well.

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Speaker 1: So I can't get away from him.

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Speaker 4: At ten to one, I have his eyes, you know,

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Speaker 4: kind of half this in that same kind of bucket

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Speaker 4: with Mechi and U and Eightie Mitchell and Adie Mitchell

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Speaker 4: is the other guy I want to mention as well,

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Speaker 4: because he saw about a sixty two percent routes run

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Speaker 4: rate last week that was up from the week before

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Speaker 4: when he was you know, he didn't play, and the

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Speaker 4: Jets have been they showed it with MESHI that they're

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Speaker 4: gonna really work these new guys in. So I think

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Speaker 4: Mitchell Williams as well. So I think Mitchell is a

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Speaker 4: guy who he might bump up into the you know,

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Speaker 4: eighties nineties percent and routes run rate, and he is

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Speaker 4: clearly the most efficient jet receiver in terms of targets

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Speaker 4: per route and all that stuff. So I think a

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Speaker 4: really good bet, you know, just because of the upside

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Speaker 4: still at plus four fifty, if you can get it

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Speaker 4: anything above four hundred, I think it is decent value

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Speaker 4: for eighty here. So I just want to mention him

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Speaker 4: as well, but I'll go with Williams for the official

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Speaker 4: play because he's just ridiculously underpriced at ten to one.

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Speaker 4: Steelers at the Bears, who just you know, outdoor game here, Kerner,

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Speaker 4: we got, you know, the Steelers just weeding on their

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Speaker 4: tight ends, the quarterback question marks and Ben Johnson cooking

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Speaker 4: with the run game.

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Speaker 1: What are you doing here?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so this game doesn't really have a market up

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Speaker 5: right now, so I'm just kind of like roughly projecting

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Speaker 5: their price right now. But for the Bears, I'm going

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Speaker 5: to go with my guy, luth Burden the third right

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Speaker 5: around like plus three hundred. You know, he's a second

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Speaker 5: round pick that many considered, you know, first round talent,

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Speaker 5: but he's been buried on the depth chart. He's been

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Speaker 5: their wide receiver four for the entire season so far,

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Speaker 5: so he hasn't really seen that many chances. But last

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Speaker 5: week he did finally leapfrog. All on my Day is

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Speaker 5: a Kias and he's their wide receiver three right now.

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Speaker 5: And Ben Johnson even said that he's earned more playing time,

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Speaker 5: which is music to my ears. So I'm taking here.

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Speaker 5: I think he has a ton of upside, So the

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Speaker 5: more playing time he's going to get the more lifely

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Speaker 5: as a score. And on the Steelers side, I'm going

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Speaker 5: to go Darnell Washington. He's really starting to trend up.

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Speaker 5: You know, this is obviously a very murky three way

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Speaker 5: tight end committee. But he saw a sixty one percent

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Speaker 5: routes run rate last week around his season high, and

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Speaker 5: he had a really good run after the catch where

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Speaker 5: he like bulldozed over two to three would be tackler.

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Speaker 5: So I think they're just going to try to get

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Speaker 5: him the ball more, especially around the red zone, just

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Speaker 5: considering how massive he is. And you know, whether it's

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Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph under center doesn't really matter,

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Speaker 5: but they're both. You know, Rogers is questionable, Janel Lawrence questionable,

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Speaker 5: so they might lean on someone like Washington a bit

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Speaker 5: more here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm seeing Washington at plus four thirty seven

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Speaker 4: and Burden at plus three thirty seven, so some.

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Speaker 1: Nice value there.

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Speaker 4: I will see how these markets kind of trend. But

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Speaker 4: like those two, I am jeous though, Joe that you

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Speaker 4: got the Patriots Bengals game, because all types of issues

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Speaker 4: going on in this one. I mean, Joe Burrow, I

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Speaker 4: don't think has officially been ruled out as we record this.

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Speaker 4: He could be by the time people are listening, but

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Speaker 4: I don't think he's officially been yet. And Jamar Chase

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Speaker 4: suspension has been upheld and booties are no.

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Speaker 1: Longer up in the air Kerner.

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Speaker 4: Remember Kayshawn is back as well, So Jill, a lot

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Speaker 4: of stuff to digest here, But who are you going?

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Speaker 6: All right, Well, let's start on the Bengals side, because

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Speaker 6: I don't think it matters if it's Burrow or Flacco

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Speaker 6: for this one. And I know that you've already given

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Speaker 6: this out on the six pack with Stuckey Mitchell Tinsley.

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Speaker 6: Right now, I'm seeing odds around plus five hundred to

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Speaker 6: score a touchdown, And I mean he's gonna probably be

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Speaker 6: the direct replacement for Jamar Chase. You look at the

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Speaker 6: snaps run for all the receivers on this on this

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Speaker 6: team outside of Yoshavas, like, there's not really many guys

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Speaker 6: like Charlie Jones is not really going to run any

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Speaker 6: routest in this offense. So I think he's going to

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Speaker 6: be a direct replacement on the outside in this Because

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Speaker 6: we talked about this Andrey Yoshavas he lines up in

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Speaker 6: the slot about a seventy percent rate. I think they're

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Speaker 6: going to keep him right there. And I also expect

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Speaker 6: the Patriots to have quarterback Christian Gonzalez probably shadow t

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Speaker 6: Higgins as much as possible and a lot of people

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Speaker 6: they might not remember, but in Week two he had

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Speaker 6: probably one of the best touchdown catches of the year

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Speaker 6: against the Jaguars that he had another one in the preseason.

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Speaker 6: So in a game right now where they're pretty big underdogs,

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Speaker 6: if they're trailing, which the spread indicates, they'll be throwing

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Speaker 6: a lot. And if you've got Flacco, I love him

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Speaker 6: to spray the ball over the field. Tinsley maybe he'll

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Speaker 6: high point one and get another touchdown. So I love

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Speaker 6: them around five to one or anything over four to

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Speaker 6: one really for Mitchell Tinsley in this offense. On the

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Speaker 6: Patriots side, I keep going back to Pop Douglas. He's

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Speaker 6: plus four twenty five. I know he's super streaky. Booties

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Speaker 6: are back in the air. But at the same time, Pop,

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Speaker 6: we're ready to pop on this one because three touchdowns

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Speaker 6: this year second on the Pats three end zone targets.

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Speaker 6: The Bengals pass defense they've been suspect all year. Actually

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Speaker 6: to the slot because a lot of time you think

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Speaker 6: about the Bengals and you think their pass defense, you

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Speaker 6: think it's a lot of the outside, it's actually been

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Speaker 6: mostly to the slot. Sixteen touchdowns allowed two slot pass cutris.

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Speaker 6: That's the most in the NFL. Now, a lot of

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Speaker 6: those were two tight ends. I mean four of those

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Speaker 6: came from that Steelers game when like all the tight

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Speaker 6: ends scored. But six of those touchdowns in the slot

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Speaker 6: have been scored in just the last four games. And

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Speaker 6: who is the Patriots wide receiver that plays the most snaps.

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Speaker 2: In the slot.

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Speaker 6: That is de Mario Douglas.

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Speaker 1: So I will take him at plus four twenty five.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that means you can't get your eften jism everywhere either,

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Speaker 4: because he'll probably be an active if Booty is back.

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Speaker 1: So it's just yeah, booties are popping everyone.

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Speaker 4: Oh man, Yeah, this is Patriots, got a lot of

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Speaker 4: interesting names. I mean, wow, all right, I'm just gonna

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Speaker 4: move on before I get caught up in that.

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Speaker 1: Colts chief good game here.

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Speaker 4: So I wrote down two guys for this one because

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Speaker 4: I'm showing value on two guys. Now one of them,

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Speaker 4: this first one might end up scratching it. Just stay

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Speaker 4: tuned in the action at because he is dealing with

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Speaker 4: a little bit of an injury that could change things.

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Speaker 1: But I like Daniel Jones at plus three fifty.

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Speaker 4: The Chiefs have allowed five rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks alone.

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Speaker 4: They've allowed just six, six and two to running backs,

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Speaker 4: wide receivers, and tight ends. So like that is pretty

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Speaker 4: crazy splits. It's essentially, you know, like they're just as

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Speaker 4: likely to give up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback

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Speaker 4: as you know, a touchdown to any other position. In totality,

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Speaker 4: they're averaging about, you know, just under five per running back,

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Speaker 4: per wide receiver, and per tight end.

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Speaker 1: So it's a.

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Speaker 4: Kansas City is a great matchup to bet a quarterback

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Speaker 4: rushing against. Now, it's just, you know, if Jones is

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Speaker 4: dealing with an injury, that could change things a little

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Speaker 4: But a lot of times you see you know, quarterbacks

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Speaker 4: dealing with an injury and then they still go out

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Speaker 4: there and just got catch the defense off guard. So

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Speaker 4: I'm probably still going to play it. But also showing

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Speaker 4: a ton of value on Josh downs at plus three fifty,

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Speaker 4: And I think this is because of what Kerner was

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Speaker 4: alluding to, you know, last week, with Alex Pearce. He

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Speaker 4: was undervalued, he was due, and now that he's scored,

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Speaker 4: of course you're going to price up Taylor, Tyler Warren,

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Speaker 4: those guys, Pittman. So there's always gonna be one guy,

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Speaker 4: and in this week it's Josh Downs. Now he's been

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Speaker 4: money in the red zone. His red zone snaps are

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Speaker 4: trending up. It used to be more of the you know,

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Speaker 4: two tight end sets, but now he's getting about, you know,

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Speaker 4: seventy eighty in all some of some games, gotten all

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Speaker 4: of them in the.

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Speaker 1: Last few weeks.

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Speaker 4: And he already has three touchdowns in close and that's

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Speaker 4: you know, you don't think of Josh Downs as that

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Speaker 4: kind of player, but he's been really good just because

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Speaker 4: there's so much, so many weapons on this Coat's offense

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Speaker 4: that he gets a lot of covers that he can handle,

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Speaker 4: and he's one of the better route runners in the league.

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Speaker 1: So like him. And then on the chief.

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Speaker 4: Side, Xavier Worthy at plus two to fifty. The injury

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Speaker 4: scare de press his odds a little bit, but he's

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Speaker 4: more of a plus two hundred ish guy if he goes.

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Speaker 4: He's been a little bit unlucky when it comes to touchdowns.

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Speaker 4: And he's still capable of doing exactly what Rashid Rice

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Speaker 4: has been doing over the past few weeks. They're running

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Speaker 4: about the same route rate worthy he's actually a little

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Speaker 4: bit higher, about five percent higher. He could get those

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Speaker 4: rush uh you know that Russian usage in close. He

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Speaker 4: can get deep balls uh. And he can he can

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Speaker 4: get those little kind of gadget plays too, So a

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Speaker 4: lot of ways for him to score. It's only a

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Speaker 4: matter of time before he starts erupting again.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not going to buy into the injury news.

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Speaker 4: He was back, you know, at practice or it looks

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Speaker 4: like he's gonna be good to go. Obviously monitor it,

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Speaker 4: but I think he is going to be a little

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Speaker 4: bit undervalue now with Rashid Rice just kind of hogging

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Speaker 4: all the attention in Kelsey popping back up having a

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Speaker 4: resurgence as well. So uh, vikings at Packers. This is

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Speaker 4: another love to slate this week, Actually, Kerner, Oh man,

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Speaker 4: I'm kind of jealous at this one.

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Speaker 2: I gotta look at this one. This one's easy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Well, first of all, did you see the Packers injury

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Speaker 5: Every single wide receiver, including Bo Melton, who's a defensive

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Speaker 5: player now is questionable and Josh Jacobs is questionable. But

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Speaker 5: you know who's not questionable, our guy John Fitzpatrick.

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Speaker 2: Baby.

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Speaker 5: You know, last week I was kind of shocked. I

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Speaker 5: thought Luke Musgrave was gonna do a good job, you know,

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Speaker 5: stepping up for Tucker Craft who's out for the rest

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Speaker 5: of the season. But it was John Fitzpatrick lea rogged

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Speaker 5: him and led the tight end room and routes run rate.

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Speaker 5: So that's excellent news for Patrick here because he's already

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Speaker 5: you know, big bodied, red zone end zone threat. So

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Speaker 5: you know, I just like him even more now now

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Speaker 5: that we're I'm projecting him to lead the tight end

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Speaker 5: room en route.

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Speaker 2: So I think a plus five.

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Speaker 5: I know we were getting him at like, you know,

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Speaker 5: ten to one, twenty to one a few times earlier

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Speaker 5: this year, but I think even at plus by fifty's

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Speaker 5: he's showing some value just based on the recent usage trend.

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Speaker 5: And you know, on the Viking side, it's tricky because

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Speaker 5: j J. McCarthy is definitely holding this entire offense back,

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Speaker 5: so there's not a ton of value here. But I

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Speaker 5: do like Jordan Mason around plus four eighty. You know,

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Speaker 5: Aaron Jones is kind of operating more as the workhorse

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Speaker 5: back right now, but you know last week Mason did

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Speaker 5: end up having a sixteen yard rushing touchdown, And if

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Speaker 5: they do get down to the goal line, like if

387
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Speaker 5: JJ McCarthy is able to get them there, you know,

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Speaker 5: I think Mason would be the likely back to kind

389
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Speaker 5: of see goal line work. He has six carries inside

390
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,720
Speaker 5: the five to Aaron Jones one this year, so I

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Speaker 5: think he's kind of sinky here at plus four eighty

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Speaker 5: if I had to go with anybody on the Viking side.

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Speaker 1: So can I interest you?

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Speaker 4: And this is not the not the only time I'm

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Speaker 4: going to say this on this podcast, but can I

396
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Speaker 4: interest you in a three way tight end parway anytime

397
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Speaker 4: touchdown parway for the Green Bay Packers because we know

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Speaker 4: the Vikings just get a viscerated, Like every opponent seems

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Speaker 4: to want to play all their tight ends against the Vikings.

400
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Speaker 4: And Lafloor actually did come out and say we didn't

401
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Speaker 4: get musk Grave enough snaps last week, so we got

402
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Speaker 4: to get it more involved. So I think Musgrave is

403
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Speaker 4: actually probably a better bet than he looks, just based

404
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Speaker 4: on last week, and then why we scored last week,

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Speaker 4: and it was playing a lot of out like he

406
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Speaker 4: was getting an uptick too, because they went with a

407
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Speaker 4: lot of you know, they went with some one three.

408
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Speaker 4: So I actually like Fitzpatrick while we and must Grave

409
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Speaker 4: all to score in his game round robin it maybe

410
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Speaker 4: you hit two out of three.

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Speaker 1: But I think I'm going to play that. So can

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Speaker 1: I interest you in that?

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Speaker 5: Or you're just sticking I know you're getting I would

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Speaker 5: rather do that with the Rams. That's probably the other

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Speaker 5: team that.

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Speaker 2: You mention that.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think the like, I do like the idea,

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Speaker 5: but I think the Rams, especially, you could definitely interest

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Speaker 5: me in that.

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Speaker 4: Okay, okay, fair enough, And I mean I guess the

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Speaker 4: Raymond is probably always a dark horse, and and the

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Speaker 4: Bengals might get g SICKI back, I mean, there's some

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Speaker 4: options this week.

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Speaker 2: The Steelers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, the Steelers. Oh yeah, they're I mean though

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Speaker 1: it's rude.

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Speaker 2: So it would be Fau and sam Sample obviously Hudson

428
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Speaker 2: and Hudson.

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Speaker 1: Now he would get benched, I think, give me, well,

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 5: Maybe yeah, well again, I'm assuming Ga sick, he's out,

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Speaker 5: but if he were turns you know, Hudson was the

433
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Speaker 5: guy that's popping in my model. But yeah, who the

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Speaker 5: hell knows. We don't even know who's the quarterback for

435
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Speaker 5: them this week at this point.

436
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 4: Ah yeah, I mean, but it's good. It's a good

437
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 4: don't know. It's not like the Browns who didn't know

438
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 4: and then it was should do or Sanders and it could.

439
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 1: Be really zappy and yeah, all right, let's see who Oh.

440
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 4: Speaking of Browns, Jill, I know you love the touchdown

441
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 4: potential in Browns at Raiders indoors you got two or

442
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,880
Speaker 4: just the I mean, they are professional quarterbacks. I guess

443
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 4: you can say that much.

444
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 1: Who are you going here?

445
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 6: Well, I mean full disclaim. You know, we talked about,

446
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 6: Oh I wish I would have got that game, like

447
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 6: this was the game when I was like, oh man,

448
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 6: this one's gonna be tough because I didn't really love

449
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 6: the touchdown value on I almost bet no touchdown, but

450
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 6: I was like, that's too boring, Like it was only

451
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 6: like fifty to one, Whereas I think the touchdowns that

452
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 6: we have to look at is Michael Mayer at five

453
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,400
Speaker 6: to one. I think right now for him, he's still

454
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 6: playing over seventy percent of snaps, he's running routes over

455
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 6: fifty percent of the time, it's pretty high for a

456
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 6: tight end two, and you know, against man coverage and

457
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 6: single high safety, he actually leads the team in targets

458
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 6: for a rever round against both of those coverages. And

459
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 6: we talk about a lot of those teams running like

460
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 6: a lot of tight end sets, like they're actually running

461
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,399
Speaker 6: twelve personnel at a top seven rate right now. So

462
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 6: I like Mayer to continue to kind of get fed

463
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 6: anything over five to one. I know it's a tougher matchup,

464
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 6: but you know, that's the reason why we get in

465
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 6: those odds. On the brown side, though, this was a

466
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 6: toss up between Harold Fannin and David Nijoku, and once

467
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 6: I dove deeper into the stats, I realized, I'm just

468
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:36,880
Speaker 6: gonna take Najoku at six to one. He just has

469
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 6: longer odds, mainly because when you look at the data,

470
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,160
Speaker 6: they're pretty much identical. They're playing nearly the same amount

471
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,120
Speaker 6: of snaps, running the same amount of routes, same kind

472
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 6: of efficiency against cover one or you know, or man

473
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 6: coverage is just shder Sanders is going to be the

474
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 6: one who's that quarterback, and there's gonna be a good

475
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,919
Speaker 6: chance that he might finish with minus passing yards by

476
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 6: the time we finish this game. So with the rate

477
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 6: is that defense playing most zone in the NFL and

478
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 6: the jok who's target rate is just way higher versus

479
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 6: zone than man defense and more and fan and is

480
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 6: kind of more even on both sides. So I'm just

481
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 6: gonna take the tight end with the longer odds at

482
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 6: six to one and pray that Shuder Sanders just does

483
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 6: not look as bad as he did last week.

484
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you might have to pivot to fan

485
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 4: in anyway, because the Joku did miss the first two

486
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 4: practices of the week. I'm now it isn't a joke,

487
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 4: so probably, yeah, he might just be back, but there

488
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 4: is a chance they sit him out. But I gotta

489
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,199
Speaker 4: I gotta also throw the curenter real quick. I know

490
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,719
Speaker 4: you project odds on like you know, pick sixes and

491
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 4: just defensive touchdowns. This has gotta be one of the

492
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 4: highest ever, right, I mean, because like should or Sanders

493
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 4: just goes backwards, so the ball is always going to

494
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 4: be like if he fumbles, like that ball is going

495
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 4: is going to be like in the other end zone.

496
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 4: I feel like any any thoughts on the Raiders odds

497
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:49,719
Speaker 4: are scoring.

498
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 6: Yeah, fifty right now, I'm seeing right now with DraftKings

499
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 6: for that.

500
00:22:54,800 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think you know, Pick six potential, Sack Bull potential,

501
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 5: yep Raheemo return touchdown potential, Trey Tucker punt return potential,

502
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 5: and the Browns are gonna be punting it quite a bit.

503
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 2: So you know what, you're.

504
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 6: Gonna add that as a third pick. I'm mad that

505
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 6: as a third pick. Now, Raiders Special Teams fifty.

506
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 4: We're not going to go back to the trade Tucker

507
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 4: Well because you know I was, I was hiding him

508
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 4: last week, and you know he did, he did what

509
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 4: he had to do, even in a disgusting game. But

510
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 4: this week it's got to be the Raiders d Like

511
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 4: I just it's just it's like one of those things

512
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 4: where it's just so obvious that you don't want to

513
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,439
Speaker 4: do it, but it's like should or Standers hasn't had

514
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 4: like a positive net passing game in like eight quarters.

515
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 1: Like it's like, it's it's really bad. I like it.

516
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 1: I like it.

517
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 4: Thank you, Thank you Kerner, you got Joe convinced. You

518
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 4: got to add it to the say now we're just

519
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 4: now we're just cooking here.

520
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 1: Now.

521
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 4: Now we're freaking cooking and you put me onto the

522
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 4: most angle too, so now it's like even more likely.

523
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 1: Got to track that as a full unit. Let's go.

524
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, let's go to the.

525
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 4: Cardinals and the Jags. I'm not going with Greg Dortch again.

526
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 4: As much as I want to the matchups a little different.

527
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 4: I do like the Cardinals matchup here. You know, Bresett's

528
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 4: been playing really well, multiple touchdowns and all five of

529
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 4: us start, so good to go with some of the

530
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 4: one of the pass catchers that weas are in Arizona,

531
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 4: and it's gonna be the chalk. It's gonna be Trade

532
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 4: McBride at minus one seventeen. Jacksonville zone heavy, and every

533
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 4: tight end's been scoring against them. Dunton shows Brock Bowers

534
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 4: three times, Ferguson Kelsey, Jake Tanjis and that's all since

535
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 4: week four. So I'll probably play his just single touchdown.

536
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 4: But since we're doing the show here and I know

537
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 4: people like the long odds, let's go at two plus

538
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 4: touchdowns at plus five fifty for Trade McBride here, because

539
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 4: m brissette has been throwing multiple touchdowns every start, and

540
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 4: the Jags did give up a three touchdown game. To Bowers,

541
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 4: which means McBride would get five by my calculation.

542
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, and he.

543
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,199
Speaker 4: Did throw for four hundred and fifty two yards you

544
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 4: know yards touchdowns. We have some correlation there too. So

545
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 4: like me some Trey McBride this week. I mean, just man,

546
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 4: who would have known Jacoby Brissett would just be what

547
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 4: unlocked his touchdown potential from like essentially no touchdowns in

548
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 4: a year to five? Was it five straight weeks and

549
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 4: minus juice touchdown odds?

550
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 1: Really happy for Trey McBride. Parker Washington is gonna be

551
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: my choice on the Jaguars.

552
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 4: I was hoping we'd have more quality about the tight

553
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 4: end situation because I think, you know, tight ends are

554
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 4: a good option to take against this Arizona Cardinals defense,

555
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 4: which is also pretty you know, safe zone heavy, likes

556
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 4: to keep things in front of them. They will give

557
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 4: up touchdowns tight ends, but they also give up touchdowns

558
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 4: to you know, kind of like interior receivers, little speedier

559
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 4: guys jsn Flinoy Josh Downs and Hunter Renfro score twice

560
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 4: so against them. So Parker Washington is kind of that

561
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 4: guy for the Jaguars.

562
00:25:58,119 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 1: I think he's.

563
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 4: Still pretty safe for about eighty to ninety five percent

564
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 4: route run rate. Even when Brian Thomas Junior does return,

565
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 4: it's been Patrick kind of taking those one for one

566
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 4: snaps from Thomas. So it should still be Washington with

567
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 4: Thomas and then Jacoby Myers as the top three receivers.

568
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 4: So uh, it's just with all the other uncertainty as

569
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 4: far as who exactly is going to play. And then

570
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 4: they you know, Tootin and Etian are kind of juiced

571
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 4: up because they they had they've been getting it going lately.

572
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 4: So I think it's a good spot to take a

573
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 4: Jaguars pass catcher again.

574
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: I think they could be trailing.

575
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 4: You know, it's not in Jacksonville now, they got to

576
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 4: go across the country and then they're not facing Justin

577
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 4: Herbert who.

578
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 1: Just just lost the plot last week.

579
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 4: So like Washington at plus two, forty, McBride for two

580
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 4: at plus five fifty Falcons at Saints, and Kerner, I

581
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 4: am jealous of you for.

582
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 2: This game too.

583
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 5: I know I was like I was hoping I would

584
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 5: get this game. I just knew I didn't have to

585
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 5: look at the odds. I knew I was going to

586
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 5: be on two long shots here, and sure enough, I

587
00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 5: got it, and sure enough the odds were bad. I'm

588
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 5: showing value on him, i should say. And first up

589
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 5: for the Falcons, gotta go with caderrel Hodge here at

590
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 5: eleven to one.

591
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 2: Are you kidding me?

592
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 5: Drake Go London is expected to miss this week and

593
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 5: Hodge was really operating as his backup last game, so

594
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 5: when London went down, you know, Hodge was literally a

595
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 5: one for one replacement for him. As you know we

596
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 5: talked about ray baon. I'm expecting Casey Washington to get

597
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 5: a bit more work than he saw last game once

598
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 5: London went down, so it might be a little bit

599
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 5: more of a committee. But Hodge should see the biggest

600
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 5: increase in snaps here, and he's more of a downfilled,

601
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:41,679
Speaker 5: big playoff side guy anyway. So I'm projecting this closer

602
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 5: to plus seven hundred, so I like the value of

603
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 5: getting here at eleven to one. On the other side,

604
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 5: you know, this one's a no brainer for me. Devon

605
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 5: Veley at plus four hundred. You know, he saw a

606
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 5: huge increase in snaps falling Rashid Shaheed's trade, as we expected,

607
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 5: but he was out there for every little Tyler shuck

608
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 5: drop back, so he had one hundred percent routes run rate.

609
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 5: Can't ask for more than that. Also, they cut Brandon Cooks,

610
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 5: who that might hurt him because he was just you know,

611
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 5: cardio king out there, just you know, wasting away. So

612
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 5: maybe they're gonna put who the hell Mason Tipton, Kevin

613
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 5: Austin Junior, who knows?

614
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: But those yeah, those would be the three and four

615
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 1: right now, Yes, right, you have correct.

616
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 5: Poor Cardio Kings anyway, and Valley's you know, big bodied

617
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 5: kind of guy that they traded for before the season,

618
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 5: so they're gonna want to see him a ton of

619
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 5: the rest of the way. And I thought Tyler Shuck

620
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 5: looked excellent in his his last start before the bye,

621
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 5: so I think he does elevate this offense. He's probably

622
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 5: gonna scramble less than Rattler, so that's gonna lead to,

623
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 5: you know, more pass attempts. So love Vley here at

624
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 5: four to one.

625
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, Bailey was about to be my favorite other week

626
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 4: until I saw Tinsley and then on the Action pod stuck.

627
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 4: You liked Veyley so much that he ended up going Vayley.

628
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 4: I've already bet them both. I love like this Vley

629
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 4: with one hundred percent snap rate, trading for him in

630
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 4: the preseason, cutting Cooks, trading Shaheed. I mean, they are

631
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 4: clearly invested in this guy and so, and now they

632
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 4: have a better quarterback and it's kind of going under

633
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 4: the radar a little bit. So this is just like

634
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 4: a perfect, perfect situation for him. I mean, I don't

635
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 4: I don't know if I remember a touchdown bet that

636
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 4: I like more than Bailey in an Tinsley, So like,

637
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 4: I mean, just just a smash And yeah, I totally

638
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 4: agree with Hodge. You know, he had he was at

639
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 4: one for one replacement and Washington has been it for Mooney.

640
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 4: So there's a chance Hodge gets you know, at least

641
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 4: the David Sills full like route rate and like because

642
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 4: Sales I think last game actually ran one hundred percent too.

643
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 4: But he's priced up and he he could get targets

644
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 4: with Cousins. But remember Cousins and Hodge had some chemistry

645
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 4: going back to last year as well. Didn't Hodge have

646
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 4: that walk off against I believe it or the tying

647
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 4: or something. These are a tying touchdown or a walk

648
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 4: off in twenty twenty four for with Cousins under center,

649
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 4: So they do have some chemistry there. Yeah it was

650
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 4: sixty something yard touch touchdown. Yeah yeah, yeah, so yeah,

651
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 4: So at least there's that if cousins can can like

652
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 4: take a hand, you know, if you could actually hike

653
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 4: the ball and drop back a few steps and release

654
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 4: the ball just.

655
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 1: A few Kirk, please please, Kurt ah.

656
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 4: Man, we got Easton stick waiting in the wings. But uh,

657
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 4: Jill oh, this is such a good touchdown slate. I mean,

658
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 4: there are just so many kind of like matchup based

659
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 4: plays and just got like, I love this one too.

660
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 4: Eagles at Cowboys should be an interesting one. You know,

661
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,719
Speaker 4: we saw this opening week of the year. There's all

662
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 4: this chatter about Jalen Hurts and the Cowboys made moves

663
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 4: on defense they might be a little bit better. So

664
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 4: a ton of things kind of going on moving parts here.

665
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 4: Who are looking at to score touchdowns in this one?

666
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 6: Well, I will say the Cowboys have gotten a little

667
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 6: reinforcements on defense, but not quite. I mean they didn't

668
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 6: get the leak hooker back, but not quite in the

669
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 6: secondary right Like their past defense is still pretty bad.

670
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 6: Thirtieth in defense of Dvoa versus the past, with twenty

671
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 6: three passing touchdowns allowed, seventeen of those two wide receivers.

672
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna go with Devonte Smith. He's around plus

673
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 6: one ninety.

674
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: Now.

675
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 6: Part of the reason why I wanted to go with

676
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 6: him is because if you look at the recent defensive

677
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 6: output from them, they've been playing a little bit more

678
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 6: man coverage than normal. Back in Week one, for example,

679
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 6: they played I believe it was like ninety eight percent

680
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 6: zone coverage in Week one, and they've been playing zone

681
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 6: for most of the year, but it was only like

682
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 6: in the last couple of weeks before they played the

683
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 6: Raiders they started playing a little bit more man and

684
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 6: they went back to zone this past week against the Raiders.

685
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 6: So yeah, I think they're going to go back to

686
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 6: that zone front. And if they do, it's Smith who

687
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 6: has the highest targets run versus own coverages over AJ

688
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 6: Brown or Dallas Goddard. It's part of the reason why

689
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 6: I bet on Deavante versus the Packers instead of AJ

690
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 6: Brown another team that plays a lot of zone coverage.

691
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 6: And you look at Davonte's Smith's game logs this year

692
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 6: and who he has done well against, Packers, Vikings, Rams,

693
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 6: All three of those teams top ten in zone coverage rates,

694
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 6: So as long as we don't see a repeat of

695
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 6: Week one where it's just five rushing touchdowns combined, and

696
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 6: I think Davonte is going to get a score here.

697
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 6: So that's who I would bet on the Eagle side. Now,

698
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 6: this one is probably going to require you to take

699
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 6: a little bit of a leap, but I'm going to

700
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 6: take Dak Prescott to score a touchdown here. He's around

701
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 6: plus nine point fifty, all right, So obviously, you know Kerner,

702
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 6: the Mall Santa label, you know, gets thrown around a

703
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 6: lot about Dak, and for good reason. But I think

704
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 6: that the stakes of this game is going to make

705
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 6: him scramble more because this is the biggest regular season

706
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 6: game of the year for the Cowboys. It's got the

707
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 6: highest stakes because if they lose the Eagles all but

708
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 6: clinch the division. They're already pretty much there, but this

709
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 6: will pretty much clinch the division for him and Dallas

710
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 6: will essentially be out of the playoffs in the NFC.

711
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 6: So this is the types of games where you want

712
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 6: to bet on Dak to scramble and score because of

713
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 6: those types of stakes and this Eagles pass defense they've

714
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 6: been so tough to this year. On opposing quarterbacks, like

715
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 6: even Dak in Week one. Nine of eleven opposing quarterbacks

716
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 6: have thrown for less than two hundred yards on this defense.

717
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 6: So I'm not sure the passing offense is going to

718
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 6: be as efficient as as that we've seen, you know,

719
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 6: in some games where they're just throwing it down the

720
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 6: field on everybody. But I do think they will have

721
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 6: a few drives where they can move the ball. But

722
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 6: I think if they get inside the five yard line,

723
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 6: this is one of those games where Dak Prescott will

724
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 6: actually put his body on the line and scramble for

725
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 6: that touchdown. So I had expected odds around this for

726
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 6: a Brown, like plus six fifty. So I love this

727
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 6: bet at plus nine to fifty for Dak Prescott to

728
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 6: score a rushing touchdown on this Eagles defense.

729
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it makes a lot of sense because the Eagles,

730
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 4: you know, they can play man and they probably will,

731
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 4: and you know, the Cowboys have had a lot of

732
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 4: successes ripping up zones this year, but against man that

733
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 4: you know that could that could help Prescott, you know,

734
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 4: run with the defense kind of turn with their backturn,

735
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 4: which I think it would be the best time run

736
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 4: a run. And I totally agree with you on on

737
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 4: on Smith as well. I think this is this is

738
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 4: a great game to kind of pick your spots here

739
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 4: with these with the touchdowns because they make just there's

740
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 4: just very matchup oriented and you're getting some really good

741
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 4: odds on them because you know this Eagles team is

742
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 4: always going.

743
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 1: To fluctuate from week to week.

744
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 4: You got to play zone against them though, if you can,

745
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 4: because that's what Hurt struggles against.

746
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 1: So of course the.

747
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,399
Speaker 4: Cowboys, I would think if they don't play zone, I mean,

748
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 4: they're just asking for it.

749
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 6: If they play man. AJ Brown's going for two touchdowns

750
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 6: on one hundred yards, So I don't think that's a

751
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 6: good idea to play man coverage against that Eagles offense.

752
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, and another thing that helps Smith is Wayne Johnson

753
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 4: out less time for Hurts to go deep, which is

754
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 4: more AJ Brown's thing, but also might need Goddard to

755
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 4: stay in and ship a little bit more. He might

756
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 4: not get as cleanly into his routes. Who does that

757
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 4: leave Devontae Smith? So love the call there. Before we continue,

758
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,720
Speaker 4: it is that time of year. We have the best

759
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 4: deal on Action Pro as part of our Black Friday

760
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761
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762
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763
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764
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,319
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765
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766
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,279
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767
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768
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,560
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769
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:23,480
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770
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:27,920
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772
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Speaker 4: an annual subscription. All right, it's time for our favorite

773
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 4: Sunday Anytime touchdown parlay presented by draft Kings. Before we

774
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 4: get to the Sunday and Monday night games, We're gonna

775
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 4: go with just our favorite touchdown score for the daytime

776
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 4: early window eight window Sunday Afternoon Slate. Sean Kerner. I'll

777
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 4: start with you who were own with for week twelve.

778
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a no brainer for me. Aj Barner

779
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 5: plus two fifty. I already hinted at this being my

780
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 5: favorite touchdown buy of the week, but seeing a ton

781
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 5: of usage as a tight end coming off a season

782
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 5: high eighty percent routes run rate. But more importantly, he

783
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 5: is their ball carrier and their tush push play. It's

784
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,720
Speaker 5: been very effective, just as effective as Jalen Hurts Eagles version,

785
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 5: and they let him have a crack at it on

786
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 5: the goal line the other week and he had a

787
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 5: rushing touchdown, So I think we're going to see a

788
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 5: few more of those going forward. He just has massive

789
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 5: upside in this market because of it. So give me

790
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 5: a j Barner plus two to fifty.

791
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 4: Yeah. I love that he can tap into those rushing

792
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,919
Speaker 4: touchdowns against the Titans because they do give up a ton,

793
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 4: all right, Jill, who we roll a Week twelve? Anytime touchdown?

794
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, Davonte Smith. I think he's going to score a

795
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 6: touchdown on this Cowboys secondary. I don't think that they've

796
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 6: improved enough, and I think the Eagles passing game will

797
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 6: actually get a little bit of a boost playing against

798
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 6: the Cowboys secondary and actually have some good completions downfield.

799
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,479
Speaker 6: So I think Davante Smith at plus one to eighty,

800
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:56,959
Speaker 6: that's who.

801
00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 4: I like in this spot, I'm gonna row with professional

802
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 4: touchdown scorer Mitchell Tinsley at four to one. If you

803
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 4: haven't seen themcore touchdowns, look them up. As you mentioned

804
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 4: Jill a bunch of highlight reel kind of touchdown catches

805
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 4: already in his young career, had one earlier in the year.

806
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 4: Also had a couple in thee preseason against the Commanders.

807
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 4: I believe it was so I love him in this

808
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 4: spot has upside to just be a one for one

809
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 4: Chase replacement, but either way, it should be that number

810
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 4: three receiver and an option in the red zone. Your

811
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 4: parway Tinsley, Smith Barner together on DraftKings and you get

812
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 4: forty six to one odds. I think this is the

813
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 4: second time we've had a forty six to one. Oh

814
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 4: we had one on a Thursday as well, So yeah,

815
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 4: we're getting We're getting some nice odds here from Draft Kings.

816
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 4: That was our favorite Week twelve anytime Touchdown Parway presented

817
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 4: by DraftKings. All right, let's get into Sunday night football.

818
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 4: We got the Bucks going to LA to take on

819
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,839
Speaker 4: the Rams. I'll have a right up for this one

820
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 4: Action Network later in the week. Kerner let's let's talk

821
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 4: about some tight ends.

822
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Terrence Ferguson here at plus

823
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 5: five twenty five. You know, Tyler Higby place on the

824
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 5: ir with his ankle injury. Still expect the Rams to

825
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:20,399
Speaker 5: use you know, heavy three tight end personnel. So I think,

826
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 5: you know, all three of them are going to get

827
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 5: a boost. But I think, especially their second round rookie

828
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 5: Ferguson should see an upticking usage as well. And they've

829
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 5: already been using him as a downfield threat. Fifty four

830
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 5: percent of his targets this year have been twenty plus

831
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 5: yards downfield. That's absolutely insane for anybody, let alone a

832
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 5: tight end. So he could score from you know, anywhere

833
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 5: on the field of that kind of usage, and you know,

834
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 5: around the goal line as well. So I like Ferguson

835
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 5: here at plus five twenty five.

836
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, he has upside now to get a lot more

837
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 4: red zone snaps because that's the one thing that's been

838
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 4: missing from his game. With Higbee, it's Higby, Parkinson and

839
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 4: Allen have been the three guys in the red zone.

840
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 4: So I love Ferguson, love the talent, you know, he

841
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 4: in his you know, short stint, you know playing in

842
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,799
Speaker 4: the preseason, even he really pops off the screen, Sean

843
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 4: McVay usually knows what he's doing with these, you know,

844
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 4: mid round skill position picks. So really like Ferguson, I'll

845
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:16,760
Speaker 4: talk some more about the other guys in a second

846
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 4: with Jill.

847
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 1: Who do you like for Bucks Rams?

848
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 6: I mean I doubted him the first time he scored

849
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 6: a touchdown and now he continues to keep playing well

850
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 6: and in this offense Ted Johnson four touchdowns over the

851
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 6: last five games. For this guy, Baker Mayfield is consistently

852
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 6: looking for him and Abuka in the end zone, so

853
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 6: I think he can get another touchdown on this Ram

854
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 6: secondary is.

855
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 1: This one you've already played?

856
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 4: Are you holding out for like the Godwin because the

857
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 4: odds could actually get longer technically if godwins ruled in right, well.

858
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 6: I have played him like right now, I'm seeing odds

859
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 6: like you know, plus three fifty is right now. So

860
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 6: I put a little bit of money on him to

861
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 6: start off, But I like to let the market mature

862
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 6: a little bit, see who's going to be playing, and

863
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 6: let the odds kind of fluctuate from there. But right now,

864
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 6: if it's based on the idea that Godwin's out, Evans

865
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 6: is out. Tess Johnson right now might as well be

866
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 6: wide receiver two in this offense and a passing offense

867
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 6: that continues to be very efficient. So I love him

868
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:10,720
Speaker 6: at even at plus two to sixty.

869
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I would like him if Godman's in.

870
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 4: I'm just saying the market might actually like the odds

871
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 4: might get longer if he's officially in, So that's something

872
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:20,439
Speaker 4: i'd watch out for as well. We might even get

873
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 4: better odds on this one. And then I'm gonna go

874
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 4: with Davis Allen officially plus three seventy among the team leaders,

875
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 4: right with Parkinson, you know, and Devonte Adams in red

876
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 4: zone snaps on the season last four games especially, you know,

877
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 4: he's really come on, He's caught three touchdowns already in

878
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 4: the red zone. Kind of goes under the radar a

879
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 4: little bit. But I like the tight ends in this

880
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 4: spot because Tampa Bay number two and rush defensive success rate.

881
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 4: They could stuff Blake Corn three straight times on the

882
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 4: goal line. Where has that happened before? Maybe even Kyrad

883
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 4: Williams they could stuff, but current, I mean, do we

884
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 4: just go with all of them because Kobe Parkinson's actually

885
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 4: longer odds than Allen.

886
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 1: He's plus four hundred.

887
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 4: The only reason I didn't want to go Parkinson again

888
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 4: is because he already scored twice in a row. Allen

889
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 4: has scored twice in a row. Ferguson hasn't yet, so

890
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 4: he's gonna score twice in a row. But like Allen

891
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 4: hasn't scored twice in a row this time around yet,

892
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 4: so but he'd done it earlier in the year. So

893
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 4: I feel like McVeigh isn't going Is he going three straight?

894
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 4: I don't know what Parkinson, but all these tight ends

895
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 4: are in a great spot. Can we just go with

896
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 4: the all three ram tight end? And we'll throw test

897
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 4: in too, But can we just go to all.

898
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 1: Three like that?

899
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 2: I think this is absolutely the case.

900
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yes, all right, because I mean this is

901
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 4: this is a smash spot for for the tight ends.

902
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 4: I think the Bucks will might have to, you know,

903
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 4: help on the outside a little bit more than usual too,

904
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 4: if you know, Dean is banged up and whatnot. So, uh,

905
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 4: there's the tight ends are really in a good spot here.

906
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 1: Uh you parway all those together and you yet one

907
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 1: hundred to one odds on draftings. So this is uh spicy.

908
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 1: I but yeah, I think you got to invest in.

909
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 4: I might round robin it too, like this is just

910
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 4: one of these rams tight ends to scoring maybe two

911
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 4: potential all three. So with that, sihead, let's get to

912
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,800
Speaker 4: the last game on the slate. Speaking of tight end scoring,

913
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 4: George Kittle a couple of tuddies last week for the

914
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 4: forty nine ers and brock Party's return. They are hosting

915
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 4: the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night. The Carolina Panthers of

916
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 4: four hundred and forty eight passing yards Bryce's young team

917
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 4: record last week against the Falcons, who man, I mean

918
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 4: talk about I mean they were number one pass defense

919
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 4: coming in, so they're bawling out.

920
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 1: This is just a this is should be a fun one. Kerner.

921
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 1: Who do you like here?

922
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Brian Robinson Junior here at

923
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 5: plus four to fifty. He's just been the more efficient

924
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 5: runner than CMC this year. And you know, the Niners

925
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 5: have been giving him more work lately, I think partly

926
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 5: because of that, but they, I mean, they traded it

927
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 5: for him before the season, so it would make sense

928
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 5: to get him more work, and he has seen more

929
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 5: work when they do win games. He's averaging six point

930
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 5: three carries a game and their wins and just three

931
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 5: point three and the losses, so you know, pretty much

932
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 5: double the work. And you know, he always profiles as

933
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 5: a solid, you know, short yardage, goal line type back.

934
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:09,399
Speaker 5: He had a goal line score a couple of games ago,

935
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,399
Speaker 5: had like a you know, longer touchdown run three games ago.

936
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:16,280
Speaker 2: So I like b rob here at plus four fifty.

937
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's starting to get about about thirty percent of

938
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 4: the backfield carries, whereas earlier in the year CMC was

939
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 4: getting you know, eighty five ninety percent. You know, b

940
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 4: Robin maybe get a drive or or you know, just

941
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:32,319
Speaker 4: really a breather spot mostly, And now he's actually mixing

942
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:35,359
Speaker 4: in and Shanahan has confirmed that it's because he is

943
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 4: playing well. He's, uh, you know, he's having good practices.

944
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 4: Forty nine is practice harder than like any team in

945
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 4: the league. So that's important there. So love that call, Jill,

946
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 4: who you're looking at for Niners Panthers on Monday Night?

947
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 6: Going with my guy Juwan Jennings. At this point, over

948
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 6: the last five games, he has led the Niners in

949
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 6: targets in all but one game, the only game he didn't.

950
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 6: Christian McCaffrey was actually the one who led them in

951
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 6: targets up. So that's your showing you what kind offense

952
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 6: they're running. But right now he is the wide receiver

953
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 6: one in this offense. Brock Pardy mac Jones, it doesn't matter.

954
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:08,800
Speaker 6: He has been the focal point. He's a big body

955
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 6: target in the end zone. So I really like him

956
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 6: to get another touchdown on this Panthers defense.

957
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 4: I gotta go to my guy, Xavier Leguett, I know

958
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 4: he's a little banged up, says he's gonna play. I

959
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 4: don't think we have, you know, too much information yet,

960
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 4: so his odds are way longer than I think they

961
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 4: should be at plus four hundred.

962
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 2: Uh.

963
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: This guy has been trending up.

964
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 4: You know, he's getting a kind of that that full

965
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 4: time number two receiver role with Cocher in the slot

966
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 4: and Teed you know, taking coverage on the other side.

967
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 1: So it's a really good spot for me.

968
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 4: He's seeing more downfield targets as well, which I think

969
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 4: suits him, and he's able to use some of that

970
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:48,840
Speaker 4: that speeding athleticism and you know, caught a.

971
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 1: Long touchdown last week.

972
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 4: So like we get I think They're going to continue

973
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 4: to kind of involve him, and he's going to continue

974
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 4: to produce because Ted McMillan on the other side, is

975
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 4: always going to be, you know, that guy who's going

976
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,919
Speaker 4: to draw the most defensive tension, and that just leaves

977
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 4: will get in a spot where on the field a

978
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 4: ton and the most athletic other guy in the Panthers,

979
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 4: because I mean, you have all these tight ends kind

980
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 4: of mixing in. You know, Gauto's mostly going to be

981
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 4: a runner at this point, and Bryce is small, so

982
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:17,760
Speaker 4: he's not going to run rush for that many touchdowns,

983
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 4: So they really get dark Horse to be maybe the

984
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 4: Panthers leader in tight touchdowns the rest of season. But

985
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 4: either way, like them against the Niners here at four

986
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 4: to one, so you got b Rob plus four to fifty,

987
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 4: you got Jennings at plus one ninety five, you got

988
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 4: Laget at Florida one. Parlay those together on draftings and

989
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 4: you get seventy to one odds. Really juicy parlways on

990
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 4: this show. It might be the longest odds of the

991
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 4: year if I'm not mistaken, but gotta go back and

992
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 4: check that. But either way, hopefully you guys enjoyed this

993
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 4: as I mentioned will as these anytime touchdown part maybe

994
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 4: I didn't mention, but we'll as these anytime touchdown par

995
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 4: parlay Express account in the action that we're app so

996
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 4: be sure to follow parlay Express. That's where we post

997
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 4: a lot of our long bets and things like that.

998
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 4: So go have some fun, all right. That's gonna do

999
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 4: it for NFL Week twelve Touchdown show here on the

1000
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 4: Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings. Many thanks to Sean

1001
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:12,800
Speaker 4: Kerner and Jill. Many thanks to you out there for listening.

1002
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 4: Have a happy Thanksgiving. If you want to tell some

1003
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,280
Speaker 4: of the touchdown bets we discussed, find the quick slip

1004
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 4: link in the podcast and video description, or Visitaction network

1005
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Speaker 4: dot com slash bet now. If you haven't yet, check

1006
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 4: out our new AI quick Slip Bot on X. Just

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1008
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1009
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Speaker 4: quick slip link for you in a matter of seconds.

1010
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,319
Speaker 4: Be sure to subscribe to the pod so you don't

1011
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 4: miss an episode all year. We also got the Fantasy

1012
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 4: Flex with Kerner and I as well, three episodes a week.

1013
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 1: There.

1014
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,359
Speaker 4: You can find Sean on X at the underscribes Maker

1015
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 4: Joe is on x at g d A w G

1016
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 4: five zero zero zero g doub five thousand. I'm at

1017
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,240
Speaker 4: Chris raybond Reto.

1018
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 1: Same handles on the Action app. Downloaded until next time.

1019
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:55,959
Speaker 1: Let's get this money happy.

1020
00:46:55,960 --> 00:47:09,760
Speaker 3: Thanksgiving studs to the stud students, to the Saudi students,

1021
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 3: to the sub students for the same stud students, to

1022
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:15,239
Speaker 3: the su