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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go, throwing show. We're saying it's

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Speaker 2: a catch touch.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win. God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 2: You want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast Week ten NFL Betting Preview.

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Speaker 2: I am your host, Chris raybond In.

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Speaker 5: On today's show, we'll be breaking down our top six

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Speaker 5: spread bets in the Sunday six pack, giving you our

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Speaker 5: favorite over under, the week, favorite teaser pick, money line, underdog, parlay,

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Speaker 5: survivor pool pick. And of course we'll start by breaking

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Speaker 5: down the Thursday night football game.

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Speaker 2: But before we do, just.

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Speaker 5: A reminder download the free Action Network app for real

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Speaker 5: time odds, box scores, and the capability to track every

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Speaker 5: bet that you make. Now let's get into our Thursday

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Speaker 5: Night football preview.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 3: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 5: Tonight's matchup is the four and five LA Chargers going

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Speaker 5: to Oakland to play the four and four Raiders. Chargers

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Speaker 5: favored by one, getting sixty seven percent of the bets

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Speaker 5: sixty four percent of the money. The total currently sits

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Speaker 5: at forty nine with sixty percent of the bets sixty

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Speaker 5: six percent of the money on the over. And as always, hitter,

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Speaker 5: help me break down this game, all the games, the

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Speaker 5: Prime Minister of degenerate Nation, my guy stuck.

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Speaker 2: What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Hey, what's going on? Brother? Excited to get into this card.

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Speaker 3: Excited that I don't have to come on here and

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Speaker 3: face the music after a Raven's loss. So Ravens win

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Speaker 3: some feeling good after last week. One of the advantages

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Speaker 3: that the Ravens always have, just keep this in mind

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Speaker 3: for the playoffs, is like they run a unique offense, right,

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Speaker 3: It's the most unique offense in the NFL. So when

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Speaker 3: they play a team for the first time, it's unfamiliar.

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Speaker 3: And you know, the Patriots, they have their strength as

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Speaker 3: their corners and they can defend the pass offense when

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Speaker 3: you play the Ravens for a second time. And we

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Speaker 3: saw with the Chargers last year. They played the Chargers

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Speaker 3: in the regular season, then they played in the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: They made some adjustments and they shut down the Ravens

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Speaker 3: running game. You know, Lamar Jackson's also very nervous. Was

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Speaker 3: the first first paoff game ever. Blah blah blah. But

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Speaker 3: still keep that in mind for the defensive genius that

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Speaker 3: is Bill belichicking the Patriots' death if they meet again

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Speaker 3: in the playoffs. As a Ravens fan, you know, it

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Speaker 3: was great to get that win, but I know that

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Speaker 3: if they do meet in the playoffs, that game is

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Speaker 3: going to benefit the Patriots a lot.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, And speaking of good things for two teams, you know,

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Speaker 5: Chargers and Raiders, I think still alive in this AFC

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Speaker 5: playoff hunt. You know, four and four for the Raiders,

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Speaker 5: four and five for the Chargers. But this is come

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Speaker 5: an important game somewhat considering that you still have to

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Speaker 5: count on the Kansas City Chiefs to take hold of

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Speaker 5: that division. So you know, Chargers the short favorite on

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Speaker 5: the road in interstate, but on the road at not

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Speaker 5: really ever at home anyway, How do you feel about

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Speaker 5: this one?

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Speaker 3: Stuff? It's an interesting game. You know, these two teams,

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Speaker 3: they're in the playoff race right now, and one of

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Speaker 3: the reasons is because Patrick Mahomes got hurt. So you know,

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Speaker 3: it made the division race closer, but the Chiefs pulling

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Speaker 3: out that win and now getting Mahomes back, that division

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Speaker 3: should be theirs, you know, barring any other injuries. But

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Speaker 3: you know there's still both right there in the play

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Speaker 3: and the wildcard race. I mean, right now, the two

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Speaker 3: wildcards are the Bills and the Colts. You know, then

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Speaker 3: you have the Steelers, Raiders, Jags and Titans and Chargers

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Speaker 3: all mixed up. I mean they can easily beat out

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Speaker 3: that group. It's a toss up between a lot of

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Speaker 3: those teams. So there's going to be you know, two

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Speaker 3: very average teams probably that take this the final two

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Speaker 3: spots in the AFC playoff race. So it's obviously an

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Speaker 3: important game. And then also for tie breakers, I do

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Speaker 3: lean the over if I just on the surface, I

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Speaker 3: think I bet the Raiders over the last three weeks

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Speaker 3: because their offense is good. I think their top five

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Speaker 3: DVA rush and pass offense. It sucks their offensive line,

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Speaker 3: but Josh Jacobs is amazing, and you know, they have

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Speaker 3: two good solid receiver, they have a solid tight end

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Speaker 3: and they're just getting protection and their offensive line. Now

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Speaker 3: of along those lines, Trent Brown Rodney Hudson, where two

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Speaker 3: of their better offensive linemen are questionable. Now. They came

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Speaker 3: to practice today. There's their final practice report. They were questionable.

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Speaker 3: But if you're missing both of those guys, it might

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Speaker 3: be a little tougher. Having said that, their offense is

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Speaker 3: really good, their defense is terrible though, and now they

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Speaker 3: lost Ard and Key, you know, they have no pass

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Speaker 3: rush to speak of. They their corners are terrible. So

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Speaker 3: that's why I always like they're overs now. I generally

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Speaker 3: hate overs on Thursday night. There's just sloppy play and

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Speaker 3: injuries pop up and who knows who's going to play.

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Speaker 3: But the Raiders to me, right now, the market hasn't

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Speaker 3: adjusted enough to their offense being pretty good and their

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Speaker 3: defense is just it is a dream for opposing offenses

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Speaker 3: to play the NFL. If you're not getting if you

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Speaker 3: can't get pressured and you don't have to covers the corner,

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Speaker 3: I mean, you're gonna move the ball. And then on

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Speaker 3: the other side of the ball. The Chargers, you know,

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Speaker 3: I was on them last week against the Packers, and

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Speaker 3: this is it's one of those things. They start one

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Speaker 3: and four and now that then they're gonna win like

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Speaker 3: seven and eight, and then they're gonna need to win

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Speaker 3: like one of the last two to get into the

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Speaker 3: Rivers is gonna have the ball at the one yard line,

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Speaker 3: has to go nine nine yards to get into the

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Speaker 3: playoffs with like eighteen seconds ago. It's just who the

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Speaker 3: Chargers are. But they're playing a lot better now. You know,

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Speaker 3: the o'cun helps on the offensive line. You saw last

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Speaker 3: week that Gordon is starting to get up the speed.

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Speaker 3: You know, he missed all pre seas. You know, missed

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Speaker 3: off camp, preseason, you know, the first couple games. You know,

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Speaker 3: he's had four games under his belt. You know, so

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Speaker 3: they're gonna be able to move the ball on the

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Speaker 3: Raiders defense. I mean, most most teams can and I

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Speaker 3: think with Gordon getting up to speed using Eckler, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's it's a solid offense that's gonna be able to

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Speaker 3: do well. They have their own questions on defense, but

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Speaker 3: I will say they a lot of it is because

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Speaker 3: of injuries. A lot of injuries are all over the board.

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Speaker 3: The replacement players that are in are now, you know,

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Speaker 3: specifically in the corner, some linebackers, safety, all over the place.

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Speaker 3: They're playing a lot better. You know, they might get

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Speaker 3: some defensive tackles back looks like metdd and Jones, which

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Speaker 3: will help against the Raiders. This just feels like it's

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Speaker 3: the Chargers time. So I lean Chargers. I lean the over.

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Speaker 3: I may end up playing the Chargers. I want to

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Speaker 3: see if I can get any more intel in Brown

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Speaker 3: and Hudson. I don't think I'll be able to, but

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Speaker 3: I think the Chargers are this is the time they

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Speaker 3: just turn it on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so too.

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Speaker 5: I mean, at the end of the day, I think

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Speaker 5: you'd have to say the Chargers are the better team,

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Speaker 5: the one point favorite. So it's not like you're giving up.

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Speaker 5: You're laying much there. Thursday night favorites. It tends to

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Speaker 5: be a good spot just because the better team tends

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Speaker 5: to have an even bigger advantage most of the time

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Speaker 5: on the shorter weeks. So yeah, I think I lean

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Speaker 5: the Chargers, who probably will be a higher scoring game.

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Speaker 5: But again, I'm with you two on the under. These

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Speaker 5: Thursday night overs, I mean, you never know what you're

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Speaker 5: gonna expect.

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Speaker 2: We kind of see, we kind of saw it. It's

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Speaker 2: that time of the.

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Speaker 5: Season when teams are just starting to no show in

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Speaker 5: ladies huge eggs, So I could see it going either

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Speaker 5: way with the over under as we do every week,

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Speaker 5: we're gonna conclude the Thursday night football breakdown with the

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Speaker 5: coaches pep talk, and this week's pep talk comes to

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Speaker 5: us from police Chief Grady from the two thousand and

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Speaker 5: one film Super Troopers, and we're gonna dedicate this one

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Speaker 5: to the Los Angeles Chargers because if they lose this game,

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Speaker 5: they would be two down to Oakland in a lost column,

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Speaker 5: in a division, and in a playoff race that's still

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Speaker 5: up for grabs. So I think the Charges of the

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Speaker 5: team that needs to come out with a little more

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Speaker 5: desperation here.

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Speaker 3: Desperation is a stinky klown.

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Speaker 5: All right, stuck time for the main event, the Sunday

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Speaker 5: six Pack.

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Speaker 2: Let's get to it Thursday for action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 5: All right, last week, bad week for me, betting, I mean,

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Speaker 5: I just like teams just no showed for me.

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Speaker 2: Steelers barely covered.

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Speaker 5: But you're up by one point twenty six to twenty five.

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Speaker 2: For my number one pick.

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Speaker 5: You know, I'm kind of torn between two of the

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Speaker 5: picks that I have, but I think that I'm going

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Speaker 5: to go with what you know right now looks like

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Speaker 5: a pretty fail safe strategy, which you kind.

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Speaker 2: Of alluded to a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 5: But I'm gonna better against Mitch Trubisky because listen, I

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Speaker 5: think the Bears are going to be able to run

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Speaker 5: the ball with David Montgomery.

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Speaker 2: We saw Oak would do it last week.

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Speaker 5: But there's another situation where I think the Lions are

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Speaker 5: the better team. I think it'll be a lower scoring game, probably,

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Speaker 5: but give me the team with the better offense, Give

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Speaker 5: me the team with the better kicker in one of

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Speaker 5: these lower scoring windy games. You know, Chicago's defense hasn't

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Speaker 5: been quite up to the level that we've seen, and

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Speaker 5: their offense is just it's it's it's in disarray, you know.

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Speaker 5: You know they didn't win that game against the Chargers.

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Speaker 5: You know, if they can't muster more than sixteen seventeen

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Speaker 5: points with this offense, you know, even as good as

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Speaker 5: that defense is, talented as it is, you're not going

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Speaker 5: to be able to win any football games. Now, Detroit

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Speaker 5: isn't explosive offense, probably not will not be as explosive

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Speaker 5: in this game. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 5: if these teams, it's kind of a coin flip game.

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Speaker 5: As you can see about it the spread and if

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Speaker 5: it comes down to okay, we need to pick up

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Speaker 5: a first down on third down, make a convert, getting

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Speaker 5: the field goal range, make a field goal. All these

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Speaker 5: things favor Detroit. So you know, the one thing that

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Speaker 5: favored Chicago is the run game. But as we know,

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Speaker 5: run game just not as correlated to final point differential

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Speaker 5: as a lot of these other factors.

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Speaker 3: Now, one thing to keep in mind is the injury

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Speaker 3: report differential in this game is pretty massive. And I've

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Speaker 3: said this before in previous episodes. You know we record

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Speaker 3: this on Wednesday night. Yeah, you know, so Thursday, the

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Speaker 3: injury report is a little more reliable than what you're

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Speaker 3: going to get a Wednesday. And the Bears pretty much

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Speaker 3: have no injuries. You know, Eddie Goldman, which he would

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Speaker 3: miss if they doesn't play. He didn't practice day. But

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Speaker 3: that's pretty much it. And you're right, the defense isn't

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Speaker 3: playing as well. They they do miss the chem Hicks,

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Speaker 3: I think a lot up front, but the the Lions

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Speaker 3: injury repoort is long. I mean, their punterer didn't practice today,

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Speaker 3: Sam Martin, DeShawn Han didn't practice. Tracy Walker was a

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Speaker 3: really good safety, and they already traded Diggs, he didn't practice.

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Speaker 3: You know, Stafford popped up on there with a new

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Speaker 3: back injury. I'm assuming he.

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Speaker 2: Doesn't miss games anymore.

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Speaker 5: The thing about the Lions is then, yeah, their injury

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Speaker 5: report is always massive, but I mean even last week,

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Speaker 5: like they ultimately ended up losing to the Raiders, not

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Speaker 5: pretty poor play call, I think at the end of

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Speaker 5: that game, but you know, they were in that game

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Speaker 5: and they could have easily tied the game up at

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Speaker 5: the end. Like They've been playing without with most of

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Speaker 5: these guys out for a while on defense for a

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Speaker 5: while now, And that's that's kind of why I like them,

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Speaker 5: because I think that their weaknesses, their main weakness is

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Speaker 5: really on defense. And when you're going against the Bears,

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Speaker 5: it's like, Okay, maybe you give up a couple of

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Speaker 5: chunk plays to Montgomery or you know if.

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Speaker 2: Because that's really all the Bears are going to do

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Speaker 2: at this point.

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Speaker 5: The Bears are going to try to score seventeen to

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Speaker 5: twenty points and hope that their defense holds the other

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Speaker 5: team under And I don't I just don't like those odds.

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Speaker 2: When you have.

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Speaker 5: Mister Brisky going up against Matthew Stafford, Matthew Stafford usually

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Speaker 5: takes care of business against the bad teams, and he

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Speaker 5: loses to the good teams.

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Speaker 2: And right now, the Bears are bad teams.

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Speaker 3: And this is maybe arguably the worst passing offense in

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Speaker 3: the NFL. So you know, even if Walker is out

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Speaker 3: after they traded Diggs, you know, you saw last week

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Speaker 3: car and company take advantage shot, you know, the line segment,

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Speaker 3: and they also were running it. They but they just

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Speaker 3: have The Raiders have such a more explosive passing attack

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Speaker 3: and running game than the Bears that I don't think

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Speaker 3: it necessarily matters as much that the Lions might have,

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Speaker 3: you know, some injuries at safety. You know, their linebackers

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Speaker 3: are pretty weak, so I don't think it matters that much.

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Speaker 3: You know, you should have Sleigh back to cover Robinson

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Speaker 3: and look that Burton's not going to beat you at

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Speaker 3: tight end, and the Bears offensive line is terrible. You

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Speaker 3: just trust the Lions position players probably to make more

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Speaker 3: plays in this game, which should be uglier. It's an

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Speaker 3: ugly overall NFL card. And you'll be to tell that

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Speaker 3: by my first pick, my top pick, which is the Bengals.

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Speaker 3: This uh, I've only told people about the Ravens. Three

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Speaker 3: times you're against Chiefs, Hawks, and Patriots, and so I

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Speaker 3: generally have a good unbiased rereaet on them. Someone was

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Speaker 3: tweeting Ravel tweeted something about my pa my Ravens call,

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Speaker 3: and then someone was like, you're yeah, he just said

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Speaker 3: that because he's a homer. And it was literally like

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Speaker 3: three minutes. It was literally three minutes after I put

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Speaker 3: a Bengals bet in on the app.

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Speaker 2: We talked about this last week too.

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Speaker 5: It's like, you you know how this back and forth

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Speaker 5: goes by now like most weeks, like if you're ever

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Speaker 5: betting against the Patriots and you know, I'm like, okay,

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Speaker 5: you probably shouldn't. And last week I said it. I

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Speaker 5: was like, you know, I think that's a good call.

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Speaker 5: I think you're spot on with that, and yeah that

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Speaker 5: like we know you're not a homer.

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Speaker 2: People were on Twitter, Recilly.

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Speaker 3: Look, so there is you know, for you trend players

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Speaker 3: teams that beat the Patriots and then after the beating

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Speaker 3: the Patriots in their next game, they opened up as

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Speaker 3: a seven point or higher favorite or ozer and eight

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Speaker 3: against the spread the last fifteen years, but by the way,

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Speaker 3: the last time the Ravens were double digit favorite on

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Speaker 3: the road two thousand eleven, it was Joe Flackover's Blaine

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Speaker 3: Gabbert and the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Jags won out

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Speaker 3: right twelve to seven with four field goals. Speaking of,

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Speaker 3: you say those names again, please, Speaking of, the Ravens

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Speaker 3: generally have a special team's advantage in almost every game

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Speaker 3: against anyone. The Bengals, per Football Outsiders, you look at

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Speaker 3: their ranking to buy a lot of advanced matchers have

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Speaker 3: the number one special teams unit in the NFL. The

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Speaker 3: Ravens actually took a drop back because they muffed the

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Speaker 3: punt and you know, Tucker missed it an extra point

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Speaker 3: last week. But the Bengals actually been really good, like

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Speaker 3: fat Randy Bullock's been good at kicking their kick return unit.

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Speaker 3: And the Ravens aid, you know, this is last time

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Speaker 3: the Ravens and Bengals played. The Bengals were catching ten

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Speaker 3: and a half eleven in Baltimore, by the way, catching

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Speaker 3: eleven here. They returned to open and kick for a

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Speaker 3: touchdown the Bengals, and that ultimately helped them cover. The

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Speaker 3: Bengals are bad. No one is going to say that

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Speaker 3: they're not. But this no more. Let's get Let's go

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Speaker 3: through three things here. One is the spot, right, So

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Speaker 3: the Ravens are coming off that huge emotional win over

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Speaker 3: the Patriots, you know, so maybe they and now they're

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Speaker 3: going to an O and to eight Sincy team that they

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Speaker 3: already beat this year, so maybe they come out a

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Speaker 3: little flat. And all that means is since you can

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Speaker 3: get you know, break a touchdown on a miscommunication or

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Speaker 3: mistackle early and then all of a sudden you're spott

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Speaker 3: at seven points or maybe you know they fumble or

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Speaker 3: there's a misread on the offense. That's all that means

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Speaker 3: from a flat perspective. At the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: the Ravens are six to two, and once this game

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Speaker 3: gets going, they're gonna They're not They're not going to

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Speaker 3: try or just sleep on the signs all the time.

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Speaker 3: That's what I mean. When a team comes out flat,

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Speaker 3: you can maybe catch them for a touchdown or they

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Speaker 3: make a sloppy mistake, and you know that can go

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Speaker 3: a long way and covering. But the Bengals are also

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Speaker 3: off of a bye. The biggest thing in that aspect

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Speaker 3: is one they're getting a lot healthier, especially on defense,

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Speaker 3: so the linebackers are terrible which has to weary you

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Speaker 3: in this matchup against the Ravens rushing.

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Speaker 2: I probably get right spot from Mark Andrews too, like.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, yeah, they're tight ends. I mean their linebackers, yeah,

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Speaker 3: or Boil or Hurst anybody, so one of them. No

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Speaker 3: matter how you slice it, the Bengals linebackers are terrible

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Speaker 3: and hopefully for comes back for the Bengals for our bet.

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Speaker 3: But along the defensive line they're getting healthier. Uh, the

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Speaker 3: offensive line, they're getting healthier, and then they should but

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Speaker 3: again I put this better only the week they should

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Speaker 3: get a J Green back, but he didn't practice today,

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Speaker 3: so I don't know if the Bengals are truly tanking.

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Speaker 3: Maybe they just sit him out their tank.

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Speaker 2: Well, AJ Green, like this is my you know.

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Speaker 5: So there's this whole debate and fantasy like, oh, should

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Speaker 5: you take AJ Green and like the fourth or fifth

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Speaker 5: round and like stash him? And I'm like no, Like

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Speaker 5: this guy, Like, what are the odds that even if

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Speaker 5: he comes back in like week six or whatever, that

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Speaker 5: he even lasts? I mean, this guy, this is not

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Speaker 5: a good spot for him, even if he plays. To

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Speaker 5: be honest with you, I guess I will tell you and.

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Speaker 3: I would agree with you usually that I will tell you,

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Speaker 3: and this is just voodoo Ravens fan stuff. He Aj

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Speaker 3: Green is an Mrs Ravens killer with Andy Dolton. But

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Speaker 3: we also have the other thing with the Buys. You

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Speaker 3: have Ryan Finley, who's efficient in college GENC State, who

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Speaker 3: you know, in two weeks to prepare, maybe they throw

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Speaker 3: in a few other wrinkles. And the Ravens don't really

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Speaker 3: have a lot of film on what the Bengals want

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Speaker 3: to do, so you know, maybe you'll get a few

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Speaker 3: wrinkles here. Because I do think that the Bengals, while

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Speaker 3: they are tanking, they're still competing. I mean, the market

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Speaker 3: just thinks there are so much worse than they are.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they lost to the Seahawks by one, you know,

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Speaker 3: the Bills by four, the Ravens by six, like, so

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Speaker 3: they're in these games and they've had so many injuries,

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Speaker 3: so they're gonna be a lot healthier. Now this is

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Speaker 3: these teams don't like each other. It's a division game.

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Speaker 3: I think the Bengals will show up. The Ravens might

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Speaker 3: be a little flat. The Bengals special teams be pretty good,

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Speaker 3: they're healthier. I do think the Rams be able to

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Speaker 3: move the ball. I just think it's too many points.

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Speaker 3: So ten ten and a half. I think the Ravens

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Speaker 3: are gonna get a scare here, just knowing my team

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Speaker 3: after that win, and I think you'll see a few

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Speaker 3: wrinkles from the Bengals and they keep it close. So

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Speaker 3: I'm roll with the Bengals plus ten ten and a half.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and we should kind of point out that, I

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Speaker 5: think a lot a question in a lot of people's

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Speaker 5: minds will be, Okay, the Patriots pretty much the best

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Speaker 5: team in football. The Ravens beat them by well it

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Speaker 5: was double digit, yeah, double digits. So how can you

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Speaker 5: bet on, you know, for them not to essentially win

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Speaker 5: by double digit against one of the worst teams in football?

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Speaker 2: And you know, just to just to.

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Speaker 5: Point out that, like what you're what you're saying, it's

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Speaker 5: all about the spot, Like these are human beings. The

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Speaker 5: better team is not going to always win or win

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Speaker 5: by the amount of points they should.

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Speaker 2: And that's there is part. You know, it is an art.

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Speaker 2: There is an art in this thing.

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Speaker 5: It's not just Okay, we're gonna kind of go with

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Speaker 5: exactly what we think, uh this just the final score

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Speaker 5: would be or whatever like to your point, Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 5: five and one against the spread as an underdog, including

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Speaker 5: last week, h you know win over the Patriots two

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Speaker 5: and seven against the spread as a favorite.

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Speaker 2: So that just that that goes right into your point there.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, people say Ryan Finley and look, even if

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Speaker 3: he doesn't end up being a good NFL quarterback this year,

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Speaker 3: just look at this year. A lot of times with

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Speaker 3: these guys come in for their first couple of games

400
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Speaker 3: before teams get a book on them, and then they

401
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Speaker 3: have some new wrinkles on offense. We've had so many

402
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Speaker 3: brand new quarterbacks that probably aren't going to be long

403
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Speaker 3: lasting franchise quarterbacks and they come in and have it

404
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Speaker 3: against the spread success. You know, even last week Brandon Allen,

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Speaker 3: I know you don't want to hear about your Browns,

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Speaker 3: oh Gardner minshew. So people are like, you know, it's

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Speaker 3: a rookie quarterback or it's his first time starting off

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Speaker 3: of a bye. I think they're going to keep it

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Speaker 3: simple for him. You know, you can run a little

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Speaker 3: bit up the middle on the Ravens, so I think

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Speaker 3: that they're going to be able to move the ball

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Speaker 3: a little bit. But don't not bet this just because

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Speaker 3: you know it's Ryan Finley. Just look back at all

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Speaker 3: the quarterback Kyle Allen, all the success that he had initially.

415
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Speaker 3: Now he's starting to fade away. But those first couple

416
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Speaker 3: of games, when there's like on the unknown factor, it

417
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Speaker 3: can work in favor of the young quarterback, you know.

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Speaker 3: And also the market I think is undervaluing them because it's, hey,

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Speaker 3: a brand new name and who wants to bet Ryan Finley. Well,

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Speaker 3: here it is. So that's why I'm going my first pick.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think that's that's on point.

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Speaker 5: For my second pick, I am going with the Minnesota

423
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Speaker 5: Vikings plus three at the Dallas Cowboys Sunday Night football.

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Speaker 5: And now I know everyone's going to say, oh, Kirk

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Speaker 5: Cousins in primetime, but I mean, like, first of all,

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Speaker 5: part of it was just being a Washington redskin. I

427
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Speaker 5: think another part of it is, at the end of

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Speaker 5: the day, if you want to talk trends, I mean,

429
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Speaker 5: sure Cousins has had his struggles in a small sample

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Speaker 5: size in primetime. In a March, larger sample size, Jason

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Speaker 5: Garrett struggling and his team's struggling to cover in these

432
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Speaker 5: spots as a home favorite, He's just thirty nine percent

433
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 5: against the spread against winning teams barely over forty percent.

434
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,960
Speaker 5: Mike Zimmer when his team is a road underdog, they

435
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 5: cover at a fifty nine percent equip So Kirk Cousins,

436
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 5: you know, in primetime is the only trend at play here.

437
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 5: But beyond that, I just think, you know, and the

438
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 5: numbers kind of back it up if you look at

439
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 5: the way to DVA both Dallas and Minnesota in the

440
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 5: fourth through sixth range, which essentially means they're playing efficient

441
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:36,360
Speaker 5: football on both sides. I'm not knocking Minnesota for that

442
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 5: loss to the Chiefs because the Chiefs, they're also a

443
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,480
Speaker 5: top five team in DVOA and they there was really

444
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 5: no drop off, maybe not quite the high end ceiling

445
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 5: that the Chiefs had, but not much drop off in

446
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 5: terms of overall efficiency. Going to Matt Moore, he wasn't

447
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 5: out there, you know, throwing, you know, committing tons of

448
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 5: turnovers or failing to get the ball to Hill and

449
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 5: Kelsey and all that. So that was just a really

450
00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 5: good Kansas City team that they lost to, and I

451
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,439
Speaker 5: think that Dallas not quite as good as that.

452
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 2: He saw Dallas struggle. You know, Now they have a

453
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 2: shorter week but we saw him struggle.

454
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 5: In that Giants game, and I just the Giants really

455
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 5: had a lot of opportunities for that game to have

456
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 5: turned out a lot different.

457
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: There were some coaching errors, you know on the Giant side.

458
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 3: There was some black Cats.

459
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 2: Oh my god, that was probably my favorite moment of

460
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:20,440
Speaker 2: the NFL season.

461
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 3: I have a black cap. I love black cats, so

462
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 3: I was very excited.

463
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 5: Did you hear the Kevin Harlan. Yeah, if you guys

464
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,480
Speaker 5: haven't heard, just google the Kevin Harland on the radio.

465
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 2: It was amazing.

466
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 5: But yeah, you know, the Giants turn the ball over

467
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,439
Speaker 5: three times, they went one to one of five in

468
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 5: the red zone. They gave the Cowboys the ball, you know,

469
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,479
Speaker 5: near the half when you know, there were just there

470
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 5: were just a lot of bad decisions.

471
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 2: I think on the Giants side that kind.

472
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 5: Of outweighed a pretty flat Cowboys team coming off of bye,

473
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 5: which usually you know, favorites off of bye. They cover

474
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 5: and Dallas did cover, but I think you kind of

475
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 5: you kind of saw them coming out flat, which again

476
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 5: speaks to just Jason Gowrett is not the best coach

477
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,439
Speaker 5: to kind of get hiss revd up. I think you know,

478
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 5: the Vikings still in the thicket things, as are the

479
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 5: Cowboys and and and the Vikings coming off with loss

480
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 5: is actually gives them the edge as far as the

481
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 5: motivation and the coaching staff and so, you know, in

482
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 5: a toss up game, I think both of these teams

483
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 5: are gonna feed their running backs. You know, obviously would

484
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 5: help more if Fewan was in, But at this point

485
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 5: the VI it's not like the Vikings are just going.

486
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 2: To throw the ball around the yard. I think the

487
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 2: Cowboys defense.

488
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 5: It's one of those defenses that it's it's pretty good,

489
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 5: but you can kind of move the ball.

490
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 2: This is another game. I just think it's it's a

491
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 2: coin flip.

492
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 5: I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota one, So I you know,

493
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 5: might maybe look at the money line, but I am

494
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 5: going with the Vikings plus three in primetime.

495
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins gott to regress sometime.

496
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, that's Kirk Cousins. Stuff is fun to me.

497
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 3: But it's I mean, like, look, he's think a couple

498
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 3: weeks ago, he's like thirty three and sixteen one against

499
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 3: the spread at one o'clock, starts in like six and

500
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 3: eleven after but like the six and eleven at seventeen games.

501
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 3: It's not like he has to wake up at a

502
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 3: certain time and if he doesn't, he's bad like.

503
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 5: Most of them, and most of them Washington, Like anytime

504
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 5: you have any kind of trends with Washington, you always

505
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 5: have to because like that, that whole organization.

506
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 2: You know, you can't put too much weight into that.

507
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 3: So yeah, I agree, it's uh, very very just just randomness.

508
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 3: But the couple of things that you brought up that

509
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: do scare me about the Vikings here. This should be

510
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 3: a really good game. It's going to go a long

511
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 3: way in the NFC playoff picture is you know, with

512
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 3: Feeling being out, it just it makes their offense much

513
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 3: less dynamic because you could focus more on digs obviously,

514
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: But on the other side of the ball, you know,

515
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 3: it's and I want to also see vander ash plays

516
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 3: with the Cowboys. He should be coming back soon. He's

517
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 3: made of glass. But on the other side of the ball,

518
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: the Cowboys offensive line now being healthier, so much of

519
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 3: what the Vikings do. You know, they're top of the

520
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 3: league in adjusted sacarate. They get tons of pressure mainly

521
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 3: because you know they'll scheme up some pressure and you

522
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 3: know they'll scheme up some complex pressure, but they also

523
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 3: just have Griffin and Hunter coming off the edge and

524
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 3: they've been one of the best duos as far as

525
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 3: edge pressure in the NFL. But now they're going off

526
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 3: up against one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL.

527
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 3: So if they're if the Cowboys are able to give

528
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 3: Jack time and you know, maybe and get some have

529
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 3: some success running up the middle. I want to see

530
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: how the Vikings corners hold up because Xavier Rhodes as

531
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 3: numbers are just falling off of a cliff. Trey Wayne's

532
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 3: hasn't been great, but they're able to compensate for it

533
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 3: because they have great safeties and they get a ton

534
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 3: of pressure. So this is more big picture too. But

535
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 3: if the Vikings aren't able to get pressure, and they're

536
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 3: gonna be able to do so against most teams, but

537
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 3: the Cowboys do have one of the better offensive lines

538
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,360
Speaker 3: in the NFL, so if they're not able to get pressure,

539
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 3: it could be a long day for both corners. So

540
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:33,880
Speaker 3: I think that might be the key to the game.

541
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 3: All right, for my second pick, Look, I told you

542
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 3: it's going to get ugly, and it's only going to

543
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 3: get uglier. I guess I am the goat this week.

544
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 3: And when I say good, I don't mean the greatest

545
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 3: of all time. I mean that maybe I should say

546
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: the donkey that has the Browns. I feel like one

547
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 3: of us every week has the Browns. Oh can take turns,

548
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 3: it might never cover. So I guess it's my turn

549
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 3: to take the Browns against the Bills. And look, it's

550
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 3: not a play on the Browns, but it's mostly a

551
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 3: fade of the Bills. And I think the Bills are

552
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 3: just overvalued in the mark right now. They've played nobody.

553
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 3: The two days they played the Patriots and Eagles, they lost,

554
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 3: they lost. They have six wins. Their strength of victory

555
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: is zero point one seven eight. I mean the winning

556
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 3: percentage of all sixteens that they've beat combined seventeen percent.

557
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: They've played absolutely nobody at all. And you know, their offense,

558
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 3: they still can't throw the ball downfield. Their rush offenses,

559
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 3: you know, eh, and they're playing you know, on defense,

560
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 3: they don't let up anything deep. Their pass defense is

561
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 3: really good. You know, even if you adjust for the

562
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,919
Speaker 3: bad quarterbacks they faced. You know, Brady couldn't do anything

563
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 3: against them, and you know, but there was win against Eagles.

564
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 3: They couldn't throw, but their run defense is very, very worrisome.

565
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 2: Vulnerable, very like Adrian Peterson.

566
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 5: It was like this five play stretch Ratht week where

567
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,959
Speaker 5: Adrian Peterson got like eighty yards.

568
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Eagles, who have not had the best rush

569
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 3: offense this year, ran all over them. Everyone you name it, Standers,

570
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 3: wentz anyone at Howard. They all ran all over the Bills.

571
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 3: The Bill's DVA thirtieth, that defense thirtieth against the run

572
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 3: on the year. And who has one of the best

573
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 3: rushing offenses in the NFL. That's the Browns. And look,

574
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 3: you could say Kitchens is gonna mess it up, which

575
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 3: is always a fair a fair statement to make. What

576
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 3: he did in New England in a windy game against

577
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 3: a team that has a great pass defense and a

578
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 3: vulnerable run defense. Is he at least said Nick Chubb,

579
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 3: You're gonna beat the Patriots and without dropping the ball

580
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 3: literally and figuratively, the Browns maybe could have without all

581
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 3: the turnovers. So I think you're gonna see a heavy

582
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 3: dose of Nick Chubb. And but guess what, Kareem hunts

583
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 3: also back, So who knows how you know, I don't

584
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 3: know how much carries will get in his first week back,

585
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 3: but maybe some plays out of the backfield, you know,

586
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 3: in the passing game. But I think it's just gonna

587
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 3: be heavy Nick Chubb here. There could be snow doesn't

588
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 3: look like it as of now. They were calling for

589
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 3: early week, but there's definitely gonna be win. Fifteen to

590
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 3: twenty miles per hour. You know, the Bills can't throw

591
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 3: it downfield to begin with. Now with the win, I

592
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 3: think it's, Hey, who do I trust more? Nick Chubb

593
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 3: against his bad Bills run defense or the Bill's backs

594
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 3: who are okay?

595
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 2: But Avid Singletary's pretty good. I mean, like Frank Gore.

596
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 5: Okay, he's he got stuff three times at the goal line.

597
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be good. But I would rather

598
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 3: have Hunt and you know whoever humping is. But I'll

599
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 3: just rather have a Chubb all day against his vulnerable

600
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 3: Bills d So That's where I'm going with it. I

601
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 3: don't I hope that the Kitchens may find a way

602
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 3: to mess it up. Mayfield has been awful his numbers

603
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 3: against and this shows you all you need to know

604
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 3: about how bad Baker Mayfield's been this year. His numbers

605
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 3: according to NFL research this year, he is the worst

606
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 3: quarterback in the NFL. His rating when not being pressured

607
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 3: seventy five point one, six touchdowns, ten picks with no pressure.

608
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 3: You know, the second worst is but Mitch Trubisky has

609
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 3: ten touchdowns and one pick when not being pressured. Because

610
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 3: he's not being pressured in the NFL, Baker Mayfield is

611
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 3: six touchdowns and ten picks. You know, Dalton is the

612
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 3: second worst rating wise, he has eight touchdowns and five picks.

613
00:26:58,080 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: But I don't think it's gonna matter. I don't think

614
00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 3: you seem much passing. Otherwise, maybe he could throw up

615
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 3: a couple of bombs and hit some to their receivers

616
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 3: on the outside. But just give me Chubb against this

617
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 3: vulnerable billsdy. There's not enough run defe's I should say

618
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 3: there enough people are talking about in the wind, maybe

619
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 3: precipitation snow. I'm taking the Browns against an over valued

620
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 3: Bills team. They're just not that good people.

621
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 5: If you look at just their total DEVO A ratings,

622
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:21,360
Speaker 5: they're like neck and neck.

623
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 2: You know, this is not a big mismatch.

624
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 5: If the Browns failed to cover, I feel like we

625
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 5: need a whole special edition podcast where we're just drafting

626
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 5: like a whole six pack of ways the Browns could

627
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 5: screw up, and like discussing like is Odell Beckham truly

628
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 5: a cancer? Because Baker Mayfield was very good last year

629
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 5: throwing a Higgins and cahaway and uh who Rashad.

630
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 2: Perriman like he was good.

631
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 3: He was good.

632
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 2: Now he's got Beckham, the Giants with.

633
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 3: More wins than the Browns after all the preseason hates.

634
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 2: Oh my god. You know, here's here's a question though.

635
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 5: All right, so you like Cleveland this week, say sotunate,

636
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 5: probably the.

637
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 2: Market is more likely to get positive on them. They're

638
00:27:59,080 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: pretty down right now.

639
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is a three point underdog at Cleveland in week

640
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 5: eleven on Thursday night football?

641
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 2: Would you would you bet that now?

642
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 3: Because Pittsburgh I would probably lean pitt But again, because

643
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 3: it's Thursday at football, I'd probably end up staying away

644
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 3: from that game. But you know what it comes down

645
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 3: to to me is the and the pit offense. You know,

646
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 3: he's gonna we're gonna throw it to what Samuel seventy

647
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 3: seven times? But he can do that against the Browns.

648
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 3: The Browns can't cover posing backs, their linebackers are terrible,

649
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 3: but I may be on pit this weekend. Their defense

650
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 3: is playing so much better since Binka got there, So

651
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 3: I think that they're a little undervalued in the market.

652
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 3: But I also think the Browns are a little undervalued.

653
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 3: But maybe Mayfield this is who he is now, and

654
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 3: maybe Kitchens is as bad as we all think, and

655
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 3: I think he's bet maybe he's even worse, and they

656
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 3: just keep messing up there. This is like old Browns things.

657
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 5: This is Ben mcadree, like the way he ruined Odell

658
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 5: Beckham with the Giants, and like he was known he's

659
00:28:58,480 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 5: like an offensive guru.

660
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: The whole thing with him.

661
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 5: Was that he was essentially bad at juggling all the

662
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 5: responsibilities that came with being a coach, Like he was

663
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 5: just good at, you know, scheming offense. And I think

664
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 5: that's what's happened to Freddy Kitchens. All these lapses and

665
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 5: poor decisions in a variety of situations of different game situations,

666
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 5: and that just shows that there's like he doesn't have

667
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 5: enough time in the day probably to prepare the way

668
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 5: he needs to and prepare his team the way.

669
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's amazing that the Browns, if he

670
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 3: said before the year that the Browns rush offense would

671
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:29,479
Speaker 3: be as good as it's been, you'd be like, all right,

672
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 3: the Browns are probably doing well with Bayfield and all

673
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 3: their weapons, and.

674
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 5: They miss Mayfield, miss Baker Mayfield, they miss oedeut Beckham. Yeah,

675
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 5: they missed those two guys. That's what they missed, because

676
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 5: those guys have no show.

677
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 3: All right, where you goings on? As gross as man.

678
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 5: Oh Man, I mean the last time I picked him,

679
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 5: it was gross. But I'm going back to the world

680
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 5: because the same thing rings true. Carolina plus five going

681
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 5: to Green Bay. I just think that the Carolina Panthers

682
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 5: are one of the better teams in the NFC.

683
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 3: Clearly not in.

684
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,239
Speaker 5: The class of the San Francisco forty nine ers as

685
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 5: we learned, but the Green may you mentioned it. I

686
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 5: think last week they've been getting kind of lucky. Last

687
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 5: week they completely laid an egg. So I do think

688
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 5: they'll be better this week. But I don't think they're

689
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 5: a significantly better team than the Carolina Panthers. The Green

690
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 5: Bay defense, you know, since week four, bottom three in

691
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 5: you know, most efficiency metrics.

692
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 2: After the hot start, it's.

693
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers, and you know they're gonna have to rely

694
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 5: on those backs and you know, Davonte Adams, but I

695
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 5: think the Panthers are more well rounded team. They're one

696
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 5: of the best pass defenses in the NFL, which always

697
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 5: helps when you're going on the road to face a

698
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 5: good quarterback. And Christian McCaffrey could just change games, and

699
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 5: he's a kind of high variance, just like sometimes you know,

700
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 5: Jameis Winston as an underdog, you want the high variants

701
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 5: because it gives you some value. Like Christian McCaffrey is

702
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 5: just one of those guys that he could just change

703
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 5: a game in a couple of plays and totally ruin

704
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 5: the spread. And Green Bay's had some trouble covering these

705
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 5: games lately. They've been in some closer games, and I

706
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 5: just think that the Carolina Panthers are one of the

707
00:30:57,920 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 5: you know, right in that same tier with Green Bay.

708
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 5: And because you know, I think that that lost, the

709
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 5: big loss of San Francisco is kind of inflating their

710
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 5: point differentials and Flaton all these kind of metrics, where

711
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 5: otherwise they've been pretty much whites out this year with

712
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 5: Kyle Allen, like once Cam Newton went, you know to

713
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 5: that bench, Kyle an really has had one poor game

714
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 5: against San Francisco, who's pretty much the best team in

715
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 5: the league right now, and outside of that, it's been

716
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 5: lights out pass defense. It's been Christian McCaffrey playing like

717
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 5: an MVP. So and Ron Rivera usually didn't didn't work

718
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 5: out against San Francisco, but still two and one against

719
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 5: the spread this year as a road underdog, twenty four

720
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 5: and fifteen for his career. So he's not a guy

721
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 5: that you expect a team to kind of go on

722
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 5: the road to just get blown out of the building.

723
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 2: So give me the Panthers plus five.

724
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't necessarily disagree with you here. I still

725
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 3: have to dig a little more into this game. I

726
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 3: will say that, you know, if you think if you

727
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 3: look at the Packers, who I was saying last week

728
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 3: and they're my only future and I still love their

729
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 3: past defense, I think that, you know, as their corners

730
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 3: get better each every game. You know, you take someone

731
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 3: like jay R Alexander, you play bail corner at Louisville,

732
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 3: which means he wasn't facing the receivers, he was just

733
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 3: bailing out. So he's still learning how to be a

734
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 3: good corner. And he looks like he's going to be one.

735
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 3: I still love their safeties, I still love their their

736
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 3: edge rush, but their run defense in particular is extremely poor. Now,

737
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 3: the interesting part about this game is that so is

738
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 3: the Panthers. So you have the capable rush offenses versus

739
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 3: two poor run defenses. You know, I think, actually it's

740
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 3: probably going to come down to which team can you know,

741
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 3: score probably more in the red zone because I think

742
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: both teams are going to be able to move the ball,

743
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 3: especially on the ground. But that's the biggest concern for

744
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,959
Speaker 3: Green Bay is what are they going to do about

745
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 3: their run defense. They're getting this pressure off the edge,

746
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 3: and I ultimately do trust their secondary, you know, especially

747
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 3: later in the year where I think they're going to

748
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 3: be and that's one of the reasons why I took

749
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 3: a future on them with you know, and then obviously

750
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 3: you have Rogers and you know, those weapons on offense,

751
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 3: but the run defense is a real question, specifically up

752
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 3: the middle. You know, they missed Mike Daniels. He was

753
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,959
Speaker 3: always hurt, he still is hurt now, but they missed him.

754
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 3: Their linebackers have been poor, just everything against the run.

755
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 3: So McCaffrey should have a big day. Jones could also

756
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 3: have a big day. So yeah, I can't hate you

757
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 3: for taking the points here. If you look at sant

758
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 3: fran and Green Bay in full, if you put those

759
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 3: two teams next to each other, or if you just

760
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 3: do an eye test and you say, okay, who which

761
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 3: team is better? Clearly right now, things can change. But

762
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 3: sant fran is the clearly superior team. And this is

763
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 3: right around the same number that the Panthers were catching

764
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 3: in Sant Franz that they're catching now.

765
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, if it was three, I probably just stay away.

766
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 5: But at this at the kind of the dead zone,

767
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 5: I think there's a little value here on Caro. I'm

768
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 5: probably down up to four four and a half.

769
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I mean I think that the Packers probably

770
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,719
Speaker 3: I'm glad they for my future that they don't put

771
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 3: The Packers probably should have another loss or two, and

772
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 3: you know they that in that case these teams could

773
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 3: easily both be be five win teams, and you this

774
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 3: line probably wouldn't be as high as it was now.

775
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 3: But the Packers getting fortunate, you know, and also with

776
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 3: injuries and who they faced that nature, I think they're

777
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 3: a little overvalue to the market. All right, let's keep

778
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 3: it extremely ugly and finish off with my third pick.

779
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 3: That's my three picks this week aren eight, two and six,

780
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 3: so that's two and fourteen, and my next pick is

781
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 3: one in seven, so my three picks are combined three

782
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 3: and twenty one. This should go swimmingly. When I say

783
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 3: like that, I probably would have changed one of my picks.

784
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 3: But here we are. I'm going with the Falcons plus

785
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 3: thirteen against the Saints. The Saints cover every week, so

786
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 3: you should just hit mute now or hit the you know,

787
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 3: fast forward button on the app. Doesn't matter what I say,

788
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 3: because the Saints are just they cover every week. This

789
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 3: is just too many points for me, not much for

790
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 3: me to say here. I mean, true font is back

791
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 3: for the Falcons at corner, which should help maybe a

792
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 3: little bit. It's not like anyone could cover Thomas anyway.

793
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 3: But you know, this is still Matt Ryan is back,

794
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 3: it's still Hooper, you know, it's still Julio Jones, it's

795
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 3: still Calvin Ridley. So even if they're getting blown out

796
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 3: and down, have a team twenty late, huge backdoor ability here.

797
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 3: But this is just it's just way too many points.

798
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 3: I make it ten, so I'm getting thirteen and This

799
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:16,240
Speaker 3: isn't rocket science here with me. If you're catching double

800
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 3: digits in the NFL, I'm always going to look at

801
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 3: you right away. It's the first thing that will jump

802
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 3: out of the page. Now, if you're a team like

803
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 3: the Dolphins, I can easily dismiss you. And you know,

804
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 3: of these really really bad teams. Now, the Falcons, the

805
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 3: defense has been so bad. There's a lot of things

806
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,720
Speaker 3: not to like about them, but the talent is undeniable.

807
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 3: I have to take the Falcons here catching thirteen points.

808
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna I could go into different matchups and such,

809
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 3: but I could even go into the special teams where

810
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 3: the Saints are pretty good and the Falcons are dead

811
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 3: last in the NFL. So some of the matchups are

812
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 3: so ugly. But give me this offense catching thirteen points

813
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 3: in New Orleans and watch my money burn.

814
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I could easily see thirty four to

815
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:01,359
Speaker 5: thirty one faints like narrow Victor Falcons coming off to buy.

816
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 5: And by the way, they actually did cover in that

817
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 5: game against the Seahawks. And you know, the Seahawks have

818
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 5: a way of just ruining everyone's money as well. So

819
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,280
Speaker 5: the fact that the Falcons were able to backdoor that game.

820
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 5: I think there's definitely chop through for four hundred in

821
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 5: that game. With his weapons, you could throw for two hundred.

822
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 5: I could throw for like one hundred and fifty. I

823
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 5: don't have an arm, you know, They're just these all

824
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 5: these weapons on offense. Andt Matt Ryan in New Orleans

825
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 5: last year, he was in a similar spot. They were

826
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 5: catching I think like twelve and I played them. They

827
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 5: lost by fourteen, but I mean they outgained the Saints.

828
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 5: I think Ryan through for like four hundred yards.

829
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: Wolio had like twelve catches for one hundred and sixty

830
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 3: seven yards or something silly. So there's just way too

831
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 3: much talent catching thirteen in the NFL. And it does

832
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 3: not take much for me to bet a team catching

833
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 3: double digit NFL when they have actual talent.

834
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, and this is one of those spots where you

835
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 5: have like a bad team against the spread, fat like

836
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 5: thirty percent or less going against a team that's fifty

837
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 5: percent or better, which I think, like a casual better

838
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 5: will always.

839
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 2: Lean that way.

840
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, but it turns out that the worst team against

841
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 5: the spread has actually covered at a sixty two percent

842
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 5: rate per bet Labs.

843
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: You know, going back to two thousand.

844
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 5: And three, So it's it is one of those spots,

845
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 5: the only fun the hilarious thing. The Falcons are one

846
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 5: in one in eight against the spread the last eight

847
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,359
Speaker 5: times called when they've been more than a three point

848
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 5: or more underdog, So it's it's kind of one of

849
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,399
Speaker 5: those things where if there's anyone that's going to screw

850
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 5: this up, it's the.

851
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 2: Falcons or the Browns.

852
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 5: But I'm with you, it's too many points for an

853
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 5: explosive we offense that could easily get one in.

854
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 2: Wait, all right, So there you have it.

855
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 5: Our Sunday six pack Stuck has Bengals plus ten, Browns

856
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 5: minus three, Falcons plus thirteen, and I have the Vikings

857
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 5: plus three, the Lions plus two and a half, and

858
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 5: the Carolina Panthers plus five.

859
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 4: I hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I

860
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 4: want to make sure you know about the locked On

861
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,399
Speaker 4: podcast network. Locked On has a daily podcast on your

862
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 4: favorite team.

863
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 3: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

864
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 2: You are locked onwn of the Dallas marriage home everybody,

865
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 2: so the locked On Lakers podcast Let's Go.

866
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 4: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local xs who

867
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 4: know your team better than anyone and give you the

868
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 4: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

869
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 4: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your Locked On podcast.

870
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 5: Now let's get right into our favorite over under of

871
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 5: the week. Kind of mentioned earlier, a bit of an

872
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 5: ugly slate, but there's usually some totals on these kind

873
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 5: of things, even if we don't love a lot of

874
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 5: against the spread picks.

875
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 2: So start us off the Chargers Raiders.

876
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 3: I know that the one thing that gives me pause.

877
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 3: I didn't mention this on the Thursday Night game is

878
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 3: that the charters are snail They play so slow. That's

879
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 3: one thing I hate about betting their overs. But if

880
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 3: that was on Sunday I and not Thursday Football, that

881
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 3: probably would be my favorite total. But I'm going to

882
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 3: go with another over here, and I'm generally an under

883
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 3: player in the NFL, but I'm going with Arizona Tampa

884
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 3: Bay over fifty two. Look, Arizona's the fastest team in

885
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 3: the NFL. Tampa Bay should day have all those weapons.

886
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 3: Jamis will probably give away seven points. The Arizona defense

887
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 3: is nothing to write home about. Tampa Bay. Anyone could

888
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 3: throw on them, can't really run on them. You're gonna

889
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 3: Kylelo Murray running all over throwing all over them. This

890
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 3: game just screams points. It's also between like two teams

891
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 3: that are just pretty much out of it. You might

892
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 3: see some crazy trick plays here and just some bombs

893
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:12,560
Speaker 3: down the field to Evans And I mean, like, there's

894
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 3: just so much talent all around the field. And I

895
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 3: think it's gonna be played fast. There's be a lot

896
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 3: of explosive plays. So give me the over fifty two.

897
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, this this scream shootout, you know, especially after Arizona

898
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 5: was able to hit the over in that game against

899
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 5: the San Francisco defense on a Thursday, which is usually

900
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 5: when you'd expect kind of sloppier, lower scoring play. So yeah,

901
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 5: I'm with you there. And I think this game that

902
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 5: would be the exact opposite as the game we talked

903
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 5: about earlier. Detroit at Chicago already mentioned the Bears struggling

904
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 5: to move the ball, probably are going to want to

905
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 5: run the ball, and this one Detroit has struggled against

906
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 5: the run a bit. And on the other side, I think,

907
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 5: you know, Detroit has the edge in the pass game,

908
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 5: but it's much less of an edge than they've had

909
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 5: these last or you know, just much less closiveness potential.

910
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 5: Then they've had these last couple of weeks against the

911
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 5: Giants and the Raiders, the Chicago Bears have only given

912
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 5: up three touchdowns all season, two opposing wide receivers. They

913
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 5: know they'll make Matthew Stafford kind of dink and dunk

914
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 5: it a little more, go over the middle, you know,

915
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 5: go to the tight ends. It'll be one of those

916
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 5: kind of games. You know, Darryl Bevell has said he'll

917
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 5: kind of switch it up and match to what the

918
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 5: opponent does. So in these last couple of games, they've

919
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 5: had the edge, you know, outside outside the numbers, and

920
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 5: they've exploited that. But in this game, I think they'll

921
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:32,360
Speaker 5: play a different way. They have those Jesse, James Hockinson

922
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 5: and Logan Thomas. They so they have three tight ends

923
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 5: that they use quite a bit, and I think they'll

924
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 5: play that kind of game and Matt Nague will do

925
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 5: the same on the other side.

926
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: Plus we have the win factor.

927
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 5: As of now, we're recording this again Wednesday night, so

928
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 5: it could change, but looks like well over ten mile

929
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 5: per hour wins here and under hits out of fifty

930
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 5: six percent clip in those situations hit last week in

931
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 5: that Buffalo game, and not that that wasn't expected anyway,

932
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 5: but yeah, going with the under forty one and a half.

933
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 3: And that's on the close too, so a lot of

934
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,040
Speaker 3: times those will drop. And yeah, you know if you

935
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 3: get it even earlier, it's the percentage will be higher.

936
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 2: Absolutely.

937
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 5: So yeah, so you got Tampa Bay Arizona over fifty

938
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 5: one and a half. I have Lions Bears under forty

939
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 5: one and a half. Now let's get into our weekly

940
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 5: teaser segment.

941
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

942
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 5: All right, So, for those unfamiliar, a teaser is just

943
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 5: when you get six extra points against the spread, you

944
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 5: can pick two or more teams the standard two point teasers.

945
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,280
Speaker 2: What we do here so we each pick two.

946
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 5: Teams and you get a little bit of a lesser

947
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,840
Speaker 5: payout than you would otherwise if you bet them independently.

948
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,879
Speaker 2: But it's a nice way to kind of have some fun,

949
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:39,440
Speaker 2: to mix it up.

950
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 5: So stuck, let's go first, who you got for your

951
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 5: two teasers this week?

952
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mentioned this many other podcasts before, but the

953
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 3: you know, the so called classic long teaser, which is

954
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 3: when you can tease through three and seven, you actually

955
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 3: have an edge over the books historically. You know, if

956
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 3: you just look at the win probability, the historical win

957
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 3: probability of those teams, covering the teas and what you

958
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 3: need to even on a six point tase around seventy

959
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 3: two and a half percent, you clear that if you

960
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 3: can tease just through the three and set without even

961
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 3: considering anything else, and if it's a lower scoring game,

962
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 3: then you know you're increasing your chances even more because

963
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 3: six points means more in a game with a total

964
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 3: of forty than it would in a game with a

965
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 3: total of fifty. But we have three of those games

966
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 3: this week. You could tease the Bills up from two

967
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 3: and a half to eight and a half again over

968
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 3: under right around forty, you have the Jets that you

969
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 3: can tease up from two and a half to plus

970
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 3: eight and a half. And then you have the Lions

971
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 3: again low totals, all the low forties, you can tease

972
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 3: them two and a half to eight and a half.

973
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 3: I like the Browns, so I'm not going to recommend

974
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 3: the Bills. But if you went with Bills, wouldn't blame

975
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 3: you at all. It's a perfect tea spot. So I'm

976
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 3: going to say the Lions catching eight and a half

977
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 3: win the game should be low scoring against Mitch Trubisky,

978
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,800
Speaker 3: and then also the Jets catching eight and a half

979
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 3: against the Giants, and which should just be hilarious game.

980
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 3: It just feels like it's gonna be a funny game

981
00:42:58,320 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 3: that comes down to the wire.

982
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, we'll talk about that one a little more

983
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 5: in just a moment. But yeah, I'm with you on

984
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 5: those teases. I like Detroit as well. I'm gonna mix

985
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,919
Speaker 5: it up and go with Baltimore. Tease them from ten

986
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 5: to four here, because you know, you kind of mentioned it.

987
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 5: Cincinnati got the back door cover last week. Ten is

988
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 5: too many points. But this Baltimore team just has such

989
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 5: an advantage that I think that they can win.

990
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 2: They can win by a score.

991
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 5: You know, I don't know too, you know, once you

992
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 5: start getting into that two score situation, it's kind of dicey,

993
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,760
Speaker 5: but I do trust them to win by a touchdown.

994
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 5: So teasing them through that the seven and the six

995
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 5: don't get quite down to the three. But feeling good

996
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 5: about in Detroit as well. All right, So that was

997
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 5: our weekly teaser segment. Stuck and I both teasing the

998
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 5: Lions plus eight and a half and stuck adding in

999
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 5: the Jets plus eight and a half, while I'm going

1000
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 5: with Ravens down to minus four. Now it's time for

1001
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 5: our underdog money line parlay.

1002
00:43:55,400 --> 00:44:00,360
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1003
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 1: money line parlay, all right.

1004
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 5: So in this segment, we each pick an underdog on

1005
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 5: the money line and combine it into a little parlay,

1006
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 5: and you know, see if it can hit. My Jags

1007
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 5: did not come through last week? You had who did

1008
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 5: you have? You had?

1009
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 3: Ra Yeah?

1010
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, ex yeah, So that was I mean that that

1011
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 2: was a great call there. Who you got this week?

1012
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 3: But people say I'm a homer. I bet against the Ravens,

1013
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 3: A bet the Bengals, I bet the Browns, And now

1014
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 3: I'm going to go with the Steelers and my money

1015
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 3: line underdog. I may also add them here plus three

1016
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 3: and a half. It looks like Cooks is going to

1017
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 3: be out for the Rams, which certainly doesn't help. But

1018
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 3: I mentioned this before. If you look at the passing

1019
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,919
Speaker 3: success rate numbers on the Steelers defense since Mika got there,

1020
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 3: he's turned around their season on the defensive side of

1021
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 3: the ball, and specifically, speaking for this matchup, We've talked

1022
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 3: about this a lot. The Rams offensive line. You know

1023
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 3: how there are there are weak points on that offensive

1024
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 3: line this year, and if you can get pressure and

1025
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 3: you can hit Golf, then you can get them off

1026
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 3: his game. Well, that's what the Steelers do with their

1027
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 3: defensive line. They've one of the best defensive lines in

1028
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:00,839
Speaker 3: the NFL. So I think they're going to be able

1029
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 3: to hit Golf here. Uh, pressure him into mistakes. No

1030
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,800
Speaker 3: Cooks obviously doesn't help the Rams. He's doubtful when he

1031
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:09,919
Speaker 3: could play. I'm saying this as a Wednesday. The Rams

1032
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 3: are really beat up with safety and linebacker. So I

1033
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 3: think the Steeers can win this game and keep a

1034
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 3: run going. They've been pretty impressive here the last couple

1035
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 3: of weeks, and it's a it's a Tomlin spot. It's

1036
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 3: a it's a classic Tomlin spot where you know he's

1037
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 3: a a home dog against the Rams here and it's

1038
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 3: a soft Rams team still at the end of the

1039
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 3: day to me, Yeah.

1040
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:32,760
Speaker 5: And that's kind of why I was, you know, talking

1041
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 5: about potentially betting that the Steers look ahead wine against

1042
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:37,839
Speaker 5: as a dog against the Browns because I think they

1043
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 5: have a They're undervalued, right now and they could.

1044
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 3: They win this game and the Browns lose that line,

1045
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 3: you won't get that anymore.

1046
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 2: Right, right, So, yeah, I like that call.

1047
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 5: You know, Tomlin as a as a dog has been

1048
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:52,279
Speaker 5: absolutely money. I don't know if it's I don't know

1049
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,760
Speaker 5: if that's failed this season as a matter of fact,

1050
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 5: because I've been on that one too pretty much every week.

1051
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 5: Let's see that Tomlin as a dog three in one

1052
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 5: the season against the spread.

1053
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 3: The best underdog coaches acted coaches the NFL.

1054
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, sixty five percent, thirty two, seventeen and two going back,

1055
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 5: you know, throughout his career.

1056
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 3: And if you bet him on money line as an underdog,

1057
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:12,879
Speaker 3: he's ridiculous too.

1058
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, you have a you would have a sixteen percent

1059
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 5: ROI betting betting on him on the money line wins

1060
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 5: almost half the time forty five percent.

1061
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 2: That's pretty good when you're an underdogs, all right.

1062
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 5: So you got the Steelers and you mentioned the Jets earlier,

1063
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:28,959
Speaker 5: and that's my money line pick.

1064
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: It's just gonna be a hilarious game.

1065
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 5: And if this was if the line was the other way,

1066
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 5: because it's really a home game for both teams, it's not.

1067
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:37,800
Speaker 5: You know, they're both they both play in the MetLife Stadium.

1068
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 5: Jets are officially the home team, but you know, if

1069
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 5: I was catching points with the with the Giants, I'd

1070
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 5: probably go that way.

1071
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:47,320
Speaker 2: But the bottom line.

1072
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 5: Is, I think this is a game where you look

1073
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 5: at the Giants and they might have I think some

1074
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 5: bigger names obviously, say Kwon Barkley and whatnot. But Daniel

1075
00:46:56,280 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 5: Jones twenty one sacks, six interceptions, seven fumbles in his

1076
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 5: last you know, his last five games.

1077
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,839
Speaker 2: So it's another one of those.

1078
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 5: It's just you know, if he's an underdog and you

1079
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 5: get in some points here, you probably probably go the

1080
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 5: other way. But it's like Jameis Winston if he if

1081
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 5: you're getting points with him, then you know, Sam Donald can't.

1082
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:20,840
Speaker 5: He can't be any more turnover pron or interception pronor

1083
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 5: sack prones in in what Daniel Jones is.

1084
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 2: So it's essentially just another one of these coin flip games.

1085
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 5: Everyone's down on the Jets, so it seems like a

1086
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 5: good time for them to get a win, and then

1087
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:33,359
Speaker 5: everyone will start, you know, wondering about the Giants again,

1088
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:34,919
Speaker 5: and it will just kind of go back and forth

1089
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 5: and New York will be miserable.

1090
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, the best team in New York is the Bills

1091
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:40,880
Speaker 3: if you want to count Western New York, and they're

1092
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 3: pretty far and I don't think there's any Super Bowl

1093
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 3: coming into the state of New York anytime in the

1094
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 3: next couple of years. But yeah, I can't disagree with

1095
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 3: you here. And if if for those of you are

1096
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,279
Speaker 3: not familiar, we're doing a promo with points Be where

1097
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 3: you can fade Darren Ravel where he picks his favorite

1098
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 3: game of the week and then you know the points

1099
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,080
Speaker 3: that will offer better odds on the other side. And

1100
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:04,839
Speaker 3: he picked the Giants this week, so you're probably good

1101
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 3: there in picking the Jets. And so if you want

1102
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 3: to go bat if you have points Bett and if

1103
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 3: you want to go bet the Jets plus to it

1104
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 3: after you get a plus one ten. So just throwing

1105
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 3: that out there as well. But yeah, I agree with you.

1106
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 3: This is a true coin flip game and so you

1107
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 3: can't go wrong. I think if it was minus two

1108
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 3: and a half Jets, you probably would have picked the

1109
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 3: Giants here in this segment.

1110
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, That's that's really all it comes down to.

1111
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 2: Again, we're just at that time.

1112
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 5: Of the year where it's an ugly, ugly slate and

1113
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,800
Speaker 5: teams will weigh eggs. Better teams will come out flat.

1114
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 5: So you know, give me, I'm going with the variants

1115
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 5: taking the points. It should be a Hiarius game. I'll

1116
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 5: probably be tuning into that one away from red zone

1117
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 5: for a few minutes. But now it is time to

1118
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 5: go into the best of the rest, all right. So

1119
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 5: we only have a couple of games here, starting with

1120
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 5: one that was off the board for a part of

1121
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:54,839
Speaker 5: the week but looks like it's reopened. Kansas City going

1122
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 5: to Tennessee Chiefs by five and a half eighty six

1123
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 5: percent of the bets, ninety one percent of the money

1124
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 5: on the Chief, with the total at forty eight and

1125
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 5: a half fifty six percent of the bets on the under.

1126
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:07,879
Speaker 5: Andy Reid tends to cover in these spots thirty four

1127
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,240
Speaker 5: to seventeen and one in his career against the spread

1128
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 5: on the road. That's a sixty seven percent cover rate,

1129
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:16,359
Speaker 5: and the over when Reed's chief go on the road

1130
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 5: is also hitting at a fifty nine percent rate.

1131
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 2: Anything here, I.

1132
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 3: Mean, if you got this really early before the Mahomes news,

1133
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:24,759
Speaker 3: good for you. I wish I did. It's not my

1134
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 3: type of you know, not my cup of tea to

1135
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 3: play the Chiefs here, but it's probably Chiefs are nothing. Uh,

1136
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:32,879
Speaker 3: you know, if I had to bet, especially with myhome back,

1137
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 3: and the Chiefs just in general are getting healthier across

1138
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 3: the board, you know, you know Fuller, Okah four, Wiley

1139
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 3: looks like he's back Fisher and you know, Boca four

1140
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 3: didn't practice. I think they're the only ones that didn't practice.

1141
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 3: But if they especially if they get Fisher back, with

1142
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 3: that offensive line, and you know, with Mahomes back more importantly,

1143
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,600
Speaker 3: then the offensive line doesn't even become as important. But

1144
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 3: with you know them now healthier at receiver and with

1145
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:58,799
Speaker 3: Kelsey but Walkins Hill and the Titans this week, how

1146
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 3: to put Malcolm Butler on ir which means Lashawn Simms

1147
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 3: comes in and starts at corner, which is something that

1148
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 3: Mahomes obviously can take advantage of, you know, on the

1149
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:11,840
Speaker 3: other side of the ball, Tennessee. I mean, they just

1150
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 3: don't scare you, so they're probably there. We're gonna have

1151
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 3: to run the ball a ton, which you can do

1152
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs, So that's what they're gonna have to do.

1153
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 3: You know, Jones is back for the Chiefs. Chris Jones

1154
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 3: in the middle, which helps them a ton, but it's

1155
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 3: still a really, really really weak run defense. So the

1156
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 3: problem is Tennessee's run offense keep up with Mahomes and

1157
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 3: the Chiefs passing offense probably not. They're gonna need the

1158
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 3: force turnovers or something. So I think it's Chiefs or

1159
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 3: nothing here. But around six is is probably right because

1160
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 3: there might be some rusts with Mames at first, you know,

1161
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 3: and you don't. You don't say, know how healthy is

1162
00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 3: Maybe he's eighty ninety percent, But yeah, I think it's

1163
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 3: Chiefs for nothing here.

1164
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:45,759
Speaker 2: Underrated.

1165
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 5: But the top three teams in pass defense DVOA the

1166
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 5: forty nine Ers, the Patriots, and the Panthers.

1167
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 2: Number four the Kansas City Chiefs. So they've been.

1168
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 5: Playing kind of covering up for that run defense. Yep,

1169
00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 5: quite well in the pass game. A team that has

1170
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 5: not I've been covering well at all, the Miami Dolphins.

1171
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 5: They are dead last in past defense DVOA. They are

1172
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:09,320
Speaker 5: going to Indianapolis. They are ten and a half point underdogs,

1173
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 5: sixty one percent of the bets, sixty nine percent of

1174
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 5: the dollars. Though on the Dolphins, the total forty four

1175
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 5: with fifty six percent of the bets ninety four percent

1176
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:21,880
Speaker 5: of the money on that over, one really bad defense

1177
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 5: and one shaky defense. Do you like the over in

1178
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:26,239
Speaker 5: this one too? Or are you just kind of staying away?

1179
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 4: No?

1180
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 3: I actually might bet the Colts, to be honest. I mean,

1181
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 3: the Dolphins got their win, and I'd rarely ever bet

1182
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 3: you know, lay ten in the NFL, but especially at ten.

1183
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 3: I might look at the Colts. I know, I don't

1184
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 3: even care ab lace quarterback for them. I mean, I

1185
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 3: know that there's a dry pert practice today and obviously

1186
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 3: it's better than Hoyer, and I know all the receivers

1187
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 3: are out. You know, a good exercise to do with

1188
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 3: your friends is ask your friend, okay, name I do

1189
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 3: this today with a friend. I said, name one of

1190
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:56,879
Speaker 3: the Colts starting receivers projected for this weekend, and he

1191
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 3: got zero. You know it's Rogers cane and passed, so

1192
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:02,960
Speaker 3: they don't. But I mean on the Dolphins idea of

1193
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 3: Walton who suspended. You know, Preston Williams is on ir

1194
00:52:06,080 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 3: the leading receiver. But it just doesn't matter me because

1195
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 3: what you had. If the Cults are getting healthy on defensive,

1196
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 3: Seer should be back, which helps a lot. But this

1197
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 3: offensive line with the Colts against the Dolphins horrible linebackers,

1198
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:21,319
Speaker 3: defensive line. You know, even if it's Hoyer, he could

1199
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:23,719
Speaker 3: throw to their tight ends. They could just line up

1200
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 3: and run this ball. They could just run the ball

1201
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 3: all day, right down the Dolphins throats. I imagine, you

1202
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 3: know you're the fantasy you number one rated. I imagine

1203
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 3: you know the Colts back should have huge, huge days

1204
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 3: this Sunday. So you know, the Dolphins, they're just a

1205
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 3: terrible team. They've been competing, they got their win last week.

1206
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,839
Speaker 3: You know, the Colts are coming off a devastating loss. Now,

1207
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:48,800
Speaker 3: hopefully then the y doesn't come up too many shanked

1208
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,320
Speaker 3: field goals. But this I think is cults or nothing.

1209
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 5: Marlon Mack top ten fantasy play for me this week

1210
00:52:54,680 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 5: at running back has been kind of up and down,

1211
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:58,399
Speaker 5: but this is a great spot. Miami number thirty one

1212
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 5: in run defense devo is. You know it's a bad

1213
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 5: game when the biggest stars are probably the offensive line

1214
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 5: for one team.

1215
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:05,399
Speaker 3: Yep.

1216
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 5: So let's get into our final segment, the Survivor Pool

1217
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 5: Pick of the week.

1218
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 2: One pick, one chance to advance.

1219
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:18,760
Speaker 1: Survivor.

1220
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:23,319
Speaker 5: All right, so still alive in the Little Survivor game.

1221
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 5: We're playing here. Have used the Seahawks, Texans, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles, Patriots, Bills,

1222
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 5: Vikings and forty nine ers so far this season. Week ten,

1223
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 5: you know it's you have the Saints. They're a big favorite,

1224
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 5: but you've kind of talked about it could be a shootout.

1225
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 5: You never know when you have two offenses that can

1226
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,840
Speaker 5: put points on the board. So for me, it's probably

1227
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:51,160
Speaker 5: down to the Ravens.

1228
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 2: Or Coat Yeah, or the Colts.

1229
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:56,400
Speaker 5: And as crazy as it sounds, I think I'm still

1230
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 5: I think I still trust the Ravens more than the

1231
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 5: Colts because you know, going against a a first time starter, like,

1232
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 5: you never know what can happen with the Colts, you know,

1233
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 5: quarterback situation a little messed up. I mean, just a

1234
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 5: lot of no name skill players at this point. Like

1235
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 5: there's just a little more danger I think with the

1236
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:13,839
Speaker 5: Colts at this point. In my opinion, I think the Ravens.

1237
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 5: You know, I just feel more confident in the Ravens.

1238
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 5: I'm putting it that way. So I'm it is a

1239
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 5: spot that probably from a game theory perspective, if you

1240
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:23,240
Speaker 5: don't if you haven't used either of them, you probably

1241
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 5: do go with the Colts because I think there's less

1242
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 5: time to use them. But you just never know in

1243
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 5: these situations, and I don't like the fact that I

1244
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:32,359
Speaker 5: don't know who their quarterback is going to be yet.

1245
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 2: So yeah, going with the Ravens every Yeah.

1246
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:35,399
Speaker 3: And if I was still alive and I went down

1247
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 3: because of the Colts beating the Chiefs, I would go

1248
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 3: with the Colts this week, just because one of the

1249
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 3: principles that I do have in Survivor is I avoid.

1250
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 3: Now sometimes you can't, but I try to avoid road

1251
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:51,959
Speaker 3: division teams. So but so I would go with the Colts.

1252
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 3: But yeah, those are the two that I think are

1253
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 3: the logical choices this week.

1254
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 5: All right, So that does it for another episode of

1255
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast. You can follow Stucky at Stucky

1256
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:05,360
Speaker 5: Too on Twitter or in the Action Network app.

1257
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,400
Speaker 2: You can follow me on both as.

1258
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 5: Well at Chris Raybon, and make sure you download that

1259
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:13,280
Speaker 5: Action Network app to get live odds, in game win probabilities,

1260
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:17,400
Speaker 5: and bet tracking. Stay tuned for more episodes of the

1261
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 5: Action Network podcasts.

1262
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 2: Stucky and Colin Wilson.

1263
00:55:20,080 --> 00:55:22,919
Speaker 5: Will have a couple of college football episodes breaking down

1264
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 5: on the action this weekend, and then we're back with

1265
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:30,439
Speaker 5: the Fantasy Flex next week, So until next time, let's

1266
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:31,360
Speaker 5: get thish money.

1267
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 3: Go back O