1 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:12,120 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. 2 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisenthal. Joe, I am 3 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: looking at a chart of the ten year US treasury yield. 4 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: You're not. I'm not. I'm not. Actually, how I know 5 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: you're not because we're actually sat together for once. Yeah, 6 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: we're actually in a studio together. So normally we're on 7 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: the phone. The last time we recorded an episode in 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: studio together, I think we were both in London. Now 9 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: we briefly crossed paths in New York, Yeah, which is 10 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: a nice change. Okay, So I am not actually looking 11 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: at a chart, but I'm imagining you're looking at a 12 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: chart of it. I'm visualizing the chart. I can see 13 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: the yield. It's above two point six percent for the 14 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 1: first time in years, really first time knows March really 15 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: only a year. But nonetheless it has been a sharp 16 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: move up. And if we continue this sharp move up, 17 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: we could soon see day year highs and long term 18 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: interest rates. Right, So, whenever we have a spike in 19 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 1: US interest rates, we get a bunch of people who 20 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 1: come out of the woodworks and start talking about the 21 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,399 Speaker 1: end of the thirty year bull market. In government bonds. Yeah, 22 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: this is something that if you're in markets, you know 23 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: all about that. The US treasury market has been in 24 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 1: almost a NonStop bull market since the early eighties. We 25 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: yields grinding lower and lower. You know. I think to 26 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: the outside world when you hear bull and bear market, 27 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: you think about the stock market, and sometimes we're in 28 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: a bull market and sometimes we're in a bear market. 29 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: But amidst all these changing economic conditions, the bond bull 30 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: market has been virtually NonStop for about three decades. Yeah, 31 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: for most of our lives. Basically. Now, whenever you get 32 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: people talking about the end of the great bull market 33 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: and government bonds, you also get people who start talking 34 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: about demographics, which you wouldn't necessarily think about when you 35 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: think about US treasuries government bonds. No, but I guess 36 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: it makes sense because if a bull market could persist 37 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: through changing economic conditions, then naturally there's an inclination to 38 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: look for structural explanations that could explain why something is 39 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: persisting even when the economy is up and down. Right, 40 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: So the kernel of the argument why the bowlmarket and 41 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: bonds will never end because of demographics is usually we're 42 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: going to have all these aging people and they're going 43 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: to need assets in one form or another as they 44 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: enter retirement, and those assets are most likely to be 45 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: US treasuries and that will lend itself to some long 46 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: term demand for the assets. I promise you it's more 47 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,920 Speaker 1: interesting than I just made it sound. Well, I'm very interested, 48 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 1: but could it really be that easy? Can we really say, oh, 49 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: a bunch of people are retiring that they're going to 50 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: have to buy financial assets and they'll buy bonds like 51 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: that almost seems like it's a free money. Well, I 52 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 1: have the perfect person to ask this question. Our guest 53 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: for this episode is Amlin Roy. He is chief retirement 54 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: strategist over at State Street Global Advisors, and can I 55 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 1: just say before I bring him on, shout out to 56 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: U Bloomberg Intelligences, Ira Jersey are chief US rate Strategists 57 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: for suggesting Amone as a guest. So, Ammon, thank you 58 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Thank you for inviting me, 59 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: Tracy and Joe, it's a pleasure to be on your show. 60 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 1: And when tell us a little bit about what you 61 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: do before we get into the bondball market and the 62 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: structural reasons for it. What is your background, what is 63 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: your area of study. I am a former academic specialized 64 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: in asset prices, but for the last eighteen years I've 65 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 1: been doing research building macro models to try and understand 66 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: demographics and pensions. So I started this and credit So 67 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: it's about in two thousand. It started off as public 68 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: policy advisory to governments of how to deal with the 69 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: demographics time bomb I growing massive old people to be 70 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: supported by shrinking mass of young people, and then over 71 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: time I extended it to trying to understand growth rates, 72 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: fiscal sustainable and expanded the universe of interest to so 73 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: called short term investors, hedge funds, private equity because I 74 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: believe that demographics is not just long term, it is immediate, 75 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: short term and long term. And after nineteen years at 76 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 1: Credit Source, I had the privilege of moving to the 77 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:20,600 Speaker 1: buy side last year and in a similar role, but 78 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:26,239 Speaker 1: looking at global retirement promises across the world for private 79 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: pension plans, for public pension plans, also understanding demographics for 80 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 1: sovereign wealth funds, endowments and charitable foundations. So that's what 81 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: I do. But my role is global and I'm very 82 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: very happy to learn globally from investors and people like you. 83 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: So specialist in asset valuations and demographic sounds like the 84 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: perfect guest. Yeah, I would broadly agree with that. But okay, 85 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,919 Speaker 1: so I have to ask, So you were specializing in 86 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: asset prices, so was demographics and natural jump for you? 87 00:04:56,480 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: Is the impact of demographics on asset prices that pronounce 88 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: absolutely not. It came as a surprise to me. I 89 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: used to do emerging markets currencies for thirty six countries 90 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: and teach derivatives and as surprising, So it came as 91 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: a shock. But the way I've evolved and looked at 92 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 1: demographics has become quite innovative because it place to two 93 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 1: of my strengths. I'm a macroeconomics professor who looked at 94 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 1: growth and why countries grow faster than others and some 95 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 1: other countries go slower. At the same time, I was 96 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 1: teaching finance of derivatives as surprising, so I said, when 97 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 1: people said, do demographics, I said, let's try and understand 98 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: why countries are growing faster than others. How demographics place 99 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: to it. And that's when I discovered that a lot 100 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: of what I taught in asset pricing in macroeconomics missed 101 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: out on understanding demographics because economists, investors actualis took a 102 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: very distorted and a very nuanced, narrow view of demographics. Demographics. 103 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: I went to the English lexicon to understand where does 104 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 1: the term come from? Demos, his people, graphers, his characteristics. 105 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 1: Nowhere is there a reference to something called age. So 106 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 1: if you consider the moss and graphers, to me, the 107 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: most important characteristic of Joe, or you or myself is 108 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: that from the time we are born till the date 109 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,599 Speaker 1: we die, we are consumers. There are seven point five 110 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 1: five billion consumers today in the world. Baby born in 111 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,239 Speaker 1: mass General is a consumer. So is the oldest living 112 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 1: woman in Okinawa, Japan, age hundred and thirteen. They're consuming 113 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 1: different things. Then if we look at three of us, 114 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: we are also workers. Workers contribute to GDP and consumers 115 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 1: consume about se GDP. And I want to quote the 116 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 1: biggest management group of twentieth century who highlighted this in 117 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 1: a way, but we as economists didn't pay attention. He's 118 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: also called the biggest pensions grow of the world. His 119 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: name is Peter Drucker. He said in Management Challenges for 120 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: the twenty one century, demographics is the single most important 121 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,479 Speaker 1: factor we don't pay attention to. But when we do 122 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: pay attention, we missed the point. And that's because as 123 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 1: all of us contrived of this framework where we thought 124 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 1: demographics is all about age. Rather, I think it's about 125 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: consumers and workers. And that makes it much more interesting 126 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: because consumers are people for a company who give revenues 127 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: to companies, and workers of courts. If you look at 128 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: it that way, demographics effects income statement and balance sheets 129 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: for individuals, households, or pres and nations. And I've managed 130 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: to connect it to heterogeneity, asset prices, robotics, geopolitics, discount creates, etcetera, 131 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: and previous research that I've done. So we're all consumers 132 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: and that turn consumer. One thing I think we consume 133 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: is and in different ways throughout our life, is we 134 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: consume financial assets. We buy financial assets so that we 135 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: have them later in life. So how much is this 136 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 1: aspect of our consumption understood, or more specifically, how important 137 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: is this aspect in understanding the link between demographics and 138 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 1: financial asset prices? Brilliant question, Joe, and I will tell 139 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 1: you something that we all got wrong, everybody in financial markets, 140 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: and that is that we decided to classify all the 141 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: consumers into three age groups. And this is what Sam Wilson, Modigliani, 142 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: merturn all of us and I taught for twenty years 143 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: that between zero two T there are three types of 144 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: life cycle that we go through young non workers which 145 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: is zero to fifteen workers sixteen to sixty four, and 146 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: the retirees who are sixty five plus. But we've missed 147 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 1: out on a very very, very very important thing that 148 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,439 Speaker 1: is that the retirees fall into two groups, young retirees 149 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: sixty to seventy nine and old retirees who are A 150 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: T plus. The A T plus behave very very differently 151 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: than the younger retirees. And the A T plus population 152 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,599 Speaker 1: in the world is the fastest growing population over the 153 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: last forty five years. From seventy they've grown at four percent, 154 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:59,439 Speaker 1: when the whole world population has only grown by hundred percent. 155 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: Le Me take it down to markets. In Japan, the 156 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: A T plus population in nineteen seventy was one percent. 157 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 1: In two thousand fifteen, it's eight percent, so they've grown 158 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 1: eight fold. In US they were two percent, it's double 159 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 1: to four percent. In Italy it was two percent, it's 160 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: gone to seven percent. The question you should say is 161 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: why should we care on land. We should care because 162 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy, Japan's debt to GDP was roughly about 163 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: Today Japan's debt to GDP is roughly about to sixty percent, 164 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: and a lot of it is attributed to the very 165 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: fact that these old people are very expensive, much more 166 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: expensive than the young retirees, and they are growing at 167 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: a very fast rate, and that's a universal change. The 168 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: fastest growing is Hong Kong, where there's been a change 169 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 1: of three thousand, eight hundred plus percent, Singapore percent, and 170 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: in the world we've seen a change of focent Japan 171 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 1: with roughly about seven percent of increase. And we need 172 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 1: to disentangle the fact that these older retirees are not 173 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: buying the same kind of financial assets as the sixty 174 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 1: five to seventy nine year olds. And that is quite 175 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: quite important because when I look at the share of 176 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 1: the lot of people talk about the hundred year life, 177 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: When I look at the share of the hundred plus population, 178 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: that's hardly point one four percent in Japan and the 179 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 1: point zero three percent in US. But when I look 180 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: at the share of the eight t plus population in Japan, 181 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: that's where we see that it's projected to grow from 182 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: somewhere close to eight percent to twelve percent in about 183 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,959 Speaker 1: twenty years time, and it's close to about one percent, 184 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: four percent, six percent in countries such as Italy. And 185 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: that's a very very major thing. We need to disentangle 186 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: the very old retirees from the young retirees. Now, let's 187 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: move to Joe's question. What we said is baby boomers 188 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: born between ninety six to sixty four. And I taught this, 189 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: and part of it is wrong, and I corrected it 190 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: in two thousand one two two, once I started learning 191 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 1: a bit more of demographics. We said that the older retirees, 192 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: the first baby boomers, will start turning sixty five around 193 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:10,839 Speaker 1: two thousand and eleven or so, and once they start 194 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,719 Speaker 1: turning sixty five, they will take all their equities, move 195 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: into treasury bills and cash, and there will be a 196 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,679 Speaker 1: big stock market meltdown. I raised three questions, and so 197 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: did people like Robin Brooks and Goldman Sacks and We 198 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: and Milton Friedman and others, saying that that was common folklore. 199 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: My question was who would they sell it to a huge, 200 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: big generation of baby boomers to a smaller generation of 201 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: other people? What kind of prices will they get? Second, 202 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: I want you people to popularize a question which I've 203 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: been asking and no one's answered, and the question I'm 204 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: going to put in the following way. Jo says, I'm 205 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: on your sixty five, you need to retire. Tracy says, 206 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 1: I've got the best inside line to God. You will 207 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: die when you're eighty five. My simple question to the 208 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: whole world is twenty years is post retirement. How much 209 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 1: money do I need for twenty years of post retirement? 210 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 1: Can anyone answer that question? And the answer to me 211 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 1: is no, because we don't know inflation, we don't know 212 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 1: health care expenses which are MSMI Parkinson influenced. We also 213 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: don't know how GDP growth is going to behave, we 214 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:17,959 Speaker 1: don't know what's going to happen to the equity premier. 215 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: So I claim that the biggest mistake of corporate governance 216 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: over the last hundred years has been long term promises 217 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,679 Speaker 1: made on DV pensions when no one even can guarantee 218 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: me what my salary increased the next three years is 219 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: going to be. How can you tell me that twenty 220 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: years later I'm going to get paid X Y or 221 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,719 Speaker 1: is that so? If we can't answer questions over long 222 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 1: term horizons. We should not make long term promises, and 223 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: this is why Peter Drucker, in his book Unseen Revolution 224 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 1: The Pensions Revolution, said that these long term promises aren't 225 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: sustainable and that led to the advent and growth of 226 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: defined contribution for a one key plans in the US. 227 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: So I feel like I'm back at university, act really 228 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: and sitting at a really interesting lecture. But amman, I'm 229 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: still fascinated by the impact of demographics on asset prices. 230 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: So when you look at demographics from this much more 231 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: nuanced view and from a sort of consumer behavior view, 232 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 1: how does that change the overall picture of the idea 233 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 1: that you're going to have a bunch of old people 234 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: who are going to need longer term safer assets. Very 235 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 1: good question, and I'm going to take you two Safer 236 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: assets have to come. But we are in a world 237 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 1: of low growth, and low growth is linked to demographics. 238 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: And one of the key paradigms to understand growth is 239 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: a freework developed by the ECB which I use a 240 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: lot over the last in twelve years, it says GDP 241 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 1: growth comes from three components working age population growth. How 242 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: have the people between the working age group, consider it 243 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: sixteen to sixty four, twenty to sixty five grown, second 244 00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: is labor productivity growth and third day is labor utilization growth. 245 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: If you were to be able to predict these three components, 246 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: you could add and get GDP growth. And I've done 247 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: analysis looking at GDP growth across the G six countries, 248 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 1: which is U, s UK, Frantically, Germany, Japan, and across 249 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 1: all these countries. The biggest reason why we've seen a 250 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: decline in growth over the last and fifteen years has 251 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: been declined in labor productivity growth. And labor productivity growth 252 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: is defined as real GDP divided by ours work, so 253 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: growth in real GDP divided by ours work, and all 254 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 1: over the world we are seeing that this is the 255 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 1: culprit for lower GDP growth. And I have a very 256 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: simple solution to increase GDP growth because if the GDP 257 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: growth pile increases, then savings will increase, and that savings 258 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: can then be used to defray income from those savings 259 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: towards paying for retirement promises. And to increase labor productivity growth, 260 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: you need to do just two things in increase female 261 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: labor force participation growth and increase youth labor participation growth. 262 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: So to me, GDP growth is suffering because these two components. 263 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 1: Youth unemployment is at an all time high, and I 264 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: show that there's a big gender gap even in countries 265 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: like US and UK, which is uh And there's also 266 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 1: a wage gap. So on average, women in UK and 267 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: US gets paid let's say a dollar, then the mail 268 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: gets paid fifty percent more. In Japan the mail gets 269 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: paid hundred thirty percent more. In France and Germany it's 270 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: fifty six percent more. But in Nordic countries the gap 271 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: is hardly ten percent. So I claim that we need 272 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 1: to close the gender gap, and we need to deal 273 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: with youth unemployment, which people haven't paid enough attention to. 274 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: And youth unemployment has come about largely because of two reasons. 275 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: A global workforce where you've taken an immigrants and the 276 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: impact of technology in terms of say things to pay 277 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: for people. The big uns certainty years. If I'm at 278 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 1: age sixty, how much will I live again? Finance and 279 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: economics has been quite wrong in focusing on life expectancy 280 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: at birth. What we should focus on is life expectancy 281 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: at age sixty, seventy seventy five and that has been 282 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 1: expanding because of that uncertainty. A lot of people who 283 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 1: are baby boomers expecting to retire at two thousand eleven 284 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: two thou twelve have extended, and we claimed in the 285 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 1: Demographic Manifesto that's what should happen. So in countries like Japan, 286 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: in countries like Sweden, in countries like Korea, people are 287 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: working beyond their official retirement age, not because somebody is 288 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: holding a gun to their head, but rather they realize 289 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 1: that they don't have enough money to last out the 290 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: uncertain twenty twenty five years. So the big pictures, you know, 291 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 1: sort of combining some of these trends that you've identified. 292 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: You know, we started off the conversation talking about the 293 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: sort of unquenchable thirst were safe assets, the great bond 294 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 1: ball market, that's last sin's the early eighties. How much 295 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 1: would you say these trends have attributed to that? And 296 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: then is there anything on the horizon that could say 297 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,919 Speaker 1: this is going to end? Or well, there is this 298 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: just another false dawn for the bond bears. Brilliant questions. 299 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 1: So I go back to what we taught our students, 300 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 1: and again I claim finance theory of the sixties seventies 301 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 1: eighties is flawed because it didn't consider the fact that 302 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 1: rates would be low and real rates would be negative. 303 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: So typically insurance companies and pension funds were told in 304 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,959 Speaker 1: the sixties seventies eighties, we learned and we taught our 305 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: students that for long dated liabilities, so you retired at sixty, 306 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 1: you have got a twenty year liability, or you retired fifty, 307 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:47,640 Speaker 1: you've got a thirty year liability. To meet long term liabilities, 308 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: the safe assets were considered to be long term bonds. 309 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: But at that time, the long term bonds were giving 310 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: you three, four or five percent in real terms, were 311 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: giving you sometimes seven, eight, ten percent in nominal terms. Today, 312 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:04,640 Speaker 1: government bands, I will say, are giving you negative real returns. 313 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: I would claim they should not even be considered the 314 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 1: admissible asset to match liabilities. What we should do is 315 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: broaden the universe of fixed income to include things which 316 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: give better returns, such as emerging market bands, such as 317 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: high yield bands such as credit. But because they are riskier, 318 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: we need to do some risk management. And therefore I 319 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:31,680 Speaker 1: do believe that the right assets are not long term 320 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:35,239 Speaker 1: bonds giving you negative real returns. There's another aspect to it, 321 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: and this was my biggest call. In two thousand one, 322 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: the day the U. S Treasury said no more thirty 323 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,439 Speaker 1: year bond issuance, I was on the west coast of 324 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 1: California meeting the biggest bond and equity investors, where I 325 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: made a call that U S will come back and 326 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 1: reissue thirty year bonds. And the supply of thirty year 327 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 1: plus bonds in the G ten countries is roughly one 328 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: seventh the demand of long term bonds. So if the 329 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 1: demand for long term bonds is so much higher, coming 330 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: from pension funds, reinsurers and insurers, then the price of 331 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: the long term bond will be high, and the yield 332 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: at that time used to be four percent. I made 333 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 1: a prediction will go from four to three to two 334 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: for the thirty year bond. Now there's been a bit 335 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,160 Speaker 1: more pick up in supply of longer term bonds. Demand 336 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,639 Speaker 1: for long term bonds yet hasn't fallen that much, so 337 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 1: we're seeing a little bit of a pick up, but 338 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 1: ultimately we forget the fact that long term demand and 339 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: supply are affected by behavior, are affected by supply, affected 340 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 1: by what the Debt Management Office of UK does relative 341 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: to the U S Treasury relative to Germany and Japan, 342 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: they all behave in slightly different ways, and that is 343 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: going to drive the yields and we should not forget that. 344 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 1: So Amon, I have a sort of theoretical caution. But 345 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,439 Speaker 1: you brought up the thirty year bond. And if we 346 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: know that we have this expanding group of old people 347 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: who will need a certain amount of safe assets, should 348 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: we be creating more assets to satisfy them, And do 349 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 1: those assets necessarily have to come in the form of 350 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:15,399 Speaker 1: a longer term government debt. Excellent question. I attended a 351 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 1: lunch with the Debt Management Office of UK and Germany 352 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 1: just a few days ago, and the answer to your 353 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,880 Speaker 1: second part of your question is not every government has 354 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 1: their appetite and the inclination to issue fifty, sixty, seventy 355 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 1: year bonds which have been issued by Japan, which have 356 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: been issued by UK, but have not been issued by 357 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: Germany and few other countries. So countries which don't issue 358 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: all these longer term bonds can oftentimes manage with ten 359 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 1: and thirty, but then they have to be very active 360 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 1: in terms of rolling them over, in terms of managing them, 361 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: and in terms of understanding that the demand dynamics of 362 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 1: the shorter term bond instruments, if they are ten or fifteen, 363 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 1: will be very different than thirty or fifty a bond instrument. Now, 364 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: I do believe, and this is what I've been going 365 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: and speaking to treasuries over last eight ten years about that, 366 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,959 Speaker 1: whether it's the Netherlands, whether it's Germany, whether it's Switzerland, 367 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 1: we should be issuing a lot more long dated bonds 368 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:18,120 Speaker 1: because it's easier to try to match a thirty year 369 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:24,160 Speaker 1: employees probably sixty year liability rather than trying to match 370 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 1: it using rolling over two twenty year bonds to get 371 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,760 Speaker 1: sixty years. So I do think that there needs to 372 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: be but it depends again on the appetite of governments. 373 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: My personal view is we should be having more inflation 374 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: linked long term bonds and just like the tips like 375 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 1: the O eighties, as well as the guilts, because once 376 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: inflation kicks up, which I expected to hopefully if we 377 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: go back to normal conditions. I consider these conditions to 378 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: be a normal dissequilibrium, conditions that central bankers and we 379 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 1: have never seen before earlier, and we don't know how 380 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: to deal with properly. And that's why we've taken so 381 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 1: long to recover from what I called the global financial crisis. 382 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: I do not ascribe to the term of great recession 383 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: on this tough right, Amlin, I'm afraid we're going to 384 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 1: have to leave it there, Amlin Roy from State Street 385 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: Global Advisors. Thanks samlad that was absolutely fascinating. Really, I 386 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: appreciate you coming up. Okay, thank you guys. Joe. That 387 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: was a really interesting conversation about demographics the longer term 388 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 1: impact on asset markets. And I gotta say I liked 389 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: Amlin's point about markets are essentially about selling something to someone. 390 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 1: There is a consumer out there buying these goods or securities. 391 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: I think that's really easy to forget. So we talked 392 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:57,439 Speaker 1: about a bond and we say, okay, well, inflation is this, 393 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 1: and GDP we talk about a stock if we say 394 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 1: earnings are this, at growth rate is this? And competitive 395 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: landscapes this. But there's also a supply of the asset 396 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 1: and someone has to buy it, and people have needs 397 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,679 Speaker 1: and they have to plan for those retirement needs. And 398 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,640 Speaker 1: if you look at assets in isolation and not think 399 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: about the market where real humans need to accumulate these assets, 400 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 1: sounds like you miss a pretty big aspect of it. Yeah, 401 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: And the other point I think he made is that 402 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 1: we have had this massive demographic change where we have 403 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: just a lot more older people who are living for longer, 404 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:37,919 Speaker 1: and our financial market hasn't necessarily evolved in step with 405 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: that demographic change. So he used the example of the 406 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: third year US Treasury. I feel like we could be 407 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 1: more creative when it comes to meeting that demographic problem, 408 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 1: Like why do we just need to be focused on 409 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:54,160 Speaker 1: longer term US government debt? Surely there's a banker out 410 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: there who is coming up with some really esoteric, exotic 411 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 1: thing to meet retirement needs. We should do uh an 412 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 1: episode soon specifically on annuities. And because they're the people 413 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: who run that stuff, think a lot about very specifically 414 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: about these questions. And I think we could UH dive 415 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: a lot more into the aspect of what changing demographics 416 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 1: mean for sort of planning people's future financial security. Add 417 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,479 Speaker 1: thoughts the retirement serious, Let's do a serious I can 418 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 1: see our producer looking worried, looking Yeah, alright, that is 419 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,720 Speaker 1: it for this episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm 420 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway, 421 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: and I'm Joe wisn'tal. You can follow me on Twitter 422 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 1: at The Stalwart and follow our producer to foror Foreheads 423 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 1: at foreheads T and the Bloomberg head of podcasts, Francesco 424 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 1: Levie at Francesco Today