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Speaker 1: On this episode of Newtsworld. Overnight last Saturday, Iran launched

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Speaker 1: its first direct attack on Israeli soil, firing hundreds of

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Speaker 1: missiles and drones at multiple targets. I wanted to discuss

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Speaker 1: the escalating tensions in the Middle East. So I'm really

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Speaker 1: pleased to welcome my guests, Adam Weinstein, Deputy director of

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Speaker 1: the Middle East Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible

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Speaker 1: state Craft. Adam, welcome, and thank you for joining me

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Speaker 1: on Newtsworld.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having me speaker Gimlish.

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Speaker 1: So I want to start just with an overview of

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Speaker 1: what just happened. Iran launched nearly three hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: attack drones and missiles against Israel on April thirteenth. Now

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Speaker 1: part of the cause of that was that on April first,

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Speaker 1: Israel launched an air strike that killed a top Iranian general,

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Speaker 1: Brigadier General Muhammad Reza Zahidi, the commander of Iran's Islamic

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Speaker 1: Revolutionary Guard Corps Kuds Force in Syria and Lebanon. The

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Speaker 1: Kuds Force is the militant arm that carries out terrorism

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Speaker 1: and supports the various proxies around the region. The Israelis

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Speaker 1: believed that this general was the key Iranian military official

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Speaker 1: in charge of relations with Hesbelah and Lebanon and the

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Speaker 1: pro Iranian militias in Syria, and they believe the Israelis

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Speaker 1: that he was in fact responsible for organizing and training

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Speaker 1: and preparing for the October seventh attack. So from their standpoint,

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Speaker 1: he was a very high value target. And the fact

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Speaker 1: is he's the most senior IRGC officer killed since the assassination.

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Speaker 1: Of course, i'm solemoni by the US and January of

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty. From your perspective, explain for our listeners what

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Speaker 1: is the cause of the Iranian Israeli on ending hostility.

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Speaker 3: In one sense, the cause is that the Iranian regime

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Speaker 3: has made hostility towards Israel and support for this general

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Speaker 3: support for a Palestinian state a cornerstone of their foreign

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Speaker 3: policy and their legitimacy is somewhat rooted in that. So

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Speaker 3: it's very difficult for them to move away from that.

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Speaker 3: And I think there is genuine ideological support within the

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Speaker 3: elites of the regime so far as challenging Israel. They

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Speaker 3: see that as their place in the world. Iran views

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Speaker 3: itself as a regional power, and one of the ways

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Speaker 3: it asserts itself is by challenging Israel. Now, of course,

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Speaker 3: neither side has really done much to de escalate those tensions.

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Speaker 1: When I hear the members of the Iranian parliament chant

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Speaker 1: death to Israel and death to America, and I see

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Speaker 1: Ayatola Hamani go on national television, which he did about

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Speaker 1: two months ago to assure the Iranian people the death

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Speaker 1: to America is not a slogan, it's a policy. From

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Speaker 1: your perspective, how should I take that? How should I

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Speaker 1: interpret it?

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Speaker 2: I think there's a propaganda element to it.

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Speaker 3: At the end of the day, Remember that the Supreme

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Speaker 3: Leader allowed the Iran nuclear deal to go through, which

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Speaker 3: was with the United States, and of course it was

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Speaker 3: the Trump administration that left that deal. I think death

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Speaker 3: to America has become a slogan. Of course, it's an

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Speaker 3: offensive slogan. I find it offensive, but I don't think

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Speaker 3: it is a policy. I think the policy is challenging

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Speaker 3: America in the Middle East and Iran asserting itself as

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Speaker 3: the regional hedgemon in the Middle East, or at least

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Speaker 3: attempting to do so. I think that's the real policy.

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Speaker 3: At the end of the day, the Iranian government knows

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Speaker 3: that it can't challenge the United States head on, nor

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Speaker 3: can it really challenge Israel head on. And you saw

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Speaker 3: that in the beginning of this crisis. After October seventh,

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Speaker 3: the Iranians actually took a relatively restrained position. Hezbollah did

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Speaker 3: not challenge Israel, despite the fact that Israel was conducting

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Speaker 3: strikes deep inside Lebanese territory. So I think at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day, the regime is pragmatic, but it

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Speaker 3: requires these slogans because it bases its legitimacy on this

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Speaker 3: revolutionary fervor and the idea that Iran is the regional

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Speaker 3: hedgemon and Iran can influence these other states.

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Speaker 1: We get two different reports, one that the substantial popular

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Speaker 1: unhappiness with the regime, you know, things like women refusing

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Speaker 1: to wear headscarves. A couple of years ago, there were

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Speaker 1: serious demonstrations, but the other that the regime basically is

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Speaker 1: pretty solid and probably actually represent it's a substantial majority

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Speaker 1: of the Iranian people. But what's your analysis.

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Speaker 3: Well, of course I'm not inside Iran, but I think

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Speaker 3: both of those things are true. In fact, right now,

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Speaker 3: there's a crackdown on women who aren't in the view

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Speaker 3: of the regime aren't wearing the hitjob properly. So look,

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Speaker 3: we can't get around it. It's an oppressive regime, that's

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Speaker 3: a fact. But there's also substantial support for it from

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Speaker 3: segments of Iranian society. But it's also deeply unpopular among

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Speaker 3: a substantial portion of Iranian society. We can throw out percentages,

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Speaker 3: but I don't know how accurate any of that is

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Speaker 3: in terms of the regime's viability. I think the reality

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Speaker 3: is that its critics are not willing to take the

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Speaker 3: steps necessary or able to take the steps necessary that

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Speaker 3: would overthrow the regime. So for years we've heard people

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Speaker 3: say this regime is on its last legs. The Iranian

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Speaker 3: people are going to rise up. There's a difference between

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Speaker 3: being discontent and unhappy with the regime versus being willing

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Speaker 3: to risk your life and your livelihood to overthrow the regime.

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Speaker 3: And I think there's still a gap between the Iranian

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Speaker 3: people's unhappiness with the regime and their willingness or ability

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Speaker 3: to take the steps necessary to overthrow the regime. So

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Speaker 3: whenever I hear folks say the regime is on his

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Speaker 3: last legs, I take that with a grain of salt.

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Speaker 1: From your perspective and your analysis the capacity of the

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Speaker 1: security forces and the secret police, etc. And the Revolutionary

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Speaker 1: Guard as a military, this is a relatively stable dictatorship

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Speaker 1: for now.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a relatively stable dictatorship.

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Speaker 3: I think the protesters in Iran, especially the peaceful protesters

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Speaker 3: and many of the young people who risk their lives,

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Speaker 3: some of whom were executed for protesting, I think they're brave,

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Speaker 3: but right now they're not able to meaningfully challenge the

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Speaker 3: security forces that protect the regime.

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Speaker 1: So when you look at the attack the other day

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Speaker 1: and you see first of all the sheer volume and

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Speaker 1: the sophistication, because they're firing weapons that arrive at the

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Speaker 1: same time but have to be fired in a calibrated way,

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Speaker 1: because the ballistic missiles will arrive very quickly and the

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Speaker 1: drones will arrive after a couple of hours, And they

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Speaker 1: were able to coordinate all of that pretty well. But

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Speaker 1: in the end, ninety nine percent of the drones and

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Speaker 1: missiles were intercepted, according to both Israeli and American sources.

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Speaker 1: From the standpoint of the Iranians, was that a success

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Speaker 1: or a failure.

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Speaker 3: I think they think it's a success because there was

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Speaker 3: a theatric component to it, and a messaging component. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they launched some of the missiles from the gravesite of

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Speaker 3: the Iranian general who the Israelis killed, and I think

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Speaker 3: it was necessary for them to respond. But the Iranians

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Speaker 3: don't actually want in all out war with Israel because

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Speaker 3: they know it would be potentially devastating for them. From

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Speaker 3: the Israeli perspective, in one sense, okay, well, they demonstrated

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Speaker 3: that they can defend themselves against Iran, although with significant

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Speaker 3: US help. On the other hand, it is an embarrassment

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Speaker 3: for the Israeli state that Iran was willing to cross

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Speaker 3: this red line by launching strikes from Iranian soil into Israel.

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Speaker 3: From Israel's perspective, I think it would have been more

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Speaker 3: acceptable had Iran used one of its proxies like Hasbella. Instead,

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Speaker 3: they launched the strikes directly from Iranian soil, and even

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Speaker 3: though those didn't result in much damage, it is an escalation,

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Speaker 3: and I suspect the Israeli state is going to respond

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Speaker 3: in some way. They're debating that right now. I call

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Speaker 3: it a success from the Iranian perspective. Of course, from

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Speaker 3: a more rational point of view, this isn't a success

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Speaker 3: for either side because the region is destabilizing.

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Speaker 1: So you have President Biden and his senior officials all

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Speaker 1: saying that Israel should claim that they had won because

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Speaker 1: the damage done was trivial, and not strike back. Do

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Speaker 1: you think that's a sustainable position inside Israeli society.

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Speaker 3: With foreign policy, there's always the right answer, and then

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Speaker 3: there's the answer that takes into account domestic politics. And

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Speaker 3: I think what President Biden is counseling that in Yahoo

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Speaker 3: to do is the right answer. I think they should

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Speaker 3: call it even and move on. I don't think it's

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Speaker 3: in Israel's interests to open up a new war with

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Speaker 3: Iran or to potentially open up a northern front with Hesbelah.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's in the US interests, and I

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Speaker 3: think Biden should do everything in his power to try

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Speaker 3: to restrain that in Yahoo. But I also think it

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Speaker 3: is true that at the end of the day, domestic

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Speaker 3: politics matter to political leaders and and Yahoo wants to

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Speaker 3: look strong, and given the track record of Israel over

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Speaker 3: the last six months, I think it is highly unlikely

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Speaker 3: that Israel will not respond. I mean, if I was

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Speaker 3: analyzing this inside the US government, I would say, Israel's

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Speaker 3: likely to respond, even though the Biden administration is counseling

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Speaker 3: it not too.

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Speaker 1: Isn't the pressure of the Israeli public overwhelmingly to hit back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's some of that, and it's understandable

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Speaker 3: because you can imagine how Americans would feel if ballistic

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Speaker 3: missiles were flying over the skies of the United States,

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Speaker 3: even if all of them were and drones even if

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Speaker 3: all of them were intercepted. But I also think it's

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Speaker 3: incumbent on responsible leaders to not simply follow the anger

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Speaker 3: and the sentiment of the general public if following that

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Speaker 3: will lead to a bigger conflict. I mean, the reality

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Speaker 3: is that if a direct conflict is opened up with Iran,

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Speaker 3: or if a northern front is opened up with Hezbalah,

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Speaker 3: Israelis are going to lose their lives. And I think

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Speaker 3: it would be foolish to simply to respond in a

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Speaker 3: way that ends up risking Israeli lives. But again, that's

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Speaker 3: what Naanyah who might do. And nanya who has his

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Speaker 3: own political reasons to appear strong right now, and he

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Speaker 3: has his own political reasons to confront Iran, and of

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Speaker 3: course there's folks in his Cabinet and in the Israeli

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Speaker 3: state who probably feel that right now is the time

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Speaker 3: for a confrontation. They're never going to get a better

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Speaker 3: chance to confront Iran than they have right now. They

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Speaker 3: might truly believe that.

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Speaker 1: It is interesting to me that, well, we all focus

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Speaker 1: on Netnya, who as the Prime Minister and as this

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Speaker 1: kind of world figure who's been around for three decades.

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Speaker 1: There is a war cabinet, and apparently the war cabinet

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Speaker 1: has been having a really intense, serious debate, although the

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Speaker 1: debate seems to be about how to react, not whether

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Speaker 1: to react. At least in the last report I saw

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Speaker 1: Nanya who hasn't come down on either side yet. He

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Speaker 1: literally is presiding over a very serious debate among people,

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Speaker 1: most of whom have an enormous amount of experience at

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Speaker 1: dealing with survival and is.

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Speaker 2: That's true?

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Speaker 3: And I don't think he's decided. I also think he's

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Speaker 3: experiencing immense pressure from the Biden administration to restrain his response.

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Speaker 3: And we also have to remember that Israel is experiencing

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Speaker 3: a little bit of breathing room right now. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the focus is off of Gaza. Sympathy has been restored,

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Speaker 3: for Israel, foreign ministries in Europe and the State Department

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Speaker 3: in the United States that a few days prior to

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Speaker 3: this attack by Iran, we're issuing statements criticizing Israel. Now

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Speaker 3: they're issuing statements expressing sympathy for Israel and ironclad partnership,

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Speaker 3: and so this is an opportunity for Israel to think

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Speaker 3: about what to do next. They have toned down the

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Speaker 3: campaign in Gaza. It's not as kinnectic as it was before.

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Speaker 3: I would argue that this is an opportunity for Israel

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Speaker 3: to step back, cut some of its losses and think

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Speaker 3: about a more sustainable approach to Gaza, including a potential ceasefire.

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Speaker 3: But of course cooler heads may not prevail, and they

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Speaker 3: may see this as an opportunity instead to confront Iran

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Speaker 3: in view set back the Iranian threat by decades by

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Speaker 3: perhaps engaging in certain targeted strikes, including on their nuclear facilities,

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Speaker 3: and they may see that as the way to make

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Speaker 3: Israel safe for long term. I would argue that that

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Speaker 3: risks isolating Israel even further on the world stage, and

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Speaker 3: it won't actually eliminate the threats to Israel.

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Speaker 1: Well, they were faced with a similar situation with Iraq

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Speaker 1: when they went in and took out the French nuclear

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Speaker 1: reactor that the Iraqis were building. And at the time,

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Speaker 1: even the Reagan administration initially condemned their attack, but it

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Speaker 1: did seem to eliminate the Iraqi ability to generate a

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Speaker 1: nuclear weapon in the short run. And I think people

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Speaker 1: like Ntnia who clearly have that as a part of

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Speaker 1: their historic memory of what's going on. But are you

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Speaker 1: suggesting I'm very curious beyond not hitting Iran, would you

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Speaker 1: accept the Biden notion that somehow rough of the big

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Speaker 1: city that's still left in southern Gaza, that they should

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Speaker 1: not go in and they should find some way to

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Speaker 1: accommodate Hamas or how do you see that part of

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Speaker 1: the Israeli equation.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's a tough question, and of course I

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Speaker 3: haven't heard anyone, including myself, offer a true solution in

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Speaker 3: how to deal with Hamas because Hamas is a violent

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Speaker 3: terrorist organization and the reality is that a ceasefire with

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Speaker 3: Hamas is a risk because historically Hamas has not adhered

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Speaker 3: to the ceasefires. But the current game plan isn't working.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we have massive civilian casualties. Israel Is isolated

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Speaker 3: on the world stage. I would argue that the Israeli

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Speaker 3: government needs to look at things from a long term perspective.

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Speaker 3: I think right now they have significant support in US Congress,

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Speaker 3: But I mean, do you really think that's going to

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Speaker 3: hold true when future generations millennials and gen.

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Speaker 2: Z take power.

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Speaker 3: I think Israel is right now destroying its global image,

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Speaker 3: destroying its image in the United States in a way

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Speaker 3: that threatens.

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Speaker 2: Its long term support and long term stability.

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Speaker 3: So I think it would be foolish for the Israeli

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Speaker 3: government to prioritize short term threats over its long term

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Speaker 3: partnerships and prestige in the world. And so going into RAFA.

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Speaker 3: While I acknowledge it might kill more Hamas foot soldiers

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Speaker 3: and there's the potential to get certain leaders, I don't

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Speaker 3: think it's worth it, even from the Israeli security perspective.

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Speaker 3: This has been the calculation by the Israeli government since

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Speaker 3: October seventh. It makes sense to destroy Hamas regardless of

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Speaker 3: the cost. So if there's even a small chance of

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Speaker 3: a senior Hamas commander being an apartment complex, it makes

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Speaker 3: sense to destroy the apartment complex, even if you kill

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Speaker 3: four hundred civilians. In the process, because at least they

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Speaker 3: will have eliminated a Hamas commander. I don't think that's

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Speaker 3: good for Israel long term, because I think what we're

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Speaker 3: going to see is support for Israel in the Internet

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Speaker 3: community eroding over time. For many young Americans, I think

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Speaker 3: this war is the formative impression that they have of Israel.

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Speaker 3: They don't remember Israel being kind of a David and

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Speaker 3: Goliath story in which all of its neighbors had teamed

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Speaker 3: up against it and sought to destroy it, and Israel

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Speaker 3: overcame those kinds of hostilities with the younger generations in

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Speaker 3: Europe and the USC is Israel is a strong military

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Speaker 3: with significant US support that is engaging in war crimes

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Speaker 3: in Gaza, and I think that perception is dangerous for

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Speaker 3: Israel long term. I wouldn't use the word to accommodate

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Speaker 3: Hamas because I think Hamas is a very dangerous organization.

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Speaker 3: I think it's difficult to truly have long term diplomacy

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Speaker 3: with Hamas. I would argue that Israel needs to have

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Speaker 3: long term diplomacy with the Palestinian people in a way

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Speaker 3: that can potentially sideline Hamas over time or force Hamas

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Speaker 3: to be more pragmatic.

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Speaker 1: How would you do that?

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Speaker 3: I would have done things differently from the beginning. If

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Speaker 3: I was in Netanyahu's war cabinet, I would have had

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Speaker 3: more targeted strikes. I would have focused on Hamas leaders.

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Speaker 3: I would have tried to send a message to the

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Speaker 3: Palestinian people that were not against you, were against Hamas.

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Speaker 3: Of course, that's easy for me to say sitting in

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Speaker 3: New York City. I know that net and Yahoo had

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Speaker 3: to keep his coalition together. I know Netanyahu cares about

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Speaker 3: his political future, and I know that the attacks on

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Speaker 3: October seventh radicalized Israeli society. And I can understand that

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Speaker 3: because I saw what nine to eleven did to US society.

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Speaker 3: But I think that approach would have been better than

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Speaker 3: racking up over thirty thousand civilian casualties. I think there

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Speaker 3: was immense sympathy for Israel following October seventh, and if

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Speaker 3: I was in Israeli right now, I would be livid

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Speaker 3: with Netanyahu for squandering that sympathy. And I don't think

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Speaker 3: that eliminating Hamas again in the short term. It might

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Speaker 3: reduce risks in the next ten years, let's say, but

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Speaker 3: they're also engaging in a way that I think to

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Speaker 3: create an organization worse than Hamas in the future. And

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Speaker 3: the Palestinian and Israeli societies are mutually radicalizing one another

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Speaker 3: right now in a way that makes long term peace unlikely.

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Speaker 1: In my view, you're really faced with two incompatible realities

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Speaker 1: and no particular exit ramp, if you will. The whole

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Speaker 1: Middle East in that sense, it seems to me, on

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Speaker 1: the one hand, is moving in the right direction. Egypt, Jordan, uae, Kuwait,

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Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, it's degenerating rapidly. Whether

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Speaker 1: it's the Huthis in the South or Hesbaalah or the

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Speaker 1: chaos in Syria. It's a very mixed bag. And in

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Speaker 1: that context, we have sort of gradually dribbled American troops

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Speaker 1: all over the place. Are those troops peacekeepers or are

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Speaker 1: they actually hostages?

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Speaker 2: I think they used to be peacekeepers and now they're hostages.

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Speaker 2: I think.

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Speaker 3: US air power and US troops is critical to defeating ISIS,

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Speaker 3: and we saw ISIS emerge in twenty thirteen after US

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Speaker 3: troops left in twenty eleven, and they were able to

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Speaker 3: take over Iraqi cities, and then the US had to

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Speaker 3: come back to Iraq in twenty fourteen, and then because

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Speaker 3: we could not train an effective proxy in Syria, we

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Speaker 3: sent troops to Syria as well, special operators. Right now

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Speaker 3: there's eight hundred. It's fluctuated between eight hundred and nine hundred.

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Speaker 3: Now the US troops in Syria are in direct combat,

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Speaker 3: whereas the US troops in Iraq are in an advisory mission.

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Speaker 3: But of course they're still susceptible to attacks from rockets

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Speaker 3: and mortars and so forth, and drones from Iran aligned

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Speaker 3: militias in Iraq. Do those troops achieve something, Yes, they do.

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Speaker 3: They help the Iraqi military and targeting of ISSIS cells,

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Speaker 3: They help maintain their capability. In some sense, they help

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Speaker 3: maintain US influence in Iraq, and they act as a

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Speaker 3: mediator between different factions within the Iraqi military, because the

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Speaker 3: Iraqi military's command structure is not like our military's command structure.

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Speaker 3: It's not a top down command structure. Technically different units

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Speaker 3: report to the Prime Minister, but in reality there's all

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Speaker 3: kinds of different paramilitary wings of the Iraqi security forces

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Speaker 3: that are more or less only accountable to themselves, or

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Speaker 3: they're accountable to Iran, or a mix of both. And

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Speaker 3: so I think having the US military there has been

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Speaker 3: stabilizing in that sense, but the risk is that US

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Speaker 3: troops are in contact. I mean, we thought we saw

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Speaker 3: the three US soldiers get killed at Tower twenty two

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Speaker 3: in Jordan, and that is a risk, and they are

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Speaker 3: hostage to this ebb and flow of hostilities in the

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Speaker 3: Middle East. Before October seventh, folks in the Biden administration

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Speaker 3: thought the Middle East was yesterday's problem and their focus

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Speaker 3: was on Ukraine and East Asia. Well, now we see

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Speaker 3: it's not yesterday's problem, it's today's problem. And I think

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Speaker 3: the benefits that we get out of having US troops

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Speaker 3: in Syria and Iraq are far outweighed by the risks

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Speaker 3: of them getting killed and getting dragged into a greater war.

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Speaker 3: And also, I think we have a duty to our

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Speaker 3: US troops. You know, we could say, okay, three US

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Speaker 3: soldiers got killed, that's a relatively low casualty rate given

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Speaker 3: how long we've been there. But at the end of

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Speaker 3: the day, I think we have a duty to those

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Speaker 3: US soldiers that they're not being killed in vain. And

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Speaker 3: I would argue they are being killed in vain.

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Speaker 1: I don't actually understand what a definable successful mission looks

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Speaker 1: like and you've got a lot of troops there, But

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Speaker 1: that really understates the commitment level because those troops have

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Speaker 1: to have air power, and that means either aircraft carriers

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Speaker 1: or basing rights, and without that air power, you are

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Speaker 1: not capable of having those troops survive on their own.

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Speaker 1: So there's actually a much larger commitment of American capability

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Speaker 1: than just the number of Special Forces or Am I wrong?

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Speaker 1: Is that not correct?

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Speaker 2: No, that's correct.

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Speaker 3: I think from the Pentagon's perspective and Sentcom's perspective, David

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Speaker 3: chi success, I mean ISIS has not been able to

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Speaker 3: revive itself. There's no threat currently of ISIS being able

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Speaker 3: to take even smaller towns, let alone major Iraqi cities.

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Speaker 3: They're able to keep an eye on the Iranians and

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Speaker 3: the land corridor that exists from Iran through Iraq and

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Speaker 3: Syria into Lebanon, and so of course there's benefits that

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Speaker 3: come with that, But the risk is US casualties.

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Speaker 2: The risk is these US troops.

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Speaker 3: Being used as pawns by these unaccountable Iran backed militias

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Speaker 3: in Iraq and Syria and the US being dragged into

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Speaker 3: a bigger conflict. And I think that risk outweighs the

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Speaker 3: current benefits. And I also think we owe it to

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Speaker 3: the American people not to keep US troops deployed in

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Speaker 3: combat zones indefinitely. I mean, we can call it an

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Speaker 3: advisory emission, but it's a combat zone. If US troops

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Speaker 3: are being targeted by drones, that's a combat zone. There's

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Speaker 3: a big difference between the experience of US troops in

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Speaker 3: Iraq and the experts of US troops in South Korea.

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Speaker 1: What would happen if we simply withdrew our troops from

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Speaker 1: Iraq and Syria.

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Speaker 3: Well, I don't think we should simply withdraw them. I

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Speaker 3: think we need to have a plan. I've argued this

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Speaker 3: in a brief wrote I think we need to come

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Speaker 3: up with a plan that allows certain rotations of training

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Speaker 3: missions to continue. I think we do need to continue

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Speaker 3: to support the Iraqi military. First of all, if we

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Speaker 3: withdrew from Iraq, we would probably have to withdraw from

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Speaker 3: Syria anyway, because the troops in Syria rely, to some

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Speaker 3: extent on logistics from Iraq. The reality is other powers

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Speaker 3: would begin to assert themselves. I mean, we would see

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Speaker 3: the Iran aligned militias assert themselves more. Iran would claim

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Speaker 3: it as a victory. We would see perhaps hostilities towards

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Speaker 3: our Kurdish partners in the SDF and Syria. We would

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Speaker 3: see a rebalancing of power in those areas. And of course,

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Speaker 3: I think that's what gives any US president pause from withdrawing,

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Speaker 3: because especially in an induction year, because they don't want

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Speaker 3: to be accused of gifting Iraq to Iran. But what

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Speaker 3: I would step back and say is Iraq is always

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Speaker 3: going to be a greater vital interest for Iran than

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Speaker 3: it is for the United States. And if you want

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Speaker 3: evidence of that, we only have twenty five hundred troops there.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's the evidence. We don't truly prioritize Iraq,

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Speaker 3: or we would have more than twenty five hundred troops.

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Speaker 3: We don't truly prioritize Syria, or we would have more

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Speaker 3: than eight hundred to nine hundred troops. What we're trying

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Speaker 3: to do is protect our interests in Iraq and Syria

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Speaker 3: with a very low investment, and I think we should

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Speaker 3: just accept the reality that we cannot alter conditions on

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Speaker 3: the ground with the investment we're willing to make, and

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Speaker 3: so it makes sense to leave and focus on on

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Speaker 3: bigger issues.

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Speaker 1: So from that perspective, if we did leave, how would

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Speaker 1: that affect our ability to work with Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 2: You know, that's an interesting question.

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Speaker 3: I think Saudi Arabia has demonstrated that it's not going

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Speaker 3: to simply follow the lead of the United States. It's

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Speaker 3: going to engage with China when it makes sense for

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Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia. It's going to engage with Iran when it

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Speaker 3: makes sense for Saudi Arabia. So I think I don't

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Speaker 3: think we need to maintain a footprint in Iraq and

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Speaker 3: Syria simply to protect Israeli interests or Saudi interests, or

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Speaker 3: anyone else's interests.

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Speaker 2: If it's not in our interest.

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Speaker 3: I think there will still be ways to work with

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Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia even if we do reduce our footprint, and

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Speaker 3: I think Saudi Arabia has bigger concerns.

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Speaker 1: Were you surprised by the Saudi's cooperation with Israel in

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Speaker 1: repelling the Iranian attack?

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Speaker 3: I don't know the veracity of all the reports. I

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00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 3: know the Jordanians intercepted drones. I know there's reports the

439
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 3: Saudis did.

440
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 2: It makes sense.

441
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 3: I mean, at the end of the day, Iran violated

442
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 3: the sovereign airspace of these countries. And I don't think

443
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 3: Jordan or Saudi Arabia want to see a greater conflict

444
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,679
Speaker 3: between Iran and Israel. So in some sense, for them,

445
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 3: it makes sense to try to mitigate the damage of

446
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 3: these Iranian strikes on Israel, because of course, if the

447
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 3: damage had been greater, it would be a foregone conclusion

448
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 3: that there's going to be a bigger war, and that's

449
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 3: not in the interests of these countries. All of these

450
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 3: countries have an interest in stability. They do not have

451
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 3: an interest in seeing a escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

452
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 3: And of course these aren't exactly countries that have a

453
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 3: soft spot for Iran.

454
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 1: The fear of Iran may be greater than their fear

455
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: of Israel.

456
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 3: I think that's absolutely true. Now these countries, they are

457
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 3: accountable to some degree to public sentiment, and of course

458
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 3: public sentiment is going to be very sympathetic to the

459
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 3: plight of the Palestinians. But we have to remember neither

460
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia nor Jordan have a soft spot for Hamas either.

461
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 3: I mean, they view Hamas as an ideological threat to

462
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 3: their own legitimates and if Hamas were to truly succeed

463
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 3: in their objective, they view that as offering a blueprint

464
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 3: for a challenge to their own rule. They definitely don't

465
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: want to see Islamist movements that are modeled to some

466
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 3: degree after the Muslim Brotherhood succeeding, because that is a

467
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 3: threat to their own rule.

468
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: Egypt and Jordan are as ruthlessly anti Muslim Brotherhood as

469
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 1: Israel is anti Hamas. I mean, their secret police make

470
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 1: no bones about going after people and blocking them and

471
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: trying to destroy those things. And I think that's part

472
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 1: of why they've been unwilling to accept refugees from Gaza.

473
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 1: They think they would infect their political process with people

474
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 1: who are dedicated to a very very different structure of power.

475
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 2: I think that's some of it.

476
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 3: I also think they just don't want to deal with

477
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 3: the problem of having a protracted refugee population. I mean,

478
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 3: no country wants to deal with that.

479
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: Which gets you back, in a sense to how big

480
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: the dilemma is going to be in the next couple

481
00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 1: of years as Israel tries to work through do you

482
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: get to a Gaza that can be your neighbor. I

483
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: think it's a really difficult problem.

484
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 2: I think it is, and both sides have made mistakes.

485
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 3: I mean, I think it was shortsighted for Israel to

486
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 3: isolate Gaza and have a blockade on Gaza the way

487
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 3: it did. I think it actually empowered Hamas in some ways.

488
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 3: Of course, Hamas is very difficult to work with. It

489
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 3: sometimes gets forgotten that, in some sense, all Hamas ever

490
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 3: really had to do with, say we agree to some

491
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 3: kind of two state solution in principle. It wouldn't even

492
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 3: have to define the borders. It wouldn't even have to

493
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: get into specifics. If it's simply said, we agree to

494
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: some kind of two state solution in principle, there could

495
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 3: be a de escalation. But of course Hamas is not

496
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 3: going to do that.

497
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 2: Now.

498
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 3: That doesn't mean that the way Israel has approached Palestinians

499
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 3: is correct. I mean, look at the way Israel has

500
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 3: allowed settlers to essentially murder and steal from Palestinians in

501
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 3: the West Bank. If you're a Palestinian, what future do

502
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 3: you see with Israel. It's not so simple, as Ajamas

503
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 3: is impossible to work with and Gaza is an impossible neighbor.

504
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 3: I mean, even in the West Bank, where you have

505
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 3: a much easier Palestinian leadership to work with. I understand

506
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 3: there's problems without leadership as well, but even in the

507
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 3: West Bank you see Israel engaging in these kinds of

508
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 3: expansionists maximalist aims, and allowing settlers to go unpunished for murder.

509
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 3: So I think a lot of Palestinians don't see an

510
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 3: off ramp either. They don't see a viable future, and

511
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 3: I think Israel has squandered an opportunity to communicate to

512
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 3: Palestinians there is a future where there can be peace

513
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 3: with Israel. I don't think a young Palestinian would be

514
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 3: wrong in saying they don't see that as a possibility.

515
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: We just did a podcast about two weeks ago with

516
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: the people who do the Gallop Worldwide survey, and Israel

517
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: was one of the top ten countries for happiness and

518
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: they count the views of the twenty percent of Israel

519
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 1: that are Arab who fit into that when we were

520
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: talking about it, and there's apparently zero interest among Israeli

521
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: Arabs in joining the Palestinians. I mean that there's a

522
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 1: dramatically more acceptable world. They're going to have to have

523
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 1: some model of rational behavior for what they do in

524
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 1: Gaza after the fight's over, because they're going to have

525
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: three million people sitting there. It's not something you just

526
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: kind of ignore and turn into a huge refugee camp,

527
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: which is what had happened in the past and leads

528
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: to the kind of violence we now have. So I

529
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: think it's one of the great challenges of statesmanship if

530
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 1: you will, to try to think through what are the

531
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 1: steps that gets you to a sustainable, governable Gaza and

532
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: what are the steps that gets you to a more

533
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 1: acceptable less Bank than the current problems. And I do

534
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: think that means you have to restrain the more aggressive

535
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: elements of Israeli society as well as trying to find

536
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 1: ways to make life better or the average Palestinian.

537
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 3: Well, there's nothing more demoralizing than feeling that your house

538
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 3: or your life can be taken with impunity, and that's

539
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 3: what the Palestinians in the West Bank have been subjected

540
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: to by settlers. Settlers who, by the way, don't contribute

541
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 3: much to Israeli society so far as Israel being one

542
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 3: of the happier countries in the world, including the Arab

543
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 3: Israeli population, I think a lot of that has to

544
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 3: do with the sense of community you see among those

545
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 3: subgroups in Israel. That is a future that it could

546
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 3: exist in the West Bank or Gaza, but it's on

547
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 3: the Israelis to extend civil liberties and civil rights and

548
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 3: to restrain, as you said, the more radical elements of

549
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 3: Israeli society. What if the West Bank were a model

550
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 3: for Gaza. But if you're a Gaza and you look

551
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 3: at the West Bank, well, conditions might be better. It's

552
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 3: not an open air prison, there's more freedom of mobility.

553
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,239
Speaker 3: It might be economically a little bit better. But at

554
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 3: the end of the day, if a settler has a

555
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 3: problem with you, they're able to abuse you with absolute impunity.

556
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 2: So that's not a model either.

557
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 1: Right, so honorarily then I have to go to a

558
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 1: genuine rule of law and some kind of genuinely impartial

559
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: system of justice. It's a huge problem, you know, Adam.

560
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 1: I'm really impressed with how much you've worked on this,

561
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: and I want to thank you for joining me. I

562
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 1: want to encourage our listeners to visit the Quincy Institute

563
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: website at quincinstitute dot org. That's QUI n c y

564
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: I nst dot org, where they can read your latest

565
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 1: report entitled Troops in Peril the risk of keeping US

566
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: troops in Iraq and Syria, and I really appreciate your

567
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 1: taking the time to help educate us today.

568
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me speaker, Gingrich. I think all Americans

569
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 3: should support efforts towards the ceasefire, regardless of where you

570
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 3: fall on the political spectrum, because that's what's in the

571
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 3: US interest and frankly, that's what's in Israel's long term interests.

572
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: Right Well, we will continue the dialogue and maybe in

573
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 1: the not too distant future you can come back and

574
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: brieface as the world keeps changing.

575
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 2: I appreciate you having me on.

576
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Adam Weinstein. You can get

577
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 1: a link to his Quincy Institute report Troops in Peril

578
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: on our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is

579
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: produced by Ginglish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer

580
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 1: is Guernsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork

581
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 1: for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks

582
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 1: to the team at ginglishtree sixty. If you've been enjoying Nutsworld,

583
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple podcasts and both rate

584
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review so

585
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners

586
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: of Nutsworld can sign up for my three free weekly

587
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: columns at ginglishtree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich.

588
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: This is Nutsworld