Speaker 1: The volume. It's the callin Coward podcast presented by fan Duel.
Speaker 1: It's NFL playoff time. No better place to get in
Speaker 1: on the action than fan Duel. FanDuel app is safe.
Speaker 1: You get paid fast, a lot of ways to play
Speaker 1: the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, a
Speaker 1: lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action. Same
Speaker 1: game parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo code
Speaker 1: Colin and download the fan Duel app today. Fan Duel
Speaker 1: now live in Ohio. Hi everybody, and welcome into the
Speaker 1: Friday morning podcast, the callin Coward Podcast. That would be me,
Speaker 1: your affable host. So Chad Millman off of winning week.
Speaker 1: I was three and two in the Blazing five on
Speaker 1: FS one and Fox Sports Radio. So back to back
Speaker 1: winning weeks, fifty five and a half percent for the year.
Speaker 1: So we're going to have my Divisional Round four playoff
Speaker 1: picks coming up. So I thought this was interesting. In
Speaker 1: my career, I've tried to never back management into a corner,
Speaker 1: but there have been as I have gained popularity, concessions
Speaker 1: companies have been willing to make if I want certain
Speaker 1: time off or a certain number of people on a staff,
Speaker 1: and the more popular. I've become. Generally, in any business,
Speaker 1: the more leverage you have, and you know, companies will
Speaker 1: give me certain things. I don't ask for a ton.
Speaker 1: I'm not real high maintenance on this stuff. And it's
Speaker 1: understood in a lot of entertainment businesses. And let's be honest,
Speaker 1: I'm not analogous to Tom Cruise, but when Top Gun
Speaker 1: makes a billion four, there's concessions made Lebron James, Tom Brady.
Speaker 1: They're concessions made. But in order to get those, in
Speaker 1: any industry, you've got to deliver on the other end.
Speaker 1: This is what's interesting. So Aaron Rodgers wants concessions by
Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. He listed five offensive players. Only
Speaker 1: one is elite that he wants the Packers to bring
Speaker 1: back if he'll return. Alanzar, Randall Cobb, Mercedes Lewis, Robert
Speaker 1: Tonne in the tight end are not dynamic players. They're
Speaker 1: unrestricted free agents, so the Packers will have to pay
Speaker 1: more than their worth to retain them. So the takeaways, well,
Speaker 1: you get Aaron Rodgers. So I went back with my
Speaker 1: staff and I said, what is the payoff for Aaron.
Speaker 1: Let's go to Aaron Rodgers last ten. What we would
Speaker 1: call big games, and we tried to as a staff
Speaker 1: be very fair. He had five this year, the play
Speaker 1: in game of the Lions Christmas Day at Miami, that
Speaker 1: Philadelphia game that was a standalone game, Cowboy game at Lambeau,
Speaker 1: and I think it was a Sunday night game against
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. Those were the five big games. Now,
Speaker 1: he also lost to the Vikings in the opener. You
Speaker 1: could say the season opener is a big game, but
Speaker 1: I don't really count that is a big game. That
Speaker 1: would benefit my argument, but I didn't do that. So
Speaker 1: in those games he had two wins and three losses.
Speaker 1: Then we went the previous year and we counted the
Speaker 1: big games as the Niner game that he won during
Speaker 1: the regular season and played very well, the Division round
Speaker 1: Niners game he lost, and there was a Rams game
Speaker 1: Week twelve that was build as the big game on
Speaker 1: TV for Fox that he eventually won. We went to
Speaker 1: the previous year and the two games that felt big
Speaker 1: were the NFC Championship and that game against Brady down
Speaker 1: in Tampa was the first time they'd met Brady as
Speaker 1: a Buck, And so we went and we build those
Speaker 1: as the ten biggest games. Eight regular season two playoff games,
Speaker 1: and the playing game for Detroit we think classifies. So
Speaker 1: Aaron wants all sorts of concessions. He wants five, four
Speaker 1: of which are mediocre offensive players to return. So what
Speaker 1: am I getting for that? Tom Cruise concessions? Top gun
Speaker 1: makes one point four billion lebron for years. Concessions you
Speaker 1: end up in the finals. Miami made a lot of concessions,
Speaker 1: got to the finals four straight years. So Aaron wants
Speaker 1: these concessions. Let's go to his last three years what
Speaker 1: we classify as the ten big games, and here's what
Speaker 1: you get. He's four and six, sixteen touchdowns, seven picks,
Speaker 1: averages two hundred thirty yards. Those are Matt Ryan numbers.
Speaker 1: Those aren't close to Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Herbert. They're not close.
Speaker 1: They're not close to the last five good games for
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. Aaron wants these concessions. He's not delivering championship
Speaker 1: level football. One of the reasons he's not committed in
Speaker 1: the off season. Other reasons he's not willing to play
Speaker 1: with new teammates work out with them in the off season.
Speaker 1: But we thought this was incredibly fair. We went back
Speaker 1: as a staff and picked the ten big games. I'm
Speaker 1: talking not one o'clock windows. Mostly we're talking against Brady Niners, playoffs,
Speaker 1: Christmas Miami, by the way, trail big in that until
Speaker 1: TWA started throwing the picks two who had a concussion
Speaker 1: late in the first half. So if you're gonna ask
Speaker 1: for concessions, you gotta deliver ratings, box office finals appearances.
Speaker 1: Aaron no longer is four and six, last ten games
Speaker 1: sixteen t seven picks, two hund thirty yards a game.
Speaker 1: That's not close to the top six quarterbacks in this league.
Speaker 1: So Jim Harbaugh has been interviewed now on multiple occasions
Speaker 1: by the nc double A. They're saying there are infractions
Speaker 1: they want to investigate. They call them incidents. So Harbaugh
Speaker 1: says he doesn't recall the incident and is refusing to
Speaker 1: acknowledge to investigators that he lied. The story is there
Speaker 1: have been multiple meetings with the ncble A. An admission
Speaker 1: that he lied would likely be a multiple game suspension.
Speaker 1: And this is really my problem with the NBA. What
Speaker 1: the NCAA should be in the business of is finding
Speaker 1: programs that are habitually deceitful, that are consistently deceptive. Harbaugh
Speaker 1: according to the story bought a player a burger in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, Now time out. The IRS should be
Speaker 1: auditing people like Enron or Well's far go where there's
Speaker 1: a pattern of deception, not a plumber who wrote off
Speaker 1: a trip to Vegas for a plumbing convention and probably
Speaker 1: eight three meals with buddies, and not people in the
Speaker 1: plumbing industry. Come on, NCLEA, Jim Harbaugh doesn't cheat. My
Speaker 1: rule on this stuff is on an annual basis. Because
Speaker 1: of the depth of the ncuble A rule book. It's
Speaker 1: confounding and confusing. The coaches should get annual mulligans. You
Speaker 1: buy a kid a sandwich, you give them a ride
Speaker 1: to the airport. That's not what the ncble A is
Speaker 1: in the business of them like the irs, they're in
Speaker 1: the business of Hugh Freeze at ole miss buying players. Really,
Speaker 1: you think Jim Harbaugh is your biggest issue? Come on, now,
Speaker 1: that's what you're concerned about. A hamburger in an arbor.
Speaker 1: New rule. Every coach gets an annual mulligan. You stop
Speaker 1: off at subway kids hungry, he's on the way to
Speaker 1: the airport. To the day before the Thanksgiving weekend starts
Speaker 1: come on NCAA. Anytime you have one element in a
Speaker 1: business that becomes overwhelmingly crucial to the success of that business,
Speaker 1: that business gets predictable. I'll give you an example. Cable
Speaker 1: television political cable television shows Fox, MSNBC. The thing that
Speaker 1: gets ratings on both networks consistently is outrage. So it's
Speaker 1: fairly predictable that on both networks all top shows are
Speaker 1: selling some level of outrage. It's predictable because it delivers ratings.
Speaker 1: The truth doesn't, all strong opinions don't. Outrage sells on
Speaker 1: cable television, and so it usually leads the most popular
Speaker 1: shows now many of the times on both networks. It's
Speaker 1: not particularly outrageous to me, but if a host feels
Speaker 1: or can sell or promote outrage, it works nightly, weekly, monthly, annually.
Speaker 1: Some hosts clearly better than others. So in the NFL
Speaker 1: as the league, due to safety precautions, has made the
Speaker 1: quarterback basically hit free. Has opened up the field for receivers.
Speaker 1: Quarterbacks tight ends to not get hit. Your skill players
Speaker 1: feel much more comfortable going over the middle, going down field,
Speaker 1: and it's become a very much an offensive leaning league.
Speaker 1: We've talked about this. Of the eight teams left, seven
Speaker 1: have offensive coaches and one Sean McDermott, just has Superman
Speaker 1: at quarterback. They would not be a playoff team, certainly
Speaker 1: not a winning playoff team if they had an average quarterback.
Speaker 1: By the way, the Giants have an average quarterback. So
Speaker 1: do we believe the Niners offensive coaches they win playoff games.
Speaker 1: So this year, in my NFL predictions, I did something
Speaker 1: I'd never done before. I got three divisions one through
Speaker 1: four correct. In the AFC East, I had the Bills,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, the Patriots, and the Jets in order. In
Speaker 1: the NFC, I had the NFC East in perfect order Philly, Dallas, Giants, Washington,
Speaker 1: and the NFC North in perfect order Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago.
Speaker 1: There's an argument to be made that I also got
Speaker 1: a fourth half the league right in the NFC South
Speaker 1: because I had Tampa winning and then three non playoff teams,
Speaker 1: but since they all tied, there's no real order to that,
Speaker 1: but three and a half perfectly. Why it's the most
Speaker 1: I've ever done. Why because the league's getting more predictable,
Speaker 1: and I think what you're going to see the best
Speaker 1: quarterback one is all that's left in every AFC division.
Speaker 1: Alan Mahomes, Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence. I think the AFC
Speaker 1: for the next six to eight years, barring a coach
Speaker 1: being fired or retiring. Andy Reid, I'm told may retire
Speaker 1: within the next couple of years, I'm just gonna I
Speaker 1: think you're going to see an AFC that is incredibly
Speaker 1: predictable Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Rinse and repeat. Now,
Speaker 1: if Andy Reid retires, the higher, the wrong coach, different ballgame.
Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean on a week to week, game
Speaker 1: to game basis, it's easier to predict the winners. But
Speaker 1: as the league has become so overwhelmingly quarterback centric, the
Speaker 1: AFC is now a layup. I can tell you right now,
Speaker 1: I like all four of those quarterbacks next year in
Speaker 1: the AFC. NFC is different. You've got overachievers at quarterback.
Speaker 1: So the quality of the defense, the quality of the weapons,
Speaker 1: the quality of the coaching matters much more in the NFC.
Speaker 1: I mean, Brian Dable is taking a really mid level offense.
Speaker 1: They do have a good running back and left tackle.
Speaker 1: Receiving cores is below average, O lines, bottom quarter of
Speaker 1: the league. But I think you know, I looked at
Speaker 1: my predictions this year on divisions outside of the Rams
Speaker 1: falling apart on the offensive line, did not predict that,
Speaker 1: and the Russell Wilson disaster. I totally whipped on that.
Speaker 1: Football is getting easier to predict annually. In fact, the
Speaker 1: team I predicted would be the most improved we got
Speaker 1: that right, Minnesota Vikings. They lost all those one possession games.
Speaker 1: I said they're going to win a majority of not
Speaker 1: lose those one possession games with an offensive coach. Again,
Speaker 1: any business where one element quarterback drives success or productivity,
Speaker 1: becomes a significantly easier business to predict outcomes. As a
Speaker 1: small business owner or hiring manager, success depends on the
Speaker 1: team you surround yourself with. That's why you should check
Speaker 1: out LinkedIn jobs higher qualified candidates more efficiently by matching
Speaker 1: open roles with people who have the skills, values, and
Speaker 1: experience you want. That's what LinkedIn Jobs does. They go
Speaker 1: beyond resume data by using insights from your job post
Speaker 1: company in their eight hundred and seventy five member profiles
Speaker 1: to put your post in front of the most qualified candidates.
Speaker 1: It's really cool. They make it easy to screen and
Speaker 1: rate applicants based on your job qualifications, all on one platform.
Speaker 1: It's why small businesses rate LinkedIn Jobs number one number
Speaker 1: one in delivering quality hires against leading competitors. Go to
Speaker 1: post your job for free at LinkedIn dot com slash column.
Speaker 1: LinkedIn dot com slash column, Place is Great Post your
Speaker 1: job for free. Terms and conditions apply LinkedIn dot com
Speaker 1: slash column. Bet the NFL Playoffs with FanDuel, where every
Speaker 1: play is a rush. This weekend fan duels giving all
Speaker 1: customers a no sweat same game parlay during the divisional round.
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter if you're new to FanDuel or already have
Speaker 1: an account. You'll get free bets back if your NFL
Speaker 1: same game parlay doesn't hit. Same game parlays are the
Speaker 1: perfect way to combine your best two or three or
Speaker 1: four for a chance at a bigger payday. You build
Speaker 1: your own or choose from one of the popular sgps
Speaker 1: pre built for you and FanDuel's top rated sportsbook Gap. However,
Speaker 1: you want to play Bet the NFL with a no
Speaker 1: sweat same game parlay, just sign up promo code Colin
Speaker 1: if you don't already have an account. That's promo code
Speaker 1: Colin to get free bets back if your same game
Speaker 1: parlay doesn't hit. Make Every Moment More with FanDuel, an
Speaker 1: official sports betting partner of the NFL twenty one plus
Speaker 1: in present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, and Louisiana. Permitted
Speaker 1: parish is only Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia
Speaker 1: or West Virginia. First online real money wager only. Refund
Speaker 1: issued as non withdrawable site credit that expires in fourteen days.
Speaker 1: Restrictions suplice terms at sportsbook dot fandel dot com. Gambling
Speaker 1: problem one hundred, next step or text next step to
Speaker 1: five three three four two Arizona one eight eight seven
Speaker 1: eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org,
Speaker 1: slash chat Connecticut one hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com,
Speaker 1: slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, Jersey, and Virginia one eight
Speaker 1: seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one hundred two
Speaker 1: seven oh seven and one one seven for confidential help
Speaker 1: in Michigan, Wan eight seven seven, h Ope n Y
Speaker 1: or techs Hope n Y. For six seven three six
Speaker 1: nine in New York Tennessee Redline eight nine Tennessee Visit
Speaker 1: one eight hundred gamble dot in West Virginia. All Right,
Speaker 1: I had a winning week. I went three and two
Speaker 1: thanks to the Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys. Chad Millman's CCO
Speaker 1: Action Network All odds provided by Fan Duel I said
Speaker 1: last week, I will not be mocked or ridiculed. I'd
Speaker 1: loved Dallas. I think sometimes you have to be honest
Speaker 1: about what a team is. Tampa was eight nine sort
Speaker 1: of what they are and it was unveiled. So this
Speaker 1: week we've got four games, and I feel there's always
Speaker 1: whenever you go into these big games, I try to
Speaker 1: simplify everything. What are these teams at this point and
Speaker 1: what are they not? So one of my I don't
Speaker 1: like big favorites. You know this chat, but Kansas City
Speaker 1: minus eight and a half is my play. Andy Reidoff
Speaker 1: a bye is the greatest NFL coach ever. They met
Speaker 1: in the first matchup, and as Greg Kosell pointed out
Speaker 1: to me, there are some Jacksonville personnel disadvantages on defense
Speaker 1: here they probably won't be able to overcome. They're still
Speaker 1: in a rebuild. I argue they're a year ahead of schedule.
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's off their biggest franchise win in years. This is
Speaker 1: still a quarterback with less than you know, forty starts.
Speaker 1: This is a lot that ask for the Jags. I
Speaker 1: like the Chiefs by ten or more sharper square. So
Speaker 1: it's square, but not like egregiously square. It's square because
Speaker 1: there is there is so much data for a trends,
Speaker 1: so much analysis broadly in this situation for number one
Speaker 1: seeds underperforming against the market, and for the Chiefs specifically
Speaker 1: underperforming against the market when they are really big favorites.
Speaker 1: So that's why what's really interesting, and we're going to
Speaker 1: get through this. With all the games today, there are
Speaker 1: very specific play the trends sides and play the matchup sides,
Speaker 1: and so with this one, the wise guys are playing
Speaker 1: the trends. Agreed, Jackonsville's past defense is not very good,
Speaker 1: but the Chiefs are not nearly as explosive as they
Speaker 1: were with Tyreek Hill. They tend to play ball control
Speaker 1: when they get a lead, and ball control for the
Speaker 1: Chiefs doesn't mean they're just running it fifty times. It
Speaker 1: means shorter passes, it means a little bit more conservative
Speaker 1: on the play calling, not the sort of sling it
Speaker 1: like Patrick Mahomes normally does. So I think that you're
Speaker 1: starting to see the wise guys really like the Jaguars. Here.
Speaker 1: A couple other trends that you should think about is
Speaker 1: that in the past twenty years, number one seeds are
Speaker 1: thirteen twenty five and one against the spread in this round,
Speaker 1: and when they're favored by less than ten points, they're
Speaker 1: eight twenty two and one. So that hits the button
Speaker 1: for two number one seeds this weekend. All right, Hey, listen,
Speaker 1: Miami kept it close with Buffalo with Skyler Thompson, so
Speaker 1: that is that was a little bit of a last
Speaker 1: two times Miami played them. I thought Mike McDaniel out
Speaker 1: Coach McDermott. Get to that in a second. So Giants
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half at Philly is the side
Speaker 1: for me. I worry about Jalen Hurts one hundred percent health.
Speaker 1: I worry of some of its inactivity. I worry about
Speaker 1: a team that's become increasingly injured and turnover prone in
Speaker 1: the last two months of the season. The Giants have
Speaker 1: a way they have to play, but with Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: now running the football more, they're a little better third
Speaker 1: down team. They can play keep away a little better.
Speaker 1: Now that said, Minnesota's awful and Daniel jones two best
Speaker 1: games were against the Vikings, so let's slow down. I
Speaker 1: like Philly to win, but in a division rivalry game,
Speaker 1: Philadelphia was not playing great at the end of the year.
Speaker 1: I think the buye does them no favors here. I'm
Speaker 1: going to take the seven and a half sharper square colin.
Speaker 1: I normally say when I don't have a consensus that
Speaker 1: it is completely split. What I will say this time
Speaker 1: is that there has been really smart money at big
Speaker 1: big wagers on the Eagles and really really smart money,
Speaker 1: big big wagers on the Giants. And this is where
Speaker 1: covering sports betting gets the most fascinating. Games like these.
Speaker 1: We just talked about trends versus matchups. We talked about
Speaker 1: public often we talk about being on the public side,
Speaker 1: fading the public at being against the public. Right now,
Speaker 1: the Giants are a very very public team. They did
Speaker 1: exactly what you just said against the Eagles. They had
Speaker 1: ten or eleven wins in one score games. They were
Speaker 1: a covering machine. The public is down on the Eagles
Speaker 1: right now. They are not even the favorite to win
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl from the NFC, that is the brock
Speaker 1: Purty led Niners. So what you're doing if you like
Speaker 1: the Eagles, you're actually fading the public right now because
Speaker 1: the Giants are a public dog. And where this gets
Speaker 1: really really interesting, really interesting. You are seeing amounts of
Speaker 1: money and massive amounts of tickets coming in on the Giants,
Speaker 1: and this line has been sitting at seven and a
Speaker 1: half since Monday, so we're now with Thursday. You get
Speaker 1: a massive amount of money on one side, and bookmakers
Speaker 1: usually move the line. They haven't moved the line because
Speaker 1: they're also getting significant wise guy play on the Eagles.
Speaker 1: I will tell you, as we often talk about the
Speaker 1: wise guy calls that we get for the favorite podcast,
Speaker 1: Call of Sharp Calls, completely split on this, but we
Speaker 1: do go ahead and decide to make taking the Eagles
Speaker 1: at seven and a half are big balls better the
Speaker 1: week because we like the matchup for the Eagles on
Speaker 1: the field better. We think they're a better team. Jalen
Speaker 1: Hurts Jordan Davis on the field. At the same time,
Speaker 1: have not lost once this year. If we did not
Speaker 1: have the public situation, if the Eagles hadn't been fading
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, when Jalen Hurts was hurt,
Speaker 1: it'd probably be ten point favorites. It's a tough one, though,
Speaker 1: Colin the world is divided. This is splitting the world.
Speaker 1: This and the Death Sailing are splitting the world in
Speaker 1: two Okay, this one. I have no idea. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take the Bengals up to five and a half foun
Speaker 1: duel odds if they I've said this today on the show,
Speaker 1: and I'll get pushedback, I'm sure on social media. If
Speaker 1: the old line was healthy for Cincinnati, I think they'd
Speaker 1: blow out Buffalo. I think they're a significantly better situational team.
Speaker 1: I think they're more balanced offensively. They're not actually as
Speaker 1: beholden to Joe Burrow as the Bill's offense is now
Speaker 1: to Josh Allen. Greg ko Sell said it today, take
Speaker 1: out Allen and Stefon Diggs. Buffalo's offense personnel is just
Speaker 1: not that talented, and you see it on film. Buffalo
Speaker 1: is mistake prone. But they played very poorly against Miami.
Speaker 1: Sean Payton told me the best weeks to be a
Speaker 1: coach when you'll win and play like shit because you
Speaker 1: can ride those players all week. I think Buffalo is
Speaker 1: gonna play a lot better. Bengals are missing three offensive linemen.
Speaker 1: The five and a half is a lot to give Burrow,
Speaker 1: who's an excellent road quarterback. So I probably play Cincinnati
Speaker 1: with no conviction at all. I think Buffalo rebounds and
Speaker 1: plays well. I'll take the Bengals and the point Sharper square.
Speaker 1: So flip around everything you just said and don't be
Speaker 1: a square and take the Bills. Because if to say
Speaker 1: that if the Bengals were not missing three offensive linemen
Speaker 1: would be like saying if I had scored a hundred
Speaker 1: points in a game in Hershey, Pennsylvania, I'd be an
Speaker 1: NBA legend. That's how sort of fantastical that kind of
Speaker 1: if then statement is okay, they don't have the three linemen,
Speaker 1: and we saw what happened to the Bengals when they
Speaker 1: were missing the Ravens team that they not even downfield.
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow can't even drop back like this second he
Speaker 1: drops back, someone is in his lap, and the Ravens
Speaker 1: were doing that with a lot of heavy, heavy blitzing
Speaker 1: and pass rushing. The Bills have a very deep defensive line.
Speaker 1: They're a top ten pressure rate defensive line. Without blitzing,
Speaker 1: and you make the points about playing badly, right. So
Speaker 1: let's look at two teams that did not play well
Speaker 1: in the opening round of the playoffs that were playing
Speaker 1: against backup quarterbacks. Buffalo Bills played Skylar Thompson. They played terrible,
Speaker 1: They had bad, really bad breaks. They still kind of
Speaker 1: won that game handily, right, The score was closer than
Speaker 1: it appeared in the fourth quarter. The Bengals played a
Speaker 1: backup quarterback, They gained two hundred and thirty four yards
Speaker 1: on offense, and they won the game on a lucky
Speaker 1: ninety eight yard fumble recovery by a defensive linement, not
Speaker 1: because their offense did anything special. In Joe Burrow did
Speaker 1: anything special. So this game opened at six and a half,
Speaker 1: It got bet down to three and a half, It
Speaker 1: hit three and a half, and the wise guy started
Speaker 1: pummeling it. Three and a half, four, four and a half, five,
Speaker 1: five and a half. I would tell anybody bet the
Speaker 1: Bills at five and a half. If he gets to six,
Speaker 1: you walk away. Maybe you take a piece of the Bengals.
Speaker 1: But when you get from say four and a half
Speaker 1: to five and a half, you're kind of in these
Speaker 1: dead numbers, right, the games really don't land. It's either
Speaker 1: going to land on six or it might land on four.
Speaker 1: So I say you take you take the five and
Speaker 1: a half with the Bills. I hate all my picks.
Speaker 1: I hope I convinced you of that. I really do
Speaker 1: this one. So you can't. The offensive line thing, you cannot.
Speaker 1: You cannot discount that it's massive well, and also a
Speaker 1: huge component of burrows greatness is the sneaky deep ball.
Speaker 1: He's deadly accurate fifteen yards in yet he's got a
Speaker 1: tony romol he loved at rip, sometimes in a double
Speaker 1: coverage and he's really successful. You just took that out.
Speaker 1: They become much easier to defend. Their a nibble team
Speaker 1: because when you're missing three offensive lineman, the deep, the
Speaker 1: vertical passes out, so they become a very safe offense.
Speaker 1: I don't think you can go to Buffalo, Okay. So
Speaker 1: from time to time I admit this. I actually admitted
Speaker 1: a lot is that my wife's an artist and so
Speaker 1: she sees things I don't. And sometimes I'll see a
Speaker 1: number and go, well, somebody knows something I don't. I
Speaker 1: guess the numbers before they come out, and if there's
Speaker 1: a big variance, and it's about once a week or
Speaker 1: once every other week. I'm like, wow, that's a big variance.
Speaker 1: Vegas knows something I don't know. So the Cowboys have
Speaker 1: a forty eight hour minimum preparation deficit. They didn't get
Speaker 1: home until three in the morning on Tuesday. The Niners
Speaker 1: game was over Saturday afternoon. Also short week, facing now
Speaker 1: the most physical team in the league. It's not like
Speaker 1: it's a finesse team. Like I talked to Gerald McCoy
Speaker 1: about this and he said, forget the prep time. Is
Speaker 1: that body going to be ready for San Francisco for
Speaker 1: three hours? They are just it is sumo wrestling. It
Speaker 1: is just contact and bounding. And my guests on the
Speaker 1: number was five and a half and it came in
Speaker 1: at three and a half. I thought I thought at
Speaker 1: five and a half it was safe at home. Two
Speaker 1: day prep advantage, smartest offensive coach in a game in
Speaker 1: which Seattle is not physical. They've tossed him around. So
Speaker 1: it tells me the game's going to be closer. Vegas
Speaker 1: as smarter than I am, so I'd take the Cowboys
Speaker 1: and the points. And I hate it. Sharper square you are.
Speaker 1: This is the sharpest you've ever said as a as
Speaker 1: a sports analyst talking about betting. You've said many many
Speaker 1: other sharp things in the context of your life, but
Speaker 1: in this particular context, this is the sharpest thing you've
Speaker 1: ever said. It's there, it's fishy, man. The game actually
Speaker 1: opened at four and a half, got bet down to four,
Speaker 1: got bet down to three and a half. Somebody took
Speaker 1: a little bit of money on the Niners at three
Speaker 1: and a half. But this is a pros Joe's game,
Speaker 1: like majority of the tickets on the Niners, majority on
Speaker 1: the money on the Cowboys right now. And there's a
Speaker 1: really interesting narrative taking place in the betting world. And
Speaker 1: this is why I love covering the betting world because
Speaker 1: and why I always have. There is a conversation, a
Speaker 1: shadow conversation, happening amongst millions and millions of betters that
Speaker 1: influences billions of dollars in markets right But it's an
Speaker 1: entirely different narrative than what is happening in sort of
Speaker 1: the general sports debate space when people are analyzing these games.
Speaker 1: The narrative right now is that if you look back,
Speaker 1: who have the Niners played and when they have played
Speaker 1: those teams, has their defense been not as good as
Speaker 1: we thought. And so Brock Purdy's been winning all of
Speaker 1: these games against quarterbacks who a lot of quarterbacks might
Speaker 1: be able to beat if they have Kyle Shanahan as
Speaker 1: their play caller and their scheme designer. And meanwhile, the
Speaker 1: defense terrible first half against Geno Smith, terrible second half
Speaker 1: against the Raiders. You're starting to see a lot of cracks.
Speaker 1: That is a narrative that has taken place in the
Speaker 1: betting community right now with the Niners defense. And so
Speaker 1: I have been shocked to hear about the Cowboy love
Speaker 1: this week, because I mean especially me, I was so
Speaker 1: anti Cowboys last week, sadly, but this week the wise
Speaker 1: guys are on the Cowboys. A stunner for me. I
Speaker 1: hate all my picks. I've never said that. I hate
Speaker 1: everything every week at this time of year, Colin, there's
Speaker 1: nothing to love. You're grinding it out, You're hanging on
Speaker 1: by fingernails, just hoping, dear God, can we get to
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I mean, I thought the Chiefs, I
Speaker 1: just could be Chiefs was so sharp. I was going
Speaker 1: to call my pick cheddar it was so good, and
Speaker 1: now I wouldn't better knuckle on that thing. So what's
Speaker 1: interesting about that is I would say of the of
Speaker 1: the sharp plays, that's the one that I think people
Speaker 1: are most skeptical about. What is starting to get some
Speaker 1: plays the under in that game Andy Reid at Arrowhead
Speaker 1: in his career, the unders are about fifty eight percent.
Speaker 1: When he is a seven point favorite or more, that
Speaker 1: climbs to seven percent. So the unders at fifty three
Speaker 1: could go down to fifty two and a half. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of conversation about that. But that kind
Speaker 1: of game script, if it's an under plays to the
Speaker 1: strength of Jacksonville, let's try keeping it close. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's hard to give up eight and a half at
Speaker 1: the score. If they total up at fifty two, that's
Speaker 1: a lot of points. Yeah, it's a lot of points.
Speaker 1: It's a lot of points. Betting is hard. I hit.
Speaker 1: Everybody can do it. Listen to this Millman. Fifty five
Speaker 1: percent in the year, so my blazing five is done.
Speaker 1: So now I only have four games, so yep, so
Speaker 1: fifty five percent on the year, fifty five and a
Speaker 1: half percent. Always I have always said fifty six is
Speaker 1: my goal, fifty six, fifty six and a half because
Speaker 1: you could be a pro better at fifty six, I
Speaker 1: am not, but I feel good. Last year was my
Speaker 1: worst year. It was the COVID year. I couldn't figure.
Speaker 1: I had no rhythm all year. So I ended up
Speaker 1: last two weeks three and two fifty five and a half.
Speaker 1: I like that. Like it. If you could grind out
Speaker 1: three and two every single week, Yeah, you're professional better.
Speaker 1: That's that's the goal. Right when we did the you
Speaker 1: know Colin, when Simon Hunter and I would go through
Speaker 1: our five best picks every week on the Favorite podcast.
Speaker 1: Our goal every week three and two, three and two,
Speaker 1: three and two, three and two, Because look at that,
Speaker 1: you go three and two over eighteen weeks. You end
Speaker 1: the year nearly twenty games over five hundred. If you're like,
Speaker 1: who's going to walk away saying I just went twenty
Speaker 1: games over five hundred. Betting NFL, and if you're betting
Speaker 1: the same number of dollars, and dollars equates to units
Speaker 1: whatever you uni size. For you, a unit size might
Speaker 1: be a million dollars a game. For me, it's like,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe ten bucks a game, but a unit size,
Speaker 1: I'm up twenty units at the end of the year.
Speaker 1: That's fantastic. So yeah, I always look at a hundred
Speaker 1: bucks a game because if I win it, I take
Speaker 1: I take the little girl out for a snappy tequila
Speaker 1: shot or two. Yeah, and some Mexican food. Yeah, leave
Speaker 1: a tip. That's how I look at free dinner with
Speaker 1: my beautiful redhead, my smart, beautiful, talented, redheaded wife. That's
Speaker 1: the way to go. That's totally the way to go.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Ravens for one second,
Speaker 1: because you were on him. I was on them. That
Speaker 1: was a crazy game last week because it was six
Speaker 1: and a half, then seven, seven and a half, eight
Speaker 1: and a half. It was a sweat. Man. They should
Speaker 1: have won that game. Oh, because it's probably I think
Speaker 1: fans sometimes understand this, but there are There was a
Speaker 1: fourteen point play, yeah in that game, and I think
Speaker 1: about that one play, fourteen point swing on the sneak
Speaker 1: and so when we want now, usually guys complain about
Speaker 1: that when they lose. So I won that bet and
Speaker 1: lost a fourteen point swing. Yeah, so you know it's
Speaker 1: the right side when you lose the two touchdown swing.
Speaker 1: And I felt to the very end, I'm like, I
Speaker 1: knew I was on the right side. Yes, it was
Speaker 1: funny when the Chargers led big at half. My takeaway was,
Speaker 1: this is the Chargers. They're going to get with a
Speaker 1: defensive coach squirrely in the second half. And I was
Speaker 1: sitting with a buddy and I said, I don't know
Speaker 1: who's gonna win. I think the Chargers will. I said,
Speaker 1: you watched this thing with three minutes to go. He
Speaker 1: was a Charger fan. I said you better watch this.
Speaker 1: I said, this thing's gonna get because you know they
Speaker 1: want to get on that flight and go home. You
Speaker 1: do not want to be in a losing flight. They're
Speaker 1: gonna take no big chances. And by the way, Jacksonville
Speaker 1: is pretty good coming from behind. They really are. If
Speaker 1: they throw nine straight times with Trevor and Doug Peterson,
Speaker 1: they're not bad at that. That's kind of a comfort
Speaker 1: level to them. Look, we talked about this in the podcast.
Speaker 1: We liked the Jags, and we liked the Jags because
Speaker 1: of the coaching mismatch, and that's what it came down to.
Speaker 1: We said, specifically, I will not bet on Brandon Staley
Speaker 1: as a favorite on the road against Doug Peterson. People
Speaker 1: will try to categorize them because they both are risk
Speaker 1: taking coaches. Doug Peterson is risks taking in a very
Speaker 1: strategic way. Brandon Staley is okay with his offensive coordinator
Speaker 1: throwing the ball up twenty seven nothing in the second half.
Speaker 1: That's not risk taking, that's just bad decision making completely.
Speaker 1: And I will say one more thing, one more thing
Speaker 1: to back up the Cincinnati play. You know, we will
Speaker 1: do these luck rankings every week right where we're aggregating
Speaker 1: all this different data and it basically says, this is
Speaker 1: what should have happened the game, and it predicts regression
Speaker 1: the following week. It tells you who's overvalued, who's undervalued.
Speaker 1: In a game last week, the luckiest team in the league,
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals. If you played that game with the plays
Speaker 1: that and they happened as they were expected to happen,
Speaker 1: meaning there's not a fumble recovery for ninety eight yards,
Speaker 1: Baltimore is expected to win that game twenty two fourteen.
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you we're on the Bills. It's the
Speaker 1: last word. I think. Yeah, I think Bills and Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I can live with Giants. I feel like crap Chiefs
Speaker 1: is ridiculous. Now, Like I'm going to bet the Eagles
Speaker 1: and it makes me sick to my stomach. I've bet
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, I'm sick to my stomach. I bet the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: I'm sick to my stomach. The only one I feel
Speaker 1: good about it is the bills. So you know what
Speaker 1: that means. Bills are the only ones gonna lose. I
Speaker 1: went drinking with Sean Payton this week. I had dinner too.
Speaker 1: I haven't done this in thirty years. I had two tequilas,
Speaker 1: a glass of wine, and a craft beer. Took me
Speaker 1: forty eight hours to recover. No joke, dude, I did
Speaker 1: the same thing. I was in New York City. I
Speaker 1: went out for dinner on Tuesday night, as I met
Speaker 1: someone for a drink beforehand. One glass of wine, two
Speaker 1: big at an old school, classic Italian joint in the city,
Speaker 1: two big boulevardiers, and I went to bed. I was
Speaker 1: up at three until six. I had a massive headache
Speaker 1: until about five. The next day, I had to go
Speaker 1: to bed about nine o'clock. When I got back to Connecticut,
Speaker 1: it was it was not pretty, was it? Rows? Is
Speaker 1: that where you went? No, we went to Don Bartos,
Speaker 1: which is kind of like it's in on seventeenth and sixth,
Speaker 1: Like you know, I don't mean sure. It's like kind
Speaker 1: of west of Flat Iron. And it was delicious. It's
Speaker 1: like one of those old school places. You're there for
Speaker 1: four hours, the food just keeps coming. Oh God, for
Speaker 1: a night, New York is so much fun. There are
Speaker 1: nights in New York like this night. You walk out
Speaker 1: of the restaurant, You've had a great night. You feel invincible.
Speaker 1: I know. I was in New York one night and
Speaker 1: I have gone out to Delfriscos. That's on the west
Speaker 1: side of town West fifty something. Yeah, it's it's in
Speaker 1: the Fox News building, right it like it's like fifty
Speaker 1: fifty firs or something like that. Yeah. And I was
Speaker 1: staying at the London Hotel, which was down the street
Speaker 1: from it, and the lead singer from Metallica was there
Speaker 1: that night. Oh god. Yeah, So I go to Del Friscos.
Speaker 1: I come out of there and I can remember I
Speaker 1: was with a friend and I said, I understand why
Speaker 1: New Yorkers have no idea where Utah is on a map. Ye,
Speaker 1: when you have a great night in New York and
Speaker 1: I'm looking down an alley and it's just New York.
Speaker 1: It's pre COVID. There's lights. It's gorgeous. I'm like, shit,
Speaker 1: this is there's nothing better. It will make you feel
Speaker 1: like a million bucks. In November, Bono Bono was doing
Speaker 1: this ten city worldwide tour to promote this biography that
Speaker 1: he wrote, Autobiography, and it was a mix of the
Speaker 1: show was a mix of songs and stories from the
Speaker 1: book and like a lot of this stuff in the
Speaker 1: book explained the songs that he wrote, right. And so
Speaker 1: he's doing ten cities opening night Beacon Theater, Upper west Side, Manhattan.
Speaker 1: I got tickets, third row, Like I'm in Bono's grill
Speaker 1: man behind me, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Bono's wife, Tom Hanks,
Speaker 1: the edge. I'm like, this is the greatest New York
Speaker 1: experience you can have. You can't have that anywhere else.
Speaker 1: With this crowd coming in and then we walk out,
Speaker 1: We're done. I go to the Dublin House. You celebrate
Speaker 1: seeing Bono at the Dublin House, which is like this
Speaker 1: old school railroad car bar on the Upper west Side
Speaker 1: that I used to go to when I first moved
Speaker 1: to Manhattan. Nothing is changed in that bar, the same,
Speaker 1: the same Jack Daniels on the shelf from thirty years ago.
Speaker 1: And then you leave and you have a slice of pizza,
Speaker 1: and it feels like I could live forever. It's so true.
Speaker 1: I've had it's. It's I was lucky when I was
Speaker 1: at ESPN. I'd go there about ten times a year,
Speaker 1: never pay for anything. Of course, I've probably paid for
Speaker 1: three drinks in my life in New York. It was
Speaker 1: always on the company and New York's the only thing
Speaker 1: better than New York is free New York, New York
Speaker 1: on an expense account. Oh my god. So I did
Speaker 1: a couple. I did a Joe Nameth a Van and
Speaker 1: a couple of Eli manning events. I just had to
Speaker 1: do live remotes. Good people. Michael k I'd go see
Speaker 1: him if I was there, I'd s thought by the
Speaker 1: radio station. Usually I did, you know, I had a
Speaker 1: handful of people, good people, you'd you know, I had
Speaker 1: to go to the New York radio station. So Tim
Speaker 1: McCarthy was a sales guy. Michael Ky, so he'd see
Speaker 1: good people. Justin Craig. We can edit that out. By
Speaker 1: the way, they don't need props people, but New York,
Speaker 1: New York, big steak wine friends on a fall, early
Speaker 1: late summer, It's seriously walk out. It's like fifty seven
Speaker 1: degrees and it's like a little dusky and it's just
Speaker 1: it's perfect, the flip side, the flip side. When the
Speaker 1: apocalypse comes, I don't want to be there and that
Speaker 1: that's what scares me. Yeah, it's a it's a city
Speaker 1: of heislos. Yeah. I mean, on a good night, you
Speaker 1: could get caught in the middle of a mob hit
Speaker 1: and you'd be like, you know, great night, brief incident.
Speaker 1: I'm good on the best nights. Nothing gets in your way. There.
Speaker 1: You go to the bar, it's great looking people, it's
Speaker 1: on the company. You have a big piece of steak.
Speaker 1: It's just so much energy and fun and arrogance and
Speaker 1: laughter and it's all the things that are you know,
Speaker 1: all right, I gotta get out of here right there.
Speaker 1: I'll see you later the volume. Make sure to check
Speaker 1: out The Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into
Speaker 1: the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports.
Speaker 1: Unique perspective understands behind the rope also chops up with
Speaker 1: guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure
Speaker 1: download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts,
Speaker 1: only on the Volume podcast network,