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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bat. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast and network. This is

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Speaker 1: the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the

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Speaker 1: wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman and I'm

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Speaker 1: joined as always by my BFF, my companion, my confadre

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Speaker 1: professional betterssignment hunter HEADO.

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Speaker 2: So, I man, good morning, Chad, dude.

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Speaker 1: I always feel like on Sunday mornings. I get up,

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Speaker 1: I'm fresh as a daisy, I shower, I shave, I'm stretched,

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Speaker 1: I'm ready to go, and you are looking for the

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Speaker 1: nearest way to collapse after.

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Speaker 3: God knows how many hours are being awake.

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Speaker 2: I know I don't want to. I don't want to

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Speaker 2: complain too much because I'm sure people a cick ofvite.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, this is uh. I like doing this because

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Speaker 2: we honestly do this. And I take a power nap after,

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Speaker 2: so I'm like, this is the best. I'm very excited

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Speaker 2: for the next hour because I get thirty minutes of

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Speaker 2: sleep before heading down to l.

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Speaker 3: Well, let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: This is the strip down in the room eavesdropping version

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Speaker 1: of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going to try

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Speaker 1: it to nail down our final five picks. Now that

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Speaker 1: we know about injuries, of which there are many, lineups

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Speaker 1: have been set. Lines are moving, Simon, here we go.

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Speaker 1: These are the games that we zeroed in on the

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Speaker 1: other day. Plus, we're gonna have to get to the

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Speaker 1: rock and the hard place. I think we got four

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Speaker 1: we like, we're gonna have to find one that we

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Speaker 1: can throw in first. One up, Mammi Dolphins visiting the

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. The Browns are two and a half point favorites. Look,

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Speaker 1: this line has kind of stayed steady all week. I

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Speaker 1: loved it early in the week. On Tuesday it was

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Speaker 1: Chad's choice. I still loved it on Thursday, even though

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Speaker 1: I started to waiver. You talked me off the ledge.

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Speaker 3: It's inching towards three. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Man like Joe Flacco lighting up the Steelers on on

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Speaker 1: Thursday night just makes me realize how much more incompetent

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Speaker 1: this Browns team is and the management is than we

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Speaker 1: even thought.

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Speaker 3: But we still got to put it in. That's my take.

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Speaker 1: Unless you feel like, oh my god, everything I'm here

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Speaker 1: in the past forty eight hours is walk away.

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Speaker 3: From this Browns team.

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Speaker 1: Because sometimes when we are so confident we end up

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Speaker 1: having some blind spots.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm honestly ashamed. I didn't give up the

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Speaker 2: under that that was a bad mess by me just

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Speaker 2: because I love a good wind, weather under especially weather

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Speaker 2: it's affected by the Great Lakes. It's like unique spots.

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Speaker 2: They're saying, it's not supposed to be as bad. That's

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Speaker 2: my hesitation in your chat is you want to bet

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Speaker 2: a rookie as a favorite in forty permur, wind, gust,

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Speaker 2: potential rainstorm not ideal. And you know we can lie

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Speaker 2: to ourselves to say we're simply betting the Browns defense here,

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Speaker 2: but we're gonna need points. We are gonna need this

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Speaker 2: rookie to make plays in this bad weather oday.

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Speaker 4: This this is NFL football. I mean, this is football.

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Speaker 4: And they in the pits are the Big West. That's

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Speaker 4: what it's all about. That's the worst thing. Thus, guards

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Speaker 4: box us up there and don't stay here for stuff.

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Speaker 4: We don't need that, right. If you can't get out

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Speaker 4: in the elements.

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Speaker 2: You shouldn't even go to the game. Historically, this has

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Speaker 2: not been a good spot for TUA. On the road

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Speaker 2: in bad weather. Yeah, like I want to be on

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Speaker 2: the Browns. But it's hard not to see you throw

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Speaker 2: your model out the window there. You're not really betting

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Speaker 2: into something can be predicted here because of the randomness

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Speaker 2: that is highly highly highly windy games like this is

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Speaker 2: they say there's gonna be forty the prior wind gust

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Speaker 2: in this matchup, so we can still do it. It's

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Speaker 2: just you're throwing a huge variable here, and it's that's

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Speaker 2: that's a little bit of nerve wrecking here where it's

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Speaker 2: like I felt confidence because we had the defense. This

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Speaker 2: is a great matchup for the Browns offense because this

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Speaker 2: Miami defense is so bad. But we could we could

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Speaker 2: get unlucky of the weather. That's my only fear with

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Speaker 2: this one.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, it sounds like we're both trying to

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Speaker 1: tuck ourselves out of this game, and I don't know why.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on. But we haven't even

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Speaker 1: talked since Thursday, and we're both feeling the anxiety juju

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Speaker 1: right now. So we're gonna come back to it. We're

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Speaker 1: going to put a pin in it. We don't know

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Speaker 1: if it's going to make the final five yet. Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: at Minnesota. Minnesota was plus two and a half it's

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Speaker 1: now down to two. We've been betting it at two

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Speaker 1: and a half. This was your Simon says, even when

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Speaker 1: we didn't know who the quarterback was going to be,

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Speaker 1: we were hoping it would be Carson Wentz. We got

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Speaker 1: a little nervous when we heard it might be JJ McCarthy.

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Speaker 1: It is Carson Wentz. That's I think why it has

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Speaker 1: moved because professionals like the idea of Wentz more than Jj.

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Speaker 1: We're getting it at two and a half in the contest,

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Speaker 1: we've been betting it at two and a half. I'm

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Speaker 1: feeling pretty confident about this one right now.

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Speaker 2: I'm still into it, but not as confident because the

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Speaker 2: Eagles did get unfortunately get cleared a bunch of guys

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Speaker 2: like Carter I read this morning, probably gonna play, Quinnon, Mitchell,

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Speaker 2: probably gonna play. That's that is a big deal because

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Speaker 2: we were about to have a huge advantage on that

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Speaker 2: back end with this Vikings team. So I'm still on Minnesota,

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Speaker 2: still bet into. Like Chad said, a couple of books

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Speaker 2: have popped back to two and a half. Hard Rock

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Speaker 2: is still sitting at the plus two, so you can

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Speaker 2: shop around five Minnesota plus two and a half I'm

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Speaker 2: still on it. If it makes it one of our five,

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Speaker 2: I'm okay with that. But yeah, it's it's not ideal.

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Speaker 2: We were gonna be in a really nice spot. There

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Speaker 2: is no Carter, no Quinn and Mitchell against his Vikings offense.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, now it's it's an interesting spot. Like we

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Speaker 2: talked about, it's gonna be the biggest, one of the

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Speaker 2: biggest public sides in Philadelphia. So we already know we're

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Speaker 2: gonna be on the side of the books need we're

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Speaker 2: getting a decent number. The question is are are we

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Speaker 2: Are we selling this team at their lowest point, and

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Speaker 2: that's the fear here. But like I said, it's you're

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Speaker 2: looking at the splits right now. It is all Philly money.

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Speaker 2: So pretty interesting that this number, like you said, a

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Speaker 2: couple of books has in Budge, there's still there's still

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Speaker 2: a plus one and a half minus one and a

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Speaker 2: half on this Eagles team, even after all the news

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Speaker 2: came out of them getting Carter back in Quinya and Mitchell.

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Speaker 2: So I like it still, But again there's there's it's

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Speaker 2: not going as perfectly as we were hoping it was

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Speaker 2: going to go for us in this matchup, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, zero for two on the games we were dead

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Speaker 1: set on Tuesday Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: That we're now wavering on.

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Speaker 1: On Sunday, Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Chargers, another one

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Speaker 1: we felt great about. And look, the line has moved

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Speaker 1: in our direction. It took a while, but the money,

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Speaker 1: professional money has finally come in on the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: It was one and a half now it's two.

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Speaker 1: Look, the offensive line issues for the Chargers I think

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Speaker 1: are so significant. We know we're sort of doing this

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Speaker 1: because we think there has to be a regression for

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones and we want to get ahead of that.

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Speaker 1: We think the Colts are overvalued. That's what we're playing here.

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Speaker 1: We're not playing that.

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Speaker 3: We love the Chargers. I feel a little bit.

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Speaker 1: More confident that the line has moved in the Chargers

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Speaker 1: direction because we know that the Colts are going to

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Speaker 1: be the public dog this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's that's been interesting to watch this line movement.

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Speaker 2: Like Chad said, it's shockingly moved towards us, which I

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Speaker 2: thought I was gonna go other way. I thought this

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Speaker 2: is gonna be one of the games I would flip

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Speaker 2: because the public is just so in love with this

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Speaker 2: Colts team and not that it's laziest being like, well

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Speaker 2: they're the five and one team, why they're the dog here.

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Speaker 2: But I think it's the classic case of they don't

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Speaker 2: look at the matchups they've played, the teams they've beaten.

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Speaker 2: We talked about it. To me, the biggest advantage for

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Speaker 2: the Chargers here is the secondary of this Colts team,

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Speaker 2: like they just got lit up by Burssette and backups,

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Speaker 2: like he didn't have Marvin Harris in that game. I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at the I'm looking at the injury part right here.

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Speaker 2: They should have everyone. I know Joe Alt might not

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Speaker 2: play here, but Johnston should be back. He should have

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Speaker 2: lad Keenan Allen and Johnston as wide receivers. That's a

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Speaker 2: huge deal for Herbert. So I don't know, is there

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Speaker 2: a guy I'm missing on the cold second and give

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Speaker 2: us problems in the past rush Like you know, they

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Speaker 2: do have some guys with some sext and they have

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Speaker 2: been able to get pressure, But there is no Max

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Speaker 2: Crosby type here, So I might I might have a

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Speaker 2: blind spot here. It might be too invested in this

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Speaker 2: Chargers team and just just overvaluing them in this matchup.

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Speaker 2: But I've talked about I just horriball losing four straight

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Speaker 2: against the spread. I did go back and look chat.

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Speaker 2: It's never happened in his NFL professional career. This number

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Speaker 2: being under three. I think it's a good number. Like

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Speaker 2: I just think the Chargers are undervalued against the Colts

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Speaker 2: team that how can we not sell this team. They've

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Speaker 2: They've been beating up on bad teams. This is a

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Speaker 2: well coached, good team. I know it's not a big name.

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Speaker 2: He's an old man. Khalil Mack is coming back as well.

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Speaker 2: Those things do matter. Like, that's another pass rush for

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Speaker 2: this Chargers team against Daniel Jones, who we've seen the stats.

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Speaker 2: He's incredible against the Blitz. So we're gonna need them

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Speaker 2: to get pressure with four. I gotta do it. I

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Speaker 2: gotta stay on the Chargers side so we can force

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Speaker 2: this one in. I'm with it. Like I said, there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of games I really like this this week.

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Speaker 2: They're minus one and a half in our contest yet,

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Speaker 2: so we're getting a good number. It's a good matchup.

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Speaker 2: I do like the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think we're forcing it in. We gotta

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Speaker 1: find five. We've been on the Chargers all week in

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Speaker 1: the contest, it's the best number I'm feeling, I guess

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Speaker 1: most comfortable about the Chargers given the injury status and

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Speaker 1: the matchup. My biggest concern is the offensive line. It's

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Speaker 1: a concern everywhere. But I like being against the public

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Speaker 1: in this game.

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Speaker 3: I like faith. I like fading a.

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Speaker 1: Very public dog. So right now, the Chargers are in.

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Speaker 1: We're still wavering on the Viking and the Browns. The

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Speaker 1: two Monday night games. We were feeling very confident about

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Speaker 1: all week, and the numbers have moved aggressively in our direction.

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Speaker 1: We are getting what they like to say is closing

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Speaker 1: line value. Right now, let's talk about Tampa Bay and Detroit.

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Speaker 1: Detroit is now a six point favorite in this game.

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Speaker 1: We got them at four and a half. They are

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Speaker 1: four and a half in the contest. This is after

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Speaker 1: the news that Mike Evans is back for the Bucks,

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Speaker 1: after the news that ameccha Abuka is likely to play

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Speaker 1: for the Bucks. So what we are betting on here

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Speaker 1: is Dan Campbell and Jared Goff basically being seventy percent

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Speaker 1: against the spread in this situation, you.

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Speaker 3: Can name it.

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Speaker 1: Coming off a loss, playing in a dome, playing at home,

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Speaker 1: playing in prime time, you name it. This is a

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Speaker 1: spot where you're back in this team. We're getting great

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Speaker 1: line value. I have seen no reason to talk ourselves

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Speaker 1: out of this game.

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Speaker 2: I see if you.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 2: I was not expecting a Mecca a Buka to be

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Speaker 2: in this game. That's a huge deal when you're missing

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Speaker 2: basically two thirds of your secondary, like Detroit is against

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Speaker 2: Baker here. That's not good. So I hate it. I

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Speaker 2: can't believe he might actually play this game. This guy

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Speaker 2: is supposed to have a Hamsterrick injury, so I mean,

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Speaker 2: he's just a mecha boo because a freak. So I'm

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Speaker 2: hoping they're just trying to scare us off and you know,

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Speaker 2: making Dan Campbell prepare for a guy that's not ever

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Speaker 2: gonna play. That could just be what Tampa is doing here,

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Speaker 2: write a little game and ship. But yeah, I just well,

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Speaker 2: as soon as I heard he might play in this game,

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Speaker 2: I'm just like, why did I make this my favorite

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Speaker 2: bet on Thursday? And like, there's so many games I

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Speaker 2: like this week. But like Chad said, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: we avoid it. It's minus four and a half. I

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Speaker 2: bet heavily into this one, not at four and a half,

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Speaker 2: at five and a half. So you know, you could

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Speaker 2: say it's not that big of a deal, it's just

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Speaker 2: a point. It's like it's crossing key numbers. It is

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Speaker 2: a big deal. You know, this might not be in

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Speaker 2: our biggest public play of the week. It is. Everybody

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Speaker 2: is just coming in on Detroit with us, which I'm

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Speaker 2: shocked by. I thought Tampa would be a really big

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Speaker 2: public dog. You know, some books they still are right,

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Speaker 2: some books do need Detroit. But yeah, I'm I'm shocked

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Speaker 2: this number has gone up to six. Like Chad said,

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Speaker 2: they they gave up the info. These guys might play.

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Speaker 2: A couple of books jumped to six and a half,

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Speaker 2: so it's you. It's very bizarre with the professionals coming

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Speaker 2: heavy on the lines even though they know a mecha

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Speaker 2: Buca might play. Mike Evans is definitely gonna play. You know,

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Speaker 2: I just expected people to love Baker at this back door.

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Speaker 2: It's going the other way. Like you said, Detroit, it's

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Speaker 2: it's moving their direction. A bunch of books a pop

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Speaker 2: six and a half. There's one book out there still

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Speaker 2: five and a half. So can't deny it. Like I

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Speaker 2: like it, I'm on it. I'm just again we've been

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Speaker 2: so well. I'm trying to see if I can avoid

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Speaker 2: these traps we're walking into because we're gonna step in

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Speaker 2: a couple of them. It's just hard half that we're in.

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Speaker 3: With the Chargers multiple times.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's tough where it's like I'm trying to

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Speaker 2: I'm not trying to think myself, but it's like this

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Speaker 2: this line movement. All it does is give me more

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Speaker 2: confidence because it's there's pros on both sides this one.

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Speaker 2: The pros obviously that are really invested, are coming in

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Speaker 2: on Detroit rather than the Bucks. Like the pros that

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Speaker 2: are betting the Bucks, they're just betting small amounts. The

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Speaker 2: guys who like Detroit, they're coming in pretty heavy on

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Speaker 2: this side. So I'll stay with it. Like you said,

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Speaker 2: it's four and a half in the contest. We love

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Speaker 2: line value. That's that's a lot of line value right there.

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Speaker 3: Detroit is in, the Chargers are in.

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Speaker 3: Or Virginia.

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Speaker 1: Houston at Seattle another one that has moved in the direction.

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Speaker 1: I've loved it all week. I haven't really found a

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Speaker 1: reason to walk away from it. That the line is

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Speaker 1: three and a half in the contest, we're getting a

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Speaker 1: half point of value.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna to me.

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Speaker 1: You know, going from three and a half to three

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Speaker 1: and getting the hook at three is as big as

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Speaker 1: getting a point and a half in other scenarios. This

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Speaker 1: to me is massive. I think it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a close game. The Seahawks have not been as good

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Speaker 1: at home. The Texans have been off. The Seahawks just

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Speaker 1: had a massive win on the road in which they

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Speaker 1: lit up the Jags. This feels to me like we

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Speaker 1: got the value in the Texans.

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Speaker 3: We want to maintain that value.

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Speaker 2: You.

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Speaker 1: Even though I won't be able to watch this game,

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Speaker 1: which is probably better for me, I still feel like

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Speaker 1: the Texans are the side, and we can't talk ourselves

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Speaker 1: out of it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just a good game. I probably could find a way,

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Speaker 2: But no, I'm there's not that much to say. We're

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Speaker 2: getting a great number, great defense, great matchup scheme wise,

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Speaker 2: they matchup well against the Seahawks team. And you know

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Speaker 2: Whetherspoon might be back for the Seahawks, that is a

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Speaker 2: big deal. You know. They You're going against a passer

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Speaker 2: that wants to push the ball downfield. That's that's what

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Speaker 2: CJ likes to do. So yeah, it's an interesting matchup.

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Speaker 2: Like Chet said, it's all about the hook. We're getting

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Speaker 2: three and a half. I probably would still take Houston

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Speaker 2: our contest if it was three. That's that's how confident

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Speaker 2: I am just in having that key number in this

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Speaker 2: matchup of two teams that I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: defensive battle. I mean, the last time I looked, the

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Speaker 2: total was like forty. So yep, can't can't avoid it

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Speaker 2: too mony night games here we go.

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Speaker 1: No, it's it's gonna be brutal, all right, are rocking

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Speaker 1: a hard place hard better the week.

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Speaker 2: A rock.

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Speaker 1: The Washington Commanders at the Dallas Cowboys. I'm highlighting this

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Speaker 1: basically because again people know we play in a contest,

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Speaker 1: those lines lock midweek. In the contest, this line is

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Speaker 1: Cowboys plus two and a half At hard Rock, the

347
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Speaker 1: Cowboys are currently one point favorites, so it has flipped

348
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Speaker 1: three and a half points across zero Cowboys from underdogs

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Speaker 1: two favorites.

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Speaker 3: Part of that, I.

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Speaker 1: Think is because wise guy Money has been coming in

352
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Speaker 1: and the Cowboys all week, and now we've got confirmation

353
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Speaker 1: from yesterday. No Terry McLaurin, no Deebo, Samuel Look. Matt

354
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Speaker 1: Eberflus is a terrible defensive coordinator who does not make

355
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Speaker 1: adjustments no matter who he's playing, and he plays a

356
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Speaker 1: soft zone defense which plays to Jaden Daniels strength. I

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Speaker 1: just want to be Devil's advocate here for a second

358
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Speaker 1: about the scheme and the matchup, But from a numbers

359
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:11,440
Speaker 1: point of view, it's basically flipped. It's three and a

360
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,800
Speaker 1: half points according to hard Rock, four points in other places.

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Speaker 1: You like the Commanders all week. I feel like I

362
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Speaker 1: need your take on this because the CLV is extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm I should listen to pros. Didn't didn't

364
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Speaker 2: realize uh Deebo was gonna miss as well. As Terry.

365
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Speaker 2: That's just I don't know. That has to be a

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00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 2: big deal when you're number one now has become Luke

367
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Speaker 2: McCaffrey can't act like that doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.

368
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Speaker 2: And sure you know Diggs hurt himself so he won't

369
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Speaker 2: be in this game as well. For Dallas, like their

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Speaker 2: secondary is just atrocious.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't matter, Like you know, it doesn't matter who's playing

372
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:56,159
Speaker 1: that secondary. Their scheme is so bad, Like who cares?

373
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Speaker 2: I don't know. I think it does matter. But you've

374
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Speaker 2: seen the total come down, Like again, even though all

375
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 2: the money is coming on the over, it's calmed down.

376
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Speaker 2: I gave it out. I think it was fifty fifty

377
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Speaker 2: five and a half. Yeah, some books are down to

378
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:12,680
Speaker 2: fifty three at this point. So yeah, like you said

379
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 2: that there's value on Dallas here, I'm in a weird

380
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 2: spot where I haven't taken any position on it, but

381
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Speaker 2: we're strictly betting it because the line value and it

382
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 2: being plus two and a half, So at the end

383
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 2: of the day that would have to be your call.

384
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 2: I just I don't have a read on it. We're

385
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,639
Speaker 2: simply playing it because it is a good number. And

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00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,399
Speaker 2: like we said, the professionals. That's the side they were on.

387
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,399
Speaker 2: I said that on Thursday. I believe that the pros

388
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 2: were coming in on Dallas. They knew something, and I

389
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 2: just didn't have a good info and I obviously missed

390
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Speaker 2: that number.

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00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 1: All right, So right now we're locked in on Detroit,

392
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 1: we're locked in on Houston, and we're locked in on

393
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Speaker 1: the Chargers. The last game I want to raise, and

394
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,200
Speaker 1: then we got to find two games from I think

395
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 1: a choice of four is New England at Tennessee. This

396
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 1: was our big balls bet of the week, the line

397
00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:02,919
Speaker 1: of seven. Do you have enough balls to put it

398
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 1: in the final five? It is seven and a half

399
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 1: in the contest.

400
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, auto play, waiting for you to bring it up.

401
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 2: There's not much talk about here. You can go back

402
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 2: with star shows Tennessee. Seven and a half. Got it?

403
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 2: Got to be in one over five?

404
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 3: All right, So then that's great. We got four?

405
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 2: Is it?

406
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 3: We got four?

407
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,640
Speaker 2: Let's tuckle the games you're avoiding here? Jets plus one

408
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 2: and a half? No, no, you know you're supposed to

409
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: bet it. I don't want to bet it either. I'm

410
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 2: okay if you avoid.

411
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 3: It, but you're going to bring up the Bears in

412
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Speaker 3: the Saints.

413
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: You gotta bring up the Bears in the Saint Saints

414
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 2: or plus five and a half. I mean, you can

415
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 2: look at the live lines, I believe, yeah, four down.

416
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 3: Actually there's some places it's three and a half.

417
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 2: Just like Cleveland. It's a bad weather game, So could

418
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 2: that benefit this Saints team that's an indoor team, And

419
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,439
Speaker 2: is Caleb going to struggle on this weather worse than

420
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 2: Spencer Rattler? Again, how does anyone know that? Like, there's

421
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 2: just no no predictive analysis with that one. But like

422
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 2: me and Ched said during the week, this was a

423
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,680
Speaker 2: Saint's number, This was a Saint side. The Bears are

424
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 2: not good enough to be a five and a half

425
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 2: point favorite over a Saints team that's just not that

426
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: much worse of them. So I'm not checked to the

427
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 2: line movement. I just thought it was really interesting that

428
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,119
Speaker 2: in our contest that they were plus five and a half.

429
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 2: That talk about line value, they are down to three

430
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 2: and a half. But it's another game where it's like,

431
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 2: you know, obviously, if I'm betting it, I feel much

432
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 2: more comfortable taking the dog, especially with bad weather in

433
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 2: this matchup. But is it one of my five favorite

434
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 2: bets chat. I don't know. I just I doubt I

435
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 2: had to bring it up just because of the line movement.

436
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 1: No, no, I get it, and I saw it this morning too,

437
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 1: and I knew we were going to discuss it. My

438
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 1: take on the Bears right now is this, to me,

439
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 1: thinking about this as a Bears fan, maybe one of

440
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 1: the most important games they've had, probably in five years.

441
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 3: I'll tell you why this is the moment.

442
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 1: Are the Bears a good team that can manage their

443
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: emotions and come back from a stirring victory and beat

444
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 1: a team that they're.

445
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 3: Supposed to beat.

446
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 1: Or are they a team that is still up and down,

447
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:25,120
Speaker 1: good coaching, good talent, but undisciplined, still making mistakes that

448
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 1: can't move on in a short week and really beat

449
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 1: a highly competitive, scrappy team. That's it. That's the narrative

450
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: for this game. We don't know that yet. So how

451
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 1: comfortable are we betting one side or the other? I'm

452
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 1: not comfortable betting either. I think we're having a conversation

453
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 1: right now about Cleveland, Minnesota and Dallas, and.

454
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 3: I still think it's Cleveland.

455
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,120
Speaker 2: Okay. I'll tell you what the five I put in

456
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 2: early in the week even though I did say I

457
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: was on Washington, it was Houston plus three and a half,

458
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 2: it was Detroit plus four and a half or minus

459
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 2: four and a half. Surprisingly, I did put Dallas in

460
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 2: early in the week of plus two and a half,

461
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 2: interesting Chargers minus one and a half, and then obviously

462
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 2: Tennessee plus seven and a half.

463
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 3: So so it's really coming down too.

464
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 2: If you do you want to switch out Dallas for Cleveland,

465
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,199
Speaker 2: like that could be the one we dodged. Because right

466
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: now the Cowboys they're catching seventy three percent of the money.

467
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: Eighty six percent of the money is on the Chargers.

468
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 2: I am shocked that much money is coming in on

469
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 2: that Chargers side. So people say we don't bet with

470
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 2: the public, those are two very public sides that we're on

471
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 2: right there. It's got to come back around. The public

472
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 2: has been getting killed. I mean yesterday, I think they

473
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 2: went zero to five once again against the top five

474
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 2: teams for college football, which was getting the most amount

475
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: of money. So it's just been professionals who have been

476
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 2: going against the public have just been cashing huge. So

477
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 2: we could be stepping into it here, But I like

478
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 2: trusting on my early week pick because it's before I

479
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 2: get all this bullshit in my head, all this noise

480
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 2: from the weekend of all these different teams. And yeah,

481
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 2: if you want to switch Dallas for Cleveland again, I'm

482
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 2: betting to Cleveland way more than I have any money

483
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: invested in the Cowboys. If you want to own that one,

484
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 2: I am happy to make that switch.

485
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 3: Let's do it.

486
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: I got I just feel so much better betting a

487
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: good defense against a terrible Miami team and a two

488
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 1: quarterback who doesn't travel. We're going for Cleveland. I feel

489
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: good about it, all right. Our final five Cleveland minus

490
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,479
Speaker 1: two and a half, the LA Chargers minus one and

491
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 1: a half, the Tennessee Titans. That's right, the Tennessee Titans

492
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half. Those are the three games

493
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: we got on Sunday, and then we're betting into the

494
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: Monday night football doubleheader. We got Detroit in the contest.

495
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: We play there at minus four and a half. That

496
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: is our line. They are now at six. I want

497
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:00,959
Speaker 1: to play in Houston. We get them at three and

498
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 1: a half. They're at three.

499
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 3: I think we both.

500
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: Still be comfortable playing them at plus three. That is

501
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:12,199
Speaker 1: the final list. One more time, Cleveland minus two and

502
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: a half, Tennessee plus seven and a half, Chargers minus

503
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,719
Speaker 1: one and a half, Detroit minus four and a half,

504
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: Houston plus three and a half. We got there, brother,

505
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's gonna be hard. It's gonna be

506
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 1: really it's gonna be a really tough day. This has

507
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.

508
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 3: We will be back.

509
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 1: On Sharper Square YouTube tonight live at seven point thirty

510
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 1: to recap all the misery and glory of the day.

511
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video,

512
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:49,119
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513
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Speaker 1: wherever you get your pause rate, review, subscribe, leave a

514
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Speaker 1: spot stars say whatever you want.

515
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