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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: We had to buy you in this episode, as we

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Speaker 1: preview the All State Sugar Bowl for when the sixth

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Speaker 1: seed All Miss Rebels take on the three seed Georgia

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Speaker 1: Bulldogs at the superdoma eight pm Eastern Time on New

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Speaker 1: Year's Day. I'm your host Seth Wilcock, joined by a

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Speaker 1: recent SEC transplant who knows a thing or two about

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Speaker 1: how sweet or bittersweet this game can be. He's Scott

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Speaker 1: big Time Bogman Boggs. How are you and have you

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Speaker 1: gotten past the PTSD that Texas left in your mouth

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Speaker 1: by losing in the semi final version of this game

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Speaker 1: just a few years ago against Washington.

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Speaker 2: What did I do to you to deserve this today? Seth?

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Speaker 2: Why are we bringing this up? That is my question?

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Speaker 2: So yeah, look, that was brutal. That was Michael Pennix

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Speaker 2: was unbelievable in that game.

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Speaker 3: I wish Texas would have won that game. It would

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Speaker 3: have been a little bit.

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Speaker 2: More Chigan would have been a lot of fun, a

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Speaker 2: lot more fun than it's going to be tomorrow as

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Speaker 2: we're recording this. But that game, dude, just Michael Pennix

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Speaker 2: was putting the ball in the bucket. There was something

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Speaker 2: about him playing in the Superdome that was awesome that night.

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Speaker 2: He just he could not miss and the Longhorn still

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Speaker 2: had a chance to win at the end and couldn't

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Speaker 2: do it, a lot like the Steelers last week. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: thanks for bringing that up, Seth. Appreciate that.

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Speaker 3: So so the answer is, no, you've not gotten over.

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Speaker 2: No, of course I've not gotten over. You don't get

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Speaker 2: over those things. What are you talking about. I still

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Speaker 2: haven't gotten over the fumble at the goal line and

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Speaker 2: Jack Sawyer picking it up and running it in the

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Speaker 2: end zone for Ohio State, either on Henderson taking one

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Speaker 2: to the house right before halftime either No, Seth, I

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Speaker 2: haven't gotten over these. I haven't gotten over Colt McCoy

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Speaker 2: getting hurt in the first quarter against Alabama. I haven't

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Speaker 2: gotten over any of this. No, of course we don't.

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Speaker 1: It lives on, It lives on in infamy forever. So Cloggs,

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Speaker 1: I appreciate you putting your your feelings and you know

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Speaker 1: the not so great memories of the Sugar Bowl in

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Speaker 1: the past, and jump into this with me, and before

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Speaker 1: we get rolling here, shout to all of our people

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Speaker 1: still riding along shotgun with us as we head into

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Speaker 1: the New Year's Day Bowl games. Yet again, we're going

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Speaker 1: to round it out here with the final one of

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Speaker 1: the slate. Please do a quick favor give this video

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Speaker 1: a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content.

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Speaker 1: Also make sure you're subscribing to the channel if you're new,

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Speaker 1: so you don't miss a moment of college football and

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Speaker 1: NFL betting covers. The rest of the way, and we

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Speaker 1: are going to the Sugar Bowl here again, kicking off

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Speaker 1: eight pm Eastern Time, Thursday night. Right now, as far

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Speaker 1: as the line goes, we haven't seen much movement in

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Speaker 1: this game. The Bulldogs still sitting as six and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites, as nearly every single shop out there,

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Speaker 1: Oh Miss. They're coming off that forty one to ten

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Speaker 1: drubbing of two Lane in the first round, advancing to

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Speaker 1: twelve and one straight up eight and five ats on

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Speaker 1: the season, with their only outright loss being that forty

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Speaker 1: three to thirty five defeat at the hands of Kirby

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Speaker 1: Smart earlier this year in Athens. Good news on the

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Speaker 1: injury front though for the ReBs Kawan Lacy, their star

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Speaker 1: running back. He is up for this game. He is

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Speaker 1: listed as probable. Da kwan Wright also listed as probable.

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Speaker 1: He's their tight end one. Their tight end too, Caleb

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Speaker 1: Odum he is questionable. Georgia, they enjoyed their bowl week

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Speaker 1: or bye week, excuse me, after blowing out Alabama twenty

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Speaker 1: eight seven in the SEC Championship game. They're twelve and

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Speaker 1: one straight up only six and seven ats though. Injuries

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Speaker 1: for them include their nickel cornerback joonell Aguero and their

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Speaker 1: edge Gabe Harris Junior.

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Speaker 3: They're both questionable BP projections. Right now, we have Georgia.

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Speaker 1: By a less than a point, and the public betting

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Speaker 1: trends right now, fifty percent of tickets, sixty five percent

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Speaker 1: of cash are on UGGA. Right now we have seventy

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Speaker 1: three percent of tickets, seventy two percent of cash is

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Speaker 1: on the under.

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Speaker 3: So, Bogs, which way are you going in this game?

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Speaker 2: Look real quick before we dive into it. Do you

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Speaker 2: think because I heard this narrative a lot this week,

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Speaker 2: Because sure, this game, I feel like this game is

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Speaker 2: secretly tough, But would this be the most surprising upset

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Speaker 2: of this round if all miss beat Georgia.

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Speaker 3: I've heard that too.

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think if Indiana or Ohio

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Speaker 1: State would lose, I'd be a little bit more surprised

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Speaker 1: to be hones.

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Speaker 2: Miami beating Ohio State would be the biggest surprise to

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Speaker 2: me too. Yeah yeah, so, and this game was great

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Speaker 2: the first time they played it. But I think we

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Speaker 2: all know what the issue is and why our difference,

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Speaker 2: you know, in Georgia by a point versus the spread

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Speaker 2: here is because Lane Kiffin has gone and I really

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Speaker 2: would have liked to have seen, you know, a fully

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Speaker 2: non distracted Ole Miss team walk into this game. I

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Speaker 2: think Lane Kiffin should have stayed personally, But I think

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Speaker 2: if you give Kirby Smart a month to prep basically

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Speaker 2: because I don't, we don't think they ever really considered

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Speaker 2: too Lane a threat to beat Ole Miss, right, so

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Speaker 2: sure they've been prepping for All Miss for a long

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Speaker 2: time here, so All Miss. Biggest issue beyond the coaching

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Speaker 2: staff is the injury to Kawan Lacy. Like you said,

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Speaker 2: he is going to.

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Speaker 3: Play shoulder right shoulder.

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Speaker 2: Shoulder injury is tough for a running back. They take

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Speaker 2: a lot of hits and he is easily their best

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Speaker 2: weapon on offense, so very good pass blocker as well.

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Speaker 2: So it's gonna impact that so ole Miss was able

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Speaker 2: to move the ball in the first matchup, but since

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Speaker 2: then Georgia's defense has given up. They gave um twenty

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Speaker 2: to Florida the following week twenty one to Mississippi State,

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Speaker 2: but in the last month, no one has scored more

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Speaker 2: than the ten Texas put on Georgia. When Georgia beat

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Speaker 2: the breaks off of my Longhorn, so Georgia Tech had

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Speaker 2: three field goals and Bama scored you know, one touchdown

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Speaker 2: against him in the SEC title game. In fairness, ole

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Speaker 2: Miss's defense has improved a lot as well. Oh you

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Speaker 2: scored twenty six on them the following week after this

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Speaker 2: first matchup, but then they held South Carolina only fourteen

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Speaker 2: Mississippi State to nineteen two lane to ten. I think

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Speaker 2: the best case scenario for ole Miss has turned this

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Speaker 2: into some type of a shootout, but I think even

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Speaker 2: Georgia wins that right. Georgia has played to their competition,

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Speaker 2: which makes me a little bit nervous in this game.

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Speaker 2: It's not my favorite, yes, and it is why they're

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Speaker 2: six and seven against the spread this season, But we've

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Speaker 2: seen them dive in the mud with Georgia Tech and Florida, right,

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Speaker 2: and we've seen them win shootouts against Tennessee and this

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Speaker 2: Old Miss team. I've been really impressed with Gunner Stockton

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Speaker 2: this season as well. I mean, this dude has been

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Speaker 2: absolutely great. Eighth and completion percentage in the country and

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Speaker 2: just under five hundred rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, only

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Speaker 2: two fumbles. He has been great. Zach Urat Branch is

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Speaker 2: obviously the best weapon for Georgia, but the run game

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Speaker 2: was great against the ReBs the first time out. Fraser

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Speaker 2: had seventy two yards, Bowens had sixty one stocked in

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Speaker 2: at fifty nine in a score. Also, the great work

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Speaker 2: from the tight ends Lost and Lucky he had three

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Speaker 2: touchdowns ASCREI that's the biggest missmatch.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it feels like that Miss.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I just think that Ole Miss Rebels lineback and

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Speaker 1: corps got absolutely obliterated.

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Speaker 3: In that game.

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Speaker 1: And Georgia, like, while they don't have a brock Bowers

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Speaker 1: at tight end box, it feels like they just have

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Speaker 1: a lot of good tight ends like Lost and Lucky

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Speaker 1: and Depths.

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Speaker 2: They have a great group, that's for sure. Yeah. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Delp and Lucky were great in that game. That first

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Speaker 2: game as well, so and that's I think that's another

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Speaker 2: thing that you mentioned. Right, you don't have Lad McConkie,

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Speaker 2: don't have Brock Bowers. There's no Todd Gurley in here,

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Speaker 2: you know, have Matthew Stafford. There's not like a giant star,

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Speaker 2: no Georgia. I think that's why people kind of are

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Speaker 2: giving Ole Miss a little bit more credit. But obviously

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Speaker 2: with the coaching stuff, no one is really giving them

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Speaker 2: a lot of credit. And it's hard to beat the

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Speaker 2: same team, the same team twice in a season. But

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Speaker 2: I think Georgia had their bad game last time against

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Speaker 2: ole Miss and they still won. Georgia held the ball

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Speaker 2: for thirty seven to thirty nine, they had five hundred

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Speaker 2: and ten yards, and they only won by eight thanks

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Speaker 2: to that seventeen point fourth quarter. Right, they were down

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Speaker 2: nine going into that quarter. So I trust Georgia. I

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Speaker 2: trust Georgia to adapt. They are less distracted, even you know,

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Speaker 2: with the layoff, maybe we see a little rest, but

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Speaker 2: they played way better on defense down the stretch than

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Speaker 2: they did in that game or previously before that game.

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Speaker 2: Remember they gave forty one to Tennessee and I'd have

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Speaker 2: a ferver and comeback in that game as well early

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Speaker 2: in the season, so the defense is locked in recently. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: this is a very tough game, but I'm gonna take

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Speaker 2: Georgia and lay the points here. I just think this

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Speaker 2: is too tall of a task to ask for All Miss. Again,

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Speaker 2: don't think it would be the most surprising thing to

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Speaker 2: happen in the tournament if All Miss won this game.

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Speaker 2: They're a very good team. But I gotta take Georgia

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Speaker 2: and Kirby Smart here with this rest. Okay.

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Speaker 3: I thought long and hard about which way I wanted

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Speaker 3: to go.

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Speaker 1: I thought about, maybe do I tease All Miss up

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Speaker 1: and maybe grab them out like a ten and a

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Speaker 1: half and pay the juice. But then it came to me, Boggs,

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Speaker 1: All Miss first half plus three and a half minus

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Speaker 1: one oh five right now from our friends over at

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Speaker 1: hard Rock. It'll be three and a half weeks since

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Speaker 1: Uga last played, and this is a team that, while

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Speaker 1: they've probably been preparing for All missed that entire time.

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Speaker 1: Box They've started slow a tremendous amount of times this season.

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Speaker 3: With their food. Yes, yeah, especially in those games.

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Speaker 1: They're like our Pittsburgh Steelers, where they played down to

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Speaker 1: their competition, especially early.

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Speaker 2: They were down nine going into the fourth quarter in

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Speaker 2: this game, yeah, the first time out, so yeah, I.

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Speaker 1: Like this, But they were tied with Florida at the half.

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Speaker 1: They were up just one against the ReBs. In that

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Speaker 1: first game at the half, they trailed Auburn ten to three.

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Speaker 1: And a half they trailed Bama twenty four to fourteen.

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Speaker 2: At the half.

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Speaker 1: The first time they played, they trailed Tennessee twenty one

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Speaker 1: seventeen at half. I think Pete Golden can get the

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Speaker 1: squad up at least for the first half. I think

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Speaker 1: in the second half maybe Georgia starts imposing their will

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Speaker 1: a little bit. But like I expect Ole Miss come

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Speaker 1: out here firing on all cylinders. Man. Like, they're ranked

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Speaker 1: right now seventh and ten plus yard plays, they have

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Speaker 1: a top three passing offense. They're going up against a

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Speaker 1: seventy seventh ranked passing defense in Georgia as well that

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Speaker 1: is still struggling to get after the quarterback and ole

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Speaker 1: Miss their fifteenth in pace.

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Speaker 3: So even if Uga happens.

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Speaker 1: To bust a big play to Branch or you know,

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Speaker 1: many ballins or someone like that, Fraser, one of these

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Speaker 1: guys gets out to a big score early, I think

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Speaker 1: they can come broaring back.

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Speaker 3: And the Revs.

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Speaker 1: They have scored the seventh most points per game in

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Speaker 1: the first half this season twenty point one, while Uga

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Speaker 1: there twenty fourth at sixteen point eight.

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Speaker 3: So I love this first half play.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna admit to you, Box, I've never in my

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Speaker 1: entire life bet a first half ats play, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna do it here. There's the first time for everything,

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Speaker 1: and now let's go Pete Golden here in the first thirty.

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Speaker 2: Hey, look, listen to that gut man, That's what I say,

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Speaker 2: and stuff like this, because the reason you take the

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Speaker 2: first half is because you know, Kirby makes massive adjustments.

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Speaker 3: Obviously he always does, and you know.

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Speaker 2: That's why he is respected as one of the best

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Speaker 2: coaches in college football right now. And so yeah, I

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Speaker 2: like that bet. A little bit of rust, probably a

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Speaker 2: good game plan from Ole Miss to start here. Obviously

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Speaker 2: the offense can hum when they get going. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I like this, Bet. I just for your sake, I

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Speaker 2: hope it's not like Key one Lacey is probable and

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Speaker 2: then he has like five snaps in the first half.

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Speaker 3: That, yeah, that would be trouble. That would be trouble

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Speaker 3: because they.

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Speaker 2: That worries me about if can one Lacy is truly

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Speaker 2: probable and going to get eighty percent of what he

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Speaker 2: normally does in the first half. I like this bet

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Speaker 2: for you.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And before we keep it moving, a real quick

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Speaker 1: reminder that if you're looking to up your game in

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Speaker 1: sports betting, then join our exclusive sports betting discord community

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Speaker 1: connect with expert handicappers who provide free picks for the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL,

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Speaker 1: college football player props, live betting, and so much more,

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Speaker 1: the experts, and track your success today. Again, that's bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash Chat.

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Speaker 3: To join our.

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Speaker 1: Exclusive sports betting community and bugs, let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: get to your top player props for this one. You

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Speaker 1: have a quad pack and one of them starting with

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Speaker 1: any time touchdown for.

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Speaker 3: Our friend Trinidad Shambliss.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Shambliss, I have for an any time touchdown on Obviously,

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Speaker 2: we're not one hundred percent shore on the status of

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Speaker 2: Kiwan Lacey. And when you get down there near the

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Speaker 2: goal line. I mean, at any point, Shambless is a

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Speaker 2: threat to run. So you're getting plus on this from

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Speaker 2: what I saw a little bit earlier as well, so

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Speaker 2: I think it was like plus one ten plus one

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Speaker 2: oh five some of that neighborhood. So plus on Shambless

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Speaker 2: to score. I like it. Let's take it. And then

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Speaker 2: Nate Fraser is my other touchdown call here for the Dogs.

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Speaker 2: You know, I do think they're going to be able

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Speaker 2: to run the ball a little bit in this game.

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Speaker 2: Nate Fraser is their main guy, so I think he

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Speaker 2: gets in as well. I only have two other picks,

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Speaker 2: two yardage ticks in this game, both on the Georgia side,

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Speaker 2: because again, I just think the whole offense looks different.

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Speaker 2: If Kewan Lacey is like, you know, automst decoy right

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Speaker 2: like the and there is, you know you should do that.

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Speaker 2: If he's not one hundred percent to play, make him

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Speaker 2: active and make him a decoy at least. So I

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Speaker 2: just don't really know what's gonna go on with Ole Miss.

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Speaker 2: So they're both on the Georgia side. The first one

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Speaker 2: is Gunners Stockton. I told you I'm impressed with him.

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Speaker 2: Over two hundred and twenty four and a half. He

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Speaker 2: had two eighty nine and four in the last game

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Speaker 2: they played. Ole Miss has been great against the passes here,

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Speaker 2: but the strength of schedule against the pass fo Ole

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Speaker 2: Miss has been weak. Listen to some of these passing

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Speaker 2: offenses ex. SETH, Georgia State, Kentucky, LSU, Washington State, OWEU,

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Speaker 2: South Carolina, Citadel, Florida, Camrio Taylor's first start for Mississippi

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Speaker 2: State and Tulane twice right, so when they had a

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Speaker 2: good passer in there, RETSLAF got them last year. For

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Speaker 2: last week, excuse me for over one hundred yard three

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Speaker 2: hundred yards Stockton to eighty nine the first time Taylor

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Speaker 2: Green was over three hundred as well. But I mean

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Speaker 2: some of these Camaro Taylor, Okay, DJ Lagway has been

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Speaker 2: so hit or miss Citadel's FCS Leonora sellers in that

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Speaker 2: whole offense has been terrible all year. For South Carolina,

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Speaker 2: they got owe you in the midst of the materior injury, right,

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Speaker 2: Wazoo has been awful. We know the problems with the LSU.

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Speaker 2: They they got Kentucky week two right after they bench Calzada.

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Speaker 2: So I feel like the strength of schedule for ole

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Speaker 2: Miss and their passing defense is a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a mirage because of what we've seen from this schedule here.

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Speaker 2: So we'll go over. Gunner stocked in two hundred twenty

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Speaker 2: four and have passing yards, and we're gonna pay that

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Speaker 2: with zach RYE Branch go over fifty nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: He had eight catches for seventy one yards in the

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Speaker 2: first matchup the slot CBS. A Ryan in that game

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Speaker 2: did give up all seven of his targets for forty

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Speaker 2: four yards. Zach RYA Blanch. Branch plays mainly out of

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Speaker 2: the slot and he has had at least six targets

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Speaker 2: in seven of his last eight games. The only game

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Speaker 2: where he didn't have at least six targets was that

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Speaker 2: game against Charlotte where they were blowing them out and

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Speaker 2: just didn't need him to keep getting targets in that game.

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Speaker 2: So zach RYE Branch Gunner stocked in my easy calls

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Speaker 2: here along with touchdowns from Shambliss and Nate Frazer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like both the both the passing and receiving

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Speaker 1: property throughout their bogs, specifically because I was like actually

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Speaker 1: thinking that maybe ole Miss could win this game out right,

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Speaker 1: and I thought about going on that money line. But

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Speaker 1: despite Pete Golding and what he brings this team, this

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Speaker 1: defense is still really leaky, right. Like we saw Tulane

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Speaker 1: be able to move onto the ole Miss side of

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Speaker 1: the field pretty easily last week, they just couldn't really

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Speaker 1: get it inside the red zone a whole lot. And

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Speaker 1: even in that first game against Georgia, I think Georgia

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Speaker 1: had what eight possessions, eight scores on those possessions as well,

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Speaker 1: So that is really like the hole that could sink

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Speaker 1: this ship. And I think that Gunner, Stockton and Branch

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Speaker 1: could be the two that go ahead and capitalize on that.

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Speaker 3: So I like those plays.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to our same game parlay of the week

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Speaker 1: for this very game, and in leg one, I'm going

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Speaker 1: with my ole Miss first half plus three and a

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Speaker 1: half minus one oh five and then Bogs, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: take your Georgia minus six and a half for the

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Speaker 1: game minus one ten because this isn't super correlated, but

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Speaker 1: it can still very much have that almost keeps it tight.

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Speaker 1: And then Georgia in the late YEP plus three fourteen

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Speaker 1: is what we're getting on there. So this is our

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Speaker 1: highest SGP that we've put together as far as odds

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Speaker 1: and payout wise, bogs of the quarterfinals, so you got

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Speaker 1: like a little more than three to one on your

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Speaker 1: money back.

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Speaker 2: This is gonna be one of those where the percentage

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Speaker 2: win graph does a lot of this, you know, a

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Speaker 2: lot of up and down. Yeah, so I like.

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Speaker 1: It, Okay, And for the final score predictions, bogs, get

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Speaker 1: us out of here. What is the final score for

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Speaker 1: this very game in the All State Sugar Bowl.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go twenty eight to twenty Georgia. I do

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Speaker 2: think that this is kind of the opposite of the

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Speaker 2: other games where I say, oh, I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: Indiana scores late to put it away. I think whoever

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Speaker 2: scores late to put it away. I think this is

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Speaker 2: going to be like probably twenty eight twenty or I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: twenty eight to seventeen for a lot of the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 2: and then maybe ole Miss kicks a field goal late,

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Speaker 2: maybe tries to get the on side kick, and that's that.

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Speaker 2: I just think Georgia wins this game.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, I almost took ole Miss to win this one.

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Speaker 1: I will not be shocked if they do either. Like

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Speaker 1: I know, Georgia is playing in them all time high level.

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Speaker 1: But I also feel like Ole Miss playing with a

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Speaker 1: little bit of house money right now. They're not supposed

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Speaker 1: to be here. They lost their head coach. Yeah, exactly,

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Speaker 1: They're gonna go out Charlie Weisst Junior and Pete Golden

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Speaker 1: Company and put together a good game plan. I do

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Speaker 1: have Georgia winning this though. Thirty four thirty one. I

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Speaker 1: don't hate it if you want to go with the

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Speaker 1: ReBs Ats in this one. I don't hate it if

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Speaker 1: you want to do a little money line sprinkle on

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Speaker 1: them as well. I just need a little bit better

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Speaker 1: payout than the two to one or so that you're

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Speaker 1: getting back on that to really take that sprinkle. So

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Speaker 1: Bogs that is going to do it for us once

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Speaker 1: again here on the Betting Pros College Football Show. Be

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Speaker 1: sure though, we have a ton of content out there

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Speaker 1: this week already Bogs best bets for the remaining bowl games. Also,

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Speaker 1: we have three micro podcast episodes that are out for

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Speaker 1: the remaining three college football playoff games for this week

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Speaker 1: coming your way, so make sure you're checking those out.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're also commenting your favorite all state Sugar

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Speaker 1: Bowl picks. We want to hear from you and while

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Speaker 1: you're here, go ahead make sure you're smashed that like

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Speaker 1: bund and subscribe to the channel. If you're new for

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Speaker 1: Scott big Time Bogman, I'm said, Wellcock, take care of y'all.

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Speaker 3: Happy New Year.

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00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,879
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