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Speaker 1: We have breaking news this morning.

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Speaker 2: The International Court have just released its preliminary ruling, and

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Speaker 2: we're also going to be joined here by Treta Parsi

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Speaker 2: to talk about the ruling, which is being heralded as

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Speaker 2: a victory for South Africa because the Court has allowed

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Speaker 2: the case to go forward. I'm kind of new with

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Speaker 2: some of these devices here, so I'm going to try

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Speaker 2: to put this clip up here as Hoving and Post

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Speaker 2: is calling it un stunner. Top Court finds genocide risk

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Speaker 2: in Gaza. The Court has given Israel one month to

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Speaker 2: change its military operation to reduce the risk of genocide.

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Speaker 1: It found that.

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Speaker 2: There is a that South Africa has made a plausible case.

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Speaker 2: Let me play real quickly a little bit from the

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Speaker 2: American judge who issued the ruling, which we do not

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Speaker 2: have yet in kind of full PDF.

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Speaker 1: Form, but they issued it from the Hague. Here we go.

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Speaker 3: In the Court's view, the foreman facts and circumstances are

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Speaker 3: sufficient to conclude that at least some of the rights

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Speaker 3: claimed by South Africa and for which it is seeking

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Speaker 3: protection are plausible. This is the case with respect to

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Speaker 3: the right of Palestinians and Gaza to be protected from

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Speaker 3: acts of genocide and related prohibited acts identified in Article

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Speaker 3: three and the right of South Africa to seek Israel's

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Speaker 3: compliance with the latter's obligations under the Convention.

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Speaker 2: And so we're joined now by Treta Parsi, who let

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Speaker 2: me pull up tree to what you had said in

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Speaker 2: a breaking fashion you wrote, the ICJ just ruled against

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Speaker 2: Israel the termin that South Africa successfully argue that Israel's

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Speaker 2: conduct plausibly could constitute genocide. This is a devastating blow

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Speaker 2: to Israel's global standing.

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Speaker 1: Unpacked that for us.

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Speaker 2: Why is this considered a devastating blow when South Africa's

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Speaker 2: most kind of expansive demand was an immediate cessation of

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Speaker 2: all hostilities.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much, Rian, good to be with you.

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Speaker 4: This is still devastating. The fact that South Africa asked

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Speaker 4: for all of those things, of course in an immediate testation,

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Speaker 4: was a bit optimistic at the end of the day.

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Speaker 4: But what the Court has ruled is overwhelmingly in favor

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Speaker 4: of South Africa. And also the division between the judges

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Speaker 4: was I think stronger than expected. It was essentially only

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Speaker 4: two judges that at times objected to the ruling. This

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Speaker 4: is devastating because at the end of the day. This

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Speaker 4: means that the South Africans have made a plausible case

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Speaker 4: that genocide is taking place. Genocide is the crime of

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Speaker 4: all crimes. You have to put yourself in Israel's position

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Speaker 4: in terms of a historical effort by these raelis to

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Speaker 4: break out of its international isolation, which has largely been

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Speaker 4: very successful. Remember, up until nineteen ninety one, most countries

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Speaker 4: in the world did not recognize it or did not

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Speaker 4: have the diplomatic relations Israel. That all changed because of

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Speaker 4: the OSMO process, and since then it's been very very successful.

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Speaker 4: Then Israel has been able to normalize itself to a

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Speaker 4: very large extent, at least in the West. Now you

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Speaker 4: have Israel in the last couple of years increasingly being

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Speaker 4: associated with apartheid. That term is increasingly public being used

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Speaker 4: to describe it, and now you also have a genocide

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Speaker 4: ruling against it. Of course, the final ruling has not

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Speaker 4: come in yet, but essentially enough evidence has been presented

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Speaker 4: to warrant a court to say that an injunction is

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Speaker 4: needed and this needs to be investigated further. What that

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Speaker 4: will do to Israel's international isolation and standing, I think

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Speaker 4: it's going to be very significant, and if I could

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Speaker 4: just add one point right. Keep in mind, in the

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Speaker 4: last couple of years, they have worked so hard to

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Speaker 4: delegitimize the BDS movement and pass laws against it, laws

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Speaker 4: that are arguably unconstitutional in the United States. And this

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Speaker 4: has not been done because they were worried about the

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Speaker 4: economic impact of the BDS movement on Israel. It's because

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Speaker 4: of the diplomatic and political impact in terms of essentially

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Speaker 4: delegitimizing Israel. Well, nothing has delegitimized Israel more than this

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Speaker 4: court fooling and the fact that one of the primary

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Speaker 4: evidence that was being used in the court was Israeli

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Speaker 4: political statements themselves that were used against Israel in order

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Speaker 4: to show the genitiside.

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Speaker 2: Let me play a response real quickly from Netan Yahoo

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Speaker 2: here if I can.

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Speaker 5: Israel's commitment to international law is unwavering. Equally unwavering is

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Speaker 5: our sacred commitment to continue to defend our country and

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Speaker 5: defend our people. Like every country, Israel has an inherent

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Speaker 5: right to defend itself. The vile attempt to deny Israel

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Speaker 5: this fundamental right is blatant discrimination against the Jewish States,

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Speaker 5: and it was justly rejected. The charge of genocide level

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Speaker 5: against Israel is not only false, is our rageous and

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Speaker 5: decent people everywhere should reject it. On the eve of

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Speaker 5: the International Holocaust Remembrance Day, I again pledge as Israel's

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Speaker 5: Prime Minister, never again, Israel will continue to defend itself

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Speaker 5: against Hamas, a genocidal terror organization. On October seventh, Hamas

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Speaker 5: perpetrated the most horrific atrocities against the Jewish people since

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Speaker 5: the Holocaust, and it vows to repeat these atrocities again.

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Speaker 5: The war is against Hamas terrorists, not against Palestinian civilians.

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Speaker 5: We will continue to facilitate humanitarian assistance and to do

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Speaker 5: our utmost to keep civilians out of harm's way, even

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Speaker 5: as Hamas uses civilians as human shields. We will continue

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Speaker 5: to do what is necessary to defend our country and

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Speaker 5: defend our lit.

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Speaker 2: So that's Prime Minister management that Yahoo responding calling it discrimination,

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Speaker 2: calling it outrageous, pledging to continue the war effort. What

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Speaker 2: did you make of his respects there?

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Speaker 4: It's very defensive and very predictable. Of course, at the

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Speaker 4: end of the day, the Court is not in any way,

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Speaker 4: shape or form saying that this rule doesn't have a

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Speaker 4: right to defend itself. But what it is saying is

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Speaker 4: that what Israel calls defense is plausibly genocide and that

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Speaker 4: it needs to investigate that further. And it's giving these Raelis,

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Speaker 4: as you mentioned, thirty days to address some of these things.

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Speaker 4: And it also calls on Israel to prosecute those members

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Speaker 4: of government that have been making genocidal statements, that includes

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Speaker 4: the Natania. This is putting the United States in a

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Speaker 4: very significant bind because, as the court reminded Israel, its

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Speaker 4: rulings are binding, but it is the Security Council that

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Speaker 4: is tasked with enforcing the implementation of this, and that

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Speaker 4: means that there's very likely going to be a resolution

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Speaker 4: at the UN Security Council this coming week, and it

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Speaker 4: presents the United States once again with that dilemma, does

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Speaker 4: it actually stand with international law and improve this or

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Speaker 4: does it go against it, further isolating the US. By

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Speaker 4: Catlett pick.

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Speaker 2: Up on that exact point, because the New York Times wrote,

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Speaker 2: and it's fairly slanted report on this, on this ruling.

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Speaker 2: At one point they wrote, the court has no means

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Speaker 2: of enforcement, and it is not clear how Israel will

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Speaker 2: respond to the decision. But we now have you know

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Speaker 2: who's response. But you would never see The New York

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Speaker 2: Times right, the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade,

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Speaker 2: but it has no means of enforcement. Although that is true,

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Speaker 2: Like Alexander Hamilton made that point about the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 2: Andrew Jackson has made that point about the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 2: The Supreme Court has made its ruling, Now let it

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Speaker 2: enforce it. It has no actual mechanism of enforcement other

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Speaker 2: than the kind of norms around the court and the

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Speaker 2: respect that other institutions have for the Court rulings and

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Speaker 2: the respect that the population has for the Court rulings.

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Speaker 2: So it is not true that the Court has no

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Speaker 2: means of enforcement. It has The United Nations does, in

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Speaker 2: fact have means of enforcing its rulings. So the question

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Speaker 2: is can it enforce those rulings? And so what are

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Speaker 2: the means of enforcing those rulings and what process can

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Speaker 2: we look for going forward? So Israel has in one month,

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Speaker 2: Israel has to report back to the court. Let's presume

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Speaker 2: they continue to participate with this process. What then happens

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Speaker 2: if the Court in a month decides that Israel is

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Speaker 2: not taking steps to minimize the risk of genocide.

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Speaker 4: So well, I think will happen first is that you

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Speaker 4: will have a UN Security Council resolution. The Algerians are

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Speaker 4: already discussing it, and that would then adopt the ruling

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Speaker 4: and essentially give it the enforcement capability of the UN

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Speaker 4: Security Council again finding international law. And again will the

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Speaker 4: United States v to that again as it has vi

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Speaker 4: to the previous calls per season, And this is really

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Speaker 4: you know, it's stretching the ability to be able to

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Speaker 4: tolerate the double standards of the US's conduct when it

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Speaker 4: comes to matters of this time. If these ratings then

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Speaker 4: come back with a report, it's a question as to

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Speaker 4: whether they will. They may actually choose not to engage

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Speaker 4: at all and try to dismiss the legitimacy of the

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Speaker 4: court altogether. But if they come back and it is

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Speaker 4: not acceptable, I mean, it's going to be a legal

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Speaker 4: rankling for quite some time. But the issue is that

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Speaker 4: the political consequences and costs for Israel will continue as

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Speaker 4: long as this is a live case and they're not

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Speaker 4: living up to what the court is demanding, and that

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Speaker 4: is going to inflict the political costs of the US

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Speaker 4: even more so perhaps from the Europeans, from whom you know,

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Speaker 4: international law and international institutions actually matter much more than

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Speaker 4: it does to the US political culture, and this has

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Speaker 4: just become a massive headache. And I've asked this on

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Speaker 4: your show before. For what, but what reason are we

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Speaker 4: accepting paying all of these different costs when there actually

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Speaker 4: is a pathway to a ceasefire that actually couldn't put

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Speaker 4: an end to not only the fighting, to the plausible

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Speaker 4: cases of in aside, but also to the political dilemmas

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Speaker 4: that the US is inflicting on itself as well.

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Speaker 2: That I earlier today where you said that you thought

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Speaker 2: that so far the ICJ in South Africa have had

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Speaker 2: more influence on Israel's actual behavior so far than the

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Speaker 2: Biden administration. What change in behavior have we seen that

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Speaker 2: you think can be linked to this international effort.

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Speaker 4: We saw a very clear effort by the Israelis to

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Speaker 4: try to ethnically cleanse Garza by pushing the Egyptians and

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Speaker 4: the Jordanians as well as some African countries, trying to

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Speaker 4: see if they would take essentially two million gudens and

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Speaker 4: they would depopulate Godsa. We have seen a decline in

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Speaker 4: those efforts, certainly a decline in the public statements about that.

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Speaker 4: I think it is quite reasonable to suspect that that

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Speaker 4: has something to do with the Court, because if the

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Speaker 4: court is investigating Israeli war crimes, and in the midst

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Speaker 4: of that, the Israelis are very openly lobbying to see

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Speaker 4: if countries will aid them and ethnically cleansing cause, that's

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Speaker 4: obviously not going to be helpful for them in the case.

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Speaker 4: And if that is the case, then that suggests that

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Speaker 4: this idea that international law is completely toothless in this

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Speaker 4: specific case. You know, just a mere application of South

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Speaker 4: Africa's complained to the ICG may have had a greater

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Speaker 4: impact on Israel's conduct than what the Biden administration claims

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Speaker 4: that it has achieved with all of its quiet whispers

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Speaker 4: in the background.

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Speaker 1: Who you know.

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Speaker 2: Who is with the Center for International Policy has released

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Speaker 2: as statement I want to read real quickly said. Today's

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Speaker 2: ruling of the International Criminal Court, which ordered Israel to

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Speaker 2: undertake provisional measures to ensure that Palestinians in Gaza are

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Speaker 2: protected from acts of genocide is enormously significant. International legal

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Speaker 2: for such as the ICJ are appropriate venues for the

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Speaker 2: handling of such consequential matters, especially in situations as dire

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Speaker 2: as that in Gaza. If we support the creation of

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Speaker 2: a global community based on shared rules rather than simply

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Speaker 2: might makes right, it is absolutely essential that all countries,

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Speaker 2: including the United States, acknowledge the legitimacy of this ruling

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Speaker 2: and take necessary steps in response. And to that point,

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Speaker 2: I wanted to last questions. I know you got to run,

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Speaker 2: and I appreciate you jumping on with us early this morning.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to quickly play my exchange yesterday with State

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Speaker 2: Departments spokesperson Vedan Patel about this exact question of whether

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Speaker 2: or not h the US would respect whatever the ruling

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Speaker 2: was that the next day here, I'll play that and

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Speaker 2: then get your response.

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Speaker 4: End.

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Speaker 6: Want to go back to the j question, setting aside

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Speaker 6: opining on how the how the preliminary verdict might come out,

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Speaker 6: would the US at least commit to not vetoing enforcement

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Speaker 6: of whatever the court rules one way or the other.

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Speaker 7: I'm not going to commit to any action from up here.

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Speaker 1: Question from earlier.

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Speaker 6: Doesn't that undermine the US US insistence that other countries

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Speaker 6: ought to follow these court rulings? What does it leave

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Speaker 6: of the kind of rules based order If countries can

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Speaker 6: pick and choose decisions.

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Speaker 7: That's certainly not what I was indicating. Again, I think

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Speaker 7: we need to take a step back here because a

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Speaker 7: decision has not come down, and no one here knows

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Speaker 7: unless you can tell the future what exactly that will be.

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Speaker 7: I'm not going to commit any US government action from

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Speaker 7: up here within the ostracies of any body. What I

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Speaker 7: can say is that we believe that the allegations that

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Speaker 7: started this process that Israel is committing genocide, we believe

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Speaker 7: those to be unfounded. Simultaneously, though, we'll continue to raise

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Speaker 7: with our Israeli partners the moral and strategy comparative that

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Speaker 7: they take additional steps to minimize civilians.

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Speaker 2: That's more or less his response. How do you feel

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Speaker 2: the State Department will evolve after today's actual ruling now

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Speaker 2: that they can't do that, Well, we don't know how

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Speaker 2: they're going to rule.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a problematic enough for the State Department

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Speaker 4: to continue to defend the US's refusal to push this

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Speaker 4: rule in the direction of the SEATSPY. Already, this is

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Speaker 4: just going to make matters worse. Let me make two

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Speaker 4: points of this. First of all, it is quite fascinating.

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Speaker 4: I don't remember exact numbers, but we looked into it

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Speaker 4: that senior Biden administration officials have more or less stopped

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Speaker 4: using the term rules based international order. Since October seventh,

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Speaker 4: there's been a significant decline, and that tells you stoping

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Speaker 4: a clear awareness in there that they know very well

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Speaker 4: that there is no consistency whatsoever and there's no legitimacy

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Speaker 4: or credibility talking about it, given how the United States

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Speaker 4: under Biden has acted on it in the case of Gauda,

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Speaker 4: and it's been the time frame is social short after

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Speaker 4: Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, so that the discrepancy the

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Speaker 4: double standards are just so late. Secondly, I think it's

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Speaker 4: also important to note here that Biden's beer hawk unconditional

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Speaker 4: support for Israel in all of this may actually have

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Speaker 4: contributed to this, because had Biden adopted a more measured

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Speaker 4: approach and actually pushed back against Israeli accessive in a

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Speaker 4: much more impotent way, the Israelis may not have ended

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Speaker 4: up engaging in activities that the Court then would find

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Speaker 4: plausibly constituting a genocide, and that I think tells you

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Speaker 4: again how problematic it is when the United States gives

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Speaker 4: blank checks to some of its partners, whether it's Israel,

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Speaker 4: saviu Ravier. Whoever it undermines US national interest and security,

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Speaker 4: it certainly undermines the partner's interest as well, because look

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Speaker 4: at where it Israel is finding it suffering. So paradoxically,

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Speaker 4: perhaps the very excessive amount of support that Biden has

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Speaker 4: proved it is will w It's actually backfired in the

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Speaker 4: finding analysis an undefined.

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Speaker 1: Treata PARSI, thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: Treat as the executive vice president at the Quincy Institute

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Speaker 2: for Responsible Statecraft, I'm Ryan Graham. I'm the watching bureau

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Speaker 2: chief for The Intercept and also co host of Counterpoints.

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Speaker 2: You can watch Breaking Points every morning at YouTube, Spotify

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Speaker 2: and elsewhere you can go to actually go to Breakingpoints

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Speaker 2: dot com. We have a twenty five percent off our

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Speaker 2: premium memberships right now which enable us to do this reporting.

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Speaker 1: And I've got my book right here behind me, which.

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Speaker 2: Is the final final plug that the squad AOC in

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Speaker 2: the hope of a political revolution, which is heavily about

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Speaker 2: the way that the pro Israel lobby has shaped what

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Speaker 2: is possible within democratic party discourse when it comes to

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Speaker 2: Israel Palestine. So treat it once again, thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for joining us this morning, this is fascinating. We're

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Speaker 2: going to continue to cover this