WEBVTT - DeepSeek Just Exposed the Biggest Market Lie!

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<v Speaker 1>Is everything we've been told about the markets a flat

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<v Speaker 1>out lie. Well that's the question that deep Seek just

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<v Speaker 1>through at Wall Street, sending high flying stocks like in

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<v Speaker 1>Vidia into free fall. But more importantly, it shattered the

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<v Speaker 1>illusion of business as usual and enforced investors everywhere to

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<v Speaker 1>rethink some very important questions like what's going on under

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<v Speaker 1>the hood at these companies? Do we understand our assumptions?

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<v Speaker 1>What should real stock valuations be now that we know this,

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<v Speaker 1>what does this mean for tech stocks like in Vidia,

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<v Speaker 1>AI and the Nasdaq? And most importantly, what does this

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<v Speaker 1>new paradigm tell us about where we should be investing

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<v Speaker 1>and storing our wealth? And hint, it's not the old system.

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<v Speaker 1>Now this video is going to flip your entire understanding

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<v Speaker 1>of investing on its head. And by the end of

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<v Speaker 1>this video you're going to see why deep Seek isn't

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<v Speaker 1>just about AI, but it's something much, much bigger. Now

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<v Speaker 1>real quick, my name is Mark Moss. I've been a

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<v Speaker 1>tech focused investor since the early Internet days. I had

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<v Speaker 1>two big exits under my belt. I've got twelve years

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<v Speaker 1>in venture capital. I have a leadership role at a

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<v Speaker 1>bigcoin venture capital fund. And now I'm taking you behind

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<v Speaker 1>the scenes of the market shift that we see coming.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you're serious about not just surviving but thriving

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<v Speaker 1>in this new paradigm, let's go. All right, so we're

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<v Speaker 1>jumping right in. We're talking about deep seek, but really

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<v Speaker 1>this isn't about deep seak at all. All right, this

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<v Speaker 1>is what deep Seak just exposed in the markets, and

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<v Speaker 1>what I'm going to bring to you is again what

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<v Speaker 1>the information I use for my venture capital fund, how

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<v Speaker 1>we think about the markets. That's what I want to

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<v Speaker 1>give you. This is not about deep seek. If you

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<v Speaker 1>want the news, there's plenty of news sites out there.

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<v Speaker 1>There's plenty of people on YouTube just regurgitating the news

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<v Speaker 1>headlines and then give you all the details about that.

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<v Speaker 1>You can get it on your own. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>give you the insights that are actionable for us to use. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>but let's understand what deep seak is for a minute

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<v Speaker 1>from a high level. So first of all, it's a

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<v Speaker 1>new Chinese LLM, a large language model and AI that

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<v Speaker 1>was just released. It's basically an open source AI version

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<v Speaker 1>that just came out. All right, this is what changed

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<v Speaker 1>the paradigm. Now. It took the top spot iTunes store,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's been one of the most downloaded apps out there.

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<v Speaker 1>It got so much usage that it kind of stopped working.

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<v Speaker 1>They said there was an attack against it. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>really know. It's kind of interesting that right when the

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<v Speaker 1>United States shut down TikTok and basically blocked Chinese access

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<v Speaker 1>to that, then China just opened up a large language model,

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<v Speaker 1>which now everybody will give their most sensitive and most

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<v Speaker 1>information to and they'll have that. That's all different conversation,

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<v Speaker 1>but really what Deepseek is is yes, an AI model,

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<v Speaker 1>but what it changed, the paradigm shift and what it

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<v Speaker 1>exposed is that they were able to achieve the same

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<v Speaker 1>thing that open ai and the other llms have done

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<v Speaker 1>Gemini and Cloud et cetera. Not the same thing. They've

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<v Speaker 1>achieved better things, but at a fraction of the cost,

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<v Speaker 1>at like a tenth of the cost. And they did

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<v Speaker 1>this by making their training way cheaper. And I want

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<v Speaker 1>to get into all the details of how they do this.

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<v Speaker 1>Rather than like a large LLM where it's had you

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<v Speaker 1>have to feed it all the data, what they did

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<v Speaker 1>is they created a way that it can learn on

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<v Speaker 1>its own information. I'm not going to get into that,

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<v Speaker 1>but it was a way cheaper way, so instead of

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<v Speaker 1>taking one hundred and fifty billion to train, they got

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<v Speaker 1>it done on just a couple And then the bigger

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<v Speaker 1>one that upset the market was the amount of processing

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<v Speaker 1>compute that was needed to do this, and they found

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<v Speaker 1>that they don't need all the chips like in video

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<v Speaker 1>makes all the GPU used to do this. They were

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<v Speaker 1>able to do it on just a fraction of the chips.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what changed everything. We'll get into that more. But

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<v Speaker 1>really there was a wake up call and so this

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<v Speaker 1>exposed a lot of things in the market. A couple

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<v Speaker 1>of things. Number One, it exposed again the US thinks

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<v Speaker 1>they're cracking down trying to be more secure, but it

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<v Speaker 1>opened up major security flaws. Number Two, even as Trump

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<v Speaker 1>himself tweeted out and talked about that, it really set

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<v Speaker 1>a fire under the US to be more competitive, like, oh, shoot,

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<v Speaker 1>we thought we were winning the race. We're not winning

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<v Speaker 1>the race. There's people that may way more advanced. We

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<v Speaker 1>better get with it. And then again, the wake up

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<v Speaker 1>call was everything we thought we knew about the financial

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<v Speaker 1>markets just changed. And that's exactly what we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>focus on for this video. Again, I'm not giving you

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<v Speaker 1>the news, I'm giving you the insights to make money. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so that is what deep seek is. Now what happened,

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<v Speaker 1>So basically, as it came out in video, one of

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<v Speaker 1>the best performing stocks or maybe actually the best performing

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<v Speaker 1>stock in the market plunged six hundred billion dollars now

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<v Speaker 1>was about seventeen percent of its value. It was the

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<v Speaker 1>single largest drop in a day in its history. It

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<v Speaker 1>was a big deal. We can see in this chart

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<v Speaker 1>right here to get like an illustration. Yes, all stocks

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<v Speaker 1>go up and down. There's never been one that go

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<v Speaker 1>up in a straight line or down a straight line.

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<v Speaker 1>So they go up and down. But what we can

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<v Speaker 1>see is this big gap right here. Look at that.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is important to understand about the markets because

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<v Speaker 1>this is a Chinese market that trades in a different

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<v Speaker 1>time frame than what the US does, and so this

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<v Speaker 1>affected things overnight. But then when the market opened, it

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<v Speaker 1>created this gap where it gap downs. You don't see

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<v Speaker 1>gaps on anywhere like this. There's the big piece. We're

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<v Speaker 1>going to come back to what this means in a minute,

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<v Speaker 1>but I want you to see that visually again, biggest

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<v Speaker 1>one day loss. And really what we saw is that

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<v Speaker 1>all AI models can be developed with now limited compute resources.

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<v Speaker 1>So why in video the most? There was other stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll get into that. Why and video the most well,

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<v Speaker 1>because in Vidia makes the chips for the AI, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And so basically what the stock is, the PE ratio

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of like this forward looking ratio of what

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<v Speaker 1>they think sales and earnings and revenues will be. And

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<v Speaker 1>so as AI is projected to grow, they expected their

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<v Speaker 1>demand for their chips, their GPUs to continue to go

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<v Speaker 1>up linearly at least, if not exponentially like that. But

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<v Speaker 1>what we just found, how overnight all these assumptions are

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<v Speaker 1>wrong because now what Deepsek was able to do was

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<v Speaker 1>provide something better than what we had before with one

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<v Speaker 1>tenth of the resources. And so now everything that we thought,

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<v Speaker 1>like in Video's growth is going to be like this,

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<v Speaker 1>And we're like, well, wait a minute, no, it's not.

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<v Speaker 1>Because if Deepseak was able to do something like this,

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<v Speaker 1>that brings their growth down like this. But what if

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<v Speaker 1>what if deep Seak too, another competitor comes out and

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<v Speaker 1>finds a way to even do it for one tenth

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<v Speaker 1>of that, and now all of a sudden it goes

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<v Speaker 1>like this. And so what we're seeing is technology changing

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<v Speaker 1>so fast that it's challenging all the assumptions that we've

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<v Speaker 1>had because it moves so quickly. A small business owner,

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<v Speaker 1>are you buried in all types of work keeping you

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<v Speaker 1>And it's not just in Nvidia. This is really all

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<v Speaker 1>the tech stocks and really the AI shock that's happened.

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<v Speaker 1>And so we saw, like I said, one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty seven billion was spent for open Ai to train

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<v Speaker 1>their llms. That's how much we're spent. So then we

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<v Speaker 1>think about, okay, what does that mean for the amount

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<v Speaker 1>of capital that's going to flow into the markets, right,

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<v Speaker 1>because as an investor, we want to go, well, how

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<v Speaker 1>much capital will flow in? How much how much do

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<v Speaker 1>we think each company can capture from that will be

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<v Speaker 1>the future valuation so we can invest. Right, So we thought, well,

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<v Speaker 1>if they spend one hundred and fifty seven billion, then

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<v Speaker 1>other companies will need about that money. But now we

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<v Speaker 1>just found that they don't need that money. They need

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<v Speaker 1>about a tenth of that to provide something better. And again,

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<v Speaker 1>what if somebody else comes out next and does it

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<v Speaker 1>for a tenth of the cost as well? That caused

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<v Speaker 1>the entire Nasdaq to drop about three percent. Now, the

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<v Speaker 1>NASDAK is an index, right, so it represents sort of

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<v Speaker 1>all the tech stocks that are out there. So you

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<v Speaker 1>might go, well, you know, I mean, in VIDFL seventeen percent,

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<v Speaker 1>but the Nasdaq only fell three percent, So maybe y'all

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<v Speaker 1>make a strategy around that and don't worry. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to come back to that in a second. But basically

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<v Speaker 1>we saw the chip makers and the data centers really

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<v Speaker 1>get hit the most, because of course the chip makers.

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<v Speaker 1>We thought their demand was going to go like this,

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<v Speaker 1>and now maybe it's not. And we saw the data

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<v Speaker 1>centers expanding because we need more compute space, and now

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<v Speaker 1>maybe we don't need that as well. Right, so again,

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<v Speaker 1>if they can make this for cheaper and we need

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<v Speaker 1>less investment. But even more importantly, we also saw that

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<v Speaker 1>maybe there's not really a moat. So we understand that

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<v Speaker 1>like open Ai and Claude and Lama and Xai and

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<v Speaker 1>now Deepseek, these are all like base layer applications and

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<v Speaker 1>we're finding like narrow use cases to be built on

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<v Speaker 1>top of them. And what we typically see is if

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<v Speaker 1>you think about like a base layer like the Internet,

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<v Speaker 1>the value doesn't accrue on the base layer, the value

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<v Speaker 1>actually accrues on the narrow applications on the brands on

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<v Speaker 1>top of it. And so I still think there's tremendous

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<v Speaker 1>growth potential being built all around here. But what we

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<v Speaker 1>think about the base layers down here, there really is

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<v Speaker 1>no mode. If deep Seak can just come out for

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<v Speaker 1>a tenth of the cost and the time and all

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<v Speaker 1>these things and be better, what does that mean for

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<v Speaker 1>everything else? And again that challenges everything that we know. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>but here's the big paradigm shift that I want to

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<v Speaker 1>get through to today, and that is that equities being

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<v Speaker 1>used as a store of value. So we make money,

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<v Speaker 1>we hopefully don't spend it all, we have some leftover.

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<v Speaker 1>Where do we save that? That's our store, that's our value.

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<v Speaker 1>Where do we save that so we can put that

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<v Speaker 1>into goal We can put into bonds, real estate equities,

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<v Speaker 1>things like that, and typically we use equities for that.

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<v Speaker 1>We're storing our wealth for a long term. But what

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<v Speaker 1>we just found out, as deep Seek exposed, is that

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<v Speaker 1>is a very dangerous game. Why is that Because I'm

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<v Speaker 1>buying these companies like Nvidia, we don't really understand anything.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't understand the technology into the chip. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>understand the market dynamics of that. And even the people

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<v Speaker 1>that thought they did found out they didn't when deep

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<v Speaker 1>Seek was able to just change that overnight. And so

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<v Speaker 1>there's all these unknown disruptions if we buy these companies,

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<v Speaker 1>there's all these disruptions that could possibly come that we

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<v Speaker 1>don't know, we can't understand, we can't quantify. So back

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of the Nasdaq index, we might go, well,

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<v Speaker 1>instead of buying one company, I'll just buy the index,

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<v Speaker 1>right I'll buy the whole Nasdaq index, But what if

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<v Speaker 1>China releases something like d seek that's better. Would the

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<v Speaker 1>money flow from the nasdak over to the Chinese stock market?

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<v Speaker 1>Or what if the US This isn't really hypothetical. What

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<v Speaker 1>if what happens when I should say the US continues

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<v Speaker 1>to print more money and continue to devalue and debase

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<v Speaker 1>their currency. So you own the new index, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>denominated in the OS dollar. What happens then? Those are

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<v Speaker 1>big problems that all of a sudden has been brought

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<v Speaker 1>to the forefront of everybody with deep Seek exposed, that

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<v Speaker 1>we have to answer. So the question is where do

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<v Speaker 1>we go? And I think this is where the big

0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.800
<v Speaker 1>paradigm shift is going to go. That is that we

0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:20.920
<v Speaker 1>need a yard stick for a store value. How do

0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.400
<v Speaker 1>we measure it? Right? So, if I measure it in

0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:25.680
<v Speaker 1>US dollars, it shows me one thing. If I measure

0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:27.959
<v Speaker 1>it in Chinese you want it shows me another. If

0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:31.200
<v Speaker 1>I measured it in boulevard shows me something different. Or

0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:34.240
<v Speaker 1>if I measure it in oil or oranges or rice

0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:39.440
<v Speaker 1>or gold, and so it depends on what yardstick I'm using,

0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:42.520
<v Speaker 1>it shows me different things. How could you organize someone

0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:45.880
<v Speaker 1>to build a house if nobody had the same measuring tape,

0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:47.040
<v Speaker 1>as a matter of fact, that they didn't have a

0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:49.720
<v Speaker 1>measuring tape, they had bungee cords. How could you build

0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:51.600
<v Speaker 1>a house? How could you organize that? How can you

0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:54.360
<v Speaker 1>organize an economy in a market when everybody has different

0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.800
<v Speaker 1>measuring tapes. The supply of dollars changes every day, the

0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:00.240
<v Speaker 1>supply of oil changes every day, the supply of on

0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:03.720
<v Speaker 1>or whatever. You get that, So how do we measure

0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:06.400
<v Speaker 1>our wealth? I'm measuring in the Nasdaq and US dollars,

0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:09.280
<v Speaker 1>but the US dollars being debased, so we have a

0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:12.600
<v Speaker 1>problem now. Ludwig gun misis one of my favorite economists

0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:15.440
<v Speaker 1>from the Austrian school of economics. He said that in

0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:17.920
<v Speaker 1>the world of economics, there's no such thing as a constant.

0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:21.360
<v Speaker 1>So all throughout history commodities have been sort of money.

0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:23.960
<v Speaker 1>We needed a commodity money like gold, for example, or

0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:26.080
<v Speaker 1>oil or something like that. And they work good because

0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 1>they fit some of the money attributes. They were scarce, right,

0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:31.840
<v Speaker 1>But the problem is, as I already said, the value

0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:33.959
<v Speaker 1>or not the value, but the supply the quantity of

0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:37.120
<v Speaker 1>those commodities was changing all the time. There's no sustaining

0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:41.200
<v Speaker 1>as a consistant, but there is today, and so I

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:43.920
<v Speaker 1>believe that bitcoin is the first asset that we have

0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:46.959
<v Speaker 1>that has a constant There's twenty one million, there won't

0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:48.960
<v Speaker 1>be any more. And I believe this is the new

0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:51.959
<v Speaker 1>hurdle rate that all assets will be measured against. I've

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.200
<v Speaker 1>been talking about this for a while. If you've been

0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:56.960
<v Speaker 1>watching my videos, you surety already understand this, and that

0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.120
<v Speaker 1>the hurdle rate is the rate that we have to beat.

0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.640
<v Speaker 1>So right now, the US monetary supply is expanding between

0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:04.760
<v Speaker 1>ten to sixteen percent a year, depending on what measurement

0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.560
<v Speaker 1>you're looking at. So, for example, the Fed balance sheet

0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:11.160
<v Speaker 1>has been averaging about a sixteen percent growth year over

0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 1>year for the last four years. That's the hurdle rate.

0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:15.880
<v Speaker 1>That means I don't have to beat inflation at three

0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 1>percent to keep ahead of inflation. The real number have

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 1>to beat is sixteen percent. Now, there's not a lot

0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 1>of assets that do that. The S and P five

0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 1>hundred hasn't been doing that over the four year period,

0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.600
<v Speaker 1>neither the NASDAK has barely been keeping up, whereas bitcoin's

0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.160
<v Speaker 1>been doing about fifty to sixty percent. And I believe

0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:35.360
<v Speaker 1>that's the new hurdle rate, the reason why one it's

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.160
<v Speaker 1>beating it from return. But it's bigger than that. It's

0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.240
<v Speaker 1>what Deepseeak has showed us right here. It's that any

0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.720
<v Speaker 1>of these yardsticks can change, and any of these things

0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>are susceptible to disruption. We see with bitcoin there is

0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:50.560
<v Speaker 1>no disruption that's there. There's no way to disrupt that technology. Sure,

0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 1>you can talk about quantum computing in fifteen years from now.

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.280
<v Speaker 1>That's already a known thing. There's already fixes being in

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:59.000
<v Speaker 1>place for that. Two, it can't be changed. So like

0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.160
<v Speaker 1>all the other cryptocurrens, they have governance and they can

0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.079
<v Speaker 1>vote on things, and they can change things. Bitcoin doesn't change.

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 1>It can't be debased. You can't just print more currency

0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:09.520
<v Speaker 1>to debase it. And so I believe for all of

0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:12.800
<v Speaker 1>those reasons, what we're going to see is a massive

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:14.720
<v Speaker 1>paradigm shift. And this is what the world's already seen.

0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:16.440
<v Speaker 1>As a matter of fact, at the time of this recording,

0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:20.760
<v Speaker 1>I saw today another major sovereign central bank saying they

0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:22.520
<v Speaker 1>want to add bitcoin to the balance sheet. The world

0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 1>is seeing this right here, and there's going to be

0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 1>a massive shift. And so really the trifecta. It's not

0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:31.720
<v Speaker 1>just bitcoin. The trifecta in this new paradigm, in this

0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 1>new economy, this new money economy is AI. AI is

0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 1>the disruptive engine of growth. AI is super important. It's

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 1>going to increase efficiency, it's going to lower cost, and

0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:45.920
<v Speaker 1>it's going to create a massive amount of growth and

0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 1>abundance in AI. But that's going to push things cheaper

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 1>and cheaper and cheaper, so that disrupts the financial markets

0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 1>that we're using to invest in because we want them

0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:59.080
<v Speaker 1>to go up in value. So we use AI, but

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 1>then we use bitcoin as a key financial hedge. So

0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 1>the money that we put into here goes up and

0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:06.920
<v Speaker 1>up and up over time and holds that because it

0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 1>can't be disrupted, it can't be debased like the US

0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.800
<v Speaker 1>dollar or the yuan or the ruin. Mby then, the

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:16.160
<v Speaker 1>third part of the trifecta is energy, because the main

0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.280
<v Speaker 1>thing that both bitcoin and AI need is energy. It's

0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:23.520
<v Speaker 1>a crucial resource. We can't live without energy. I couldn't

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:25.720
<v Speaker 1>be doing this, you couldn't be watching this video without energy.

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:29.320
<v Speaker 1>And so this is the trifecta in the new paradigm.

0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:32.040
<v Speaker 1>And this is what Deepseat showed everybody. This is what

0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:34.200
<v Speaker 1>the world has seen, at least the smart people, and

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:35.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to give it to you again. This is

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:37.160
<v Speaker 1>not the news. You can go read the news on

0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:38.920
<v Speaker 1>your own. Let me know what you think about the

0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:41.520
<v Speaker 1>new paradigm and the trifecta down the comments down below.

0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.480
<v Speaker 1>As always, give me likes if you like this video.

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:46.040
<v Speaker 1>If you don't eat what something's down, that's okay. Tell

0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 1>me either way. And that's what I got. All right,

0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 1>to your success. I'm out.