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Speaker 1: Hey guys. How are you welcome into a Tuesday morning

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Speaker 1: episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all of my socials

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt, and we are back after a

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Speaker 1: winning day wearing the Patriots hat. About to go full

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Speaker 1: Homer on us here for the Daily Juice, but there's

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Speaker 1: some logic behind it, so it's not completely nuts. It

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Speaker 1: is time for a totals Tuesday. I've not done one

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Speaker 1: of these in a while. Let's spice this up a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Three games, three sports, three totals to bet

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Speaker 1: here for today on a Tuesday. In one future play

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Speaker 1: that I have made here for tonight that's going to

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Speaker 1: be the Super Bowl. I'm going to explain here in

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Speaker 1: just one second. But before we get into the games

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Speaker 1: and the picks for today, let's remind you that this

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Speaker 1: deposit to day. Okay, let's start with the future and

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Speaker 1: then we'll get into some other stuff, but first and foremost,

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Speaker 1: over forty six comes in for the Patriots. A little

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Speaker 1: bit of a sweat there when we got there, A

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Speaker 1: little bit of a sweat on treveon Henderson, over eighty

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Speaker 1: and a half rushing and receiving. When we got that,

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Speaker 1: that was the play of the day, so we cashed that.

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Speaker 1: Tracy got hurt. I think he might have hit it.

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Speaker 1: I mean he was. He was trending in the right

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Speaker 1: direction for us to hit that, and that was just

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Speaker 1: one of those like you know, it's football and like

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Speaker 1: you get kind of you get injuries. Tracy wound up

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Speaker 1: with thirty six yards rushing and negative three yards receiving,

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Speaker 1: so he didn't come close. But the injury he did

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Speaker 1: hurt him, so maybe he would have gotten there confused

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Speaker 1: running the ball pretty effectively there for a little bit.

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Speaker 1: So we didn't get that right. But okay, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about this. The Patriots go into the bye with an

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Speaker 1: eleven win start, eleven wins out of thirteen games. They

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Speaker 1: have won ten consecutive games. They are pounding bad teams,

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Speaker 1: I will give you that, and that is why the

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Speaker 1: market has not responded to the Patriots in giving them

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Speaker 1: the respect in the market that they deserve. The Patriots

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Speaker 1: are eleven to one to win the Super Bowl. Think

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Speaker 1: about this for a second. They're eleven and two. They

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Speaker 1: lost in Week one, they lost in Week three, and

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Speaker 1: they have not lost since. They go to the buy

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Speaker 1: this week they're off. Do they look tired? Do they

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Speaker 1: look like a team that needs to stop playing football?

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Speaker 1: And in fact, I'm mad that they are having to

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Speaker 1: stop play football, to be quite honest. But they get

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Speaker 1: two weeks to prepare for the Buffalo Bills. Do you

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Speaker 1: now know what that game will be? That game is

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Speaker 1: going to be what's called a hat and T shirt

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Speaker 1: game in New England. That game is for the division.

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Speaker 1: It's for the division. It is insane to say that

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Speaker 1: that the Patriots are going to be playing this early

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Speaker 1: for the division against a really good team in the

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Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. Okay, I'm not going to I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: like this, but it is crazy. The Patriots were not

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Speaker 1: thought to be the best team in the AFC, they

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Speaker 1: weren't thought to be even real contenders in the AFC.

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Speaker 1: But they are. And Drake May today this morning wakes

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Speaker 1: up as the odds on favorite to win the MVP.

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Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford is plus one thirty and Drake May is

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty five or so, depending on the book.

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Speaker 1: But he's got a pretty big lead, about a fifty

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Speaker 1: cent lead on Matthew Stafford for the Why are the

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Speaker 1: Patriots eleven to one to win the Super Bowl, Like,

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Speaker 1: just serious question. That number doesn't make sense. Eleven to

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Speaker 1: one doesn't make sense. They get the one seed, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna win their division, and they don't have to play

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs the Broncos do. The Broncos must play the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: the Patriots don't. The Patriots play the Bills. If they

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Speaker 1: win that game, they win the division. They play the

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Speaker 1: Ravens the next week on the road, which will be

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Speaker 1: a tough game and maybe they might lose that game.

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Speaker 1: It's a mite. But then they play against the Dolphins,

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Speaker 1: they play against the Jets. The Patriots haven't lost a

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Speaker 1: division game yet. They're three and oh in the division.

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Speaker 1: Though probably if they beat the Bills, they're gonna run

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Speaker 1: the table in the division. They're gonna go six to

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Speaker 1: oh in the division. So what's their record? Like, seriously,

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Speaker 1: what do you think the record's gonna wind up being.

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Speaker 1: It looks like it's gonna be a fourteen to three

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Speaker 1: season for the Patriots, even still the market doesn't believe it.

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Speaker 1: But at eleven to one, how do we not jump

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Speaker 1: in on this? This is just a numbers play. Like again,

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Speaker 1: they go to the by they have two weeks to

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Speaker 1: prepare for a hat and t shirt game. Well, the

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Speaker 1: Bills have to go and play and find it's a

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Speaker 1: game that they're going to win. But they're still playing football.

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Speaker 1: They're still out there getting bumped and bruised, and they're

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Speaker 1: still having to play. And then they go to Foxborough

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Speaker 1: to play the Patriots while they're saying at home preparing

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Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen, the Patriots didn't

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Speaker 1: just beat the Giants last night. They beat up the

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Speaker 1: Giants last night. I haven't seen that level of smacked

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Speaker 1: down from a Patriot defense since probably two thousand and one.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is all coming back, This is all like,

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Speaker 1: this is all coming back. Call me a Homer all

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Speaker 1: you want, Okay, But from a gambling perspective, that number

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Speaker 1: is not right. Okay, that number just don't I don't

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Speaker 1: understand how you go. The Patriots should be eleven to

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Speaker 1: one dogs or eleven to one to win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: behind a lot of teams in the you know, a

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Speaker 1: lot of teams in the NFC, Okay, And I'm just

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Speaker 1: you know, looking at the odds, Rams, Seahawks, Packers, Eagles,

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Speaker 1: those teams are all ahead of the Patriots. So nine

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Speaker 1: to one, nine one, eight fifty four, sixty four to

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Speaker 1: fifty Rams, Seahawks, Packers, Eagles, those four teams are all ahead.

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Speaker 1: Patriots are number one option for the AFC, and frankly,

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Speaker 1: the Broncos being twelve to one is equally disrespectful. To

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Speaker 1: be quite honest, I just think the Patriots have a

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Speaker 1: better chance to get in the one seed than the

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Speaker 1: Broncos do. And I don't think bo Knicks can win

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Speaker 1: a playoff game on the road. I'm just not sold

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Speaker 1: on bo Nicks on the road in the postseason. So

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Speaker 1: at home, if the Broncos are the one seed, Broncos

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Speaker 1: will be a very difficult out for anybody. Patriots, I

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Speaker 1: doubt will win the game. We'll win at win at Denver.

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Speaker 1: So whoever wins the one seed, it's probably Patriots and

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Speaker 1: the Broncos. Whichever is the team at home, that's the

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Speaker 1: team that's going to win. But I'm taking it eleven

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Speaker 1: to one. You can come back take the Broncos twelve

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Speaker 1: to one. I don't hate it at all. But if

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Speaker 1: the Pats get to the Super Bowl, we're hedging, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're clearly betting against them, and we're gonna hedge, but

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Speaker 1: we'll guarantee profit and we'll have a really easy Super Bowl. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's time to start building the portfolios and starting to

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Speaker 1: look at where these teams are. So you know, you

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Speaker 1: want to take the Broncos twelve to one. Not bad.

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Speaker 1: We might even do that later in the week. Okay,

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Speaker 1: but tonight, Patriots eleven to one. One unit take the

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Speaker 1: Patriots to win the Super Bowl here at eleven to one. Now,

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Speaker 1: You got a game on Peacock late night tonight out

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Speaker 1: in the western part of the country where the Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: City Thunder will take on the Golden State Warriors. Now,

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Speaker 1: Oksee has just been mauling people, like just straight up

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Speaker 1: mauling people. They're twenty and one on the year. Okay,

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Speaker 1: like just bonkers. They are ten and one on the road.

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Speaker 1: They are ten and zero at home. The Warriors are

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Speaker 1: eleven and ten. No Steph Curry for this. You got

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a banged up Jimmy Butler, but

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Speaker 1: it looks like he's probably going to play. Warriors have

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Speaker 1: been feisty at home though. They're seven and two at

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Speaker 1: home this season. Now again, Thunder ten and one on

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Speaker 1: the road. But let's look at the total being two

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Speaker 1: to twenty one and a half OKA, see, which is

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Speaker 1: kind of wild. They're eleven and ten to the over

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Speaker 1: on the year, that's not amazing. They're six and five

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Speaker 1: to the over on the road, four five and four

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Speaker 1: to the under for a golden state. In fact, their

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Speaker 1: last two games against New Orleans and Houston both went

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Speaker 1: under by twenty eight and a half and twenty and

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Speaker 1: a half. Utah at home went over by by eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half. Against Portland it went over by thirteen

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Speaker 1: and a half. And because of those two games going

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Speaker 1: so far under, I think we're getting a depressed number

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Speaker 1: here of two twenty one and a half. If you

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Speaker 1: look at the totals for Oklahoma City, normally they're in

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Speaker 1: the two thirties, two thirty three and a half to

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Speaker 1: twenty three. I guess for that game two twenty six,

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Speaker 1: two thirty four and a half, two thirty four and

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Speaker 1: a half, two thirty two and a half. It is.

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Speaker 1: Typically we're talking about numbers in the lower two thirties.

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Speaker 1: This number is in the lower and it really load's

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Speaker 1: two twenty one and a half. You have to go

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Speaker 1: all the way back to the Clippers on the fourth

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Speaker 1: of November where they're on the road at LA and

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Speaker 1: it was two nineteen and a half. To find a

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Speaker 1: total lower than this one at two twenty one and

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Speaker 1: a half. I just think from a Warrior perspective, they

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Speaker 1: play they play better at home, they shoot better at home,

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Speaker 1: and I think you can look at the over here

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Speaker 1: in this game. For OKC they're averaging one twenty two

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Speaker 1: and a half points per game. That's third best. Golden

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Speaker 1: State is averaging one fourteen and a half points. That's

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Speaker 1: you know, towards the end. But you know, defensively, Okaysee

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Speaker 1: has been great one o six and a half, one

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Speaker 1: of six point seven, that's number one. Defensively, Warriors been

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Speaker 1: one thirteen point six, that's seventh best. But I think

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Speaker 1: we see this number, it gets been a little bit

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Speaker 1: too low for these teams. Without Jimmy Butler being full strength,

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Speaker 1: without Steph Curry out there at full strength, a couple

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Speaker 1: of nick bumps and bruises for Okay See. Nothing crazy.

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Speaker 1: Hartenstein's questionable, Alice Caruso is questionable, but Curry is out,

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Speaker 1: Horford is out for the Warriors, and Jimmy Butler is

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Speaker 1: a touch banged up, but I think we get pace,

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Speaker 1: I think we get offense. I think the Warriors fight

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Speaker 1: and get scrappy. Here tots eleven and a half. You

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Speaker 1: can bet the dog if you want. Instead, I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna go ahead and take the over two twenty one

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Speaker 1: and a half for the Warriors and the thunder here

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Speaker 1: tonight in the NBA to the NHL. We go tonight

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Speaker 1: with Vancouver on the road up against Colorado. This you

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Speaker 1: can do a first period over if you want. In

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Speaker 1: this game. Vancouver is eight and two over the last

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Speaker 1: ten games to a first period over. Colorado is six

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Speaker 1: and four, But they're fifty six percent, and I'm just

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Speaker 1: a little bit hesitant to jump in on the first

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Speaker 1: period over for this. You can bet a gift goal

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Speaker 1: in the first ten minutes. Colorado seventy two percent of

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Speaker 1: the time in their games are getting a goal in

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Speaker 1: the first ten minutes. Eight of the last ten games

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Speaker 1: goal in the first ten minutes. Vancouver seven and three

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Speaker 1: over their last ten or last ten for a goal

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Speaker 1: in the first ten minutes, But it's like one sixty

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Speaker 1: and one fifty for gift in first period overs. It's

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Speaker 1: just not really one I want to get into it's

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Speaker 1: really you know, I'm making a bunch of players tonight

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Speaker 1: and I don't like the juice. It's too heavy on

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Speaker 1: the juice for me at the moment to come in

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Speaker 1: and jump on that. So instead I want to take

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Speaker 1: a look at Vancouver for the game. The Canucks on

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Speaker 1: the road are nine to five and one to the over.

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Speaker 1: At home this year, Colorado has been sort of a

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Speaker 1: wishy washy back and forth. They're five to five and

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Speaker 1: one to the over at home, kind of flat over

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Speaker 1: the last ten games. At home, Colorado is five and five.

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Speaker 1: They're just sort of the same type of thing. But

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Speaker 1: on the road, Vancouver is seven and three to the over.

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Speaker 1: We've seen early goals, we've seen you goals giving up,

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Speaker 1: and then we look at the goaltenders coming up here

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Speaker 1: for tonight and I like what we're seeing out of

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Speaker 1: a goaltending perspective. I think we you know, in terms

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Speaker 1: of who we want in net. Lankan in eh the

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Speaker 1: he was in net in a meeting between these teams,

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Speaker 1: two teams about three weeks ago, so was Mackenzie Blackwood,

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Speaker 1: and we wound up seeing a bunch of goals in

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Speaker 1: that game. It was a five to four game here

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Speaker 1: between these teams, it was five to four. It was

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Speaker 1: a yeah, five to four win for Colorado on the road.

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Speaker 1: In that game. We see a lot of offense here.

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Speaker 1: For the Vancouver Canucks, they play wide open. I think

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Speaker 1: we'll play wide open as well. Again, if you don't

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Speaker 1: want to the full game, you can come in and bet,

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Speaker 1: you know, the first period over if you want. It

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Speaker 1: was two to one Colorado after one in that meeting.

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Speaker 1: But the Avalanche at home have been absolutely awesome. They're

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Speaker 1: eighteen to one and six, by the way, overall, only

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Speaker 1: one loss in regulation for Colorado so far this year.

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Speaker 1: But they're ten zho and two at home. They haven't

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Speaker 1: lost a game at home yet. Vancouver is seven to

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Speaker 1: six and two, but you know, seven to two, three

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Speaker 1: to two, shutout six nothing in the last three games.

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Speaker 1: Two and one to the over. I guess it'll be

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Speaker 1: six and a half, would be one and two to

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Speaker 1: the under. But they're scoring here a lot. In the

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Speaker 1: last two home games, they've scored thirteen goals for Colorado.

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Speaker 1: That's good offense here. I don't love Lankening with a

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Speaker 1: three point five goals against average, and Lankning, as I

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Speaker 1: said in the game, you know, on the road he

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Speaker 1: has a two point eighty six goals against average. He's

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Speaker 1: worse at home, but against the Avalanche back on the

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Speaker 1: ninth of November, he gave up five goals and a

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Speaker 1: five to four overtime loss. Let's go ahead and bet

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Speaker 1: the over here for Colorado in Vancouver over six and

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Speaker 1: a half at minus one ten and one college basketball

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Speaker 1: game to talk about. It's Duke in Florida. This is

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Speaker 1: gonna be a fun game at Cameron Indoor Stadium here.

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Speaker 1: KEMPOM has this as a win for Duke, an eight

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Speaker 1: point win for Duke. I don't really like to get

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Speaker 1: involved the number seven and a half. I don't really

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Speaker 1: want to get involved with the side, but I think

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Speaker 1: the total is a better play to look at this.

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Speaker 1: So it's one forties, it's one fifty six at kempom,

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Speaker 1: which is pretty much right where we're looking at this.

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Speaker 1: But we're talking about a very good offense for Duke,

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Speaker 1: top five offense for Duke here in this one. You've

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Speaker 1: got a Duke defense. It's been pretty good. Florida's defense

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Speaker 1: has been okay. But I think we'll see some tempo

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Speaker 1: here between these teams going back and forth I think

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Speaker 1: three point shooting will come into play here. Florida has

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Speaker 1: not been great at shooting the rock this year. I

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Speaker 1: think they got to get going here offensively, three and

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Speaker 1: twentieth in three point shooting. The guard play simply has

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Speaker 1: not been there for Florida. But they have one of

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Speaker 1: the best front courts in the entire country, and they

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Speaker 1: rebound the basketball really well. They hit their two point shots,

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Speaker 1: they get to their free throw line. They're okay, middle

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Speaker 1: of the pack from a free throw line perspective. But

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Speaker 1: for Duke, they shoot their third best and two point

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Speaker 1: shooting their top seventy and three point shooting. Their offensive

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Speaker 1: adjusted efficiency is fifth best in the country, effective field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage is thirteenth best in the country. And really

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Speaker 1: turnover wise, Florida doesn't turn you over at all. I

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Speaker 1: think Duke will have an opportunity to score a bunch.

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Speaker 1: I like the over in this game. I think we

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Speaker 1: get paced, I think we get offense. I think we

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Speaker 1: get shooting between these two teams. I'm gonna come in

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Speaker 1: here and play the over for Florida and Duke over

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Speaker 1: one fifty six and half, which is pretty much where

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Speaker 1: m Palm has this all right, So four plays for

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Speaker 1: US here on Tuesday. Totals Tuesday of Warriors, Thunder over

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Speaker 1: to twenty one and a half, Vancouver, Colorado over six

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Speaker 1: and a half, and Florida and Duke over one fifty

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Speaker 1: six and a half. In the future, play for the

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Speaker 1: Patriots to win the Super Bowl at eleven to one

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Speaker 1: for one unit. My name is Matt Parolt. You guys

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Speaker 1: can follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk

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Speaker 1: Matt every morning where every you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice