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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of this information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? I've got five dollars?

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Speaker 1: This is a ratable lep hob of the tackle.

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Speaker 2: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable,

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Speaker 2: humans need fantasy to be human?

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Speaker 1: My goodness, I don't misspeak, prone, the best, relentless, refusing

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Speaker 1: to give up. All right, hit that horn?

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Speaker 2: Very what's up, everybody? Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybind of the Action Network, and

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Speaker 2: as always, I'm joined by one of the top rankers

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Speaker 2: in the game, top five over the last three years,

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Speaker 2: when the most accurate last season, Sean Kerner, the odds maker.

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Speaker 1: Sean.

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Speaker 2: What's going on?

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Speaker 1: What's up? Yeah? Just you know, Jock, We only trying

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Speaker 1: and enjoy the summer while also getting ready for NFL,

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Speaker 1: which is right around the corner. How about you.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's it's been a lot of stuff going on,

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Speaker 2: but NFL has taken you know, prime focus now. You know,

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Speaker 2: going through my season long rankings every day and those

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Speaker 2: are up at Fantasy Labs dot com as are yours.

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Speaker 2: But excited for camps to actually start, you know, we'll

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Speaker 2: finally start getting some some more injury news. We see

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Speaker 2: who's on the PUP, who's on the NFI, things like that.

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Speaker 2: But we're gonna talk about all that. We're gonna talk

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Speaker 2: about running backs specifically this episode though the RB ones,

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Speaker 2: the top twelve running backs, will go through. Each one

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Speaker 2: talk about their floor, their ceiling, whether we like them,

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Speaker 2: whether we don't. So we will start it off with

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Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey. Of course he's the RB one. I guess

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Speaker 2: the question is how far ahead do you have McCaffrey

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Speaker 2: versus everybody else.

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Speaker 1: Well, there's no doubt that he should be the number

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Speaker 1: one pick in pretty much every draft. This is unlike

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Speaker 1: other years where maybe you can kind of debate who

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Speaker 1: should go number one. I think it's pretty clear it's him.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he had one hundred plus more Fantasy points

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Speaker 1: than the next running back last year. That's just a

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Speaker 1: massive edge. He has, you know, the same conditions as

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Speaker 1: last year. So really no reason to knock him off.

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Speaker 1: Now we always talk about this. It's not a guarantee

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Speaker 1: that he's going to be the RB one, but he's

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Speaker 1: clearly the odds on favorite. You can't really have anybody

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Speaker 1: else more likely to finish as the RB one, so

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Speaker 1: I have him tier one all by himself. Let me see,

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Speaker 1: I have it about forty points ahead of Breis Hall

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Speaker 1: and half PPR, so not expecting as big of a

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Speaker 1: gap last year. But he is clearly my RB one

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Speaker 1: overall and number one you know ranked player overall, So

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Speaker 1: pretty straightforward. But you know, he is twenty eight. The

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Speaker 1: only minor thing I could say is he's twenty eight,

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Speaker 1: so he might be entering the decline phase phase of

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Speaker 1: his career, but doesn't really matter. He still has the

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Speaker 1: bankable production at this point where any slight drop in

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Speaker 1: efficiency probably won't matter. So yeah, he's clearly the RB

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Speaker 1: one overall for me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, given his age, you know, running backs tend to

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Speaker 2: peak around twenty six twenty seven and it's downhill from there.

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Speaker 2: He is entering his age twenty eight season. If you're

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Speaker 2: in a dynasty league, let's say you Owen McCaffrey and

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Speaker 2: somebody just trying to throw like everything at you to

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Speaker 2: try to get you to budge, like what age, what

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Speaker 2: would you sell? Would there be a package that you

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Speaker 2: would sell him for entering his twenty age twenty eight season,

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Speaker 2: or when do you think you would be comfortable selling him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what a question. I guess it really depends what

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Speaker 1: situation you're in. I wish I was in that situation

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Speaker 1: my Dynasty League. My my weakness is my running back.

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Speaker 1: So I'd love to have him. But if you're a

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Speaker 1: win now mode, you got to keep him. He probably

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Speaker 1: has two maybe three years of just elite, you know,

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Speaker 1: top five production if he stays in you know, this offense.

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Speaker 1: So I wouldn't try to get rid of him. But

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Speaker 1: like you said, like I wouldn't mind swapping him out

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Speaker 1: for a younger back, like you know, bres Hall. You'd

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Speaker 1: need way more than just Breeze Hall. But you know,

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Speaker 1: someone like Brens Hall probably has five to seven four

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Speaker 1: years of elite production down the pike. So yeah, when

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Speaker 1: it comes to running backs, you know, he is sort

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Speaker 1: of in that down phase of his career and it

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Speaker 1: could happen fast, and it could happen due to injuries.

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Speaker 1: It's not always on field production. So yeah, if you're

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Speaker 1: in Dynasty formats and you're struggling and you have CMC,

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Speaker 1: I would certainly consider packaging him up and getting you

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Speaker 1: know a couple of younger players for sure.

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Speaker 2: And is this do you think he has any more

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Speaker 2: risk than usual because he's coming off you know, like

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Speaker 2: two straight three hundred you know, fifty plus touch seasons

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Speaker 2: when you count the playoffs or is that are you

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Speaker 2: just projecting him for the normal like you know two

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Speaker 2: and a half games missed.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, probably, you know, I'm projecting the normal two two

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Speaker 1: and a half games missed. But remember there was a

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Speaker 1: brief stretch there in like twenty twenty twenty twenty one

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Speaker 1: where we kind of labeled him as an injury risk.

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Speaker 1: That's just kind of how it goes with the position, right,

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Speaker 1: So the past couple of seasons he's sayed healthy, so

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Speaker 1: you know, you can't always bank on you know, a

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Speaker 1: player just missing zero one games, which he has you know,

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Speaker 1: the past couple of seasons. So that's unfortunately, every running

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Speaker 1: back is prone to injury. CMC himself is not excluded

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Speaker 1: from that. So yeah, he's benefited from you know, being

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Speaker 1: hyper efficient and staying relatively healthy the past couple of seasons.

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Speaker 1: But again, when you have the number one pick, there's

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Speaker 1: not much you can do because everybody has that injury downside,

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Speaker 1: so you just got to take them. But that just

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Speaker 1: goes to show why he's just because you're taking him

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Speaker 1: first over doesn't mean he's you know, going to finish

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Speaker 1: number one overall. He still has the potential risk of

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Speaker 1: getting injured like everybody else, So you can't really do

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Speaker 1: anything to doc Ham to where he's you know, going

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Speaker 1: number two or anything like that. But as with everybody else,

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Speaker 1: he has potential injury risks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I have about sixty sixty five, sixty and sixty

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Speaker 2: five points ahead of Robinson and Hall at RB chry So, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's really no contest and that's a half PPR, so

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Speaker 2: really no contest between him and any other running back.

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Speaker 2: But the number two running back is Breys Hall. I've

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Speaker 2: seen Bejon. I think they've kind of flip flopped. But

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Speaker 2: we'll talk Brice. Do you think bres Hall has another

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Speaker 2: gear to hit this year because now he'll be, you know,

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Speaker 2: another year removed from that ACL injury. He came on

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Speaker 2: really strong down the stretch last season. What do you

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Speaker 2: think of Briste this year?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean it was this time last year I

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Speaker 1: was saying, you know, he could be limited somewhat in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three due to his ACL recovery, and you

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Speaker 1: know that was mostly true. He did start off, you know,

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Speaker 1: they signed Dalvin Cook start off kind of slow in

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Speaker 1: terms of just you know, overall touches, but he was

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Speaker 1: just too good. He played all seventeen games, so he

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Speaker 1: finishes the RB four. So having said that, yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think he has the potential to be even better this year.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna benefit from having Aaron Rodgers potentially playing more

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Speaker 1: than one drive this year, so that's going to set

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Speaker 1: him up for more touchdown chances, positive game scripts, so

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Speaker 1: all that fantasy goodness. Still going to be a threat

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Speaker 1: out of the backfield as a pass catcher. Plus the

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Speaker 1: offensive line should be much better. You know. They brought

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Speaker 1: in Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses, so lots of love.

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Speaker 1: That's why he's my RB two. This is where you

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Speaker 1: can actually open up the debate who should go next

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Speaker 1: between him and Jon Robinson. I have them in a

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Speaker 1: mini tier, but as of now, you know, I have

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Speaker 1: Hull really ahead of Jon, but it's close. But again,

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Speaker 1: the sky's limit for Hall entering year three, so I

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Speaker 1: guess the question is when do you take him right?

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of top end wide receivers that

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Speaker 1: go off the board, so I've been kind of waiting

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Speaker 1: until the tier one of wide receivers go off the board,

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Speaker 1: so it's about five to six receivers before attacking running

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Speaker 1: back again. So I think really the sweet spot for

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Speaker 1: Hall and Bijon would be like picks six through ten

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Speaker 1: and typical half PPR leagues. But you know, I'm usually

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Speaker 1: trying to get a top receiver once CMC is off

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Speaker 1: the board. But again, Bristol has so much upside that

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Speaker 1: I love getting him even at RB two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think. I think in drafts, you know Lamb Hill,

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Speaker 2: Chase Jefferson, and Aman Rossaint Brown, you can make a

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Speaker 2: case for all five of those guys ahead of the

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Speaker 2: next running back and even I mean then it starts

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Speaker 2: to get you know, even out when you start getting

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Speaker 2: a Pooka and AJ Brown and those guys. But you know,

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Speaker 2: Breithe Hall and Bjean Robinson I think are the clear

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Speaker 2: two threes here. You know Breesehall probably, you know, does

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Speaker 2: it need to catch as many passes as he did

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Speaker 2: last year just because you know there were some games

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Speaker 2: where the Jets were just way behind and he was

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Speaker 2: catching you know, eight nine ten balls per game, but

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Speaker 2: you know he showed he what do you get like

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Speaker 2: thirty something carries in the last game thirty seven something.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what the hell is going on there,

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Speaker 1: just a meetingless game against the Patriots. Had thirty seven

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Speaker 1: carries to get almost forty touches in the meetingless game.

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Speaker 1: In the season, they were, you know, going to try

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Speaker 1: to limit him. So it just goes to show how

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Speaker 1: healthy it was. Last year they took the training wheels off.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, that was kind of bizarre. See get forty

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Speaker 1: touches in week eighteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I think that. I mean, maybe there

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Speaker 2: was some type of incentive that we didn't know about,

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Speaker 2: you know, because he finished six yards short of a

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Speaker 2: thousand rushing yards. He had one hundred and seventy eight

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Speaker 2: in eight in Week eighteen, so maybe he was going

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Speaker 2: for that thousand, and he he was short by six,

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Speaker 2: which sucks if that's really what was going on.

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Speaker 1: If I remember, I think he had to clear my

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Speaker 1: season long rushing prop for him, like nine hundred yards

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Speaker 1: or something like that, so I think he had incentive

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Speaker 1: to beat that. But again, I just had real I

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Speaker 1: had the four running back rushing yard unders I had

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Speaker 1: last year. They all played seventeen games, which is pretty

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Speaker 1: crazy to think about, and they all kind of barely

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Speaker 1: cleared it. So I got a bit unlucky there. But

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Speaker 1: I do remember needing Hull like, Okay, if he just

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Speaker 1: gets like fifty rushing yards this game, I can still

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Speaker 1: hit it. Nope, sure enough, almost two hundred yards that game,

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 2: B John Robinson, Now he's a guy who we know.

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Speaker 2: The town is there, you know it's he's a very

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Speaker 2: high top ten draft pick. Last year was disappointing. The

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Speaker 2: usage at times was head scratching under Arthur Smith. Now

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Speaker 2: you're going to a new coach staff for the Atlanta

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Speaker 2: Falcons and you have Zach Robinson, who's you know, worked

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Speaker 2: on the staff with Sean McVay. He's coming in as

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Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator. So do you think we kind of like,

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Speaker 2: what do you what do you see for for Bjon

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Speaker 2: Robinson's usage this year as compared to last year? Like,

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Speaker 2: how do you think it's gonna difference?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I'm assuming it's going to be better.

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Speaker 1: And it's funny how we consider him. You know, I

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Speaker 1: would say slight disappointment last year at RB nine, but

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Speaker 1: you know, being like a third or fourth running back

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Speaker 1: off the board, you're over under season long finished would

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Speaker 1: probably be right around RB nine, so I think he

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Speaker 1: was He was about in line with expectations. The main

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Speaker 1: disappointment really came from just his usage. He only saw

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Speaker 1: twenty plus touches in two games last year. We had

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Speaker 1: brought brought it up like Tyler Ljier could still you know,

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Speaker 1: factor in and be more of a one B type

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Speaker 1: back and eat in his usage, and that's that's pretty

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Speaker 1: much what happened. So yeah, I think the new coaching

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Speaker 1: staff knows that they have in Bijon Robinson. Not to

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Speaker 1: say Tyler Algier isn't a great backup. He is, but

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to use more one running back

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Speaker 1: sets really use Jon in the past game Now they

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Speaker 1: have a quarterback and Kirk Cousins that can really open it,

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Speaker 1: open things up where you know they won't be able

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Speaker 1: to stack the box, could see more running things for Jon.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, he's coming off at disappointing season, but he

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Speaker 1: flashed the men's upside. We all know he has. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's a generational talent, so I have him right right

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Speaker 1: here at RB three. I think he's gonna bounce back

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Speaker 1: with a really good season. And I still think Tyler

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Speaker 1: Alger is a good backup to stash because if Bjon

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Speaker 1: were to miss time, he could you know, post high

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Speaker 1: end RB two type numbers. But I think the new

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Speaker 1: coaching staff knows what they have in Bjon Robinson and

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Speaker 1: will feature him a lot more than last year. So

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Speaker 1: I think, yeah, this year he certainly warrants you know,

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Speaker 1: top three tech.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think you know it's interesting because you know

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Speaker 2: all three like these three guys McCaffrey, I mean, what

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Speaker 2: do you what do you thinking with Elijah Mitchell? I'm

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Speaker 2: thinking of handcuffs here because you know that's probably one

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Speaker 2: of these guys are kind of locked in his first

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Speaker 2: round picks. But you know, if people investing first round

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Speaker 2: picks and these guys in traditional redraft leagues, you know

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Speaker 2: they're they might want to look at a handcuffs. So

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Speaker 2: is Mitchell still the handcuff for McCaffrey. We know it's

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Speaker 2: out gear for Robinson, he's the most expensive, and then

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Speaker 2: Braylen Allen, rookie for the Jets, will be behind Breeze.

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Speaker 2: I kind of like Braylen Allen just overall in terms

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Speaker 2: of his value. But what do you think in terms

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Speaker 2: of those three handcuffs? Do you have any leans in

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Speaker 2: terms of which one you like the most, because you

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Speaker 2: know that that can kind of factor in for some people.

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Speaker 2: You can get a handcuff that's kind of free, which

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Speaker 2: I think Allen in non basketball leagues, especially like his

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Speaker 2: adp is is still way down there. But who do

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Speaker 2: you like in terms of handcuffs for these three guys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's a great question. And you know Elgier,

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Speaker 1: he's what is he like? Round fifty one, So all

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Speaker 1: three of these backups are sort of in the fifties.

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Speaker 1: So I still think Algiers the top one because we

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Speaker 1: know he's gonna step up at Bejeon Miss's time and

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Speaker 1: and could still you know, factor in even when Bijon

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Speaker 1: is healthy. Yeah, I agree. I think Elijah Mitchell was

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Speaker 1: probably still the backup. You know, Isaac Grendo is a

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Speaker 1: talented back. They draft him in the fourth round, but

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Speaker 1: I could see Kyle Shanahan just sticking with his vet

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Speaker 1: in a situation like that and just let Mitchell be

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Speaker 1: more of the workhorse back where Grendo will certainly factor in.

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Speaker 1: So I would still say Elijah Mitchell is fairly safe

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Speaker 1: as McCaffrey's handcuff, probably not as much as years passed,

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Speaker 1: but I still like him. There the thing with Braylan Allen, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think he's probably the backup now. But you know

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Speaker 1: they they also drafted, you know, Isaiah Davis. We liked

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Speaker 1: Israel Abanacanada last year. I think he's still talented like

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Speaker 1: he could he could you know, factor in. So it's

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Speaker 1: it's all less clear what's going to happen if b

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Speaker 1: Reese Hall word of miss time and anytime there's like

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Speaker 1: some confusion or doubt of who would be the one

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Speaker 1: to step up, they get quite a big of a

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Speaker 1: hit in my running back upside chart which I'm coming

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Speaker 1: out with this week. So that's the only knock on

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Speaker 1: Breylan Allen. So yeah, I still rank them Algier, Mitchell

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Speaker 1: and Alan right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the ranking. Actually, I have bray

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Speaker 2: On Allen ahead of Elijah Mitchell just because number one

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Speaker 2: McCaffrey when healthy plays eighty five two of the snaps.

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Speaker 2: So you're looking at you know, five to seven touches

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Speaker 2: per game max for for Elijah Mitchell probably, and but

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Speaker 2: Alan I'm hearing a lot. I'm hearing a lot of

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Speaker 2: positive buzz out of camp about him as he's the

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Speaker 2: guy that they're kind of looking to to be that

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Speaker 2: number two, so you know, for value purposes and just

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Speaker 2: you know, it's kind of a flyer, you know, once

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Speaker 2: you get in that range, Like I don't want Algiers

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Speaker 2: actually going inside the top fifties. Usually around like the

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Speaker 2: the low forties. I don't want to pay that much,

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Speaker 2: especially when you know, al year, we don't know exactly

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Speaker 2: what his work was going to be with the new

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Speaker 2: coaching staff. Are they going to just kind of put

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Speaker 2: him on the shelf and go, you know, bijon you

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Speaker 2: know eighty five ninety percent of the snaps Breis Hall.

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Speaker 2: I think because he had the injury and whatnot, I

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Speaker 2: do think they're still gonna like they wanted Dalvin Cook

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Speaker 2: to be in that role last year. I still think

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Speaker 2: they'll be of some touches behind Breese Hall. So I'm

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Speaker 2: Allen is kind of my a sweeper that I'm watching,

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Speaker 2: and I've been getting a lot of in Bestball because

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Speaker 2: I think he's a guy who I could see his

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Speaker 2: ADP climb throughout these next stuff four or five weeks

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Speaker 2: of camp.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. He's probably the culture of Elijah Mitchell where

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Speaker 1: when you know Breis Hall is healthy it's it's hard

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Speaker 1: to really envision him offering too much value. So that's

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Speaker 1: really my only knock on him. But yeah, if he

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Speaker 1: ends up, you know, being the clear number two, he'll

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Speaker 1: move way at my RB upside rankings.

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Speaker 2: Percentile speed score. So I would love to see if

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Speaker 2: if Rese ever went down. I'm interested to see how

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Speaker 2: that would shake out. But I think I think Allen

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Speaker 2: might get you know, fifteen to twenty touches. But speaking

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Speaker 2: of you know guys handcuffs, Jonathan Taylor, I don't know

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Speaker 2: if he has one right now, but he's gonna get

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Speaker 2: a ton of work. And you know, it's kind of

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Speaker 2: been a quiet offseason for Taylor. You know, last year

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Speaker 2: he had all the drama. This year, you know, he's

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Speaker 2: locked in at this RB four spot in ADP, but

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Speaker 2: no one's really talking about him too much. But I

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Speaker 2: think he has massive upside. I mean, he's a he's

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Speaker 2: sorely one on the short list of guys who can

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Speaker 2: finish you know, RB one overall, and he's another one

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Speaker 2: of these guys that if you're looking for a guy

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Speaker 2: to play as many snaps as McCaffrey just because of

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Speaker 2: what they have behind Taylor, I mean Evan Hole and

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Speaker 2: I guess they still got goodsin and sermon, but nothing

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Speaker 2: really much to speak of. So what do you think

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Speaker 2: of Tailor this year? And do you think he you know,

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Speaker 2: is does he have you know, is he kind of

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Speaker 2: like that last guy at running back that really has

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Speaker 2: that McCaffrey type upside, because then you've got Jamar Jamiir Gibbs,

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Speaker 2: who I guess he would have it, but he's kind

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Speaker 2: of split and work with with Montgomery. So you know,

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Speaker 2: what do you think of what do you think of Tailor?

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Speaker 2: And how much do you get in of him in

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Speaker 2: drafts this year?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, I think he does have that upside. I

351
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Speaker 1: mean he before Christian McCaffrey took over, as you know,

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Speaker 1: the RB one, he was considered the best running back

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Speaker 1: in the league in fantasy, so he does have that ceiling.

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Speaker 1: You know, He's coming off a disappointing season, There's no

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Speaker 1: doubt about that, due to injuries and his contract dispute,

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Speaker 1: which could have played into the injuries. Who knows, but

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Speaker 1: you know, when he did play a full game last year,

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Speaker 1: he was the RB ten in terms of best ball

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Speaker 1: points added per game, and he was competing with Zach

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Speaker 1: mos for touches when he was healthy. Zach mosslick really

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Speaker 1: good last year, so kind of what you alluded to,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't have the same competition this year. Should be

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Speaker 1: back to that workhorse back. I mean, hell, when Zach

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Speaker 1: moss was making spots starts, didn't we have him like

365
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Speaker 1: in our top five every week? I mean, that's that's

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Speaker 1: Zach Mossler talking about. So just anytime you get a

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Speaker 1: workhorse back in this offense, they should be treated like

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Speaker 1: a top five back. And Taylor is certainly an elite back,

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Speaker 1: so you know, I like him here that the only

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Speaker 1: problem is he's kind of sitting up a top a

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Speaker 1: tier of you know, four to five backs that I

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Speaker 1: have ranked, you know, all within a point of each other.

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Speaker 1: But you can't really get too picky this this range.

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Speaker 1: This is really the end of the first round beginning

375
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Speaker 1: of the second round. You're deciding, you know, do you

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Speaker 1: want to take two elite receivers or take one of

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Speaker 1: these backs. That's really what it comes down to. And

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Speaker 1: Taylor's you know, an excellent option there. But I think

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Speaker 1: it comes down to kind of what what you want

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Speaker 1: to do because there's usually really good receivers there and

381
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Speaker 1: you could take a swing on one of these backs

382
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Speaker 1: and hope, you know, someone makes it back to you.

383
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Speaker 1: But it's more of an overall draft strategy, I think

384
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Speaker 1: with these guys, and you know, if you're the type

385
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Speaker 1: person that likes the zero RB strategy, load up at

386
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Speaker 1: receiver here and skip these guys. But you know, I

387
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Speaker 1: have no problem taking guy like Taylor at the end

388
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Speaker 1: of the first round or beginning of the second and

389
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Speaker 1: pair him up within the late receiver. I think that's

390
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Speaker 1: that's a perfectly fine start to your draft.

391
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Speaker 2: Yeah, he just feels like, you know, I know, he's

392
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Speaker 2: at the I guess, the top of the of a

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Speaker 2: tier with you know, ahead of you know, Gibbs and

394
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Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley and Kyron Williams. But I do feel like

395
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Speaker 2: the floor for Taylor is a lot higher, just because

396
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Speaker 2: when you have Gibbs, you're talking about a lot of

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Speaker 2: variants because just how much, you know, how much is

398
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Speaker 2: that split chain from last year where it was, you know,

399
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Speaker 2: Montgomery was kind of like sixty forty in terms of

400
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 2: the carries for Montgomery and kind of reversed in terms

401
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 2: of the passing snaps. Then you got Barkley on a

402
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 2: new team, Karen Williams. You know, you know Blake Krum

403
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,479
Speaker 2: he has to compete with, so it like Taylor. I mean,

404
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 2: you got Evan Hole who missed most of his rookie season,

405
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Speaker 2: and like I said, you know, Sermon Goodson just not

406
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 2: much to speak of behind him. So I don't mind

407
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Speaker 2: Taylor at all here, even though he is on the

408
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Speaker 2: top of a tier, because he's like if you look

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Speaker 2: at floor, I feel like he's almost in a tier

410
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Speaker 2: by himself. When you when you look at median or ceiling,

411
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Speaker 2: then then yeah, then those other guys start to equal him.

412
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Speaker 2: But if you're just in a traditional redraft league or

413
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Speaker 2: something like that, we just gotta you know, pick a

414
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Speaker 2: start and set your starting lineup each week and whatnot.

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Speaker 2: I do think Taylor does have a significantly higher floor

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Speaker 2: than than these next few guys.

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Speaker 1: Which you would value in the first three rounds. I

418
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Speaker 1: know that we kind of both preach that that first

419
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 1: three rounds you're just trying to not screw it up,

420
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Speaker 1: So taking higher floor guys is probably the way to go.

421
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 1: And then later in the draft, obviously we're all about ceiling.

422
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 1: There's nothing left to lose at that point, so I

423
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Speaker 1: definitely take your point that Taylor probably has the highest

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Speaker 1: flour of these backs, which which certainly helps in the

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Speaker 1: first couple of rounds.

426
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Speaker 2: And the offensive line very good. You know, Raymond at

427
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,360
Speaker 2: left tackle ended up grading out sevens of eighty one

428
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Speaker 2: tackles at PFF and then Smith on the other side

429
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Speaker 2: was number six, So they had two top seven tackles

430
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Speaker 2: Quenton Nelson and then Ryan Kelly at top five center

431
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: in the middle excuse me, top eight, and then you

432
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 2: know that's four out of five guys that are very

433
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 2: very good on the offensive line and plays indoors. So yeah,

434
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 2: lots to like about Taylor. Jamiir Gibbs, he is. He's

435
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 2: very intriguing but very kind of interesting to project because

436
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 2: you know, last season it was about twelve twelve carries

437
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: a game, but you know that was with you know,

438
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 2: Montgomery missing a couple of games and then later in

439
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 2: the year, Gibbs his workload didn't necessarily grow, you know,

440
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 2: which was interesting because you would think that for a

441
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: rookie back like him, as the year progressed, he would

442
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: start to see more and more work. But you know,

443
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 2: as we got you know, down the stretching into the playoffs,

444
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 2: Gibbs kind of his workload kind of stayed the same,

445
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 2: like it didn't really grow, you know, from that sixty

446
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 2: forty split with Montgomery in terms of the carries. So

447
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 2: what are you projecting that carry split this year? And

448
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: how do you feel about Gibbs in the top five

449
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 2: given that you know he is in this kind of committee.

450
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's a fascinating projection. And you know, I'm expecting

451
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 1: more of the same as last year. If anything, you know,

452
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 1: Gibbs will probably be even more involved. And you know,

453
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 1: he was as advertised as a rookie. He was very

454
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: efficient and you know, a serious whap and in the

455
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 1: passing game, and this is this is an offense we

456
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: certainly want to be investing in. And he ended up

457
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 1: putting up top ten numbers despite sharing the workload with

458
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 1: Daved Montgomery, who scored thirteen touchdowns. So you know, Gibbs

459
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: was seventh and best ball points added per game. He

460
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: missed two games, Montgomery missed three. So that's that's a

461
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: typical mix you'd probably expect from a backfield like this.

462
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 1: So that's that's kind of where you know, I'd expect

463
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: him to be this year. Now, you know, and this

464
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: offense is certainly capable of supporting two quality fantasy backs.

465
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 1: But I think RB five certainly makes sense because he

466
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: might have the most upside of this group. You know,

467
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 1: if Montgomery we're gonna miss multiple games or you know,

468
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: have a season ending Andrew early On. I hope he doesn't,

469
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 1: but he would Gibbs it off for RB two overall value.

470
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: I think in that situation he could threaten a guy

471
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: like Breise Hall to be the RB two, So he

472
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 1: do have that baked in. It's kind of weird because

473
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: his backup, so to speak, kind of hinders you know,

474
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: his weekly four his outlook. But it also if he

475
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 1: were to miss time really unlocks the biggest jump out

476
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: of all these backs they could see, Like if Trey

477
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 1: Sermon were to miss time, Jonathan Taylor's projection really wouldn't

478
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: change much, you know, So he's kind of stuck there.

479
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 1: But Gibbs he could, he could go all the way

480
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: up to RB two. So that's kind of why I

481
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: think RB five makes the most sense for him because

482
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 1: he should see you know, a couple spots starts without Montgomery,

483
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 1: where he's going to be offering you know, top two

484
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 1: upside potentially, So just heading into year two where he

485
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: might actually see more of a workload means that you know,

486
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 1: he's probably worth it here, just based on his four

487
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: ceiling combo.

488
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him at one hundred and eighty eight. Carr,

489
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 2: He's about twelve and a half per game. Last year

490
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 2: he was at twelve point one per game, So just

491
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 2: ad a little modest increase in the work world, but

492
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: he still grades.

493
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: Out to my Yeah you said twelve and a half,

494
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 1: you said yep, yeah, and then yeah, I have him

495
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: right around there and have Montgomery like right around thirteen.

496
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: So it's just like a half more carrier game.

497
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have Montgomery thirteen and a half. So yeah,

498
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 2: I have Montgomery with one more carry per game. But

499
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 2: that's a bigger drop for Montgomery because last year he

500
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 2: had averaged fifteen point six. So, you know, you expect

501
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 2: a little bit of regression just in the Lions overall

502
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 2: run volume because last year it was just a really

503
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 2: great season for them, a lot of positive game scripts.

504
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 2: They're gonna have a tougher schedule this year and whatnot.

505
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: But yeah, overall, I'm expecting a slight increase in terms

506
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 2: of the snaps shares for Gibbs, but I would have

507
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: I would have kind of equaled him out. But it's

508
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 2: just that the fact that you know, down the stretch

509
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 2: into the playoffs, he didn't really you know, increase in workloads.

510
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 2: That's the only reason I'm not really giving him a

511
00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 2: huge boost in terms of the workload. Barkley, I think

512
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 2: is really interesting. So I actually did a piece on

513
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: Fantasy Labs where I looked at the over the last

514
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 2: decade running backs drafted in the top thirty six who

515
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 2: changed teams versus those who didn't. And the running backs

516
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,199
Speaker 2: that change teams tend to be over value, you know,

517
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 2: any any way you slice it. Whether you look at

518
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 2: you know their their value versus ADP, whether you look

519
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 2: at you know their upside, their floor. So you know, Barkley,

520
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 2: we've only had a handful of backs over the last

521
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 2: decade that have changed that around. A new team be

522
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: drafted as a top twelve back period, you know, it's

523
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: it's very rare that it happened. So this year we

524
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 2: have about three Barkley, Henry and if Josh Jacobs goes

525
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 2: into top twelve, depending on what site you're at, he

526
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 2: would count as well. So a middle concern from that angle,

527
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 2: there is some uncertainty here with you know, just how

528
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 2: like is he gonna get the DeAndre Swift workload? Is

529
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 2: he gonna get more like this old school Saquon bark

530
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 2: We work quote. Is he going to get any of

531
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 2: the Toush pushes? There's there is some uncertainty there. So

532
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 2: how are you projecting Saquon with Philly relative to you know,

533
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 2: what you would project him with if he was still

534
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 2: on the Giants.

535
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:26,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's also a fascinating projection. And you know, honestly, Barkley,

536
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 1: the Eagles could resemble sort of Christian McCaffrey to the Niners,

537
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: just in terms of like, holy shit, Like didn't even

538
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: realize that this is possible because you know, he's an

539
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: elite running back going to a better situation, is going

540
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: to have a much better offensive line than Philly. So

541
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: you should see, you know, pretty big boost in terms

542
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: of efficiency. That's not to say there aren't concerns because

543
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: you know, Jalen Hurts tends to scramble as opposed to

544
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: check down to his running back. And more importantly, you

545
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: know Jalen Hurts takes up most of the goal line

546
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 1: work with the Toush push and you kind of hinted

547
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 1: at it. I remember on our Favorites episode with Simon,

548
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: he was kind of mentioning that the Eagles are you know,

549
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: playing around with Barkley being the ball carrier and the

550
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: Toush push, And I think that is something we have

551
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: to monitor very closely because I think there is you know,

552
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: a non zero chance they could have him, you know,

553
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: handle those is a way to preserve Jalen Hurts. You know,

554
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 1: they're bringing Barkley to be the running back. He's a bigger,

555
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 1: bodied running back. He could certainly you know, handle it.

556
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: So that is something that I know you and I

557
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,479
Speaker 1: it would really impact our projections for both players. And

558
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: if that were to happen, if they were to just say,

559
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 1: you know what, Barkley is now the main ball carrier

560
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 1: in the Toush push, he would have RB one overall upside,

561
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: you know, to compete with christ McCaffrey. So that is

562
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: in his range of outcomes. Do I think that's going

563
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: to happen necessarily? No, But I think at worst, you know,

564
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: Barkley is going to be a top ten back in

565
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: this offense, even despite not seeing as many you know,

566
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 1: short yard of touchdowns or sceptions as we're seeing. But

567
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: I think the efficiency is there and there is still,

568
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: you know, a massive touchdown upside in this offense, especially

569
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: if he were to be a part of the Toush

570
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: push plans. So I think, just having said that he

571
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 1: does similar to Jamier Gibbs, he does have like more

572
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 1: upside than I think we realize. So I'm definitely okay

573
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: taking him here at RB six.

574
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the ceiling is massive because I agree, I think

575
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 2: that there is a non zero chance that he could

576
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 2: be used like Christian McCaffrey. There's also a possibility that,

577
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 2: you know, looking at just how much Jalen Hurts struggled

578
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: with the Blitz last year, maybe they're trying to increase

579
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 2: Hurts his utilization of you know, running backs in the

580
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 2: passing game. You know, that's that's just more of a

581
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 2: you know, a possibility. It's not anything I've specifically heard,

582
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: but yeah, the upside is all there, but it's just

583
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: the floor I think is also a little bit lower

584
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 2: because there's just some uncertainty. You know, we just don't know,

585
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: you know, exactly how he's gonna be used. You know,

586
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: if it's DeAndre Swift, that would be a little disappointing.

587
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 2: And even if it's Swift, you know, not counting that

588
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 2: week one game where he's like playing behind Gainwell, but

589
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 2: you know that would be disappointing. But then you also think, okay,

590
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 2: well they did pay up for for Saquon and free agency,

591
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: so you would think they're gonna kind of use him

592
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: to the wheels fall off. So why wider range of outcomes?

593
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: I think than usual? An he's a year older headed

594
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 2: into what is this age twenty seven season.

595
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 1: Now, so yeah, it sounds about right.

596
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's you know, I think the RB six

597
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 2: ranking is where I have him. It is right. I

598
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 2: think overall, like if I'm in a bestball league, I

599
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 2: probably want to have still have less exposure to him

600
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 2: than the field, just because you know, when you start

601
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 2: getting these older running backs new teams and the old

602
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 2: line isn't going to be as good, you know, with

603
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 2: with Kelsey retired, I do think there's some risks theres

604
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 2: but I do want to have him, you know I can.

605
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 2: You can you can have some build, some unique build

606
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: in terms of roster construction with him because you can

607
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 2: go like he can be your you know, your anchor

608
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 2: running back. If you're going like just one running back

609
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 2: early and then kind of like a uh uh uh,

610
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 2: you know, hero running back, I guess you call it.

611
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 2: You could also double up if you get like, you know,

612
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 2: one of the top three running backs, you can sometimes

613
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 2: Saquon will will fall to you in round two. So

614
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: I kind of like going with the more contrarian running back.

615
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: Heavier builds when I'm drafting Saquon, But overall, I do

616
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 2: think I want to have less of him than the field,

617
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 2: just because you know, RB six is uh. You know,

618
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: there's still a lot of stud receivers going there, and

619
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 2: you know, given just the the the uh you know,

620
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 2: how running backs tend to miss more games, and the

621
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 2: Barkley's age and the fact that he's had injuries and

622
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 2: just the all the uncertainty overall, you know, I'm not

623
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 2: like overly excited about it, but the ceiling, the ceiling

624
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 2: is there. So I do want to have him somewhat,

625
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 2: but yeah, I'm gonna be fading him a little bit.

626
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jason Kelsey's retirement obviously hurts the offensive line, but

627
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: that's what's something that could shake up, you know, how

628
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: they handle the toush push as in giving Barkley the

629
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: ball or something like that, some variation of the play.

630
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: So I think that overall that that hurts Barkley, but

631
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 1: it could set something up where Barkley is involved in

632
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 1: the toush push. But yeah, again, like this is the

633
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 1: range where you can still you get you know, potentially

634
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,959
Speaker 1: a stud receiver in the first round, then he get

635
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 1: Barkley in the second round, or kind of vice versas.

636
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 1: So I think you can still get Barkley and a

637
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 1: Stud receiver. It's kind of just up to you how

638
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 1: you want to start the draft with, you know, two

639
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 1: stud receivers or mix in someone like Barkley.

640
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 2: All right, we'll get through running backs seven through twelve

641
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: in a minute, but before we move on, just wanted

642
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 2: to pause really quick to talk about Fantasy labs dot com.

643
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 2: That's where all of our season long fantasy football content

644
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:05,239
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty four will live. Fantasylabs dot com has

645
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:09,080
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646
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,680
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647
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 2: have all our we'll have all us start info there

648
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,719
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649
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,480
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Speaker 2: dot com. That's different from prior years when our fantasy

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Speaker 2: advantage now that promo code fl ex to zero. All right,

659
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 2: RB seven, Kyen Williams, your boy, how are you projected

660
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 2: in mister? Because I go back and forth with him.

661
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 2: It's really tough because he's one of those guys where,

662
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 2: you know, we're running backs. We're kind of just projecting

663
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 2: like a you know, a uniform amount of miss games

664
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 2: for the position. I think that's the way you and

665
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 2: I do it, except for really special cases. But you know,

666
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 2: Kien has own hasn't played more than twelve games and

667
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 2: either of his two pro seasons, and you know, break

668
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 2: Blake Korum was a rookie drafted on you know early

669
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 2: on day late in Day two, and I do think

670
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 2: that they want to kind of scale back Kyen's workload

671
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 2: a little bit. You know, last season he had two

672
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,399
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty touches in the regular season two hundred

673
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 2: and seventy four if he count the postseason. So you know,

674
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 2: I don't know if he gets like anywhere near that

675
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 2: nineteen attempts per game, but that is the ceiling we

676
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 2: saw it last year. So like, how much regression in

677
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: terms of the usage are you projecting for Kien? I

678
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 2: think that's the question.

679
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, so he's he's tough to project. But you know,

680
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 1: I regret being a Kyroen Stan when he was rooking

681
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two and then just giving up after

682
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 1: Sean McVay frustratingly used Cam Akers as the lead back.

683
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 1: You know, I knew McVeigh was unpredictable, but I assumed

684
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: Akers would be the lead back last year after he

685
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 1: closed out the twenty twenty two season on a terror

686
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 1: if you remember, he was like the RB one over

687
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:37,240
Speaker 1: the final six weeks. But I should have known better,

688
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 1: and sure enough, you know, Kyroen was a league winner

689
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: last year, average second most basketball points out of per game,

690
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: he proved he could be a true workhorse back. I

691
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 1: actually didn't think he had it in him. He's a

692
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:50,919
Speaker 1: smaller back. I thought he'd be more of a pass

693
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: catching type of back. And maybe that's kind of what

694
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 1: they're hinting out here by drafting, you know, one of

695
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 1: the top running backs in Blake Korum. I think they

696
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: realized that he probably can't handle a full workload for

697
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 1: a full season and stay healthy. So I think that's

698
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 1: a concern for his twenty twenty four outlook. And to

699
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,439
Speaker 1: be honest, there's a non zero chance that Korum could

700
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: lead frog him and becoming lead back. We've seen this

701
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 1: time and time again with mcphay. I mean, this is

702
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 1: basically you know, the Niners all over again. We just

703
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: want whoever's the running back in this offense we want,

704
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: but it could be pretty volatile. So I still love

705
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 1: Kiraen Williams. I think he's talented, but Blake Korum is

706
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 1: a serious talent. So I think drafting Kien Williams RB

707
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 1: seven is already kind of frozen PONDI in my opinion,

708
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 1: because it's very tempting. I mean, he could easily via

709
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,439
Speaker 1: the top three back this year. If they just give

710
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 1: him the same usage. But I just think Koram is

711
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: going to factor in too much. And it's rare that

712
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 1: you have a top ten back like this that you

713
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,280
Speaker 1: could actually see, you know, becoming the backup at some point.

714
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: I don't think that's likely, but it's still possible. So

715
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,959
Speaker 1: I am not really targeting him here at RB seven,

716
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: and I rather just invest in Quorum later in the draft.

717
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: But I think at the end, the time to get

718
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: Karen Williams is last year. You know, he's kind of

719
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 1: going at cost here, but as you've kind of hinted,

720
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 1: I think he has probably the lowest floor of all

721
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: the backs you know, going in this range. So that's

722
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 1: that's what scares me the most.

723
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's so he's my RB seven and I totally agree.

724
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 2: I think there's a non zero chance he gets jumped out.

725
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 2: I don't think it will happen just based on you

726
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: know performance, but you know, we factor an injury and

727
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,760
Speaker 2: you know we've talked about this on prior pods. Karen

728
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 2: Williams missed OTAs with a foot injury, so you don't

729
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 2: like to see a lower leg injury for a running

730
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 2: back coming off. You know, the most touches he's ever had,

731
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: you know, and he's already you know, got got a

732
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: lower leg injury in camp that that's just not ideal.

733
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 2: He is my RB seven, But I do have a

734
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 2: significant aggression in touches, which speaks to just you know,

735
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 2: how valuable the league back in this Rams offense is.

736
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 2: You know, they're they're an indoor team, uh, pretty efficient offense.

737
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: But I have him for about sixteen and a half

738
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 2: touches per game. Now, last year, you know, he was

739
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:20,439
Speaker 2: well over twenty uh so he was at twenty one

740
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 2: point seven last year, So I do have some significant

741
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 2: regression a yet he still projects as the as my

742
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 2: RB seven. Now there's like tens of a point between

743
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 2: him and Etnu and Chan and Pacheco Cook Henry, Like

744
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 2: there's a bunch of these guys are separated by less

745
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 2: than a half a point in my ranking. So Kyrak Williams,

746
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 2: when I say RB seven, I could you know, lower

747
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 2: him like a half a carry or something like that,

748
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:50,800
Speaker 2: and he goes to RB fourteen. You know, he goes

749
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 2: like right here, peak up.

750
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 1: Yeah.

751
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:56,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, So yeah, it's I do agree. I think last

752
00:39:56,480 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 2: year was the year to draft Kyra Williams. Now, he's

753
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 2: just more of Okay, you're playing basketball leagues, you know

754
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: you you're gonna want some exposure to him. But another guy,

755
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 2: yeah it this this this year. And this is again

756
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:14,320
Speaker 2: why I said Jonathan Taylor looks better and better because

757
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 2: you know, John Tremire gives great like you said, you know,

758
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 2: his backup goes down, but like you know, Gibbs is

759
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 2: not even getting the most carries. Kiren Williams has a

760
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: chance to get jumped, and he's already dealing with a

761
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 2: foot injury.

762
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 1: Uh.

763
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 2: And then the next guy up is Travis Etn and

764
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 2: he's he seems pretty safety only I guess knock with

765
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 2: him is we have been hearing some buzz about they

766
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 2: want to scale his workload back a little bit too

767
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 2: and get biggs By some more carries. Now that's easier

768
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 2: said than done, because big Bee, you know, was not

769
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 2: big at all last year. Like it just you know,

770
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 2: if he plays like he did last year, he's not

771
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 2: gonna get much work. But we did see Etn's uh

772
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: usage down the stretch kind of decrease a little bit

773
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: as well. So I'm curious as to how you're feeling

774
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 2: about Etn do you have him as RB eight, do

775
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 2: you have him higher? And how do you how do

776
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 2: you kind of compare him versus Tyroan? Do you feel

777
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 2: like ten has a higher floor? About about equal?

778
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think he does have a higher floor.

779
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,399
Speaker 1: That's why I'm flipped. I have Etn as my RB

780
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 1: seven and Kyron as my RB eight, albeit like with

781
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 1: wide range outcomes towards his floor, I think for Kiren.

782
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 1: But you know, Etn had just an amazing season last year,

783
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 1: finished third overall, you know, credit to playing all seventeen games,

784
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: but he was tied for six and points per game.

785
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 1: So I think the situation remained similar this year. And

786
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 1: I fell for the tank Bixby hype a little bit

787
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 1: last year, so I was a little bit down on Etn.

788
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 1: So it's one of those situations where it's like, fool

789
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 1: me once, shame on you. I'm not going to fall

790
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 1: for that again right here. And Bigsby struggled, and I know,

791
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 1: you know, Doug Peterson and saying he wants to get

792
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 1: a more involved but it's one thing to say it

793
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 1: as coach speaking, it's another thing to do it. So

794
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 1: just at the end of the day, it's I'm thinking,

795
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: who am I more worried about Tanks, Big Spy or

796
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 1: Blake korm And my answer is I'm more worried about

797
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 1: Blake Korme. So that's why I'm going to be drafting

798
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:21,800
Speaker 1: ETN ahead of Kyen Williams. I just think that it's

799
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 1: less likely that Bigsby will eat into his workload enough

800
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: to matter. And you kind of hit the nail on

801
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 1: the head earlier when you were fiddling with Kyle Williams.

802
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 1: His rushing at tent projection just going down to half

803
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 1: carry and he drops all the way to a mid

804
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 1: range RB two. I think that it's not necessarily I

805
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 1: think Koran's gonna leap frog and become the starting back.

806
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 1: It just could be more of like a Nausey Harris

807
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 1: and Jalen Warren situation, where you know, Warren solid enough

808
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 1: to eat into his workload to make him more of

809
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 1: a frustrating mid range RB two.

810
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:53,959
Speaker 2: I don't.

811
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 1: I just don't see that happening with ETN. I think ETN,

812
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 1: you know, he was a legit prospect and Bigsby really

813
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,919
Speaker 1: struggles rookie. So I'm just not buying Bigsby eating into

814
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 1: his workload enough. Whereas Korum. I definitely believe that. So

815
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 1: between these two guys, give me ETN.

816
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I actually have ETN for more touches than

817
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 2: Kyraen Williams. I have ETN for about two hundred and

818
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 2: seventy total touches over fifteen games or was I have

819
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 2: Kiren for about two hundred and forty five, So Kiren,

820
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 2: I do expect Kyen to be more efficient. ETN had

821
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 2: the lowest yards after contact of any back we've discussed

822
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 2: so far, any of any back in the in the

823
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: top ten in AP two at two point eight seven. Now,

824
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 2: it's not it's about we average, So it's not, you know,

825
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 2: terrible or anything like that, but that that's kind of

826
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 2: I guess the biggest quote unquote knock on him is

827
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,879
Speaker 2: he's been a little bit less efficient. And I look

828
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 2: at yards after contact. Yards before contact is largely offensive line,

829
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 2: you know, in terms of you know what what what

830
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:12,720
Speaker 2: it explains, but yards after contact tends to be mostly

831
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:15,720
Speaker 2: a running back and it's a lot more stickier sticky

832
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 2: one year to the next. So but yeah, given that,

833
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 2: uh yeah, I think et N has a higher flow

834
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 2: than Kyron as well. And you know, it's funny because

835
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 2: you know, you mentioned this tier is kind of frozen

836
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 2: pondy and you know, I mean it's it's it's not

837
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:39,919
Speaker 2: like these backs are all talented and these and they're

838
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 2: all gonna get you know, they're all gonna get you know,

839
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 2: well over two hundred touches and whatnot. But Devon ah

840
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 2: Chan he's another one where it's like, I mean, I

841
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 2: don't think there's you know, in my model the way

842
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 2: I project uh, you know, these guys like his, there's

843
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:00,839
Speaker 2: a few different Like there's a there's essentially a lot

844
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 2: of variants to his usage, and there's a lot of

845
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:07,800
Speaker 2: variance to his efficiency because he was the most efficient

846
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 2: back in I mean probably a decade in terms of

847
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 2: how many carries he had, you know, how many touches

848
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 2: he had to be that efficient. So this is another

849
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 2: really tough projection. I'll give how about let's do it

850
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 2: this way before we just talk about him. I'll give you.

851
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 2: I'll give you an over under for eight Chan and

852
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 2: you tell me with cur do you like it. I'll

853
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 2: do it for I'll do it for a few stats,

854
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:40,320
Speaker 2: all right, for carries over under one sixty four and

855
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 2: a half under rushing yards over under seven eighty.

856
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: And a half over we had down on that half over,

857
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: so less carries, more efficiency, and how many.

858
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:01,280
Speaker 2: With the receptions over under thirty nine and a half?

859
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: Damn it, I have it thirty nine. I'll go under

860
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 1: by half.

861
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 2: Those what do you have?

862
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 1: Those are great lines? Oh so you're setting up where

863
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 1: I have them?

864
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:13,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's gonna happen.

865
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 1: Well, just based on projections RB fourteen. Where do you

866
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: have him?

867
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,399
Speaker 2: I have him RB nine, But he's literally a less

868
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 2: than attentive point ahead of ahead of my ten eleven

869
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 2: and just over a tenth of a point ahead of

870
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 2: my RB twelve. So this is why I asked you,

871
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 2: because like I can literally not even a half carry

872
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 2: like a quarter carrier quarter touch like a percentage or

873
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:41,240
Speaker 2: two of uh you know, uh route rate. It changes everything.

874
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a really tough projection. But I

875
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 2: think let's the starting point for projecting chan. You know,

876
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 2: Miami probably isn't gonna have the number three and four

877
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 2: backs quite as involved this year. I mean that was

878
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 2: just you know, a special year where Miami put up

879
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:00,879
Speaker 2: a bunch of big numbers and I had a bunch

880
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 2: of blowouts, and you got Brooks involved and whatnot. But

881
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 2: you got to think hen and most are if healthy, Uh,

882
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 2: you know, get about ninety percent of the backfield carries,

883
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 2: you know, ninety ninety five percent combined, so that should

884
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 2: be about twenty twenty one carries. Last year they averaged

885
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 2: twenty four point two non quarterback design carries, So I'm

886
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 2: expecting a little bit of a regression. But h in

887
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 2: moster are carries per game? What do you think, like,

888
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 2: is it is it fifty to fifty? Is it fifty

889
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 2: five to forty five? Moster in terms of the split,

890
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 2: like what do you have it?

891
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:41,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I would say that most will probably

892
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 1: get I have them about a carry and a half

893
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: more per game. But HN will get a little over

894
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 1: more than one reception than most are per game, and

895
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 1: most are will probably get you know, the easier touchdowns,

896
00:47:57,680 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 1: the goal line touchdowns, whereas h Chan can score for

897
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: anywhere on the field, which is certainly valuable. So you

898
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 1: already said it. You know, eight Chan's going to be

899
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 1: very volatile. At the end of the day, It's going

900
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,919
Speaker 1: to come down to how many games where eight Chan

901
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 1: and most are healthy between the two. I think that's

902
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: what his final rank is gonna you know, dictate, but

903
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: he's easily the most polarizing back in the top ten.

904
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 1: I would say he could be at the top of

905
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 1: the next tier. I think this is a bit of

906
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: a tier jump. I think Derrick Henry is still on

907
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 1: this this tier three, whereas a Chans certainly towards the

908
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 1: top of the next one. But just all the uncertainty

909
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,279
Speaker 1: at this point in the draft, you're really, you know,

910
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 1: kind of playing a bit risky, you know, with him.

911
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 1: He missed six games as a rookie. It was a

912
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:55,840
Speaker 1: knee injury. He also battled you know, tow and rib injuries,

913
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 1: but he played through them. So I'm not sure it's

914
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 1: fair to call him, as you know, like an injury risk.

915
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 1: But backs in this scheme do tend to be because

916
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 1: you know, McDaniel comes from the Shanahan coaching tree where

917
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,320
Speaker 1: he likes these smaller backs with a ton of speed

918
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:14,359
Speaker 1: and just the way that the run scheme works, there's

919
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 1: a lot of trust and offensive line, so they could

920
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 1: take some you know, potentially bigger shots and they're smaller backs,

921
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 1: so you know, both backs are sort of injury prone.

922
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 1: So I think they both have a wide range of outcomes.

923
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 1: If most aert were to miss time, I think eight

924
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:34,919
Speaker 1: Chan would easily be you know, a top five back.

925
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 1: But when healthy, there's no denying that Mozart is eating

926
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 1: a ton of these high value touches, especially near the

927
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 1: red zone, where it just makes it tough for me

928
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 1: to take eight Chan RB nine, right, I mean, he's

929
00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 1: one of the sexier picks. Like if you're watching the games,

930
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 1: you said it, he's like the most explosive back in

931
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 1: the league, bar Nutt Like he's exciting to watch. He's

932
00:49:56,040 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 1: very efficient, but you just can't ignore Mosert, you can't

933
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 1: ignore some of the injury risks. So it's it's a

934
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: tough buy for me. At RB nine, I wouldn't have

935
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 1: zero shares here, but I definitely wouldn't be overweight.

936
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 2: Yeah for me, this this is why this tier is

937
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:14,760
Speaker 2: a best ball tier. Like it's like all the guys

938
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:20,800
Speaker 2: we've mentioned, you know, uh, Taylor, I'm fine, but like Gibs, Barkley, Kiren,

939
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 2: e t n H and these are pretty much best

940
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:28,920
Speaker 2: ball you know guys. Me because the way the the

941
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:33,279
Speaker 2: way the draft board is kind of sets up. I

942
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 2: if I'm just in a regular league, then I'm usually

943
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:42,360
Speaker 2: going some form of zero RB more often than not.

944
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:44,920
Speaker 2: You know, not that will depend on draft, but you know,

945
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:50,879
Speaker 2: I'll take McCaffrey, Breeze, Bjohn But generally speaking that that

946
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 2: tier of gives Barkley, Kyron E t n h In

947
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 2: and the you know, the next few guys will mention.

948
00:50:56,760 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 2: It's just I think they're going a little bit too

949
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 2: high relative to the wide receivers for the uncertainty because

950
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 2: you know, we know a Chan is amazing, but you

951
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 2: could probably uh say the same thing about h and

952
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 2: you you could about hiring, Like last year was the

953
00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 2: year to have to draft ball. I remember, you know

954
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 2: you were you were hyping up a Chan and like

955
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 2: May last year right after the draft, and I mean, heck,

956
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:23,879
Speaker 2: maybe that's Jay when right this year who who's by

957
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 2: the way, bigger, a little bit bigger than a Chan,

958
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 2: so uh, you know, and and super fast as well.

959
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's what his rank is, probably not.

960
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm gonna leave him at RB nine.

961
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:41,280
Speaker 2: That's kind of where the consensus is. But like I said,

962
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:44,680
Speaker 2: I have two tents of a point between RB nine

963
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,320
Speaker 2: and RB fourteen, so a lot of things could could shift,

964
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, overall, I would rather draft receivers here unless

965
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 2: it's best ball, because I just I think the floor

966
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 2: is just like you just don't know, like he could. Yeah,

967
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 2: I mean, remember you know you had games where Chan

968
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 2: would get like nine carries for like look at that

969
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,759
Speaker 2: playoff game against Kansas City, who got like what not

970
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 2: even ten carries? You know, didn't do much of anything.

971
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 2: Now I do have him and most are pretty much

972
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 2: equal in carries because Moster is you know, on the

973
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:20,280
Speaker 2: other side of thirty. But if he entering his age

974
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:23,720
Speaker 2: thirty two season, I believe yeah, right, yeah, age thirty

975
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 2: two and Moster has never I mean, hm, we have

976
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 2: one season of him not being healthy. But like Moster,

977
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 2: you've seen this time and time again. So but then again,

978
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 2: like I said, Jalen Wright con factor and so it's

979
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 2: it's yeah, it's it's tough. I think the floor in

980
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:44,279
Speaker 2: regular redraft league is a little too low at this

981
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 2: spot relative to the receivers fastball obviously, that's where you

982
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 2: want some shares. Derrick Henry, another one of these guys

983
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 2: who change teams, goes from the Titans to the Baltimore Ravens.

984
00:52:57,520 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 2: Keaton Mitchell probably be out most of the year, so

985
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 2: he he's not gonna factor, and so Henry should get

986
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 2: you know, a decent, decent amount of work. Last year,

987
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:11,520
Speaker 2: I believe he led the league and carries, so you know,

988
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 2: it's not like this, he can't still tote the rock.

989
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 2: But he is entering his age thirty season, and he's

990
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 2: had you know, two straight seasons at three hundred plus touches.

991
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:24,760
Speaker 2: Four of the last five he's had three hundred plus touches.

992
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 2: So I do think there's there's just that risk of

993
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:35,759
Speaker 2: you know, new team uncertainty. There not crazy uncertainty, but

994
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:38,840
Speaker 2: you know, you do, you do worry just because Monkin

995
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:42,400
Speaker 2: like abandoned the run in that playoff game. You got

996
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:46,399
Speaker 2: the age factor. So I don't love Henry either, even

997
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 2: though he's probably you know, like from the outside looking in,

998
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 2: looks a little safer than some of these other guys,

999
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 2: you know, entering his age thirty season, just the body

1000
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 2: type coming off you know, three hundred plus touches. I

1001
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 2: don't feel great about it. I actually have him rb

1002
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 2: H twelve in my ranks, So actually have some younger

1003
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:07,319
Speaker 2: guys put Checko and James Cook a little bit ahead

1004
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 2: of Henry, especially because you know PPR, you don't expect

1005
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:11,839
Speaker 2: them to do much of anything. But where are you

1006
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 2: on Derrick Henry?

1007
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:17,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, so's he's my RB nine. You know, this is

1008
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 1: a situation where it's you know, stud running back going

1009
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 1: to a better situation in my opinion. And yeah, his

1010
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 1: age is a legit concern and the wheels could come

1011
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 1: off at any time if I'm being honest, But I

1012
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:31,879
Speaker 1: think you look good enough in his age twenty nine

1013
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 1: season last year to think he might have you know,

1014
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 1: one to two solid years left in him, and any

1015
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 1: like potential like age curve drop inefficiency could be offset

1016
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 1: by just a better situation with the Ravens. You know,

1017
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,760
Speaker 1: defenses already have enough to worry about with Lamar Jackson

1018
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 1: under center that it's finally going to take the focus

1019
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:55,799
Speaker 1: off of Henry, who was the focal point of the

1020
00:54:55,840 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 1: Titans offense for years now, so that that could help him,

1021
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,360
Speaker 1: But I think more importantly it's just going to be

1022
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 1: the goal line carries. You know, he scored seven touchdowns

1023
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 1: on sixteen rush at temps inside the five last year,

1024
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:14,240
Speaker 1: took most of the rush temps for the Titans. Expecting

1025
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 1: the same with the Ravens, but they had the second

1026
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:20,800
Speaker 1: most rush attempts inside the five air line two running backs,

1027
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 1: you know, Lamar jack It's not like the Eagles where

1028
00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 1: they're giving you know, Lamar Jackson goal line work. They

1029
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: do lean on the running back, probably more so now

1030
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:32,360
Speaker 1: that they have Henry. So just based on last year's numbers,

1031
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 1: Henry would have scored four to five more rushing touchdowns.

1032
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:38,200
Speaker 1: So just I think being in a better offense will

1033
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 1: certainly boost his touchdown upside. And I think the deficiency

1034
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 1: could be upset, you know, his declient in age could

1035
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:48,399
Speaker 1: be upset with just a better situation where he could

1036
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 1: see more holes. So I like him right here at

1037
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 1: pick ten. Like I said, I had him RB nine.

1038
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,040
Speaker 1: I think that's the end of the third tier at

1039
00:55:57,080 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 1: running back for me. And he's one of those we

1040
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 1: keep saying he has a very high floor. Some of

1041
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:05,040
Speaker 1: these backs, you know, we're kind of concerned about their floor.

1042
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 1: He doesn't really have that concern at all. So I

1043
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 1: definitely like taking him RB nine here.

1044
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking at our projections. We have him pretty

1045
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,840
Speaker 2: much the same amount of rushing yards one thousand and forty,

1046
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 2: about just over twenty receptions each. The big difference you

1047
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 2: have him for eleven rushing touchdowns and I have him

1048
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 2: for nine.

1049
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's a bit.

1050
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, eleven, that's that's is that one of the

1051
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 2: highest you've ever projected? Eleven sounds pretty high.

1052
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 1: I think projection just like for a model, not for him,

1053
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:44,840
Speaker 1: but yeah, no, it's high. Yeah, I think, you know,

1054
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:48,360
Speaker 1: it's warranted. Like I said, just that the potential attempts

1055
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:51,479
Speaker 1: he would have seen in this offense last year would

1056
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,399
Speaker 1: have added four to five touchdowns. And I'm not just saying, oh,

1057
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:57,799
Speaker 1: last year is going to repeat itself, but I think

1058
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 1: just there's gonna be significantly more goal line chances in

1059
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:05,240
Speaker 1: this offense. So it's it's definitely fueling my touchdown projection

1060
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 1: for him.

1061
00:57:06,640 --> 00:57:10,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I you know, Henry's tough because I

1062
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 2: feel like people are just waiting for him to decline

1063
00:57:13,600 --> 00:57:16,440
Speaker 2: and he's just such a stud in terms of athletically

1064
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 2: that he will but you know, I don't want to

1065
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 2: just be too early. But at the same time, a

1066
00:57:23,960 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 2: couple of numbers that I found interesting when I was

1067
00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 2: looking at, you know, backs to change teams being drafted

1068
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:37,360
Speaker 2: with a top twelve adply, only nine percent have beat ADP,

1069
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 2: which you know, that's still much a lower rate than

1070
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 2: what you would expect, even though it's not far to

1071
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:46,160
Speaker 2: go up. But and then over the past decade, there's

1072
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 2: only been one top five back that's finished in the

1073
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 2: top five. Like, there's only been one back that's finished

1074
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 2: in the top five, regardless of where he's been drafted

1075
00:57:56,200 --> 00:58:00,200
Speaker 2: ADP wise, anywhere in the top thirty six. So it's

1076
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 2: there are some numbers kind of with some of these

1077
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 2: backs changing teams that give me some pause, But it's

1078
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 2: I think a lot of it's just due to age.

1079
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 2: So that's kind of why I'm a little bit. But

1080
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 2: like I think Henry is gonna like the touchdown upside

1081
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 2: is massive, So I still want him in Best Ball,

1082
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:19,439
Speaker 2: but I do think there is a little bit more

1083
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 2: injury risk and and a little less receiving upside than

1084
00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 2: i'd like, you know, to draft with a you know,

1085
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 2: top nine, top ten pick. So that's why I'm at

1086
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 2: twelve for him. All right, Shod White, he's another he's

1087
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 2: a weird I mean, Bucky Irving. I know you like

1088
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 2: Bucky Irving the rookie. Do you think he's a serious

1089
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 2: threat to Rashad White or you know, does White continue

1090
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 2: to just dominate the usage He's another guy who down

1091
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 2: the stretch his usage tailed off slightly. You know, Edmonds

1092
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 2: was getting a few more pass snaps. But what do

1093
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:57,840
Speaker 2: you what do you? Where do you have a White?

1094
00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:01,360
Speaker 2: He's RB eleven in in eighty, I have him Marbi fifteen.

1095
00:59:01,360 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 2: Where do you have him?

1096
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm definitely closer to you. I have him RB fourteen.

1097
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think he's one of those backs that

1098
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 1: probably has a lower floor than my rankings even given

1099
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:16,800
Speaker 1: credit for because last year he continued to struggle in

1100
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 1: terms of efficiency. I was kind of fading him last

1101
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 1: year because of that. But you know, he averages three

1102
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: point six yards per kerry. It was actually a drop

1103
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:28,600
Speaker 1: from his rookie season at three point seven yards per kerry.

1104
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:31,120
Speaker 1: But you know, not all the blame can be placed

1105
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 1: on him. Tampa Bay was dead last in ESPN's run

1106
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 1: block win rate, and I think the coaches realized this.

1107
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 1: You know, that's why he still operated as the workhorse

1108
00:59:40,400 --> 00:59:42,640
Speaker 1: back and why he was still a viable fancy option.

1109
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 1: You know, they tried to mix in early in the season.

1110
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 1: It was Sean Tucker, but he struggled to really be

1111
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,480
Speaker 1: the true number two back. Maybe eat in his workload

1112
00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:55,920
Speaker 1: so then they switched to Keshan Vaughan, who struggled, and

1113
00:59:55,960 --> 00:59:59,440
Speaker 1: then Chase Edmonds was finally healthy by week eight, I believe,

1114
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:01,560
Speaker 1: and he struggl too, So I think that's kind of

1115
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:05,040
Speaker 1: the point is White didn't really have much competition from

1116
01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:07,040
Speaker 1: the number two slots, So the fact that they do

1117
01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 1: bring in Bucky Irving, the fourth round pick out of Oregon,

1118
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:14,400
Speaker 1: he is he has a smaller back, you know, five

1119
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 1: to nine, but he's a much more physical runner than

1120
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:21,840
Speaker 1: his size would indicate. So I think he could be

1121
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 1: the first serious threat for White, not not to like

1122
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 1: take over as lead back, but certainly eat into his

1123
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,600
Speaker 1: workload enough to matter. So that's that's why I'm a

1124
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 1: bit concerned. Especially taking Rashad White at RB eleven, I

1125
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:41,000
Speaker 1: think that is definitely frozen pondy there, so similar to

1126
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:43,760
Speaker 1: to Blake Koran with Kyler Williams. You know, Bucky Irving

1127
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:46,280
Speaker 1: isn't quite as good as Blake Koran, but I think

1128
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:49,280
Speaker 1: just given the situation and lack of competition that White

1129
01:00:49,320 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 1: has really had, I think this could actually matter and

1130
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:54,600
Speaker 1: ding White to becoming more of you know, like a

1131
01:00:54,640 --> 01:00:57,600
Speaker 1: mid round, mid range RB two in this offense.

1132
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you talk about the RS for carrying, Yeah,

1133
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 2: a lot of it is the old line. But if

1134
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:05,120
Speaker 2: you filter for running backs that had one hundred and

1135
01:01:05,160 --> 01:01:07,360
Speaker 2: forty or more carries last year, there was thirty eight

1136
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 2: of them. White was thirty third in yards after contact

1137
01:01:11,200 --> 01:01:14,360
Speaker 2: at two point five to three according to Pro Football Focus.

1138
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:17,919
Speaker 2: Now there are some other you know, big names under him,

1139
01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:22,920
Speaker 2: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, DeAndre Swift, Josh Jacobs and so

1140
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:25,600
Speaker 2: you know, guys, we're going to talk about on the

1141
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 2: next pod. But you know that is something to keep

1142
01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 2: in mind. So yeah, I'm you know, he's kind of

1143
01:01:31,920 --> 01:01:35,479
Speaker 2: he feels frozen pondy as well. Yeah, and that's why

1144
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 2: I have him RB fifteen and actually have him behind

1145
01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 2: Kamara just because I think, uh, you know, I think

1146
01:01:42,080 --> 01:01:46,000
Speaker 2: Kamara is just because of his track record. I think

1147
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 2: he's a little safer, whereas White really has only two

1148
01:01:49,280 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 2: years and they've both been pretty bad yards after carry

1149
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 2: And you got Canalis leaving, so a new coaching staff too,

1150
01:01:55,760 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 2: so it's kind of defaulting too.

1151
01:01:57,840 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 1: And I played seven all seventeen games off here, Like

1152
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 1: I think anytime a running back plays all seventeen he

1153
01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:06,760
Speaker 1: kind of have to factor that in that he did

1154
01:02:06,800 --> 01:02:09,520
Speaker 1: have you know, positive injury luck. He didn't miss any time,

1155
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:12,600
Speaker 1: so I think that that that's kind of in play

1156
01:02:12,640 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 1: as well as and his rookie season only miss two games.

1157
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 1: But last year, you know, he benefited from not missing

1158
01:02:18,440 --> 01:02:19,280
Speaker 1: a single game too.

1159
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:22,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that and you know that could the efficiency

1160
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:24,800
Speaker 2: could go down more if he's you know, banged up

1161
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:27,400
Speaker 2: in questionable a couple of times, because that you know,

1162
01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 2: there is a about a you know, anywhere from five

1163
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,040
Speaker 2: to fifteen percent drop anytime a guy plays through an

1164
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 2: injury tag. So yeah, he could it could have even

1165
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:39,160
Speaker 2: been worse last year. So not excited about White. And

1166
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 2: then we'll close it out with Isaiah Pacheco. You know,

1167
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 2: as of now, Jared McKinnon has not been resigned by

1168
01:02:47,800 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. So do you think Pachecko kind of ticks

1169
01:02:51,440 --> 01:02:53,440
Speaker 2: up in terms of his receiving usage? Do you like

1170
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 2: him as a as a top twelve back? I actually

1171
01:02:56,000 --> 01:03:00,240
Speaker 2: have him tied for tenths, so I do like him him,

1172
01:03:00,600 --> 01:03:01,400
Speaker 2: But where are you?

1173
01:03:01,840 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 1: Yeah? I have him RB ten as well. You know,

1174
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:07,480
Speaker 1: I think last year he demonstrated he could be a

1175
01:03:07,520 --> 01:03:10,280
Speaker 1: work horseback. He had two hundred and fifty total touches.

1176
01:03:11,360 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 1: He was tied for fifteenth in points per game last season,

1177
01:03:13,880 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 1: So drafting him, you know, around RB twelve banks on

1178
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:19,520
Speaker 1: some sort of potential improvement, and I think you kind

1179
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 1: of allude to that where you know, Jerk McKinnon potentially

1180
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:25,680
Speaker 1: being out of the picture should help. You know, he

1181
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:27,960
Speaker 1: averaged nineteen a half points per game in the four

1182
01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:31,960
Speaker 1: games McKinnon missed last year, which would have been third

1183
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:35,520
Speaker 1: over the entire season. And you know, certainly Clyde Edwards

1184
01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:37,480
Speaker 1: Hilaire will kind of eat up a lot of the

1185
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:40,360
Speaker 1: leftover touches by McKinnon. But this is going to allow

1186
01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 1: Pacheco to potentially be more involved in the passing game,

1187
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 1: which is what we want in a Chiefs running back.

1188
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 1: So I think he definitely has top ten potential, less

1189
01:03:48,680 --> 01:03:51,680
Speaker 1: question marks and concerns than a lot of these other backs,

1190
01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 1: although I will bring up I'm not sure if he

1191
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 1: saw it, but they're working in Kadarius Tony at running back,

1192
01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 1: which I think could be a concern. I think that

1193
01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 1: probably is a smart play just to physically hand him

1194
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 1: the ball, give him some screens out of the backfield,

1195
01:04:08,040 --> 01:04:11,760
Speaker 1: but maybe they might use him as a potential McKinnon replacement.

1196
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:12,520
Speaker 1: What do you think about that?

1197
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 2: It's carryous Tony. I mean he's I mean he might,

1198
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 2: he might, he might make a play here and there,

1199
01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:25,840
Speaker 2: but it's carrious Tony. You know, like we followed our

1200
01:04:25,880 --> 01:04:29,440
Speaker 2: trap every year, like counting on canarious Tony to do things,

1201
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 2: and no, we're not going to do that.

1202
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:34,320
Speaker 1: But the interesting thing about r T So I haven't

1203
01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:35,120
Speaker 1: moved him yet, but.

1204
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I think the interesting thing about Pacheco.

1205
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 2: You know the last year, that first game, he actually

1206
01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:44,480
Speaker 2: only had eight carries, and you know Edward Dulaire was

1207
01:04:44,520 --> 01:04:48,400
Speaker 2: mixing in a lot more. But from week two on

1208
01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:52,080
Speaker 2: he averaged fifteen point two carries per game around the season,

1209
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:55,760
Speaker 2: fourteen point six fifteen point two after week one, and

1210
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:58,600
Speaker 2: if you count the four playoff games, which I mean

1211
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:01,120
Speaker 2: that's not necessarily reper centive of what he would do

1212
01:05:01,160 --> 01:05:04,200
Speaker 2: in the regular season because you know there's more at stake,

1213
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:10,200
Speaker 2: but he averaged twenty point three carries per game in

1214
01:05:10,240 --> 01:05:12,360
Speaker 2: the four playoff games. So if you if you take

1215
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:15,920
Speaker 2: his regular season and playoff average combined, he's at about

1216
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 2: fifteen point nine carries per game. If he was able

1217
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 2: to to carry that much even with no increase in

1218
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:26,760
Speaker 2: receiving usage, which he also that increased as well, but

1219
01:05:27,200 --> 01:05:29,560
Speaker 2: just the just the adding like an extra you know,

1220
01:05:29,680 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 2: carry carrying a half per game would be massive for

1221
01:05:34,040 --> 01:05:36,760
Speaker 2: him because you know, we talked about how close everything is.

1222
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:39,200
Speaker 2: So I think Pacheco is a guy who you know

1223
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:42,520
Speaker 2: at RB twelve, probably going at Coster a little bit

1224
01:05:43,080 --> 01:05:46,080
Speaker 2: even below. So he is a guy that that's where

1225
01:05:46,120 --> 01:05:50,440
Speaker 2: I'm starting to Okay, I'll start, I'll start investing into

1226
01:05:51,520 --> 01:05:54,040
Speaker 2: a running back around this tier. But even you know,

1227
01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:57,240
Speaker 2: even him, there's still you know, other positions that I'd

1228
01:05:57,360 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 2: rather draft here. But of the you know, I think

1229
01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:03,439
Speaker 2: Henry Williams et N. Bark, we get like those guys

1230
01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 2: worry me a lot more given cost and Pacheco, who

1231
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:09,880
Speaker 2: you know, by you're taking Pacheco third, you know, maybe

1232
01:06:09,880 --> 01:06:12,400
Speaker 2: even the fourth round, depending on on your site, the

1233
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:15,520
Speaker 2: site you're drafting at. I think that's a decent value

1234
01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:17,440
Speaker 2: for a guy that does have some room to grow

1235
01:06:18,000 --> 01:06:21,800
Speaker 2: usage wise, both you know, carries and in the passing game.

1236
01:06:22,200 --> 01:06:22,360
Speaker 1: Right.

1237
01:06:22,560 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 2: That is going to wrap it up for our Top

1238
01:06:24,160 --> 01:06:27,000
Speaker 2: twelve running back. Episode Part two will drop on Thursday

1239
01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 2: morning here on the Fantasy Flex feed, we'll get deeper

1240
01:06:29,760 --> 01:06:32,960
Speaker 2: into weeds with you know, some of the backup running

1241
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:35,280
Speaker 2: backs as well, because we'll talk about you know guys

1242
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:37,200
Speaker 2: you know out you know, in the in the flex

1243
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:39,640
Speaker 2: range and outside that as well in our next episode

1244
01:06:39,640 --> 01:06:42,280
Speaker 2: in addition to the RB two tier. So be sure

1245
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 2: to smash that subscribe button wherever you listen to podcast.

1246
01:06:45,960 --> 01:06:48,520
Speaker 2: And don't forget fancywabs dot com for all of our

1247
01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:53,680
Speaker 2: fantasy football content this year. Fantacywabs dot com slash flex

1248
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:56,760
Speaker 2: and you can use code flex twenty for twenty dollars

1249
01:06:56,760 --> 01:07:01,680
Speaker 2: off a Fantasy Lab subscription. Sean's on at the Underscarage Maker.

1250
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:03,760
Speaker 2: I'm at Chriss Raybond ret those Saint handles on the

1251
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:06,680
Speaker 2: three award winning Action Network app. Till next time. It's

1252
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:17,480
Speaker 2: good This money. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1253
01:07:17,920 --> 01:07:20,760
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1254
01:07:21,000 --> 01:07:23,640
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1255
01:07:23,720 --> 01:07:24,520
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