1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Abramowitz. Daily we bring you 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Let's move on 6 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: right now. And we are guilty of this, and I 7 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 1: am incredibly guilty of this. We look at well, the 8 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: joke of me going below fifty ninth Street, or the 9 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: idea that most of our audiences in three zip codes 10 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: and a couple in London as well, and we forget 11 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: about the open plains. Mike Rounds knows where the Missouri 12 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: River is. He knows it. Getting from Pierre, not Pierre, 13 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: but Pierre, South Dakota over to the Target store up 14 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: by twenty nine north the Sioux Falls is actually something 15 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: difficult to do. Evermore so five dollars a gallon gasoline. 16 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: The senator from South Dakota, their former governor, joins us 17 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 1: this morning, I want you to give me a visceral picture, 18 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,320 Speaker 1: real estate guy, of the emotion and Pier and the 19 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: emotion at that target store Northsoux Falls. What's going on 20 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,479 Speaker 1: out there away from the fancy people like Global Wall Street. 21 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 1: I know you like dollars and cents. The average South 22 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: Dakota family right now is paying over six d and 23 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 1: four dollars more per month in living expenses and what 24 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 1: they were in January of that's seven thousand dollars plus 25 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: per year more. And wages aren't going up that fast. 26 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: When you start talking about that in places like South Dakota, 27 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: the pain is real. And it's the same thing across 28 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: the entire country. And the worst part about this whole 29 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: thing is is this is policy induced. When you start 30 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: driving up the price of fuels, diesel, natural gas and 31 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:59,279 Speaker 1: so forth by policy determination. Uh, and you start limiting 32 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: the amounts of some applies that are being produced, and 33 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: you recognize that that you're doing it, and you do 34 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: it anyway, then it's a policy induced movement. We can 35 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: do a lot to change that right now in the 36 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: United States, and it's got to come back down to 37 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: an administration recognizing that. Uh. You know, look, I know 38 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: they're fighting climate change, but the bottom line is you've 39 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: got to have a strong economy to do a good 40 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: job on that. And they are hurting this economy with 41 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 1: their policies, and people in South Dakota field that and 42 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: they're not happy about it. Sent it around. Gerald Ford 43 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 1: of the Republican Grand Rapids Michigan Persuasion years ago said 44 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: he was gonna whip inflation. Now, what is the Republican 45 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: prescription day one to stop this inflation? There are three 46 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: parts of the policy. One is demand you can do 47 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: that through action of the Federal Reserve. But it's because 48 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: we put a huge amount of cash into the economy earlier. 49 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: Uh and that was a president that was a Biden 50 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: decision and he did it without the assistance of Republicans 51 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: in January of last year. At number two, you have 52 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: to read us the cost of energy, and that means 53 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 1: you produce more energy all of the above, whether it 54 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: be nuclear, whether it be more pumping, it means more 55 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: leases being released. And then allowing them to get that 56 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 1: that that crude oil out of the ground with additional 57 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: licenses and then allow them to be able to actually 58 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: move that to the marketplace with pipelines. That would be 59 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: an immediate thing. And finally, you have to address the 60 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: workforce issues right now. And I know that this isn't 61 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 1: a popular thing to talk about, but we have to 62 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: have legal immigration reform. We need visas, we need H 63 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: two B visas, we need H two A visas right now, 64 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: and we've got legislation in place right now that we're 65 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 1: recommending that would do that. All of those would help 66 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: to reduce inflation in this country and the effects would 67 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: be immediate. Well, just a senator, just to push back 68 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: a little bit. You're talking about the issues with certain 69 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: policy prescriptions that led to the inflation. But a lot 70 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: of this, a lot of economists say, is driven by 71 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: some of the supply disruption is whether it's in China 72 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: or particularly the war in Ukraine. How much do you 73 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: see as inflation staying high as a results certain national 74 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: security decisions being made that you've supported. Yeah, First of all, 75 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: I think the actual inflationary trends with regard to the 76 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: supply chains and so forth, a lot of that has 77 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: to do with the cost of transportation of those items. Now, 78 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: can you have supply disruptions, We had it. We had 79 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: it during the previous administration, but you did not see 80 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: that driving up inflation. You saw inflation begin almost immediately 81 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: upon the recognition that we were going to have increases 82 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: in the cost of energy within this country, and they 83 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: were going to be increased by policy determination. Once again, 84 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 1: if you take back and you look at the actual 85 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 1: costs of energy and the impact of that has on 86 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 1: all types of pricing for services and for products, it's 87 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: a no brainer that you can begin to reduce inflation 88 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: if you address the cost of energy. It's in all 89 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: those products aside from just the energy issue. Though, I'm wondering, Senator, 90 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: would you agree with potentially relaxing certain tariffs in China 91 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 1: or perhaps changing certain stances in order to reduce inflation domestically, 92 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: even if on a national security level it was viewed 93 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: to be prudent to keep certain things in place. I 94 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: think that there there is always the possibility of looking 95 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:23,480 Speaker 1: at modifying policy with regard to needed items. But remember 96 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: there's a reason why we put those in place in 97 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: the first place, and that was to try to develop 98 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: domestic production. But if you can't do it domestically and 99 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: you've tried it, then to look at other alternatives with 100 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 1: other countries. It's not that we want to produce everything 101 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: in the United States. We'd love to have good trading partners, 102 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: but we also have to recognize it. Simply going back 103 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: to China does not get into the long term scheme. 104 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: And as long as they're going to try to continue 105 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: to steal the i P in this country, we've got 106 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: to continue to to recognize the need for enforcement of 107 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: trade deals and the limitation of trade with China whenever 108 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: possible until they come around and recognize that they can't 109 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: be stealing the i P, the copyrights and so forth. 110 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: So yeah, look, I I'd be very stingy about going 111 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: back on what we've already done with China. I try 112 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: to develop some of those products, those product lines with 113 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: our other allies and other people that literally want to 114 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: do business with us under the rule of law. Senator, 115 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: thanks for your time today. We appreciate it, Senator. My 116 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 1: grants there on the story at d C and Worldwide. 117 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: Love Hano joins US now Global Chief Investment Officer of 118 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 1: State Street Global Advices. Laurie, you've got that big cash position. 119 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: You can talk to us about how big that is. 120 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 1: What do you want you for to deploy it? Well, 121 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: first of all, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, 122 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 1: So I would say the biggest theme around our portfolios 123 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: right now is less about the directional trade and much 124 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: more about the relative value. So we've been trading around 125 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: different markets, deploying capital into the US, which we thought 126 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 1: was still a bit of a safe haven relative to 127 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: other regions, but also looking at places like commodities, looking 128 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: like at places like gold and as you say, holding 129 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 1: a bit of a five percent cash position right now, Laura, 130 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: you are the perfect one to talk about right now. 131 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: And folks, this is the esteem Shairman of Bloomberg Peter T. 132 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:10,679 Speaker 1: Grower telling me in times of stress you see transactions 133 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: and combinations calls is flat on their back. They have 134 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: just announced within all the troubles of calls over decades, 135 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 1: board thoroughly testing standalone strategic plan. Are we going to 136 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 1: see one big roll up, Laurie of American Financing corporations 137 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: out of these risks and challenges, Well, every situation is. 138 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: It is socratic. And one of the things that striking 139 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: about the recent announcements on the consumer side is that 140 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: we've known for a while that consumers were likely to 141 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: move from more goods oriented purchases to more service oriented purchases. 142 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: And while we certainly have had some of the news 143 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: out on on some of those retail uh franchises. The 144 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: other side of it is you've got airlines and other 145 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: service providers that are actually saying very good demanded actually 146 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: having the chrising power. So there's it's not just a 147 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: one size so it's all there's gonna be a out 148 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 1: of idiosyncratic behavior and companies that can think about what 149 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: their exposures are and how to hedge those and where 150 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: they do have pricing flexibility or power, those are the 151 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,239 Speaker 1: ones that are going to survive. I can't emphasize Lisa enough. 152 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: They need here to see one size is wrong. Target 153 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: four fifty thousand employees Calls thirty five thousand, and yet 154 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: people like to compare the two are completely different into 155 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: in a ten year total return, Target gets it. Calls 156 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: has been a disaster, right, And we can talk more 157 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: about the two distinct stories, but they're responding to the 158 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: same macroeconomic backdrop. And Lorie, when you take a look 159 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: at this multifascinated backdrop that is not just one narrative, 160 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 1: what gives you conviction that, frankly, the market is right 161 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 1: that the FED is going to blink well before it 162 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,319 Speaker 1: raises rates to restrictive territory, which seems to be the 163 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 1: zeitgeist right now in markets. Well, the big contectrum is 164 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: we've talked about, and I've heard you talking about this 165 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:58,839 Speaker 1: morning as well, is that on the one hand, we 166 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 1: still have inflation with we could argue whether we've hit 167 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: peak inflation or not, but the numbers are still quite 168 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: eye popping. We all know that eventually that wears itself 169 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: out because the comps here over you get harder and harder. 170 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,199 Speaker 1: But that's happening at the same time that growth in 171 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: the from a macro standpoint is slowing. And so this 172 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: delicate balancing act is what the Fed's got to navigate, 173 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: what all central bankers have to navigate, and everybody is 174 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: afraid that they're going to get it wrong, and the 175 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: chances are that they will get it wrong. We actually 176 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: are a little bit more dubbish in terms of what 177 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: we think the Fed's going to do, and if they 178 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: move in the summer and then actually do take a 179 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: bit of a pause, then there's a chance that we 180 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:34,559 Speaker 1: get out of this without a recession. Laurie, thank you 181 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: for your perspective. As always. Lori Hano, the of State 182 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: Street Global Advices, this is an example of what you're 183 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 1: seeing on the street he maintains outperform on target, but 184 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: lowers the price target big time from a three oh 185 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: five down to two. Those are the microadjustments being made. 186 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 1: Patrick Palfrey is cohead of Quantitative Research and senior equity 187 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: strategistic Credit Squeeze and is looking at the macro adjustments. 188 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: How are you using the micro changes of your cell 189 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: side research team, Patrick, this morning, Well, when we talk 190 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: with our analysts and we go through the transcripts and 191 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: we look at where earnings estimates are moving, everything on 192 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: the fundamental front seems very much intact. Estimates continue to 193 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: rise their certain sectors communications in particularly what you're seeing pressure, 194 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:34,719 Speaker 1: but generally speaking, estimates are holding up quite well, including revenues. 195 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 1: Margins a little bit less weaker, but but still enough 196 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: to propride the earning sport in a meaningful way. Were 197 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 1: this is important, folks, because Credit Squeeze hit the ball out. 198 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: So we hit the ball out of the park eighteen 199 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: months ago with a wonderful Barbell strategy of bullishness. Patrick, 200 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: if you've got a constructive view like that, are we 201 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: over focusing on margins and not looking at a pretty 202 00:10:56,559 --> 00:11:00,319 Speaker 1: good or good revenue lift based on nominal g d P. 203 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: We'll talk it. I think you're absolutely right. Companies live 204 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: in a nominal world. I know, as as economist, individuals 205 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: like to talk about real activity and they're like the 206 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 1: piece out inflation. But companies, for the most part don't 207 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 1: really matter. They are oftentimes in most cases able to 208 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,839 Speaker 1: pass that on and we're seeing that come through with 209 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 1: revenues UH this year expecting to be plus tempers that 210 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 1: that's an incredibly strong number. So with revenues that strong, 211 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,439 Speaker 1: there's an ability to give up very incremental margin to 212 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: see the range pictures still be up eighth to nine percent, 213 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: and that is spectacular for this point in the cycle. 214 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 1: What are you counting on in terms of rates to 215 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 1: get you to that level in equities based in the 216 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 1: fact that not only do you have, yes, you've got 217 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:45,559 Speaker 1: denominal growth, but you also have a revaluation based on 218 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: higher inflation and frankly based on a FED willing to 219 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: raise rates much beyond what people had imagined a year ago. Well, 220 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: it's it's it's a great question. And I think really 221 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: what people are trying to understand there's a lot of 222 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: pieces moving around here in our focus is really here 223 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 1: on valuation that's really where the biggest distortions were. At 224 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: the beginning of the year, we started with the twenty 225 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,719 Speaker 1: one point five multiple. We're down to a sixteen point five. 226 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 1: That's roughly in line with long term averages. But more importantly, 227 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 1: expensive companies were extremely expensive, and that's where all the 228 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: pain has been. You see that in secular growth themes, 229 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: you see that in technology and communications. When you look 230 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: outside of those groups, valuations look a lot more reasonable 231 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: if the pain looks a lot less meaningful in those groups. 232 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: This has been a valuation rerating because of higher interest rates, 233 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: and that's a meaningful part of the discussion, which sounds 234 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: all very logical, and it's easy to then come on 235 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 1: and say, look, if I like those stocks before they've 236 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 1: been on sale, let's buy them. But it doesn't count 237 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: for the behavior of investors who see their statements and say, 238 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: holy cow, we've got to get rid of this. We've 239 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: got to actually start selling. We haven't seen those kinds 240 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: of mass sales. How much of an over suits the 241 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: downside could we see before we get to what you 242 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 1: expect to be a rally. Well, I think we're pretty 243 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: much getting close to that bottom now, Like like we 244 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: piloted earlier in the show. Right now is really where 245 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 1: the SMP is down historically, and and bear bear markets, 246 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: we see it down a little bit more. But that 247 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: tends to be recessionary. Right now, we have an incredibly 248 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: strong economic outlook. Certainly inflation is a concern and I 249 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: agree with that. But right now, nominally GPS expect to 250 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 1: be nine percent this year with real gene being three percent. 251 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: That doesn't feel reflection, That doesn't feel recessionary to me. 252 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: This is really important folks that are hearing here, this 253 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 1: nominal versus real argument. Patrick. Let's say we've got a 254 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: nominal glide path. I'm going to call it a harmonic 255 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 1: You go from nine percent as you stayed, to four 256 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 1: and a half percent. Maybe we get down to two 257 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: and a quarter percent at some point japan like. But 258 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: within that time frame, corporations adjust and they adjust use 259 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: of cash. What are you, as optimists feel use of 260 00:13:56,480 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: cash will be starting now into this summer, and then 261 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:07,439 Speaker 1: there's a budget outlook the corporation's frame for two thousand three. Well, 262 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: you know, companies are always very rational. What's how they 263 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 1: deploy their capital? Right now, we've seen shifts towards the dividends, 264 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: we've seen increasingly shifts towards five backs. We've also seen 265 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: a shift towards capex. I think all three of those 266 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: areas are going to continue to see growth. We're seeing 267 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: areas like dividends and like in capex get rewarded a 268 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: lot more than five backs. So companies shifting that way 269 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: are going to likely see better returns than perhaps going 270 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: directly towards five backs. But there's ample capital on many 271 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: of these companies, particularly large cap companies, given how strong 272 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: for capitalism, were expected to continue to use that well. 273 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: A router way to ask Tom's question is they could 274 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 1: start to lay off people in order to save costs 275 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: in order to increase their margins, especially as you get 276 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 1: the likes of Amazon and Walmart talking about how basically 277 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: they have too many people paid too much. Based on 278 00:14:57,040 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 1: the shift in appetite by consumers, I think as long 279 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: as the demand is their companies are staffing to meet 280 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 1: the level of demand. They're not staffing to meet stock 281 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: market gyration. So yes, the markets down, and I think 282 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: investors are assuming that's going to impact company's decisions. But 283 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: a company doesn't say I'm not going to need your 284 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: order because my stock is up. They say, no, you 285 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: want an order, I'm going to supply you with that order. 286 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: Depending on how much demand declines from here, that's ultimately 287 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: to depend on how much tapping they need. Right now, 288 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: the GDP backdrop still remains quite wherebust. Labor market remains 289 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: incredibly tight. Does that weaken incrementally, perhaps, But I don't 290 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: see that as being a huge catalyst in the story here. Actually, 291 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: just to jump in because I think this is really important. 292 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 1: I know that companies don't face what they need to 293 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 1: supply the company with face on what's handing in the 294 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: equity market. But I would say some of the C 295 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: suite right now they are worse calling their own company 296 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 1: than some people are on this show calling this market. 297 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: And that's been the problem. These companies have set them 298 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: sunds up for the demand of last year, and it's 299 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 1: not there anymore. We saw that with Target, we saw 300 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: that with Amount was sort with Amazon. Patrick, We've got 301 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: some stuff to work through here, don't you agree? I 302 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: do think we agree, And I think there's areas of 303 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: market that are particularly under pressure. Discrection areas is an 304 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: area that's probably going to be weaker. I think technology 305 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: is area that's going to be weaker as well. I 306 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: think investors need to be selective and when where they 307 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: look at the opportunities for companies. I mean, we're we're investing. 308 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: We're encouraging investors to look at cyclical oriented companies like energy, materials, industrials, 309 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: things that benefit more from this backdrop and are less 310 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 1: exposed to some of the issues that are happening perhaps 311 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 1: with technology and and and with some of the issues 312 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: with the consumer at the moment. Great to catch on 313 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: Patrick as always to get your your perspective and send 314 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 1: out best to Jonathan as well. Patrick Putrey the credit 315 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: sways this should be a three hour discussion. His ability 316 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 1: in our international relations linked to our economy is formidable 317 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: with his work at Goldman Sex International for years. Robert 318 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: Harman's US now a tite of an advisor and a 319 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: course of service to the nation in the State Department. 320 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: Ambassador Hormats, I want to cut to the chase right now. 321 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 1: I am hearing in every interview we will see a 322 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: defense build out by Germany. We will see a defense 323 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: build out by the United States of America. The President 324 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: waltzes off to the Pacific rim. What do we need 325 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: to rebuild in the Pacific, to show the flag in 326 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: an appropriate manner. Well, two things. One, I'm glad he's 327 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,959 Speaker 1: doing this now because I think there was a feeling 328 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,159 Speaker 1: in the Pacific, in some countries at least, that we 329 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 1: were so preoccupied with Ukraine and Europe that we had 330 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: more or less forgotten about the Pacific. This trip will 331 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: demonstrate that we have not forgotten, that we realize that 332 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 1: it's important. Second, he's got to get this set of 333 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 1: alliances organized. And there's been a lot of talk about 334 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: coopera Aracian coordination, but there really hasn't been much progress 335 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: on on trade, UM, the cooperation between the United States, 336 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: Japan and Australia, New Zealand UM are all all these 337 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: are important, and he has got to demonstrate that this 338 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 1: is a sustainable alliance. Pulling out of t p P 339 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: was one of the worst possible things we could have done, 340 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: because it showed not only a trade set of actions 341 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 1: that was a pulling, but it showed that we really 342 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 1: were not committed to a sustainable embassador. I want to 343 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: get through this quickly because Lisa's got some really important 344 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 1: questions away from this. This is your wheelhouse all Republicans 345 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: and Democrats are against t p P. My guess is 346 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 1: there against Indo Pacific. Let's go granular to the reported 347 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 1: victory of Marcos Jr. In the Philippines and what we 348 00:18:56,400 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: do at Subic Bay and at Clark how and we 349 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 1: shift our modern behavior back to what you and I 350 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: knew in our ute. This is a critically important point. 351 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: They're the way to look at Asia is there two 352 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 1: island chains. One is the one that's very close to China. 353 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: The Chinese really have increased their domination over that with 354 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,439 Speaker 1: their small islands and their new air force spaces that 355 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: they put in. We have to demonstrate that we have 356 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: credibility in that so called second island chain, which is 357 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: the Philippines, which is the Marianas, Guam and Um Australian 358 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 1: New Zealand. We have to show that we are strong, 359 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 1: a strong presence there and working with the Philippines, which 360 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: is critically important. It was in World War Two, it 361 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,119 Speaker 1: is now and that's going to be I think extremely 362 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 1: important to demonstrate that we can work with young Marcos 363 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 1: and and develop our main structure which was as you know, 364 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: virtually eliminated. But how optimistic are you that the political 365 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: noise will be able to dovetail the national security issues 366 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 1: of shifting around some trade partnerships at a time when 367 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 1: inflation is very much at the forefront and people are 368 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: more concerned about how quickly prices are rising as a 369 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: result in part at least for some of the supply 370 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 1: chain disruptions and realignments. A very good point. I mean, 371 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: the presidents in a difficult spot. On one hand, it 372 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 1: is clear that a lot of the tariffs that we've 373 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: imposed on China do contribute. They're not the main contributing factor, 374 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: but they do contribute to higher prices in the United States. 375 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,919 Speaker 1: And yet if the president were to appear to be 376 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: weak on that, it would look like he was weak 377 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: on on China. The priority here, it seems to me, 378 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: is to deal with the inflationary issues. We can demonstrate 379 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 1: that we're still resolute on China by strength in our 380 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 1: alliances in the region, which gives the president more flexibility 381 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: to lower some of the tariffs on China, which really 382 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,439 Speaker 1: have not had any impact on China anyway, but certainly 383 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: have had an impact on prices in certain sectors in 384 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: the United States. So if he's if he's tough enough 385 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 1: and firm enough in building our alliances. It gives them 386 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: a little more wable room to take action to reduce 387 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: UH tariffs on certain Chinese items. And he needs to 388 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: develop these trade relationships that we threw away when we 389 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: got out of t p P. He's got to resurrect 390 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: those and make sure that we don't just talk about them, 391 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 1: that we have a firm and and sustain program of 392 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:52,479 Speaker 1: trade cooperation with these countries in the Indo Pacific. Well, 393 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 1: just real quick here, we just have a little bit 394 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 1: of time left. What grade would you give this administration 395 00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 1: in terms of reaffirming some of these alliances. M I 396 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 1: give them very high marks. I think the fact that 397 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 1: the president, now in the middle of what's going on 398 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: in Europe, is making a major trip to Asia is 399 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,199 Speaker 1: going to be very important. There's gonna be a G 400 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: twenty meeting coming up. Whether he goes is not clear, 401 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: but I think that anything he can do to demonstrate 402 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 1: with these friends and allies in the region um that 403 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:27,399 Speaker 1: we're back and credible is important. The one thing he 404 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,440 Speaker 1: also has to do is make sure that he can 405 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 1: get bipartisan support for sustaining this because a lot of 406 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 1: these countries say, well volume is going out there doing this, 407 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,679 Speaker 1: making this good trip. But if the house flips and 408 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,400 Speaker 1: if you get another administration a couple of years from now, 409 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: that could pull back American the alliances in the region. 410 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 1: So we have to show a not only that we're 411 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: doing this and we're and we're firm in doing it, 412 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 1: but be this is a sustainable proposition. You've got to 413 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: figure out how to deal with the Chinese shoes that 414 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 1: it really matters, really have no real impact on China. 415 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:09,160 Speaker 1: There has to be other stuff, which is particularly intellectual property, 416 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: trade secret Inbassador, I don't mean we are out of time. 417 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 1: We will continue this just discussion. Robert Harmas are particularly 418 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:21,199 Speaker 1: strong in the Pacific Rim with Tiaman advisers. This is 419 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:25,200 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live 420 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 1: weekdays from seven to ten a m. Eastern on Bloomberg 421 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 1: Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six to 422 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 1: nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 423 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance Podcast on 424 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on 425 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg