1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:11,719 Speaker 1: This is straight fire with Jason McIntire. What is up 2 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: straight fire? Fam, It's me Jason McEntire, Straight fire for Thursday, 3 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: October seventh. Then who doesn't love some October baseball? Uh? 4 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: Postseason in full effect? What a night in Major League Baseball. 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: The Dodgers walk it off in the bottom of the night. 6 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: Just traumatic, fun, excitement, the bedlam, the chaos out here 7 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 1: in l A last night was phenomenal. No, I did 8 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: not go to the game. Yes, I had some buddies 9 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: who went. I opted to play soccer because, as some 10 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 1: of you know, I'm in a dad's soccer tournament this weekend. Um, 11 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 1: I had to get in some run. If you want 12 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: a funny story that's not Dodgers related, Your boys so 13 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: nervous about getting an injury because I think I told 14 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: you guys, I was playing pick up two weeks ago 15 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: with a buddy and he makes a move at the 16 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: top of the key, goes down and he loses the 17 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: ball and somebody picks up the ball, goes the other way. 18 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: He goes wit a wait, stop foul. Somebody kicked me 19 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 1: and everybody is like, oh and he Everybody kind of 20 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: knew because it was non contact he just lost the ball. 21 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: This guy played college basketball at Purdue all four years. 22 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: I mean I don't I think he started one year 23 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: or maybe one or a a half years whatever. Um, and 24 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: it was his achilles. So since then, I've been like 25 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,919 Speaker 1: extra safe doing all this stretching. And I found this 26 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 1: this thing called stretched lab. I don't know if it's 27 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: a chain or whatever, but you pay like money for 28 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: bucks and you go stretch it out. So I went 29 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: and stretched before I played soccer yesterday. I'm stretching today. Uh, 30 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: and then the tournaments this weekend, so I want to 31 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: be fully fully ready so I don't get injured. So 32 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: I did miss most of the game. I got home 33 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: just in time to watch the walk off, which is 34 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: pretty nice. Uh no injuries in soccer, which was even better. 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: But more importantly, that sets up Dodgers Giants at just 36 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: a phenomenal s Coast and LDS UM series that should 37 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: be really really excellent. UM. Already hit up some friends 38 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: for Hey, if you're going, me and uh, me and 39 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: my son would definitely join your guys and pay whatever, 40 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: because like, I'm not out there hunting for tickets. Um. 41 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: We did. My son and I did go to a 42 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: world series game. I think it was twenty eighteen. Um, seventeen, 43 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. Uh, and that was just a great experience. Um, 44 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: but it's always fun October baseball and listen, this is 45 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: a great week for sports. Uh. Coming up here shortly 46 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: on the podcast, we have a guy worked with Edward E. 47 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 1: Gross Um, very analytical. He was prop up this preview 48 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 1: of the baseball postseason last year. He's at than duel. 49 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 1: He was on a TV show with me um called 50 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 1: More Ways to Mint Win with Lisa Kearney, Um, Dave 51 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: Weaver and UM, it's it's fun. He's into analytics. So 52 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 1: he talks a lot of baseball. We recorded before the 53 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 1: Dodgers game yesterday, and um, he'll preview uh some of 54 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: the game's upcoming. He kind of likes the White Sox. 55 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: That's two guys this week who came on here really 56 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: vibing this Chicago White Sox. I personally, I'll give a 57 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: best bet for Thursday Night football at the end of 58 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 1: the pod. But me personally, I'm not betting on baseball 59 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: unless somebody tells me, hey, I got something here, because 60 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: I just haven't bet all year. I'm not just gonna 61 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: go start flushing money for fun, just to have action. UM, 62 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: I feel like I'd rather put money on Thursday night 63 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 1: football props, which I will do as I do every 64 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 1: Thursday on um Instagram stories in a couple of hours 65 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 1: before the game. But yeah, I give my Thursday night 66 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: best bet for Ramseyahawks should be a good one. Listen. 67 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: It doesn't get much better than this, folks. Okay, NBA 68 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: preseason started this week. You had Yankees Red Sox. Excuse me. 69 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: On Tuesday you had Dodgers Cardinals. On Wednesday, you have 70 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: Thursday Night football and two baseball games. Today you have 71 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: more baseball. Friday, I have college football, Saturday baseball than Sunday, 72 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: you have awesome slate of NFL and baseball. It's like 73 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: this is just an awesome week for sports. I hope 74 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 1: you guys are strapped in and ready without further ado, 75 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest, Edward Egross of More Ways 76 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: to Win and Bally's Sports. Fox Sports Radio has the 77 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 1: best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of 78 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within 79 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app search f s R to 80 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 1: listen live. Jason likes to think he knows everything when 81 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: it comes to sports. I know what sports dance want, 82 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 1: but for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. 83 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a guy. 84 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: He knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into straight fire. 85 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: You remember him last year previewed the baseball playoffs with us, 86 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: and he's now in l A. He has made the 87 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 1: trek from Texas out to the sunny Los Angeles. He 88 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: teaches at Pepperdine. He does the FanDuel show More Ways 89 00:04:57,960 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 1: to Win with Lisa Courney show. I was on. That's 90 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 1: how I got to know Ed. And he's working for 91 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: Bally's Sports as well. Big time Gambler analytical guy Edward E. 92 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: Gross Ed. How are you doing well? Doing well? Love 93 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: and life in Los Angeles. I wish you could have 94 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: convinced me to come out here sooner, and you know, really, 95 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: you know, put put the hammer down there because I'm 96 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: having a blast. Yeah. It's funny every single person once 97 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: you get out here, within six months you're like, damn, 98 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 1: what why wait so long? And I know and are 99 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: a lot of people were your friends in Texas being 100 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 1: like you don't want to go to California? All those 101 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: weird crunchy people and Hollywood types and did you get 102 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: a lot of that? And then you get out here 103 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: and you're like, yeah, this is awesome kind of you know, 104 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: certainly the stigma was there that I had to kind 105 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 1: of overcome. I think the bigger thing for me was 106 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,479 Speaker 1: the distance, being so far away from everyone else. That 107 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: was probably the bigger issue that that a lot of 108 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: people brought up, because yeah, being in Dallas for so long, 109 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: have a lot of friends their families in Louisiana, and 110 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 1: the big thing was why do you want to be 111 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 1: out there? And I think also too when you hear about, 112 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: say the fires or the earthquakes or things like that, 113 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: that those things happen all the time, and yeah, you 114 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: need to be aware of it, and you need to 115 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 1: have plans in place if something happens. But every area 116 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: has a problem. You can have hurricanes and parts of 117 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 1: the country tornadoes, yes, you know, winter storms, things like that. 118 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: California is no different as far as buffering itself from 119 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: whatever problems may exist. But once you get past that part, 120 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 1: the people have been super nice. The weather has been unbelievable. 121 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 1: I finally have a rhythm as far as where I 122 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: need to be and where to go in, places to eat, 123 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 1: things to do. Yeah, it's funny. My my parents since 124 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 1: we got out here have expressed interest, like I'll put 125 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: the earthquakes. I'm like, listen, you're in Florida. You do 126 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 1: know it's a hundred degrees in human for like four 127 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: straight months, maybe five, you know. And then as you said, 128 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: tornadoes other places, hurricanes, like everywhere's got problems, unrest in 129 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 1: the Pacific Northwest wherever. Um. But again, at least you 130 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 1: can be by the beach out here. Anyways, all right, 131 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: let's get to gambling. Everybody wants to know. First of all, 132 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: I we're not going to talk too much about my Yankees. 133 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: We record this on Wednesday. They lost last night. It's 134 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: over for them. I'll be rooting heavily for the Raise. 135 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: If memory serves, you were a big raise guys a 136 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: couple of years ago when they were analytically driven and 137 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: made a run. Um. But I do want to talk 138 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: about the big games tonight. White Sox Astros obviously a 139 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: massive one, and then Red Sox raised any leans in 140 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: the series or to to jump off things for for 141 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: Game one and either one. Yeah, as far as the 142 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: series is concerned, I feel comfortable with the dog here, 143 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: going with the White Sox over the Astros. One of 144 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: the big factors that I look at as far as 145 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: predicting postseason success, because the postseason very much is different 146 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: than the regular season on a variety of fronts. But 147 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: one of the big factors is bullpen war. Bullpenny are 148 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: a bullpen, advanced stats, whatever you're looking at. That's what 149 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: I care a lot about. It's one of the reasons 150 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: why I backed the Rays last season considerably turned out 151 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: well for them, except the little you know thing happening 152 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: in Game six. That the important thing is bullpen war 153 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: matters a good bit and should be stressed as far 154 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 1: as any kind of postseason predicted that you're putting together. Okay, 155 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 1: wait time out. Why bullpen war versus starting pitching? Uh At? 156 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: You know a slugging percentage on base Why bullpen war 157 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: number one? Well, it's it's not there for me because 158 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: you are making many more chess match kind of moves, 159 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: uh in a series. And you know, especially in today's baseball, 160 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 1: starting pitchers are not going nearly as deep as they 161 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: used to, and you're gonna have starters come in and relief. 162 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: You're going to have sort of your fourth or fifth guy. Uh, 163 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: you know, come on in various places, especially if you're 164 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: getting to the deciding games, say like the game five 165 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: of a d of an LDS or the game seven 166 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: of an LCS or World Series, you see a lot 167 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: of wacky pitching moves and so because you're basically having 168 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: an all hands on debt kind of mentality, which you should, 169 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: the what happens with those relievers matters that much more 170 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: than say, expecting a starter to go six or seven 171 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: even if say he doesn't necessarily have his best stuff, 172 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: and so reliever war is that much more important than 173 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 1: say what it normally would be in the regular season. 174 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,319 Speaker 1: It's why I backed the Rays last year. I still 175 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,079 Speaker 1: think the Rays are gonna be pretty good this go around. 176 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 1: But another team I like, it's the Chicago White Sox. 177 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: When you look at fangraphs war the Rays, I think 178 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: our first seven point nine wins above replacement White Sox 179 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 1: are at seven point eight, just a tenth of a 180 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,199 Speaker 1: win behind them. Uh. And that's in large part because 181 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: of Liam Hendricks more than fourteen ks per nine innings pitch. 182 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 1: Not an overpowering fastball by him, but the placement for 183 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: him is amazing. They also picked up Craig Kimberl for 184 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: relief work, not necessarily as the big closer for them, 185 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 1: but that matters a good bit. Uh. You know, Hendrick's 186 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 1: second best expected Whoba of any picture in baseball, but 187 00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: just behind Jacob deGrom. That bulb in is absolutely stout 188 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 1: and it's gonna matter a good bit, especially against a 189 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: scary offensive lineup. As far as the Astros are concerned, 190 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: I think the White Sox would pull this off. Now 191 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 1: you said Whoba, I confess to not knowing what that is. 192 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: And I will say this, there's a lot of new 193 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: gamblers who listen to this pod um e p A 194 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 1: in the NFL is one I don't dive into much, 195 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 1: but I'm starting to hear I heard it some last 196 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: year and now I'm hearing it a lot this year. 197 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 1: But I don't know, like wOBA, can you tell the 198 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: audience what that is or where they should seek it out? Yeah? 199 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: Absolutely so, wolba Is think about it like slugging percentage. 200 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: So you know we'll start there slugging percentage. A single 201 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 1: is worth one, a double's worth two, treble's worth, three 202 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 1: home runs or four, and then you're divided by the 203 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: total number of at bats. Wolba says, Okay, maybe a 204 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 1: double isn't worth quite two, maybe a triple isn't quite 205 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: worth three because sometimes you don't score, or maybe there 206 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: are ballpark factors that matter, or you know, the pitching 207 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: you go up against, or their league factors. As far 208 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 1: as a league that is more offensively driven or more 209 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 1: picture friendly, whatever it is, wOBA says, Okay, we tweet 210 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: those coefficients, uh slightly. What you multiply a double by, 211 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 1: which multiply a home run by, and then you get 212 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: a truer representation of overall offensive success. So it's just 213 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: a little more precise than say, slugging percentage. Yeah, And 214 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: what I do is I take it one step further 215 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: and I say, Okay, Woba's great, but I also want 216 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 1: something that's more predictive that's going to tell me, you 217 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 1: know that next step. Okay, you may have a good wOBA, 218 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: but are you gonna have a good wOBA tomorrow? Are 219 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: you gonna have a good one for the postseason next year? 220 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,839 Speaker 1: Whatever it is. And when you take a look at 221 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: sort of those physical elements like exit velocity, launch angles, 222 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: sprint speed, those kinds of things, and you bake that 223 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 1: into say, probabilities of getting a double, triple, home run, 224 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: whatever it is, then you get expected wOBA and that 225 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: tends to be more predictive than say your basic box 226 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: score stats that you finagle a little bit if you're 227 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: in there. Yeah, And predictive is the key word to 228 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 1: all of this, because, like, like you said, like anybody 229 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: can break down a box score and look at the numbers, 230 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: but what which ones of them are predictive? Is there 231 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: anything in the n L on the predictive side? Obviously 232 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 1: the White Sox you seem to like a lot. What 233 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: about in the n L anything on Braves, Brewers, Braves 234 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 1: and Brewers is interesting because when you look at the Brewers, 235 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: you know, we talked, you know, I know Baseball has 236 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: talked a good bit about sort of this hot street 237 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 1: that the Cardinals went on going into the postseason. But 238 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: when you look at the time frame of say since 239 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: June one, it's the Brewers who have had the best record. 240 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: So the question is, Okay, what's your time window that 241 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: you care about in terms of streakiness. Do you care 242 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: about a team that won a bunch of games late 243 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: in the year, or do you want a team with 244 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: a better overall record than everyone else after some sort 245 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: of key cutoff date June one might make the most sense. 246 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:00,440 Speaker 1: And so why not go with the Brewers? There starting 247 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: rotation really really strong, no doubt about that. The hitting 248 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 1: is a big question mark. You know, Corbin Burns, you know, 249 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: starting pitch for the Brewers unbelievable, one of the top performances. 250 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: Uh you know this season, Brandon Wood, Rub Freddy pral 251 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: To all great. The hitting is going to be a 252 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 1: big question mark for the Brewers. I think they can 253 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: manage that as far as one series is concerned. It's 254 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: not what I'm not necessarily comfortable with them as a 255 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: pennant champ because I need more hitting. I need to 256 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: see more Whoba out of the hitter zone. Yeah, but 257 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: at the same time, the pitching is enough for me 258 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: to feel comfortable that, yeah, they can at least take 259 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: one series. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk 260 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at 261 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the I Heart 262 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:50,719 Speaker 1: Radio app search f s R to listen live. Right. So, now, 263 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 1: obviously baseball has been a big one for you, but 264 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 1: you also do obviously NFL and college football. We'll get 265 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 1: to NFL in a minute, but I need to ask 266 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 1: about the biggest ledge football game this weekend. No, not 267 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: Iowa pen State, that's obviously big, but Texas Oklahoma. Being 268 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: a Texas guy, I will confess I have I want 269 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 1: on Texas earlier this year and then like an idiot, 270 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 1: I had them against Arkansas did not end well. And 271 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: Oklahoma one of the craziest stats and they're owing four 272 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 1: against the spread against FPS opponents. How do you handicap? 273 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: What are they calling it these days? The Red Rivers, shootout, 274 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: the rivalry? What what? What's the terminology? I think it's 275 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 1: now the showdown? Showdown? Okay, got it? Yes? Oh no, 276 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: I I keep forgetting every year and then they change it, 277 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: and then if you don't change with it, then someone 278 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: will call you and exactly for the Cotton Bowl. No, 279 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: It's interesting because when you look at Oklahoma's offense. You 280 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: mentioned e p A briefly, well, Oklahoma's offensive EPA per 281 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: play is America twenty five isn't bad When you look 282 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: at the expectations for Spencer Rattler coming in with Heisman expectations, 283 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: being the favorite there in the market is a good 284 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: knob and we've played enough of a season to conclude that, Okay, 285 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: Spencer Rattler is not a bad quarterback, but is he 286 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 1: an elite, if not phenomenal quarterback. I don't know if 287 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: we can say that yet. Defensively, Oklahoma has had some 288 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 1: question marks to where they're getting into closer games than 289 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: perhaps they should. It's one of the reasons why, yeah, 290 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: can they beat Texas? Sure, I'm not necessarily concerned about that, 291 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 1: but are you backing Oklahoma the rest of the way? 292 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: I certainly wouldn't at this point, And if they found 293 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: if they wind up winning the Big Twelve, that may 294 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: be more an indictment on the state of the conference 295 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: than it is say anything else, because this is not 296 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 1: Oklahoma's best shot to go after a national championship, at 297 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 1: least not yet as far as this particular game is concerned. 298 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 1: The way I'm betting it is taking the under. And 299 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: this is not something that's really researched very much, you know, 300 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: over the course of the Red River Showdown, rivalries something 301 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: or other. But what I have done and what I 302 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: have noticed though, is that there's always at least one, 303 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: if not both, teams coming in with a phenomenal offense, 304 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: or at least a highly touted offense. Oklahoma has had 305 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 1: it for a few years. Texas has had it in spurts. 306 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: It's always been there and it's always led to a 307 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 1: high total, and it's always seemed to me like it 308 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: underperforms as far as that's concerned, and especially with the 309 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: state of this game, I am more comfortable taking the 310 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: under because I think what Texas wants to do is 311 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: run the football a lot, uh with Robinson the running 312 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: back that they yeah, exactly, that is all they do. 313 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 1: But you know what, they can win games that way, 314 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: and they probably want to keep all out of Spencer 315 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: Rattler's hands enough, and so by limiting the number of possessions, 316 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: you're probably not gonna see as many points. I'm more 317 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: comfortable with the under. Yeah, it feels like the Unders 318 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 1: probably smarter because this could be the game. Oklahoma pops. 319 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: I know, it's like you're sitting there waiting and it's 320 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 1: not like you're sitting at the at the table in 321 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: Vegas just waiting for uh in the roulette wheel to 322 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: land on zero. You know, it's not quite like that. 323 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: But eventually Oklahoma is gonna put some put some numbers 324 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: on the board, right, I thought it was against West 325 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: Virginia and jeez, what it was just such a bad performance. 326 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 1: I wonder ed, do you think any of this n 327 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 1: I L stuff is starting to wear on some of 328 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 1: the players. Some of the big stars spent a rattler, 329 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 1: apparently got a ton of money, haven't totally performed yet, 330 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 1: and it's still early when we have five six weeks 331 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: in the in the books, do you think that is 332 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: a factor at all in what's going on with Oklahoma 333 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: or are just defenses catching up to Lincoln Riley's offense. 334 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 1: I don't necessarily know if defenses are catching up. I 335 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: just think that you know, something isn't clicking for whatever reason. 336 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 1: Um you know, whatever that is. I'm not exactly sure. 337 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: But the defenses have been exploitable up to this point, 338 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,440 Speaker 1: and there have been a couple of instances where they have. 339 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: But sometimes it's also a matter of having long fields, 340 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: necessarily getting defensive turnovers, those kinds of things, and eventually 341 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: just not scoring as many points that can happen. But 342 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 1: as far as the N I L stuff, one thing 343 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: that about that dynamic I think concerns me is not 344 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: so much to say like what the stars do. I 345 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 1: think they make their money and they keep their heads 346 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 1: down and then they do well, and I think that's fine. 347 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,360 Speaker 1: I do wonder, though, given how much hollabaloo there is, 348 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 1: if there are certain people who have expectations that they 349 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 1: were going to make a lot more than they really are. 350 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 1: And so it's sort of that mid tier where you're 351 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: coming in and thinking, oh, I'm going to be making 352 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,679 Speaker 1: you know, five figures, maybe close to six figures, and 353 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: then you're not, and sponsorships aren't exactly rolling in, or 354 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: if they are, they're offering you a couple of bucks 355 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: here and there. I got to think that that disappointment 356 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: might affect quality of play, maybe a little bit of 357 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 1: self confidence, but that's not necessarily something I'm expecting from 358 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: the star players, the guys that we're gonna be talking 359 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: about on a regular basis. It's that mid tier that 360 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 1: maybe I have more concerns about as far as the 361 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: n I l and she is concerned. But you know, 362 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 1: does some does money change somebody? Well, fame can change people. 363 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 1: Money can change people, sure, But I also believe in 364 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 1: the infrastructures of certain college football programs like an Alabama, 365 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 1: like an Oklahoma to where they're able to keep you know, 366 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: their star players level headed and it doesn't become that 367 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: big of a deal. Also props for using the word hullabaloo. 368 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 1: Is it hullabaloo or hullaboo hulla hullabalu. Well done. Yeah, 369 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 1: I think that's the first time it's ever been set 370 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: on the spot. I was just in my brain. He clicked, Um, 371 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 1: all right, so let's go. Do you have anything on 372 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 1: Iowa Penn State? Because it feels like everybody's trying to 373 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: outthink the room. Last week, I was on the outthink 374 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 1: the room with Hey, Wisconsin, Michigan. I gotta go with 375 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 1: Wisconsin here. There's no way they're that bad. Michigan stinks 376 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: blah blah blah Michigan. Um. It kind of feels like 377 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 1: people are saying, hey, Penn State's gotta be the side here. 378 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: I was kind of fraudulent. I know the defense is good, 379 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: but the offense come on anything on this one. Well, 380 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,640 Speaker 1: it's hard because the defense has been so good. Special 381 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: teams have been really good for Iowa as well, to 382 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 1: where the offenses had just short fields. And it doesn't 383 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 1: mean that the offense is fraudulent. It just means we 384 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: don't know, So okay, big question mark, Fine, do you 385 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: trust this defense to continue playing as well as it has? 386 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: I probably would at this point special teams which is 387 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: even more volatible. Sure, why not? Enough things are not 388 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: to mention? Two? I was at home and normally home 389 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 1: field advantage doesn't matter to me very much, but especially 390 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: when you're dealing with a tight spread of one and 391 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: a half that moved down from two and a half, 392 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,120 Speaker 1: that may be as simple as figuring out how many 393 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 1: points of home field advantage is worth in today's college football. 394 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 1: You can figure that out. You may be able to 395 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 1: to win this bet just by you know, coming up 396 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 1: with that particular number. And to me, I think home 397 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,479 Speaker 1: field advantage does matter a good bit in this one, 398 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: especially given how well Iowa State has started out of 399 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: the gate, going up against Penn State having big ten aspirations. 400 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 1: Ohio State already lost a game. Yeah, it was non conference, 401 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 1: but at least you have a little confidence and it 402 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,919 Speaker 1: keeps the fans generated uh energetic, So yeah, why not 403 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: take Iowa here? Yeah A Penn State um did look 404 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: good uh in the opener at Wisconsin, but as we've seen, 405 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: like Wisconsin is not a good football team. All right, 406 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: let's get to the NFL. Edward. Yeah, first of all, 407 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 1: how was the season gone? And now it used to 408 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 1: be that? After week forward the quarter mark, we can assess. 409 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:00,400 Speaker 1: I don't know if you throw out prior of last 410 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: season yet, but we have four weeks worth of data. 411 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 1: Will anything jump out at the page to you from 412 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: a gambling perspective through four weeks, whether it's road dogs, 413 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: the dregs of the league being really really bad. Last week, 414 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,479 Speaker 1: I think we had five underdogs win out right, anything 415 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: jump out first before we get to the actual week 416 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:23,679 Speaker 1: five games. Certainly, one big storyline to me is I 417 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: love the Aaron Rodgers narrative because it's the ultimate example 418 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 1: of not uh listening to the chatter and uh not 419 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 1: turning this into say like a you know, a gossip contest. 420 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 1: What matters a good bit more, you know, the overall 421 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:39,919 Speaker 1: quality of the talent coming in and making sure they 422 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: can play up to stuff. And yeah, terrible, terrible first game, 423 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: uh for the Packers, But they picked up and they've 424 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 1: been covering and they've been doing really well since then, 425 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:55,200 Speaker 1: and I, for the most part, expect that to continue. Yeah, 426 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,640 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers gonna slip up and have a you don't 427 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: have a clunker every now and again. But know all 428 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: the outspoken talk and is he going to stay there 429 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: those kinds of things. At the end of the day, 430 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: it's football, and he's not going to tarnish his own 431 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 1: legacy and you know, prevent himself from future opportunities by 432 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: tanking games or not playing as hard as he can 433 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 1: or throwing picks or whatever it is. It was fascinating 434 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,360 Speaker 1: to me after week one hearing all of these conspiracy 435 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,919 Speaker 1: theories and then him going out there and doing what 436 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 1: he normally does and then continuing to do so to 437 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: where it still felt like the market hadn't caught up 438 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,919 Speaker 1: to his overall true abilities. And I think there are 439 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: a lot of examples of that where you know, say 440 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 1: like the rookie quarterbacks, for instance, they were historically bad 441 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 1: coming out of the gate, Trevor Lawrencezack Wilson, etcetera. Then 442 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 1: a week four, oh, get better all at the same time, 443 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,720 Speaker 1: and you know what, that's normal. You're not going to 444 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,919 Speaker 1: have an entire class of rookies beat that bad for 445 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,160 Speaker 1: that long. At some point they're going to start figuring 446 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: it out. Now, you know what happens on the outside. 447 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 1: That's a different matter. But now we can finally start 448 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: to look at this objective and not try and find 449 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:05,640 Speaker 1: these random and tangible storylines to affect what are sharp 450 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,120 Speaker 1: numbers to begin with? That's good. Can I toss out 451 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,400 Speaker 1: of what are your what's your take on the narrative? 452 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: Building in Jacksonville? Urban's lost the locker room. Maybe they 453 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 1: fire him? Is he committed? He didn't ride the plane 454 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,680 Speaker 1: back to Jacksonville. Everybody's freaking out. Listen, I'm not getting 455 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: into it. But like, has any head coach ever been 456 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 1: in their hometown where they spent many many years and 457 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,679 Speaker 1: have businesses, uh and family and said, you know what, 458 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay here as opposed to fly home, Like, 459 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: I don't know if that has ever been an option before. 460 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 1: But at any rate, Jack's narrative Tennessee this week and 461 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 1: based on this basically the season on the line. Well, 462 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 1: the funny thing is they could fire urban Meyer in 463 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,159 Speaker 1: the next few minutes and they'd still be in a 464 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 1: good position to win that division. Yeah, yes, I love it. 465 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 1: Yeah the Titans. Look, I get there are questions at 466 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: wide receiver, you know, and especially with injuries to the 467 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: two key ones. Yeah, that's going to affect things. But 468 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:04,199 Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill was pretty turnover prone to begin with. You 469 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,160 Speaker 1: look at his numbers last year. Yeah, he was able 470 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 1: to escape, uh you know a lot of clunkers, you know, 471 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: by not having you know, turnover worthy throws turned into interceptions, 472 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 1: and the play action game was always good to him. 473 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: Now all of a sudden it's not. But again, the 474 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: advance advanced metrics were pointing to this that at some 475 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: point things are gonna fall back down to reality. And 476 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: that's exactly what's happened to the Titans. And look, I 477 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,439 Speaker 1: love the running game. I think Derrick Henry's phenomenal, one 478 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: of the great running backs we've ever seen. But you 479 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 1: cannot consistently win football games even if he's you know, 480 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,239 Speaker 1: rushing for a d again, you just can't do it. 481 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 1: You gotta compliment the rushing attack, and at this point 482 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,920 Speaker 1: they're just unable to do such things. So knowing this 483 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 1: and then knowing the disaster that's going on in Houston 484 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 1: and in Indianapolis, you know, son quarterback issues. Yeah, Jacksonville 485 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 1: could make a change at head coach and still be 486 00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: in contention for this division. Don't let whatever concerns you 487 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 1: have about divisional standings effect what you should do as 488 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,360 Speaker 1: far as the right thing is concerned at your head 489 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: coaching spot. Yeah, it looks like the line for Tennessee 490 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: Jacksonville is four at some of the perceived sharper shops, 491 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: four and a half at some of the other ones. 492 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 1: Um I wont I mean do you think professionals would 493 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 1: come in on Jacksonville here the big money bets. It's possible. 494 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: It's certainly possible. Um I probably would have liked to 495 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: have seen a little bit more, uh you know, from 496 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, even though he certainly did a good bit 497 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 1: and week for him and he had one of the 498 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,640 Speaker 1: higher QBR totals, uh you know from the past week, 499 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: which is great. But and also to like this Tennessee 500 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,439 Speaker 1: defense hasn't stopped very much up to this point, and 501 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 1: so this may be another opportunity for Trevor Lawrences take 502 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 1: a step forward wide receiver great in Jacksonville. Lawrence has weapons. 503 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,160 Speaker 1: Probably want a little bit more out of the running 504 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 1: back spot. But at the same time, you have enough there, 505 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 1: the infrastructure is enough to feel comfortable. Now part of 506 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,160 Speaker 1: the problem with me and say, like what urban Meyer 507 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 1: is shown through four weeks. I mean you remember that stuff, 508 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: sort of that zone read that Trevor Lawrence had in 509 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 1: the Thursday Night game. You know, those are the kinds 510 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,680 Speaker 1: of things that kind of scratch your head as far 511 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 1: as Okay, we need to see the innovative mind of 512 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,679 Speaker 1: Urban Meyer, and sometimes we don't. Is it because you're 513 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 1: not comfortable with Trevor Lawrence yet and you're trying to 514 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 1: take that next to forward? Does your game not translate 515 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:24,119 Speaker 1: to the NFL? I don't know, but I think the 516 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 1: play design is concerned. But here is an opportunity, uh, 517 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: you know, with an indivisional game to possibly get something 518 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: close and maybe pull off an upset one. Brian Schottenneimer, 519 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 1: I believe is the OC in Jacksonville, and everybody who 520 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,439 Speaker 1: knows the Jets my team knows that he is a 521 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,880 Speaker 1: nightmare and even Seattle Teahawks fans know that as well. 522 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 1: Anything One game of the Year ED will wrap up 523 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 1: with first Buffalo Casey. My inclination here is to take 524 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 1: Casey if it's under a field goal at home. Um, 525 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: I'm sure I'm not really a trend better, but I'm 526 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,640 Speaker 1: sure you've seen the numbers teams that shut a team 527 00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 1: out one week and then come back the next week. 528 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,479 Speaker 1: There's some usually some regression. And I think at some 529 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: point the Chiefs defense has to improve. Right again, I'm 530 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,400 Speaker 1: not waiting for it, but it's better than it has been, 531 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 1: right as soon as flank flank Frank Clark returns, certainly. 532 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: But you know, when you're evaluating defense, what matters a 533 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 1: good bit more is who you play, not necessarily overall 534 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 1: defensive ability. And you know, I think you know, the 535 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 1: Sunday night game against the Ravens, it was a great 536 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,239 Speaker 1: example of that. I mean, the Chiefs had, you know, 537 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 1: a lot of turnovers, takeaways sort of fall in their laps, 538 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,199 Speaker 1: you know, with Tyron Matthew uh and and still it 539 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,959 Speaker 1: wasn't enough. Um And so I look at this and go, 540 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: Josh Allen is playing really, really well. Uh yeah, clunker 541 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 1: out of the gate. But he's doing a lot of 542 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: great things Chiefs Pat Mahomes, you know, maybe he's slightly regressing, 543 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,160 Speaker 1: and say, you know, the phenomenal you know, last couple 544 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 1: of seasons, but Tyreek Hill is spectacular. Travis Kelsey is 545 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: still arguably the best tight end in the game. Right now, 546 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 1: This does seem to me like a shootout. Who will 547 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 1: you know, basically last score wins. Maybe this kind of game. 548 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,439 Speaker 1: I'm super excited about it, far more excited about this 549 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: game than say the last Sunday Night game. But this 550 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: may be a kind of coaching matchup where you're trying 551 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 1: to time it to where you have the ball last, 552 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 1: and who do you trust more as far as the 553 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,880 Speaker 1: coaching matchup is concerned, that's a really tough one for me. 554 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,959 Speaker 1: Much as I love and respect Andy Reid and what 555 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 1: he's been able to do. Uh, you know, is he 556 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 1: going to be out coaching a game like this? I 557 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,360 Speaker 1: think that's a fair question to ask. That's true. Wow, 558 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 1: But well that's what I didn't see that. Like, Buffalo's 559 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 1: infrastructure is amazing in terms of step motion, play action, 560 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 1: those kinds of things. And you know this maybe coach 561 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 1: one A and one B as far as your power 562 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 1: rankings are concerned. And so, you know, I don't feel 563 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 1: like I'm dogging on anybody. I mean, this is going 564 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 1: to be one of the great quarterback coaching matchups that 565 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: we're going to see all season long. I just you know, 566 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 1: you look at the quarterbacks Buffalo's face, right, So Ben 567 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 1: Roethlisberger in the opener. We know he's not good. He's washed, 568 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: Uh Davis Mills last week to Kobe Brissette in the 569 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:14,719 Speaker 1: shutout of Miami. And the other quarterback was Taylor Heineke. 570 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 1: And you put all those guys together and they are 571 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 1: probably all like bottom ten, bottom twelve quarterbacks in the 572 00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 1: league right now, and now you're facing basically number one. 573 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 1: In my homes, I just I wonder about that Buffalo defense. 574 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 1: I would look at Casey or nothing there. Personally, I 575 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: think that's fair. Um. You know, again, this does just 576 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: sort of feel like a back and forth. I mean, 577 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,160 Speaker 1: if I'm going to play the game, I'd probably take 578 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 1: the over. I really think both offenses will shine here. 579 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 1: That's that's probably my play here, because again, it feels 580 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 1: like last score wins however that occurs. Uh. You know, 581 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,960 Speaker 1: is there one coach you necessarily trust to time it 582 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,840 Speaker 1: to where you have the ball last? Is that Andy Reid? I? 583 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: I don't know. I I have some real questions about that, 584 00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 1: in part because the fourth down decision aking for Andy 585 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 1: Reid has always been a question for me. They don't 586 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 1: go for it as often, and it's surprising because you 587 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 1: have Pat Mahomes and Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey. You've 588 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 1: got this phenomenal you know offense, some of the great 589 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 1: playmakers we've ever seen, and you still opt for field 590 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 1: goals more often than you should. And I look at 591 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 1: those things and sort of question, you know, the whole 592 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 1: thing so to speak, knowing you're going to be in 593 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 1: a shootout, are you going to time it out and 594 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 1: you know, have defensive plays ready to go to where 595 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 1: you're going to have the ball last score and then 596 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 1: have no time for the other offense to score again, 597 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: that's the question you trust more in that spot? Yeah, 598 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 1: it's a fair question. Um, Buffalos still gotta proven it. 599 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: But the lets you say, the audience says, ed, hey, 600 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 1: give you a thousand dollars. You have to take a 601 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,480 Speaker 1: side in any game this week. That's the only bet 602 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: you're gonna make one side this week in the NFL. 603 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 1: Where are you putting that money? Oh? Boy? Side? Crack 604 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 1: sides are of course, tell the totals. Maybe you can 605 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 1: find a larger edge. Has been some movement on the totals, 606 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: but the sides are difficult. Where would you look this week? 607 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 1: M hmm? And this is where I have to sort 608 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 1: of remind myself what's going on and who's doing what. Yeah, yeah, 609 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 1: I got the lines of in front of me if 610 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 1: you want, If you have anything, I have them here too. Okay, 611 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 1: So you know that the Saints minus two and a 612 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:29,479 Speaker 1: half is interesting to me because while Taylor Heineke has 613 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 1: impressed me, Washington's defense has not, in large part because 614 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 1: they have not been able to generate a lot of 615 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,120 Speaker 1: negative e V through the blitz. And you would expect, 616 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: you know, a defensive line with that much talent to 617 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 1: be able to send an extra rusher and then you know, 618 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 1: completely recab it and it really hasn't happened yet past 619 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 1: defense in terms of e p A last I checked 620 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 1: as bottom half of the league. Not positive. I had 621 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: to don't check that, but especially going up against James 622 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 1: Winston and Sean pay, I feel like this could be 623 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,000 Speaker 1: a good bounce back game for the Saints on the road. 624 00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 1: I That's probably the one where I'm most comfortable. If 625 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 1: there is another one that I feel, you know, I'm 626 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,960 Speaker 1: also curious as far as like the quarterback situation in Denver. 627 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 1: What can we see with Teddy Bridgewater? Is he going 628 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,760 Speaker 1: to be healthy enough? Because there is a significant drop off. 629 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: Bridgewater is great. I think he really is great, and 630 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 1: especially with the receivers he has. Denver is a scary 631 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 1: team to me. But the drop off between he and 632 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 1: Drew Luck is substantial. And it's substantial enough to where 633 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 1: if I somehow know that it's going to be Drew 634 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 1: Lock playing that game or someone else, then I'm backing 635 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,960 Speaker 1: the Steelers. Yeah. I I It's tough to battle the 636 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 1: Steelers right now because they're so bad, but Drew Lock 637 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,920 Speaker 1: is even worse. All right, he is uh Edward E 638 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:55,160 Speaker 1: gross he Uh you can find his stuff. I mean 639 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 1: he's teaching in Pepperdine, which is pretty cool. What's the class, 640 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 1: by the way, intro to stats? Wow? Um, yeah, that's 641 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 1: pretty cool. And Pepperdine, of course located in gorgeous Malibu. Uh. 642 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 1: You could watch him on More Ways to Win. Um. 643 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 1: He's working for Bally's Sports doing gambling. Basically, he's everywhere. 644 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 1: Ed thanks a lot for the time and good luck 645 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 1: this weekend. Thank you appreciate all right. The only thing 646 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 1: better than sitting on your couch watching the game, he's 647 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 1: making money while you do it. Here's your best bet. 648 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 1: Good stuff from ed very smart individual. And we didn't 649 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,719 Speaker 1: really talk about Rams Seahawks, but I want to give 650 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,160 Speaker 1: out my best bet four Thursday night football and no, 651 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 1: listen you guys, any gambler. No, there's a thing called regression. 652 00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,080 Speaker 1: You run hot, you run cold. That's life. Nobody can 653 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 1: hit it the full season. It just doesn't happen. You 654 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,640 Speaker 1: could talk about it in Two for the Money with 655 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 1: McConaughey and Pacino. That's fun to talk about an act, 656 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 1: but the reality is that don't happen. And the fewer 657 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 1: games you bet, the better chances you will have because 658 00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 1: you will look for only where you'd find an edge 659 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,959 Speaker 1: of just tossing your money around because you have a feeling. 660 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 1: I personally, earlier in the week bet Rams minus one 661 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 1: and a half, but it had juice. It was at 662 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:09,520 Speaker 1: minus one nineteen, so it was it was like a 663 00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 1: hundred nineteen bucks to one. Um, it's up to two, 664 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,240 Speaker 1: and then there's some two and a half's out there. UM. 665 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 1: I'll talk to you through my logic. UM. I just 666 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,719 Speaker 1: I'm not a believer in this Seattle defense. I know 667 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,319 Speaker 1: they shut down trade Lance. I get it. I guess what. 668 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,840 Speaker 1: Trey Lance was not prepared for this, and he's Frankly, 669 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,560 Speaker 1: he's not a good quarterback. I'm just I really am 670 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 1: not feeling uh Trey Lance at least yet as a quarterback. 671 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,960 Speaker 1: I look at the Seattle defense and they got shredded 672 00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 1: by Ryan Tannehill who put it on him in the 673 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,040 Speaker 1: second half and overtime six point four yards per play, 674 00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,480 Speaker 1: and Kirk Cousins moved the ball at will against them 675 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 1: in the second half. And if you kind of played 676 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:51,880 Speaker 1: keep away either with running the ball, which Derrick Henry 677 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 1: did and which Dalvin Cook I'm sorry Alexander Madison did, uh, 678 00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 1: you could keep the ball away from Russell Wilson, and 679 00:34:58,520 --> 00:34:59,959 Speaker 1: that was what they were able to do. And see 680 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 1: Attle did nothing in the second half in both those games. 681 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 1: And if the forty Niners don't vomit all over themselves 682 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 1: fumbling the kickoff when it was I think seven seven, um, 683 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:14,839 Speaker 1: maybe that that doesn't flip like that. Obviously you toss 684 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:18,080 Speaker 1: in the Jimmy Garoppolo injury, uh, and and San Francisco 685 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:19,799 Speaker 1: never really had a chance. But this is just an 686 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,440 Speaker 1: overrated Seattle team. They're living on borrowed time with this 687 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,520 Speaker 1: legion to boom. They're long gone the home field advantage 688 00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 1: in Seattle isn't much. And um, I just want you 689 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 1: to look at the last few matchups between McVeigh and 690 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 1: Pete Carroll. The defense has dominated from the Rams. In 691 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:39,000 Speaker 1: the last four meetings with Seattle. They've sacked Russell Wilson 692 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:44,440 Speaker 1: one times, five, five, five, and six. He holds the 693 00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 1: ball along because they confuse him. They're not gonna get 694 00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:50,359 Speaker 1: beat deep. They play the two high safeties and there 695 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:55,719 Speaker 1: isn't a fear of concern of anybody consistently beating you underneath. 696 00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 1: And that's what the Rams do. They did it to 697 00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:02,120 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. We will will let you run the football, 698 00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,399 Speaker 1: go ahead, go ahead, Carson, whatever you want. We will 699 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,000 Speaker 1: let you catch the six seven eight yard passes, but 700 00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:09,680 Speaker 1: we're not letting you beat us deep. We're not giving 701 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 1: up the splash, play the locket for fifty, We're not 702 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,919 Speaker 1: giving up metcalf for s. And then offensively, the Rams 703 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,920 Speaker 1: move the ball at will because the Sea How defense stinks. 704 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,280 Speaker 1: So give me Matt Stafford coming off a loss, winning 705 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,640 Speaker 1: in Seattle and again home field advantage. We talked about it. 706 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,120 Speaker 1: I forget who was on here. It was either Baker 707 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago, maybe Rufus Peabody. But the 708 00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,640 Speaker 1: idea of home field advantage is just it just doesn't 709 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:37,680 Speaker 1: really mean what it used to. And give me the 710 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:42,560 Speaker 1: Rams going into Seattle and Matt Stafford, I know he 711 00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:46,200 Speaker 1: wasn't great last week against Arizona. By the way, Arizona 712 00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:49,120 Speaker 1: has a better defense in Seattle. Arizona has better players. 713 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 1: Although Arizona is beat up, I don't want anybody to 714 00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,920 Speaker 1: freak out, but go look at the Arizona Cardinals injury 715 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 1: report from Wednesday. They are missing a ton of guys. 716 00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:01,279 Speaker 1: Now it's Wednesday, Okay, maybe they need rest. This is 717 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:05,640 Speaker 1: a tough, very tough game, massive game against the Rams 718 00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,680 Speaker 1: that they just took the down um they're now the baby, 719 00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,600 Speaker 1: basically the best team in football. They're marked men um. 720 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 1: So maybe Arizona's resting up. But this NFC West is 721 00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,320 Speaker 1: just such a gauntlet. I I like the Rams to 722 00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:21,759 Speaker 1: bounce back and beat the Seahawks. Feels to me like 723 00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:27,280 Speaker 1: a twenty three seven twenty three something along those lines. 724 00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,399 Speaker 1: I would like it up to three, but at three 725 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:32,880 Speaker 1: you've kind of I mean, I guess I would like 726 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 1: it at two and a half at the max. But 727 00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,360 Speaker 1: at three, you gotta take Seattle, right a home dog 728 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 1: in the division, getting a field, well, you gotta take that. 729 00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:40,360 Speaker 1: So that's why I got one and a half. I 730 00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:41,920 Speaker 1: would take two and a half, but at three you 731 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,279 Speaker 1: probably gotta look at Seattle. Either way, it should be 732 00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:48,000 Speaker 1: a good game. Enjoy the baseball, enjoy Thursday night football, 733 00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:49,680 Speaker 1: and we'll talk to you tomorrow