WEBVTT - Max Wasserman on the Markets (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Time here nine minutes past the hour. Our guest is

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<v Speaker 1>Max Wasserman, Founder and senior portfolio manager of Miramar Capital. Max,

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<v Speaker 1>summarizing your notes, I'd say that you do see value

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<v Speaker 1>in the market in the form of some individual companies,

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<v Speaker 1>but at the index level, you don't or may not

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<v Speaker 1>see value at the moment because of some considerations. So

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<v Speaker 1>so you need to look beneath the hood and what

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<v Speaker 1>are you finding. Well, thank you for having me on.

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<v Speaker 1>What we're seeing is that with the interest rates going

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<v Speaker 1>up and the said tightening the money tire supply, it's

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<v Speaker 1>basically not good for growth stocks. And the index is

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<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred is a market gap weighted index, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's really been a proxy for the last five six

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<v Speaker 1>years for the NASTACK one hundred. So we see the

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<v Speaker 1>multiples on the NASDACK and on the SMP is still

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<v Speaker 1>too high in this environment. But when you look under

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<v Speaker 1>the hood and you look a little bit more broad based,

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<v Speaker 1>we see opportunities in a lot of their is. You

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<v Speaker 1>can see them in healthcare, we can see them in

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<v Speaker 1>the aftermarket auto replacement parts. We like in the defense area.

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<v Speaker 1>We're looking for companies as divid investors that are growing

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<v Speaker 1>their top line revenue, growing their dividends, and have the

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<v Speaker 1>ability to sustain in this market environment. Given what do

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<v Speaker 1>you have just said, what do you see as the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest risk and how do you hedge against that? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we don't. We don't hedge. We're long only

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<v Speaker 1>in our stock portfolio. But how you would defend yourself

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<v Speaker 1>is basically lowering the beta in the portfolio. Not to

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<v Speaker 1>be too technical, but when you have the high growth stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>or what we call the higher risk companies, you've got

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<v Speaker 1>to lower that exposure. So what we've done is we've

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<v Speaker 1>basically lowered our exposure to the NASDAC and in the

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<v Speaker 1>bond market, we shortened our duration because we're not fighting

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<v Speaker 1>with the FET. The FET has told us that they're

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<v Speaker 1>raising interest rates and they're going to continue, so we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to take them at their word. Now, with the

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary shock that we've seen, how easy is it to

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<v Speaker 1>find companies that are either steady with their dividend or

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<v Speaker 1>raising their dividend and not fear that because of this

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<v Speaker 1>huge dislocation, that that it could change quickly. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think you've got to always stay on top of these

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<v Speaker 1>companies and see what they're doing with the payout ratio

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<v Speaker 1>and seeing what they're doing, what they're dividend policy. But

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<v Speaker 1>for example, when you look at the defense companies, they're

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<v Speaker 1>having a tremendous year. Companies like General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin

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<v Speaker 1>which we have investments and have a tremendous year so far,

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<v Speaker 1>and we see their revenue still climbing. Because what people

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<v Speaker 1>don't realize in the defense industry, for example, it's a

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<v Speaker 1>political I mean, the demand is there and given the

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<v Speaker 1>fact there's so few of players and in this environment

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<v Speaker 1>where uncertainty, there's just more demand. And as Europe restocked

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<v Speaker 1>up their their armory, if you will, that's going to

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<v Speaker 1>bode well for us because we supply a lot of it.

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<v Speaker 1>When we look at companies like in the auto replacement area,

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<v Speaker 1>to give an example another way of an investment, like

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<v Speaker 1>Advance Auto Parts, we're looking at a company that is

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<v Speaker 1>basically twelve times earnings, has a dividend payout ratio of

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<v Speaker 1>like paying you about over four percent, and we think

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<v Speaker 1>they have plenty of cash on hand. So we like

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<v Speaker 1>companies with strong cash flow, great balance sheets, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>not looking for companies that stretch out to meet the dividend.

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<v Speaker 1>We want plenty of cash on the balance sheets to

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<v Speaker 1>cover them on the whole nikes. I mean, what assumption

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<v Speaker 1>to are you making about profitability? In three we talk

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<v Speaker 1>about companies still dealing with high inflation, markets still dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with supply chain issues. What does it all mean for

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<v Speaker 1>profit Well, I think you're gonna you're gonna have two

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<v Speaker 1>markets this year. You're gonna have the first quarter. The

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<v Speaker 1>first half is going to be dealing with the slowing economy,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think companies and earnings are not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a stellar So I think people are and they've

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<v Speaker 1>already been dealing with the supply chain issue. They've already

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<v Speaker 1>been lowering down their earnings estimates and dealing with the

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<v Speaker 1>cost inflation, and we think that's going to come to

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<v Speaker 1>fluition in the first half. That's why we think the

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<v Speaker 1>multiple on the SMP is still too high given the

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<v Speaker 1>earnings outbum So we think the first half of the

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<v Speaker 1>years still gonna be chopping. Given the second half of

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<v Speaker 1>the year, I think you'll see more clarification what the

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<v Speaker 1>FET is doing, and as you'll see inflation we think

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<v Speaker 1>will start coming under control more in the second half.

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<v Speaker 1>The pressures will ease on the companies, but we think

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<v Speaker 1>the first quarter is still going to be challenging two

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<v Speaker 1>companies with earnings, and you're already seeing that a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of great companies have basically been hit very hard due

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<v Speaker 1>to inflation and rising dollar, supply chain issues. So as

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<v Speaker 1>those ease going into the second half of next year,

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<v Speaker 1>we think it's gonna be a much better market. But

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<v Speaker 1>the FETE is still raising interest rates, You're still having

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<v Speaker 1>some supply chain issues, You're still having some uncertainty. So

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<v Speaker 1>that's where we think it's going to be chopping for

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<v Speaker 1>a little while longer. Do do you think the reopening

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<v Speaker 1>of China could mean an inflation problem is sort of

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<v Speaker 1>stoked a little further this year and that it may

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<v Speaker 1>take longer for central banks to get inflation under control. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a great question. That's what we've been really debating here.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot we thought that the FED was going to

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<v Speaker 1>change your policy in November December of last year. In

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<v Speaker 1>the fetus, it was transitory and when they did. Now

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<v Speaker 1>we believe the Fed, we believe that they will not

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily be cutting interest rates the second half the year,

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<v Speaker 1>which a lot of market analysts are looking for. We

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<v Speaker 1>don't see that happening as quickly. Mediumuggle neutral, but I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if they're gonna be cutting interest rates. And

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<v Speaker 1>with China opening up, that's more inflationary pressure. That's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>put pressure on oil, that's gonna put demand. Hopefully they

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<v Speaker 1>clears up supply chain. So we think we have a

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<v Speaker 1>little ways before the FED were to stop. So if

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<v Speaker 1>the Feds looking to raise another let's say a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>basis points, they may do it in increments of fifty

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<v Speaker 1>or quarter. But we don't see them doing an about

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<v Speaker 1>face this summer, like everybody else is predicting. So we

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<v Speaker 1>think it's as the China opens up, we think that's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna put more pressure on the FED to stay the

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<v Speaker 1>course they're on. So, Mike's what's the base case for

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<v Speaker 1>the US economy. I mean, we're seeing a spike in

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<v Speaker 1>layoffs at tech companies and bangs. Do you read that

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<v Speaker 1>as a signal for an impending recession or not? I

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<v Speaker 1>think the market it's whether or not where we feel it.

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<v Speaker 1>But the body markets saying that that the economy is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be slowing down. But I think what you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna see is it's going to be a reevaluation of

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<v Speaker 1>what the earnings are going to be for the SMP.

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<v Speaker 1>So right now people are looking for two twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>and earnings um for next year, and we think it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be more like around two hundred. So at

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred you're looking about still a seventeen multiple. So

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<v Speaker 1>we think you can see the multiple come down one

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<v Speaker 1>or two times. Again, it's a market weighted cap index,

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<v Speaker 1>so we think it's gonna be very challenging. Yes, we

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<v Speaker 1>think you could. You could see a recession, but the market,

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<v Speaker 1>i think is starting to discount that already. I think

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<v Speaker 1>what concerns us is the fact that everybody keeps thinking

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<v Speaker 1>this is going to do about face and that the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed's going to bail everybody out on the second half

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<v Speaker 1>by cutting interest rates. We're not so convinced that that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen. So we're cautioning people still stay away

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<v Speaker 1>from the high risk areas of the market. And we're

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<v Speaker 1>not convinced that you should be jumping out on the

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<v Speaker 1>yield curve yet. But we may be getting towards the

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<v Speaker 1>peak of inflation and the end of of higher rates,

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<v Speaker 1>and if you look at cyclical companies or if you

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<v Speaker 1>just look at say financials and energy, they're nowhere near

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<v Speaker 1>the lows of the year, and they've made some pretty

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<v Speaker 1>handsome moves here in the past couple of months. Is

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<v Speaker 1>that suggesting a trend that looks much better to say,

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<v Speaker 1>six months out. Yeah. I think energy specifically, as was

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<v Speaker 1>in such trouble for so many years that people just

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<v Speaker 1>forget you're on the verge of bankrupts either cutting their dividends.

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<v Speaker 1>We still think that's gonna The energy is on a

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<v Speaker 1>different cycle, we believe right now with the shutdown and production,

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<v Speaker 1>with the fact that the US energy policy is a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit all over the place, and the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>oil demand we think are going to stay with us

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<v Speaker 1>for a while, we could see energy staying at this

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<v Speaker 1>oil stand at these prices are to a hundred dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a barrel. That could be consistent through the year, regardless um,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a slowdown in the US because of trying to

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<v Speaker 1>comes back on the market that put up up pressure

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<v Speaker 1>on it. Industrials, we like it. We just like it selectively. Financials.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, financials has not been the greatest for the banks.

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<v Speaker 1>The banks have had a very challenging time and we

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<v Speaker 1>think maybe next year could be a little bit better

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<v Speaker 1>for them and evaluation perspective, and again as divid investors,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we like the three to four percent eiels

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<v Speaker 1>we're getting on major banks which have strong balance sheets,

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<v Speaker 1>so we look financials will be good. We just think

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<v Speaker 1>the area that's not going to be as strong, the

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<v Speaker 1>leadership is not going to re emerge as quickly is technology.

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<v Speaker 1>We think those multiples are still too hot. We're still

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<v Speaker 1>reading the leaves. Mix Wassaman, Founder and Senior portfolio manager

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<v Speaker 1>of Merrimount Capital, We thank you so much for your

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<v Speaker 1>insights today