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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest. Ashish Chanda is with US

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Speaker 1: founder and CEO of Crystal on the line from Singapore,

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Speaker 1: as thanks for being with us. A lot of the

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Speaker 1: focus here away from what we're going to get in

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Speaker 1: less than an hour now when it comes to the

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Speaker 1: Chinese data, is what the Fed may do next week.

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Speaker 1: We've seen a spikey in US treasury yields across the curve,

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Speaker 1: particularly at the short end. I think it's a fair

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Speaker 1: statement that the move next week is going to be

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Speaker 1: somewhat aggressive. Seventy five basis points seems to be the consensus.

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Speaker 1: Do you think we are kind of at risk right

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Speaker 1: now of seeing a lot more dollar strength or in

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Speaker 1: terms of the dollar story, have we kind of reached

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Speaker 1: a peak? So yeah, you're right, the seventy five business

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Speaker 1: points is pretty much baked in. It remains to be

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Speaker 1: seen what happens in the other two meetings because now

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Speaker 1: most of the street is expecting UH focus and to

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Speaker 1: possibly happen when this year, So dollar strength is definitely

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Speaker 1: stretched by. There could be more legs to it in

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Speaker 1: but we were thinking that it would be in its

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Speaker 1: last leg and there could be a production. If Fred

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Speaker 1: Dost take or reversal. For the latest data that's coming

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Speaker 1: out shows that all the strength has let people continue

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Speaker 1: at least for a couple of months. Can the FED

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Speaker 1: actually achieved that soft lanning where we avoid a recession,

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Speaker 1: Well that's a million dollar question. So what's happening is

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Speaker 1: that anything above four percent we believe could cause a

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Speaker 1: hard landing. So it's a touch and good situation. I

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Speaker 1: think some sectors in the USA problem the already in

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Speaker 1: the recession, but soft landing is still the likely case

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Speaker 1: if FED puts the brakes on hikes towards the end

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Speaker 1: of this year. So let's say if you have a

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Speaker 1: semi five five, that's a positive signal to the market

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Speaker 1: that the FED is not likely to be so ab

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Speaker 1: rescid next year, but remains on the data will come out.

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Speaker 1: So one of the things that we've also been looking

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Speaker 1: at is what's been happening with the Japanese here and

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Speaker 1: as it relates to the dollar or the yend stronger

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Speaker 1: today by quite a bit, where one nineties so on

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Speaker 1: the strong side of one three. Earlier in the week,

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Speaker 1: the concern was the possibility of intervention from the Bank

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Speaker 1: of Japan. Give me your sense now of what you're

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Speaker 1: you're looking at in terms of yen vsa VI the

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Speaker 1: green back, So dollar yen definitely is one of the

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Speaker 1: pairs which you use for funding a borrowing. Now, the

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Speaker 1: positioning over there is pretty pretty strong, so there is

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Speaker 1: a risk that different dollar long dollar try reverses, then

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Speaker 1: you could have a sharp pull back and that so

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Speaker 1: so I've got to be a bit more cautious on

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Speaker 1: the end versus let's say the other in currencies, just

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Speaker 1: because of the position that's there. So what about in

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Speaker 1: terms of what we're saying with the one and the

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Speaker 1: pboc s efforts there to really try and defend that.

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Speaker 1: And I guess that the importance here of that seven

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Speaker 1: to the dollar level, So I think the speed of

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Speaker 1: deficiation matters, But the psychological seven level, it hasn't reached

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Speaker 1: a couple of years back from the nine I think,

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Speaker 1: and that's not going to be a very big event anymore.

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Speaker 1: But the speed of depreciation is definitely something that the

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Speaker 1: central bands will like to keep an eye on. So

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Speaker 1: we think that yes, there will be more weakness of

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Speaker 1: the un and let's see how the data comes out.

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Speaker 1: But it's also then to the domestic demand in China

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Speaker 1: being disrupted with the COVID lockdowns. So definitely there is

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Speaker 1: more Hunan depreciation on the guds, but we don't think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a very sharp move beyond seven

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Speaker 1: because the POC is likely to be. One of the

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Speaker 1: stronger elements in the Chinese economy has been the exports sector,

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Speaker 1: as you well know, and I'm wondering whether or not

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Speaker 1: this weakness will will fortify that that part of the

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Speaker 1: Chinese economy. So you've got to see it in the

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Speaker 1: light of an international demand or system stig demands. Today,

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Speaker 1: the domestic demand signals are quite weak. International demand is

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Speaker 1: coming from the weakness or the weakness or there's coming

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Speaker 1: from the weakness and growth in Europe as well as

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Speaker 1: the US. So yes, exports have been a pretty descent,

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Speaker 1: but we have to see what the trend is going

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Speaker 1: forward and how a potential recession in US or Europe

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Speaker 1: fans out demand for international or exports. We were talking

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Speaker 1: about South Korea's record low unemployment. This does give latitude

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Speaker 1: for the Bank of Career to raise rates again, similar

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Speaker 1: to what we saw with Australia's jobs numbers yesterday. How

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Speaker 1: are you kind of viewing the complications of central banks

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Speaker 1: in Asia, and I guess the opportunities in some of

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Speaker 1: these economies. I think the Asian central banks clearly have

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Speaker 1: to fight inflation as well as look at, you know,

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Speaker 1: how the currencies are greit for the long dollar. But

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Speaker 1: having said that, the employment data coming in pretty strong

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Speaker 1: across a couple of countries, it shows that they do

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Speaker 1: have the leeway to hyper rates by another few business

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Speaker 1: points where let's are are going from to half to

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Speaker 1: let's say three over the next few months. But that's

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Speaker 1: the that's the balance that they have to strike in

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Speaker 1: terms of the global demand reduction that's likely to come

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Speaker 1: from Europe in US, and how do they make sure

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Speaker 1: that their economies are relent to the different that But

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Speaker 1: having said that, so some way in having ate heights

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Speaker 1: is always good news for them, but they have to

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Speaker 1: be done to be doing it very cautiously. You know,

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Speaker 1: the energy story has been such a major thread when

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Speaker 1: we talk about higher inflation and building pressures, whether it's

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Speaker 1: in the US, Europe, or in the Apack region where

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Speaker 1: you are. When you look at the crude oil market

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Speaker 1: right now, and we see crew just kind of trading

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Speaker 1: around eighty five the barrel that's w T I I'm

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Speaker 1: curious to get your ticket. Do you have a forecast

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Speaker 1: right now? Are we may be close to a top

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Speaker 1: at least in near term oil because of some of

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Speaker 1: the risk to economic growth globally, and so we don't

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Speaker 1: have a forecast a particular price, but we do mention

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Speaker 1: over it. It It was underweight, so we have been over

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Speaker 1: way to more it days for quite some time only

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Speaker 1: this year. But now as the fears of recession or

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Speaker 1: the talk of recession is coming more than the inflation,

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Speaker 1: you may see that the decision DOREC takes over recasion

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Speaker 1: retorting in the next quarter, and hence UH oil we

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Speaker 1: are likely to be more underweight or neutral than the weight.

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Speaker 1: What sectors are you're kind of saying as as attractive

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Speaker 1: when we look at all the headwinds that we've been

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Speaker 1: facing with the inflationary pressures and I guess also the

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Speaker 1: regulatory concerns too. I mean, is it time to to

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Speaker 1: look at the likes of tech or property in China?

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Speaker 1: So we're still I would say more value focused. Yes,

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Speaker 1: China is a value market, and we see what happens

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Speaker 1: in second of October if there is any stem that's

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Speaker 1: coming from there. It has been beaten down a lot

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Speaker 1: in terms of the pricing, but clearly on the tech

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Speaker 1: we in the US, that's say, we are underweight short

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Speaker 1: term ones we think is the right place to parking

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Speaker 1: money and looking at you know, more long short plays,

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Speaker 1: market neutral strategies at least for the next three to

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Speaker 1: four months. Not your evolution on any property sector in

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Speaker 1: China yet, but overall, looking to have more over weight

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Speaker 1: on China, looking by by by hoping that there is

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Speaker 1: some stimulus coming after the Ottobo meetings. Are she is

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Speaker 1: there a trade right now that you would avoid at

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Speaker 1: all costs. Let's say something of a kind of a

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Speaker 1: herd mentality position that you think is just wrong headed.

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Speaker 1: Right now, I wouldn't say it's wrong, but the long

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Speaker 1: dollar trade could get into a territory which is really

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Speaker 1: que a sharp pullback. So when I'm still saying that, yes,

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Speaker 1: that has more legs to go, but we now need

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Speaker 1: to be very very cautious on how far it can go,

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Speaker 1: especially was at the end and some other currencies. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about India. I mean, this is something that you've

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Speaker 1: mentioned for some time in terms of attractiveness, and it's

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Speaker 1: something that we hear a lot on the program, But

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Speaker 1: is it too late for people to be to be

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Speaker 1: looking at India or there's still some good upside here.

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Speaker 1: So within the growth segment, we're quite volition India. You

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Speaker 1: think that that's an economy that's likely to grow a

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Speaker 1: lot next year. Yes, there is a hedment from the

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Speaker 1: oil prices and the currentcy witness, but the cost of

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Speaker 1: edge of the current is pretty low now given the

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Speaker 1: rate differentials. So we're quite optimistic within the groath segment

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Speaker 1: that despite the valuations over there, it's as a market

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Speaker 1: that's likely to grow and deliver a very high growth.

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Speaker 1: So quite optimistic on country SEC India and maybe in

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Speaker 1: two places like that. All Right, she thank you, as

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Speaker 1: she's trying to found it in CEO at Crystal joining

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Speaker 1: us from Singapore here