WEBVTT - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Talks Equities

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Joining us now Mike Wilson.

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<v Speaker 3>He's chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley and exceptionally

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<v Speaker 3>well timed here with a really smart Sunday note, a

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<v Speaker 3>bit of go on, Alpha over beta. Explain the Greek letters,

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<v Speaker 3>Mike Wilson to us, What is alpha?

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<v Speaker 2>What is beta? And why does alpha winy?

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, Tom, Yeah, I think most of your listeners

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<v Speaker 1>understand this. Beta is sort of your market level risk,

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<v Speaker 1>where you just own the index and an alpha would

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<v Speaker 1>be your stockpicking. It's that simple. And you know what's

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<v Speaker 1>happened in the last three months is that the the

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<v Speaker 1>index itself has gone sideways and and but there's been

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<v Speaker 1>great opportunity under the surface. And that's really the job

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<v Speaker 1>of most investors is to pick stocks and try.

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<v Speaker 2>To beat people.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it's a good it's a good outcome if

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<v Speaker 1>it can sustain for active managers. And by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>people say, oh, stockpicking market, it doesn't mean it's easy,

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<v Speaker 1>but I mean it does feel like what we're dealing.

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<v Speaker 3>With kids kills me, he puts at the end of

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<v Speaker 3>his notepall enjoy your Sunday. Come on Mike's Sunday Mike,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm looking at the Bloomberg launch pad and I got

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<v Speaker 3>a one ninety nine on the ten year real yield.

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<v Speaker 3>My idiot ambiguity meter is that's a slowing economy. When

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<v Speaker 3>you look at Seth Carpenter and companies work, do you

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<v Speaker 3>model in a slowing or level economy where we walk

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<v Speaker 3>away from double digit earnings growth?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, remember the economy is not always the

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<v Speaker 1>market or earnings. And what we've seen in the last

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<v Speaker 1>I would say, really three years is an economy that

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<v Speaker 1>looks fairly robust at the at the aggregate level you

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<v Speaker 1>can talk about at the consumer level or just in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of GDP. But then when you look at earnings

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<v Speaker 1>growth in the last several years, it's been pretty lousy

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<v Speaker 1>for most companies until recently recently we've seen a pickup.

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<v Speaker 1>More companies are starting to grow again. And I attribute

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<v Speaker 1>this to essentially the government being you know, crowding out

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<v Speaker 1>if you will, much of the economy. That is the

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<v Speaker 1>reason we have inflation. For the main the main reason

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<v Speaker 1>we have inflation, too much government spending. Also, it has

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<v Speaker 1>it has kept interest rates higher than they would be normally,

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<v Speaker 1>so real interest rates at two percent is actually quite high, Tom,

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<v Speaker 1>as you know, for in the last fifteen years, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're such a financialized economy that you know, that has

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<v Speaker 1>had a sort of a breaking effect on you know,

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<v Speaker 1>businesses that don't have easy access to capital. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think the FED right now is sort of in a

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<v Speaker 1>you know, tighter place than they probably want to be.

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<v Speaker 1>They would like to cut rates, but they can't because

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<v Speaker 1>inflation now is picking its head up again, so they're

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<v Speaker 1>on hold. They're not going to raise rates in our view,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're trying to find that equilibrium now, like how

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<v Speaker 1>big should the government be? How you how can we

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<v Speaker 1>liberate the private economy in a way where we have

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<v Speaker 1>better velocity kind of in the in the real private

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<v Speaker 1>economy than just government. Mike.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm looking also your chart book where you guys track

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<v Speaker 4>what companies are actually saying on their conference calls. What's

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<v Speaker 4>top of mind for corporate America, And I guess, not surprisingly,

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<v Speaker 4>one of those key issues is tariffs. How did terriffs

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<v Speaker 4>kind of factor into kind of your view of inflation

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<v Speaker 4>and maybe how the FED will proceed and how that

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<v Speaker 4>might impact stocks.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well, I think the FED has told you, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>pretty straightforward since December. That the uncertainty around Terrace is

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<v Speaker 1>another reason why they're probably going to take a pause

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<v Speaker 1>on the rate cutting campaign. Now, remember, they have another

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<v Speaker 1>lever they can use, which I think they will, which

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<v Speaker 1>is to basically end QT finally, which is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a decent amount of repurchases and across the curve. They

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<v Speaker 1>can probably start doing that in May or June, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's another lever that they can sort of pull on.

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<v Speaker 1>As far as companies go, I mean, companies are always

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<v Speaker 1>you know, trying to incorporate these changes into their their

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<v Speaker 1>business models and how they're running their own companies. And

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<v Speaker 1>tariffs are front and center right now because not only

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<v Speaker 1>is that a potential heat, but it's also so uncertainty

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<v Speaker 1>because you know, one day we have them, on the

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<v Speaker 1>next day they're being delayed. And look, that's what companies

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<v Speaker 1>have to manage that process. The good news is, I

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<v Speaker 1>think in the last round of terrorists back in eighteen,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of companies did relocate some manufacturing, some final

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<v Speaker 1>assembly at the areas like Mexico. I think that may

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<v Speaker 1>be one of the reasons why the President is going

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<v Speaker 1>after Mexico because that was kind of a backdoor way

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<v Speaker 1>of avoiding tariffs on China. So it's just going to

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<v Speaker 1>be you know, six months of uncertainty. And that's why

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<v Speaker 1>companies are mentioning it because you know, they don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to get caught, you know, in a way where they're

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<v Speaker 1>guiding too high and then terrif's end up being a

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<v Speaker 1>headwind for their growth expectations and equity markets.

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<v Speaker 3>We have Mike Wilson with us and Morgan Stanley, Bob

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<v Speaker 3>do All to join later. We welcome all of you

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<v Speaker 3>on your commute accross the nation on all every different

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<v Speaker 3>radio platforms and on Bloomberg podcasts. Subscribed to YouTube. Working

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<v Speaker 3>on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 4>Paul Mike, We're gonna get We're gonna hear from Nvidia

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<v Speaker 4>Wednesday after the close, since one of the last big

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<v Speaker 4>big companies reporting earnings in this in this cycle. Here,

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<v Speaker 4>what did you take away from this quarterly's earnings cycle?

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<v Speaker 4>And you know, more importantly, maybe the guidance you've been

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<v Speaker 4>paying attention to.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, first of all, it shows that the fourth quarter

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<v Speaker 1>was boom times now some of that, once again was

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<v Speaker 1>government fiscal deficit was up forty percent year every year,

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<v Speaker 1>but also there was some excitement around you know, just

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<v Speaker 1>a clean election, maybe you have more pro growth, you know, administration,

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<v Speaker 1>and so there was more activity in the fourth quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>and so what we're seeing now is kind of just

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<v Speaker 1>that rolling off a bit. Then maybe we got a

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<v Speaker 1>little ahead of ourselves. Higher rates and hire a stronger

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<v Speaker 1>dollar was weighing on some of the guidance for twenty five.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, companies tend to do that seasonally anyways, they

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<v Speaker 1>want to lower the bar a bit at the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. But then the other things that have

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<v Speaker 1>been we've been focused on really in no particular order, terrorists,

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<v Speaker 1>as you already mentioned. Number two, we have immigration enforcement,

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<v Speaker 1>which has been a huge fiscal boost and also a

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<v Speaker 1>labor supply boost, and then we have right the department

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<v Speaker 1>government efficiency. They they're off to an aggressive start. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic that probably more optimistic than the most that they

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<v Speaker 1>can make some headway there. But remember the more successful

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<v Speaker 1>they are in the short term, the more growth negative

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<v Speaker 1>that is in the near term before you get to

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<v Speaker 1>the good stuff. And then of course the positive effects

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<v Speaker 1>of policy like deregulation, maybe extending the tax cuts on

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<v Speaker 1>those come later in the year. Those are those require

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<v Speaker 1>congressional approval, and so that's just not you know, that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to take six and twelve months, and so the

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<v Speaker 1>bad stuff first and good stuff comes later.

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<v Speaker 3>Mike Wilson, to get back to your idea that ELFA

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<v Speaker 3>is the way this works, and let's just generalize that

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<v Speaker 3>as individual stock selection.

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<v Speaker 2>What is the Mike Wilson process?

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<v Speaker 3>There?

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<v Speaker 2>Is it securities research, Graham, Dot and Coddle bottom bottom up?

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<v Speaker 3>Is it a cell side concept of looking at what's

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<v Speaker 3>gonna win?

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<v Speaker 2>Or is it more factor.

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<v Speaker 3>Based where you're looking at different items and trying to

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<v Speaker 3>figure out, like say, well, more momentum or something else win.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a great question, Tom, and it has changed over time.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the main thing that's changed in the institutional

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<v Speaker 1>world anyways is the time horizon. So you know, twenty

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<v Speaker 1>years ago, you know, I would say institutional investors were

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<v Speaker 1>kind of in the six to twelve month time horizon.

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<v Speaker 1>It's now, you know, one to three months and in

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<v Speaker 1>some cases one to three days. So that's what's changed,

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<v Speaker 1>and that means you just got to be really laser

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<v Speaker 1>focused on kind of news at the margin, whether it's

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<v Speaker 1>fundamental news around a specific company, whether it's a macro

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<v Speaker 1>changing event that can affect certain companies differently. So all

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<v Speaker 1>those things we look at, I would say the quantitative

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<v Speaker 1>analysis and factor analysis has probably picked up the most

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<v Speaker 1>most institutional investors now putting ourselves as advising them use

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<v Speaker 1>that tool, and it's quite helpful. As you mentioned, price

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<v Speaker 1>momentum is probably the most important factor variable because everybody

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<v Speaker 1>likes to perform. And I would say, you know that

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<v Speaker 1>can also get you in trouble because what is happening

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<v Speaker 1>as you end up, as I'd like to say, using

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<v Speaker 1>price as your analysts, as opposed to doing the analysis

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<v Speaker 1>and then letting price follow. And I think that's just

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<v Speaker 1>the where we live in now. Everybody's short termism. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think that's going to change any time soon.

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<v Speaker 3>Bottle that for all of you worldwide, whatever your sophistication.

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<v Speaker 3>What Mike Wilson just said there and Paul Sweden and

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<v Speaker 3>I lived this of where three years became eighteen months

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<v Speaker 3>and twelve months became three months. And what are we

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<v Speaker 3>doing the window dress at the end of the quarter.

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<v Speaker 3>The short term ism now and how can you prosper

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<v Speaker 3>by pushing against that? Is Mike Wilson alluded to there.

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<v Speaker 3>That was extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, a lot of it, I think coincident with the

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<v Speaker 4>growth of hedge funds as well. Mike, what screens well

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<v Speaker 4>for you guys these days.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, getting back to the stock picking, I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>now this particular factor always screens well, but it's extremely

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<v Speaker 1>important now as earning your vision breath. So companies that

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<v Speaker 1>are showing are showing the ability to kind of, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>continue to raise numbers. You're getting paid for that more

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<v Speaker 1>now that you normally do. You always get paid for that,

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<v Speaker 1>but now you're getting paid for it more and you're

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<v Speaker 1>getting punished for it. On the other side, the other

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<v Speaker 1>factor that's really working is quality. Quality has been working

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<v Speaker 1>really well the last two or three years because of

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of crowding out feature, but in the fall

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<v Speaker 1>we saw a movement towards low quality, and then now

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<v Speaker 1>we're giving that back. So large cap, quality, earnings, division breath.

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<v Speaker 1>Those are the three most important factors, and of course

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<v Speaker 1>price momentum still is important as well.

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<v Speaker 4>How about on the industry side, what stands out to

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<v Speaker 4>you guys these days?

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<v Speaker 1>So it's been consistent really since November. Financials mainly the

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<v Speaker 1>banks as opposed to other financials and capital markets companies. Software,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly relative to say semi connectors and hardware, they're less

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<v Speaker 1>affected by tariffs, and there's some reinvestment now as we

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<v Speaker 1>go from the enabler to the adoption layer for AI.

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<v Speaker 1>That should benefit media entertainment, you know, not just the yep.

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<v Speaker 1>Media and entertainment in a traditional media entertainment names are

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<v Speaker 1>doing well. Remember those are mostly domestic businesses, yeah, mostly domestic. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>And then of course services, consumer services, which is the

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<v Speaker 1>one part of the private economy which is still doing

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<v Speaker 1>quite well. Services is doing much better than goods.

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<v Speaker 4>Mike, I'm guessing from your clients you get an evaluation

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<v Speaker 4>question or two every day. Boy, this market seems expensive.

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<v Speaker 4>How do you respond generally?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we don't get many questions on valuation anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>I think people have given up on that metric. That

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<v Speaker 1>metric is faded in its importance in the short term, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>And as I like to say, you know, in the

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<v Speaker 1>short term, valuation doesn't matter at all. In the long term,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the only thing that matters. So we've seen, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as race went back through four and a half percent

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<v Speaker 1>of the upside, we identified that as an area where

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<v Speaker 1>valuation would matter, it has mattered, but not to the

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<v Speaker 1>degree that it has historically. So I'm not sure what's

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<v Speaker 1>going to get us, you know, for that to become

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<v Speaker 1>in vogue again, but it's it's not an important factor

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment.

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<v Speaker 4>Told to us about breath of the market, Mike, A

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<v Speaker 4>lot of folks in a tors And slot today was

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<v Speaker 4>just out with the note from Apollo, just talking about

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<v Speaker 4>the concentration within this equity market par typically in big

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<v Speaker 4>cap US technology names, and how that's really relative to

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<v Speaker 4>the rest of the world just getting more and more pronounced.

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<v Speaker 4>How do you think about breath or lack of breath

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<v Speaker 4>in this market.

0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.000
<v Speaker 1>Well, it gets back to quality. So and I would

0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:36.440
<v Speaker 1>say the as bad as the concentration is in the US,

0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:38.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, we have like five stocks or thirty percent,

0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:41.959
<v Speaker 1>it's even worse in places like Germany where we have

0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:45.000
<v Speaker 1>three stocks or thirty five percent or in parts of eight.

0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:47.760
<v Speaker 1>And what's going on is the same thing that's going

0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.760
<v Speaker 1>on here, which is that people are crowding into kind

0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:55.040
<v Speaker 1>of these large camp quality stocks. It just so happens

0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:57.880
<v Speaker 1>that the US has more of them, so, you know,

0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:00.439
<v Speaker 1>but in other places of the world there fer them.

0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:03.160
<v Speaker 1>Why the crowding is even more so. So it's just

0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:06.160
<v Speaker 1>more of the same. You know, basically people, you know,

0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.280
<v Speaker 1>the markets are smart, they've crowded into what's working. What's

0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:12.839
<v Speaker 1>working is large cap quality, particularly quality growth in that

0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:15.400
<v Speaker 1>because they have scale and they can operate in this

0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:19.440
<v Speaker 1>world where perhaps rates are high. The government is a

0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 1>big part of the economy. You have a lot of uncertainty,

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:26.040
<v Speaker 1>multipolar world, geopolitics is you know, kind of putting pressure

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:29.640
<v Speaker 1>on certain regions, and you know, I think that continues

0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.480
<v Speaker 1>for the foreseeable future. The thing they could change that

0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:34.880
<v Speaker 1>which I'm getting a little excited about it is if

0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:37.480
<v Speaker 1>we can shrink the government. So imagine this, you have

0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.760
<v Speaker 1>a recession in government. I'm not sure that that would

0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:43.760
<v Speaker 1>be that bad for the private economy. I'm not sure

0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.040
<v Speaker 1>we're going to get that, but if we did, that

0:12:46.080 --> 0:12:48.440
<v Speaker 1>would potentially change that dynamic.

0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.880
<v Speaker 3>Mike Wilson very quickly here talk about enthusiasm. I mean

0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:56.640
<v Speaker 3>Michigan State taking up Michigan and basketball. That was like

0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:58.439
<v Speaker 3>Big Ten classic, wasn't it?

0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:02.360
<v Speaker 1>Well classic for if you're not a Michigan fan.

0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:05.680
<v Speaker 2>But they can still come back.

0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.559
<v Speaker 1>The Big Ten is always competitive time. As I like

0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.200
<v Speaker 1>to say in both basketball and football and other sports

0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:15.000
<v Speaker 1>as well. So and Big Blue has had a good run.

0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.280
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean they're in second place. Mission, I mean

0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:19.720
<v Speaker 3>they have the two teams up top.

0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:22.600
<v Speaker 2>Of Big Ten. Is important? Why is USC in the

0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:26.960
<v Speaker 2>Big Ten? Does Mike Wilson understand? Please?

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:28.719
<v Speaker 4>Hell the kids from Los Angeles that come all the

0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:32.280
<v Speaker 4>way to Piscataway, New Jersey to play basketball, Oregon, it's in.

0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.560
<v Speaker 2>The Big Ten. Mike Wilson, this is Unamerican. I hope

0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:39.559
<v Speaker 2>Michigan takes every victory from the way pushes those Westerners

0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 2>out of it. Mister Wilson is with Morgan Stanley. Thank

0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:44.320
<v Speaker 2>you so much, Mike Wilson.