WEBVTT - Trump Indictment, PCE Inflation Data, and Markets 0:00:00.760 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.560 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.319 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast News. Over the last 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.079 cycle here twenty four hours has been former President Donald 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:29.600 Trump indited in New York and that is a developing story. 0:00:29.640 --> 0:00:31.840 We want to get some perspective on that, and the 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:34.839 first call we put out was to Tim O'Brien. He's 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:38.199 his senior executive editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He's been doing 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:40.720 that since twenty thirteen. I think before that he was 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:42.920 at the Huffington Post, The New York Times, the Wall 0:00:42.920 --> 0:00:45.440 Street Journal. My takeaway from all over that is the 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:47.560 guy has a hard time keeping a job, but he's 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:49.840 done a pretty good job here at Bloomberg. He wrote 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.400 a book back in the day, Trump Nation, The Art 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:54.360 of Being the Donald, in two thousand and five, that 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:57.520 is the definitive biography of Donald Trump. He got sued 0:00:57.520 --> 0:00:59.480 by the former president of that but he won and 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:01.600 if he wants to talk about it, Ken, But Tim, 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:04.319 what do you make of the news about the New 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:08.160 York indictment? What's your initial read? Well, well, Paul, the 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:09.560 first thing I'm to say, the reason I have a 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:12.000 hard time keeping a job is because of mean colleague. 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:18.720 You no support? Yeah, I think we don't know, right. 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:21.080 I think this is one of those moments in which 0:01:21.200 --> 0:01:26.440 everyone wants to a pine and analyze, and I think 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:29.840 until we actually see the indictment itself, it's underseal, I 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:32.959 imagine it we'll get unsealed Monday or Tuesday. Trump is 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:36.959 likely to be arraigned on Tuesday. But that's not completely 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.640 written in the stone either. I've written before that I 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:46.240 think that Alvin Bragg's case is relatively flimsy relative to 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:49.600 some of the other investigations and prosecutions that are ongoing. 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:54.360 I don't know that this was the best case you 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:56.640 would want to bring to him, bring it out of 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.760 that office at this point in time against a former president, 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:05.240 but he's chosen to do so. And Donald Trump has 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:09.679 spent decades weaponizing the law law and avoiding any accountability 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:16.200 in courtrooms, and at a minimum that that's been pierced 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:18.880 you know, he's going to be indicted for the first time. 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:21.320 He's the first president to be indicted. But I think 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:23.960 in his own narrow world, it's also the first time 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:30.840 he's been indicted, and he's going to react against that 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:35.880 in strident ways. Let me let me ask Tim Matt 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:37.960 Miller here, by the way, thanks for joining us. Let 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:42.240 me let me ask about Alvin Bragg, because I thought 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:46.960 Bragg was less likely to indict Trump. In fact, I 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.239 thought a couple of the people in his office wanted 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:53.560 to indict Trump previously and quit because they were so 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:57.080 angry that they weren't able to stopped by their boss, 0:02:57.120 --> 0:03:01.000 Alvin Bragg. So what's the deal with this? Remember remember 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:03.760 the context of that. So Albert Bragge inherits, the case 0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:07.600 built by Cybance and sivances on. Prosecutors were very split 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:12.400 around whether or not they had enough evidence to take 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:14.720 to court on a criminal charge. Remember a criminal charge, 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:18.600 the standard is the you have to prove intent on 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:20.600 the part of the perpetrator. It's a very high bar, 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:25.359 and I think the people in Sivance's office were very 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:27.680 split down the middle on this around whether or not 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:31.120 they had the mojo to take it to court. Dance 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:35.360 basically leaves dumps this on Bragg's desk without resolving it. 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:39.640 Brad comes in, he looks at it. He decides that 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.440 there's too much division here. We can't bring this particular 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.920 case involving you know, I think years and years of 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:52.280 financial fraud allegation. But he goes down a new path 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.360 based on other evidence he has involving the payments to 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:59.840 store Mey Daniels and bookkeeping fraud attendant to that that. 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.720 We know that that's one thing he's looked at. Here's 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.840 the coveat on that. There's been reporting out there that 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.880 say there maybe more than thirty counts in this indictment. 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:12.400 He could well have assembled other evidence well beyond the 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:14.680 Stormy Daniels thing. I think for this case to app 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:19.479 gravitas and traction, it needs to have actually much more 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:23.000 than that. Well is this reminds me of you know, 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:28.760 when Merrick Garland had the FED raid Mara Lago. We 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.359 all thought, man in order to do that, he must 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:35.120 have something serious, But it so far doesn't look like 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:38.160 he has anything serious. Well, wait a minute, you know, 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:43.400 we have to let the legal system work through these things. 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:48.160 The Moral Lago incident is very serious. Federal authorities believe 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:53.440 he violated the Aspeona Jact. Potentially there are classified documents 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:57.600 that he took down there without handling it in proper 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:02.440 ways that any president, regardless of par or persuasion, should observe. Well, 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:04.520 I mean, we have a president in office right now 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:07.680 who don't interrupt me. Matt. I know you're prone to 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:09.760 do that, but i'm your cast, so hear me out. 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:15.960 The legal system is there as a process to protect 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:18.839 all of us, regardless of party. It can be flawed, 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:22.360 it can be inexact, but it is there for a reason, 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:25.800 and there's very good reason. The Moral Lago incident is 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:29.279 being examined, and it should be regardless who was in 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:30.919 the in the white outs, and we don't know what 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:33.640 they have yet. So we have to be patient with 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:37.320 this so we can get properly aired publicly. And I 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:39.440 think that's true of all of these cases. Patience is 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:43.359 not one of my virtues. I know that. So Tim, 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:45.080 help us put into content. I mean, we have the 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:47.800 New York City issue, won't get more clarity on it 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:50.800 next week when it's unsealed. Help us frame out the 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:54.560 other risks for the former president in terms of this 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:58.760 federal investigation as well as the investigation in Georgia, because 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:00.840 those seems to seem to be on the first read, 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:05.200 more serious and perhaps more of a problem for mister Trump. 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.680 I don't know that they are. I honestly think you know. 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.680 There's a civil case in New York, New York ag 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.520 she's a Democrat, that one could it's a civil case. 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:18.280 It could result in a serious financial penalty. It could 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:20.279 put him out of business in New York. It's not 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:23.200 going to put him in prison. It's not going to 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:25.600 prevent him from running for the president. For the presidency 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:29.120 in Georgia, there's a criminal case there by the Fulton 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.640 County District Attorney Fani Willis that involves voting fraud. That 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:35.240 is also unlikely to put him in jail. It also 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.400 won't prevent him for running for president. Eugene Debs ran 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:42.039 for president as a socialist from jail about one hundred 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:46.200 years ago. Lyndon the Lararuge, a serial tax dodger, ran 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:50.479 the for presidency for the presidency a number of times, 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:53.400 even though he've been convicted of tax run crimes. Don't 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:55.720 keep you out of the office. What keeps you out 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:58.640 of the office is if you've led an insurrection. The 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:04.560 fourteenth Amendment specifically points at insurrection as a disqualifying factor. 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:07.760 It was instituted after the Civil War to prevent Confederate 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:12.880 seditionists from running for office. That's in the DOJ case 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:16.680 with the January sixth prosecution. In my mind, the moral 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:20.880 Lago case, the in the January sixth case, those investigations 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:23.080 are the only things that's going to keep him out 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:27.160 of office. And potentially, and even they may not so 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:29.640 for I think for people who have an emotional investment 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.880 in the outcome of these that they think ultimately these 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:34.640 are the only things they're going to stop Donald Trump 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:36.880 from inhabiting the White House. That's a splender threat. The 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:38.960 only they keeps Trump out of the White House ultimately, 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:42.280 I think our voters. So by the way, I just 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:44.800 want to point out we were talking this morning, and 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.240 I'm sure a lot of people we'll talk about this. 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:50.240 Tim you probably already know about it. I thought Trump 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:52.880 would be would have been the first president ever arrested 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:56.840 after office, and some reports of surface that Ulysses S. 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:59.520 Grant had been arrested for speeding in the late eighteen 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:04.360 on a horse's feeding on a horse, Yes, exactly. I 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:08.240 find it incredibly hard to believe that's a good story, though, Tim, 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:10.400 what do you think this? How do you think the 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:14.880 other I don't know, Republican potential nominees. How do you 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:17.280 think they're going to position themselves here? Are they going 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:18.880 to just maybe lay low and let a play out. 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.200 I think it's tricky, you know. I think Pence came 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:27.720 out and defended Trump the Santis has. I think the 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:30.200 tricky thing in terms of the politics of this is 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:32.640 that Donald Trump has a very firm hold on about 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.080 thirty percent of the Republican Party. It makes them an 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.120 important fact in the primary races. He has I think 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:43.600 statally turned off independent moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats, like 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:47.200 the sort of middle middle tier of voters I think 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:50.120 now know who he is, and it hobbles him as 0:08:50.120 --> 0:08:52.840 a national candidate. So the party has kind of held 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:57.439 hostage to getting new people out on the stage who 0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:00.679 can get through the primary process without being capped by 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:04.240 Trump while still being viable national candidates. And I think 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:08.280 each of those individuals, Santists, Haley, they're all trying to 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:10.960 navigate around that. I think they don't want to be 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:14.720 appearing to be exactly in the same boat as Trump 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:18.080 or supporting some of his you know, some of his 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:20.880 greater obscenities. On the other hand, they also know that 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:24.559 they need his voters. So it's a tricky balance. I think, Tim, 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:28.280 just about twenty thirty seconds, is a Trump voter? Can 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.320 a Trump voter be a Decantist voter supporter or a 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:36.760 Haley supporter? Yeah, they can, I think so. I mean, 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:38.600 I think I think they can. I think that, I 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:42.200 think that. I just don't think enough. I don't think 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:44.719 you can. I don't think de Santists or Haley can 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:47.559 win only with Trump voters. Yeah, I think they need 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:51.839 Trump voters plus moderates. And how do you thread that needle. 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:54.720 It's like watching a hostage video. Yeah, yeah, all right, Tim, 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:56.640 thanks so much for taking the time. You really wanted 0:09:56.679 --> 0:10:00.120 to get your perspective and opinion here. Tim O'Brien's is 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:04.120 a senior executive editor for Bloomberg Opinion Again. He wrote 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:06.200 The Trump Nation, The Art of Being the Donald in 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.480 two thousand and five. It was described as the definitive 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:11.720 biography of Donald Trump. So he has a lot of 0:10:11.800 --> 0:10:15.040 personal experience reporting on President Trump. We're gonna more coming up. 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:20.640 This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Team Cancer Live program, 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:24.640 Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am easting on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.280 the I Heart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:31.920 We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. Some 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:35.200 latest reporting on this Trump in Diamond that hit the 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:38.760 tape late afternoon yesterday. Amory Horder in Washington, correspondent with 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:42.200 Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Law hosts June Grasso. They joined 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:44.960 us here, both in studio. We appreciate that they both 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:49.360 get the coveted gold star for being in studio. So, June, 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.000 I want to start with you from a legal perspective, 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:56.520 is this a good case? Well, first, let me say 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.480 that we do not know exactly what the case is. Yeah, 0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:03.320 this is all speculation because the grandjury indictment is still 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:08.120 under seal. If what we think it is is actually 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:11.319 what it is, then it's a novel case. I mean, 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:14.440 week or strong. It's it's different, It's never been done before. 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:18.680 It's taking as it's taking a misdemeanor, which is the 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:23.440 falsifying of business records and do and in order to 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:25.199 make it a felony. I mean, they're not. They don't 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:27.160 want to bring a People are complaining that they're even 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:28.960 bringing this case. They don't want to bring a misdemeanor 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:32.480 against the president. So former president, and so you take 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:35.440 the falsifying business records, and you have to show that 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:39.720 that Trump also had an intent to defraud that included 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:43.760 an intent to commit we're thinking a second crime of 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:47.480 election campaign finance violations. I mean, that's what we're thinking. 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:49.680 So you're taking two, you're taking a felony and a 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:53.560 misdemeanor and hooking them together. And it's it hasn't been 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:55.480 done by New York prosecutors. I don't know if it's 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:58.200 been done by any want anyone. So there's a chance 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.880 that I don't think a judge would dismiss it before 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.040 went to trial, because you want to get the jury verdict, 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:04.319 and a judge is not going to be the one 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:06.280 that wants to say that. People say I threw that 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:10.080 out against Donald Trump. So but after on appeal, I 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:14.360 mean an appellate cord could reverse Okay, So, Anne Marie 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.040 from the political perspective, here again, the first time a 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:21.040 former president has been indicted. What's the feeling in Washington, 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:22.880 what's the feeling about and the first time Trump's been 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.240 indicted and the first time Trump's which that's I think 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:29.040 more shocking. Exactly exactly what's the feeling from Washington. Well, 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:31.920 he's not just a former president, he's also a candidate 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:35.280 right on the Republican Party to be their front runner. 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:37.760 And he's right now he's is their front runner. He's 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:41.079 winning in all their polls for twenty twenty four. So 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:44.440 what you can imagine is that for Washington, this is 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:49.400 just hardening those political divides. The one place you will 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:52.440 not see a comment from is the White House. President 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.200 Biden left this morning to go to Mississippi, and he 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:58.880 was asked repeatedly, you have a comment asking anything about 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.360 the indictment, any thoughts at all. I'm not going to 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:02.960 comment on that. I'm not going to comment on that. 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.080 The Republicans in Congress, though, there's talk of them even 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:09.400 sending out a subpoena to Alvin brag because they think 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:13.600 that this is well, they're calling it outrageous. So this 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:16.040 is not going away. But we should also know, and 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:21.840 this is something that potentially can coalesce around the president 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:23.920 in the next few months, is this is only one 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:28.360 of a number of cases that their former president is 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:31.560 under investigation for and looks like right now, from what 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:33.880 we know, and as June points out, we don't yet 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:38.400 know what the act looks like the weakest and least 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:43.080 important of any right. I mean, you've got a much 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:46.480 more important case, it seems in Georgia. You've got a 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:50.920 much more serious civil case. Here in New York you've 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:54.760 got a serious federal capital cases. So yeah, but the 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:59.080 prosecutor can't look at what other prosecutors are doing. He's 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.080 got his own grand jury that he called. What is 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:03.560 he supposed to say, Okay, grand jury, go home for 0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:06.520 a year, come back. Wish you can anyway, go home 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:09.199 and come back, and will you know, after Georgia indits, 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:12.640 then will indite. He's on his own track, and he 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:15.280 has other problems to think about. He has statute of limitations, 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:17.079 problems and all kinds of things to think about it. 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.080 I mean, I do admit. You know Mark Palmerantz, who 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:22.600 was a former prosecutor there who made a big deal 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:27.080 about Trump, right, he called this case the zombie case. 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.240 He said, it's been called the zombie case because it's 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:33.600 been dead and then revived so many times. So obviously, 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:35.840 you know, if it's been dead and then revived that 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:38.920 it's not the strongest of cases. So but you got 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:43.320 to sound resilient, are resiliently exactly how you watch that 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:46.640 this is us? Yes? Yeah, the last of us that 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:52.040 was they did you? I mean, you've heard the criticisms 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:56.200 from Republicans that this is you know, personal even um, 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:58.280 that it's a witch hunt. Obviously that's the term that 0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:00.880 they've used since before he was an elected the first time. 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:05.160 But does Alvin brag have some kind of personal vendetto 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:07.480 or issue with Donald Trump that we've seen any hint 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:11.280 of previously. No. I mean, he did have a case 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.160 against him when he was in the Attorney General's office, 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.880 but he wasn't one of the people who ran on 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.800 I'm going to prosecute Trump. He didn't. He would say 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:23.920 I can't really talk about that in case the case 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.880 comes before me. That old line. So, I mean, there's 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:30.080 no And he's also a very careful man. He's a 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:33.400 very known as a careful prosecutor who'll go over things 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.280 and over things. So I have to believe that if 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:40.440 he's bringing this case he thinks he can get a conviction. 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:42.760 I mean, he's pretty sure of himself, because I don't 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.440 think you'd bring a case like this unless you're sure 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:47.320 that you can get a conviction. Remember he was the 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:50.000 one that initially decided in February of twenty twenty two 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:56.320 not to pursue an indictment. Yeah. Well, I mean this 0:15:56.400 --> 0:16:01.360 reminds me to some extent of the Marlagoid, which we 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.080 said at the time, like, wow, you can't raid the 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:06.640 ex president's house. We also said that it wasn't a 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.600 raid because it was it has subpoena to get there. 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:12.560 Only people who are divorced from reality only needed a 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:18.320 subpoena because they wouldn't turn over these highly classified documents. 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:21.120 I just everyone was waiting to see a smoking gun 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.720 from Merrick Garland and we haven't. Well, no, there's a 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:28.080 special counsel. This is being investigated. Special the special counsel 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:33.760 is has been serving subpoenas on people. He's gotten He's 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:38.440 gotten Trump's lawyer to testify about attorney client privilege by 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.520 using the crime fraud exception that tells you that a 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.160 judge thinks there's a crime there. Otherwise you don't have 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:46.840 the crime fraud exception. Right, He's got all these pieces 0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:50.160 got Mark Meadows coming in vice president of Evans Mike 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:53.280 Pants he also had a He also just won this 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:56.480 week his case against Mike Pens, forcing him to come 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.000 in to testify, but leaving a few things out because 0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:01.320 of the all the balls in the air, Guys, do 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.200 we have any sense of timing for the federal case 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:09.840 the Georgia? Is this measured in weeks? Months? Even more? Yeah? 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:12.080 More more? Okay? But first of all, you know, we 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:15.960 don't know yet when Georgia. That investigation has been going 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:19.520 on longer than any other, and special grand jury came 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.120 back with its recommendations and she's still as as far 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:24.439 as I know, has not called another grand jury to 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:27.760 indict the you know, the special Council. Who knows how 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.000 long that'll take. But in this case, the last trial 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:33.680 against Trump took up eighteen months I think to get 0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:37.119 to trial, and that was the checks Broad case. So 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:38.880 who knows how long this will take to get to Well, 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:43.160 hopefully it gets steals before November twenty twenty four, right, Well, 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:46.600 that would be ideal. But June's point, that's we don't 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:50.320 know that this stuff takes a very long time. Also, 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:54.919 it doesn't matter, I mean in our history, American history. 0:17:55.000 --> 0:17:58.280 We had Eugene Devs who campaigned and ran for president 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:00.199 when he was in jail on the Socialist part in 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.280 the nineteen twenty Okay, this no. What I'm saying is 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:06.200 even if the president, even if the president is going 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:09.000 through this, maybe his party will want to say, we 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:10.679 don't want to deal with this drama and we're going 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:13.880 to choose another candidate. But he could still run for president. True, 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:18.600 unless he gets busted for inciting an insurrection. Right, I'm 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:21.520 talking about specifically about the New York case. Oh well, 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:23.879 I'm talking about the other cases, the big ones. You know, 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:29.800 Georgia him from holding federal office one hundred percent. And 0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:34.000 it's unlikely now that he lacks support from his party, 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:37.080 right because complete opposite what you are seeing is the 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:41.400 base is coming out, they are donating. He is campaigning 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.000 off of this. Since he said I will be arrested, 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:47.120 he has been sending out campaign letters. He has been 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:51.280 talking about it. You saw his rally in Waco, Texas, saying, 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:54.080 I am the one that it is a victim here. 0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:57.280 I need your support. Look at what these Democrats are doing, 0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:01.480 and he's forcing every Republican to make decision on who 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:03.919 they stand by. So not only going to see the 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:06.639 hardening of politics between Democrats and Republicans, I think you'll 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:09.440 see a hardening of politics within the Republican Party. Those 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:11.439 that say we need to lean into him and support 0:19:11.440 --> 0:19:14.000 the former president, those that say he didn't win us 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:16.560 the midterm elections. He didn't win the last election. It's 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:18.840 time we move on to a new leader. When does 0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:21.920 it get tiring? The witch hunt thing? I'm a victim. 0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:24.400 I can't. I can't believe he's still able to raise 0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:26.760 money on that. He's been saying that for how many 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:30.560 years before he became a president. So, I mean, it'd 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:32.960 be interesting to see how this shakes out. And from 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:35.879 the Washington perspective, how aggressive do you think the Republicans 0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:39.159 and Congress will get here? Well, they'll be incredibly aggressive. 0:19:39.400 --> 0:19:42.920 We already before the former president was indicted, you had 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:45.959 Jim Jordan, you had James Komer. They're coming out sending 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.720 letters to Alvin Bragg. They want him to come to DC. 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:51.960 They want a hearing about this. But it's it's adhering 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:55.360 to nowhere. Right, the Republicans only hold the House. All 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:57.680 of this is going to be posturing and it does 0:19:57.960 --> 0:19:59.719 remove a lot of oxygen in the room for some 0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:02.080 other big issues they're supposed to be tackling. I just 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:05.119 have to say one thing. I can't imagine Alvin Bragg 0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:10.600 going to Washington heard a committee. They want information on 0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:13.960 a grand jury that's secret, and they want information on 0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:18.040 what the prosecutor's office is doing before a trial that's 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:21.760 not going to happen. Posturing. Posturing is a word, all right. Guys, 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:25.199 Hemory Horder and Jeran Grassop, both from Bloomberg News and 0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:28.119 Bloomberg Television, bring us the latest year. You're listening to 0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:31.840 the tape Cancer Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten 0:20:31.920 --> 0:20:35.640 am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. Tune in alf Bloomberg dot 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.320 Com and the Bloomberg Business Half. You can also listen 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:41.639 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:20:41.840 --> 0:20:48.160 Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. Take a look 0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:51.479 again at this story President Trump being former President Trumping 0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:55.560 indicted by New York and what it really means for 0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:58.680 the political landscape, not just for mister Trump, but also 0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:02.840 for the general presidential election coming up in twenty twenty four. 0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:05.000 We can do that today with the Director of the 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:09.280 Center for American Politics and Policy for Around University, Professor 0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:12.800 Wendy Schiller joins us professor, thanks so much for taking 0:21:12.800 --> 0:21:15.600 the time here. I mean, just you know, incredible news 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:20.159 broke yesterday about the indictment from New York. What do 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:22.919 you think the political implications are for Let's just start first, 0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:28.040 for the former president. Well, I mean, he'll get a 0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:31.560 lot of attention. Trump loves attention, and he will be 0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:35.000 able to shore up his support within the Party's already 0:21:35.000 --> 0:21:38.400 asking for small level donations like twenty four, twenty five 0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:40.760 dollars or something. I think he's doing twenty four dollars 0:21:40.760 --> 0:21:44.520 for twenty twenty four for his defense, So it'll be 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.879 a short term boost for him. And if people like 0:21:48.000 --> 0:21:50.879 Ronda Santis or Tim Scott or thinking he's already in 0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:53.640 the race, but Mike Pompeo anybody else is thinking of running, 0:21:53.680 --> 0:21:56.280 if they wait too long, he'll just soak up all 0:21:56.320 --> 0:22:00.640 of that momentum, energy and oxygen and he may actually 0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:03.160 gain a lead that might be hard to surmount, even 0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:06.080 though voting hasn't even begune in the primers, does this case, 0:22:06.240 --> 0:22:11.520 Wendy matter to potential Trump voters? I mean, even Republicans 0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:14.040 who don't necessarily support them all the time. Do they 0:22:14.080 --> 0:22:16.920 care if he paid hush money to a former porn star. 0:22:18.359 --> 0:22:21.360