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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast News. Over the last

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Speaker 1: cycle here twenty four hours has been former President Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump indited in New York and that is a developing story.

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Speaker 1: We want to get some perspective on that, and the

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Speaker 1: first call we put out was to Tim O'Brien. He's

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Speaker 1: his senior executive editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He's been doing

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Speaker 1: that since twenty thirteen. I think before that he was

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Speaker 1: at the Huffington Post, The New York Times, the Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Journal. My takeaway from all over that is the

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Speaker 1: guy has a hard time keeping a job, but he's

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Speaker 1: done a pretty good job here at Bloomberg. He wrote

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Speaker 1: a book back in the day, Trump Nation, The Art

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Speaker 1: of Being the Donald, in two thousand and five, that

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Speaker 1: is the definitive biography of Donald Trump. He got sued

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Speaker 1: by the former president of that but he won and

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Speaker 1: if he wants to talk about it, Ken, But Tim,

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Speaker 1: what do you make of the news about the New

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Speaker 1: York indictment? What's your initial read? Well, well, Paul, the

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Speaker 1: first thing I'm to say, the reason I have a

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Speaker 1: hard time keeping a job is because of mean colleague.

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Speaker 1: You no support? Yeah, I think we don't know, right.

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Speaker 1: I think this is one of those moments in which

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Speaker 1: everyone wants to a pine and analyze, and I think

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Speaker 1: until we actually see the indictment itself, it's underseal, I

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Speaker 1: imagine it we'll get unsealed Monday or Tuesday. Trump is

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Speaker 1: likely to be arraigned on Tuesday. But that's not completely

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Speaker 1: written in the stone either. I've written before that I

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Speaker 1: think that Alvin Bragg's case is relatively flimsy relative to

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Speaker 1: some of the other investigations and prosecutions that are ongoing.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that this was the best case you

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Speaker 1: would want to bring to him, bring it out of

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Speaker 1: that office at this point in time against a former president,

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Speaker 1: but he's chosen to do so. And Donald Trump has

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Speaker 1: spent decades weaponizing the law law and avoiding any accountability

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Speaker 1: in courtrooms, and at a minimum that that's been pierced

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Speaker 1: you know, he's going to be indicted for the first time.

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Speaker 1: He's the first president to be indicted. But I think

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Speaker 1: in his own narrow world, it's also the first time

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Speaker 1: he's been indicted, and he's going to react against that

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Speaker 1: in strident ways. Let me let me ask Tim Matt

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Speaker 1: Miller here, by the way, thanks for joining us. Let

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Speaker 1: me let me ask about Alvin Bragg, because I thought

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Speaker 1: Bragg was less likely to indict Trump. In fact, I

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Speaker 1: thought a couple of the people in his office wanted

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Speaker 1: to indict Trump previously and quit because they were so

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Speaker 1: angry that they weren't able to stopped by their boss,

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Speaker 1: Alvin Bragg. So what's the deal with this? Remember remember

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Speaker 1: the context of that. So Albert Bragge inherits, the case

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Speaker 1: built by Cybance and sivances on. Prosecutors were very split

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Speaker 1: around whether or not they had enough evidence to take

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Speaker 1: to court on a criminal charge. Remember a criminal charge,

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Speaker 1: the standard is the you have to prove intent on

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Speaker 1: the part of the perpetrator. It's a very high bar,

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Speaker 1: and I think the people in Sivance's office were very

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Speaker 1: split down the middle on this around whether or not

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Speaker 1: they had the mojo to take it to court. Dance

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Speaker 1: basically leaves dumps this on Bragg's desk without resolving it.

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Speaker 1: Brad comes in, he looks at it. He decides that

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Speaker 1: there's too much division here. We can't bring this particular

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Speaker 1: case involving you know, I think years and years of

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Speaker 1: financial fraud allegation. But he goes down a new path

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Speaker 1: based on other evidence he has involving the payments to

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Speaker 1: store Mey Daniels and bookkeeping fraud attendant to that that.

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Speaker 1: We know that that's one thing he's looked at. Here's

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Speaker 1: the coveat on that. There's been reporting out there that

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Speaker 1: say there maybe more than thirty counts in this indictment.

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Speaker 1: He could well have assembled other evidence well beyond the

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Speaker 1: Stormy Daniels thing. I think for this case to app

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Speaker 1: gravitas and traction, it needs to have actually much more

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Speaker 1: than that. Well is this reminds me of you know,

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Speaker 1: when Merrick Garland had the FED raid Mara Lago. We

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Speaker 1: all thought, man in order to do that, he must

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Speaker 1: have something serious, But it so far doesn't look like

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Speaker 1: he has anything serious. Well, wait a minute, you know,

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Speaker 1: we have to let the legal system work through these things.

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Speaker 1: The Moral Lago incident is very serious. Federal authorities believe

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Speaker 1: he violated the Aspeona Jact. Potentially there are classified documents

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Speaker 1: that he took down there without handling it in proper

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Speaker 1: ways that any president, regardless of par or persuasion, should observe. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, we have a president in office right now

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Speaker 1: who don't interrupt me. Matt. I know you're prone to

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Speaker 1: do that, but i'm your cast, so hear me out.

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Speaker 1: The legal system is there as a process to protect

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Speaker 1: all of us, regardless of party. It can be flawed,

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Speaker 1: it can be inexact, but it is there for a reason,

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Speaker 1: and there's very good reason. The Moral Lago incident is

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Speaker 1: being examined, and it should be regardless who was in

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Speaker 1: the in the white outs, and we don't know what

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Speaker 1: they have yet. So we have to be patient with

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Speaker 1: this so we can get properly aired publicly. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's true of all of these cases. Patience is

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Speaker 1: not one of my virtues. I know that. So Tim,

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Speaker 1: help us put into content. I mean, we have the

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Speaker 1: New York City issue, won't get more clarity on it

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Speaker 1: next week when it's unsealed. Help us frame out the

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Speaker 1: other risks for the former president in terms of this

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Speaker 1: federal investigation as well as the investigation in Georgia, because

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Speaker 1: those seems to seem to be on the first read,

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Speaker 1: more serious and perhaps more of a problem for mister Trump.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that they are. I honestly think you know.

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Speaker 1: There's a civil case in New York, New York ag

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Speaker 1: she's a Democrat, that one could it's a civil case.

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Speaker 1: It could result in a serious financial penalty. It could

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Speaker 1: put him out of business in New York. It's not

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Speaker 1: going to put him in prison. It's not going to

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Speaker 1: prevent him from running for the president. For the presidency

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Speaker 1: in Georgia, there's a criminal case there by the Fulton

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Speaker 1: County District Attorney Fani Willis that involves voting fraud. That

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Speaker 1: is also unlikely to put him in jail. It also

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Speaker 1: won't prevent him for running for president. Eugene Debs ran

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Speaker 1: for president as a socialist from jail about one hundred

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Speaker 1: years ago. Lyndon the Lararuge, a serial tax dodger, ran

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Speaker 1: the for presidency for the presidency a number of times,

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Speaker 1: even though he've been convicted of tax run crimes. Don't

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Speaker 1: keep you out of the office. What keeps you out

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Speaker 1: of the office is if you've led an insurrection. The

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Speaker 1: fourteenth Amendment specifically points at insurrection as a disqualifying factor.

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Speaker 1: It was instituted after the Civil War to prevent Confederate

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Speaker 1: seditionists from running for office. That's in the DOJ case

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Speaker 1: with the January sixth prosecution. In my mind, the moral

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Speaker 1: Lago case, the in the January sixth case, those investigations

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Speaker 1: are the only things that's going to keep him out

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Speaker 1: of office. And potentially, and even they may not so

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Speaker 1: for I think for people who have an emotional investment

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Speaker 1: in the outcome of these that they think ultimately these

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Speaker 1: are the only things they're going to stop Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: from inhabiting the White House. That's a splender threat. The

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Speaker 1: only they keeps Trump out of the White House ultimately,

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Speaker 1: I think our voters. So by the way, I just

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Speaker 1: want to point out we were talking this morning, and

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Speaker 1: I'm sure a lot of people we'll talk about this.

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Speaker 1: Tim you probably already know about it. I thought Trump

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Speaker 1: would be would have been the first president ever arrested

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Speaker 1: after office, and some reports of surface that Ulysses S.

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Speaker 1: Grant had been arrested for speeding in the late eighteen

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Speaker 1: on a horse's feeding on a horse, Yes, exactly. I

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Speaker 1: find it incredibly hard to believe that's a good story, though, Tim,

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Speaker 1: what do you think this? How do you think the

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Speaker 1: other I don't know, Republican potential nominees. How do you

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Speaker 1: think they're going to position themselves here? Are they going

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Speaker 1: to just maybe lay low and let a play out.

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Speaker 1: I think it's tricky, you know. I think Pence came

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Speaker 1: out and defended Trump the Santis has. I think the

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Speaker 1: tricky thing in terms of the politics of this is

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump has a very firm hold on about

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Speaker 1: thirty percent of the Republican Party. It makes them an

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Speaker 1: important fact in the primary races. He has I think

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Speaker 1: statally turned off independent moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats, like

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Speaker 1: the sort of middle middle tier of voters I think

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Speaker 1: now know who he is, and it hobbles him as

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Speaker 1: a national candidate. So the party has kind of held

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Speaker 1: hostage to getting new people out on the stage who

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Speaker 1: can get through the primary process without being capped by

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Speaker 1: Trump while still being viable national candidates. And I think

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Speaker 1: each of those individuals, Santists, Haley, they're all trying to

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Speaker 1: navigate around that. I think they don't want to be

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Speaker 1: appearing to be exactly in the same boat as Trump

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Speaker 1: or supporting some of his you know, some of his

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Speaker 1: greater obscenities. On the other hand, they also know that

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Speaker 1: they need his voters. So it's a tricky balance. I think, Tim,

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Speaker 1: just about twenty thirty seconds, is a Trump voter? Can

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Speaker 1: a Trump voter be a Decantist voter supporter or a

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Speaker 1: Haley supporter? Yeah, they can, I think so. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think I think they can. I think that, I

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Speaker 1: think that. I just don't think enough. I don't think

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Speaker 1: you can. I don't think de Santists or Haley can

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Speaker 1: win only with Trump voters. Yeah, I think they need

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Speaker 1: Trump voters plus moderates. And how do you thread that needle.

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Speaker 1: It's like watching a hostage video. Yeah, yeah, all right, Tim,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for taking the time. You really wanted

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Speaker 1: to get your perspective and opinion here. Tim O'Brien's is

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Speaker 1: a senior executive editor for Bloomberg Opinion Again. He wrote

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Speaker 1: The Trump Nation, The Art of Being the Donald in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and five. It was described as the definitive

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Speaker 1: biography of Donald Trump. So he has a lot of

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Speaker 1: personal experience reporting on President Trump. We're gonna more coming up.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Team Cancer Live program,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am easting on Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. Some

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Speaker 1: latest reporting on this Trump in Diamond that hit the

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Speaker 1: tape late afternoon yesterday. Amory Horder in Washington, correspondent with

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Law hosts June Grasso. They joined

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Speaker 1: us here, both in studio. We appreciate that they both

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Speaker 1: get the coveted gold star for being in studio. So, June,

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Speaker 1: I want to start with you from a legal perspective,

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Speaker 1: is this a good case? Well, first, let me say

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Speaker 1: that we do not know exactly what the case is. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is all speculation because the grandjury indictment is still

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Speaker 1: under seal. If what we think it is is actually

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Speaker 1: what it is, then it's a novel case. I mean,

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Speaker 1: week or strong. It's it's different, It's never been done before.

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Speaker 1: It's taking as it's taking a misdemeanor, which is the

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Speaker 1: falsifying of business records and do and in order to

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Speaker 1: make it a felony. I mean, they're not. They don't

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Speaker 1: want to bring a People are complaining that they're even

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Speaker 1: bringing this case. They don't want to bring a misdemeanor

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Speaker 1: against the president. So former president, and so you take

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Speaker 1: the falsifying business records, and you have to show that

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Speaker 1: that Trump also had an intent to defraud that included

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Speaker 1: an intent to commit we're thinking a second crime of

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Speaker 1: election campaign finance violations. I mean, that's what we're thinking.

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Speaker 1: So you're taking two, you're taking a felony and a

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Speaker 1: misdemeanor and hooking them together. And it's it hasn't been

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Speaker 1: done by New York prosecutors. I don't know if it's

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Speaker 1: been done by any want anyone. So there's a chance

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Speaker 1: that I don't think a judge would dismiss it before

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Speaker 1: went to trial, because you want to get the jury verdict,

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Speaker 1: and a judge is not going to be the one

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Speaker 1: out against Donald Trump. So but after on appeal, I

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Speaker 1: mean an appellate cord could reverse Okay, So, Anne Marie

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Speaker 1: from the political perspective, here again, the first time a

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Speaker 1: former president has been indicted. What's the feeling in Washington,

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Speaker 1: what's the feeling about and the first time Trump's been

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Speaker 1: indicted and the first time Trump's which that's I think

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Speaker 1: more shocking. Exactly exactly what's the feeling from Washington. Well,

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Speaker 1: he's not just a former president, he's also a candidate

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Speaker 1: And he's right now he's is their front runner. He's

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Speaker 1: winning in all their polls for twenty twenty four. So

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Speaker 1: what you can imagine is that for Washington, this is

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Speaker 1: just hardening those political divides. The one place you will

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Speaker 1: not see a comment from is the White House. President

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Speaker 1: Biden left this morning to go to Mississippi, and he

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Speaker 1: was asked repeatedly, you have a comment asking anything about

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Speaker 1: the indictment, any thoughts at all. I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: comment on that. I'm not going to comment on that.

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Speaker 1: The Republicans in Congress, though, there's talk of them even

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Speaker 1: sending out a subpoena to Alvin brag because they think

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Speaker 1: that this is well, they're calling it outrageous. So this

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Speaker 1: is not going away. But we should also know, and

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Speaker 1: this is something that potentially can coalesce around the president

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Speaker 1: in the next few months, is this is only one

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Speaker 1: of a number of cases that their former president is

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Speaker 1: under investigation for and looks like right now, from what

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Speaker 1: we know, and as June points out, we don't yet

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Speaker 1: know what the act looks like the weakest and least

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Speaker 1: important of any right. I mean, you've got a much

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Speaker 1: more important case, it seems in Georgia. You've got a

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Speaker 1: much more serious civil case. Here in New York you've

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Speaker 1: got a serious federal capital cases. So yeah, but the

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Speaker 1: prosecutor can't look at what other prosecutors are doing. He's

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Speaker 1: got his own grand jury that he called. What is

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Speaker 1: he supposed to say, Okay, grand jury, go home for

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Speaker 1: a year, come back. Wish you can anyway, go home

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Speaker 1: and come back, and will you know, after Georgia indits,

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Speaker 1: then will indite. He's on his own track, and he

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Speaker 1: has other problems to think about. He has statute of limitations,

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Speaker 1: problems and all kinds of things to think about it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I do admit. You know Mark Palmerantz, who

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Speaker 1: was a former prosecutor there who made a big deal

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Speaker 1: about Trump, right, he called this case the zombie case.

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Speaker 1: He said, it's been called the zombie case because it's

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Speaker 1: been dead and then revived so many times. So obviously,

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Speaker 1: you know, if it's been dead and then revived that

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Speaker 1: it's not the strongest of cases. So but you got

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Speaker 1: to sound resilient, are resiliently exactly how you watch that

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Speaker 1: this is us? Yes? Yeah, the last of us that

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Speaker 1: was they did you? I mean, you've heard the criticisms

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Speaker 1: from Republicans that this is you know, personal even um,

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Speaker 1: that it's a witch hunt. Obviously that's the term that

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Speaker 1: they've used since before he was an elected the first time.

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Speaker 1: But does Alvin brag have some kind of personal vendetto

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Speaker 1: or issue with Donald Trump that we've seen any hint

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Speaker 1: of previously. No. I mean, he did have a case

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Speaker 1: against him when he was in the Attorney General's office,

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Speaker 1: but he wasn't one of the people who ran on

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Speaker 1: I'm going to prosecute Trump. He didn't. He would say

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Speaker 1: I can't really talk about that in case the case

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Speaker 1: comes before me. That old line. So, I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: no And he's also a very careful man. He's a

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Speaker 1: very known as a careful prosecutor who'll go over things

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Speaker 1: and over things. So I have to believe that if

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Speaker 1: he's bringing this case he thinks he can get a conviction.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's pretty sure of himself, because I don't

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Speaker 1: think you'd bring a case like this unless you're sure

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Speaker 1: that you can get a conviction. Remember he was the

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Speaker 1: one that initially decided in February of twenty twenty two

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Speaker 1: not to pursue an indictment. Yeah. Well, I mean this

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Speaker 1: reminds me to some extent of the Marlagoid, which we

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Speaker 1: said at the time, like, wow, you can't raid the

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Speaker 1: ex president's house. We also said that it wasn't a

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Speaker 1: raid because it was it has subpoena to get there.

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Speaker 1: Only people who are divorced from reality only needed a

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Speaker 1: subpoena because they wouldn't turn over these highly classified documents.

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Speaker 1: I just everyone was waiting to see a smoking gun

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Speaker 1: from Merrick Garland and we haven't. Well, no, there's a

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Speaker 1: special counsel. This is being investigated. Special the special counsel

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Speaker 1: is has been serving subpoenas on people. He's gotten He's

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Speaker 1: gotten Trump's lawyer to testify about attorney client privilege by

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Speaker 1: using the crime fraud exception that tells you that a

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Speaker 1: judge thinks there's a crime there. Otherwise you don't have

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Speaker 1: the crime fraud exception. Right, He's got all these pieces

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Speaker 1: got Mark Meadows coming in vice president of Evans Mike

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Speaker 1: Pants he also had a He also just won this

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Speaker 1: week his case against Mike Pens, forcing him to come

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Speaker 1: in to testify, but leaving a few things out because

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Speaker 1: of the all the balls in the air, Guys, do

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Speaker 1: we have any sense of timing for the federal case

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Speaker 1: the Georgia? Is this measured in weeks? Months? Even more? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: More more? Okay? But first of all, you know, we

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Speaker 1: don't know yet when Georgia. That investigation has been going

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Speaker 1: on longer than any other, and special grand jury came

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Speaker 1: back with its recommendations and she's still as as far

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Speaker 1: as I know, has not called another grand jury to

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Speaker 1: indict the you know, the special Council. Who knows how

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Speaker 1: long that'll take. But in this case, the last trial

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Speaker 1: against Trump took up eighteen months I think to get

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Speaker 1: to trial, and that was the checks Broad case. So

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Speaker 1: who knows how long this will take to get to Well,

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Speaker 1: hopefully it gets steals before November twenty twenty four, right, Well,

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Speaker 1: that would be ideal. But June's point, that's we don't

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Speaker 1: know that this stuff takes a very long time. Also,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter, I mean in our history, American history.

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Speaker 1: We had Eugene Devs who campaigned and ran for president

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Speaker 1: when he was in jail on the Socialist part in

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Speaker 1: the nineteen twenty Okay, this no. What I'm saying is

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Speaker 1: even if the president, even if the president is going

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Speaker 1: through this, maybe his party will want to say, we

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Speaker 1: don't want to deal with this drama and we're going

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Speaker 1: to choose another candidate. But he could still run for president. True,

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Speaker 1: unless he gets busted for inciting an insurrection. Right, I'm

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Speaker 1: talking about specifically about the New York case. Oh well,

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Speaker 1: I'm talking about the other cases, the big ones. You know,

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Speaker 1: Georgia him from holding federal office one hundred percent. And

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Speaker 1: it's unlikely now that he lacks support from his party,

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Speaker 1: right because complete opposite what you are seeing is the

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Speaker 1: base is coming out, they are donating. He is campaigning

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Speaker 1: off of this. Since he said I will be arrested,

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Speaker 1: he has been sending out campaign letters. He has been

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Speaker 1: talking about it. You saw his rally in Waco, Texas, saying,

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Speaker 1: I am the one that it is a victim here.

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Speaker 1: I need your support. Look at what these Democrats are doing,

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Speaker 1: and he's forcing every Republican to make decision on who

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Speaker 1: they stand by. So not only going to see the

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Speaker 1: hardening of politics between Democrats and Republicans, I think you'll

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Speaker 1: see a hardening of politics within the Republican Party. Those

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Speaker 1: that say we need to lean into him and support

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Speaker 1: the former president, those that say he didn't win us

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Speaker 1: the midterm elections. He didn't win the last election. It's

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Speaker 1: time we move on to a new leader. When does

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Speaker 1: it get tiring? The witch hunt thing? I'm a victim.

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Speaker 1: I can't. I can't believe he's still able to raise

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Speaker 1: money on that. He's been saying that for how many

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Speaker 1: years before he became a president. So, I mean, it'd

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Speaker 1: be interesting to see how this shakes out. And from

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Speaker 1: the Washington perspective, how aggressive do you think the Republicans

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Speaker 1: and Congress will get here? Well, they'll be incredibly aggressive.

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Speaker 1: We already before the former president was indicted, you had

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Speaker 1: Jim Jordan, you had James Komer. They're coming out sending

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Speaker 1: letters to Alvin Bragg. They want him to come to DC.

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Speaker 1: They want a hearing about this. But it's it's adhering

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Speaker 1: to nowhere. Right, the Republicans only hold the House. All

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Speaker 1: of this is going to be posturing and it does

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Speaker 1: remove a lot of oxygen in the room for some

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Speaker 1: other big issues they're supposed to be tackling. I just

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Speaker 1: have to say one thing. I can't imagine Alvin Bragg

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Speaker 1: going to Washington heard a committee. They want information on

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Speaker 1: a grand jury that's secret, and they want information on

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Speaker 1: what the prosecutor's office is doing before a trial that's

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Speaker 1: not going to happen. Posturing. Posturing is a word, all right. Guys,

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Speaker 1: Hemory Horder and Jeran Grassop, both from Bloomberg News and

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television, bring us the latest year. You're listening to

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Speaker 1: the tape Cancer Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten

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Speaker 1: Com and the Bloomberg Business Half. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. Take a look

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Speaker 1: again at this story President Trump being former President Trumping

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Speaker 1: indicted by New York and what it really means for

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Speaker 1: the political landscape, not just for mister Trump, but also

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Speaker 1: for the general presidential election coming up in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: We can do that today with the Director of the

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Speaker 1: Center for American Politics and Policy for Around University, Professor

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Speaker 1: Wendy Schiller joins us professor, thanks so much for taking

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Speaker 1: the time here. I mean, just you know, incredible news

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Speaker 1: broke yesterday about the indictment from New York. What do

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Speaker 1: you think the political implications are for Let's just start first,

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Speaker 1: for the former president. Well, I mean, he'll get a

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Speaker 1: lot of attention. Trump loves attention, and he will be

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Speaker 1: able to shore up his support within the Party's already

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Speaker 1: asking for small level donations like twenty four, twenty five

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Speaker 1: dollars or something. I think he's doing twenty four dollars

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Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four for his defense, So it'll be

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Speaker 1: a short term boost for him. And if people like

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Speaker 1: Ronda Santis or Tim Scott or thinking he's already in

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Speaker 1: the race, but Mike Pompeo anybody else is thinking of running,

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Speaker 1: if they wait too long, he'll just soak up all

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Speaker 1: of that momentum, energy and oxygen and he may actually

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Speaker 1: gain a lead that might be hard to surmount, even

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Speaker 1: though voting hasn't even begune in the primers, does this case,

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Speaker 1: Wendy matter to potential Trump voters? I mean, even Republicans

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Speaker 1: who don't necessarily support them all the time. Do they

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Speaker 1: care if he paid hush money to a former porn star.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure. It's the nature of the accusations as

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Speaker 1: the fact that the doors now open to indict them

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Speaker 1: for other things that I think they do care about,

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Speaker 1: like interfering with the election results in Georgia or promoting

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Speaker 1: violence on January sixth. I mean, I think that's the

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Speaker 1: big question mark here. The political jeopardy for Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: is not necessarily in this indictment. It's the fact that

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Speaker 1: he is indicted at all, and that the Manhattan DA

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Speaker 1: has taken this step means that other district attorneys or

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Speaker 1: the United States Justice Department could feel a little bit

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Speaker 1: more comfortable indicting a former president since they won't be

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Speaker 1: the first ones. Now, all right, So let's say your

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Speaker 1: Rhonda Santis or any of the other Mister Mike Pence

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Speaker 1: and the other folks think, hey, Nicky Haley, thank you

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Speaker 1: that maybe considering running against former President TRUMPO. How do

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Speaker 1: you think they should play her? How do you think

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Speaker 1: they will play it? Well, you know, there's a real

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Speaker 1: big gulf. I mean, it's a really great question. There's

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Speaker 1: a big gulf between how the potential presidential candidates should

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Speaker 1: play and how the House of Representatives. Republicans are going

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Speaker 1: to have to play it because you know, you can

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Speaker 1: get in, get out, and you can say, well, maybe

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Speaker 1: it doesn't go his way, or you can't give them

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Speaker 1: all that you know, it's just going to cloud everything

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Speaker 1: else is going to be the Trump story. You can't

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Speaker 1: give them all that press all the time, you just

427
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 1: will never get any momentum. Nicky Haley already announced essentially,

428
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 1: and we're still treating her as a maybe. So I

429
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 1: think this is the big dilemma for them. And if

430
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 1: you're Lawanda Santis and your argument is that, well, i'll

431
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 1: have to wait till the Florida legislature goes out, I

432
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 1: think that's the end of April, if I'm not mistaken.

433
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: You know that's a whole month away. That's you know,

434
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: you're leaving a month full of a press hole for

435
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And if you want to be president United States,

436
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: chops take a risk. You have to be willing to

437
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 1: jump in and say I support at the former president,

438
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 1: but I also think I'll be a good president. Pay

439
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: attention to me. Are there any Republicans who other than

440
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 1: Liz Cheney who say I don't support the former president.

441
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 1: I think he incited violence at the Capitol and did

442
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 1: a disservice to our democracy by doubting the twenty twenty election.

443
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: Or are they all pretty much behind him, because even

444
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: Mike Pence, you know, even Mike Pence seems to still

445
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 1: support Donald Trump. After Trump essentially like put the knife

446
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 1: in his back. Well, I've actually left him in an

447
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: extraordinarily dangerous situation, not just like not just you know, literally,

448
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: it's really it's something to behold. I don't think we've

449
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 1: ever seen a former president. Even Nixon when he came

450
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: back in one in sixty eight, didn't have a hold

451
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 1: on the party in sixty four. So it's really you

452
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 1: just haven't seen this kind of hold. And for the

453
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: House Republicans who just won, particularly in New York and

454
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: California for example, the newbies, they're worried about a primary.

455
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: I mean, they're always worried about a primary, but they're

456
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: really worried about a primary, and that primary challenge will

457
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: come from an avid Trump supporter. So the House Republicans

458
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 1: have to be behind Donald Trump now for their own

459
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 1: individual survival. That means McCarthy has to be behind him

460
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: a speaker, because he can't stay speaker if he doesn't

461
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 1: keep the house. So it puts them in his bind,

462
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: and then the party can't move forward, and so they're

463
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 1: they're really stuck. And unless somebody else is an alternative,

464
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: they can say they believe everything Trump believes, but without

465
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 1: the baggage, then there's nowhere for them to turn and

466
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 1: it's sort of almost a stalemate within the Republican Party.

467
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: All right, profession we want to get the legal side

468
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: of this right now. We can do that with a

469
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: former federal prosecutor and former special counsel to Robert Mueller

470
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: when you worked at the DOJ, that is Michael Zelden. Michael,

471
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. What do you

472
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 1: make of the legal case for New York against former

473
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 1: President Trump? Here that was I know it hasn't been unsealed,

474
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: but what we know now, Well, first, of course, as

475
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: you just said, we have to wait for it to

476
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: be unsealed to see exactly what he's charged with, because

477
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of speculation about that. But going

478
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: with what's been available to us in the public record,

479
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 1: it appears that he'll be charged with multiple counts of

480
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: business record misstatements that will be each time Trump Org

481
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 1: made a repayment to Michael Cohen as quote unquote a

482
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: legal fee about ten or twelve of those those will

483
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 1: be separate counts of business records violations. Then the question'll

484
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: be will they make that into that group of misdemeanors

485
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 1: into a felony by saying all those payments were made

486
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: for the purpose of evading federal election or state election

487
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: violations because they were hiding him from the Federal Elections Commission,

488
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 1: and therefore it's a felony. So that's what we're thinking

489
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: will likely be the case, multiple business records cases and

490
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 1: then federal election felony on top of the business records. Michael,

491
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 1: what's the distinction here between state and federal because this is,

492
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: you know, a New York DA and I've heard a

493
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: lot of people say, well, it's going to be hard

494
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 1: to appeal it to a federal appeals corrid or get

495
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 1: it up to that level from here. Well, it's not

496
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: a matter of whether it's appealed or not appealed. The

497
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: question is a difficult legal question is can you take

498
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 1: a state violation the business records and turn it into

499
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 1: a felony where the felony is a federal felony. If

500
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: they have a state felony and they say the business

501
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:44,479
Speaker 1: records misstatements were made to further the state felony, then

502
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 1: they're on solid ground. If they're saying it was to

503
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 1: further a federal felony, then you have this tricky business

504
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: of a state crime being enhanced by violating a federal law,

505
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: and that has not been tested, Professor Schiller. To the

506
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 1: extent that these federal issues move forward in the does

507
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,479
Speaker 1: that change the calculus a political calculus for for mister Trump,

508
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 1: for maybe presidential Candidas, and maybe in his supporting Congress.

509
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: He's the political calculation. Mister Dulton's incredibly articulate. And I

510
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 1: was listening closely, but not everybody has the time to

511
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 1: listen this closely. This is a complicated case. It's probably

512
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 1: the most complicated indictment that might come down against the

513
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: former president if we look at all the possible ranges

514
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 1: of charges he faces in other cases. It's very hard

515
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: to sell, it's very hard to explain. Republicans know that,

516
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: and Democrats are just chomping at the bit to have

517
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 1: this man held accountable whatever way they can, so they

518
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,239
Speaker 1: don't really care what the nature of the case is.

519
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 1: It matters, I think also to know that it's unclear

520
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 1: this would even prohibit him from running for office. Even

521
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 1: it gets convicted and serves time and comes out again,

522
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 1: he may still be able to run for office. So

523
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: I mean, there are all sorts of ways in which

524
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: the real on the ground applications for most people are,

525
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 1: you know, did he d lie, did he break the law,

526
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 1: what did he do? Or I just I can't stand

527
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: them and I want to see him punished. And I

528
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 1: think these are this is the political environment in which

529
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: these messages are going to be sent out by both parties.

530
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: He does seem to be the test Tethlon Don does

531
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: Michael Zelden, do you see in any of these cases

532
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: in Georgia on the federal level, any likelihood that Donald

533
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: Trump is you know, found guilty and you know, not

534
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 1: able to run for president because he claims he's a

535
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: completely innocent person. Well, let's leave his claim aside for

536
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 1: a second. The only crime that would in theory bar

537
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: him from running for president again is if he's convicted

538
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: of seditious conspiracy. In the January Sixth case, the Florida case,

539
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: the Georgia case, this New York case. None of them

540
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: would bar him from running for office again. He might

541
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: have convicted as a felon not be able to vote,

542
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: but he can still run. And so that's not really

543
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 1: on the table except for a seditious conspiracy. And you know,

544
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 1: whether he is able to capitalize this on political grounds

545
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 1: really remains to be seen, because, as the professor indicated,

546
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: there is a need, I think in the Republican Party

547
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: for them to move past Trump and his demagoguery. I

548
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: don't think that is a sustainable general election party, but

549
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 1: they're right now tethered to him, and they are unwilling

550
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 1: for short term benefit to individual members willing to move

551
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: beyond that. So they're sacrificing the long term health of

552
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 1: their party for their individual short term benefit, like Speaker McCarthy,

553
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 1: and that's you know, their choice. YEP, it is all right, Michael,

554
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. Michael Zelden, former

555
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: federal prosecutor, the former special counselor Robert Muller when he

556
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 1: worked at the DJ and also the professor Wendy Schiller.

557
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: She's a director of the Center for American politics and

558
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 1: policy for Brown University. You're listening to the Team Cancer,

559
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: a live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am easting

560
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg dot Com, the I Heart Radio app, and

561
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. We're listening on demand wherever you

562
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 1: get your podcast. I'm gonna go rate to our next guest,

563
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: John Authors. He's an opending columnist for Bloomberg News. And

564
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 1: you can probably tell he's not from these parts. He's English,

565
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: he's not from around He's not from around here. But

566
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: somehow he's become a rabid Red Sox fan. I have

567
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: no idea how that happened. But he's got a piece

568
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: out today where he's gonna tie in moneyball the opening

569
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: of baseball season to investing. I have no idea how

570
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: he tried to do that, But John, give us your

571
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: thoughts here on moneyball investing. Okay, just first making sure

572
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 1: you know that I do have a US passport. Okay, yeah,

573
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 1: but you live in New York. Why are you Red

574
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 1: Sox fan? My first experience that this wonderful country was

575
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 1: an exchange student of the high school in Belmont, mass

576
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,719
Speaker 1: And this is true. So I stayed with a family

577
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 1: and the oldest brother was away at college, and I

578
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: had his bedroom, and I slept my first night in

579
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: this country underneath a signed photograph of Bobby or I

580
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 1: had no choice. I have been a hardcore Boston plan

581
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: even though I've never never picked up a Boston accent,

582
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: which is which I think it could all be grateful now.

583
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 1: In terms of baseball, basically, the rule changes that they've

584
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: made for this season are very interesting, and I think

585
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: they reflect the way baseball has moved in its use

586
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 1: of stats and data, and that there's a very close

587
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 1: parallel there with the way markets have moved. That quants

588
00:32:55,480 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: and factory investors have steadily got ever more sophisticated in

589
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: their use of stats, which has required everybody else to

590
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: get that much more sophisticated, with the result that you

591
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: have a market where it's very difficult for new entrance

592
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: to have any success at all unless they've got some

593
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: really powerful computers, which is not so dissimilar from the

594
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 1: baseball revolution of looking at the launch angle with which

595
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: you hit the ball, looking at measures for applying the shift,

596
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 1: and so on, that ruthlessly using stats to organize your

597
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 1: baseball team increases your chance of winning and makes it

598
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 1: a much worse spectacle and much harder for others to compete.

599
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: So that was that's my basic comparison there, and so

600
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: bringing it to investing, how does that work? Which is

601
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: much less interesting. So, well, we don't have the same

602
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 1: kind of rule changes, do we. I mean, baseball started

603
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: yesterday and they got a twenty second shot clock essentially

604
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 1: pitch clock. You can only what you can only try

605
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: and pick off a runner twice. Yes, then apparently the

606
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: bigger Yeah, the basses are bigger. Fourteenth inning, you get

607
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 1: a runner on base if you get out that far

608
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: on second base. Um, that's I have a bit of

609
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 1: a problem with it. But then I'm a purist. That

610
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: seems gimmicky to me. Yes, but the I mean, the

611
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 1: Red Sox managed to lose their first game of the

612
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: season ten nine, and even though there was that much scoring,

613
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: it barely lasted more than three hours, which which is

614
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 1: something you'd normally expect the game. If only soccer would

615
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 1: do something like that, well, sucker lasting more than nineteen

616
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: minutes or less than nineteen minutes. And anyway, Okay, I

617
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: thought you wanted to worth investing, so yeah, in terms

618
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 1: of in terms of investing, yes, You're quite right. There

619
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 1: is no um. There's no equivalent of theo Epstein to

620
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: come in and change the rules on you. In investing,

621
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 1: it's ultimately the market. The way people behave, the way

622
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: they invest, the way they deploy funds changes the way

623
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: the market behaves. But there is no opportunity to just

624
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,240
Speaker 1: change the rules. I think what you have is an

625
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: arms race where more and more people are going to

626
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 1: spend ever more money trying to get data for every subtle,

627
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 1: little extra edge they can get. So it's no longer

628
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: about analyzing, which is this is what happened in money ball.

629
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 1: You take these traditional statistics like batting average, which is

630
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: a really misconceived notion, unfortunately, dating back to a British

631
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 1: journalist called Henry Chadwick in the nineteenth century look him up,

632
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 1: who misapplied concepts from crickets. I'm very embarrassed about this,

633
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 1: but initially looking for things like value stocks, momentum stocks,

634
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:02,439
Speaker 1: and so on was analogous what Michael Lewis wrote about

635
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,959
Speaker 1: in Moneyball. It's taking the stats we can all see

636
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: and looking at them more cleverly. This now is like

637
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,919
Speaker 1: using your laser gun and your brilliant cameras to see

638
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 1: launch angles and defensive positioning or whatever. It's a crunching

639
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: data on trades, on credit card purchases, on you name.

640
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 1: It's analyzing text of every time of CEO speaks in

641
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 1: public or whatever, anything that might conceivably get a new edge. Yes, yes, exactly.

642
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 1: See who's see who's still got a lot of cars

643
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 1: in there in their warehouse or who hasn't or whatever.

644
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 1: And I don't see how this ends because there is

645
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 1: no CEO epstein of the market to just say no,

646
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 1: we're going to stop doing it that way now. So

647
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 1: I suspect what you see is that investing will become

648
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: a game of people investing ever more silly amounts of

649
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: money in crunching data ever more precisely. And that does

650
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: you know. Obviously this concerns about TikTok and so on,

651
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: about the lack of privacy these days. I think that

652
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: probably means that the investment industry will come face to

653
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: face with the people who are worried about that private

654
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 1: privacy in the in the surveillance state. So, I mean,

655
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: we've had data, high speed trading, all this stuff has

656
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 1: been in the market for a while now, I mean

657
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 1: in AI yeah, so I guess your contention, John, and

658
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 1: you know, get used to it, because it ain't going

659
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 1: any word, and in fact, it's going to get become

660
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:46,800
Speaker 1: more the piece I wrote, just remember the main point.

661
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: There was a very interesting piece of research coming out

662
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: of Mannumert showing that factors are decaying, that they are

663
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 1: not so the value factor, of the momentum factor and

664
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 1: so on are not working as well as they used to.

665
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: They have ask people have thrown more armory at exploiting

666
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,720
Speaker 1: anomalies when they can find them, those anomally steadily go away,

667
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 1: and so yes, a lot of this has been around

668
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 1: for a long time, but we're getting to the point

669
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 1: where you no longer have an edge by doing those

670
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: things in the same way that Billybean no longer has

671
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 1: an age by looking on base percentage, and that requires

672
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 1: you to pay more money to get ever more. Excuse dates, John,

673
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 1: We had some economic data came out today. A lot

674
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 1: of folks are focusing on inflation these days. Came in

675
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 1: a little bit better than expect it a little bit

676
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: a little bit, and what's your region as to how

677
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 1: our federal reserve will We'll look at this data. I

678
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: haven't had the chance to go crunching through all of

679
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 1: the angles of it. Yet I, at first glance, I

680
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 1: don't think it means that they don't hike. I think

681
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 1: the way the market has recovered as swiftly as it has,

682
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: and that the early signs that there really is so

683
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: much deposit flight going on suggest that the banking crisis

684
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 1: really isn't a reason for them to stay their hand,

685
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: and it's still too far above targets for them to

686
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: seem to change course at this point. Isn't it comforting

687
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: if they hike a little? I mean, I felt good

688
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 1: after the ECB did exactly There was a risk. I

689
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: criticized for saying this at the time, and if if

690
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: they had not hiked at all, or even cutters, some

691
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 1: people would have thought that would have been a very

692
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 1: clear signal. The said is a charge of regulating the

693
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 1: banking system, and they obviously think something really bad has

694
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 1: just happened. That confidence does have its own self reinforcing factors,

695
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 1: particularly when you're talking about banking. If people lose confidence

696
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: in the back, it will lose it will lose all

697
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 1: its deposits, even though there's nothing wrong with it. So

698
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 1: I think they probably made the right call this month

699
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: with the twenty five bits, the market at the moment

700
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 1: thinks we'll get another twenty five bits and that will

701
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 1: be the end of it. I think that's a reasonable baseline.

702
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 1: I'm still nervous about we need more inflation. I'm still

703
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 1: nervous about the notion that Rachel will be coming down

704
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:21,879
Speaker 1: by the end of being Hey, Johnny, you mentioned that

705
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 1: you've gained your US citizenship. Good for you, but I'm

706
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 1: guessing you're still an Englishman at heart. May eighth, the

707
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: Carnation of King Charles the third, How locked in or

708
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: are you going to be on that or not? I

709
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: had forgotten that was happening on I thought you were

710
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 1: going to sell me the FA Cup final the day

711
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:46,800
Speaker 1: we see I know that's unblazed these it still feels

712
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: very strange that the national anthem has actually changed to

713
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 1: God's Save the King. It's very strange that the barristers

714
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 1: who bring prosecutions in course aren't gold QC for Queen's

715
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 1: cancel anymore. They oh interesting in the sunshine bands and yes,

716
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:11,919
Speaker 1: so it feels very strange that right this guy's in charge. Well,

717
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 1: I suggest just get a nice point, raise a glass

718
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: and toast your your new King. John Author, Senior editor

719
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Opinion. You're listening to the tape cans are

720
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 1: live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on

721
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the

722
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon

723
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,320
Speaker 1: Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa

724
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: play Bloomberg eleven thirty. Good way to end the week

725
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:44,320
Speaker 1: here on an up note. Good way to end the solid,

726
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 1: ending the week, ending the month, ending the quarter. Exactly right,

727
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 1: that's not too bad again, sp up nine tenths to

728
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 1: one percent. Let's get a sense of kind of what

729
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 1: some of these professional folks are doing at there, what

730
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 1: kind of advice that they given to their clients? And

731
00:41:56,600 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 1: Ahn equity strategist at Wells Fargo joins us, and she was,

732
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 1: I'm going to the part of the Yale varsity sailing team.

733
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 1: That's pretty cool. My son was a sailor at Penn State,

734
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: so that's kind of cool. Those sailing people are a

735
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 1: little strange though, Anna, and thanks for joining us here.

736
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 1: What are you telling your clients here these days? After

737
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 1: a brutal twenty twenty two, but a nice snapback so

738
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: far in the first quarter. Well, you know, the good

739
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,399
Speaker 1: thing about being a sailor, you have that spatial awareness. Yeah,

740
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 1: we're pretty good at that big macro picture, and what

741
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: we're talking to clients spout right now is to not

742
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 1: be fooled by sort of the headstake we've been getting out.

743
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 1: You're right, according to date, markets are up. You're seeing

744
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: pretty strong rally recently, but I think a lot of

745
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 1: that's driven by what we've seen aggressive lowering in yields

746
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 1: and the perception of the head of the end of

747
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,359
Speaker 1: the tightening cycle. I think that's premature and a lot

748
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 1: of that's going to give back. This is the opportunity

749
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:54,399
Speaker 1: to reposition the portfolio. So do you think that means

750
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: this is going to be a pivot point for markets

751
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 1: as well? The last few days there didn't seem to

752
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 1: be much reason for Ralley, and I think a lot

753
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: of it was window dressing and momentum. Does that change

754
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 1: in Q two now? You bring up a good point

755
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 1: about momentum. Part of it was a sort of initial

756
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 1: fight to safety, and then another part of it was

757
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 1: just the natural mechanics the window dressing lower yield growthier stocks,

758
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 1: especially more tech, and you saw the Nastac really rally.

759
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 1: But that rotation for US is coming in which we

760
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: think a lot of those trades could be a longer

761
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: term We want to see growth in the longer term,

762
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:31,240
Speaker 1: but in the immediate term we were pretty much shedding

763
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: a lot of that value exposure. We're staking for lower

764
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 1: balance sheets. That's kind of the direction we're going in.

765
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 1: And how did you in your team at Wells Fargo,

766
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 1: how are you kind of factoring in some of the

767
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: termoil we've seen in the US regional banking space, and

768
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 1: then of course the news which made meet idiosyncratic over

769
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:54,719
Speaker 1: credit suite. So the regional banking fallout that we've seen,

770
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 1: we think there could be much bigger ripple effects because

771
00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 1: what we're talking about here, it's not just a couple

772
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:03,720
Speaker 1: of banks that had a very peculiar situation. It's interest

773
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:07,320
Speaker 1: rate risk. We had the FED tighten at an extremely

774
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 1: aggressive pace, almost unprecedented in history, and that interest rate

775
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 1: risk affects more than just a handful of banks. We

776
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 1: just haven't seen it all come to light yet. On

777
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 1: top of that, you're already seeing regulations coming down, So

778
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:25,920
Speaker 1: that combination of additional regulation and what could be more

779
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 1: problems for banks as they realize their unrealized losses or

780
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 1: as we see more difficulty with credit liquidity due to

781
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 1: the caution in the financial industry. This combined just tightened

782
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 1: financial conditions even if the FED decides to stop. So

783
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:43,839
Speaker 1: that's what we're concerned about here and why we're taking

784
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 1: a little more negative view. But the FED isn't going

785
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 1: to stop, at least this next meeting. We still expect

786
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 1: them to hike twenty five bases points, right, And I

787
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 1: also wonder what your take is on the market pricing

788
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 1: in cuts by year, and it seems terribly unlikely to me,

789
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: but it's happening. If you look at the w RP

790
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: function on the Bloomber terminal, Yeah, looking at it right now,

791
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 1: and you're right, it's happening. But remember about a year ago,

792
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 1: people thought they were going to be cut to mid

793
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 1: year as well, and that had to get priced out.

794
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: As that got priced out, you saw yield rise again

795
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 1: and equities have a difficult time. I think that's something

796
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 1: that we're going to expect again. I think these cuts,

797
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 1: You're right, they're premature and as a market has to

798
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 1: reprice that that kind of turmoil is where we want

799
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 1: to be cautious and make sure we're position in the

800
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 1: right way. But I think longer term when we talk

801
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 1: longer term, right now you've got the ten year nomen

802
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 1: of three half. We think that it can go up

803
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 1: to about three sixty three seventy. The longer term it's

804
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 1: coming back down, and that longer term trend is how

805
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 1: we want a position. That's why we're favoring that long

806
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 1: duration trade. How about valuation here? A lot of folks say,

807
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 1: all right, we might get a trade here on you know,

808
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 1: a pause in the FED, but long term valuation still

809
00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: not our friend here. And given maybe some of the

810
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 1: macro uncertainties out there, how are you guys thinking about that.

811
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 1: We're being very careful about valuation, very particular. What we

812
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 1: want here is growth at the right price. Now that

813
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 1: sounds cheesy and it sounds money on that back in

814
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 1: the day, right and it sounds obvious, But right now

815
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 1: it's easy to grab for growth because you're fearful of

816
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: a recession, or grab for growth because that's kind of

817
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: the safety trade that was ingrained in US when we

818
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 1: had that nice growth momentum trade pre pandemic. But what

819
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 1: we've got to notice now is the better valuations are

820
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 1: slightly down the cap we like, especially the mid growth

821
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 1: MidCap growth space. You're seeing more friendly valuations, you're still

822
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 1: seeing steady growers, and you're still seeing clean balance sheets.

823
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 1: So this combination is a pretty sweet spot for us

824
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 1: that we think there could be more edge rather than

825
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 1: chasing these really big large cap growth names that may

826
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:55,840
Speaker 1: already be too expensive, in particular with some of the

827
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 1: rally we've seen in the last few weeks. What kind

828
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 1: of advice do you give just your average retail investor,

829
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 1: maybe somebody at a bar or ask your take on

830
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: a sixty forty portfolio? Is that dead or is that

831
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 1: still something to stick with after you know it was

832
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 1: turned on its head last year? You know, I really

833
00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: like that question, because when we're talking for the average investor,

834
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 1: I don't think that sixty forty is dead. You know,

835
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 1: you look at certain deals, you look at the market volatility.

836
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 1: Our price target is forty two hundred on that SMP.

837
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 1: We're already at forty eighty five. You know, it's not

838
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: the most attractive price return there. But I think what

839
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:36,879
Speaker 1: I'm emphasize here is to be lower risk when you're

840
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,919
Speaker 1: uncertain and we're not sure they fall out, and really

841
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 1: the full impact of this regional banking crisis. We're expecting

842
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: tighter financial conditions and you just have this turmoil. I

843
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 1: think as a retail investor, you want to be a

844
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 1: little more high quality, lower leverage, you want lower volatility

845
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 1: names and kind of a tighten the book a little

846
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 1: bit so you can see where things shake out. Because

847
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 1: if things turn out for the better, I think that's

848
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 1: something you will have time to reposition into. But for now,

849
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:08,360
Speaker 1: the pain point could really be a downturn in the markets.

850
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 1: We want to avoid that in particular, you know, no

851
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: need to get burned in the high risk names. So

852
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: and as some of the big cap tech names that

853
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 1: had been in stalwarts for the last decade plus a'

854
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 1: actually had a really good start to the year here.

855
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 1: I think Microsoft, Apple, of course Met has got its

856
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 1: own story on the cost cuts. Have they got ahead

857
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 1: of themselves? I think a bit. You know, these big

858
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: cap tech names, it's easy to lump them all together,

859
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: but you look at a lot of it. It's duration risk,

860
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:36,799
Speaker 1: and you know, as you see yields come lower, they

861
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 1: can have that nice rally. They also had some tough

862
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 1: underperformance from last year, so you're seeing a little bit

863
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: of that give back. But to us, when we look

864
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 1: at big cap tech, it's too much of a lump sum,

865
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:50,840
Speaker 1: you know, it's a darling favorites that we see in

866
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 1: the headlines. For us, we like to be particular, you know,

867
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 1: within tech, if you want to be a little more defensive,

868
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: I would suggest more leaning towards software, particularly ven Semis

869
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 1: Semmes had a little more of that cyclical exposure traditionally.

870
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 1: But still it's not that there aren't opportunities in big

871
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,359
Speaker 1: cap tech. We just think it's a little premature because

872
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,799
Speaker 1: you're seeing that risk rally here. But really, if you're

873
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 1: positioning for a year out, then there are opportunities to

874
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 1: be had, but look for that right valuation. All right,

875
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: and I thank so much for joining us. Really appreciate

876
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 1: getting your perspective and a hunt. She's an equity strategist

877
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:27,360
Speaker 1: at Wells Fargo. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

878
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:30,879
Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts

879
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm

880
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and I'm

881
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 1: fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast.

882
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio