WEBVTT - JPMorgan, Micron, JetBlue, and Meta (Podcast) 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:05.280 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.600 Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.600 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.279 Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.520 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:24.400 JP Morgan Equity BQ. That gives me my Bloomberg quote, 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:26.720 which is my go to quote for any security I 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:29.200 pop in there. It's up like one tenth to one 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:31.800 percent today, it's up four percent year to date. Aren't 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:34.480 they having an investor day today? Shanli bassk you cover 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:37.080 all the Wall Street stuff I was expecting. Maybe not 0:00:37.200 --> 0:00:39.640 a bombshell, but can I have a little bit of 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:41.040 excitement coming out an investor day? 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:42.160 But so far not so much. 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:46.839 I mean JP Morgan makes money, big deal. No, I'm kidding, Hi, Well, 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:47.239 that's the thing. 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:47.559 I mean. 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:49.879 JP Morgan the typically when they do investor Day, you've 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:51.920 got a lot of detail about how they're managing the 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:55.720 business line by line, business by business, executive by executive. 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:58.600 But you know, they they have not been known to 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:00.960 sit there and throw out massive, big targets on a 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:05.120 fester day. They have reiterated the targets that've set, but 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:08.480 they have a one target I think in particular is important. 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:12.040 It's the twenty twenty three that interest income expectation. They're 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:14.640 expected to make more, and it's because of that First 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:17.240 Republic deal. You would expect some of that, but it's, 0:01:17.240 --> 0:01:20.520 to your point here, somewhat muted because there is still 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:23.000 a lot of uncertainty and JP Morgan's executives tell you 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:23.600 all about it. 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:27.160 So there haven't been any bombshells yet, have there from 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:30.200 this acquisition of this bank. I mean they kind of 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:31.959 sometimes you go when there and you're like, uh, oh, 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:33.679 you know, but they didn't have any of that so 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:34.320 far at least. 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:36.600 I think what it will be is a matter of 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:38.560 showing just how much this will move the deal for 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:41.720 JP Morgan overtime. You think back to bear Stearns, for example, 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:44.840 and it wasn't immediately clear, especially when on the horizon 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:47.520 there were so many hiccups to work through just how 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:51.120 much of a huge strategic change bear Stearns would be 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:53.640 have made them one of a the top fixed income 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:56.240 trading house on Wall Street. It now is making them 0:01:56.320 --> 0:02:01.160 such a competitive institutional broke if you will, you know, 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:03.280 just at the heart of capital markets, competing with the 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:07.720 investment bank. But First Republic will really make it a contender, 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.560 bigger and bigger in wealth, wealth and consumer. 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:12.480 Here, I'm just looking at a red headline going across 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:14.919 the Bloomberg terminal. Biden, We'll meet with McCarthy at five 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:18.520 thirty pm today Wall Street time to discuss the debt limits, 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:21.000 so we'll have more reporting on that. But that seems 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:22.760 like a move in the right direction. Pretty gup that 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:25.600 joints us here Bloomberg Interactior broker students just coming off 0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:29.520 the TV screen. So Creta's just talking to Shanali here. 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:32.239 Not a whole lot of action coming out of the 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:34.560 JP Morgan. I wanted to ask you about a smaller 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:39.600 deal green Hill, Mizuho Bying green Hill. Now green Hill 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:41.040 is only it's a small company, it's less than a 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:43.800 billion dollar market cap, but it's Bob Greenhill, who was 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:44.760 a just a. 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:45.800 Legendary deal maker. 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.160 They were one of the first boutique investment banks to 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:49.760 come public like twenty years. 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:50.160 Ago or something. 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:51.720 There's a reason, and I've got to say I thought 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:53.200 the story would do well. It is the most read 0:02:53.240 --> 0:02:55.600 on the terminal already and within a couple of hours here, 0:02:55.840 --> 0:02:58.800 and the reason is, Yes, Bob Greenhill, he was a 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:01.120 bank over the Sumner red Stone. He was a banker 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:04.560 to Sandy while he was really in that era of 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:10.680 legendary investment bankers Morgan Stanley former Morgans only left out 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:13.000 on his own form green Hill and Company. And yeah, 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:14.799 it was one of the original boutiques and one of 0:03:14.800 --> 0:03:17.359 the first to go public, really the first in this generation, 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:21.880 and it inspired others like Evercore, PJT. Hulahan, Loki Mulison 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.160 Company to go public too. So it's really an end 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:26.120 of an era for a public run for green Hill 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:29.079 in Company, but really a tough decade. Paul, Yeah, I mean. 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:30.520 I'm just looking at the stock price chart. 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:33.200 I mean it's you know, they're getting paid double where 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:34.880 they closed on Friday, but still it's a fraction of 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:35.760 where was it its peak. 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:37.960 I mean, in the heat in the aftermath of the 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.440 financial crisis, this was a stock at more than eighty 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:43.800 one dollars a share on Friday. It closed at less 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:46.520 than seven dollars a share, So that just shows you 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:49.320 how far they had come. And remember, investment bankers are 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:51.640 partly paid in equity of their own investment banks, so 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:53.880 it's a tough retention tool when you're facing that much 0:03:53.880 --> 0:03:55.320 pressure on your stock price. 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.040 So one of the key takeaways I'm going to bring 0:03:58.080 --> 0:03:59.839 back to JP Morgan here because five hundred and fifty 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:01.960 million dollars from a Zoho. But it feels like JP 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:05.960 Morgan all eyes on Jamie Diamond, especially with geopolitics kind 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:08.960 of rearing its ugly head once again. What is the 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:10.800 JP Morgan take on China? 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:13.240 You know, it's funny you keep on asking that to 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:16.200 take unt I know, I'm you're so convinced that the 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:18.839 investment banks are stepping away at full scale. 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:22.760 Well, so the reason I ask is because it feels 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:25.120 like we're headed towards a and correct me if I'm wrong. 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:28.400 It does feel like we're headed towards an era or 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:30.240 a couple of decades where you do start to see 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:32.200 this kind of de globalization, right, it's been in the 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:34.599 works for the past couple of years as well. 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:35.919 I can't remember. 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:37.520 I think you might be the one of who showed 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:39.160 me this, or maybe someone else said. But when you 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:40.640 look at the league tables, a lot of the deal 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:44.840 volumes fallen in Asia specifically. I'm not sure whether that's 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:47.280 a function of kind of recession or these late COVID 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:49.360 measures or things. 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:50.880 Let me give you the let me give you the 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:52.760 bold case, because you have seen a lot of hedge 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:54.960 funds come back into China. You have seen a lot 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:57.880 of big investment managers hold tight into China even amid 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:00.760 all these uncertainties. When you're a banklet Morgan listen to 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.840 your America's biggest bank. America is your biggest market. A 0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:06.080 city group, however, is a little more diversified. They have 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:10.320 a lot more global businesses. The reopening of China has 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:14.040 been so far a pretty big boon to activity, and 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:18.160 not just in China, in Europe pretty where the investment 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:19.840 banks are also trying to double down. I think the 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:22.920 bigger question here is one how global supply chains start 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:26.120 to untangle, and then also geopolitical risks, because the big 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:29.680 whale in the room is China's relationship to Taiwan. And 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:31.799 again we've been talking about this a lot. The US 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:34.440 bank CEOs have been grilled on Capitol Hill asking what 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:37.279 they would do in that event, and it's a complicated question. 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:41.160 Because they answer really is nothing. That is the real answer, 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:45.120 and it's because they follow what the US regulators would 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.760 make them do, which at this point in time is nothing. 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:49.960 Well, how does that work exactly? When you kind of 0:05:50.040 --> 0:05:53.320 let's say they have these deals or even assets sitting 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:55.440 in China in that kind of scenario, just play this 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.440 out for me, worst case scenario. I mean, what happens 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:01.520 to those assets? I mean when I'm kind of comparing 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:03.400 this to and correct me if I'm wrong, if this 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:06.480 is an extreme example, but kind of the bank presence 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:08.960 in Russia, for example, would we see something similar. 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:11.960 I think that's a long shot. I think that it 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:14.000 would be a long shot to equate the two. It 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:16.160 would take a lot. But it is on the surface, 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:19.280 it is under the minds, on the minds of many executives. 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.800 But the idea of it getting to that point is 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:28.040 still not the immediate concern because it's not happening. And 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:31.200 China is such a whale in the room, the activity 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.800 of China as a global force in the economy, the 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.560 demographics being more on their side than in the United States. 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:40.600 I'll give you another example of this. Let's not take 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:43.039 JP Morgan. Let's take credit Sweez Credit Squeze. When they 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:45.240 tried to build another investment bank, they tried to do 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.120 it with a firm that focused only in China and 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.279 Saudi Arabia based in New York City. I don't know, Critty, 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:52.760 that doesn't show me a story that is trying to 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:54.839 untangle from the rest of the world. 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:58.080 Chani Bask thanks so much for joining as Shannalani Basic. 0:06:58.120 --> 0:07:00.600 She covers all things Wall Street Today, giving us the 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:03.400 latest reporting JP Morgan again. They're having an investor day 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:07.560 ongoing today in New York City, as I recall, so 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:11.240 getting all their investors and analysts together talking about the future. 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:13.440 Maybe go take a tour of their new headquarters, which 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:16.120 is being built on Park Avenue. It is awesome. I 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:17.600 can't wait to see what it looks like when it 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.600 opens up, but I'm sure it'll be state of the art. 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:24.720 You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:27.040 Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern. 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:30.160 On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:31.080 Business App. 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:33.680 Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:37.920 Do we want to talk energy, We want to talk 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:40.240 ETFs and so we want to do that. We talked 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.360 to Will Ryan. He's the chief executive officer of Granite 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:44.680 Shairs Advisors. He joins us live here in our Bloomberg 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.440 Interactive Burger studio. So Will on the commodities front here, 0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:52.120 I want to start with gold. Our commodities analyst here, 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:57.880 Mike McLoone of Bloomberg Intelligence. He says, basically, buy gold 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:00.840 and short everything else, including the oil. Talk to us 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:02.080 about gold. What's your call there? 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:03.160 What are you guys thinking about that? 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:04.360 Well? 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:08.360 Gold right now? I mean the biggest concern for I 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:10.880 think point most people in the market, but certainly for 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.040 those who are interested in gold is the debt ceiling. 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:16.720 Because you may remember that back in twenty eleven when 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:22.320 the US ultimately defaulted and sorry, as you say, the 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:26.080 credit rating was downgraded for the first time. That propelled 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:28.800 gold to at the time high and so clearly if 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:30.720 there was any breakdown and talks and a deal doesn't 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:35.319 get done, fears that that could happen again certainly elevates 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:37.720 that premium for people looking for a hedge in gold. 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:42.680 How does that work exactly? When you invest through the 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:45.120 ETF space, it feels like there's that one ETF that 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:48.000 everyone uses for gold, But then if you're doing any 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:51.840 other sort of commodities, ETFs aren't really the vehicle to use. 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.880 Right, I guess it sort of depends, because you know, 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:57.720 the beauty of gold and the beauty of precious metals 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.560 is that their natural state after they've been mined is 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.400 you can store it in a vault. So the bars 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:07.199 that you can put in a vault, they won't decay, 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:09.920 nothing will happen to them unless they're you know, clearly 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:13.680 something nefarious, and so they're ideal to hold in a 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.840 fund that's a natural investment state. When you go outside 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:18.840 of precious metal, as you're dealing with commodities that can 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:21.760 decay or even die, you know, that's a different proposition. 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:23.880 And typically the way that we address that is via 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:26.959 the futures market. And so you're talking about broad commodity 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:29.400 TF or even an ETF on oil, et cetera. 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:32.079 That's typically done like you isn't Wasn't there kind of 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:34.720 a famous story about copper ETF's not working for that 0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:37.840 exact reason that they fall apart or something that the 0:09:37.880 --> 0:09:39.360 storage becomes an issue. 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:43.760 That's right, So you know they're a physical any physical 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:48.000 backed physically backed commodity is clearly going to be challenged 0:09:48.320 --> 0:09:51.160 to the extent that there's a challenge on securing supply. 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:54.080 So if you can imagine something like copper, the price 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:57.720 of a pound of copper is clearly materially different from 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:01.119 you know, gold, so you need a lot more storage 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:04.240 for the same weight of metal as you do in gold. 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:07.120 And so it's not to say that you can't do that. 0:10:07.679 --> 0:10:10.760 You can, it's just that it's going to be logistically 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:13.599 a lot more challenging than providing storage for gold. 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:17.160 Touch on a platinum, that's what we hear. I hear 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.120 more and more about and you've guys have got the 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:22.280 granite shares platinum trust. Why would I want to have 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:23.559 exposure to platinum here. 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:27.120 Well, platinum's a really interesting one because the fundamentals for 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:32.560 this year we're expecting a big deficit, so in other words, 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:35.480 more demand than we have supply for this year, so 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:39.360 automatically for any commodity, that puts you on a firm footing. 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.560 What's interesting is the majority of platinum comes from South 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:45.400 Africa and at the moment they're having very very big 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:49.440 issues with energy supply to the sector, so you're seeing 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:55.000 that manifesting in blackouts across the country, but particularly obviously 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.440 is it pertains to the production itself. So once you 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:00.720 have energy blackouts, that that affects mind supply and so 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:05.200 the outlook for supply gets even bleaker. But the demand 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.160 story for platinum is really there's two fold good stories. 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:12.880 One is main uses in catalytic converters, so particularly for 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:16.800 diesel engine cars, so cleans the emissions, and vehicle sales 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:20.280 despite all the negative news we have, vehicle sales across 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.160 the globe are expected to increase this year. The second 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.240 thing is that you need platinum or as a vital 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:29.680 ingredient for the production of hydrogen. And so hydrogen is 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:35.200 another story which people are focused on as an alternative 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:40.960 or a complement to electricity produced by batteries, and so 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:44.520 hydrogen is an alternative fuel source is something that a 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:48.959 lot of governments and indeed make makers of autos to 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.679 aeroplanes and start to focus on. Now, so we need 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:52.480 platinum for that. 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:56.520 When you're talking about platinum, what do you from an 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.440 investment point of view, though, what's the narrative behind that? 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:01.679 For gold? It's easy, it's the debt ceiling, it's inflation. 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:05.240 It's all about jazz, copper, it's China oil, China US whatever. 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:08.120 What's the investment narrative behind platinum. 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.600 Well, platinum's much more of a fundamentally driven commodity. So, 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:15.120 in other words, do you expect the demand for platinum 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.800 to go up over time? And in an ideal scenario, 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:21.800 is the demand going to outstrip supply? And therefore, like 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:25.760 any commodity, it's sort of economics one oh one that 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:29.160 that will dictate where pricing goes. So for platinum, you know, 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:31.760 we look at this market. We have more demand than supplies. 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:36.880 That's good. Outlook for autos is positive, so more sales 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:38.719 for orders. And we think that the hydrogen story is 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:40.199 a really good one. You know, we're going to have 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:44.199 hydrogen as an alternative green fuel source and we need 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:48.360 platinum for that. But you know that's really the it's 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.040 a metal. It's thirty times rareer than gold's much smaller market. 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:51.680 I didn't know that. 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.839 Okay, all right, let's go more boring stuff, mundane stuff, 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:55.960 WTI crude oils. 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:57.000 It's under seventy two. 0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:00.600 Bucks a barrel. It just feels like it should be higher. 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:01.559 Why isn't it? 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:06.360 The main reason is, again the debt ceiling scenario at 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:07.000 the moment, But. 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:07.960 That's going to get fixed. 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:10.880 You're go down to the trading pits of oil and 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:12.360 tell these guys it's going to get fixed. 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:14.080 The contrary, and. 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:20.120 Exactly no, it is. I mean, the the any any 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.800 kind of downward move we've had in oil typically, and 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.120 I don't want to over generalize, but over the last 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:30.280 twelve months has been about recession narratives. So whether we're 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:35.480 talking about the debt ceiling immediately leading to recession or 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.880 whether we're just talking about a more global slowdown. But 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:40.480 but that's the story. I mean, the data coming out 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:42.800 of China's actually been really good. March was a huge 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:47.120 month in terms of oil demand consumption. And we know 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:49.760 from you know, the Middle East that you know, Saudi 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:53.720 Arabia and the OPEC Consortium are definitely not opposed to 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:56.920 cutting production if they feel like pricing is at a 0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:57.679 lower left level. 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.240 Can we go back to the gold story. I'm just 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.960 I'm looking you up on your LinkedIn profile. Used to 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:07.559 work at the World Gold Council, which that's pretty cool. 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:09.840 There is a thing, there is a thing. Come on, 0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:11.360 you just count gold. 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:13.959 What do you do with the World Gold Council tell 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:18.360 our audience, Well, the World Gold Council is the official 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.600 industry body, if you will, for the gold industry. 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:24.600 So it's supported by the gold mining companies with a 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.520 mission to raise awareness for gold. So think of it 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:32.040 as like a trade association at some respects. But the 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:34.240 most well known thing that the World Gold Council probably 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:37.760 does is it owns the gld ETF, which is the 0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:39.760 largest gold ETF. So I was the CEO of that 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.360 for for two and a half years. For starting my 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.640 own one bar with granite shares. That's the ticket, sorry bar, 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:47.600 But yes. 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.080 Okay, all right, So Critty, here's the thing about Will Ryan. 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:51.960 Every time he comes in, I'm like, I go look 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:53.360 through my notes and I see he goes to he 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:55.200 went to the University of Bath in England. 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:58.120 So I google that and what you should only say 0:14:58.120 --> 0:14:59.360 in an accent apparent. 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:00.080 Exactly you can say. 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:03.160 But you google it and it looks like the most 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:06.880 beautiful town anywhere. And then I keep asking myself how 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:08.960 come I've never been there? And I go to my 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:11.720 little map thing, immajig. It's only an hour and seventeen 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:16.440 minute train ride from Paddington station in London. Why haven't 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:18.240 I been. I've been to London like a thousand times. 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:20.240 It's a good question. So all right, I think it 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:21.800 just made an itinerary for your next trip. 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:23.000 I can do a day trip there, right, or I 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:23.840 could do an overnight trip. 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:25.280 Oh yeah, easily, easily. 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.120 All right, put that on the itinerary. 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:29.920 Put that on the itinerary. Let's go back to market 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:31.960 pricing here. I think we've got a few more minutes left. 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:34.640 Pull me back to gold, though, we were just near 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:37.280 record Do we break the record high? I can't remember, 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.960 but we were near record highs for gold and then 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:42.520 kind of retreated back. I think we're in nineteen seventy 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.520 the last time I checked nineteen seventy two on spot gold. 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:47.800 What would it take to break that record high? 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:52.680 Most immediately, some kind of breakdown in the debt ceilings. 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:55.960 That's the clear and present danger for the market. But 0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:59.640 you know, gold prices will thrive off any kind of 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:03.200 dislike cation event, and you know, the fear of this 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:06.200 happening has been one of the main reasons why gold 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:09.040 has climbed back up to these levels. But clearly, if 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:13.000 we have any breakdown, obviously, worst case scenario, we had 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:16.240 some kind of default event, prices of gold would be 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:17.160 materially higher. 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.640 And silver doesn't the silver foul gold. What's the relationship 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:21.280 gold to silver? 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:22.160 It does? 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:23.480 You know silver? 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:27.160 Silver is more industrial because the majority of demand for 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:29.320 silver is more industrial. So it's a bit like platinum 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:33.160 where it's going to be more related to the business cycle. However, 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:37.320 you know, silver is the closest correlated to gold, and 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:40.200 so when gold prices are going up, typically silver prices 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:41.360 are also going up. 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:43.640 But you can't corner that. Like who cornered the silver 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:46.320 market back in the day. That wasn't the Hunt brothers. 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:48.200 How do you corner a silver market? 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.200 I mean, is it? Is it the size that it 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:50.840 can be done? 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:55.480 I mean, most most commodities are at the size that 0:16:55.480 --> 0:16:57.600 they can be done. I mean clearly you know opek, 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:01.400 remember is a cartel, and if it's self, it's designed 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:04.320 to corner the market in the in the same sense 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:07.680 as the Hunts did. But you know that's I guess 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.119 short order, why we have regulation in these markets to 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:11.840 try and stop these days happening. 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.760 Interesting, Okay, we'll Rind joining us here in our Bloomberg 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.359 Interactive Broker studio Will Rand. He's a chief executive officer 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:19.000 of Granted Shairs Advisors. 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.399 You're listening to the tape Cat's are live program Bloomberg 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:26.040 Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:29.359 tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.199 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:37.879 flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:43.720 He woke this morning to the news at China declaring 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.119 Micron Technologies a cyber security risk. I guess that's a 0:17:47.720 --> 0:17:50.280 no no. So they're China's barring Micron chips. What does 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:52.240 it mean? A stockment is down about four percent of 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.040 John just mentioned here. Let's bring in an expert here 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:58.080 to kind of frame this out. Paula Pincal, she covers 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:00.919 semiconductors with Bloomberg Intelligence. She joins us live here in 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:04.000 our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. So we appreciate you coming in. 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.360 You get a gold star for that, unlike your management, 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:08.960 which mails it in, phones it in. I appreciate you 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:13.080 coming in, Paula. How big a deal is this for Micron? Again, 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:15.720 the stock is off a little bit, but frame it 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:16.120 out for. 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:19.920 Us happy to be here, Paul, Thank you. Look, it 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:27.000 was a low ball punch against the United States. And 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:34.320 I say that because MICRONU China can easily replace the 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:39.320 product with its by its competitors in Southeast Asia, Samsung, 0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:43.960 sk Heinex, So it's not really hurting itself by banning 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:48.520 these products. Micron stock is down, yes, but I think 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:51.800 they're starting it's starting to pair some of those losses. 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:54.840 I think as people look at it more closely, China 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:59.920 roughly represents maybe eleven percent of direct sales of Micron's 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:04.960 direct sales, but of that the majority goes into consumer 0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:10.560