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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays
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Speaker 3: Jay Haffle joints us.
Speaker 4: He's the CEO, founder and portfolio manager Infrastructure Capital Advisors. Jay,
Speaker 4: what did you make or what are you making? How
Speaker 4: are you thinking about your outlook? You've got a Republican
Speaker 4: in the White House, Republican Senate, and likely Republican House.
Speaker 3: How does that inform your outlook for markets?
Speaker 5: Thanks, Paul, it's great to be on.
Speaker 6: Well.
Speaker 5: We're much more focused on the corporate talx rate than
Speaker 5: almost anyone else they're politicians or investors, and the reason
Speaker 5: for that is that it's really the key driver of growth,
Speaker 5: not for just the companies, but also for the country
Speaker 5: as a whole. And you can do the math very
Speaker 5: simply by applying the a pro form a corporate tax
Speaker 5: rate to earnings and then giving some credit for higher
Speaker 5: growth because growth is driven by reinvested earnings, so if
Speaker 5: there's more earnings, you grow faster. So we are coming
Speaker 5: up with our seventy five hundred target. It's twenty three
Speaker 5: times consensus earnings, so you can get on the terminal.
Speaker 5: That's where we get it, and then adjusted for the
Speaker 5: new tax rate. And so it sounds perhaps a bit
Speaker 5: nutty at seventy five hundred, but a lot of people
Speaker 5: thought our six thousand target for the SMP was netty
Speaker 5: this year, which doesn't look very nutty right now. Maybe
Speaker 5: too conservative, but not nutty. And so we actually have
Speaker 5: superior target technology. And or you have been quite accurate,
Speaker 5: at least during the pandemic.
Speaker 7: So Jay, you're talking that you're basically calling the market
Speaker 7: out here. You're saying their fear of rising inflation is
Speaker 7: somewhat irrational. And I just want to kind of for
Speaker 7: our audience put some numbers out there. One year one
Speaker 7: year inflation swaps. That's what you know, the market is
Speaker 7: projecting average inflation to be in one year's time. It's
Speaker 7: up twenty two basis points at two point seven percent.
Speaker 7: You've got you know, the US and one year inflation
Speaker 7: swap alone at two point five percent five four percent. Last,
Speaker 7: I mean, talk to us a little bit about your
Speaker 7: expectations for inflation under a Trump regime.
Speaker 5: Well, we think investors look at way too many data
Speaker 5: points to predict inflation. If you look at ten data
Speaker 5: points to predict inflation and only to matter, then you're
Speaker 5: going to be wrong eighty percent of the time. So
Speaker 5: we look at just two things. And if you use
Speaker 5: this since World War Two, you had been the perfect
Speaker 5: inflation forecaster. Money supply and oil prices, both of which
Speaker 5: are negative for the last year. And it's also important
Speaker 5: not to confuse so disinflationary. We're we're at risk of
Speaker 5: a disinflation right now in our model. In fact, if
Speaker 5: you adjust the current CPI for shelter which is miscalculated,
Speaker 5: a brand auto insurance and repair which is pandemic distorted,
Speaker 5: we would have zero inflation. So we are much more
Speaker 5: bullish about inflation in the market. We think that'll be
Speaker 5: reflected slowly, not at this CPI. We're projecting an inline
Speaker 5: CPI at point three, but as we as it unfolds,
Speaker 5: we think it'll undershoot. We also think that the bond markets,
Speaker 5: ahead of us itself, we're going to have rebalancing, So
Speaker 5: we're projecting and in fact and plicit, our target is
Speaker 5: more like a three fifty to four percent treasury. So
Speaker 5: if we're wrong about treasuries, then our target will be wrong.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think I think the real I mean, for me,
Speaker 7: the real risk to that is obviously if something blows
Speaker 7: up in the Middle East, right, because if you're if
Speaker 7: you're right, it's money supply and its energy prices, oil
Speaker 7: prices specifically, you know, I think, you know, that's the
Speaker 7: one kind of thing that might derail your seventy five hundred.
Speaker 5: You know, target on the S and P. Absolutely, Damien.
Speaker 5: And that's a great point because I think everybody's obsessing
Speaker 5: about the you know, deporting criminals as being inflationary, which
Speaker 5: I've looked at my Warden textbooks and I've never found
Speaker 5: that criminals were anti deflationary, but or the import taxes.
Speaker 5: But I I'll give you a case that the Trump
Speaker 5: policy is inflationary, and that is it's not discussed so far.
Speaker 5: But I don't know if you noticed that in Wall
Speaker 5: Street JOURNALI has said that Trump had been targeted for
Speaker 5: assassination by Iranians. Well, there's a reason for that. He's
Speaker 5: going to reimpose oil extra inflation restrictions, which is inflationary.
Speaker 5: So that's the inflationary case. I would look at that,
Speaker 5: But keep in mind that oil is extremely weak right now.
Speaker 5: It's partly seasonal, so it's not clear that that wouldn't
Speaker 5: really be effective and dry prices up. But I would
Speaker 5: watch that, and that is a real concern.
Speaker 4: A twenty three multiple, that's not what I learned in
Speaker 4: business school. I don't know where you went to business school,
Speaker 4: but my business twenty three times earnings.
Speaker 5: Well, there's two factors. One I already mentioned, which if
Speaker 5: we're wrong about the bond market, we're wrong about the multiple.
Speaker 5: But the other thing that is not in those numbers.
Speaker 5: So I would say the risk, just like our six
Speaker 5: thousand target is to the upside, is there's a ton
Speaker 5: of dynamic effects that are not reflected there. So if
Speaker 5: the US goes to a fifteen percent stated corporate tax rate,
Speaker 5: we're going to be a tax haven. Think of all
Speaker 5: the capital. It's going to be like Ireland as grows
Speaker 5: at six percent, Like we're gonna have you know, phony
Speaker 5: shell companies with employees here. So there's a lot of
Speaker 5: dynamic deregulations not in our number. There's a lot of
Speaker 5: positive when you have a pro business administration and Congress,
Speaker 5: there's a lot of dynamic factors that can't get captured,
Speaker 5: so we think that even twenty three, and also AI.
Speaker 5: During AI booms, you typically have overshoot on valuation, so
Speaker 5: we don't think twenty three is crazy by any means.
Speaker 7: Well, Paul, remember Ja may have gone the Wharton, but
Speaker 7: he was really educated at the school of Steve alan
Speaker 7: Cone at SAC Capital back in the day. And Steve
Speaker 7: likes to pay seven hundred billion dollars for baseball players
Speaker 7: who formerly played for the New York yankis er may
Speaker 7: still again be playing.
Speaker 3: For the New York Gakigs.
Speaker 7: I mean, Jay talked to us a little bit about
Speaker 7: you know, some of some of the things you're seeing here.
Speaker 7: The dollar is rallying, I mean, copper prices are down,
Speaker 7: iron ore is down. You know. Any read through from that.
Speaker 5: Well, there continues to be concerned about China growth, you know,
Speaker 5: their key consumer of commodities. We're actually more bullish than
Speaker 5: most about China. They do save forty five percent of
Speaker 5: their GDP, which the IMF estimates every ten percent is
Speaker 5: one point five percent of growth. They don't get that
Speaker 5: because they've wasted on communist projects. But over time they
Speaker 5: will have pretty strong growth. So we're actually bullish on commodities.
Speaker 5: We do think oil prices will come off these lows,
Speaker 5: but I think that a lot of the weakness you're
Speaker 5: seeing there is, as you've indicated, the dollar, but also
Speaker 5: some concerns about China.
Speaker 3: Small caps can we play those years.
Speaker 5: We like small caps. We have a small camp funds cap.
Speaker 5: What a lot of people miss about that is you're
Speaker 5: really mostly they are cheap, but you're getting a consolidation play.
Speaker 5: But also you're getting non tech exposure. So small caps
Speaker 5: are only ten percent tech, so you're getting a lot
Speaker 5: of financials. We love financials, particularly investment banks. We in
Speaker 5: fact we're carrying earnings estimates thirty percent above consensus for
Speaker 5: Goldman Sachs. But there's a lot of small investment banks
Speaker 5: in the small cap index, so it's a way to
Speaker 5: bet on kind of the non tech sectors in the market.
Speaker 3: All right, very good, great stuff. As always. Jay Hafeld,
Speaker 3: he's to see you.
Speaker 4: He's the founder Portfolio Management Infrastructure Capital Advisors.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 3: Heidi Preboat Rudger joins US.
Speaker 4: She's the adjunct Senior Fellow on the Council for Foreign Relations.
Speaker 3: She joins us HEID.
Speaker 4: When you woke up Wednesday morning, I've been asking this
Speaker 4: question for a lot of market investors, how did maybe
Speaker 4: the election change their investment outlook? Maybe I'll ask it
Speaker 4: to you in this context, how did it change perhaps
Speaker 4: the way you feel the US will conduct foreign policy
Speaker 4: over the next four years.
Speaker 8: So I think we're in for some some pretty significant
Speaker 8: changes in many areas of the of the world. We
Speaker 8: have a very complicated backdrop of conflicts both in the
Speaker 8: Middle East, in obviously in Europe with Russia Ukraine, and
Speaker 8: then this ongoing competition with China and potential for real,
Speaker 8: real disruption in the South China Sea, and the question
Speaker 8: of Taiwan comes up, obviously, So I think you know,
Speaker 8: there are you know, we just heard that Marco Rubio
Speaker 8: is the likely nominee for Secretary of State. He is
Speaker 8: not an isolationist, and he is one of the leading
Speaker 8: China Hawks. So I think for directionally that is that's
Speaker 8: going to be very important. He's he certainly knows the
Speaker 8: State Department, and he has very strong wrong views, very
Speaker 8: pro Israel, so that I think we're starting to see
Speaker 8: what that direction of a Trump administration foreign policy is
Speaker 8: going to look like.
Speaker 7: Well, Heid, you took the words right out of my
Speaker 7: mouth there. I mean, that's exactly what I want to
Speaker 7: ask you. We know everybody's at China Hawk here. But
Speaker 7: my question is what does Mark Rubia, Mike Waltz and
Speaker 7: at least DEFINEX stand on other other places like Israel
Speaker 7: for example, and Ukraine.
Speaker 1: So I think you have very strong supporters of Israel.
Speaker 8: I think you know that is that's without question with
Speaker 8: both with the least Stephonic, with with Marco Rubio and
Speaker 8: with with Waltz. But you also have you have concerns,
Speaker 8: very very significant concerns about where the direction of the
Speaker 8: Ukraine Russia conflict is going and how how this administration,
Speaker 8: incoming Trump administration is going to is going.
Speaker 1: To deal with with you.
Speaker 8: Know, first and foremost, you know, incoming president and Trump
Speaker 8: has said he was going to end the conflict before
Speaker 8: he actually gets into office. I'm not sure how that happens.
Speaker 8: It's it's a very complicated world out there. You now
Speaker 8: have China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea all working together
Speaker 8: in various ways to to to keep and to triumph
Speaker 8: in a number of those conflict areas that we just
Speaker 8: talked about. So it's far more complicated than it was
Speaker 8: when Trump was in office.
Speaker 7: Before Heidi, you mentioned the Hermit State, and so we
Speaker 7: need to go there. I mean, North Korea has fallen
Speaker 7: under the radar amidst what's going on, you know, more
Speaker 7: broadly speaking, in the Middle East, in Eastern Europe, and
Speaker 7: you know now we have North Korean troops on the
Speaker 7: ground in Ukraine. I mean, talk to us a little
Speaker 7: bit about what that means. Has that is that a
Speaker 7: form of escalation? Does the US?
Speaker 5: Does? You know?
Speaker 7: President left Trump needs to respond to that.
Speaker 1: So it is very concerning.
Speaker 8: I don't think that it's flown under the radar at
Speaker 8: all with the national security community, and there there's very
Speaker 8: you there's limited visibility into what deals were done between
Speaker 8: Russia and North Korea to actually get them to send
Speaker 8: their their troops to UH into into this conflict. And
Speaker 8: as as you know, there's you know, there are tens
Speaker 8: of thousands of both Russian and with the addition of
Speaker 8: North Korean troops actually on the on the front with
Speaker 8: with combat ready, and Ukraine is one one area where
Speaker 8: I think you probably will see a significant change with
Speaker 8: Trump and his new national security team because they will
Speaker 8: focus mostly on on Asia and on China and uh.
Speaker 8: You know, we've all heard about the calls that the
Speaker 8: very that that Trump himself and uh and his close
Speaker 8: team has had with President Putin, So I think you
Speaker 8: know there there there are a lot of big Russian
Speaker 8: marks out there, but the world is far more complicated.
Speaker 1: North Korea is a really is a big.
Speaker 8: Risk that that I think, particularly particularly given its proximity
Speaker 8: to to to other two Asian allies, that we really
Speaker 8: need to start watching very closely.
Speaker 3: Heidi.
Speaker 4: The Middle East another very difficult and fluid situation there.
Speaker 4: You mentioned that President Trump and UH Marco Rubio pro Israel.
Speaker 4: How do you envision that playing out US policy there,
Speaker 4: because it doesn't seem like Israel has been listening to
Speaker 4: the US over the past two.
Speaker 8: Years, So you know, it's it's Minettnya who is is
Speaker 8: is obviously complicated and and has and has a huge
Speaker 8: momentum behind him in actually bringing bringing about a complete
Speaker 8: colgering of of around proxies in the region, including Hamas,
Speaker 8: Hizbola and and and I think you know, and the
Speaker 8: hutis in Yemen, and so this is this becomes you know,
Speaker 8: you have strong alignment with the incoming team to the
Speaker 8: Trump administration vis a vis Iran and limiting, curtailing and
Speaker 8: completely you know, cutting the legs out of Iran's ability
Speaker 8: to actually to be an active, strong, active.
Speaker 1: Catalyst and a negative catalyst in the region.
Speaker 7: Heidi, thirty seconds or last, really quick, what's your thoughts
Speaker 7: on what's going on in Germany here at the end
Speaker 7: of all up Schultz, Friedrich Mertz, I mean, what role
Speaker 7: do you think the US and President Trump is going
Speaker 7: to play in that election?
Speaker 8: So, I mean, obviously what's happening in Germany is it's
Speaker 8: it's simultaneous with a massive change in power in the US.
Speaker 1: And I do think that how.
Speaker 8: Europe views its ability to ramp up its defense and
Speaker 8: security when you have Trump coming in and really a
Speaker 8: not a fan of Europe, be not a fan of
Speaker 8: Germany and not necessarily willing to contribue to continue to
Speaker 8: fund the operations in Ukraine. So Europe needs money, Germany
Speaker 8: needs money. The person their business model is broken, amongst
Speaker 8: other things. But I do think this early election, the
Speaker 8: fact that you were likely to see Mertz and some
Speaker 8: kind of a coalition with the Greens come about, is
Speaker 8: very much worth paying attention to.
Speaker 3: Heidi.
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for your time. We always appreciate
Speaker 4: getting some of your thoughts.
Speaker 3: Heidi creaeboat Rehticker.
Speaker 4: She's an adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relationship.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
Speaker 2: say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: Shri Kumar Joints. He's president of Shrie Kumar Global Strategy
Speaker 4: and Damian. You'll appreciate this, Santa. He's been all over
Speaker 4: the place. But how about this Drexel Burnham Lumpy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that is just good.
Speaker 5: All this.
Speaker 4: We're talking serious Wall Street creator Peabody. The kids don't
Speaker 4: know those names are, but we do. Shre, thanks so
Speaker 4: much for joining us here. The world's changed in the
Speaker 4: last seven days. Here, Sri, give us your thirty thousand
Speaker 4: foot view on the fact that we're going to have
Speaker 4: a new Republican president, We're gonna have a Republican Senate
Speaker 4: and potentially even Republican House of Representative as well. How's
Speaker 4: that changed your view of these markets.
Speaker 6: Paul, good to be with you and Damian. I think
Speaker 6: the change happened. We didn't know who was going to
Speaker 6: win last Tuesday, but now we have the victory, a
Speaker 6: complete sweep by the Republicans, and it looks like the
Speaker 6: House also will go their way. It is both good
Speaker 6: and bad. The good part about it is it gives
Speaker 6: you a clearer indication as to which economic policies the
Speaker 6: president elect it would like to follow in his administration.
Speaker 6: The uncertainty is how the markets will react. While the
Speaker 6: equities have gone up sharply, there is more of a
Speaker 6: doubt on the bond side, and you can see the
Speaker 6: yields going up, and the mortgage rate is likely to
Speaker 6: increase as well because of the expectation that the fiscal
Speaker 6: deficit is not going to be controlled with the measures
Speaker 6: that Donald Trump promised before the elections. That I think
Speaker 6: is the big risk that I think is the big change, Paul,
Speaker 6: in terms of what has happened, and look at the dollar.
Speaker 6: The dollar has strengthened so much, and that is just
Speaker 6: the opposite of what Trump wanted. He has always said
Speaker 6: in his first administration he likes a cheap dollar, he
Speaker 6: wants low interest rates. And both of them I think
Speaker 6: are at risk now with a stronger dollar and potentially
Speaker 6: higher interest rates in the United States.
Speaker 7: So should we lift game this out here Beijing? Beijing,
Speaker 7: are they going to depreciate the yuan relative to the
Speaker 7: dollar if these tariffs go through. I mean that would
Speaker 7: be the playbook.
Speaker 6: Right, that would be the playbook. But they can try
Speaker 6: and do that Demien in terms of what that would
Speaker 6: achieve for them in terms of the trade side. But
Speaker 6: if indeed the Trump is going to go ahead with
Speaker 6: a sixty percent import tariff on Chinese products, any extent
Speaker 6: of depreciation of the renmin byuan is not going to
Speaker 6: offset it. The big problem is that the tariffs are
Speaker 6: going to be more important than the exchange rate as
Speaker 6: far as China is concerned. From a Trump point of view,
Speaker 6: he has to look and see what the tariff increase
Speaker 6: would do to the United States. I am a believer
Speaker 6: that tariffs are bad. They will push up inflation rate.
Speaker 6: And as a student of history, I looked at the
Speaker 6: smooth Hawley tariff of June nineteen thirty. It was done
Speaker 6: by President Herbert hoo worked with a very good intention.
Speaker 6: We wanted to protect American farmers, we wanted to protect
Speaker 6: American trade. Instead, it gave rise to retaliation by trade partners,
Speaker 6: and that, in turn mays made the depression deeper and
Speaker 6: more widespread than before. So that's the risk I think
Speaker 6: Trump runs, and he needs to be very careful with
Speaker 6: the tariff moves.
Speaker 7: Well, sir, you mentioned nineteen thirty, and I'll pull out
Speaker 7: my regime model and you know, quote ed your Denny
Speaker 7: here and talk about the Roaring twenties. A lot of
Speaker 7: people are making comparisons to this environment and that which
Speaker 7: existed in the precursor to the Great Depression. Talk to
Speaker 7: us a little bit about that. Do you see any
Speaker 7: similarities there.
Speaker 6: That is a similarity in the sense that before the
Speaker 6: nineteen twenty nine thrash came, we had the big run
Speaker 6: up during the nineteen twenties, and that was because of
Speaker 6: policies which were expansionary. The Federal Reserve had been set
Speaker 6: up in nineteen thirteen there was also an expectation that
Speaker 6: things were going very well and you had a free
Speaker 6: capitalist run taking place in the nineteen twenties. But just
Speaker 6: as you say that it's the darkest before dawn, it's
Speaker 6: also the brightest before night. And that's what you have
Speaker 6: to be concerned about. That, as you had the Roaring twenties,
Speaker 6: the nineteen thirties were nothing compared with a decade earlier,
Speaker 6: and you want to prevent a repeat of that. And
Speaker 6: that's why it behooves us to study the nineteen twenties
Speaker 6: history and to prevent that from being repeated in the
Speaker 6: twenty twenties.
Speaker 4: Shre what's kind of your leading I guess investment thought
Speaker 4: these days when you talk to your clients, because a
Speaker 4: lot has changed in the last week, what's kind of
Speaker 4: a theme you're going with with your clients these days?
Speaker 6: I say two things. One, equities are very highly valued.
Speaker 6: I don't pick securities, Paul, but I say to investors' clients,
Speaker 6: be very careful what you pick, because you want to
Speaker 6: be sure that the security characteristics are good enough for
Speaker 6: you to be very highly invested in equities. That's one second.
Speaker 6: On the fixed income side, I say to them that
Speaker 6: you have a situation when bond yields could increase and
Speaker 6: you could have a loss. And that's the case. You
Speaker 6: want to reduce the duration of your fixed income presence.
Speaker 6: Whether you are in US treasuries, high grade corporate bonds,
Speaker 6: or you are in municipal bonds, you want to reduce it.
Speaker 6: So that's the second one. And if you want to
Speaker 6: add a third, I would say the sixty to forty
Speaker 6: traditional portfolio no longer holds, and you want to have
Speaker 6: more alternatives, global, real estate, other areas to reduce the
Speaker 6: amount of risk in your total portfolio.
Speaker 7: So three US treasure curves have flattened off the back
Speaker 7: of the move inflation and growth expectations as built intoenomenal
Speaker 7: US treasure yields have risen. Talk to us a little
Speaker 7: bit about your expectations regarding US monetary policy and the Fed.
Speaker 7: I mean, what are your thoughts on December and as
Speaker 7: we look ahead into next year.
Speaker 6: I am to make my bias very clear. I said
Speaker 6: the September eighteenth, the Fed should not have cut interests
Speaker 6: at all, let alone a fifty basis cop point cut.
Speaker 6: I did not want to reduce it, and I've written
Speaker 6: about it and once that happened. I'm not at all
Speaker 6: surprised that long dated yields have risen as a result
Speaker 6: of that, and then the FED cut interest rates again
Speaker 6: last week. The expectation is that December there will be
Speaker 6: a cut unless later this week we find out the
Speaker 6: consumer price in is way out of control anything manageable.
Speaker 6: I think Powell and his colleagues are going to cut
Speaker 6: rates again in December, and that in turn would be
Speaker 6: welcomed by the President elect as something positive. The negative
Speaker 6: is going to come for FED policy, I believe in
Speaker 6: twenty twenty five. And I again I am assuming that
Speaker 6: Powell will continue to remain in office until May twenty
Speaker 6: twenty six. That will not be a danger to his position.
Speaker 6: He's going to lead the FED, and if that's the case,
Speaker 6: twenty twenty six, he has to deal with the fact
Speaker 6: that with inflationary expectations up because he has put so
Speaker 6: much of cash into consumer pockets, that he has to
Speaker 6: deal with higher long term yields, and how he is
Speaker 6: going to monitory policy cuts and rates may come to
Speaker 6: an end or even necessitate an increase in interest rates
Speaker 6: during twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: Sure, just finally we've seen a big move hire in
Speaker 4: the US dollar.
Speaker 3: How much farther do you think that has to go?
Speaker 6: The US dollar could go up a lot further depending
Speaker 6: on Trump policies. Let me give you an example. If
Speaker 6: he does go through with the campaign promise of a
Speaker 6: ten percent cariff on all countries and a sixty percent
Speaker 6: cariff on the sixty percent cadiff on China, expect the
Speaker 6: dollar to strengthen massively. For example, we are below a
Speaker 6: dollar seven cents this week, the lowest since June. I
Speaker 6: can see the dollar going below parity, meaning less than
Speaker 6: one dollar to buy one euro. If you are going
Speaker 6: to be imposing a cariiff on all the countries, that's
Speaker 6: how serious it is. And if Prump wants a week
Speaker 6: dollar as well as tariffs, he cannot have both of them.
Speaker 6: He has to choose.
Speaker 4: Very good Shre Thank you so much for joining us there.
Speaker 4: Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time.
Speaker 3: Street Kumar.
Speaker 4: He is a president Upstreet Kumar Global Strategies out there
Speaker 4: in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 4: You're daily look at the front pages around the rurld,
Speaker 4: Lisa Matteo newspapers.
Speaker 3: What do you got for us?
Speaker 9: All right, So you've talked about it, Paul, how people
Speaker 9: can easily cancel their subscriptions to streaming services. You go online,
Speaker 9: you do a little click, and it's and it's done.
Speaker 9: So now the Wall Street Journal is calling this like
Speaker 9: the new streaming habit. It's the subscription pause. So people
Speaker 9: are canceling and then coming back and maybe if you know,
Speaker 9: because they had a show that ended, so then they
Speaker 9: cancel it and then they wait for the next season
Speaker 9: to start and they come back and do it. So
Speaker 9: it's really showing how streaming services really need to deliver
Speaker 9: these hit shows, films, live events. It's showing this is
Speaker 9: why the pressure is on for them to do this
Speaker 9: so they can keep getting those customers to come back
Speaker 9: so quick. Numbers from Antenna It says the monthly medium
Speaker 9: percentage of premium streaming videoscribers who rejoined the same service
Speaker 9: they canceled within the private prior year thirty four point
Speaker 9: two percent. In the first nine months of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 9: and that was up from twenty nine point eight percent
Speaker 9: and twenty twenty two. So I don't know if you've
Speaker 9: done the whole pause okay situation I've been looking for.
Speaker 4: I'm a huge fan of Yellowstone, Okay, so I thought
Speaker 4: I could just go on paramounts Paramount create is the
Speaker 4: does the yelsam? I go to Paramount. It's not there,
Speaker 4: so I subscribe to it. Then I unsubscribe to it
Speaker 4: five minutes later, and then I understand I google it.
Speaker 4: Apparently it's on Peacock, So we're going to Peacock subscribe.
Speaker 3: They're not there yet. They come later. I don't know
Speaker 3: how that'll work.
Speaker 7: So you get hit every time you subscribe, and then
Speaker 7: unsubscribe to you get hit with like a month.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 4: I don't know if that definitelyribe so that it is
Speaker 4: a terrible business model compare to what I brought into
Speaker 4: this world thirty years ago, when we were banking all
Speaker 4: these media companies and you just paid one hundred bucks
Speaker 4: a month and you got everything you needed.
Speaker 7: That's right, that's right. Every ala carte, the ala carte
Speaker 7: approach to some streaming media is is definitely taking a
Speaker 7: bit of a hit here. But it's I think it's
Speaker 7: Netflix and everything else truthfully, I mean, let's be clear.
Speaker 7: I mean, if you were subscribed to Netflix, you're not
Speaker 7: canceling that anytime soon. But everything else, I mean Disney.
Speaker 7: I haven't seen anything new come out on Disney. Who
Speaker 7: I mean, well, who is different? I mean Peacock, You're right, Max,
Speaker 7: you know it's it's it's hit or miss.
Speaker 3: It's hit or miss. So I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 3: I know you control your household with I I do.
Speaker 9: I've canceled out a lot of I'm not the I'm
Speaker 9: not the return.
Speaker 3: I just cancel.
Speaker 9: I don't come back exactly.
Speaker 3: So then like mom, what happened?
Speaker 4: I we we're soldiers out there and you're canceling on him.
Speaker 3: You can't get up.
Speaker 4: That's not yep.
Speaker 9: Sorry, Hey he has the YouTube subscription and he doesn't
Speaker 9: give me his past. Okay, so I'm playing fair game.
Speaker 3: All right, very good?
Speaker 6: All right?
Speaker 9: Moving on losing your luggage. You know, it's a big
Speaker 9: pain in the neck. I don't know if it's ever
Speaker 9: happened to you, But USA Today says this new Apple feature,
Speaker 9: we'll let you tell the airline exactly where it is.
Speaker 9: So it's in the latest iOS update. They're expanding the
Speaker 9: functions of the find my feature. I don't know if
Speaker 9: you use I use it to track my kids.
Speaker 3: I checked my kids on it.
Speaker 9: But they're saying that it's expanding it so now you
Speaker 9: can share locations with other people, but also third party vendors.
Speaker 9: So for example, if you're traveling and you lose your luggage,
Speaker 9: you can share that location if you have an air
Speaker 9: tag on it with the airword.
Speaker 10: Get an air an air tag. Yes, I have my share.
Speaker 10: Put air tags in every piece of luggage every time
Speaker 10: we travel. I actually look when I'm in the plane
Speaker 10: to make sure that the bags which are still the.
Speaker 3: Terminal on the plane.
Speaker 7: I mean you have to, how do you not. I
Speaker 7: mean this has happened to me many times, by the way,
Speaker 7: where I've lost my luggage, So I mean I'm scarred
Speaker 7: for it.
Speaker 3: I checked the bag of luggage in thirty years.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I'll throw it on.
Speaker 5: I'll throw it.
Speaker 7: My daughter's shoe is just on the way to school,
Speaker 7: to see where she's going. I mean I do what
Speaker 7: I use those air top it.
Speaker 9: In your wife's bag.
Speaker 1: Okay, you said that.
Speaker 3: And it does.
Speaker 9: It could be helpful, It could be helpful. Okay. So
Speaker 9: Chipotle shareholders, this is because of the skipping on the
Speaker 9: portion sizes. Remember that whole fiasco that happened. Okay, So
Speaker 9: shareholders now suing the company because they're saying the stock
Speaker 9: was affected because they weren't so open about how many
Speaker 9: places this was affecting. So they're saying it forced them
Speaker 9: to spend more on ingredients, hurt the stock price. So
Speaker 9: they're saying they realize the claims because people began complaining
Speaker 9: on social media, posting about the skimping on the the
Speaker 9: the portion sizes. So according to the complaint, I mean,
Speaker 9: this is what's happening.
Speaker 3: So all right, here's what.
Speaker 4: I'm a Chipotle. Yeah, what's today? What's today? Tomorrow's in
Speaker 4: my Chipotle day? I usually get three beef hard tacos
Speaker 4: with chicken. Okay, and then they got crazy and started
Speaker 4: overfilling them because of the social media backlash. I think
Speaker 4: they got the word came down. We're getting a lot
Speaker 4: of grief for underfilling our tagos and whatever.
Speaker 3: Overfill them now. So now I only get two verses three.
Speaker 7: Where maybe you remember that where I mean we there again.
Speaker 7: I mean, this is when these where's the beef moment
Speaker 7: all over again?
Speaker 3: I'd tell you it's good stuff.
Speaker 9: I always thought that they overfilled it because you get
Speaker 9: the bowl and it's like weighs like ten pounds. But okay,
Speaker 9: but yeah, so now there there's a lawsuit in the work,
Speaker 9: so they got a lot going on. Lastly, if I
Speaker 9: don't know if you ever tried the twenty three and
Speaker 9: meters like those DNA testing things, So if you ever have,
Speaker 9: you know, the company's been struggling right So now it's
Speaker 9: saying it's laying off forty percent off its workforce, more
Speaker 9: than two hundred people. Restructuring they said would save the
Speaker 9: company thirty five million dollars annually, and it's coming from
Speaker 9: its drug development arm. That's what they're going to be
Speaker 9: closing down. But the CEO has been looking to take
Speaker 9: the company private and it's been, you know, it's been unprofitable.
Speaker 9: People people take the DNA test once and that's all
Speaker 9: they kind of really need to do.
Speaker 7: Have you tried it, Damien, I'm not trying it, you know.
Speaker 7: I mean, this isn't where it tells you what your
Speaker 7: linear ancestry.
Speaker 5: It is.
Speaker 7: Okay, my wife did it. I don't want to give
Speaker 7: you the results. I was a little bit shocked. I
Speaker 7: thought I was marrying somebody completely different than it was.
Speaker 7: But look, I trust twenty three in me, and their
Speaker 7: results are probably you know, I mean, I'm sure, I'm
Speaker 7: sure you got some stship.
Speaker 3: Oh, I don't know why.
Speaker 7: I'm a trusting kind of guy, you know. Look, let's
Speaker 7: go back to the fact. I'm just getting a note
Speaker 7: in here from some of our listeners. There's a few
Speaker 7: other you know things out there that are perfect, right.
Speaker 7: I mean, you can talk about, you know, college sports,
Speaker 7: you can talk about Oregon, Indiana BYU Army. They're all perfect.
Speaker 7: But the interesting story here fordham Water Polo now twenty
Speaker 7: eight and oh wow, fordham Water Polo man is perfection. Yes,
Speaker 7: I'm sorry, I just had to deviate there. It's really
Speaker 7: really important. One of my listeners is really is a
Speaker 7: big fordham Water polo van.
Speaker 9: Did sure gets to be California, right, is in California
Speaker 9: like the King of like Water Polo, But forda not anymore.
Speaker 7: Welcome to New York City.
Speaker 3: Sorry.
Speaker 4: That is our newspaper segment for today with Lisa Manteo.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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