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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple Carplayer or Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Jay Haffle joints us.

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Speaker 4: He's the CEO, founder and portfolio manager Infrastructure Capital Advisors. Jay,

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Speaker 4: what did you make or what are you making? How

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Speaker 4: are you thinking about your outlook? You've got a Republican

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Speaker 4: in the White House, Republican Senate, and likely Republican House.

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Speaker 3: How does that inform your outlook for markets?

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Speaker 5: Thanks, Paul, it's great to be on.

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Speaker 6: Well.

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Speaker 5: We're much more focused on the corporate talx rate than

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Speaker 5: almost anyone else they're politicians or investors, and the reason

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Speaker 5: for that is that it's really the key driver of growth,

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Speaker 5: not for just the companies, but also for the country

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Speaker 5: as a whole. And you can do the math very

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Speaker 5: simply by applying the a pro form a corporate tax

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Speaker 5: rate to earnings and then giving some credit for higher

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Speaker 5: growth because growth is driven by reinvested earnings, so if

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Speaker 5: there's more earnings, you grow faster. So we are coming

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Speaker 5: up with our seventy five hundred target. It's twenty three

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Speaker 5: times consensus earnings, so you can get on the terminal.

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Speaker 5: That's where we get it, and then adjusted for the

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Speaker 5: new tax rate. And so it sounds perhaps a bit

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Speaker 5: nutty at seventy five hundred, but a lot of people

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Speaker 5: thought our six thousand target for the SMP was netty

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Speaker 5: this year, which doesn't look very nutty right now. Maybe

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Speaker 5: too conservative, but not nutty. And so we actually have

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Speaker 5: superior target technology. And or you have been quite accurate,

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Speaker 5: at least during the pandemic.

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Speaker 7: So Jay, you're talking that you're basically calling the market

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Speaker 7: out here. You're saying their fear of rising inflation is

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Speaker 7: somewhat irrational. And I just want to kind of for

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Speaker 7: our audience put some numbers out there. One year one

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Speaker 7: year inflation swaps. That's what you know, the market is

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Speaker 7: projecting average inflation to be in one year's time. It's

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Speaker 7: up twenty two basis points at two point seven percent.

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Speaker 7: You've got you know, the US and one year inflation

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Speaker 7: swap alone at two point five percent five four percent. Last,

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Speaker 7: I mean, talk to us a little bit about your

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Speaker 7: expectations for inflation under a Trump regime.

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Speaker 5: Well, we think investors look at way too many data

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Speaker 5: points to predict inflation. If you look at ten data

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Speaker 5: points to predict inflation and only to matter, then you're

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Speaker 5: going to be wrong eighty percent of the time. So

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Speaker 5: we look at just two things. And if you use

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Speaker 5: this since World War Two, you had been the perfect

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Speaker 5: inflation forecaster. Money supply and oil prices, both of which

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Speaker 5: are negative for the last year. And it's also important

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Speaker 5: not to confuse so disinflationary. We're we're at risk of

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Speaker 5: a disinflation right now in our model. In fact, if

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Speaker 5: you adjust the current CPI for shelter which is miscalculated,

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Speaker 5: a brand auto insurance and repair which is pandemic distorted,

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Speaker 5: we would have zero inflation. So we are much more

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Speaker 5: bullish about inflation in the market. We think that'll be

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Speaker 5: reflected slowly, not at this CPI. We're projecting an inline

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Speaker 5: CPI at point three, but as we as it unfolds,

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Speaker 5: we think it'll undershoot. We also think that the bond markets,

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Speaker 5: ahead of us itself, we're going to have rebalancing, So

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Speaker 5: we're projecting and in fact and plicit, our target is

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Speaker 5: more like a three fifty to four percent treasury. So

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Speaker 5: if we're wrong about treasuries, then our target will be wrong.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think I think the real I mean, for me,

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Speaker 7: the real risk to that is obviously if something blows

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Speaker 7: up in the Middle East, right, because if you're if

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Speaker 7: you're right, it's money supply and its energy prices, oil

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Speaker 7: prices specifically, you know, I think, you know, that's the

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Speaker 7: one kind of thing that might derail your seventy five hundred.

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Speaker 5: You know, target on the S and P. Absolutely, Damien.

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Speaker 5: And that's a great point because I think everybody's obsessing

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Speaker 5: about the you know, deporting criminals as being inflationary, which

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Speaker 5: I've looked at my Warden textbooks and I've never found

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Speaker 5: that criminals were anti deflationary, but or the import taxes.

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Speaker 5: But I I'll give you a case that the Trump

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Speaker 5: policy is inflationary, and that is it's not discussed so far.

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Speaker 5: But I don't know if you noticed that in Wall

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Speaker 5: Street JOURNALI has said that Trump had been targeted for

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Speaker 5: assassination by Iranians. Well, there's a reason for that. He's

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Speaker 5: going to reimpose oil extra inflation restrictions, which is inflationary.

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Speaker 5: So that's the inflationary case. I would look at that,

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Speaker 5: But keep in mind that oil is extremely weak right now.

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Speaker 5: It's partly seasonal, so it's not clear that that wouldn't

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Speaker 5: really be effective and dry prices up. But I would

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Speaker 5: watch that, and that is a real concern.

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Speaker 4: A twenty three multiple, that's not what I learned in

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Speaker 4: business school. I don't know where you went to business school,

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Speaker 4: but my business twenty three times earnings.

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Speaker 5: Well, there's two factors. One I already mentioned, which if

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Speaker 5: we're wrong about the bond market, we're wrong about the multiple.

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Speaker 5: But the other thing that is not in those numbers.

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Speaker 5: So I would say the risk, just like our six

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Speaker 5: thousand target is to the upside, is there's a ton

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Speaker 5: of dynamic effects that are not reflected there. So if

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Speaker 5: the US goes to a fifteen percent stated corporate tax rate,

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Speaker 5: we're going to be a tax haven. Think of all

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Speaker 5: the capital. It's going to be like Ireland as grows

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Speaker 5: at six percent, Like we're gonna have you know, phony

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Speaker 5: shell companies with employees here. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 5: dynamic deregulations not in our number. There's a lot of

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Speaker 5: positive when you have a pro business administration and Congress,

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of dynamic factors that can't get captured,

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Speaker 5: so we think that even twenty three, and also AI.

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Speaker 5: During AI booms, you typically have overshoot on valuation, so

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Speaker 5: we don't think twenty three is crazy by any means.

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Speaker 7: Well, Paul, remember Ja may have gone the Wharton, but

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Speaker 7: he was really educated at the school of Steve alan

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Speaker 7: Cone at SAC Capital back in the day. And Steve

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Speaker 7: likes to pay seven hundred billion dollars for baseball players

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Speaker 7: who formerly played for the New York yankis er may

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Speaker 7: still again be playing.

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Speaker 3: For the New York Gakigs.

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Speaker 7: I mean, Jay talked to us a little bit about

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Speaker 7: you know, some of some of the things you're seeing here.

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Speaker 7: The dollar is rallying, I mean, copper prices are down,

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Speaker 7: iron ore is down. You know. Any read through from that.

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Speaker 5: Well, there continues to be concerned about China growth, you know,

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Speaker 5: their key consumer of commodities. We're actually more bullish than

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Speaker 5: most about China. They do save forty five percent of

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Speaker 5: their GDP, which the IMF estimates every ten percent is

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Speaker 5: one point five percent of growth. They don't get that

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Speaker 5: because they've wasted on communist projects. But over time they

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Speaker 5: will have pretty strong growth. So we're actually bullish on commodities.

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Speaker 5: We do think oil prices will come off these lows,

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Speaker 5: but I think that a lot of the weakness you're

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Speaker 5: seeing there is, as you've indicated, the dollar, but also

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Speaker 5: some concerns about China.

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Speaker 3: Small caps can we play those years.

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Speaker 5: We like small caps. We have a small camp funds cap.

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Speaker 5: What a lot of people miss about that is you're

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Speaker 5: really mostly they are cheap, but you're getting a consolidation play.

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Speaker 5: But also you're getting non tech exposure. So small caps

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Speaker 5: are only ten percent tech, so you're getting a lot

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Speaker 5: of financials. We love financials, particularly investment banks. We in

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Speaker 5: fact we're carrying earnings estimates thirty percent above consensus for

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Speaker 5: Goldman Sachs. But there's a lot of small investment banks

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Speaker 5: in the small cap index, so it's a way to

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Speaker 5: bet on kind of the non tech sectors in the market.

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Speaker 3: All right, very good, great stuff. As always. Jay Hafeld,

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Speaker 3: he's to see you.

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Speaker 4: He's the founder Portfolio Management Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on

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Speaker 2: app or watch US Live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Heidi Preboat Rudger joins US.

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Speaker 4: She's the adjunct Senior Fellow on the Council for Foreign Relations.

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Speaker 3: She joins us HEID.

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Speaker 4: When you woke up Wednesday morning, I've been asking this

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Speaker 4: question for a lot of market investors, how did maybe

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Speaker 4: the election change their investment outlook? Maybe I'll ask it

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Speaker 4: to you in this context, how did it change perhaps

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Speaker 4: the way you feel the US will conduct foreign policy

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Speaker 4: over the next four years.

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Speaker 8: So I think we're in for some some pretty significant

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Speaker 8: changes in many areas of the of the world. We

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Speaker 8: have a very complicated backdrop of conflicts both in the

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Speaker 8: Middle East, in obviously in Europe with Russia Ukraine, and

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Speaker 8: then this ongoing competition with China and potential for real,

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Speaker 8: real disruption in the South China Sea, and the question

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Speaker 8: of Taiwan comes up, obviously, So I think you know,

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Speaker 8: there are you know, we just heard that Marco Rubio

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Speaker 8: is the likely nominee for Secretary of State. He is

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Speaker 8: not an isolationist, and he is one of the leading

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Speaker 8: China Hawks. So I think for directionally that is that's

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Speaker 8: going to be very important. He's he certainly knows the

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Speaker 8: State Department, and he has very strong wrong views, very

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Speaker 8: pro Israel, so that I think we're starting to see

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Speaker 8: what that direction of a Trump administration foreign policy is

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Speaker 8: going to look like.

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Speaker 7: Well, Heid, you took the words right out of my

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Speaker 7: mouth there. I mean, that's exactly what I want to

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Speaker 7: ask you. We know everybody's at China Hawk here. But

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Speaker 7: my question is what does Mark Rubia, Mike Waltz and

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Speaker 7: at least DEFINEX stand on other other places like Israel

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Speaker 7: for example, and Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: So I think you have very strong supporters of Israel.

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Speaker 8: I think you know that is that's without question with

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Speaker 8: both with the least Stephonic, with with Marco Rubio and

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Speaker 8: with with Waltz. But you also have you have concerns,

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Speaker 8: very very significant concerns about where the direction of the

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Speaker 8: Ukraine Russia conflict is going and how how this administration,

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Speaker 8: incoming Trump administration is going to is going.

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Speaker 1: To deal with with you.

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Speaker 8: Know, first and foremost, you know, incoming president and Trump

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Speaker 8: has said he was going to end the conflict before

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Speaker 8: he actually gets into office. I'm not sure how that happens.

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Speaker 8: It's it's a very complicated world out there. You now

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Speaker 8: have China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea all working together

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Speaker 8: in various ways to to to keep and to triumph

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Speaker 8: in a number of those conflict areas that we just

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Speaker 8: talked about. So it's far more complicated than it was

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Speaker 8: when Trump was in office.

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Speaker 7: Before Heidi, you mentioned the Hermit State, and so we

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Speaker 7: need to go there. I mean, North Korea has fallen

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Speaker 7: under the radar amidst what's going on, you know, more

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Speaker 7: broadly speaking, in the Middle East, in Eastern Europe, and

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Speaker 7: you know now we have North Korean troops on the

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Speaker 7: ground in Ukraine. I mean, talk to us a little

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Speaker 7: bit about what that means. Has that is that a

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Speaker 7: form of escalation? Does the US?

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Speaker 5: Does? You know?

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Speaker 7: President left Trump needs to respond to that.

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Speaker 1: So it is very concerning.

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Speaker 8: I don't think that it's flown under the radar at

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Speaker 8: all with the national security community, and there there's very

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Speaker 8: you there's limited visibility into what deals were done between

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Speaker 8: Russia and North Korea to actually get them to send

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Speaker 8: their their troops to UH into into this conflict. And

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Speaker 8: as as you know, there's you know, there are tens

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Speaker 8: of thousands of both Russian and with the addition of

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Speaker 8: North Korean troops actually on the on the front with

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Speaker 8: with combat ready, and Ukraine is one one area where

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Speaker 8: I think you probably will see a significant change with

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Speaker 8: Trump and his new national security team because they will

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Speaker 8: focus mostly on on Asia and on China and uh.

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Speaker 8: You know, we've all heard about the calls that the

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Speaker 8: very that that Trump himself and uh and his close

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Speaker 8: team has had with President Putin, So I think you

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Speaker 8: know there there there are a lot of big Russian

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Speaker 8: marks out there, but the world is far more complicated.

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Speaker 1: North Korea is a really is a big.

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Speaker 8: Risk that that I think, particularly particularly given its proximity

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Speaker 8: to to to other two Asian allies, that we really

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Speaker 8: need to start watching very closely.

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Speaker 3: Heidi.

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Speaker 4: The Middle East another very difficult and fluid situation there.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned that President Trump and UH Marco Rubio pro Israel.

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Speaker 4: How do you envision that playing out US policy there,

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Speaker 4: because it doesn't seem like Israel has been listening to

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Speaker 4: the US over the past two.

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Speaker 8: Years, So you know, it's it's Minettnya who is is

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Speaker 8: is obviously complicated and and has and has a huge

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Speaker 8: momentum behind him in actually bringing bringing about a complete

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Speaker 8: colgering of of around proxies in the region, including Hamas,

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Speaker 8: Hizbola and and and I think you know, and the

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Speaker 8: hutis in Yemen, and so this is this becomes you know,

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Speaker 8: you have strong alignment with the incoming team to the

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Speaker 8: Trump administration vis a vis Iran and limiting, curtailing and

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Speaker 8: completely you know, cutting the legs out of Iran's ability

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Speaker 8: to actually to be an active, strong, active.

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Speaker 1: Catalyst and a negative catalyst in the region.

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Speaker 7: Heidi, thirty seconds or last, really quick, what's your thoughts

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Speaker 7: on what's going on in Germany here at the end

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Speaker 7: of all up Schultz, Friedrich Mertz, I mean, what role

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Speaker 7: do you think the US and President Trump is going

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Speaker 7: to play in that election?

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Speaker 8: So, I mean, obviously what's happening in Germany is it's

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Speaker 8: it's simultaneous with a massive change in power in the US.

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Speaker 1: And I do think that how.

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Speaker 8: Europe views its ability to ramp up its defense and

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Speaker 8: security when you have Trump coming in and really a

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Speaker 8: not a fan of Europe, be not a fan of

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Speaker 8: Germany and not necessarily willing to contribue to continue to

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Speaker 8: fund the operations in Ukraine. So Europe needs money, Germany

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Speaker 8: needs money. The person their business model is broken, amongst

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Speaker 8: other things. But I do think this early election, the

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Speaker 8: fact that you were likely to see Mertz and some

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Speaker 8: kind of a coalition with the Greens come about, is

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Speaker 8: very much worth paying attention to.

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Speaker 3: Heidi.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much for your time. We always appreciate

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Speaker 4: getting some of your thoughts.

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Speaker 3: Heidi creaeboat Rehticker.

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Speaker 4: She's an adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relationship.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecar Play Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 2: say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: Shri Kumar Joints. He's president of Shrie Kumar Global Strategy

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Speaker 4: and Damian. You'll appreciate this, Santa. He's been all over

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Speaker 4: the place. But how about this Drexel Burnham Lumpy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that is just good.

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Speaker 5: All this.

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Speaker 4: We're talking serious Wall Street creator Peabody. The kids don't

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Speaker 4: know those names are, but we do. Shre, thanks so

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Speaker 4: much for joining us here. The world's changed in the

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Speaker 4: last seven days. Here, Sri, give us your thirty thousand

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Speaker 4: foot view on the fact that we're going to have

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Speaker 4: a new Republican president, We're gonna have a Republican Senate

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Speaker 4: and potentially even Republican House of Representative as well. How's

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Speaker 4: that changed your view of these markets.

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Speaker 6: Paul, good to be with you and Damian. I think

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Speaker 6: the change happened. We didn't know who was going to

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Speaker 6: win last Tuesday, but now we have the victory, a

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Speaker 6: complete sweep by the Republicans, and it looks like the

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Speaker 6: House also will go their way. It is both good

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Speaker 6: and bad. The good part about it is it gives

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Speaker 6: you a clearer indication as to which economic policies the

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Speaker 6: president elect it would like to follow in his administration.

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Speaker 6: The uncertainty is how the markets will react. While the

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Speaker 6: equities have gone up sharply, there is more of a

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Speaker 6: doubt on the bond side, and you can see the

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Speaker 6: yields going up, and the mortgage rate is likely to

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Speaker 6: increase as well because of the expectation that the fiscal

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Speaker 6: deficit is not going to be controlled with the measures

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Speaker 6: that Donald Trump promised before the elections. That I think

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Speaker 6: is the big risk that I think is the big change, Paul,

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Speaker 6: in terms of what has happened, and look at the dollar.

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Speaker 6: The dollar has strengthened so much, and that is just

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Speaker 6: the opposite of what Trump wanted. He has always said

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Speaker 6: in his first administration he likes a cheap dollar, he

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Speaker 6: wants low interest rates. And both of them I think

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Speaker 6: are at risk now with a stronger dollar and potentially

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Speaker 6: higher interest rates in the United States.

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Speaker 7: So should we lift game this out here Beijing? Beijing,

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Speaker 7: are they going to depreciate the yuan relative to the

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Speaker 7: dollar if these tariffs go through. I mean that would

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Speaker 7: be the playbook.

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Speaker 6: Right, that would be the playbook. But they can try

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Speaker 6: and do that Demien in terms of what that would

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Speaker 6: achieve for them in terms of the trade side. But

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Speaker 6: if indeed the Trump is going to go ahead with

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Speaker 6: a sixty percent import tariff on Chinese products, any extent

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Speaker 6: of depreciation of the renmin byuan is not going to

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Speaker 6: offset it. The big problem is that the tariffs are

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Speaker 6: going to be more important than the exchange rate as

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Speaker 6: far as China is concerned. From a Trump point of view,

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Speaker 6: he has to look and see what the tariff increase

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Speaker 6: would do to the United States. I am a believer

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Speaker 6: that tariffs are bad. They will push up inflation rate.

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Speaker 6: And as a student of history, I looked at the

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Speaker 6: smooth Hawley tariff of June nineteen thirty. It was done

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Speaker 6: by President Herbert hoo worked with a very good intention.

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Speaker 6: We wanted to protect American farmers, we wanted to protect

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Speaker 6: American trade. Instead, it gave rise to retaliation by trade partners,

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Speaker 6: and that, in turn mays made the depression deeper and

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Speaker 6: more widespread than before. So that's the risk I think

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Speaker 6: Trump runs, and he needs to be very careful with

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Speaker 6: the tariff moves.

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Speaker 7: Well, sir, you mentioned nineteen thirty, and I'll pull out

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Speaker 7: my regime model and you know, quote ed your Denny

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Speaker 7: here and talk about the Roaring twenties. A lot of

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Speaker 7: people are making comparisons to this environment and that which

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Speaker 7: existed in the precursor to the Great Depression. Talk to

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Speaker 7: us a little bit about that. Do you see any

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Speaker 7: similarities there.

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Speaker 6: That is a similarity in the sense that before the

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Speaker 6: nineteen twenty nine thrash came, we had the big run

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Speaker 6: up during the nineteen twenties, and that was because of

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Speaker 6: policies which were expansionary. The Federal Reserve had been set

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Speaker 6: up in nineteen thirteen there was also an expectation that

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Speaker 6: things were going very well and you had a free

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Speaker 6: capitalist run taking place in the nineteen twenties. But just

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Speaker 6: as you say that it's the darkest before dawn, it's

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Speaker 6: also the brightest before night. And that's what you have

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Speaker 6: to be concerned about. That, as you had the Roaring twenties,

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Speaker 6: the nineteen thirties were nothing compared with a decade earlier,

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Speaker 6: and you want to prevent a repeat of that. And

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Speaker 6: that's why it behooves us to study the nineteen twenties

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Speaker 6: history and to prevent that from being repeated in the

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Speaker 6: twenty twenties.

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Speaker 4: Shre what's kind of your leading I guess investment thought

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Speaker 4: these days when you talk to your clients, because a

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Speaker 4: lot has changed in the last week, what's kind of

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Speaker 4: a theme you're going with with your clients these days?

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Speaker 6: I say two things. One, equities are very highly valued.

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Speaker 6: I don't pick securities, Paul, but I say to investors' clients,

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Speaker 6: be very careful what you pick, because you want to

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Speaker 6: be sure that the security characteristics are good enough for

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Speaker 6: you to be very highly invested in equities. That's one second.

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Speaker 6: On the fixed income side, I say to them that

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Speaker 6: you have a situation when bond yields could increase and

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Speaker 6: you could have a loss. And that's the case. You

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Speaker 6: want to reduce the duration of your fixed income presence.

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Speaker 6: Whether you are in US treasuries, high grade corporate bonds,

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Speaker 6: or you are in municipal bonds, you want to reduce it.

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Speaker 6: So that's the second one. And if you want to

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Speaker 6: add a third, I would say the sixty to forty

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Speaker 6: traditional portfolio no longer holds, and you want to have

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Speaker 6: more alternatives, global, real estate, other areas to reduce the

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Speaker 6: amount of risk in your total portfolio.

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Speaker 7: So three US treasure curves have flattened off the back

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Speaker 7: of the move inflation and growth expectations as built intoenomenal

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Speaker 7: US treasure yields have risen. Talk to us a little

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Speaker 7: bit about your expectations regarding US monetary policy and the Fed.

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Speaker 7: I mean, what are your thoughts on December and as

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Speaker 7: we look ahead into next year.

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Speaker 6: I am to make my bias very clear. I said

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Speaker 6: the September eighteenth, the Fed should not have cut interests

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Speaker 6: at all, let alone a fifty basis cop point cut.

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Speaker 6: I did not want to reduce it, and I've written

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Speaker 6: about it and once that happened. I'm not at all

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Speaker 6: surprised that long dated yields have risen as a result

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Speaker 6: of that, and then the FED cut interest rates again

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Speaker 6: last week. The expectation is that December there will be

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Speaker 6: a cut unless later this week we find out the

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Speaker 6: consumer price in is way out of control anything manageable.

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Speaker 6: I think Powell and his colleagues are going to cut

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Speaker 6: rates again in December, and that in turn would be

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Speaker 6: welcomed by the President elect as something positive. The negative

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Speaker 6: is going to come for FED policy, I believe in

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty five. And I again I am assuming that

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Speaker 6: Powell will continue to remain in office until May twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty six. That will not be a danger to his position.

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Speaker 6: He's going to lead the FED, and if that's the case,

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty six, he has to deal with the fact

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Speaker 6: that with inflationary expectations up because he has put so

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Speaker 6: much of cash into consumer pockets, that he has to

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Speaker 6: deal with higher long term yields, and how he is

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Speaker 6: going to monitory policy cuts and rates may come to

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Speaker 6: an end or even necessitate an increase in interest rates

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Speaker 6: during twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: Sure, just finally we've seen a big move hire in

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Speaker 4: the US dollar.

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Speaker 3: How much farther do you think that has to go?

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Speaker 6: The US dollar could go up a lot further depending

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Speaker 6: on Trump policies. Let me give you an example. If

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Speaker 6: he does go through with the campaign promise of a

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Speaker 6: ten percent cariff on all countries and a sixty percent

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Speaker 6: cariff on the sixty percent cadiff on China, expect the

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Speaker 6: dollar to strengthen massively. For example, we are below a

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Speaker 6: dollar seven cents this week, the lowest since June. I

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Speaker 6: can see the dollar going below parity, meaning less than

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Speaker 6: one dollar to buy one euro. If you are going

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Speaker 6: to be imposing a cariiff on all the countries, that's

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Speaker 6: how serious it is. And if Prump wants a week

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Speaker 6: dollar as well as tariffs, he cannot have both of them.

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Speaker 6: He has to choose.

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Speaker 4: Very good Shre Thank you so much for joining us there.

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Speaker 4: Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time.

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Speaker 3: Street Kumar.

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Speaker 4: He is a president Upstreet Kumar Global Strategies out there

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Speaker 4: in Los Angeles.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

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Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 4: You're daily look at the front pages around the rurld,

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Speaker 4: Lisa Matteo newspapers.

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Speaker 3: What do you got for us?

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Speaker 9: All right, So you've talked about it, Paul, how people

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Speaker 9: can easily cancel their subscriptions to streaming services. You go online,

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Speaker 9: you do a little click, and it's and it's done.

438
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,719
Speaker 9: So now the Wall Street Journal is calling this like

439
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 9: the new streaming habit. It's the subscription pause. So people

440
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 9: are canceling and then coming back and maybe if you know,

441
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 9: because they had a show that ended, so then they

442
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 9: cancel it and then they wait for the next season

443
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 9: to start and they come back and do it. So

444
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 9: it's really showing how streaming services really need to deliver

445
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 9: these hit shows, films, live events. It's showing this is

446
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,239
Speaker 9: why the pressure is on for them to do this

447
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 9: so they can keep getting those customers to come back

448
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 9: so quick. Numbers from Antenna It says the monthly medium

449
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 9: percentage of premium streaming videoscribers who rejoined the same service

450
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 9: they canceled within the private prior year thirty four point

451
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 9: two percent. In the first nine months of twenty twenty four,

452
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 9: and that was up from twenty nine point eight percent

453
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 9: and twenty twenty two. So I don't know if you've

454
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 9: done the whole pause okay situation I've been looking for.

455
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 4: I'm a huge fan of Yellowstone, Okay, so I thought

456
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 4: I could just go on paramounts Paramount create is the

457
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 4: does the yelsam? I go to Paramount. It's not there,

458
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 4: so I subscribe to it. Then I unsubscribe to it

459
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 4: five minutes later, and then I understand I google it.

460
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 4: Apparently it's on Peacock, So we're going to Peacock subscribe.

461
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 3: They're not there yet. They come later. I don't know

462
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 3: how that'll work.

463
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 7: So you get hit every time you subscribe, and then

464
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 7: unsubscribe to you get hit with like a month.

465
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:53,239
Speaker 3: I don't know.

466
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 4: I don't know if that definitelyribe so that it is

467
00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 4: a terrible business model compare to what I brought into

468
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 4: this world thirty years ago, when we were banking all

469
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 4: these media companies and you just paid one hundred bucks

470
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 4: a month and you got everything you needed.

471
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,679
Speaker 7: That's right, that's right. Every ala carte, the ala carte

472
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 7: approach to some streaming media is is definitely taking a

473
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 7: bit of a hit here. But it's I think it's

474
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 7: Netflix and everything else truthfully, I mean, let's be clear.

475
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 7: I mean, if you were subscribed to Netflix, you're not

476
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 7: canceling that anytime soon. But everything else, I mean Disney.

477
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 7: I haven't seen anything new come out on Disney. Who

478
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 7: I mean, well, who is different? I mean Peacock, You're right, Max,

479
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 7: you know it's it's it's hit or miss.

480
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 3: It's hit or miss. So I don't know. I mean,

481
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 3: I know you control your household with I I do.

482
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 9: I've canceled out a lot of I'm not the I'm

483
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 9: not the return.

484
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:35,959
Speaker 3: I just cancel.

485
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 9: I don't come back exactly.

486
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 3: So then like mom, what happened?

487
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 4: I we we're soldiers out there and you're canceling on him.

488
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 3: You can't get up.

489
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 4: That's not yep.

490
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 9: Sorry, Hey he has the YouTube subscription and he doesn't

491
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 9: give me his past. Okay, so I'm playing fair game.

492
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 3: All right, very good?

493
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 6: All right?

494
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 9: Moving on losing your luggage. You know, it's a big

495
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:57,200
Speaker 9: pain in the neck. I don't know if it's ever

496
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,959
Speaker 9: happened to you, But USA Today says this new Apple feature,

497
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 9: we'll let you tell the airline exactly where it is.

498
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 9: So it's in the latest iOS update. They're expanding the

499
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 9: functions of the find my feature. I don't know if

500
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 9: you use I use it to track my kids.

501
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 3: I checked my kids on it.

502
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 9: But they're saying that it's expanding it so now you

503
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 9: can share locations with other people, but also third party vendors.

504
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 9: So for example, if you're traveling and you lose your luggage,

505
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 9: you can share that location if you have an air

506
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 9: tag on it with the airword.

507
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 10: Get an air an air tag. Yes, I have my share.

508
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 10: Put air tags in every piece of luggage every time

509
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 10: we travel. I actually look when I'm in the plane

510
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 10: to make sure that the bags which are still the.

511
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 3: Terminal on the plane.

512
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 7: I mean you have to, how do you not. I

513
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 7: mean this has happened to me many times, by the way,

514
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 7: where I've lost my luggage, So I mean I'm scarred

515
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 7: for it.

516
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 3: I checked the bag of luggage in thirty years.

517
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I'll throw it on.

518
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 5: I'll throw it.

519
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 7: My daughter's shoe is just on the way to school,

520
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 7: to see where she's going. I mean I do what

521
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 7: I use those air top it.

522
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 9: In your wife's bag.

523
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 1: Okay, you said that.

524
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 3: And it does.

525
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 9: It could be helpful, It could be helpful. Okay. So

526
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 9: Chipotle shareholders, this is because of the skipping on the

527
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 9: portion sizes. Remember that whole fiasco that happened. Okay, So

528
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 9: shareholders now suing the company because they're saying the stock

529
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 9: was affected because they weren't so open about how many

530
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 9: places this was affecting. So they're saying it forced them

531
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 9: to spend more on ingredients, hurt the stock price. So

532
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 9: they're saying they realize the claims because people began complaining

533
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 9: on social media, posting about the skimping on the the

534
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 9: the portion sizes. So according to the complaint, I mean,

535
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 9: this is what's happening.

536
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 3: So all right, here's what.

537
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 4: I'm a Chipotle. Yeah, what's today? What's today? Tomorrow's in

538
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 4: my Chipotle day? I usually get three beef hard tacos

539
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 4: with chicken. Okay, and then they got crazy and started

540
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 4: overfilling them because of the social media backlash. I think

541
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 4: they got the word came down. We're getting a lot

542
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 4: of grief for underfilling our tagos and whatever.

543
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 3: Overfill them now. So now I only get two verses three.

544
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 7: Where maybe you remember that where I mean we there again.

545
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 7: I mean, this is when these where's the beef moment

546
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 7: all over again?

547
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 3: I'd tell you it's good stuff.

548
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 9: I always thought that they overfilled it because you get

549
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 9: the bowl and it's like weighs like ten pounds. But okay,

550
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 9: but yeah, so now there there's a lawsuit in the work,

551
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 9: so they got a lot going on. Lastly, if I

552
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 9: don't know if you ever tried the twenty three and

553
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 9: meters like those DNA testing things, So if you ever have,

554
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 9: you know, the company's been struggling right So now it's

555
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 9: saying it's laying off forty percent off its workforce, more

556
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 9: than two hundred people. Restructuring they said would save the

557
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 9: company thirty five million dollars annually, and it's coming from

558
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 9: its drug development arm. That's what they're going to be

559
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 9: closing down. But the CEO has been looking to take

560
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 9: the company private and it's been, you know, it's been unprofitable.

561
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 9: People people take the DNA test once and that's all

562
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 9: they kind of really need to do.

563
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 7: Have you tried it, Damien, I'm not trying it, you know.

564
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 7: I mean, this isn't where it tells you what your

565
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 7: linear ancestry.

566
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 5: It is.

567
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 7: Okay, my wife did it. I don't want to give

568
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 7: you the results. I was a little bit shocked. I

569
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 7: thought I was marrying somebody completely different than it was.

570
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 7: But look, I trust twenty three in me, and their

571
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 7: results are probably you know, I mean, I'm sure, I'm

572
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 7: sure you got some stship.

573
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 3: Oh, I don't know why.

574
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 7: I'm a trusting kind of guy, you know. Look, let's

575
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 7: go back to the fact. I'm just getting a note

576
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 7: in here from some of our listeners. There's a few

577
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 7: other you know things out there that are perfect, right.

578
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 7: I mean, you can talk about, you know, college sports,

579
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 7: you can talk about Oregon, Indiana BYU Army. They're all perfect.

580
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 7: But the interesting story here fordham Water Polo now twenty

581
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 7: eight and oh wow, fordham Water Polo man is perfection. Yes,

582
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 7: I'm sorry, I just had to deviate there. It's really

583
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 7: really important. One of my listeners is really is a

584
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 7: big fordham Water polo van.

585
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 9: Did sure gets to be California, right, is in California

586
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 9: like the King of like Water Polo, But forda not anymore.

587
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 7: Welcome to New York City.

588
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 3: Sorry.

589
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 4: That is our newspaper segment for today with Lisa Manteo.

590
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

591
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

592
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

593
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

594
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

595
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal