WEBVTT - Study Hall: Will The Market Crash After The Election?

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<v Speaker 2>Should we expect a crash or correction following a presidential election?

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<v Speaker 2>So who's in office? Hope if Trump wins, he is

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<v Speaker 2>as presidential as he was the first time when he won,

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<v Speaker 2>to give the market some kind of calm and relief.

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<v Speaker 2>So whether it be a pullback, yes, there's a pullback

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<v Speaker 2>every month. I don't think we will have a big

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<v Speaker 2>correction as a result, because I think once whoever wins

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<v Speaker 2>is in will be very clear and what the policies are,

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<v Speaker 2>and then you'll know which companies should do well based

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<v Speaker 2>on those affiliations and initiatives that they want to push

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<v Speaker 2>pull back. Yes, but I think there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>fear going into it. But if you look through any

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<v Speaker 2>presidential cycle, of course this summer maybe a little bit rocky,

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<v Speaker 2>but by the time we get I think to September October,

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<v Speaker 2>I think a winner will be priced in. There'll be

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<v Speaker 2>a strong Christmas rally, and then we have some issues

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<v Speaker 2>that we have to face going into next year. But

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<v Speaker 2>I think I think we'll be fine. I think we

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<v Speaker 2>worry too much about smaller issues that are not the

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<v Speaker 2>biggest reasons why the market will drop or fluctuate. I

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<v Speaker 2>would keep my eyes more so on interest rates if

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<v Speaker 2>there's a cut or if they raise quantitative easing, and

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<v Speaker 2>then also of other countries actually go through recession and

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<v Speaker 2>announce it. Those have more of a waiting than the

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<v Speaker 2>presidential election, and so for a trader you're going to

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<v Speaker 2>get a lot more volatility before the long term. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't see a big pullback as a result cost the

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<v Speaker 2>powers to be I think are telling them, like, you

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<v Speaker 2>need to signal some confidence to the market.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that that's the that's the key. When

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<v Speaker 1>you think of like presidential elections, even midterms. We spoke

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<v Speaker 1>about this uncertainly the least of volatility, absolutely, and so

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<v Speaker 1>there's no certainty. If we don't know where we had it,

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<v Speaker 1>then you might see some volatility. I don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>a correction will be in the calling cards, but based

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<v Speaker 1>on even like the Stock Stock Markets Almanac, if they

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<v Speaker 1>studied the history of presidential cycles, and it's always it

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<v Speaker 1>references the best six months to trade. So if we're tradered,

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<v Speaker 1>if we're investors, I always look at those best six months,

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<v Speaker 1>especially when we're talking about post election or we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>like pre election or midterms, and historically it's been from

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<v Speaker 1>the month of November to April. So obviously November fourth,

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<v Speaker 1>the election will happen. Traditionally in an election year, it's

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<v Speaker 1>been a hold, right, people will hold wherever the positions

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<v Speaker 1>they're in to see where we're going to settle because

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<v Speaker 1>obviously there might be uncertainty or it could be certainty

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<v Speaker 1>and say all right, well the incumbent will be run

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<v Speaker 1>back and then like you said, we prepare for the

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<v Speaker 1>next year. And so we've seen the summer months slow down,

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<v Speaker 1>and so the worst six months post election has been

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<v Speaker 1>obviously from May to October and so historically that has

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<v Speaker 1>shown that since nineteen forty nine, So we got to

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<v Speaker 1>keep that into mind. But again, I think it's priced

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<v Speaker 1>in by I would say September at hfall historically over

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<v Speaker 1>the past five years, and I saw I said, micromoney

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<v Speaker 1>is just such a great parameter of that we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>the past three Septembers and what that has meant when

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about sell offs, when we're talking about people

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<v Speaker 1>trying of fish out their fiscal year, we've seen pullbacks

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<v Speaker 1>across the board, whether it's the dial, whether it's thats

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<v Speaker 1>and P where it's an astack. We've seen October some pullbacks.

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<v Speaker 1>And if we look at the history of pullbacks, look

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<v Speaker 1>at when these crashes have happened, look at when these

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<v Speaker 1>corrections have happened in those in those months. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think it gets priced in and then after I think

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<v Speaker 1>we'll settle, and then I'll be looking to figure out

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<v Speaker 1>all right, certainty. Uncertainty will determine the valatility, and they

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<v Speaker 1>determined if we if and when we should invest.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, look at backs is the time to get into

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<v Speaker 2>the market more than anything, like just change the way

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<v Speaker 2>you see it in quality companies, only a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>people run into trouble when you're trying to trade it

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<v Speaker 2>or buy companies that are not quality. And I know

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<v Speaker 2>people are like, how long can you talk about Apple,

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<v Speaker 2>Microsoft and video Tested the Lily. I'm like, if there

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<v Speaker 2>are more quality stocks like that's howthing like KLA that

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<v Speaker 2>are quality Auto Zone, But there isn't. I remember maybe

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<v Speaker 2>twelve years ago you probably had sixty or seventy great

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<v Speaker 2>companies that you can get returns from. It's not like

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<v Speaker 2>that anymore. Give up on sector rotation. Just focus on

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<v Speaker 2>the ones that are great. Indexes first and ETFs then

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<v Speaker 2>add to to that you'll be fine. But I think

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of these issues with losses come from trying

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<v Speaker 2>to time it on a trade basis, where if you

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<v Speaker 2>hold it for a long period of time, everything is

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<v Speaker 2>going to be okay. If I made you money, please

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<v Speaker 2>for yes, and check invest is not that damn. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not rocket sciences show.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah somethings.

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<v Speaker 2>It was hard, like taking the moon landing. That's tough.

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<v Speaker 3>This easy.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, some things from a political standpoint could affect right

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<v Speaker 1>when we're talking about taxes, when we're talking about capital

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<v Speaker 1>game TAXI thirty four percent, that's just I mean, that's crazy.

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<v Speaker 1>And then obviously when we're talking about tariffs. I think

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<v Speaker 1>it was two weeks ago we started talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>tarists that are zoomed to be put on on China

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<v Speaker 1>if if President Biden remains in office. That can effect companies.

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<v Speaker 1>Right when we're talking about especially that region of the

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<v Speaker 1>world and some of the companies and that of building

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<v Speaker 1>there with the hopes of finding a global landscape to

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<v Speaker 1>expand their businesses, that plays a part. That plays a part,

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<v Speaker 1>so that that could affect the bottom line for a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of companies.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, okay, So what about this company Archer. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know. I don't know what happened. Maybe something in

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<v Speaker 2>the Memestock area happened, But a lot of people are

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<v Speaker 2>asking me about this Archer aviation. I don't see what

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<v Speaker 2>the hype is. The high was seventeen bucks in twenty twenty.

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<v Speaker 2>It's currently a three thirty cent. If you want to gamble,

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<v Speaker 2>go ahead. But like if Boeing's in trouble, Archer aviation,

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<v Speaker 2>which Boeing you can argue as a infrastructure and government

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<v Speaker 2>investment as well if they're not doing as well. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know why what happened in the Memestock plan to

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<v Speaker 2>make people want this one. But I'm not a big

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<v Speaker 2>fan of this one.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I'm looking. I looked it up a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>So they're responsible for I guess the flying helicopter, like

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<v Speaker 1>all the electric helicopter flies on its own. So they

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<v Speaker 1>partner with ETA, which is and we know if you

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<v Speaker 1>watch the Premier League, if you watch anything in soccer,

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<v Speaker 1>huge huge, right, huge brand. When we talk about Emirates

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<v Speaker 1>and we talk about ETA, those are the two biggest

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<v Speaker 1>airlines and companies. But yeah, I no electric flying taxis.

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<v Speaker 1>There's too many other quality things to be invested in

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<v Speaker 1>outside of that. Just looking at this chart, this would

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<v Speaker 1>be something, as an example, if we looked at it

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<v Speaker 1>like as something that you shouldn't invest in, stay away,

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<v Speaker 1>Like yeah, if we're looking at from a six month,

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking at from a year, two year, not really attractive,

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<v Speaker 1>not really attractive at all. So I'm not big on this one.

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<v Speaker 3>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 3>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from El Salvador

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<v Speaker 3>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

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<v Speaker 3>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

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<v Speaker 3>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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<v Speaker 3>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States

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<v Speaker 3>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

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<v Speaker 3>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

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<v Speaker 3>are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly

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<v Speaker 3>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported, you will

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<v Speaker 3>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

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<v Speaker 3>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

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<v Speaker 3>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

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<v Speaker 3>border and families will be protected.

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<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.