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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Everything we do, folks here is about a conversation with

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Speaker 2: people with breadth. There are few in the Western world

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Speaker 2: with a breadth of finance, like Cuba and Steinas. I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to bore you with a resume. He wandered

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Speaker 2: by a school named Oxford a few years ago, did

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Speaker 2: some serious work with Bank of England and added tour

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Speaker 2: duty at Morgan Stanley. He is definitive on our financial system.

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Speaker 2: Tim Adams Scott Bessent ten am, what's a question you

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Speaker 2: would ask a secretary treasurer?

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Speaker 3: Wow, thanks to having me on look.

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Speaker 4: One conversation I'm hearing which doesn't come out in the

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Speaker 4: press much is about the strain on cash flow for

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Speaker 4: small business.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's a huge topic for private equity and

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Speaker 3: for banks.

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Speaker 4: Right, Let's imagine you put in a ten million order

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Speaker 4: in for toys. You now have to pay twenty four

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Speaker 4: million dollars if they come from China, you simply don't

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Speaker 4: have that cash flow. So my question would be, how

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Speaker 4: worried are you about small business not being able to

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Speaker 4: stock their shelves?

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Speaker 2: Okay, folks, you flunk this in a CFA exam. I've

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Speaker 2: done and I've enjoyed it. Working capital, and this is

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Speaker 2: to go into the way a business runs. There's a

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Speaker 2: thing called the cash conversion cycle. Part. Did you memorize

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Speaker 2: that that was with the three ratio and the five ratio?

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Speaker 2: Do plat formula que Vestin is your expert at this?

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Speaker 2: When you see terror of adjustments, I don't understand how

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Speaker 2: you go from three percent to ten percent or one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent and your world blows up. I mean that's

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Speaker 2: where we are right.

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Speaker 4: Well, look, I don't think any of us have seen

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Speaker 4: anything like this before. I mean I think I wrote

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Speaker 4: a bit about the Nixon shock where obviously Nixon did

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Speaker 4: impose a ten percent tariff for four months, for four months,

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Speaker 4: but I guess the markets can't stand that, you know,

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Speaker 4: wouldn't tolerate four months here and that did is you

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Speaker 4: know that did lead to product shortages and to price

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Speaker 4: bikes because people couldn't forget cash conversion cycle?

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Speaker 2: Do at Walmart. That's the heart of the matter.

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Speaker 4: That probably Walmart's not my expertise, But if I think

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Speaker 4: about the conversations we're having, the focus is predictlarly around

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Speaker 4: retailers small businesses who just don't have the cash buffer.

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Speaker 4: If your Walmart, clearly you're really large, you're very sophisticated,

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Speaker 4: you do have big cash buffers. But if you're a

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Speaker 4: small business running from quarter to quarter to month to month,

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Speaker 4: how are you going to be able to pay two

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Speaker 4: point four times what you expected when you may be

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Speaker 4: worried about not a pubby able to pass it on.

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Speaker 4: So what we're picking up is people trying to wriggle

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Speaker 4: out of their orders if they can, and at least

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Speaker 4: not renew those orders. That's the conversation the Finance is having,

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Speaker 4: which I don't see enough in the main impress yet.

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Speaker 5: To the extent that the President in this team are

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Speaker 5: walking back some of this tariff rhetoric. Has some of

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Speaker 5: the damage already been done? Do you think are we

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Speaker 5: seeing in the system already just because of the rhetoric?

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Speaker 4: So this is so I think this is what we

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Speaker 4: distinguished between like sort of the growth shock and then

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Speaker 4: kind of let's call it the more institutional shock, what

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Speaker 4: all the taboo questions which we wouldn't have asked in

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Speaker 4: the past, which now opened. I think in terms of growth,

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Speaker 4: it clearly has been a bit of a punch in

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Speaker 4: the gut for small business, which is the heartlands of America.

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Speaker 4: Larger business are clearly ducking and diving through this. If

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Speaker 4: I think about my area, thinking about the finance, finance, Look,

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Speaker 4: the volatility has actually been quite good for the investment

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Speaker 4: banks because I've been trading, yep. But the business confidence

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Speaker 4: that one section. But the lack of conder corporate confidence

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Speaker 4: is pushing deals to the right and certainly our conversations

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Speaker 4: as some firms think, actually the deal pick up now

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Speaker 4: is not till twenty twenty seven, not till twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: First, wow.

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Speaker 5: Interesting. So I mean, I guess if nothing else, you know,

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Speaker 5: we've this a million times before. The markets don't like uncertainty.

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Speaker 5: But we're starting to see it in the survey data,

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Speaker 5: whether it's the University of Michigan data or that you know,

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Speaker 5: the pmis it's out there, right, I mean, it's not

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Speaker 5: in the hard data. Maybe the FED looks like but

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Speaker 5: we certainly see it in some of the other software data.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, look you I'm sure you know my

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Speaker 4: good friend Torston's looks great. On's trying to slice andize this.

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Speaker 4: But if you look at you know ships coming into

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Speaker 4: La or elsewhere about the stocking that they're down by

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Speaker 4: a third to a half, that's clearly a sign of

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Speaker 4: stress coming into the system. No, look, I mean at

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Speaker 4: the data will come through, but the FED will need

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Speaker 4: to be very data to well. Could always be data dependent,

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Speaker 4: but it will be the historic data. Markets are clearly

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Speaker 4: going to move way faster to.

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Speaker 2: Von steinas with US folks, Oliver Wyman can't see the

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Speaker 2: importance of this for Global Wall Street even more important

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Speaker 2: in fifty minutes, Scott besn't with Tim Adams in Washington,

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Speaker 2: hugely anticipated. Okay, you mentioned Torsten Slock, your Apollo management.

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Speaker 2: You want to go out a choir, you get the

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Speaker 2: Deutsche b brain power of doctor Slock. Wonderful. The bottom line,

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Speaker 2: and this is Paul's world, is I don't buy for

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Speaker 2: a minute. Everything's wonderful and private equity. What does an

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Speaker 2: adult like you do? What are the tea leaves, the

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Speaker 2: litmus paper, the measurements you're looking for for stresses in

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Speaker 2: private equity.

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Speaker 3: It's a great question.

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Speaker 4: Look, these are unbelievably entrepreneurial folk, and so they're trying

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Speaker 4: to sort of weave their way through this. Look, I

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Speaker 4: think the first and second line is really about the

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Speaker 4: order books. Has the sales come down, whether I've got

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Speaker 4: highly leveraged companies trying to forensically work through that. So

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Speaker 4: I think it's about cash conservation and it's about getting

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Speaker 4: a cost down. So I'm already picking up people saying

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Speaker 4: to all their management teams, have you thought about a

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Speaker 4: cost round? What are you doing about that? So that's one,

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Speaker 4: But on the other side in credit land, they're actually

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Speaker 4: people trying to look this as an opportunity and actually

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Speaker 4: trying to buy in.

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Speaker 3: Some of the credits.

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Speaker 4: A wider spreads than we'd see in eight weeks.

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Speaker 2: There's somebody selling those spreads totally. Do they book a

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Speaker 2: loss now.

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Speaker 4: To again, it depends depends we turn about the private

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Speaker 4: Let's be clear, about sixty percent of the new influs

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Speaker 4: for the private market firms for the last two years

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Speaker 4: has been credit and overwhelming. As we've discussed before, that's

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Speaker 4: coming from the insurers. These are steady hands they want

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Speaker 4: to deploy in size, but obviously on the equity side

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Speaker 4: there more stress in the system. Bo was okay, g okay?

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Speaker 5: So you have has Wall Street kind of with the

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Speaker 5: earning sessments out there? Has was Street adjusted to this

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Speaker 5: no uncertainty or do you still see downside risk to

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Speaker 5: earning sessments out there?

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Speaker 3: God?

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Speaker 4: Look, I think that Let's be clear. Everyone is struggling

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Speaker 4: to comprehend the range of scenarios. So to give you

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Speaker 4: a simple answer is just it's just inconceivable. I think

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Speaker 4: the like what are them the simpler moves, there's like

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Speaker 4: the overwhelming conclusion of this where we to to find

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Speaker 4: a better way to diversify your portfolio, and that at

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Speaker 4: the moment than one way trade is look more towards

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Speaker 4: Europe and Asia and look, European banks is stop twenty

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Speaker 4: five percent year today.

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Speaker 3: Wow, you know, let's be clear, you.

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Speaker 4: Know, and I know that may not be the place

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Speaker 4: that's now that's a smaller market for you, but I've

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Speaker 4: clearly on this side of the pond there are Look,

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Speaker 4: I think it comes back to how corporate confidence plays

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Speaker 4: out on the stress and the system and how quickly

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Speaker 4: the demonstration blinks. These are you know, complex questions which

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Speaker 4: you're dealing with every day.

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Speaker 2: Sorry, this is this wheelhouse. Hugh Einstein is folks. You

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Speaker 2: know you got to start somewhere, and he started by

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Speaker 2: being the required fourteen page read every four or five

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Speaker 2: days in the European banks. I mean, I'm don't you, folks,

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Speaker 2: But Hugh doesn't understand. He's never used a Bloomberg. Here's

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Speaker 2: no clue. And the bottom line is I got JP

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Speaker 2: Morgan hitting the ball out of the park with a

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Speaker 2: priced book of two times in trading at one third

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Speaker 2: even after the twenty five percent rally is BMP Perry

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Speaker 2: Bar of Paris. I get the idea that the English,

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Speaker 2: the French, whatever, banks are off the mat, but do

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Speaker 2: they have the growthiness of America? I don't buy it.

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 4: I toltally by that. So that's a that's a value trade,

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Speaker 4: not a growth trade. Look, I think the challenge here

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Speaker 4: is this is a growth shock and then somewhat of

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Speaker 4: an institutional shock. And I think all the financials I'm

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Speaker 4: talking to are working through reworking their plans, but they're

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Speaker 4: struggling to sort of be precise because they just don't

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Speaker 4: know how quickly the administration will blink on tariffs and

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Speaker 4: there for how how big a shock it is to

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Speaker 4: the system. But you're right, Tom, we we're Europe's value trade,

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Speaker 4: not a growth trade.

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Speaker 5: So but you we have seen I guess as recently

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Speaker 5: as kind of late last year, very early this year,

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Speaker 5: international money, none US money, was coming into the US

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Speaker 5: markets in waves. I was really noticeable people were seeing

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Speaker 5: in fund flows. Now that seems to have reversed a

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Speaker 5: little bit and we're now seeing funds go back into

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Speaker 5: your back into other parts of the world. Is that

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Speaker 5: a short term trade or is that something morris able?

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Speaker 5: Do you think that those funds back out?

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Speaker 4: My sense from the international asset owners is that they

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Speaker 4: want to continue to repatriate, and I think that's partly

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Speaker 4: a concerned tactical concern about the market situation, but it's

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Speaker 4: also about weaker dollar. But also there's institutional pressure to

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Speaker 4: deploy at home. So if you're the Maple LX, sorry,

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Speaker 4: the largest date Canadian funds, they're looking to try and

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Speaker 4: help the home by the home building spree that my

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Speaker 4: old boss, Prime Minster Karney is going to be doing,

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Speaker 4: alongside many other interatives in Europe. Some of the big

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Speaker 4: pension funds are looking to help fund the defense spending

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Speaker 4: spree about to happen, So all of them are thinking

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Speaker 4: strategically they need to have more money back at home.

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Speaker 4: Now that's at the margin, but it's definitely more money

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Speaker 4: coming back.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's rip up the script and an extended conversation

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Speaker 2: with Hugh von Steins of Oliver Wine. You know Dan Tannemba,

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Speaker 2: I'm so brilliant and sanctions. They've really put together a

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Speaker 2: huge team at Oliver Wyman and we're thrilled he could

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Speaker 2: join us in our studios today in New York. So

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Speaker 2: then let's rip up the strip on this and go

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Speaker 2: sixty thousand feet Mark Kearney. Uh, you know there are

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Speaker 2: other worthies that are driving our mister Powell, the others

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Speaker 2: that are driving our financial system. The heart of the

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Speaker 2: matter is the renominal GDP. Finally, back almost to Conrad

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Speaker 2: add in our and Viilli Brandt, we got to have

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Speaker 2: a Germany with pop Do you buy it?

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Speaker 4: I So I think this is the spending of probably

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Speaker 4: up to a trillion euros about rearmament, defense and just

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Speaker 4: quite frankly, resilience is a real game change.

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Speaker 6: I think they're going to execute.

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Speaker 4: But I think there will be slower to execute them.

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Speaker 4: And the one era we've chattered back for is it's

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Speaker 4: not just about government spending. You need private sector spending.

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Speaker 4: And the kind of breadth and depth of capital markets

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Speaker 4: in Europe are still not the deep depth you want.

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Speaker 4: And we need the plumbers. We need the plumbers to

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Speaker 4: try and get the system to work much more effectively.

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Speaker 4: The let's say, let's say, oh no, if you look

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Speaker 4: at the States, there is four trillion of US insurance

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Speaker 4: money is in the market to fund the system. European

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Speaker 4: insurers have got straight jacketed about how they can put

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Speaker 4: money into equities, into venture capital.

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Speaker 3: Private equity is the heart of the.

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Speaker 2: Matter, folks with he framed far smarter than me, or

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Speaker 2: the absolute heart of the matter. Can Europe can the

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Speaker 2: old world? Can Rubinian Taileeb's Old world equitize? That's the

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Speaker 2: heart of the matter.

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Speaker 3: I think it's right.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's equitized and providing risk capital because it's really

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Speaker 4: about its venture capital.

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Speaker 3: It's growing small businesses.

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Speaker 4: It's how do you do all these you know, defense

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Speaker 4: tech startups. We need a range of risk capital, I mean,

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Speaker 4: and the way we the markets it's improving, but we

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Speaker 4: need to turbo charge it from here.

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Speaker 2: I had a conversation with leguard Is, Trade Minister of

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Speaker 2: France ready twenty one years ago, and we were talking

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Speaker 2: the same thing we're talking to human.

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Speaker 6: Steve's exactly right now.

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Speaker 5: So Hugh, in terms of Europe kind of reinvesting in

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Speaker 5: their infrastructure, maybe in their military, there's I guess what

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Speaker 5: I've heard is Okay, Germany can do it. Poland probably

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Speaker 5: could do it just because they had been doing it

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Speaker 5: for a while because given their geographic location relative the Russia.

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Speaker 5: But can Spain do it? Can Italy do it? Can

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Speaker 5: Portugal do it? I mean did they have the wherewithal

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Speaker 5: to do that?

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Speaker 4: So there's a fiscal question, and then it's kind of

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Speaker 4: like do they have the right ecosystem, the skills, the expertise.

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Speaker 4: And you can see that actually, because Europe hasn't been

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Speaker 4: investing in defense, there's been a real aerospace is good

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Speaker 4: because there's a whole cluster around in the south of France.

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Speaker 4: Actually you should go and visit to what one time

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Speaker 4: around you know where you know the aerospace industry is

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Speaker 4: coming from. But elsewhere in terms of drones and some

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Speaker 4: of the other areas it's going to come. Look, the

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Speaker 4: fiscal challenges are huge, and that's the But in a way,

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Speaker 4: what we've seen here is that the fiscal spending has

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Speaker 4: been part of the US exceptionalism. The real booster to

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Speaker 4: spending here has come also from the government perse right now, wrongly.

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Speaker 4: I think we're getting to get some of that in

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Speaker 4: cour Europe. Whether we're going to go enough to justify

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Speaker 4: the evaluations, it is a bit tougher question un seen us.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now the fun for lunch Bunch crew Lisa

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Speaker 2: Matteo and Daniel Lives of of Red Bush. Here and

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Speaker 2: a bright pink for those of you on radio. You're

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Speaker 2: lucky wearing bright pink today? Comment down, Dan, is this

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Speaker 2: a corduroy? Look you're way it is?

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Speaker 6: It's it's corduroy. Will I mean a little? It could

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Speaker 6: be a little even Sweeney influenced. It's it's Lisa.

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Speaker 5: You can't see me wearing that, can you?

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Speaker 2: I could see him walking into a showroom at Tesla's showroom. Yes,

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Speaker 2: and I'll take one of those.

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Speaker 6: I'll take Paul.

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Speaker 2: Why don't you leave it up with his worship Dan.

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Speaker 5: We had Tesla report earnings last night. We had mister

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Speaker 5: Elon Musk on the earnings call. The earnings were very disappointing.

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Speaker 3: You have to stock is trading hired? Why is the

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Speaker 3: stock trading hired?

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Speaker 2: Here?

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Speaker 7: I mean numbers were basically took a back seat. We

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Speaker 7: already knew was a disaster recorder the reality. This was

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Speaker 7: the moment of truth from Musk.

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Speaker 6: To basically what I've used.

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Speaker 7: It's an off ram to Trump Whitehouse and doage, and

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Speaker 7: that's essentially what he did. And he took a major

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Speaker 7: step back on doage, says one two days a week.

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Speaker 7: I think there's the beginning of the end there and

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Speaker 7: going to recommit.

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Speaker 6: His CEO of Tessa.

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Speaker 7: Look, the reality is, and we've talked about on the show,

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Speaker 7: brand damage was at a point he had to read

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Speaker 7: the room and if he didn't make this decision now,

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Speaker 7: it would have been dark days ahead. And that's why

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Speaker 7: the stock's going to be up because now Tessa got

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Speaker 7: back at CEO.

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Speaker 5: Now Tesla's in a new world of competition. It just

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Speaker 5: looks to me as a you know, a lay person.

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Speaker 5: Here China is taking over the evy market globally with

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Speaker 5: the exception of the United States.

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Speaker 3: How does Tessa.

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Speaker 5: Deal with by D and others?

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Speaker 7: Look, I don't at first, I don't view as you

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Speaker 7: know that it's you know, you can't have success from

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Speaker 7: Tesla as well as Boyd. I don't have view as

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Speaker 7: zero some gunn. But look, Tessa has work cut out

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Speaker 7: for them. I mean they they have to have a

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Speaker 7: new vehicle that comes out. You have to have the

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Speaker 7: refresh in terms of model why and the reality is

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Speaker 7: China's forty five percent of out So that is the

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Speaker 7: hearts and lungs of Tesla.

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Speaker 6: But that's also why it's so important.

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Speaker 7: There's only one person that could engineer this turnaround in China.

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Speaker 5: It's Musk and I think Elon is probably the best

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Speaker 5: I've ever seen of kind of maybe Jeff Bezos as well,

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Speaker 5: kind of redirecting investor sentiment where he wants it to go.

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Speaker 5: And I think he's saying, don't look at me as

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Speaker 5: a metal bender car company, look at me as an

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Speaker 5: AI company, robotics company.

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Speaker 6: Is that valid?

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Speaker 7: I mean, we believe the core value of the future

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Speaker 7: of Tesla is autonomous and robotics. And obviously Keen will

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Speaker 7: being there on supervised fist in Austin in June. I

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Speaker 7: know he's getting ready. And look, I think this is

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Speaker 7: just the beginning of what we're going to see in

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Speaker 7: terms of autonomous. That to me is a core value.

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Speaker 2: You're not gonna do autonomous on fifty eighth Street in

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Speaker 2: New York City. I mean, it's just not gonna happen.

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Speaker 7: Look, I truly believe over the next three, four or

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Speaker 7: five years that autonomous is going to start to represent five, ten,

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Speaker 7: fifteen percent on Really.

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Speaker 2: Do I say, I don't agree, but he's wearing pink

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Speaker 2: I don't agree. Okay, let's go to Intel. We got

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Speaker 2: a major story out this morning. This has gone worldwide

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Speaker 2: instantly on Bloomberg. This is Intel down sixty six percent

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Speaker 2: from the peak, and it's just simple, brilliant reporting by

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Speaker 2: Jane Lenny Lee and Ian King. They're Gonnaly have twenty

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Speaker 2: percent of their staff the annual report of twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 2: We are a world leader, our vision, our commitment to

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Speaker 2: corporate responsibility and sustainability. What happened this thing was iconic

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Speaker 2: Dunda da du.

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Speaker 7: I mean, just think about it. Go back to where

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Speaker 7: Nvidio was twenty nineteen, twenty twenty May. If you look

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Speaker 7: from gals Singer, it's just the whole corporate structure there,

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Speaker 7: the red tape. I mean Intel, it's really a business

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Speaker 7: case study for what happens when you go as.

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Speaker 2: A CFA business case study it is.

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Speaker 7: It's what happened when you're on the treadmill.

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Speaker 6: You think no one's going.

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Speaker 7: To catch you, Okay, Apple, Apple makes their own chips

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Speaker 7: because ultimately that they box out Intel.

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Speaker 2: I am a Codec brattfo from Rochester. I lived this

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Speaker 2: with Codec. The marketing guys take over, the slick guys

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Speaker 2: take over, and the company goes down the tank until

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Speaker 2: you're bringing culp from ge or Danaher to ballot out

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Speaker 2: their gross strategy. Is they got to get back to

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Speaker 2: basics in an engineer driven company. Is that a legitimate

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Speaker 2: model or is that just blah blah blah.

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Speaker 7: I think it's a model. But I think those days

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Speaker 7: have past. I think, I mean, I know that they're

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Speaker 7: doing this huge cut that was reported you know Bloomberg,

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Speaker 7: but I think the reality is that this is going

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Speaker 7: to have to be a breakup. They're going to have

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Speaker 7: to restructure the company. You're gonna have to ultimately sunset

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Speaker 7: different products, focus on some of the growth areas because

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Speaker 7: the reality is for Intel it look, you know about

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Speaker 7: dark days. I mean, if you look up disaster in

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Speaker 7: the dictionary, you'd see Intel's.

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Speaker 2: Okay, my book of the Summer. I think maybe it's

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Speaker 2: book of the Year. I can't remember. It was chip war.

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Speaker 2: Is Intel competing against Taiwan's cell conductor? Are they competing

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Speaker 2: against some amorphous Chinese blob? We don't know who beat them?

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Speaker 2: Who defeated Intel?

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Speaker 7: I mean AMD in video in video TSMC. I mean

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Speaker 7: when you think about Intel had the opportunity and just

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Speaker 7: go back to AI, the opportunity to go after AI,

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Speaker 7: go back to next generationships. And what they essentially did

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Speaker 7: was look, it's in different like they're like a typewriter

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Speaker 7: company mid nineties being like this internet window. This is

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Speaker 7: ridiculous that people and what happens to years later that

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Speaker 7: comings bankrupt.

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Speaker 2: So I got yelled at it for that, look and

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Speaker 2: dog piles for real.

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Speaker 7: But but that but that's really that's the sad thing

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Speaker 7: that's happened Intel. And look, yeah, obviously have a new CEO.

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Speaker 7: But this is a very you know, it's really the

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Speaker 7: collapse of a of a U S iicon.

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Speaker 2: Ask a question, Mike Robinson. Cones are hurting, My eyes

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Speaker 2: are hurting folks.

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Speaker 5: Hey, just a red headline crossing the tape there, Tom,

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Speaker 5: I want to get that out. Boeing first quarter negative

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Speaker 5: just a free cash flow two point two nine billion

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Speaker 5: and the estimate was three point four billion. So better

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Speaker 5: on the free cash lit story for our friends at

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Speaker 5: Boweing and stock us up about five percent here free

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Speaker 5: market to.

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Speaker 7: Iron and talking Boeing and I and but Boeing and

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Speaker 7: Intel in the same.

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Speaker 6: Sense exactly exactly.

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Speaker 5: We got Apple, We've got Amazon, we got Microsoft out

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Speaker 5: with erning nels a week.

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Speaker 3: What are you looking for? Is it driven by tariffs?

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Speaker 6: Is an AI?

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Speaker 5: What's the the what's driving tech these days?

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Speaker 7: Look, the reality is that I expect basically new guide

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Speaker 7: into some crazy.

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Speaker 6: Cowy odd guy.

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Speaker 7: But when you look at a Apple, it comes down

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Speaker 7: like if these tariffs get them de escalation, the story

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Speaker 7: massively changes, as we've talked about, because then iPhone seventeen

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Speaker 7: comes out the AI store. You think about from a

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Speaker 7: hyperscale perspective in terms of capacs. Everyone's waiting, but this

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Speaker 7: book today, it's a pivotal moment, whether the walls are

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Speaker 7: caving in or whatever. And for attack a huge bullshit.

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Speaker 2: I got forty two seconds. You've been on the floor

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Speaker 2: in China where they make apple stuff. Can Americans do that?

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Speaker 2: We got funny videos, snarky videos out on Twitter of

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Speaker 2: people Americans sitting there making iPhones and people are laughing.

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Speaker 2: This is not funny. You're an expert at this. Can

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Speaker 2: you transfer that manufacturing discipline to Illinois?

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Speaker 7: I've said from the beginning it's impossible, because of the

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Speaker 7: nature of the IP in the supply chain, the nature

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Speaker 7: of the web force there when you're in Taiwan, when

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Speaker 7: you're China. And that's why I've said from the beginning.

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Speaker 7: We've told me on the show last three weeks, fairy

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Speaker 7: tale that that's going to happen again.

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Speaker 6: If you want a.

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Speaker 7: Thirty five hundred dollar iPhone, let's build them in the

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Speaker 7: Jersey of Manhattan. But the reality is, we see no

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Speaker 7: way that that happens. I'm not saying onshoin King happen,

440
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 7: but that is a fairy tale. And that's why the

441
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 7: market has just reacted.

442
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 6: The way it has.

443
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, after thought, just woke up and she emailed and

444
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 2: she said, can you ask mister Ives if you can

445
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,439
Speaker 2: get us Taylor. She thinks I'd look good.

446
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 7: In a I've told you pinks your color. But and

447
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 7: I'm glad there.

448
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 2: Is a New York Taylor.

449
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 7: This is actually Taiwan. But the point is like what,

450
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 7: but I'm glad. Keenes finally on the train did a

451
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 7: clear customs.

452
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, particularly the comments there on Intel.

453
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

454
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

455
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

456
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

457
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 1: Just Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

458
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 2: We're pointing direct now with one of our favorite people,

459
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 2: Christopher Criscenti is with the MAI Capital Management. Someone that's

460
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 2: looking I would say, all in all for the growthiness

461
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: in value and his world has turned upside down. What's

462
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: the value of cash now? You say in your research

463
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 2: note you were trained on this to go from equities. Oh,

464
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 2: I think I'll buy bonds, but it's priced down, yield up,

465
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: so where do you.

466
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 8: Hide, tom That's a great question for this particular market,

467
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 8: that there really has been no place to hide. We

468
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 8: were glad to have the cash that we had. The

469
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,120
Speaker 8: interesting thing about that this, though, is with the market

470
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 8: down fifteen percent, we're actually not buying the dips. You know,

471
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 8: we love value opportunities, and typically this would be one.

472
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 8: We just can't do the math because we just can't

473
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 8: build models because the future is so uncertain. If you're

474
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 8: Mary Bara, are you going to build a fact, You're

475
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 8: gonna wait. Are're gonna hire people?

476
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 7: You're gonna wait.

477
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 8: And so even if the tariffs went away tomorrow, I

478
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 8: think there's been enough of this paralysis in the system

479
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 8: that I'm relatively confident will be in a recession by

480
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 8: the end of the year.

481
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 5: So, I mean a lot of folks are suggesting kind

482
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 5: of where you are that even if they pull back

483
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 5: tariffs to some degree, which it appears to the rhetoric

484
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 5: is moving that way at least today. I guess so

485
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 5: at this hour that some fundamental damage has been done,

486
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 5: whether it's supply chains, confidence in US economy, confidence on

487
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 5: a part of the consumer executives.

488
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 8: Well, you know, we've taken eighty years to build a

489
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 8: system which were we screwed a little bit? Yeah, we were,

490
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 8: but did we benefit from it? Look Paul, thirty five

491
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 8: years ago, twelve of the top twenty five companies in

492
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 8: the world were American. Now twenty two of them are.

493
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,199
Speaker 8: It's hard to argue that this terribly skewed against us.

494
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 8: So when you monkey with that, it causes uncertainty. But

495
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 8: uncertainty is a nice vague war. What you're gonna see

496
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 8: you within the next two months is a pause in

497
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 8: corporate earnings growth. And that's what's really going to hurt

498
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 8: the market because it's time is you know, Ben Graham said,

499
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 8: like in the short term, it's a voting booth, but

500
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,719
Speaker 8: in a long term, the market is a weighing machine,

501
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 8: and what it weighs is corporate earnings, and corporate earnings

502
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 8: are going to start to face that the estimates have

503
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 8: already come down a bunch.

504
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 3: And I think that's just the beginning.

505
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 2: You come into this with a whole twisted resume of

506
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 2: an actual legit, massive corporate law career, and one day

507
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 2: you decided that you like the four accounting statements better

508
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,439
Speaker 2: and you need to see it and all that, But

509
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 2: the heart of the matter is Cris CASANTI, should we

510
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 2: change our retirement plans, our allocation, or even our hopes

511
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 2: of a time worn.

512
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 3: Not not at all time.

513
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 6: Not at all times.

514
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 8: And as any good financial advisor will tell you, you prepare

515
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 8: for this moment years before. You have a diversified portfolio.

516
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 8: And by the way, if I'm right and there is

517
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 8: a recession, generally the market falls twenty five to thirty

518
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 8: five percent in those case. It's very broad range, but

519
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 8: just generally. And we're more than halfway there already. So now,

520
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 8: pretty soon, if this gets worse, as I suspect it will,

521
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 8: we'll start looking for the opportunities and then as things

522
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 8: get more certain, we'll be able to do the math.

523
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 8: I think the math will be worse than we thought

524
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 8: it was going to be, but then we'll be able

525
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,919
Speaker 8: to step in. So you know, the cycle completes itself again.

526
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 2: You know, Chris, I look at this in value in growthiness?

527
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 2: Is the mag seven growthness broken?

528
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 8: I don't think so, Tom, I mean, the mag seven

529
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 8: isn't monolithic. I would I thought the Tesla numbers were

530
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 8: terrible yesterday, so that may be broken. We'll see.

531
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:37,719
Speaker 6: They need to do some new models.

532
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,919
Speaker 8: But the Amazon model's not broken, the Apple models not broken.

533
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 8: They clearly have head winds, but the storm will pass

534
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 8: one way or another. These are very dynamic companies that

535
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 8: can adapt to this stuff. It's just you know, we

536
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 8: got to redo the math, and the math isn't going

537
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 8: to look as good as we thought it would two

538
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 8: months ago.

539
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 5: So, I mean, it's it seems like this market wants

540
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 5: to move higher. I mean, lack of tweets or anything

541
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 5: positive on the Twitter verse seems to move this market

542
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 5: materially higher.

543
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 8: And Paul, that's not a surprise. I mean, it was

544
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 8: so over sold, and I would expect over the next

545
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 8: couple of weeks we may get a trade dealer two

546
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 8: and then that will be a catalyst for movement higher.

547
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 8: But I again, in the long term, it's a weighing machine.

548
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:18,880
Speaker 8: What's going to happen to earning That's what we can't

549
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 8: take our eye off the ball.

550
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, we still have eight or nine percent earnings growth

551
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 5: this year, maybe eleven or twelve percent earnings growth next year.

552
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 5: You think there's downside to those numbers?

553
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 8: Oh yeah, because a month ago you would have said

554
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 8: we've got thirteen percent earnings growth. Because you're now it's

555
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 8: down to eight, and I will just about guarantee you

556
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 8: if we have this conversation in June, it'll be considerably

557
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 8: lower than that.

558
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 2: We'll see. How will corporations a depth you.

559
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 6: Know, Tom the way they usually do.

560
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 8: They'll lay people off, they'll postpone capital expenditures.

561
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 6: Bring good forward.

562
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 2: An along's got us with a five percent unemployment rate

563
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 2: out there somewhere. I haven't hit anybody model six percent yet,

564
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 2: but you get claims what Paul three hundred thousand, Yeah,

565
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 2: to eighty thousand whatever. You get the unemployment rate to go,

566
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 2: the Fed does what the what mister Trump wants them

567
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 2: to do. They begin a rate cutting cycle. The system

568
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: heals or is it just broken?

569
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 8: Well's how the problem is that tariff news has kind

570
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 8: of pulled forward. Well, first we have some strong sales

571
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 8: up front, but we haven't gotten to the earnings downturn yet,

572
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 8: so we can't fast forward this recession. It's going to happen.

573
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 8: The market will drop what it's going to drop. I mean,

574
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 8: it's going to happen more probably than not. So yeah,

575
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 8: there's ways to come out of it. But I suspect

576
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 8: equity prices will be lower, when when those ways you

577
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 8: have to be employed.

578
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 2: Chris CONSENTI thank you for them, coup.

579
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

580
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

581
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

582
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

583
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

584
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 2: NCK morroy Is is truly we got a huge response

585
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 2: when he's on. He's with a Lobo Institute.

586
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 6: He has public.

587
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 2: Service to the nation, an extended career with the United

588
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 2: States Marines. You know, he's a former coach at USA Boxing.

589
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:12,360
Speaker 6: Really he does it all.

590
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 2: Joining us now from Montana. Mcnallwy mcka. I want to

591
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 2: pause for a moment here. You're in Montana, and you know,

592
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 2: the East Coast view of the military maybe goes distant

593
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 2: to Virginia Beach to talk about the Navy. Maybe they

594
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: get up to Army Navy at Philadelphia. The hallmark of

595
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 2: my ute was a Strategic Air Command at the three

596
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 2: hundred thirty Forest Wing in the middle of nowhere in Montana.

597
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 2: That's the backbone, not a bunch of offices at the

598
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 2: Pentagon and your Defense department now is under not complete collapse,

599
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 2: but huge controversy with the Secretary of Defense.

600
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 6: How does that affect the Air.

601
00:28:55,040 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 2: Force in Montana or the Navy in San Diego with.

602
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 9: You guys, I mean, ultimately, the military is going to

603
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 9: carry on regardless of the issues with this civilian leadership

604
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 9: and the Pentagon. That said, it really does reflect on

605
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 9: who is in charge when you have this level of

606
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 9: resignations and terminations. I haven't seen it. I don't think

607
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 9: anybody has seen it in this state, and that does

608
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 9: I think have when it comes to the line, you know, soldier,

609
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 9: sail or airman, marine, confidence in the leadership to see

610
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 9: that is not a good thing. But I do think

611
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 9: we are still in good hands. The chain of command

612
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 9: is strong, That's why they have it that way in

613
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 9: the military, and we can certainly amend all the important

614
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 9: positions that.

615
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 2: We have mcmulroy. Then if it hasn't filtered down to

616
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 2: the troops, are we ready to defend the nation? Now?

617
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 2: I mean, is this a properly budgeted defense department, a

618
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 2: budgeted Pentagon?

619
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 9: So I do think it is. There us talk about

620
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 9: increasing the actual overall expense of the Defense Department, probably

621
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 9: to try to make these giant leaps and technology that

622
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 9: we really need to to stay far above what we

623
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 9: call it the offset of our adversaries, and I think

624
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 9: the military is adjusting to that. So I don't want

625
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 9: to give people the false, in my opinion, the false

626
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 9: impression that somehow the military itself is in disarray. I

627
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 9: do think it's important to have a solid chain of

628
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 9: command it and the Secretary of Defense, of course, is

629
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 9: in that chain of command. So there needs to be

630
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 9: a lot of changes at the top, certainly the way

631
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 9: we handle classified information. But I think it's important for

632
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 9: Americans to understand that the military is fully capable of

633
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 9: defending the United States here and abroad, even with this

634
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 9: level of what's being described as chaos.

635
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 5: So Mick, I mean, I guess the latest news for

636
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 5: Defense Secretary of Pete Hegseth has been the disclosure that

637
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 5: he has I guess, shared sensitive details about impending US

638
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 5: attacks on houthy militants on an unsecured commercial chat platform.

639
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 7: Is that a big deal?

640
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 5: Is this warranted this concern?

641
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 9: It is a big deal. The reason why it's called

642
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 9: unauthorized is because you're not allowed legally to share classified information,

643
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 9: and if the reports are correct, these are specific attack plans, time, place,

644
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 9: and manner of how. In this case, the US Navy

645
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 9: was going to carry out aerial strikes against the Houthies.

646
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 9: So this is very sensitive information. I think anybody can

647
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 9: understand that if this were somehow to get to our

648
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,959
Speaker 9: adversaries like Russia, they could give it to Iran, they

649
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 9: could give it to the Houthis, and then they would

650
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 9: know essentially how to defend themselves against incoming attacks. So

651
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 9: it's super sensitive. In addition to that, using the wrong platform,

652
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 9: at least reportedly, people that were in this dat did

653
00:31:54,760 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 9: not have all of the necessary security requirements and a

654
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 9: need to know. Essentially that you could just look at

655
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 9: who's listed. They had no reason to know this, So

656
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 9: this would be something that if you were a private,

657
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 9: seaman and airman, you would likely be removed immediately, an

658
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 9: investigation investigated under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

659
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 2: Mister mulroy's with a Lobo Institute and we thank him

660
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 2: for being with us.

661
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

662
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

663
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

664
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:42,479
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

665
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 2: We're going to walk forward, stagger forward to the newspapers

666
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 2: would do this with Lisa, Alisa, what do you have?

667
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 10: Okay, so we all know professional baseball players, right, it's

668
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 10: all about the swagger, the style. But the Wall Street

669
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:57,719
Speaker 10: Journal says it's actually trickling down to Little league. So parents,

670
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 10: moms and dads are spending bidden bucks talking about sliding mits.

671
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 10: You know the professional pros wear. Yeah, I don't know

672
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 10: about the sliding mets, but they start around fifty bucks.

673
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 10: But now parents are buying them for the cake.

674
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 2: Mom.

675
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 3: Yes, you know this stuff.

676
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 10: We don't do the sliding mits. We do like the

677
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 10: elbow guards. We'll do those like that kind of thing.

678
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 10: But what they're also doing is these crazy colored batting

679
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 10: gloves hello Bruce Bolt, arm sleeves that we do, the

680
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 10: crazy colors, expensive sunglasses, hello Oakley. Yes, fancy helmets too,

681
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 10: on showers.

682
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 2: We come like ice hockey where you have to sell

683
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 2: the third child, Dude, you do, and.

684
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 10: It's it's all for these fancy things.

685
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 5: You can go with regular Well, well they have to

686
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,479
Speaker 5: upset watch SEC softball sometimes because I love the pictures.

687
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 3: I can't believe how Yes, but they all were.

688
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 5: Amazing makeup and the hair, and it's about the hair,

689
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 5: the hair, and it's unbelievable.

690
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 10: I mean, but that's what it's about.

691
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: The look.

692
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, two, So that's what it is.

693
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,719
Speaker 10: Custom fielding gloves. I mean, I know my daughter has

694
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 10: a pink and white one with the putter. You can

695
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 10: flag on it like it's itit's crazy, but you do.

696
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: I think she's taken over the Is there something else

697
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 2: you'd like to mention about the third summer camp you're

698
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 2: going to?

699
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 10: You can't flight plates and.

700
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 6: Thank you?

701
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 7: Okay, but that's what it is.

702
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 10: They're actually they're blaming the pros because they're saying the

703
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 10: MLB switch their will so now they're allowed to wear

704
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 10: the colorful things.

705
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 2: It's a jackocracy. It's the mother's fault.

706
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 7: It's the mom's fault.

707
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 2: It's the mom's fault. Next.

708
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 10: Okay, Oh, here you go, Tom, this one's for you.

709
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 10: Some Gen z ers and millennials are still opting to

710
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 10: live with mom and dad, so a lot of more

711
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 10: the kids are are living with the parents for longer,

712
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 10: so gen Z, you know, thirteen to twenty eight, so

713
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 10: twenty eight, and then you have millennials twenty eight to

714
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 10: forty three. So just to give you an idea of

715
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 10: who we're talking about, they're starting to live with mom

716
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 10: and dad longer. It's a Pew research, you know, center analysis,

717
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 10: and they say the biggest place places where this is

718
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 10: happening Texas, Florida, California, where jobs are kind of hard

719
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 10: wages or maybe not enough in some areas, and there's

720
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 10: a gender gap too. So it turns out that the

721
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 10: boat well men are living with mom and dad longer

722
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 10: twenty percent a paired to compare with fifteen percent for

723
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 10: the females who go off on their own.

724
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 2: Epidemic in Europe, it's completely preponderant in Europe. Yeah, like

725
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 2: I would say it's a majority. I don't get it.

726
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 2: I have varies. I got to be careful what they

727
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 2: say here on radio.

728
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 10: But you know, I just it's there, right, it is

729
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 10: it is, And they say it is getting better, like

730
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 10: it's dropped in recent years, but it's still above like

731
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 10: the historic clothes.

732
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: That way, we go to Paul Sweeney, who is the

733
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 2: only person I know in the surveillance universe whose children

734
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: are all employed.

735
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, what's the bixis want? I went from six bedrooms

736
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 6: to two.

737
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 10: Making sure they're not coming exactly right.

738
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 6: The governor of New Jersey, you know, so you can

739
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 6: exactly right.

740
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 10: So one more quickly quickly, Yes, if you've been to

741
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 10: the airport lately, the latest thing now are rooftop decks.

742
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 10: This is happening at a lot. Yeah, they're doing these

743
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 10: outdoor spaces. So a lot of airports are stepping up

744
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:13,359
Speaker 10: their game.

745
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 6: Loa Guardia's Terminal B.

746
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 10: They're gonna have that new Capital one landing lounge is

747
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 10: gonna have the outdoor terrace. But we're talking about not

748
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 10: even the lounges, but regular airport like four green terraces

749
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 10: at Pittsburgh International Airport are coming.

750
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 5: Well to get one at the outdoors California and my

751
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 5: kids when they're little, we can get like lunch and

752
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 5: watch the planes. But that's Parmeult, California.

753
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 3: It's not LaGuardia.

754
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 2: Correct.

755
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 10: They do have the heaters and everything kind of set

756
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:39,919
Speaker 10: up for that, but it's just like the new thing,

757
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 10: like they're upping their game.

758
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,959
Speaker 2: Lisa, thank you so much, Lisa Matteo. There are the newspapers.

759
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

760
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

761
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on bloomberg dot com,

762
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio tune in, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

763
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

764
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg Terminal