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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Paybaq podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen. It's Tuesday, the twenty sixth of November in London.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepki and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today the dollar rallies and

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Speaker 2: stocks droppers. US President elect Trump vows to hit China,

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Speaker 2: Mexico and Canada with extra tariffs.

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Speaker 1: The UK Chancellor vows not to hike business taxes again,

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Speaker 1: as the Prime Minister outlines plans to reduce welfare spending.

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Speaker 2: Plus a one hundred billion euro test. Ireland's political parties

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Speaker 2: are making big promises of how to spend their tax

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Speaker 2: bonanza ahead of Friday's election.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump has vowed to implement additional trade tariffs on

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Speaker 2: China as well as Canada and Mexico. Posting on his

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Speaker 2: Truth social network, the US President elect said he would

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Speaker 2: impose additional ten percent on goods from China and twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent on all products from Mexico and Canada. Jennifer Hellman,

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Speaker 2: as the former General Counselor at the Office of the

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Speaker 2: US Trade representative.

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Speaker 3: I think again, you can expect this to be very,

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Speaker 3: very transactional, and I think that's part of the reason

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Speaker 3: for announcing it well before he's even in office. I mean,

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Speaker 3: he is clearly looking for and I would say, you know,

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Speaker 3: Canada and Mexico to come to him with offers of

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Speaker 3: things that they can do well.

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Speaker 2: Jennifer Hellman believes it's a negotiating tactic. Trump himself cast

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Speaker 2: the new levies as necessary to clamp down on migrants

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Speaker 2: and illegal drugs coming across borders. Bloomberg understands that shortly

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Speaker 2: after Trump's post, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke by

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Speaker 2: phone with the President elect discussing border security in trade.

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Speaker 1: The dollar has rallied and Asian shares dropped as the

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Speaker 1: President elect's comments rat shit up concerns about his America

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Speaker 1: First policies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index surged as much

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Speaker 1: as zero point seven percent before pairing ains on the news,

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Speaker 1: which came just days after Trump nominated Wall Street stalwarts

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Speaker 1: Scott Besson as US Treasury Secretary. It was a move

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Speaker 1: that markets had seen as a sign the incoming administration

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Speaker 1: may take a more measured approach to tariffs. Speaking to

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg before Trump's comments on trade, the Minneapolis Fed President

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Speaker 1: Nil Kashkari gave his view on potential China tariffs.

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Speaker 4: There's obviously the risks of potential tariffs back and forth

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Speaker 4: between the US and China, which are notable. The other

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Speaker 4: big concern is just the domestic Chinese economy and the

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Speaker 4: slumber that it appears to be in from our analysis,

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Speaker 4: the heavyweight of the housing sector that is and has

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Speaker 4: been a driver of Chinese growth for so many years,

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Speaker 4: is now appears to be weighing down the Chinese economy.

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Speaker 1: Minneapolis Fed chief Nil Kashkari also told Bloomberg that he

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Speaker 1: believes it's still appropriate to consider another interest rate cut

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Speaker 1: at the central banks December meet. Kashkari says the US

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Speaker 1: economy's resilience in the face of high interest rates suggests

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Speaker 1: that the neutral rate, where policy neither ways on nor

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Speaker 1: stimulates economic growth, may be higher.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 2: The UK government is setting out its plan to reduce

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Speaker 2: its one hundred and thirty seven billion pounds benefits bill

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Speaker 2: by getting more people into work. Kir Starmer's government will

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Speaker 2: publish a Get Britain Working white paper today, but the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister risks further backlash from Labour's controversial first budget

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Speaker 2: as companies warrant of tax induced job cuts. Speaking of

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Speaker 2: the Confederation of British Industry's annual conference yesterday, the Chancellor

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Speaker 2: Rachel Reeves defended her spending choices.

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Speaker 6: I've had lots of feedback on the budget, but what

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Speaker 6: I haven't heard is any credible alternatives to what I

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Speaker 6: did to put our public finances on a firm footing.

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Speaker 6: What I am really clear about, and I've said it

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Speaker 6: already a couple of times today, the public services now

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Speaker 6: need to live within the envelope that we've said. We

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Speaker 6: will not be coming back to top up those budgets.

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Speaker 6: We have set the envelope for public spending.

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Speaker 2: Rachel Reeves, speaking there if the government's plans are part

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Speaker 2: of Labor's promise first announced in July to increase the

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Speaker 2: employment rate to eighty percent from currently just shy of

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Speaker 2: seventy five percent, welfare cords won't be announced until the spring.

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Speaker 1: Saying with the UK Where's also say the government has

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Speaker 1: supplied Ukraine with dozens more storm Shadow missiles. Bloomberg understands

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Speaker 1: the weapons are the first given under Prime Minister kirs Starmer,

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Speaker 1: who has pledged continued support for the country. The deliveries

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Speaker 1: were not publicly announced and were ordered after Kiev ran

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Speaker 1: low on the long range missiles. Speaking before a G

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Speaker 1: seven meeting in Italy, the Foreign Secretary David Lammie said,

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Speaker 1: continued international support for Ukraine is crucial.

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Speaker 7: It's hugely important that all colleagues across the G seven

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Speaker 7: continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it lasts,

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Speaker 7: and we are confident that Ukraine can have the funds

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Speaker 7: and the military equipment and kit to get through twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty five.

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Speaker 1: David Lammie speaking there. The decisions by the US and

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Speaker 1: UK to allow their weapons to be used for strikes

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Speaker 1: inside Russia for the first time came in response to

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Speaker 1: Kremlin deploying North the Korean troops to fight against Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: That's according to officials from both governments.

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Speaker 2: The European Unions proposing to sanctioned Chinese firms that allegedly

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Speaker 2: helped Russian companies develop attack drones used against Ukraine. European

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Speaker 2: commissioners also considering placing additional restrictions on Russian oil tankers

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Speaker 2: to curb Moscow's ability to circumvent existing measures. The proposed

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Speaker 2: sanctions would target over fifty individuals and nearly thirty entities,

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Speaker 2: including Russian military manufacturers, Chinese firms, and North Korean defense officials.

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Speaker 1: Top Israeli officials are meeting to approve a ceasefire deal

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Speaker 1: with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Earlier, the Israeli ambassador to wash

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Speaker 1: Rington said that an agreement to end the war was

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Speaker 1: getting closer, though some issues still remained. A deal would

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Speaker 1: mean an enter over a year of hostilities between Hezbola

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Speaker 1: and Israel. Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Dannel,

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Speaker 1: says that our reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

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Speaker 8: We are moving forward on this front that they said

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Speaker 8: many times. You know, our goal was very clear, which

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Speaker 8: is to push his vala no of the Litani River.

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Speaker 8: We haven't finalized it, but we are moving forward. I

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Speaker 8: assume that the cabinet will meet today or tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: To discuss it, Israel's UN ambassador Danny dan On, speaking there.

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Speaker 1: The country Security Cabinet is expected to vote on an

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Speaker 1: agreement today and passage is considered likely, according to an official.

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Speaker 2: Those are your top stories on the markets. The S

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Speaker 2: and P five hundred closed yesterday in the green up

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Speaker 2: three tenths of one percent, Tenure yields closed down thirteen

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Speaker 2: basis points, and gold fell by three point four percent

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Speaker 2: as Donald trump Treasury secretary pick was cheered by marketings

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Speaker 2: and concerns over the deficit. We did see the euroclimb

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Speaker 2: above one oh five briefly as it strengthened against the dollar,

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Speaker 2: But we have seen some moves after the announcement by

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump of his promise to impose fresh tariffs of

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Speaker 2: the dollar strengthening again on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index

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Speaker 2: up a quarter of one percent today, the Mexican peso

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Speaker 2: one point three percent weaker, the Canadian dollar one percent weaker,

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Speaker 2: and the Chinese yuan has dipped as well a quarter

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Speaker 2: of one percent.

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Speaker 1: Now in a moment, we'll get more on Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: tariff threat, plus how Ireland's political parties want to spend

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Speaker 1: their budget surplus if they win Friday's general election. But first,

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Speaker 1: another story that has caught our eye that we've been

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Speaker 1: reading this morning.

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Speaker 2: This is how a hedge fund is seeking out the

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Speaker 2: next generation of finance geniuses. World Quant has been holding

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Speaker 2: its International Quant Championship, where competitors crunch numbers come up

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Speaker 2: with their own alphas, which is the jargon for mathematical

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Speaker 2: models that can predict asset performance. So they're pitched again

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Speaker 2: each other to see who comes up with the best

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Speaker 2: hypothetical returns, as an event described by our colleagues Justina

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Speaker 2: Lee and David Ramley as part rave Park Shark Tank.

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Speaker 1: Episode I love it.

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Speaker 7: That's great.

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Speaker 2: It's quite fun on those pictures from it as well,

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Speaker 2: about how this company, or this hedge fund rather has

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Speaker 2: been out there essentially trying to crowdsource talent to find

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Speaker 2: the next but you know, algorithmic ways to make money.

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Speaker 1: It's absolutely incredible. This is at Niche. It's thousands and

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Speaker 1: thousands of people, and there were loads of competitors from

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Speaker 1: universities but also sort of any walk of life, really,

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Speaker 1: lots from India, lots from Asia. And yes, things are

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Speaker 1: also getting faster, the returns that you make, that edge

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Speaker 1: that you might discover in the markets, apparently, according to

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Speaker 1: Justin and Lee who's been writing about it, is getting quicker.

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Speaker 1: So yes, these hedge funds sort of looking for the

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Speaker 1: finance geniuses of the future.

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Speaker 2: Plenty to read more on this Bloomberg dot Com or

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Speaker 2: of course on the terminal but that's bringing more on

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's pledge now to levy more tariffs and importance

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Speaker 2: from Canada, Mexico and China are breaking. He's managing editor,

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Speaker 2: Derek Wellbank is with us for more. Derek Market seemed

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Speaker 2: to be taking this threat pretty seriously. Should we be

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Speaker 2: taking Donald Trump's promise us his words?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think this is one of those

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Speaker 9: things where you know, he's not just floating something, He's

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Speaker 9: saying he's going to do something on day one. So

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Speaker 9: I do think that you take that seriously. I do

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Speaker 9: think that the market reaction makes a certain amount of sense.

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Speaker 9: That having been said, if I wanted to, you know,

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Speaker 9: note a point of calendar item, you have somewhere about

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Speaker 9: two months or so ballpark, maybe a little bit less

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Speaker 9: until Donald Trump has sworn in as US president. Justin

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Speaker 9: Trudeau was on the phone with him after the announcement.

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Speaker 9: I'm sure that they had much to talk about, and so,

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Speaker 9: you know, there certainly will be openings for diplomacy, because

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Speaker 9: after all, we're one more truth social post away from

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Speaker 9: you know, some of this going maybe a slightly different direction.

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Speaker 9: But look, Donald Trump, you know, ran for president on

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Speaker 9: this idea that tariffs were going to be a critical

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Speaker 9: foreign policy plank. You know, you knew that he that

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Speaker 9: he has had his views on immigration, particularly the northern

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Speaker 9: and southern borders of the United States, over land immigration,

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Speaker 9: and the you know, some of the things that he

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Speaker 9: feels are dangers accompanying there too. So I'm not necessarily

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Speaker 9: fully surprised that this is one of the first massive

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Speaker 9: foreign policy announcements that the president elect has made.

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Speaker 1: We also though, I mean, it's interesting that it's ten

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Speaker 1: percent tariffs on goods from China but twenty five percent

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Speaker 1: tariffs on goods from the US's near neighbors. What sort

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Speaker 1: of effect would those sorts of tariffs have on the

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Speaker 1: US but also perhaps the trading partners.

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Speaker 9: Well, there's a couple of things there, right that the

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Speaker 9: ten percent for China is an add on so in

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Speaker 9: addition to other things that are currently there. But remember

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Speaker 9: that Trump during the campaign was talking about additional you know,

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Speaker 9: a tariff level of sixty percent or so. So how

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Speaker 9: he squared all of that math is going to take

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Speaker 9: a lot more than two hundred and eighty characters to

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Speaker 9: sort of lay out and where all of this, you know,

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Speaker 9: may wind up so that people can do their own maths.

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Speaker 9: What I would say, though, is that there has been

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Speaker 9: an observed move that the that you've seen in the

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Speaker 9: in the run up to this, to this election and transition,

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Speaker 9: with a lot of Chinese investment in Mexico, this idea

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Speaker 9: that look, if Trump was going to take some tariff

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Speaker 9: action against China, that maybe Mexico might be a place

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Speaker 9: to sort of, you know, to place some of those operations,

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Speaker 9: maybe find a way to tranship in ways that would

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Speaker 9: dodge around there. This would you know, put a certain

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Speaker 9: amount of doubt into those plans if that was the

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Speaker 9: idea that people had going around them. But I do

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Speaker 9: think that broadly speaking, you know, for those of us

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Speaker 9: who covered the first Trump administration quite closely, we all

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Speaker 9: remember when Donald Trump was talking about pulling out of

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Speaker 9: now and had a full reorganization and renegotiation of the

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Speaker 9: trade deals with some of the American's closest partners on

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Speaker 9: the world stage. So it should not be a surprise.

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Speaker 9: I mean, I cannot emphasize this enough. It should not

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Speaker 9: be a surprise to people who consider themselves friends of

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Speaker 9: America or foes of America that if there is some

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Speaker 9: trade dispute with the new administration, that is coming in

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Speaker 9: in January of next year. It should not be a

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Speaker 9: surprise at all if tariffs get onto the table.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Derek welldbankcard breaking, he's managing editor, Thank you now.

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Speaker 1: Irish voters go to the polls on Friday with a

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Speaker 1: very different dilemma to many of the elections that we've

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Speaker 1: seen in Europe this year. The country has flushed with

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Speaker 1: cash from a surge in corporate taxes on mostly US firms,

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Speaker 1: leading political parties to make big promises on what they

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Speaker 1: plan to spend it on. Our Dublin Bureau chief Jennifer

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Speaker 1: Duggan joins US Now for more on this story. Jennifer,

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Speaker 1: very good to have you on the program. How much

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Speaker 1: money does the next Irish government potentially have to spend?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Ireland is in quite an unusual position in comparison

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Speaker 5: to a lot of other European countries. This year, it's

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Speaker 5: estimated that the country will have approximately twenty four billion

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Speaker 5: of a budget surplus. Fourteen billion of that comes from

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Speaker 5: the Apple tax judgment from a European court, so that's

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Speaker 5: obviously boosted and Irish finances this year. Most of those

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Speaker 5: taxes come from corporation taxes from the multinationals, particularly the

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Speaker 5: US multinationals that are based in Ireland. It's quite a

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Speaker 5: volatile source of income, but yes, it is considerable.

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Speaker 2: So what worries are there about how vulnerable this revenue

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Speaker 2: stream might be. We've just been hearing about Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: promise on trade tariffs. Is that something that Ireland's worried about?

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Speaker 2: Are they setting money aside?

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Speaker 5: Yeah? Absolutely, I think even before the US election there

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Speaker 5: are can have been concerns about this revenue stream because

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Speaker 5: it comes from you know, companies that are from outside

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Speaker 5: of Ireland, and particularly a large it's very concentrated, so

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Speaker 5: just three companies make up forty three percent of all

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Speaker 5: the corporation tax take and obviously that makes Ireland very

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Speaker 5: vulnerable to shots within those companies also geopolitical shocks, and

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Speaker 5: the government have the Minister for Finance has for a

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Speaker 5: long time call these this type of tax revenue windfall,

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Speaker 5: which means that they do understand the volatile nature offer Trump.

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Speaker 5: Trump presidency obviously certainly brings you know, a greater concern

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Speaker 5: there in terms of the stability, particularly when it comes

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Speaker 5: to tariffs and you know, any changes in the US

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Speaker 5: and corporation tax. So yes, there are definitely concerns from

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Speaker 5: a communists and politicians here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, the bed and b issues though in this election

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Speaker 1: are surely the cost of living. There's also an acute

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Speaker 1: shortage of housing. How are the parties talking about planning

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Speaker 1: to tackle those?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's an interesting campaign for sure. There's certainly a

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Speaker 5: lot of talk about different different measures. One of the

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Speaker 5: things that does get discussed is how to kind of

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Speaker 5: protect those finances. And I should also say that Ireland

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Speaker 5: has set up its its own sovereign wealth Fund with

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Speaker 5: a percentage of the earnings from corporation tax to go

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Speaker 5: in every year for the next ten years. That sovereign

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Speaker 5: Wealth Fund is estimated to grow to one hundred billion,

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Speaker 5: which would make it one of the top fifteen largest

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Speaker 5: funds in the world. So that's you know, an effort

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Speaker 5: to protect the money. But in terms of the election itself, Yeah,

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Speaker 5: certainly there's a lot of proposals. The incumbent government a

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Speaker 5: coalition of a three party coalition. They introduced a budget

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Speaker 5: in October and that was described as a giveaway budget,

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Speaker 5: so that was certainly seen as the first part of

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Speaker 5: the government party's efforts to woo voters. There was a

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Speaker 5: lot of worn off measures, child benefit payments, energy credits,

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Speaker 5: so a lot of kind of very attractive measures for voters.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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