WEBVTT - ASML Chief on China Chips, HSBC Restructuring, GM Earnings

0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:12.160
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:14.920
<v Speaker 2>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, card Playing and

0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.960
<v Speaker 2>Broun Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand

0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:22.080
<v Speaker 2>wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:25.080
<v Speaker 3>Mollie Smith sitting in for Alex Steel on Paul Sweeney.

0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:27.240
<v Speaker 3>You're live here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio or

0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:30.600
<v Speaker 3>streaming live on YouTube as well. Which seems like for

0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:33.080
<v Speaker 3>the last five, six, seven years, there's been this growing

0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:38.440
<v Speaker 3>tech cold war between China and the West, and now

0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:41.600
<v Speaker 3>we've got a story out about the chip maker. ASML

0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:45.040
<v Speaker 3>Holdings a CEO, he expects pressure to grow from the

0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:49.360
<v Speaker 3>US to further restrict sales of semiconductor technology to China.

0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:52.080
<v Speaker 3>That's the biggest market for the Dutch producer of chip

0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:54.520
<v Speaker 3>making machines. Man Deep Sing joins us, he's the our

0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:57.080
<v Speaker 3>tech dude, He's ahead of all the technology stuff at

0:00:57.080 --> 0:01:00.880
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Intelligence. Man Deep talk to us about the chip

0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:05.440
<v Speaker 3>market China as a customer, how do you think this

0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:07.760
<v Speaker 3>is going to play out? Because again it feels like

0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:10.080
<v Speaker 3>there is this tech cold war that's right there.

0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:13.360
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean when you look at a company like SML,

0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:16.680
<v Speaker 4>which almost did you know, forty five percent of their

0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:20.720
<v Speaker 4>revenue from selling to Chinese customers over the past twelve

0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:24.920
<v Speaker 4>months and they guide it to that percentage going to

0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:29.400
<v Speaker 4>about twenty percent next year. So clearly the deceleration is

0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:33.319
<v Speaker 4>huge in terms of the China exposure, and partly that

0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:35.479
<v Speaker 4>has to do with the you know, the Cold War

0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:40.440
<v Speaker 4>or the geopolitical element that you just alluded to. And look,

0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:46.760
<v Speaker 4>it's not surprising given ASML the machines they make underpin

0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:51.960
<v Speaker 4>the latest factories that are producing these chips that everyone

0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:55.280
<v Speaker 4>wants to train their AI on. So when you look

0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:59.680
<v Speaker 4>at the semiconductor chain, I mean ASML sits at pretty

0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:03.840
<v Speaker 4>much at the bottom end of what it takes to

0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:07.720
<v Speaker 4>set up a semiconductor factory. They are deemed as one

0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.400
<v Speaker 4>of the biggest beneficiaries of the Chips Act. When you

0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:13.639
<v Speaker 4>think about you know, the US government wanting to set

0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.320
<v Speaker 4>up semiconductor fabs in the US, they are one of

0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:20.160
<v Speaker 4>the prime beneficiaries. But then the offset is the China

0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:22.640
<v Speaker 4>business that is going down, and that's why you're seeing

0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:24.600
<v Speaker 4>you know, valuation compressed recently.

0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:26.680
<v Speaker 5>Can you just help catch us all up here, Mandy,

0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:29.959
<v Speaker 5>because this has been a crazy week with ASML, going

0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:32.760
<v Speaker 5>back to the earnings announcement last week when they cut

0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:35.400
<v Speaker 5>their outlook for next year. You know, the orders were

0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:39.400
<v Speaker 5>very disappointing. This triggered this whole route in the semiconductor industry.

0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:41.160
<v Speaker 5>Can you just catch us all up here on like

0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:42.880
<v Speaker 5>what the past week has been like?

0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:46.480
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, in fact, it's been a roller coaster because you

0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:50.040
<v Speaker 4>had the ASML disappointment and then TSMC comes out the

0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:52.840
<v Speaker 4>next day and they say AI revenue will be almost

0:02:52.919 --> 0:02:56.040
<v Speaker 4>mid teens, which was negligible over the past you know,

0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:59.800
<v Speaker 4>three quarters. So clearly there's been a big kind of

0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:04.480
<v Speaker 4>sentiment when it comes to TSMC being very bullish on

0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:09.160
<v Speaker 4>AI versus ASML downplaying you know, the next twelve months.

0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:13.000
<v Speaker 4>And that's partly to do with where TSMC sits, which

0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:16.840
<v Speaker 4>is they are getting all these orders from Nvidia as

0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:19.680
<v Speaker 4>well as other hyperscalers who want to get their chips

0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:25.400
<v Speaker 4>manufactured at TSMC, whereas ASML has got two companies that

0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:29.600
<v Speaker 4>are pulling back on their orders, Intel and Samsung, and

0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:32.959
<v Speaker 4>TSMC is the only one that's buying from ASML right now.

0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:36.760
<v Speaker 4>So TSMC has a lot of bargaining power because they

0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.880
<v Speaker 4>are the only ones who can raise their capex. Intel

0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:45.040
<v Speaker 4>is really struggling. Samsung, we have heard, is also struggling now.

0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:48.720
<v Speaker 4>So both those companies, the next two big buyers of ASML,

0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.320
<v Speaker 4>are looking to pair back their spend and that's why

0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:53.680
<v Speaker 4>I think TSMC is in a great spot both from

0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:57.360
<v Speaker 4>the customer side as well as having the supplier bargaining power.

0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:01.000
<v Speaker 3>All Right, ASML is a Dutch company. If the US

0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:02.520
<v Speaker 3>tells me to do something, why don't I just tell

0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:03.520
<v Speaker 3>them to go take a hike?

0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:08.280
<v Speaker 4>Well, I mean it goes back to how these kind

0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:11.680
<v Speaker 4>of countries work as a block. Look, I think when

0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:17.120
<v Speaker 4>the US government kind of asks a country to enforce

0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.320
<v Speaker 4>their restrictions, then most of the times they end up

0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:24.560
<v Speaker 4>doing that because of you know, the trading aspect of

0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:28.040
<v Speaker 4>how these companies just operate as a block. And in

0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:32.039
<v Speaker 4>this case, I think the restrictions are very targeted towards

0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:38.760
<v Speaker 4>the advanced machines that are used for latest leading node manufacturing.

0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:44.920
<v Speaker 4>So I think again it comes down to how the

0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:49.840
<v Speaker 4>politics of it is really focused on, and it's hard

0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:52.159
<v Speaker 4>for the companies to control that, right, So if the

0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:55.919
<v Speaker 4>governments agree on something they have to comply with the restrictions.

0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:57.719
<v Speaker 6>So we have the ASML CEO.

0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:01.000
<v Speaker 5>He's been speaking at the Bloomberg Tech Summit recently, and

0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:03.960
<v Speaker 5>he said last week that he sees the chip market's

0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:07.159
<v Speaker 5>long way to recovery extending well into next year. I

0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:09.640
<v Speaker 5>think that's a fair timeline given all of what's going

0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:10.880
<v Speaker 5>on in the industry right now.

0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:14.279
<v Speaker 4>I mean there are two pockets here. One is the

0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:18.039
<v Speaker 4>AI pocket, which is really firing on all cylinders. I mean,

0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:21.720
<v Speaker 4>companies have insatiable demand and we've seen that with TSMC

0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:28.040
<v Speaker 4>and Nvidia really kind of talking about it endlessly. On

0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:33.120
<v Speaker 4>the other side, the traditional markets like smartphones, PCs, autos,

0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.560
<v Speaker 4>they're still slow. I mean, there has been a rebound,

0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:40.480
<v Speaker 4>but it's been very kind of flatish for a few quarters.

0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.800
<v Speaker 4>And even the prognosis is not like you're going to

0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:47.680
<v Speaker 4>see massive acceleration in top round growth. So that's where

0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:51.120
<v Speaker 4>I think companies that are exposed to AI are growing

0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:54.200
<v Speaker 4>much faster than the companies that are exposed to these

0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:55.400
<v Speaker 4>traditional land markets.

0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.800
<v Speaker 5>And is that just because the market for smartphones is

0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:01.640
<v Speaker 5>pretty saturated at this point? Like don't we all pretty

0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:04.440
<v Speaker 5>much a lot? I mean, it seems pretty ubiquitous now,

0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:06.599
<v Speaker 5>I mean, how much more are there really like these

0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:08.520
<v Speaker 5>big markets that are waiting to be tapped into.

0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.880
<v Speaker 4>I mean that's where AI will play a role in

0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:15.919
<v Speaker 4>terms of driving upgrade for your smartphone. It's just right now,

0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:20.120
<v Speaker 4>AI is being consumed and deployed almost solely on cloud.

0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.320
<v Speaker 4>That's where the cloud vendors are seeing it in their results.

0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:28.640
<v Speaker 4>But for every edge device, whether it's PC, smartphone, nobody

0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:32.680
<v Speaker 4>has talked about using AI on the device. I mean,

0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:34.800
<v Speaker 4>you can do it through your app that is running

0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.280
<v Speaker 4>on the cloud, but you don't need to upgrade your

0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:39.400
<v Speaker 4>smartphone for that, And that's the big driver.

0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:42.040
<v Speaker 3>I just upgraded to the iPhone sixteen pro. Somebody told

0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:46.840
<v Speaker 3>me that you're partner what's his name, anurag upgrade. Look

0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:48.719
<v Speaker 3>you show me a bill of goods here trying to

0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:51.360
<v Speaker 3>pad the Apple numbers it is.

0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:53.920
<v Speaker 4>And look it's it still has a great camera, So

0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:55.320
<v Speaker 4>I think that upgrade.

0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:57.440
<v Speaker 3>I was in Ireland. I was in Ireland for like

0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:00.240
<v Speaker 3>eight days. I took three pictures, two of like sheep

0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:00.880
<v Speaker 3>and one of the pig.

0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:04.000
<v Speaker 4>You're under your lif outset fall.

0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:06.640
<v Speaker 2>What's the fascination.

0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:06.839
<v Speaker 7>With the sheep ball?

0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:10.440
<v Speaker 3>There's more sheep than people there, and they're everywhere.

0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:12.400
<v Speaker 7>I mean, it's unbelievable. No wonder my.

0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:15.400
<v Speaker 3>People left when the first potato a bit All right,

0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:16.640
<v Speaker 3>men Deep saying thank you so much.

0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:17.280
<v Speaker 7>We appreciated.

0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:20.320
<v Speaker 3>Men Deep sing senior tech industry analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence,

0:07:20.600 --> 0:07:22.400
<v Speaker 3>trying to figure out what's going on in the chip

0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:25.080
<v Speaker 3>business again ASML, they're cautious.

0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:26.920
<v Speaker 7>Taiwan Simmy says, no, no, no, no, no.

0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:28.000
<v Speaker 3>Business is still good.

0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.680
<v Speaker 5>So honestly, I'm trying to more figure out what's going

0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:32.040
<v Speaker 5>on with your picture taking.

0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.760
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, personally, I'm like what you have to show for

0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:35.120
<v Speaker 6>from that?

0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.000
<v Speaker 3>You know, you got to live the moment, be in

0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:42.000
<v Speaker 3>the moment, stop recording it and taking photos of it,

0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:42.880
<v Speaker 3>just live in it.

0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:44.960
<v Speaker 5>I think this is really just like right here, this

0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:46.840
<v Speaker 5>is like the difference between what a man and a

0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:48.000
<v Speaker 5>woman would take pictures of.

0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:51.240
<v Speaker 7>I think it's more generational. Actually yeah, okay, we could

0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:52.280
<v Speaker 7>do generational too.

0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:54.559
<v Speaker 3>I mean, you know, you see a picture from thirty

0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:56.400
<v Speaker 3>forty years ago, if Tiger Woods hitting a shout a

0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:58.320
<v Speaker 3>Jack Nicholas, nobody has a phone out.

0:07:58.520 --> 0:07:59.960
<v Speaker 7>But now go figure.

0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:05.480
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live

0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:09.040
<v Speaker 2>weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:11.880
<v Speaker 2>Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:15.080
<v Speaker 2>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:19.200
<v Speaker 2>just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:22.920
<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about European banks. We had the big US

0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:25.040
<v Speaker 3>banks report over the last week or so, really strong

0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:28.840
<v Speaker 3>numbers coming out of the big global US banks and

0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:31.000
<v Speaker 3>investment banks. We're going to get some of the European

0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:33.000
<v Speaker 3>folks coming up, and we also got some news coming

0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:37.000
<v Speaker 3>out of HSBC, one of the big European and Asian banks.

0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:38.120
<v Speaker 7>Kind of a little restructuring there.

0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:42.120
<v Speaker 3>So let's check in with our euro banks official, Tamash Netzel.

0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:46.240
<v Speaker 3>He's a senior European banks analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Tomash,

0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:47.640
<v Speaker 3>thanks so much for joining us here.

0:08:47.800 --> 0:08:49.079
<v Speaker 7>Talk to us about HSBC.

0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:52.240
<v Speaker 3>First here they got a pretty big restructuring going on

0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:55.080
<v Speaker 3>at this bank. Tell us what's going on there at HSBC.

0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:59.120
<v Speaker 8>Yes, thank you very much for having me. Yes, definitely. Today,

0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:01.760
<v Speaker 8>all over the U you can hear the biggest restructuring

0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:04.080
<v Speaker 8>in almost a decade. And I would say that I

0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:06.920
<v Speaker 8>think it is the continuation of overhaul over restructuring of

0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:10.280
<v Speaker 8>the business which started at the beginning of twenty twenty

0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:13.880
<v Speaker 8>more or less by previous COEO. We have got new

0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.440
<v Speaker 8>CEO starting his job at first of September, and I

0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:19.640
<v Speaker 8>think one of his one of his priority was how

0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:21.920
<v Speaker 8>to how to make sure that we can sustain meetings

0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:25.720
<v Speaker 8>rot for beyond two the twenty four to twenty five

0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:28.400
<v Speaker 8>how do we deal with the business in the clinic

0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:31.160
<v Speaker 8>interest rate environment? And what do we do with the costs?

0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:35.280
<v Speaker 8>And the restructuring of the of his business he proposed

0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.480
<v Speaker 8>and introduced from first January twenty twenty five is just

0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.560
<v Speaker 8>to address others the issues that the HSBC is facing,

0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.200
<v Speaker 8>and the biggest one is of course controlling the cost

0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:45.880
<v Speaker 8>Can you talk.

0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:47.800
<v Speaker 6>To us about what some of those costs are?

0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:50.360
<v Speaker 5>And I mean when I hear firms are trying to

0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:53.200
<v Speaker 5>cut costs, I immediately think they're trying to cut jobs.

0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:57.840
<v Speaker 5>And if that's also going to be part of this restructuring, yeah, that's.

0:09:57.640 --> 0:09:59.360
<v Speaker 8>You know, that's very interesting because you know they talk

0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:03.000
<v Speaker 8>about the restatturing, they talk about new divisions, new heads

0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:05.960
<v Speaker 8>of the divisions, et cetera. And maybe there's a maybe

0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:09.080
<v Speaker 8>six cuts on the executive committee. But we don't get

0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:11.079
<v Speaker 8>any numbers. We don't know how much the restructuring is

0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:13.680
<v Speaker 8>gonna cost. We don't know what is the black figure

0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.920
<v Speaker 8>in terms of cost savings they would have to expect

0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:18.800
<v Speaker 8>and more more important, we don't know how much this

0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:22.320
<v Speaker 8>restructuring will cost. So yes, definitely there's lots of details.

0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:25.200
<v Speaker 8>There's lots of promises with restructuring, but you know, we

0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:27.920
<v Speaker 8>are yet still short on details. So we would like

0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.600
<v Speaker 8>definitely know where the cost CUDEG may come. Where they're

0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:35.480
<v Speaker 8>gonna cut jobs, potentially some jobs if they emerge two divisions.

0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:38.680
<v Speaker 8>There are definitely some overlaps in operations, so there's definitely

0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:43.280
<v Speaker 8>some podcasts jobs, potential cuts. So of course we don't

0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.000
<v Speaker 8>know anything of this yet right. I think there was

0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:48.520
<v Speaker 8>a rumors that two fo weeks ago that reported by

0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:51.120
<v Speaker 8>Field of Times that there's a around three hundred millions

0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:53.920
<v Speaker 8>of savings planned by new new management. We don't know

0:10:53.960 --> 0:10:56.120
<v Speaker 8>whether that's true. It has not been confirmed, but I

0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:59.200
<v Speaker 8>think three hundred millions would not be enough for HSBC

0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:03.280
<v Speaker 8>to move that on the investment sentiment. If you look

0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:05.720
<v Speaker 8>at the forecast for for for HSBC at the moment,

0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:07.520
<v Speaker 8>you know the revenue is going to grow by not

0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:11.280
<v Speaker 8>around five million dollars in the next two years, threw

0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:14.160
<v Speaker 8>twenty twenty six. Costs are going to grow by more

0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:17.480
<v Speaker 8>than two billions, So they have quite negative gap which

0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:19.559
<v Speaker 8>they which the CEO I think will have to address

0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:23.080
<v Speaker 8>with more details and more and more more about to

0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:24.000
<v Speaker 8>the point of the plan.

0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.439
<v Speaker 6>It sounds like you could all use a lot more

0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:26.959
<v Speaker 6>detail here.

0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:28.480
<v Speaker 5>What I heard you just say is that we don't

0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:30.679
<v Speaker 5>know a lot of what all of these details are

0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:32.520
<v Speaker 5>going to be. I mean, it looks like the stocks

0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:36.520
<v Speaker 5>mildly up a little bit today, houses generally being received

0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:38.880
<v Speaker 5>you know, by you, by the broader analyst community.

0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:40.160
<v Speaker 9>Yeah.

0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.880
<v Speaker 8>Well our initial directional Yeah, well, well done. This is

0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:46.400
<v Speaker 8>this is the right step in the right directional shoulding

0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:52.199
<v Speaker 8>separating Hong Kong and China business, creating new new divisions,

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:56.200
<v Speaker 8>hoping creating some synergies post PRODUCTIBA. It's all good, it's

0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.480
<v Speaker 8>all good on paper, but you know, we don't know details.

0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:00.960
<v Speaker 8>We don't know. That's why the h shares price today

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:03.520
<v Speaker 8>shroud off this news kind of right with flatish. I

0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:07.200
<v Speaker 8>think market is expecting more from from more bold moves

0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:12.560
<v Speaker 8>by new CEO. There's definitely more deeply cost savings measure

0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:14.600
<v Speaker 8>needed for a bout the banks. So I think we're

0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:17.800
<v Speaker 8>going to expect day reporting three KY results next week.

0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.120
<v Speaker 8>We don't know how much they're going to disclose over there.

0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:22.960
<v Speaker 8>Maybe more will be disclosed during the four KY results,

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:25.480
<v Speaker 8>but as soon as as as long as we don't

0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.520
<v Speaker 8>have much details nothing to work on, it's very difficult

0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:31.640
<v Speaker 8>to gauge what is the direction of travels for ROT

0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:33.720
<v Speaker 8>and HBC and where they want to go to. We

0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:36.800
<v Speaker 8>do have our focus at the on HSBC. We we

0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:38.800
<v Speaker 8>talk about where they can cut costs, how they can

0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.880
<v Speaker 8>boost productivity with a better age of those but you know,

0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:44.960
<v Speaker 8>we expect as well as management to come with a

0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.400
<v Speaker 8>solid plan to do deliver on those metrics.

0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:49.680
<v Speaker 3>To mush let's zoom out a little bit on your

0:12:49.720 --> 0:12:51.839
<v Speaker 3>European bank coverage. We've had the US some of the

0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.400
<v Speaker 3>big US banks report and some pretty solid numbers, mostly

0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.679
<v Speaker 3>on the capital market side. What are you expecting from

0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:58.440
<v Speaker 3>the European banks this earnings season?

0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:02.160
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, so definitely know the focus will be on on

0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:05.400
<v Speaker 8>the clinic interest rates and the impact on NII because

0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:08.160
<v Speaker 8>European banks being running on this on this high interest

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.160
<v Speaker 8>rates for quite a long time and with now the

0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.680
<v Speaker 8>expectations the interest will gone down, so there's some revenue

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:15.559
<v Speaker 8>pressure coming. But if you look at the geographical you know,

0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:19.000
<v Speaker 8>it's very interesting to look at Europe from perspective or

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.400
<v Speaker 8>UK banks and europe banks or UK banks are very

0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:24.920
<v Speaker 8>well positioned to the clinic interest rates because of the hedges.

0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.839
<v Speaker 8>The for revenue forecast is for four to six persons

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 8>through twenty twenty six, which is much higher than other

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:33.400
<v Speaker 8>European banks. So there are some banks which are exposed

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.360
<v Speaker 8>positively let's put to the clinic interest rates, which can

0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:38.800
<v Speaker 8>be against common sense, but yes they are UK bank

0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 8>to go the headges. European banks know they struggle more

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:44.600
<v Speaker 8>with an II revenue generation. Then when when you look

0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:47.280
<v Speaker 8>at you know, low base of investment bank revenues for

0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.600
<v Speaker 8>backers and the others know that can be a positively

0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:52.840
<v Speaker 8>maybe a positive surprise over there as well. So in

0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 8>general I think, you know, we're going to expect more

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:59.199
<v Speaker 8>comments on out of twenty five and how revenue will

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:04.359
<v Speaker 8>will travel next year. Course rights are going to cut

0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.560
<v Speaker 8>more aggrecively and that would be determined the performance of

0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:08.319
<v Speaker 8>the short crisis.

0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:11.160
<v Speaker 3>Tomash Great Stuff has always appreciated Tomas set so he's

0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 3>a senior European banks analyst for Bloomberg Intelligency is based

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:19.160
<v Speaker 3>in London. HSBC is in the news today kicking off

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:21.880
<v Speaker 3>for restructuring and trying to get that cost structure more

0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:23.200
<v Speaker 3>in line with what they expect to be at a

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:27.400
<v Speaker 3>tighter revenue environment with interest rates coming down. New CFO,

0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:30.000
<v Speaker 3>the first female CFO, and the bank's history.

0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:30.640
<v Speaker 7>How cool is that.

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:36.120
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:39.280
<v Speaker 2>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affo card playing Android

0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 2>otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 2>you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:48.760
<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about real banking, regional banking.

0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:50.120
<v Speaker 7>Joe Castillia joins us.

0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 3>Castilia joins us President and CEO of Citizens Bank of Edmond.

0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.560
<v Speaker 7>That would be Edmen, Oklahoma.

0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:00.720
<v Speaker 3>Right now, which is basically by Google maps, oklahom.

0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:01.480
<v Speaker 7>Because I have no idea where that is.

0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.200
<v Speaker 3>It's basically Oklahoma City, so you're right there in Oka City.

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 3>So there's a lot of stuff going on in the

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.280
<v Speaker 3>National Cowboy and Western Heritage Museum.

0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 7>That would be my first stop.

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:13.280
<v Speaker 6>I mean, I would think going on Oklahoma football game now.

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:16.360
<v Speaker 3>That yeah, Oklahoma that would be a little bit, Yes,

0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:18.600
<v Speaker 3>a little bit. Jill, thanks so much for joining us here.

0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 3>Talk to us about your bank. Who is your customer

0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:23.320
<v Speaker 3>for your bank?

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:25.840
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So I get the privilege of being a CEO

0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:28.600
<v Speaker 1>of a one location, one hundred and twenty four year

0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.920
<v Speaker 1>old community bank located in suburban Oklahoma City and we're

0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:33.320
<v Speaker 1>located on the same intersection and.

0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.040
<v Speaker 10>We've been since nineteen oh one.

0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:38.720
<v Speaker 1>So that's history, very very trying to a very traditional

0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.520
<v Speaker 1>community bank. The name of citizens been citizens since nineteen

0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.560
<v Speaker 1>oh one. Literally citizens pulling their money together kind of

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.800
<v Speaker 1>the first like crowdsourcing and then loaning and money out

0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 1>to the rest of the community. But on our board

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:54.240
<v Speaker 1>about in two thousand and eight, thousand and nine, the

0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:56.960
<v Speaker 1>bank went through a turnaround and after that point decided

0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 1>we want to be here.

0:15:57.600 --> 0:15:59.400
<v Speaker 10>For another one hundred years. And so it's a very

0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:01.280
<v Speaker 10>technologic forward bank.

0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:04.600
<v Speaker 1>So we just launched a digital military bank, so we

0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:08.280
<v Speaker 1>have a large military group that's part of our customer base.

0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 1>But it's primarily just a traditional community bank where the

0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:12.760
<v Speaker 1>geographic center.

0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:15.240
<v Speaker 3>Militaries all through your family, right.

0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:19.240
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So I was enlisted, my husband retired Army's sons

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:20.520
<v Speaker 1>Army daughters.

0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:24.680
<v Speaker 10>Navy, well not just West Point Enaval Academy. That's right, Wow,

0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:25.520
<v Speaker 10>you did your research.

0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:27.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So I mean so I mean so for a

0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:31.200
<v Speaker 3>bank like yours, I mean it's I need a checking account,

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 3>I need a savings account.

0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:33.160
<v Speaker 7>Do I do?

0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:34.960
<v Speaker 3>Do you guys also do like a mortgage and we

0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:36.600
<v Speaker 3>do business loans and all that type of thing.

0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.120
<v Speaker 1>It is the whenever people say like you should have

0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:41.080
<v Speaker 1>a niche market and that's the way to be successful,

0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:42.400
<v Speaker 1>we're the antithesis to that.

0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:44.800
<v Speaker 10>So we do everything. So one stop shop for every

0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:45.600
<v Speaker 10>it is everything.

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:49.080
<v Speaker 1>So I literally will work with a small business perspective

0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.760
<v Speaker 1>owner for three years to help them get bankable so

0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 1>they can achieve their dream, help with families, buy their

0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:58.200
<v Speaker 1>first home, get that first checking account, stavements account for

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:01.400
<v Speaker 1>a youngster. So I mean it's being part of someone's life.

0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:03.800
<v Speaker 1>And even like when in this environment where the interst

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.359
<v Speaker 1>rate's changing, if there's any kind of difficulty with the business,

0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:10.879
<v Speaker 1>we're just walking along the entire way. As someone gets alone.

0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.400
<v Speaker 1>It's not just ending in with that transaction. It's really

0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:14.800
<v Speaker 1>a relationship over time.

0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 5>And what are your clients coming to you for? Like

0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:20.679
<v Speaker 5>when whether it's an individual or a business like what.

0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.240
<v Speaker 5>I'm sure they most hear, Oh, rates are going down,

0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:26.359
<v Speaker 5>but you know, inflation and whatever, and they're probably all like,

0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:27.800
<v Speaker 5>they have a lot of questions for you, I'm sure,

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.200
<v Speaker 5>So what are they coming to you for most these days?

0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:33.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so we talk really more holistically about the whole business.

0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:34.879
<v Speaker 1>So it may be that their costs are going up,

0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:37.159
<v Speaker 1>and how do I know achieve some a scale or

0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.119
<v Speaker 1>how do I partner to be able to get input

0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:39.720
<v Speaker 1>costs lower?

0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 10>What are some different labor options.

0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:43.480
<v Speaker 1>Some of them have left their businesses where they've hired

0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:46.080
<v Speaker 1>employees now to run and start off the family owned business.

0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.200
<v Speaker 1>Well now they're having to move back in the business

0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:51.080
<v Speaker 1>because they can't afford the labor costs associated with it.

0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 1>So it's really talking about it all holistically and how

0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:56.399
<v Speaker 1>do we help them be a competitive advantage for them

0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:58.600
<v Speaker 1>to be able to manage their business the best way possible.

0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:00.439
<v Speaker 1>And if that means that it's a lowe own that

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.880
<v Speaker 1>we can provide, or if it's investing in some type

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:06.720
<v Speaker 1>of money market or other asset, and then we're helping

0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:07.879
<v Speaker 1>them make those decisions.

0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:10.720
<v Speaker 3>You know, when Molly and I hear from the you know,

0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:12.439
<v Speaker 3>the big banks when they report their earning is one

0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:13.919
<v Speaker 3>of the things they say they're spending money is in

0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:16.960
<v Speaker 3>tech technology. But for a bank of your size, how

0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:19.719
<v Speaker 3>does technology do you? Guys have to play in that

0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:21.239
<v Speaker 3>game too and have all the apps and do all

0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:21.879
<v Speaker 3>that kind of stuff.

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:24.960
<v Speaker 1>There is no customers not going to say I'm not

0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:27.639
<v Speaker 1>going to have the same quality of banking services at

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:29.400
<v Speaker 1>your bank that I can have somewhere.

0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:30.000
<v Speaker 10>Else at Chase.

0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:32.440
<v Speaker 1>So we have to provide the same level of technology,

0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:35.800
<v Speaker 1>and even better we invent technology. We have a patent

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:40.159
<v Speaker 1>on a small business remote small business kind ATM and

0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:41.520
<v Speaker 1>they're a little bank invented.

0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:43.480
<v Speaker 10>And I would.

0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:45.280
<v Speaker 1>Challenge you if you open your account as a doesn's

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.040
<v Speaker 1>bank evment, I bet that you would have a better

0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:49.680
<v Speaker 1>experience doing that then you would at a large institution

0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:52.560
<v Speaker 1>for no cost. You can sit there and have your

0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:55.480
<v Speaker 1>checking account, wunch your credit score, not have a lot

0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:57.159
<v Speaker 1>of fees, and then be able to call me or

0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:59.760
<v Speaker 1>tech spee twenty four to seven the bank CEO to

0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:01.239
<v Speaker 1>say hey, I have a question about this.

0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 10>Wow that yeah, imagine, I'm not sure.

0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:07.560
<v Speaker 5>I think you're probably much more accessible than he is,

0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:08.840
<v Speaker 5>probably to your customers.

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:10.560
<v Speaker 1>And I said in the lobby, so you're able to

0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:13.240
<v Speaker 1>see if there's any anxiety or if there's any concerns,

0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:16.480
<v Speaker 1>and so you're really accountable and transparent with your customers

0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:18.200
<v Speaker 1>so that you can really help your community grow.

0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:20.879
<v Speaker 5>It was so interesting when you were just saying, I

0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:23.920
<v Speaker 5>assume this is about small businesses talking about still grappling

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.159
<v Speaker 5>with labor costs, because I feel like that's something that

0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:28.879
<v Speaker 5>anecdotally and in the data, we see a lot of

0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:32.360
<v Speaker 5>that has subsided from really the peak times of you know,

0:19:32.400 --> 0:19:34.960
<v Speaker 5>maybe two three years ago. But you're saying this is

0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:37.760
<v Speaker 5>still really a prevalent issue in your community.

0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.160
<v Speaker 1>For sure, labor availability I think, O, let me say

0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:43.640
<v Speaker 1>we have thirty seven months that consistently get below four

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.040
<v Speaker 1>percent unemployment, and if we hit one more month.

0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:48.040
<v Speaker 10>It's a record hot a record long.

0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:50.879
<v Speaker 1>Period of time of low unemployment. So labor availability is

0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:53.920
<v Speaker 1>really scarce. And so then you see again like people

0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:56.119
<v Speaker 1>recruiting their sons and daughters to be working in their

0:19:56.160 --> 0:19:59.000
<v Speaker 1>food truck where they could previously be able to hire

0:19:59.000 --> 0:19:59.600
<v Speaker 1>someone to do that.

0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:02.679
<v Speaker 3>So talks about the economy in Great Oklahoma City. Is

0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:05.439
<v Speaker 3>it what is the basis? Is it still energy or

0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:07.760
<v Speaker 3>is it have you diversity from what is the e commune.

0:20:08.160 --> 0:20:10.200
<v Speaker 1>It's quite diverse, and so you have to come and

0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 1>visit Oka City and let me give you the grand tour.

0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:15.200
<v Speaker 1>But I mean a large amount that we have military

0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>basis there, large federal government presence, still energy.

0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:21.320
<v Speaker 10>Some agriculture.

0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:23.560
<v Speaker 1>But it's a much more diverse community than it was

0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:25.800
<v Speaker 1>back in the eighties whenere we were so dependent upon

0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:29.280
<v Speaker 1>oil and gas. But it still permeates everything in our economy.

0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:31.480
<v Speaker 5>And how about like what are some of like the

0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:33.760
<v Speaker 5>you know, the bigger small businesses in the area, Like

0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:36.040
<v Speaker 5>what kind of what kind of work are they engaged in?

0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:38.760
<v Speaker 1>Yes, so we have a large presence in the aerospace industry.

0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:41.359
<v Speaker 1>So Boeing has a large manufacturing plant.

0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:45.160
<v Speaker 10>There, exactly a small business, not a small business.

0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Really great restaurant scene if you're a foodie, would love

0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:53.600
<v Speaker 1>a city. So lots of manufacturing, so parts for especially

0:20:53.600 --> 0:20:56.240
<v Speaker 1>the oil and gas industry. You find there lots of

0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:59.800
<v Speaker 1>great small businesses. Loves travel stops not a small business now,

0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:03.639
<v Speaker 1>but started in Oklahoma City. So really great stories of

0:21:03.680 --> 0:21:05.040
<v Speaker 1>growth and resiliency.

0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:07.000
<v Speaker 5>You know, the only time I actually have been to

0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 5>Oklahoma was back after one of the tornadoes.

0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:12.920
<v Speaker 6>I think it was about ten years ago near More.

0:21:12.880 --> 0:21:15.879
<v Speaker 5>Oklahoma, And I'm thinking now, you know, as we've just

0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:19.560
<v Speaker 5>had these pair of devastating hurricanes in the southeast, I mean,

0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:21.240
<v Speaker 5>how has it been with I mean, you guys have

0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:23.600
<v Speaker 5>obviously had your fair share of tornadoes over the years.

0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:25.960
<v Speaker 5>Like what is it like for you in the banking

0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 5>seat when you have these kind of events and the

0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:30.520
<v Speaker 5>rebuilding efforts and how much are you involved?

0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, what a great question. So as a community bank,

0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:35.480
<v Speaker 1>you're just always ready. And so whether those are really

0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:38.000
<v Speaker 1>small disasters that really only you see in your community

0:21:38.000 --> 0:21:39.919
<v Speaker 1>that don't make the national news, you're running to the

0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:42.159
<v Speaker 1>aid of your community there, and it certainly at a

0:21:42.160 --> 0:21:44.240
<v Speaker 1>broader scale, And we're so grateful to be part of

0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:47.359
<v Speaker 1>a greater community banking network that when are even in

0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:50.000
<v Speaker 1>this situation where the hurricanes were able to rally around

0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:52.680
<v Speaker 1>our community makers that are directly impacted to help them

0:21:52.680 --> 0:21:56.200
<v Speaker 1>in their customers. So I'm having those networks of communities

0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:59.119
<v Speaker 1>both internally in this little small community kind sector as

0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:01.880
<v Speaker 1>well as kind of broad in the nation has really

0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:04.040
<v Speaker 1>allowed a community bank to be much more impactful than

0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:05.000
<v Speaker 1>just the bank itself.

0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:08.639
<v Speaker 3>What's a typical consumer customer for your bank.

0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:11.080
<v Speaker 10>Oh wow, there's just no typical.

0:22:11.200 --> 0:22:14.280
<v Speaker 1>So it could be I just had a conversation this

0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:17.920
<v Speaker 1>weekend with an elderly woman who was wanting to buy

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:20.080
<v Speaker 1>a trailer, and so we were talking about options for

0:22:20.119 --> 0:22:23.159
<v Speaker 1>her to be able to have an independent living.

0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:24.959
<v Speaker 10>Where she wanted to be. So it could be at

0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:25.560
<v Speaker 10>that level.

0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:28.600
<v Speaker 1>Or it could be that you're buying their second home

0:22:28.640 --> 0:22:31.520
<v Speaker 1>on a really nice lake, or a new car, or

0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:33.840
<v Speaker 1>that they're trying to finance their kids' education.

0:22:33.960 --> 0:22:36.680
<v Speaker 10>So it really runs the gamut. So, but it's typically

0:22:36.680 --> 0:22:37.240
<v Speaker 10>someone I know.

0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:39.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean, usually I'm working with them face to face,

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:42.560
<v Speaker 1>but it could be just a connection. Actually, last time

0:22:42.600 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 1>I was in New York City, there was a small

0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:45.960
<v Speaker 1>business customer I was connected with. I was trying to

0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:48.560
<v Speaker 1>sustain their small business. So it just happens, all three

0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:49.880
<v Speaker 1>connections and relationships.

0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:53.640
<v Speaker 5>How much are you seeing both between individuals and businesses

0:22:53.760 --> 0:22:56.199
<v Speaker 5>looking for any kind of loans right now? I imagine that

0:22:56.240 --> 0:22:59.199
<v Speaker 5>they're still probably pretty spooked by the interest rates that

0:22:59.200 --> 0:23:01.800
<v Speaker 5>are out there, maybe thinking oh rates are coming down,

0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 5>can hold out a little bit longer.

0:23:03.400 --> 0:23:04.920
<v Speaker 6>Is that kind of the narrative right now?

0:23:05.040 --> 0:23:05.240
<v Speaker 7>Yeah?

0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:06.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, but a lot of them are like, if

0:23:06.800 --> 0:23:09.520
<v Speaker 1>there are truck stops working, they need the truck now,

0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:11.840
<v Speaker 1>they can't wait, and so they're trying to figure out

0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:14.120
<v Speaker 1>how to I work away around this interest rate environment

0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:16.520
<v Speaker 1>to ensure that can still be profitable. So they're not

0:23:16.560 --> 0:23:19.159
<v Speaker 1>really playing like the markets like you may do at

0:23:19.200 --> 0:23:21.520
<v Speaker 1>a larger scale. They really are having to buy something

0:23:21.520 --> 0:23:23.520
<v Speaker 1>when they need it, but they are considering it as

0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:28.040
<v Speaker 1>I think about growing or expanding locations or scaling their businesses.

0:23:28.240 --> 0:23:29.400
<v Speaker 10>But many have adjusted to.

0:23:29.359 --> 0:23:31.880
<v Speaker 1>This rate environment and there's still a lot of demand

0:23:31.920 --> 0:23:34.080
<v Speaker 1>out there, and there's a lot of other cash sources

0:23:34.119 --> 0:23:39.000
<v Speaker 1>beyond loans still with private equity investors and other government

0:23:39.040 --> 0:23:41.639
<v Speaker 1>type of programs still available for small business to scale

0:23:41.640 --> 0:23:44.199
<v Speaker 1>without having necessarily get loans. So the raid environment then

0:23:44.240 --> 0:23:45.880
<v Speaker 1>it becomes a little bit less consequential.

0:23:46.200 --> 0:23:47.800
<v Speaker 6>Is there a lot of going on in the housing

0:23:47.800 --> 0:23:48.720
<v Speaker 6>market right there?

0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:49.160
<v Speaker 8>Wow?

0:23:49.240 --> 0:23:51.560
<v Speaker 1>The housing market I think is just tough everywhere. Supply

0:23:51.760 --> 0:23:54.200
<v Speaker 1>is just so limited, and you have those low rates

0:23:54.240 --> 0:23:57.040
<v Speaker 1>that people have in their mortgages keeping them from moving,

0:23:57.119 --> 0:23:59.760
<v Speaker 1>and then the cost of constructions. We didn't have transformers

0:23:59.760 --> 0:24:01.560
<v Speaker 1>of itailable forever, so they've may be able to bring

0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:04.680
<v Speaker 1>online developments and you didn't have a lot of availability

0:24:04.720 --> 0:24:06.720
<v Speaker 1>to be able to build. And so there's still some

0:24:06.800 --> 0:24:09.879
<v Speaker 1>supply hiccups, especially when you think about municipalities and a

0:24:09.920 --> 0:24:12.399
<v Speaker 1>lot of the infrastructure that's occurring that's taken away some

0:24:12.440 --> 0:24:15.159
<v Speaker 1>of the pavers and earth movers that would normally be

0:24:15.280 --> 0:24:18.960
<v Speaker 1>used to be able to provide greater development opportunities.

0:24:18.400 --> 0:24:20.200
<v Speaker 10>For one to four family loans.

0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:23.399
<v Speaker 3>Was during the pandemic, was Oklahoma City a city that

0:24:23.600 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 3>maybe gained population or lost population, goes to New York

0:24:25.800 --> 0:24:28.040
<v Speaker 3>City here everybody left, you know, and all went down

0:24:28.080 --> 0:24:29.040
<v Speaker 3>to Florida and so on.

0:24:29.160 --> 0:24:30.760
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, everybody's becoming in Oklahoma.

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:33.000
<v Speaker 1>So it's like a reverse great Sir Wrath, you know

0:24:33.040 --> 0:24:35.679
<v Speaker 1>where how so many Californians coming in and so that

0:24:35.840 --> 0:24:39.320
<v Speaker 1>is putting prices, you know, some price pressure on one

0:24:39.359 --> 0:24:41.359
<v Speaker 1>to four family homes. But yeah, we have we are

0:24:41.400 --> 0:24:44.520
<v Speaker 1>a net gain and when it came to migration, both

0:24:44.960 --> 0:24:46.680
<v Speaker 1>during COVID and afterwards.

0:24:46.240 --> 0:24:49.840
<v Speaker 3>We're Norman, Oklahoma, home of the university. Oklahoma's right there. Yeah,

0:24:49.880 --> 0:24:51.159
<v Speaker 3>So is that where you guys get a lot like

0:24:51.200 --> 0:24:52.920
<v Speaker 3>your employees, if you need some employees to should hire

0:24:52.960 --> 0:24:53.320
<v Speaker 3>some graduates.

0:24:53.359 --> 0:24:56.919
<v Speaker 1>Community we're smacked between University of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State University,

0:24:56.960 --> 0:25:00.159
<v Speaker 1>and then the state's oldest institution, University of centralklahom It

0:25:00.200 --> 0:25:02.280
<v Speaker 1>is about two blocks away from the bank. Wow, our

0:25:02.320 --> 0:25:05.399
<v Speaker 1>bank helps secure the land prior to statehood for that

0:25:05.520 --> 0:25:06.440
<v Speaker 1>university to be built.

0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:08.280
<v Speaker 5>I would think that's got to be pretty good for

0:25:08.359 --> 0:25:10.040
<v Speaker 5>labor costs if you've got a whole lot of college

0:25:10.160 --> 0:25:11.000
<v Speaker 5>kids right around there.

0:25:11.080 --> 0:25:13.879
<v Speaker 1>Now, it helps with having that, but we also have

0:25:13.960 --> 0:25:17.040
<v Speaker 1>to compete against Texas, which is a growing market and recreuse.

0:25:17.400 --> 0:25:19.439
<v Speaker 1>More than half the students that are at the University

0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:22.560
<v Speaker 1>of Oklahoma from Texas. Yes, so we have to keep

0:25:22.560 --> 0:25:23.720
<v Speaker 1>them in Oklahoma so that.

0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:25.359
<v Speaker 6>We can better growing.

0:25:25.520 --> 0:25:25.720
<v Speaker 9>Yes.

0:25:25.920 --> 0:25:29.320
<v Speaker 5>I mean I went to Syracuse University. Obviously very different

0:25:29.520 --> 0:25:31.399
<v Speaker 5>climate than in Oklahoma.

0:25:31.359 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 6>But similar in the sense that they like.

0:25:34.200 --> 0:25:35.920
<v Speaker 5>A lot of the employers in the area would say, like,

0:25:36.000 --> 0:25:38.640
<v Speaker 5>the biggest struggle is that the graduates don't want to stay.

0:25:38.880 --> 0:25:40.800
<v Speaker 6>They want to go back to wherever they came from.

0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:42.760
<v Speaker 6>I imagine maybe that sounds like a little bit of

0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:43.440
<v Speaker 6>what you're talking about.

0:25:43.480 --> 0:25:45.239
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we're much more successful now, and there's a lot

0:25:45.240 --> 0:25:47.879
<v Speaker 1>of regional institutions that in the rural communities that are

0:25:47.960 --> 0:25:49.359
<v Speaker 1>producing a lot great talent.

0:25:49.920 --> 0:25:51.920
<v Speaker 7>Jill, thank you so much for joining us. Jill Stee.

0:25:52.000 --> 0:25:55.480
<v Speaker 3>She's a president and CEO of Citizens Bank of Edmund, Oklahoma.

0:25:55.560 --> 0:25:57.800
<v Speaker 3>So for Ever and Edmund, I Google mapped that it's

0:25:58.040 --> 0:26:00.680
<v Speaker 3>basically part of the Oklahoma City metropley a little bit north,

0:26:01.000 --> 0:26:02.160
<v Speaker 3>but I mean everything's right there.

0:26:02.560 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 5>Yeah. So anyway, I mean, my brother and his friends

0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:08.240
<v Speaker 5>actually for a bachelor party just went to a football

0:26:08.280 --> 0:26:10.639
<v Speaker 5>game at Oklahoma, which was, like, I think, got'd be

0:26:10.720 --> 0:26:12.800
<v Speaker 5>one of the more fun ideas, you know, not doing

0:26:12.880 --> 0:26:14.800
<v Speaker 5>like the Vegas booze cruise scene, but going to a

0:26:14.840 --> 0:26:15.800
<v Speaker 5>college football game.

0:26:15.920 --> 0:26:18.600
<v Speaker 7>Yes, awesome, big big player, love that Oklahoma.

0:26:20.160 --> 0:26:24.000
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:26:24.119 --> 0:26:27.040
<v Speaker 2>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and

0:26:27.160 --> 0:26:30.400
<v Speaker 2>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen

0:26:30.560 --> 0:26:33.640
<v Speaker 2>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:26:34.040 --> 0:26:36.760
<v Speaker 2>Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:26:38.119 --> 0:26:40.040
<v Speaker 3>Let's break it down to the GM stuff with David

0:26:40.040 --> 0:26:42.800
<v Speaker 3>Welche's the Detroit Burea, chief of Bloomberg News. Hey, David

0:26:43.000 --> 0:26:45.320
<v Speaker 3>stocks up. Big market likes what they see. I guess

0:26:45.480 --> 0:26:47.240
<v Speaker 3>the world wants big trucks.

0:26:48.040 --> 0:26:51.480
<v Speaker 9>Big trucks, big SUVs. Yes they do, and and they're

0:26:51.520 --> 0:26:54.359
<v Speaker 9>selling them a huge prices. GM's average vehicle in the

0:26:54.400 --> 0:26:58.040
<v Speaker 9>quarter soldess sold for more than forty nine thousand dollars.

0:26:58.320 --> 0:27:02.840
<v Speaker 10>WOWW what happened to the the incentive thirty market vehicles?

0:27:02.880 --> 0:27:04.800
<v Speaker 7>Not even I mean wow, which is amazing.

0:27:04.960 --> 0:27:08.160
<v Speaker 3>I mean I got the Ford F one fifty electric

0:27:08.240 --> 0:27:10.320
<v Speaker 3>one Matt Miller got for me to test drive.

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:12.280
<v Speaker 7>That was ninety four thousand dollars to the price.

0:27:12.600 --> 0:27:15.960
<v Speaker 3>So give it with What's what's GM saying these days

0:27:16.000 --> 0:27:19.640
<v Speaker 3>about how they're managing this transition to evs.

0:27:21.480 --> 0:27:24.240
<v Speaker 9>Look, there are sales in the quarter for evs. They

0:27:24.320 --> 0:27:27.960
<v Speaker 9>sold over thirty thousand of them, which by Tesla standards

0:27:28.040 --> 0:27:30.199
<v Speaker 9>not a big number, but it was enough to put

0:27:30.280 --> 0:27:32.760
<v Speaker 9>GM in second place in the US market EV sales.

0:27:33.600 --> 0:27:36.240
<v Speaker 9>The real story there is they're getting sales volume up,

0:27:36.640 --> 0:27:39.639
<v Speaker 9>which is a good thing, and that means they're getting

0:27:39.760 --> 0:27:42.160
<v Speaker 9>scale in their battery plants. The battery is the most

0:27:42.160 --> 0:27:45.040
<v Speaker 9>expensive part of the vehicle, and so they can start

0:27:45.040 --> 0:27:47.160
<v Speaker 9>to bring costs down. And they're saying that fourth quarter

0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 9>and into next year they will be at be making

0:27:50.880 --> 0:27:53.919
<v Speaker 9>a variable profit on the vehicles, which means that if

0:27:53.960 --> 0:27:56.000
<v Speaker 9>you forget about all the fixed costs, the billions they've

0:27:56.040 --> 0:27:58.639
<v Speaker 9>invested in battery plans, forget about those vehicle plants and

0:27:58.640 --> 0:28:01.800
<v Speaker 9>all the engineering, they're making money. But look that it's

0:28:01.800 --> 0:28:04.720
<v Speaker 9>a step toward making money on vehicles that are pretty

0:28:04.760 --> 0:28:09.160
<v Speaker 9>expensive to produce. And you know, GM's gaining market share.

0:28:09.200 --> 0:28:16.840
<v Speaker 9>And the EV situation is very interesting because Tesla has

0:28:17.320 --> 0:28:21.840
<v Speaker 9>five models if you count the cyber truck for sale GM.

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:23.440
<v Speaker 9>By the end and next year, by the end of

0:28:23.440 --> 0:28:25.000
<v Speaker 9>this year, they're going to have I think ten, and

0:28:25.080 --> 0:28:26.359
<v Speaker 9>by the end and next year they'll have about a

0:28:26.440 --> 0:28:29.960
<v Speaker 9>dozen different models. That's a lot of variety. It's also

0:28:30.000 --> 0:28:32.560
<v Speaker 9>a lot of production. So if the market for evs

0:28:32.680 --> 0:28:35.880
<v Speaker 9>continues to grow pretty nicely, GM will have the best

0:28:35.960 --> 0:28:37.879
<v Speaker 9>variety and a lot of production to be able to

0:28:37.920 --> 0:28:41.120
<v Speaker 9>get it, which is exactly what that the domestic producers

0:28:41.160 --> 0:28:44.960
<v Speaker 9>in China did to steal their home market away from GM,

0:28:45.040 --> 0:28:48.800
<v Speaker 9>Volksweg and Toyota, Ford, et cetera. It's a market doesn't

0:28:49.080 --> 0:28:52.000
<v Speaker 9>materialize and you know GM is going to probably have

0:28:52.120 --> 0:28:54.120
<v Speaker 9>to lay off a few workers in some of these

0:28:54.200 --> 0:28:54.800
<v Speaker 9>EV plans.

0:28:54.960 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, maybe just a few.

0:28:56.160 --> 0:28:58.880
<v Speaker 5>I mean you're talking though about how GM was able

0:28:58.960 --> 0:29:01.400
<v Speaker 5>to sell a but like all these cars at these

0:29:01.440 --> 0:29:04.440
<v Speaker 5>above average prices. Is that true for the evy market

0:29:04.520 --> 0:29:06.440
<v Speaker 5>as well, or are we talking more gas powered there.

0:29:07.200 --> 0:29:10.200
<v Speaker 9>It's both because evs are pretty expensive. The difference though,

0:29:10.480 --> 0:29:12.120
<v Speaker 9>and this is where GM is starting to get a

0:29:12.160 --> 0:29:14.840
<v Speaker 9>lot of its electric vehicle growth, is they have an

0:29:14.880 --> 0:29:17.480
<v Speaker 9>electric version of the Chevy Equinox that starts at thirty

0:29:17.560 --> 0:29:21.720
<v Speaker 9>five thousand after government credit, it's about twenty seven and

0:29:21.800 --> 0:29:24.680
<v Speaker 9>a half. There are many vehicles for sale period of

0:29:24.720 --> 0:29:29.240
<v Speaker 9>any kind that run on anything, you know, alcohol, electricity,

0:29:30.600 --> 0:29:33.840
<v Speaker 9>a fusel earlier, you name it. But that self for

0:29:33.960 --> 0:29:37.640
<v Speaker 9>blow of thirty thousand dollars, so you know, and probably

0:29:37.680 --> 0:29:39.680
<v Speaker 9>most of them are selling for closer to forty before

0:29:39.720 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 9>the federal tax credit. So but that's a pretty cheap vehicle,

0:29:42.320 --> 0:29:45.560
<v Speaker 9>and they're getting a lot of growth there. But generally speaking, yeah,

0:29:45.920 --> 0:29:50.080
<v Speaker 9>Cadillac lyric expensive vehicle, even the Chevy Blazer, a lot

0:29:50.120 --> 0:29:52.000
<v Speaker 9>of those can go from more than fifty thousand. Then

0:29:52.040 --> 0:29:54.080
<v Speaker 9>you know that's an electric as well. They're pick up

0:29:54.160 --> 0:29:58.920
<v Speaker 9>certainly very expensive Silverado pickup in the GMCCRA pickup, and

0:29:59.120 --> 0:30:02.360
<v Speaker 9>the Hummers are well one hundred, so you know, these

0:30:02.360 --> 0:30:03.960
<v Speaker 9>are expensive vehicles for the most part.

0:30:05.600 --> 0:30:06.880
<v Speaker 7>All right, very good, David Welch.

0:30:06.960 --> 0:30:07.600
<v Speaker 10>We appreciate that.

0:30:07.720 --> 0:30:11.600
<v Speaker 3>David Welch, Detroit, Burachief for Bloomberg News, joining us from Detroit.

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:14.440
<v Speaker 3>And again I was looking at the stock of you know,

0:30:15.040 --> 0:30:17.920
<v Speaker 3>GM at fifty two week high today, just a really

0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:21.240
<v Speaker 3>nice move. Stocks up about eight percent and change. It's

0:30:21.320 --> 0:30:23.720
<v Speaker 3>up about close to forty eight percent.

0:30:23.600 --> 0:30:24.320
<v Speaker 7>Year to date.

0:30:24.960 --> 0:30:27.480
<v Speaker 3>Whereas you look at General Motors, I'm sorry you look

0:30:27.480 --> 0:30:30.080
<v Speaker 3>at Ford year to data sucks down ten ten percent.

0:30:30.360 --> 0:30:33.040
<v Speaker 5>I think the more amazing thing here is that David

0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:35.400
<v Speaker 5>was talking about is how they've been able to sell

0:30:35.520 --> 0:30:38.560
<v Speaker 5>at all these above average prices. I mean, the story

0:30:38.720 --> 0:30:41.680
<v Speaker 5>of the car market lately has been incentives and markdowns,

0:30:42.000 --> 0:30:44.600
<v Speaker 5>you know, and especially with like auto loans being as

0:30:44.680 --> 0:30:46.840
<v Speaker 5>expensive as they are, how they're able to do this

0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:47.760
<v Speaker 5>is remarkable to me.

0:30:48.160 --> 0:30:50.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I remember talking to Kevin Tynan, who was

0:30:50.360 --> 0:30:52.560
<v Speaker 3>the auto analyst of Bloomberg Intelligence for many years, and

0:30:52.640 --> 0:30:55.480
<v Speaker 3>he just said, listen, they make so much money with

0:30:55.600 --> 0:30:58.680
<v Speaker 3>these crossovers, SUVs, trucks, whatever you want to call them. Literally,

0:30:58.760 --> 0:31:02.440
<v Speaker 3>on a perdutive basis there so profitable that the incentive

0:31:02.520 --> 0:31:05.160
<v Speaker 3>to switch over to EV's is just isn't there, and

0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:08.480
<v Speaker 3>they're not going to do it until the economics makes sense.

0:31:09.160 --> 0:31:11.760
<v Speaker 6>So you're saying, as GM or as a customer, to

0:31:11.800 --> 0:31:12.160
<v Speaker 6>sweat no.

0:31:12.400 --> 0:31:15.240
<v Speaker 3>As GM said, automakers they're so incentive to make these

0:31:15.280 --> 0:31:18.440
<v Speaker 3>big trucks because they sell them and they're very profitable

0:31:18.480 --> 0:31:21.000
<v Speaker 3>to the highest profit margin products they have. So the

0:31:21.720 --> 0:31:24.960
<v Speaker 3>US auto companies have very little financial incentive, economic incentive

0:31:25.440 --> 0:31:28.320
<v Speaker 3>they switched to evs. Now it's the government's gonna, you know,

0:31:28.480 --> 0:31:30.520
<v Speaker 3>incentivize you to do so or force you to do so.

0:31:30.600 --> 0:31:32.280
<v Speaker 7>Well, that's another whole thing.

0:31:32.360 --> 0:31:34.920
<v Speaker 3>But I think as most auto investors, they were just concerned,

0:31:34.960 --> 0:31:37.720
<v Speaker 3>do I want to own a company where you know,

0:31:37.800 --> 0:31:40.640
<v Speaker 3>their incentives are not really aligned with maximizing profits.

0:31:40.680 --> 0:31:41.400
<v Speaker 7>So often see.

0:31:42.880 --> 0:31:46.720
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:50.360
<v Speaker 2>weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

0:31:50.400 --> 0:31:53.120
<v Speaker 2>Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

0:31:53.280 --> 0:31:56.360
<v Speaker 2>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

0:31:56.760 --> 0:31:59.480
<v Speaker 2>Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:32:00.800 --> 0:32:01.440
<v Speaker 7>Let's switch gears.

0:32:01.520 --> 0:32:03.719
<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about real estate, commercial real estate. We love

0:32:03.720 --> 0:32:05.320
<v Speaker 3>to talk about commercial real estate because I have no

0:32:05.440 --> 0:32:07.640
<v Speaker 3>idea what's going on. I know I've made the mistake

0:32:07.640 --> 0:32:09.680
<v Speaker 3>in the past thinking commercial real estate's office, but that's

0:32:09.720 --> 0:32:11.800
<v Speaker 3>only like three and a half percent of readesks to talk.

0:32:11.720 --> 0:32:12.440
<v Speaker 11>About the malls.

0:32:12.560 --> 0:32:12.760
<v Speaker 7>I know.

0:32:12.960 --> 0:32:15.280
<v Speaker 3>I know Rich Hill, he joins us. He's had of

0:32:15.320 --> 0:32:18.560
<v Speaker 3>real estate strategy and research at Cohen and Steers. Before that,

0:32:18.680 --> 0:32:20.440
<v Speaker 3>he was at Morgan Stanley with all those other Morgan

0:32:20.480 --> 0:32:23.080
<v Speaker 3>Stanley real estate crazy people, which they just have owned

0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:26.240
<v Speaker 3>real estate across Wall Street my entire career at Ward Stanley.

0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:28.240
<v Speaker 3>So those are the folks that get it done. Rich

0:32:28.280 --> 0:32:29.920
<v Speaker 3>thanks so much for joining us here in our studio.

0:32:30.760 --> 0:32:33.040
<v Speaker 3>I mean, where do you go in commercial real estate today?

0:32:33.040 --> 0:32:34.360
<v Speaker 7>I know there are different silos.

0:32:34.960 --> 0:32:37.040
<v Speaker 3>Where do you guys think the best opportunities are these days?

0:32:37.120 --> 0:32:37.720
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, maybe we.

0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:41.120
<v Speaker 11>Can just take a step back. It has been a

0:32:41.280 --> 0:32:45.240
<v Speaker 11>really tough two years for commercial real estate, but we

0:32:45.480 --> 0:32:49.200
<v Speaker 11>think the market is finally in the process of bottoming.

0:32:49.960 --> 0:32:53.400
<v Speaker 11>There's been three price in disease that we follow pretty closely,

0:32:53.600 --> 0:32:56.440
<v Speaker 11>all of which showed increases for the first time in

0:32:56.480 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 11>more than two years in recent months. So valuations down

0:33:00.960 --> 0:33:04.280
<v Speaker 11>more than twenty percent, and that doesn't happen very often.

0:33:04.520 --> 0:33:06.640
<v Speaker 11>You go back to the early nineteen nineties in the GFC,

0:33:07.120 --> 0:33:10.480
<v Speaker 11>those are the only two times evaluations have fallen. So

0:33:10.800 --> 0:33:14.200
<v Speaker 11>it's getting people pretty excited again. I will note, though,

0:33:14.280 --> 0:33:16.880
<v Speaker 11>before I talk about the opportunities, we think the cycles

0:33:17.000 --> 0:33:19.400
<v Speaker 11>playing out sort of in textbook fashion. What do I

0:33:19.480 --> 0:33:22.640
<v Speaker 11>mean by that? Well, list it reached trough first, they

0:33:22.720 --> 0:33:26.400
<v Speaker 11>troughed about a year ago. Then private valuations trough twelve

0:33:26.440 --> 0:33:29.160
<v Speaker 11>months later. But there's a really important point here. See

0:33:29.200 --> 0:33:32.520
<v Speaker 11>our debt distress. So distress in the debt markets doesn't

0:33:32.560 --> 0:33:35.280
<v Speaker 11>peak out for twelve to twenty four months after property

0:33:35.320 --> 0:33:38.760
<v Speaker 11>valuations trough out, So the headlines are actually going to

0:33:38.800 --> 0:33:40.640
<v Speaker 11>get worse before they get better. You're going to be

0:33:40.680 --> 0:33:44.840
<v Speaker 11>talking about office valuations being down, borrowers given the keys

0:33:44.880 --> 0:33:48.000
<v Speaker 11>back to lender. That's what happens at this point in

0:33:48.040 --> 0:33:48.480
<v Speaker 11>the cycle.

0:33:49.080 --> 0:33:51.560
<v Speaker 5>So what if you're looking at valuations bottoming but you

0:33:51.720 --> 0:33:53.560
<v Speaker 5>know that this distress is still going to be coming.

0:33:53.600 --> 0:33:56.120
<v Speaker 5>That's still got to be a really tricky position. If

0:33:56.160 --> 0:33:59.880
<v Speaker 5>the equity valuation is maybe looking more appealing, but you're

0:34:00.000 --> 0:34:02.160
<v Speaker 5>worried about the death side coming back to bite you.

0:34:02.560 --> 0:34:06.760
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, so commercial real estates inherently elever a class. What

0:34:06.880 --> 0:34:08.920
<v Speaker 11>do I mean by that, Well, there's very few people

0:34:08.960 --> 0:34:11.160
<v Speaker 11>that buy a property and don't put some level of

0:34:11.239 --> 0:34:13.800
<v Speaker 11>debt on it. So the availability of debt and the

0:34:13.920 --> 0:34:18.000
<v Speaker 11>cost of debt is super super important. We are beginning

0:34:18.080 --> 0:34:21.600
<v Speaker 11>to see signs of thawing in the debt markets. I'm

0:34:21.640 --> 0:34:23.560
<v Speaker 11>gonna get really wonky here for a second, but we

0:34:23.640 --> 0:34:27.040
<v Speaker 11>follow something called the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey quarterly.

0:34:26.920 --> 0:34:31.920
<v Speaker 6>Sur We love that survey. We don't have to call

0:34:32.000 --> 0:34:32.319
<v Speaker 6>this loose.

0:34:32.600 --> 0:34:33.439
<v Speaker 11>I do too loose.

0:34:33.520 --> 0:34:37.320
<v Speaker 6>On the loose, I'm sorry, this is the place to

0:34:37.360 --> 0:34:37.920
<v Speaker 6>go wonky go.

0:34:38.080 --> 0:34:38.279
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:34:38.920 --> 0:34:43.160
<v Speaker 11>So, look, what we've seen is that that metric is

0:34:43.239 --> 0:34:45.680
<v Speaker 11>turning less bad, and it has been for several quarters

0:34:45.760 --> 0:34:48.879
<v Speaker 11>right now. The last observation, it's set around twenty five

0:34:48.920 --> 0:34:51.439
<v Speaker 11>percent of lenders or tightening lending standards. That still sounds

0:34:51.520 --> 0:34:54.080
<v Speaker 11>like a lot, but at the tightness of the market

0:34:54.160 --> 0:34:55.600
<v Speaker 11>it was almost seventy.

0:34:55.320 --> 0:34:57.400
<v Speaker 6>Percent, So it's entering SVB.

0:34:59.040 --> 0:35:03.400
<v Speaker 11>Shortly on the heels of SPHEEDBA. Lenders get more conservative

0:35:03.440 --> 0:35:05.880
<v Speaker 11>on the heels of things like that, So we are

0:35:05.960 --> 0:35:07.439
<v Speaker 11>seeing things turn less bad.

0:35:08.160 --> 0:35:08.719
<v Speaker 7>Believe it or not.

0:35:08.960 --> 0:35:11.680
<v Speaker 11>One of the largest CMBs deals that has been done

0:35:11.719 --> 0:35:14.160
<v Speaker 11>in quite some time. A three billion dollar deal by

0:35:14.200 --> 0:35:16.560
<v Speaker 11>the way back by a New York City office building

0:35:17.000 --> 0:35:19.640
<v Speaker 11>was just done last week. So things are beginning to

0:35:19.760 --> 0:35:23.120
<v Speaker 11>thaw here a little bit, which I think is a

0:35:23.200 --> 0:35:25.040
<v Speaker 11>sign of why the market's beginning to bottom.

0:35:25.760 --> 0:35:28.880
<v Speaker 3>Warehouses and stuff like that. That's the one that's been

0:35:28.960 --> 0:35:31.279
<v Speaker 3>ripping over the last several years. Has that played out?

0:35:31.320 --> 0:35:32.600
<v Speaker 3>I mean, do you see where do you find.

0:35:32.520 --> 0:35:33.120
<v Speaker 7>Value these days?

0:35:33.160 --> 0:35:36.719
<v Speaker 11>So here's here's a remarkable statistic that no one believes me.

0:35:37.320 --> 0:35:40.760
<v Speaker 11>Industrial rates or warehouse rates are the worst performing sector

0:35:40.960 --> 0:35:44.360
<v Speaker 11>of listed roats this year. They're down around four percent

0:35:44.480 --> 0:35:48.120
<v Speaker 11>or so, almost five percent probably as of today, while

0:35:48.160 --> 0:35:50.040
<v Speaker 11>the market is up more than ten percent, the listed

0:35:50.080 --> 0:35:53.359
<v Speaker 11>remark is up ten percent. Why is that happening? Well,

0:35:54.120 --> 0:35:56.440
<v Speaker 11>what the market's telling you, well the public markets are

0:35:56.480 --> 0:35:59.279
<v Speaker 11>telling you, is that long term growth is going to

0:35:59.360 --> 0:36:02.959
<v Speaker 11>mean reverted. So this is an asset class that has really,

0:36:03.040 --> 0:36:05.720
<v Speaker 11>really strong fundamentals. We think it's a great asset class.

0:36:06.120 --> 0:36:09.080
<v Speaker 11>But guess what commercial real estate developers do in a

0:36:09.160 --> 0:36:11.839
<v Speaker 11>market like that, They build new supply. So we think

0:36:11.880 --> 0:36:14.640
<v Speaker 11>supply for such demand is going to equiliberate over time,

0:36:14.719 --> 0:36:17.640
<v Speaker 11>and that will bring long term growth down. And that's

0:36:17.680 --> 0:36:20.120
<v Speaker 11>exactly what the list of remarket's telling you about. So

0:36:21.360 --> 0:36:22.840
<v Speaker 11>that's a long way of saying, we don't think the

0:36:22.920 --> 0:36:26.200
<v Speaker 11>past cycle winners are going to be the next cycle winners.

0:36:26.680 --> 0:36:28.640
<v Speaker 6>How about the office space right now? How would you

0:36:28.719 --> 0:36:29.200
<v Speaker 6>describe that?

0:36:30.760 --> 0:36:35.880
<v Speaker 11>Still challenged, but it's starting to get maybe a little

0:36:35.920 --> 0:36:38.839
<v Speaker 11>bit interesting. I was in the Pacific Northwest last week

0:36:39.200 --> 0:36:41.800
<v Speaker 11>and client asked me, what do you think you're what

0:36:41.880 --> 0:36:43.719
<v Speaker 11>do you think the best performing asset types are going

0:36:43.800 --> 0:36:45.960
<v Speaker 11>to be over the next ten years? And I told

0:36:46.000 --> 0:36:47.680
<v Speaker 11>them I was like, I sort of want to put

0:36:47.800 --> 0:36:50.480
<v Speaker 11>office at the top of that list. The problem is

0:36:51.200 --> 0:36:53.160
<v Speaker 11>it might go lower before it goes higher. I don't

0:36:53.160 --> 0:36:55.279
<v Speaker 11>know if it's a good entry point today, tomorrow, next week,

0:36:55.360 --> 0:36:58.399
<v Speaker 11>or next year. But valuations are starting to get really, really,

0:36:58.480 --> 0:37:02.840
<v Speaker 11>really interesting. I'll give you three green shoots that we

0:37:03.000 --> 0:37:08.520
<v Speaker 11>look at. First family offices, ultra high worth family offices

0:37:08.560 --> 0:37:10.640
<v Speaker 11>that can take more than a ten year view, like

0:37:10.680 --> 0:37:13.160
<v Speaker 11>one hundred year of view are beginning to step in

0:37:13.640 --> 0:37:17.160
<v Speaker 11>and buy office properties because the basis is so attractive.

0:37:17.239 --> 0:37:20.160
<v Speaker 11>They haven't seen the basis like that in decades and decades.

0:37:20.440 --> 0:37:22.759
<v Speaker 11>So that's point number one point number two. I just

0:37:22.800 --> 0:37:25.239
<v Speaker 11>talked about how industrial reads or the second or the

0:37:25.320 --> 0:37:28.440
<v Speaker 11>worst beforming sector of listed reads this year. Guess what

0:37:28.719 --> 0:37:32.160
<v Speaker 11>office is the second best? So the market has sort

0:37:32.200 --> 0:37:33.640
<v Speaker 11>of brought them back from the dead. And then I

0:37:33.719 --> 0:37:36.160
<v Speaker 11>talked about the green shoots that we're starting to see

0:37:36.480 --> 0:37:39.440
<v Speaker 11>very selectively in the lending markets for office. So we're

0:37:39.480 --> 0:37:42.400
<v Speaker 11>still cautious, but I think there's going to come a

0:37:42.480 --> 0:37:45.880
<v Speaker 11>time pretty soon, and I say pretty soon call it

0:37:46.000 --> 0:37:48.920
<v Speaker 11>next twelve to twenty four months where you're going to

0:37:49.000 --> 0:37:51.400
<v Speaker 11>look back and you're gonna say, hey, I wish I

0:37:51.400 --> 0:37:53.680
<v Speaker 11>would have stepped in because it was a really good

0:37:53.719 --> 0:37:55.640
<v Speaker 11>buying opportunity. It's a long way of saying someone's going

0:37:55.680 --> 0:37:56.399
<v Speaker 11>to make a ton of money.

0:37:56.520 --> 0:37:56.719
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:37:56.760 --> 0:37:57.200
<v Speaker 7>Absolutely.

0:37:57.200 --> 0:38:01.400
<v Speaker 3>I mean my personal barometers, just like anything on Third Avenue.

0:38:01.440 --> 0:38:03.200
<v Speaker 3>When I see like the Lipstick building or something like

0:38:03.280 --> 0:38:05.680
<v Speaker 3>that trade at forty cents on the dollar or something,

0:38:05.719 --> 0:38:06.640
<v Speaker 3>I was saying, that's the boss.

0:38:06.719 --> 0:38:08.160
<v Speaker 6>What with the wolfgangs? Are you kidding?

0:38:08.200 --> 0:38:10.480
<v Speaker 7>I don't know, think about this, think about this.

0:38:10.560 --> 0:38:12.120
<v Speaker 11>Are you adding to bet against New York City?

0:38:12.520 --> 0:38:12.680
<v Speaker 7>Yeah?

0:38:13.160 --> 0:38:14.640
<v Speaker 3>I don't know what hard press to do that way

0:38:14.640 --> 0:38:16.920
<v Speaker 3>we've seen that we've seen that movie before. Richell, thank

0:38:16.960 --> 0:38:19.520
<v Speaker 3>you so much for joining us here in our studio. Richell,

0:38:19.719 --> 0:38:22.160
<v Speaker 3>he's head of real estate strategy and Research at Cohen

0:38:22.600 --> 0:38:22.960
<v Speaker 3>and Steers.

0:38:23.040 --> 0:38:25.000
<v Speaker 7>Joining us here on our Bloomberg Interrupt approp for Studio.

0:38:25.239 --> 0:38:29.759
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:38:29.960 --> 0:38:32.839
<v Speaker 2>and anywhere else you will get your podcasts. Listen live

0:38:32.960 --> 0:38:36.319
<v Speaker 2>each weekday, ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

0:38:36.640 --> 0:38:40.000
<v Speaker 2>b iHeart Radio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App.

0:38:40.160 --> 0:38:43.160
<v Speaker 2>You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

0:38:43.400 --> 0:38:45.120
<v Speaker 2>and always on the Bloomberg Journal