WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Neil Dutta & Jeff deGraaf

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, A.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea, I'll be quick. A terrific news day,

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<v Speaker 2>and thank you so much to the team for our

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<v Speaker 2>coverage of the breaking story on gambling with that press

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<v Speaker 2>conference in the ten o'clock hour with the FBI and

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<v Speaker 2>Judicial Downtown. Just an extraordinary story on high high stakes gambling,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess is what I would call it our high

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<v Speaker 2>stakes today, were to have in the studio together Jeffrey

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<v Speaker 2>de Graph and Neil Dudda. They are Renaissance Macro. Neil

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<v Speaker 2>Dudda my Economist of the Year two years ago or so,

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<v Speaker 2>with this huge optimism, much more cautious now. Neil Dudda

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<v Speaker 2>of Renaissance Macro. He's watching housing right now.

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<v Speaker 3>We have sort of a housing centered view of the

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<v Speaker 3>world out and I think what's interesting is, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>interest rates have been coming down, but you haven't really

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<v Speaker 3>seen housing demand improve in any meaningful way. And to me,

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<v Speaker 3>that's sort of a yellow flag on the outlook. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>builders seem to have sort of hit their pivot point

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<v Speaker 3>on margins, and I think that's going to mean less

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<v Speaker 3>construction activity, and I think that's going to bleed into employment.

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<v Speaker 3>I do and if you start seeing construction workers, let

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<v Speaker 3>go in an environment where you're not really creating much

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<v Speaker 3>jobs growth to begin with, I think that's sort of

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<v Speaker 3>another potential source of upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

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<v Speaker 3>So I would, I do think the FED is a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit behind here. You know, the fact that they're

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<v Speaker 3>kind of taking a meeting by meeting approach as opposed

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<v Speaker 3>to just giving guidance into the first half of next year,

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<v Speaker 3>I think is a little you know, it's a bit

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<v Speaker 3>of a mistake.

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<v Speaker 2>An important comment there. And of course, in the comments

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<v Speaker 2>of Christopher Waller at the Console on Foreign Relations last week,

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<v Speaker 2>he had an overt sentence with the speech calling for

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<v Speaker 2>numerous race cuts. Dare I say four or five traditional

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<v Speaker 2>rate cuts, Neil Dunna dragging in Jeffrey de Graph as

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<v Speaker 2>well of renmac looking at the markets, looking at trends

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<v Speaker 2>that are out there. With Jeffrey de Graph, we went global.

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<v Speaker 4>There's a global bull market happening, right. So all the

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<v Speaker 4>concern about tariffs and I get it, I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we all know it that just is not is not

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<v Speaker 4>resonating with markets which are saying there's something else here

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<v Speaker 4>that's happening, right, And this isn't this isn't just the

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<v Speaker 4>G seven or even the G twenty. Look at the

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<v Speaker 4>frontier markets, they look fabulous, right, So I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>to put the narrative on it. We try not to do.

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<v Speaker 4>We're trying to be purest and how we look at

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<v Speaker 4>things in the world. Now, I'm a little concerned about gold.

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<v Speaker 4>We entered bubble territory, but the rest of it looks

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<v Speaker 4>pretty good to us. So look, I'm in the camp

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<v Speaker 4>that we get a consolidation. But if Neil's world ends

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<v Speaker 4>up developing, I think that's extraordinarily bullish for EQUI.

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<v Speaker 2>Together in studio Neil Gutta and there Jeffrey de Graph

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<v Speaker 2>of Renaissance at Macro. It's a podcast on Apple, on

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<v Speaker 2>Spotify and look at YouTube podcast as well. It's single

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<v Speaker 2>best idea.