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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Live on Bloomberg TV and radio. As we still, as

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Speaker 2: we are pretty much every day, are keeping track of

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Speaker 2: the latest when it comes to terrors after President Trump,

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Speaker 2: of course, today floated the idea of an eighty percent

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Speaker 2: tariff on China, much lower than the current one hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty five percent cumulative rate, seeming right, leaving it

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Speaker 2: up to the Treasury Secretary Scott Besson as he makes

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Speaker 2: tracks to Switzerland for talks alongside the US Trade Representative

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Speaker 2: Jamison Greer with China that begin tomorrow, and we're trying

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Speaker 2: to get as much insight as we can into the

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Speaker 2: thinking of this administration around trade ahead of that meeting,

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Speaker 2: in the aftermath of the framework agreed to between the USA,

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Speaker 2: US and the UK yesterday, and we got some of

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Speaker 2: that from Peter Navarro earlier on Bloomberg Surveillance. He's White

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Speaker 2: House Director of the Office of trade and manufacturing policy,

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Speaker 2: and he had this to share with our colleagues.

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Speaker 3: All we're doing is trying to level the playing field.

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Speaker 3: I saw the EU kind of rattling Sabers. I think

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Speaker 3: it was yesterday about some kind of retaliation, and I

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Speaker 3: would just say to anybody who's in the European Union,

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Speaker 3: I mean, how how can you look at us in

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Speaker 3: the face and threaten us when your tariffs are higher?

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Speaker 3: You have lost cases repeatedly at the WTO on US

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Speaker 3: selling you things like beef and poultry, and you won't

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Speaker 3: even honor that.

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Speaker 4: So yesterday the President called Ursula Vonderline fantastic, and he

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Speaker 4: said he hopes to meet her. But are you saying

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Speaker 4: that the European Union is not as high on the

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Speaker 4: priority list than say, other trading partners like the brand Japan.

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Speaker 3: Not at all. I mean the EU to be clear here,

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Speaker 3: we have the second highest trade deficit with the EU,

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Speaker 3: behind China, so they're very high on the list. All

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Speaker 3: I'm saying here is that I thought I found it

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Speaker 3: unfortunate that the EU kind of fired I think some

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Speaker 3: term was fired shots.

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Speaker 5: Across our bow.

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Speaker 3: It's like retaliation will not work against the United States.

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Speaker 3: We shouldn't have that. Let's talk, let's figure this out,

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Speaker 3: and it would be nice here. Let's give piece a

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Speaker 3: chance here. All we're asking for here in the United

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Speaker 3: States of America is fairness. I mean, would you agree

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Speaker 3: is there any disagreement on this set and on your

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Speaker 3: set that the tariffs of the EU are higher, and

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Speaker 3: that the non tariff bearers are higher, and that the

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Speaker 3: w t O in Geneva is basically sanctioning that through

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Speaker 3: twodays one is the but but would.

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Speaker 6: You agree with that fact check? There? There's a bigger

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Speaker 6: question here. There's a bigger question here, and this is

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Speaker 6: something that the German Finance Minister has come out and

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Speaker 6: talked about, which is they'd be willing to drop all

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Speaker 6: tariffs to zero. If the US were willing to drop

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Speaker 6: all tariffs to zero, there is a willingness to negotiate

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Speaker 6: aground the board to a lower tariff regime. Would that

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Speaker 6: be acceptable to you?

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Speaker 2: Or is ten percent?

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Speaker 3: So let's stay with that. See that's such a misdirection. Okay,

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Speaker 3: it's the non tariff barrier. Stupid to kind of paraphrase

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Speaker 3: Bill Clinton, It's like, it's the non tariff barriers. So

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Speaker 3: when countries like Vietnam or entities like the EU say

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Speaker 3: to us, oh, let's all go to zero tariffs and

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Speaker 3: everything will be okay. That's not the problem. It's part

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Speaker 3: of the problem. But the bigger problem is the non

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Speaker 3: tariff barriers in Europe. It's the vattax.

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Speaker 2: So Peter Navarro choosing to focus on non tariff barriers

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Speaker 2: rather than the question around this ten percent baseline teriff

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Speaker 2: f eight that still remains, which is what my colleague

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Speaker 2: Lisa Bramo It's was asked about, and we actually heard

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Speaker 2: from the White House Press Secretary Caroline Levit about that

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Speaker 2: she's still briefing the press from the briefing room as

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Speaker 2: we speak, saying she had just heard from President Trump

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Speaker 2: that he is determined on that ten percent tastes like

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Speaker 2: baseline tariff, that he is committed to it. So I

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Speaker 2: guess there's your answer, at least for now. She also,

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Speaker 2: of course, was asked about the President's musing on true

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Speaker 2: social Today's suggesting that eighty percent was a tariff level

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Speaker 2: on China. That seems right. This is how the Press

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Speaker 2: secretary addressed that.

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Speaker 7: The President still remains with his position that he is

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Speaker 7: not going to unilaterally bring down tariffs on China, we

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Speaker 7: need to see concessions from them as well. And again

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Speaker 7: that's part of the reason that Secretary Besson is going

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Speaker 7: to talk to his Chinese counterparts this weekend to start

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Speaker 7: those discussions in person. As for the eighty percent number,

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Speaker 7: that was a number the President through out there, and

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Speaker 7: we'll see what happens this weekend. And always in the

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Speaker 7: effort of transparency, I'm sure you'll hear directly from the

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Speaker 7: Treasury Secretary or the President.

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Speaker 2: And as we wait to hear from the Treasury Secretary

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Speaker 2: or the President, we hadd a voice of experience here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Nazac Nakoktar is with me.

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Speaker 2: She's National Security Practice group lead at Wiley Ryan former

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Speaker 2: Assistant Secretary for Industry and Analysis at the International Trade

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Speaker 2: Administration as well, And Zach, welcome back to Bloomberg TV

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Speaker 2: and Radio. As we consider this number that was thrown

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Speaker 2: out there, to paraphrase the words of the Press Secretary

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Speaker 2: today by President Trump, that the tariff right on China

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Speaker 2: be brought from one hundred and forty five percent down

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Speaker 2: to eighty percent. Even at that level, what does that

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Speaker 2: really fix? What trade can realistically happen with tariff still

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Speaker 2: that high.

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Speaker 8: Great to be with you again, that's an really important

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Speaker 8: number because when we look at our trading relationship with China,

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Speaker 8: we have two key issues. We have massive market access

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Speaker 8: barriers to exports of goods and services into China, and

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Speaker 8: then we have China's distored command style economic system where

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Speaker 8: the government holds every possible lever of the economy, including

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Speaker 8: you know, raw material, electricity, land, labor, certainly prices to

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Speaker 8: underprice the United States. And what I've found out through

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Speaker 8: my twenty five years of experience dealing with trade with

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Speaker 8: China representing domestic industries, so Chinese goods are typically valued

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Speaker 8: at about sixty seventy percent in many instances less than

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Speaker 8: the US products. So yeah, I think the President, if

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Speaker 8: he needs to point to numbers to justify his eighty percent,

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Speaker 8: I don't think he's going to have to look far

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Speaker 8: farther than looking at China's market access barriers and China's

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Speaker 8: level of underpricing that is aided and embedded by the

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Speaker 8: Chinese government pulling these levers of the Chinese economy to

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Speaker 8: underprice US. So he's at its essentially actual level of minefield.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if you see justification for that number. Do you

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Speaker 2: have confidence that they are actually could walk away from

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Speaker 2: talks in Switzerland tomorrow at a number like that given

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Speaker 2: your best experience in dealing with China on trade issues.

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Speaker 2: Are they going to be a willing partner in these

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Speaker 2: conversations here in Azaka? Do you think tangible outcomes are

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Speaker 2: possible in the short term?

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Speaker 8: Look, I think I think it's the Chinese press, the

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Speaker 8: president or secretary busn't and ambassador's career on the eighty percent.

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Speaker 8: It's going to be easy for them for the US

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Speaker 8: administration to justify it, but I don't want to. There's

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Speaker 8: it's impossible to over estate how difficult these negotiations are

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Speaker 8: going to be. The US is looking for the Chinese

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Speaker 8: government to not only open up the markets for US businesses,

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Speaker 8: but really to reform their economy so the US market

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Speaker 8: doesn't have to deal with these distortions that arise from

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Speaker 8: the Chinese government intervening so much in the economy, including

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Speaker 8: currency manipulation to under price. But it's going to be

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Speaker 8: very difficult to press for that because the Chinese government

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Speaker 8: needs that to become to stay retain its position as

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Speaker 8: the global manufacturer. So what we ask for the Chinese

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Speaker 8: government may not be able to give. And so the

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Speaker 8: big question for a secretary Veston and ambassador career is

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Speaker 8: where do you find compromise and can you find compromise

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Speaker 8: at all? The Chinese are pretty much going to, I think,

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Speaker 8: stand firm on what their demands are, which are continued

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Speaker 8: access to the US market and technology transfer from the

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Speaker 8: US to China, and those are things that the administration

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Speaker 8: might not be too keen to give.

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Speaker 2: Well, on your point about the kind of manufacturing over capacity,

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Speaker 2: the flooding of global markets with Chinese supply, this is

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Speaker 2: not a unique idea to this administration. We heard plenty

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Speaker 2: about this during the Biden administration as well. This is

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Speaker 2: something that the Treasury Secretary then Janet Yellen, was incredibly

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Speaker 2: focused on. But is the difficulty with that in particular

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Speaker 2: and not just an hour asking China to make kind

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Speaker 2: of structural changes to the economy as you described, also

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Speaker 2: that the US can't necessarily force that alone. When China

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Speaker 2: has plenty of other buyers you may be willing to

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Speaker 2: take that supply. Is it that the US actually needs

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Speaker 2: other countries to cooperate with this effort, Because when I

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Speaker 2: spoke to the Commerce Secretary Howard Letnink about this yesterday.

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Speaker 2: He kind of pushed back on the idea that they're

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Speaker 2: asking that of other countries to counter China.

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Speaker 8: That's a great question, and you hit the nail on

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Speaker 8: the head. Look, the dynamic is when China floods the

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Speaker 8: global markets with chief goods, right, and steel and aluminum.

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Speaker 8: That's kind of when the world started waking up the

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Speaker 8: China's over capacity. But now we have autos, we have semiconductors,

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Speaker 8: optical fiber cables, the list goes on. Right. What happens

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Speaker 8: there is that it collapses global prices, and then producers

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Speaker 8: and other markets can't sell in their markets, can't sell

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Speaker 8: in markets abroad, so then they end up redirecting their

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Speaker 8: product to the United States. Which is why the tariffs

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Speaker 8: that the President had imposed on steel and aluminum, in

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Speaker 8: part just to put the wall around the United States

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Speaker 8: prevented us from feeling that effect of China's gloat over capacity. So,

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Speaker 8: on one hand, the Secretary Vestment is right, and on

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Speaker 8: the other hand, there's a counter argument. One if we

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Speaker 8: just put barriers around ourselves to sort of shield us

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Speaker 8: in the United States from overcapacity, does that kind of

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Speaker 8: take care of the problem. Yes, and we saw that

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Speaker 8: example was steel and aluminum. But at the end of

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Speaker 8: the day, we can't have our allies markets collapse either

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Speaker 8: by virtue of China's over capacity, because it's having the

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Speaker 8: same effect on our allies that it is on the

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Speaker 8: United States. So it's really incumbent on the United States

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Speaker 8: to kind of give them top cover to be able

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Speaker 8: to push back. The thing I want to really emphasize

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Speaker 8: is that when we impose the steel and aluminum tariffs,

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Speaker 8: many of our allies started getting getting flooded with cheap

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Speaker 8: Chinese steel and aluminum, so they started directing safeguards around

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Speaker 8: their borders to shield themselves from China's overcapacity. So I

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Speaker 8: think we're going to get there. It's really incumbent on

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Speaker 8: us to give our allies cover so they could do

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Speaker 8: the same and push back on China. Well.

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Speaker 2: One ally, the UK now has a framework at least

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Speaker 2: trade agreement with the US that does include taking down

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Speaker 2: tariffs on steel and aluminum in particular, as well as

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Speaker 2: kind of other sectoral elements, including this one hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: auto quota where the tariff rate is only ten percent.

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Speaker 2: And I wonder what you make of that framework we

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Speaker 2: learned about yesterday, knowing there's still details that need to

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Speaker 2: be filled in a zaka. And if you see that

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Speaker 2: as being a kind of reliable blueprint that other countries

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Speaker 2: might look to follow, or just being unique to the

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Speaker 2: UK specifically.

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Speaker 8: It's an important sort of signaling tool, right. I mean

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Speaker 8: there's elements of the deals that are really good increase

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Speaker 8: market access for agriculture in addition to the items you

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Speaker 8: said market access. I think the US government is estimating

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Speaker 8: an increase of five billion dollars still, that the ten

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Speaker 8: percent terraffs remain on most goods from the UK, thattt'll

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Speaker 8: raise six billion dollars in tariff revenue from the United States.

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Speaker 8: UK tariffs on the on the United States drops from

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Speaker 8: five point one percent to one point eight percent. That's

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Speaker 8: a big deal. So there's a lot of good there

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Speaker 8: and I think what the President really wanted to do

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Speaker 8: is was quickly get a deal, a big deal that

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Speaker 8: signal to other countries look a deal with the United

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Speaker 8: States as possible. We don't have to continue to be enemies.

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Speaker 8: Peter who was on just a little bit earlier, Peter

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Speaker 8: Navarrow is right, our allies in Europe. Most of these

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Speaker 8: European countries, if you combine their tariff and non tariff

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Speaker 8: barrier equivalents and converted into a teriffright, it's about thirteen

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Speaker 8: percent on the United States. Before the Trump administration, the

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Speaker 8: teriffras of the United States were about one point six

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Speaker 8: percent applied terraff. So you see this huge disparity. So

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Speaker 8: I think with Trump again, the Trump administration is really

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Speaker 8: at least hoping is signals to the markets, is you know,

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Speaker 8: we want to work with our allies again, and we

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Speaker 8: want to get to trade deals that open up both

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Speaker 8: of our markets. And if we can do that, if

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Speaker 8: we can integrate our economies with those of our allies,

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Speaker 8: now we have a hope of pushing back against China.

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Speaker 8: And let's be clear, Europe doesn't have to rely on

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Speaker 8: the Chinese marketing anymore. Integrate your supply chains with the

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Speaker 8: United States. I think this is what Trump's trying to signal.

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Speaker 8: Integrate your supply chains with the United States. Neither of

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Speaker 8: us are going to be dependent on China, and our

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Speaker 8: economies are going to be stronger. I hope the President

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Speaker 8: can execute that strategy, but we'll see what happens in Switzerland.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, we will now Zach, Thank you so much as

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Speaker 2: always for joining us, and as Zach concoct our national

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Speaker 2: Security Practice Group lead at Riley Ryan Wiley, Ryan and

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Speaker 2: former Assistant Secretary for Industry and Analysis at the International

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Speaker 2: Trade Administration, joining me here on the early edition of

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Speaker 2: Balance of Power.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm E's durn

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Speaker 1: on Apple, Cogway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Very Happy Friday too, you. Happy Friday to everyone. We

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Speaker 2: are on the cusp of the weekend here, although for

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Speaker 2: many in Congress the weekend has already started. They've already

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Speaker 2: left Washington doing so with some major questions still remaining

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Speaker 2: on Republicans' budget reconciliation package that they're trying to pass

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Speaker 2: in the House at least before Memorial Day. A number

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Speaker 2: of outstanding issues still even as we look ahead to

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Speaker 2: two key markups that are scheduled for Tuesday in the

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Speaker 2: Energy and Commerce Committee, which has to make decisions about

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Speaker 2: Medicaid cuts and in the Ways and Means Committee, which

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Speaker 2: is charged with grafting the entirety of the tax portion

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Speaker 2: of this package. That means making a decision on what

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Speaker 2: happens with the salt cap, whether or not the president

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Speaker 2: gets things like no tax on tips or overtime or

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Speaker 2: social security, and maybe whether or not to raise taxes

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Speaker 2: on the wealthy. After Bloomberg's Eric Wasason had a scoop

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Speaker 2: yesterday that the President himself actually talked to the Speaker

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Speaker 2: of the House about raising the raid on those making

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Speaker 2: two and a half million dollars or more for single person,

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Speaker 2: five million dollars for a couple to thirty nine point

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Speaker 2: six percent. I asked the Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik about

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Speaker 2: that proposal last night on balance of power. This is

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Speaker 2: what he told me.

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Speaker 9: The President's trying to make sure he gets no tax

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Speaker 9: on tips, no tax on overtime, overtime, and no tax

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Speaker 9: on social security. And if he says, look the richest Americans,

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Speaker 9: remember he cut it from thirty nine point six to

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Speaker 9: thirty seven. So if he just goes back to what

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Speaker 9: he did last time, you know, I'm in favor of that.

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Speaker 9: I think it's smart as long as it's a redistribution

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Speaker 9: to his priorities of no tax on tips, no tax

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Speaker 9: on overtime, and no tax on social security. I think

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Speaker 9: it's smart.

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Speaker 2: So Lutnik is in favor. But is the President himself

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Speaker 2: actually in favor of this or just willing to tolerate it?

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Speaker 2: Because this is what he said on True Social earlier

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Speaker 2: today quote. The problem with even a tiny tax increase

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Speaker 2: for the rich, which I and all others would graciously

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Speaker 2: accept in order to help the lower and middle income

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Speaker 2: workers is that the radical left democratic lunatics would go

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Speaker 2: around screaming, read my lips the fabled quote by George

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Speaker 2: Bush the elder that is said to have cost him

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Speaker 2: the election. No Ross Perot cost him the election. In

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Speaker 2: any event, Republicans should probably not do it, but I'm

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Speaker 2: okay if they do, so will they? It's on that

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Speaker 2: note we turned to Bloomberg's Eric Wasson as well as

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Speaker 2: Wendy Benjaminson, who's here with me in our Washington, d C.

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Speaker 10: Studio.

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Speaker 2: We find Eric on Capitol Hill, where he spends a

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Speaker 2: lot of his time these days covering Congress for US.

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Speaker 2: And Eric, given that this was your reporting initially that

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Speaker 2: I'm referencing here, this thirty nine point six percent tax

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Speaker 2: rate for a party that by and large is in

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Speaker 2: it to cut taxes, not raise taxes on anyone. Is

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Speaker 2: this actually something that could happen in this House of Representatives?

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Speaker 7: Now?

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Speaker 11: I really don't think so. You would take an enormous

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Speaker 11: push from President Trump if he had come out on

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Speaker 11: truth social and rarely doubled down on what he said

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Speaker 11: privately to the Speaker and pushed them to do it.

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Speaker 11: You know, Trump can move mountains in this party. He's

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Speaker 11: taken over for the party for all attents and purposes.

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Speaker 11: But his ambivalent truth social posts really makes me think

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Speaker 11: this thing is dead. We saw Mike Crapo, is the

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Speaker 11: top tax writer in the Senate, go on the Hugh

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Speaker 11: Hewitts Show and pan this idea. We know most Republicans

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Speaker 11: and leadership positions are against it. I just don't see

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Speaker 11: it happening. That being said, I think the President does

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Speaker 11: have good political instincts. It would play well. The biggest

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Speaker 11: attacks from Democrats will be this is a billionaire tax

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Speaker 11: cut funded by cutting medicaid for the poorest, and that's

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Speaker 11: going to sting them in the midterm elections, I predict.

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Speaker 11: But I don't think the President's going to be able

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Speaker 11: to get that rate increase.

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Speaker 2: And I want to talk about the political calculations here

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Speaker 2: with Wendy as well. But first Eric on this suggestion,

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Speaker 2: and Howard Lutman was kind of speaking to this, that

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Speaker 2: they would consider this because they need to find the

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Speaker 2: money somewhere to fund all of these other tax cuts

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Speaker 2: if it's not going to be raising taxes on the wealthy,

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Speaker 2: and it's also potentially not going to be cutting Medicaid

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Speaker 2: as much as is prescribed the budget for the Energy

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Speaker 2: and Commerce Committee. Where do you come up with that

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Speaker 2: or does that just mean you can't cut all the

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Speaker 2: taxes the president wants.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, it's a tail of two cities, tail two chambers.

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Speaker 11: The House is where the issue of spending cuts is

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Speaker 11: really sailing. You've got a group of conservatives who just

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Speaker 11: really want to see at least two trillion or in

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Speaker 11: some cases one point five trillion in exchange for four

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Speaker 11: trillion in tax cuts. The Senate has given itself permission

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Speaker 11: in its budget to essentially barely cut spending at all,

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Speaker 11: just four billion, and basically use a budget gimmick to

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Speaker 11: say that this is extending the existing tax cuts costs

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Speaker 11: zero dollars because's current policy. At the end of the day,

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Speaker 11: a lot of people up here think that the Senate

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Speaker 11: will get its way. There's not the appetite in the

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Speaker 11: Senate for this type of spending cuts, and the deficit hawks,

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Speaker 11: the excent they are deficit hawks, will just swallow it.

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Speaker 11: In the House, I'm not sure that's the case. It's

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Speaker 11: going to be a protracted fight. But the real problem

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Speaker 11: right now in the House is they can't they can't

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Speaker 11: get the House moderates to sign onto these deep medicaid cuts,

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Speaker 11: and they're going to have to lower their tax appetite.

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Speaker 11: I'm looking at perhaps maybe three or four years only

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Speaker 11: of this no tax on tips and no tax on overtime.

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Speaker 11: They just can't afford ten year package, and maybe everything

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Speaker 11: else gets scaled back to just four years and say

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Speaker 11: you'd have to re elect Republicans in twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 11: to get it extended.

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Speaker 2: Well, and it is the question of whether or not

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Speaker 2: the Republicans can get re elected that's at play here, Wendy,

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Speaker 2: to the point Eric was making. Democrats argument has made

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Speaker 2: they're only trying to cut taxes for the rich. They're

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Speaker 2: going to cut Medicaid. They don't care about lower and

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Speaker 2: middle income people. But if, for whatever reason, even if

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Speaker 2: Eric is a little bit skeptical about this, we end

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Speaker 2: up with a higher tax bracket for those who are

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Speaker 2: millionaires and we don't end up with as steep medicaid cuts.

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Speaker 2: That really makes complicated the messaging of the other side.

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Speaker 12: It does, it does, and Democrats will have their own

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Speaker 12: problems finding the messaging. But there's a lot of chess

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Speaker 12: moving at play here. The sir Donald Trump has been

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Speaker 12: championing hurt his base. It will raise consumer prices for

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Speaker 12: goods made in China, Mexico, things like that, it will

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Speaker 12: raise the cost of American cars, And so he knows

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Speaker 12: he does have good political instincts, and he knows that

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Speaker 12: that has hurt his base voters. So he answers that with, well,

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Speaker 12: but look how populous I am. I'm going to raise

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Speaker 12: taxes on millionaires, which he says he would graciously accept

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Speaker 12: to pay. And we saw evidence in the first term

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Speaker 12: that he doesn't pay the taxes he owes anyway, so

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Speaker 12: you know, who knows if he'll actually pay it. But

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Speaker 12: then he realizes that this may not raise enough money

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Speaker 12: that it puts Republicans in a buind who are in

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Speaker 12: districts with high income earners, and therefore now he's got

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Speaker 12: to sort of back off of it and say I

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Speaker 12: don't really want to do it, but if you want to,

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Speaker 12: I'm okay. And that gives him the cover to not

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Speaker 12: be responsible. It will be look at those crazy House Republicans.

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Speaker 12: They raise taxes on the rich just so I could

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Speaker 12: cut taxes elsewhere.

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Speaker 13: Well.

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Speaker 2: But I feel like we've had this conversation a few times,

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Speaker 2: whether it's the election of a speaker or other matters

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Speaker 2: in the House that ultimately the president, or one bill

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Speaker 2: or two. We've obviously now settled on one big, beautiful bill,

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Speaker 2: but for a while President Trump was leaving things open

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Speaker 2: on that front too. Have we not learned he has

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Speaker 2: to make a decision and enforce it among the ranks

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Speaker 2: of Republicans on Capitol Hill for anything to actually get done.

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Speaker 12: Yes, I mean this the way, as Eric says, the

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Speaker 12: way he has remade the party. He has made it

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Speaker 12: so that he makes every single decision that is coming

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Speaker 12: forward and doesn't leave it to the House Speaker or

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Speaker 12: the Senate majority leader to be able to whip their

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Speaker 12: voters into a bill that they know will pass and

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Speaker 12: will protect them politically. They are only interested in what

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Speaker 12: Donald Trump thinks, and that leaves them in a real bind.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're especially in a bind, Eric, if you're in

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Speaker 2: one of these blue state districts, or maybe a member

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Speaker 2: of the so called Salt Caucus. As we know, the

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Speaker 2: salt cap is very much still up for debate. The

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Speaker 2: Speaker has floated raising it to thirty thousand dollars from

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Speaker 2: the current ten and at least one Salt District member,

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Speaker 2: Nicole Mallya Takis of New York, is suggesting that's a

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Speaker 2: number that she's okay with. My question is is that

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Speaker 2: going to be enough to satisfy everybody else?

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Speaker 11: It's really not. Maley took us was kind of the

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Speaker 11: weakest link in the Salt Caucus block. You know, we

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Speaker 11: saw the five other members, including from New York State,

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Speaker 11: including Mike Lawler, Andrew Garbarino and Nick Loloda being much firmer,

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Speaker 11: and then they were joined by at least Stephanic. Very

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Speaker 11: interesting move by her. She had not been a player

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Speaker 11: on the Salt isssue. There's talk of her running for

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Speaker 11: governor of New York, and she suddenly got in on

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Speaker 11: these meetings where she had been absent before, and then

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Speaker 11: she was part of a statement rejecting the thirty thousand. Yesterday,

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Speaker 11: Young Kim and a very vulnerable publicadd in California also

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Speaker 11: rejected the offer. We haven't heard from Tom Caine, who's

437
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 11: a bit of a silent figure up here on Capitol

438
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 11: Hill of New Jersey, but he's a very salt heavy

439
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 11: district in the western part of the state. I suspect

440
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 11: he's against it, but keeping his cards closer to his chest.

441
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 11: So you know, this is going to continue to be

442
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 11: to negotiated. One thing, we might see this was a

443
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 11: flat thirty thousand. We might see them double it for couples.

444
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 11: You know, there's been a lot of I talk about

445
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 11: the marriage penalty under salt, but you know Young Kim

446
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 11: had come out and said she wants sixty two thousand

447
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 11: for an individual. I think she's much more wealthy district.

448
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 11: So we'll see. You know, they can afford to make

449
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 11: me lose one. But they already know there's certain people

450
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 11: like Thomas Massey who were going to vote no on

451
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 11: any tax bill, and they can only afford to lose

452
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 11: two or three. So it's going to come down to

453
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 11: the wire and the House floor.

454
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: Well, and when we consider these members, in particular Wendy,

455
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 2: I wonder how much leverage they have, knowing that if

456
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 2: they decide not to vote for a tax package at

457
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 2: all and the twenty seventeen cuts are allowed to expire,

458
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 2: there is no cap on salt that could arguably work

459
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 2: better for them at home.

460
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 12: It absolutely could. It would also increase the ire of

461
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 12: Donald Trump. So going back to my earlier point, which

462
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 12: is they're going to have to pass something and they

463
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 12: will have to figure it out. But what every decision

464
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 12: will make is how much political pain can they endure

465
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 12: to deliver to Trump, you know, what he wants. And

466
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 12: if they do cut medicaid or narrow it down, that

467
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 12: is going to cause tremendous pain in the red states

468
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 12: that Trump wants. The salt also hits all those members

469
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 12: that Eric listed, you know, New York and California Republicans

470
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 12: may be thrown out in the midterms, leading to Democratic

471
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 12: members which could flip the majority.

472
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 10: And install his agenda.

473
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 12: So there's like, there's so many layers to every decision

474
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 12: that they're going to make here.

475
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 2: Well, and decisions do still have to be made. Eric,

476
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: just in our final minute here, what's the likelihood that

477
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 2: these markups currently scheduled for Tuesday get punted again.

478
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 11: I don't think they'll be punted, but I think, you know,

479
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 11: we may see a product come out that's less than

480
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,360
Speaker 11: satisfactory to every committee member and some last minute changes.

481
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 11: You know, I'm anticipating, for example, ways it means is

482
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 11: going to meet at two pm on Tuesday. They may

483
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 11: go all night onto the world. It's completely exhausted, and

484
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 11: then spring some compromise deal that we can barely understand,

485
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 11: super complex, full of all kinds of loopholes on us,

486
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 11: and we'll have to digest it. So it's gonna I

487
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 11: think it's gonna be very messy. I also think the

488
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 11: House could vote on it in May and we can

489
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 11: see it fail and then come back. There's going to

490
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 11: be a lot of fits and starts in this because

491
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 11: it's going to be very very hard to get the

492
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 11: near unanimity that they need to pass us package.

493
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 2: Can you sense the excitement in Eric Wasasson's voice here

494
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 2: to have to cover all of this. Eric Waston, Bloomberg

495
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 2: Congressional reporter, thank you so much, alongside Bloomberg Senior editor

496
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 2: Wendy Benjaminson here in Washington, very much appreciated. As we

497
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 2: look forward to the events of next week here in DC,

498
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:50,719
Speaker 2: it's going to be a big one for trying to

499
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 2: advance this massive legislative agenda and get it through Congress.

500
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 2: This Memorial Day is quickly approaching, and we still have

501
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 2: much more ahead here on Balance of Power. Next, Bloomberg

502
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 2: Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno will join me.

503
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 2: We'll turn to our political panel about the new nomination

504
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 2: we got from President Trump last night for the district

505
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 2: attorney in Washington. We'll have more ahead on Bloomberg.

506
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

507
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

508
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

509
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

510
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

511
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 2: I'm Keeley Lines in Washington, and indeed you're listening to

512
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,640
Speaker 2: us on Bloomberg Radio or watching our Bloomberg feed on YouTube.

513
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 2: Happy Friday to you all, and here at Bloomberg. Of course,

514
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 2: we don't consider ourselves to be in the business of

515
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 2: necessarily discussing other media outlets, so please know what I'm

516
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 2: about to say is not a comment around Fox News.

517
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 2: It's simply purely an objective observation about how strong the

518
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: Fox News to Trump administration pipeline continues to prove to be.

519
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 2: Number two of President Trump's cabinets secretaries, the Transportation Secretary

520
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 2: Sean Duffy and the Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Our former

521
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: hosts on Fox News. There are dozens of others who

522
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 2: are either in the President's orbit or in other roles

523
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 2: in the administration who are formally affiliated with Fox and

524
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 2: Fox Business as well, And as of last night, we

525
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 2: have another name to add to the list here. Judge

526
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 2: Janine Piro, who of course was a host up until

527
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 2: yesterday I guess of the five on Fox has officially

528
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 2: been tapped to be the interim US Attorney for the

529
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 2: District of Columbia after the President pulled the nomination of

530
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 2: Ed Martin for the post once it became clear his

531
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 2: climb to Senate confirmation was going to be much more

532
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 2: uphill and steeper than previously thought. Martin's now going to

533
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 2: get a role at the Department of Justice instead. Those

534
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 2: official roles will be the next Director of Weaponization Working

535
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 2: Group Associate Deputy Attorney General and pardon Attorney. So we

536
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 2: want to get reaction to these developments and others, and

537
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 2: turn to our political panel on this Friday. Bloomer Cut

538
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 2: contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with me. Rick,

539
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 2: of course, republican strategist and Stone Court Capital partner. Genie

540
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,199
Speaker 2: democratic analyst and senior democracy fellow at the Center for

541
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 2: the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Welcome to you both.

542
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: Rick would love you to weigh in here, not just

543
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 2: on the idea that Ed Martin's nomination had to be

544
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 2: polled and what that might signal, but that his interim

545
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 2: replacement is once again someone who's face we recognized from

546
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 2: television and one network in particular.

547
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 10: Yeah.

548
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 5: No, this is right out of the playbook by Donald Trump.

549
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,479
Speaker 5: He really likes his team at Fox and as you

550
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 5: point out, has been mining them for his administration. It's

551
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 5: worth noting that a contributor like Genie and I Tulsea

552
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 5: Gabber from Fox is also one of the more notorious

553
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 5: members of the Trump administration. So shout out to contributors

554
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 5: all over the place. But look judged Innen. Yeah, she

555
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 5: is a big sort of celebrity within Fox. But she

556
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 5: had a career as a county judge and as a

557
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 5: prosecutor in Westchester County, New York, which was extremely successful.

558
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 5: I mean, she has got the credits, the capability and

559
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 5: the experience you need to serve in this post. So

560
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 5: it's not just a Fox News analyst or or partsipilatory

561
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 5: a journalist. It's somebody who actually was a prosecutor and

562
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 5: a judge and has a lot of experience here.

563
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 2: So Genie is she qualified.

564
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 13: I have to tell you, Kaylee, Jeanine Piro was my

565
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 13: Westchester County DA for many, many years. Small it's a

566
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 13: small world. Shout out to contributors and das everywhere, you know.

567
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 13: It's just fascinating because one of the reasons that Tom Tillis,

568
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 13: who's really the lynchpin of this entire move from Martin

569
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,479
Speaker 13: to Judge Janine is we call her, was because of

570
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 13: his role primarily in the January sixth incident and also

571
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 13: obviously supporting the pardons of the January six rioters. And

572
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 13: yet if you listen carefully to Judge Janine, and it

573
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 13: really doesn't take to be very careful, but if you

574
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 13: just listen to Fox News. She has said a number

575
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 13: of things that really leave you scratching your head if

576
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 13: you're listening to Tom Tillis, because there's not a lot

577
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 13: of difference between what Martin was saying and what Judge

578
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 13: Janine has said about January six In fact, she's named

579
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 13: in these two big defamation lawsuits, the dominion voting one

580
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,479
Speaker 13: which obviously Fox News ended up settling. Some of that

581
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 13: was about things that she had said on the air,

582
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 13: So that, to me is one of the fascinating areas here.

583
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 13: And yet despite that, Tom Tillis goes on Twitter and says,

584
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 13: you know, this is a great appointment on Judge Janine.

585
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 13: So you know, it's interesting to see how this is

586
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 13: playing out. She seems to be more politically palatable, despite

587
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 13: the fact she's no more independent from Donald Trump in

588
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 13: the White House and her views are very similar to

589
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 13: Martin's on the issue of January sixth.

590
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad she's raising Tom Tillis here, Rick, because

591
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 2: one of the most memorable lines from you I think

592
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 2: we've gotten here on Bloomberg this year was when you

593
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 2: said everybody sometimes wants to be a John McCain and

594
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 2: they end up a Tom Tillis when he notably did

595
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 2: not defy the Republican Party with a few of Trump's

596
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: other nominees earlier this year for higher profile cabinet posts.

597
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 2: What is it about Ed Martin that finally got a

598
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:40,959
Speaker 2: Republican senator to step out of line with the party.

599
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 5: Well, I'm pretty sure he was listening to me and

600
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 5: not thinking about Ed Martin. Right, Look, Sier Tillis makes

601
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 5: the case, And I think it is a differentiator to

602
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 5: judge Jannine that Ed was someone who actually participated in

603
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 5: the h the protests, the march to the Capitol. Reports

604
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 5: have it that he didn't enter the capital, but he

605
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 5: was an activist in the effort, and and and and

606
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 5: then you know, really didn't just comment about it on TV.

607
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 5: You know, he actively represented members and lobbied hard for

608
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 5: their for their for their commutation. So I think I

609
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 5: think you'd have to consider him in a different, different

610
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 5: subset than someone who just comments about it on TV.

611
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 5: But look, I think all these folks in the Senate,

612
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 5: especially as relates to controversial nominations, are feeling their way.

613
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 5: They're trying to think through, you know, how far they

614
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 5: can go. There was a rally around the cabinet initially,

615
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 5: get them in place, do it early, do it historically early.

616
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 5: But I think now you've got some folks who are,

617
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 5: you know, thinking, gee, uh, maybe we maybe we shouldn't

618
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 5: just be a rubber stamp and and and start feeling

619
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 5: our way through some of these nominal who may not

620
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 5: be qualified to serve.

621
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 8: Well.

622
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 2: And when we consider other nominees, I would note, Genie

623
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 2: that it wasn't just Ed Martin's that was pulled. This week,

624
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: Trump also abandoned his original pick for surgeon General in

625
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 2: favor of Casey Means. And I wonder if you see

626
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,479
Speaker 2: that as a signal at this point, when he was

627
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 2: able to get all of his at least highest profile

628
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 2: cabinet level positions filled with record speed, as Rick was

629
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: alluding to, and with relative ease, with the exception of

630
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 2: Matt Gates, does it even matter if he has to

631
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 2: pull them at this point?

632
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 13: You know, I think he feels that. In the case

633
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 13: of Means, he said, you know, look at this was

634
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 13: somebody who came highly recommended by Kennedy, who he trusts enormously.

635
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 13: He said, he doesn't know her well, but based on

636
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 13: what he has heard and the recommendation, he was fine

637
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 13: going with her. But I think it shows in both

638
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 13: cases that the president feels he has other priorities that

639
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 13: are taking precedent over a big fight in the Senate.

640
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 13: That's what it would be about. A confirmation that's on

641
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 13: the edge, you know. And and this Martins one was

642
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 13: going to be on the edge when you look at

643
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 13: some of what had come out about him posting and

644
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 13: praising on his podcast. Somebody who spoke, you know, about

645
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 13: Hitler dressed up as Hitler said horrible things, horribly anti

646
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 13: Semitic things. This was the kind of thing that was

647
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 13: going to come out in the Senate confirmation hearing. And

648
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 13: so does the president really want to waste you know,

649
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 13: political capital on that. Probably not, so you would fight

650
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 13: for those upper level positions. But now he's trying to

651
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 13: he's starting to say he's got other priorities, of course,

652
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 13: number one being getting that reconciliation bill. So I think

653
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 13: that's what we're starting to see here with some of

654
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 13: these other appointments. That's not to say they're not important,

655
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 13: but the president isn't willing to waste a lot of

656
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 13: political capital on them.

657
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 2: And while we're discussing current nominees and nominations. I also

658
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 2: want to talk about a nomination that was made decades

659
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 2: ago that we're reflecting on today, and that was the

660
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: nomination made by then President George H. W. Bush for

661
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 2: David Souter to get a seat on the Supreme Court.

662
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 2: He was thought at the time to be a conservative pick,

663
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 2: and his tenure on the Court maybe proved otherwise. Rick.

664
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 2: He died this week at eighty five peacefully, we understanded

665
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 2: his home in New Hampshire, and I wonder your thoughts

666
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 2: as to how we should be reflecting on that legacy.

667
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, this might have been the greatest surprise in the

668
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 5: last fifty years as far as an appointment under the

669
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 5: Supreme Court. I remember very clearly, as a young Reagan

670
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 5: Conservative thinking, Wow, this is an incredible opportunity to put

671
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 5: a conservative on the Court. And of course, my great friend,

672
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 5: late Signer Warren Rudman picked this one out of his

673
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:55,439
Speaker 5: back pocket from New Hampshire and stunned the world. And

674
00:35:55,840 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 5: when George HW. Bush, President Reagan's vice president, appointed him,

675
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 5: I think people were floored, and it was not a

676
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,919
Speaker 5: shock or a surprise that he wound up being as

677
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 5: moderate a Supreme Court justice as he turned out to be,

678
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 5: but really an amazing period of time. Then we see

679
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 5: a lot of the debates around things like Roe v.

680
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 5: Wade happening. Then that happened in the first Trump administration,

681
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 5: So it is a little bit of deja vu all

682
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 5: over again. But may he rest in peace. A great

683
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 5: servant of the people of our nation, and somebody who

684
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 5: I think, you know, considered the law, you know, the

685
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 5: highest calling in the land, and certainly served honorably.

686
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 2: Well in genie. As we consider his tenure on the

687
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 2: court and his service for nineteen years on the High Court,

688
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 2: are we ever going to see someone like that again,

689
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 2: given how partisan and politically tinged to the court seems

690
00:36:57,719 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 2: to have become.

691
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 13: You know, I don't think so. I think one of

692
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,320
Speaker 13: the things we see in Suitor is a good example

693
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 13: of this is future administrations learn from past administrations, and

694
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 13: in this case, the H. W. Bush administration described Suitor

695
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 13: as the biggest mistake of his presidency. I don't know

696
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 13: if you know that is something that everybody would agree with,

697
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 13: but certainly, you know, he was in a camp like

698
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 13: Earl Warren, you know, Earl Warren appointed and then becomes this,

699
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 13: you know, really really the most liberal lion of the

700
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 13: Supreme Court. Ever in Chief Justice Suitor not quite as impactful,

701
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 13: but certainly in the latter part of the twentieth century

702
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 13: had a big voice on the Court. And so I

703
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 13: don't know that we'll see this. He's also something of

704
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 13: a throwback in so many ways, Kaylee. Here was somebody

705
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 13: who wrote decisions Longhand on pen and paper, famously decried technology.

706
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 13: Here was somebody, they said, every day took a luncheon

707
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 13: plastic bag of a yogurt and an apple to the

708
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,919
Speaker 13: office and ate by himself. And here's somebody who retired after,

709
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 13: as you mentioned, just nineteen years at the young age

710
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 13: of sixty nine, to go back home to New Hampshire

711
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 13: and continue to serve the public there. And so, in

712
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 13: so many ways, also a traditional sort of New Englandish

713
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 13: Republican that you don't see a lot of anymore. So,

714
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 13: in so many ways, a throwback to an earlier era.

715
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 13: And it's sad for me personally, because I don't know

716
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 13: that we're going to see that again, at least in

717
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:34,280
Speaker 13: the near future.

718
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 2: Have we seen, though, rick glimpses of it. In Justice

719
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 2: Amy Coney Barrett, who earlier this year was getting a

720
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 2: lot of flak from the right for multiple times siding

721
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 2: against the Trump administration when she wasn't expected to.

722
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think.

723
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 5: Certainly my experiences, you never really know what you get

724
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 5: with a Supreme Court appointment until they've started ruling. And

725
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 5: I would say not just Amy Coney Barrett, but Brett Kavanaugh.

726
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 5: I think has been a surprise to some conservatives who

727
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 5: thought he would be, you know, a very conservative judge,

728
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 5: and even Neil Gorsitch has surprised some with his ruling.

729
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 5: So I think that this court currently is particularly interesting

730
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 5: because they are not following just a very clear conservative

731
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 5: line every time there's an issue in front of the docket.

732
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 2: All right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino.

733
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,919
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

734
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. He's durn

735
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 1: on Apple, Cockle and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

736
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

737
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

738
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 2: It's another one of those weeks where there's so much

739
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,399
Speaker 2: news that sometimes you don't have enough time to talk

740
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 2: about it all. Like yesterday, for example, we got the

741
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,800
Speaker 2: first post Liberation Day trade or framework between the US

742
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 2: and the United Kingdom, and we got history made in

743
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 2: Rome with the election of a new American pope. And

744
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 2: with those things going on, you'd be forgiven if you

745
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 2: miss the Bloomberg scoop that the Treasury Department was actually

746
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: developing a fast track process for screening foreign investments in

747
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 2: the US through Sciphius, an effort that this administration, the

748
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: Trump administration, expects could smooth the way for billions of

749
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 2: dollars from foreign sovereign wealth funds to come into the

750
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,840
Speaker 2: United States sovereign wealth friends from countries like the UAE

751
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 2: or Saudi Arabia or cutter no coincidence that those happened

752
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 2: to be three countries where President Trump will be visiting

753
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 2: next week as he makes a trip to the Middle East.

754
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,879
Speaker 2: And obviously, in addition to foreign investment, there's a lot

755
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,319
Speaker 2: of other things he is likely to discuss there, and

756
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 2: that's what we want to get into now here on

757
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm pleased to say. Joining me

758
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,840
Speaker 2: is so Gar Shimali. She is now the CEO of

759
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: Greenwich Media Strategies and founder, but also former director of

760
00:40:56,800 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 2: Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council and here

761
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 2: with me in our Washington, d C studio, Hagar, good

762
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 2: to see you as always, Thanks for having me. Obviously,

763
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 2: this is going to be a very big week for

764
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,280
Speaker 2: the President. There is a lot he'd like to discuss

765
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 2: with the UAE and the Saudi's and Cutter specifically, how

766
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 2: should we consider the kind of financial aspect of this relationship.

767
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:20,239
Speaker 2: Is he's courting investment from these countries into the US,

768
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 2: and how that influence is actually the shape of those

769
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: alliances and the positioning of geopolitics in the Middle East.

770
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's such a good question.

771
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 14: No one is framing it that way, by the way,

772
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 14: and because one of the most important pieces of this

773
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 14: is actually an economic route that started under the Biden

774
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 14: administration and is now being continued in the Trump administration.

775
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,720
Speaker 14: One of the real policies actually that's being continued called IMEC,

776
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 14: so something where you're going India, Middle East, Europe, fashioning

777
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 14: this corridor, if you will, to not only encourage economic

778
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 14: trade with all of these continents and locations and regions,

779
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 14: but also a lot of that is about providing becoming

780
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 14: a counterweight to China. So that's going to be a

781
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,279
Speaker 14: lot of the focus of this trip. There are going

782
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 14: to be many things actually that they're going to discuss

783
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 14: that are not economic as well, but a lot of

784
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 14: that too is making sure you're pulling Saudi Arabia from China,

785
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 14: pulling the region away from China, ensuring that as Saudi

786
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 14: Arabia is trying to diversify its economy, they're interested in

787
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 14: all sorts of investments back and forth, and so they're

788
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 14: going to be looking for that. Certainly an increase in

789
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 14: any kind of trade related to defense equipment as well.

790
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 14: That's something that Saudi Arabia struggles with democrats and has

791
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 14: better luck with the Republicans, so they're going to be

792
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 14: talking about things like that as well well.

793
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 2: And for the UAE especially, we know there's kind of

794
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 2: chip considerations as well. Bloomberg has had some reporting on

795
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 2: whether or not the administration is likely to lift chip

796
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 2: restrictions on the UAE in particular. As to your point,

797
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 2: the whole point of that is to try to make

798
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 2: sure those chips ultimately don't find their way to China.

799
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:51,959
Speaker 2: So maybe a lot of this does come back to China,

800
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 2: but a lot of this is about this region as

801
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 2: well in the current environment in the Middle East, when

802
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 2: we consider the engagement we've seen from this administration and

803
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 2: so far with Israel as it relates to the ongoing

804
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 2: conflict in Gaza, with Saudi Arabia, as they look to

805
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 2: expand the Abraham Accords, what really is for Middle East

806
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 2: purposes objective number one for the president? Do you think?

807
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 10: Absolutely so.

808
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 14: There's a lot of wins for the president to achieve

809
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 14: in Saudi Arabia, and one of the ones at the

810
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 14: top of the list is the discussions that would lead

811
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 14: to peace deals, a number of peace deals they want

812
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 14: to They want to increase the Abraham Accords, increase the

813
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 14: countries under the Abraham Accords as much as possible. The President,

814
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 14: and I'm not trying to say this lightly, he is

815
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:39,760
Speaker 14: focused on a Nobel Peace Prize at through the Abraham Accords,

816
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 14: and he's been very clear about that, right. He was

817
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 14: clear about that the first time around and now the

818
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 14: second time around, and a lot of that, A big

819
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:47,799
Speaker 14: chunk of that is really through Saudi Arabia, not all

820
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 14: of the countries, but Saudi Arabia would be a big

821
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 14: one because you'd get a lot of others in its trail,

822
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,400
Speaker 14: and those talks are talks that have already existed, right,

823
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,279
Speaker 14: so they've been going on for a while, really since

824
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 14: the end of Trump's term Trump one points, and so

825
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,399
Speaker 14: that's really they're going to be continuing those talks now.

826
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 14: There are certain things elements of those talks initially that

827
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 14: appears that they're also being pulled out, things like discussing

828
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 14: civil nuclear partnerships, things of that kind that were originally

829
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 14: going to be part of a normalization deal or peace deal,

830
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 14: and it looks as though that might be pulled out.

831
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 14: But nonetheless, I think it'll all be in the context

832
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 14: of getting to a final destination, and that destination being

833
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 14: having Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries under the

834
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:29,760
Speaker 14: Abrahamic Coords.

835
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 2: What timeline do you think is realistic for that? It's visit,

836
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 2: I would imagine is not going to be alone.

837
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 14: In accomplishing that. No, Well, and the Saudis, unlike other countries.

838
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 14: They've made it clear and I don't think that they're

839
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 14: going to backtrack on their insistence that there be the

840
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 14: promise of a Palestinian state. It doesn't mean that one

841
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 14: needs to be necessarily created to recognized, but that there

842
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:55,239
Speaker 14: be some kind of process on to get there, and

843
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 14: that's going to hamper things a little bit. I mean,

844
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 14: if I were a betting woman, it's it's hard to say.

845
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,720
Speaker 14: Maybe twenty twenty seven. I just sometimes I think it'll

846
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 14: be in a year or so, and then other times

847
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 14: there are days where I'm like, we're this is really happening,

848
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 14: and then there are days where I think maybe maybe

849
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 14: another two years.

850
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:11,359
Speaker 8: Yeah.

851
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:13,399
Speaker 2: Well, every day is different around here, that's for sure.

852
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 2: But to your point on there being some kind of

853
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:19,760
Speaker 2: day after long term solution for the Palestinians in Gaza,

854
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 2: where even are we on those conversations on the idea

855
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,919
Speaker 2: of renewing any kind of ceasefire agreement or bringing some

856
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: kind of end to this conflict, because the administration was

857
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,280
Speaker 2: very focused on that, very proud of the deal reached

858
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 2: on the eve of Trump's negotiation, and then what happened.

859
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 14: Yeah, And you know, it's funny. The last time I

860
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 14: was on, which was maybe ten days ago, we discussed

861
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 14: this and there were a number of deals that were

862
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 14: going back and forth, and there was a deal proposed

863
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 14: by the Israelis that was rejected. Then the Egyptians and

864
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 14: Cutteries had come in and we are now really unfortunately

865
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 14: in a spot where we've gone completely backwards. The war

866
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 14: is being actively expanded by Israel in Gaza. It's a

867
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 14: decision by the cabinet, but also more importantly, it was

868
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 14: a decision that very clearly laid out that the hostages

869
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 14: were not being prioritized. There are we don't know, but

870
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 14: we believe between now, we're hearing between twenty one and

871
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 14: twenty four who are alive.

872
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:15,760
Speaker 10: I don't want to make I don't want to make.

873
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 14: Any kind of assertion on this, but anyway, every day

874
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,839
Speaker 14: that passes as a risk for them, and we know that.

875
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 14: And the Cabinet really came out crystal clear and said

876
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 14: we are prioritizing the expansion of this because we don't.

877
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 10: They have Hamas by the neck and they want to

878
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 10: crush them completely.

879
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 14: And I, as account as somebody who worked in counter terrorism,

880
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 14: I want nothing more than to see Hamas obliterated. My

881
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 14: own opinion is I do I'm not sure I understand

882
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 14: why they can't cut a deal, get the hostages released

883
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 14: and then do targeted operations as they have in Lebanon,

884
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 14: for example. But because I'm completely behind the idea of

885
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 14: crushing Hamas completely. But anyway, that's Bibie's very clearly, very

886
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 14: intent on that singular goal.

887
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:57,280
Speaker 2: So what role does the US play in influencing Israel

888
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 2: in any of this? Knowing that Israel also maybe have

889
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,720
Speaker 2: taken a bat by some of the Trump Administration's recent actions,

890
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 2: including declaring a truce with the Houthies seemingly out of nowhere.

891
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 10: Yeah, I was just going to say that.

892
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 14: So, actually, the Israelis, and this I think is a

893
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 14: bit indicative, indicative of how things might go between the

894
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 14: United States and israel Is. The BB has been blindsided

895
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 14: by the Trump administration a number of times now.

896
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 10: So first you.

897
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 14: Had, for example, the talks that were taking place directly

898
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 14: with Hamas on the release of American hostages.

899
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 10: You had, then you have the Iran talks, and now.

900
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 14: You have this deal that the US administration cut with

901
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 14: the Hoothy's where the Houthis have promised not to target

902
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 14: American vessels in the Red Sea. But that's it, just

903
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:43,759
Speaker 14: the American vessels and that deal not only blindsided BB,

904
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,919
Speaker 14: according to press reports, but it indicates it's a it's

905
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 14: very demonstrative of an America first policy, Right, we care

906
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 14: about our vessels we care about our national security objectives

907
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 14: only and what is directly American, and we're going to

908
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 14: pursue that unapologetically. And that makes it difficult. While Bebe

909
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 14: seems to listen to Trump and has a lot of

910
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 14: respect for him, or you know, Trump has a lot

911
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 14: of clout with BB, those kind of efforts are going

912
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:10,919
Speaker 14: to make it more difficult for the US to push

913
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 14: BB where they want.

914
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 2: You raised Iran in that last answer, and I do

915
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:16,479
Speaker 2: want to talk about that as well. As we learned today.

916
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 2: Another round of talks between the US and Iran will

917
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 2: take place this weekend on Sunday, specifically in Oman. And

918
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 2: I wonder how you see progress here because we are

919
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 2: still talking. This is the next round of talks and

920
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 2: what has been a line of them in succession. But

921
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 2: how far still does that put us from actually reaching

922
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 2: some kind of agreement with Iran?

923
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,800
Speaker 14: Yeah, so this one in particular. The thing that I

924
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 14: is I think so important to talk about these talks

925
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:44,840
Speaker 14: is that a lot what I see a lot in

926
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 14: the public discourse out there is that it's just a

927
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 14: repeat of what the jcpoa under prison is thinking.

928
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:51,399
Speaker 2: Wrong.

929
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 10: He's completely wrong, Okay, he's completely wrong.

930
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 14: And I worked on that deal as a spokesburs and

931
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 14: I was Praisury spokesurson at the time. I worked on

932
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 14: that deal when it was happy under person. This is

933
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 14: completely different. This is based on an assessment that Iran

934
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 14: is very close to a nuclear weapon, that that would

935
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:10,240
Speaker 14: fundamentally change things in the Middle East and would trigger

936
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 14: an arms race and completely change our national security problems there.

937
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 10: Then that means that the it inevitably.

938
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:19,359
Speaker 14: Could lead to a military solution, and that these talks

939
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 14: are a last ditch effort. So the talks are last

940
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 14: ditch effort, and unlike the ones with under Obama, they

941
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 14: don't go into the nitty gritty of how many centrifugeons

942
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,759
Speaker 14: can they have, which centrifuges wear in Iran, how much

943
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:32,839
Speaker 14: can those centrifugees operate, how much uranium. No, it's very

944
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:36,720
Speaker 14: singularly focused onnot you Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

945
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 14: There is no timeline there is it's never. If you

946
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:42,720
Speaker 14: don't agree, the US and or Israel or Israel whichever

947
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 14: will bomb those nuclear facilities, and that is a threat

948
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:50,479
Speaker 14: Iran takes very seriously because in October Israel bombed the

949
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 14: defense systems around those nuclear facilities and Tehran and the

950
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,360
Speaker 14: Iranian regime is very weak at the moment, so they

951
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 14: can't risk.

952
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 2: That, so would they agree.

953
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 14: They are in a position where these talks could go

954
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 14: well to agree because they're desperate for a win, given

955
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 14: that they're on the defense and that they want they

956
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 14: need to survive, and that they need sanctions lifted. But

957
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 14: I don't know that everybody across the Middle least is

958
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 14: happy about that. By the way, I don't think the

959
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 14: Saudis are very excited about that. I know that those

960
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 14: who are against working against Hesbala and Lebanon are not

961
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 14: excited about that. They want nothing more be included to

962
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 14: see the Irananguram crushed.

963
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 2: Well, so President Trump could get an earful about this.

964
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 2: He's not just coming to these countries with his own objectives.

965
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 2: They probably have things they want to say to him

966
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 2: in return.

967
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 14: Absolutely, and I think that I believe the Trump administration

968
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 14: from everything I've seen in those I've spoken to, there

969
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 14: is a very large focus on this question of triggering

970
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 14: a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. That is

971
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 14: what incentivized these talks, and you even saw it with

972
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:49,399
Speaker 14: the Vice President Jadie Vance.

973
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 10: He said earlier this week.

974
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 14: Yes, he's hoping that these talks could open the door

975
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 14: for talks with China and Russia to talk about decreasing

976
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 14: their nuclear weapons altogether. That everybody could. That's very by

977
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,359
Speaker 14: the way reagan Esque way of looking at things. It's

978
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 14: a positive goal regardless of what people like me think

979
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 14: would be Ronny regime. And so that's how they're going

980
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 14: to catch it, and they're going to go to Saudi

981
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 14: Arabia and say, listen, this is important, this is a priority.

982
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:16,240
Speaker 14: You need to support us, even if it's quietly behind

983
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 14: the scenes, and let us do this. But I have

984
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 14: no doubt that it will come with some kind of

985
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 14: exchange of some kinds as it did under person Obama,

986
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 14: whether it's defense equipment deals or whatever.

987
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:26,880
Speaker 2: Well, we'll have to look and see how all of

988
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,280
Speaker 2: this pans out next week. Good to see you as always, Haigar.

989
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 2: Thank you for being here. H Gar Shimali, former director

990
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 2: for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council, now

991
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 2: founder and CEO at Greenwich Media Strategies here with us

992
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 2: on Balance of Power.

993
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:44,839
Speaker 11: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

994
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:47,839
Speaker 11: sure to subscribe if you haven't already At Apple, Spotify,

995
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:50,520
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996
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,800
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997
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:55,520
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