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Speaker 1: Billy football started?

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Speaker 2: Football did start?

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Speaker 1: I mean the season ended today. Joe Burrow is the MVP.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if the season ended today, it would be

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Speaker 3: exactly how it always ends for Joe Burrow. It would

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Speaker 3: be Joe Burrow nine of ten, one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 3: three yards, two touchdowns, one fifty seven point five rating,

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Speaker 3: and his team lost by a touchdown to the Eagles

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Speaker 3: because the defense sticks. When are they going to figure

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Speaker 3: things out? In uh Cincinnati? What's going on?

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Speaker 1: What do you mean? Stop playing Joe Burrow in meaningless

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Speaker 1: preseason games?

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow playing Week one of the preseason is it

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Speaker 3: should be a crime. It should be a crime. Someone

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Speaker 3: should go to jail for Joe Burrow playing in game

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Speaker 3: one in the preseason. That's insane.

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Speaker 2: How much are you.

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Speaker 3: Like, what risk reward of that? Why is he playing?

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Speaker 1: Listen? You're right, Anthony Richardson got hurt land night and

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones is now the quarterback for the Colts.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but I mean that was only honestly and this look,

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Speaker 3: this is gonna sound cold and heartless. Whatever they got

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Speaker 3: the first Anthony Richardson injury of the season out of

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Speaker 3: the way in the preseason. You know, because that's coming

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Speaker 3: at some point in time. We know what, but he's

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Speaker 3: gonna get hurt. Daniel Jones going to take over. We

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Speaker 3: might as well get that out of the way week

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Speaker 3: one of the preseason, and then you know, obviously the

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Speaker 3: severity of the injury. We're not making light of the situation,

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Speaker 3: and we hope for a speedy recovery and all that,

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Speaker 3: but it's bound to happen. Get that out of the

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Speaker 3: way in the preseason. Danny Diames will come in, he'll

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Speaker 3: have a game or two, and then you know, when

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Speaker 3: the season starts, Anthony Richardson, hopefully.

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Speaker 2: We'll be back and he'll be your quarterback again.

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Speaker 1: It is odd that Joe Burrow would be out there

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Speaker 1: for that long, like it's preseason game number one. This

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Speaker 1: guy is the most valuable player, certainly on your organization

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Speaker 1: and perhaps in the entire NFL. Why would you risk

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Speaker 1: injury to a guy who's been injured in the past

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Speaker 1: for a pre season game. It doesn't make any sense.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you on this, Billy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't get it. I don't get it. I'm

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Speaker 3: sure everything will turn around though. Oh hey, by the way,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you guys mentioned this earlier this week. But

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Speaker 3: guess who didn't hold out. Trey Hendrickson, surprise, surprise, showed

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Speaker 3: right back up without a deal.

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Speaker 1: You know what it was funny? I was I was

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Speaker 1: driving around. I was listening to ESPN Radio and our

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Speaker 1: old friend Christine Leacy, one of the great update makers

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Speaker 1: of all time. Yeah, she's great. She brings a smile

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Speaker 1: to your face. Billy doesn't sh Yeah. She reported the

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Speaker 1: news about Trey Hendrickson, and I was thinking to myself,

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Speaker 1: Billy said that three weeks ago. I think he's too nice.

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Speaker 1: He's not gonna hold out. He's gonna be a hold

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Speaker 1: in the problem. He's not gonna hold in for long.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna sign a contract, dude that he probably should

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Speaker 1: have signed, because that guy just wants to fucking play football. Man.

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Speaker 1: That's it.

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Speaker 3: Listen, here's the problem, right. We spoke to Trey Hendrickson

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Speaker 3: for maybe eight to twelve minutes at the Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: because those interviews are not very long, and he was

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Speaker 3: a very nice guy. And when he was telling us

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Speaker 3: about the hold on all that stuff. As soon as

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Speaker 3: he left that set, us two got together. We looked

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Speaker 3: and I was like, this guy is not going to

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Speaker 3: be holding out like there's no way that he has

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Speaker 3: it in him. And if I can tell that within

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Speaker 3: eight to twelve minutes, the team that he has been

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Speaker 3: with for years knows immediately like this guy is not

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Speaker 3: going to be holding out. And the longer he holds out,

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Speaker 3: the more fifty thousand dollars checks he's going to have

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Speaker 3: to be riding to us. So if anything, this is

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Speaker 3: good for us. Just let's play this game. Not going

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Speaker 3: to give him the deal he wants. He's going to

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Speaker 3: be back before the season starts, and we're just saving

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Speaker 3: money that way.

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Speaker 1: So you're saying someone new to the Bengals and management

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Speaker 1: has probably gone to somebody and said, hey, we probably

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Speaker 1: should sign this guy. Try he's pretty good. He had

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Speaker 1: a punch of sacks last year. And they're saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: now you don't know Trey the way we know Trey. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: exactly right, waiting game, that's it.

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Speaker 3: Unfortunately, that's exactly right. I think, Yeah, por Tray Portray

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Speaker 3: is right, And he even did the whole thing was like,

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Speaker 3: you know what, we're we're leaving Cincinnati. We're gonna we're

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Speaker 3: going to Florida. We're moving out of Cincinnati. We're not

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Speaker 3: going to be here, and it's like, well, like a

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Speaker 3: week later, I guess you know, he flew right back

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Speaker 3: over there and now he's he's back.

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Speaker 1: Ish. You just can't resist it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I don't blame him. Well, look at us,

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Speaker 3: we're back, we haven't gotten the big paycheck and we're here.

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Speaker 2: How's our holdout?

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Speaker 1: I wish we held that we should have. Well Jalen Milroe, huh,

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Speaker 1: I don't stuw.

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Speaker 4: I was gonna say, did you see Pete Carroll's return

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Speaker 4: to Seattle? A big tie yesterday? Twenty three? Twenty three,

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Speaker 4: twenty three? Yeah, revenge game?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: That tie that tied down the road?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, could help someone.

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Speaker 3: I mean it can't because it's the preseason, but it could,

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Speaker 3: you know.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm fascinated with Jalen Milroe. He

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Speaker 1: was six to ten for sixty one yards, no touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: but he can scoot Billy three carries thirty eight yards.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's preseason, man, its the preseason.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, I mean, but Burrow, how are we

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Speaker 1: feeling about the Raiders this year? I don't know, are

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Speaker 1: the Raiders for real? Is that what we're asking?

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Speaker 4: Way too good of a division yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 1: Like, listen, we're going to talk to Aaron shots here

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Speaker 1: in just a second. He's our buddy. He has the

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Speaker 1: Football Allmanac out again this year, and he factors things

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Speaker 1: like that into the equation the strength of that division.

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Speaker 1: And I'm kind of a tailor. I think Las Vegas

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Speaker 1: is a team that's pretty good, but I don't think

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Speaker 1: they have any shot of winning that division. They're in

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Speaker 1: the same division as Kansas City at Denver Man.

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Speaker 3: I'm feeling good about my Dolphins this year. I feel

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Speaker 3: like Aaron's gonna deliver some good news. Everything has said

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Speaker 3: the opposite, but this is a guy that's not gonna

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Speaker 3: let the outside noise impact this decision. You know what

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Speaker 3: I mean. He's not gonna let Dolphins the talking.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 3: I don't know that he's high on the Dolphins, but

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Speaker 3: I feel like number base, none of those distractions should

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Speaker 3: get in the way of what's actually gonna go on

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Speaker 3: with I'm excited. I feel like if there's anyone to

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Speaker 3: deliver good news about the Dolphins, it's Aaron.

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Speaker 1: Because he lets the numbers do the talking. Right.

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Speaker 3: Well, Yeah, because I saw like USA Today earlier this

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Speaker 3: week did predictions and like Dolphins are gonna be five

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Speaker 3: and twelve, and I was like, not good, No, not

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Speaker 3: something that I want to hear five and twelve.

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Speaker 2: I don't like that.

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Speaker 3: We gotta get a numbers, got to come on here

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Speaker 3: and say, you know what, forget about all the distractions,

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Speaker 3: all the nonsense. Mike McDaniels saying, hey, guess what today,

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Speaker 3: we're one day closer to death, which is the strangest

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Speaker 3: quote ever. I don't know what that was all about.

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Speaker 3: Now we have Tyreek doing Tyreek things. He's there's bullying

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Speaker 3: Jason Sanders saying you better not miss any kicks this year,

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Speaker 3: which we know he's gonna miss kicks this here, let's

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Speaker 3: not be silly boys about this situation. Obviously he's gonna

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Speaker 3: he's gonna miss kicks. And then Jason Sanders says you

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Speaker 3: better not drop any passes this year, and it's just like, okay,

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Speaker 3: all right, guys, just win some football games. Okay, I'm

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Speaker 3: not gonna curse, but just win some games, win some

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Speaker 3: some some d football games. That's damn win some damn foo.

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna curse. Win some damn football games. Already,

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Speaker 3: enough of this non sense circus side show. Ridiculous to

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Speaker 3: us out there. He's doing Trump impressions on the podium.

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Speaker 3: Win some games, okay, enough, already on a president's council.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how I got on the president's How

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Speaker 3: does this work? How do people just get added to

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Speaker 3: presidential councils and not know that they're on them? It's nonsense.

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Speaker 3: Just win some football games already enough. Spend three hundred

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Speaker 3: dollars to frame that to a Jersey's gonna be worthless,

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Speaker 3: not even worth the price of the frame at this point.

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Speaker 2: Good golly.

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Speaker 3: Anyways, Aaron Shatz is joining us. Shots, Yeah, Shots, you'd

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Speaker 3: better tell me something good about the Dolphins. I don't

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Speaker 3: know if you get he'd better give me some good

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Speaker 3: news about the dollars. I can't take my heart, can't

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Speaker 3: take my heart, Aaron, if you're listening, which you're not,

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Speaker 3: my heart can't take any more bad news about this

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Speaker 3: Dolphins team. Lie to me if you have to, as.

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Speaker 1: You were, shots or shots. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Next.

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Speaker 2: I just wized as a Christis jersey in your background.

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Speaker 2: That's great.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Chris Sims a little bit hates me. Yeah, we

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Speaker 3: have him on weekly and he's constantly picking fights with me.

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Speaker 3: It was not easy to find a Chris Simms jersey.

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Speaker 3: I will tell you I had no, Yeah, I had, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it was it was tricky.

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Speaker 2: That's one of those jerseys where you you see it

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Speaker 2: at the stadium and you're like, oh, yeah, that's oh

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Speaker 2: my god really okay? Yeah, well I love that when

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Speaker 2: you go and like the other you know, whoever the

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Speaker 2: visiting team is, the fans come wearing really obscure jerseys.

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Speaker 3: I'm a Marlins fan, so that's basically my entire existence

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Speaker 3: is just jerseys of people like why would you make

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Speaker 3: this jersey? And also this player was on your team

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Speaker 3: for six minutes before my team? Yeah, exactly, jersey.

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Speaker 2: It was a good week.

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Speaker 3: I have a Henderson Alvarez jersey that I bought because

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Speaker 3: I was at his no hitter and I bought it

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Speaker 3: after he was like traded from the team on like

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Speaker 3: one of those team garage sales. And after I bought it,

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Speaker 3: I was like, I really need to be more responsible

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Speaker 3: with my finances.

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Speaker 1: Do you have an odd jersey and your collection?

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Speaker 3: There?

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Speaker 2: Aerin Kim Dwight, Oh, what's I wanted a old school

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Speaker 2: light blue Chargers jersey, right, and I wanted somebody who

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Speaker 2: had also played for the Patriots, Yes, and I couldn't

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Speaker 2: find Rodney Harrison. I ended up with him. I have

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Speaker 2: a Tim Dwhite powder Blue Chargers jersey.

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Speaker 1: It was Rodney Harritt. He's a Hall of Famer. You

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Speaker 1: found Dwight, you couldn't find Harrison.

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Speaker 2: I mean no, I couldn't.

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Speaker 3: Why was it of the utmost importance to get a

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Speaker 3: powder blue Chargers jersey?

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Speaker 2: But the player also had to be on the Patriots

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Speaker 2: Atriots fan But I love the jerseys.

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Speaker 3: Okay, all right, so Tim Dwight.

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Speaker 2: So that's my most I don't have a lot of jerseys,

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Speaker 2: but my most obscure jersey is to Tim Twine.

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Speaker 3: You really had a downturn as a Patriots fan high

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Speaker 3: like what two seasons before You're already kind of looking

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Speaker 3: up again.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, how do you feel?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, you know, listen, hey man, it was a

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Speaker 2: great ride, dude. It was like almost twenty years. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, I grew up in the town next door

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Speaker 2: to Foxborough, so I remember the row rust gears and

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Speaker 2: stuff like nineteen ninety one. Come on that. It was horrifying. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: like it's been so good for twenty years, Like we

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Speaker 2: don't deserve you know, we can have a couple of off years.

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Speaker 3: It's fine, No, but you're headed I feel like you're

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Speaker 3: headed back up. I mean you will tell me how.

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Speaker 3: The analytics might tell you that's not the case. But

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Speaker 3: I feel like, as the layman, you're in the right direction. Again, Well,

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Speaker 3: there's no Yeah, you had like one or two down seasons.

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Speaker 1: Right, And he's still listen, He's still pointing to the

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Speaker 1: nineteen nineties after he went on a twenty year up

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Speaker 1: president and Brunt, I mean, what do you.

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Speaker 2: I'm just saying that, you know, we deserved it. We

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Speaker 2: went through a lot of garbage.

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Speaker 1: Yeah you did, but they paid you back at Space.

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Speaker 2: I mean, oh my god, totally. Oh. I have no complaints.

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Speaker 2: If they never win another Super Bowl as long as

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Speaker 2: I live, I feel like we've still done it pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Shots is with us. He is the CEO FTN

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Speaker 1: Fantasy ESPN, NFL analyst. He joined us. Every year Billy's

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Speaker 1: Almanac is out. His annual Almanac is out. Get closer

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Speaker 1: to football. There it is, look at it.

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Speaker 2: Cred edition wasn't easy to find.

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Speaker 3: It took a little bit. Aaron as a fellow, I'm

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Speaker 3: not I'm not as a fellow print head.

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Speaker 2: Right, last year's print edition.

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Speaker 3: All, yeah, this year's a bit pricey.

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Speaker 2: No, it's it's on Amazon. If people search for FTN

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Speaker 2: Football Almanac twenty twenty five, it will come up. But

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Speaker 2: also the PDF is a little cheaper. Ftnfantasy dot Com

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Speaker 2: slash Almanac for the pdf.

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Speaker 3: How do you feel about PDFs? I mean, obviously that's

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Speaker 3: how you put it out, primarily this year, it's easier

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Speaker 3: to get it to the masses. The subscribers can get

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Speaker 3: it instantly. But I like to touch the pages. I

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Speaker 3: like to highlight, I.

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Speaker 2: Like to se taking notes. Yeah, yeah, I like the

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Speaker 2: physical book. When I do like radio interviews and stuff,

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Speaker 2: I'll be like looking things up in the physical book

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Speaker 2: rather than on my screen. Sometimes the problem is I'd

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Speaker 2: like to do a kindle edition. Oh but the tables,

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Speaker 2: all the stat tables don't translate to Kindle, to the

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Speaker 2: way that in Enkindle you can change the font size

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Speaker 2: and stuff. It doesn't work right. It looks weird, so

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Speaker 2: we can't do a kindle version.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to the days where books have a

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Speaker 3: comeback the way vinyl has a comeback. You know, Like

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Speaker 3: enough of these kindles and.

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Speaker 1: These eyeb I tried to save books.

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Speaker 3: You know that exactly right, Oh, Aaron, since the last

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Speaker 3: few came on, Steve Gotts has published a book. I

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Speaker 3: don't know if you're aware of that as a fellow.

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Speaker 2: What's the book?

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Speaker 1: Yes, you got his personal record book. It's a yes,

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Speaker 1: fantastic book. You haven't bought one? I see, I have not.

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Speaker 2: I need to read more books, clearly, or go to

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Speaker 2: the library more.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I purchase your goddamn almanac every single year.

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Speaker 1: You can't purchase a book.

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Speaker 3: Let me see, let me see one of those almanacs

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Speaker 3: you purchased.

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Speaker 1: You, I don't know where I put last year. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and this year didn't arrive in the mail yet.

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Speaker 3: So okay you should. I think that you, as a

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Speaker 3: fellow author, should just send Aaron one as like a

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Speaker 3: professional word to see I will yes, autographed.

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Speaker 2: Oh take it, Philly.

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Speaker 1: He's giving away my books. He gave away my money

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Speaker 1: to Aaron.

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Speaker 2: Shots fired two guests. Wow, you don't even have to think.

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Speaker 3: It's like the same way you wrote the book. He

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Speaker 3: came up with his own like personalization for you and everything.

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Speaker 3: You don't have to do anything but put your name,

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Speaker 3: So Aaron for for dumb dums like me and Stucotts

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Speaker 3: explain DVOA and why.

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Speaker 2: Here's the most simple version. It takes the success of

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Speaker 2: every play based on the down and distance and compares

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Speaker 2: it to a league average that's based on situation and opponent.

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Speaker 2: Above zero is good for offense, below zero is good

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Speaker 2: for defense, zero is average.

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Speaker 1: Billy was headed towards a place where I think he

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Speaker 1: was trying to say, the Patriots are probably going to

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Speaker 1: be better than a lot of people think the consensus right,

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Speaker 1: what are your feelings of the Patriots here this year?

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Speaker 2: We have them in the projections a little worse than

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Speaker 2: the sports books. I think the sportsbooks have them an

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Speaker 2: eight and a half, which is like exactly average. We

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Speaker 2: have them a little lower than that. But I fully

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Speaker 2: admit that there's something we may be missing, which is,

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Speaker 2: you know, the projections are based on history and what

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Speaker 2: normally happens when teams have new coaching staffs. The coaching

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Speaker 2: staff in New England was so over its heads last

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Speaker 2: year that we may be under selling just how much

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Speaker 2: of an improvement this coaching staff is going to break.

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Speaker 2: I mean, all the reports about the idea that Gerrod

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Speaker 2: Meyo didn't even know what days to hold certain meetings,

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Speaker 2: and Alex Van Pelt's offense was really uncreative, and like,

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Speaker 2: this could be such a big coaching staff upgrade that

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Speaker 2: I be underselling the Patriots a little bit.

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Speaker 1: So you feel like Rabel just knowing what he's doing,

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Speaker 1: knowing how things operate, might mean the Patriots just have

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Speaker 1: a better year just by that fact the load.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not even like whether oh is Rabel a

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Speaker 2: good coach? Do we know if Rabel is a good coach.

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Speaker 2: We've only seen him coach one team, which was the Titans.

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Speaker 2: But my god, he's probably going to be so much

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Speaker 2: just by being average. He would be so much better

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Speaker 2: than Mahil.

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Speaker 1: What are your feelings on Drake May.

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Speaker 2: I love Drake May, super talent, super talent obviously in

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Speaker 2: a really bad situation last year, and I don't know

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Speaker 2: if the offensive line it'll be better this year. I

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Speaker 2: don't know how much better it'll be, but right now

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Speaker 2: I think, coming out of last year, I would rather

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Speaker 2: have Drake May than Caleb Williams.

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Speaker 1: Wow, that's interesting. Why I just.

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Speaker 2: Feel like with Caleb Williams, so much of the problem

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Speaker 2: is his inability to feel pressure and have a clock

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Speaker 2: in his head, and I just don't know if that's fixable.

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Speaker 2: Even with the improved in of their offensive line and

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Speaker 2: with Ben Johnson calling the plays and everything, I don't

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Speaker 2: know if you can fix the clock in his head.

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Speaker 1: That's interesting. What's the team, Maaron that most people think,

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Speaker 1: the consensus thinks is going to be really good, but

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Speaker 1: you guys say, hey, hold on a second, not going

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Speaker 1: to be as good as you guys think.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's a couple of them. The first is the

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Speaker 2: Chargers were really down on We really see their defense regressing,

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Speaker 2: although some of that, you know, maybe Jesse Minter is

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Speaker 2: such a good defensive coordinator that that won't happen. And

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Speaker 2: the offense, the receivers are I don't know what Keenan

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Speaker 2: Allen has left. It's really just one guy, which is Mconkie.

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Speaker 2: The other one that's being really controversial, and I'll fully

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Speaker 2: admit this is totally controversial, is we just don't think

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Speaker 2: the Philadelphia Eagles are as dominant as people think they are. Like,

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Speaker 2: they're still a very good team. We have them projected

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Speaker 2: top ten in all three phases of the game, but

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Speaker 2: closer to eighth than to first because it's one of

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Speaker 2: the things we talk about every year. Offense is more

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Speaker 2: predictable and consistent than defense. And that team was so

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Speaker 2: driven by such a great defense last year, and they

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Speaker 2: lost a lot of veteran guys, So you're expecting them

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Speaker 2: to play just as good on defense despite all the changes,

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Speaker 2: And we don't know how some of these young guys

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Speaker 2: are going to react. It's more likely that they're like

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Speaker 2: the fourth or fifth best defense instead of the number

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Speaker 2: one defense. And with a hard schedule, they have the

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Speaker 2: second hardest schedule that's going to bring them down.

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Speaker 1: Are they the best team in their own division?

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Speaker 2: We actually have Washington slightly ahead of them.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 2: We think Washington can have an average defense this year,

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Speaker 2: and we like their offense to still be very good.

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Speaker 2: And then even if there's no difference between those two teams,

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Speaker 2: which I mean, that's a controversial idea itself, the idea

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Speaker 2: that the Eagles are as good as the Commanders, the

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Speaker 2: schedule is very different between them. The three games that differ.

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Speaker 2: The Eagles have to play the Bills, the Rams, and

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Speaker 2: the Buccaneers out whereas the Commanders play the Seahawks, the Dolphins,

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Speaker 2: and the Falcons. That's a big difference.

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Speaker 1: It's a major difference. You're right. Do you ever look listen.

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Speaker 1: I know it's all based on analytics and facts, but

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Speaker 1: do you ever just watch Jalen Milroe play and say

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Speaker 1: that fucking guy is going to be a stud.

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Speaker 2: I haven't seen that much of Milroe, partly because I

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Speaker 2: don't watch that much College to Fall. Saturday's kind of

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Speaker 2: my day off. I know about his talent, like, the

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Speaker 2: running talent is huge, and I don't know, you know,

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Speaker 2: if he can. The throwing talent is there in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: But I mean, he's a pretty talented dude.

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Speaker 1: He is. Who's the team that a lot of people think,

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Speaker 1: the gondsensus thinks is going to be really bad, But

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Speaker 1: you guys think, hey, hold on a second, going to

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Speaker 1: be better than you guys think.

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville, Oh Billy.

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Speaker 3: This Trevor Lawrence, make or break already, Aaron, I'm so

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Speaker 3: sick of hearing about Trevor.

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Speaker 2: It is kind of make or break. It is make

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Speaker 2: a break. I keep quoting this, so I apologize for

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Speaker 2: whoever's joke this was that I'm stealing. But somebody before

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Speaker 2: the Bills and Jaguars played last year said it's time

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Speaker 2: for my two favorite quarterbacks, Josh Allen and the idea

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Speaker 2: of Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 3: How long is this guy's rope going to be?

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Speaker 2: Honestly, look, if Liam Cohen and having Travis Hunter and

404
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Speaker 2: Brian Thomas as receivers can't bring out an above average offense,

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Speaker 2: then you have to start questioning things. Absolutely, but I

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Speaker 2: think it can.

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Speaker 1: All right, sir, why jackson So why Jacksonville? Explain that?

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Speaker 2: I think their defense will improve. They were last in

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Speaker 2: the league. I believe last year in turnovers per drive

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Speaker 2: that is going to regress towards the mean. I think

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Speaker 2: their offense can improve with Liam Cohen, with Travis Hunter.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we don't know. It's the biggest and most

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Speaker 2: fun question of the year, right is Travis Hunter? What

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Speaker 2: are we doing here? Man? Like it's gonna either be

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Speaker 2: awesome or it's going to be a train wreck. I

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Speaker 2: don't know what it's gonna hap with him, but it's

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Speaker 2: great to watch. They have an easier schedule than Houston.

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Speaker 2: I think Houston's defense will come back to the pack

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Speaker 2: a little bit, so we actually like Jacksonville. I think

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Speaker 2: they're only an average team, but that's still better than

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Speaker 2: people think they are. And it's probably good enough to

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Speaker 2: win that division.

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Speaker 4: Aaron I saw a stat by Dvoa that the two

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Speaker 4: best five year runs for a team without a Super

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Speaker 4: Bowl appearance in NFL history, it's the Baltimore Ravens the

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Speaker 4: past five years and the Buffalo Bills the past five years.

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Speaker 4: Which team do you think is more likely to win

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Speaker 4: a Super Bowl this year?

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Speaker 2: I like the Bills over the Ravens. Now, It's interesting

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Speaker 2: the projections have the Ravens as the better team, but

431
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Speaker 2: the Bills with more average wins in our simulations, because

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Speaker 2: the Bills have a very easy schedule and the Ravens

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Speaker 2: have a kind of average schedule. But also they play

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Speaker 2: each other in Week one, and that game is in Buffalo,

435
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,199
Speaker 2: and that is enough of an advantage to make the

436
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: Bills more likely to get the number one seed and

437
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 2: have the home field advantage of the playoffs, which means

438
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 2: an another game in Buffalo. That's the thing, man like,

439
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 2: I feel like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are both

440
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 2: good enough to get over the hump, but only one

441
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 2: of them can do it, right.

442
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 3: Do you have a stat that translates well to on

443
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 3: field success but doesn't translate well to like fantasy success?

444
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 3: Because like you have the season predictions, how you think

445
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 3: the teams are going to do, then you also have

446
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 3: FTN fantasy. So I guess where is there not overlaping.

447
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,159
Speaker 3: This is going to be someone who's really good, but

448
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 3: I won't see it in this other aspect of what

449
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 3: we do.

450
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 2: I mean obviously defense and certain players that are very

451
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 2: efficient but don't have a lot of usage, right, Like

452
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 2: so much a fantasy is about usage. Man, you got

453
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 2: to get the carries, you got to get the receptions. Also,

454
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 2: so many leagues now are point per reception that guys

455
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 2: that get a lot of long catches but not as

456
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 2: many just raw reception totals get kind of underrated by

457
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 2: fantasy because because they don't get that point per reception.

458
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 1: Arab, Where do the Chiefs fall into the mix this year?

459
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 1: And your projections in the AFC, we.

460
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 2: Have them as the number four team in projected DVOA,

461
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 2: so that would be third in the AFC behind Buffalo

462
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 2: and Baltimore, which I think makes sense. I think they're

463
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 2: going to be better than last year, but without as

464
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 2: much luck they're not. I mean the stuff that happened

465
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 2: to them with weird bounces and stuff last year. One

466
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 2: of the things we say in the book. It's almost

467
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 2: like they were trying for some weird video game achievement

468
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 2: where you can win a number of games in weird

469
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 2: ways and then you get like a Golden Star or

470
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 2: something like. They just won in so many weird ways,

471
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 2: and that's not going to happen again. But they're probably

472
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,400
Speaker 2: going to be better because they're going to have Hollywood

473
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 2: Brown and Roschi, Rice and xamer Worthy with a year

474
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 2: of experience all at the same time. Even though Kelsey's

475
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 2: getting old, man, Kelsey's getting old is.

476
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 4: I was looking at ftn's Super Bowl chances to get

477
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,120
Speaker 4: to the Super Bowl, and there's some teams like the Colts,

478
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 4: the tight Ends and the Giants that range from like

479
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 4: zero point one percent to like zero point two percent,

480
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 4: and then there's the Panthers.

481
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: He's so impressed that you have. You have poured over

482
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: this information, my friend, go ahead.

483
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 4: The Panthers, the Jets, the Saints, and the Browns. Mis

484
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 4: graphic here zero percent, so there's zero percent chance that.

485
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 2: Well those are round it, I mean it's rounding. They

486
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 2: have a chance.

487
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 1: I prefer the Jets and is zero percent chance. And

488
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 1: that's well done by you. Okay, there's still.

489
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 2: A chance, but it's really remote.

490
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 3: Zero point zero.

491
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 2: The Saints are the worst team in the NFL because

492
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 2: they have no hope. At least the Panthers have hope, right,

493
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 2: Like the Saints have no hope.

494
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,920
Speaker 1: It seems like they have equal hope. I mean, you're

495
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 1: giving them both a zero percent chance of winning it

496
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 1: now because.

497
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 2: There's more upside with Bryce Young than there is Tyler.

498
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: Right, so you round it up the Giants zero point

499
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 1: one percent.

500
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 3: Uh, I mean ru It has a better chance.

501
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 2: That sense of line Abduel carter Man, you know. I

502
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 2: mean they may have a defense if you if.

503
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 1: You are doing.

504
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 3: They don't, but that point one percent they may.

505
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 2: Well also like ninety they do, but their offense is

506
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: so bad that.

507
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 1: It Yeah, I think San Francisco has to be worse

508
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 1: this year than they've made in years past. Am I wrong? Yeah?

509
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 2: We have I have looked so very high. Yeah, we

510
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 2: like San Francisco this year. They were fourteenth last year

511
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 2: in DVA despite being six and eleven, and now they're

512
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 2: much healthier, and yeah, they lost some dudes on defense,

513
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 2: but they're much healthier. Like, yeah, I U won't play

514
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 2: for the first few weeks. But there's a lot of

515
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: in Kyle Shanahan. We trust his offense is just when

516
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 2: they have the health, they're always really good. Scott's.

517
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 3: I took notes on DVOA to kind of try to

518
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 3: explain it to you, and Aaron can correct me if

519
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 3: I'm wrong as to how DVOA works, so that you

520
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 3: would understand.

521
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 1: Okay, thank you.

522
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 3: So dv OA league average is zero zero percent. Is

523
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 3: that so far, so good?

524
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: Aaron? Yep. Okay.

525
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 3: Then a good team's offense is over zero percent. A

526
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 3: good team's defense is under zero percent, okay, Stecotts. In

527
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three, the best offense was thirty one point

528
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 3: eight percent. More or less, the best defense was negative

529
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 3: twenty three point three percent. Best offensive teams are usually

530
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 3: around thirty percent. Best defensive teams are usually around negative

531
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 3: twenty percent. Is this helpful for you, Secotts? So if

532
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 3: I were to tell you, for example, Baltimore had a

533
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 3: negative twenty three point three percent DVOA defense, you would

534
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 3: just say that's good or bad.

535
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 1: I would say that's terrible, that's.

536
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 3: Good, that's that's the best negative twenty three point three

537
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: more of a visual guy.

538
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, then I found out for individual play, and I

539
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 1: say that fucking guy's gonna be great.

540
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 3: Okay, so individual players, then then we'll go to individual stats.

541
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 3: For individual players, the best offense is around forty percent

542
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 3: for passing and receiving and around thirty percent for rushings. Right,

543
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 3: So if I were to tell you, like Genti ends

544
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 3: up having like a twenty eight percent DVOA season, you'd

545
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:10,360
Speaker 3: say that's good or bad.

546
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 1: I would say, that's that's decent.

547
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 3: That's good, it's a good is like great learning. And

548
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 3: that league average for passing isn't zero percent, it's higher.

549
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 3: League average for rushing is lower than zero percent, So

550
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 3: the average rusher is less than zero percent. As this

551
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 3: geer picks up for you at all.

552
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 2: The best rustles for this are Passing is generally better

553
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 2: than rushing, right, And the best offenses are generally better

554
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 2: than the best defenses.

555
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: Huh So offense wins championships.

556
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 2: More more than defense. Offense, Yeah, if you sort of

557
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 2: if you were to like split a team into the parts,

558
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 2: it would be four parts offense, three parts defense, one

559
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:53,360
Speaker 2: part special teams.

560
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,880
Speaker 1: We should start that this year, a new saying offense

561
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: wins championships. Sure, let's let's do that shots feel see

562
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: feel free to steal it if you want.

563
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,719
Speaker 3: I mean, yea off, is there any chance? Is there

564
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 3: any chance? Maybe in next year's almanac? So just a

565
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 3: couple of things. One I see that you had on

566
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 3: last year's You had Mina, like a little blurb Mina

567
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 3: on the cover and she was kind of endorsing it

568
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 3: and saying how great it is. On the back, you

569
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 3: had other people saying what a useful tool it is.

570
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 3: I'd like to offer on his behalfs do Gots to

571
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 3: write up something for you for your next year's take it?

572
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 2: You can endorse it, and we like to rotate those

573
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 2: little blurbs.

574
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 3: I also maybe as like an addendum or something that

575
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 3: we just put in there somewhere, maybe like the last page,

576
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 3: just a stew Gots created stats, so we don't have

577
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 3: to put it for every team, but like we'll spend

578
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 3: a year creating a stat We'll come up with a

579
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 3: formula and then he could just give percentages or whatever.

580
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,959
Speaker 2: Make it like hardcore fullback blocks or something.

581
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: I want to make it like gut gut.

582
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 3: Oh okay, all right, and then is it going to

583
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 3: be individual team ranked the gut?

584
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: I'll do both I'll do individuals and.

585
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 3: Teams, okay, So I'm going to try to keep them

586
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 3: honest on that, and you know, get him to stick

587
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: to this. Come up with a formula to get you

588
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 3: for next year's edition a gut where you'll have that

589
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 3: for individuals and players, and then we'll also get a

590
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 3: sentence or two that you can put. It doesn't have

591
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 3: to be the front cover, maybe the back cover, but

592
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 3: Stugotts will endorse it.

593
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, I'll take it. Okay, Billy, I like this.

594
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 1: I like you negotiating. I might be half creating more

595
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: work for me.

596
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: Harball. Right now we have the quote from John Harbaugh

597
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 2: is the main quote on the front cover? What was that?

598
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 3: Just out of curiosity?

599
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: Yeah. As FTN incorporates factors that others don't, leading to

600
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 2: quality and nuanced stats. They're a helpful resource for anyone

601
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 2: to think deeper and smarter around football.

602
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: John Harmon, See what's the key in that ingredient? Like,

603
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 1: is there a factor the factor that you're using no

604
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: one else's.

605
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the opponent adjustments is a big

606
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 2: one that other people also trying to make it so

607
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 2: it's more predictive by lowering the importance of certain things

608
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: that are more random, like fourth downs and like turnovers steguts.

609
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 3: Your quote can be very simple, like, for example, last

610
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 3: year's edition, Peter King was one of the people who.

611
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: Had a quote.

612
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: It just said exhaustive, enlightening, surprising in many cases, and

613
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 3: an absolute must read if you like the NFL. Now, yes,

614
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 3: I have no indication that Peter King read any of

615
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 3: this by saying that, but he put it on there

616
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: and we have it. Bill Simmons wrote a book that

617
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 3: any self respecting NFL fan needs to purchase. You could

618
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 3: very easily have one of these quotes to gouts.

619
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 1: Yeah without reading the book, is what you're saying. I mean,

620
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: I would like to read. Listen. Do you think Joe

621
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: Buck read my book? There's a blurb from Joe Buck

622
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: on the Beast. Think he read it? I don't think.

623
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 3: I don't think he wrote it.

624
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: He sent it to me via text.

625
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: I've done lobs. You read a few pages and then

626
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 2: you come up with something.

627
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I am on it. Aaron, I promise you.

628
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: He is the CEO of FTN Fantasy and ESPN NFL Analyst.

629
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: His almanac is fantastic and it's out right now. You

630
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: can purchase it at Ftnfantasy dot com. Slash Almanac and

631
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: print copies are available on Amazon right now. I am

632
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: big Aaron on the Broncos. Is it justified? I think

633
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 1: the Broncos and bow Knicks are going to have a

634
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: big year.

635
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 2: Yes, I think it's justified. The surprise about the Broncos

636
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 2: was Bo Nicks in the first few weeks was the

637
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,479
Speaker 2: dude we all thought he was coming out of college

638
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 2: where everything was like sideways and everything was behind the

639
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage. And then they discovered throwing downfield. And

640
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 2: it's not even like he's got great receivers other than

641
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: Courtland Sutton, but Nick's ended up with a good year.

642
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: And then that defense is fantastic and it was not

643
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 2: overly dependent on turnovers, which means the defense is more

644
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 2: likely to stay good than defenses that are overly dependent

645
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: on turnovers. So yes, we like Denver this year.

646
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 1: If you were a betting man, based on everything you've seen,

647
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 1: what's a team that doesn't have you know, it's it's

648
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: not one of the favorites to make it to the

649
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Yet you're not going to be surprised if

650
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: that team does make it. To the super Bowl.

651
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay.

652
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: Wow, good value.

653
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 2: I think Tampa Bay is good and too many people

654
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 2: believe that Tampa Bay basically just gets a buy into

655
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 2: the playoffs because their division sucks. But there are some

656
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 2: pretty good players there and if they can you know,

657
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 2: another new offensive coordinator, so hopefully they can run the

658
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 2: offense well, get the most out of Baker Mayfield and everything.

659
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 2: But guys like Evans, if Chris Godwin is fully healthy,

660
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 2: there's good defensive players there. I think that they could

661
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 2: definitely surprise people.

662
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 1: Wow, they're like plus three thousand right now just to

663
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: make it to the super Bowl.

664
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 2: I mean, my favorites to make the Super Bowl are

665
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 2: everybody else's right, like Detroit and you know, Baltimore and.

666
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: Blow Yeah, but those are the easy picks I'm looking for. Yes,

667
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: how about in the AFC? Is there a.

668
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 2: Team I guess the biggest surprise win in the AFC

669
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: would be Denver? Denver, Yeah, if you wanted to, if

670
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 2: you weren't going to go with the Big Three, if

671
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 2: it wasn't going to be Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, what's

672
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: the most likely team to make it out of the AFC?

673
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 2: I would say Denver.

674
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 4: Aaron, how do you feel about the Houston Texans, Because

675
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 4: it felt like going into last year, everybody was kind

676
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: of riding that CJ. Stroud wave and then he didn't

677
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 4: have as good a year I think as people hoped.

678
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 4: But now going into year three, where are you at

679
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 4: with them?

680
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 2: I don't know if they've fixed the offensive line? Right.

681
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 2: The problem wasn't Stroud, it was the offensive line, and

682
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 2: they've brought in a lot of guys that they're kind

683
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 2: of hoping maybe can be guys. But I mean, they

684
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 2: got rid of their best linemen, so who knows what

685
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: they're going to get. And the same thing that's true

686
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 2: of the Eagles is true of the Texans, which is

687
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 2: that offense is more consistent than defense. They were the

688
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 2: number two defense last year, so again, not as likely

689
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,959
Speaker 2: to be as strong on defense, even with the same players, right.

690
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not saying that they aren't a lot

691
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: of really talented guys like Will Anderson, Derek Stingley and everything.

692
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: It's just defense is just less consistent.

693
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: How are the Dolphins looking to you guys this year?

694
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 2: We were talking about this on our podcast yesterday we

695
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 2: do the shots in Taniar NFL Podcast on Thursdays and

696
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 2: with Mike Tanier, and he feels like there's a chance

697
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 2: they're going to completely collapse. Like there is some non

698
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 2: stats stuff going on with this team. First of all,

699
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 2: like Mike McDaniel sounds like he's seen the like edge

700
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 2: of the universe and he's like and he's it's foreboding.

701
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 2: And Tua and Tyreek Hill don't seem to get along,

702
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 2: and then Tyreek's having all these issues and then I

703
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 2: have no idea who plays corner I mean, I do

704
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 2: know who plays cornerback for them, but none of them

705
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 2: seem to be very good. I don't you know. They

706
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 2: traded their one good cornerback and then cater Cooho got hurt,

707
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 2: and so yeah, I think they're going to be kind

708
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 2: of average, but there's a possibility that they're a big,

709
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 2: gigantic mess.

710
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: Wow. How's it feel, Billy?

711
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: I mean, not great so far.

712
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 3: Every all the quotes you see out of camp. I

713
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 3: saw the post yesterday from McDaniel was like Tua and

714
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 3: Tyreek seemed to really start. They're really starting to get

715
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 3: each other. It's like, yeah, it's been four years they

716
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 3: this should have been the case. Two has really grown

717
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 3: into the leader on this team, Like, yeah, in his

718
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 3: fifth season, he's been a captain for like three years already, Like,

719
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:29,359
Speaker 3: what is going on here? I don't understand this, Mike McDaniel. Aaron,

720
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 3: let me ask you. This is a not stat based opinion,

721
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 3: Mike McDaniel. At what point did it go from Wow,

722
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 3: this guy's a genius to this guy's kind of kooky,

723
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 3: Like I'm not sure he has.

724
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 1: It all this year? Yea, and he started losing last year.

725
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 2: So here's the big thing I thought. First of all,

726
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 2: it seemed like teams kind of figured out their scheme

727
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 2: a bit last year.

728
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 3: And there was no plan for There's no evolution of it,

729
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 3: I don't think.

730
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 2: And the other was when you see what Matt Lafloor

731
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: in Green Bay was able to do with Maleik freaking

732
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 2: Willis has his backup quarterback, and then you look at

733
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 2: what Miami does with backup quarterbacks, which is nothing. You

734
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 2: start to question McDaniel's ability to like come up with

735
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 2: an offense for people other than two, which is a

736
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 2: problem when you have a quarterback who have concussion issues

737
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 2: and misses a couple of games every year.

738
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 1: Who do you think is the best offensive mind in football?

739
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 1: Right now, is it Kevin O'Connell.

740
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 2: It's either Ben Johnson or Kevin O'Connell or McVeigh.

741
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 1: Wow, well, feels so bad for Billy. I mean I

742
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,280
Speaker 1: shouldn't because my team has zero point zero present chance,

743
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: but I do feel bad for you.

744
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, I'm worried.

745
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 2: I'm worried. The numbers say that Miami will be averaged.

746
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 2: The numbers like Miami a little bit better than New England,

747
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 2: but the vibes coming out of that camp suck.

748
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 3: Not good vibes.

749
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 2: I'm worried. It's it's it's gonna be.

750
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 3: I feel like this is gonna be another loss for

751
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 3: like the you know, short, small, nerdy guy head coach

752
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 3: fraternity we had Stay.

753
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 2: That part of me is like, oh, he's like us,

754
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 2: come on, McDaniel.

755
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,399
Speaker 3: I mean, you know what's going to happen. We had

756
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 3: Staley kind of flame out. McDaniel's trending in that direction.

757
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,439
Speaker 3: We're a coaching cycle away from Cower and Belichick coming

758
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 3: back like.

759
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,879
Speaker 2: That when I need it more. Dan Campbell's guys who

760
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: understand analytics but also want to bite your kneecaps off.

761
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 3: Okay, so what do you think about the Lions and

762
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 3: Dan Campbell because he loses his coordinators. So how is

763
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 3: that going to impact them? Because they kind of are

764
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 3: like the bell of the ball. Wow, the Lions look

765
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,399
Speaker 3: at them, they're about to break out, but then they

766
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 3: lose all of their coordinators or their two you know,

767
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 3: offensive defensive coordinators. So they could have like a major

768
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 3: slip this year potentially.

769
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, but we incorporated that into our projections and still

770
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 2: really like the Lions because they were so good last

771
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 2: year and the fact that their defense was really good

772
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 2: despite all the injuries. It's going to be healthier this year.

773
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 2: The thing about the Lions is as unbelievably unhealthy as

774
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: their defense was, their offense was very healthy. So their

775
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 2: offense is probably going to have more injuries and we'll

776
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: have to see if they can overcome. Like I think

777
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,400
Speaker 2: they could overcome an injury to James and Williams, But

778
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 2: can they overcome an injury to Amon Ross and Brown?

779
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 2: I don't know, Aaron.

780
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 1: This one's interesting. The Vikings had Sam Darnold a quarterback

781
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: last year. He exceeded expectations. He's now in Seattle. The

782
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 1: Vikings made the playoffs. Now they have JJ McCarthy who

783
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: is essentially a rookie. I mean, it's his second year,

784
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 1: but he missed all of his rookie campaigns. So do

785
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 1: you think with JJ McCarthy the Vikings are going to

786
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: be better than they were a year ago or worse

787
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 1: than they were a year ago?

788
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 2: They're likely going to be worse. You have to expect

789
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:36,720
Speaker 2: that rookie quarterbacks will be bad. Sometimes they're not, sometimes

790
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 2: they're not. Sometimes they're Jayden Daniels. But you have to

791
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 2: expect that they're going to be bad. So you have

792
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,359
Speaker 2: to expect that there's going to be a decline from

793
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 2: the Vikings and also from their defense. Again, really dependent

794
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: on turnovers. Last year, probably will decline a little bit.

795
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 2: I don't think the Vikings are going to be as

796
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 2: good as they were last year.

797
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 1: Who's the best quarterback according to in the NFL? According

798
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 1: to Aaron Shotts.

799
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 2: It's really hard to pick between Jackson, Allen and Mahomes.

800
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: You know in that conversation, Huh what Burrow's not in

801
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 1: the conversation?

802
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,959
Speaker 2: No, I think Burrow is very clearly fourth and no lower.

803
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 3: Than food Tier two by himself.

804
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, tier two by himself. Basically that's fuels. There's a

805
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 2: lot of people to argue about for number five, but

806
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow is clearly better than all of those guys.

807
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 3: I like that there's a clear number four, not a

808
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 3: clear five, not a clear one, two or three before

809
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 3: we got locked in for sure.

810
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably locked in on four. Yeah, Mahomes the

811
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 2: number wise, Mahomes hasn't been as good as Jackson and

812
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 2: Allen the last year or two, but there's still that

813
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,479
Speaker 2: that scratching thing in the back of your brain. That's

814
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:44,240
Speaker 2: like when the chips are down, Mahomes just makes it happen,

815
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,760
Speaker 2: like you still have to put him in that highest tier.

816
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 3: That is not analytical at all, And I love it's.

817
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: Yes, it's when the chips are down tier. Everything changes

818
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 1: when the chips are down. I love that.

819
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 3: It's like, Okay, we have tiers.

820
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 2: Okay the numbers.

821
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: I love you.

822
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 2: But he's Patrick Mahomes. So I mean, you know, in

823
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 2: the playoffs, and you have to also you look at

824
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 2: his stats from last year. You also look at the

825
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 2: situation he was in, look at all the injuries they

826
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 2: had with the receivers and the problems they had at

827
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 2: left tackle, and he overcame a lot of that.

828
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 3: It's the opposite, I think, or at least it has been,

829
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 3: and not because of himself, but because of team play

830
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 3: with Josh Allen and the Bills, right where with Patrick

831
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 3: and the.

832
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 2: Chiefs are like, ah, but it's the Chiefs is.

833
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes, They'll find a way. And with the Bills

834
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 3: like ah, but it's the Bills, Something's gonna happen. And

835
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 3: that's exactly what happens in THEFC Championship Game last year.

836
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like that might be even more true

837
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 2: of the Ravens because the Ravens, as much as our

838
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 2: numbers love them, every year in the regular season they

839
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 2: have one or two losses that are just completely inexplicable,

840
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: like last year to the Raiders. The Bills don't have

841
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 2: that until the playoffs and they're going against the best

842
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 2: teams and they lose by small amounts. The Ravens in

843
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 2: the regular season will have these losses that just make

844
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 2: no sense.

845
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: Why is Jalen hurt so disrespected? You could make an

846
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 1: argument of the last three years if you just look

847
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: at the numbers and just the numbers, that Jalen Hurts

848
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: has been every bit as good as Patrick Mahomes, So

849
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 1: why is he disrespected?

850
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 2: I think because you look at what he has around him,

851
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 2: possibly the best offensive line in the league, two really

852
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 2: great receivers, good tight end obviously playing with a great

853
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 2: defense on the other side of the locker room, and

854
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,359
Speaker 2: you're like, well, of course, with all this around him,

855
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 2: he's going to play very well. Like I think Hurts

856
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,280
Speaker 2: is very good. But for example, I don't think Hurts

857
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 2: is clearly the number five guy, like a lot of

858
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 2: people believe. Now. He's somewhere between like five and ten.

859
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 1: All right, man, we appreciate this. We enjoy it every

860
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 1: single year. The almanac is out. You can purchase it

861
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: at Ftnfantasy dot com Slashed Almanac, and a print copy

862
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:48,359
Speaker 1: is also now available on Amazon. Aaron Shotts, you are

863
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 1: a gem. You love football the way we love football. Man,

864
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 1: you did.

865
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: He loves football more than we love football, and he

866
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,280
Speaker 3: loves he also loves the bootball.

867
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: You gotta come out and say, Jalen Milroe, fucking guy

868
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 1: is awesome. Man.

869
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 2: I think people don't understand how much football stats people watch, Like, yeah,

870
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 2: just a bunch of numbers, like so much of the NFL,

871
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 2: like so many games, like all weekend long and then

872
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: on like NFL plus all week long. I go back

873
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: and watch the games I didn't watch on Sunday, Like,

874
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 2: it's just a lot.

875
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 3: Sounds like a terrible life. If I'm gonna be honest

876
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 3: with you, it's awesome in the.

877
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: Most ast me a lot of time to watch college.

878
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 3: Well, so I was gonna I was gonna ask you

879
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 3: before I'm glad you guys, because I'm gonna ask you airshots.

880
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 3: What does a vacation look like for you? When does

881
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 3: it happen?

882
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 1: Here? Do you go?

883
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 3: How much time do you have when we're like? All right,

884
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 3: back to the film?

885
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 2: Go to the Caribbean?

886
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:37,399
Speaker 3: Oh where I love?

887
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 2: I like Jamaica. I like going before free No after

888
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 2: free agency, but before the draft, okay, and then I

889
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 2: don't have to think about football for a week?

890
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: All right?

891
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:48,720
Speaker 3: Always Jamaica where you go to different places?

892
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: Go to Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico.

893
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 3: You ever climbed dunge river falls in Jamaica?

894
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 2: No?

895
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:55,879
Speaker 3: Oh?

896
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 1: That should we go on a trip with you, a

897
00:41:58,400 --> 00:41:59,319
Speaker 1: little off season trip.

898
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 2: Uh, we'll go.

899
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 4: We happen to me.

900
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 1: Watch football fifty two weeks out of the year.

901
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 3: That week are we like resort life? We go around,

902
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 3: we see the things, we still report.

903
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 2: I think like aclusive not have to worry about that.

904
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I love that?

905
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 1: Am I wrong? Billy? Like Taylor, you have gotten to

906
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:20,720
Speaker 1: know Billy. Billy and Shots would be best fucking friends?

907
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 2: Right?

908
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:22,240
Speaker 1: Yes? Yeah?

909
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 3: Have you been to Barbados? Are? And you should go

910
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 3: to Barbados?

911
00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 2: No, I've also heard lots of good things about bonn Air.

912
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 3: Oh bonn Air. I gotta look this up. Hold on,

913
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 3: now we have a leading candidate for the next year

914
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 3: islands like a Saint Martin your fan two sides of

915
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 3: that island?

916
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 1: Do you normally take some one of these vacations? Or

917
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 1: I have a girlfriend, so should we bring a plus one?

918
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: Or what are you?

919
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 2: Very very personal question about you would get along with?

920
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 2: Would be good young so much?

921
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 3: I have kids, though, you don't want my kids to

922
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 3: go in here.

923
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 1: I didn't know if it was a guys trip a

924
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 1: family trip. I didn't know what we were doing. I mean,

925
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: are you do a guys not.

926
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 2: A family trip? My kid is twenty one, so my

927
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 2: kid doesn't go on.

928
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 1: Vacation with all right, so no kid? So you're gonna

929
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 1: bring your funny friend. I'll bring my girlfriend. Billy will

930
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 1: bring his wife Taylor will bring.

931
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 5: I'm surprisingly old at this point, at twenty one, you're

932
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 5: getting close to like the part where like the relationship

933
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 5: flips a little right where it's like, okay, you have

934
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 5: to be responsible, And now you're getting close to like okay,

935
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 5: we're on vacation, drinking buddies.

936
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hear yet. No, we're not quite there.

937
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 3: Okay, all right. Stecats is already there with his kids.

938
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:27,320
Speaker 3: He's been there since they were twelve.

939
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 1: Thank you, Billy, and you're right. Fdnfantasy dot Com Slash

940
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: Almanac if you want to buy the Almanac. Also, a

941
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:40,240
Speaker 1: print copy is now available on Amazon. I'll be writing

942
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 1: for it next year. Will be on vacation for the

943
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: one week he doesn't watch football. We'll discuss it then.

944
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: Al right, thank you, yeah, Aaron, thank you very much.

945
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 1: We appreciate this man. It's always fun.

946
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 2: Thank you for having me on. And I hope people

947
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:53,320
Speaker 2: enjoy the book.