1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

2
00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

3
00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960
Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

4
00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119
Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

5
00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

6
00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

7
00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320
Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

8
00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000
Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

9
00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

10
00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,760
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. You're in

11
00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:51,360
Speaker 2: Timmer fidelity with us. Now with out question the superb

12
00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,520
Speaker 2: technical analysis in the Street, I can't say enough about

13
00:00:55,520 --> 00:01:00,400
Speaker 2: his LinkedIn effort required for Global Wall Street. In your

14
00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:04,600
Speaker 2: ninety three weeks in in counting on this bullmarket, you

15
00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:07,680
Speaker 2: got a nice comparing contrast to other bull markets.

16
00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:09,680
Speaker 3: Why is this bullmarket different?

17
00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,680
Speaker 4: Well, where do I begin? And good morning? By the way,

18
00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,760
Speaker 4: this has been an unusual market cycle because of course

19
00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,520
Speaker 4: it came out of the pandemic. And the pandemic, you know,

20
00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,600
Speaker 4: one hundred year storm has thrown all of our sort

21
00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,679
Speaker 4: of market cycle tools sort of out the window, right,

22
00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,880
Speaker 4: because we had that massive liquidity impulse, and then we

23
00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:36,679
Speaker 4: and then the FED had to you know, slam on

24
00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,399
Speaker 4: the brakes, and in twenty twenty two we had a

25
00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 4: twenty eight percent bear market without any drop in earnings.

26
00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:47,120
Speaker 4: It was entirely valuation driven, and then of course the

27
00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 4: market bottomed. It certainly wasn't obvious in real time, but

28
00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,440
Speaker 4: that first phase of the rally, lasting you know, a

29
00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:59,600
Speaker 4: year plus, was really driven by just a handful of stocks,

30
00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,160
Speaker 4: and the market is now broadened. This is now the

31
00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,440
Speaker 4: second broadening phase that we've seen. The first one was

32
00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:08,919
Speaker 4: from last fall. You know, when you will remember when

33
00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,600
Speaker 4: the ten year yield was on the brink of pushing

34
00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:15,360
Speaker 4: through five percent. You know, that caused a rape tantrum,

35
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,840
Speaker 4: and once they yield backed off, the market was able

36
00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,560
Speaker 4: to broaden. The S and P equal weighted index rallied

37
00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,600
Speaker 4: as much as the cap weighted index until this spring

38
00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,400
Speaker 4: room we had another little rate tantrum, and now we

39
00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,840
Speaker 4: have a second broadening. But by now the mag seven

40
00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,200
Speaker 4: or the nifty to fifty, whatever you want to call them,

41
00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:39,280
Speaker 4: are so big that whatever they do, the index does

42
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,800
Speaker 4: with them. And that's that's a different sort of chapter

43
00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:43,520
Speaker 4: in the book.

44
00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:47,400
Speaker 2: And go ahead, No, it's support it. Urine starts talking

45
00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,000
Speaker 2: and the market goes up. Sure, we just popped up

46
00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,920
Speaker 2: thirty three on futures. Paul, jump in here to calm

47
00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:53,639
Speaker 2: the market down.

48
00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,240
Speaker 5: You're in, so talk to us about that rotation trade

49
00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,919
Speaker 5: that we've seen over the last several weeks as maybe

50
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,480
Speaker 5: the mag seven some money coming out of there going

51
00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,680
Speaker 5: into maybe small caps in some other sectors. How real

52
00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:06,400
Speaker 5: is that and is that long lasting?

53
00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:10,919
Speaker 4: It's a great question, and you know, I work with

54
00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,960
Speaker 4: some of the smartest portfolio managers in the industry, you know,

55
00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:20,600
Speaker 4: dealing with acid allocation decisions, and it's been a torturous

56
00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,280
Speaker 4: decision to make. Is you know, at what point do

57
00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:27,400
Speaker 4: you lean against the leaders? And you know the world

58
00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:29,520
Speaker 4: is your oyster, right, I mean, you have four hundred

59
00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:32,280
Speaker 4: and ninety three sort of left behind stocks in the

60
00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:34,120
Speaker 4: S and P, then you have the Russell two thousand,

61
00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:37,960
Speaker 4: then you have MSCI, you know all country world. Em

62
00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,600
Speaker 4: the menu is very large, but you know to get there,

63
00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:44,640
Speaker 4: you need to bet against the winners. And if you're

64
00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:46,880
Speaker 4: a few weeks earlier, a few weeks late, you know

65
00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,480
Speaker 4: there's a lot of basis points that you leave on

66
00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,760
Speaker 4: the table. So it's an ongoing question. To me, this

67
00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:57,320
Speaker 4: one is feels real, and I'll give you just a

68
00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:58,440
Speaker 4: simple reason for that.

69
00:03:58,880 --> 00:03:59,560
Speaker 3: You know, for the.

70
00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:03,720
Speaker 4: First time in this cycle, the FED truly is poised

71
00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,360
Speaker 4: to cut right. It like it's had a bias to ease,

72
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,640
Speaker 4: but now it has the green light to actually execute

73
00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:14,080
Speaker 4: on that bias. Excuse me, starting in September. The question

74
00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,440
Speaker 4: is how many times it goes. But it will go

75
00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:19,159
Speaker 4: probably at least several times, down to maybe four and

76
00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,440
Speaker 4: a half or four that's my guess. That's where a

77
00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,599
Speaker 4: neutral rate would be if the real rate is plus

78
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,320
Speaker 4: one and inflation is plus three, and at the same

79
00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,880
Speaker 4: time we have earnings growth accelerating.

80
00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:32,000
Speaker 3: You know.

81
00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,839
Speaker 4: Q two season is underway, of course, and every Friday

82
00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,279
Speaker 4: I go my Bloomberg and I look at the expected

83
00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,600
Speaker 4: earnings growth numbers, and there are plus eleven right now

84
00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,720
Speaker 4: and rising. So if you think about it, and also

85
00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,120
Speaker 4: let me throw one more stattude, the S and P

86
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,040
Speaker 4: equal weighted index has a PE ratio of eighteen, whereas

87
00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,679
Speaker 4: the cap weighted index has a PE of twenty four.

88
00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,400
Speaker 4: So I put all those things together, you have a

89
00:04:56,480 --> 00:05:00,839
Speaker 4: lowering cost of capital, a bond market that's well behaved

90
00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:06,479
Speaker 4: right now, accelerating earnings and reasonable valuations for most stocks.

91
00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:08,120
Speaker 4: What's there not to like?

92
00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:08,400
Speaker 3: Right?

93
00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,800
Speaker 4: So that if that's not a recipe for the market

94
00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,680
Speaker 4: to broaden, then I don't know what there is. But

95
00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:16,680
Speaker 4: then it's just a question of can the S and

96
00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,359
Speaker 4: P five hundred cap weighted index actually continue to go

97
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,480
Speaker 4: up as that rotation happens.

98
00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,920
Speaker 5: Talk to us about sectors that you like, what screens

99
00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,800
Speaker 5: well for you and your team are portfolio managers outside

100
00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,640
Speaker 5: of those handful of big tech names.

101
00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:38,000
Speaker 4: You know, it's it's the cyclicals, it's the financials. You know,

102
00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:43,679
Speaker 4: anything that pays a nice dividend. And you know, again,

103
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,440
Speaker 4: you know, if you're a bank, I mean not the megabanks,

104
00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,440
Speaker 4: which their cost of funding is you know, the deposit rate,

105
00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,840
Speaker 4: which is about half a percent, But the other banks,

106
00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,520
Speaker 4: you know, if the cost of capital is going to

107
00:05:55,600 --> 00:06:00,000
Speaker 4: come down, they can sort of breathe again, right, I mean,

108
00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,360
Speaker 4: it's like a weight is being lifted off the market.

109
00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,360
Speaker 4: And of course industrials seems to me that no matter

110
00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,000
Speaker 4: you know, who wins in November, we're going to get

111
00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:12,360
Speaker 4: some combination of fiscal dominance and maybe industrial policy, and

112
00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,160
Speaker 4: so the companies that kind of rebuild the economy, I

113
00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,560
Speaker 4: would say, what's that to benefit?

114
00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:21,920
Speaker 2: In the In the Fidelity chart room of ages ago, folks,

115
00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,080
Speaker 2: I had such an honor to be in that chart

116
00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:28,720
Speaker 2: room and the tactile feel of paper and semilogue paper

117
00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,960
Speaker 2: and pencil and you know the pins in the paper

118
00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,920
Speaker 2: in that year, and I know that's that's old news.

119
00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:36,640
Speaker 3: But when you go into.

120
00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:40,360
Speaker 2: Your managers, in particular large cap growth managers, good morning,

121
00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:45,440
Speaker 2: will dan Off, what do you advise them about portfolio

122
00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:50,599
Speaker 2: concentration where their top ten stocks are fifty or fifty

123
00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:51,800
Speaker 2: five percent.

124
00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,280
Speaker 3: Of their portfolio. What do you tell those elite.

125
00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:02,320
Speaker 4: Well, it's a great question. And know the RPMs at

126
00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,600
Speaker 4: least the equity pms, and I don't mean to speak

127
00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 4: for for anyone, but of course we have a whole

128
00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:11,120
Speaker 4: assy allocation group that manages the dominos sort of at

129
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:15,240
Speaker 4: the top level. But I think for your typical portfolio managers,

130
00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,320
Speaker 4: obviously they look at tracking error and they have to

131
00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,520
Speaker 4: look at things like that. But you know, I think

132
00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:21,160
Speaker 4: the way they think of it is they want to

133
00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:25,880
Speaker 4: buy own the best companies, and obviously.

134
00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:29,000
Speaker 2: You don't because of time. I've got to interrupt your

135
00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,600
Speaker 2: in because of time. This is critical to me. It's

136
00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,760
Speaker 2: a type two effect. It's not that they want to buy,

137
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:39,600
Speaker 2: say Meta, it's they can't sell it. They sit there

138
00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:44,240
Speaker 2: with all of their abilities, including Fidelity security analysis, and

139
00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,120
Speaker 2: they can't come up with a reason to get out.

140
00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:46,840
Speaker 3: Is that right?

141
00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,400
Speaker 4: Well, I mean you get out when the the incremental

142
00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:56,800
Speaker 4: fundamentals stop looking good, or the stock is too expensive,

143
00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,360
Speaker 4: or it becomes too big. I mean you know that

144
00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:03,920
Speaker 4: that can create risk management issues and it's a careful

145
00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,680
Speaker 4: balancing act. But yeah, you do need better stocks to

146
00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:11,040
Speaker 4: replace them. Right, unless the evaluation differential is so bad.

147
00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:12,000
Speaker 3: You're in Thank you so much.

148
00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:13,800
Speaker 2: You're in Timber. Too short a visit. We're gonna take

149
00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,720
Speaker 2: you for a whole half hour. Next time you're in

150
00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:31,200
Speaker 2: New York, you're in Timmer with Fidelity. We all up

151
00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:32,959
Speaker 2: the cards for politics, and when we do of a

152
00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:37,600
Speaker 2: nine point nine, it's Henrietta Treys Henriette with VDA Partners.

153
00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,720
Speaker 2: I should say Henriette. I was walking around yesterday lost.

154
00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,800
Speaker 2: I didn't know what to do with myself because it

155
00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:45,640
Speaker 2: was the first Sunday since time began that I didn't

156
00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,360
Speaker 2: have to talk to Henrietta Trays about the world changing.

157
00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,360
Speaker 2: Is come returning to your political world.

158
00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,880
Speaker 6: I mean, finally, it's almost August. Everybody should be on

159
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:57,920
Speaker 6: everybody is.

160
00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,920
Speaker 7: On vacation, and it's still world news cycle for weeks now.

161
00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,680
Speaker 7: It's unbelievable. The way I turn it to clients, and

162
00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,000
Speaker 7: I think is pretty widely understood, is that this is

163
00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,040
Speaker 7: a honeymoon period that's going into its second week for

164
00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,679
Speaker 7: Kamala Harris. The Republican Conference and Donald Trump don't have

165
00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,680
Speaker 7: a good narrative to push back on her with yet.

166
00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:21,559
Speaker 7: The Democrat Party is just sort of running in happiness

167
00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:22,880
Speaker 7: right now with Kamala Harris.

168
00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:27,839
Speaker 2: What is the strategy structure you see of a Trump campaign?

169
00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:29,640
Speaker 3: If I have George Bush Sr.

170
00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,080
Speaker 2: Or name another Republican I get in my mind that

171
00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:37,160
Speaker 2: there's a hierarchy of advisors. Does President Trump have a

172
00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,640
Speaker 2: hierarchy of advisors as he finds a new strategy.

173
00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,080
Speaker 7: Well, it's interesting because the hierarchy of advisors is not

174
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,800
Speaker 7: focusing on the things that a George Bush administration would.

175
00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,720
Speaker 7: You know, we should be talking about foreign policy. On

176
00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,960
Speaker 7: tax policy, there's a four point six trillion dollar tax

177
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:55,680
Speaker 7: bill that's going to be written next year, and none

178
00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,320
Speaker 7: of that is anywhere. They're more trying to come up

179
00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,560
Speaker 7: with a good tagline to Definekmal Harris. Even the immigration

180
00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:05,839
Speaker 7: talking points aren't landing because so many of the reductions

181
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:09,800
Speaker 7: that have come in the last six seven months. But

182
00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:14,120
Speaker 7: since February on the border, in terms of deportation, in

183
00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:19,959
Speaker 7: terms of the diplomacy that's happened with foreign nations at

184
00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,320
Speaker 7: the Mexico border to keep migrants from entering the United

185
00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 7: States has dropped to levels that don't have the same

186
00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,720
Speaker 7: tagline they did over the last three years. You know,

187
00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:32,160
Speaker 7: the Biden Kamala administration has gotten immigration at the southern

188
00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,880
Speaker 7: border below the starting point of the Biden term. So

189
00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,960
Speaker 7: I think a lot of their talking points on policy

190
00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,839
Speaker 7: are not landing, and they're in offensive mode or defensive mode.

191
00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 7: Excuse me on their pick of vice president on Project

192
00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:47,800
Speaker 7: twenty twenty five, etc.

193
00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,959
Speaker 5: Henrietta, you mentioned the vice presidential pick here, what's the

194
00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,920
Speaker 5: latest on who it might be and when we might

195
00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:57,280
Speaker 5: hear about a VP pick.

196
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,160
Speaker 7: I think that Democrats are going to strategically try to

197
00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,480
Speaker 7: draw this out as long as possible, as long as

198
00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,120
Speaker 7: the palace intrigue is on or who will she pick

199
00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,680
Speaker 7: or who won't she pick. We're not talking about any

200
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,360
Speaker 7: of the policy prescriptions that Kamala Harris herself might have,

201
00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,560
Speaker 7: her past support for different tax policies and things along

202
00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,000
Speaker 7: those lines. As long as we're doing this palace intrigue stuff,

203
00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,560
Speaker 7: it's a positive news cycle for the Democratic Party. So

204
00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,200
Speaker 7: I expect that we won't hear the vice presidential ticket

205
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:26,079
Speaker 7: announced until next week. August seventh is when we should

206
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:30,200
Speaker 7: be finalized in determining the Kamala Harris will be the nominee,

207
00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,959
Speaker 7: and so I think somewhere in early next week that'll

208
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:33,760
Speaker 7: start to emerge.

209
00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:37,559
Speaker 6: My money's on Mark Kelly, Senator from Arizona. I think the.

210
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:42,040
Speaker 7: Plus twenty four point boost that Harris has identified with

211
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,800
Speaker 7: Hispanic voters is what is responsible for opening up the

212
00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:49,080
Speaker 7: electoral map to states like Nevada and Arizona, and then

213
00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,960
Speaker 7: the plus twenty five with black voters opens up Georgia

214
00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:52,760
Speaker 7: and North Carolina.

215
00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:53,720
Speaker 6: So I would.

216
00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:59,400
Speaker 7: Expect a more southerly focus than Shapiro in Pennsylvania.

217
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,880
Speaker 5: How about the convention in Chicago, Shit, Tom and I

218
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:03,720
Speaker 5: be paying attention.

219
00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:06,320
Speaker 6: I think it's going to.

220
00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:08,960
Speaker 7: Be a lot of pageantry, a lot of pomp and circumstance.

221
00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,080
Speaker 7: I thought Trump had an excellent RNC and got a

222
00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:12,240
Speaker 7: substantial boost from that.

223
00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:16,200
Speaker 6: So if you like flags and balloons, by all.

224
00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,440
Speaker 2: Me, Henriette, I want to go back to Mark Kelly

225
00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:23,720
Speaker 2: in that the absolute salient point here of a major

226
00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:28,079
Speaker 2: cultural issue is he's in Tucson, and so he's basically

227
00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:32,600
Speaker 2: one hundred and whatever miles from the Mexican border. He

228
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:36,760
Speaker 2: sticks out like a sore thumb for a huge body

229
00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:41,040
Speaker 2: of Americans of all political persuasions about the southern border.

230
00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,000
Speaker 2: How is he as a vice president and how is

231
00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,920
Speaker 2: she as a presidential candidate going to spin that?

232
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,559
Speaker 6: Well, I'm talking about Mark Kelly. You're asking he's in Tuson. Yeah,

233
00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:55,680
Speaker 6: He's in Tucson.

234
00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,640
Speaker 7: And I think the willingness of Mark Kelly to back

235
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,520
Speaker 7: again the Democratic Party for the last several years and

236
00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,480
Speaker 7: his working relationship with the right is something that really

237
00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,040
Speaker 7: stands out and is a stark departure from the Biden

238
00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,640
Speaker 7: Harris administration of the last three years, which is, you know,

239
00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,720
Speaker 7: obviously left leaning, despite the fact that they have pretty

240
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:19,760
Speaker 7: substantial deportation numbers, larger even than Trump. And I think

241
00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:21,520
Speaker 7: one of the big things we want to see him

242
00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:24,840
Speaker 7: focus on is talking about the actual border itself.

243
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:26,680
Speaker 6: You know, they need more border people, they.

244
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:29,160
Speaker 7: Need more boots on the ground, drones in the air,

245
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:31,960
Speaker 7: judges in the courts, they need all of those things

246
00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,199
Speaker 7: in place. That's what the Border Security bill was about

247
00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,079
Speaker 7: earlier in the year that the Senate passed.

248
00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:37,439
Speaker 6: I would expect him to focus on that.

249
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,200
Speaker 2: Okay, But the point I'm trying to make folks, I

250
00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,880
Speaker 2: think this is visceral. There's all this talk talk talk

251
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,440
Speaker 2: about the border. He's going to go Look, you go

252
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,520
Speaker 2: south on I nineteen yep, and you get to Negali's

253
00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:49,559
Speaker 2: I own that.

254
00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:51,000
Speaker 3: Nobody else owns that.

255
00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,600
Speaker 2: How do they spin that in Pennsylvania?

256
00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:59,320
Speaker 7: Henrietta Well, I think that it's an issue for Pennsylvania voters.

257
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,440
Speaker 7: And he can demonstrate the fact that he's physically been

258
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,240
Speaker 7: there and he's the one that's actively trying to work

259
00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:09,640
Speaker 7: with the border control with customs and have that conversation

260
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,120
Speaker 7: in Arizona that's telegraphed to Pennsylvania. A huge portion of

261
00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,760
Speaker 7: the white male voter base in Pennsylvania and the white

262
00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,719
Speaker 7: female voter base in Pennsylvania believes that immigration is the

263
00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,320
Speaker 7: number one issue. Why not telegraph that right from the border, Henrietta.

264
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,400
Speaker 5: What do we know about potential for debate presidential debates

265
00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:26,920
Speaker 5: going forward?

266
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:29,760
Speaker 6: It's my opinion that they have to occur.

267
00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:31,880
Speaker 7: So there's all this sort of back and forth drama

268
00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:33,840
Speaker 7: about you know what everybody's saying.

269
00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,720
Speaker 6: It's unrealistic in my opinion.

270
00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,440
Speaker 7: I think optically and politically for either candidate, either Trump

271
00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:42,280
Speaker 7: or Harris, to decide that they're not going to hold

272
00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:46,120
Speaker 7: a presidential debate. So I strongly suspect that one will occur.

273
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,280
Speaker 7: Whether it's September tenth on ABC, which I think is

274
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,280
Speaker 7: what's currently planned, you know, remains to be seen, but

275
00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:57,000
Speaker 7: somewhere around that time, maybe even after Labor Day into

276
00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,480
Speaker 7: late September or early October, makes a lot of sense.

277
00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,680
Speaker 6: That's usually when you would see them occur. But I

278
00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:03,840
Speaker 6: think one has to happen.

279
00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:08,320
Speaker 7: So I think seeing Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump is

280
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:09,920
Speaker 7: something that all Americans are going to see at some

281
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 7: point before the election.

282
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,720
Speaker 2: What are the polling nuance do you focus on?

283
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:16,000
Speaker 3: I'm benumbed by it.

284
00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,520
Speaker 2: I got like eighteen polls, I got everybody, I got

285
00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,320
Speaker 2: Nathan Hager, everybody else telling me what to do about

286
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:26,320
Speaker 2: polls Henrietta trace. Which of the polling distinctions are you

287
00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 2: focused on right now?

288
00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,240
Speaker 7: Well, right now, it's all about waiting and seeing. We

289
00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,680
Speaker 7: don't have any data from the swing states that's of

290
00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,000
Speaker 7: value yet post Biden dropping out. So a lot of

291
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,600
Speaker 7: the things I hear from Republican supporters and Trump supporters

292
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,600
Speaker 7: is saying, you know, he's still ahead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan,

293
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,160
Speaker 7: et cetera. That's absolutely true, but it's also only true

294
00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 7: because we don't have any new data. What's happened with

295
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,960
Speaker 7: Kamala Harris in the last week is something that I've

296
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,920
Speaker 7: never seen in American history, up twenty five, with black

297
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,360
Speaker 7: voters up twenty four, with white voters up eight, with

298
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,640
Speaker 7: female voters up massive numbers with eighteen to twenty nine

299
00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 7: year olds, et cetera. The only area where she's declined

300
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,080
Speaker 7: is only by two points, and that's the voters over

301
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,160
Speaker 7: the age of sixty five. So this has been a

302
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,480
Speaker 7: spectacular rollout. I think there's a couple of things to

303
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:12,200
Speaker 7: focus on if you're concentrating on the electoral college, monitor

304
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 7: the Hispanic vote.

305
00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:14,240
Speaker 6: We need to know what's going on in.

306
00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,000
Speaker 7: Arizona and Nevada, and whether or not that electoral college

307
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,360
Speaker 7: path really truly exists for Kamala Harris.

308
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 6: We do not have that data yet.

309
00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,960
Speaker 7: Really focus on those voters there, and then if you're

310
00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,760
Speaker 7: interested in political science and studying the trends, the gender

311
00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 7: gap in this electoral cycle is massive, a huge divide

312
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,400
Speaker 7: between men going for Trump and women going for Kamala Harris.

313
00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:36,600
Speaker 6: I think that's fascinating.

314
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 5: All right, Henriette, I thank you so much. We appreciate that.

315
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 5: Henrietta Trez, managing partner in Veda Partners.

316
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 2: Folks, what we really try to do is talk to

317
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 2: people of any divid debate or conversation where well they

318
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,400
Speaker 2: take a different tact and all that with MMNC group

319
00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,600
Speaker 2: Grant Cayman, and also in New York, Aisha Kiana joins

320
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:03,760
Speaker 2: us right now on bitcoin. She's got a really wonderful

321
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,920
Speaker 2: track record. You're working at Scaton ARBs years ago and

322
00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,879
Speaker 2: moving out through the bitcoin Maelstrom, Why is bitcoin on

323
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 2: a cusp of printing seventy thousand.

324
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 8: Because we had, you know, a presidential nominee, Donald Trump

325
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:23,320
Speaker 8: call us a high IQ individuals over the weekend and

326
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:27,119
Speaker 8: he said it's a marvel of for technology. So obviously,

327
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,639
Speaker 8: you know the industry rejoiced it, right, And it's not

328
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:34,160
Speaker 8: the first time as an industry, we've we've been asking

329
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:38,600
Speaker 8: for regulations since twenty seventeen, the first time around the

330
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:43,200
Speaker 8: debate around security versus utility tokens came up. But this

331
00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:47,959
Speaker 8: is the first time a presidential candidate has put it

332
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:52,760
Speaker 8: on his agenda and we've been hearing that, right. Kamala

333
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:54,400
Speaker 8: Harris is also putting.

334
00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,520
Speaker 2: A team to the Gunsler caves in we do ETFs.

335
00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,200
Speaker 2: Paul's loaded the boat down this He's got a five

336
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 2: one K. But the bottom line is regulation.

337
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:04,639
Speaker 3: To do what?

338
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:10,439
Speaker 8: Regulation to recognize it as a separate asset class the

339
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:16,600
Speaker 8: way Coinbase is a US publicly traded company, give other

340
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:21,399
Speaker 8: exchanges like there a bit you know, binance us a

341
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:26,960
Speaker 8: platform to you know, do a regulated business, compliant business.

342
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 1: Here jump in here.

343
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 9: Because I got like fourteen questions, why why hasn't that happened?

344
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 7: Why?

345
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 5: And I guess you guys, you being the industry, are

346
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 5: looking at it as some form of legitimacy.

347
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 1: Why hasn't it happened?

348
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,960
Speaker 8: The reason it hasn't happened is because every now and then,

349
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,119
Speaker 8: you know, even the funds that are trying to trade

350
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 8: these assets, we get a consult from our you know,

351
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:54,880
Speaker 8: law firms that SEC could deem this as a security. Right,

352
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,199
Speaker 8: So if any token that's not like, let's say our

353
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 8: top ten percent would get deemed as a security, we

354
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 8: have to change our Fuck.

355
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 3: Let me go back to basics here.

356
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,360
Speaker 2: If I bought this dog like Matt Miller at fifty thousand,

357
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 2: and I unloaded today at sixty nine thousand, do I

358
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 2: report that to the irs? And do I pay a

359
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 2: short or long term capital game?

360
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,919
Speaker 8: It depends on when you bought it, and depends on

361
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 8: where you buying it, and depends on how long you're

362
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 8: planning on holding the gain on it.

363
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,160
Speaker 2: Okay, I get that, But you say it's a separate

364
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,120
Speaker 2: asset class is your desire.

365
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 3: That's not a bond, not a stock, not a.

366
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,199
Speaker 2: Bond under SEC, not a currency. Where is it on

367
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg the yellow keys on Paul Sweeney's Bloomberg?

368
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 3: Where do you want bitdog.

369
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 10: To beg I think like, let's keep bitcoin as in bitcoin,

370
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 10: but we would want it to be just another like

371
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 10: ticker right like ticker on NASDAG, ticker on Okay, so yeah.

372
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:58,119
Speaker 8: So but underdigital assets right like we have bitcoin and

373
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,440
Speaker 8: we have ethereum just the way we have during a

374
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 8: ETF Bitcoin ETF.

375
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 9: But you're going to pay taxes on it is a

376
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 9: normal think I am, I think, I am How important

377
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:13,120
Speaker 9: was the spot bitcoin ETF thing.

378
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:17,200
Speaker 8: For I mean, look, you know, from the volumes perspective,

379
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 8: it has been slowly gaining momentum, right, But for US

380
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 8: as an industry, it's about the overall recognition because it

381
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,160
Speaker 8: comes it boils down to that, Look, this asset class

382
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 8: isn't going away. Give us a bit of guidelines will

383
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 8: move a bit more forward for you, right, like we'll

384
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 8: create compliant businesses, you know, we'll run compliant funds, will

385
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,439
Speaker 8: create even more ecosystems on it, instead of this asset

386
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 8: completely being moving offshore, which is you know, also being

387
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 8: discussed by both administrations at this point.

388
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 5: Is that, in fact, is there a risk that the

389
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 5: US I'm not sure if it has a leadership position

390
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 5: in crypto. If it has a leadership position, is it

391
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 5: at losing it.

392
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,399
Speaker 8: It does have a it does have a position in

393
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 8: crypto because all the bitcoins that have been seized over

394
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 8: the years, and both Senator Cynthia Luhman both President former

395
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 8: President Trump have said, look, we'll continue building on this

396
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 8: reserve and we'll hold it in the market instead of

397
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 8: like selling it to the market. And this you know,

398
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 8: will treasure it, like you know, as one of our

399
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 8: national assets. And he went as far as saying that

400
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 8: we'll bring mining, minting all of the ecosystems you know,

401
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 8: to us, like if you like, if anyone has followed

402
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,959
Speaker 8: the space enough years ago, it was China leading mining

403
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 8: bitcoin and now it's it's kind of dispersed. So for

404
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 8: a presidential candidate to come as far in his narrative, yes.

405
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 2: That you called an asset clash. You want it to

406
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: be equity like, but a separate digital asset. We looked

407
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 2: at a ten year Microsoft piece today three and a

408
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 2: half percent yield. You get a coupa and you get

409
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 2: your money back in two thousand and thirty five. We're

410
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 2: going to get tech earnings this week. Everybody's going to

411
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 2: go mental about free cash flow and all that. Where's

412
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 2: the underlying cash flows of bitcoin or is it basically

413
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 2: a gold equivalent.

414
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 8: It's going to be a gold equivalent. But the main

415
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 8: reason for us to put push for legislation is like

416
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 8: what happens when tokenized assets come into play?

417
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 9: Right.

418
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 8: We're saying that, you know, take any piece of an asset,

419
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 8: tokenize it, give everyone a chance to own it. Black

420
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 8: Rock has been very active on this, uh, you know

421
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 8: front like the builds a fund called Biddle they acquired,

422
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 8: you know, they invested in a company that could tokenize funds,

423
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 8: tokenized you know, private equity markets, tokenized traditional assets. That's

424
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 8: the long run we're looking for.

425
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 5: So there was a crypto commerce down in Nashville, yes,

426
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 5: bitcoin over the past couple days.

427
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 8: It started on Thursday, and Donald Trump spoke there on Saturday.

428
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 5: And what was other than the former president's what was

429
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 5: kind of the theme? What was kind of the big issue?

430
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 8: Sure, So we have industry conferences that are you know,

431
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 8: very much limited to different ecosystems. This was about bitcoin.

432
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 8: So this is the flagship bitcoin conference that happens every year.

433
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 2: Is the bid on bitcoin because of the ETF inflows?

434
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 2: Is it just that simple retail showed up?

435
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 8: Exactly? Yes? And no, because, uh, the conversation has gone

436
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 8: a lot more than bitcoin ETF. Like you know, recently,

437
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:37,439
Speaker 8: I had someone ahead of digital assets at a leading

438
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 8: bank basically tell us that, look, we're just waiting for

439
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 8: clear guidelines on it. And then we'll just trade it

440
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 8: this like another asset, like another ticker. And I said,

441
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 8: that actually makes a lot more sense for you know,

442
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 8: for a small fund like us, right, like for a

443
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 8: desk like you that sees billions and trillions in volume.

444
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 8: So if it's not only us as looking for guideline,

445
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 8: it's almost opiltrating us.

446
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 3: Thank you so much, Jashne with us. Here are THEMNN so.

447
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 2: You daily look at the front pages that John Tucker hour.

448
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 2: He's been slaving away at this since seven forty two

449
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 2: this morning.

450
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 1: I just compiled this in the last thirty seconds.

451
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 3: Actually.

452
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 1: Now this is from the Washington Post. An interesting one

453
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: about what went in to the selection of JD. Vance

454
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: or who opposed it. Actually, until the very end, some

455
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 1: people close to Donald Trump tried to talk the former

456
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 1: president out of picking Senator Vance as his running made

457
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: aboard Trump's plane en route to Milwaukee for the convention,

458
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: Senator Lindsey Graham argued that Marco Rubio would be better

459
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: than the untested Advance because the Cuban American senator might

460
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 1: attract more votes in the battleground states. He tried to

461
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: recruit others on Trump's playing to support his position. This,

462
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: according to some of the people familiar with the discussions.

463
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: Another advisor argued in a phone call just a couple

464
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 1: of days earlier that Glenn Younkin, the Virginia governor Or Rubio,

465
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: would be a better choice because Advance's previous comments opposing abortion,

466
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 1: asking Trump how he would defend some of the senator's

467
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 1: positions that seemed to be a little farther to the

468
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: right than his own.

469
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 3: Okay, you know, I.

470
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 2: Had somebody sent you note from nineteen seventy two when

471
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 2: Tom Eagleton, for very different reasons, stepped aside.

472
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 3: I don't know where this goes.

473
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 2: I have yet to have a coaching statement from an

474
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 2: expert like what happens given the first ten days of

475
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 2: Trump Vance and on any wisdom, mon all, what do.

476
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 3: You got next?

477
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 1: This one is from the journal Go South Young Graduates.

478
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 1: Frustrating season for college graduates looking for entry level jobs.

479
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: Some smaller cities actually in the South standout for their

480
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 1: brisk hiring, good salaries, and the affordability. Raleigh, North Carolina,

481
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 1: one of Paul's favorites. Austin, Texas, Baltimore, Baltimore, that's kind

482
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: of surprising to be Atlanta and Charlotte, North Carolina, Carolina

483
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: rank as the top five most promising locations defined work

484
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,199
Speaker 1: for newly minted college graduates.

485
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 5: What do you think, Paul, Yeah, I think that's a

486
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 5: I think that's been the story for a long time.

487
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 5: I just said, you know, you think about the growth

488
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 5: of the sun Belt, that's been a story for thirty

489
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 5: years plus. I think in this country even more, I.

490
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 2: Mean ignorant on this is the research triangle, which was

491
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: a fiction forty years ago. Is it maxed out or

492
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 2: is there lots of room for growth?

493
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 5: Tons of room for growth. And it's not just technology,

494
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 5: it's also probably originally biotechnology was a big part.

495
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:50,360
Speaker 9: Of that whole thing.

496
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 5: And you've got you know, the University of North Carolina,

497
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 5: Chapel Hill, n C. State, and Duke all within.

498
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 3: Fifteen miles of each other.

499
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 5: Oh, and that's you put it all together in the

500
00:26:58,960 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 5: middle and there you go.

501
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 1: And I did not know this. The unemployment rate for

502
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,360
Speaker 1: American workers between twenty and twenty four is now higher

503
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: than it was before the pandemic. This is all the

504
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 1: research from ADP. By the way, the highest ranked cities

505
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: for new college graduates tend to have the concentration of technology,

506
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,399
Speaker 1: health and financial firms.

507
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, absolutely so. I mean I think that all

508
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 5: those cities you mentioned, they just seem like the cities

509
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 5: we've heard of about just in the last few years

510
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 5: where people are leaving New York and coastal areas going down.

511
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 9: I just saw South Sure Man.

512
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: That was you know, I don't think it's a surprise

513
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 2: to anyone. New York, California, Illinois leading the exodus. There's

514
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 2: some other states involved there as well. But I would

515
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,959
Speaker 2: suggest some areas such as New York City the Tri

516
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 2: State area are seeing a wonderful influx of immigrants picking

517
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 2: up all sorts of jobs.

518
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 3: Not the migration debate.

519
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 2: But there is a depeopling of certain kinds of people

520
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 2: in some of Paul's to lower tax states.

521
00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 3: Yeah.

522
00:27:58,440 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: Absolutely.

523
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 5: For that time, I.

524
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: Perceived North Carolina as a lower.

525
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 9: Text I do.

526
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 5: I do absolutely, And Tom everything relative to the Tri

527
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 5: State New York City area is lower tax.

528
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 1: New Jersey has the unenviable distinction of having the highest

529
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 1: property taxes.

530
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 5: Somebody's got to explain to me who pays for all

531
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 5: this stuff? In Florida, there's no income tax. In Texas,

532
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 5: what are they they? What are they taxing?

533
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: That makes up for income tax I haven't.

534
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 9: Yeah, I'm gonna ask.

535
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 3: I think we should go down and do some research. February.

536
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 1: This is from the New York Times. Darren Mara should

537
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 1: have stuck around for this one. As the rest of

538
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: the world fought to keep inflation in check, one country

539
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: welcomed it with open arms. In the past few years,

540
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: Japan saw a burst of inflation spurred by pandemic supply

541
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: chain snags and geopolitical shocks, as a way to shake

542
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: the economy out of its decades long cycle of weak

543
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: growth and pressure from deflation. So while the major central

544
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: banks like the US raised rates to reign and prices,

545
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: Bank of Japan, of course, kept rates low as inflation accelerated.

546
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: The theory was that by sticking with rock bottom rates,

547
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 1: the central bank could harness the temporary spiking prices to

548
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: foster the kind of inflation it had long sought, moderate,

549
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: steady and supporting economic growth. Actually, it's a fascinating read

550
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: in the New York Times. For those of you who

551
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: don't follow Japan.

552
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 5: Well, we didn't talk about Japan for twenty twenty five

553
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 5: years until one buffet several years ago. Now seems like

554
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 5: every strategist says, hey, you got to be in Japan.

555
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 5: I was like, where did that come from the end?

556
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: By the way, one fifty three eighty one.

557
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 3: John Tucker, thank you so much, greatly appreciated.

558
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: Oh wait, let's do the Because they did the movie review.

559
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: I talked to Alex Steele upstairs getting coffee. Her verdict

560
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: is not the best one rules is in these Deadpool

561
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: and Wolverine taking in two hundred five million dollars in

562
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: the US and Canadian ticket sales this week.

563
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 2: The Telegraph in London was vicious vicious. I mean they

564
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 2: tore it. I don't know. I don't know.

565
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 5: I haven't seen any of them. But Alex Steele is

566
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 5: our resident Deadpool experts. She is, yes, so but it

567
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 5: took it, Like you said, two hundred and five million domestic,

568
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 5: I think well over foreigner man global. This is gonna

569
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 5: be a billion dollar box office.

570
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 3: Right, Alex? Thanks? You're up to forty two listeners. And

571
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 3: do you know Alex Steele is listening to us.

572
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 7: Nice.

573
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 1: No, she was just getting coffee.

574
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 3: Oh oh she was.

575
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: She was listening to my question. I said, how was

576
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: the movie?

577
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 3: That's great?

578
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 2: You know, and she had she took the fam and

579
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 2: the popcorn was like ninety eight dollars.

580
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, going to Yankee Stadium.

581
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 2: It is beer, I said, yeah, John Tucker, thank you

582
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 2: so much for the newspaper. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,

583
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 2: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

584
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit

585
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show

586
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 2: weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our

587
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 2: global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast

588
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always

589
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.