WEBVTT - This Is What We Just Learned In Jackson Hole 0:00:10.800 --> 0:00:14.360 Hello, and welcome to a special episode of the Odd 0:00:14.360 --> 0:00:15.240 Lots Podcast. 0:00:15.320 --> 0:00:18.400 I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway Racy, So we are. 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:21.440 Here for you and me the first ever time at 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:22.120 Jackson Hall. 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.800 I know I always wanted to go, partly for the scenery, 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:29.120 but also just to get a feel for some of 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:34.600 the economic discussions and wonkery. I've seen this described or 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:37.800 heard this described as the super Bowl for central bankers. 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:40.599 You know what. I like the description. 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:42.400 It's very apt because like when I think of the 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:44.279 Super Bowl, I think of like a bunch of like 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:46.160 parties and people just hang out if. 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:46.680 There's the game. 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:50.160 But seriously, like you said, like partly for the scenery, 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.000 I would say, like for me, that's like ninety five. 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:55.120 I was so jar dropped the first time I walked in. 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:57.560 It was gogeous, like the gran I was just like, 0:00:58.240 --> 0:00:59.840 I'm like totally flabbered gust. 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.840 Also the chance to finally break out my cowboy boots. 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:04.800 I don't get to do that that often in New York. 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.000 If anyone sell the photos of me on Twitter this 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.280 week and Wednesday morning, as I was scrambling out of 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:12.360 the house, I could not locate I have multiple cowboy boots. 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:13.440 I couldn't find any of them there. 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:17.160 Sure, Joe, Sure they all go conveniently missing right before 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.200 you need them. No, but it is an amazing event. 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:21.640 It's really interesting to sort of witness it for the 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.880 first time because it is at this kind of unusual 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:26.280 moment for central bankers. 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:30.119 Yes, right, and so it's like this like weird uneasy piece, 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:33.080 which is like inflation has come down a lot, the 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:37.240 labor mark is robust. We had this hiking cycle, but 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:40.600 no one really knows why and how it all happened 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:43.240 and what exactly the mechanism was. And I think that 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:46.200 leads to a little bit of anxiety about what will 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.080 the inflation the disinflation persist. 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:50.400 I think it leads to a lot of anxiety. I mean, 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:53.960 these are central bankers who are steeped in economic theory, 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:57.280 things like the Phillips curve, which tell you that inflation 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:00.640 shouldn't be coming down without a corresponding rise in the 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:04.080 unemployment rate. And we've seen the exact opposite happen. And 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:05.960 if anything, it seems like there are some signs that 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:09.359 the economy is accelerating. Now you have the Atlanta Fed 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:13.880 GDP now right, which is kind of crazy after we've 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:16.239 seen this huge run up in interest rates. 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:18.760 Now I know there's something like there's I'm thinking trying 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:20.120 to think of some gift of like some of the 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.440 person like sort of awkwardly smiling and it's. 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:25.800 Like, yeah, things are good. Well, we can't entirely explain 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:26.639 why that's sort of. 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:28.480 The vibe I would say, right, yeah, I think that's right. 0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:30.280 All right, So what have we learned? We're going to 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:32.960 try and do a little bit of summation of this 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:38.080 extraordinary weekend with some very special guest. For this special episode, 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:41.080 we are going to be speaking with two of our 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:44.240 illustrious colleagues here at Bloomberg. We're going to be speaking 0:02:44.280 --> 0:02:48.079 with Bloomberg Surveillance co host Tom Keen, who happened to 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:51.080 be the first ever ODLOTGS guest years ago. And then 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:55.400 afterwards we will be speaking to Bloomberg TV's policy correspondent 0:02:55.480 --> 0:03:00.360 Michael McKee, the legend Tom Keen, co host of Bloomberg's Surveillance. Tom, 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:02.440 thank you so much for coming back on the odd line. 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:03.880 It's great to be here. But you gotta paint this. 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:05.720 I mean, you don't know, you don't have a video for. 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:07.240 This podcast, I'll take a photo. 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:12.360 We're sitting here in literally an historic landmark. Back in 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:15.600 my ute, you there weren't planes, there weren't trains. 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:15.919 Tom. 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:19.320 You went west in the car with four screaming kids 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:21.800 and no air conditioning, and you went out to the 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:25.640 National Parks and there were these little gorgeous nineteen sixties 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:30.160 mad men bungalows. Yes, and I expect Rock Hudson and 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:32.280 Kim Novak to walk through the door at any moment. 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:35.600 These are definitely bungalows. So for people who haven't been 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:39.880 to the Jackson Lake Lodge, they're kind of rustic. There's 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:43.080 no TV. There's a warning sign in the room saying 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:46.560 if you encounter mice or bats, please call staff, don't 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:47.920 try to trap them yourself. 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:49.360 Take ants. 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:52.520 I haven't, but it doesn't get too hot. But there's 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:53.400 no air conditioning either. 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:55.160 Yeah, air conditioning has at to option. 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:58.160 How many times you've been here to Tom, I have 0:03:58.240 --> 0:03:59.080 been here roughly. 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:02.240 I haven't kept count like Davos, but I've been roughly 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:04.720 seventeen years. What I'll say is off and on, but 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:07.040 I've had a good fortune of being here most of 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.400 the maximum tension years. 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:11.680 Tracey, you know what I really like about here, And 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:13.920 Tom mentioned Davos, which is why I bring it up. 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:17.240 In Davos, you know, they clear out all the civilians, 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:19.960 like when all the everyone comes, like you cannot get 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:23.920 into that whole town. Here, it's like we're around by tourists, 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:26.320 like anyone could actually just sort of come hang out 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:28.200 here and sort of like sit on one of the 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:30.000 couches and the Jackson like lodge. You just got to 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:31.920 like buy like a hotel room or something. It's like 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.000 a much more like peaceful vibe. 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:37.360 It's true. I did actually have this older Australian couple 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.159 that came up to me and they were looking at 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:41.520 the Bloomberg TV setup and they sort of tapped me 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:43.680 on the shoulder and they were like, what's going on, 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.200 what's happening? And I was trying to get them very 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:49.400 excited about Oh, Jerome pal is here and maybe even 0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:52.120 someone from the RBA is around. They were into it. 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:55.599 Yeah, Bud Nethel was once on the coach. They're hanging 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:59.040 out with this guy sixty five years old Gray they're 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:02.760 talking about so how sure it's the wonderful Irvin King from. 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:07.080 The Baker, It's great. What have you learned. What struck 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:08.159 you about Paul speech. 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:10.839 Well, well, not much about Paul speech. I mean I 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:12.440 listened to it. It's in my ear and we've got 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:15.240 all sorts of production issues going on at the time, 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:17.240 So to be honest, I don't hear it word for 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:19.520 word like you guys do, and Tracy really sits on 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:23.960 it and listens. But different than any other meeting, even 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:26.920 CenTra and Portugal, this is a meeting where you have 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:29.839 no clue what the zeitgeist is going to be until 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:33.280 deep into Friday. And the one word for me this 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:38.239 unique moment in our history is complexity. Everyone of every 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:42.480 shape and flavor is overwhelmed by the complexities of the moment. 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:45.640 I think that's exactly right. And do you the people 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:49.400 you speak to, do they express much anxiety about this 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.960 current period of economic time or is the vibe very much? Well, 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:55.640 last year pwe was talking about how we'd have to 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:57.920 have lots of pain in order to bring down to 0:05:58.040 --> 0:05:58.719 claci media. 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:02.080 Yeah, that's the media. That's a no. 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:02.200 No. 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:05.960 These are people, is you all know? These are the 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:08.920 people who were first in their fourth grade class in 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:11.720 math and they had a meeting in June with their 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:14.360 parents to say, well, we think he should jump to 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.520 sixth grade. They were those kind of people, and so 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:20.520 they have a huge arrogance about how smart they are, 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:24.039 but also a built in humility, and the humility right 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:27.120 now is maxed out. I don't care if they're you know, 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.440 Barry Iiking Green of Berkeley or the youngest peahd he 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:33.560 was lucky to breathe the air. Here, they're all humbled 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:35.280 beyond belief about how wrong they've been. 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:38.640 I mean, I I the final paragraph. I think of 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:42.760 Powell's speech. He talked about the cloudy skies, which I 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:45.120 you know, because the whole question is like the stars 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:46.640 are a star neutral rate, which. 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:47.360 You know, one knows what they are. 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:49.240 And I think, you know, Paul expressed that in the 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:51.440 speech that it's like the guy's are cloudy. Even if 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:54.200 even if such stars even exist, it does not seem 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:55.080 like we could see them right now. 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:57.080 I live in New York where there's like one damn 0:06:57.160 --> 0:06:59.800 star in the sky. It's our terrorists. If you think 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:02.320 it's Stevie Winwood and Arc of the Diver, it's one 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:05.040 of the stars on the record album You Come out Here, 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.440 and it's the stars were in the sky last night. 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:11.840 You know, there'll be a lot of analysis. Frankly, you 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:13.840 guys are better at that than me. It'll be hawkish, 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:17.640 hawkish and this level in that. I think they're overwhelmed 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:22.560 by the non economic, non monetary things, and to me, 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:26.200 it's just an extension of the pandemic and we really 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:28.080 don't know where we are in that continuum. 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:30.280 Yeah, it seems like they're struggling with some of the 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:32.880 real economy aspects of this. And you saw it in 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:36.560 Pal's speech where he was talking about supply chain pressures 0:07:36.560 --> 0:07:40.080 starting to ease, what's going on in housing. It feels 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.880 like that's not that's not their comfort spot. 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.560 It's oh decidedly not. I mean to take it academic, 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:49.600 and to take a structure like a Hicksey and Islm structure, 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.360 which is, you know, blah blah blah nineteen thirty eight. 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:55.080 I don't think that's in play right now. You let 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:57.360 meet with a Phillips curve, which was what fifty two. 0:07:57.440 --> 0:07:59.880 I'm going to think, London School of Economics. None of 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.520 this is working right now. I don't know what the 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:05.640 twenty twenty fourth theory is. It waits odd lots to 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:06.200 tell us. 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:09.240 You brought up nothing is working right now, and I'm convinced. 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:12.480 I mean, I did a TV hit yesterday. We were 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.160 talking about the disinflation and something Someone's like, well, in 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:17.120 a year, will we have more sense? And I kind 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:19.240 of think that, like this is going to be a 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.520 period that not next year, not ten years, like for 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.720 twenty and thirty years, people will be writing papers about 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.680 this period right now and what happened. And I suspect 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:30.520 we are not going to ever really have something that 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:31.680 resembles a consensus. 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:34.440 I strongly agree with that. My book of the Summer 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:38.240 is Olivia Blanchard, very controversial right now, we don't need 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:41.520 to go into it. But the answer is Olivier has 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:44.240 this phrase for all the stuff we don't get, called 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:48.160 other factors. It's like an academic usage with quotes around it, 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:51.439 and that we're overwhelmed by the other factors. I mean, 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.000 look at what we have right now, Tracy. We've got 0:08:54.240 --> 0:09:01.440 labor dynamics, pandemic dynamics, the uaw thing that's happening, Pharaoh's gone, 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.200 He's going to make one hundred and seventy thousand a 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:05.920 year at UPS. And then you got the fact the 0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:08.520 Red Sox beat the Houston anstro of seventy to one. 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:10.800 There are other factors out there that matter. 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:13.120 There's a lot happening, that's for sure. So on that 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:19.199 note she jured me. This is called a pivot. This 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:22.160 is what I learned from the Central Bank meetings. Hot 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:24.960 a pivot. So on this note, I'm curious you've been 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:27.719 going for a long time. One thing I was kind 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:31.440 of surprised about is so much of the focus from us, 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:34.840 you know, reporters here to talk about this event is 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:38.360 on the short term policy outlook. But the event itself 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:42.880 is supposed to be discussing the longer term analytical framework 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:47.120 for monetary policy. How has the sort of emphasis of 0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:49.440 this symposium changed over time? 0:09:49.840 --> 0:09:52.520 Tom Hanig and I had a nice chat out front 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:56.640 of the door here at the lodge. Tom Hanig reinvented 0:09:57.200 --> 0:09:59.840 Jackson Hole in the Kansas City FED. This started for 0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:02.679 years ago with Paul Volker. They said, Paul, I know 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:05.679 you hate conferences, you don't want to travel. There's fly fishing. 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:08.120 So I Volker showed up, literally, I kid you not. 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:10.640 That's how they started this thing, and off the top 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:11.560 of my head, eighty two. 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.559 Well it worked. 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:15.679 And it still works to this day. But they had 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:18.880 to get reinvigorated, and Tom A. Honig did that his 0:10:18.960 --> 0:10:21.680 head of the Kansas City Fed before Esther George. But 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:24.360 what Honig had to do was police the modern media, 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.120 and they it's sort of been a you know, you 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:28.800 see it. You come out of the lodge folks, and 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:32.400 there's this huge mountain range picture and there's this place 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:34.880 where they take the photos of the central bankers, and 0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:38.120 off to the right it looks like the Republican National Convention. 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:41.280 You know, it's like three networks lined up everything but 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:44.520 the satellite trucks and the And the answer is that 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:47.680 Kansas City Fed has had to police the short term 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:51.880 analysis with papers looking out thirty years. Yeah. 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:56.600 It does seem, however, in different years. And obviously the 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:59.920 chairman doesn't not every year that most years the chairman 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:01.600 gives a speech. But every once in a while I 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.120 think that German doesn't come. Yeah, I think it's twenty 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:05.240 I feel like twenty. 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:05.960 Thirteen or something. 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:09.920 Yeah, but it feels like to some extent it's sort 0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:12.479 of the dial goes back and forth about how academic 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:15.480 they're so like right now and last year was probably 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:16.040 more famous. 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:18.040 You know, there's like that pow'll. 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:20.520 Give an eight minute speech in twenty twenty two, which 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:23.080 I've characterized as like, we're not here to make friends, 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:25.120 We're here to get inflation done. This year, I think 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:27.560 this speech was closer to maybe like fifteen or twenty 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:29.560 minutes or something like that, but still like not a 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:32.040 particularly academic speech. But if you go back to twenty 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:35.120 nineteen or twenty eighteen and Polo speech is very much 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:37.240 like talk about the different stars, So it feels like 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:39.600 you sort of get a feel for the moment based 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:41.520 on how academic that speech. 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.679 And sometimes this happens, and it happened. I believe it 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:47.480 was a droggy. It may have been thrche, but the 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.719 moment here is the European Central Bank, in my conversation 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:55.120 with Christine Linguard, is an example of the urgency in 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:58.280 in ECB to to September sixteenth and beyond and the 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:02.360 complete mystery of the europe An experiment. It makes us 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.720 look like virtual certitude. What we're doing, it's all insane. 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:09.319 So when you come here, what are the goals? 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:09.480 Like? 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:13.719 What would what constitutes a good Jackson hole for you? 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:15.800 And the tom han is to get me out of 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:17.480 a suit. He came up to me once and he said, 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:19.200 can we lose the tie? 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:20.120 What do you wear BOTHA? 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:24.520 I traveled when I first joined Bloomberg. Actually I wore 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:28.719 a bolo once. We interviewed the art director of mad Men, 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.959 and I wore a bolo. That was some endorsement from 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:36.120 mad Men or something. I can't remember, but it at 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:40.080 Jackson's Hole. I travel like I always travel, which is 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:42.480 as simple as I can, because I used to travel 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:45.520 NonStop for the company. And you know, I started out 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.640 like Audrey Hepburn and charade with seven suitcases and a 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:50.840 hat box, and then I got down to three suitcases, 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:52.200 and now it's like you get to one. 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.160 I did ask Mike McKee, who we are about to 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.679 speak to, actually how many hats he typically brings with 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.680 him to Jackson Hole. I was disappointed to hear it 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.720 was only one. I imagine him Audrey Hepburn style with 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:04.559 like seven hat boxes on the plane. 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.600 But I didn't realize he's a he's a western man. 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:09.959 He's Colorado. So this is a joke come out? Did 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:10.360 I make that. 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:14.679 He's milking every Western jun kid, the. 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.480 Economic Western He's like, this is my natural habitat. 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.880 Yeah, he's north of here. He's up by Jellystone Park 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:24.000 in Idaho or someplace he's here. Then he'll go down 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:26.400 to Arizona. What he's got the whole Mountain time thing. 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:28.199 He's nailed it. 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:30.040 Well, now we have to ask Mike about this. 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:30.680 Nice true. 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:34.080 Okay, one more question from me. For people out there 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:38.120 who are trying to understand Jackson Hole, what's your most 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.520 important piece of advice? What should they be looking out 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:41.680 for the thing? 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:47.199 And particularly for younger people, this is so true social 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:52.640 media podcasts, The blah blah I do doesn't cut it. 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.719 You have to read the material. And the material can 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:59.800 be books, obviously, it can be papers, it can be 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.000 longer commentaries. You know, what's what we did when we 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:05.920 were kids. You read the Economist to cover. I mean, 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:09.280 that's how you do it. There's no substitute for reading. 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.520 There's just absolutely no substitute for reading. That's just it's 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:13.240 as simple as that. 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:14.440 Did you read all the papers? 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:14.720 Jeff? 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:16.840 I hate to admit it, but Tom is totally right. 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:18.920 And this is like it's taken me like forty three 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:21.320 years of my life too, like acknowledge, like actually, you 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:23.120 kind of have to do the reading. And if you 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:26.680 read an academic paper, you can't just like for years, 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:28.600 I just read the abstract and then skipped to the 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:30.600 end and look for a chart that I could screenshot 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.680 and tweet. And I have to admit that there might 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.000 be actually some good meat in the middle. 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:37.479 The good stuff's in the footnotes. 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:38.240 I know, all right. 0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:41.240 My last question, you know, a few more months of 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.520 this year, three FED meetings before the end of the year. 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:45.720 What are you watching for? 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:46.000 Like? 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:47.520 What do you what do you what are you looking 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:48.960 out for for the rest of the year, both from 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:50.360 the MACRO and the FED, like, what do you what 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:51.280 interest you read the. 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.600 Word I over use the TV. People will say to me, 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:55.760 why are you saying vector? No one knows what that is. 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:57.600 I think a lot of people know what a vector is. 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:00.640 It's a straight line essentially, but in two or three 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.440 dimensional space to the end of this year, with all 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:06.880 that we've got, Joe, it's a massive three dimensional space 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:09.400 right now. I want to know the power of any 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.280 of these vectors, like inflation. I want to know which 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.480 way they're going. I have no idea what the vector 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.800 is on Javas claims, no idea at all, but I 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:21.520 want to see established to the end of the year, 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:25.120 any belief in these vectors. Well, you know, we make 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.760 jokes about I'm so pessimistic. I'm in the triple leverage 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:33.840 doll cash front. I haven't usually no, no, there's a 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:37.560 new offering coming up in February. It's forbule leverage. But 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:41.720 the answer is I have a huge optimism. It's like 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.080 Churchill said about America, We'll figure it out at some point. 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:49.360 I have a huge optimism forward about our exceptionalism on 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:52.920 technology getting us into twenty twenty four. 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:55.320 Well, Jackson Hole is definitely a place that makes you 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:56.120 believe in America. 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:00.840 I was dming with someone early like you need to 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:02.760 travel for America is so much, so. 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:05.240 Much, Tom, that was a blast, so much time. 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:06.400 Can I take them out? Yes? 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:11.160 And now let's let's chat with our colleague Mike mcka. 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:13.560 Mike McKeith, thank you so much for joining us. Happy 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:17.200 to be here, Mike, really important question to start. So 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:20.360 Tom said, you're not really Western. He's like, oh, Mike 0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:24.160 mc so, he just pretends to be a cowboy. What 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.000 what's the truths there? 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:28.280 I will gladly take Tom out on the range with me. 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:31.480 I grew up in Colorado, grew up writing, come out 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:34.960 here every year and uh help my friends on the ranch, 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.640 and so yeah, I mean I can cowboy. 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:40.240 Okay, because you for those who haven't seen the pictures, 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:42.360 Mike wears a cowboy. A lot of people like to 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:44.240 dress up, but you know, I think Mike is a 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:45.400 little more credible than most. 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:48.680 I think Mike probably has the best Jackson Hole wardrobe. 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:49.600 I put it that way. 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:51.960 Yes, it's what I would wear. I mean, this is 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:53.200 this is Jackson Hole. 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:54.000 It's Jackson Hole. 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.320 How many hats do you actually have with you? 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.040 Well, I only have one hat with me. I own seven. 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:00.800 And how many times have you've been out here? 0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:02.800 I don't know how an exact count, but the first 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.119 time I came was nineteen ninety seven, and most years 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:08.680 between ninety seven and now I've been here. 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:11.359 So one thing I didn't realize about Jackson Hall. I 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.840 kind of assume that, you know, media was invited and 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:17.639 that media would have access to the actual conference. But 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:20.400 that's not the case. They have a kind of weird system. 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:21.600 Can you describe that to us? 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:27.359 Basically, it's one representative from each news media organization and 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:32.080 Bloomberg Radio TV, and unfortunately you guys are blumped under 0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:36.400 that gets one, and Bloomberg News gets one, and then 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:38.760 the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, et cetera. 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:43.439 And so the media presence is there, but it's not huge. 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:47.040 So we're talking about this with Tom earlier. But it 0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:48.880 feels like the. 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:50.400 Dial changes from time to time. 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:53.199 And some years it's this is clear, you know, the 0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:56.399 interest is in something very academic, and then some years 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:58.879 it feels like the interest is in how fast is 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.080 the FED GETNA raise right? And over the next three 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:04.719 or four months. How does this ear feel different or 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:06.919 similar to past Jackson halls You've. 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:09.200 Been Well, it's maybe a little more in the middle. 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:13.639 What happened basically was it was an it is an 0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:16.600 academic conference. People think that something goes on in there 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:21.360 that doesn't happen. It's academic economic papers with econometrics math 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.520 in there, and they talk about things that might happen 0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:28.879 in the future and in terms of economics. But the 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.040 chairman always gets to give a speech. And in two 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:33.800