1 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to a special episode of the Odd 2 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: Lots Podcast. 3 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway Racy, So we are. 4 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 1: Here for you and me the first ever time at 5 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 1: Jackson Hall. 6 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 2: I know I always wanted to go, partly for the scenery, 7 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: but also just to get a feel for some of 8 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: the economic discussions and wonkery. I've seen this described or 9 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 2: heard this described as the super Bowl for central bankers. 10 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:40,599 Speaker 3: You know what. I like the description. 11 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: It's very apt because like when I think of the 12 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,279 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, I think of like a bunch of like 13 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: parties and people just hang out if. 14 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 3: There's the game. 15 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 1: But seriously, like you said, like partly for the scenery, 16 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: I would say, like for me, that's like ninety five. 17 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: I was so jar dropped the first time I walked in. 18 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: It was gogeous, like the gran I was just like, 19 00:00:58,240 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: I'm like totally flabbered gust. 20 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 2: Also the chance to finally break out my cowboy boots. 21 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 2: I don't get to do that that often in New York. 22 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: If anyone sell the photos of me on Twitter this 23 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: week and Wednesday morning, as I was scrambling out of 24 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: the house, I could not locate I have multiple cowboy boots. 25 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 3: I couldn't find any of them there. 26 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: Sure, Joe, Sure they all go conveniently missing right before 27 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 2: you need them. No, but it is an amazing event. 28 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 2: It's really interesting to sort of witness it for the 29 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 2: first time because it is at this kind of unusual 30 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 2: moment for central bankers. 31 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,119 Speaker 1: Yes, right, and so it's like this like weird uneasy piece, 32 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: which is like inflation has come down a lot, the 33 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: labor mark is robust. We had this hiking cycle, but 34 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: no one really knows why and how it all happened 35 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: and what exactly the mechanism was. And I think that 36 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: leads to a little bit of anxiety about what will 37 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: the inflation the disinflation persist. 38 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 2: I think it leads to a lot of anxiety. I mean, 39 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 2: these are central bankers who are steeped in economic theory, 40 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 2: things like the Phillips curve, which tell you that inflation 41 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 2: shouldn't be coming down without a corresponding rise in the 42 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: unemployment rate. And we've seen the exact opposite happen. And 43 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 2: if anything, it seems like there are some signs that 44 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 2: the economy is accelerating. Now you have the Atlanta Fed 45 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 2: GDP now right, which is kind of crazy after we've 46 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 2: seen this huge run up in interest rates. 47 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: Now I know there's something like there's I'm thinking trying 48 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: to think of some gift of like some of the 49 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: person like sort of awkwardly smiling and it's. 50 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 3: Like, yeah, things are good. Well, we can't entirely explain 51 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 3: why that's sort of. 52 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 2: The vibe I would say, right, yeah, I think that's right. 53 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: All right, So what have we learned? We're going to 54 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 1: try and do a little bit of summation of this 55 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: extraordinary weekend with some very special guest. For this special episode, 56 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: we are going to be speaking with two of our 57 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: illustrious colleagues here at Bloomberg. We're going to be speaking 58 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Surveillance co host Tom Keen, who happened to 59 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 1: be the first ever ODLOTGS guest years ago. And then 60 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: afterwards we will be speaking to Bloomberg TV's policy correspondent 61 00:02:55,480 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 1: Michael McKee, the legend Tom Keen, co host of Bloomberg's Surveillance. Tom, 62 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: thank you so much for coming back on the odd line. 63 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 4: It's great to be here. But you gotta paint this. 64 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 4: I mean, you don't know, you don't have a video for. 65 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 3: This podcast, I'll take a photo. 66 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 4: We're sitting here in literally an historic landmark. Back in 67 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 4: my ute, you there weren't planes, there weren't trains. 68 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 2: Tom. 69 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 4: You went west in the car with four screaming kids 70 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 4: and no air conditioning, and you went out to the 71 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 4: National Parks and there were these little gorgeous nineteen sixties 72 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 4: mad men bungalows. Yes, and I expect Rock Hudson and 73 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 4: Kim Novak to walk through the door at any moment. 74 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: These are definitely bungalows. So for people who haven't been 75 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 2: to the Jackson Lake Lodge, they're kind of rustic. There's 76 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 2: no TV. There's a warning sign in the room saying 77 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 2: if you encounter mice or bats, please call staff, don't 78 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 2: try to trap them yourself. 79 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 4: Take ants. 80 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 3: I haven't, but it doesn't get too hot. But there's 81 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 3: no air conditioning either. 82 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, air conditioning has at to option. 83 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 3: How many times you've been here to Tom, I have 84 00:03:58,240 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 3: been here roughly. 85 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 4: I haven't kept count like Davos, but I've been roughly 86 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 4: seventeen years. What I'll say is off and on, but 87 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 4: I've had a good fortune of being here most of 88 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 4: the maximum tension years. 89 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: Tracey, you know what I really like about here, And 90 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: Tom mentioned Davos, which is why I bring it up. 91 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: In Davos, you know, they clear out all the civilians, 92 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: like when all the everyone comes, like you cannot get 93 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 1: into that whole town. Here, it's like we're around by tourists, 94 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: like anyone could actually just sort of come hang out 95 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 1: here and sort of like sit on one of the 96 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: couches and the Jackson like lodge. You just got to 97 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: like buy like a hotel room or something. It's like 98 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: a much more like peaceful vibe. 99 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 2: It's true. I did actually have this older Australian couple 100 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 2: that came up to me and they were looking at 101 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg TV setup and they sort of tapped me 102 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 2: on the shoulder and they were like, what's going on, 103 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 2: what's happening? And I was trying to get them very 104 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 2: excited about Oh, Jerome pal is here and maybe even 105 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 2: someone from the RBA is around. They were into it. 106 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 4: Yeah, Bud Nethel was once on the coach. They're hanging 107 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 4: out with this guy sixty five years old Gray they're 108 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 4: talking about so how sure it's the wonderful Irvin King from. 109 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 3: The Baker, It's great. What have you learned. What struck 110 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 3: you about Paul speech. 111 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 4: Well, well, not much about Paul speech. I mean I 112 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 4: listened to it. It's in my ear and we've got 113 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 4: all sorts of production issues going on at the time, 114 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 4: So to be honest, I don't hear it word for 115 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 4: word like you guys do, and Tracy really sits on 116 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 4: it and listens. But different than any other meeting, even 117 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 4: CenTra and Portugal, this is a meeting where you have 118 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 4: no clue what the zeitgeist is going to be until 119 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 4: deep into Friday. And the one word for me this 120 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:38,239 Speaker 4: unique moment in our history is complexity. Everyone of every 121 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 4: shape and flavor is overwhelmed by the complexities of the moment. 122 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right. And do you the people 123 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 2: you speak to, do they express much anxiety about this 124 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 2: current period of economic time or is the vibe very much? Well, 125 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 2: last year pwe was talking about how we'd have to 126 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 2: have lots of pain in order to bring down to 127 00:05:58,040 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 2: claci media. 128 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the media. That's a no. 129 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 2: No. 130 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 4: These are people, is you all know? These are the 131 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 4: people who were first in their fourth grade class in 132 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 4: math and they had a meeting in June with their 133 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 4: parents to say, well, we think he should jump to 134 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 4: sixth grade. They were those kind of people, and so 135 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 4: they have a huge arrogance about how smart they are, 136 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 4: but also a built in humility, and the humility right 137 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 4: now is maxed out. I don't care if they're you know, 138 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 4: Barry Iiking Green of Berkeley or the youngest peahd he 139 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 4: was lucky to breathe the air. Here, they're all humbled 140 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,280 Speaker 4: beyond belief about how wrong they've been. 141 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: I mean, I I the final paragraph. I think of 142 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: Powell's speech. He talked about the cloudy skies, which I 143 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: you know, because the whole question is like the stars 144 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 1: are a star neutral rate, which. 145 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 3: You know, one knows what they are. 146 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: And I think, you know, Paul expressed that in the 147 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 1: speech that it's like the guy's are cloudy. Even if 148 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: even if such stars even exist, it does not seem 149 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: like we could see them right now. 150 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 4: I live in New York where there's like one damn 151 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 4: star in the sky. It's our terrorists. If you think 152 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 4: it's Stevie Winwood and Arc of the Diver, it's one 153 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 4: of the stars on the record album You Come out Here, 154 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 4: and it's the stars were in the sky last night. 155 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 4: You know, there'll be a lot of analysis. Frankly, you 156 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 4: guys are better at that than me. It'll be hawkish, 157 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 4: hawkish and this level in that. I think they're overwhelmed 158 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 4: by the non economic, non monetary things, and to me, 159 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 4: it's just an extension of the pandemic and we really 160 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 4: don't know where we are in that continuum. 161 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems like they're struggling with some of the 162 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 2: real economy aspects of this. And you saw it in 163 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 2: Pal's speech where he was talking about supply chain pressures 164 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 2: starting to ease, what's going on in housing. It feels 165 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 2: like that's not that's not their comfort spot. 166 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 4: It's oh decidedly not. I mean to take it academic, 167 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 4: and to take a structure like a Hicksey and Islm structure, 168 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 4: which is, you know, blah blah blah nineteen thirty eight. 169 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 4: I don't think that's in play right now. You let 170 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 4: meet with a Phillips curve, which was what fifty two. 171 00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 4: I'm going to think, London School of Economics. None of 172 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 4: this is working right now. I don't know what the 173 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 4: twenty twenty fourth theory is. It waits odd lots to 174 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 4: tell us. 175 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: You brought up nothing is working right now, and I'm convinced. 176 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I did a TV hit yesterday. We were 177 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: talking about the disinflation and something Someone's like, well, in 178 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: a year, will we have more sense? And I kind 179 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: of think that, like this is going to be a 180 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: period that not next year, not ten years, like for 181 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: twenty and thirty years, people will be writing papers about 182 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 1: this period right now and what happened. And I suspect 183 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: we are not going to ever really have something that 184 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: resembles a consensus. 185 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 4: I strongly agree with that. My book of the Summer 186 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 4: is Olivia Blanchard, very controversial right now, we don't need 187 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 4: to go into it. But the answer is Olivier has 188 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 4: this phrase for all the stuff we don't get, called 189 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 4: other factors. It's like an academic usage with quotes around it, 190 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,439 Speaker 4: and that we're overwhelmed by the other factors. I mean, 191 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 4: look at what we have right now, Tracy. We've got 192 00:08:54,240 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 4: labor dynamics, pandemic dynamics, the uaw thing that's happening, Pharaoh's gone, 193 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 4: He's going to make one hundred and seventy thousand a 194 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 4: year at UPS. And then you got the fact the 195 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 4: Red Sox beat the Houston anstro of seventy to one. 196 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 4: There are other factors out there that matter. 197 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 2: There's a lot happening, that's for sure. So on that 198 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:19,199 Speaker 2: note she jured me. This is called a pivot. This 199 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 2: is what I learned from the Central Bank meetings. Hot 200 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 2: a pivot. So on this note, I'm curious you've been 201 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,719 Speaker 2: going for a long time. One thing I was kind 202 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 2: of surprised about is so much of the focus from us, 203 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 2: you know, reporters here to talk about this event is 204 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 2: on the short term policy outlook. But the event itself 205 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 2: is supposed to be discussing the longer term analytical framework 206 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 2: for monetary policy. How has the sort of emphasis of 207 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 2: this symposium changed over time? 208 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 4: Tom Hanig and I had a nice chat out front 209 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 4: of the door here at the lodge. Tom Hanig reinvented 210 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 4: Jackson Hole in the Kansas City FED. This started for 211 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 4: years ago with Paul Volker. They said, Paul, I know 212 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 4: you hate conferences, you don't want to travel. There's fly fishing. 213 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 4: So I Volker showed up, literally, I kid you not. 214 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 4: That's how they started this thing, and off the top 215 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 4: of my head, eighty two. 216 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,559 Speaker 2: Well it worked. 217 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 4: And it still works to this day. But they had 218 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 4: to get reinvigorated, and Tom A. Honig did that his 219 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 4: head of the Kansas City Fed before Esther George. But 220 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 4: what Honig had to do was police the modern media, 221 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 4: and they it's sort of been a you know, you 222 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 4: see it. You come out of the lodge folks, and 223 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 4: there's this huge mountain range picture and there's this place 224 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 4: where they take the photos of the central bankers, and 225 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 4: off to the right it looks like the Republican National Convention. 226 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 4: You know, it's like three networks lined up everything but 227 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 4: the satellite trucks and the And the answer is that 228 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 4: Kansas City Fed has had to police the short term 229 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 4: analysis with papers looking out thirty years. Yeah. 230 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: It does seem, however, in different years. And obviously the 231 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: chairman doesn't not every year that most years the chairman 232 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: gives a speech. But every once in a while I 233 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: think that German doesn't come. Yeah, I think it's twenty 234 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: I feel like twenty. 235 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 3: Thirteen or something. 236 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, but it feels like to some extent it's sort 237 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:12,479 Speaker 1: of the dial goes back and forth about how academic 238 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: they're so like right now and last year was probably 239 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 1: more famous. 240 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 3: You know, there's like that pow'll. 241 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 1: Give an eight minute speech in twenty twenty two, which 242 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 1: I've characterized as like, we're not here to make friends, 243 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: We're here to get inflation done. This year, I think 244 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 1: this speech was closer to maybe like fifteen or twenty 245 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 1: minutes or something like that, but still like not a 246 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: particularly academic speech. But if you go back to twenty 247 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: nineteen or twenty eighteen and Polo speech is very much 248 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: like talk about the different stars, So it feels like 249 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: you sort of get a feel for the moment based 250 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: on how academic that speech. 251 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 4: And sometimes this happens, and it happened. I believe it 252 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 4: was a droggy. It may have been thrche, but the 253 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,719 Speaker 4: moment here is the European Central Bank, in my conversation 254 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 4: with Christine Linguard, is an example of the urgency in 255 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 4: in ECB to to September sixteenth and beyond and the 256 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 4: complete mystery of the europe An experiment. It makes us 257 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 4: look like virtual certitude. What we're doing, it's all insane. 258 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,319 Speaker 2: So when you come here, what are the goals? 259 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 4: Like? 260 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:13,719 Speaker 2: What would what constitutes a good Jackson hole for you? 261 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 4: And the tom han is to get me out of 262 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 4: a suit. He came up to me once and he said, 263 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 4: can we lose the tie? 264 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 5: What do you wear BOTHA? 265 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 4: I traveled when I first joined Bloomberg. Actually I wore 266 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:28,719 Speaker 4: a bolo once. We interviewed the art director of mad Men, 267 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 4: and I wore a bolo. That was some endorsement from 268 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 4: mad Men or something. I can't remember, but it at 269 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 4: Jackson's Hole. I travel like I always travel, which is 270 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 4: as simple as I can, because I used to travel 271 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 4: NonStop for the company. And you know, I started out 272 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 4: like Audrey Hepburn and charade with seven suitcases and a 273 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 4: hat box, and then I got down to three suitcases, 274 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 4: and now it's like you get to one. 275 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 2: I did ask Mike McKee, who we are about to 276 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 2: speak to, actually how many hats he typically brings with 277 00:12:57,760 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 2: him to Jackson Hole. I was disappointed to hear it 278 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 2: was only one. I imagine him Audrey Hepburn style with 279 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:04,559 Speaker 2: like seven hat boxes on the plane. 280 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: But I didn't realize he's a he's a western man. 281 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,959 Speaker 3: He's Colorado. So this is a joke come out? Did 282 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 3: I make that. 283 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 4: He's milking every Western jun kid, the. 284 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: Economic Western He's like, this is my natural habitat. 285 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, he's north of here. He's up by Jellystone Park 286 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 4: in Idaho or someplace he's here. Then he'll go down 287 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 4: to Arizona. What he's got the whole Mountain time thing. 288 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:28,199 Speaker 4: He's nailed it. 289 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: Well, now we have to ask Mike about this. 290 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:30,680 Speaker 5: Nice true. 291 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 2: Okay, one more question from me. For people out there 292 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 2: who are trying to understand Jackson Hole, what's your most 293 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 2: important piece of advice? What should they be looking out 294 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 2: for the thing? 295 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 4: And particularly for younger people, this is so true social 296 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 4: media podcasts, The blah blah I do doesn't cut it. 297 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,719 Speaker 4: You have to read the material. And the material can 298 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 4: be books, obviously, it can be papers, it can be 299 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 4: longer commentaries. You know, what's what we did when we 300 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 4: were kids. You read the Economist to cover. I mean, 301 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 4: that's how you do it. There's no substitute for reading. 302 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 4: There's just absolutely no substitute for reading. That's just it's 303 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 4: as simple as that. 304 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 2: Did you read all the papers? 305 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 4: Jeff? 306 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: I hate to admit it, but Tom is totally right. 307 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: And this is like it's taken me like forty three 308 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: years of my life too, like acknowledge, like actually, you 309 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: kind of have to do the reading. And if you 310 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: read an academic paper, you can't just like for years, 311 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: I just read the abstract and then skipped to the 312 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: end and look for a chart that I could screenshot 313 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: and tweet. And I have to admit that there might 314 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: be actually some good meat in the middle. 315 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:37,479 Speaker 2: The good stuff's in the footnotes. 316 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 3: I know, all right. 317 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: My last question, you know, a few more months of 318 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 1: this year, three FED meetings before the end of the year. 319 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 3: What are you watching for? 320 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 4: Like? 321 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: What do you what do you what are you looking 322 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: out for for the rest of the year, both from 323 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: the MACRO and the FED, like, what do you what 324 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: interest you read the. 325 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 4: Word I over use the TV. People will say to me, 326 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 4: why are you saying vector? No one knows what that is. 327 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 4: I think a lot of people know what a vector is. 328 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 4: It's a straight line essentially, but in two or three 329 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 4: dimensional space to the end of this year, with all 330 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 4: that we've got, Joe, it's a massive three dimensional space 331 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 4: right now. I want to know the power of any 332 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 4: of these vectors, like inflation. I want to know which 333 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 4: way they're going. I have no idea what the vector 334 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 4: is on Javas claims, no idea at all, but I 335 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 4: want to see established to the end of the year, 336 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 4: any belief in these vectors. Well, you know, we make 337 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 4: jokes about I'm so pessimistic. I'm in the triple leverage 338 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 4: doll cash front. I haven't usually no, no, there's a 339 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 4: new offering coming up in February. It's forbule leverage. But 340 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 4: the answer is I have a huge optimism. It's like 341 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 4: Churchill said about America, We'll figure it out at some point. 342 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 4: I have a huge optimism forward about our exceptionalism on 343 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 4: technology getting us into twenty twenty four. 344 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 2: Well, Jackson Hole is definitely a place that makes you 345 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 2: believe in America. 346 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: I was dming with someone early like you need to 347 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: travel for America is so much, so. 348 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 3: Much, Tom, that was a blast, so much time. 349 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 4: Can I take them out? Yes? 350 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: And now let's let's chat with our colleague Mike mcka. 351 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: Mike McKeith, thank you so much for joining us. Happy 352 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: to be here, Mike, really important question to start. So 353 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: Tom said, you're not really Western. He's like, oh, Mike 354 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: mc so, he just pretends to be a cowboy. What 355 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: what's the truths there? 356 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 5: I will gladly take Tom out on the range with me. 357 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 5: I grew up in Colorado, grew up writing, come out 358 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 5: here every year and uh help my friends on the ranch, 359 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 5: and so yeah, I mean I can cowboy. 360 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 1: Okay, because you for those who haven't seen the pictures, 361 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: Mike wears a cowboy. A lot of people like to 362 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: dress up, but you know, I think Mike is a 363 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 1: little more credible than most. 364 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 2: I think Mike probably has the best Jackson Hole wardrobe. 365 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 2: I put it that way. 366 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 5: Yes, it's what I would wear. I mean, this is 367 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 5: this is Jackson Hole. 368 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 3: It's Jackson Hole. 369 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 2: How many hats do you actually have with you? 370 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 5: Well, I only have one hat with me. I own seven. 371 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 3: And how many times have you've been out here? 372 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 5: I don't know how an exact count, but the first 373 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 5: time I came was nineteen ninety seven, and most years 374 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 5: between ninety seven and now I've been here. 375 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 2: So one thing I didn't realize about Jackson Hall. I 376 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 2: kind of assume that, you know, media was invited and 377 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 2: that media would have access to the actual conference. But 378 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 2: that's not the case. They have a kind of weird system. 379 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 2: Can you describe that to us? 380 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 5: Basically, it's one representative from each news media organization and 381 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Radio TV, and unfortunately you guys are blumped under 382 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 5: that gets one, and Bloomberg News gets one, and then 383 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 5: the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, et cetera. 384 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:43,439 Speaker 5: And so the media presence is there, but it's not huge. 385 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: So we're talking about this with Tom earlier. But it 386 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:48,880 Speaker 1: feels like the. 387 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 3: Dial changes from time to time. 388 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,199 Speaker 1: And some years it's this is clear, you know, the 389 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 1: interest is in something very academic, and then some years 390 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 1: it feels like the interest is in how fast is 391 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: the FED GETNA raise right? And over the next three 392 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:04,719 Speaker 1: or four months. How does this ear feel different or 393 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:06,919 Speaker 1: similar to past Jackson halls You've. 394 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 5: Been Well, it's maybe a little more in the middle. 395 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 5: What happened basically was it was an it is an 396 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 5: academic conference. People think that something goes on in there 397 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:21,360 Speaker 5: that doesn't happen. It's academic economic papers with econometrics math 398 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 5: in there, and they talk about things that might happen 399 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 5: in the future and in terms of economics. But the 400 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 5: chairman always gets to give a speech. And in two 401 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 5: thousand and nine Ben Bernanke had something he wanted to 402 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 5: say because this was just before they were going to 403 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 5: start QE, and so he announced it here and then 404 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 5: the following year he announced Round two because they still 405 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 5: had the recession and the economic problems, and then that 406 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 5: got Wall Street's attention, and it became obvious to central bankers, 407 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 5: to the chairman that they could make some news or 408 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 5: they could steer because not much as else is happening 409 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 5: in August anyway, and so some years when they've had 410 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 5: something to say, they've used this platform. Last year, Jay 411 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 5: Powell gave his famous eight minute slap the markets upside 412 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 5: the head speech and got a lot of attention. So 413 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 5: that didn't focus is everybody's attention on this year, and 414 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 5: he gave an economic outlook speech. I think he wanted 415 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 5: to set the predicate for going into September, but we 416 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 5: could easily go back to something anodyne next year. 417 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 2: What was your favorite Jackson hole? Is there one that 418 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,199 Speaker 2: stands out to you as a sort of seminal moment? 419 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 5: I think probably the most interesting seminal one was two 420 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 5: thousand and five. Alan Greenspan was retiring, and they set 421 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 5: this up as a sort of hay geography to Alan Greenspan, 422 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 5: because remember we had had the great moderation and productivity 423 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 5: gains and the Fed had its soft landing, and so 424 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 5: everybody was here to praise Alan Greenspan except for Ragaran Regin, 425 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 5: who was at the University chicag Go and then later 426 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 5: the governor of the Indian Central Bank. He came here 427 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,640 Speaker 5: and said, you guys are all missing it. We are 428 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 5: going to have a crisis because we've got this borrowing bubble. 429 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 5: And he was sort of ostracized by the economic community 430 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 5: and the people here until obviously he was proven right 431 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 5: and came back a couple of years later. 432 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 1: So I knew that Rogen had given that speech. I 433 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 1: didn't realize that was a jackson Hole speech, and I 434 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 1: certainly did not realize that it was essentially at you know, 435 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: the sort of big Allen Greenspan run at the party. 436 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 1: I hadn't realized the context of that before. 437 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, it was. It was kind of fascinating because he 438 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 5: stood it stood out so much from what everybody else 439 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 5: was saying. Because the John Clutchiche was the ECB president 440 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:47,400 Speaker 5: at the time, came here to talk about how great 441 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 5: Alan Greenspan was. 442 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 2: Is anyone getting ostracized this year? Is there someone we 443 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 2: should be paying more attention to? 444 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,239 Speaker 5: I think this year everybody is kind of welcome at 445 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 5: the table, even esther George, who has retired, is back 446 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 5: to see her old buddies, and I talked to her. 447 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 5: She said she's very happy to sit in the back 448 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 5: and not have to worry about it this year. 449 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: So something that we were talking about before is that, 450 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: you know, there's compared to last year obviously, when I think, 451 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 1: you know, CPI picked around nine percent. 452 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 3: The FED probably. 453 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 1: Feels and many central bankers probably feel better about things, 454 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,120 Speaker 1: but there's a few to you know, there's an uneasiness 455 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: right because no one really knows why inflation fell as 456 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,359 Speaker 1: fast as it did, given that we saw three and 457 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 1: a half percent unemployment, and no one really knows why 458 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 1: GDP growth seems to be accelerating in Q three despite 459 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 1: the FED having raised rates to five percent. And then 460 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: on top of that, you just have all these other 461 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: things going on. 462 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 3: What was the term that Tom. 463 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: Used started just all the flexity, other factors and vectors. 464 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 2: I think he said, very very tough vectors matter. 465 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,479 Speaker 5: That was a terrible time, Tom Dictionary somewhere. 466 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,199 Speaker 1: Can you talk a little bit like, you know, it 467 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: feels like we're just in a period of it's a cliche, 468 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 1: but just like real uncertainty about what is going on. 469 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 5: Well, two thoughts on that one is that coming into 470 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 5: this meeting. I talked earlier in the week with a 471 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 5: central banker who said, this is a tough one for 472 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 5: us because it was easy last year, right inflation, we 473 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,440 Speaker 5: know what we need to say. We're going to raise rates. 474 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 5: We're going to raise rates. We're going to raise rates 475 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 5: this year. We don't know what's going to happen, and 476 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 5: it's kind of hard to convince people that we don't 477 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,360 Speaker 5: know and we don't have a plan and we're going 478 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 5: to be data dependent. That was one thought. The other is, 479 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 5: if you remember in Jay Powell's speech he said we 480 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 5: are trying to navigate by the stars under cloudy skies. Well, 481 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 5: you'll appreciate this, Joe, because you're a musician. It's a 482 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 5: little bit like listening to an oldie, maybe an old 483 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 5: grateful dead song, and you remember the lyrics because you 484 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,359 Speaker 5: were around. That came from his two thousand and eight speech, 485 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 5: eighteen speech, his first speech here when he talked about 486 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,639 Speaker 5: about our star u stars, et cetera. And so I 487 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 5: think it was Jay Powell's little inside joke to everybody 488 00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 5: about we don't really know where we are now. 489 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 2: I have a media naval gazing question, which is, why 490 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 2: did this expectation that he was going to give some 491 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,679 Speaker 2: big r star policy stance come about anyway, because if 492 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 2: you look at the twenty eighteen speech, he was always 493 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 2: kind of doubtful about it, And of course he is 494 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:19,199 Speaker 2: not an economist by training, and so I don't know 495 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,679 Speaker 2: where that expectation came from that he was suddenly going 496 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,199 Speaker 2: to give a very academic speech about how maybe the 497 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 2: neutral rate was higher than we thought. 498 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:31,479 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not exactly sure. The estimates of the neutral 499 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 5: rate that the New York Fed did got suspended during 500 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,360 Speaker 5: the pandemic because the data weren't accurate enough to make 501 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 5: any kind of determination. They brought it back late this 502 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 5: spring in May, I think, and then you had some 503 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 5: articles about it that and whether or not it was accurate, 504 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 5: and John Williams view that we would see the neutral 505 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 5: rate fall back to where it was. And then this 506 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 5: week the Wall Street Journal wrote about our star debate 507 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,400 Speaker 5: actually suggested it wasn't going to come down like John Williams, 508 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 5: but it wasn't in the context of a Jay Pole speech. 509 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 5: But some of the people somewhere picked up and ran 510 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 5: with it. And then what happens is the Wall Street 511 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 5: economists start writing about it because they're reading it in 512 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 5: the paper, and then the people who are writing for 513 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 5: the papers pick up the Wall Street economists things, and 514 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 5: it becomes this circular thing. And if you knew the fad, 515 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 5: you knew he's never going to talk about that because 516 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 5: he doesn't like our star and because it's too imprecise, 517 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 5: there's just no. 518 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 3: Way to know. 519 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 1: I think that description of how the news works, which 520 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: is like, hey, I saw someone else writing about that, 521 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,159 Speaker 1: and then the economist is like, well, I got to 522 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: weigh in, and then we write about is like one 523 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,640 Speaker 1: of the best descriptions of I mean, we all hope 524 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: to avoid it, right, we hope to avoid group thing 525 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: or echo chambers. But that was probably one of because 526 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: people like look at the media and like all it 527 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 1: everyone's like there is if it's a conspiracy or like 528 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,640 Speaker 1: there's some we all get back together, but really it's 529 00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: just a bunch of people looking around at each other. 530 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 3: Is like that talking about it, Well, we better talk 531 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 3: about it. 532 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,879 Speaker 5: Too, Yeah, And everybody was trying to figure out what 533 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,879 Speaker 5: to say about Jackson Hall this year. Because of the uncertainty, 534 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 5: there wasn't any kind of obvious speech for j Pidle 535 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 5: to give. 536 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 2: So the other thing I wanted to ask you is 537 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 2: just on this question of uncertainty and why inflation has 538 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,199 Speaker 2: come down. I haven't heard anyone here utter the dreaded 539 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,360 Speaker 2: word transitory for obvious reasons, but it does feel like 540 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 2: there is an element of the supply side creeping in here. 541 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 2: So in Pal's speech, for instance, you see him talking 542 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 2: about maybe some of the supply constraints are starting to ease. 543 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 2: Maybe that's a factor. And then one of the papers 544 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,199 Speaker 2: that was presented was all about the supply chain and 545 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 2: reshoring away from China and things like that. Do you 546 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 2: see more economists and policymakers paying attention to the sort 547 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 2: of real economy aspect of inflation. 548 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 5: Well, I think everybody is. They're looking for evidence that 549 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 5: what they're seeing with inflation is going to last. I 550 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,919 Speaker 5: heard this phrase the other day and I thought it 551 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 5: was great. After a period of long COVID, we've got 552 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 5: long transitory. Yeah, it is a lot of supply side 553 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 5: stuff that the FED was right would go back down, 554 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,160 Speaker 5: but they got the timing wrong. 555 00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,199 Speaker 1: I just want to say, you know, you mentioned the 556 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: grateful dead. So when I walked in I got here 557 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 1: on Wednesday afternoon and there was like, no one here. 558 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 1: And in the lodge I saw Chairman Powell and he 559 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 1: was chatting with CNBC's Steve Leishman, and I was like, 560 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 1: I wanted to introduce me, but I couldn't think of 561 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 1: anything to say. 562 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 3: You know, I was like, I don't. 563 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: But in retrospect, I was like, Oh, that's like that's 564 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 1: the Grateful Dead Caucus right there, because I think. 565 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 5: Leaman plays in a tribute. 566 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 3: Baseman is a dead head. 567 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 1: Powell is a dead head, so I should have made 568 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: some crack and Steve, Steve's a competitor but a friend, 569 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: and he knows members of the dead and uh he 570 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,360 Speaker 1: talks to them all the time, and so I'm sure 571 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,439 Speaker 1: he was telling j Powell, we could maybe introduce you. 572 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 3: That should have been my lines a deadline you're in. 573 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,920 Speaker 1: Also, I do think that staring at stars under a 574 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 1: cloudy sky would be like a great thirteen minute Robert 575 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 1: Hunter instrumental Jam instrumental. So what do you We asked 576 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,360 Speaker 1: Tom this earlier, but you know, like for the coming months, 577 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 1: and the irony is, of course this is an academic conference, 578 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 1: but like ninety nine percent of the media attention is like, yeah, 579 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: but okay, what does it mean for the next three 580 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 1: FED meeting or whatever, like the most narrow version of 581 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,119 Speaker 1: the focus. But I'm going to ask you that in 582 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 1: terms of like what are you looking for now? 583 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 5: Well, I think we will probably see relatively restrained inflation, 584 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,119 Speaker 5: probably rise a little bit, just on base effects and 585 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 5: things like that. But if we can maintain a sort 586 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,359 Speaker 5: of level inflation rate, you'll see the FED on hold 587 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 5: for September. We'll watch the inflation rate and the unemployment 588 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 5: rate for November, and they might act. Then the trick 589 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 5: is going to be if they don't think they need 590 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 5: to raise right away, what do they say to keep 591 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 5: people from thinking we're done? If they're still worried about 592 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 5: inflation possibly coming back, they have a December meeting, then 593 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 5: they meet again in late January. Do they leave a 594 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 5: rate increase as a live possibility. That'll be the thing 595 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 5: to watch for. 596 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,879 Speaker 2: I think I have just one more question, which is 597 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 2: what's your favorite Jackson Hole moment? I just want to 598 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,200 Speaker 2: hear the Jackson hole lore, like, did Alan Greenspan wants 599 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,400 Speaker 2: run into a grizzly bear or something like that. 600 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 5: No. Don Cone, who was vice chairman, was known as 601 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,120 Speaker 5: a slave driver on the trails because when they would 602 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,199 Speaker 5: go hiking, he would just power up the trails and 603 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,680 Speaker 5: people had to follow him. But I think the most 604 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 5: fun that people have had is when they've taken us 605 00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 5: out a couple of times to ranch for the horse whisperer, 606 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 5: to see horse whisper training of horses. And then of 607 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 5: course there are those of us who slip away to 608 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 5: the Jackson Hole Rodeo and have a great deal. 609 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 3: We're taking me and Tracy at the rodeo tomorrow. 610 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 5: All right, we're all going to the rodeo. 611 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 2: Thank you, Mike. Wait, I just thought of one more question. 612 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 2: I heard a rumor that you have a plaque at 613 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 2: the bar, the famous bar in Jackson, the. 614 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 5: Million dollar Cowboy Bar. 615 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 4: Yeah. 616 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, I try to hide that, but there have been 617 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,720 Speaker 5: some memorable moments there, but we can't talk about them 618 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 5: on that What happens as. 619 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 1: Soon as we turn off the microphone, we'll get this. Yeah, 620 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 1: there we go, Mike mckaith, thank you so much for 621 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 1: coming off here. 622 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 3: Tracy. I love talking. I love our colleagues. 623 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 5: You know, what do you do? 624 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: You remember the old ESPN commercials? Did you ever see 625 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: those where it's. 626 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 2: Like you're gonna have to describe them. 627 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 3: To me, it's like. 628 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 1: They're walking through the ESPN grounds and there's all these 629 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 1: like famous athletes just doing stuff like filling up the 630 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: coffee pot and like raking and stuff like that. That's 631 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,760 Speaker 1: what I often feel like that working at Bloomberg, it's 632 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 1: like it's I love getting to run it talk to 633 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: our college. 634 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 2: No, it's absolutely fantastic. And I love hearing the old 635 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 2: sort of Jackson Hole war from Mike and Tom. I 636 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 2: gotta say, we need to set up like a satellite 637 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 2: au Lolot's office here in Jackson. 638 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 3: Hole for listeners. 639 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 1: All weekend, Tracy has just been talking about why can't 640 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 1: we have a Bloomberg jackson Hole bureau like twenty four 641 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 1: or seven. 642 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 2: I would move here in an instant. 643 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 1: Tracy is like I would live in a Bloomberg dorm, 644 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: kind of like a fox Con dorm if it meant 645 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: I could just be in Jackson Hole all the time. 646 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 2: Joe, what's your favorite Jackson Hole moment? 647 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 4: Uh? 648 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 1: Well, I really enjoyed hiking. I really every morning. The 649 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: view I just like have not gotten over, Like the 650 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 1: view of the Grand Tetant behind the lodge here is incredible. 651 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 2: I am looking forward to actually going into Jackson tonight 652 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 2: and going to the Silver Dollar Bar and trying to 653 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 2: find Mike's plaque. 654 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to that. 655 00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 1: Should we talk ekon for a second. 656 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 3: Should we talk about. 657 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 2: You don't just want to talk about Jackson Hole? Yes, okay. 658 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 2: I actually thought Pal's speech leaned a little bit dubbish, 659 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 2: and I've seen it. It's sort of like a warsh 660 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 2: test I think for everyone's preferred policy positions at this 661 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,160 Speaker 2: point in time. Because I've seen some people say it 662 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 2: was hawkish and others say it was dubbish. I lean 663 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 2: towards the dubbish camp. He's saying that policy is restrictive. 664 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 2: I think they're gonna have to see a really significant 665 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,640 Speaker 2: deterioration in the data to justify any sort of rate cut. 666 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think like the market is coming here 667 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 1: on to your view, and like even a month ago 668 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 1: there or like more rate cuts priced in, and I think, like, yeah, 669 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 1: it's like it would be tough to make. We're still 670 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 1: the FED is a long way from feeling like they'd 671 00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,040 Speaker 1: be comfortable stopping the hikes, let alone cutting rates. 672 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,560 Speaker 3: I think, like, you know, both. 673 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: Tom and Mike talked about it, but like it still 674 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 1: feels like if there were a way to measure uncertainty. 675 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, it would be high, be very high right now. 676 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 3: For so many different reasons. And I do think like. 677 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 1: You brought this up with Tom, which is that like 678 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 1: things like supply chains, things like the effects of Russia's 679 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine, et cetera, like climate spending. I don't 680 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 1: think there's like particularly comfortable ground for monetary economists who 681 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 1: are sort of like it's you know, navigate these waters. 682 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 1: But like, I think this is like kind of uncharted 683 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: territory for me. 684 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 2: Right, you're telling a bunch of economists that used car 685 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 2: prices are now a significant portion of inflation, and so 686 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,720 Speaker 2: they all need to become experts in the used car market. 687 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, and they have to understand like a semiconductors that 688 00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 1: are going to allow for the expansion, Like they're all 689 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 1: these sort of distinct variables. 690 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, shall we leave it there for now? 691 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 5: Let's leave it there. 692 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. 693 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway and. 694 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 695 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 1: Follow our guests Tom Keane. He's at Tom Keen and 696 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:46,479 Speaker 1: Michael McKee at mconomy. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at 697 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 1: Carmen Armant and dash O Bennett at Dashbot, and our 698 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:55,120 Speaker 1: special Jackson Hole guest producer Sebastian Escobar at Under the 699 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 1: Sea vass. Follow all of the Bloomberg podcasts under the 700 00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 1: handle at Podcasts and from Oddlots content. Go to Bloomberg 701 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: dot com slash Oddlogs, where we have transcripts, a blog, 702 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,760 Speaker 1: and a newsletter, and check out the discord Discord dot 703 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 1: gg slash odd Lots. There's a great econ room in 704 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 1: their listeners are chatting twenty four to seven about these. 705 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 2: Topics specifically, and if you enjoy Oddlots, please leave us 706 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 2: a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening.