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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Friday, the twenty fifth of August in London.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. I'm Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 1: Coming up today. One of the ECB's most influential policy

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Speaker 1: makers says it's much too early to consider pausing interest

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Speaker 1: rate hikes. British and American intelligence officials say Putin is

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Speaker 1: likely to have approved you have ge any Progosians assassination.

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Speaker 1: Plus a mug shot moment, Donald Trump becomes the first

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Speaker 1: former US president in history to have a police photo taken.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories and

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Speaker 1: starting with central bankers gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming to

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Speaker 1: discuss global monetary policy. The ECB's governing council member, Joachim

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Speaker 1: Nagel says he isn't convinced inflation is cool enough for

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Speaker 1: the block to halt rate hikes. Speaking to Bloomberg, the

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Speaker 1: Bundesbank president said any decision will hinge on additional data

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Speaker 1: in the coming weeks.

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Speaker 2: Inflation is coming down, core is still sticky, and so

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Speaker 2: the next months we will get more information about this.

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Speaker 2: It's for me much too early to think about a posse.

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Speaker 2: I think we have to wait for the next numbers.

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Speaker 1: Yor Kim Nagel says he doesn't expect Germany to fall

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Speaker 1: into recession, citing a better outlook for next year. Despite

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Speaker 1: a week third quarter and just after nine pm London time,

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Speaker 1: we'll bring you an exclusive Bloomberg interview with European Center

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Speaker 1: Bank president Christine Legaud was staying with the central bankers

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Speaker 1: gathering in Wyoming. Two Federal Reserve officials say the US

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Speaker 1: is near the end of its hiking cycle. Boston Fed

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Speaker 1: President Susan Collins says we might even be there already.

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Speaker 3: I have said that we may be near, We could

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Speaker 3: even be at a place where we would hold. But

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Speaker 3: certainly additional increments are possible, and we need to look

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Speaker 3: holistically and be really patient right now and not try

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Speaker 3: to get ahead of what the data will tell us

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Speaker 3: as an unfold.

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Speaker 1: However, Collins and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker disagree on

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Speaker 1: the potential need for more rate hikes. Join us to

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Speaker 1: hear cherit. Jerome Powells Jackson Hope speaks live on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio and Television at three pm London time. Toronto Dominion

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Speaker 1: Bank says it's cooperating with an investigation by US authorities.

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Speaker 1: More from Bloomberg's dou Kresner.

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Speaker 4: The inquiries are related to TD's compliance with rules aimed

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Speaker 4: at fighting money laundering, and the US Department of Justice

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Speaker 4: is among those making request. TD said it's cooperating with

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Speaker 4: authorities and is pursuing efforts to enhance its Bank Secrecy

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Speaker 4: Act Anti money Laundering compliance program. TD is Canada's second

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Speaker 4: largest bank. It made the disclosure in its third quarter

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Speaker 4: financial results on Thursday. TD also said it may face

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Speaker 4: penalties as a result of the probe in New York.

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Speaker 4: I'm Doug Prisoner Bloomberg Gay Break Europe.

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Speaker 1: UK consumer confidence bands back this month as strong wage

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Speaker 1: growth boosts household finances. JFK's measure of sentiment rows to

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Speaker 1: minus twenty five in August. That's the second highest reading

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Speaker 1: of the last twelve months. While still remaining overallly negative.

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Speaker 1: Consumer confidence has improved this year as UK economic growth

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Speaker 1: continues to outperform forecasts well. Despite that, UK homeowners are

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Speaker 1: taking tough steps to shore up their finances. Bloomberg's James

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Speaker 1: Wilcock has more.

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Speaker 5: Monetary policy works, but not always in the way you

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Speaker 5: might predict. With the average person facing a two hundred

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Speaker 5: and twenty pounds boost to their monthly bills of day mortgage.

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Speaker 5: A third of those looking to refinance in the next

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Speaker 5: year are taking on extra shifts or side jobs. Online

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Speaker 5: freelance platform Indeed Flex also found more than a half

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Speaker 5: are cutting back on spending on takeaways and holidays. It's

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Speaker 5: a burden falling largely on younger homeowners, with thirty percent

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Speaker 5: of those affected being under thirty five. In London, James

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Speaker 5: Wilcock Bloomberg day Break.

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Speaker 1: Europe, British and American intelligence officials say that You've Genny

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Speaker 1: Progosian's death in a plane crash was probably an assassination

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Speaker 1: approved by Vladimir Putin. Bloomberg's Ed Baxter reports.

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Speaker 6: The Pentagon says that a Shess might has progotion on

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Speaker 6: board and killed. Brigadier General pat Ryder says it does

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Speaker 6: not appear to be a surface to air Mischelho took

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Speaker 6: it down. He says it definitely will change Wagner moving forward.

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Speaker 7: For aw intents and purposes, they have their combat effectiveness

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Speaker 7: has been diminished and they are no longer a significant

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Speaker 7: factor when it comes to the conflict inside Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: Now, UK is also working on the assumption that it

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Speaker 6: was brought down deliberately. Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed

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Speaker 6: his condolences. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg day Break Europe.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's haunted him south in as in Atlanta jail

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Speaker 1: to be booked on state charges that he conspired to

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Speaker 1: overturn the result of the twenty twenty presidential election in Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Speaking to reporters at Atlanta Airport after his release, the

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Speaker 1: former president says, it was a sad day for America.

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Speaker 6: So what has taken place here is a travesty of justice.

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Speaker 2: We did nothing wrong.

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Speaker 7: I did nothing wrong, and everybody knows that I've never

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Speaker 7: had such support.

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Speaker 2: And that goes with the other ones too. What they're

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Speaker 2: doing is election interfered, and they're trying to interfere with

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Speaker 2: the an election.

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Speaker 1: Trump maintains his innocence but has become the first former

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Speaker 1: president to have his mug shot taken. He was in

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Speaker 1: the jail for about twenty minutes and his arraignment is

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Speaker 1: expected early next month. So those are our top stories

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Speaker 1: this morning. On the markets, the MSCI Specific Index one

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Speaker 1: point two percent lower. Euro stocks fifty futures are two

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Speaker 1: tenths lower. As well as the tenure treasury yield is

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Speaker 1: a basis point higher at four point two five percent. Well,

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Speaker 1: if you want an interesting read this morning, I highly

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Speaker 1: recommend a gripping tale from our legal reporter Catherine Gemmel

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Speaker 1: about how two teenage hackers in the UK cracked in Vidia,

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Speaker 1: Grand Theft Auto and Uber as well. It's a deep

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Speaker 1: dive into the legal documents around these two young people

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Speaker 1: who somehow got the better of the biggest US technology companies,

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Speaker 1: compiled from London court proceding documents, witness testimonies, police investigation

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Speaker 1: and also sources in the cybersecurity industry. The detail of

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Speaker 1: how they got access to some of these companies private information,

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Speaker 1: particularly leaking details of the new Grand Theft Auto game.

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Speaker 1: It's absolutely fascinating. Highly recommend that read from Catherine Gemmel

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Speaker 1: this morning, how two UK teen hackers cracked in video rockstars,

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Speaker 1: GTA and Uber. Well, let's turn out to get more

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Speaker 1: details on the annual gathering of Central bankers and Jackson

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Speaker 1: Hole already giving us diverging opinions from central bankers on

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Speaker 1: where rates will go next. The ECB's Government Council member

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Speaker 1: Joakim Nagle says it's much too early to consider pausing

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Speaker 1: rate hikes, while two Fed officials have signaled that policymakers

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Speaker 1: may be close to being done with interest rate increases,

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Speaker 1: Our executive editor for Asian Markets, Paul Dobson, joins us.

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Speaker 1: Now for more, Paul, let's start with Joachim Nagle's comments.

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Speaker 1: Then we've had PMI data for the Eurozone this week

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Speaker 1: showing softness in many of the major economies. He's not ready, though,

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Speaker 1: for a pause at the ECB.

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Speaker 8: No, I've spoken like a true bundesbanker. A good morning, Stephen,

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Speaker 8: good to be with you.

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Speaker 7: Yes.

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Speaker 8: So, I think Ogle's view is, you know, to the

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Speaker 8: far hawkish side of where the ECB is right now,

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Speaker 8: still worried about inflation still above five percent. He says,

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Speaker 8: you know, that's not our mission complete. We've got to

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Speaker 8: get it all the way down to two percent and

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Speaker 8: be confident that it's going to stay there. And I'm

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Speaker 8: not confident that we've done enough to get it there yet,

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Speaker 8: which is why he's looking for more hikes, which I think,

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Speaker 8: you know, kind of isn't the view of the entire

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Speaker 8: governing councilor of the ECB. I think there's quite a

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Speaker 8: broad spread there others would like to wait and see,

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Speaker 8: having done all these hikes, whether that starts to feed

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Speaker 8: through and whether the trend can continue even with interest

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Speaker 8: rates at these levels. I think market pricing wise, you know,

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Speaker 8: there's also a lack of conviction or we're not convinced

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Speaker 8: that there's going to be more heges coming through from

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Speaker 8: the ECB. Sort of half a hike priced in more

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Speaker 8: or less I think for the rest of the year.

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Speaker 8: So it's fifty to fifty whether they go again or not,

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Speaker 8: but not too much more left to reload, which would

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Speaker 8: be interesting, you know. Like you said, the PMI data

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Speaker 8: that we had this week was absolutely diabolical, the services

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Speaker 8: disappointing as well as the manufacturing still looking weak. So

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Speaker 8: you know, it.

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Speaker 9: Depends on your view.

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Speaker 8: If you think ACB has to defeat inflation at all costs,

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Speaker 8: regardless of whether it causes a recession, then of course

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Speaker 8: keep on going that. If you think they're going to

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Speaker 8: be worried about the broader economy, then you know, maybe

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Speaker 8: they'll be sitting on their hands and waiting.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: Jackson Hill is quite the jamboree for central bankers. We

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Speaker 1: heard also from the Federal Reserve season Colins and Patrick

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Speaker 1: Harker too, a bit of a different message coming from them,

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Speaker 1: though one rates.

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Speaker 8: Different message, but same debate, right, they're more I think

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Speaker 8: Harker is saying, you know, let's sit on our handsome

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Speaker 8: weight from here. Colin's saying, we might have to hike

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Speaker 8: some more, and I think, you know, it's the same

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Speaker 8: sort of dilemma. Has the federal already done enough to

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Speaker 8: let things run for a little bit from here, or

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Speaker 8: is their scope to be more aggressive given that we're

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Speaker 8: still seeing those very strong employment numbers and inflation is

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Speaker 8: still way above target, you know, the same as Nagger

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Speaker 8: was saying. I think from the US side, what the

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Speaker 8: markets are looking for is perhaps one more hike before

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Speaker 8: the end of the year, But if it's going to come,

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Speaker 8: it's more likely not at the next meeting, but subsequent

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Speaker 8: ones a little bit later in the year. So that

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Speaker 8: sort of hike pause, hike pause pattern may continue for

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Speaker 8: a little bit if we continue to see very strong

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Speaker 8: numbers in the inflation.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we're still several weeks away from a

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Speaker 1: decision from either the FED or the ECB and what

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Speaker 1: they're going to do next. How much weight do markets

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Speaker 1: attached to the commentary that we get out of policy

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Speaker 1: makers at Jackson Hole.

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Speaker 8: Oh no, it's huge, you know, because it's that opportunity

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Speaker 8: to take that stage and send not only a short

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Speaker 8: term but also a longer term message. And I think,

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Speaker 8: especially for Chair Pale, that's partly what the market will

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Speaker 8: be looking for today, not just what's his view of

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Speaker 8: whether we do one more hike or not. You know,

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Speaker 8: we kind of know the Feds towards the end of

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Speaker 8: the hiking cycle. It's more about how long is it

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Speaker 8: going to keep interest rates at these higher levels? What

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Speaker 8: does it mean when it says data dependent, does every

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Speaker 8: data point matter or is it a trend? And what

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Speaker 8: is the long term neutral rate look like these days?

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Speaker 7: You know?

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Speaker 8: Kind of does the Fed need to in principle have

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Speaker 8: interest rates at a higher level than we've seen over

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Speaker 8: the past five or ten years just to keep inflation

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Speaker 8: kind of at an even keel from here? Those are

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Speaker 8: things that I think fixing come industs are going to

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Speaker 8: be paying particular attention to.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Paul Dobson, thank you very much. We are a

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Speaker 1: data dependent of central banks. We depend on you to

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Speaker 1: put the context around the commentary from them as well.

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Speaker 1: That's our Executive editor for Asia Markets, Paul Dobson. There

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Speaker 1: up next more Bricks in the Wall and Oxford Street

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Speaker 1: scrambles to retain its iconic status.

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Speaker 5: Now the paper review on blue Bird Daybreak Europe.

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Speaker 9: The news you need to know from today's papers.

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Speaker 1: Leanne Geron's has the details of those stories in the

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Speaker 1: papers for us this morning. Good morning to you, Leanne.

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Speaker 1: Let's start in the Financial Times the headline Bricks Leaders

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Speaker 1: invite six nations, including Saudi's and Iran to join block.

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Speaker 10: So Stephen, yesterday, we did speak about this briefly when

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Speaker 10: we got the news, but really the conversation is moved

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Speaker 10: to what it means adding these countries to the Bricks

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Speaker 10: Emerging Market Bloc.

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Speaker 9: That is where things are moving to.

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Speaker 10: And as we know, the bloc has launched its biggest

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Speaker 10: expansion in history as Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 10: and the UAE were all invited to join. But what

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Speaker 10: the Financial Times is really going into here is the

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Speaker 10: expansion represents a huge victory for China. China has been

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Speaker 10: pushing for rapid expansion of the group before the summit

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Speaker 10: as part of its ambitions to really lead the developing world.

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Speaker 10: We do know that China has a big influence in

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Speaker 10: many countries, even in Africa, Iran, in Saudi Arabia, which

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Speaker 10: are the world which is the world's biggest oil producer

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Speaker 10: outside the US at Saudi Arabia, And we just have

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Speaker 10: to remember these are some of the first Middle Eastern

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Speaker 10: countries to join BRICKS. So China is looking to also

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Speaker 10: build relations between READ and Tehran this year. So it

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Speaker 10: looks like there's going to be a shift in thinking

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Speaker 10: when it comes to these countries joining the blog. Brazil's

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Speaker 10: President Lula de Silver has been speaking. He says the

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Speaker 10: new members will increase the brickshare of global GDP from

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Speaker 10: thirty two percent to thirty seven percent on a purchasing

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Speaker 10: power parity basis, and I think this is such an

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Speaker 10: interesting conversation. Also, Bloomberg Opinion e columnist Pantrak Mishra has

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Speaker 10: been speaking and his column is absolutely great.

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Speaker 9: He says BRICKS is a little more than a meaningless acronym.

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Speaker 10: The group is seeking to counter US influence and how

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Speaker 10: the group is moving really with this new announcement.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, really really great piece on panject measures definitely are

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Speaker 1: definitely worth a read there as well, I also note

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Speaker 1: with interest there keeping the acronym bricks.

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Speaker 9: Yes silver. I don't know if you saw it.

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Speaker 10: I don't know if you any memes around yesterday on

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Speaker 10: the internet, but they added the other countries initials and

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Speaker 10: yes you can only.

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Speaker 1: Add let's go to the Telegraph nextly and the headline

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Speaker 1: there Oxford Street needs support to retain iconic status.

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Speaker 10: So Ikea is delaying its new store opening on Oxford

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Speaker 10: Street Steven.

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Speaker 9: Remember that's where the old top Shop used to be.

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Speaker 9: I feel like I frequented that very often. My footsteps

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Speaker 9: are well entrenched into that place. But that was meant

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Speaker 9: to be replaced by Ikea.

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Speaker 10: We know that, but actually it's not going ahead and

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Speaker 10: for another year or so. And IKEA's UK chief, that's

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Speaker 10: Peter Jelkabe. I hope I've said that right, Peter, if

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Speaker 10: you're listening, and has said the iconic status is at

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Speaker 10: risk unless businesses are allowed to invest. So the Swedish

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Speaker 10: furniture giant said it was delaying the opening of its

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Speaker 10: new flagship shop by a year after finding that they

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Speaker 10: needed to refurbish and invest more.

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Speaker 9: Than they anticipated into the building.

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Speaker 10: Remember it's a really iconic building right out you know

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Speaker 10: circus and you know, we know what it looks like.

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Speaker 10: And it really comes after there's a growing row with

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Speaker 10: Michael Gove. He's the Housing Secretary and that's because he

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Speaker 10: blocked the development of an m Ands a flagship store which.

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Speaker 9: Is in Marble Arch.

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Speaker 10: They wanted to knock it down and rebuild it and

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Speaker 10: he overruled Westminster Council on this and now basically businesses.

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Speaker 9: Are hitting out saying we need.

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Speaker 10: To invest in order to get Oxford Street back up

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Speaker 10: to the iconic place that it used to be.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly, it does feel like there's quite a

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Speaker 1: long road there in front of it. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal next Lee and wealthy people are

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Speaker 1: getting full body scans.

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Speaker 10: So this story is absolutely fascinating and it's right down

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Speaker 10: my street. Kim Kardashian recently shared an Instagram post outing

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Speaker 10: her own scan and that was really an MRI company

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Speaker 10: pre Nova. So they do these early scan and the

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Speaker 10: basis of them is that you can find out what's

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Speaker 10: wrong with you. So even if you're healthy, even if

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Speaker 10: you're well, even if you're young. Companies are selling body

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Speaker 10: scans to healthy patients, promising for what's peace of mind really, Stephen.

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Speaker 10: So that's really something I find quite fascinating because I'm

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Speaker 10: in the debate here. Would I pay between six hundred

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Speaker 10: and fifty dollars to several thousand dollars to make sure

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Speaker 10: that I was okay? Or would I listen to medical

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Speaker 10: professionals who are concerned about the costs and say people are.

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Speaker 9: Going to go and have them necessarily Yes, actually, and

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Speaker 9: they're going to go and have these scans.

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Speaker 10: They're going to find out they could have a benign

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Speaker 10: tumor and go through months of stress.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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