Speaker 1: To check it down man to Thursday morning, September fourteenth,
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. It is the Beating the Book Podcast
Speaker 1: Mega pod for a Wig number two and then National
Speaker 1: Football League Gil Alexander. I hope you're week one went
Speaker 1: well betting wise as always on the heels by the
Speaker 1: way of just a great appearance by Fessick last week,
Speaker 1: and thank you everybody who downloaded that podcast. Just tremendous
Speaker 1: numbers on the PSI pod episode and he was great.
Speaker 1: We talked about all kinds of hypothetical NFL stuff. Hope
Speaker 1: everybody enjoyed that. I'll throw one in here just to
Speaker 1: riff as drift from that here momentarily. But first please
Speaker 1: are staples of the show from usually his mom's cork
Speaker 1: Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, but today he has upgraded to
Speaker 1: the dining room. It's Todd wish them. How you doing, totty? Well,
Speaker 1: not a good start.
Speaker 2: You can't hear me.
Speaker 1: Now we can hear you. Go ahead on, Gilly, how
Speaker 1: you doing man?
Speaker 2: Good to hear my screen.
Speaker 3: Is freezing like Adam is frozen and Will is moving
Speaker 3: and you're and you're sort of frozen.
Speaker 1: Okay, Well we hear you fine. Let me say hello
Speaker 1: to Will Hill, also at Not the Will Hill. He's
Speaker 1: on the Bear Bets podcast both college and pro with
Speaker 1: the Bear Chris Faliga. Willie, what's happening?
Speaker 4: Boys? What's going on?
Speaker 1: Do people call you will Willie or Wilson? What's the
Speaker 1: what's the way they go with that?
Speaker 4: Willie's kind of a little bit of a playful nickname.
Speaker 4: I don't get a lot of Wilson, but uh yeah,
Speaker 4: look if you want to start calling me Willy, I'm
Speaker 4: okay with that. Sounds funny, Okay.
Speaker 1: We apologize for the audio here at the very outset
Speaker 1: of the show. We hope that it holds. Our rotating
Speaker 1: guest this week is one of our favorites. We always
Speaker 1: have him back for the postseason as well, and he's
Speaker 1: kind enough to join us for week number two. He
Speaker 1: is from Right Angle Sports. I don't know what else
Speaker 1: he's doing. He'll share with us. It's Adam Chernoff. Everybody,
Speaker 1: how you doing, Adam good?
Speaker 5: I think I started the show a couple of years ago, like.
Speaker 6: Week sixteen or seventeen, with all the guests that are
Speaker 6: usually on or tired, and so now I've made it
Speaker 6: up to week two and you know we're not up
Speaker 6: here a little bit, so good to be back with
Speaker 6: you guys.
Speaker 1: Well, I had to finesse a you know, a different
Speaker 1: media conflict and then we found your spot here on
Speaker 1: the podcast itself. What else, by the way, besides Right
Speaker 1: Angle Sports, Like, what are all the different things you're doing?
Speaker 1: Because you're into a mess of stuff.
Speaker 6: Massive stuff as always, but the big focus is the
Speaker 6: football service with Right Angle Sports, so that's the big one.
Speaker 6: And then we have the daily podcast, the Simple Handicap
Speaker 6: in year number six now, and then we're doing a
Speaker 6: whole bunch of video stuff all over the place. So
Speaker 6: if you're following the accounts of Right Angle Sports, you'll
Speaker 6: get everything that's coming out.
Speaker 1: Sweet all right, And of course Adam Chernoff c h E.
Speaker 1: R n Off is your Twitter. Everybody can find out
Speaker 1: everything you're doing there. Adam, who is are you responsible
Speaker 1: for any of these line moves that just happened in
Speaker 1: the NFL market that just occurred in the last hour?
Speaker 6: Nothing within the last hour. This has all been injury
Speaker 6: stuff for the most part. So we did a lot
Speaker 6: on Tuesday earlier this week and then might still have
Speaker 6: a few things to come yet.
Speaker 1: Okay, Todd is the court stenographer over the megapod. Todd,
Speaker 1: how did we all do last week?
Speaker 2: Gilly and Will?
Speaker 3: We're both two and one outstanding weeks. Gill only missed
Speaker 3: with the Pictsburg Stullers and Will only missed with the
Speaker 3: Washington Guardians or Commanders or whatever their name is.
Speaker 2: As two and.
Speaker 3: One, I went one one in one, as did Fezick.
Speaker 3: We pushed the Pats and I lost the Bears and
Speaker 3: won the under in Dallas, and he also Beckers and Steelers.
Speaker 3: So one one one for me and the guests and
Speaker 3: two and one for you guys. We all lost the
Speaker 3: teasers because we all.
Speaker 2: Fell for the Yenzer factor.
Speaker 3: If Yen's are gonna hype us up all summer and
Speaker 3: that you're gonna have a problem when you go against
Speaker 3: Super Bowl contenders in that.
Speaker 2: That's what happened.
Speaker 1: That is exactly what happened. Before we get into thoughts
Speaker 1: on Thursday Night football, and if there are any bets here,
Speaker 1: I just wanted because we talked so much about this
Speaker 1: with Fesik last week in terms of like optimal situations
Speaker 1: and what teams ought to be doing or what may
Speaker 1: develop as the years go on. In the NFL in
Speaker 1: certain situations. That was sort of a conversation that ripped off,
Speaker 1: you know, going from fourteen point deficit to eight, and
Speaker 1: how people should be taking the two at that point.
Speaker 1: Then we got into other kinds of crazier situations. Something
Speaker 1: happened in that Kansas City Detroit game. I brought it
Speaker 1: up on a Numbers game. Obviously it was a big
Speaker 1: Twitter thing as well. Joe Pte and I were talking
Speaker 1: about it, but something fell into our lap right after
Speaker 1: we recorded the megapod, which is that fourth and twenty
Speaker 1: five that the Chiefs had, which started out as a
Speaker 1: fourth and twenty but then they false started. This is
Speaker 1: late in the game. I want to say. There was
Speaker 1: two ZHO nine left on the clock, There was still
Speaker 1: the two minute warning, there was still their full allotment
Speaker 1: of timeouts. They were down one point twenty one to
Speaker 1: twenty and we were discussing how the optimal play at
Speaker 1: that point would have been for Patrick Mahomes to sprint
Speaker 1: back to the nine yard line, let's say, and go
Speaker 1: out of bounds north of the two minute warning, forcing
Speaker 1: Detroit's hand. In essence, at that point, they couldn't get
Speaker 1: a first down to beat you, which is what happened
Speaker 1: after the Chiefs failed to convert on the fourth and
Speaker 1: twenty five. And I guess my question is, and I
Speaker 1: hope people understand what I mean by that, so Detroit
Speaker 1: would have been forced to either kick a field goal
Speaker 1: or score the touchdown. The thing that could have torpedoed
Speaker 1: that is if they had gone for two I suppose
Speaker 1: after the touchdown, but let's just throw that to the
Speaker 1: side for a second. I guess my question to you, Adam,
Speaker 1: and I'll start with you, is do you think a
Speaker 1: team in the NFL will ever get there? Because this
Speaker 1: was the perfect situation for that.
Speaker 6: I saw that no really intrigued by the comment because
Speaker 6: it was so original. I hadn't seen that really said before.
Speaker 6: But I feel like it's the defensive link thing that
Speaker 6: we talk about always being the optimal play and how
Speaker 6: every team should do it, and no team ever does it.
Speaker 6: I don't know if we ever see that happen, but
Speaker 6: I feel like we talk about it every single week
Speaker 6: in some scenario, especially later in the season. So once
Speaker 6: the defensive holding starts happening at the end of games
Speaker 6: to run out the clock, I'll be a believer that
Speaker 6: we'll see a quarterback go out at the ninth.
Speaker 1: End of games and end up halves too, right where
Speaker 1: you can just defensive hold your way into the you know,
Speaker 1: one untimed down I guess sort of thing is what
Speaker 1: you're talking about.
Speaker 5: Is that exactly?
Speaker 6: Yeah, and then it puts the offense in the position
Speaker 6: where they have no time and they can't score anymore.
Speaker 6: So once that happens, I'll be a believer. We'll see
Speaker 6: a quarterback go out at the nine, because really, this
Speaker 6: could happen no matter. It doesn't have to be fourth
Speaker 6: and twenty five. It can be fourth in whatever it
Speaker 6: would be the play to make in any circumstances.
Speaker 5: So now that it's out there, let's see what happened.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't have to be fourth and twenty five,
Speaker 1: you're right, but fourth and twenty five made it so
Speaker 1: right there in front of us obvious, right, it's like, oh,
Speaker 1: you guys are still going for it even after the
Speaker 1: fall start. And by the way, Patrick Mahomes, because he's
Speaker 1: so great, almost almost converted, but it banged off, I
Speaker 1: want to say, justin Watson's hands on the fourth and
Speaker 1: twenty five.
Speaker 6: So the question is where and where on the field
Speaker 6: does this become no longer the optimal play, Like if
Speaker 6: it's fourth and pick a number, but you're at the
Speaker 6: forty eight yard line right of your on your own
Speaker 6: side of the field, are you still going back to?
Speaker 5: Like where's the cutoff?
Speaker 6: Is what I would be curious to know, because there's
Speaker 6: probably a point in the yard line with it down
Speaker 6: and distance where it no longer becomes optimal. But in
Speaker 6: that circumstance it certainly seemed obvious, but there's probably it
Speaker 6: even gets more ridiculous where it becomes the play to
Speaker 6: make rather than maybe going for that fourth down.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, totally agree. And that was and I just
Speaker 1: want to get it right because that was fourth and
Speaker 1: twenty five at the.
Speaker 5: Where were they they were like the thirty five ish.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna tell you right now. Fourth they were twenty
Speaker 1: fourth and twenty five at their own thirty with two
Speaker 1: oh nine left would have been a twenty one yard loss.
Speaker 1: So yeah, everything was so perfect in that situation, the distance,
Speaker 1: the place on the field. Now, of course, you know
Speaker 1: the other response to this I mentioned one one way
Speaker 1: to torpedo wit was then yeah, but then one if
Speaker 1: Detroit scores and then gets a two point conversion, the
Speaker 1: whole thing, you know, backfires, you know, Detroit, Detroit, could
Speaker 1: you know, conceivably then take the next play if there's
Speaker 1: too little time. You know, someone was saying, oh, what
Speaker 1: if Detroit then just runs up and down the field
Speaker 1: and tries to knock out time like as a whole
Speaker 1: there's you know, it can get really really ridiculous. But anyway,
Speaker 1: I think it's a fascinating scenario. No need to belabor
Speaker 1: it anymore. We'll just see if teams start to develop
Speaker 1: this thing. And this is all discussion because last week
Speaker 1: Fezik and Todd were like, oh, eighty percent of teams
Speaker 1: when they when they're down fourteen, they know when they
Speaker 1: get to eight to go for two. And I was like,
Speaker 1: there's no way it's a will and I were both like,
Speaker 1: there's no way it's eighty percent. And so anyway, just
Speaker 1: fascinating football situations where I think Baseball has sort of
Speaker 1: figured out stuff analytically. Football hasn't quite like in a
Speaker 1: chess game, where there's always an optimal play, Football has
Speaker 1: not figured out optimal plays at optimal times. It was
Speaker 1: the whole point of all of that.
Speaker 6: Anyway, could you imagine feasick if he ends up in
Speaker 6: some wild reality getting a coaching job, and implements all
Speaker 6: of this the Monday morning press conference after where he
Speaker 6: has to atone to the media. I mean, it would
Speaker 6: be an all time sports moment if that ever happened.
Speaker 1: That is such a great call. How funny that would
Speaker 1: be every Monday. I can't wait for Fessic's most game presser.
Speaker 1: That would be so great. Oh man, Steve's such a
Speaker 1: nice guy. It's so great that he his mind works
Speaker 1: this way. Okay, Thursday Night Football, Todd, you will tell
Speaker 1: me if I'm all format right? Thursday Night Football? Oh
Speaker 1: and Survivor? Who we all got through on Survivor?
Speaker 2: Yes, Ravens, I got through, Yeah, I.
Speaker 1: Got I mean I have multiple entries, so four of
Speaker 1: the five got through. I actually lost on Denver one
Speaker 1: of my entries. I wanted to go frisky and Denver
Speaker 1: didn't get there. But I had Baltimore, I had Washington, Washington.
Speaker 4: Quick, I had Washington.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Washington, we barely got there. What do you say, Todd?
Speaker 2: Can we do a quick in game talk?
Speaker 1: Yes? If you have something for sure? Yeah? What do
Speaker 1: you got?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think something to look at. Some of the
Speaker 2: books have.
Speaker 3: Team totals for third quarters at halftime. And that's really
Speaker 3: interesting because you know, the first quarters and third quarters
Speaker 3: play very similarly. Obviously third quarters are a little higher scoring,
Speaker 3: but still they play similarly in the in the sense
Speaker 3: that you know, you long first drives, and the scoring
Speaker 3: is obviously much higher in the second and fourth quarters.
Speaker 3: So you'll see in NFL games nine and a half,
Speaker 3: seven and a half that's for both teams. But now
Speaker 3: they're putting up tease for third quarters sometimes and if
Speaker 3: you know who's getting the ball first, which you obviously do,
Speaker 3: that can be I think there's there's something to do there.
Speaker 3: And they even keep them up live often, so if
Speaker 3: you see a team you know that really struggle to
Speaker 3: move the ball in the first half, the other team,
Speaker 3: you know, is getting the ball to start the second half.
Speaker 3: I did this with the Bears last weekend. Actually lost,
Speaker 3: but it was like their only touchdown to the game.
Speaker 2: I think it was just kind of unlucky.
Speaker 3: But the Bears were three and a half team total
Speaker 3: in the third quarter and they really couldn't move the
Speaker 3: ball at all, and the chances, I mean, they couldn't
Speaker 3: score touchdown, that's for darn sure. And they weren't getting
Speaker 3: the ball first. The Packers were getting the ball first.
Speaker 3: So now if the Packers go down and you have
Speaker 3: a four or five minute drive, now you basically the
Speaker 3: Bears get one shot at getting a touchdown, because if
Speaker 3: they don't get a touchdown, the Packers now get the
Speaker 3: ball with say sub six minutes to go, and even
Speaker 3: if they go two or three minutes, there's not enough
Speaker 3: time for the Bears to come back and get a touchdown.
Speaker 3: A lot of these touchdown drives are a lot longer
Speaker 3: than three or four minutes, So I think there's you
Speaker 3: want to keep an eye on these third quarter team totals,
Speaker 3: not just third quarter totals in general, because I think
Speaker 3: if you can get a feel for who can move
Speaker 3: the ball and who can't, you know, a lot of
Speaker 3: the garbage time touchdowns, a lot of the touchdowns from
Speaker 3: team that can't move the ball happen in garbage time.
Speaker 3: They don't happen in the third quarter typically, although it
Speaker 3: did happen with the Bears. So oftentimes you'll see a
Speaker 3: team they can't move the ball the entire three quarters
Speaker 3: of the game, all of a sudden the fourth quarter
Speaker 3: they get a touchdown. But you don't have to worry
Speaker 3: about in the third quarter. So I think you want
Speaker 3: to keep an eye I know that's kind of just
Speaker 3: a general thing, but you want to keep an eye
Speaker 3: on these teams that are not moving the ball at all,
Speaker 3: and there's no reason to think they can. They're not
Speaker 3: getting the ball to start the third quarter, and they're
Speaker 3: going to get you over a field goal.
Speaker 2: I think there's gonna be some opportunity.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a nice riff off of what you were
Speaker 1: saying last week about totals in general into the third
Speaker 1: at the end of the third quarter. But this is
Speaker 1: team totals at the end of the third quarter. What
Speaker 1: percentage of books would you say, Todd actually offer this,
Speaker 1: because it's not all of them.
Speaker 2: There's probably twenty to twenty five percent have them.
Speaker 1: Okay, sounds about right to me.
Speaker 3: Maybe least maybe twenty percent. Yeah, I can think of
Speaker 3: two already that usually have it.
Speaker 1: What are they tell them?
Speaker 3: I know, I know Rivers has it for sure. That's
Speaker 3: one that definitely has it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Because like I don't think I'm trying to think
Speaker 1: like just an offshore like Bookmaker does not. For instance,
Speaker 1: I don't think Caesar's does Caesar's doesn't.
Speaker 2: Do they No, sometimes they do have that kind of.
Speaker 1: Sometimes they do. Okay, all right, maybe I just haven't
Speaker 1: seen it. Okay, always a good one. By the way, again,
Speaker 1: the audio on Todd and on will I apologize for
Speaker 1: this is our our new spot here at the d
Speaker 1: at Bar Canada, and they're working through everything, so I apologize.
Speaker 1: You've got most of the drift of what Todd was
Speaker 1: saying though, But if this persists, trust me, I will
Speaker 1: make sure we do this from somewhere else moving forward.
Speaker 1: But hopefully we get slog through this Thursday Night football.
Speaker 1: We're about to do our best bets sider totals our
Speaker 1: favorite three bets. Does anything from tonight's game qualify as
Speaker 1: one of your three top bets? Do you have any
Speaker 1: thoughts on this? Adam?
Speaker 6: I really like the over in this spot tonight a
Speaker 6: couple of reasons. I think the Eagles defense is going
Speaker 6: to take a big step back as we progressed throughout
Speaker 6: the season, lost some key pieces in the offseason, but
Speaker 6: also last week they lose to Kobe Dean, who was
Speaker 6: their green dot in the middle. The green dot got
Speaker 6: passed over to Read Blankenship.
Speaker 5: He's going to miss as well.
Speaker 6: He was their leading tackler, and they lost another corner
Speaker 6: as well, and now you have Fletcher Cox who's hurt
Speaker 6: as well. So here these two teams played the total
Speaker 6: close forty nine and a half. I think we had
Speaker 6: the Eagles with a worse defense. We have the Vikings offense,
Speaker 6: which is just full on chase mode. With Kevin O'Connell,
Speaker 6: I think they're going to be a team to look
Speaker 6: at when you need a partner for the over all
Speaker 6: season long. The Vikings defense is cleelanked with Floores, It's
Speaker 6: completely boom or bust, and so I think both teams
Speaker 6: move it pretty comfortably. Seeing forty nine or forty nine
Speaker 6: and a half, I think both numbers good.
Speaker 5: To go over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the injuries on both sides there Fletcher Cox questionable,
Speaker 1: the Kobe Dean out, James Bradbury out, the cornerback safety
Speaker 1: read Blanket Ship out. And then on the Vikings side
Speaker 1: of the offense, Christian darrisaw questionable. That'd be huge. Garrett Bradbury,
Speaker 1: They're a center is out obviously, a Marcus Davenport questionable.
Speaker 1: On the defensive side, a defense that by the way,
Speaker 1: generated a twenty three percent pass pressure rate on Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield despite blitzing at the highest rates. So a lot
Speaker 1: of that when you put it all on the wash
Speaker 1: could very well point to an over for sure. Will
Speaker 1: any thoughts on this.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I echo those sentiments in terms of the over
Speaker 4: ey thing with Floras, in terms of like the blitzing
Speaker 4: where it's it's like Adam said, boom er bust, where
Speaker 4: it's not going to be four or five yards at
Speaker 4: the time. It's gonna be big chunks, it's gonna be
Speaker 4: big plays. So I would definitely look at an over
Speaker 4: in Minnesota. You know Minnesota. You look at the scoreboard.
Speaker 4: They only put up seventeen points, but they moved the
Speaker 4: ball up the field. They were I think six yards
Speaker 4: were quite maybe a little over. They just shot themselves
Speaker 4: in the foot when they got close. So I would
Speaker 4: take the points and I look at it over. I
Speaker 4: agree with that that you know, Feeld not that good
Speaker 4: on defense. And it goes back to last year. I
Speaker 4: mean all the good quarterbacks they played really tore Mahomes
Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl, Rogers on that something night, even golf,
Speaker 4: and the rest of the quarterbacks, it's a lot of
Speaker 4: Daniel Jones. There was a lot of weaker quarter backs
Speaker 4: that they feasted on, so Vikings and the over stronger
Speaker 4: on the over.
Speaker 1: Eagles down to a six point favorite total right now
Speaker 1: at forty nine. Todd, anything from you here, I'm.
Speaker 3: Not using it as my pick, but I kind of
Speaker 3: like the Eagles team total. I don't know if you
Speaker 3: guys do this, but if you like it, over into
Speaker 3: their game, but you also have more confidence in one
Speaker 3: of the teams going over, do you think, hey, maybe
Speaker 3: I'll just play this as a team total over. Like
Speaker 3: for instance, last week, I thought the Giants weren't going
Speaker 3: to move the ball at all, and instead of playing
Speaker 3: the under in the game, I just played the team
Speaker 3: total Giants under twenty and a half, and I feel
Speaker 3: like I give myself even a little bit better chance.
Speaker 3: For instance, in this game, if I had to play something,
Speaker 3: I'd probably play the Eagles over seven and a half
Speaker 3: because I just don't think the Vikings have a great defense,
Speaker 3: and after that Eagles kind of disappointment on offense. I
Speaker 3: think they'll be on all cylinders tonight at home. I
Speaker 3: don't know do you guys do that at all? Look
Speaker 3: at the team totals as opposed to the just the
Speaker 3: regular total.
Speaker 4: I do a lot in baseball, I do a lot
Speaker 4: in Detroit was a team I did it with last year,
Speaker 4: So yeah, I agree, it's a good It's a good
Speaker 4: way to get at.
Speaker 1: Your handicap better, Adam Will or Will was that a
Speaker 1: best bet for you? The over? Or is that not
Speaker 1: one of your top three? No?
Speaker 6: No, Adam, Yeah, I'm coming ready to fire, so we
Speaker 6: can put it in or we can still do the
Speaker 6: full three.
Speaker 5: We'll go to you and we see opinion this week. Bill,
Speaker 5: All right, we'll.
Speaker 1: See what comes out of your mouth. Then if that
Speaker 1: ends up being one of your top three. Let us
Speaker 1: start with the best bets of week number two. Your
Speaker 1: week one was good at him? By the way, betting wise,
Speaker 1: did it go.
Speaker 5: Well for you? The Steelers put a damper?
Speaker 6: Yeah, a lot of things so first half in full
Speaker 6: game there were kind of a killer. Other than that,
Speaker 6: it was it was okay, but the Steelers really put
Speaker 6: us in a bad spot.
Speaker 1: All right, what's your number one play at them for
Speaker 1: this week? Week two?
Speaker 6: Let's go to the Colts minus one. This is to me,
Speaker 6: it's pretty simple, and I'm giving a pretty generous numbers
Speaker 6: based on that. We're going to see this one move
Speaker 6: here in about the next hour, hour and a half. Well,
Speaker 6: I'll say, but what the Colts is I'm looking at
Speaker 6: a better head coach, a better play caller, and I'm
Speaker 6: looking at a better quarterback. Against the Texans team shortly
Speaker 6: rule out both of their starting safeties, they lost their
Speaker 6: best linebacker, they put a defensive tackle, and I are
Speaker 6: a little bit earlier this week they have both of
Speaker 6: their tackles on the end the offensive side as well
Speaker 6: as Dalton. Schultz has banged up but will likely play.
Speaker 6: I think he's just going to reall consistently with Richardson,
Speaker 6: his injury is not a concern. I'm not ready to
Speaker 6: put these teams on equal footing like this price is
Speaker 6: suggesting with very limited home field inside the division. So
Speaker 6: I'll proppily take the Colts here and I'll release it
Speaker 6: here on the pod and say minus one for the price.
Speaker 6: I know it's really really fair, but I think by
Speaker 6: the time people listen, that'll be the number.
Speaker 1: Okay, because we did see some Houston movement this morning, right.
Speaker 6: There was, and that's gonna it's gonna come.
Speaker 1: Back, Okay, Indianapolis, we get a release Fromage sure enough,
Speaker 1: right there?
Speaker 2: Minus one his biggest Colts plus one is there.
Speaker 1: Right, Adam said, Colts minus one is where he got it?
Speaker 6: Is that correct, Adam, I'll say that the anticipating what
Speaker 6: we're probably gonna be here, So.
Speaker 5: It is. But I'm gonna move all right.
Speaker 1: Well, well but it's plus one right now? Todd? Is
Speaker 1: that the consensus?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think we just called it plus one.
Speaker 5: We'll keep it there.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll give him Colts plus one if
Speaker 1: that's the consensus, Uh, Todd, what is your naturally, let's
Speaker 1: go to Will. Will, what is your number one?
Speaker 4: I will go with the Jets plus nine and a half.
Speaker 4: I still think that's maybe the best defense in the league.
Speaker 4: I think Dallas will probably look at this game as
Speaker 4: long as we don't screwed up, as long as we
Speaker 4: don't turn the ball over, or it'll be okay here,
Speaker 4: we can win a twenty to thirteen, twenty to sixteen
Speaker 4: type of game. Let's be conservative. Has made comments about, hey,
Speaker 4: I'm not going to turn the ball over like I
Speaker 4: did last year, and uh, it's not a great situational
Speaker 4: spot Jets coming off on Monday night. But I just
Speaker 4: think this is a close, low scoring game, not about
Speaker 4: playing the under two. But I will take the Jets
Speaker 4: here plus the nine and a half points.
Speaker 1: How about plus nine? Are you saying nine? Todd?
Speaker 2: I am seeing on the Jets Jts plus nine?
Speaker 1: I see, yeah, how about nine? Will? All right, he'll
Speaker 1: take the nine. We'll at him. Try to get a
Speaker 1: little hook in there. See what he was doing right there? Will?
Speaker 1: Will's like he's been the show. We gotta have it.
Speaker 1: We have to have a consensus. No, we got three consensus, Todd.
Speaker 1: What's your number one?
Speaker 2: My number one is gonna be the Uh, I'm gonna
Speaker 2: do it.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the New England Patriots plus the
Speaker 3: three points at home against the Miami Dolphins. I was
Speaker 3: watching that Miami game extremely intently. I know everyone is
Speaker 3: in love with Tua throwing it to wine guys running
Speaker 3: wide open over the middle, and then throwing it deep
Speaker 3: to this guy to Tarik Hill and he's running for
Speaker 3: a thousan yards, by the way, on every play it
Speaker 3: looks like he's about to get killed.
Speaker 2: And then literally he throws it.
Speaker 3: He's very accurate, and some guy grabs it from nine
Speaker 3: yards and run for fifty yards. Okay, this is Can
Speaker 3: we not forget that? The Chargers are the Chargers, okay,
Speaker 3: and this is the kind I mean, how many games
Speaker 3: have we seen guys running around like ridiculously against the Chargers.
Speaker 2: We've seen it a lot.
Speaker 3: I think Bill Belichick told you last week that, hey,
Speaker 3: he's not too old to coach defense. I think he
Speaker 3: did a wonderful job against the Philadelphia Eagles on the
Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball, and you could make the
Speaker 3: argument that had their offense just not made any mistakes,
Speaker 3: they may have won the football game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2: So now we get to go against Tua, and I think.
Speaker 3: I don't know if do you remember last year we
Speaker 3: taught how there was some issue about Tua able to
Speaker 3: throw the ball over the middle, and certain coaches were
Speaker 3: able to stop that nonsense and really make it much
Speaker 3: harder for Tua. I don't know if you remember the Yeah,
Speaker 3: there was somebody.
Speaker 2: Who came on the pod who was talking about that.
Speaker 3: I just happened to think that Bill Belichick can cook
Speaker 3: up some kind of gulash of defense here to keep
Speaker 3: this game close against.
Speaker 2: A team Miami Juggernaut. On off of oh my god,
Speaker 2: this is the greatest team.
Speaker 3: By the way, two is one hit from being on
Speaker 3: the sideline at all times. Okay, so give me the Patriots.
Speaker 3: I think they can keep it close. By the way,
Speaker 3: Miami's Deece did not play well. They had played one
Speaker 3: drive well, the last drive of the game. Other than that,
Speaker 3: they couldn't stop him at all. It was you know,
Speaker 3: guys were running wide open. Austin Eckler running for sixty
Speaker 3: yards down the sideline. They throw it to like Kelly,
Speaker 3: He's running for fifty years. So I didn't see anything
Speaker 3: from the Dolplins defense to make me think that the
Speaker 3: Patriots wouldn't be able to move. They moved it against
Speaker 3: the the Eagles at times.
Speaker 2: Why can't bet the pat Patriots keep it within three
Speaker 2: at home?
Speaker 1: So much? We learned so much from week two games,
Speaker 1: right we find out what in Week one was just
Speaker 1: an aberration because we only have that one data point,
Speaker 1: and obviously there's massive recency bias from just that one
Speaker 1: data point more than any other game. Perhaps that's the
Speaker 1: one where we're gonna learn where the Patriots just playing
Speaker 1: an Eagles team that didn't play in the preseason, and
Speaker 1: so they looked better than they were were the Dolphins
Speaker 1: just you know, was their defense horrible because it was
Speaker 1: against the Chargers, or is the Dolphins defense truly horrible?
Speaker 1: And you're right, they only showed up for that last
Speaker 1: drive just in the nick of time? Did they show up? So?
Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's so many questions marks here,
Speaker 1: by the way, the one thing about two of it.
Speaker 1: I just want to say, do you feel like the
Speaker 1: sentence that everybody or the phrase that everybody uses inappropriately, so, oh,
Speaker 1: he's one hit away from you know, who knows, God knows,
Speaker 1: God forbid his whole career being over because of the concussions.
Speaker 1: But do you feel like, because that phrase is attached
Speaker 1: to every sentence about Tua, that somehow, in the wash
Speaker 1: he gets diminished, that he's actually really really good, and
Speaker 1: that that just sort of, somehow in our brains detracts
Speaker 1: from him.
Speaker 4: I don't. I don't. I think those guys are opened
Speaker 4: by a mile. If he was on the Giants, the
Speaker 4: charm on a bunch of different teams, I don't know
Speaker 4: that that would translate as well. So I think he's
Speaker 4: a good player, very accurate. But I do think he's
Speaker 4: a limited player.
Speaker 1: I will tell you this. I thought the two plays
Speaker 1: that the two huge plays to Tyreek in the second
Speaker 1: half of that game. I have no idea how the
Speaker 1: ball got through Tyreek. He was not open on those
Speaker 1: plays like it was incredible.
Speaker 2: I guess I'll just Adam, do you want to say
Speaker 2: something about that?
Speaker 6: I think he's It's hard to disrespect someone who works
Speaker 6: so well together with the coach and the play caller
Speaker 6: and the play designer. And I think the changes that
Speaker 6: we saw McDaniel implement again Chargers to make up for
Speaker 6: the issues that they had against that defense a year ago,
Speaker 6: really deserves a lot of credit and kinda gets pretty
Speaker 6: scary for the rest of the league when you're seeing
Speaker 6: all the tweaks that he made on that sort of
Speaker 6: readjustment in the game plan to take on that defense again.
Speaker 6: So I think there's a lot of a lot of
Speaker 6: upside here with the Dolphins offense and that hold tu aside.
Speaker 6: I mean, who isn't one hit away from being hurt
Speaker 6: in this league? And so I think just because we've
Speaker 6: seen it so frequently with him and recently, it gets
Speaker 6: a little more attention than it deserves. But every quarterback's
Speaker 6: one handled away.
Speaker 1: Todd, you wanted to say something about that, I just
Speaker 1: I think he's a very good player.
Speaker 3: But I think like anointing him like one of these
Speaker 3: elite quarterbacks all of a sudden.
Speaker 1: I don't think any I don't think anybody's anointing him
Speaker 1: an elite quarterback. But he's But like I think when
Speaker 1: people say to it, they don't consider him like a
Speaker 1: top ten quarterback. I think he kind of teeters on
Speaker 1: the edge of a top ten I really.
Speaker 2: Do, maybe on the maybe on the edge.
Speaker 6: Yeah, would it be different if he was right handed?
Speaker 1: How so?
Speaker 6: What do you mean, Well, just visually, maybe a lot
Speaker 6: of people don't connect because it looks so different. Maybe
Speaker 6: it's like maybe you see it in golf all the time.
Speaker 6: I mean, it's it's kind of a common thing. Just
Speaker 6: looks different and people kind of get it in their
Speaker 6: minds that it's different.
Speaker 2: I mean, I definitely like Joe Montana more than something,
Speaker 2: if that's what you're asking me.
Speaker 1: Remember that stat before Tua showed up the last NF
Speaker 1: the last left handed quarterback to win a football game,
Speaker 1: who started an NFL game to win an NFL game?
Speaker 1: Do you remember who? The answer to that question was,
Speaker 1: sims Kellen Moore. I believe was thin It was years. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Like I don't like what happened to left handed quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: They just like disappeared when we were kids, they were.
Speaker 2: Who was it? I didn't hear you.
Speaker 1: Kellen Moore?
Speaker 2: Who was it?
Speaker 1: Kellen Moore?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 2: Kellen Moore?
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, Kellen Moore is left handed? Right? I didn't
Speaker 1: get that wrong? Okay, yeah, all right. Let me let
Speaker 1: me do two because we snake quarterback seventeenth seventeenth. Okay,
Speaker 1: who's rankings? Whose rankings?
Speaker 4: Like Sando? The survey with the GMS and the executives,
Speaker 4: et cetera.
Speaker 1: The surveys, the survey rankings from GMS. I like Sando.
Speaker 1: Sando's been on this show many times. You okay, I
Speaker 1: get I get two because I get the snake. What
Speaker 1: do you sing Seattle at right now? Todd? This has
Speaker 1: come down since guessing lines.
Speaker 4: On the.
Speaker 3: Seattle Seahawks are at I see him at plus five.
Speaker 1: Okay, uh it was plus six during guessing lines and
Speaker 1: I couldn't believe it. I will take the plus five
Speaker 1: here just because I'm gonna I'm gonna stay true to
Speaker 1: what my first reaction was of the week. I I'm
Speaker 1: just gonna base this on a complete Week one overreaction
Speaker 1: in the market. I get it. Detroit is on extra rest.
Speaker 1: They went in. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs, though
Speaker 1: was a Chris Jones list Travis Kelcey Liss Kansas City
Speaker 1: Chiefs team. I don't want to take too much away
Speaker 1: from them, but that's kind of a big deal. And
Speaker 1: I get it people think Detroit's a lot of people
Speaker 1: think Detroit it's gonna be great. A lot of people
Speaker 1: have them, as you know, no less than the fourth
Speaker 1: best team in the NFC. But if you just go
Speaker 1: back to the Wednesday before that, the day before, and
Speaker 1: if I told you that this was going to be
Speaker 1: the line, you'd probably be like, wait a minute, I
Speaker 1: thought Seattle was going to be the fourth best team
Speaker 1: in the NFC. What happened here? And Seattle couldn't have
Speaker 1: looked more horrible against the Rams. But it is the
Speaker 1: old thing. Marco Dangelo used to be on the show,
Speaker 1: used to say all the time, no team is as
Speaker 1: good as they look one week or as bad as
Speaker 1: they look the previous week. And I think this is
Speaker 1: too many points. I think Seattle keeps this close, if
Speaker 1: not wins it out right, but I think that's too
Speaker 1: many points. I will take the five on the Seattle Seahawks,
Speaker 1: just based on the fact that I think this is
Speaker 1: way too much of an overreaction, and I think that
Speaker 1: the way Dan Campbell plays, you know, I used to
Speaker 1: on guessing lines, I used to cite all of the
Speaker 1: fourth down tries that teams would take because they were
Speaker 1: so anomalous. Now I can't even do that anymore, because
Speaker 1: everybody tries to convert a fourth down from everywhere on
Speaker 1: the field. Everybody who used to crush Brandon Staley, everybody's
Speaker 1: playing like Brandon Staley now it seems like. And Dan Campbell,
Speaker 1: I think he makes some suboptimal decisions in this for
Speaker 1: the uh. I don't know if he's like trying to
Speaker 1: like fill this this narrative about him. So I gotta
Speaker 1: be the man go forward and stuff. And I think
Speaker 1: that nips him in the butt sometimes, and I think
Speaker 1: it will hear. I'll take Seattle plus the points in
Speaker 1: this ball game. Since we're snaking, I'll go again. I'll
Speaker 1: take the Chargers minus three. As bad as that defense looked,
Speaker 1: just we're again reacting to my first instincts. This week,
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans Ryan Tannehill and I know we'll get
Speaker 1: to this, Adam.
Speaker 3: Gilly, Yes, Billy continue, there's that thing. Friends don't let
Speaker 3: friends bet the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I know, I know. I say this movie.
Speaker 1: By the way, this could get this could get down
Speaker 1: to two and a half by it because it's minus
Speaker 1: three even at this point. But I'll lay the three
Speaker 1: on the chart Argers. I think Ryan Tannehill is Donzo.
Speaker 1: I know both Adam and Will are going to share
Speaker 1: with us that they Adam is a big Jets fan,
Speaker 1: that he may be pro Ryan Tannehill in terms of
Speaker 1: which quarterback the Jets should acquire. I think he looked
Speaker 1: awful against the Saints, and I as great as the
Speaker 1: Chargers offense was, so no problem there. But it's Brandon
Speaker 1: Staley who came as a defensive guy. This defense. How
Speaker 1: is this defense with all of these guys, with Khalil
Speaker 1: Mack and obviously with Joey Bosa and you have this
Speaker 1: just solid secondary. How can they possibly be this bat
Speaker 1: or is Miami just that good? I don't think the
Speaker 1: Titans can hold him on defense. I don't think the Chargers.
Speaker 1: I think the Chargers defense will actually step up here
Speaker 1: against a Tannehill ed team. I will lay the three
Speaker 1: points on the road with the Chargers. That's pick number
Speaker 1: two for me. Todd.
Speaker 3: Snaking back last night, I was watching some WNBA and
Speaker 3: losing bets, as I like to do in WNBA, and
Speaker 3: at the same time.
Speaker 1: I was.
Speaker 3: Using Twitter and I saw Adam Chuff, so I clicked
Speaker 3: on his show and I listened to the whole show.
Speaker 3: It was very enjoyable, Adam, thank you very much. It
Speaker 3: was some kind of a rass on YouTube. I don't
Speaker 3: know exactly what it is, but you could find it.
Speaker 3: But the point where informative. I learned on that show.
Speaker 3: There were quite a few injuries in a city just
Speaker 3: to the northeast of Washington called Baltimore, and they have
Speaker 3: quite a few injuries down in that neck of town,
Speaker 3: and they're playing against the Simpson The Cincinnati Bengals could
Speaker 3: not have looked worse as a football team than they
Speaker 3: looked in clean last week. Is Joe Burrow all of
Speaker 3: a sudden the second coming of I don't know.
Speaker 2: He looked.
Speaker 3: He looked as bad as a J Cutler. I mean,
Speaker 3: he was horrible last week. I've never seen Joe Burrow look.
Speaker 3: I had over thirty one and a half that I
Speaker 3: took at halftime is a ten to nothing game. I
Speaker 3: said to myself, they've got to go over thirty one
Speaker 3: and I have Joe Burrow will at least get a
Speaker 3: backdoor touchdown for me.
Speaker 2: Right, No, they don't get a better They don't even
Speaker 2: go forward on fourth and five down twenty three. Guys,
Speaker 2: what are you doing?
Speaker 3: You can with nine minutes left twenty four to three
Speaker 3: not going forward on fourth and five. Now, maybe they
Speaker 3: knew they weren't going to get it anyway, but the
Speaker 3: point is is Joe.
Speaker 2: Burrow did not look very good.
Speaker 3: I have a feeling that National Football League teams and
Speaker 3: very good ones have a tendency when they look horrendous,
Speaker 3: to look a lot better than next week. And now
Speaker 3: we're going against a Baltimore team that did what they
Speaker 3: had to do.
Speaker 2: They weren't great in the first half.
Speaker 3: I think that was more the other team was bad,
Speaker 3: the Texas are bad, or just you know, did what
Speaker 3: they had to do to get the W. But I
Speaker 3: didn't think Baltimore was looking that good. Adam turn Off
Speaker 3: tells me a thousand injuries on Baltimore? Am I correct,
Speaker 3: Adam that you said that there was eight thousand injuries
Speaker 3: on Baltimore.
Speaker 6: I think I said nine thousand, but you're directing me
Speaker 6: with eight.
Speaker 5: I would look back, but I was somewhere right.
Speaker 3: I was somewhere close that there's a lot of injuries
Speaker 3: on Baltimore. Give me the damn two day Bengals minus
Speaker 3: the three, and we're gonna get it done.
Speaker 4: Will Todd's point, I played under ten and a half
Speaker 4: wins for the Ravens. I think that's just so many injuries.
Speaker 4: They lost so many guys already. If you're resorting to
Speaker 4: Melvin Gordon at this point of his career running back,
Speaker 4: that's not a good sign. So I think under ten
Speaker 4: and a half is a good bet.
Speaker 1: Brought him up from the practice squad. Yeah, they had
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon on the practice squad.
Speaker 4: All right, I'm gonna go with a pick. I hate
Speaker 4: a team. I hate the Denver Broncos. I am gonna
Speaker 4: lay what are we seeing? Three and a half?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Three and a half?
Speaker 2: Laying, Gilly, what do you have on Denver?
Speaker 1: Three and a half? And I am let me just
Speaker 1: say this was my third pick as well.
Speaker 4: Go ahead, Well yeah, oh, I mean I visit. I
Speaker 4: am just nauseous even discussing this team. But uh, Washington
Speaker 4: on the road. Look, I mentioned I had Washington survivor
Speaker 4: last week. It wasn't pretty, it wasn't easy. That offensive
Speaker 4: line was really bad. Howell got hit a ton. I
Speaker 4: didn't think Howe was very accurate. Now you got one
Speaker 4: to o teeth, fat and happy. They're going on the
Speaker 4: road a team that can't afford to be oh and two,
Speaker 4: and be oh and two with two home games in Denver.
Speaker 4: This is sort of a must win game for Denver.
Speaker 4: I just don't know that offensive line for Washington's going
Speaker 4: to travel well here. So I will lay the three
Speaker 4: and a half with Denver.
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you. I'll get to mine in
Speaker 1: a minute.
Speaker 5: Adam, So I got to go two here for the
Speaker 5: sake of the snake.
Speaker 1: Is that right? It's two for the sake of a snake.
Speaker 1: That's exactly right, all right.
Speaker 6: I'm calling on the official stenographer here of the show
Speaker 6: to give me a ruling on the Jacksonville point spread.
Speaker 5: Is three and a half? Fair here?
Speaker 2: That's what I'm thinking. Three and a half for Jags.
Speaker 1: Three and a half.
Speaker 6: Okay, So let's do the Jaggs is pick number two
Speaker 6: plus three and a half. I think there's potential here
Speaker 6: that the Chiefs go through a couple more weeks of
Speaker 6: growing pains with these wide receivers. And what concerned me
Speaker 6: most was it was two of the three veterans they
Speaker 6: have on the roster and Tony and Moore who really
Speaker 6: struggled and Detrian's a big word for both of those guys,
Speaker 6: but it kind of reflects the state of what they
Speaker 6: have at wide receiver. And so Kelsey's going to come back,
Speaker 6: not one hundred percent, he's going to play. He's going
Speaker 6: to have an impact. Absolutely, Chris Jones is going to
Speaker 6: come back. It's going to have an impact. I believe
Speaker 6: that entirely. I just worry a little bit that things
Speaker 6: aren't quite figured out on offense. And it's a bold
Speaker 6: thing to say against Andy Reid and Mahomes, but.
Speaker 5: I think these wide receivers are going to.
Speaker 6: Take a lot of time, just like the secondary did
Speaker 6: a year ago, and just like we see the Chiefs
Speaker 6: have with some positional group almost every season. So jaggs
Speaker 6: off that playoff for event getting three and a half
Speaker 6: half at home with an offense that looks fantastic with
Speaker 6: Ridley added in and a couple more sneaky weapons too.
Speaker 6: I'll take the three and a half at home with
Speaker 6: the Jagss.
Speaker 1: Pick number two, Yeah, Preople missed it. Chris Jones did
Speaker 1: sign he will be there with the Chiefs. But yeah,
Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley off the parlay looking good? All right? What's
Speaker 1: your last one?
Speaker 5: Really good? All right? Pick number three? Odd, you went
Speaker 5: with Cincinnati.
Speaker 6: That's where I was ago, But for the sake of
Speaker 6: the show, we'll diversify here. I saw the Giants number
Speaker 6: come back as we were recording, and so I think
Speaker 6: four and a half price there. Yeah, I'll pretty happily
Speaker 6: take that one. Did earlier in the week as well,
Speaker 6: and now that it's back, I think it's fair to
Speaker 6: talk about. What I'm really like is day Ball and
Speaker 6: Kafka do a ton of stuff pre snap. They're really
Speaker 6: good at forcing mismatches downfield. That Dallas matchup for them
Speaker 6: is horrible. They struggled last year. They looked awful on
Speaker 6: Sunday Night. That was kind of the expectation. Really like
Speaker 6: the Cowboys in Week one. But similar to what you
Speaker 6: were saying about the Bengals, Todd like, there's some matchups
Speaker 6: for teams that just are really, really bad matchups for
Speaker 6: what they do. I think Arizona is the opposite. I
Speaker 6: think their defense looked much better than anyone thought it
Speaker 6: could against a really bad Washington offense. With Sam Howell
Speaker 6: as a rookie, I think this is a completely different
Speaker 6: thing that they're going to have to deal with. I
Speaker 6: think Dable and Kafka really take advantage of all these
Speaker 6: guys who are overplaying routes and jumping routes and getting
Speaker 6: way too aggraph the edges against Washington. They're just not
Speaker 6: going to get away with it against these two guys,
Speaker 6: and so I think it's a big rebounds spot for
Speaker 6: the Giants.
Speaker 5: I'll take four and a half there.
Speaker 1: Yeah. God, I love all these picks too. This is
Speaker 1: one I'm thinking of too, by the way, the must
Speaker 1: win situation for the Giants in week number two, because boy,
Speaker 1: if they were to lose this that schedule, who could
Speaker 1: get ugly. And I have an alternate underwind total on
Speaker 1: the Giants, but even I love them here against the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: Will your last one?
Speaker 4: Obviously I've better at three. I'll still stick with the
Speaker 4: Bears plus two and a half. I just think you
Speaker 4: go back to season win totals Bear and a half
Speaker 4: Bucks were six and a half. I had this logic
Speaker 4: last week with Dolphins charges, where I just I can't
Speaker 4: get past the point where these teams are any but
Speaker 4: even ish. So Tampa's home field's not worth two and
Speaker 4: a half. Again, two and a half's not a key number,
Speaker 4: but no one wone getting points against a one and
Speaker 4: zero team. I will take Chicago here plus.
Speaker 1: The two and a half, Chicago plus the two. And
Speaker 1: I've heard so many differing opinions on that game. It's
Speaker 1: unbelievable for such a direc football game. God, your last.
Speaker 3: One before I say my last one, just as like
Speaker 3: a little bonus action. Adam, how do you feel about
Speaker 3: the team total under seventeen and a half for your
Speaker 3: Arizona team that didn't really anything tremendously against Washington and
Speaker 3: now you're and remember the Giants really didn't play that
Speaker 3: bad on defense. It just gave away touchdowns on lock
Speaker 3: field goals and interceptions and all kind of nonsense. You're
Speaker 3: telling the era is going to get up over the seventeen.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think under seventeen and a half
Speaker 2: looks really delicious. And as a team.
Speaker 6: Total, I you just sold me on a team total
Speaker 6: which is not what I expect to come out of
Speaker 6: the podcast with. But I think that's a pretty good look.
Speaker 6: Wink is gonna blitz a ton Mike. You met they
Speaker 6: held the Cowboys. Can I remember the number on top
Speaker 6: of it was like four point one four point two
Speaker 6: yards per play, which weather assisted a little bit. But yeah,
Speaker 6: it's Josh Dobbs is gonna have to deal with a
Speaker 6: lot upfront for sure.
Speaker 1: You just call that delicious delicious? Is that what you said?
Speaker 3: I feel it's a it's a nice low cow dessert.
Speaker 3: Arizona Cardinals under seventeen and a half. You have to
Speaker 3: pay a little extra big, but it is quite delicious.
Speaker 3: So I'll probably be playing that one. Okay, So for
Speaker 3: my third one, I'm gonna do something crazy here. I'm
Speaker 3: gonna go down in the North Shore for week number two.
Speaker 3: And here's the thing you're saying, we talked, Are you crazy?
Speaker 3: You're gonna pay eighty dollars to park down air because
Speaker 3: everybody's down there. You drive at ten thirty, there's people everywhere.
Speaker 3: You don't even what you're doing. You can't park, you
Speaker 3: can't get out of your car. It's a disaster, right,
Speaker 3: But if you got the River's couponds, you can park
Speaker 3: for free. That's what I'll be doing. I'll be going
Speaker 3: down Air and I'll be parking for free, and I'll
Speaker 3: be telling you right now that the Pittsburg Stellers lost
Speaker 3: a football game to the Niners. Everybody's gonna lose to
Speaker 3: the Niners. The Niners are a great football team. We're
Speaker 3: not that bad. We're just not that bad. And I
Speaker 3: think when you're telling me that the Cleveland Bronze spelled
Speaker 3: b r a whns, the Cleveland Brons are gonna come
Speaker 3: into a place where they never have a good time
Speaker 3: down here. I think, where's one playoff game they played well?
Speaker 2: Other than that, they have a hass of horrors. It's
Speaker 2: a hass of horrors down here.
Speaker 3: They're gonna have a real hard time because our Steeler
Speaker 3: defense is gonna show up. I think our Kenny Pickett,
Speaker 3: which you know, I was a little skeptical about Kenny Pickett,
Speaker 3: and I didn't like.
Speaker 2: All the hype.
Speaker 3: But now Tomlin gets everybody's attention. He says, listen, Insers,
Speaker 3: I never have a losing season. I can't go ohing two.
Speaker 3: Give me the Pittsburg Steelers. What's a tow and a half.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 1: I have to tell you, first of all, I love
Speaker 1: the Losers. I love that part the I these are
Speaker 1: all my contest picks. I'm all. I'm with you on
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh too, like I absolutely think, and I'll run my
Speaker 1: head into a wall against him because I ran my
Speaker 1: head into the wall with him last week. But I
Speaker 1: really feel like, let me, let me just ask about
Speaker 1: the other side, the Brownies part of that. Mike Palm,
Speaker 1: who used to be on this, on this megapod, he believes,
Speaker 1: if I heard this correctly, he thinks the Browns are
Speaker 1: either the second or let me not say that they're
Speaker 1: a top three NFL team. He believes that do you
Speaker 1: believe that, Adam, that the Browns are that good?
Speaker 6: The aggregate ratings that I look at, which pull power
Speaker 6: ratings from numerous different sources, have the Browns eight after
Speaker 6: this week, which I saw on the second to get
Speaker 6: my head around, because my initial reaction was that that's high.
Speaker 6: But you know, the one thing that he kind of
Speaker 6: intrigues me. They added a lot of defensive pieces, especially
Speaker 6: up front, and the change to Jim Schwartz took this
Speaker 6: this defense a week ago against the Bengals, if that
Speaker 6: incase things to come.
Speaker 5: They're going from a sort.
Speaker 6: Of mid level aggression defense like they were in twenty
Speaker 6: twenty two against Joe Burrow. He was blitzing a ton,
Speaker 6: was dating a ton of pressure. Like this defense has
Speaker 6: completely flipped. And if that's a sign of things to come,
Speaker 6: and they play rest of every week, you can put
Speaker 6: the defensive side right up there with the likes of
Speaker 6: the four Ninders and the Steelers for the best units
Speaker 6: in the NFL. So I believe it on that side,
Speaker 6: not there yet unwided. I mean, we're starting to see
Speaker 6: this rated really high.
Speaker 1: Well, Todd, you if you let him finish. That's exactly
Speaker 1: what he said, which I think is I think most
Speaker 1: people can get with that. But the defense is maybe
Speaker 1: top tier. But DeShawn looked like dashit, I guess, is
Speaker 1: what I would say, right Like, he didn't look good
Speaker 1: at all.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you think that he's better than Zack Wilson because
Speaker 6: a lot of people making the case that the Jets
Speaker 6: can be a contender with their defense if the defense
Speaker 6: is that level and you get more from DeShawn, should
Speaker 6: the same case be made about the Browns?
Speaker 1: What's your point that meaning that Deshaun that that we
Speaker 1: think of Deshaun Watson is so much better than Zach Wilson,
Speaker 1: But maybe he isn't Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 6: Well, I think the sort of sentiment that I have
Speaker 6: taken away from a lot of media after the night
Speaker 6: game for the Jets was that this team can threaten
Speaker 6: making the playoffs and they would be very close to
Speaker 6: being a contender if they had like a top level quarterback,
Speaker 6: and now with Zach Wilson, they can survive because of
Speaker 6: their defense and still compete. My question with the Browns
Speaker 6: is if that defense is on the same level as
Speaker 6: the Jets, which it's very very well in that conversation, right,
Speaker 6: if Deshaun Watson is above average, we should be talking
Speaker 6: about the Browns in the same way that Mike Palm.
Speaker 1: Maybe you're right, Maybe he's right. Yeah, maybe so he did.
Speaker 4: I mean I got crossed by mind Cleveland ten to
Speaker 4: one to win the AFC. Browns tend to one at idd.
Speaker 4: I haven't pulled the trigger, but that's definitely to me
Speaker 4: they are a fat tails team just because the uncertainty
Speaker 4: with Watson, the good on defense, I did take them
Speaker 4: to win the division. I'm high on Cleveland. I think
Speaker 4: it's a good ross.
Speaker 1: My final pick, by the way, as I already mentioned,
Speaker 1: is gonna be the same as Will's, which is I
Speaker 1: took Denver. I laid the three and a half. I
Speaker 1: don't love laying the hook, but I'll lay the hook
Speaker 1: because as a lifelong Washington fan, this just ain't a
Speaker 1: game they win. I don't know how else to put it.
Speaker 1: It's like a Malcolm Gladwell blink kind of thing. I
Speaker 1: can't really explain it to you, but they don't win
Speaker 1: this kind of game, and they don't look very good
Speaker 1: this kind of game. And these are even in the
Speaker 1: best years. This is even Joe Gibbs one point zero.
Speaker 1: They don't go on the road to an unfamiliar AFC opponent,
Speaker 1: let alone an elevation, and win a game like this,
Speaker 1: and this outfit with a horrible offensive line, it appears
Speaker 1: in front of Sam Howe. I don't even blame the
Speaker 1: kid for that Week one performance. That offensive line was
Speaker 1: always the big question about the Washington Commanders football team,
Speaker 1: and it remains the biggest question mark. Because their defensive
Speaker 1: front is solid. No one ever questioned that their secondary
Speaker 1: might be live. It could be much improved, they got skill,
Speaker 1: they got a few skill position players, certainly Terry McLaurin.
Speaker 1: Sam Howe's the question. But that offensive line is the
Speaker 1: big weakness. And I think Denver, who no one ever
Speaker 1: really questioned their defense last year. They lost that game
Speaker 1: to the Raiders. One could say that it was lost
Speaker 1: on the very first decision by Sean Payton to kick
Speaker 1: that on side kick, which backfired on him, gave the
Speaker 1: Raiders a short field. They went up seven to nothing,
Speaker 1: they won by a point. They don't do that. Maybe
Speaker 1: the Broncos do win that game. Russell Wilson looks, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of what you would expect from a guy who
Speaker 1: looked like crap last year and who might be improved
Speaker 1: under Sean Payton. But I think he's good enough to,
Speaker 1: you know, talk about quarterbacks that we just did, like
Speaker 1: DeShawn and Zach Wilson, who can just do what they
Speaker 1: can and let the defense win games for him. I
Speaker 1: think this applies to Russell Wilson and the Broncos here.
Speaker 1: I don't think Washington wins this game. I think they
Speaker 1: don't cover either. I'll take the Broncos minus three and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 3: Do you think they go over seventeen points, gilly, because
Speaker 3: I don't.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't bet the over on it. I'll tell you that.
Speaker 4: Todd said, do you think they go over seventeen points?
Speaker 4: Does he mean Washington?
Speaker 1: Yeah, he means, why I don't think Washington.
Speaker 3: I don't think Washington can get over seventeen points. That's
Speaker 3: another team total that I like. In fact, Washington got
Speaker 3: a lot of their points just because Arizona said, oh, sorry,
Speaker 3: we don't.
Speaker 2: Win this game. Here you can have it. Do you
Speaker 2: remember Washington in Arizona?
Speaker 1: Do you remember the old Eddie Murphy one of the
Speaker 1: great Eddie Murphy's sketches in Saturday Night Live when he
Speaker 1: was a regular cast, Remember where he put on makeup
Speaker 1: to be a white guy, and the whole conceit of
Speaker 1: the of the sketch was that wins through white when
Speaker 1: black people aren't around, white people just give each other shit.
Speaker 1: And there's the famous one where he just go ahead,
Speaker 1: take the newspaper. That's exactly what Arizona did to Washington
Speaker 1: last week. Yeah much money would you like? How much
Speaker 1: money would you like? That's right? I forgot about that line.
Speaker 1: It was so great. It's an iconic sketch. Well you
Speaker 1: know Arizona dead, Washington got the game tying touchdown and
Speaker 1: sealed the deal on ridiculous Arizona turnovers. So I believe,
Speaker 1: by the way, that's one one of my survivor entries
Speaker 1: is just the fade Arizona entry. I don't even think
Speaker 1: about it. I just robotically take the team against Arizona.
Speaker 1: We'll see how far that entry gets. Just doing that
Speaker 1: teaser of the week, there's a lot of teaser options, Adam,
Speaker 1: what do you think is the best two team six
Speaker 1: point teaser?
Speaker 6: Well, the Cowboys are borderline right now, so I'll.
Speaker 5: House on that one.
Speaker 6: I'll go with the Bills down and the forty nine
Speaker 6: Ers down.
Speaker 1: Bills down, forty Nice Bills got into a nice Wong
Speaker 1: teaser range this morning, right, So that is yes, it did. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you can go through the seven and the three now
Speaker 1: with that, So Bills and Niners from Adam, with the uh,
Speaker 1: the Bills, of course, I already forgot, I already forgot
Speaker 1: who these teams are are are playing. The Bills of course,
Speaker 1: are hosting the du Las Vegas Raiders, Raiders, and of
Speaker 1: course the Niners on the road against the Rams, who
Speaker 1: looked really good week number one will what's yours.
Speaker 4: Twenty options here? I will go with the Bills. Uh
Speaker 4: take that on your goal, and I'll take the Steelers,
Speaker 4: which you guys mentioned Steelers Brown's type and no idea,
Speaker 4: who'snna win. That should be a close game. But I'd
Speaker 4: be happy to sit there with plus eight and a
Speaker 4: half my pocket. So Steelers Bills stop.
Speaker 2: That's the same thing that I'm doing.
Speaker 3: I'm taking the Bills minus to two and a half
Speaker 3: because I just think that the Bills are gonna somehow.
Speaker 2: You know, the Bills will find a way. Although you
Speaker 2: know Jimmy G.
Speaker 3: You know, we always talk about how many balls he
Speaker 3: throws directly to the other team that don't get turned
Speaker 3: into interceptions that we call the itch. Jimmy G kind
Speaker 3: of played a pretty decent gamely, and we might want
Speaker 3: to tip our hat.
Speaker 2: Remember Derek Carr.
Speaker 3: I don't know if anybody, if it irks anybody as
Speaker 3: much as Derek Carr irks me. I watched Derek Carr
Speaker 3: and he just used to drive me bananas.
Speaker 2: And now they don't have him, and now they have
Speaker 2: Jimmy G.
Speaker 3: You know, maybe as Jimmy G a step up from
Speaker 3: from Derek Carr. I wouldn't be surprised I'd watched that team.
Speaker 3: I still think the Stills will get their minus to
Speaker 3: two and a half. And I like my Stillers for
Speaker 3: the reasons I said already, do.
Speaker 1: You think do you think the guys that are about
Speaker 1: to pick off the passes from Jimmy g they catch
Speaker 1: a glint of his eyes. They stare him in the eyes,
Speaker 1: and he's so beautiful that they're like, I can't catch
Speaker 1: this ball. Do you think that happens?
Speaker 4: And I heard one guy say that once actually happened.
Speaker 1: Is that right? They're like, oh my god, they don't
Speaker 1: catch it. I have the exact same teaser. We are doomed.
Speaker 1: We are so on this. I like the Bills and
Speaker 1: the and the Steelers. There's no chance. Whenever three people
Speaker 1: have the same thing, it never works.
Speaker 2: Everybody should just go bet the reverse teaser.
Speaker 1: It's like a would you say, Todd, it's a w
Speaker 1: NBA pick of yours. Just fade it. That was what
Speaker 1: you were saying last night. Just fade me. Yeah, it's Bills.
Speaker 1: And if the Steelers are gonna kill me again or
Speaker 1: kill us again, so be it. What is it? Shame
Speaker 1: on me? Shame on you once, stame on me twice.
Speaker 1: Whatever it is. Yeah, if I if I jack it
Speaker 1: up the first time, shame on you, but the second time,
Speaker 1: shame on me. This could be that if Steelers can't
Speaker 1: cover the eight and a half here against the Browns,
Speaker 1: then oh well, by the way, it's a double header.
Speaker 1: It's a Monday night double header for those who miss it.
Speaker 1: I probably should have started out by saying that the
Speaker 1: Dolphins Patriots game is a Sunday night game, and then
Speaker 1: we have the Saints Panthers start at seven to fifteen
Speaker 1: Eastern four to fifteen Pacific, an hour later, so we
Speaker 1: won't quite be at halftime. The Browns and the Steelers
Speaker 1: kick off in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: Why are they doing that?
Speaker 1: It's very odd this was they mentioned this. Now now
Speaker 1: that it's happening. I remember there was an off season
Speaker 1: thing where they're like, oh, yeah, this is gonna happen.
Speaker 1: It's gonna happen more than just this week too. It
Speaker 1: happens again. I think it might even happen three times
Speaker 1: this year. I'm not sure. Don't holpe me to.
Speaker 3: That, But why don't you just start the pay the
Speaker 3: Panther game two hours early?
Speaker 1: Well, that's the part that bothers me because they when
Speaker 1: they used to do the opening night Monday night doubleheader,
Speaker 1: they used to stagger where you could watch everything. Now
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to have two TVs going, you know.
Speaker 4: And then we had the COVID year where we get
Speaker 4: at these Randy at five o'clock Eastern starts or Tuesday
Speaker 4: five o'clock. That was the one thing that was fun
Speaker 4: about that COVID year. We just random games at random times.
Speaker 4: But this doesn't call a lot of sense, that's right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay. Which brings us to is our final two
Speaker 1: questions already? Oh, Survivor, Survivor Adam, are you in Survivor
Speaker 1: this year? Are you playing Survivor?
Speaker 5: Yeah, we're in.
Speaker 6: We're in everything and everything all over, so we're loaded up.
Speaker 6: Don't know, don't know if this will be the one
Speaker 6: we go with, but it would be my choice.
Speaker 5: I'd go with the Saints.
Speaker 1: You'd go with the Saints.
Speaker 5: Really wow, I would go with the Saints.
Speaker 6: I think the I think it's a spot where you
Speaker 6: can eventually get away from any of these huge favorites
Speaker 6: which are going to get a lot of the attention.
Speaker 6: And that's a number there that's I think a little
Speaker 6: bit more it. I thought the move was really telling
Speaker 6: to sort of reflect the state of the Panthers. A
Speaker 6: couple of injuries on the offensive line, showed up and
Speaker 6: lost their best corner on defense, their wide receivers are
Speaker 6: banged up, nobody can get open. I think it's a
Speaker 6: tough one for the Panthers. So I would go way
Speaker 6: off the board here I go Saints and hope you
Speaker 6: get some carnage on Sunday.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's I mean again for those who who heard
Speaker 1: that and are like, what the ad them do it?
Speaker 1: That's what that's what survivor is about. Though I say
Speaker 1: that all the time. It's it shouldn't be name survivor.
Speaker 1: It's right, it's misappropriately named, because again, the object is
Speaker 1: not to survive. The object is to win. Now Adam
Speaker 1: is doing it with with you know, Ballsy here early
Speaker 1: in week two where we don't really have every team
Speaker 1: sort of with our with our arms wrapped around him yet.
Speaker 1: But the object of that is to have like a buffalo,
Speaker 1: for instance, right to fall and then carnage would ensue,
Speaker 1: and then if you advance, you're in this awesome position
Speaker 1: at that point. So New Orleans, the first of the
Speaker 1: two Monday night games would be his play in Survivor.
Speaker 1: Didn't expect that will.
Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna go with Denver just because the
Speaker 4: team I don't want to use down the road, and
Speaker 4: like I mentioned, I don't know that Washington's offensive line
Speaker 4: is gonna travel well how on the road. I want
Speaker 4: to know a team versus the oh and to one team.
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think it's gonna be Denver. I'm not,
Speaker 4: I'm not. It's not penciled in, you know, it's not
Speaker 4: written in stone at this point, but it's going to
Speaker 4: be Denver.
Speaker 1: I had five entries to begin with, and Survivor I
Speaker 1: lost on Denver last week as the only one that
Speaker 1: went out. I'm going to have Denver on one more
Speaker 1: of them this week, and if I lose on them again, Uh, Todd,
Speaker 1: excuse my language, Todd.
Speaker 2: I haven't looked the whole thing over yet, but just
Speaker 2: off the top of my head, I might have to
Speaker 2: take the Giants again. Its Arizona.
Speaker 3: You know, I don't think that I'm gonna be using
Speaker 3: the Giants down the road because I don't really love
Speaker 3: the Giants. So probably the Giants, but I haven't really
Speaker 3: looked it over yet.
Speaker 1: To So I meant on Wednesday, I mentioned on a
Speaker 1: Numbers game on Wednesday, I have four entries left. One
Speaker 1: will be the Broncos and one will be the Giants
Speaker 1: for sure, the Giants being the fade Arizona one. So
Speaker 1: for me, it's that, and then I think I'll have
Speaker 1: to include Buffalo as well. I'm not gonna go I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna push all on one team, but some combination
Speaker 1: of Buffalo, Denver and the Giants. For me, what could
Speaker 1: possibly go wrong? What could possibly go wrong? All right?
Speaker 1: Final two questions, and again, let me just apologize in
Speaker 1: advance to everybody. Not in advance, but while it's happening,
Speaker 1: I know the audio has not been up to snuff
Speaker 1: on this particular show. I think we've gotten the gist
Speaker 1: of everything everybody's saying, though, I promise you this will
Speaker 1: not be the case moving forward, nor has it ever
Speaker 1: been before. Unacceptable. I'm not gonna have the megapod messed with.
Speaker 1: So final two questions of the big favorites, and let
Speaker 1: me list the ones that qualify. Which is the one
Speaker 1: Adam that you think is the most likely to lose? Outright?
Speaker 1: This is also sort of the money line parlay killer segment,
Speaker 1: if you will. So the Eagles are I'm seeing some
Speaker 1: ticks six concent six point favorites tonight at home against
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. Also a choice in this. The Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bills eight and a half point favorites at home against
Speaker 1: the Raiders. The San Francisco forty nine ers are seven
Speaker 1: now seven no longer seven and a half. Seven point
Speaker 1: favorites at home excuse me on the road, pardon me
Speaker 1: against the at the Los Angeles Rams Cowboys, eight and
Speaker 1: a half or nine point favorites at home against the
Speaker 1: New York Jets, and those Oh and then yeah, those
Speaker 1: are your options. Of those four I believe I mentioned four, one, two, three, four,
Speaker 1: which is the most likely to lose outright.
Speaker 6: Have to say, the Eagles, a really powerful group hit
Speaker 6: the Jets yesterday, which makes me sort of want to
Speaker 6: go that direction. But I think the Vikings of these underdogs,
Speaker 6: has the best offense by quite a considerable margin, and
Speaker 6: so in terms of getting some points to pull the
Speaker 6: up said, I would go to Minnesota in that one.
Speaker 1: By the way, when we did this last week, Will
Speaker 1: had Kansas City. They lost out right. Feazick and I
Speaker 1: had Minnesota. They lost out right, Todd, what did you have?
Speaker 1: You had the.
Speaker 2: The Jets.
Speaker 1: You had the clses to be the Jets, and they
Speaker 1: might have to be the Jags, and they almost did.
Speaker 1: By the way, how did the Colts not cover that game? Good?
Speaker 1: Good grief.
Speaker 4: Let's move on. Let's move on. I don't need to
Speaker 4: relive that. Let's just move on.
Speaker 1: Oh my god. They were up with the ball with
Speaker 1: like twelve minutes left, and then they that punt return
Speaker 1: from chabal Agnes changed everything.
Speaker 3: They were also at the one yard line for the
Speaker 3: back door touchdown, and then their quarterback got a boo boo,
Speaker 3: and then they put in some other guy who's terrible
Speaker 3: and would even get it in garden.
Speaker 4: Part of let's move on was unclear. Let's just I
Speaker 4: don't have to be that was awful, all.
Speaker 1: Right, will same question. What's the big favorite most likely
Speaker 1: to lose out right this week?
Speaker 4: I'll go Dallas Jets defense in the in the game.
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, I couldn't hear who he asked, but I
Speaker 4: will go with the Cowboys just because the defense of
Speaker 4: the Okay, god, I mean, I know, I.
Speaker 3: Said the Bills. I like the Bills and the teaser.
Speaker 3: But I could make a case.
Speaker 2: For the Jimmy g Raiders going into Buffalo and you know,
Speaker 2: using the Jets.
Speaker 3: You know, maybe there's something wrong with the Bills. I mean,
Speaker 3: I don't really think there is there is. I just
Speaker 3: think that was a Jets defense and that's what everybody thinks.
Speaker 3: But maybe there maybe there's some tape that shows how
Speaker 3: to slow the Bills down and the Raiders could figure
Speaker 3: it out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I have to pick the Bills too,
Speaker 1: not because I think it's going to happen, like you said,
Speaker 1: but if I'm thinking about the Niners, which by the way,
Speaker 1: isn't exactly as as much as I love the Niners, like,
Speaker 1: the little part of me wonders about that too. But
Speaker 1: I think the Bills are the one, and yes they
Speaker 1: should have beaten the Jets, but the Josh Allen not
Speaker 1: caring for the football thing, you know, the three picks
Speaker 1: to Jordan Whitehead obviously the fun Well, he's a fumble machine.
Speaker 1: He's had the most turnovers in the NFL since the
Speaker 1: year twenty nineteen of any quarterback. And if as long
Speaker 1: as you're a turnover machine, there's always that chance, right,
Speaker 1: So he's to me, they're the answer the Buffalo Bills,
Speaker 1: even though I don't think it's gonna happen, They're the
Speaker 1: answer to that question.
Speaker 4: The coach thinks too. I'm not a McDermott fan. The
Speaker 4: thirteen seconds in Kansas City last year, the no show
Speaker 4: at Big Favorite to Home against the Bengals. I thought
Speaker 4: he coached a terrible game the other night, overtime and
Speaker 4: second and fifteen he runs a draw. I mean, how
Speaker 4: do you lose that game the other night? To me,
Speaker 4: McDermott's not a good coach.
Speaker 1: And do you agree with what I said on You know,
Speaker 1: I said this during the game we were texting Will
Speaker 1: and then I also mentioned it on Guessing Lines on Monday,
Speaker 1: which is Bucket. Aikman did not seize on this at all.
Speaker 1: That second that penalty, that offensive PI that would have
Speaker 1: pushed a zero line field goal from forty three yards
Speaker 1: to fifty three if the Jets didn't move the ball.
Speaker 1: He just said, decline the penalty, and Zerline kicks a
Speaker 1: forty three yard field goal, which cut the score from
Speaker 1: to thirteen to six at the time, and Aikman and
Speaker 1: buck said nothing, And I thought like they might have
Speaker 1: lost the game. On that in the end, Like, that's
Speaker 1: a terrible decision, right there.
Speaker 4: Not a fan, not a fan of the coach at all.
Speaker 2: Yeah, anyway, I will love to trip somebody on a
Speaker 2: punt return, very very obviously. Is that now part of
Speaker 2: the rout?
Speaker 3: Is that part of the rules you're allowed to just
Speaker 3: throw your leg down and trip a guy on a
Speaker 3: punt return.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, what was got a lot of backlash. What
Speaker 1: would Todd is referring to is on the winning punt
Speaker 1: return from Gibson that there was a there was a
Speaker 1: trip that went uncalled. And John Perry, they're officiating consultant
Speaker 1: on the broadcast, made a point to say that the
Speaker 1: issue with what people had with what he said was
Speaker 1: is that it comes with an asterisk, right, that the
Speaker 1: win comes with an asterisk, which I bet anyway, Yeah,
Speaker 1: which I believe was on the heels of Tariko the
Speaker 1: previous week when the Lions beat the Chiefs saying this
Speaker 1: win comes with an asterisk because they didn't have Travis
Speaker 1: Kelce or Chris So. I think people got really pissed
Speaker 1: about that. But listen, it was it probably a call, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it probably was. But like stuff gets missed all the time,
Speaker 1: and we.
Speaker 4: Were still in orderline field goal range, and all these
Speaker 4: games bleed together. Wasn't there an early whistle at some
Speaker 4: point where the Jets had a fumble and maybe a
Speaker 4: fumble were a touchdown and they blew it dead? Or
Speaker 4: is that m I think of a different game.
Speaker 1: Maybe you're thinking of the Cal game on Saturday night
Speaker 1: where Cal got posed by that Cal should have had
Speaker 1: a defensive touchdown and it got whistled dead ended up
Speaker 1: costing them the game.
Speaker 4: Probably, I'm trying to think. I think it was the
Speaker 4: Jets game where they I don't know if they were
Speaker 4: reviewed it. It was in the first half where I think
Speaker 4: they blew an early whistle. They blew something dead. I'm
Speaker 4: trying to think of the play.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, the reason I got so upset with that
Speaker 3: will is I had the game to land odd and
Speaker 3: if they kicked the field though, nineteen sixteen is the
Speaker 3: final and I don't know how the game doesn't land odd.
Speaker 3: It was like so perfectly set up, you know, thirteen thirteen,
Speaker 3: give me sixteen thirteen, give me nineteen sixteen, give me
Speaker 3: anything that is the norm away it's supposed to land
Speaker 3: and I win, and then the kicker, the punter doesn't
Speaker 3: olay even after the trip, all that punter guy has
Speaker 3: to do is like hold him up just a little
Speaker 3: bit and the cavalry is gonna come and make the
Speaker 3: tackle at the seven, they kick the field goal. No,
Speaker 3: that guy doesn't completely olay touch that.
Speaker 1: I was live undering that game repeatedly, and the fact
Speaker 1: that I only ended up winning like two of those
Speaker 1: live unders, or even like the pre flop and one
Speaker 1: live was just ridiculous. In the end, You're like, I
Speaker 1: cannot believe I didn't win all of these, Like that
Speaker 1: was just such a such an unbelievable result of that game.
Speaker 1: I alluded to this earlier that off air, Adam, you're
Speaker 1: a Jets fan, Bryan Tannehill is the guy you would
Speaker 1: want on the roster. Now, that's who you would like.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it was.
Speaker 6: Alva tweeted it this morning, and it was It was
Speaker 6: a perfect explanation when you think about trying to find
Speaker 6: the veteran quarterback that's not somebody that's been on the
Speaker 6: shelf or away from real playing time for the better
Speaker 6: part of two or three years, like most other lists
Speaker 6: conceived of, Tannehill's the guy that is for the team
Speaker 6: that has the most to evaluate. Behind him, Willis took
Speaker 6: what looked to be a pretty considerable second year leap.
Speaker 6: They also have Will Levis and Tannehill's been a guy
Speaker 6: that's got teams with our last offensive talent as that
Speaker 6: game manager role to the playoffs in the past too.
Speaker 6: So I think that that could work now when it
Speaker 6: comes to the whole cap situation and capital and what
Speaker 6: cannon cannot be given up, that's a whole different conversation,
Speaker 6: but I think that would be the name that certainly
Speaker 6: jumps up the most of me.
Speaker 1: No, that is that that is more than one surprising
Speaker 1: thing from you on on this show, the survivor pick
Speaker 1: being the other one.
Speaker 3: I is available as well as jig del home and
Speaker 3: Don Strock available.
Speaker 1: Don Strock always a reliable backup. You gotta go with
Speaker 1: Don Strock. Uh No. And I was also saying, because
Speaker 1: there was like all these other reports, Oh, why they're
Speaker 1: interested in Jacoby present? Why in the world would Washington
Speaker 1: trade Jacoby percent that like to go the rest of
Speaker 1: the year with Sam Howell and Jake from State Farm.
Speaker 1: They don't want to do that. They don't want to
Speaker 1: do that at all. So I mean there's there's some
Speaker 1: of these Chris Collins worst famous line most important position
Speaker 1: is quarterback. Second most important position is backup quarterback. So
Speaker 1: a lot of these that are speculative. I'm just like,
Speaker 1: why would that team do that? Tannehill about that guy Dutch?
Speaker 1: Tannehill makes sense, but the Steelers had that guy Dutch
Speaker 1: Hobbs or what.
Speaker 2: Was his name.
Speaker 3: He had like a funny name, duck Yeah, yeah, douc
Speaker 3: Hodges or something like that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you can't quarterback?
Speaker 1: What does it? Will say again, will you can't?
Speaker 4: Just want to go back? I think he was in
Speaker 4: a press conference and they were asking me a second question,
Speaker 4: a third question about the quarterback. He goes, look, guys,
Speaker 4: what do you think I can do? Just pick up
Speaker 4: the phone and dial wanting hundred quarterback and they bring
Speaker 4: me a player.
Speaker 1: It's not how it worked, That's right, uh Adam. Also,
Speaker 1: before before we asked the final question, you said, also,
Speaker 1: I don't want to put you on the spot, but
Speaker 1: like you have, you have some opinions. What would you
Speaker 1: characterize as like your most outlying opinion right now, based
Speaker 1: on either the market or based on what you're hearing,
Speaker 1: just sort of anecdotally, what what do you believe that
Speaker 1: most others don't.
Speaker 6: Oh what stands out the most right now?
Speaker 5: I think that I think Cowboys vaccines?
Speaker 1: Adam, I guess, yeah, what do you think about the vacs?
Speaker 5: He said? Opinion? No, I think Cowboys super Bowl. Gil.
Speaker 6: I don't know how out just that counts, as but
Speaker 6: that one, that one I've come to sort of accept
Speaker 6: over the last couple of weeks. I think that that
Speaker 6: offense is going to be really really good.
Speaker 1: So you you have the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 5: I think Cowboys win the win.
Speaker 1: Wow. Okay, let me ask you reverse because I asked this,
Speaker 1: and I think this has even even more insightful. What
Speaker 1: is the what is the thing or the opinion, the
Speaker 1: shared consensus opinion that you've heard either this offseason or
Speaker 1: even after Week one that you hear and you're still like,
Speaker 1: what the hell are these people talking about? Like I
Speaker 1: just can't get to where they're getting about Team X.
Speaker 5: That's another good one.
Speaker 6: Let's go on that one with the Chargers offense changing
Speaker 6: to this electric, deep downfield passing, explosive unit.
Speaker 5: I know that's what Kellen Moore is saying.
Speaker 6: We saw them do nothing but run the football against
Speaker 6: Miami and I know you can kind of look at
Speaker 6: the geo stuff and say the scheme forces that. I
Speaker 6: get it, but that's a Dolphins defense that's not ready yet.
Speaker 6: And so I think Kellen Moore in his early run
Speaker 6: rates from Dallas have carried over to the Chargers, and
Speaker 6: with Staley as the head coach, as aggressive as he
Speaker 6: might be, there's kind of a want to keep things
Speaker 6: how they looked in week one, and it just might
Speaker 6: be an offense that, because of how defenses play them,
Speaker 6: is going to rely on the run a lot. So
Speaker 6: that would be something that I hear all over that
Speaker 6: I certainly believe during the summer that I'm really sort
Speaker 6: of switching my gears on with that.
Speaker 1: Okay, good answer.
Speaker 4: Can we still call Staley aggressive? Would you still quantify
Speaker 4: him as aggressive? I'm asking this rhetorically at him. I mean,
Speaker 4: he's he was so different year one from here two.
Speaker 6: I think deep down he still is. But this is
Speaker 6: kind of like that Feazic comment I made, where the
Speaker 6: media changes you no matter. We see it all the
Speaker 6: time with coaches, it's really hard to stay at that
Speaker 6: level a sort of pres cater to keeping your job
Speaker 6: and balancing it. So think I think what he was
Speaker 6: to start with all those decisions is who he wants
Speaker 6: to be. I think the media has changed and sort
Speaker 6: of balanced him out and say it's not uncommon with
Speaker 6: coaches that make which.
Speaker 1: Do you agree with what I was saying at the beginning,
Speaker 1: which is though that like he got destroyed by some
Speaker 1: people for all of the you know what was perceived
Speaker 1: as reckless risk taking on fourth downs in year number
Speaker 1: one on it and now doesn't like everybody play like
Speaker 1: he does. Maybe not everybody, but so many do.
Speaker 6: Yeah, And that's like football watching media, and we're we're
Speaker 6: all in that, but we're all kind of nuts when
Speaker 6: it comes to this stuff because something stands out that's
Speaker 6: a little bit different. We get to this like collective
Speaker 6: opinion on how we're supposed to watch football and what
Speaker 6: we should expect to happen, and then it slowly changes,
Speaker 6: but no one ever really acknowledges there's consistently changing into
Speaker 6: something new.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to Yeah, right, And so now.
Speaker 6: There's almost more criticism for coaches that don't go for
Speaker 6: it rather than criticism for coaches that do go for it.
Speaker 5: When they get it wrong.
Speaker 6: And it's shifting now to like a weird difference, and
Speaker 6: so that's kind of where we're at.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we called it.
Speaker 2: That's called the computer dating situation.
Speaker 3: If you remember when computer dating first came out, when
Speaker 3: the Internet came out, and people.
Speaker 2: Were like, oh, what are you crazy?
Speaker 3: You're gonna go on a computer and date somebody on computer?
Speaker 3: And I believe now everyone dates off the computer. So
Speaker 3: it's you know, human beings have this weird thing where
Speaker 3: they think something's crazy until all of a sudden they decide.
Speaker 2: It's not crazy.
Speaker 3: And most people are followers anyways. If you've ever seen
Speaker 3: those experiments where they have like ten people in a
Speaker 3: room and they all say that the one line is
Speaker 3: longer than the other, even though it's clearly not because
Speaker 3: they're all working with the doctor. And then the tenth
Speaker 3: guy comes in and they ask him, and he obviously
Speaker 3: knows it that they're all lying, but he can't bring
Speaker 3: himself to buck the people even though he clearly knows.
Speaker 3: So human beings have this tendency, and you know, gamblers
Speaker 3: are no different, so that doesn't shock me at all.
Speaker 1: That's Todd's favorite experiment that he likes to site. I
Speaker 1: love that. I love that it is so true it's
Speaker 1: such the human mind is so impressionable and so malleable, right,
Speaker 1: It's why it's why cults exist, by the way, the
Speaker 1: sports equivalent or just the thing that popped in my head.
Speaker 1: And I think Will and I have talked about, certainly
Speaker 1: Jason and I have talked about, you know how in
Speaker 1: baseball we realize the analytics community realized, oh, these baseball
Speaker 1: card stats wins losses on a pitcher, it actually doesn't
Speaker 1: control a lot of that, Like it shouldn't be, you know,
Speaker 1: because back in the day, oh my god, this guy's
Speaker 1: win loss record is this, and we thought it was
Speaker 1: so bigger than finally, like Felix won a cy Young
Speaker 1: winning twelve games. I believe it was in twenty ten,
Speaker 1: and so we finally like the pendulum swung. Well now
Speaker 1: it's almost like at the point where we almost undervalue it, right,
Speaker 1: if we do have a picture that wins twenty games,
Speaker 1: it's almost this weird thing where it's like, well, shouldn't
Speaker 1: that actually be a thing in some way because we've
Speaker 1: like completely thought that it means nothing. Well means something, right,
Speaker 1: So it's like I'm just saying, like the group think
Speaker 1: on a lot of this stuff, it's maybe it's dirty analogy,
Speaker 1: but the group think on some of this stuff goes
Speaker 1: way too far. You know. Not everything is one hundred
Speaker 1: percent in zero pcent or black and white as we
Speaker 1: like to say. Uh okay, final question, bizarro world. All
Speaker 1: sixteen games, you have to bet a side in fifteen
Speaker 1: of them, Adam, which is the game you want no
Speaker 1: part of? On the side?
Speaker 5: Seahawks Lions? Gil. I know you like Seattle.
Speaker 6: I feel like in every other year of my existence,
Speaker 6: I would like Seattle.
Speaker 5: Just I worry a.
Speaker 6: Little bit if the league is caught up to Gino
Speaker 6: and this offense is just right.
Speaker 5: Oh, I'm staying away.
Speaker 1: You could be right. I could be very wrong on that, Dad.
Speaker 1: Oh no, let's go will.
Speaker 4: I will go Chiefs Jaguars, I mean Jaguars, thank you,
Speaker 4: thank Yould, Andy Reid with extra time to repair, looking
Speaker 4: avoid oh and two, you can make a case for
Speaker 4: the Chiefs, But I'm just I'm not looking away three
Speaker 4: and a half on the road with that team against
Speaker 4: the Jags. So that's a that's a pretty easy pass
Speaker 4: for me.
Speaker 3: God, I don't want any part of the Packers. Jordan
Speaker 3: Love proved me wrong last week. I'm not I'm still
Speaker 3: not sold on the guy. The Falcons are going to
Speaker 3: be three yards in a cloud of dust, John Fox Football.
Speaker 3: Let the other team beat itself and we'll we'll get
Speaker 3: wins and I'll take the Yank He's team total under today.
Speaker 2: I don't know if anybody.
Speaker 3: Has seen who they're trouting out there, but the lineup
Speaker 3: would be better if me and Gil and Will were
Speaker 3: hitting two, three, four?
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? This is Will Hill's favorite thing
Speaker 1: in the world is looking at the Yankees lineup every days.
Speaker 1: It's his big it's his monogram, it's his calling card.
Speaker 2: Wh what Will I.
Speaker 5: Dude?
Speaker 3: The Yankees are having Florrial as well's Volpie Bowers, Praza, Cabrera, Perera. Uh.
Speaker 2: And that's Mike Perera, the NFL guy on Fox.
Speaker 3: And he's going to be hitting nine Yankees tonight. So
Speaker 3: this game goes off in twenty minutes. You know what
Speaker 3: if I lose, I lose Yankees team total under. I'm sorry,
Speaker 3: that's not a major league.
Speaker 1: Lineup, first five or full game? Todd, what are you
Speaker 1: doing for anybody who catches this early enough? Would you say,
Speaker 1: are you doing full game or first five on the
Speaker 1: team total?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 2: I'm doing both. I can't believe this lineup.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, mine is actually the Dolphins game the Dolphins
Speaker 1: Patriots game, just because of what I said earlier, which
Speaker 1: is I don't know what's real and what's not, Like
Speaker 1: are the is the Patriots defense really all that good?
Speaker 1: Or was that just because they played an Eagles team
Speaker 1: that played nobody in the preseason or are they who
Speaker 1: a lot of us thought they were just not that
Speaker 1: not very good? And the same thing applies to the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: like that defense was so bad and yet they showed
Speaker 1: up the last drive obviously, And is that offense really
Speaker 1: that good? Can it be that good week after week?
Speaker 1: I should I should mention that I bet I bet
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill MVP seventy five to one yesterday. It's my
Speaker 1: Louis Arias try to hit four hundred bet in baseball.
Speaker 1: Didn't happen, by the way, it's three forty nine. But
Speaker 1: the theory being that if Louis Ariya has hit four hundred,
Speaker 1: which would be the first time since nineteen forty one,
Speaker 1: obviously a hallowed record, that they'd have to vote an MVP. Obviously,
Speaker 1: this is not as hallowed a record. In football stats,
Speaker 1: aren't as hallowed in football as they are in baseball.
Speaker 1: But if he gets two thousand yard receiving this whole
Speaker 1: nonsense that the NFL MVP only goes to quarterbacks, which
Speaker 1: has been the case the last four years, Like, I
Speaker 1: think a lot of voters would have to be like, oh,
Speaker 1: this has never happened before, we got to vote for
Speaker 1: this guy for MVP. So anyway, I feel great about
Speaker 1: the Dolphins offense. But on the other hand, I don't know.
Speaker 1: Maybe that was just one game aberrational. So that's the
Speaker 1: game I want no part of. Really, I can tell
Speaker 1: you're all very moved by that. Ok.
Speaker 4: I would just very quickly say, I mean we both
Speaker 4: talked to Aaron Shott before and he's been very clear, Hey,
Speaker 4: I can never really never see myself voting for a
Speaker 4: non quarterback ever. Again.
Speaker 1: He could never see himself, oh, right, because of his
Speaker 1: analytics viewpoint. He can't do it because the quarterback is
Speaker 1: so much more valuable. Right. He texted me yesterday with
Speaker 1: with very harrowing whereds. He says, I just want to
Speaker 1: break this to you personally football outsiders, which swear he
Speaker 1: used to work, but he's still he's at FTN now
Speaker 1: and he's still he's the owner of the DVOA proprietary
Speaker 1: DVOA stat because that's his he created it. The ninety
Speaker 1: one Washington Redskins were always the greatest team of all time.
Speaker 1: So he says, I have good news and bad news.
Speaker 1: I refined the analysis. He says, now the two thousand
Speaker 1: and seven Patriots are actually rated higher than the nineteen
Speaker 1: ninety one Redskins. The good news who the nineteen ninety
Speaker 1: one Skins.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, who's the other team.
Speaker 1: To the two thousand and seven Patriots who were undefeated
Speaker 1: till they lost in the Super Bowl. But he said,
Speaker 1: the good news is I haven't evaluated the playoffs the
Speaker 1: postseason yet. He believes that ninety one Skins will go
Speaker 1: ahead of the Patriots again once he evaluates the postseason.
Speaker 1: So anyway, that's the updates. Since you bring up, Aaron
Speaker 1: Shotts will be a guest on this show later this
Speaker 1: month on the megapod, so look forward to that. Again.
Speaker 1: My apologies last apology about the the audio problems. Will
Speaker 1: work that out. Adam Chernoff from Right Angle Sports. Adam
Speaker 1: always appreciated man, Thank you so much for making the time.
Speaker 5: Thanks very much guys. Always great to be here.
Speaker 1: God wish Nev from his mom's dining room today. And
Speaker 1: Will Hill, who's on the bear Bets podcast. When did
Speaker 1: the bear Bets podcast come out? Will?
Speaker 4: Thursday? The college ones that should be coming out by
Speaker 4: the time you listen to this, that should be out,
Speaker 4: and then tomorrow morning is the NFL ones to look
Speaker 4: for those, And yeah, this was fun. I'm in with
Speaker 4: Toddy Yankees first five team total. I can't find better
Speaker 4: than minus one fifty five, but I'm gonna roll with it.
Speaker 1: Here under first five and Todd's doing both first five
Speaker 1: the full game. Thank you all for listening. Good luck
Speaker 1: with your week two bets in the National Football League.