WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2023 Week 2 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:09.400 To check it down man to Thursday morning, September fourteenth, 0:00:09.480 --> 0:00:12.240 twenty twenty three. It is the Beating the Book Podcast 0:00:12.480 --> 0:00:16.280 Mega pod for a Wig number two and then National 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:19.279 Football League Gil Alexander. I hope you're week one went 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.640 well betting wise as always on the heels by the 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:25.840 way of just a great appearance by Fessick last week, 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:30.120 and thank you everybody who downloaded that podcast. Just tremendous 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:33.200 numbers on the PSI pod episode and he was great. 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:36.200 We talked about all kinds of hypothetical NFL stuff. Hope 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:39.839 everybody enjoyed that. I'll throw one in here just to 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:44.200 riff as drift from that here momentarily. But first please 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:47.840 are staples of the show from usually his mom's cork 0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:50.640 Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, but today he has upgraded to 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:54.959 the dining room. It's Todd wish them. How you doing, totty? Well, 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:57.320 not a good start. 0:00:57.840 --> 0:00:58.480 You can't hear me. 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:00.920 Now we can hear you. Go ahead on, Gilly, how 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:01.520 you doing man? 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:03.760 Good to hear my screen. 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:07.399 Is freezing like Adam is frozen and Will is moving 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:09.800 and you're and you're sort of frozen. 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:12.399 Okay, Well we hear you fine. Let me say hello 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.160 to Will Hill, also at Not the Will Hill. He's 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.920 on the Bear Bets podcast both college and pro with 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:20.280 the Bear Chris Faliga. Willie, what's happening? 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:22.760 Boys? What's going on? 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:26.200 Do people call you will Willie or Wilson? What's the 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:27.200 what's the way they go with that? 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:29.679 Willie's kind of a little bit of a playful nickname. 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:31.640 I don't get a lot of Wilson, but uh yeah, 0:01:31.840 --> 0:01:34.399 look if you want to start calling me Willy, I'm 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:36.360 okay with that. Sounds funny, Okay. 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:39.080 We apologize for the audio here at the very outset 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:41.720 of the show. We hope that it holds. Our rotating 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:45.520 guest this week is one of our favorites. We always 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:47.319 have him back for the postseason as well, and he's 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:50.680 kind enough to join us for week number two. He 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:53.720 is from Right Angle Sports. I don't know what else 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.960 he's doing. He'll share with us. It's Adam Chernoff. Everybody, 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:59.760 how you doing, Adam good? 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:03.040 I think I started the show a couple of years ago, like. 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.400 Week sixteen or seventeen, with all the guests that are 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:08.720 usually on or tired, and so now I've made it 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:11.600 up to week two and you know we're not up 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:13.120 here a little bit, so good to be back with 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:13.520 you guys. 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:15.880 Well, I had to finesse a you know, a different 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:19.160 media conflict and then we found your spot here on 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:22.000 the podcast itself. What else, by the way, besides Right 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:24.360 Angle Sports, Like, what are all the different things you're doing? 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:26.160 Because you're into a mess of stuff. 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:30.160 Massive stuff as always, but the big focus is the 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:32.839 football service with Right Angle Sports, so that's the big one. 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:35.399 And then we have the daily podcast, the Simple Handicap 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:38.280 in year number six now, and then we're doing a 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:40.760 whole bunch of video stuff all over the place. So 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.200 if you're following the accounts of Right Angle Sports, you'll 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:45.519 get everything that's coming out. 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:48.480 Sweet all right, And of course Adam Chernoff c h E. 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:51.320 R n Off is your Twitter. Everybody can find out 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:55.160 everything you're doing there. Adam, who is are you responsible 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:57.760 for any of these line moves that just happened in 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:00.760 the NFL market that just occurred in the last hour? 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:05.080 Nothing within the last hour. This has all been injury 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:07.200 stuff for the most part. So we did a lot 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.360 on Tuesday earlier this week and then might still have 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:11.600 a few things to come yet. 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:15.120 Okay, Todd is the court stenographer over the megapod. Todd, 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:16.440 how did we all do last week? 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.200 Gilly and Will? 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:25.120 We're both two and one outstanding weeks. Gill only missed 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.680 with the Pictsburg Stullers and Will only missed with the 0:03:28.880 --> 0:03:33.000 Washington Guardians or Commanders or whatever their name is. 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:34.639 As two and. 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.560 One, I went one one in one, as did Fezick. 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.800 We pushed the Pats and I lost the Bears and 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:44.960 won the under in Dallas, and he also Beckers and Steelers. 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:46.960 So one one one for me and the guests and 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:48.760 two and one for you guys. We all lost the 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:50.640 teasers because we all. 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:52.520 Fell for the Yenzer factor. 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.040 If Yen's are gonna hype us up all summer and 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:59.400 that you're gonna have a problem when you go against 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:02.880 Super Bowl contenders in that. 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:03.120 That's what happened. 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:07.840 That is exactly what happened. Before we get into thoughts 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.040 on Thursday Night football, and if there are any bets here, 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:12.280 I just wanted because we talked so much about this 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:16.040 with Fesik last week in terms of like optimal situations 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:18.920 and what teams ought to be doing or what may 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:21.240 develop as the years go on. In the NFL in 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:24.920 certain situations. That was sort of a conversation that ripped off, 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:27.640 you know, going from fourteen point deficit to eight, and 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:30.360 how people should be taking the two at that point. 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:34.520 Then we got into other kinds of crazier situations. Something 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:36.719 happened in that Kansas City Detroit game. I brought it 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:38.440 up on a Numbers game. Obviously it was a big 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:40.640 Twitter thing as well. Joe Pte and I were talking 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:43.359 about it, but something fell into our lap right after 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:46.400 we recorded the megapod, which is that fourth and twenty 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:49.359 five that the Chiefs had, which started out as a 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:51.440 fourth and twenty but then they false started. This is 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:53.279 late in the game. I want to say. There was 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:55.720 two ZHO nine left on the clock, There was still 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:58.240 the two minute warning, there was still their full allotment 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:01.279 of timeouts. They were down one point twenty one to 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:05.360 twenty and we were discussing how the optimal play at 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:10.159 that point would have been for Patrick Mahomes to sprint 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:13.359 back to the nine yard line, let's say, and go 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:17.240 out of bounds north of the two minute warning, forcing 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:21.000 Detroit's hand. In essence, at that point, they couldn't get 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.480 a first down to beat you, which is what happened 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:25.839 after the Chiefs failed to convert on the fourth and 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:29.320 twenty five. And I guess my question is, and I 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:31.200 hope people understand what I mean by that, so Detroit 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:33.039 would have been forced to either kick a field goal 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:35.880 or score the touchdown. The thing that could have torpedoed 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:37.479 that is if they had gone for two I suppose 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:39.360 after the touchdown, but let's just throw that to the 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:41.719 side for a second. I guess my question to you, Adam, 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:43.760 and I'll start with you, is do you think a 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:46.640 team in the NFL will ever get there? Because this 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:48.240 was the perfect situation for that. 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:52.240 I saw that no really intrigued by the comment because 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:54.839 it was so original. I hadn't seen that really said before. 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:57.520 But I feel like it's the defensive link thing that 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:00.720 we talk about always being the optimal play and how 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:02.840 every team should do it, and no team ever does it. 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:04.680 I don't know if we ever see that happen, but 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:07.560 I feel like we talk about it every single week 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:10.839 in some scenario, especially later in the season. So once 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:14.360 the defensive holding starts happening at the end of games 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.520 to run out the clock, I'll be a believer that 0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:18.480 we'll see a quarterback go out at the ninth. 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:20.960 End of games and end up halves too, right where 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:25.080 you can just defensive hold your way into the you know, 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:27.520 one untimed down I guess sort of thing is what 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:28.360 you're talking about. 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:30.200 Is that exactly? 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.719 Yeah, and then it puts the offense in the position 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:34.640 where they have no time and they can't score anymore. 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:37.960 So once that happens, I'll be a believer. We'll see 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:40.000 a quarterback go out at the nine, because really, this 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:43.480 could happen no matter. It doesn't have to be fourth 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:45.880 and twenty five. It can be fourth in whatever it 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:48.120 would be the play to make in any circumstances. 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:50.560 So now that it's out there, let's see what happened. 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:52.080 Yeah, it doesn't have to be fourth and twenty five, 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:54.280 you're right, but fourth and twenty five made it so 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:57.600 right there in front of us obvious, right, it's like, oh, 0:06:57.640 --> 0:06:59.720 you guys are still going for it even after the 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:02.920 fall start. And by the way, Patrick Mahomes, because he's 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:05.560 so great, almost almost converted, but it banged off, I 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:08.000 want to say, justin Watson's hands on the fourth and 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:08.479 twenty five. 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:12.160 So the question is where and where on the field 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:15.720 does this become no longer the optimal play, Like if 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:19.200 it's fourth and pick a number, but you're at the 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.680 forty eight yard line right of your on your own 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:24.600 side of the field, are you still going back to? 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:25.960 Like where's the cutoff? 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:27.840 Is what I would be curious to know, because there's 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.280 probably a point in the yard line with it down 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.400 and distance where it no longer becomes optimal. But in 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.960 that circumstance it certainly seemed obvious, but there's probably it 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:40.240 even gets more ridiculous where it becomes the play to 0:07:40.280 --> 0:07:42.640 make rather than maybe going for that fourth down. 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:44.680 Yeah, no, totally agree. And that was and I just 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:46.600 want to get it right because that was fourth and 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:49.280 twenty five at the. 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:51.520 Where were they they were like the thirty five ish. 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:54.160 I'm gonna tell you right now. Fourth they were twenty 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:58.400 fourth and twenty five at their own thirty with two 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:01.960 oh nine left would have been a twenty one yard loss. 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:05.760 So yeah, everything was so perfect in that situation, the distance, 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.280 the place on the field. Now, of course, you know 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:11.240 the other response to this I mentioned one one way 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:12.720 to torpedo wit was then yeah, but then one if 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:14.840 Detroit scores and then gets a two point conversion, the 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:21.920 whole thing, you know, backfires, you know, Detroit, Detroit, could 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.360 you know, conceivably then take the next play if there's 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:27.720 too little time. You know, someone was saying, oh, what 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:30.080 if Detroit then just runs up and down the field 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:31.920 and tries to knock out time like as a whole 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:34.920 there's you know, it can get really really ridiculous. But anyway, 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:37.959 I think it's a fascinating scenario. No need to belabor 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:40.600 it anymore. We'll just see if teams start to develop 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:42.400 this thing. And this is all discussion because last week 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:45.160 Fezik and Todd were like, oh, eighty percent of teams 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:47.120 when they when they're down fourteen, they know when they 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:48.679 get to eight to go for two. And I was like, 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:50.440 there's no way it's a will and I were both like, 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.560 there's no way it's eighty percent. And so anyway, just 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:57.080 fascinating football situations where I think Baseball has sort of 0:08:57.120 --> 0:09:00.400 figured out stuff analytically. Football hasn't quite like in a 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:03.719 chess game, where there's always an optimal play, Football has 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:06.240 not figured out optimal plays at optimal times. It was 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:07.040 the whole point of all of that. 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:11.680 Anyway, could you imagine feasick if he ends up in 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:15.280 some wild reality getting a coaching job, and implements all 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:18.160 of this the Monday morning press conference after where he 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:20.880 has to atone to the media. I mean, it would 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:23.360 be an all time sports moment if that ever happened. 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:25.880 That is such a great call. How funny that would 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:29.400 be every Monday. I can't wait for Fessic's most game presser. 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:33.360 That would be so great. Oh man, Steve's such a 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:36.240 nice guy. It's so great that he his mind works 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:39.680 this way. Okay, Thursday Night Football, Todd, you will tell 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:43.440 me if I'm all format right? Thursday Night Football? Oh 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:46.160 and Survivor? Who we all got through on Survivor? 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:49.840 Yes, Ravens, I got through, Yeah, I. 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:51.839 Got I mean I have multiple entries, so four of 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:54.439 the five got through. I actually lost on Denver one 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:56.559 of my entries. I wanted to go frisky and Denver 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.600 didn't get there. But I had Baltimore, I had Washington, Washington. 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:01.040 Quick, I had Washington. 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:04.840 Yeah, Washington, we barely got there. What do you say, Todd? 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:07.160 Can we do a quick in game talk? 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:09.600 Yes? If you have something for sure? Yeah? What do 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:09.880 you got? 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:13.040 Yeah? I think something to look at. Some of the 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:13.760 books have. 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:20.480 Team totals for third quarters at halftime. And that's really 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:25.880 interesting because you know, the first quarters and third quarters 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:30.680 play very similarly. Obviously third quarters are a little higher scoring, 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:33.199 but still they play similarly in the in the sense 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:37.320 that you know, you long first drives, and the scoring 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:39.600 is obviously much higher in the second and fourth quarters. 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:41.839 So you'll see in NFL games nine and a half, 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:44.880 seven and a half that's for both teams. But now 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:48.160 they're putting up tease for third quarters sometimes and if 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.439 you know who's getting the ball first, which you obviously do, 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:54.680 that can be I think there's there's something to do there. 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.679 And they even keep them up live often, so if 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:00.520 you see a team you know that really struggle to 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:02.760 move the ball in the first half, the other team, 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:04.959 you know, is getting the ball to start the second half. 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.360 I did this with the Bears last weekend. Actually lost, 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:10.960 but it was like their only touchdown to the game. 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:12.560 I think it was just kind of unlucky. 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:14.920 But the Bears were three and a half team total 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:17.760 in the third quarter and they really couldn't move the 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.080 ball at all, and the chances, I mean, they couldn't 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:23.280 score touchdown, that's for darn sure. And they weren't getting 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:25.080 the ball first. The Packers were getting the ball first. 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:26.520 So now if the Packers go down and you have 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:29.120 a four or five minute drive, now you basically the 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:31.480 Bears get one shot at getting a touchdown, because if 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:33.720 they don't get a touchdown, the Packers now get the 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.800 ball with say sub six minutes to go, and even 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:39.760 if they go two or three minutes, there's not enough 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:41.760 time for the Bears to come back and get a touchdown. 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:43.720 A lot of these touchdown drives are a lot longer 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.520 than three or four minutes, So I think there's you 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:49.680 want to keep an eye on these third quarter team totals, 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:52.720 not just third quarter totals in general, because I think 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:54.800 if you can get a feel for who can move 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:56.839 the ball and who can't, you know, a lot of 0:11:56.880 --> 0:11:59.760 the garbage time touchdowns, a lot of the touchdowns from 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:02.040 team that can't move the ball happen in garbage time. 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:04.280 They don't happen in the third quarter typically, although it 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:07.320 did happen with the Bears. So oftentimes you'll see a 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:09.360 team they can't move the ball the entire three quarters 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:10.559 of the game, all of a sudden the fourth quarter 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.200 they get a touchdown. But you don't have to worry 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.040 about in the third quarter. So I think you want 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:15.400 to keep an eye I know that's kind of just 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:17.800 a general thing, but you want to keep an eye 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:20.360 on these teams that are not moving the ball at all, 0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:22.959 and there's no reason to think they can. They're not 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.360 getting the ball to start the third quarter, and they're 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:26.880 going to get you over a field goal. 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:29.280 I think there's gonna be some opportunity. 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:30.800 Yeah, it's a nice riff off of what you were 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:33.840 saying last week about totals in general into the third 0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:35.439 at the end of the third quarter. But this is 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:37.679 team totals at the end of the third quarter. What 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:41.679 percentage of books would you say, Todd actually offer this, 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:43.600 because it's not all of them. 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:47.400 There's probably twenty to twenty five percent have them. 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:49.280 Okay, sounds about right to me. 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:52.160 Maybe least maybe twenty percent. Yeah, I can think of 0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:53.600 two already that usually have it. 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:55.440 What are they tell them? 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.640 I know, I know Rivers has it for sure. That's 0:12:58.679 --> 0:12:59.880 one that definitely has it. 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.680 Yeah, Because like I don't think I'm trying to think 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:07.560 like just an offshore like Bookmaker does not. For instance, 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:13.000 I don't think Caesar's does Caesar's doesn't. 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:17.480 Do they No, sometimes they do have that kind of. 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:19.680 Sometimes they do. Okay, all right, maybe I just haven't 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:23.760 seen it. Okay, always a good one. By the way, again, 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.720 the audio on Todd and on will I apologize for 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:29.320 this is our our new spot here at the d 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:33.400 at Bar Canada, and they're working through everything, so I apologize. 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:34.839 You've got most of the drift of what Todd was 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:38.839 saying though, But if this persists, trust me, I will 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.280 make sure we do this from somewhere else moving forward. 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:43.960 But hopefully we get slog through this Thursday Night football. 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.360 We're about to do our best bets sider totals our 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:50.120 favorite three bets. Does anything from tonight's game qualify as 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.440 one of your three top bets? Do you have any 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:53.320 thoughts on this? Adam? 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:58.400 I really like the over in this spot tonight a 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.440 couple of reasons. I think the Eagles defense is going 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:03.480 to take a big step back as we progressed throughout 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:06.800 the season, lost some key pieces in the offseason, but 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.559 also last week they lose to Kobe Dean, who was 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:12.320 their green dot in the middle. The green dot got 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:14.280 passed over to Read Blankenship. 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:15.760 He's going to miss as well. 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.840 He was their leading tackler, and they lost another corner 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:22.080 as well, and now you have Fletcher Cox who's hurt 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:25.440 as well. So here these two teams played the total 0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:27.640 close forty nine and a half. I think we had 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.920 the Eagles with a worse defense. We have the Vikings offense, 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.120 which is just full on chase mode. With Kevin O'Connell, 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:36.720 I think they're going to be a team to look 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:38.480 at when you need a partner for the over all 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:42.920 season long. The Vikings defense is cleelanked with Floores, It's 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:46.320 completely boom or bust, and so I think both teams 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:49.720 move it pretty comfortably. Seeing forty nine or forty nine 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.320 and a half, I think both numbers good. 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:51.680 To go over. 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:55.840 Yeah, the injuries on both sides there Fletcher Cox questionable, 0:14:55.880 --> 0:15:00.560 the Kobe Dean out, James Bradbury out, the cornerback safety 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:03.480 read Blanket Ship out. And then on the Vikings side 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:06.960 of the offense, Christian darrisaw questionable. That'd be huge. Garrett Bradbury, 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:10.120 They're a center is out obviously, a Marcus Davenport questionable. 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.600 On the defensive side, a defense that by the way, 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.120 generated a twenty three percent pass pressure rate on Baker 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:21.000 Mayfield despite blitzing at the highest rates. So a lot 0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:22.520 of that when you put it all on the wash 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.080 could very well point to an over for sure. Will 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:25.960 any thoughts on this. 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.400 Yeah, I echo those sentiments in terms of the over 0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:32.240 ey thing with Floras, in terms of like the blitzing 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.520 where it's it's like Adam said, boom er bust, where 0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:35.960 it's not going to be four or five yards at 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:37.920 the time. It's gonna be big chunks, it's gonna be 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:41.320 big plays. So I would definitely look at an over 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.280 in Minnesota. You know Minnesota. You look at the scoreboard. 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:45.960 They only put up seventeen points, but they moved the 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:47.880 ball up the field. They were I think six yards 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.520 were quite maybe a little over. They just shot themselves 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:52.800 in the foot when they got close. So I would 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:54.400 take the points and I look at it over. I 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.520 agree with that that you know, Feeld not that good 0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:58.760 on defense. And it goes back to last year. I 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:01.400 mean all the good quarterbacks they played really tore Mahomes 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:04.000 in the Super Bowl, Rogers on that something night, even golf, 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:05.560 and the rest of the quarterbacks, it's a lot of 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:07.680 Daniel Jones. There was a lot of weaker quarter backs 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:11.800 that they feasted on, so Vikings and the over stronger 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:12.520 on the over. 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.440 Eagles down to a six point favorite total right now 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:19.480 at forty nine. Todd, anything from you here, I'm. 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:21.480 Not using it as my pick, but I kind of 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:23.680 like the Eagles team total. I don't know if you 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.240 guys do this, but if you like it, over into 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:29.120 their game, but you also have more confidence in one 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:32.480 of the teams going over, do you think, hey, maybe 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:34.680 I'll just play this as a team total over. Like 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.160 for instance, last week, I thought the Giants weren't going 0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:39.480 to move the ball at all, and instead of playing 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:40.960 the under in the game, I just played the team 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:43.960 total Giants under twenty and a half, and I feel 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.360 like I give myself even a little bit better chance. 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:48.880 For instance, in this game, if I had to play something, 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:51.480 I'd probably play the Eagles over seven and a half 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:54.400 because I just don't think the Vikings have a great defense, 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.680 and after that Eagles kind of disappointment on offense. I 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:00.240 think they'll be on all cylinders tonight at home. I 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:01.760 don't know do you guys do that at all? Look 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:03.560 at the team totals as opposed to the just the 0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:04.359 regular total. 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:08.920 I do a lot in baseball, I do a lot 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:10.800 in Detroit was a team I did it with last year, 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:12.919 So yeah, I agree, it's a good It's a good 0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:13.480 way to get at. 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.280 Your handicap better, Adam Will or Will was that a 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:17.960 best bet for you? The over? Or is that not 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:19.240 one of your top three? No? 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:24.040 No, Adam, Yeah, I'm coming ready to fire, so we 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:25.600 can put it in or we can still do the 0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:27.000 full three. 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.640 We'll go to you and we see opinion this week. Bill, 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:30.320 All right, we'll. 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:31.520 See what comes out of your mouth. Then if that 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.439 ends up being one of your top three. Let us 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:37.000 start with the best bets of week number two. Your 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:38.760 week one was good at him? By the way, betting wise, 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:39.119 did it go. 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:43.720 Well for you? The Steelers put a damper? 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:47.040 Yeah, a lot of things so first half in full 0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.480 game there were kind of a killer. Other than that, 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:52.480 it was it was okay, but the Steelers really put 0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:53.320 us in a bad spot. 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:56.480 All right, what's your number one play at them for 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:57.280 this week? Week two? 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:03.840