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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan run. All right, here we go,

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Speaker 1: prop growing a job.

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Speaker 2: We're sitting up to cash to stop.

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Speaker 1: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 2: like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 1: You want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco forty nine ers, super Bowl

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Speaker 1: fifty four. How should you bet the spread over under

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Speaker 1: on the total? Which props offer the most value? We're

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Speaker 1: talking about it all. Every bet that you can make

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Speaker 1: to profit in Super Bowl fifty four. We are going

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Speaker 1: to break it down. Welcome to the award winning Action

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Speaker 1: Network Podcast. I am your host, Chris Raybon, and this

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Speaker 1: is our Super Bowl fifty four betting spectacular. And before

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Speaker 1: we get into it, just a reminder go download the

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Speaker 1: also award winning and free Action Network app for real

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Speaker 1: time odds, box scores and the capability to track every

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Speaker 1: bet that you make. And now, for the last time

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Speaker 1: this season, let's hear that Sunday six Pack theme song

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Speaker 1: Thursday for Action Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack boom, Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's get into it. As always, I'm joined by the

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation. My guy is Stucky, And

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Speaker 1: on top of that, we're really coming at you with

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Speaker 1: the heavy hitters today because we got a special guest,

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Speaker 1: goes by the nickname the Odds Maker, our guy Sean

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Speaker 1: Corner from the Action Network Director of predictive Analytics, Sean

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Speaker 1: glad to have you on the show.

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Speaker 2: What's up?

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Speaker 3: Brother?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Well, what's up?

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Speaker 1: Man?

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Speaker 3: Really stuck to be on with Stucky too. I think

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Speaker 3: this was our first pod together, so something to celebrate

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Speaker 3: my opinion, that was an award winning intro.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Rayon, Well, thank you.

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Speaker 3: Nah.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to talk to both of you guys. You know,

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Speaker 1: I've done pretty well at Betton since I joined the

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Speaker 1: Action Network because I talked to you foods for a

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Speaker 1: couple hours each week on these podcasts and outside. So

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Speaker 1: excited to get into it. Stuck, how's it going, what's up?

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Speaker 1: How you feeling?

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Speaker 2: I just scriding through super Bowl stuff. Man, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot to get through out. I would tweet it out

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Speaker 2: last night that there's so many there's too many Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl props this point as far as not players like

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Speaker 2: Kansas City wins and a Mail becomes president or I'm

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Speaker 2: just like, why are you tying up your money for

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Speaker 2: that long? Like you gotta sweat Kansas City winning and

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Speaker 2: then you gotta wait until the election. I hope a

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Speaker 2: Mail win, Like, oh my god, I mean.

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Speaker 1: We know we know which way Bernie Sanders is betting

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Speaker 1: on that one. But let's get into it. For those unfamiliar,

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Speaker 1: we start with the Sunday six pack where we talk

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Speaker 1: spreads and totals, and then we're going to jump into

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Speaker 1: a huge segment where we just go through all the

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Speaker 1: different props that we like. Sean is a specialist at props.

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Speaker 1: He sets odds for basically all these things, so we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get his insights and Stucky and I will chime

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Speaker 1: in with the props that we think offer the best value.

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Speaker 1: But we're gonna start it off talking the spread, talking

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Speaker 1: to total, how we think this one's gonna play out. Stuck,

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Speaker 1: I'll kick it to you first and let me just

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Speaker 1: set it up. The Kansas City Chiefs at most books

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Speaker 1: are favored by either one point or one and a

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Speaker 1: half points the total at the game. The consensus total

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Speaker 1: is fifty four and a half. As far as where

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Speaker 1: the money is, we're seeing fifty six percent of the

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Speaker 1: money is on the Kansas City Chiefs, but fifty nine

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Speaker 1: percent of the bets, so niners slightly bigger bets coming

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Speaker 1: in on their side, and the total the action has

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Speaker 1: been extremely one side eighty percent of the bets, eighty

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Speaker 1: six percent of the money currently as we record this

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday night on the over stuck, how you feeling.

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Speaker 2: We're going to get to first quarter? For I think

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Speaker 2: where I think there's an opportunity to potentially live as

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Speaker 2: far as a pregame, right, I mean I don't see

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Speaker 2: much value. I mean I make the line minus one

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Speaker 2: and a half. I do think that the total is

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Speaker 2: a little inflated. I made it around fifty one and

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Speaker 2: a half fifty two, So going from fifty two to

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Speaker 2: fifty four and a half in a game that I

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Speaker 2: don't really want to bet the under end and we'll

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Speaker 2: get into various reasons why. But if it crosses that

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Speaker 2: fifty five threshold, which is obviously a key number, I'll

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Speaker 2: probably get involved in the under. Pregame, Look, everyone's betting

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Speaker 2: the over. Everyone's most recreational betters are going to bet

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Speaker 2: the over. The Super Bowl total almost every year is

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Speaker 2: always inflated. There's always going to be a point or

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Speaker 2: two of value just because of that. On the under.

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Speaker 2: It's the one game of the year really where the

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Speaker 2: public is going to drive a lot of the market

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Speaker 2: because there's just so much money. Your uncle, your aunt,

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Speaker 2: your dentis, everyone is betting this game.

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Speaker 1: That's an important point to point out. As far as

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Speaker 1: the size, Like when you're under three, you know these numbers.

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Speaker 1: You know the difference between a one and a two

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Speaker 1: and a half. The number of books really don't want

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Speaker 1: to have to move on to or off of in

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Speaker 1: this situation is going to be three. So I don't

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Speaker 1: think this line will hit three. But John, what about you?

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Speaker 1: I know you do your power ratings and you project

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Speaker 1: the line for pretty much every game all year long.

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Speaker 1: Where do you have this the numbers for this game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So we were doing some previews of like possible

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl matchups with the spread would be and stuff

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Speaker 3: like that, and I was updating those pieces during the

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Speaker 3: championship games. Yeah, I had Casey pretty much minus one

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Speaker 3: mice one and a half for this, So when it

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Speaker 3: came out it was right in line with what I had,

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Speaker 3: so no bet for me there, but I was just

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Speaker 3: more of a personal sid I was going through my

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Speaker 3: outstanding future bets and I found I have a forty

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Speaker 3: nine ers thirty to one ticket. I will ad met

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Speaker 3: I had a pretty funny one it was Adam Gase

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Speaker 3: a Coach of the Year for fifty to one. But

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Speaker 3: I did find a fourt nitres thirty to one ticket,

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Speaker 3: so I might be hedging my bet. So the fact

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Speaker 3: that Casey pretty much a pick them, that's going to

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Speaker 3: give me a pretty good hedge opportunity here. So I'll

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Speaker 3: probably just bet on the facing money line just because

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to hitch my thirty to one ticket.

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Speaker 1: So I actually have this game as a pick them,

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Speaker 1: and I think mine line is a little different. And

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Speaker 1: this has been kind of the case with me in

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Speaker 1: projecting San Francisco throughout the playoffs. Really, but I think

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Speaker 1: that a lot of I think models I'm seeing are

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Speaker 1: probably incorporating the data from weeks fourteen through seventeen pretty

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Speaker 1: significantly because it is still recent data. But the thing

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Speaker 1: about those last that final quarter of the regular season

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Speaker 1: was San Francisco was without safety Juquiski Tart they were

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Speaker 1: without linebacker Kwan Alexander and then d Ford, one of

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Speaker 1: their top pass rushers. He was he only played up sparingly,

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Speaker 1: was struggling through a hamstring issue in those games. And

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Speaker 1: you also had Richard Sherman sit out a game in

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Speaker 1: there as well. So if you kind of look at

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Speaker 1: the performance of their defense in games where those three

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Speaker 1: guys were healthy, it is substantially improved. And that's even

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Speaker 1: if you look at things like you know, Damn versus

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Speaker 1: the spread or them versus some of their player, you know,

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Speaker 1: the player props for yardage and touchdowns and whatnot. That

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Speaker 1: defense was significantly improved with those three guys in the lineup.

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Speaker 1: So I think that is what really accounts for the

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Speaker 1: difference where which is why I have it at a

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Speaker 1: pick them in this case, I do have the total

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Speaker 1: at fifty three. I think this is the kind of

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Speaker 1: game where, you know, Kyle Shanahan's a pretty aggressive coach

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Speaker 1: and the Niners have had a lot of success running

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Speaker 1: the football, but they are also a very good passing team.

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Speaker 1: Like if you look at you know, Jimmy Garoppolo, he

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Speaker 1: was near the top of the league in most passing

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Speaker 1: metrics yards per attempt touchdown percent and all that, so

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Speaker 1: you'd see a little more offense in this game. Then

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Speaker 1: we've seen out of most Niners games where they're able

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Speaker 1: to just shut the opponent down. So I have it

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Speaker 1: as a straight up toss up. That's why I when

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Speaker 1: the lines first dropped, I took it San Francisco plus

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Speaker 1: one and a half. I wasn't sure exactly how it

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Speaker 1: would move. It did move to one at a bunch

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Speaker 1: of books, but it looks like I'm with the majority

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Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the public money coming in on

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs that that is kind of settled in at

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Speaker 1: one and a half at most books.

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Speaker 2: You could be more correct to me. And it's something

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Speaker 2: I struggle with because the Sanford defense was absolutely elite

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Speaker 2: Hall of Fame level just all over the field early

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Speaker 2: in the season, but they weren't really playing anyone, right,

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Speaker 2: Like if you look at the quarterbacks they play, and

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Speaker 2: then they dealt with all those injuries and then you know,

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Speaker 2: they got healthier for the playoffs and then they looked

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Speaker 2: really good again. Right, So I think I might be

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Speaker 2: undervalue that defense. And then there's an article out on

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Speaker 2: Action Network that I put together today looking at the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs defense, because there's a huge narrative out there that

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs defense is significantly improved since the buy right.

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Speaker 2: They allowed fifteen and a half points after the buye

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Speaker 2: per game, about twenty three and a half prior to

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Speaker 2: the bye eleven weeks prior to that. If you look

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Speaker 2: at success rates, explosive rates everywhere across the board, their

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Speaker 2: defense is significantly improved. So I dug a little deeper,

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Speaker 2: and you know, you could check out the article I go.

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Speaker 2: I rambled forever about it.

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Speaker 4: Although there is a general requirement of brevity, most people

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Speaker 4: think that we are being briefer than we are, and

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Speaker 4: these people are in favor of brevity as long as

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Speaker 4: it is someone else's.

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Speaker 2: But basically, what I found is that I think a

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Speaker 2: lot of it had to do with the circumstance. Ready

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Speaker 2: after the bye, they play home against the Raiders in

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Speaker 2: thirty mile an hour wins. They play at New England Outdoors, windy,

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Speaker 2: and we know New England's not to explosive offense. They

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Speaker 2: play home against the Broncos in a blizzard. They play

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Speaker 2: at Chicago at Mitch Trubisky Outdoors.

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Speaker 1: Mitch Bortle, Sorry, you've just been bordled.

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Speaker 2: Home against the Chargers, more wind, and the Chargers moved

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Speaker 2: the ball will they just threw a million picks. And

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Speaker 2: then they played two AFC South opponents at home outdoors,

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Speaker 2: So they played seven outdoor games, five of which have

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Speaker 2: been at home, a lot of wind, a lot of weather.

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Speaker 2: The opponents haven't been great, and look, I even looked

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Speaker 2: at the games with them without Chris Jones. Run defense

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Speaker 2: has been actually worse with Chris Jones against worse rush offenses.

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Speaker 2: So I think that he could make an impact up

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Speaker 2: the middle against their backup center and pass rush and

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Speaker 2: maybe blow up the pocket. But this run defense is

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Speaker 2: just bad. The pass defense is okay, but it wasn't

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Speaker 2: as elite as their number after the buy war because

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Speaker 2: they just benefited from a lot of very easy schedule

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Speaker 2: and a lot of weather, and they're not going to

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Speaker 2: have the either for this game sewn.

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Speaker 1: Any thoughts on that kind of what's going into to

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Speaker 1: your numbers? Are you? Are you waiting any differently those

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Speaker 1: games or accounting for the games with and without some

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Speaker 1: of their key defenders. Is that kind of how you

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Speaker 1: arrived at the number or you kind of think that's

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Speaker 1: like too small of a sample to really differentiate between Stuck.

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Speaker 3: He made some great points there with the Niners defense.

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Speaker 3: You know, with the Casey offense, I think we got

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Speaker 3: to look at Mahomes two. You know, this season, he

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Speaker 3: suffered that knee injury back to Week seven, so he

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Speaker 3: missed I think it was, you know, two and a

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Speaker 3: half games, and then after that, you know, he wasn't

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Speaker 3: one hundred percent. And with him, he's not a rushing quarterback,

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Speaker 3: but you know, he does use his legs to skip

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Speaker 3: pocket make a big play. And we're we're starting to

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Speaker 3: see that again these past two games in the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: I mean we're seeing vintage twenty eighteen Mahomes. So I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, this Casey offense, you know, they're firing on

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Speaker 3: all silars now. So I just think this is a

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Speaker 3: great matchup. We're just saying strength on strength with this

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Speaker 3: Casey offense versus the for An defense.

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Speaker 2: No, it's a great point in that and the offensive line.

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Speaker 2: Two at injuries yet Hill that was injured, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's basically what this game came down to to me,

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Speaker 2: is that, all right, how much better is this Kansas

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Speaker 2: City offense?

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Speaker 4: Now?

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Speaker 2: I don't think the defense is good and how much

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Speaker 2: better is the Stanford defense and you have two elite units.

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Speaker 2: What I kept coming back to just looking at this game,

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Speaker 2: there's no value in the numbers. I said, you could

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Speaker 2: make a case that defensive teams, you know, the better

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Speaker 2: defenses tend tends to overperform in the Super Bowl. And

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Speaker 2: I think the two weeks leading up to the Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl provide an advantage for the defense and the defensive

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Speaker 2: coordinator who can make more adjustments to what defenses can

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Speaker 2: do and change in that time period. And I mean,

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Speaker 2: we saw it last year, but the weakest unit by

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Speaker 2: far is Kansas City's defense. But then your trump card

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Speaker 2: is your best player in the game. Patty Mahomes is

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Speaker 2: going to have the ball every time Kansas City has it.

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Speaker 2: So that's the that's what makes the Super Bowl so intriguing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and let's kind of dive into some of these

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Speaker 1: matchups because I think that's going to you know this,

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Speaker 1: I think we all have a consensus here that this

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Speaker 1: line is pretty close and they're you know, it just

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Speaker 1: kind of depends on your threshold for betting. So when

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Speaker 1: a normal week, I don't think any of us would

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Speaker 1: really be betting this game too heavily, because you know,

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Speaker 1: even for me, you know, making it a pick them

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Speaker 1: in the lines at one and a half, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's not too far off, especially when we're not talking

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Speaker 1: about going through any of the key numbers. But because

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Speaker 1: it's the Super Bowl, and that's kind of the reason

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Speaker 1: I think everyone wants to bet it. It's the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: It's the last time you get to bet on the NFL.

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Speaker 1: So let's kind of dive into these matchups and you know,

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Speaker 1: try to see how these edges are going to play out.

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Speaker 1: So I guess stuck, I'll start or to the Kansas

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Speaker 1: City run defense. That's what ranked number twenty nine in

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Speaker 1: a schedule adjusted efficiency according to Football Outsiders DVOA during

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Speaker 1: the regular season, and then the pass defense was all

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Speaker 1: the way up at number six. So do you think that,

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Speaker 1: you know, NORMALVI say passes passing, passing is more important.

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Speaker 1: How much of a detriment is this Kansas City run

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Speaker 1: defense in particular to their chances of winning this football game?

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Speaker 2: It's obviously the key matchup on San fred As the

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Speaker 2: ball I mean, and I know back to the post

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Speaker 2: by numbers, they allowed four point three yards per rush,

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Speaker 2: which would have been middle of the pack before the bye,

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Speaker 2: they allowed about five point three, which would be worse

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Speaker 2: the NFL. But like I said, there was a lot

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Speaker 2: of circumstances that worked in their favor, even against Tennessee. Right,

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Speaker 2: if you go back to the first matchup against Tennessee,

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Speaker 2: all of their explosive runs, the Titans runs happened in

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Speaker 2: the second half against Kansas City. And when they played

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Speaker 2: last week, Tennessee basically a band in the run in

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Speaker 2: the second half. And you know, they were trying to

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Speaker 2: run the outside zones against Kenssey, which they can't defend,

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Speaker 2: which is also a nightmare against San France. Usually what

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Speaker 2: Tennessee does is they pounge you, they wear you out

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Speaker 2: in the second half, and they just didn't do it.

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Speaker 2: It was another circumstance working out for Kansas City. But

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Speaker 2: if you just look at the individual parts of the

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Speaker 2: Kansas City defense, it's not good from a run perspective, right,

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Speaker 2: you have, their linebackers are not good. Just go to

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Speaker 2: Pro Football Focus and look at the ratings of run

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Speaker 2: defense linebackers they're nowhere close to the top fifty. The

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Speaker 2: defensive line on the edge, none of them are really

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Speaker 2: great defending the run. So it's not a great unit.

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Speaker 2: They're going to have to sell out, and I think

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Speaker 2: that's going to open up some opportunities, right, Like this

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Speaker 2: is where Shanahan's gonna zag when they're trying to zig,

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Speaker 2: and I think you've got to throw on early downs, right,

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Speaker 2: because what Spagnola wants to do is he wants to

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Speaker 2: take away your biggest strengths right on passing down. So

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Speaker 2: he's gonna bracket probably Kittle, right, I would imagine he might.

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Speaker 2: He might bracket Sanders as well on like you know,

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Speaker 2: third and seven, third and eight, But on first downs, right,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have to have some of their linebackers in

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Speaker 2: there who are better at defending the run, right, like

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Speaker 2: a Ragland, who aren't aren't as good at covering. Right.

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Speaker 2: So this is where all right, now I get Kittle

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Speaker 2: in space, maybe I get a couple plays to use check.

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Speaker 2: I'll get to that. But that's kind of the cat

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Speaker 2: and mouse game, and they're gonna have to try to

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Speaker 2: sell out against the run. I don't know if they

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Speaker 2: can necessarily stop it, because it's also an undisciplined defense too.

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Speaker 2: This isn't a San Franz offense that just lines up

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Speaker 2: and says I'm going to run power left, power, right right,

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Speaker 2: a lot of misdirection, a lot of pre snap motion,

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Speaker 2: a lot of play action, getting this Kansas City defensive

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Speaker 2: front seven out of position. You even saw it against Tennessee,

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Speaker 2: all of the off side penalty they had. It's just

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Speaker 2: not the most disciplined front. That spells disaster. And look,

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Speaker 2: Kansas City is one of the worst defenses in the

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Speaker 2: NFL at defending that outside zone run. So it is

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Speaker 2: not a great matchup. Now Kansas City knows that, right,

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Speaker 2: So they're gonna have to sell out completely. They're going

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Speaker 2: to bring a safety down the box and they're gonna

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Speaker 2: have to have their best running linebackers in there early

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Speaker 2: and I think that's where it's going to open up

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Speaker 2: opportunities for the San Fran passing offense. And they're gonna

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Speaker 2: have to pass this week. They can't get away with

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Speaker 2: doing what they did the last couple of weeks. But

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Speaker 2: I think some Jimmy g' is gonna have some early

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Speaker 2: down success throwing the ball, and I'm just not sure

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Speaker 2: no matter what Kansas City does, they're going to completely

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Speaker 2: slow down this San Fran rushing tack. Now, if they

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Speaker 2: just sell out they're going to contain it a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but that's now you become vulnerable with a lot of

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Speaker 2: the weapons on the outside that San fran has.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I should mention a couple of things. So

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Speaker 1: number one is the both of these teams really make

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Speaker 1: heavy use of the play actions. San Francisco is number

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Speaker 1: five in the league with a twenty seven point four

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Speaker 1: percent rate of play action passes and the Kansas City

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Speaker 1: number seven at twenty six point four percent, So both

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Speaker 1: of these teams make heavy use of play action. San

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Speaker 1: Francisco has been excellent when they go to play action.

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Speaker 1: They are averaging eleven point two yards per pass attempt

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Speaker 1: on play action this season. They have one hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty one attempts for four hundred and seventy three yards

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Speaker 1: during the regular season, so eleven point two. Third in

360
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Speaker 1: the league in terms of yards per attempt. Kansas City

361
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Speaker 1: a bit closer to the middle of the pack, only

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Speaker 1: eight point two yards per attempt. Patrick Mahomes, you don't

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Speaker 1: even need to fake it with him. He's that good that,

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Speaker 1: you know, the deception or not. I think it just

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Speaker 1: works out for him. But Sean, you know you mentioned

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Speaker 1: you have the Chiefs as a favorite. What do you

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Speaker 1: think are their edges, you know, as far as them

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Speaker 1: winning this game. I know you kind of project out

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Speaker 1: all of the players and whatnot, So what do you think,

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Speaker 1: like some of the key matchups are I guess on

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Speaker 1: on the Kansas City offensive side that could fit the

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Speaker 1: San Francisco defense in a way that probably most teams

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Speaker 1: can't because you know, this is the best offense.

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Speaker 3: I think big picture and kind of going back to

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Speaker 3: what Stuck he was saying, I mean, the worst matchup

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Speaker 3: or you know, the strength of the San Francisco is

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Speaker 3: the rushing attack against this run funnel Casey defense. So

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Speaker 3: I think if San Francisco gets behind, or they get

379
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Speaker 3: in a situation where Jimmy g is forced to throw

380
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Speaker 3: that even takes away play action, it won't be as effective.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's key for San Francisco to get ahead.

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Speaker 3: They can't fall behind Casey. I mean, we've seen in

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Speaker 3: the past couple of weeks where you know, even if

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Speaker 3: Casey falls behind, their strength is their passing offense. Granted,

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Speaker 3: san francisco passing defense is you know, elite, but they

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Speaker 3: at least have a chance to keep relatively their entire

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Speaker 3: playbook even when coming from behind, So I think Casey

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Speaker 3: has more routes to victory and that in that regard,

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Speaker 3: so I think that that's where they have the edge here,

390
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Speaker 3: and that's why I think they should be favored. I

391
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Speaker 3: think both teams are, you know, even in terms of strength,

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Speaker 3: but just you know, the way the game goes, I

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Speaker 3: think every out come early on, well, we'll favor Casey

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Speaker 3: in the long run. So San Francisco they have to

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Speaker 3: take early and I think we'll talk to that early

396
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Speaker 3: on or or later on about like first quarter lines

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Speaker 3: and things like that, where I think San Francisco does

398
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Speaker 3: have an edge, but the full game, I think Casey

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Speaker 3: does have them, just in terms of strength versus weaknesses.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know that that's a very good point

401
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Speaker 1: because that was one of the things that stuck out

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Speaker 1: to me when when the Lions first came out, was

403
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Speaker 1: that this is really a coin flip game to me,

404
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Speaker 1: because I think it could come down to something as

405
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Speaker 1: simple as the coin toss as far as who wins

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Speaker 1: a toss. I you know, these teams usually defer when

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Speaker 1: they win to toss, but I wouldn't be surprised, especially

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Speaker 1: if San Francisco won the toss if they received.

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Speaker 2: Do you think they're going to receive?

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised in this game, I wouldn't be surprised.

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Speaker 1: Like with Kyle Shannon Homes.

412
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Speaker 2: You want to give Mahomes a potential back to back

413
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Speaker 2: the end of the half, start the second half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but you can't think I think I feel like

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Speaker 1: you can't think of it that way. You have to

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Speaker 1: think of it as I need to. If I have

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Speaker 1: Mahomes back to back but he's down, it's different from

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Speaker 1: me deferring if we get down seven to nothing, that's

419
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Speaker 1: a problem Like that changes the whole complexion of the game,

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 2: But don't you think that who do they think their

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Speaker 2: best unit is? Which is an interesting question, but I

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Speaker 2: would think that there they.

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Speaker 1: Still say it's a defense. No, And I agree that

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Speaker 1: this is what I'm saying, Like I agree in theory

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Speaker 1: that usually you would always defer in these situations. I

427
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Speaker 1: just think that in this type of game, I think

428
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Speaker 1: you do want to jump out on Kansas City because

429
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Speaker 1: they've been living dangerously. I mean, let's look at the

430
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 1: last three playoff games going back to the AFC Championship

431
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Speaker 1: last year. They fall behind to the Patriots of fourteen nothing.

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Speaker 1: Then they and they end up losing that game. They

433
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Speaker 1: do come back, but they end up losing that game,

434
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Speaker 1: but then they fall behind to Houston twenty four nothing,

435
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Speaker 1: and then they fall behind to to Tennessee ten nothing.

436
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 1: Kansas City has been living dangerously and San Francisco, if

437
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 1: they are able to get a lead like that, they

438
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,879
Speaker 1: have the type of team to hold that lead. I

439
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,639
Speaker 1: just think in this particular situation, I wouldn't be surprised.

440
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 1: I don't.

441
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 2: I don't know, well, I would love it. I would

442
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 2: love it because I like I love San fran first quarter,

443
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 2: which get piggyback on what you said with the lead.

444
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 2: And by the way, I agree this, the margins are thin.

445
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 2: It could come up to here's my obligatory special teams mentioned.

446
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 2: I think Kansas City has the better special teams right,

447
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 2: people are sleeping on how I think Robbie gold is washed.

448
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 2: He's six of twelve from forty plus this year. So

449
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 2: Kansas City is the more liable kicker. They had the

450
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,880
Speaker 2: better returner San frans like twenty six and touchback percentage.

451
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 2: I don't know if they do it on purpose or not,

452
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 2: but Kansas City is the more dangerous returner as well,

453
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:25,880
Speaker 2: just throwing that out there. I rate Kansasy's special teams

454
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 2: litill higher, but from the first quarter perspective. Look, Andy

455
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 2: Reid off a bye has been great, right, but I

456
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:32,959
Speaker 2: think Kyle Shanahan off of a bye can cook up

457
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 2: just as well. But it reads nineteen to nine against

458
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:36,639
Speaker 2: the spread after by twenty three and five straight up

459
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 2: worth mentioning. If you go back to all all of

460
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: his games after a bye, right, he's played twenty eight games,

461
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 2: he's outscored opponents one hundred and fifty nine to ninety

462
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 2: nine in the first quarter after by weeks, but in

463
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 2: the playoffs it's thirty eight to forty one. He's trailing

464
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,159
Speaker 2: by three, but it's kind of skewed by Houston whatever.

465
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,400
Speaker 2: In the playoffs. Three of the eight times his teams

466
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 2: are going scoreless in the first quarter, including the Super Bowl.

467
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,679
Speaker 2: But a lot of that the teams are so different.

468
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 2: Look at this year's Kansas City team. Nine out of

469
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 2: eighteen games this year they've held they were held to

470
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 2: three points a few in the first quarter. Six out

471
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 2: of eighteen they were held scoreless only four for Sant

472
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 2: fran and six compared to nine for San Fran as well.

473
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 2: Kansasy was outscored one hundred and eleven to ninety seven

474
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 2: in the first quarter this year. San Fran outscored opponent's

475
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty to seventy three. They were plus

476
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 2: forty seven. Kansas City was minus fourteen. Kansissey's only held

477
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 2: the lead eight times after the fourth first quarter this

478
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 2: year for a fourteen win team. That's pretty crazy. They

479
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 2: were ranked tenth in first quarter points per game. San

480
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 2: Frans ranked third. The Kansas City defense ranked twenty eighth

481
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 2: in first quarter points per game. San Fran defense ranked eleventh.

482
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 2: All the numbers here support you know that Kannsy's getting

483
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 2: off to the slow start. I think it's taking a

484
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 2: little bit of time from a homes He reads the defenses,

485
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 2: he figures it out, and then their offense starts rolling,

486
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 2: which is what I think will happen here, right this.

487
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 2: San Fran is so good in their scripted play portion, right,

488
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 2: Shanahan is so good there. And one of the risks

489
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 2: that you have with San Fran is will Jimmy G

490
00:21:58,280 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 2: throw a bad pick?

491
00:21:59,160 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 3: Right?

492
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 2: Well, that's not really a risk in the first quarter

493
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 2: in the scripted play portion, they know what they're gonna do.

494
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,199
Speaker 2: Maybe later in the game of Kansas City's up and

495
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 2: he has to force to throw that, maybe that comes

496
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 2: back to haunt them. But I think sant Fran knows

497
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 2: what they want to do. They're gonna have their advantages

498
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 2: here and they can change their defense. I think you

499
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,239
Speaker 2: know they're gonna run their cover three, the cover four.

500
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 2: They they could disguise some looks early much more than

501
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: I think what Kansas City can do is, which is

502
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:24,719
Speaker 2: just try to sell out to stop the run or

503
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,880
Speaker 2: try to double this guy and double that guy. From

504
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 2: a feeling out perspective, it's gonna take Kansas to Kanadas

505
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: City's offense just a tad more time to figure out

506
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 2: what's going on, whereas San Fran, I think it just

507
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 2: come out. They can bully the way. They're gonna have

508
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,199
Speaker 2: some I think first down throws, they're gonna maybe some

509
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,439
Speaker 2: trick plays ready to go, and I think that that

510
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 2: all that. That's why I kind of like San Frank

511
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 2: first quarter. I don't just kind of like got to

512
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 2: play it. San Fran first quarter moneyline plus one hundred

513
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: one oh five and then plus a half minus one

514
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 2: forty five minus one fifty.

515
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 1: That's interesting because it's really been an issue for can't

516
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 1: you You wouldn't expect somebody like Andy Reid and giving

517
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 1: the offense that they have kind of getting these first

518
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 1: quarter holes. And I mean, I think part of it is,

519
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: you know, they also always defer in their defense isn't

520
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 1: very good and they are confident that they can get

521
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 1: out of it. Kind Of one of the reasons I

522
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: call this game a toss up is because San Francisco

523
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: and this is a key I think to understand and

524
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: it's been a key to kind of betting this team

525
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 1: all playoffs and really all season more than any other team.

526
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: They are able to get pressure without blitzing. So they're

527
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: able to get pressure with just four rushers. During the

528
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 1: regular season, they finished number two in pressure rate at

529
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 1: twenty eight point seven percent, while blitzing at the fourth

530
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 1: lowest rate, just twenty point nine percent. So they they're

531
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: only sending extra rushers about one out of every five times,

532
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 1: you know, on pass naps, and yet they still are

533
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: top two in the league in generating pressure. So that

534
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 1: that's something again where if they get a lead that

535
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 1: plays out and that that also takes out something. Even

536
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: though Kansas City hasn't been as spectacular in play action.

537
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: That also takes some of that out. That ability is

538
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 1: going to play key because we've seen it with the

539
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: Giants upsetting the Patriots when they kind of get pressure

540
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 1: and use guys in coverage and they had two weeks

541
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 1: to kind of devise a game plan. Even the Eagles,

542
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 1: even though that was a high scoring Super Bowl between

543
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 1: them and the Patriots, the Eagles were another team that

544
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: year that they had a very good front foard. They

545
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: were able to drop guys into coverage and with you know,

546
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks to prepare, kind of come up

547
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: with some schemes that could at least hold them in

548
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,959
Speaker 1: check enough to where they could outscore on the Patriots.

549
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: On the other side, the teams with this explosive offense

550
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: is the way you beat them, especially in these these

551
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 1: important games, is you get pressure. So I think that

552
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 1: will play a key role.

553
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 2: So I try to think how the game is going

554
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 2: to play out. So if they are getting pressure right,

555
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 2: that does lead to Mahomes maybe running little bit. And

556
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 2: that's why San Fran their numbers verse running quarterbacks haven't

557
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 2: been great, just because you have to get out of

558
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 2: pocket so much, right, away, even though the Mahomes numbers

559
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 2: ridiculously inflated. But also does that mean that Mahomes because

560
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 2: the fascinating match up to me is that their speed

561
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 2: versus the San Franz zone, which they're gonna run on

562
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 2: first and second down, they'll play some man, they'll play

563
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 2: a lot of man on third down, but they kensas

564
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 2: City is the fastest offense in the NFL. Does Mahomes

565
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 2: have time right to hit a hill all harm and

566
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 2: deep or is the pressure getting into him so much

567
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 2: that this is why I like Damian Williams, by the way,

568
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 2: and I know that Andy Reid's gonna have a couple

569
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 2: of screens drawn up for this pressure. But is he

570
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: just getting rid of the ball so quick that it's

571
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: a lot of the possession guys, the Williams, they're getting

572
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 2: a lot of catches because of these, you know, almost

573
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 2: an extension of the running game. So that that's one

574
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:20,479
Speaker 2: of the things that I thought about with the pressure.

575
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 1: So every quarterback in the league it does worse under pressure,

576
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: Like you don't do better when you're pressured and you're

577
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: hurrying throws and you have to get rid of the ball.

578
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 1: So yes, it will affect him, And the thing with

579
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 1: Mahomes is there's really that's really there's no other way

580
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 1: to affect him more than that. I think the thing

581
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: about San Francisco is when you when you don't witz

582
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: and you can get pressure without witzing, Yeah, it forces

583
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: you to go underneath a little more and get the

584
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 1: ball out quicker. So yeah, they allow the lowest average

585
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,239
Speaker 1: depth of target six point eight yards per target, and

586
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: that's because they're getting that pressure, they're forcing you to

587
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 1: go underneath. So I do think that they can have

588
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: that effect more so than pretty much any other defense

589
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 1: Mahomes has faced this year. But all that being said,

590
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 1: how we think you know, this game kind of favored

591
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: Stan Frand a little more if they are able to

592
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: get out to a lead. You know, Sean, you and

593
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 1: I always kind of talk about, okay, live betting angles,

594
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: like if X happens, how would we live bet the game?

595
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 1: You know, depending on the different outcomes. So is there

596
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: any kind of way you're leaning in terms of if

597
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: you see, you know, either team get out to a

598
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: lead or you see points in the first few minutes

599
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: of the game, with that kind of change your live

600
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 1: betting strategy.

601
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I mean I have the fair toll for

602
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 3: this game at fifty two and a half. If the

603
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 3: Foreigners get out to an early one to two score lead,

604
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 3: I think the environment of the game would lean towards

605
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 3: the over. Obviously, there's gonna be different factors involved. I'm

606
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 3: gonna be analyzing what the estimated rest of the game

607
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 3: numbers and all that, but I think just in general,

608
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 3: when the Finers got to lead, it's gonna lean towards

609
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 3: the over. You know, we're gonna have the Foreigners rush

610
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 3: offense against this Casey, you know, run funnel defense. That's

611
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 3: gonna help, you know, mostly it's an explosive back. We're

612
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 3: gonna see big plays still from the Feinniners offense when

613
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 3: they have the full playbook. And then Casey, we've mentioned it,

614
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 3: you know, mahomes, that's their strength, so they'll still be

615
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 3: able to put up points. And on the flip side,

616
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 3: if Casey gets out to an early, you know, one

617
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 3: to two score lead, I'm in a lean towards the under. Again,

618
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: forcing Jimmy g into a must pass situation is not

619
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,719
Speaker 3: ideal for the fur Niners, and then you know, Casey

620
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 3: will likely take their foot off the guests a little

621
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,239
Speaker 3: bit run more with Damian Williams into this, you know,

622
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,959
Speaker 3: lethal run defense by the Furtniners. So I think that's

623
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 3: kind of how I'm gonna approach the end game angle

624
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 3: on the total.

625
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's I think that's the sharp way to

626
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: approach it, and because if it's if it goes the

627
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: other way, where if Casey gets up, Yes, we do

628
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: expect San Francisco to throw more, but I'm looking at

629
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: their pace numbers right now on Football Outsiders, and when

630
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 1: they trail by seven or more, the forty nine ers

631
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: rank number thirty two dead West in the league in

632
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 1: pace when they're trailing.

633
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 2: So what's that sample size though?

634
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, it's not large obviously because they have

635
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: a trail much. But I'm just saying like that is

636
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: something to note. San Francisco is not necessarily a team

637
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 1: that's going at a breakneck pace just because they get down,

638
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 1: because I think that is something to note for people

639
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 1: that you know, maybe think, hey, well, San Francisco's a

640
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 1: running team, so if they get up, it's actually better

641
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 1: because then they'll they'll just run more. Well, not necessarily

642
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: because we've seen it.

643
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, both teams also are bottom of the league.

644
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 2: In pace. When they get us a lead of seven

645
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 2: plus points, they tend to go a little more conservative.

646
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 2: But like Sean, like you said, when San Franco is conservative,

647
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,199
Speaker 2: they could still march up and down the field. And

648
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 2: then you're gonna have Mahomes trying to you know, he's

649
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 2: gonna have Mahomes magic on the field a lot of times.

650
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 2: What you try to anticipate, and it's really difficult, right,

651
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 2: is we're looking at this game, and so are the

652
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 2: fucking people that are getting paid to try and win

653
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: the game. Right. So that's why you see last year,

654
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 2: New England comes out with the variation of a defense

655
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 2: that has given the Rams trouble, and the Rams come

656
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: out with this you know zone man morph that you

657
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:50,959
Speaker 2: know gave Brady issues. And you see this a lot

658
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 2: if two weeks to prepare. It's the last game of

659
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 2: the year, it's for all the marbles. So one of

660
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 2: the things I was trying to figure out is this

661
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 2: San Francis they play a ton of zone. You know,

662
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 2: it's their mo play. It's basically a morphing matchup, you know,

663
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 2: Cover three with Cover four and Cover one. It's basically

664
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 2: a very very advanced Pete Carroll defense. But Mahomes shred

665
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 2: zones right because he can buy time and then his

666
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 2: receivers that were so fast can find holes. So my

667
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 2: thinking was, this San French and they do play man

668
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 2: on third? Do they try to come out and play man?

669
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 2: But I just don't think that Richard Sherman is playing

670
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 2: man against Tyreek like that. There's too much speed, I think.

671
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 2: So that's the fascinating match of this elite zone, which

672
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna have to run a lot, and

673
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 2: they still will, but it's a thought that crossed my

674
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 2: mind versus Mahomes, who's the number one quarterback in the

675
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: NFL against his zone.

676
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: I think, so that's an interesting question, and I think

677
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: that it would be interesting if they played man but

678
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 1: gave Sherman and perhaps whoever's guarding Kelsey help because they

679
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: do have good coverage linebackers. All of their corners are

680
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 1: very good period, So they have coverage players where let's

681
00:29:56,080 --> 00:30:00,239
Speaker 1: say you double Tyreek, Ko and Kelsey, you could us

682
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 1: those guys so you can do some things in man coverage.

683
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: So that is something I think will be an option

684
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: out of If then that's.

685
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 2: Slot, you throw hardman in the slot and then you're

686
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 2: asking a corner with Mahomes, buying time when you're already

687
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 2: using a safety over top of hill. That's where it

688
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 2: would get dicey. But it's an interesting thing that I'll

689
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 2: be looking for. I assume they're going to run a

690
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 2: lot of zones still, but if they want to come

691
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 2: and throw a wrench, especially early, play a little more

692
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 2: man on first and second down early on.

693
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, And another thing to keep in mind is, and

694
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: Sean and I have talked a lot about this, Blake

695
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 1: Bell has seen an increase in snaps and if he's

696
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: the fifth guy on the field, and a lot of

697
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: times teams have to use five an extra pass blocker,

698
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: and it's not always the running back because you're trying

699
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 1: to combat that four man rush and so you need

700
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 1: it on the edge. You might have Blake Bell in

701
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: there over a guy like Hardman if the pressure is

702
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: too much, and then that takes like Hardman out of

703
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 1: the mix because then Bell is that fifth skill player

704
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: because you're still gonna have Damian Williams in there unless

705
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 1: they go empty. So it is a cat and mouse game,

706
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: all right. So let's transition to what I think is

707
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: the most fun part about betting the Super Bowl, which

708
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: is props. You have so many props, player props, game props,

709
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 1: props on everything from the anthem to the coin toss

710
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: to you know, yardage, touchdown, first touchdown, so many different props.

711
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: So we are going to kind of run through a

712
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: bunch of the different prop categories in our favorite bets.

713
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: Within those, we will start with. Let's let's start with

714
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: the start of the game. We talked about it a little,

715
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: talked about the Chiefs they've been getting down lately, stuck

716
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: you like the first quarter money line for the Niners, Sean,

717
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 1: anything you see in terms of first quarter or just

718
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 1: you know, starting the game. In terms of values here,

719
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: maybe first reception, first touchdown. I know you project all

720
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: and simulate ten thousand times all of those outcomes. Who's

721
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: kind of showing value for you for some of those props.

722
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the two I'm going to tackle are the

723
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 3: first reception and first touchdown. So when it comes to

724
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 3: the first reception, I'm basically just taking you know, the

725
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 3: estimated target share reception share and allocating that, just finding

726
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 3: out what the percentage would be for the first catch.

727
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 3: I'm not really taking I'm not speculating anything when it

728
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 3: comes to this, but tire Hill for the first reception

729
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 3: of the game. I have that closer to seven to one,

730
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 3: and they're offering seven plus seven to fifty not too

731
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 3: much value. You know the thing, if you're going to

732
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 3: take that prompt for the you know, the first of

733
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 3: the game, you're kind of, you know, giveaway some some

734
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 3: luck to the coin toss itself. You know which team's

735
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 3: going to differ, which team's gonna get first. So if

736
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 3: tier Kill, if you take him and the Niners get

737
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 3: it first, you know, that's a huge blow to the prop.

738
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 3: But I think the Niners, if they get the ball first,

739
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 3: there's at least a range of outcomes where they they

740
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 3: rush it twice, throw an incomplete pass, and punt. If

741
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 3: the Chiefs get it first and you have a forty

742
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 3: nine er in this market, I think the prop's dead.

743
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs will get completed pass on the

744
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 3: first drive of the game. So that's why I like

745
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 3: Tyrera Kill for the first reception of the game, and

746
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 3: then for just the Niners specifically, I have Emmanuel Sanders

747
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 3: at plus five point fifty. I have that being closer

748
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: to plus four to fifteen, and like I mentioned if

749
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 3: you're gonna take a Niner, just go to the market

750
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 3: where it's the first player comes from the Niners. So

751
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 3: if the first catch the game is a Chief, you know,

752
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 3: it doesn't affect your bed at all. So that's how

753
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 3: approaching that market. And then when it comes the first

754
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 3: touchdown of the game. I think the the number one

755
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 3: value player right now is Miko Harman at He's twenty

756
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: two to one on DraftKings. I think that's massive value

757
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 3: because we've seen him push DeMarcus Robinson lately. They've they've

758
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 3: been pretty much an even time chair And when you

759
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 3: guys are talking about this specific matchup, I could see

760
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 3: them using harmon more. So, you know, he has a

761
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 3: ton of potential if he's starting. He has six touchdowns

762
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:45,719
Speaker 3: on the air in his limited role to begin with,

763
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 3: so he has massive touchdown potential. I could see them

764
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 3: he could Yeah, that's yeah, that's what I'm saying. Like

765
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 3: he could be the first player that touches the ball

766
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 3: on the kickoff. So that's where I'm saying this has

767
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 3: some sneaky value. Again, you're you're not betting on him

768
00:33:59,920 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 3: or turing the kickoff, But when when it comes to

769
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 3: this prop I have it being closer to fifteen to

770
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,479
Speaker 3: one as the fair line for this, So twenty two

771
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: to one if you can get it, I think that's

772
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 3: the play for this market.

773
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 1: Oh well, yeah, so that you're seeing a ton of

774
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: value there if you yeah, if you have it all

775
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 1: the way down to fifteen to one up, So Mekole Hardman,

776
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 1: first touch touchdown, right, yeah, first touchdown, yep, and then okay,

777
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 1: it stuck. Any any thoughts, any bets you're you're kind

778
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 1: of looking at in terms of the in these early

779
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,439
Speaker 1: games besides the quarter the first quarter money line.

780
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'd like Sanfran earlier for a lot

781
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 2: of the reasons I outlined before, and I agree with

782
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 2: what Sean said of it. But the one thing that

783
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 2: I think could throw a wrench into that is if

784
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: Shanahan is going to zag and throw a lot more

785
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,720
Speaker 2: on early downs. And you know, because it's a scripted

786
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 2: portion of the game. It's Jimmy g who's thrown what

787
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 2: four passes in the past month, So in the Super

788
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: Bowl he comes out, he gets them like an early completion,

789
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 2: like an early really easy throw on first down, So

790
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 2: hopefully use check for me. I'll get into that prop earlier,

791
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 2: but because of the struggles of Kansas City in the

792
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 2: first quarter, and mainly why I think those will continue

793
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 2: because of this matchup and what San Fran could do defensively,

794
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 2: and how it will take a little more time for

795
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 2: Kansas City to figure out what San Fran is doing

796
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 2: defensively than vice versa. I would maybe look at the

797
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,439
Speaker 2: San Fran player first touchdown. The problem is you got

798
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: to figure out who's playing for San Fran in the backfield,

799
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,919
Speaker 2: and they run it so much, and so it's it's

800
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: uh and I'll I'll turn you guys. We should probably

801
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 2: touch on it. I know you got to touch on

802
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 2: your podcast because you have Brito as fumble ightists, so

803
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 2: they don't really trust them, and you would think that

804
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 2: you especially don't trust them near the goal line even more.

805
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 2: And then you have Coleman, who is healthy ish maybe,

806
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 2: and then you have most of obviously went nuts last week.

807
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 2: So I was all ready to fade most in the

808
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 2: prop markets, like this dude just ran for two twenty

809
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:50,760
Speaker 2: two or four touchdowns, Like his number is gonna be insane,

810
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 2: and everyone's betting is over, everyone's gonna bet is over.

811
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 2: And then numbers come out I'm like, this is pretty inflated.

812
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: There was like eight. I know the numbers are over

813
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 2: the place, But then I'm like, I don't know who

814
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 2: else could get the he might be the only one

815
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: getting the carries against the bad run defense. So then

816
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 2: I got all confused. So Curiosky your thoughts on that

817
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 2: as well.

818
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a really popular bet. I'm sure Mike

819
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: Moster for first touchdown, Like where what would that line

820
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: have to be if you have it for you for

821
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 1: you to see any value on most It's.

822
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 3: A little bit tricky if Coleman's serve heloping there. But

823
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 3: right now I have his fair value on that is

824
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 3: plus six fifty. Again, he's gonna be popular, So I

825
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 3: think most sites are what five to one? Now, I

826
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 3: didn't see any value on that, but yeah, obviously I

827
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 3: think he'll get the goal one carries sighting for sure. Well,

828
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 3: I have most are sixteen and a half carries Breeda

829
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 3: four and a half and Coleman three and a half,

830
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 3: but those are kind of murky right now.

831
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough because we've kind of seen the same

832
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 1: thing happen in back to back games. We're in the

833
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: first playoff game, Moster kind of came into the game

834
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: as the lead back, and then he gets hurt or

835
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 1: you know, kind of banged up in the game. So

836
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: Coleman steals the show, gets twenty plus carries, gets a

837
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: couple of scores, and then the next game everyone's ready

838
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,359
Speaker 1: to kind of annoint Coleman, and then he gets early

839
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: in the game and then most Are re establishes himself.

840
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 1: So now it is a really tough situation. If Coleman

841
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 1: is active, I think I would probably like, would you

842
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 1: bump like how much do you would you see yourself?

843
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 1: I guess bumping up Coleman if he if he's like

844
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: just active, like because I think that's three of what

845
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: comes down to. If he's active, would you leave it

846
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 1: at three and a half? Where would you kind of

847
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 1: bump it up? Yeah, I'm bumping it up, And well,

848
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: we'll have to hear what kind of active he is.

849
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,839
Speaker 1: If it's just he's active, to maybe give him a carry,

850
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 1: he could re injure it. You know, there's gonna be

851
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: a lot of variables.

852
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 3: I would be concerned for most cert in this market

853
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 3: if Coleman's worled out and they activate Jeffrey Wilson who

854
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 3: has been a vulture all year, so that might scare me.

855
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 3: But I think I think if they get a goal

856
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:48,720
Speaker 3: on carry, even if Coleman is playing and relatively healthy,

857
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 3: I think they'll give it to Moser here with the

858
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 3: super Bowl on the line. I think Moser earned this,

859
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 3: you know, this game, to be the workhorse back and

860
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 3: Matt Brida I called it a couple of weeks ago.

861
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 3: You know, he fumbled that carry in the game, and

862
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 3: even when Coleman had to leave this game, they didn't

863
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,720
Speaker 3: even give breath of the ball. Really, Mostart was obviously

864
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 3: tearing it up. But I just think this could be

865
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 3: just a heavy Moser game again. So I do like

866
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,239
Speaker 3: his odds on you first touchdown market, but I think

867
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 3: the market knows that and they're going to flate it

868
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 3: because people are probably flooding on him right now.

869
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm seeing our friends at Points Bet have him

870
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: at plus six hundred, and he's the number. He's the leading,

871
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of the shortest odds to get

872
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: the first touchdown. He's at plus six hundred, followed by

873
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: Damien Williams at plus six fifty than Travis Kelcey and

874
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill at plus seven point fifty each. So did

875
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 1: you think, did any one of you guys you think

876
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 1: Mostard is the best bet out of those four guys.

877
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 1: I think they will be the most popular. Any thoughts

878
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: on kind of where most ranks or if any one

879
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 1: of those kind of has more value than Moster?

880
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:55,839
Speaker 3: No, No, I think Moster is definitely the play there.

881
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 3: I mean you mentioned Damian Williams. He's six to one

882
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 3: as well, and I have him being closer to eight

883
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 3: to one for fair odds. So I think most if

884
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 3: you're gonna bet one of those guys, I think Moster

885
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 3: right now at plus six fifty is the play. I mean,

886
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 3: it's I would consider just a break even bet. So

887
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 3: if you need to have action on this market, you

888
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 3: could take him and hard Man. I think those are

889
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 3: the two plays that actually offer break even value.

890
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: What let's talk about the long shots for this first

891
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: touchdown because I think, you know, even if they don't

892
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: offer and when we say value, I should just explain

893
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: to to the you know, the kind of more casual

894
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 1: betters out there. Every all of these these lines that

895
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: we're throwing out there essentially money lines. We call them juice.

896
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 1: If you know, if they're if they're a you see

897
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 1: a minus in front of them, we kind of say

898
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 1: they're juiced up. And if there's a plus, it's plus money.

899
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 1: So essentially plus money. Anytime there's a plus, it means

900
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 1: you're getting either even money or they're implying under a

901
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: fifty percent chance of an event to happen.

902
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 2: I think, I think a really good example that is

903
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 2: worth explaining to listeners corner you should explain just the

904
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 2: difference between the Damian Williams, what hey, I'm gonna bet

905
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 2: at at twelve and a half and not thirteen and

906
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 2: a half. And I think that really illustrates the prop

907
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 2: market and value really well.

908
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean, like you mentioned, I have all

909
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 3: these props, I have an exact percentage, and then I

910
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 3: compare that to the market, and then you can you

911
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 3: can see your perceived edge. So anything that I have

912
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 3: for the edge or I'm at least in linement with

913
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 3: the market, it's you know, a break even in bet,

914
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:25,759
Speaker 3: which I called it, and I typically bet when I

915
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 3: see an edge of three percent or more. So, like

916
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 3: you said earlier on, I have Hardman at fifteen to

917
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 3: one and he's being offered at twenty two to one.

918
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:36,919
Speaker 3: So I think that's a let me do some quick

919
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,839
Speaker 3: math here, but that's gonna be four. It's about seven.

920
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: It's almost like it's like seven the difference between US

921
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 1: six and a half and four and a half or

922
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: something like that. Yeah.

923
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say two percent. I mean that

924
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 3: I typically want more of an edge, but this is

925
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 3: a Super Bowl, so I think having some action on

926
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 3: this market that's something I would take. But when you

927
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 3: have a prop that's twenty two to one, you're not

928
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 3: betting the same amount you would on that as you

929
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 3: would bet that you have like a sixty eight percent

930
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 3: chance of hitting. I'm going a very light action on that.

931
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 3: That's just the sort of a lottery ticket. But when

932
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 3: it comes to some of the props we have later

933
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 3: on where I have massive v eue on, I mean

934
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 3: those I'm max betting. So that that's another key. There

935
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 3: is money management and understanding which bets to kind of

936
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 3: load up on and which ones to kind of, you know,

937
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 3: put a light play on.

938
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:19,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the outs.

939
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 2: The outs are important too, Like the twelve the difference

940
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 2: between a twelve and a half pop twelve and a

941
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 2: half carries to thirteen and a half. Basically you were like,

942
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet it's a difference between betting it and

943
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 2: not betting it, right, I mean it's it's a huge

944
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 2: difference out of a casual better it might not be.

945
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 2: It's like, I'm betting over twelve and a half over thirteen,

946
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 2: and if you're just doing it recreationally just to throw twenty,

947
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 2: who cares, then fine. But if you want to do

948
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,839
Speaker 2: it seriously, have a couple outs, because if you find

949
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,760
Speaker 2: a twelve and ninf out there, that's a huge difference

950
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 2: in the number of carries in thirteen and a half

951
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 2: over time.

952
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 1: Yeah.

953
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 3: So like you said, that prop I have in that range,

954
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 3: I have each carry in the twelve, thirteen and fourteen

955
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:00,399
Speaker 3: him getting exactly twelve, thirteen or fourteen, each being ten

956
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,879
Speaker 3: to eleven percent chance. So like you said, any half number,

957
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 3: any number in that range is this massive. So yeah,

958
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 3: all it takes is one carrier to go up where

959
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,800
Speaker 3: I'm off the bet, whereas before, you know, I was

960
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 3: max betting it. So yeah, that that's a good explanation.

961
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 3: I'll all go over all that when we discuss yardist props.

962
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 3: I think that'll that'll explain it further.

963
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 1: The interesting thing about something like that with the carries.

964
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 1: Is a lot of times the books are adjusting their

965
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: numbers based on the action that they're getting, right. So

966
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 1: sometimes you'll see they'll make a projection for a running back,

967
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: like let's say Damian Williams. You know, they'll say twelve

968
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 1: and a half carries for forty eight and a half

969
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 1: yards or something like that. They'll get a lot more

970
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 1: action on what let's say, they get a lot more

971
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 1: action on the on the yardage, that will get juiced up.

972
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: But if no one's betting the carries, sometimes they leave

973
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 1: that alone and you can kind of if you're looking

974
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 1: to bet let's say an over on Damian Williams, you

975
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: can kind of look at both of those and say, okay,

976
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 1: is there more value here on the carries or on

977
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 1: the yards because the books don't always adjust it right away,

978
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 1: at least I found in those situations a lot of

979
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:04,879
Speaker 1: times I'll just adjust the juice on whatever's getting action.

980
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 1: So if you see a bet you don't like, maybe

981
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: for like receiving or running, and you don't like the yardage,

982
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: or you're looking for a certain number, check the volume

983
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: stats as well, because sometimes those aren't updated as quick.

984
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 1: If there's not as much action, so like if you

985
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: like an over on receiving yards for a player, and

986
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 1: that's just kind of getting inflated, and then you look

987
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 1: and say, hey, look his receptions are still kind of

988
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 1: where I project the median and I still see you

989
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 1: might find value there. So that's also something to put

990
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 1: in mind. My favorite long shot bet though for first touchdown,

991
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 1: aside from Hardman, who I think I love Hardman as well,

992
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 1: I also like Kendrick Bourne. I think people I think

993
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 1: one of the reasons is people aren't betting Kendrick Borne period,

994
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 1: Like he's just not attracting action. So I don't think

995
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 1: he's gonna be one of those props where it's gonna

996
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: get inflated and get bet down. If anything, it might

997
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 1: go the other way because I don't think anyone's gonna

998
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 1: touch it. But he has six touchdowns in his last

999
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 1: eleven games, and that's really Sanders came to the nine

1000
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 1: or twelve games though, and Bourne has six touchdowns in

1001
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: his last eleven. He's taken over that number three wide

1002
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 1: receiver role. He he's scored in five of the past

1003
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 1: eleven And this is a game when and this is

1004
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 1: with the forty nine ers in many in some of

1005
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 1: those games, playing with those games scrips where they're they're

1006
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:16,800
Speaker 1: getting up. You know, he scored the first touchdown in

1007
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 1: the Minnesota game, so I think there is some value

1008
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 1: he's at nineteen to one. I've seen him at twenty

1009
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 1: to one at spots as well. I do think there's

1010
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 1: a little bit of value for him on that first

1011
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 1: touchdown prop and act. And thirty three percent of Bourne's

1012
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 1: touchdowns or third have come in the first quarter of games,

1013
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 1: and that I think that just speaks to the fact

1014
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 1: that Kansas, that San Francisco, they do tend to get

1015
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 1: up and you see less of the number three receiver later.

1016
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: So Borne is a guy where I think his general

1017
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 1: range of outcomes if he does score, is going to

1018
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 1: be skewed a little bit toward the early part of

1019
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 1: the game. So that that's kind of my, uh my

1020
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: favorite long shot bet for first touchdown. Let's talk about MVP.

1021
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 1: That's that's another really popular one. And this is one

1022
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,800
Speaker 1: again where I don't think there's a great way to

1023
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 1: truly model this. You know, the MVP you're kind of

1024
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 1: just looking. We know that in general, there's there has

1025
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:12,800
Speaker 1: been somewhat of an uptick in wide receivers over the

1026
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: last fifteen years as the league has become more past heavy.

1027
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 1: We've seen wide receiver take it in four of the

1028
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 1: past fifteen years. I actually got lucky last year. We

1029
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 1: did our little Super Bowl MVP draft, and we're doing

1030
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 1: another one. It should be up on Action network dot

1031
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:28,319
Speaker 1: com as you guys are by the time you guys

1032
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 1: are listening to this, and you know, Stuck Corner a

1033
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 1: few of the other Action Network NFL experts, we all

1034
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: participated and we each get two picks and we get

1035
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:39,840
Speaker 1: to draft our favorite the top values for MVP. So

1036
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: it's the same thing where we're looking at just the

1037
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:44,879
Speaker 1: not the most likely, which I think is everyone would

1038
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 1: say is Mahomes. But who's the best value? You know,

1039
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 1: according to the numbers, And I think we know wide

1040
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 1: receivers have seen an uptick. Defensive players given that it's

1041
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 1: the you know they're they're only about I think we've

1042
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 1: only seen two in the last fifteen or so years,

1043
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 1: and then quarterbacks are by far the most likely. So

1044
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:08,439
Speaker 1: I'll start with you, Stuck, who are your favorite Who's

1045
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 1: your favorite? Two MVP bets one could be both to

1046
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: be long shot, one could be a long shot, but

1047
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 1: just kind of which. If you had a bet two,

1048
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 1: which ones would you go?

1049
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 2: Yeah. Since nineteen ninety eight, Eli Manning has won two

1050
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 2: Super Bowl MVPs, and all running backs and tight ends

1051
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 2: combined of one zero, so tight ends have actually never

1052
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 2: won one. Toreell Davis' last running back to win in

1053
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: nine ninety eight. Four defensive players have actually won it

1054
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 2: since two thousand, ray Lewis, Jackson, Smith, and Von Miller.

1055
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 2: And over the course of Super Bowl history, fifty four

1056
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 2: Super Bowls, non offensive players have actually won. At twenty

1057
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 2: percent of the time, You've got two dns, four linebackers,

1058
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 2: two safeties, a corner, defensive tackle, and a returner slash

1059
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 2: corner Woodson, and then quarterbacks are about fifty three percent

1060
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:51,320
Speaker 2: of the time. And by the way, don't bet Mahomes

1061
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 2: win MVP. Just bet the Chiefs. It's crazy that that

1062
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 2: line is close. But I can't envision. I know it's

1063
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 2: happened once before. It was a game that was so

1064
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 2: embarrassed that the guy didn't even want his MVP trophy.

1065
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:04,439
Speaker 2: It's a toilet bowl, he called it. It's not gonna happen.

1066
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 2: The losing players not winning MVP, So how can the

1067
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:10,399
Speaker 2: quarterback not win it? Randomness on defense? Right, So someone

1068
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 2: gets a huge pick six at the end end of

1069
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 2: fumble recovery.

1070
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 3: Right.

1071
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 2: So maybe if you want to look at a really

1072
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 2: long shot on the Chiefs defense, right, it would be

1073
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 2: a guy like Honey Badger. If he's always around the ball,

1074
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 2: maybe he comes in, he strips Jimmy G. Jimmy G

1075
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 2: we said is prone to picks. Maybe he gets a

1076
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 2: pick six. If you're looking for a real long shot

1077
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 2: and want to have some fun, you could throw on him.

1078
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 2: But how does a quarterback really not win it? It's

1079
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 2: when someone is either going to have to vulture a

1080
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 2: ton of touchdowns as a running back.

1081
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 3: Right.

1082
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 2: So a guy like Damian Williams, we know is going

1083
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 2: to be on the field a lot, right, So if

1084
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 2: you can get him twenty five to one, he's going

1085
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,239
Speaker 2: to get so many touches. So if Mahomes is moving

1086
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:52,320
Speaker 2: the ball and they're just getting stopped, you know, throwing

1087
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 2: it inside the red zone, inside the five to fourth,

1088
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 2: and then Williams is just getting three or four touchdowns

1089
00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:59,359
Speaker 2: as a big day through the air, He's a guy

1090
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 2: who can win it for the Chiefs on the other side.

1091
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 2: The other way that happens. We've said these receivers, it's

1092
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 2: when the quarterback doesn't have an all world type of day,

1093
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 2: maybe throw a pick, maybe lose a fumble, while one

1094
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 2: guy has a huge day. So maybe you can see

1095
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 2: that more so with Jimmy G. I mean, Mahomes just

1096
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 2: spreads the ball out so much, so maybe a guy

1097
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 2: like Kittle just goes off and Jimmy G has a

1098
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 2: pick and Kittle scores the game winning touchdown. I don't

1099
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 2: really love any MVP this game, but Damian Williams and Kittle,

1100
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 2: And if you want to throw two long shots, it's

1101
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 2: Honey Badger and then Hardman because Harman, as we talked about,

1102
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 2: has some matchup you know, give him seventy five to one.

1103
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 2: I see out there. I think he can have some

1104
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 2: matchup advantages against his defense. And kicker is you have

1105
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 2: him returning, so he could have a huge kick return

1106
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: and that goes such a long way in the eyes

1107
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 2: of you know, the MVP of a big kick return

1108
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 2: for a touchdown. So I think those are the ones

1109
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 2: I would throw out there.

1110
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 1: And before I kick it to you, Sean, just two

1111
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 1: things on what stuck. He said number one, you said

1112
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: it was it was about fifty fifty three percent quarterbacks

1113
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 1: winning that taken home again three right, and so right now,

1114
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:08,280
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is essentially even money at most books, whereas

1115
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 1: you'd really say, if they're favored, you know, so let's

1116
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 1: say they have a fifty three percent chance of winning

1117
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 1: that game. Really, you're you're you're looking at some his

1118
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 1: his real odds would be about twenty eight percent. Now,

1119
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,399
Speaker 1: he's a great quarterback. The league has become more pass heavy,

1120
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 1: but you're talking about even you account for all those factors,

1121
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 1: maybe you bump it up to like thirty three, thirty

1122
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 1: five percent, that is still nowhere close to you know,

1123
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:33,840
Speaker 1: he's at plus one hundred plus one ten. That's essentially

1124
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 1: implying a fifty to fifty chance. So Patrick Mahomes, yes,

1125
00:49:38,239 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 1: he is the most likely player to win MVP. He

1126
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: is a horrible value bet to win MVP. So I

1127
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 1: just want to point that out, you know, number one,

1128
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 1: and then number two, just to put some of the

1129
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 1: numbers behind some of the players you threw out. Jimmy

1130
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,760
Speaker 1: Garoppolo is next at plus two ten, also a pretty

1131
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:58,240
Speaker 1: bad value, you know for him not as bad as Mahomes,

1132
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 1: but but still bad. Then you have most are at

1133
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,879
Speaker 1: plus five hundred tyreek Kill plus sixteen hundred. Your guy

1134
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 1: Damian Williams is plus eighteen hundred, Kittle plus twenty two

1135
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 1: hundred Hardman I'm seeing down to forty to one, So

1136
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 1: that is I think people are actually kind of onto that.

1137
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 1: And Honey Badger also seeing him at forty one, and

1138
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 1: that's that's actually shorter than Sammy Watkins at fifty to one.

1139
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 1: So I think those, you know, those are sharp bets.

1140
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 1: But it's depending on your book, you may see some

1141
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 1: of the value bet out of guys like Hardman and

1142
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 1: Matthew already. So that's just something to keep in mind.

1143
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 1: And one final thing on the tight ends, I mean,

1144
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 1: tight end's not winning. I think you have to look

1145
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 1: at it more like pass catchers. I think Kittle and

1146
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:40,920
Speaker 1: in Kelsey.

1147
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 2: Are these areas receivers.

1148
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 1: They're in unique situations where they are you know, top

1149
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 1: producers in terms of you know, the past volume for

1150
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,320
Speaker 1: their team. So I don't look at just because the

1151
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 1: tight ends never won, that Kittle or Kelsey couldn't win

1152
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:56,320
Speaker 1: or they have a lower percentage chance than other pass catchers.

1153
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 1: I think it's just changing of the times in the matchup.

1154
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 1: But Sean, how about you, you know, just I know

1155
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 1: that you know there's nowhere way to model this, but

1156
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:07,240
Speaker 1: you know, just kind of your favorite MVP bets.

1157
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:09,800
Speaker 3: If you're going to bet the Chiefs to win, you

1158
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 3: don't need to bet Mahomes in this market. So I

1159
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 3: think the guy that I found the most value on

1160
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 3: is Manuel Sanders. He's sixty six to one at points bet.

1161
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 3: He has some routes where he can get there the

1162
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 3: conventional way. He had a seven reception, one hundred and

1163
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 3: fifty seven yard touchdown game against the Saints. You know,

1164
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 3: the foreign inners traded a third and fourth round pick

1165
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 3: to bring him in and win. Now, so I get

1166
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:33,800
Speaker 3: to see them drawing up a few potential big plays

1167
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 3: involving him. And I think one of the unique things

1168
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 3: that he offers for this market is he's throwing a

1169
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 3: thirty yard passing touchdown each of the last two seasons.

1170
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 3: If they were to drop up a play where he

1171
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:46,359
Speaker 3: throws and he happens to score a touchdown, let's say

1172
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:48,439
Speaker 3: it kind of goes to what stuck you was saying.

1173
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 3: I think that's a scenario where that kind of negates

1174
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 3: Jimmy g I mean, if Males Anders dows a touchdown

1175
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 3: pass and let's say he catches one later in the game,

1176
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 3: that's an MVP type performance. Again, at sixty six to one,

1177
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:04,399
Speaker 3: you can think outside the box like that because you're

1178
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 3: not expecting it. But I think with Sanders, I think

1179
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 3: he does have that sneaky upside as you know, a

1180
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 3: pass catcher winning this award, where he has shown the

1181
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 3: ability to do a trick play, and we see those

1182
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 3: when it comes to Super Bowl. I mean, both coaches

1183
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 3: will probably throw the kids stick out there. We could

1184
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 3: see some trick plays. So I think Sanders some play

1185
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 3: where he throws the ball, especially if you know Sucky

1186
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 3: was saying the Chiefs might just you know, trying to

1187
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 3: stop the run send in a couple of guys. It

1188
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:33,800
Speaker 3: could leave a big play play like this. So Shanahan

1189
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 3: and Might might exploit that. And that's why I think

1190
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 3: at sixty six to one, I'm definitely out some match

1191
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:38,400
Speaker 3: on this.

1192
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I like that because again, you know, going

1193
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 1: back to we had the draft last year and I

1194
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 1: ended up taking Julian Edelman. I think he was twenty

1195
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:50,240
Speaker 1: five to one, and my reasoning was kind of similar.

1196
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 1: It was, okay, he could have a big game. There's

1197
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 1: a potential for him also to run and throw. I

1198
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 1: ended up getting lucky. I mean, I thought that the

1199
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 1: award probably should have gone to Michelle stood why it

1200
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 1: went to Edelman, But you know that that's a conversation

1201
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 1: for another day. But the point being, I think it

1202
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:07,480
Speaker 1: is sharp to look at these wide receivers who, yes,

1203
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:09,440
Speaker 1: they can put up one hundred yards and San Francisco.

1204
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:12,239
Speaker 1: I think the value is on the San Francisco pass

1205
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 1: catchers because they could have a relatively low volume game.

1206
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 1: I mean Jimmy G's median projection in terms of his

1207
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 1: over under for yards and we'll talk a little bit

1208
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 1: more about all the yardage props in the second, but

1209
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:25,320
Speaker 1: it's around two hundred and forty yards. So if Sanders,

1210
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 1: let's say, gets one hundred or one hundred, you know,

1211
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 1: plus of those yards, then you're looking at a situation

1212
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 1: where there is a good chance that if the forty

1213
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:36,719
Speaker 1: nine ers win, it doesn't go to the quarterback in

1214
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 1: Jimmy G. If he's only thrown for you know, two

1215
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 1: hundred something yards, and if Sanders gets a ton of

1216
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 1: that production, it could very well go to him. That

1217
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 1: being said, I also, even though his odds are not

1218
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 1: nearly as long, at least at this point, Deebo Samuel

1219
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:52,359
Speaker 1: I think is really interesting because he I'm seeing him

1220
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 1: at thirty five to one, and he has account for

1221
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent of the forty nine ers receiving yard

1222
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 1: over the last three games, so he's kind of overtaking

1223
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 1: Kiddle a little bit. I think some of that was

1224
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 1: to do with matchup, but he's also had twenty plus

1225
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 1: rushing yards in five of the last seven games. He's

1226
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:13,239
Speaker 1: got a carry at least one carry over the last

1227
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 1: half dozen games. Going back even further, he's getting at

1228
00:54:16,239 --> 00:54:19,239
Speaker 1: least one carry, sometimes two, as many as three. So

1229
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 1: he kind of has this dual threat potential where he

1230
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:26,000
Speaker 1: could get a large percentage of a middling passing performance

1231
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:29,600
Speaker 1: from Jimmy g and he also has the potential of

1232
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 1: scoring a long rushing touchdown and then if those things

1233
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 1: are combined, especially when you consider that there's a three

1234
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 1: way backfield potentially even if Coleman is in, I think

1235
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 1: I love it even more, but you know, you have

1236
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 1: the potential for kind of most are maybe not doing

1237
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 1: as much as he did last week. It all kind

1238
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 1: of adds up to I think a route for Samuel

1239
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:56,480
Speaker 1: to take home that award and just a talented guy.

1240
00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 1: So I love him and I'll throw out one more

1241
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,839
Speaker 1: long shot, and I want to get you guys take

1242
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 1: on this because I think I irrationally like this pick

1243
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 1: as a long shot, but it makes a ton of

1244
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:09,640
Speaker 1: sense to me. The defense for the Niners, I think

1245
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 1: is a sharp place to look for value. However, a

1246
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 1: lot of people are looking to the big names Nick Bosa,

1247
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 1: Richard Sherman. Those guys are both at thirty to one.

1248
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 1: I'm seeing they're kind of lead the way. Fred Warner,

1249
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:23,280
Speaker 1: I've seen him as far as much as two hundred

1250
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:25,760
Speaker 1: and forty one. I think he's down a two hundred

1251
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 1: to one on fan duel. He's a linebacker that plays

1252
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:30,880
Speaker 1: a one hundred percent of the snaps every game for

1253
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:34,000
Speaker 1: San Francisco. He led the team in tackles by more

1254
00:55:34,080 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 1: than two dozen. He's second on the team in pass

1255
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 1: breakups with nine. During the regular season. He was tied

1256
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:43,759
Speaker 1: for the team lead in sacks after the front four.

1257
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,839
Speaker 1: So after those four pass rushers on the d line,

1258
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 1: then then he had three sacks. That was you know,

1259
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 1: tied for fifth on the team, and he can take

1260
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,160
Speaker 1: a pick to the house. His only pick he took

1261
00:55:55,200 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 1: for a forty plus yard touchdown. So and he forced

1262
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:01,319
Speaker 1: three fumbles this year, so much longer odds. He could

1263
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 1: not only like make statistical impacts in every facet, whether

1264
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 1: it's fumbles, pick, sacks, but he could also be kind

1265
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 1: of that poster boy for if the forty nine ers

1266
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 1: win with a strong defensive performance and you don't quite

1267
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:14,920
Speaker 1: know who to give it to, but you know that

1268
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:17,000
Speaker 1: probably you're not giving it to a guy in the offense.

1269
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:19,000
Speaker 1: I think Warner is the most likely got to be

1270
00:56:19,080 --> 00:56:21,840
Speaker 1: that kind of representative of the whole. So I'm just

1271
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:23,800
Speaker 1: curious as to what you guys think of that.

1272
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:28,160
Speaker 4: One you've made your point. It would be, I think,

1273
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 4: seemly if the vulnerable gentleman speedily brought his speech to

1274
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 4: a conclusion.

1275
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 2: Well, I'm gonna go make dinner and when you're not

1276
00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:38,759
Speaker 2: me now, when you're done the Fred Warner O. Yeah,

1277
00:56:38,800 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 2: but I'll give you I'll give you your answer. You're betting,

1278
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 2: Fred Warner. I'm not an advocate of betting because of

1279
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:46,399
Speaker 2: regreta version, but it's the Super Bowl. MVP you've gone

1280
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 2: on this, this ran about him, So you're gonna put

1281
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 2: a little warner because you will be so upset if

1282
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 2: you don't. But look, it's a lottery ticket that these

1283
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 2: long shots super Bowl vps. You can't model it. You

1284
00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:59,360
Speaker 2: even said something that I thought was really smart and

1285
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:02,200
Speaker 2: not the Fred a lot was smarter than the Fred

1286
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 2: Warner think. But before that you said, look, it's it's

1287
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 2: arbitrary and it is like who you said, she should

1288
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 2: have won it, but he didn't like So it's not

1289
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:12,000
Speaker 2: like you can not only can you not really model it,

1290
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 2: it's not like, all right, if this person gets this

1291
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 2: number of stats, they're gonna win it.

1292
00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:15,960
Speaker 1: Right.

1293
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 2: We mentioned Emmanuel Sanders on he should have he could

1294
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 2: have won it in Super Bowl fifty. Right, it's six

1295
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 2: catches for eighty five yards, but he didn't get in

1296
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 2: the end zone. So von Miller won it. If you're

1297
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:28,280
Speaker 2: gonna play a defender, I mentioned Honey Badger, it's dound

1298
00:57:28,320 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 2: a forty to one. There's no value there, like it's

1299
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 2: seventy five to one. I thought, maybe worth a flyer.

1300
00:57:31,600 --> 00:57:33,919
Speaker 2: But if you're gonna play a defender, take the most

1301
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 2: random one that you also think is really good is

1302
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 2: gonna be in there a lot and can just run

1303
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 2: into a ball, recover a fumble and then a random

1304
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 2: pick six. I mean, no one was talking about Malcolm

1305
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 2: Smith winning it when he won it, right, no one

1306
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 2: was talking about Dexter Jackson. So yeah, I don't I

1307
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 2: don't hate it for a flyer. On the defense of MPP.

1308
00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 1: Let's get into some of these let's go position by position,

1309
00:57:56,800 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 1: and let's get into these player props, and we'll start

1310
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:04,720
Speaker 1: a quarterback. I think this is a really fascinating quarterback matchup.

1311
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 1: We talked about it at the top, and I want

1312
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 1: to just start off by mentioning that, you know, Patrick Mahomes,

1313
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 1: we can bet his touchdown props over one and a half,

1314
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 1: over two and a half, over two. There's a lot

1315
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:17,959
Speaker 1: of different lines out there. Our friends at point bet

1316
00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 1: are once again running our Fade Revel promotion and this

1317
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 1: week our colleague Darren Ravel predicts that Patrick Mahomes will

1318
00:58:27,440 --> 00:58:31,760
Speaker 1: have under two and a half touchdowns, So points Bet

1319
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 1: is boosting the odds on Mahomes having over two and

1320
00:58:34,920 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 1: a half touchdowns from minus one ten to plus one

1321
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:43,320
Speaker 1: twenty five. So you know, Patrick Mahomes is a guy

1322
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 1: that has been throwing three touchdowns in a large percentage

1323
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:50,480
Speaker 1: of games, much larger than any other quarterback. So with

1324
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 1: those odds, I don't I think that it's a pretty

1325
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: solid fun bet that you can make and you'll be

1326
00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 1: fading Revel at the same time. So if you're interested

1327
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 1: in fading Revelt, follow the link in the episode descriptions

1328
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 1: for more details. But let's talk about this Mahomes touchdown

1329
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 1: prop Sean. I'll start with you. Where are you kind

1330
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:14,400
Speaker 1: of leaning as far as at the different thresholds? I guess, like,

1331
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:17,280
Speaker 1: what's your favorite Mahomes touchdown bet, whether it's at one

1332
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 1: and a half, two, two and a half, which one

1333
00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 1: do you kind of like over under into what kind

1334
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:22,920
Speaker 1: of threshold?

1335
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:27,800
Speaker 3: Well, I think I'm probably avoiding this market, but I

1336
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:30,000
Speaker 3: think Revel is on the sharp side here. I would

1337
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 3: say the under two and a half. I've seen like

1338
00:59:32,800 --> 00:59:35,439
Speaker 3: minus one thirty eight out there. I'm showing a little

1339
00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 3: bit of value. I have that going under fifty nine

1340
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 3: percent of the time, and minus one thirty eight implies

1341
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 3: fifty eight, so I'm showing a one percent edge. So

1342
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 3: I think the sharp side is going to be on

1343
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:47,360
Speaker 3: the under, especially when it comes to touchdowns. It's a

1344
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 3: different kind of distribution, So I think you typically find

1345
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 3: under on these markets to galla like Mahomes, those books

1346
00:59:55,000 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 3: are going to be taking a ton of action on

1347
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:58,840
Speaker 3: the over two and a half and one and a half.

1348
00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 3: So if you're going to bet this, just wait until

1349
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 3: Sunday morning when the odds are you know, boosted even

1350
01:00:05,480 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 3: more so that that's what I'll probably do. I'll probably

1351
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,520
Speaker 3: just wait till Sunday to see if the market helps

1352
01:00:10,600 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 3: move this over more and I'll come in under. Hopefully

1353
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:16,760
Speaker 3: it'll get down to like minus one twenty or minus

1354
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 3: one ten. But I think the unders way to go here.

1355
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 1: There are a lot of one and a half out there.

1356
01:00:21,040 --> 01:00:22,960
Speaker 1: And Friedman and I kind of had this argument on

1357
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 1: the series XM radio show that that we do a

1358
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 1: nine to eleven am Eastern on Serious XM Fantasy even

1359
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:33,000
Speaker 1: at one and a half. I've seen the jews so high,

1360
01:00:33,080 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 1: like it's at minus two thirty five, I've seen it.

1361
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 1: What's the threshold that you would bet over one and

1362
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:40,400
Speaker 1: a half for Mahomes touchdown?

1363
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 3: I have it at sixty seven point four percent chance,

1364
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 3: So you know that's that's a fair line of minus

1365
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 3: two ten about Okay, And that's basically all of the

1366
01:00:50,760 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 3: books are kind of in that range. So I have

1367
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 3: a fount of value there that the two and a

1368
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:57,280
Speaker 3: half under is where I've been finding the most value.

1369
01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:01,320
Speaker 2: Okay, Stuck, how you feeling Chief's first and goal at

1370
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:03,920
Speaker 2: the one second a goal one? They're not sneaking Mahomes

1371
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:07,280
Speaker 2: not after bust his kneecap. I mean, so I don't

1372
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:10,800
Speaker 2: know that could end up swinging this bet. And also,

1373
01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:13,600
Speaker 2: you know, giving another touchdown to a guy like Damian

1374
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 2: Williams just something.

1375
01:01:15,280 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 1: He can also run it, but he's not shy about

1376
01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:20,840
Speaker 1: running run it in further Yeah, yeah, yeah, Like if.

1377
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:22,920
Speaker 3: They're on the five yard line, he could run it in.

1378
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:25,120
Speaker 3: I agree, I think they're done giving him a QB

1379
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 3: sneake at the one, but I think heah on the

1380
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:29,200
Speaker 3: five yard line. He does have that now with his

1381
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:31,680
Speaker 3: with his knee one hundred percent where we saw what

1382
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:33,920
Speaker 3: was the last game, he could definitely run it in.

1383
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 3: And that exactly those things go. They hurt him in

1384
01:01:37,160 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 3: this market, all.

1385
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 1: Right, So we're gonna start running through some of these

1386
01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:42,160
Speaker 1: other props. We'll do rapid fire, get get Shawn and

1387
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:44,960
Speaker 1: Stuck's best picks. I'll give some of mine as well.

1388
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 1: UH just wanted to quickly point out that the passing

1389
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:51,320
Speaker 1: yardage props for Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy G generally on

1390
01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:53,439
Speaker 1: the money. I don't see too much value in those,

1391
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:56,640
Speaker 1: Nor do we see much value in the UH in

1392
01:01:56,760 --> 01:01:58,919
Speaker 1: the touchdowns for Jimmy G at one and a half.

1393
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 1: So I think the one we want to talk about

1394
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 1: is the rushing prop because it's it's up to thirty

1395
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 1: two and a half at some books. Stuck, I'll start

1396
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:08,320
Speaker 1: with you. Any thoughts on that one?

1397
01:02:08,800 --> 01:02:11,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think. I mean it's obviously inflated, an inflated number.

1398
01:02:11,600 --> 01:02:13,480
Speaker 2: What is it ten yards more than what it was

1399
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:16,680
Speaker 2: last week? The interesting thing maybe more than that. But

1400
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:19,720
Speaker 2: you know, he had a highlight run, He's run, people

1401
01:02:19,760 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 2: have seen him run, and people want to bet on

1402
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:24,520
Speaker 2: Mahomes doing anything. And you mentioned the passing prop. I

1403
01:02:24,560 --> 01:02:25,880
Speaker 2: don't see a ton of value on it now, but

1404
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:27,720
Speaker 2: I think there might be some value in the under.

1405
01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:29,680
Speaker 2: But I think there's value in the under on Mahomes

1406
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:32,080
Speaker 2: rushing under. But the interesting thing to me is that

1407
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:34,520
Speaker 2: even though sant Fran plays a zone which you would

1408
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 2: think it's not as easy to run because they get

1409
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:40,760
Speaker 2: so much pressure so quickly. It does move the quarterback

1410
01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:42,560
Speaker 2: out of the pocket. That's why you've seen guys like

1411
01:02:42,640 --> 01:02:45,160
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray and a couple other mobile quarterbacks put up

1412
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:48,160
Speaker 2: some good rushing numbers against Sant France. So there are

1413
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:50,480
Speaker 2: gonna be some opportunities for mahomes to run here. But

1414
01:02:50,720 --> 01:02:53,520
Speaker 2: just from a pure numbers perspective, this is inflated. And

1415
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 2: I don't I'm not into as the weeds as much

1416
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 2: as as Sean. It's maybe by like ten yards or so.

1417
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean, I want to kick it to you because

1418
01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:04,120
Speaker 1: I know you do our projections, and I know you

1419
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 1: do kind of see some some value here on this

1420
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 1: prop at thirty two and a half. How do you

1421
01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 1: feel about it?

1422
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I mean stuck hit on it. This is

1423
01:03:12,720 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 3: super inflated. I mean, yes, the previous two games he's

1424
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:18,160
Speaker 3: put up fifty three yards a piece. We know he

1425
01:03:18,240 --> 01:03:21,960
Speaker 3: has rushing upside, but you know his first thirty four

1426
01:03:22,040 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 3: career starts he rushed for thirty more yards five times,

1427
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:28,240
Speaker 3: so that's a fifteen percent rate. You know, It's it's

1428
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:30,320
Speaker 3: a bit too much to kind of say this is

1429
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 3: now his median. So you know, I factored in, you know,

1430
01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:36,760
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers they have struggled against Russian qbs. Obviously,

1431
01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:40,080
Speaker 3: his knees one hundred percent. I think his rushing upside

1432
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:42,480
Speaker 3: is boosted in this game. And I still only have

1433
01:03:42,640 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 3: met twenty five and a half for his median, so

1434
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:47,240
Speaker 3: I have it a sixty point two percent chance he

1435
01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:49,720
Speaker 3: goes under thirty and a half. So I just think

1436
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:51,040
Speaker 3: there's massive value in this market.

1437
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:57,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, And in the Fantasy webs Player Props tool, Patrick

1438
01:03:57,600 --> 01:04:01,480
Speaker 1: mahomes the under where his rushing yards is one of

1439
01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 1: the top graded props that has a bet quality of ten,

1440
01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:08,040
Speaker 1: which have hit historically at a sixty percent rate over

1441
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 1: the last two seasons, so that one might continue to

1442
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:14,600
Speaker 1: go up. So that that's something to keep in mind.

1443
01:04:14,640 --> 01:04:17,080
Speaker 1: I think that that that does offer a ton of value.

1444
01:04:17,080 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 1: All right, let's go rapid fire through some running backs,

1445
01:04:21,520 --> 01:04:24,680
Speaker 1: wide receivers and tight ends. I'll throw out props and

1446
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:27,520
Speaker 1: kick it to you guys, and you just give kind

1447
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:31,160
Speaker 1: of the pick and like a one one sentence synopsis

1448
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:36,680
Speaker 1: of why, I'll start with Raheem Moster first rushing attempt

1449
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:39,760
Speaker 1: over under three and a half yards sean.

1450
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I have that under again, I like him

1451
01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:46,040
Speaker 3: in this matchup. I think he's gonna be the lead

1452
01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:48,520
Speaker 3: back here against the run funnel defense. I have him

1453
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:51,680
Speaker 3: averaging four point sixty four YOURDS prush, but still his

1454
01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:54,400
Speaker 3: median is going to be three, just like all running backs.

1455
01:04:54,560 --> 01:04:56,640
Speaker 3: So I have him going under this let me see

1456
01:04:56,720 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 3: fifty seven percent of time and you get plus money

1457
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 3: on it. So this is a a big bet for me.

1458
01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:04,480
Speaker 1: And sticking with Moster sean over under twelve and a

1459
01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:06,880
Speaker 1: half receiving yards for Raheem Moster.

1460
01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:09,280
Speaker 3: So I like the under on this, and I go

1461
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:11,840
Speaker 3: way in depth in my player prop guide, so check

1462
01:05:11,880 --> 01:05:13,960
Speaker 3: that out. I break it down mathematically how I arrive

1463
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:16,240
Speaker 3: at this. But I have the under hitting sixty eight

1464
01:05:16,280 --> 01:05:18,200
Speaker 3: percent of the time on this on this market, and

1465
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:21,320
Speaker 3: I'm factoring in Coleman, you know, playing very lightly. So

1466
01:05:21,480 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 3: if Coleman's active and healthy, this is only going to

1467
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:27,920
Speaker 3: help this prop even more. So I love this problem.

1468
01:05:28,560 --> 01:05:33,480
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to Damian Williams and I'll give

1469
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:36,440
Speaker 1: a couple at once three and a half receptions twenty

1470
01:05:36,760 --> 01:05:38,640
Speaker 1: nine and a half receiving yards. Stuck.

1471
01:05:39,000 --> 01:05:41,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like the over on a number

1472
01:05:41,840 --> 01:05:44,440
Speaker 2: of Damian Williams props. I also like him just score

1473
01:05:44,520 --> 01:05:47,760
Speaker 2: a touchdown minus I think it's also minus one thirty four.

1474
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:50,520
Speaker 2: It's a little dicey, but it's it's basically just on

1475
01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 2: how I think this game is going to go. So

1476
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:55,560
Speaker 2: like I like them over longest receptions. The numbers are

1477
01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:58,120
Speaker 2: not that far off from what I would expect, But

1478
01:05:58,440 --> 01:06:00,760
Speaker 2: based on this matchup, I think as they get pressure,

1479
01:06:00,800 --> 01:06:02,200
Speaker 2: but Homos gonna get the ball out quick on a

1480
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:04,920
Speaker 2: lot of plays. I also think Reid's gonna have a

1481
01:06:04,960 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 2: couple of screens drawn up for him, so I think,

1482
01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:10,880
Speaker 2: and most importantly, all the questions in the San fran backfield,

1483
01:06:11,040 --> 01:06:13,760
Speaker 2: we don't have them here right Like, I'm confident in

1484
01:06:13,840 --> 01:06:15,880
Speaker 2: the fact that Damian Williams is going to be in

1485
01:06:15,960 --> 01:06:18,440
Speaker 2: the backfield for a lion's share of the plays for

1486
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 2: Kansas City, and I like him the big day out

1487
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 2: of the backfield.

1488
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:25,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I too, also like Damian Williams over three and

1489
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:30,000
Speaker 1: a half catches, Dalvin Cook six catches, and Aaron Jones

1490
01:06:30,080 --> 01:06:33,200
Speaker 1: five catches. I think that San Francisco defense, with the

1491
01:06:33,680 --> 01:06:35,480
Speaker 1: ability to kind of force quarterbacks to get rid of

1492
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:39,480
Speaker 1: it quickly underneath without witzing, is going to add up

1493
01:06:39,520 --> 01:06:41,640
Speaker 1: to a lot of work for Williams. I also like

1494
01:06:42,200 --> 01:06:45,200
Speaker 1: Darwin Thompson under one and a half carries. I think,

1495
01:06:45,960 --> 01:06:48,360
Speaker 1: you know, one carry last week, one snap the week before,

1496
01:06:48,400 --> 01:06:50,800
Speaker 1: in zero carries. I don't think they trust him enough

1497
01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:56,240
Speaker 1: to get multiple carries barring a Williams injury. So I

1498
01:06:56,440 --> 01:06:58,280
Speaker 1: like that one quite a bit as well. Not seeing

1499
01:06:58,360 --> 01:07:02,200
Speaker 1: it as much value on the most rushing yardage prop though,

1500
01:07:02,240 --> 01:07:04,000
Speaker 1: I will say you can find it as low as

1501
01:07:04,760 --> 01:07:07,280
Speaker 1: the mid sixties and as high as the low eighties,

1502
01:07:07,360 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 1: so it's it's an opportunity to middle. Let's go to

1503
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 1: wide receivers Sean the Marcus Robinson twenty six and a

1504
01:07:16,680 --> 01:07:17,840
Speaker 1: half receiving yards.

1505
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:20,120
Speaker 3: Yeah. Ray, But I know you and I love this prop.

1506
01:07:20,440 --> 01:07:22,360
Speaker 3: This is probably one of my favorite props. As I

1507
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:24,920
Speaker 3: mentioned earlier. You know he's been losing playing time to

1508
01:07:25,080 --> 01:07:27,840
Speaker 3: Mikol Hardman, so I think that affects this prop. And

1509
01:07:28,120 --> 01:07:30,840
Speaker 3: you know he had three inexcuse all drops against the Texans.

1510
01:07:30,840 --> 01:07:32,280
Speaker 3: I think that might have a lot to do with it.

1511
01:07:32,600 --> 01:07:34,720
Speaker 3: But again, you know, his medium projection for this is

1512
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 3: sixteen and a half my model, so I have this

1513
01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 3: hitting sixty nine percent of time, and you know, a

1514
01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:41,280
Speaker 3: lot of books are offering down to like twenty and

1515
01:07:41,400 --> 01:07:44,000
Speaker 3: a half. I still like that. I still have it

1516
01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:46,760
Speaker 3: hitting over fifty eight percent of the time even at

1517
01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:48,280
Speaker 3: twenty and a half. But just make sure you get

1518
01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 3: the best number on this. That's that's key for market

1519
01:07:50,960 --> 01:07:52,440
Speaker 3: like this. Every yard matter, so just make sure you

1520
01:07:52,480 --> 01:07:55,760
Speaker 3: get the best number. It's my favorite prop. The under

1521
01:07:56,040 --> 01:07:58,840
Speaker 3: for Marcus Robinson in the fourteen games with Tyreek Kho.

1522
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:02,600
Speaker 3: The median is two targets and the median yardage is nine.

1523
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:04,480
Speaker 1: Now, I don't think that's representative of the sample in

1524
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:06,680
Speaker 1: terms of the yardage, but two targets I do think

1525
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:09,880
Speaker 1: is his media and that would leave him short, well

1526
01:08:09,960 --> 01:08:12,240
Speaker 1: short of twenty six and a half, would put Hi

1527
01:08:12,240 --> 01:08:15,480
Speaker 1: more around sixteen yards. Sean, I'm sticking with you. Emmanuel

1528
01:08:15,560 --> 01:08:19,160
Speaker 1: Sanders longest reception over under seventeen and a half yards,

1529
01:08:19,400 --> 01:08:19,600
Speaker 1: So I.

1530
01:08:19,640 --> 01:08:22,880
Speaker 3: Have that fifty eight percent chance that goes over. You know,

1531
01:08:23,200 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 3: he's had a rough two game stretch, but that that

1532
01:08:25,520 --> 01:08:26,920
Speaker 3: has a lot to do the forty nine Ers only

1533
01:08:26,960 --> 01:08:29,719
Speaker 3: throwing it twenty seven times the past couple of games.

1534
01:08:29,760 --> 01:08:31,800
Speaker 3: You know, with the Niners having to throw more against

1535
01:08:31,800 --> 01:08:34,320
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, there's a lot more upside here, and plus

1536
01:08:34,479 --> 01:08:37,040
Speaker 3: I like this as a corollary bet with my Sanders

1537
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:39,880
Speaker 3: MVP bet, so I like that they kind of line

1538
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:42,479
Speaker 3: up in that regards of if he wins MVP this

1539
01:08:42,680 --> 01:08:45,519
Speaker 3: like they went over So I like this prop with

1540
01:08:45,760 --> 01:08:48,599
Speaker 3: my overall you know prop package, This one lines up

1541
01:08:49,360 --> 01:08:50,120
Speaker 3: George Kittle.

1542
01:08:50,680 --> 01:08:53,240
Speaker 1: Let's go to the tight ends. George Kittle twenty seven

1543
01:08:53,280 --> 01:08:56,920
Speaker 1: and a half yards for his longest reception over under Shawn.

1544
01:08:57,640 --> 01:09:00,439
Speaker 3: Yeah. So I like the under their books. Obviously people

1545
01:09:00,479 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 3: are going to be hammering over on this. Everybody knows

1546
01:09:03,040 --> 01:09:06,519
Speaker 3: Kittle has big playability, the highly reel catch against the Saints,

1547
01:09:06,600 --> 01:09:09,920
Speaker 3: those kind of things. But my model has the under

1548
01:09:10,000 --> 01:09:13,120
Speaker 3: of this going sixty six percent of the time, and

1549
01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:15,320
Speaker 3: I would bet this down to probably twenty four and

1550
01:09:15,320 --> 01:09:16,920
Speaker 3: a half. So I think this is a good value

1551
01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:19,080
Speaker 3: bet where the books are just inflating it due to

1552
01:09:19,240 --> 01:09:20,799
Speaker 3: all the overaction they've been getting.

1553
01:09:21,120 --> 01:09:23,599
Speaker 1: Kelsey and Kittle. There's a lot of props out there,

1554
01:09:23,840 --> 01:09:26,640
Speaker 1: head to head props. Most of us, I think have

1555
01:09:27,000 --> 01:09:31,160
Speaker 1: them projected quite similarly. So why bet Kelsey versus Kittle

1556
01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:36,360
Speaker 1: when you can bet Blake Bell versus Ross Dwelly. I

1557
01:09:36,439 --> 01:09:39,080
Speaker 1: think that's clearly the way you want to bet. If

1558
01:09:39,120 --> 01:09:43,120
Speaker 1: you're a degenerate like me or Shawn Corner or Stuck

1559
01:09:43,200 --> 01:09:45,479
Speaker 1: and Sean, I know you have a thought on a

1560
01:09:45,520 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 1: prop out there. You've seen Blake Bell. They get ten

1561
01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:51,679
Speaker 1: plus yards before Ross Dwelly. It's juiced up to minus

1562
01:09:51,720 --> 01:09:53,640
Speaker 1: two sixty and you still like it.

1563
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:54,160
Speaker 2: Tell us a lot.

1564
01:09:54,400 --> 01:09:56,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one of my favorite bets. And you

1565
01:09:56,920 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 3: know there's a fifty seven percent chance Blake Bell doesn't

1566
01:09:59,520 --> 01:10:02,200
Speaker 3: even get it or it doesn't pass ten yards, but

1567
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:04,639
Speaker 3: he has a forty three percent like he's at least

1568
01:10:04,720 --> 01:10:08,280
Speaker 3: on the field running routes, getting targets, like he's active

1569
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:10,920
Speaker 3: in the game. Russ Welly is just basically put on

1570
01:10:11,040 --> 01:10:13,720
Speaker 3: ice in case George Kill gets hurt. So it's either

1571
01:10:13,760 --> 01:10:15,840
Speaker 3: Blake Bell gets ten yards in this game or this

1572
01:10:16,120 --> 01:10:19,200
Speaker 3: this props push. This is on my favorite props at

1573
01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:22,519
Speaker 3: two sixty Dwelly. I think the only way that Dwelly

1574
01:10:22,640 --> 01:10:25,800
Speaker 3: can get over ten yards is if Kittle's hurt. So

1575
01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:27,600
Speaker 3: just think about the odds on that that would you know,

1576
01:10:27,680 --> 01:10:30,120
Speaker 3: that would be twenty to one odds in my opinion,

1577
01:10:30,200 --> 01:10:32,439
Speaker 3: So this is basically a free bet in my opinion.

1578
01:10:32,720 --> 01:10:34,679
Speaker 3: Blake Bell will either get the ten yards or he won't.

1579
01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:35,759
Speaker 3: When you get your money back.

1580
01:10:35,840 --> 01:10:38,880
Speaker 1: I love it. I know that Blake Bell versus Ross

1581
01:10:38,920 --> 01:10:42,400
Speaker 1: Dwelly props is one of Seawan's favorites and stuck. You

1582
01:10:42,600 --> 01:10:47,280
Speaker 1: also have a pretty obscure prop that you like involving

1583
01:10:47,720 --> 01:10:51,040
Speaker 1: a pretty obscure player in this game.

1584
01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:53,479
Speaker 2: Tell us about it, Well, this is my way to

1585
01:10:53,520 --> 01:10:55,599
Speaker 2: bet the r my Ravens it's in the super Bowl

1586
01:10:55,920 --> 01:10:57,920
Speaker 2: because they didn't make it, and to throw a salt

1587
01:10:57,960 --> 01:11:00,400
Speaker 2: in the wound because he checks the next Raven throssault

1588
01:11:00,400 --> 01:11:01,840
Speaker 2: on the moon. Remember in the podcast a couple months

1589
01:11:01,840 --> 01:11:03,960
Speaker 2: ago when I was saying I don't think the Ravens

1590
01:11:04,000 --> 01:11:05,960
Speaker 2: are going to win it, and I think the Chiefs

1591
01:11:06,080 --> 01:11:09,000
Speaker 2: of the value. Guess who has two thumbs and no

1592
01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:13,080
Speaker 2: Chief's future ticket from that day, this asshole. So anyway,

1593
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:15,200
Speaker 2: I think that use check Look, I heard you guys

1594
01:11:15,280 --> 01:11:18,840
Speaker 2: on your pod talking about I heard Corner mention that

1595
01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:22,280
Speaker 2: you know he likes us check under. I think it

1596
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:24,400
Speaker 2: was like twelve twelve and a half receiving yards, and

1597
01:11:24,400 --> 01:11:26,320
Speaker 2: I think it's been bet down. I bet over nine

1598
01:11:26,360 --> 01:11:28,599
Speaker 2: and a half for seving yards. I like him over

1599
01:11:29,439 --> 01:11:33,880
Speaker 2: catches a touchdown flyer. And here's why, because I get

1600
01:11:33,960 --> 01:11:36,080
Speaker 2: that the math doesn't make sense. You know, he played

1601
01:11:36,120 --> 01:11:38,400
Speaker 2: in what fourteen games this year and only had twenty

1602
01:11:38,520 --> 01:11:42,400
Speaker 2: catches in fourteen games. But I dug a little deeper,

1603
01:11:42,439 --> 01:11:44,280
Speaker 2: and I said, the forty nine ers played so many

1604
01:11:44,320 --> 01:11:46,080
Speaker 2: games where they just didn't need to throw, right, Like

1605
01:11:46,160 --> 01:11:48,040
Speaker 2: I throw out the the playoff games, they weren't thrown

1606
01:11:48,080 --> 01:11:50,040
Speaker 2: to anyone those games. They had a lot of blog games.

1607
01:11:50,120 --> 01:11:52,920
Speaker 2: If I looked at the eight games and use check

1608
01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:54,560
Speaker 2: was hurt for four games this year. So if I

1609
01:11:54,600 --> 01:11:56,840
Speaker 2: look the eight games that he played in that were

1610
01:11:57,040 --> 01:11:59,439
Speaker 2: one possession in the fourth quarter and there was over

1611
01:11:59,560 --> 01:12:02,320
Speaker 2: forty points scored, which I think is a pretty reasonable

1612
01:12:02,320 --> 01:12:06,160
Speaker 2: assumption that this game will be used check he did.

1613
01:12:06,560 --> 01:12:08,519
Speaker 2: He did go two games without a catch, the first

1614
01:12:08,560 --> 01:12:10,640
Speaker 2: game of the year against the Bucks Bucks number one

1615
01:12:10,640 --> 01:12:12,400
Speaker 2: of the NFL in defending backs for what it's worth,

1616
01:12:12,560 --> 01:12:14,479
Speaker 2: and then the first game back from injury, he didn't

1617
01:12:14,479 --> 01:12:16,800
Speaker 2: have any catches. But in the other six he had

1618
01:12:16,880 --> 01:12:19,880
Speaker 2: seventeen catches for two hundred and fourteen yards. He had

1619
01:12:19,920 --> 01:12:22,719
Speaker 2: at least he had at least two catches and four

1620
01:12:23,160 --> 01:12:24,920
Speaker 2: of those six games, so four out of the eight

1621
01:12:24,960 --> 01:12:27,000
Speaker 2: in total, he had at least twenty two yards, and

1622
01:12:27,120 --> 01:12:29,160
Speaker 2: five of the eight in five of the ar he

1623
01:12:29,160 --> 01:12:31,439
Speaker 2: had at least a fifteen yard catch. He had a

1624
01:12:31,520 --> 01:12:34,439
Speaker 2: twenty seven, a nineteen of fifteen, a twenty three, a

1625
01:12:34,600 --> 01:12:37,080
Speaker 2: forty nine yard catch. Huge part of their exposed to

1626
01:12:37,120 --> 01:12:39,040
Speaker 2: passing him in some of these games, and the reason

1627
01:12:39,120 --> 01:12:41,400
Speaker 2: is is they'll get them out down the seam, they'll

1628
01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:44,120
Speaker 2: get them on these wheel routes when teams are off

1629
01:12:44,200 --> 01:12:46,120
Speaker 2: play action, and they just teams will lose them coming

1630
01:12:46,160 --> 01:12:48,800
Speaker 2: down the sidelines. On top of all of that, I

1631
01:12:48,880 --> 01:12:50,600
Speaker 2: think it's a great matchup for him. There'll be so

1632
01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:54,240
Speaker 2: much focus on Kittle and these linebackers can't cover. The

1633
01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:56,640
Speaker 2: Chiefs are twenty in the NFL against running backs. I

1634
01:12:56,720 --> 01:12:59,960
Speaker 2: think early downs they're running back. Their linebackers even worse

1635
01:13:00,160 --> 01:13:02,080
Speaker 2: covering backs. So I think that they're going to have

1636
01:13:02,120 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 2: a couple plays drawn up for use check who's gonna

1637
01:13:05,040 --> 01:13:07,040
Speaker 2: have a chance to hit a big pass bay up

1638
01:13:07,080 --> 01:13:10,200
Speaker 2: the seam or down the sidelines. So my favorite one

1639
01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:12,519
Speaker 2: of the use chet props is over nine and a

1640
01:13:12,520 --> 01:13:15,200
Speaker 2: half yards. I think he gets an explosive reception this game.

1641
01:13:15,680 --> 01:13:17,320
Speaker 2: It's not based on the math, although some of it

1642
01:13:17,439 --> 01:13:18,880
Speaker 2: is looking back at these games that they needed to

1643
01:13:18,960 --> 01:13:20,559
Speaker 2: throw more, which I think they'll have to do here

1644
01:13:20,960 --> 01:13:24,960
Speaker 2: and the matchup, so use check my uh dude Harvard

1645
01:13:25,080 --> 01:13:27,760
Speaker 2: and x rayven. That's where I'm going with the full

1646
01:13:27,800 --> 01:13:28,320
Speaker 2: back props.

1647
01:13:28,760 --> 01:13:32,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think there there's interesting value depending if

1648
01:13:32,479 --> 01:13:34,960
Speaker 1: you can get a good number, maybe like a fifth

1649
01:13:35,360 --> 01:13:38,479
Speaker 1: twenty to one or something for use check on his

1650
01:13:38,920 --> 01:13:41,519
Speaker 1: first reception prop because I could definitely see Shanahan, you know,

1651
01:13:41,640 --> 01:13:44,080
Speaker 1: first play of the game, maybe play action so that

1652
01:13:44,160 --> 01:13:45,639
Speaker 1: the half back is kind of out of the play

1653
01:13:46,000 --> 01:13:47,080
Speaker 1: in use check weeks out.

1654
01:13:47,200 --> 01:13:49,080
Speaker 2: So your numbers to the corner are basically just going

1655
01:13:49,160 --> 01:13:52,480
Speaker 2: on his reception chair, right, which is probably minuscule.

1656
01:13:52,760 --> 01:13:56,639
Speaker 3: Right. Yeah, Well, I was talking about twelve and a half,

1657
01:13:56,760 --> 01:13:59,800
Speaker 3: which I have the under like fifty four percent, and

1658
01:13:59,880 --> 01:14:02,320
Speaker 3: I have the over nine and a half like fifty

1659
01:14:02,360 --> 01:14:06,160
Speaker 3: four percent. So I'm like, if nine and a half

1660
01:14:06,280 --> 01:14:08,080
Speaker 3: is out there, I would like the over. That's how

1661
01:14:08,200 --> 01:14:10,960
Speaker 3: tight this market is. So we're both right, yep, exactly,

1662
01:14:11,479 --> 01:14:11,880
Speaker 3: there you go.

1663
01:14:12,120 --> 01:14:16,240
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to some touchdown props, Sean, I'll

1664
01:14:16,320 --> 01:14:19,280
Speaker 1: kick it to you. There's a lot of touchdown props

1665
01:14:19,320 --> 01:14:22,120
Speaker 1: out there. One of the popular ones is anytime touchdown,

1666
01:14:22,120 --> 01:14:27,839
Speaker 1: which means any any rushing, receiving return, whatever, fumble, recovery touchdown,

1667
01:14:28,320 --> 01:14:31,639
Speaker 1: non passing touchdown. Essentially, who's your favorite in that market?

1668
01:14:31,680 --> 01:14:34,200
Speaker 1: And then who's your favorite in the multi touchdown market?

1669
01:14:34,640 --> 01:14:37,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, to be honest, I don't attack these that much.

1670
01:14:37,720 --> 01:14:42,680
Speaker 3: I analyze all the anytime touchdown numbers and you know,

1671
01:14:43,320 --> 01:14:45,840
Speaker 3: I would probably find more value betting. They know on those,

1672
01:14:46,200 --> 01:14:48,559
Speaker 3: so when they just give you the yes, they're all

1673
01:14:48,640 --> 01:14:50,599
Speaker 3: juiced up and they don't offer much value. The only

1674
01:14:50,680 --> 01:14:52,839
Speaker 3: guy that I can make case for was Deebo Samuel

1675
01:14:53,280 --> 01:14:56,760
Speaker 3: at plus one sixty. I have him closer like plus

1676
01:14:56,800 --> 01:14:59,360
Speaker 3: one forty plus one fifty. Like you mentioned, he has

1677
01:14:59,400 --> 01:15:01,920
Speaker 3: the rushing up side, so I think that he's the

1678
01:15:02,000 --> 01:15:04,439
Speaker 3: guy that I would bet on on this market. And

1679
01:15:04,479 --> 01:15:06,519
Speaker 3: then when it comes to a multi touchdown it's almost

1680
01:15:06,560 --> 01:15:08,160
Speaker 3: the same thing. And if you guys think about it,

1681
01:15:08,320 --> 01:15:10,799
Speaker 3: when you bet on these multi touchdown props, you're probably

1682
01:15:10,880 --> 01:15:13,800
Speaker 3: better off just betting on the MVP market. You look

1683
01:15:13,800 --> 01:15:16,560
Speaker 3: at a guy like Tyry Kill, he's plus four to

1684
01:15:16,600 --> 01:15:20,479
Speaker 3: twenty five for a multi touchdown game and twenty to

1685
01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:22,640
Speaker 3: one at MVP and if you like, if you think

1686
01:15:22,680 --> 01:15:25,760
Speaker 3: about it, if he scores multi touchdowns in the game,

1687
01:15:26,000 --> 01:15:27,679
Speaker 3: like he's already going to be one of the MVP

1688
01:15:27,840 --> 01:15:30,640
Speaker 3: favorites because that's how you kind of take over a

1689
01:15:30,760 --> 01:15:32,880
Speaker 3: quarterback in that market. So I just think, if you're

1690
01:15:32,920 --> 01:15:35,040
Speaker 3: going to bet on a guy to score multi touchdowns,

1691
01:15:35,080 --> 01:15:37,479
Speaker 3: just attack the MVP market. I think you'll have better

1692
01:15:37,600 --> 01:15:38,040
Speaker 3: value there.

1693
01:15:38,280 --> 01:15:41,280
Speaker 1: That is actually a great, a great piece of advice.

1694
01:15:41,360 --> 01:15:42,960
Speaker 1: I did not even think of that, and that is

1695
01:15:43,080 --> 01:15:44,840
Speaker 1: I'm looking at some of them and yeah, they're all

1696
01:15:45,360 --> 01:15:46,599
Speaker 1: longer odds like debo.

1697
01:15:47,520 --> 01:15:50,519
Speaker 3: Debo's like plus eight fifty for two touchdown, not a

1698
01:15:50,640 --> 01:15:53,400
Speaker 3: bad bet, but MVP thirty three to one, and you

1699
01:15:53,400 --> 01:15:56,959
Speaker 3: would just think that in order to get mvpde two touchdowns.

1700
01:15:57,000 --> 01:16:01,759
Speaker 1: Anyways, people rewind that is probably I think the best

1701
01:16:01,920 --> 01:16:05,280
Speaker 1: most valuable piece of advice that that we've had all podcasts,

1702
01:16:05,280 --> 01:16:08,120
Speaker 1: because that is, I'm the numbers are so different and

1703
01:16:08,560 --> 01:16:11,639
Speaker 1: you know, for pretty much across the board, you're getting

1704
01:16:11,720 --> 01:16:14,479
Speaker 1: much better odds with with the MVP. So love that.

1705
01:16:14,920 --> 01:16:16,840
Speaker 2: That's literally most valuable advice too.

1706
01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:18,760
Speaker 1: That's all like, I have to go and make some

1707
01:16:18,840 --> 01:16:22,040
Speaker 1: bets right now, So we're gonna end this podcast before

1708
01:16:22,080 --> 01:16:24,320
Speaker 1: you get out of here. I know one everyone's gonna

1709
01:16:24,439 --> 01:16:27,280
Speaker 1: kind of wonder is the national anthem? I know some

1710
01:16:27,439 --> 01:16:29,719
Speaker 1: some books are posted, some books are going to post.

1711
01:16:29,920 --> 01:16:33,519
Speaker 1: It looks like the median is around two minutes and

1712
01:16:33,600 --> 01:16:38,120
Speaker 1: four seconds for Demi Levado stuck kicking you first over Under,

1713
01:16:38,240 --> 01:16:39,559
Speaker 1: just gut feel? Where are you going?

1714
01:16:40,080 --> 01:16:42,240
Speaker 2: I don't know. I can't find a coin on my desk.

1715
01:16:43,400 --> 01:16:47,080
Speaker 1: There you go, There you go, Sean.

1716
01:16:47,600 --> 01:16:49,400
Speaker 3: I was hoping you guys had insight info.

1717
01:16:49,520 --> 01:16:50,200
Speaker 1: I have no tick.

1718
01:16:50,280 --> 01:16:52,720
Speaker 3: I was hoping you had a lean here. So do

1719
01:16:52,840 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 3: we have any past stats on the over under? On them?

1720
01:16:55,320 --> 01:16:57,040
Speaker 3: I feel like they typically all over.

1721
01:16:56,920 --> 01:16:59,200
Speaker 2: The place, right, aren't they wildly all over?

1722
01:16:59,400 --> 01:17:02,040
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think I would go over because so Demmi

1723
01:17:02,200 --> 01:17:04,880
Speaker 1: just had, you know, she she struggled, you know, through

1724
01:17:05,240 --> 01:17:08,439
Speaker 1: some some personal issues earlier this year, and she just

1725
01:17:08,520 --> 01:17:12,280
Speaker 1: had a Grammy performance where she wrote a song about uh.

1726
01:17:12,680 --> 01:17:16,120
Speaker 1: She performed a song excuse Me that was very personal,

1727
01:17:16,240 --> 01:17:18,960
Speaker 1: very like emotional, and she kind of had to restart it.

1728
01:17:19,080 --> 01:17:22,200
Speaker 1: And I think she's going to be very emotional in

1729
01:17:22,320 --> 01:17:24,200
Speaker 1: this spot, and I think that kind of lends itself

1730
01:17:24,240 --> 01:17:26,479
Speaker 1: to the over. So in general, if I'm looking at

1731
01:17:26,479 --> 01:17:29,920
Speaker 1: a prop like that, I lean over and just in general,

1732
01:17:29,960 --> 01:17:31,800
Speaker 1: I think, you know, these stars want to kind of

1733
01:17:32,080 --> 01:17:33,559
Speaker 1: they want the spot light and they want to kind

1734
01:17:33,560 --> 01:17:35,240
Speaker 1: of basking it. So that's the way I go.

1735
01:17:35,640 --> 01:17:38,360
Speaker 2: I'm too supersisters at them or the coin toss, because

1736
01:17:38,400 --> 01:17:40,600
Speaker 2: it's like, even if I would never bet them for

1737
01:17:40,840 --> 01:17:42,720
Speaker 2: a bet, but if I even just to bet like

1738
01:17:42,840 --> 01:17:44,960
Speaker 2: five dollars, if someone wanted to bet me five dollars,

1739
01:17:45,200 --> 01:17:48,680
Speaker 2: I wouldn't because losing a bet before the super Bowl

1740
01:17:48,680 --> 01:17:51,000
Speaker 2: actually starts, it's like getting the first question on a

1741
01:17:51,120 --> 01:17:53,679
Speaker 2: huge test wrong and then you're like, shit, I don't

1742
01:17:53,680 --> 01:17:56,360
Speaker 2: want to lose any bets before the game actually kicks off.

1743
01:17:56,880 --> 01:17:59,519
Speaker 1: I hear you, And I'll just close it by saying

1744
01:18:00,040 --> 01:18:02,320
Speaker 1: a lot of other props, you know, we obviously couldn't

1745
01:18:02,320 --> 01:18:04,639
Speaker 1: get to all of them. But when we talk about

1746
01:18:04,680 --> 01:18:06,840
Speaker 1: a lot of these props where it's heavily juiced to

1747
01:18:06,960 --> 01:18:09,439
Speaker 1: one side and something not happening, like will there be

1748
01:18:09,520 --> 01:18:11,960
Speaker 1: a safety, no, will there be overtime, no, will be

1749
01:18:12,040 --> 01:18:15,640
Speaker 1: a you know, things like that, Generally people like to

1750
01:18:15,720 --> 01:18:17,840
Speaker 1: bet on things to happen, so you usually see value

1751
01:18:17,920 --> 01:18:20,320
Speaker 1: on the know even if they're heavily juiced. The one exception,

1752
01:18:20,680 --> 01:18:24,720
Speaker 1: a rufous Peabody actually came on the Action Network show

1753
01:18:25,200 --> 01:18:27,680
Speaker 1: on Serious Exam with Matthew Friedman and I and he

1754
01:18:27,720 --> 01:18:29,800
Speaker 1: talked about will there be a missed extra point? And

1755
01:18:29,880 --> 01:18:32,280
Speaker 1: because the total is so high, it's around fifty four

1756
01:18:32,280 --> 01:18:35,800
Speaker 1: to fifty five, expecting about six touchdowns, the missed extra

1757
01:18:35,880 --> 01:18:38,519
Speaker 1: point rate, even if you give it about five percent,

1758
01:18:38,600 --> 01:18:42,080
Speaker 1: which is actually better than average for you know, giving

1759
01:18:42,160 --> 01:18:46,000
Speaker 1: these kickers, given the average kicker, there's a good there's

1760
01:18:46,000 --> 01:18:49,200
Speaker 1: about a thirty percent chance when you start calculating the

1761
01:18:49,240 --> 01:18:51,800
Speaker 1: math and adding up the amount of touchdowns that there

1762
01:18:51,840 --> 01:18:53,920
Speaker 1: could be a missed extra point. Now, obviously there's variance

1763
01:18:53,960 --> 01:18:56,040
Speaker 1: in that number, but that's the one exception to that.

1764
01:18:56,160 --> 01:18:57,880
Speaker 1: So I just wanted to point that out. And I'm

1765
01:18:57,920 --> 01:19:00,439
Speaker 1: seeing fifty six and a half over under for the

1766
01:19:00,520 --> 01:19:03,479
Speaker 1: Chiefs penalty yardage, they're they're they're median for the season

1767
01:19:03,640 --> 01:19:07,439
Speaker 1: fifty three. So that's another interesting one where I'd go under.

1768
01:19:07,560 --> 01:19:10,240
Speaker 2: But uh, and extra points, yeah, Robbie golds Wash, he's

1769
01:19:10,280 --> 01:19:12,800
Speaker 2: gonna miss something in this game. Pal the yards. I'd

1770
01:19:12,840 --> 01:19:15,000
Speaker 2: be careful on that one, just because if the Chiefs,

1771
01:19:15,080 --> 01:19:17,080
Speaker 2: the Chiefs have I expect this's get to be closer.

1772
01:19:17,240 --> 01:19:18,600
Speaker 2: So a lot of games if the Chiefs had a

1773
01:19:18,720 --> 01:19:21,000
Speaker 2: lead and you know they're doing nothing at the end

1774
01:19:21,000 --> 01:19:22,919
Speaker 2: of the game and sitting on it, it's not accounting

1775
01:19:22,960 --> 01:19:25,920
Speaker 2: for that way through. Just throwing that out there.

1776
01:19:26,080 --> 01:19:27,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I don't really have a penalty yards model.

1777
01:19:27,960 --> 01:19:30,479
Speaker 1: I just thought it was kind of a little bit off.

1778
01:19:30,600 --> 01:19:35,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, man, uh that that's actually very good insight. So,

1779
01:19:35,680 --> 01:19:38,040
Speaker 1: as you guys know, Stuck and I have had a

1780
01:19:38,080 --> 01:19:41,479
Speaker 1: little contest going all year. I don't think Stuck expected

1781
01:19:41,640 --> 01:19:43,720
Speaker 1: me to have a five point lead heading into the

1782
01:19:43,760 --> 01:19:46,599
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, but here we are. I'm happy about this. However,

1783
01:19:46,880 --> 01:19:48,519
Speaker 1: I'll give him a chance to time me, even though

1784
01:19:48,560 --> 01:19:50,479
Speaker 1: we usually don't kind of it wouldn't usually be a

1785
01:19:50,520 --> 01:19:53,840
Speaker 1: five point swing, but here here, let's go. It will

1786
01:19:53,880 --> 01:19:57,200
Speaker 1: do three three bets, whatever bets and if you sweep,

1787
01:19:57,479 --> 01:20:00,559
Speaker 1: you get to tie, and uh, we'll well, we'll publish

1788
01:20:00,560 --> 01:20:02,559
Speaker 1: a little article or something kind of breaking it down

1789
01:20:02,600 --> 01:20:04,080
Speaker 1: and see if you guys are check in, because we are.

1790
01:20:04,439 --> 01:20:06,599
Speaker 1: This is going to be the last betting NFL pot

1791
01:20:06,640 --> 01:20:09,160
Speaker 1: of the year. So Stuck, just three bets, your top

1792
01:20:09,200 --> 01:20:11,439
Speaker 1: three bets. Let's draft you get first pick. These are

1793
01:20:11,560 --> 01:20:13,280
Speaker 1: essentially our three best bets.

1794
01:20:13,439 --> 01:20:15,519
Speaker 2: If I get all three right and you get all

1795
01:20:15,560 --> 01:20:17,960
Speaker 2: three wrong, I win all that. You have to at

1796
01:20:18,040 --> 01:20:19,640
Speaker 2: least just get one right, or I have to at

1797
01:20:19,680 --> 01:20:20,640
Speaker 2: least get one wrong right.

1798
01:20:20,680 --> 01:20:23,439
Speaker 1: So I have to go six and oh I shouldn't

1799
01:20:23,640 --> 01:20:30,000
Speaker 1: have the risk of losing. This is prop not much, Okay, Okay,

1800
01:20:30,080 --> 01:20:32,320
Speaker 1: so let's do a draft. Let's do a draft. You

1801
01:20:32,439 --> 01:20:37,040
Speaker 1: start off best bet you check over ten reception yards. Okay,

1802
01:20:37,200 --> 01:20:41,640
Speaker 1: I will go Damian Williams over three and a half receptions.

1803
01:20:41,560 --> 01:20:43,200
Speaker 2: Damian Williams anytime touchdown.

1804
01:20:43,320 --> 01:20:47,680
Speaker 1: Yes, DeMarcus Robinson under twenty six and a half receiving yards.

1805
01:20:48,080 --> 01:20:53,400
Speaker 2: Damian Williams over twenty nine and a half receiving yards.

1806
01:20:54,080 --> 01:20:57,000
Speaker 1: Darwin Thompson under one and a half carries.

1807
01:20:57,840 --> 01:20:58,280
Speaker 2: I love this.

1808
01:21:00,320 --> 01:21:04,479
Speaker 1: The A's already DJ bet. So that's our three Betsize I.

1809
01:21:04,439 --> 01:21:06,040
Speaker 2: Should have put that Dwelly one in there.

1810
01:21:06,600 --> 01:21:09,160
Speaker 1: Yeah right, Yeah, that's a sharp one man. That is

1811
01:21:09,240 --> 01:21:12,840
Speaker 1: going to do it. For The Action Network NFL Betting

1812
01:21:12,920 --> 01:21:17,040
Speaker 1: Podcast for the twenty nineteen twenty twenty season, Thank you

1813
01:21:17,120 --> 01:21:20,840
Speaker 1: all for listening for helping us earn the FSWA Award

1814
01:21:20,920 --> 01:21:23,439
Speaker 1: for Top Sports betting podcast. We couldn't have done it

1815
01:21:23,479 --> 01:21:26,360
Speaker 1: without you. You can follow Sean on Twitter at the

1816
01:21:26,400 --> 01:21:29,120
Speaker 1: Odds Maker. You can follow Stucky at Stucky two, and

1817
01:21:29,200 --> 01:21:31,840
Speaker 1: you can follow me at Chris Raybond can also follow

1818
01:21:31,960 --> 01:21:35,440
Speaker 1: us in the Action Network app at those same handles

1819
01:21:36,080 --> 01:21:39,320
Speaker 1: and stuck real quick before we get out best memory

1820
01:21:40,240 --> 01:21:42,600
Speaker 1: of the season. It was a lot of fun and

1821
01:21:42,680 --> 01:21:44,880
Speaker 1: I really enjoyed it talking every week with you.

1822
01:21:45,400 --> 01:21:48,040
Speaker 2: My favorite part of it was working with you every week.

1823
01:21:48,200 --> 01:21:50,840
Speaker 2: It was a lot of fun. I had a terrible postseason,

1824
01:21:50,960 --> 01:21:53,320
Speaker 2: which I hardly ever do, which sucked for me and

1825
01:21:53,400 --> 01:21:56,599
Speaker 2: anyone who tailed me. It was a great first fourteen

1826
01:21:56,640 --> 01:21:58,880
Speaker 2: weeks of the season where it felt like I couldn't

1827
01:21:58,920 --> 01:22:02,280
Speaker 2: lose in days where everything was going my way. But

1828
01:22:02,439 --> 01:22:05,040
Speaker 2: the highlight, you know, just doing this every week. But

1829
01:22:05,080 --> 01:22:07,600
Speaker 2: if I had to pick one moment, it's Ravens Patriots.

1830
01:22:07,840 --> 01:22:10,320
Speaker 2: It's my biggest bet of the year. It opened plus six,

1831
01:22:10,439 --> 01:22:12,240
Speaker 2: plus four. It was a horrible line early on in

1832
01:22:12,320 --> 01:22:14,479
Speaker 2: the year. It was my team, and as many of

1833
01:22:14,520 --> 01:22:16,000
Speaker 2: you know that listened all year, I'm not biased to

1834
01:22:16,080 --> 01:22:18,160
Speaker 2: my team and I had a lot of money on

1835
01:22:18,240 --> 01:22:20,000
Speaker 2: that game. It was a Sunday night game. I was

1836
01:22:20,040 --> 01:22:23,000
Speaker 2: out for it and they rolled, and I know a

1837
01:22:23,040 --> 01:22:25,519
Speaker 2: lot of other people followed me on that and made

1838
01:22:25,560 --> 01:22:27,360
Speaker 2: out well. So I think that was the highlight of

1839
01:22:27,439 --> 01:22:29,840
Speaker 2: my year. That Ravens Patriots game, which is just the

1840
01:22:30,439 --> 01:22:33,720
Speaker 2: ultimate Bilo sell high spot undervalue early in the year,

1841
01:22:33,720 --> 01:22:36,519
Speaker 2: after a team just was beating up on cupcakes and

1842
01:22:36,920 --> 01:22:39,519
Speaker 2: against an undervalued Ravens team at home in a great spot.

1843
01:22:39,880 --> 01:22:41,360
Speaker 2: I wish I could go back in time and bet

1844
01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:41,880
Speaker 2: even more on.

1845
01:22:41,920 --> 01:22:45,000
Speaker 1: It and like, don't don't get down to yourself. Like, collectively,

1846
01:22:45,040 --> 01:22:48,160
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure we hit around sixty percent of our

1847
01:22:48,200 --> 01:22:49,280
Speaker 1: bets in the six pack.

1848
01:22:49,320 --> 01:22:50,880
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's all I'm hard on myself.

1849
01:22:50,960 --> 01:22:53,240
Speaker 1: Brother. Oh I hear you. We hit quite a few

1850
01:22:53,680 --> 01:22:57,519
Speaker 1: underdog money line part ways. I got the undefeated survivor. Like,

1851
01:22:57,600 --> 01:23:01,000
Speaker 1: we had a good year. Hopefully everyone out there, you know,

1852
01:23:01,240 --> 01:23:03,960
Speaker 1: was able to profit off our picks and not tail

1853
01:23:04,040 --> 01:23:07,439
Speaker 1: us when we were terrible, like me with the Titans again,

1854
01:23:07,600 --> 01:23:09,719
Speaker 1: thank you, guys. I think my favorite moment is still

1855
01:23:10,080 --> 01:23:13,200
Speaker 1: Stuck when you briefly forgot you were married during a

1856
01:23:13,320 --> 01:23:17,639
Speaker 1: Marcus Peters rant. That was very enjoyable and hilarious. But yeah,

1857
01:23:17,680 --> 01:23:20,200
Speaker 1: I really enjoyed it again. Thank you guys for listening.

1858
01:23:20,640 --> 01:23:22,880
Speaker 1: You make us who we are. For you guys interested

1859
01:23:23,000 --> 01:23:25,960
Speaker 1: in more betting content next week, be sure to check

1860
01:23:26,000 --> 01:23:30,960
Speaker 1: out our exhaustive Academy Awards aka the OSCARS Betting Preview.

1861
01:23:31,479 --> 01:23:34,759
Speaker 1: I will be recording that and some other Oscars experts

1862
01:23:34,760 --> 01:23:38,200
Speaker 1: from Action will be joining me plus our XFL season

1863
01:23:38,400 --> 01:23:43,360
Speaker 1: preview pod this Thursday, and are Awesome Wednesday, PGA and

1864
01:23:43,479 --> 01:23:48,680
Speaker 1: Friday College Hoops episodes all season long. Again, it's been

1865
01:23:48,720 --> 01:23:51,479
Speaker 1: a good year. Enjoy the super Bowl. Be sure to

1866
01:23:51,600 --> 01:23:56,599
Speaker 1: listen and download the Action Network podcast on Spotify. Spotify

1867
01:23:56,760 --> 01:23:59,400
Speaker 1: is that new thing. It's where it really helps us

1868
01:23:59,400 --> 01:24:00,880
Speaker 1: the most. If you got go and show us love

1869
01:24:00,920 --> 01:24:03,599
Speaker 1: on there. So if you enjoyed the pod, please head

1870
01:24:03,640 --> 01:24:06,920
Speaker 1: to Spotify listen down with us there. It really helps

1871
01:24:07,000 --> 01:24:10,160
Speaker 1: us out. Appreciate y'all. Good luck on the super Bowl.

1872
01:24:10,680 --> 01:24:12,360
Speaker 1: Let's get this shwe cheers.

1873
01:24:23,960 --> 01:24:25,000
Speaker 2: We're finished talking.