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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p Joe piz Apia,

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Speaker 1: and it's time to look ahead to Week fifteen in

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Speaker 1: the NFL and the sum up. Week fourteen, the Goat

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Speaker 1: lost to mister irrelevant. Every single quarterback seems to be

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Speaker 1: concussed or in the blue tent. And yeah, Jerry Judy

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Speaker 1: called three touchdowns, So if you had that on your

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Speaker 1: Bengo card, I'm sure it was a fun day for

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Speaker 1: you all, but obviously a lot to get to, a

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Speaker 1: lot of injuries, a lot of changes. We've also broken

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Speaker 1: a record for most quarterbacks in a single season in

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Speaker 1: the NFL that are going to be starting for respective

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Speaker 1: NFL teams, and not in a strike year, mind you,

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Speaker 1: this is regular old football with the thirty two teams

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Speaker 1: that we have, So there you go. Lots of history

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Speaker 1: being made and hopefully my friends here will help us

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Speaker 1: make more. Matthew Friedman, Pat Fitzmorris joining me as always

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Speaker 1: here on Betting Pros and gentlemen. I know it was

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Speaker 1: a long Sunday with lots of winding rows a few

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Speaker 1: upsets in between, before we get to looking ahead and

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Speaker 1: turning the page on Week fourteen. We've got one more

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Speaker 1: game left. It's Monday Night football, so let's get after it.

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Speaker 1: Here it's the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: Arizona obviously a team that has struggled to get out

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Speaker 1: of their own way at times in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: We know that the Patriots, you could say the same,

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Speaker 1: certainly offensively having some issues. Yesterday this number was one

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Speaker 1: and a half. Today it is two, so it has

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Speaker 1: moved a little bit here. Of course, New England favored

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Speaker 1: by two on the road, forty three and a half

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Speaker 1: is the number plus one ten on the money line.

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Speaker 1: If you like the Arizona Cardinals, Matthew Friedman will start

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Speaker 1: with you when it comes to Monday night football. Which

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Speaker 1: way are you leaning?

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Speaker 2: I have no faith in anything at this point in

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Speaker 2: my ability to analyze any games after what happened last week,

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Speaker 2: but I have this at point seventy five, so I

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Speaker 2: see value on Arizona. And of course the line has

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Speaker 2: moved against me, which is pretty par for what happened

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Speaker 2: in Week fourteen. I just want to bury Week fourteen

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Speaker 2: and not even think about Monday Night football.

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Speaker 1: Sounds a lot like me last week. I could tell

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Speaker 1: you last Monday I was salty, Joe, Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 1: I was not happy to be here. It was tough.

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Speaker 1: This week was better. Had a lot of Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 1: and Miles Sanders and dfs. That's a story for another time,

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Speaker 1: but it's Morris. It did help. As soon as I

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Speaker 1: saw the weather changes and stuff, I was like, you know,

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Speaker 1: it feels like lots of running the football today. It

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Speaker 1: feels like bet fits Morris. All that aside, Looking ahead here,

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Speaker 1: there has been slight movement, not too much that Jacoby

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Speaker 1: Meyer's out for this game tonight. He will not be participating.

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Speaker 1: We know how bad the Arizona Cardinals are against tight ends.

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Speaker 1: I know today later on the Monday night football live

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Speaker 1: stream at three thirty Eastern and Bogwin, I are going

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Speaker 1: to talk the thing I'm going to be in on

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Speaker 1: this game. It's not the Lions, it's not the over under.

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Speaker 1: It's the Hunter Henry anytime touchdown score. That's the only

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Speaker 1: thing I want to bet, and I want to bet

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Speaker 1: at hard about How about that? Can we agree on that?

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Speaker 3: Today?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? Understandably. I think the Cardinals have given up the

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Speaker 4: most receiving yards, most receptions, most touchdowns, pretty much most

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Speaker 4: everything to the tight end position. So they're very generous

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Speaker 4: in the holiday season. And Hunter Henry is probably going

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Speaker 4: to enjoy his presence tonight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I'm still trying to wrap my mind around that quarterback

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Speaker 1: stat too. I mean, Baker Mayfield on Thursday night kind

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Speaker 1: of set the tone for it was going to be

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Speaker 1: a very strange Week fourteen if you think about it.

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Speaker 1: Looking back now, it seems like ages ago that that

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Speaker 1: game happened, But it wasn't. It was only Thursday, all right.

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Speaker 1: Let's turn the page here, and as always on the program,

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Speaker 1: we were brought to you by bet MGM, the King

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Speaker 1: of sportsbooks. Download the bet MGM app today and don't

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Speaker 1: forget the daily Juice every single day is there for

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Speaker 1: you for all your betting information. Let's kick things off

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Speaker 1: here on another Thursday, this coming Thursday, where brock Perty

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Speaker 1: continues to lead the San Francisco forty nine ers two wins,

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Speaker 1: and here we go nine and four. The forty nine

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Speaker 1: ers are three and a half point favorites on the

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Speaker 1: road against Seattle. Seattle dropping a tough one there to Carolina.

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Speaker 1: I talked about it a lot on Sunday, this being

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Speaker 1: a dangerous game here for Seattle to not to get

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Speaker 1: too ahead of themselves here, and they did and a

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Speaker 1: couple of mistakes later they were on the losing end.

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Speaker 1: So they are home dogs here in this game. Forty

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Speaker 1: three and a half is the number if you like

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Speaker 1: Seattle to win this game plus one sixty. So Pat,

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Speaker 1: let's start with you on this one. There's a night football,

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Speaker 1: short week, a lot of workload for Christian McCaffrey that's

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Speaker 1: not surprising. Is a short week kind of the best

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Speaker 1: medicine though for the Seattle Seahawks team after dropping a

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Speaker 1: game at home to have another shot here, maybe they

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Speaker 1: were caught looking ahead.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know if it's the best remedy. Joe,

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Speaker 4: like one of the nice stories early in the season,

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Speaker 4: one of the surprises I think was the play of

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Speaker 4: the Seattle defense, which we expected to be complete trash

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Speaker 4: this year and really wasn't. But over their last four games,

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Speaker 4: the Seahawks have given up twenty one to the Buccaneers,

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Speaker 4: who obviously are having their issues on offense, forty to

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Speaker 4: the Raiders, twenty three to the Rams, and thirty to

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Speaker 4: Sam Darnold and the Seahawks, So this defense wants a

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Speaker 4: very pleasant surprise is now playing down to expectations. So

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Speaker 4: like the first impression, I saw this line and it's like, Wow,

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Speaker 4: they're really not docking the forty nine ers for having

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Speaker 4: Brock Purty a quarterback that much. But the more I

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Speaker 4: looked at it and the way things have kind of

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Speaker 4: been trending for the Seahawks defensively, I'm wondering if this

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Speaker 4: is you know, enough points, Like I've got it at

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Speaker 4: four and a half rather than three and a half.

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Speaker 4: And I kind of like the over here a bit too,

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Speaker 4: like Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy are making this thing

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Speaker 4: work and you know it's humming. Maybe it'll continue to

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Speaker 4: hum even without Debo. They've still got Christian McCaffrey, who

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Speaker 4: has in fact been all world, Brandon Ayuk, George Kittle,

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Speaker 4: the offensive line has been fantastic, so maybe they keep

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Speaker 4: it going. And Seattle, I just don't like how their

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Speaker 4: season is sort of trending, especially on the defensive side

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Speaker 4: of the ball.

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Speaker 1: It would be shocking to see Deebo play in this

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Speaker 1: game after that injury, that's for sure. So I think

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Speaker 1: we didn't, you know, before we get all the information.

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Speaker 1: I think we kind of rule him out for this one.

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Speaker 1: But it is a short week for mccaffre, who said

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Speaker 1: back to back, really big workload. It's a great matchup

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Speaker 1: here on paper for him against the Seattle defense. Freedman,

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Speaker 1: what are your thoughts about this matchup here? Is there

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Speaker 1: any value looking ahead early in betting? Now?

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I'm the bitter old man who bets Seattle in the

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Speaker 2: look ahead market at plus one and a half.

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Speaker 3: So I hate myself right now. And the thing is I.

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Speaker 2: Can't I haven't adjusted Seattle enough. But I have this

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Speaker 2: at one point seventy five, and it's taken into account.

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Speaker 2: No Deebo Samuel, it's taking into account that brock Perty

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Speaker 2: is not Jimmy Garoppolo. Like I do not care how

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Speaker 2: good he has looked in the past two games. He

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Speaker 2: is still not Jimmy Garoppolo. Like this number was one

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Speaker 2: and a half in the look ahead market. I don't

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Speaker 2: see two points of difference from what we saw this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Like Seattle still looks good. Sorry, Seattle looks bad on defense,

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Speaker 2: but good enough on offense. In San Francisco's defense is awesome.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I'm just I haven't adjusted enough. Like I just know

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna need to go back in. I'm probably not

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Speaker 2: downrating the Seattle defense enough. Like I just generally have

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Speaker 2: this perspective of defense doesn't matter all that much unless

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Speaker 2: your defense is just really really bad, and maybe they're

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Speaker 2: really really bad. And I haven't totally accepted that yet.

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Speaker 2: But this, this number feels too high. That said, I

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Speaker 2: know my number of one point seventy five is too low.

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Speaker 2: I just I know it's too low.

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Speaker 1: It's a lot of affirmations this morning for you. This

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Speaker 1: is this is really something I think we should all.

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Speaker 1: I am extremely till the woods, you know, I think

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Speaker 1: we should do. I should take all your bet slips.

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Speaker 1: We'll go out, we'll light the fire pit, we'll do

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Speaker 1: some chanting, and we'll just kind of burn them all,

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Speaker 1: do some ritualistic healing kind of chanting, and then and

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Speaker 1: then we'll move on to week fifteen. It's okay for you, Minue.

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Speaker 1: We could leave the past in the past. We don't

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Speaker 1: have to bring it with us.

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Speaker 2: I just I gotta say this one point five it's

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Speaker 2: going to do. It's gonna haunt me. This is going

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Speaker 2: to be the worst bet all year that I have,

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Speaker 2: because this line could continue to move to San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: It would not surprise me. If there's got to like six,

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Speaker 2: it would not surprise me either.

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Speaker 1: To be honest, Serenity, Now, I think that is the

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Speaker 1: best possible chant for you to continue on with. Then

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Speaker 1: we got Saturday football, everybody, Yay, I like Saturday games.

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Speaker 1: We got the trio of games starting with the Indianapolis

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Speaker 1: Colts going against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings throwing for

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Speaker 1: five thousand yards in that game against the Lions and

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Speaker 1: still coming up short. Somehow they are four and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites against the Colts though, So yes, this

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Speaker 1: are always those tricky games here though with Minnesota, where

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Speaker 1: this is a game they should win, This is a

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Speaker 1: game they should get back on track. We always know

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Speaker 1: those seem to be the most tenuous for this team.

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Speaker 1: Forty seven and a half is the number plus one

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Speaker 1: eighty if you like the Colts. But I gotta say

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for Minnesota to handle their business as trappy

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Speaker 1: and dangerous as that field. Friedman, When you're looking ahead

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Speaker 1: at this line here at the four and a half,

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Speaker 1: where did you have it in your model? I'm curious.

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Speaker 1: Did you have this right on the button or did

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Speaker 1: you have Minnesota favored by more?

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Speaker 2: This is terrible. I again hate myself. I have this

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Speaker 2: at two point seventy five. I haven't bet it though,

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Speaker 2: because I just I know, I know, I need to

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Speaker 2: make some more adjustments on this cause, like I do

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Speaker 2: not have.

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Speaker 3: Any faith in the cold.

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Speaker 2: That said, the market seriously downgraded the Vikings after what

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Speaker 2: we saw this past week, and I mean they are

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Speaker 2: I don't want to say fraudulent, but they looked they

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Speaker 2: looked bad.

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Speaker 3: They just they looked bad.

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Speaker 2: And they had a lot of empty yardage, like a

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Speaker 2: lot of calories without any protein in it. And I

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Speaker 2: don't know, I don't have any faith in the Colts

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Speaker 2: being able to exploit that, but I certainly don't have

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Speaker 2: any faith in the Vikings at four and a half.

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Speaker 1: All right, how about you, Pat, when you're looking ahead

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Speaker 1: to this kickoff on Saturday, do you think that forty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half is tantalizing? You think the Minnesota

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Speaker 1: Vikings maybe four and a half is too much on them?

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Speaker 1: What do you think?

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Speaker 4: I'll say fraudulent. I don't mind using that word. I've

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Speaker 4: kind of been using it for a while and now

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Speaker 4: the Vikings have actually been outscored by their opponents this

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Speaker 4: season collectively, which you know, belied by their ten and

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Speaker 4: three record. Yeah, the Colts, though, they've won one of

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Speaker 4: their last seven games, and you know, like any hope

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Speaker 4: of a bounce from Jeff Saturday, I think you know

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Speaker 4: that's kind of looking like a mirage after that Raiders,

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Speaker 4: that unexpected win against the Raiders a few weeks ago. Yes,

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Speaker 4: the Vikings did get exposed to some degree in Detroit,

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Speaker 4: but this line feels even more respect disrespectful towards the

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Speaker 4: Vikings than I thought that Detroit line seemed. But that

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Speaker 4: Detroit line turned out to be right. I just I

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Speaker 4: don't know if I can give the Colts the same

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Speaker 4: sort of respect I have for the Lions. We at

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Speaker 4: least we know can score like I'm I don't think

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Speaker 4: anyone is intimidated by this Colts offense, and I do

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Speaker 4: have a little inclination about the over here, Joe. There

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Speaker 4: have been forty nine or more points scored in four

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Speaker 4: of the vikings last six games. This does feel like

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Speaker 4: an overspot.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore and Cleveland is the four to thirty Eastern game

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Speaker 1: on the Saturday Slate. Cleveland looking better I think than

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Speaker 1: they did in week thirteen. Again, the bar was very low.

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Speaker 1: The Baltimore Ravens perhaps had another quarterback because now Tyler

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Speaker 1: Huntley was down a short week. We'll see if Lamar

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Speaker 1: is healthy enough to play. We don't know yet, but

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Speaker 1: right now it stands that the Baltimore Ravens are two

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Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs going to Cleveland, which feels

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Speaker 1: about right to me. Pat. I don't know if by

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Speaker 1: Saturday you know where we're going to be at with

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Speaker 1: this quarterback situation. They did get JK. Dobbins back. The

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Speaker 1: numbers thirty nine and a half. It's a low total

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Speaker 1: to begin with here, plus one twenty. If you like

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Speaker 1: Baltimore for the upset, to me, you either go right

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Speaker 1: to the plus one twenty Do you bet that? Or

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Speaker 1: you bet the under and you stay away from this spread.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that that's the way to make money

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Speaker 1: on this game. But Pat, how do you see it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? I think that's it. Joe, Like, what kind of

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Speaker 4: position do we want to stake out with Lamar Jackson here?

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Speaker 4: And I kind of want to stake out. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I feel like if Lamar is not playing, this should

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Speaker 4: be more like three three and a half for the Browns,

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Speaker 4: and if Lamar was playing, like I think the Ravens

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Speaker 4: should be favored by like a field goal or close

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Speaker 4: to it. So I kind of went to take that

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Speaker 4: position just in case Lamar comes back this week and

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Speaker 4: feel like I'm getting a lot of value and maybe

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Speaker 4: take it with the points. But you make a compelling

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Speaker 4: case about taking the money line too, Joe, Like Deshaun

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Speaker 4: Watson was a little bit better in the second start,

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Speaker 4: but still really inefficient. Yeah, we've we've kind of seen

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Speaker 4: this Brown's running game go belly up in the last

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Speaker 4: three or four weeks, like real quietly, it has not

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Speaker 4: been working as well as it had throughout the season.

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Speaker 4: I guess the people who of Nick Chubb in fantasy

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Speaker 4: can attest to that. Cleveland's twenty seventh in defensive DVOA.

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Speaker 4: So maybe even if it is Tyler Huntley or I

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Speaker 4: forgot the name of the third stringer Anthony Brown, Anthony Brown,

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Speaker 4: thank you, you know, maybe they can maybe they can

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Speaker 4: move it a little on Cleveland even if they lose

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Speaker 4: their first two quarterbacks for this one and hid an

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Speaker 4: advantage for the Ravens here they're first in DVOA on

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Speaker 4: special teams. That unit's been giving them like this little

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Speaker 4: sneaky advantage all year. So I kind of like the

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Speaker 4: Ravens here, want to grab it and cross my fingers

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Speaker 4: that Lamar comes back and all of a sudden, this

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Speaker 4: that looks terrific.

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Speaker 1: Friedman, I'm jumping on the plus one twenty here, jumping

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Speaker 1: on it right now. If you get Huntley back, if

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Speaker 1: you get Lamar back, those are two possibilities there where

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Speaker 1: I think Baltimore immediately becomes the team to win this

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Speaker 1: football game. Just a much better defensive unit to the

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Speaker 1: Browns are lacks of baysicle on defensive tackling. Sometimes is

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Speaker 1: the effort level, it's just not there. What do you

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Speaker 1: think about this line too? Maybe you see it differently.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I do see it differently.

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Speaker 2: And that's even with a pre significant downgrade, largest downgrade

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Speaker 2: on the week for the Cleveland Browns. I'm just super

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Speaker 2: skeptical now of what we've seen out of them two

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Speaker 2: straight weeks. And I would assume that Deshaun Watson, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of like quote unquote continues to improve and shake

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Speaker 2: off the RUSS but like it's not as if this

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Speaker 2: offense is going to be anything close to what you know,

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Speaker 2: the most optimistic Browns fans would have hoped with Deshaun

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Speaker 2: Watson at quarterback. That said, I still have this projected

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Speaker 2: at four, but that is assuming no Lamar Jackson, and

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Speaker 2: I think I don't know. I think that's more of

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Speaker 2: a safe assumption than not. Given the estimated timeline and

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Speaker 2: given that it's still a shorter week. I think there

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Speaker 2: is a chance that we see Huntley return for this game.

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Speaker 2: Like I think he's in the concussion protocol, but that

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean he actually had a concussion, and it seemed

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Speaker 2: like that was kind of like the way it was

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Speaker 2: being phrased after the game. So I'm assuming that there's

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Speaker 2: a decent chance he actually plays in this game. But

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Speaker 2: that said, I still think there's a pretty significant drop

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Speaker 2: from Lamar Jackson to Huntley. I think that's like at

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Speaker 2: least four points, maybe five points. So even if you

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Speaker 2: take that into account, if Lamar Jackson plays, I believe

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Speaker 2: you guys are right. The Ravens, no doubt should be

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Speaker 2: favored in this game with Jackson plays, But I just

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Speaker 2: don't think he's going to play.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 1: I still think even with Huntley. The Ravens are gonna

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Speaker 1: find a way to win this football game, especially on defense.

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Speaker 1: So screw the numbers, give me the money line here.

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Speaker 1: Just win out right, Just just win, Baby of Al

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Speaker 1: Davis night game, Saturday night fever for Buffalo in Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be called in Buffalo on a Saturday night

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Speaker 1: in December. Miami's going to travel there. Tyreek Hills ankle

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Speaker 1: got injured. He was icing it, then he was running

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Speaker 1: on at as best he could. He was still able

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Speaker 1: to dance. So we're not exactly sure what the status

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Speaker 1: is today of that ankle, but they are seven point

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Speaker 1: underdogs heading to Buffalo, probably as they should be. The

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Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills continue to kind of scratch and claw their

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Speaker 1: way to victories, not always the prettiest victories, but victories nonetheless,

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Speaker 1: and what's become a very competitive AFC East forty five

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Speaker 1: and a half is the number plus two fifty on

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Speaker 1: the money line for the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins lost

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Speaker 1: two in a row here, Friedman, what are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on that? Do you think Miami's finally gotten figured out?

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Speaker 1: Because it looked like you were really forcing Tua to

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Speaker 1: do some things that he wasn't comfortable with yesterday, and

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Speaker 1: it might be a signal where people are starting to

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Speaker 1: pick up on the tendencies and game planning against Tua

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Speaker 1: because he was not sharp yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that might have been part of it.

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Speaker 2: They're also without their right tackle on Jackson. They did

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Speaker 2: have left tackle toront Armstead come back, but they're not

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Speaker 2: healthy on the offensive line, or like optimally healthy on

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Speaker 2: the offensive line, and you know entered Tyreek.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there is part of it.

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Speaker 2: And there is just a significant difference between Tua at

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Speaker 2: home and Tua on the road. And you know, now

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00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 2: again we see two on the road, and I think

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Speaker 2: this is like, is this the third straight game that

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Speaker 2: we have the Dolphins on the road, and so it's

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Speaker 2: it's not an optimal.

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Speaker 1: Two in a row. He was on the West Coast,

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Speaker 1: so that was that's for sure. So yeah, this might

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Speaker 1: be three straight road games.

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Speaker 2: You're right, Yeah, So it's not an optimal situation for

359
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Speaker 2: the Dolphins with the travel, especially going into the cold.

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Speaker 2: I have this at seven point seven to five, so

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Speaker 2: I'm pretty close to the line here of seven. I

362
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Speaker 2: haven't bet it yet. If I were to take a side,

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Speaker 2: it would probably be Buffalo. That said, like they have

364
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Speaker 2: not been able to close out games against the spread.

365
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Speaker 2: Like they've won games, but they haven't been winning with margin,

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Speaker 2: and so I think this line is probably where it

367
00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 2: should be.

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Speaker 1: Great point there by Freeman had about the margin perhaps

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Speaker 1: being a little too big. Do you see that possibly

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Speaker 1: being the case here where you're comfortable Buffalo against the

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Speaker 1: w but the seven's a little bit too big of

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Speaker 1: a number.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's kind of where I am too. I mean,

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Speaker 4: for a team as offensively potent as the Dolphins, seven

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Speaker 4: does seem like a lot of lumber at first glance,

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Speaker 4: especially when you consider that the Dolphins beat the Bills

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Speaker 4: twenty to twenty one to nineteen back in Week three.

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Speaker 4: But then you look at that game a little more closely,

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Speaker 4: and the Bills outgained the Dolphins four hundred and ninety

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Speaker 4: seven yards to two hundred and twelve. But you know,

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Speaker 4: Josh Allen, despite throwing for four hundred yards and two touchdowns,

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Speaker 4: he was sacked four times and lost to fumble. So

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Speaker 4: Miami just kind of hung around on that game. In

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Speaker 4: that game and pulled out the win. It wasn't really

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Speaker 4: kind of an impressive game where they outplayed the Bills,

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Speaker 4: So I don't know. I'm with Freedman. It seems like

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Speaker 4: there's not much value on either, you know, either with

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Speaker 4: the spread of the total here.

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Speaker 1: All right, before we moved to the Sunday games, just

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Speaker 1: remind everybody if you're watching on the YouTube channel and

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00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 1: you should subscribe to the YouTube channel because if you

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00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,880
Speaker 1: haven't already, we're giving away and Isaiah Mackenzie Buffalo Bill's

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00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 1: mini helmet, so it's the time to do that. It's

394
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 1: autograph thanks to our friends at Pristine Auction dot com.

395
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 1: So subscribe to the Betting Pros channel, drop a comment

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00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: in the video, then the little comments section there on

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00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 1: the YouTube.

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Speaker 3: That's it.

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Speaker 1: That's all you gotta do, and click that little belt

400
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 1: to it goes ding so you get the notifications if

401
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 1: you're the big winner. And of course every time a

402
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,119
Speaker 1: piece of content drop, so very easy, subscribe, comment like

403
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 1: the video, very easy things to do, and the Isaiah

404
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,920
Speaker 1: mackenzie helmet can be yours. Let's kick things off here

405
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:39,640
Speaker 1: on Sunday one o'clock Eastern Carolina Panthers coming off of victory,

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers coming off a loss at home to the Ravens.

407
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,639
Speaker 1: The Panthers are two and a half point underdogs at

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Speaker 1: home to the Steelers, which feels about right. Forty is

409
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:51,600
Speaker 1: the number if you like the Panthers to keep the

410
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 1: train rolling with Sam Darnold. Well, it's plus one eighteen

411
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,439
Speaker 1: on the money line for them. So obviously, the injury

412
00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 1: to Kenny Pickett yesterday, we had to see Mitchell trebiz

413
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,199
Speaker 1: Ski play football again, pat and that's never something I

414
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,320
Speaker 1: like to do. But regardless, that's where we're at. Yet

415
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 1: another injury at the quarterback position last week. So do

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00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 1: you see any early value when you look at this

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00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,199
Speaker 1: game between CAROLINEA and Pittsburgh Because I know a lot

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00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 1: of people see this game want to run right past it.

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00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,120
Speaker 1: But should they? Should they spend a little bit more time.

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00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 2: On Actually I just I want to jump in really quick.

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00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 2: As a point of order. The Panthers are now favored

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00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 2: in this game. Favored by my apologies.

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00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 3: It's flipped.

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00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,239
Speaker 1: It was two and a half and it flipped. That

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00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,439
Speaker 1: is my apology, Thank you very much. Freeman. I was

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00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 1: pulling up looking at the sheet number instead of betting

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00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,920
Speaker 1: pros number. Usually I do both back to back. There

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00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 1: I did not because I was doing reads, trying to

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Speaker 1: give people helmets. I just want to give people things.

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Speaker 1: It's the Christmas season. But yes, thank you very much.

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00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,920
Speaker 1: So let's reassess this. My apologies, minus two and a

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00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,639
Speaker 1: half on the Carolina Panthers side, it's flipped. I guess

433
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 1: the new question is, is that a little bit of

434
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 1: an overreaction here, Fitz.

435
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,160
Speaker 4: No, that's kind of the way I see it too,

436
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,639
Speaker 4: And maybe you know, like I've got it at well

437
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 4: maybe a little better. So I've got it as Pittsburgh.

438
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 4: What yeah, Pittsburgh by one and a half.

439
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,920
Speaker 1: Okay, no, anyway, so Pittsburgh is now plus one twelve

440
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 1: when the money line and the number two it went

441
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: from forty to thirty eight and a half. That is

442
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,679
Speaker 1: also moved in the last twenty four hours.

443
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,879
Speaker 4: All right, so wait, wait, sorry, what do we have

444
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 4: this at on betting pros right now?

445
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 1: What happens is Matthew Friedman is going to play quarterback

446
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 1: for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm going to play quarterback for

447
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 1: the Panthers, and it's minus seventeen that Friedman wins.

448
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:33,919
Speaker 3: That's what's gonna be.

449
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,919
Speaker 1: No, what's going on in betting pros? The new consensus

450
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 1: is Carolina two and a half point favorites at home.

451
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 1: Thirty eight and a half is the over under plus

452
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 1: one twelve for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win. If you

453
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 1: like that.

454
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think there's a little bit of value

455
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 4: maybe on Pittsburgh. Now. It seems like even if Trubisky plays, Like,

456
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 4: do we really think Trubisky is a significant drop off

457
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 4: from Picket. I think it's pretty much a lateral move there.

458
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,439
Speaker 4: And the Steelers have won their last two rogue games.

459
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 4: You know, they haven't taken care of world beater teams.

460
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 4: They beat the Colts and the Falcons, but they also

461
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 4: did knock off the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week one,

462
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 4: so they've shown the ability to go out on the

463
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 4: road and put a good game together. You know, I

464
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 4: would have liked the under at this opening line, but

465
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 4: now I see that it's moved down a little bit.

466
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 4: I mean, both of these teams are better on defense

467
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 4: than they are on offense. You know, the Steelers twenty

468
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 4: first in offensive DVA thirteenth on defense, Panther's thirtieth on offense,

469
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,360
Speaker 4: twenty first on defense. So I do think this one

470
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 4: is probably going to stay under, But you know, if

471
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 4: it's thirty eight and a half, as it wasn't DraftKings

472
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 4: this morning or thirty nine. I don't know if there's

473
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 4: a great deal of value there either, So you know,

474
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 4: no strong feelings on this one for me, all right for.

475
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 1: Eve been any strong feelings on you as this line

476
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:53,959
Speaker 1: has flipped in the last twenty four hours.

477
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, on the total, I haven't projected at thirty eight

478
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 2: point one, so you know, I guess in theory a

479
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 2: little bit value there, but I have it at pick them,

480
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: and that's you know, with the assumption that Kenny Pickett

481
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 2: is I don't know, like a point a point and

482
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 2: a half better than Mitch Trubisky, which I don't think

483
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 2: we can make that assumption, but that's still you know,

484
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 2: trying to make the assumption, and assuming we see Trubisky

485
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: in this game, I still have this as a pick them,

486
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 2: So I think that there's value here on the Steelers.

487
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 3: You know, who historically have done well is underdogs.

488
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell

489
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,560
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Speaker 1: promo code betting Pros. That's one word betting pros when

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00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 1: you sign up today. Terms and conditions apply Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Misissipien, Abada,

496
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, puert Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC,

497
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 1: West Virginia, Wyoming, and Ontario only. Must be twenty one

498
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 1: years or older to wager nineteen or older. In Ontario,

499
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500
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Speaker 1: bill requirements. Rewards issued is non with withdrawable free bets

501
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: on site. Credit Free bets expire seven days from insurance

502
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: excludes Michigan dissociated persons. Please gamble responsiblely. Gambling problem called

503
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: one hundred next step in Arizona twenty one hundred five

504
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: to two four seven zero zero in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana,

505
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: and Nevada, Wyoming or Virginia one one hundred and tw

506
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: seven zero seven one seven for confidential help. In Michigan

507
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 1: one hundred gambler Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey or West Virginia

508
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa one hundred nine

509
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,719
Speaker 1: eight one zero zero two three puert Rico called eight

510
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: seven seven eight h op E n Y or text

511
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 1: hop E n Y. In New York, call or text

512
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Red Line at one eight hundred eight nine

513
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:29,719
Speaker 1: nine seven eight nine in Tennessee or called one eight

514
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 1: eight eight seven seven seven nine six nine six Mississipi

515
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 1: and Ontario. You have questions, are concerns, doctor, gambling or

516
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 1: something close to you, Please contact Connects Ontario at eight

517
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 1: six six five three one two six zero zero to

518
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: speak to advisor free of charge. Sports betting is void

519
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 1: in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, and Utah and other states where

520
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: prohibitive and promotional offers is not available in Nevada and

521
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 1: New York. And now back to the action, Moving on

522
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 1: to the next game here, the Philadelphia Eagles were favored

523
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: by eight against Chicago yesterday. That number is now moved

524
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 1: this morning to nine, so another change there. Forty nine

525
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: is the number in the over under game, and then

526
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 1: plus three twenty on the money line. The physic Chicago

527
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 1: Bears this one obviously in Chicago. Here the Eagles look

528
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 1: like the the krem de la Creme of the NFC

529
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 1: right now, which, again, the bar might be set a

530
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:10,679
Speaker 1: little lower with some of these teams in the way

531
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: they played in recent weeks. But you got to give

532
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 1: a lot of credit to Jalen Hurts. They are twelve

533
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: and one. They are absolutely crushing things right now. Is

534
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: this another game here, Freedman where they just literally run

535
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:21,360
Speaker 1: over their opponent?

536
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 2: Maybe the I mean, the one area where that defense

537
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,679
Speaker 2: for the Eagles is weak is against the run, and

538
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 2: you know, with Jalen sorry, with Justin Fields, you know,

539
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 2: presumably healthy coming out of the buy. That is the

540
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 2: one area where the Browns, sorry, the Bears, might be

541
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 2: able to exploit.

542
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 1: It's week fifteen, everybody here, this is what happens. It's

543
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: been like the holidays come, these things are going on.

544
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: We're just trying to do the podcast to the best

545
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 1: of our abilities today.

546
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 4: That's where we're at.

547
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 1: I mean, the three cups of coffee, like, this is

548
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: where we're at here.

549
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 2: Survive, survive and maybe thrive, but just survive advance.

550
00:24:58,920 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 3: I think that's clear.

551
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 2: It's the snowboards at nine I have it at seven

552
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 2: and a half, So in theory, there's some value here

553
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 2: on Chicago, but like the difference between seven and a

554
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 2: half and nine isn't massive. But you know, with justin

555
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: fields like there's I don't know, he's always got the ability,

556
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 2: I think because of his rushing capability to cover.

557
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 3: But the real thing here is the over. Like the

558
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 3: Bears are just a dead over team.

559
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: And unless there is any weather issues, I think that's

560
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,479
Speaker 2: the only thing that would give me pause with okay

561
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 2: wind Chicago December, you know, like potential for any type

562
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 2: of like inclement elements that might put this to the under.

563
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,439
Speaker 2: But if not anything like that, I think this is

564
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 2: over here. Forty eight and a half I think is

565
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 2: the number, and I've got it projected more like closer

566
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: to fifty.

567
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: Pat With these kind of games, I was worrying about

568
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 1: the letdown, Like there's a big game against the Giants

569
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: and division opponent. You know you're getting up for those

570
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: games and then you're getting on the road going to

571
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 1: Chicago and a team like, yeah, we're way better than

572
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 1: the Bears, and those are all the trappy spots. Now

573
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: to the Eagles credit, they have maneuvered through some of these,

574
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 1: they've also fallen prey to one of them against the

575
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. Once we're kind of looking ahead a little

576
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,919
Speaker 1: bit too much, not taking another team seriously, Perhaps that

577
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 1: was the best thing that could happen to them, because

578
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: I think it was a bit of a lesson that

579
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 1: being said, justin fields has Friedman pointed out, I mean,

580
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: he's a special player capable of doing special things. Is

581
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: the nine a tricky number where maybe we like the

582
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 1: side of the Bears on this one, especially because there's

583
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 1: a chance that as the week goes on, the MVP

584
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: chatter continues for Jalen Hurts, this number grows to ten.

585
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 4: No, I disagree with Friedman on this one. I think

586
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 4: it should be nine and a half. And I looked

587
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 4: at that and immediately wondered whether that was enough. Whether

588
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 4: the Eagles should be favored by double digits here, even

589
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 4: though it's on the road. I don't think we're going

590
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 4: to see a letdown. The Commanders actually have a good defense.

591
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 4: The Bears do not have a good defense. I mean

592
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 4: this is a really really bad defense. They're thirty second,

593
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 4: dead last in defensive DBOA. The Bears have love six

594
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 4: straight and in those six games, they have given up

595
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 4: forty nine, thirty five, thirty one, twenty seven, thirty one

596
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 4: and twenty eight points. They are getting torched, blow torched

597
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 4: every week, and now they are facing an absolute juggernaut

598
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 4: of an offense that can cut you up on the

599
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 4: ground or through the air. So I love the over

600
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 4: here and I like the Eagles to cover the big number.

601
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 3: I'm with Pat.

602
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 1: I think the over is the one I'm looking for

603
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: the most here. Forty nine and the over. I'm gonna

604
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: take that for sure, especially with fields back healthy. Kansasity Chiefs,

605
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: which should be an absolute crush here. They are fourteen

606
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: point favorites against the Houston Texans. Houston Texas did show

607
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 1: up though last week with multiple quarterbacks again, lots of

608
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 1: quarterbacks playing. There's a theme here going on the NFL.

609
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 1: It's like Jimmy gets a play, a chance to play,

610
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:50,479
Speaker 1: Johnny gets a chance to pay, everybody gets a chance

611
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: to play quarterback. It's fun. So the Houston Texans obviously

612
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 1: still one win team, regardless, they should be a crush.

613
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: We all believe that forty seven is the number. It

614
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: is plus five seventy five for the Houston Texas to

615
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 1: upset the Chiefs. Pat Look, we all know what the

616
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 1: calculus of this game is. The question is can the

617
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 1: Kanca Chiefs cover this fourteen or do they continue to

618
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 1: let teams hang around in games too long? Because it

619
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 1: seems to be an awkward trend the last few weeks.

620
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I'm not as tilted as Friedman is this morning.

621
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 4: I'm plenty tilted about the Chiefs Froncos game, which Friedman

622
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 4: and I were on the opposite ends of yesterday. And

623
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 4: you know, I still think I was on the right

624
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 4: side of that one, or at least I did win.

625
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 4: The Chiefs went up twenty seven to nothing. But Kansas

626
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 4: City has crushed me as a big favorite many times

627
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 4: in the past, and I keep going back to that

628
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 4: well for some stupid reason I can't explain, So I

629
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 4: am refusing to bet the Chiefs is a big favorite again.

630
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna turn my nose up at this game

631
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 4: and walk away. And I think we've seen the folly

632
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 4: of like the big spread, like picking on Houston with

633
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 4: them darn near knocking off the Cowboys straight up in

634
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 4: Dallas yesterday. I'm not going to jump on any more

635
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 4: of these spreads that you know, treat it like an

636
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 4: SEC non conference game where it's Georgia going up against

637
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 4: Youngstound State. But Houston is not Youngstound State. You know,

638
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 4: they can hang with a professional football team here. So

639
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 4: I no interest in this game whatsoever, not even in

640
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 4: the total I'd freed.

641
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 1: When you're smirking, does that mean you have interest or

642
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 1: you agree with Pat?

643
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 3: Yeah?

644
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: I mean I agree with everything that Pat said. And

645
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 2: I'm still the moron who bet this at case minus fourteen.

646
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,959
Speaker 2: And I know, I know, I know that the Chiefs

647
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: do not historically cover at big favorites. The thing is,

648
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 2: I bet this in the look ahead market. Under this theory,

649
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: whatever happened in week fourteen, there was no chance this

650
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 2: number was going under fourteen. But there was a chance

651
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 2: that it would go up if the Texans got blown out.

652
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: If the Chiefs blew out the Broncos, this number could

653
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: have opened at seventeen. And so that's why I bet it.

654
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: I have it projected right now at fifteen point two five.

655
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 2: So you know, theory, I think it should be above fourteen.

656
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 2: I don't see it getting below fourteen even now. I

657
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 2: don't see Texans money coming in because that just does

658
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 2: not exist. But there could be there could be action

659
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 2: that drives this number up.

660
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: Okay, next one on this Okay, sorry, two quick follow

661
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 1: up points.

662
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 4: I'm gonna make one really slow follow up point I

663
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 4: forgot to make about the Bears game. I did check

664
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 4: the weather Friedman since I'm here in the Chicago area,

665
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 4: and for next Sunday it's looking partly cloudy, high of

666
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 4: thirty degrees, so whether you know, a little chili, but

667
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 4: really not a factor unless there's a lot of wins.

668
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 4: So as for the Texans, maybe I'm interested in betting

669
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 4: the under here. The Texans haven't had a game go

670
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 4: over forty seven points since Week seven, since they got

671
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 4: blown out by the Raiders, so they've been kind of

672
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 4: an under team lately. It released an under team to

673
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 4: a number this big, and you know, maybe they can

674
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 4: pull the Chiefs into a mud wrestling match.

675
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 2: Here's one thing I will say quickly about this. We

676
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 2: have the chief playing their fourth game on the road

677
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: out of their past five games, which is just sort

678
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: of like a killer stretch. But they're in a dome,

679
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 2: and like mahomes, and a dome has historically just dominated,

680
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 2: so like that that is one of the things that

681
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 2: like gives me some hope of them covering the larger number.

682
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 4: And never mind, never mind what I said about the

683
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 4: under I forgot about the Dome's dome factor with my home.

684
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 4: Forget I said anything.

685
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: Hey, no mind, Patrick Madomes. Let's go to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

686
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: Now this line has moved too. Yesterday it was six

687
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: and a half, but after Trevor Lawrence's studing performance there

688
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: in the upset against Tennessee, gritty gutty performance, now it's

689
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 1: moved to five. So they are five point underdogs against

690
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys heading to town. Forty six and a

691
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: half is the number plus one ninety on the money line.

692
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, Freedman, if there was ever a

693
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 1: spot here where I was looking for what the upset

694
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 1: is of the week, and I wanted to put a

695
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 1: nice chunk of chains on the plus one ninety that

696
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: I'm getting right now on the consensus line of betting

697
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: pros on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win a game. I

698
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: like this one. Trayvon Walker getting to the quarterback, Trevor

699
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 1: Lawrence looking really sharp here the Dallas Cowboys looking odd.

700
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: I would say yesterday in that game in terms of

701
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 1: making mistakes at times. You know, the Cowboys are a

702
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: weird team because as good as they can look on

703
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: certain plays, as bad as they can look on some others.

704
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: And that's kind of the ening with it is the Cowboys,

705
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: And if you have too many of the latter, you

706
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 1: put yourself in danger of losing football games. What do

707
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: you think of this line? Or there is this a

708
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 1: giant trap?

709
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 3: No?

710
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I haven't projected at six. But the thing is,

711
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 2: I know that there is a wide range of outcomes

712
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: here based on the injuries that the Cowboys have incurred,

713
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 2: and so, yeah, the Jags are pretty healthy. Travon Walker

714
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: did have an ankle injury in Week fourteen, so that

715
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 2: is something to monitor, but it doesn't seem as if

716
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 2: that's hugely serious. And he's the only player really for

717
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 2: that team who's dealing with some injury issues. Cowboys are

718
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 2: without two of their starting cornerbacks and maybe a third

719
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 2: because Trevon Diggs is dealing with a thumb injury. Right

720
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 2: tackle Terrence Steele looks like he's dealing with the potentially serious,

721
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 2: potentially like season ending legue injury. Number two tight end

722
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 2: Jake Ferguson, who actually gets some decent run in that

723
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,479
Speaker 2: offense and two tight end sets he's dealing with a concussion. Like,

724
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 2: this is not a healthy Cowboys team right now, and

725
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 2: so it would not surprise me if we saw this

726
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 2: line continue to move towards the Jags.

727
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 1: Fitz, do you want to get in early before this

728
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: line continues to move maybe towards Jacksonville.

729
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 4: I do show. I love looking at this line and

730
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 4: seeing the possibility of betting against Mike McCarthy as a

731
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 4: road favorite, Like I'm really anxious to make that bet.

732
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 4: There are not a lot of games that I love.

733
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 4: I really like this game because I want to make

734
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 4: that bet. I know it's not full proof. I mean,

735
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 4: Dallas can be really tough, but we have seen Trevor

736
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 4: Lawrence really turn a corner in recent weeks, Like he

737
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 4: has gone five games without an interception, and you know,

738
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 4: based on what we saw from him last year that

739
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 4: would have seemed almost inconceivable. And he's going to be tested.

740
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 4: He's got the Cowboys this week and then the Jets

741
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 4: the following week. But as Friedman said, the Cowboys really

742
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:20,919
Speaker 4: have some key injuries in their secondary, So I don't

743
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 4: know if this is the same sort of Cowboys pass

744
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 4: defense we've been seeing for most of the season, So

745
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 4: I do like Jacksonville. I think I'm going to take

746
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 4: the points and probably put a money line bet down

747
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 4: on this one, and I like the over here. The

748
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 4: last three Jaguars games have produced fifty five, fifty four,

749
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 4: and fifty eight points. Their opponents for two of those

750
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 4: games were the Ravens and Titans, so it's not like

751
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 4: those are really shootout style teams, and yet the Jaguars

752
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 4: have sort of accelerated the pace with even some pretty

753
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 4: good defensive teams.

754
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 1: Week fifteen means the debut of another quarterback, Desmondrinter is

755
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: going to get his start here in the NFL is

756
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: first one as a real This number was three and

757
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 1: a half on the side of the New Orleans Saints

758
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 1: coming into yesterday. Today it is now four, so the

759
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints are four point home favorites, which I

760
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: got to tell you, I am not a fan of

761
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 1: the Saints pat I feel no comfort in them whatsoever.

762
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 1: Forty three is the number here on this one if

763
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: you like Atlanta plus one seventy of the money line.

764
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: But I always feel like the expectations in that first

765
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 1: game for a quarterback. Typically it's that first game you

766
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 1: want them before there's more tape on them and you

767
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: know what they're trying to do. He's had a whole

768
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: extra week to prepare. I think Atlanta could possibly hang

769
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 1: in this game, dare I say even win it. So

770
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 1: I'm on the Atlanta side of this game personally, and

771
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people automatic like to fade

772
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: the rookie at his first start, but to me, that's

773
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 1: where you jump on them. That's where the value is.

774
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 1: It's the second and third start where then you start

775
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 1: to know what's going on with that guy, and then

776
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 1: you can start the game plan pretty well and stop

777
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: the tendencies. What do you think though about Atlanta New Orleans.

778
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 4: I gotta say, Joe, the Saints have been one of

779
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 4: my more successful betting teams. I've sort of wavered and

780
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 4: been able to at the right time, but I don't

781
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 4: feel like I know where they are at right now,

782
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 4: so I'm kind of not eager to keep going back

783
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 4: to the well on the Saints. And I've got this

784
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 4: at Saints minus four, so I don't see any real

785
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 4: value here based on my product projection. I do see

786
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 4: value on the under and part of it the quarterback situation.

787
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 4: You know, the Falcons have a rookie quarterback making his

788
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 4: first start. The Saints have scored sixteen or fewer games

789
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 4: or sixteen or fewer points in four of their last

790
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 4: five games, so their offense not exactly hitting on all

791
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 4: cylinders either. And you know this, this rookie quarterback who

792
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 4: really not regarded as a lights out passing prospect. So

793
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 4: you know this. When they played in Week one, there

794
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 4: were fifty three points scored Saints Pete the Falcons twenty

795
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 4: seven to twenty six. But that was a much different game.

796
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 4: Jamis Winston threw two touchdown passes to Michael Thomas for

797
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 4: the Saints in that game, so totally different quarterbacks. Now,

798
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 4: I sort of like the under in this one in

799
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 4: a game where you know, a rookie quarterback against a

800
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 4: struggling offense.

801
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: Freedman, your thoughts here on Desmond Ritter's debut and any

802
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 1: confidence whatsoever in the Saints, who are now four and nine,

803
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: by the way.

804
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: Well, to to Fitz's point, the line here has been

805
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 3: kind of interesting. It opened at forty one and a

806
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 3: half last night.

807
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 2: It's been bet up all the way to I mean

808
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:26,840
Speaker 2: all the way to forty three, but it's it's moved

809
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: up a little bit, and so at that number of

810
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 2: forty three, I probably would be interested like fits and

811
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 2: taking the under here.

812
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 3: Ah Man, I like the Saints here.

813
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 2: It feels wrong because the Saints have been really bad

814
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 2: this year and the strength of the team, or what

815
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 2: was supposed to be the strength of the team, their

816
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 2: defense has been really inconsistent.

817
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 3: But you know, Joe, to your.

818
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 2: Point of the Falcons having the buye, the Saints are

819
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 2: also coming off of the by as well, and they

820
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 2: were starting to get healthy entering the bye, and so

821
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 2: there's a chance that Marshall Lattimore returns for this game.

822
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 3: Safety PJ.

823
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 2: Williams like, there's a chance they could be like their

824
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 2: fully functional, healthy self on defense coming out of the

825
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 2: buy And if that's the case, I really want to

826
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 2: take them against the Falcons.

827
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 3: So I have this projected at five.

828
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 1: All right, next game here, the Detroit Lions are on fire,

829
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, that's right, the Detroit Lions, and they're

830
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 1: gonna go play the New York Jets next. Now, look,

831
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 1: they have won two in a row. They probably you

832
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 1: could argue you should have won three in a row,

833
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,799
Speaker 1: because they should have won that game on Thanksgiving Day.

834
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 1: It was in their grasp, not once, but twice they

835
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: did not. But they have got a ton of weapons.

836
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 1: Everybody's catching balls. Penny Sewell caught a ball yesterday, Boys

837
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 1: and girls. That's how crazy things got in Detroit. They

838
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 1: are basically going to pick him here with the Jets,

839
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: Mike White and company. They are minus one point favorites

840
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: at home. Friedman, it felt that this was an older

841
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 1: reference here, but it felt like shades of Willis Reed

842
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 1: coming back and Mike White coming back for the injury.

843
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 1: I thought for a seat and he might lead them

844
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,720
Speaker 1: to a victory there as he stumbled onto the field,

845
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 1: But it was not meant to be. The Jets obviously

846
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 1: are a much different team here with decent quarterback play

847
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,399
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco. Not that answer. Forty six and a half

848
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 1: is the number you're getting minus one to ten on

849
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: both these teams. Of the money line, you kind of

850
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: have at it right now because it's so close. Is

851
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: there any value at all to be had on this game?

852
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 3: I think so. I think this line continues to move.

853
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 2: This is like one of the few look ahead bets

854
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 2: that I made that actually turned out well for me,

855
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 2: So maybe it means that it's going to.

856
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: Be horrible or it's coming up actual today and the.

857
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 2: Actual way that this game plays out. But the Lions,

858
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: I have to sit a pick them, and I think

859
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 2: this line will ultimately move and that they will be

860
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: favored by the time we see this game kickoff. You know,

861
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 2: Mike White dealing with the ribs injuries, like multiple shots

862
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 2: where it's like, wow, how is he? How is he

863
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 2: still in the game, and ultimately Joe Flacco was playing.

864
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: It wouldn't be a surprise if we did see Flacco play.

865
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I think we see Mike White, but I

866
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 2: think we see him in that sort of like it's

867
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 2: like the Tony Romo situation from a decade ago, where

868
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 2: he was like playing through the ribs injuries and he's

869
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 2: got like the extra padding that you know, kind of

870
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 2: immobilizes him. I could see like as as statuesque as

871
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 2: Mike White kind of already is an even more statuesque

872
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 2: version of him who's just totally unable to navigate the

873
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 2: pocket Detroit. Their defense is getting better recently, and yeah,

874
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 2: their offense, like with the mon Ross ain't Brown there

875
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 2: and like Gared Goff is like maybe the hashtag future

876
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 2: for the quarterback position there for for the Detroit Lions,

877
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 2: which is kind of amazing. Yeah, I have, I have

878
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 2: had to pick them, but if I had to lean

879
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 2: in a direction in terms of how I would project it,

880
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: I would have the Lions favored.

881
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 1: Now that all being said, as good as Mahomes is

882
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,280
Speaker 1: in the dome is as bad as Jared Goff sometimes

883
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 1: is outside. I like to call him an outside cat.

884
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 1: That's what Jared GoF He's I'm sorry, he's an indoor cat,

885
00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:59,720
Speaker 1: Jared Goff, That's what he is. He's the indoor cat

886
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: you don't want to deal outside. He doesn't do well

887
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,879
Speaker 1: out there. He's got a ton of options though. Now

888
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 1: Jameson Williams is healthy, he's got him on Raw, He's

889
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 1: got DJ Chark, He's got all these weapons here. Seems

890
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 1: like a lot for the Jets to handle. But we

891
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,919
Speaker 1: keep saying that the Jets keep shutting down offenses left

892
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: and right. Fits What do you make of this game here,

893
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: because this seems like one of the trickier ones on

894
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:20,240
Speaker 1: the slate.

895
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 4: Quite the contrast with the Lions having averaged thirty two

896
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 4: point two points over their last five games, and the

897
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 4: Jets having allowed fifteen point eight points since Week five. So,

898
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 4: you know, do we see the Lions sort of turn

899
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 4: this into the shootout they're comfortable playing. Do we see

900
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 4: the Jets pull the Lions down and turn this into

901
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:47,399
Speaker 4: you know, a rock fights? So I don't know, I'm

902
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 4: on the opposite side of Friedman here. I actually think

903
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:52,280
Speaker 4: the Jets should be favored by two and a half.

904
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 4: And I don't know, I've been sort of a sucker

905
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 4: for the Jets all year. Maybe it's just pandering to

906
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:00,840
Speaker 4: our buddy Tom Viola former home most of the Sunday

907
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 4: Morning betting pros livestream. But going into week fourteen, the

908
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 4: Jets ranked ninth and overall DVA and the Lions rank thirteen. Like,

909
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 4: you know, straight up impartial measure, Jets deem to be

910
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 4: the better team, So why would they be an underdog

911
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 4: at home to the Lions or just a one point favorite?

912
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 4: Like I think there's a little bit of value with

913
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 4: the Jets, and there's no real drop off to Joe

914
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 4: flat from White to Flacco in my opinion. Like we

915
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 4: saw that the Jets move the ball and put up

916
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 4: points early in the season with Flacco. Yes, Flacco is

917
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:36,359
Speaker 4: totally capable of torpedoing a bet on the Jets in

918
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 4: any game. If he has one of those games where

919
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:40,799
Speaker 4: he's just going to throw three four interceptions and be

920
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 4: completely terrible get sacked seven times, you know he can

921
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 4: let your betting slip on fire single handedly. But I

922
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 4: do think the Jets should be favored by more than

923
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 4: they're being favored right now. I think we're seeing the

924
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 4: Lions get too much credit for beating the fraudulent Vikings.

925
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 4: And there's that word again, fraudulents.

926
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 2: One quick thing here to counter fits his point. The

927
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 2: injury situation with the Jets just it bears a little

928
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 2: bit of watching. So defensive tackle Quinn Williams, he's dealing

929
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 2: with the calf injury. I'm assuming he's probably fine, but

930
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 2: he is pretty important to what they're doing on the

931
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,399
Speaker 2: defensive line. And then this is a kind of underrated one,

932
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 2: but Corey Davis left with a concussion and I'm kind

933
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 2: of skeptical he's going to return. And it's not that

934
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 2: he on his own is all that important to the offense.

935
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 2: But when he's not there, they shift Elijah Moore out

936
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 2: and they so they don't use him in the slot.

937
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 2: They use him more on the perimeter, which like that's

938
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 2: not the best location for him, and then you have

939
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 2: Braxon Barrios on the field, and so like an offense

940
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 2: that doesn't function as well as it probably should to

941
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 2: begin with, is like incredibly suboptimal without Corey Davis.

942
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 1: There, excellent point there on the Corey Davis injury. Next

943
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 1: one here, we don't have a line right now on

944
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos Arizona Cardinals, so we can kind of

945
00:43:58,280 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 1: skip over that right now. We do have the uncertain

946
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 1: of Russell Wilson. Thirty nine is the over under on

947
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: this one. We're still at the Cardinals yet to play.

948
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 1: I want to skip ahead to the New England Patriots

949
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 1: and the Las Vegas Raiders here. Las Vegas coming off

950
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 1: a terrible loss to the Rams. They should have absolutely

951
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 1: won that game. It was in their sphere to beat

952
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield and the Rams. You've been there for two days. Nonetheless,

953
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,359
Speaker 1: this game is practically to pick them two. They are

954
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,439
Speaker 1: one point favorites at home. Forty four and a half

955
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 1: is the number minus went in on the money line

956
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 1: for either team. This is another game fits it's very

957
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 1: close it's very tight. Do you see any value here

958
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: with this at all?

959
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 4: I see value with the Patriots. I think they should

960
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 4: be a pick them, or maybe the Patriots is a

961
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:40,319
Speaker 4: small favorite. The Raiders did circle the wagons after the

962
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 4: bad loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week ten, and

963
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 4: then they rattle off three straight wins. Can they circle

964
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 4: the wagons again after an even worse loss to the

965
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 4: Rams in a ridiculous giveaway of a game. I'm not

966
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 4: betting on it. I think maybe it'll be quitting time

967
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 4: for the Raiders after that one, and so, you know,

968
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 4: like a Bill Belichick team, they get stronger as the

969
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 4: season goes on. And I know they're gonna be on

970
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 4: a short week after playing on Monday night, and I

971
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 4: know it's a West Coast game for them and East

972
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:15,240
Speaker 4: Coast team. I do want to find out, maybe before

973
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 4: I put my money down on the Patriots, if they

974
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 4: are in fact staying on the West Coast rather than

975
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 4: you know, making the long cross country flight twice in

976
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 4: a span of six days. But I'm inclined to bet

977
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 4: the Pats.

978
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: Here, all right, freedom, how about you?

979
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 2: I see slight value on the Raiders here, but I'm

980
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 2: not betting it and by slight like so the lines

981
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 2: one I have it at one point seventy five. Like,

982
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 2: I'm just I don't want any part of this game.

983
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:46,359
Speaker 2: This is totally disgusting. You have the Patriots to fit

984
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 2: this point, you know, on the back to back road

985
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,879
Speaker 2: games on short rest, I imagine that they stay out

986
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 2: on the West Coast. You have the Raiders with you know,

987
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 2: three extra days of rest. So like, I think there

988
00:45:57,440 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 2: are a number of factors that kind of point towards

989
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:01,840
Speaker 2: the Raids, but like, I don't want to touch this team.

990
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:05,240
Speaker 2: I said that after they lost to the Jeff Saturday Colts,

991
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 2: and I was like, I'm never betting on this team

992
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 2: for the rest of the season. And then you know

993
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:10,319
Speaker 2: idiot that I am. I did it, and I'm just

994
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 2: I'm not doing it again. I want no part of

995
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 2: this team.

996
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 1: There you go, We're learning, You're on the fly. Tennessee

997
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: Titans are learning how to lose. Last couple of weeks,

998
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 1: the Chargers look much different with Mike Williams and Keenan

999
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 1: Allen both healthy in that line of Herbert slinging the

1000
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:24,399
Speaker 1: ball over place. They are two and a half point

1001
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Titans. Forty six and a

1002
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 1: half is the number in the over under plus one

1003
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: thirty on the money line. Titans seem to be having

1004
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 1: a lot of issues here of late. Friedman to me,

1005
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 1: I'm actually looking at this number and I feel like

1006
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,320
Speaker 1: this should be bigger, that the Chargers should be favored

1007
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 1: by more after what I saw last night from them

1008
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 1: and what I've seen the last two weeks out of Tennessee.

1009
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 1: But what do you think?

1010
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 3: I have it right around where it is.

1011
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 2: I have it at two point twenty five, so you

1012
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 2: know I lean slightly towards the Titans. But you know

1013
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 2: there's a chance that I haven't adjusted enough given what

1014
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 2: we saw out of the Chargers. That's it, Like, I

1015
00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:59,800
Speaker 2: don't want to overadjust because they're still dealing with the

1016
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 2: no significant defensive injuries.

1017
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 3: Sure, and I'm assuming.

1018
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 2: That they get some of those guys back, but I

1019
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 2: haven't fully counted that into my projections yet.

1020
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 3: But really, I have this basically where the market is.

1021
00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 1: I just don't believe in the Titans ability to stop

1022
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: anyone throwing the football on them, and that's very dangerous

1023
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: when you have a full compliment of healthy wide receivers

1024
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: of that ILK and that's why I in my mind

1025
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 1: you asked me this number should be three and a half.

1026
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: So I'm on the Charger side, no doubt. Where are

1027
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 1: you at right now in the early look ahead fits.

1028
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, Joe. The Chargers playing with a full compliment of

1029
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 4: wide receivers for the first time all season, and the

1030
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 4: Titans bad time to be without Christian Fulton if he

1031
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 4: can't come back this week. And you know, Denika Autrey

1032
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 4: their edge rusher, one of their edg rushers. I was

1033
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 4: I had a first row seat on the Titans bandwagon

1034
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,279
Speaker 4: for much of the year, but they have slammed on

1035
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 4: the brakes and sent me crashing through the windshields the

1036
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 4: last couple of weeks. Like now it seems like the

1037
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 4: Titans are getting too much respect with this line being

1038
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:04,800
Speaker 4: you know, a field goal or less. Here They've lost

1039
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 4: three straight and there was no shame in a four

1040
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 4: point loss to the Bengals in Cincinnati, but then they

1041
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 4: got just completely crushed by the Eagles and then lost

1042
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:17,720
Speaker 4: at home to the Jaguars by two touchdowns. Like maybe

1043
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 4: the season has taken a really bad turn here for

1044
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:24,240
Speaker 4: the Titans. So I don't know, I'm not seeing much

1045
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 4: value on either side or total for this one. So yeah,

1046
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna walk away.

1047
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: Perhaps the Bengals will just put Tom Brady in the

1048
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 1: Bucks out of their misery this week. Three and a

1049
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 1: half point home underdogs, the Bucks are and they should be.

1050
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals looking good again, Joe Burrow continues to, you know,

1051
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 1: just show why he is a special quarterback. Forty two

1052
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 1: and a half is the number plus one forty five

1053
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:52,240
Speaker 1: on the money line. Now, Cincinna dealing with some injuries too, obviously,

1054
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 1: the te Higgins injury, Tyler Boyd injury, so they are

1055
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 1: down some folks. They did get Joe Mixon back, but

1056
00:48:57,840 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 1: fits when you're looking ahead of this line here the

1057
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 1: three and a half on Cincinnati, that feels about right.

1058
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 1: Do you see any value here early on on the

1059
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:06,279
Speaker 1: forty two and a half or on the spread.

1060
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 4: A little bit of value on the spread, Like I

1061
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,879
Speaker 4: think the Bengals should maybe even be favored by four here,

1062
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 4: so I might take them. And I keep fruitlessly betting

1063
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 4: overs on Buccaneers games, and I don't know why, and

1064
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 4: like every time it should be, let that be a

1065
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:27,359
Speaker 4: lesson to you. I seem to get back on them

1066
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 4: and I'm looking at the Bengals and you know, in

1067
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 4: their last stretch of eight games where they've won seven

1068
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 4: of them and they've been terrific. They've been averaging twenty

1069
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 4: eight point four points a game over that stretch. The

1070
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 4: defense has not been lights out during that stretch where

1071
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,239
Speaker 4: they've gone seven to one. They're giving up twenty two

1072
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 4: points a game, so basically over fifty points on average

1073
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 4: in the last eight Bengals games. But man, the Bucks

1074
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 4: have scored more than twenty two points once. No, they

1075
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:57,879
Speaker 4: haven't scored more than twenty two points since Week four,

1076
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 4: and they've averaged fifteen point eight. It's the points a

1077
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 4: game over their last nine. I mean, this offense is

1078
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:07,840
Speaker 4: just like they can't do anything in the red zone

1079
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 4: if they happen to get there.

1080
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 1: No, they that is very clear.

1081
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just gonna walk away from this total. Even

1082
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 4: though the Bengals are urging me to bet the over,

1083
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna, like not keep betting on overs in

1084
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 4: Buccaneers games.

1085
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 1: That's fair enough, or even do you feel the same way.

1086
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 2: I have a three point seventy five on the spread,

1087
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 2: but it's Bengals are nothing for me, Like there's no way.

1088
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 2: I would be betting on the Bucks in the spot,

1089
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 2: even though like the trend, the trend seer in me

1090
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:35,839
Speaker 2: guys like, oh, tom Brady off lost.

1091
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:37,319
Speaker 3: Tom Brady's an underdog tom Brady.

1092
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 2: But it's like I don't want any part of I

1093
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 2: don't want any part of this, this Buccaneers team. If

1094
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 2: you know, if the overhits, it's because the Bengals score

1095
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,279
Speaker 2: just a ton of points. I don't think it has

1096
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 2: anything to do with the Bucks scoring, you know, doing

1097
00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:55,320
Speaker 2: their own part to get.

1098
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 3: The over here. So I would I would be taking.

1099
00:50:57,600 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 2: If if you're interested in the over, I would just

1100
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 2: be on the Bangals.

1101
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 1: The Washington Commander Sunday Night Football four and a half

1102
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: point favorites over the New York Giants. Forty is the

1103
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 1: number plus one eighty if you like the Giants to

1104
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 1: win outright. These teams are seven to five and one

1105
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: the second time they played, now in the last two weeks. Friedman,

1106
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:16,760
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on this familiarity in the contempt

1107
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 1: between these two teams.

1108
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 2: I'm wrong, I'll just I have it at two and

1109
00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:27,840
Speaker 2: a half. But I'm I'm probably wrong here. Fits would

1110
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 2: you like.

1111
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 1: To add to that?

1112
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm on the other side, and I have no

1113
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 4: more confidence, Like I think Washington should be more like

1114
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 4: a five point fait. But I thought that last time too.

1115
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,879
Speaker 4: I bet Washing and when they played that tie and

1116
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 4: you know, with the total right around forty and I'm

1117
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 4: having tied twenty twenty the last time they played, I

1118
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 4: don't see any value on the total. I think it's

1119
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,359
Speaker 4: about right. So this is not a game I'm really

1120
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 4: interested in. I mean, it's gonna be it'll be a

1121
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 4: good game, but I'm not interested in betting it.

1122
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 1: Sorry, well, I don't know if you'll be interested in

1123
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:01,360
Speaker 1: Monday night football then, because the Los Angeles Rams at

1124
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 1: four to nine will take on the Green Bay Packers

1125
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 1: at five and eight, another game that looks so good

1126
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,399
Speaker 1: on the schedule back in August, not so much now.

1127
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 1: Seven and a half point favorites, though the Green Bay

1128
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:12,359
Speaker 1: Packers are at home, coming off of by forty one.

1129
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:15,720
Speaker 1: Is the over under here? The Rams plus two seven

1130
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:19,399
Speaker 1: five fits. I'll start with you here with green Bay.

1131
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 1: Obviously this number makes sense, but is it a little

1132
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 1: too large here? Because I've seen that move from seven

1133
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,280
Speaker 1: and a half to eight now in the last twenty

1134
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 1: four hours.

1135
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:30,720
Speaker 4: Seven and a half and eight are a little too small,

1136
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 4: I think, Joe, And it seems like it's giving the

1137
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 4: Rams too much credit. And you guys know, I am

1138
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 4: not a Packers homer and now a very mediocre team.

1139
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 4: Many times I bet against them more than I bet

1140
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 4: on them this year. But a southern California team going

1141
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 4: to Green Bay for a standalone night game in mid December,

1142
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 4: it's gonna be cold in Green Bay. Like even if

1143
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:56,799
Speaker 4: we get a and I gave Friedman the weather cast,

1144
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 4: if forecast, if it's gonna be twenty nine degrees here

1145
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 4: Sunday during the day in Chicago, it's gonna be about

1146
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 4: twelve degrees up in Green Bay on Sunday night for

1147
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 4: the Los Angeles Rams.

1148
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, taking shots, calling them soft, that's what you're doing.

1149
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:14,959
Speaker 1: You're calling them soft here.

1150
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 4: We don't know if Aaron Donald's gonna be back, you know,

1151
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:21,439
Speaker 4: just like this is a good spot for the Packers here,

1152
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 4: I think, very comfortably, Freedman.

1153
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 1: All the hand warmers are packed, the scarves, they've packed,

1154
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 1: the gloves, the whole thing. So do you think the

1155
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 1: Rams have any shot to cover this number? You want

1156
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:32,800
Speaker 1: to let it get bigger and then bet the Rams

1157
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 1: because honestly, I'm gonna My argument on the other side

1158
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 1: is I've seen Aaron Rodgers playing these conditions last couple

1159
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:39,880
Speaker 1: of years in the playoffs, and he hasn't looked all

1160
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 1: that great either. Yeah, people don't like the cold, trust me,

1161
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:43,359
Speaker 1: I'm old.

1162
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:44,880
Speaker 3: I don't like the cold. Yeah.

1163
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 2: Okay again, I've said it multiple times in show I'm

1164
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 2: the moron who bet this when it was nine, because

1165
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:54,320
Speaker 2: it was nine in the look Ahead market on Thursday

1166
00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 2: when the Rams played, and it's like, oh, the Rams

1167
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 2: are just gonna get totally trucked through, starting Baker Mayfield

1168
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:02,320
Speaker 2: with two days of preparation on the team.

1169
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 1: Just you keep saying it out loud, I keep saying

1170
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 1: and it sounds more absurd every time we say it.

1171
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so this was eight and now it's

1172
00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I don't think it gets to seven.

1173
00:54:16,040 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 2: Come on, if it gets to seven too much, Packers

1174
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:20,440
Speaker 2: money will come in. And I do think there is

1175
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 2: you know, like quote unquote Packards money. Aaron Rodgers at

1176
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:26,319
Speaker 2: home historically crushes Aaron Rodgers, you know, like as a

1177
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,720
Speaker 2: favorite historically has done well. Aaron Rodgers off of bye

1178
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 2: has been godlike and you put all that together. Yeah,

1179
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:37,319
Speaker 2: going against Baker Mayfield, who at this point will have

1180
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 2: extra rest, you know, going from Thursday to Monday. You know,

1181
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,320
Speaker 2: if he's If Baker Mayfield is that good, which is

1182
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 2: two days, imagine how good he is with ten days.

1183
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 2: But no, I have to be on the Packers in

1184
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:53,840
Speaker 2: this spot. I'm just projected at nine and that's even

1185
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 2: adjusting up the Rams after what they did last week.

1186
00:54:58,120 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 2: Actually I have it at nine and a half and

1187
00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 2: I'm I'm assuming Aaron Donald doesn't play. I'm assuming like

1188
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 2: a lot of the injured guys for the RAMS are

1189
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:05,720
Speaker 2: just out.

1190
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 1: I'm projecting Joeyp Monday night being bored and throwing ten

1191
00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:12,720
Speaker 1: bucks on this game on the money line on the RAMS,

1192
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:15,280
Speaker 1: just for S's and g's to watch the world burden.

1193
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 1: That's what I predict. That'll do it for us here

1194
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 1: on the look ahead. Remember go to Bettingpros dot com

1195
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:22,279
Speaker 1: for more information, the profat cheet sheet and all the

1196
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 1: tools you need to be successful in your wagering world.

1197
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: And don't forget also to subscribe to the Betting Pros

1198
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:30,759
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. They're given away that Isaiah Mackenzie helmet to

1199
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 1: go subscribe today built that bell to the ghost ding

1200
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 1: and drop a comment in the YouTube comment section about

1201
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 1: how great the show is and how much you enjoy

1202
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: the show, and we enjoy you. We appreciate you watching us.

1203
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, But the story of the

1204
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 1: game goes on for Fitz and Friedman. I'm Joey P.

1205
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids,