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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action.

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Speaker 3: All right. Here we go throwing spect We're saying it's

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Speaker 3: a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: All we see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible, big bank small like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 3: this is the ultimate kabine you want to and we

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Speaker 3: are under way.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Jill Galandon. Today

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Speaker 1: I am joined by Brandon Anderson and Evan Abrams, all

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Speaker 1: with the Action Network now on this Action Network podcast

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Speaker 1: all through August. We've already covered a lot of the

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Speaker 1: futures markets, guys, like we've covered NFL MVP, we've ranked

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Speaker 1: all the teams, we've been on our favorite win totals.

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Speaker 1: But today, guys, this is where we get a little crazy.

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Speaker 1: This is arguably my favorite show to do. This is

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Speaker 1: NFL Exotics. So just to kind of give a little

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Speaker 1: bit of background on what this is. This isn't like,

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Speaker 1: you know, the typical win super Bowl type of future.

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Speaker 1: This is like we're going to go through the niche

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Speaker 1: markets like best record, last winless team, most interceptions throwed,

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Speaker 1: and we get a little bit wacky because there's so

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Speaker 1: many markets out there, at all these different sports books. Now, guys,

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to talk to you about this because

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Speaker 1: when our boss Matt Mitchell asked us to do this podcast,

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Speaker 1: I don't even think he could get the second message

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Speaker 1: out before I was like, I'm in, Like, I've been

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Speaker 1: doing this show with you guys now for three years.

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Speaker 1: Why do you think we keep coming back to these

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Speaker 1: exotic markets?

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Speaker 3: Brandon? Why don't you start?

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Speaker 4: I mean it's just how fun is it to just

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Speaker 4: like open up the book on your phone and just

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Speaker 4: scroll through menu after menu. They're giving us more every year,

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Speaker 4: Like we got we this is a two part episode.

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Speaker 4: We're expanding to a second hour of exotics.

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Speaker 3: We counted.

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Speaker 4: I think we have like one hundred bets that we're

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Speaker 4: giving out and that's not exaggeration, actually one hundred bets

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Speaker 4: that we're giving out, and they're just are more and

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Speaker 4: more angles and for me personally, like you guys know

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Speaker 4: when I give out my best bets on the Friday

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Speaker 4: show each week, like I'm not just doing here's a

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Speaker 4: couple of spreads, let's go watch the games. The further

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Speaker 4: you get down the menu, I think, the more advantage

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Speaker 4: that you can find and the further longer, the odds

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Speaker 4: are the more like look books can't find every angle,

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Speaker 4: so if they're giving it to us, there's more for

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Speaker 4: us to dig into. And you know, these are just fun.

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Speaker 4: These are fun bets to make. We call them pizza money.

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Speaker 4: So and this isn't even like deep dish, you know,

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Speaker 4: thirty dollars pizza. This is like slice of pizza. This

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Speaker 4: is like New York style slice of pizza. Put a

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Speaker 4: couple of bucks on it, have some fun. And you know,

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Speaker 4: when we give out fifty bets on a podcast, but

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Speaker 4: they're long shots.

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Speaker 3: We come up for next year and we hit like three,

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Speaker 3: four or five of them. We're in the green. We're

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Speaker 3: looking pretty good, and we had some fun along the way.

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Speaker 1: Evan, you're the data guy with us, Like I know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of the time there might be some train

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Speaker 1: Is there anything from a data standpoint of why you

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Speaker 1: like to come back and bet these exotic markets every year?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think, listen, you can handicap the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: you can handicap game to game, you can put up projections,

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Speaker 2: you can do all these things. It also works for

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Speaker 2: each of these markets, Like we're gonna have a category

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Speaker 2: later on in the first four weeks in terms of

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Speaker 2: stat leaders and records and things like that, that's just

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Speaker 2: basically cutting the season in fours and you can look

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Speaker 2: at strength to schedule over that time. So to me,

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Speaker 2: it's just kind of what Brandon said, which is a

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Speaker 2: lot more bets available in the market, less time being

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Speaker 2: spent on. Maybe from an odds maker's point of view,

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Speaker 2: maybe not if it's just a computer. It's a computer,

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Speaker 2: But to us it's something else to look into other

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Speaker 2: than the normal futures we talk about in other episodes.

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Speaker 2: And I think there's probably more of an edge there

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Speaker 2: in some of these and again longer shots that not

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Speaker 2: exactly a guy needs to win MVP, like, there's other

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Speaker 2: things you can hit, you know, twenty to one, thirty

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Speaker 2: to one's in some of these interesting markets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the edge discrepancies I think is important because Brandon

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Speaker 1: brought it up there. Bringing in new markets every year,

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Speaker 1: it seems like they think they might have the right number,

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Speaker 1: but there's so much to monitor that at some point

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a discrepancy here or there we can

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Speaker 1: take advantage of.

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Speaker 2: All.

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Speaker 1: Right, before we begin, there's a couple important notes that

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Speaker 1: we have to make. First off, because We have close

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Speaker 1: to one hundred bets. This Exotics episode is going to

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Speaker 1: be a banger. It's pretty long. We're going to break

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Speaker 1: it out into two parts, so keep an eye out

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Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast feed for both of those.

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Speaker 1: Number two, all of these bets, as Brandon mentioned, they're

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Speaker 1: pretty low stakes, like anything below like plus two hundred,

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Speaker 1: maybe we might put a full unit on it. But

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Speaker 1: once you start hearing those fifteen to one twenty to one's,

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Speaker 1: this is all about bank roll management. These are kind

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Speaker 1: of low steak pizza bets style, fifteen ten, twenty dollars bets,

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Speaker 1: kind of inconsequential money with consequential returns, obviously because we're

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Speaker 1: betting some stuff that's pretty high value. And Number three

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Speaker 1: important to note, we're going to probably mention almost every

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Speaker 1: sports book that we got these bets from. Now, it

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Speaker 1: can vary from state to state, so just kind of

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Speaker 1: try your best to find them, but we will at

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Speaker 1: least give out these sports book that has these odds

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Speaker 1: listed today. So let's jump into part one. We're going

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Speaker 1: to start off with best record. Now last year, Brandon,

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Speaker 1: we don't have a lot to victory lap from last year.

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Speaker 1: This was one of them though we both had the

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Speaker 1: best record. You had the Kansas City Chiefs, I had

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Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. They both finished fifteen and two. I

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Speaker 1: had at nine to one, yours was at plus seven

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Speaker 1: to fifty. So we essentially it's a dead heat rule

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Speaker 1: on that. So we'll take that win. But my team

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Speaker 1: that I was going to pick for best record, I'll

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Speaker 1: get us started. I like the forty nine ers at

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Speaker 1: thirteen to one. Now, if you go look at Action

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Speaker 1: Network strength of schedule based on win totals that was

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Speaker 1: provided by Sean Kerner, forty nine ers have the easiest

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Speaker 1: strength of schedule entering the twenty twenty five season. I

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Speaker 1: like some of the depth that they have added because

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Speaker 1: they've been such a top ten heavy team. But I

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Speaker 1: like the development of maybe like a Ricky pierceaw Brian

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Speaker 1: Robinson Junior is a nice trade just to add in

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Speaker 1: case Christian McCaffrey gets a little dinged up. The opening

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Speaker 1: month of the season.

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Speaker 3: Not too difficult.

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Speaker 1: You know, you've got the Seahawks, Saints, Cardinals, Jags. But

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Speaker 1: then also once you start to look at the back

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Speaker 1: half of their schedule, like once they get past Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 1: they could be on cruise control because it's the Colts, Titans, Browns,

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Speaker 1: and Seahawks, all these teams not favorite to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: The only hang up.

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Speaker 1: You know, it was funny because I talked about this

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Speaker 1: with Brandon yesterdays because I was talking to my other

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Speaker 1: one of my betting partners, and we were just talking

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Speaker 1: about the forty nine ers and he said, look, I'm

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Speaker 1: with you. I can imagine them getting there. My problem

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Speaker 1: is is that Kyle Shanahan, in his tenure as the

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Speaker 1: head coach of the forty nine ers, has never had

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Speaker 1: the best record in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: He's had a couple.

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Speaker 1: Thirteen and three seasons, thirteen and four, but never that

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Speaker 1: fifteen and two or fourteen and two record that usually

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Speaker 1: kind of puts you over the top. So I'm banking

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Speaker 1: like that's not enough to deter me, because if you

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Speaker 1: only bet on something that you've only seen before, you'll

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Speaker 1: probably never bet on anything because that's not really the

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Speaker 1: way betting works. So I like the forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: at thirteen to one for the best record. Brandon, do

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Speaker 1: you agree with the forty nine ers on this spot? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're starting with a banger. This is the one that

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Speaker 1: you and I both had last year and we are

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Speaker 1: on the same team this year. This is maybe my

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Speaker 1: favorite bet of the podcast, the Niners. I don't have

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Speaker 1: to make too much of a case. You've heard me

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Speaker 1: talk a lot about the Niners already on ten of

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Speaker 1: these pots.

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Speaker 3: Cast so far. The schedule is a huge thing.

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Speaker 4: If you take out just the division opponents and have

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Speaker 4: the non division, then the Niners are like number one

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Speaker 4: with a bullet on schedule. It's the division that's actually

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Speaker 4: making a little tougher. But they usuld play pretty well

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Speaker 4: against Sean McVeigh.

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Speaker 2: Like.

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Speaker 4: If you like some of the division matchups, then it

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Speaker 4: gets even nicer for the schedule. The health is obviously

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Speaker 4: the big question here, but we already just came out

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Speaker 4: of the year from hell basically, like they lost everyone

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Speaker 4: on offense last year multiple games, and you know we're

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Speaker 4: already a little injured to start the year at receivers.

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Speaker 4: So not not great. But Shanahan's showed that he can

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Speaker 4: keep a high floor with his team, Robert solid back

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Speaker 4: on the defense to get them to a better place

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Speaker 4: than they were last year, and frankly, they're in a

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Speaker 4: pretty good place last year. There are still top ten

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Speaker 4: offense DVA near top ten defense and you can only

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Speaker 4: get better from here. So to me, I had four

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Speaker 4: teams that really are in the running for this. It's Baltimore,

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Speaker 4: Kansas City in the AFC, It's Philly, San Francisco and

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Speaker 4: the NFC. And I have San Fraan as my number

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Speaker 4: two row record by like half a win or last

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Speaker 4: to the Ravens, So thirteen to one, very easy choice.

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Speaker 4: My long shot here is my number five team, and

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Speaker 4: that's the Houston Texans forty five to one, both at

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Speaker 4: DraftKings and I know Joe, We're gonna go back and

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Speaker 4: forth in the Texans.

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Speaker 3: I know, well, this is an upside place.

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Speaker 4: Not that I'm confident the Texans are the best team,

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Speaker 4: but if they have a top three defense, if they

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Speaker 4: have a top three special teams, and they play in

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Speaker 4: a terrible division where they could win all six games

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Speaker 4: pretty easily, if they're good, What if the offense is good.

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Speaker 3: What if Nick.

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Speaker 4: Kayley finds some solutions on that line. What if the

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Speaker 4: offense is what we hoped It might have been a

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Speaker 4: year ago, but now the rest is already great. We

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Speaker 4: all like the rest already, and it's the one bad

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Speaker 4: division in the AFC. Could they pull ahead. Could they

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Speaker 4: be the one seed? If they're the one seed, is

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Speaker 4: the best record. It's kind of my escalator spot. So

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Speaker 4: forty five to one Texans, but Niners thirteen to one.

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Speaker 4: We're in lockstep on that one.

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Speaker 1: Well, we're already off to a great start because we

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Speaker 1: already agree on one and then we kind of heavily

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Speaker 1: disagree on another one. But Evan, what do you think

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Speaker 1: of the Texans? Are you on Brandon's side or on

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Speaker 1: my side on this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? So I'm doing a lot of podcasts with the

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Speaker 2: Island guy, and that's Brandon who always talks about islands

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Speaker 2: every year, and I seem to be on an island

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Speaker 2: myself because because I don't see San Francisco, and every

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Speaker 2: podcast I do with Brandon, he is very pro San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of people here at action, but

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Speaker 2: I'm just not on that side. So I don't see

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Speaker 2: this bet. I mean, I understand the healthiness the thirteen

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Speaker 2: to one in value, like the balance back McCaffrey being

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Speaker 2: healthy in a sense, everything else a little bit banged up,

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Speaker 2: But the value I see. I like Houston. I think

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Speaker 2: the forty forty five to one range for this bet

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Speaker 2: given the division, I think is a big plus. The

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Speaker 2: defense will keep them almost in every single game, and

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Speaker 2: I think there's value and we talked about in the

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Speaker 2: Awards podcast in some Nico Collins markets. I think he's

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Speaker 2: due for a really, really good season. So I like

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Speaker 2: the Houston one and I think the other one that

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Speaker 2: peaks my interest green Bay twenty five to one. I

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Speaker 2: see regression in Detroit. I'm not fully bought into what

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Speaker 2: Ben Johnson and Caleb is doing because I don't know

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Speaker 2: how much I actually buy into Caleb, and I think

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Speaker 2: Minnesota is a bit of an enigma with JJ McCarthy.

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Speaker 2: Could go really well, could not. I think Green Bay,

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Speaker 2: not being in the end mix for the division last year,

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Speaker 2: will be the team this year. I like their offense

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Speaker 2: a lot, I like the draft of Golden Like I

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Speaker 2: think the defense is probably the biggest question mark, and

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Speaker 2: I think even that they'll be middle of the league.

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Speaker 2: So I think green Bay twenty five to one probably

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Speaker 2: shows a decent value at the number. The only other

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Speaker 2: team I even looked at was Atlanta at eighty to one. Fourth,

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Speaker 2: easiest schedule the conference the division. Like, I just my

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Speaker 2: feeling is the NFC probably offers the most value in

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Speaker 2: this market, and I think that's why you guys a

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Speaker 2: San Francisco were looking that way. But those are the

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Speaker 2: two teams, those are my.

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Speaker 1: Bets for sure, and the Packers at least from a

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Speaker 1: regular season standpoint, I mean double digit wins very routinely

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Speaker 1: under Mattlin Floor's so a high floor as well. Out

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Speaker 1: of twenty five to one bet so that is best record,

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers for both Brandon and I. And Brandon

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Speaker 1: is on the Texans, Evan is on the Packers and

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Speaker 1: the Texans as well. Let's now move to the worst record,

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Speaker 1: and yeah, this one, I mean, I have to just

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Speaker 1: come out. I was on the Vikings last year. That's

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Speaker 1: how poorly I misread this market last year, and they

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Speaker 1: ended up not even close to the worst record in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. But I do think this team is very

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Speaker 1: very close to being the worst team in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and I think the record will show by the end

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Speaker 1: of the year, and that is the New Orleans Saints,

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Speaker 1: who I think are going to finish with the worst record.

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Speaker 1: I grabbed that at plus fours twenty five at DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: Now I looked over the last five years just to

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Speaker 1: see what the worst record average was, and four or

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Speaker 1: five seasons were teams with three wins. We did have

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Speaker 1: a two win year. But while I do think the

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Speaker 1: Giants would probably be a team that I thought of

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Speaker 1: for myself Russell Wilson and Jamis Winston as a quarterback situation,

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Speaker 1: I think that just kind of raises the floor where

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Speaker 1: that might end up pushing them to four or five

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Speaker 1: wins as a result, even by the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: So I pivoted more to the Saints because their quarterback

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Speaker 1: room is just even worse. Like they won five games

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Speaker 1: last year, all five of those wins were with Derek

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Speaker 1: Carr at quarterback right now they were Now they're starting

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Speaker 1: Spencer Rattler and they've got Ja Hayner backing up Tyler.

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Speaker 1: Shock can't even get into the rotation between those three

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Speaker 1: and Brandon. Just to bring back those rankings, because I

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Speaker 1: wanted to talk to you about this, I went through

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Speaker 1: all of your rankings for all different phases. You have

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Speaker 1: thirty second for quarterback rankings for the Saints, twenty sixth

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Speaker 1: in coaching staff, thirtieth in defense, thirty first in offense,

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Speaker 1: twenty fifth of O line, and twenty third for skill

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Speaker 1: position players that to me just reeks of the worst

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Speaker 1: team in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: So that is what I am picking.

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Speaker 1: For the worst record. Evan, do you agree with me?

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Speaker 1: Do you think the Saints are going to finish with

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Speaker 1: the worst record in twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I didn't really know another direction to head because

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Speaker 2: I think the other team everyone would look at as

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Speaker 2: a Giants, and I just think there's a higher floor,

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Speaker 2: like I think between the defense and who whatever. You

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Speaker 2: think a quarterback Malik neighbors like a decent line. I

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Speaker 2: just think that you know, their basement's too high. So

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Speaker 2: I think the Saints are probably the easiest pick with

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Speaker 2: the quarterback, but also rest differential second worst in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: so it's a nice bonus that they're gonna play a

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Speaker 2: lot of games where the other team's more rested than them,

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Speaker 2: So it just feels like they're probably going to be

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Speaker 2: the mix at the end of the year. The only

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Speaker 2: other team I even considered were the Raiders. They are

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Speaker 2: the worst in net differential in terms of rest. I

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Speaker 2: think it's minus nineteen minus twenty in that range, which

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Speaker 2: is a lot considering the schedule. The issue is Pete's

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Speaker 2: won seven plus games in seventeen straight seasons. So the

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Speaker 2: question is is he the floor? Like, is there no

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Speaker 2: way he's going to allow them to get there? Because

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Speaker 2: based off what I think the rest of the division,

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Speaker 2: I think they're going to be in the basement, and

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Speaker 2: it's just a matter of you know, at the end

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Speaker 2: of the year, what do some of those games look like?

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Speaker 2: Is it Gino?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't take that as a Pete Carroll pick.

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Speaker 1: I took that as a slight against Gino Smith, which

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Speaker 1: I'm all for. I'm not very high on Geno at all.

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Speaker 1: I know Brandon, so Bradon, we're both on the Saints.

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Speaker 1: You're looking at a long shot for this market.

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Speaker 3: Who do you like?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this has to just be Saint Sir

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Speaker 4: Brown's that's the pick. It's got to be one of

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Speaker 4: those two. They're the teams that are terrible there. The

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Speaker 4: Browns are just as bad in all the rankings. They

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Speaker 4: both need a quarterback. You want a team that wants

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Speaker 4: to tank at the end. I just don't see value.

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Speaker 4: I see value in those two has such a short number.

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Speaker 4: I like my long shots. I went the other way,

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Speaker 4: and I'm just getting creative. It's just a one hundred

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Speaker 4: and fifty to one long shot on the Washington Commanders

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Speaker 4: as the worst record, who definitely don't need a tank

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Speaker 4: because they have a quarterback.

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Speaker 3: But it's the only thing they have is a quarterback.

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Speaker 4: If you go quarterback list rosters, this is a bottom

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Speaker 4: of five roster for me. It's a super old roster.

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Speaker 4: And look, I need Jane Daniels to get hurt for

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Speaker 4: a while to win this bat. It's the only way

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Speaker 4: that bet is hitting. It doesn't mean I'm rooting for injury,

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Speaker 4: but let's just be honest about it. But they play

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Speaker 4: ten of their seventeen games against one of my top

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Speaker 4: twelve defenses in my rankings. Don't love that for Cliff Kingsbury.

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Speaker 4: And if you come out of the gates Giants, Packers, Raiders, Falcons, Chargers, Bears, Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: Chiefs, those are all losable.

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Speaker 4: Games, Okay. So if things don't go well and Daniels

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Speaker 4: regresses a little bit and then maybe picks up a

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Speaker 4: little injury and they're already like two and six, maybe

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Speaker 4: it goes really sideways after that and maybe go get

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Speaker 4: the high pick. So this is my favorite under on

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Speaker 4: the board. I project the Commanders under seven wins so

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Speaker 4: even an alt under seven and a half plus three twenty,

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Speaker 4: that's the responsible way for this. But if you're going

355
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Speaker 4: all the way, take the mind shaft worst record one

356
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Speaker 4: hundred and fifty to one.

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Speaker 1: Commanders, Hey, I'll take any Commanders slander I can get

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Speaker 1: right now. So that's good, all right, So Commanders one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to one, banking on a Jaden Daniel's injury. Maybe,

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Speaker 1: but again the price is too much to ignore, and

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Speaker 1: Evan and I are both on the Saints to finish

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Speaker 1: with the worst record. Now, let's talk about last undefeated

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Speaker 1: team I helved into this. Honestly, there were only two

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Speaker 1: teams to me that really stood out from a value standpoint.

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Speaker 1: I picked one from each conference the first two, and

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Speaker 1: part of the criteria was I wanted to take it

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Speaker 1: from opposite conferences, but I also wanted them to have

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Speaker 1: to play each other. But I wanted it to be

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Speaker 1: like either Week seven or onwards. So the two teams

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Speaker 1: that I chose were the Arizona Cardinals and the Indianapolis Colts.

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Speaker 1: And the Cardinals, I just like the way that they're

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Speaker 1: opening sixty seven weeks plays out because they've got the

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Speaker 1: Saints Panthers, forty nine, Ers, Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Packers one

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Speaker 1: to two games that obviously they won't be favored in

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Speaker 1: against like the Niners and Packers, but you know, if

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Speaker 1: they're playing up to potential, they could finish off seven

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Speaker 1: to zero and there, and that's kind of where you

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Speaker 1: want to be if you're looking for that undefeated. The

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts is interesting because I have that at sixty

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Speaker 1: to one. Both of these are available at DraftKings, by

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Speaker 1: the way, or pardon me, Caesars, but Indianapolis Colts again

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Speaker 1: another team very decent opening schedule, Dolphins, Broncos, Titans, Rams, Raiders,

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Speaker 1: and then the Cardinals. So the big thing for me

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Speaker 1: about the Colts is being able to play indoors. You've

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Speaker 1: seen kind of some of the splits that you've seen

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Speaker 1: with either Daniel Jones or even just this Colts team.

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Speaker 1: They like to play at home. They like to play indoors.

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Speaker 1: They only have two outdoor games over the first half.

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Speaker 3: Of the season.

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Speaker 1: So those are the two teams I like, Arizona Cardinals

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Speaker 1: and Indianapolis Colts as the two teams that I would

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Speaker 1: choose for last undefeated team. Brandon, are you looking at

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Speaker 1: the AFC East for this.

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Speaker 4: I mean I actually looked at the Cardinals as well.

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Speaker 4: I kind of like that one, but I'm going to

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Speaker 4: take another sixty to one. Give me the Patriots, who

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Speaker 4: I think have a very much higher floor. This year

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Speaker 4: we talked about they added four new guys on the

399
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Speaker 4: offensive line, that added a bunch of talent on the defense,

400
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Speaker 4: and I think it'd be a top ten defense. Mike Rabel,

401
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Speaker 4: Josh McDaniels, certainly floor raising coaches. That added to the

402
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Speaker 4: staff Stefan Diggs at receiver and some rookies at as

403
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Speaker 4: the skill positions. This is a team that I just

404
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Speaker 4: am increasingly in on. And the schedule starting out goes Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Panthers.

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Speaker 3: If the Patriots are good, those are very.

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Speaker 4: Winnable games, and that is a possible four no start,

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Speaker 4: and then it's Buffalo in Buffalo, and that's the swing.

408
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Speaker 4: We're probably not gonna win unless we get that one.

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Speaker 4: But if you get past Buffalo, then it's Saints Titans, Browns. Okay, great,

410
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Speaker 4: now we're flying. So I like the Patriots. You can

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Speaker 4: play that at ESPN BET at sixty to one. You

412
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Speaker 4: can also just play four to no first gate four

413
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Speaker 4: games four to o at plus seven to fifty that

414
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Speaker 4: gets you out before the Buffalo game. So this is

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Speaker 4: a team I'm just very much in on. We'll have

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Speaker 4: more about them later, but definitely the Patriots sixty to

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Speaker 4: one for last unbeaten long shot.

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Speaker 1: Before we move on, evan to either of these three teams?

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Speaker 1: Entice you at all, Cardinals, Colts, Patriots. I know over

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Speaker 1: the years you and I have shit on the Colts

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Speaker 1: plenty of times. Is there anything that stands out about

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Speaker 1: these three teams that maybe you'd be wanting to bet

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Speaker 1: on last undefeated team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I prefer the Patriots and the Cardinals to the Colts.

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Speaker 2: But the Colts schedule also did catch my eye, Like

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Speaker 2: I could see starting both Week one and Week two

427
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Speaker 2: at home, then you go to Tennessee and to the Rams,

428
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Speaker 2: God forbid you get through those games. You then have

429
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Speaker 2: two back to back home games with the Raiders and Cardinals.

430
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Speaker 2: So I do see the Colts as like a possibility.

431
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Speaker 2: You just have to kind of get over Daniel Jones,

432
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Speaker 2: like he could be something a little bit better, and

433
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Speaker 2: the rest of the team is pretty decent around him,

434
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Speaker 2: so intriguing, But I like the Cardinals and Patriots. One's

435
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:18,720
Speaker 2: a little bit better for sure.

436
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Colts one. You're gonna have to plug your

437
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 1: nose on that one, so a little bit yeah yeah,

438
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 1: all right, let's move over to last winless team. We

439
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,120
Speaker 1: already took a big dump on this team, Brandon, take

440
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: another one, please.

441
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 3: Yeah.

442
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:30,920
Speaker 4: So I got a whole section of hate on Saints

443
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 4: and Browns. I saved it for this section. We already

444
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 4: let you guys take the Saints on the last one.

445
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 4: The Saints start out Cardinals, who I think are gonna

446
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 4: be pretty good, and I are currently a playoff team

447
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 4: for me. Then Niners, Seahawks, Bills, those for me. With

448
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 4: the Saints, you're owing four like those are surefire losses

449
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 4: down the tricky spot home against the Giants. The Saints

450
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,200
Speaker 4: might win that one, oh no, But if we get

451
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,360
Speaker 4: past that with the loss, then it's the Patriots, the Bears,

452
00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:58,160
Speaker 4: the Box.

453
00:19:57,920 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 3: The Rams.

454
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 4: Like yikes, this is like oh nine waiting to happen.

455
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:05,400
Speaker 4: At midseason for the Saints. Aaron Shotts has the Saints

456
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 4: as a top ten toughest schedule in the first half,

457
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 4: but the number one easiest schedule in the second half.

458
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 4: Guess why all the division games come later. They get

459
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 4: to play all the other crappy teams later in the schedule.

460
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 4: They'll play the real teams early. So Saints last winless

461
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 4: team plus eight to fifty at ESPN. At that book,

462
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 4: you can also bet on seeding in the conferences. I

463
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,199
Speaker 4: like Saints as the sixteen seed, so worst team in

464
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 4: the NFC plus two twenty five. You can do that

465
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 4: for Browns and AFC plus two twenty five. Give me

466
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 4: both of them. Now, I don't need to pick which

467
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 4: one's gonna be worse than the other. They can just

468
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 4: both suck, and that's great for me. If you want

469
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 4: a bet that's gonna win. Brown's worst in the division

470
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 4: minus three hundred after DraftKings not gonna give you a

471
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 4: lot of minus bets today, but they're not catching anybody

472
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 4: in that division, So I like that one too, all right.

473
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 1: Because we were kind of toying with the idea about

474
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 1: the Giants for worst record, I thought that this actually

475
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 1: would more apply to them for last winless team, so

476
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 1: I took them at four to one at ESPN bets.

477
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 1: So the Giants, they have the second hardest strength of

478
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 1: schedule based on win totals. Their offense has just been

479
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,360
Speaker 1: regressing year over year, even with Russell Wilson. That ceiling

480
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 1: is capped on what they can do offensively, bottom five

481
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 1: offensive line. And then just looking at the opening eight

482
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 1: weeks of the season, even just the opening month, like

483
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 1: looking through the entire year for look ahead lines, They're

484
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 1: only going to be favored in probably one game this season,

485
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 1: and I'm not sure they should even be favored in

486
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,919
Speaker 1: that game. And Week five on the road versus the Saints.

487
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,880
Speaker 1: So I just think that the quarterback edge, they're never

488
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 1: going to have it in any game this year unless

489
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,639
Speaker 1: they're facing a backup quarterback. I mean, I'm going to

490
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 1: expand on this a little bit more, but just I'm

491
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 1: not high on Brian Dable and this team. I think

492
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 1: at four to one, that would be the team that

493
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 1: I would look at that I think could start zero

494
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 1: to eight and potentially have him fired. We'll talk about

495
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,360
Speaker 1: that a little bit more, Evan. Do you have any

496
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 1: teams that you want to add to this?

497
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was looking at this more from the long

498
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 2: shot point of view, and so I mean I think

499
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 2: the Saints, and to be fair, the Saints in this

500
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 2: market probably a longer bet than the Saints in our

501
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 2: market we talked about before, so you know, a little

502
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,239
Speaker 2: bit more of a crap shoot because it's games at

503
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 2: the beginning of the season. But I think this is

504
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 2: a strength to schedule bet. I like the Rams, the Commanders,

505
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 2: and then I was toying between the Bucks and Atlanta.

506
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 2: Obviously they play each other in Week one, so you

507
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 2: got to get that one right. But I think both

508
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: teams after their Week one game could see a bit

509
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 2: of his skid given the schedule coming up. But I

510
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 2: think Washington, so if you're gonna go with Brandon's bet

511
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: from before about them potentially not going right, it would

512
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 2: take the Giants to beat them in Week one, which

513
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 2: their pass rush like things. Weirder things have happened than

514
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 2: the Giants winning that game in Week one, And then

515
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 2: you've got at Green Bay at home against Vegas at

516
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 2: Falcons at Chargers. I believe that Raiders game would probably,

517
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 2: you know, be another pretty decent sized upset. But I

518
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 2: don't have the odds in front of me. But those

519
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 2: were the long shots.

520
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 1: I kind of looked at, well, what, Brandon, you have

521
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 1: a long shot for this one too, right?

522
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll chime in on the box because that's the

523
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 4: one I looked at. I tell you about this a

524
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 4: while back that like the opening schedule, I don't have

525
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 4: that in front of me. But it's just it's tough, man.

526
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 4: If you lose to the Falcons, that's a really pivotal game.

527
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 4: Like they're the only two even remotely decent teams and

528
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 4: they're playing Week one, both missing their offensive linemen, like

529
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 4: both barely even ready for this game. It's kind of

530
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 4: low key the most important game of Week one, other

531
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 4: than obviously Buffalo Baltimore. And then we can forget about

532
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 4: the NFC South for that's the season after that, because

533
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 4: the Box might lose and then just keep on losing.

534
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 4: This to me is just take Tristan the worst off

535
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 4: the team, and it's a terrible cascading effect on the

536
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 4: whole thing. He's this awesome pass blocking blindside left tackle

537
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 4: great well. Baker Mayfield has been a top ten quarterback.

538
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 4: What is he without the pass protection? We've seen that, unfortunately,

539
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 4: we have that data also from other years. What is

540
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 4: he without elite receivers? That half of them are in

541
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 4: hospital right now, so if it goes bad, it could

542
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 4: go really bad. And the crazy thing on this one

543
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,879
Speaker 4: is you could actually win your fifty to one Bucks

544
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 4: last winless bet, and then you could still bet on

545
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 4: them to win the division after that, and you might

546
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 4: win that bet too, because I think it will still

547
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 4: be in play in the NFC South. I'm totally serious too.

548
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 4: They might start two and five or one and six.

549
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 4: I looked at them for worst record. You can't bet

550
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 4: it because they'll still be like one game behind in

551
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 4: the division and they're gonna be like, oh, well, now

552
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 4: that we're healthy, let's try now.

553
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 3: So you're right.

554
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 4: I haven't us said this, but I like the Saints

555
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 4: for this one because it's the schedule play and it's

556
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 4: a longer number rather than worst record. Like they got

557
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 4: to play the Bucks and the Panthers and Falcons. They

558
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 4: might actually beat one of them at some point. So

559
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,440
Speaker 4: that's kind of the setup here for me. All right,

560
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 4: that was last winless team. Let's now move to the

561
00:24:56,080 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 4: offensive side of the ball and specifically the most team

562
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 4: point scored or most or least team point scored. Let's

563
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 4: start with the most.

564
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: Let's go on a positive angle here because I feel

565
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: like we've just been trashing teams now for ten minutes straight. Brandon,

566
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: you like a team for the most points scored in

567
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: the NFL in twenty twenty five.

568
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 3: Who do you like?

569
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna give you both of my picks right here.

570
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 4: So the Ravens eight to one at ESPN. Don't need

571
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 4: to make the case on the Ravens. They're number one

572
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 4: offense DVA, passing and rushing last year, their top four

573
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 4: scoring both years with Todd Munkin. They got the MVP

574
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 4: and Lamar Jackson. It's the Ravens if you want a

575
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 4: long shot. Last three years, only one team has finished

576
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 4: top five in scoring each of the last three years.

577
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 4: It's Ben Johnson. Guys, it's the Bears twenty five to

578
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 4: one at Caesars.

579
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 3: They are.

580
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 4: They're the Lions were number one in scoring last year.

581
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 4: And if you look at this one most points has

582
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 4: got to be a playoff team. Last last three years,

583
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 4: the top five point scored. It's all double digit win

584
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 4: playoff team, so points equals wins. I like the Bears

585
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 4: Bears Island, so Bears twenty five to one, but responsibly

586
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 4: Ravens eight to one.

587
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: All Right, we've shoehorned in Brandon's love affair with Ben

588
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 1: Jhonnson again throughout this month. Evan, who do you like

589
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: for most points scored this year?

590
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, an even longer shot. On my end, I just

591
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 2: think Dallas has the opportunity to get there. They're thirty.

592
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 2: I've seen thirty five to one some places in the market.

593
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 2: To me, it's about the fact that if Micah Parsons

594
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 2: doesn't play on the defense, the defense is going to

595
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 2: be really, really bad, and it's going to give the

596
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 2: opportunity more to the offensive score points. You've added pickings

597
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 2: to the receiving corps. Lamb's obviously going to do his thing.

598
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 2: I think Dak needs to stay healthy and to that point,

599
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 2: I think they're going to be in more shootouts than not,

600
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 2: and if Micah plays, maybe they're a better team. And

601
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,919
Speaker 2: I think this number still has some validity. I just

602
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 2: think it's a little long considering if healthy, what this

603
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 2: offense could do. So I like Dallas in this spot.

604
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 2: I don't have much else in terms of why this

605
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 2: bet would work. It's just more to the point that

606
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 2: I think it's a little underrated at the number.

607
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 1: I also think too, it's just it's easy to substantiate

608
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: because you have seen it happen before, Like we've seen

609
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: even two where a team that has a defense with

610
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: Micah Parsons could actually put them in better field position

611
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: to score or even cause more turnovers and get some

612
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: you know, defensive scores as well, which only helps, right.

613
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: So yeah, but who do you like for lease least

614
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 1: team points score? Because you have Dallas for most? Who

615
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 1: do you like on the least side?

616
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 2: Yeah? So I think you know Saints Browns. I think

617
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 2: there's some easy ones that you could probably pluck in

618
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 2: this scenario. But I think the Jets are intriguing at

619
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 2: ten to one and eleven to one in the market.

620
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 2: I just have zero faith in Justin Fields. And I

621
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 2: think Justin Field's the passer and Justin Field's the runner.

622
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 2: Are just completely two different players. If you were playing mad,

623
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 2: it's like Travis Hunter. To me, it's absolutely two different players.

624
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 2: And I think the passing issue is what makes his

625
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 2: bet viable because I just don't necessarily think he's going

626
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: to run a efficient enough of an offense where the

627
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 2: running will out do the passing. So I believe the Jets.

628
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 2: Aside from that, you're gonna have a frustrated Garrett Wilson.

629
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 2: You've got a defensive head coach who is going to

630
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 2: be very, very focused on the defensive end of the ball,

631
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 2: and I think Field's gonna be a little bit left

632
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 2: to dry. So I think at ten or eleven to one,

633
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 2: I think it has some value.

634
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: Brandon, did you get on board with the Jets or

635
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 1: are you gonna take the bottom of the barrel here?

636
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 1: You know, I actually looked at the Jets.

637
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 4: I like that one also because I think they will

638
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 4: be perhaps the run heaviest team. How can you not

639
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 4: when you have Justin Fields, Brief Hall and Braylan Allen.

640
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 4: So keep that clock running, like this is the team

641
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 4: that you're watching red zone and it's just getting the

642
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 4: fourth quarter and we're hitting the witching hour and the

643
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 4: Jets are done, the game is over. We already got

644
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 4: done with it. So running clock, rushing team, I think

645
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 4: that works out well. Tanner Engstrad, the new offensive coordinator there,

646
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 4: comes from the Ben Johnson tree. That's two Ben Johnson's

647
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 4: for me keep track at home. So I think more

648
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,479
Speaker 4: running that way as well. I'm going chalk here. So

649
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 4: the last five years, the quote winner in this category

650
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 4: of least points scored all AFC teams that won two, three, three,

651
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 4: four and five games. So pick the worst team in

652
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 4: the AFC. Give me the Browns plus three seventy five

653
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 4: Caesars shocking case here. We've talked a lot about the Saints,

654
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 4: less about the Browns. The Browns quarterback room is the

655
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 4: worst in the league. Joe Flacco is not gonna last

656
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 4: too long out there, one reason or another. And they

657
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 4: don't get to play the NFC South like the Saints,

658
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 4: so they gotta play the Ravens, they gotta play the Steelers.

659
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 4: They do get to play the Bengals, but only twice,

660
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 4: so least points. Browns plus three seventy five.

661
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 1: So Evan, I was just looking up Justin Field's game

662
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: one last year with the Steelers. Do you know he

663
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: only topped twenty points in two of six starts as

664
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: a starter with the Steelers. Now, some of that could

665
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: have been the offense, but yeah, you're right. I'm not

666
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: high on the Jets either. I had decided though, I'm

667
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: going to look at an AFC East team, but I

668
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: wanted to look at a long shot, especially a team

669
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 1: that I think we're all most associated with seeing explosive offense.

670
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 1: And I look the Miami doll in this spot at

671
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: forty to one, at Caesars for a little bit of

672
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 1: a long shot bet because there's already kind of turmoil

673
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: within the organization, especially from a Tyreek Hill standpoint Mike

674
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: McDaniels standpoint, I mean, Mike McDaniel right now, spoiler is

675
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 1: favored to be the first coach fired at plus two

676
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 1: hundred right now. But I also just think it's a

677
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: too attag of ILOA thing because much like the Jayden

678
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:26,719
Speaker 1: Daniels analysis about the Washington Commanders, they're one two injury

679
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 1: away from being a bottom five offense, and their offensive

680
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 1: line took another hit with toront Armstead retiring, and I

681
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: just don't think the Dolphins have this infrastructure to withstand

682
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 1: a starting quarterback injury. Like not that I would want

683
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson to get hurt, but if

684
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: they did, I still think the floor is there from

685
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: a roster standpoint, to still be able to put points

686
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: on the board. I do not believe in that with

687
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 1: the Mike McDaniels and Dolphins offense, especially when you look

688
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: at the backups of Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers. I

689
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: don't know if you've been watching any preseason lately for

690
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 1: an of our listeners, but may and it's been turnover

691
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: central with those two. And then also looking at the

692
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 1: backup quarterback history in the Mike McDaniel Tua Era only

693
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 1: went over twenty points in two of those twelve games,

694
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 1: so it was mostly Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater. So

695
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, if tua takes a big hit early,

696
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a curtain call

697
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 1: for the McDaniel motion offense, and then they tank for

698
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: the top pick. Maybe they get arch Manning and we

699
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 1: forget this ever happened. But I'm just saying I think

700
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,479
Speaker 1: that there's a lot of upside for the downside of

701
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 1: the Dolphins organization, and I think that starts on the

702
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: offensive side.

703
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let me just chime in real quick.

704
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 4: I looked at the Dolphins for like eight of the

705
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 4: negative categories for this podcast. I don't think I actually

706
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 4: ended up choosing them anywhere, but the vibes are awful

707
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 4: coming out of Miami, and you know, like you said,

708
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 4: McDaniel gets fired or Twa gets hurt or both and

709
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 4: things really go sideways and it's like a full blown reset.

710
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 3: So I'm looking for the.

711
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 4: Long tail down way to bet the Dolphins the problem Like,

712
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 4: I looked at them honestly as most points score too

713
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 4: while the number is really long. What if they stay

714
00:31:58,240 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 4: healthy and do the thing again?

715
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 3: That was my pick a year ago.

716
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 4: So if you're listening, you know I love my long shots.

717
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 4: Hit me on Twitter. What's the what's the way to

718
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 4: fade the Dolphins? I wanted them for like eight.

719
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 3: Of the bad categories.

720
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 4: I looked at last win less, fewest wins, all the things,

721
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 4: or I don't mind because I think they definitely could

722
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 4: go very badly.

723
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 3: And it's the reasoning.

724
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 2: Yes, it's the reason why you everyone tends to look

725
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: at full season unders like everything needs to go right

726
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 2: for someone to hit an over on like a long

727
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: season prop, a full season prop like only one thing

728
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 2: needs to go wrong for it to go under. I

729
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: think that's the thing with Miami, Like, yeah, they could

730
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 2: probably hit the long shot on most points, but then

731
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 2: everything needs to go right. I think if one thing

732
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: falls off the car, you have a really good shot

733
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 2: at this bet. So I like it. I'm probably gonna

734
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: add it.

735
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 3: No surprises, folks.

736
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: NFL season kicks off in a matter of days, and

737
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: to get the most out of the award, winning action app.

738
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 1: You'll want to be an Action Pro subscriber because only

739
00:32:55,680 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: Pro subscribers get real time picklers from experts like Brandon Anderson, myself,

740
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: our entire Action Network team. Plus, you can access our

741
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team.

742
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,800
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743
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746
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:19,720
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747
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:23,440
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748
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,240
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749
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:27,440
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750
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 3: All right, let's.

751
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 1: Continue with the exotic bets for the NFL futures. We've

752
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 1: given out a lot of long shots, but let's let's

753
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: scale down a bit. Let's look at the playoff market.

754
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,479
Speaker 1: I want to look at make playoffs or to miss playoffs. Brandon,

755
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: you already talked about this team. Who do you think

756
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: is a good bet to make the playoffs in the

757
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 1: NFL this year?

758
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 4: So yeah, I've talked about a couple of these teams

759
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 4: already I've got three I'm going to give out here.

760
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 4: I like the Patriots to make the playoffs. They are,

761
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 4: to me one of the five teams in the AFC

762
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 4: that I am most certain make the playoffs. And you

763
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 4: know who the other four are. It's the four division favorites.

764
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 4: I've got the Patriots over ten wins in like a

765
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 4: game and a half above any other option in the

766
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 4: wildcard race. I think the Patriots might end up pushing

767
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 4: for the division title as well. I be honest, I'm

768
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,359
Speaker 4: starting to wonder if I maybe you should have gotten

769
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 4: in on Patriots Island as well as Bear's Island this year,

770
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 4: So we'll see. Maybe I'll get there still. Patriots to

771
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 4: make the playoffs plus one fifty four, all those floor

772
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 4: raising options and just incredibly soft schedule this year.

773
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 3: Love that one.

774
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 4: Another minus bet for you here, Packers to make the

775
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 4: playoffs is minus one to.

776
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 3: Thirty at Caesars. What are we doing?

777
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 4: The Packers aren't missing the playoffs. The floor is so

778
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 4: high with Matt Laflor, it's literally in his name. Everything

779
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 4: is good there. They made the playoffs last year, even

780
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 4: though Jordan Love got hurt. They made it with a

781
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 4: new defensive coordinator. The defense should continue to get better,

782
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 4: love should get better. They got so many options on

783
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,800
Speaker 4: offense we talked about, like the open ended flush straight

784
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 4: draw where there's just so many outs that they can

785
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 4: hit there.

786
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,080
Speaker 3: I just think the Packers to me, are.

787
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 4: One of the three lock playoff teams with the Eagles

788
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,320
Speaker 4: and Niners, and frankly probably more likely the Niners. The

789
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 4: Niners can just get all injured, but the Packers have

790
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,359
Speaker 4: so many other options there, so I love that one.

791
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 4: And now, of course Ben Johnson's Bears plus one ninety

792
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 4: five at Caesars Joe, I know you're on the Bears too,

793
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 4: and I've already done my Bears thing, so I'll let

794
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:20,919
Speaker 4: you make the case for this on well for sure.

795
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 1: And I mean we're already on the division futures for

796
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 1: Bears Island, and that's all well and good because that's

797
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 1: at five to one. But this one, I still think

798
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 1: is a good price around plus one seventy five. And

799
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 1: part of the reason why I like the Bears isn't

800
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 1: just about winning the division. I think the wild card

801
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: spots in the NFC, as you just kind of laid out,

802
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 1: are more up for grabs, and Ben Johnson coming back,

803
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: you know, having you know, two tight end offense, I

804
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 1: think that offense will just take a skyrocket leap compared

805
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: to what we saw last year. Improved offensive line. I

806
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: think there'll be some regression as well for your Vikings

807
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 1: and the Detroit Lions. Also another thing too, just one

808
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 1: of the things I think they're gonna do is I

809
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: think they'll play well within the division because Brandon, I

810
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 1: look this up. The Bears haven't had a winning record

811
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: within their own division since twenty nineteen, like the Mitch

812
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: Rubisky days. Right, So if we even get three and

813
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: three or four and two this year, I love my

814
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: chances even more for the Bears to make the playoffs.

815
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 1: I've got one more or I got more in the

816
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: miss side. But Evan, what do you think about the

817
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 1: Packers and Patriots?

818
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, those are my picks. I really tried to look,

819
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 2: not look in this document when I was doing my picks,

820
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 2: just to you know, kind of have my own opinions

821
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 2: and then come back. Me and Brandon basically had the

822
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: same thoughts here. I mean, I am very pro Green

823
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 2: Bay on this podcast, as Brandon is pro San Francisco.

824
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,919
Speaker 2: Because if you like a team, you like a bunch

825
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 2: of angles on that team. It kind of ends up

826
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 2: flooding into other categories. So I like Green Bay here

827
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 2: and New England just the you could just look at

828
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,240
Speaker 2: the wind total, like if you just want to believe

829
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 2: that they went from four to four and a half

830
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 2: to eight and a half nine, I mean, the projection

831
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 2: is there in itself, and you're getting plus money with

832
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 2: an extra wild card spot like and the rest of

833
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 2: the division. Like we've talked about anti MYI, We've talked

834
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 2: about anti Jets. There's not much else and you and

835
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 2: even against Buffalo, I feel like it's competitive. There's one

836
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 2: of those games on Sunday night football, like it's gonna

837
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 2: it's gonna be interesting. So those are my two makes,

838
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 2: all right.

839
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: So let's talk about miss the playoffs and Brandon, I

840
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 1: think you're just gonna echo kind of the same sentiment

841
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 1: that you talked about in worst record.

842
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Washington and missed the playoffs. Obviously I'm gonna

843
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 4: be in on that when I've already kind of talked

844
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,399
Speaker 4: about how down I am on this team. Just don't

845
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 4: trust the coaching staff very much, don't trust the offensive line.

846
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 4: It's got to come together. Sam Cosmi is out. Tunsul

847
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 4: is new but had some struggles last year. Don't trust

848
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,360
Speaker 4: the defense either. Like I think, this is kind of

849
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 4: like the Bengals in the NFC, except a little bit

850
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 4: worse at all the things, and the NFC is a

851
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 4: lot more competitive as far as getting into the playoffs.

852
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 4: Like I would, I'd love to make Bengals miss playoffs

853
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 4: my pick. I do that every year. But there's too

854
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 4: many open spots. I cannot find playoff teams in the AFC.

855
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 4: In the NFC, there's like twelve teams I think are

856
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 4: in the mix for seven spots. So Commanders to miss

857
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 4: plus one thirty and then one more Ben Johnson for you,

858
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 4: I think that makes it four for me here, Lions

859
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:10,240
Speaker 4: to miss at plus one sixty five at Caesar's Look,

860
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 4: we've been out saying all the Ben Johnson stuff. If

861
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 4: you take the Lions and take Ben Johnson away and

862
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 4: Aaron Glenn and a bunch of their assistants, both of them,

863
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 4: so you really took a huge brain drain out of

864
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 4: Detroit an offensive line, You took Frank Regno out, and

865
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 4: you take Kevin Zeitler away. That's really the strength of

866
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 4: what this team was. This You know, bite you in

867
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 4: the kneecaps, run the ball down your throat with Ben

868
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 4: Johnson's offense, and you've taken a lot of that structure away,

869
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 4: taken away from Jared Goff. For me, the Lions are

870
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 4: right now actually pretty clearly fourth in the division for me,

871
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 4: and it's not by a huge margin. It's close, but

872
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 4: it's a tough division. And if I'm in on Chicago

873
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 4: and I like Minnesota and Green Bay, that's it. There's

874
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 4: only four teams, so Detroit I still have as like

875
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 4: a round to five hundred team. I'm not expecting them

876
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 4: to just fall apart. A lot of the metrics expect

877
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 4: regression there and at plus one sixty five like they're

878
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 4: one of the six or seven most likely to make it.

879
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 4: So this is actually a pretty juicy number as far

880
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:14,320
Speaker 4: as this market goes for missing. And I know comparatively

881
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 4: these are not as much long shots as some of

882
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 4: the other bets we're giving out. I think if you

883
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 4: at home, if you like to make your parlays and

884
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 4: you want to do like the make or miss parlay,

885
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 4: this is where you go pick the like three or

886
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 4: four that you like here and put them together that

887
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 4: packers to make one. Especially, that's one that I'd add

888
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,880
Speaker 4: into multiple different parlays as just like, hey, here's like

889
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 4: a you know, plus one hundred effectively to just add

890
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 4: in and juice my bet a little bit on a future.

891
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 4: I think that's what you can do with some of

892
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 4: these bets. So Commanders to miss plus one thirty and

893
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 4: Lions at plus one sixty five because Ben Johnson, all right.

894
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: Let's see if I can make some enemies of you.

895
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: Two here, we're going to talk about the Houston Texans

896
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: because I'm taking them to miss the playoffs. I grabbed

897
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 1: it at plus one twenty. My opinion is that I

898
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 1: think the honeymoon stage is for CJ.

899
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 3: Stroud.

900
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 1: I think defenses have started to figure him out a

901
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 1: little bit, and I'm just worry about how he's going

902
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 1: to handle the pressure, especially given Brandon. You rank their

903
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 1: offensive line dead last in the NFL. So let's just

904
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 1: talk about this because the one thing about CJ. Stroud

905
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 1: year over year year two, we saw his interception rate

906
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: per dropback go up, along with his turnover worthy play

907
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 1: percentage as well. And in his first season, one of

908
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:26,920
Speaker 1: the things that Nick Giffin and I love to do,

909
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 1: we love the bet on interception props, and he would

910
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 1: try to warn me about his interception prop because he

911
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 1: would tell me, look, I know we're not seeing them,

912
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 1: but the bad ball rate is increasing as the season

913
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 1: goes on. And as I mentioned, there are worst offensive line,

914
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 1: less weapons on defense and in division with three teams

915
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,760
Speaker 1: that I think are actually expected to improve. So again,

916
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 1: the Texans defense is still the best unit within the division.

917
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 1: But if this is a team that I'm going to

918
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 1: probably plant my flag on that this could be a

919
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 1: year from hell, it would be the Texans. And then

920
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 1: also looking at their final three to four games, I

921
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: think that might determine the.

922
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 3: Seeds for the AFC because.

923
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 1: They're playing the Chargers, a team that's kind of on

924
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 1: that bubble, the Colts another team divisional, and then the Raiders,

925
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 1: if we're living in Brandon's NFL world, you know, are

926
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 1: right there in the mix as well. So again, I

927
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 1: just think the Houston Texans, coming off a season where

928
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: they went ten and seven, I'm not really sure if

929
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 1: I see upside with this team. So I'm going to

930
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 1: fade the Houston Texans this year and pick them to

931
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: not make the playoffs. Evan, do you have any teams

932
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 1: that you think are going to make the playoffs this year.

933
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I went one minus ods and three plus odds.

934
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: The one minus ods I like, I'm anti Pittsburgh. I

935
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 2: just think the division, aside from Cleveland is really difficult,

936
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 2: and I actually think Cleveland is relatively pesky, especially in division,

937
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 2: so I think it's going to give Pittsburgh a little

938
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 2: bit of trouble. So I think the minus ods on

939
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is worth it. I just don't buy into the

940
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 2: Rogers hype. And then my three plus odds, I'm with

941
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 2: you on Detroit. I think the odds on Detroit with

942
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 2: the fact that the rest of the division is what

943
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 2: it is, I think is a good bet. After losing

944
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,919
Speaker 2: the coordinators, I think I see both ways with Tampa Bay,

945
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,360
Speaker 2: so we talked about them potentially with you know, zero

946
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 2: wins to start the year in the first few weeks.

947
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 2: I also think them missing the playoffs with the fact

948
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 2: that Wharfs is hurt, you know, I think we still

949
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 2: have questions on Godwin, all these different things kind of

950
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 2: compiling on each other. I do think Tampa Bay in

951
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 2: that spot at plus one plus one fifty range. And

952
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 2: then I'm just gonna say it, and I'm happy to

953
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 2: be wrong about this, but I'm also gonna say San Francisco,

954
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 2: it's about two to one. It's the opposite opinion of

955
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 2: everybody else I've ever talked to at this company, at

956
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 2: least it seems. But I still think that the Rams,

957
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, and the Seahawks are formidable units. And I

958
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 2: think they are. They are not what they were. So

959
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 2: we're gonna see if I am wrong, but I will

960
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 2: leave it at that, all right.

961
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 1: So those are the markets that are kind of more

962
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: under the plus two hundred range. I promise you we're

963
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: going to be starting to really skyrocket here with some

964
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 1: of these odds, and we're gonna move now to the

965
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 1: team to reach conference championship and or divisional round market.

966
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 1: A lot of these are available at ESPN. Brandon, why

967
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 1: don't you get a start?

968
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I.

969
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 4: Added this one to our mix because I think this

970
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 4: is new. I don't remember seeing this last year. Normally

971
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 4: there's like stage of elimination, but what if you make

972
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 4: it here but keep on going?

973
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 3: So that's the market being offered. My problem is I.

974
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 4: Would pick a team and be like, Okay, what if

975
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 4: the Texans are really good to make the Conference Championship. Well,

976
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 4: I don't want just a plus five hundred at FanDuel

977
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 4: for that now.

978
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 1: I want more.

979
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 3: Now, I want them to win and I want the

980
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 3: bigger ticket.

981
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 4: So I broke my own rules and I kind of

982
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 4: like switched up my bets here, So I'm gonna give

983
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:38,720
Speaker 4: you two. I like the Texans, I like the Packers.

984
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 4: But here's how I'm betting it. I like the Texans,

985
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 4: but I like them to get there for the reasons

986
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 4: we talked about it earlier, and I'll say more about

987
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 4: them shortly, but then lose because I think Baltimore is

988
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 4: the better team and the class of the AFC this year.

989
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 4: So exact outcome at ESPN Ravens over Texans in the

990
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 4: Conference Championship is thirty to one. That's my bet on

991
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 4: the Texans at the cost of the Ravens. And then

992
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 4: for the Packers, same thing I mean on the Niners Niners.

993
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 4: Packers don't love that matchup for the Niners has not

994
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 4: gone well historically for San Francisco. But if I like

995
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 4: the Niners, I like the Packers to get to the

996
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 4: NFC title game for the reason we talked about, but

997
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 4: the Niners to beat them.

998
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 3: That's fifty to one.

999
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 4: So I'm betting on the Texans and the Packers to

1000
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,839
Speaker 4: like get far but not far enough. And then I'm

1001
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 4: doing our friend Matt Moore loves to do with these

1002
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:30,800
Speaker 4: exact bets and I always dump on it in the NBA,

1003
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 4: But it's exotics time. Let's have a little fun and

1004
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 4: pick some exact outcomes.

1005
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 1: Evan, are you still riding with the Packers like in

1006
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:38,280
Speaker 1: this kind of market?

1007
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was the one for me. Five to one

1008
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 2: Conference championship, two to one Divisional. It feels super easy.

1009
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,879
Speaker 2: The other one I was toying with. I just think

1010
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 2: it's because of the division with the NFC South, it's

1011
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 2: either missed the playoffs at plus money or potentially get

1012
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 2: a home playoff game and make the conference championship. And

1013
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 2: I think both avenues kind of need to be considered

1014
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 2: because if either happen, you do make money. That is

1015
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 2: the right way of looking at it. So Atlanta at

1016
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:10,240
Speaker 2: eleven to one and Tampa at five to one peaked

1017
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,760
Speaker 2: my interest because I do believe they are the most

1018
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 2: likely one to two combo in that division. Also, these

1019
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 2: markets probably flewid as the season starts, so I almost

1020
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 2: would consider the loser of Week one for this bet.

1021
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 2: That's the way I would.

1022
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 3: Look at it, not bad.

1023
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 1: I like that strategy. And so that's teams to reach

1024
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 1: conference championship. Let's now do which is essentially a parlay

1025
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 1: of conferences. Let's do Super Bowl exact matchups. So essentially

1026
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: we're parlaying the AFC winner with the NFC winner. And

1027
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 1: I went pretty chocky with this one. Even though the

1028
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 1: odds aren't chock the odds may as well be. I

1029
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 1: took Bills forty nine ers at forty to one, and

1030
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 1: we've already went over the case with the Niners, you know.

1031
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 1: But I do like the fact that there's some conference

1032
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 1: championship pedigree to in the last five seasons. So like

1033
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: their chances that needs to make it to the end.

1034
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 1: But from a Bills standpoint, it's kind of a now

1035
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 1: we're never like if I think this is just the

1036
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:03,280
Speaker 1: Bills year to get over that hump. I mean, they've

1037
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 1: shown they can beat the Ravens in a playoff scenario.

1038
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: We'll see how that goes, given how much they've improved

1039
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: their defense, and even last year, like he had two

1040
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 1: chances to beat Mahomes in the AFC, Championship game and

1041
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:14,839
Speaker 1: they just came up short. I think I would rather

1042
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:17,799
Speaker 1: try to just pick the matchup than pick the winner.

1043
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 1: At this stage, I feel like, you know, you get

1044
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: to the super Bowl and then Mahomes is there. It's

1045
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 1: like I can't bet against Mahomes. It's like, you know what,

1046
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,280
Speaker 1: let's just pick the exact and I took the Bills

1047
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Brandon, what do you like in this spot?

1048
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, kind of similar to mine from the last one.

1049
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 4: I like the Ravens. I like the Niners. So that's

1050
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 4: the matchup I want. But if I'm getting the matchup,

1051
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 4: I know absolutely which side I want in that matchup,

1052
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:44,879
Speaker 4: and it's Baltimore because Baltimore's run game against The one

1053
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 4: thing I don't like about san Fran is the run

1054
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 4: defense up the middle, Like I'm afraid of Week one

1055
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 4: in Seattle, what that's going to look like.

1056
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 3: And maybe san Fran is already, you know, behind the

1057
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 3: eight ball out of the gates.

1058
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 4: So if we get that matchup, I don't love san

1059
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 4: Fran containing the run game of Derrick Henry. I don't

1060
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 4: love their options to contain Lamar Jackson, and I do,

1061
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 4: honestly think truly that this is Lamar Jackson's year and

1062
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 4: this is the Ravens year. So Ravens Niners. I don't

1063
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 4: think I need to make the case of why they're

1064
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,840
Speaker 4: getting to the super Bowl. Everybody knows what we like

1065
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 4: about these teams. But if we get there, I like

1066
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 4: the Ravens to win. So give me the exact outcome

1067
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 4: of Ravens over Niners at DraftKings seventy to one. What

1068
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 4: fun is betting? And you can't just like call your

1069
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 4: shot in the Super Bowl every now and then put

1070
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 4: a couple of bucks on it.

1071
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 1: I feel like we need to clip what you just

1072
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,120
Speaker 1: said about Lamar Jackson because I haven't heard you say

1073
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 1: anything positive about Lamar in the time that I have

1074
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:35,879
Speaker 1: met you. So again, I was just shocked to hear

1075
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 1: positive affirmation about the Lamar Jackson and this Ravens team. Evan,

1076
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 1: do you have two you have a couple of matchups

1077
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 1: for this what do you like?

1078
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,839
Speaker 2: I'll just say I'm definitely doing Ravens over forty nine

1079
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 2: ers and Bills over forty nine ers just because I

1080
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 2: have to have a few dollars in my pocket in

1081
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 2: case the Niners make the super Bowl at this point,

1082
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 2: So that's definitely going to be in my arsenal. But

1083
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 2: I'll give you two stats just really quickly here. So,

1084
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:00,760
Speaker 2: last fourteen ANFCY Championship games have featured homes of Brady.

1085
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 2: I think we know that, but hearing it pretty crazy.

1086
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 2: Last time was Jet Steelers twenty ten to eleven. So

1087
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 2: TIW long it's been. And then you look at another angle.

1088
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 2: Only one AFC team has made the Super Bowl with

1089
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,320
Speaker 2: preseason conference odds above ten to one since Tom Brady

1090
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:18,319
Speaker 2: did with the Patriots in two thousand and one, and

1091
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 2: that was the Bengals in twenty twenty one. Every other

1092
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 2: team below ten to one odds win AFC entering the year.

1093
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 2: So AFC, given the quarterbacks at the top, almost always chalk.

1094
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 2: So the first one I do like, and again I

1095
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 2: like Baltimore. I like green Bay. So Baltimore green Bay

1096
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 2: is forty to one. Nice, I think to me, it

1097
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 2: just makes the most sense with both teams. And then

1098
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:40,839
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go a little bit off the board here.

1099
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 2: I think Philly in the NFC is another good bet

1100
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,359
Speaker 2: other than green Bay if I'm looking at the list,

1101
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,800
Speaker 2: So I like Philly as kind of the consistent side.

1102
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:52,440
Speaker 2: And then the other thing I'll say is this, So

1103
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,720
Speaker 2: winning the Super Bowl at twenty to one or longer

1104
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 2: just very rarely happens. It's almost always chalk. Especially when

1105
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 2: you go back ten fifteen. The four teams who have

1106
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 2: done it all had the same head coach the year prior.

1107
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:08,280
Speaker 2: All four won at least seven games the year prior,

1108
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,839
Speaker 2: and none actually won the division. So their accent kind

1109
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 2: of happened with this. With that being said, I'm gonna

1110
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 2: say Denver and Philly in a Super Bowl at about

1111
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty five to one, I think the Chiefs

1112
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 2: aren't gonna win the division every year. I think at

1113
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 2: some point it's going to happen, and the Slater injury

1114
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:30,279
Speaker 2: with the Chargers really kind of keeps me hesitant on

1115
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:33,240
Speaker 2: their side. I think Denver has a real complete roster,

1116
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 2: and I think they'll have a chance to make the

1117
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 2: playoffs and maybe make a run.

1118
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:39,760
Speaker 1: Okay, so Evan, you just laid out all those stats

1119
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 1: about what teams can win the Super Bowl, what we've

1120
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 1: seen historically. This next market here, I mean, we just

1121
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 1: looked at the Super Bowl, Loddes, but we kind of

1122
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 1: put the restriction on us that we have to look

1123
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 1: at something twenty five to one or longer, Evan, Is

1124
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 1: there a team that would fit that profile given the

1125
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 1: criteria that you just mentioned.

1126
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think the Denver Pick, the Green

1127
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 2: like those are the teams to me I think would

1128
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 2: live in this range. I think the only other team

1129
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 2: would probably be the Texans, which you've talked about at

1130
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:11,839
Speaker 2: other times. Brandon, I think you agree with me on that, right,

1131
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: You like Houston in the spot.

1132
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1133
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 4: I added this category for us as Super Bowl long shot,

1134
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 4: and I know it's gonna be one of our like

1135
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,640
Speaker 4: four or five favorites. That's how it goes year after

1136
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 4: a year. So for me, it's Ravens or Chiefs, and

1137
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 4: I don't really think it's the Chiefs year, So probably

1138
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 4: Ravens in the AFC or Niners, Eagles, and we don't

1139
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 4: get a lot of repeats, so we've narrowed the field quickly.

1140
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 4: And I'm out on the Lions, but long shot for me,

1141
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 4: Houston Texans forty to one. I don't know if I'm

1142
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 4: all the way there on they're going to win the

1143
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, but I think there's value in the ticket

1144
00:50:43,120 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 4: enough to give us some options if we're right that

1145
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 4: they get to a Conference championship. Now you've got some

1146
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 4: options on a forty to one ticket at DraftKings. So

1147
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 4: what I like with the Texans is I just think

1148
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 4: there's a little bit of swerve here from last year.

1149
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 4: I was out on the Texans last year. Guys, I

1150
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 4: was Texans Island two years ago, and then everyone was

1151
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 4: like all in. They went out and they got the

1152
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 4: big additions and the Texans were the darling team and

1153
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:10,839
Speaker 4: everyone loved the CG. Stroud year or two and I

1154
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 4: wasn't quite there. And they made the playoffs anyway, even

1155
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 4: though we dumped on their season, like we.

1156
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 3: Didn't think they were very good.

1157
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 4: They had a bottom ten offense, they made the playoffs,

1158
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:21,919
Speaker 4: they won ten games, and they won a playoff game.

1159
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 4: Because the floor is so high, they're my number one defense,

1160
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 4: they're my number one special teams underrated Frank Ross special

1161
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 4: teams coach has done an awesome job there. And if

1162
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:34,840
Speaker 4: that floor is so high there already with the coaching

1163
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 4: at the offense, and if the offense swerves from our

1164
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 4: expectations last year, and I said, okay, last year we

1165
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 4: thought they were good, they were bad. What if they're

1166
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 4: kind of good this year? What if the offensive line

1167
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,360
Speaker 4: isn't thirty second, but you know, twenty first, or just

1168
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 4: kind of.

1169
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 3: Like blow average a little bit.

1170
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:52,839
Speaker 4: What if we find a little bit of a run

1171
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:57,440
Speaker 4: game Stroud to Nico, Nico is just an absolute superstar

1172
00:51:57,560 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 4: that I don't think people quite put in that upper echelon,

1173
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 4: but he belongs there. I like the guys they added

1174
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:05,399
Speaker 4: Christian Kirk and the two rookies out of Iowa State

1175
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 4: to kind of round out the receiving core. I just

1176
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 4: to me the AFC, I'm in on all four of

1177
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,360
Speaker 4: the division favorites, but I have Houston even had a

1178
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 4: buffalo in the pecking order. I think they have a

1179
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 4: real shot to get to the one or two seed

1180
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 4: even and now you're maybe a bye week, maybe you

1181
00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 4: get a home game or two in the playoffs. I

1182
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 4: just think the Texans are a top seven team, even

1183
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:30,279
Speaker 4: as I project them somewhat tepidly on offense. And so

1184
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:32,480
Speaker 4: this is sort of even almost a contrarion pick. If

1185
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 4: I'm right that the offensive ceiling does hit, they suddenly

1186
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 4: become a top three team and they go probably second

1187
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:42,399
Speaker 4: behind the Ravens. To me, and why not be able

1188
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:44,279
Speaker 4: to bet against Lamar one more time? Let's geel a

1189
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:47,040
Speaker 4: little slander in for Lamar before the end of the podcast.

1190
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 4: Texans forty to one for the Super Bowl long shot.

1191
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:52,759
Speaker 1: Oh my lord, Texans forty to one. Here, I am

1192
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 1: taking them to miss the playoffs.

1193
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 3: All right.

1194
00:52:56,920 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 1: We've gave out like fifty bets just on this podcast salone.

1195
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 1: This is part one of the NFL Exotics episode on

1196
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:06,719
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. Let's narrow it down to see what

1197
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:09,399
Speaker 1: we like as our best bets. Brandon, you've got a couple.

1198
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:11,360
Speaker 1: What are your favorite bets if you could narrow it

1199
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 1: down to.

1200
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:14,720
Speaker 4: Like two or three, Yeah, forty nine Ers best record

1201
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 4: the very first thing. We gave out thirteen to one.

1202
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 4: I think, especially as a regular season bet, because we

1203
00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:22,239
Speaker 4: don't know if we trust Shanahan to do the whole thing,

1204
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 4: so we like Niners in the regular season. Saints last

1205
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 4: winless at plus eight fifty, I think is just a

1206
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 4: juicy number for such a bad team, and then not

1207
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:33,800
Speaker 4: as long. But just all those make miss playoffs stats.

1208
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 4: I really love that Packers minus one thirty to make Patriots,

1209
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:39,880
Speaker 4: and Bears to make Lions, and Commanders to mess. So

1210
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:41,879
Speaker 4: those are my favorites from this episode.

1211
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 1: So I'm going to join you with the forty nine

1212
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,320
Speaker 1: ers best record. I love the Bears to make the playoffs.

1213
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 1: Those are my two favorite. Evan, if there are two

1214
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 1: that you could narrow down or even one, what's your

1215
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 1: favorite out of that?

1216
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:57,440
Speaker 2: Anything? Pro Green Bay Jets, my Jets bad least points scored,

1217
00:53:57,560 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 2: I think is a good bet I like and I

1218
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:01,959
Speaker 2: like all my playoff bets. I think each of those.

1219
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 2: But if I had to nail it down, I think

1220
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:07,080
Speaker 2: the New England bet and the Pittsburgh bet would probably

1221
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 2: be New England to make Pittsburgh to mess.

1222
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:11,319
Speaker 1: All right, all right, well, thanks for listening to part

1223
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:14,280
Speaker 1: one of our NFL Exotics episode. My thanks to Brandon

1224
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 1: and Evan for joining me today. We're gonna have much

1225
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 1: more NFL betting content in the days, weeks, and months

1226
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 1: to come, so make sure you are subscribed to this

1227
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 1: podcast and check out the video version of the Action

1228
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:26,040
Speaker 1: Networks YouTube page, and don't forget to download the Action

1229
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:28,360
Speaker 1: Network app. If you haven't yet, you can use promo

1230
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:31,440
Speaker 1: code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off a year of

1231
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:33,439
Speaker 1: Action pro. I want to thank you again for joining

1232
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: us today on the Action Network podcast. He's Brandon Anderson

1233
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:37,240
Speaker 1: and he's Evan Abrams.

1234
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:38,280
Speaker 3: I'm Jill Goilant.

1235
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 1: Bomb Shumps.

1236
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:58,160
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1237
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1238
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:04,279
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1239
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:05,160
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