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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: Good morning, and welcome to Breaking Points. You just got

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Speaker 3: a lonely studio camera shot. That's because Ryan is traveling today,

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Speaker 3: so I'm very happy to be joined by the one

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Speaker 3: and only Crystal Ball. Crystal, good morning, how are you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning? How's it going.

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Speaker 3: It's going great, But we were just talking before the

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Speaker 3: camera starter rollings that actually it doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 3: going well for literally anyone in the country right now,

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Speaker 3: because we're about to talk about how Democrats are furious

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Speaker 3: with Chuck Schumer and Republicans maybe are getting increasingly impatient

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Speaker 3: with the Trump administration on a couple of different fronts.

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Speaker 3: We're going to break that down. Might have something to

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Speaker 3: do with the jobs numbers we're going to cover in

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Speaker 3: the show as well, but we're going to be starting

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Speaker 3: with the shutdown, which is set to end with a

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Speaker 3: House vote today. Obviously, the shutdown has Democrats enormously frustrated

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Speaker 3: with Chuck Schumer and party leadership. Actually, even party leadership

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Speaker 3: like Haakim Jeffreys is reportedly annoyed with Chuck Schumer. So

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Speaker 3: whether Check Schumer can withstand this wave in future leadership vote,

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Speaker 3: that's going to be a serious question on the table

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Speaker 3: going forward. Chris, So, we got some jobs numbers from

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Speaker 3: ADP because the government's not putting them out, don't.

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Speaker 2: We Yeah, So those numbers have become increasingly important, the

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Speaker 2: ones that are put out by private outfits like ADP.

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Speaker 2: So we'll take a look at those. Not looking great

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Speaker 2: in terms of the economy not feeling that Golden age

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Speaker 2: so much. I think most of America also not feeling

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Speaker 2: that Golden age, and that is fueling some of the

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Speaker 2: Mega revolt, the early early stage signs of MAGA revolt

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Speaker 2: as well. We have some indications Ice might be leaving Chicago,

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Speaker 2: and also DHS is going after me, so that's a

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Speaker 2: fun one. Ben Shapiro has thoughts on affordability, and you

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Speaker 2: have thoughts on Ben Shapiro's thoughts, and I have thoughts

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Speaker 2: on your thoughts on Ben Shapiro's thoughts. So we'll get

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Speaker 2: that one. And then of course, since it's a lady show,

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Speaker 2: or a ho show as we like to call it,

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Speaker 2: we had to dig into this trend of mar a

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Speaker 2: lago face. So DC plastic surgeons are saying that more

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Speaker 2: and more people, men and women, by the way, this

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Speaker 2: is equal opportunity, are coming in looking for a look

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Speaker 2: where it's like used to be the thing that if

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Speaker 2: you got work done, you don't really want people to

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Speaker 2: notice you wanted to look natural. They're overtly like, no, no,

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Speaker 2: I want people to know that I got massive amounts

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Speaker 2: of things injected into my face, and like I want

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Speaker 2: that to be advertised. So it's an interesting trend, Like

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Speaker 2: it's very actually fascinating development.

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Speaker 3: I like how you said we're going to dig into it.

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Speaker 3: We read a story about it, and we're going to

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Speaker 3: talk about this. The breaking points investigated.

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Speaker 2: Journal mostly what we do on the show.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but like the Shoelader, I.

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Speaker 2: Actually have been doing some of my own journalistic observations

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Speaker 2: on this as well, So you know, I'm not just

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Speaker 2: gonna go by what was what was put in the story.

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Speaker 2: That's just an excuse to talk about something I've actually

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Speaker 2: been thinking about for a while.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be good, So make sure you stay tuned

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Speaker 3: for that. And Katie Wilson, Right, Chris, we have an

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Speaker 3: interview towards the end of today's show. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So I recorded this with her yesterday at a time

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Speaker 2: when so this is the sort of progressive insurgent candidate

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Speaker 2: for mayor in the city of Seattle. When I talked

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Speaker 2: to her yesterday, she was up in the vote count

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Speaker 2: by ninety one votes. Ninety one votes. Now we've had

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Speaker 2: another mail ballot drop yesterday evening after I spoke with her.

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Speaker 2: She's now up by I think between like a thousand

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Speaker 2: and two thousand votes and the later mail that's coming

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Speaker 2: in now because Washington State voters, all of the voting

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Speaker 2: is actually cast by mail, and the later ballots tend

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Speaker 2: to be more progressive younger voters your way to the

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Speaker 2: last minute. So as those drops have come in, she's

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Speaker 2: taken more and more of a lead, so it is

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Speaker 2: now like pretty fully assumed she's going to be the

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Speaker 2: next mayor of Seattle. And it's really quite fascinating because

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Speaker 2: Seattle obviously the progressive city and they prior to leading

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Speaker 2: into twenty twenty, they had quite a progressive city council.

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Speaker 2: Then you had twenty twenty, you had Black Lives Matter,

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Speaker 2: Seattle was a really focal point there. You also have

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Speaker 2: issues with homelessness rise and crime coming out of COVID

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Speaker 2: all of that. So there were some backlash elections that

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Speaker 2: led to some more sort of centrist candidates right wing

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Speaker 2: in the context of Seattle being put on the city

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Speaker 2: council and also in the mayor's office. So with Katie

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Speaker 2: Wilson's apparent victory here, it really sort of sweeps that

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Speaker 2: slate of more centrist candidates out of office and brings

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Speaker 2: back more progressives. And in fact, you know, Katie, I

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Speaker 2: think is one of the more progressive people to ever

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Speaker 2: hold the office of the mayoralty. Just as one little

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Speaker 2: tees for the interview, which I really think you guys

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Speaker 2: will I think you'll enjoy. I think you'll you know,

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Speaker 2: it was very interesting speaking with her and her perspective

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Speaker 2: on what it would take for her to deliver in

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Speaker 2: that office, and she said, look, I think I'm to

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Speaker 2: be judged by improvements in quality of living, in you know,

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Speaker 2: reducing chronic homelessness, and in public safety. So that was

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Speaker 2: very much, very much her focus and looks like the

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Speaker 2: message that she brought one the day there. So excited

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Speaker 2: to share that interview with you guys today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, looking forward to that. Crystal. Make sure you go

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Speaker 3: to Breakingpoints dot com to sign up for a premium

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Speaker 3: subscription to the show if you haven't done that yet,

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Speaker 3: you get the show early and also access to the

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Speaker 3: second half of the Friday shows, which so they've been

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Speaker 3: pretty lit, I have to say recently they've.

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Speaker 2: Been If you're not getting the second half of the

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Speaker 2: Friday show, you're missing some of the best content of

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Speaker 2: the week. There's no doubt about it.

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Speaker 3: That's for sure.

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Speaker 2: Ryan Ryan unleashed in the second half of the Friday shows.

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Speaker 3: That's really unfiltered.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all right.

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Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and start with the shutdown potentially coming

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Speaker 3: to an end today. So the House of Representatives is

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Speaker 3: going to vote on that bill where Senate Democrats joined

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Speaker 3: with Senate Republicans to pass the Continuing Resolution to fund

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Speaker 3: the government. That has the left, as Crystal is going

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Speaker 3: to walk us through, absolutely furious with Senate Democratic leadership.

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Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer in particular, is understandably bearing the brunt of

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Speaker 3: the backlash. John Stewart addressed this on his show Let's

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Speaker 3: go ahead and take a look here at a zero.

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Speaker 4: Tonight's show will be brought to you by I can't

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Speaker 4: fucking believe it.

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Speaker 5: It's literally life or death.

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Speaker 6: So Democrats have three words for this.

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Speaker 4: No way, excuse me, cave on the shutdown hoo. Not

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Speaker 4: this forceful, young, authentic Democratic party that hangs out down

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Speaker 4: by the river.

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Speaker 3: Democrats, you sold out the entire.

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Speaker 4: Shutdown, not to get what you wanted, but for a

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Speaker 4: promise to not get what you wanted later. Where in

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Speaker 4: the art of war.

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Speaker 3: Where, oh god, Crystal, this has I mean, the criticisms

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Speaker 3: of Check Schumer are just blanketing American airwaves. It's like

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Speaker 3: impossible to get away from. We actually have some more

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Speaker 3: to show, folks. But quick reaction there to John Stewart,

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Speaker 3: no real surprise.

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Speaker 2: No, And I mean what he's saying is he puts

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Speaker 2: it in a name a comedic way, but it's incredibly obvious.

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Speaker 2: You did the longest shutdown in history to get literally nothing,

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Speaker 2: right after you had some of the most decisive electoral

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Speaker 2: results that I've seen in my lifetime. What are we

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Speaker 2: doing here? And so yeah, I mean, the insanity of

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Speaker 2: it is obvious on its face. And one quick note

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Speaker 2: before we play Harry In talking about Chuck Schumer's numbers

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Speaker 2: and how historically unpopular he is with his own party

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Speaker 2: they're trying to sell and Schumer's I'm sure staffers were

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Speaker 2: leaking to the press like, oh no, he didn't want

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Speaker 2: the shutdown and he was totally in it for the fight,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's a sign of how it is

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Speaker 2: a different day in the Democratic Party and with the

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Speaker 2: Democratic base. That Democratic based voters were like, that's bullshit, Like,

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Speaker 2: we're not stupid. We know that this deal was at

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Speaker 2: least tacitly supported by leadership. Your number two guy, Dick Durbin,

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Speaker 2: literally voted for it. So they're not you know, they're

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Speaker 2: not going to be snowed by these nonsense talking points.

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Speaker 2: And this is really the sort of crystallization. I hate

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Speaker 2: using that word because of my name, but whatever, it's

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Speaker 2: the crystallization of the boiling rage that has really been

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Speaker 2: simmering with the Democratic base during Trump two point zero

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Speaker 2: in general, where they have felt that Democratic leadership is weak,

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Speaker 2: they have felt they don't know how to fight, they

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Speaker 2: have felt they don't understand the moment. You know, there

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Speaker 2: was a lot of disappointment, sense of betrayal when they

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Speaker 2: just for they just didn't even bother to try to

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Speaker 2: use the leverage they had earlier during the administration. You know,

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Speaker 2: they've been very you know, they they told Jasmine Crockett

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Speaker 2: basically to like sit down and shut up and stop

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Speaker 2: being so outspoken. They've been extremely reluctant to go after

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Speaker 2: Trump on immigration abuses and ice and National Guard abuses

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Speaker 2: in cities. They've just been incredibly lame, cringe and tepid,

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Speaker 2: and the Democratic base is done with it. So you know,

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Speaker 2: that's really and to connect this to you know, Zoron's

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Speaker 2: win and what's going on in main with grim Plattner,

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Speaker 2: and you know, the types of candidates that are succeeding

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Speaker 2: right now, like there is a sense, i think an

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Speaker 2: accurate sense from Democratic leadership they've lost control of the

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Speaker 2: base of the party in a way that we've really

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Speaker 2: never seen before. Previously, if they said, oh, it wasn't us,

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Speaker 2: it was who you know, I was the Republicans, it

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Speaker 2: was you know, it was these few rogue, bad senators

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Speaker 2: like Joe Manchin, Urcures and Cinema. The base largely bought

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Speaker 2: that those days are over, which is why you now

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Speaker 2: see this historic unpopularity for Chuck Schumer. Let's go ahead

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Speaker 2: and play CNN's analysis on that front.

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Speaker 5: Least popular dem Senate leader ever. I looked at all

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Speaker 5: of the polls going all the way back since nineteen

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Speaker 5: hundred and eighty five. The one who was the lowest

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Speaker 5: rating among Democrats is, in fact, Chuck Schumer. Look at this,

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Speaker 5: He's underwater with Democrats, his own party. He's underwater.

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Speaker 3: He's at minus four points.

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Speaker 5: That makes him the least popular guy for a DEM

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Speaker 5: Senate leader going all the way back since the mid

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Speaker 5: nineteen eighties. At least, Dems in Congress do too little

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Speaker 5: to a post Trump. During the first term, it was

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Speaker 5: just forty six percent in twenty seventeen. That's the percentage

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Speaker 5: of Democrats who said that the Dems in Congress are

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Speaker 5: doing too little to a post down Trump. Look at

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Speaker 5: where we are now, sixty nine percent. That is an

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Speaker 5: increase of get this twenty three points. The super super

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Speaker 5: duper majority of Democrats believe that the Democrats in kind

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Speaker 5: are not doing enough to oppose Donald Trump. And that

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Speaker 5: of course is a big, big, big huge criticism of

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Speaker 5: Chuck Schumer, and that is why he is underwater. But

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Speaker 5: of course, the ultimate way to get Chuck Schumer out

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Speaker 5: of office is to beat him in New York State.

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Speaker 5: To how do New York State Democrats feel about Chuck Schumer?

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Speaker 5: And take a look here the net favorable among New

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Speaker 5: York Democrats. Chuck Schumer is above water with the Democrats

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Speaker 5: in his home state, but just by sixteen points. Look

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Speaker 5: at Alexandria Coshuo Kretez running way ahead. If she decides

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Speaker 5: to challenge Chuck Schumer come twenty twenty eight, she's got

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Speaker 5: a real leg up on the competition.

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Speaker 6: I dare say at.

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Speaker 5: This point she would be the favorite to beat him,

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Speaker 5: which would be something that would just blow my mind,

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Speaker 5: even just a few years ago, giving the Chuck Schumer,

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Speaker 5: of course, as a New York born bred type of guy, so.

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Speaker 2: Christ there's any poetic I think if AOC runs against him,

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Speaker 2: it's like there's she would destroy him. I don't even

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Speaker 2: think it would be close at this point.

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Speaker 3: You know, I was going to ask you that. And

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Speaker 3: when I look at this, Chuck Schumer and Hakim Jeffries

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Speaker 3: were persuaded into this shutdown because they're actually trying to

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Speaker 3: do what Nancy Pelosi sort of successfully did in Trump

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Speaker 3: one point zero, which is kind of put the lid

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Speaker 3: on the simmering pot of populist anger. It's not even

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Speaker 3: just populist anger. It's like anger across the board among

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Speaker 3: average Democrats and people in their own caucus. And that's

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Speaker 3: what they were trying to do here. They were trying

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Speaker 3: to head off the potential problem of a revolt and

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Speaker 3: give the base what they wanted so that they would

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Speaker 3: kind of calm their criticism. And the poetry of it

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Speaker 3: is that as the shutdown ends, Chuck Schumer is in

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Speaker 3: more trouble. He's in more trouble now than when it started.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think that's pretty obvious at this point

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Speaker 3: that the leadership unsuccessfully tried to stave off the revolt

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Speaker 3: by going into the shutdown and by then ending the

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Speaker 3: shutdown a week after those election wins, in particular, with

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Speaker 3: no real commitment from Republicans on a real problem for Republicans,

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Speaker 3: by the way, which is heading into a midterm year,

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Speaker 3: having many people's premium spike with the expiration of those

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Speaker 3: Biden era credits. They got nothing out of it. They

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Speaker 3: got some fundraising out of it. I'm sure they got

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Speaker 3: some energy from organizing and all of that out of it. Sure,

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Speaker 3: but people wanted a whole lot more. And now rather

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Speaker 3: than staving that off, it stoked the fire even more.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. No, I mean, dempty party is

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Speaker 2: fully here, fully here, And I'm going to make a

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Speaker 2: prediction there are going to be some Democratic incumbents who

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Speaker 2: are primaried who lose to random, in their view, nobodies

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Speaker 2: who have never held political office, never been in the

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Speaker 2: political fray. You're going to see some come out of

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Speaker 2: nowhere surprises from you know, from just everyday people who

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Speaker 2: are disgusted with the failures of democratic leadership. And you know,

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Speaker 2: one thing I was thinking about, because it doesn't appear

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Speaker 2: that like Chuck Schumer's leadership role is going to be

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Speaker 2: threatened in any way by the elected Democrats. At this point,

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Speaker 2: you have had a number of people in the House,

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Speaker 2: led by Rocana. Kudos to him for understanding the moment

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Speaker 2: who have come out and said Schumer should go. Not

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Speaker 2: a single Democratic senator though, to include Bernie Sanders, who

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Speaker 2: got asked about it and was basically like, yeah, well

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Speaker 2: what are you going to do? You know, this is

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Speaker 2: just how it is. So I don't see Democratic electeds

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Speaker 2: in the Senate making any moves to toss him out

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Speaker 2: of leadership, however, you know, and I think it comes

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Speaker 2: in part from look, their comfort with the status quo whatever.

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Speaker 2: I also think it comes in part from an old

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Speaker 2: fashioned view of what Senate or House leadership should be.

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Speaker 2: So sort of the classic role is this very insider role,

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Speaker 2: right you're fundraising, you're handling the you know, the legislative

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Speaker 2: like the strategy, and you're whipping helping the votes. That's,

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Speaker 2: you know, this sort of internal role. And the frustration

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Speaker 2: with the Democratic base is they want Democratic leadership in

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Speaker 2: the House and the Senate to be leading a public effort,

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Speaker 2: a public fight. They want them to be sort of

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Speaker 2: activist leaders in the streets, fighting in a visible way.

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Speaker 2: And Summerly made a comment to this effect when I

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Speaker 2: spoke with her last week. When I interviewed her last week,

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Speaker 2: she was like, we they need to understand that we

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Speaker 2: need a new model of leadership that is in touch

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Speaker 2: with the grassroots space, that is leading the charge in

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Speaker 2: terms of you know, movements and activism on the ground.

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Speaker 2: And so I don't think that, you know, a lot

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Speaker 2: of the senators and the Democratic Caucus, many of whom

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Speaker 2: are old, including Bernie, who's you know, quite elderly at

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Speaker 2: this point, I don't think they really understand why people

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Speaker 2: are so frustrating and the role they actually want a

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Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer to be able to fill. Because if you're

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Speaker 2: a Democratic senator, you know, with that class like traditional

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Speaker 2: status chool model, you're like, well he fundraised as well

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Speaker 2: and he does okay, and the like legislative whatever. And

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Speaker 2: the base is like, but that's I don't care about that.

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Speaker 2: That is not what we want to see. We want

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Speaker 2: to see you guys fighting, and if you have a

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Speaker 2: point in someone, you're claiming this person as a leader,

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Speaker 2: we want to see them actually leading. So I think

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Speaker 2: that's part of the disconnect between where the people are

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Speaker 2: and where the Democratic Party electeds are. Another thing I

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Speaker 2: would say, and this has been abundant for abundantly clear

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Speaker 2: for a while. Something we've been talking about for a while.

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Speaker 2: The Democratic party has a democracy problem. They do not

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Speaker 2: feel that they need to listen to their voters at all.

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Speaker 2: If anything, their instinct is always to like go against

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Speaker 2: their voters, especially if you're talking about the progressive wing.

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Speaker 2: But now you have basically the entirety of the base

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Speaker 2: that is increasingly is increasingly sort of radicalized, you know,

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Speaker 2: increasingly aligned very closely with the progressive wing of the party.

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Speaker 2: And so they're still in this outdated model of like, well,

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Speaker 2: we always got to punch left, and if it's something

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Speaker 2: that you know, that our like progressives want, then it

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Speaker 2: has to be something that we host. But what do

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Speaker 2: you do when it's not just the progressives, it's the

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Speaker 2: whole party that is like, you guys are screwing up

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Speaker 2: big time.

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Speaker 3: And this is where Chuck Schumer could actually be in trouble,

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Speaker 3: is when you have Graham Plattner and a new generation

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Speaker 3: coming in. If that happens on a populist wave, that's

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Speaker 3: basically what ended up pushing you know, John Bayner and

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Speaker 3: Paul Ryan ultimately and then I guess, ultimately good Kevin

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Speaker 3: McCarthy as well out of office. But let's let's roll

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Speaker 3: this clip because I think to the point you just

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Speaker 3: made crystal. If you are Chuck Schumer, you should take

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Speaker 3: a look at Or you're at the DNC or the DSc,

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Speaker 3: you should take a look at this clip of John

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Speaker 3: Fetterman getting grilled by Sunny hostin of the View. Who

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Speaker 3: I joked us today is like going full Jennifer Welch

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Speaker 3: here about the shutdown.

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Speaker 7: This is a three Democrats have big wins last week,

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Speaker 7: so you had momentum. Why give in now? Why bring

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Speaker 7: a butter knife to a gunfight? Are you willing to

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Speaker 7: gamble that the Dolts will negotiate on healthcare in good

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Speaker 7: faith once the government reopens, Because if that gamble is wrong,

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Speaker 7: half a million Pennsylvanians that you represent, their healthcare cost

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Speaker 7: will skyrocket if you are wrong, and I believe.

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Speaker 2: You are wrong.

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Speaker 8: Well, for first of all, MTG is quite literally the

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Speaker 8: last person in America that I'm going to take advice

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Speaker 8: or to get their kinds of my leadership and values from.

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Speaker 8: And now if Democrats are celebrating crazy pants like that,

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Speaker 8: then that's on them. And now I don't need and

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Speaker 8: I don't need a lecture. I don't need a lecture

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Speaker 8: from from whether it's Bernie or the governor in California

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Speaker 8: because they are representing very deep blue blue kinds of populations.

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Speaker 8: I promise you this isn't a political game. It is

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Speaker 8: viewed by that by many of us. But the reality

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Speaker 8: is forty two million Americans now not sure where their

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Speaker 8: next meal is going to come from. And because we

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Speaker 8: vote like that, vote like that, or people that haven't

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Speaker 8: been paid for five weeks now, and that kinds of chaos.

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Speaker 8: Those workers are are more than half a billion dollars

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Speaker 8: you know, from their credit union just to pay their

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Speaker 8: bills now. So for me, we're in the middle of this.

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Speaker 3: When you've lost the view, Crystal. But like, actually and seriously,

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Speaker 3: like the view is sort of I don't know the

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Speaker 3: best way to describe it, but maybe center left is

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Speaker 3: one way. They're just kind of like the most moderate Democrat,

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Speaker 3: Like that's probably a suburban, moderate, affluent Democrat viewership. And

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Speaker 3: if that's what you're seeing, if that's what the kind

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Speaker 3: of average suburban lean's left mom is watching in the

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Speaker 3: middle of the day, fiery rants at John Fetterman. Chuck

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Speaker 3: Schimmer is seriously in trouble, and the Democratic establishment is

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Speaker 3: seriously in trouble.

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Speaker 2: I think it's the beginning of the end for Schumer.

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Speaker 2: You know, I don't know if it'll be in a

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Speaker 2: primary in twenty twenty eight. To be honest with you,

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Speaker 2: I think think of AOC jumps in that primary fight.

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Speaker 2: I don't even know if he may just retire because

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Speaker 2: it would be embarrassing obviously to lose to her.

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Speaker 3: And you think about would Joe bid.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, he just seems to have a humiliation fetish.

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Speaker 2: So that's a different psychology that we'll have to analyze there.

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Speaker 2: But in any case with Schumer, assuming he doesn't have

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Speaker 2: a humiliation fetish, which you know, we don't know yet,

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Speaker 2: but but you know, I think certainly AOC would take

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Speaker 2: him out in a primary, and then there's probably other

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Speaker 2: New York New York state candidates who could easily take

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Speaker 2: him out in a primary as well. She's just the

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Speaker 2: best known and the one that people love to, you know,

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Speaker 2: love to to analyze, and I think she's certainly thinking

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Speaker 2: about it. You know, indications are she and her team

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Speaker 2: are debating do I run against Schumer or do I

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Speaker 2: actually run for president? And I don't think that they've

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Speaker 2: come to a decision in that regard. Personally, I think

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Speaker 2: she'd be a fantastic senator from New York, and again,

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Speaker 2: it would be a cake walk to defeed him if

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Speaker 2: he even bothers to try. And then you know, in

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Speaker 2: terms of the next leadership elections, you are going to

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Speaker 2: have a real revolt on your hands. There is going

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Speaker 2: to be mass pressure put on these Democratic senators to

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Speaker 2: go in a different direction. And you know, on MSNBC,

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Speaker 2: I've been watching it some of these past couple of

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Speaker 2: days because it's been kind of interesting to see where

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Speaker 2: they land. And the vast majority of them are furious

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Speaker 2: as well. You know, they are disgusted, they are shocked

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Speaker 2: that you know that they caved at this moment. I

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Speaker 2: talked yesterday about how Rachel Matta did her whole opening

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Speaker 2: rant on, like, guys, we just had the No King's protest,

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Speaker 2: the largest action literally in history. You had these election results,

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Speaker 2: and now is the time you cave when and you

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Speaker 2: literally got nothing for it? Like what the hell? And

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Speaker 2: she I don't know that I've ever really seen her

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Speaker 2: criticize the Democratic Party, certainly not in that forceful or

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Speaker 2: force right away. She's one to sort of like hint

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Speaker 2: in a direction, but that fully take a stand somewhere here.

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Speaker 2: She was taking a stand, and then she had Bernie

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Speaker 2: Sanders on as her gag to back it up. But

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Speaker 2: there was one MSNBC host, Lawrence O'Donnell, who comes on

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Speaker 2: right after Rachel Mattou, who did actually defend Chuck Schumer.

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Speaker 3: A lonely crying out well, very.

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Speaker 2: Very courageous of him at this point. Actually in a

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Speaker 2: certain way, it is let's go and take a listen

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Speaker 2: to the case that he was making for Schumer. This

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Speaker 2: is a four.

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Speaker 9: It might be easy to criticize Chuck Schumer. It is

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Speaker 9: easy to criticize Chuck Schumer. It's easy to make fun

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Speaker 9: of him. You can wish he were smoother, you can

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00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 9: wish he had all the smoothest of Barack Obama. It's

434
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 9: easy to criticize, but it is not easy to replace him.

435
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 9: It might be easy to call for his resignation, but

436
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 9: it is not easy to say who with a name

437
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 9: could do a better job.

438
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 2: It actually is easy to say that. I would say

439
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 2: Chris van Holland or Chris Murphy, either one of them

440
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: would do a better job. But I mean Chris van

441
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 2: Holland has really he in a certain way, is this

442
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 2: kind of unifying figure because he's this very mainstream democrat,

443
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 2: you know, in the firmament of the establishment of the party.

444
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 2: But he also was quite courageous and clever too, but

445
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: by the way, and creative when it came to kill

446
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 2: mar Abrego Garcia and leading the charge there when it's

447
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 2: come to Gaza and you know, going there and looking

448
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: at Okay, they're lying when they say that, you know

449
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 2: that the problem for a distribution is the un the

450
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 2: problem is these Raelis. And he's been very you know,

451
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 2: he's been very outspoken in that regard, and I think

452
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 2: has earned a lot of respect from progressives and liberals

453
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 2: who see him as someone who has stood up against

454
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 2: the Trump administration. But you know, he's going to be

455
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 2: able to do the fundraising and do the party insider

456
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 2: stuff as well. So personally, I think he would be

457
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 2: a fantastic choice. Now he's another one who may be

458
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 2: sniffing around at potentially running for president. I believe he

459
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,199
Speaker 2: had either a New Hampshire or an Iowa trip or

460
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 2: something in that regard. In my opinion, you know, he's

461
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,719
Speaker 2: he's the type. He's not like a super charismatic figure,

462
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 2: but he seems to be clever and principled and have

463
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: some decent strategic instincts. So to me, that would be,

464
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 2: you know, his best use would be in something like

465
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,479
Speaker 2: leadership in the Senate. So the idea of it Chuck Schumer.

466
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just farcical on its face that Check

467
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 2: Schumer's so so exceptional, how could we possibly replace him?

468
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 2: It's like, literally, what planet do you live on? I

469
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: could pick a random person off of the street, and

470
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 2: I think they would do a better job at this

471
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 2: point with the role of leadership that the base actually

472
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 2: wants their party leaders to serve at this point, well.

473
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 3: Right, And I mean part of I'm just again thinking

474
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:43,360
Speaker 3: back to Tea Party shutdowns. Leadership never really wanted Tea

475
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 3: Party shutdowns, like they were dragged into it by Ted

476
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 3: Cruz and whomever else. But they didn't have all those

477
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,400
Speaker 3: like specific attainable goals outlined. In a lot of cases,

478
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: it was kind of just for the purpose of causing

479
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 3: trouble and getting like sorting a wrench into the gear

480
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 3: of washing. And what's interesting about this is Democrats created

481
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 3: a pretty specific benchmark that they wanted to achieve with

482
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 3: the shutdown, which was healthcare. And there's nothing that Democrats

483
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: have more of an upper hand on than healthcare, because

484
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 3: Republicans have nothing in terms of note What is Mike

485
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 3: Johnson saying right now, like we have notebooks full of

486
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 3: plans or something like that. They got a loving and

487
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 3: after all of that concepts of a plan. After all

488
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 3: of that, they get like when you spend, when you

489
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 3: set that specific of a benchmark and you walk away

490
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 3: like for really no, Like the timing makes no sense.

491
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 3: It's not as though, you know, the credits were on

492
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 3: the table. Again, it's not until the end of the year.

493
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:44,959
Speaker 3: They expire at the end of the year. That's why

494
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 3: this is coming up right now. So it's not like

495
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 3: it was within a couple of days or anything like that.

496
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 3: Speaking of the timing, let's try to figure out what

497
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,639
Speaker 3: it might have been. Because the Lever has some reporting

498
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 3: about the airline industry, which has swamped Washington, d C.

499
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 3: Over the last couple of weeks. The next element up

500
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:06,959
Speaker 3: on the screen just going to town lobbying people, and

501
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 3: this was a report on the Lever that found correlation

502
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 3: between airlines favorite Democrats and who voted to end the shutdown.

503
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 3: Crystal and Political Influence had a great report last week

504
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 3: as well about the airline industry just like as soon

505
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 3: as Duffy announced the flight reductions or requested the flight reductions,

506
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 3: that sent the lobbyists for the airline industry into overdrive.

507
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,439
Speaker 3: And I think that probably is as good of an

508
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 3: explanation as any for why they voted pretty randomly on Sunday.

509
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 3: I mean, it seemed as though even Democratic insiders were surprised,

510
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 3: maybe not Schumer himself, but it didn't seem like anyone

511
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 3: actually realized this was about to be on the brink

512
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 3: of them siding with Republicans, and that's exactly what happened.

513
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 3: It seems like maybe it was the airlines.

514
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 2: I mean, people forget how powerful the airline lobby is

515
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 2: in DC. You know anytime, remember during COVID, like they

516
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 2: always got their custom bay allowance. You know, they're always

517
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: in the ear of legislators. And then what Zerota and

518
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 2: his team at the lever did is just to literally

519
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 2: look at Okay, let's take out look at the FBC contributions.

520
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 2: Let's pull up the history and lo and behold, seven

521
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 2: out of the eight of them in particular, have taken

522
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 2: large sums from the industry, which means that you're going

523
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: to be in constant communication with them, and then one

524
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 2: in particular, Jackie Rosen of Nevada, is one of the

525
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 2: largest recipients of airline lobby cash, So there's no doubt

526
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: that money is influential, impactful in terms of their thinking.

527
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 2: The other thing that I've been pointing to that I

528
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 2: really think it's important for people to keep in mind

529
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 2: is Trump's threat to nuke the filibuster. Republicans hated that,

530
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 2: but these type of corporate democrats also hate that because

531
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,239
Speaker 2: even if they publicly claim they want to get rid

532
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 2: of the filibuster, the truth of the matter is they

533
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 2: love having an excuse for why they can't deliver, and

534
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: the filibuster is the best excuse they've ever had. It is,

535
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 2: in a sense existential for them in order to maintain

536
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 2: this pretense that they would love to deliver for working people.

537
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 2: They would love to deliver for Americans, but they just

538
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 2: can't because of this terrible rule called the filibuster, and

539
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 2: therefore we can never actually achieve the things that we

540
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 2: totally promise you we actually want to achieve. So I

541
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 2: think that was the other piece, because that likely was

542
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,880
Speaker 2: the other way that this ends. Where Trump puts enough

543
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: pressure on the Republicans where it's like, no, you are

544
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 2: going to get rid of the filibuster. They cave to

545
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 2: Trump and nuke the filibuster, And in my opinion, that's

546
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 2: a better outcome and in my opinion, and I think

547
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 2: the base of the Democratic Party would have accepted that too,

548
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 2: because then it's like, Okay, you fought, you did everything

549
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 2: you could, and even if they ended up with nothing

550
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 2: on healthcare, it's like, you know, you took it as

551
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 2: far as you possibly could. You did not give up

552
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 2: the fight, and you press the case, you put health

553
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: care on the table. You know, you really put the

554
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 2: Republicans in a difficult spot. And now the filibuster is gone.

555
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 2: And guess what if Democrats take back power is increasingly

556
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,719
Speaker 2: possible at least in the Senate in the next elections,

557
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 2: then you're going to be able to pass some of

558
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 2: your priorities that in the past you've always said you

559
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 2: could never achieve. You could get Puerto Rico as a state,

560
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: you could get DC as a state, you could pack

561
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court, you could pass legislation that actually will

562
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 2: benefit working people. So I think that filibuster threat is

563
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 2: another thing that freaked them out because these corporate type

564
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: Democrats need that existentially need that as their excuse for

565
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 2: why they can never actually really do anything big with

566
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: the power that they have.

567
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, that's exactly right, I think, because you know,

568
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 3: what's made me come around on the filibuster even recently.

569
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 3: I always kind of go back and forth on the philibuster.

570
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 3: What's made me come about coming around on it recently

571
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 3: is that it's actually healthy for the country to see

572
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,959
Speaker 3: more direct consequences of our votes. And I don't mean

573
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 3: consequences in a negative way, but actually it could be positive,

574
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 3: could be negative, that when you vote on something, you

575
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 3: see it happen. The philbuster is not like in the Constitution.

576
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 3: It's not like part of the part of the system

577
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: that the Framers designed. And so if you have a

578
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 3: majority of the House in the Senate and a president

579
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 3: to sign a piece of legislation, then the country feels

580
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 3: what they voted for, as opposed to, you know, feeling

581
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 3: that like constantly getting thwarted. Now, there are a lot

582
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 3: of other things that I would you do in addition

583
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 3: to nudie the billbuster to make sure that the country

584
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 3: was running. If I could wave my magic wand in

585
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 3: a way that I think made sense and was helpful,

586
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 3: But that one in particular, that means people would actually

587
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 3: have to face votes, so they would have to face

588
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 3: votes on the floor of the Senate. The senators would

589
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 3: have to face votes on the floor the Senate for

590
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 3: things that they said they would support, Medicare for All

591
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 3: being a pretty obvious example, and then they would have

592
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 3: to face votes from their voters who say, you told

593
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 3: us you were going to vote for I mean, John

594
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 3: McCain is the best example. You told us you were

595
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 3: going to repeal and replace how many times and then

596
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 3: you voted no on the rapill and replace. Uh that

597
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 3: those actually having those votes and actually seeing more feeling

598
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 3: more putting less of a buffer between what people vote

599
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 3: for and what the country looks like is probably helpful

600
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 3: at this point.

601
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 2: I agree completely. And the other piece is, you know,

602
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 2: because you have a legislature that really is not interested

603
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 2: in governing, that has helped to help to create the

604
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 2: dynamic of an executive branch that just done does everything,

605
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: and so it creates I mean, Trump is responsible for,

606
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 2: you know, the consolidation of power in the insane ways

607
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 2: that he uses and abuses his power. But one of

608
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 2: the things that sort of greases the skids in that

609
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 2: direction is if you have a filibuster that makes them

610
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:49,239
Speaker 2: impossible for Congress to do anything, then increasingly you have

611
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 2: presidents reaching for the pen using executive power, and Congress

612
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 2: just sort of like, I mean, they just they just

613
00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 2: see their power completely to the president and they're happy. Yeah,

614
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,479
Speaker 2: they might not have any Yeah, they're happy to not

615
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 2: have any actual legislative responsibility. That's easier for them, that's

616
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 2: more comfortable for them. So I do think that the

617
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 2: filibuster has sort of been an under discussed part of

618
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 2: why this thing came to an end the way that

619
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 2: it in the in my opinion, ridiculous, pathetic way that

620
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 2: it ultimately did.

621
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 3: Gang of eight. Then you have Obama doing doco with

622
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 3: executive orders. This is it happens all the time, and

623
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 3: the Senators then can escape the backlash. So we may

624
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 3: have gotten something good out of it. If if dem

625
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 3: said continued to hold out, maybe Truff would have had

626
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: them nuke the philibuster. I don't know. I'm skeptical. Senate

627
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 3: Republicans were so so averse to that for the reasons

628
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 3: we just discussed. Chris, Let's talk about jobs. We have

629
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 3: new job numbers from ADP. We can go ahead and

630
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 3: put the one up on the screens to a tear

631
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 3: sheet from the Wall Street Journal, which is relying on

632
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: the ADP numbers as well. The headline here ADP Estimates

633
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 3: estimates private sector was losing jobs in October, although we

634
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 3: don't totally know whether an accurate reflection because we don't

635
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 3: have government numbers right now. In crystal reaction to these

636
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 3: ADP numbers, I'm not particularly surprised by them. What do

637
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 3: you make.

638
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 2: About Yeah, I mean, you know, we've been seeing things

639
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: trending in this direction for a while, and I think

640
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 2: that Trump has thought that he could. Look Trump is

641
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 2: a master at bending reality, like bending perceptions of reality,

642
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: and I think he believed that he could do that

643
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 2: with the economy as well. He could point to the

644
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 2: stock market. We've had the government shutdowns, so we're not

645
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 2: getting government numbers, so we have to rely on numbers

646
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: like ADP. And we've been tracking here how people feel

647
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 2: about the economy. Some seventy percent plus say that the

648
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 2: economy is poor. That is a total reversal of where

649
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 2: things were in first term, where they had all sorts

650
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 2: of issues with Trump. His approval rating was underwater, but

651
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: they still felt the economy is really good. And I

652
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 2: think that is like the central reason ultimately that he

653
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: ends up back in the White House. So you have

654
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 2: a complete flip of that people in their own lives

655
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 2: are experiencing a lot of economic hardship. And then we've

656
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 2: also been tracking this slew of corporate layoffs that have

657
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 2: been coming down the pike, and you know, it has

658
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 2: been we have been moving in this direction for a while,

659
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,439
Speaker 2: but I really think it's coming to a head now.

660
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 2: Where it used to be the general sense was, Okay,

661
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 2: if corporate America is doing well, then Americans are probably

662
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 2: doing pretty well too. Those two things have become completely disconnected.

663
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 2: The best thing you can do as a corporate boss

664
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 2: is fire a bunch of people. Your stock price is

665
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 2: going to go up. And so the fortunes of corporations

666
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 2: are actually now inversely related to the fortunes of ordinary Americans.

667
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 2: That is the reality of where we live now. And

668
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: so yesterday Soger and I covered how consumer sentiment is

669
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: at historic lows clows and as we go into the

670
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: Thanksgiving and holiday season, et cetera, you know, really bad

671
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 2: place to be. Meanwhile, corporate sentiment is near all time highs.

672
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 2: I mean that tells you everything about the tale of

673
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: two economies and about the way that now what benefits

674
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 2: corporate America is directly advantageous for them and disadvantageous for

675
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 2: your average Americans. So I don't think you know whether

676
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 2: these ADP numbers are exactly precise. I think they are

677
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 2: probably directly correct that there was either very little job

678
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 2: growth or actual job losses. This is also for the

679
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 2: time period when the government was shut down, and the

680
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 2: government is a huge part of our economy as well.

681
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 10: Well.

682
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and so the ADP numbers, I mean, it's crazy

683
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 3: right now, the way that we are trying to understand

684
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 3: what's happening without the usual information. So payrolls firm, So

685
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 3: the ADP is estimating the private sector, according to the Journal,

686
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 3: was shedding two hundred and fifty jobs a week in

687
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 3: the four weeks through October twenty five. Now, it also

688
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 3: says last week in a separate data series, ADPs mean

689
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 3: it that the private sector added forty two thousand jobs

690
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 3: in October, but that figure uses a different methodology and

691
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 3: tended to replicate the government's monthly jobs report more closely.

692
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 3: So it's just it's a mess just trying to understand

693
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 3: even what's happening in the economy. But the consumer sentiment

694
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 3: versus corporate sentiment marker is a pretty good one, and

695
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 3: the well, it's a good one in terms of taking

696
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 3: the temperature of the public and in terms of Trump

697
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: not understanding and not being able to explain away consumer

698
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 3: sentiment or assuage consumer sentiment. I think that's really really true, Crystal.

699
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 3: It's a problem that the Biden administration had, and they

700
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 3: kind of went for greedflation for a little bit, but

701
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 3: in a very half hearted way to say we understand,

702
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,240
Speaker 3: like yes, we're in charge of the economy, but we understand,

703
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 3: you know, to the extent any government is in charge

704
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 3: of the economy, or any presidents in charge of the economy,

705
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 3: but we understand what's going going on, Like find another scapegoat,

706
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 3: et cetera. But this was half hearted. And now for Trump,

707
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 3: it's like he's not even looking for escape escapegoat other

708
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 3: than Biden. You just keep saying we inherited about economy.

709
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 3: Once you're year into your presidency, which she almost says,

710
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 3: you really have to stop setting that line about the

711
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 3: economy you inherited because people are. It's just going to

712
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: piss people off. Not only does it stop working, it's

713
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 3: also just going to piss people off. So here's how

714
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 3: House Speaker Mike Johnson talked about the idea, all the

715
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 3: ideas that Republicans have to reduce healthcare costs which are

716
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 3: going up, up, up for Americans. This is B two.

717
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 11: Subsidizing the insurance companies is not the answer because it

718
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 11: just drives the cost up even further. So we need

719
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 11: to look at the root causes. The Republican Party is

720
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 11: the party that is working on that has been working

721
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 11: on it, and has more ideas going forward. We've got

722
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 11: to bring down the costs, and you can do that

723
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 11: in a responsible way that also increases access and quality

724
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 11: of care. And we've got we've got notebooks full of

725
00:37:58,640 --> 00:37:59,919
Speaker 11: ideas on how to do that. We got a book

726
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:01,280
Speaker 11: sensus around it.

727
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 3: That's news to me they have notebooks of ideas of

728
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 3: how to do this, Crystal, because if they had notebooks,

729
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 3: we would probably expect to hear a little bit more

730
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 3: about what's in those notebooks. And all we can hear

731
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 3: about is the notebooks.

732
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 2: Now, that's right. I'm having major flashbacks submit Romney and

733
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 2: as binders full of women. But we'll never know whether

734
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 2: he really had those binders or not, now, I guess.

735
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 2: But yeah, with the notebooks of ideas, it also harkens

736
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 2: back to Trump saying, you know, we've got a concept

737
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 2: of a plan on healthcare. The truth of the matter

738
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 2: is Republicans have given up on healthcare and they just

739
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 2: decided the best thing to do is to just hope

740
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 2: that nobody talks about it. Like litour in twenty twenty four,

741
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: it worked, right, Kamla didn't really bring it up because

742
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 2: Democrats also had kind of given up on healthcare. You know,

743
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 2: Biden's theoretical plan was a public option, which I do

744
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 2: think would be a significant improvement over the system that

745
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 2: we have. Of course, I support Medicare for all, you know,

746
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 2: I think that's the direction that we should go in.

747
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 2: But you know, the Republicans have a point when it

748
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 2: comes to the subsidies just going straight to the health

749
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 2: insurance companies. They have a point about that. I mean,

750
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 2: that's been my criticism of Obamacare from the beginning, is

751
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 2: you actually have to confront the health insurance, you have

752
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 2: to confront big Pharma, you have to confront the hospital

753
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 2: system and the private equity barons that are rolling up

754
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 2: those hospital systems, like you actually are going to have

755
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 2: to confront capital if you're going to deal with this thing,

756
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 2: and there is zero indication that Republicans want to do

757
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 2: that at all. So to the extent they ever float anything,

758
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: it's like truent price transparency. Sure, fine, Does anyone believe

759
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: that that's going to solve the problem the thing that

760
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 2: Trump floated of? Okay, well, instead of giving the subsidies

761
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 2: to the health insurance, we're going to give it to

762
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 2: you guys in your health savings account. Okay, fine, But

763
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 2: the reality of what's going to happen there that doesn't

764
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 2: deal with prices at all, It doesn't deal with the

765
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 2: underlying problems at all whatsoever. And what you likely end

766
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 2: up happening happening then is even fewer people inside the

767
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 2: health insurance marketplace, which leads again to this death spiral

768
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 2: situation that people that are still there are older and sicker,

769
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 2: and guess what, that raises premiums for everyone, So it

770
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 2: could actually accelerate the collapse of the system we have,

771
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 2: which look, maybe that's something we should be cheering for

772
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 2: at this point, Like I'm not really you know, I'm

773
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 2: not an accelerationist typically, but something apparently catastrophic is going

774
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 2: to have to happen before legislators are really willing to

775
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 2: confront capital and deal with the system. But yeah, I mean,

776
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 2: you listen to Mike Johnson talk and I'm just hearing

777
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 2: Marjorie Taylor Green in my head saying, why do I

778
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 2: have to be in like a skiff to, you know,

779
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: to even stiff what a Republican healthcare plan is? And

780
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: I think it was again the ladies of view that

781
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 2: were like, well, maybe there's not one, and she said,

782
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 2: I think that's the real truth. And of course obviously

783
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 2: that is the real truth. They are not going to

784
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 2: do anything to try to tackle healthcare. They're just going

785
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: to try to change the subject. Again, that is the

786
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 2: actual strategy.

787
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, they got nothing's It is the biggest failure of

788
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 3: the conservative project in the last what fifteen years. When

789
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 3: they could run on repeal and replace, it became a

790
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 3: replacement in and of itself for an actual policy because

791
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 3: it was such a useful political bludgeon and hammer for

792
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 3: so long that by the time they had the power

793
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 3: to actually repeal and replace, it was abundantly obvious there

794
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 3: was no consensus plan, and there was no good plan.

795
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 3: There was no consensus plan because there actually was no

796
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 3: good plan that people agreed on. And to your point

797
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 3: about the Trump idea of giving subsidies directly to people,

798
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 3: that's basically what we do rather to insurance companies. That's

799
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 3: basically what we do with college tuition. And I know

800
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 3: we're going to talk about this a little bit later

801
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 3: in the show, just on the general question of affordability.

802
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 3: But that has not brought down the cost of college

803
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 3: tuition in any way whatsoever. So it's not a long

804
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 3: term solution. I don't know how interested Donald Trump is

805
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 3: in a structural long term solution. I don't think anybody

806
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 3: is under the illusion or is under the illusion or delusion.

807
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 3: You could probably call it that Donald Trump wants to

808
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 3: do like structural long term fix to the healthcare system.

809
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,760
Speaker 3: He's never run on some type of like comprehensive fix

810
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 3: to Obamacare. Just you know, repeal replaced, everyone will have healthcare.

811
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 3: So there there is no Republican plan waiting in the

812
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 3: wings that Trump could like shepherd through like a good

813
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 3: old tax cut bill. There's nothing like that for healthcare.

814
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 3: And you know what, it matters to every single American family,

815
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 3: normal American family, not ultra wealthy American family on a

816
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 3: monthly basis. Even if you're upper middle class, your healthcare

817
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 3: costs are out of freaking control.

818
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 2: That's exactly right. Yeah, no, I mean Trump, all he

819
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 2: knows how to do is like brand plays and gimmicks.

820
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 2: That's it. So, you know, someone brings him fifty year

821
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 2: mortgagees like and with a meme that appeals to his ego,

822
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 2: and he's like, yes, let's do that, and everyone absolutely

823
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 2: hates it because he never thinks beyond like this compares

824
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 2: me favorably to FDR. Let's do it. The fake you know,

825
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 2: two thousand dollars stimulus checks that he's you know, claiming

826
00:42:57,600 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: he's going to send out, which is one hundred percent

827
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 2: never ever going to happen. And already his officials are like, well,

828
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 2: what we really mean by that is the theoretical savings

829
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 2: that you achieved through lowering the price of avocados or whatever.

830
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, So, I mean that's really all

831
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 2: he knows that. Now he's good at that branding and

832
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 2: those gimmicks write no tacks on tips. I think that

833
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 2: was very appealing in the election. You know, I think

834
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 2: people liked that idea, But if you're actually going to

835
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 2: govern and deal with complicated, entrenched systems and entrenched interests,

836
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 2: you're going to need a little bit more. You're going

837
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 2: to need an ideology, You're going to need some backbone

838
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 2: and some will to do it. You're going to need

839
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:41,240
Speaker 2: some actual, like policy knowledge, and that is never ever

840
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 2: going to be this man who was so stupid that

841
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 2: he would float something like a fifty year mortgage, which

842
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 2: literally enraged absolutely everyone, as an actual plan for affordable housing.

843
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to get to that in just one moment.

844
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen to Kevin Hassett here, who's the

845
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 3: director of the National Economic Council, talking about if the

846
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 3: shutdown had cantinued, he was on face the nation over

847
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 3: the weekend, there would have been a negative quarter. While that,

848
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:07,439
Speaker 3: I guess based will happen.

849
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 12: Here's B three Golden Sacks. They have a top economic team,

850
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 12: and they're estimating that we've already knocked about one and

851
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,399
Speaker 12: a half percent off of GDP. I think that number

852
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 12: is probably low if we keep going even a couple

853
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 12: more weeks, because there's going to be a massive amount

854
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 12: of air disruption, especially around the holidays. And you know,

855
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 12: one of these things every daw and ed when we're

856
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 12: talking at economics, you and I we talk about seasonal

857
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 12: adjustments and things like that. But the fact is that Thanksgiving,

858
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 12: that Thanksgiving time is one of the hottest times of

859
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 12: the year for the economy. It's you know, Black Friday

860
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 12: and all that kind of stuff. And if people aren't

861
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,600
Speaker 12: traveling at that moment, then we really could be looking

862
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 12: at a negative quarter for the fourth quarter.

863
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 2: All right, And here's a very smiling when he says that,

864
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 2: I don't know.

865
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 3: Here here's a tear shot from Reuters. The headline is

866
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 3: US fourth quarter GDP could be negative if shut down

867
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 3: drags on. White House Economic Advisor says just about what

868
00:44:56,719 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 3: he mentioned there on Face the Nation US crystal. Some

869
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 3: of this could be getting at the pressure that Democrats

870
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 3: were underhearing from. I mean, he's citing Goldman Sachs, So

871
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 3: I'm sure Democrats were hearing from some of their friends

872
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,399
Speaker 3: at places like Goldman Sachs about some of those very

873
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 3: same numbers. And you know, we were talking about the

874
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 3: airlines pressuring Dems to cave on the shutdown. I'm sure

875
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 3: this worked its magic with some of those Democrats as well.

876
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, no doubt about it. And you know, for a

877
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,959
Speaker 2: top Whitehouse official to be saying we could be looking

878
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 2: at negative GDP growth in the fourth quarter is pretty stunning.

879
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 2: We also had Scott Bessant previously saying, effectively admitting that

880
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 2: some sectors of the economy are already in a recession.

881
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: So even this administration, which is happy to spin in

882
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 2: July about you know, basically everything, is having to acknowledge

883
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 2: some measure of reality because it's just becoming too obvious

884
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: to you know, whether you're someone who's Wall Street looking

885
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 2: at the numbers, looking at activity, whether you're a regular

886
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 2: person and like just going about your life, it's becoming

887
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,479
Speaker 2: too obvious to deny. And it's worth saying in terms

888
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 2: of the shutdown impact. First of all, the government is

889
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 2: still technically shut down right now. You know, I live

890
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:13,840
Speaker 2: in a town where the most of the economic activity

891
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 2: is centered around this naval base that does a lot

892
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 2: of civilian research. A lot of people have been furloughed there.

893
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: I'm getting questions of gymnastics, but like, so when are

894
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 2: we getting paid again? When is that happening? I don't know,

895
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 2: I have no idea. So in any case, it'll be

896
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 2: a while even before things are back up and fully running,

897
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 2: and then the impact in Sean Duffy admitted this, the

898
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 2: impact of the airports is going to be long lasting.

899
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 2: We were already in a dire situation with a lack

900
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,720
Speaker 2: of air traffic controllers. Now you've had people who couldn't

901
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:44,960
Speaker 2: go this long without a paycheck, and they laughed and

902
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 2: they're gone or they're just sick of being treated in

903
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 2: this way. Like you know what I thought working for

904
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:52,839
Speaker 2: the government meant that I had a steady and reliable job,

905
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,839
Speaker 2: and I clearly I don't, so I'm going to go

906
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 2: and do something else with my life. Those are going

907
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 2: to be long lasting impacts that are going to I

908
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:07,359
Speaker 2: think bleed over into holiday Thanksgiving travel. It's just right

909
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 2: around the corner. So you know, has it to be

910
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 2: sounding the alarm here about negative GDP growth? I think

911
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,919
Speaker 2: is quite exceptional. And the last thing I'll say about

912
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 2: that is we've of course been tracking how almost all

913
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 2: of the GDP growth anyway has just been this giant

914
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 2: bet giant speculative bet on ai has been the entirety

915
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 2: of GDP growth anyway that has been covering up a

916
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 2: lot of other underlying problems in the economy, including in

917
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 2: other you know, corporate stocks, consumer consumer centered stocks in particular,

918
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 2: all of which are underperforming stock indexes in you know,

919
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 2: in Europe and other parts of the world. So you know,

920
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 2: if even with the AI hysteria, you are having negative

921
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 2: GDP growth, that's a really ugly place to be.

922
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 3: And I wonder, actually, if we do see that they

923
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 3: blame the shutdown, if that's what looking back on it,

924
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 3: if that becomes the line for the administration is, you know,

925
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 3: they're looking to either say we inherited this economy. It's

926
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 3: such a mess. But there's there's so much going on

927
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 3: in this economy that you and Soccer have covered recently.

928
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put this next element up on

929
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 3: the screen. This is a CNBC report on ghost job postings,

930
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 3: which the headline here says are adding another layer of

931
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 3: uncertainty to the stalling jobs picture. Since the beginning of

932
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, job openings have outnumbered hires by more

933
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 3: than two point two million a month, according to Bureau

934
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 3: of Labor Statistics data That points to ghost jobs that

935
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 3: never seems to get that never seem to get filled.

936
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 3: This is a really shocking report, Crystal, because it's one

937
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 3: of those things you just it's not even on your radar,

938
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 3: and then when you look at it. This is a

939
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 3: part of the article. Job openings have generally been on

940
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 3: the decline since peaking above twelve million in March twenty

941
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 3: twenty two, when opportunities outnumbered available workers by better than

942
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 3: two to one. In August, latest month through which data

943
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 3: is available because of the government shutdown, opening's totaled more

944
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:07,879
Speaker 3: than seven point two million, well hires were just five

945
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:11,440
Speaker 3: point one million. The ratio of vacancies to workers was

946
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:15,240
Speaker 3: about even. What did you make of this, Crystal, because

947
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 3: to me, it just seems to be another wrinkle in

948
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 3: the enormously complicated picture of an economy that feels like

949
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 3: a total bubble right now.

950
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels fake in a lot of ways, and

951
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:29,240
Speaker 2: so ghost jobs make sense as part of that picture.

952
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 2: You know, we covered statistics about how many more job

953
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 2: applications new college graduates are having to put out just

954
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 2: an astonishing number, and then even with that additional effort

955
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 2: put in for worse results where they're not getting as

956
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 2: many jobs, the unemployment rate for new college grads is

957
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 2: going up, and so you know, people who are going

958
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 2: on whatever the resume what is it? Indeed, what are

959
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 2: the resume websites? Now I forgot when I was coming

960
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 2: out of college. It was Monster, I think was the

961
00:49:57,600 --> 00:49:59,319
Speaker 2: one that we went to. But in any case, they're

962
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 2: looking at these job openings and it's like, Okay, I've

963
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 2: applied for a million of these who is even getting

964
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 2: these jobs? And apparently in some significant number the answer

965
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,759
Speaker 2: is no one. These are just sort of hanging out

966
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 2: there in the ether, fake job postings that never get filled.

967
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 2: So you have this perception of like, oh, there's all

968
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:20,359
Speaker 2: these job openings and you know, surely one of them,

969
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 2: surely one of them will be interested in me, at

970
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:26,760
Speaker 2: least for a callback. But the reality is that they're actually,

971
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 2: I don't know, just they're just been hanging out there

972
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 2: and no one bothered to delete them. They like to

973
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 2: keep them out there to have resumes coming in in

974
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: case at a you know, last minute notice, they need

975
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 2: to bring in someone for some purpose or other. But

976
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 2: I think for a lot of people who've been in

977
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 2: the job market, it will probably ring very true to

978
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 2: them that this is what's going on.

979
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:47,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right, And This is also part

980
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 3: of the data package that economists used to understand where

981
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 3: the economy is going. And some of the reactions in

982
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 3: the CNBC story here are like, well, that's not helpful

983
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 3: because right now we're trying to act I understand where

984
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 3: things are going, what the real story is. And it's

985
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 3: a reminder that honestly the experts here don't exactly know

986
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,400
Speaker 3: what the real story is, let alone with changes in

987
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 3: an immigration enforcement and then changes in artificial intelligence, how

988
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 3: rapidly that is sweeping different professions. So things do not

989
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 3: feel good, that is for sure.

990
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, indeed, and.

991
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 3: Maybe that explains the MAGA revolt we're about to cover.

992
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:33,880
Speaker 3: There are rumblings of impatience with the Trump administration here

993
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 3: in Washington, d C. Among some people on the right now.

994
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 3: Of course, there's always going to be some rumblings of

995
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 3: discontent with any political party. But I'm just here to

996
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 3: convey this is getting to be a little bit louder

997
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 3: by the day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett was on Morning

998
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 3: Joe yesterday and asked about that Argentinian beef bailout. Dare

999
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 3: we call it a bailout? Not the beef bail out?

1000
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 3: I'm so there was the beef bailout. This is the

1001
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 3: the market bailout. Here we go. This is Scott Bessett

1002
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 3: responding to some questions. Listen to exactly the language that

1003
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 3: he uses and doesn't use.

1004
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 12: How does a twenty billion dollar bailout of Argentina help Americans?

1005
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:21,439
Speaker 3: Do you know what a swap line is? It's currency swap?

1006
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:23,840
Speaker 10: Yes, yes, but what what is that that you're the

1007
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 10: treasure secretary?

1008
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:24,879
Speaker 9: Yes?

1009
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 10: But why would you call it a bailout? I think

1010
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 10: that is how In most bailouts, you don't make money.

1011
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 10: The US government made money. We used our financial we

1012
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 10: use our financial balance sheet to stabilize the government. Are

1013
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:41,320
Speaker 10: one of our great allies in Latin America. During an election,

1014
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:46,279
Speaker 10: the president there won the landslide. The government's going to

1015
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 10: make money, and I would rather use peace through economic

1016
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 10: strength than have to be shooting at Narco boats coming

1017
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 10: offshore if the government collapsed.

1018
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:01,280
Speaker 3: All right, well there were some you know friends.

1019
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 2: He's got bitchy, so bitchy there right, Well, do you

1020
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 2: even know what a swap line is? Why would you

1021
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 2: call that a bailout? Define it? Define swap like he

1022
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 2: thinks he's got such a gotcha there, But in reality,

1023
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 2: I mean it is a bailout. That is an appropriate

1024
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 2: term to you. Yeah, both can be true, like.

1025
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:22,280
Speaker 3: Make money on a quote bailout?

1026
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:26,360
Speaker 2: Yes, right, even if your technical financial engineering you know,

1027
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:30,520
Speaker 2: has a different term as well, that doesn't change the dynamics. Okay,

1028
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:31,840
Speaker 2: you have a swap line for them. Do you have

1029
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 2: a swap line for other countries? No, you don't, right,

1030
00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 2: because you specifically wanted to prop up this country, because

1031
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 2: you Scott besn't have You know, your buddy's money is

1032
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 2: on the line with regard to these hedge funds that

1033
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 2: had bet big on Argentina, and by the way, you

1034
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 2: wanted to intervene in their upcoming elections, which you did

1035
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:54,360
Speaker 2: successfully and helped to forestall what looked to be incoming

1036
00:53:54,400 --> 00:53:58,319
Speaker 2: electoral losses for Javier and Malay. So like, no one is,

1037
00:53:58,360 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 2: no one is buying this bullshit.

1038
00:53:59,880 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 3: The reason that I slipped up and said beef bailout

1039
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 3: as I was setting up the segment is that that

1040
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:07,840
Speaker 3: was also part of this right is people were annoyed

1041
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:12,400
Speaker 3: with the use of fungible taxpair dollars going specifically to Argentina.

1042
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,799
Speaker 3: But then when Donald Trump mentioned potentially starting to import

1043
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:23,320
Speaker 3: some modest amount of Argentinian beef. MAGA was furious. MAHA

1044
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 3: was furious. I wrote a story about it over at Unheard,

1045
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 3: just tracking everyone who had come out and was just

1046
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 3: completely beside themselves with this what they saw as a

1047
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 3: betrayal of particularly small American farmers. Now, obviously the American

1048
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 3: beef industry was annoyed by that period, but there are

1049
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:46,680
Speaker 3: a lot of small American farms that have put some

1050
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 3: stock in MAGA and the Trump movement hoping to get

1051
00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:52,359
Speaker 3: a little bit of help out of it. And we're

1052
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:56,880
Speaker 3: just completely caught off guard by that proposal to import

1053
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 3: any Argentinian beef, period, because they see themselves as being

1054
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 3: in need of help from the US government and getting

1055
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:08,880
Speaker 3: basically nothing. Now, Donald Trump was also grilled by Laura

1056
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 3: Ingram and what was obviously a pretty tough interview and

1057
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 3: actually a contentious interview at certain points like this one,

1058
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 3: maybe the most contentious point of the interview on H

1059
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:22,840
Speaker 3: one B Visas. This has set off another firestorm on

1060
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 3: X Again, this is just social media where a lot

1061
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 3: of the elite discourse happens. So does it trickle into

1062
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 3: polling soon? Maybe not. We'll have to see but this

1063
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 3: is what Trump said about H one B visas CE one.

1064
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 6: There's never going to be a country like what we

1065
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 6: have right now. And does that the Republicans have to

1066
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 6: talk about it a lot?

1067
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:43,879
Speaker 13: And does that mean the H one B visa thing

1068
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 13: will not be a big priority for your administration because

1069
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:49,279
Speaker 13: if you want to raise wages for American workers, you

1070
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:52,240
Speaker 13: can't flood the country with tens of thousands or hundreds

1071
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:52,840
Speaker 13: of thousands of.

1072
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 6: Foreign Also, do have to bring in talent when we're

1073
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:56,560
Speaker 6: gone to.

1074
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 13: Be a talent, we don't have talented people.

1075
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 6: You don't have you don't have certain talents, and you

1076
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:04,880
Speaker 6: have to people have to learn. You can't take people

1077
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 6: off an unemployment like an unemployment line and say I'm

1078
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:09,799
Speaker 6: going to put you into a factory who we're going

1079
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 6: to make missiles or I'm going.

1080
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:13,759
Speaker 10: To put do we ever do it before? Well, I'll

1081
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 10: give you an example.

1082
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 6: In Georgia they raided because they wanted illegal immigrants. They

1083
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 6: had people from from South Korea that made batteries all

1084
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 6: their lives. You know, making batteries are very complicated. It's

1085
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 6: not an easy thing and very dangerous. A lot of explosions,

1086
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 6: a lot of problems, they had like five or six

1087
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:36,919
Speaker 6: hundred people early stages to make batteries and to teach

1088
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 6: people how to do it. Well, they wanted them to

1089
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,479
Speaker 6: get out of the country. You're going to need that lure.

1090
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 6: I mean, I know you and I disagree on this.

1091
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 6: You can't just say a country's coming in, going to

1092
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 6: invest ten billion dollars to build a plant and to

1093
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 6: take people off an unemployment line who haven't worked in

1094
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 6: five years, and they're going to start making their missiles.

1095
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 9: It doesn't work that way.

1096
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 3: So that's happening. As people are also, like the interview

1097
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 3: airing as people on the right are also furious about

1098
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 3: the proposal for fifty year mortgages, which Donald Trump had

1099
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:09,759
Speaker 3: to defend to Laura Ingram in that interview as well.

1100
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 3: And he did basically defend it in that interview to

1101
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:13,520
Speaker 3: Laura Ingram as well. One point he said, it's not

1102
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 3: a big deal. We're going from forty year to fifty

1103
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 3: year mortgages, and Ingram jumped in and said, no, thirty

1104
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 3: year mortgages to fifty year mortgages.

1105
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 2: Hu.

1106
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 7: Yeah.

1107
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 3: And so here's a post that I just noticed hanging

1108
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:30,080
Speaker 3: around some group chats yesterday. This is from Savannah Hernandez,

1109
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 3: who is a contributor with Turning Point USA. She posted

1110
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 3: this long x almost essay. It's that long.

1111
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 2: She says, I'm tired ackmanesque.

1112
00:57:40,120 --> 00:57:43,919
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, amesque. She pulled an Acman and she wrote

1113
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:47,439
Speaker 3: I'm tired of based social media videos and big talk

1114
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 3: from the ADMIN with zero follow through. First thing she cites,

1115
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:54,400
Speaker 3: we voted for home affordability and we were given fifty

1116
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 3: year mortgages and debt slavery at one point. She then

1117
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 3: goes on to say people are being arrested for quote

1118
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:04,240
Speaker 3: anti Semitic attacks. Meanwhile, it's Christian children who are being

1119
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 3: targeted and killed in the middle of mass and it's

1120
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 3: mobs of violent leftists who continue to scream kill white

1121
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 3: people with zero repercussion. That is a recurring theme in

1122
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:14,520
Speaker 3: her post. She goes on to say American students are

1123
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 3: drowning in debt, and the ADMIN has responded by making

1124
00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 3: them compete with six hundred thousand Chinese students. Oh and

1125
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 3: if you're lucky enough to get a degree, you're still

1126
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 3: going to have to compete with the Republican promoted h

1127
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 3: one B visa hire that will work for half your pay.

1128
00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:28,919
Speaker 3: She goes on to say this is why the right

1129
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:32,919
Speaker 3: wing is divided. She says, every time Americans, or because

1130
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 3: Americans voted, feel safe, prioritize, and protected, and every time

1131
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 3: we try to voice our concerns, we are labeled as

1132
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 3: anti Maga, anti Israel, or anti Trump for bringing for

1133
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 3: substantial criticism of the direction of the parties. She says,

1134
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:45,800
Speaker 3: she's watched the quote right wing implode over the last

1135
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 3: two weeks. So and by the way, goes on and

1136
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 3: the reason we are is because many are afraid to

1137
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 3: legitimately criticize the administration. That is absolutely true, Crystal, And

1138
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 3: I think she's directing this at those quote based social

1139
00:58:57,960 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 3: media posts from Maga world. So she seems to be

1140
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 3: especially upset with like her fellow influencers, who say, you know,

1141
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:09,080
Speaker 3: if there's a little bit of a breath of criticism,

1142
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 3: it becomes a pile on over someone being anti Maga

1143
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 3: having their like Maga bonafides challenge, which has definitely happened

1144
00:59:16,720 --> 00:59:19,600
Speaker 3: to Marjorie Taylor Green and Marjorie Taylor Green. You know,

1145
00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:21,920
Speaker 3: whatever you want to say about her going against the

1146
00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:27,320
Speaker 3: team during the shutdown, Marjorie Taylor Green is as Maga

1147
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 3: as it gets, Like true maga as it gets. This

1148
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:35,280
Speaker 3: is a person who is like organic grassroots maga and

1149
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 3: is represents that sort of I would I always put

1150
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:40,640
Speaker 3: it on thirty to forty percent of the Republican Party.

1151
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 3: That's the type of maga that actually goes to rallies,

1152
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 3: buys merch, that sort of thing. Marjorie Taylor Green represents

1153
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:51,920
Speaker 3: those people who were inspired by Donald Trump's drain the

1154
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 3: swamp message. And you and I could disagree or could

1155
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 3: debate whether or not people were you know, right or

1156
00:59:57,600 --> 00:59:59,840
Speaker 3: wrong to put their hopes and drain the swamp Donald

1157
00:59:59,880 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 3: tr Trump. But people feel like they were out of

1158
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 3: options and they did. And that's the bottom line. And

1159
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:06,960
Speaker 3: a lot of the people who were brought into the

1160
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:10,480
Speaker 3: conservative movement, brought into the broader right on those promises,

1161
01:00:10,600 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 3: are now seeing second administration Donald Trump. And second administration

1162
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:20,200
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is a legacy building Donald Trump who's been

1163
01:00:20,640 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 3: laser focused on foreign policy. And now is what did

1164
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:28,240
Speaker 3: he say last week, Crystal after the Tuesday elections, Like

1165
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:31,120
Speaker 3: they have this new word affordability. That was a good one.

1166
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:34,680
Speaker 2: Oh my god, which is an which he describes as

1167
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:37,240
Speaker 2: a con job by the Democrats, which is like, oh

1168
01:00:37,240 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 2: my god, and by the way, speaking of anotage, guess

1169
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 2: who's hosting at the White House today, Jamie Diamond and

1170
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 2: a bunch of other Wall Tree CEOs. So really finger

1171
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:50,880
Speaker 2: on the pulse there, brother. I'm sure you can walk

1172
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 2: them around your new gilded ballroom, and you know, you

1173
01:00:54,720 --> 01:00:57,760
Speaker 2: can all marvel at the splendor of your home depot

1174
01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 2: disgusting gold interior of the White House, you know, I mean, listen, Obviously,

1175
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 2: I think part of what this lady said was insane

1176
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 2: about like whatever, her you know whatever, her right wing

1177
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:11,120
Speaker 2: hysterias and her critique that basically like, oh, they're not

1178
01:01:11,160 --> 01:01:15,160
Speaker 2: being fascist, and like the theatrical part.

1179
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 3: I too, am frustrated that you're not in prison yet, right,

1180
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 3: right exactly.

1181
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 2: I mean, it's understandable, right, we're all disappointed by that,

1182
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 2: right I you know, you months ago. I mean, Glaine

1183
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 2: looks like she's having fun in prison.

1184
01:01:28,520 --> 01:01:33,400
Speaker 3: Zo you you can get a service puppy maybe, in

1185
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 3: any case, I don't think I'd be getting that kind

1186
01:01:34,840 --> 01:01:35,240
Speaker 3: of treatment.

1187
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, I don't have the goods on Donald Trump the

1188
01:01:37,120 --> 01:01:40,040
Speaker 2: way she does. In any case, putting that aside, you know,

1189
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:41,840
Speaker 2: her point that she makes about I'm tired of the

1190
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 2: base social media videos like the sense is basically, I

1191
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:48,440
Speaker 2: didn't take that as actually a shot at other influencers.

1192
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:50,439
Speaker 2: I took that as a shot at the administration, which

1193
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:54,120
Speaker 2: loves to create this fascist content their ASMR like deportation

1194
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:57,680
Speaker 2: videos and they're you know, set to music rating of

1195
01:01:57,720 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 2: the Sandwich guys apartment and all this kind kind of bullshit,

1196
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:04,360
Speaker 2: right or staging this, Oh, we're going to march all

1197
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 2: the horses through the park where children were playing and

1198
01:02:07,400 --> 01:02:10,880
Speaker 2: record it, even though like we're literally doing nothing other

1199
01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:15,560
Speaker 2: than posturing for the cameras we showed many times. Obviously

1200
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 2: what is happening in Chicago has been extremely real and

1201
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 2: extremely violent and horrifying for the communities there, but also

1202
01:02:22,800 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 2: it was meant for the theater. Every single action they

1203
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:29,320
Speaker 2: took when you see people recording them, they've got tons

1204
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:33,040
Speaker 2: of cameramen, people recording on iPhones and actual, like you know,

1205
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:36,160
Speaker 2: real legit cameras, so they can package it up and

1206
01:02:36,240 --> 01:02:39,640
Speaker 2: produce it for mass content. You see the DHS nazi

1207
01:02:39,640 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 2: posting on a daily basis, and I think that they believed,

1208
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 2: and I think up to this point, in a large

1209
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 2: part it has been that that would be enough, because

1210
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:51,960
Speaker 2: that's that's like they're triggering and owning the Libs, right,

1211
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:54,160
Speaker 2: and they're like, that's what you people want, right, that's

1212
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 2: all you really need from us. And so what Savannah

1213
01:02:56,600 --> 01:02:58,760
Speaker 2: is saying is like, and again I think part of

1214
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 2: what she says completely insane and rageous, but she's saying, no, actually,

1215
01:03:01,920 --> 01:03:04,880
Speaker 2: that's not enough. I see what you're doing, and I

1216
01:03:04,920 --> 01:03:07,200
Speaker 2: see that you're you're trying to play us, like you're

1217
01:03:07,200 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 2: trying to play us, You're trying to substitute in this

1218
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 2: you know, this show for the actual things that we

1219
01:03:13,680 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 2: thought we were getting and we thought we were voting for.

1220
01:03:16,120 --> 01:03:16,240
Speaker 3: Now.

1221
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:20,880
Speaker 2: I don't think she's reflective of her specific disappointments. I

1222
01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 2: don't think are reflective of the overall population. I think

1223
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:26,240
Speaker 2: most of the population is pretty horrified by the level

1224
01:03:26,240 --> 01:03:29,880
Speaker 2: of authoritarianism, does not agree with the way that the

1225
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 2: deportations have been accelerated or the show of force. And

1226
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 2: we can see that if we look at C three.

1227
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:39,560
Speaker 2: In these last elections, every single demographic group in the

1228
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:43,600
Speaker 2: country shifted away from Donald Trump and or for I

1229
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:45,960
Speaker 2: should say, from the Republican Party. But I'm like, you know,

1230
01:03:46,040 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 2: those two things are one and the same. And in particular,

1231
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:52,800
Speaker 2: the largest shifts came from some of the groups that

1232
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:57,000
Speaker 2: were really heralded as a new part of the Republican coalition.

1233
01:03:57,080 --> 01:04:00,200
Speaker 2: You're looking at young people, young men in particularly, You're

1234
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 2: looking at Hispanic voters, you're looking at Asian voters. Those

1235
01:04:04,840 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 2: groups fled the Republicans in these elections. So you know,

1236
01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:15,000
Speaker 2: when you have that sort of an undeniable national reckoning,

1237
01:04:15,280 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 2: and even the people who are coping and saying, oh,

1238
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:19,360
Speaker 2: these were blue states and it's not a big deal,

1239
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:23,560
Speaker 2: they know the truth and this sense of we have

1240
01:04:23,600 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 2: a new coalition and we're going to be acendant forever.

1241
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 2: You know, demographics is destiny, the way that Democrats thought

1242
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:32,720
Speaker 2: back in two thousand and eight, that has just run

1243
01:04:33,000 --> 01:04:38,480
Speaker 2: smack into an actual reality. So not surprising that you

1244
01:04:38,600 --> 01:04:42,640
Speaker 2: have more and more voices on the right who see

1245
01:04:42,760 --> 01:04:46,760
Speaker 2: the writing on the wall, recognize that Trump is wildly

1246
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:50,560
Speaker 2: unpopular and will not be alive, let alone in power forever,

1247
01:04:50,880 --> 01:04:55,000
Speaker 2: and are starting to feel more emboldened to make some noises. Emily,

1248
01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:56,480
Speaker 2: I do want to just say about that h one

1249
01:04:56,560 --> 01:05:01,439
Speaker 2: B thot, which I find incredible. So first of all,

1250
01:05:01,520 --> 01:05:05,360
Speaker 2: I think the visa program sucks. I support bringing you know,

1251
01:05:05,440 --> 01:05:08,760
Speaker 2: on very pro immigration, but it does create a situation

1252
01:05:08,800 --> 01:05:11,240
Speaker 2: of basically indentured servitude. I think it needs to be,

1253
01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 2: you know, wildly reformed. I don't think that the immigration

1254
01:05:14,600 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 2: status should be attached to the employer. So I have

1255
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:18,880
Speaker 2: my issues with h one b okay putting that aside.

1256
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:22,560
Speaker 2: The thing he said about Georgia was so fascinating because

1257
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:26,560
Speaker 2: he's like, he's one hundred percent correct about Look, they're

1258
01:05:26,560 --> 01:05:30,080
Speaker 2: building out this battery plant. Hyundai has their own people

1259
01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:33,520
Speaker 2: who know how to do this. We literally don't have

1260
01:05:33,760 --> 01:05:36,479
Speaker 2: workers who have this specific skill for how to build

1261
01:05:36,520 --> 01:05:39,840
Speaker 2: these batteries with by this particular company, Like, we just

1262
01:05:39,880 --> 01:05:42,400
Speaker 2: don't have that. And so yes, we need some people

1263
01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:44,800
Speaker 2: here to train up our workers so that maybe in

1264
01:05:44,880 --> 01:05:48,240
Speaker 2: the future they can hold those jobs. And he said

1265
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:51,720
Speaker 2: something to the effect of like and they wanted them out. Well,

1266
01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 2: the they is Stephen Miller, Like this is his administration

1267
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:57,720
Speaker 2: that conducted this raid, and he's acting like I can't

1268
01:05:57,720 --> 01:06:00,920
Speaker 2: believe this was done. It's like, dude, are your people

1269
01:06:01,720 --> 01:06:03,400
Speaker 2: that you know that went in and did this and

1270
01:06:03,440 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 2: created this whole diplomatic crisis and did again the base

1271
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:09,360
Speaker 2: social media video show of force put them in shackles

1272
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:12,680
Speaker 2: the South Korean workers who were legitimately here, put them

1273
01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:16,040
Speaker 2: in shackles and arrested all of them and deported them

1274
01:06:16,040 --> 01:06:18,880
Speaker 2: back to their country. So it also showed just a

1275
01:06:18,960 --> 01:06:22,120
Speaker 2: level of disconnect between what he was willing to say

1276
01:06:22,160 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 2: in this interview and what the actual policy in direction

1277
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:26,240
Speaker 2: of his administration has been.

1278
01:06:26,320 --> 01:06:29,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, that is a really good point. So I'm looking

1279
01:06:29,120 --> 01:06:31,760
Speaker 3: right now at a New Economist you gov poll on

1280
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:34,360
Speaker 3: approval for Donald Trump. If you look at people who

1281
01:06:34,480 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 3: voted for Trump in twenty twenty four, only sixteen percent

1282
01:06:38,120 --> 01:06:41,240
Speaker 3: disapprove of the way he's handling his job as president. Now,

1283
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:44,280
Speaker 3: but we should also look at this. I mean, it's

1284
01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:47,960
Speaker 3: at eighteen percent among conservatives, so by ideology eighteen percent,

1285
01:06:48,040 --> 01:06:51,320
Speaker 3: that's almost one in five, and then by party id

1286
01:06:51,720 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 3: independence sixty three percent. Sixty three percent of independence disapprove

1287
01:06:56,680 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 3: of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president.

1288
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:02,640
Speaker 3: In any presidential and independent voters are absolutely crucial as

1289
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:05,200
Speaker 3: they were in twenty twenty four. So when you have

1290
01:07:05,400 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 3: sixty three percent disapproval with independence, it's just going to

1291
01:07:09,520 --> 01:07:13,040
Speaker 3: depend on how much Donald Trump values I mean, he's

1292
01:07:13,040 --> 01:07:15,440
Speaker 3: doing the legacy building he wants that Nobel Peace Prize

1293
01:07:15,440 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 3: for a reason, because he wants history to see him

1294
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 3: as an enormously consequential figure and one who's sort of

1295
01:07:23,680 --> 01:07:28,160
Speaker 3: who completely what's the best way to put it, completely

1296
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:32,080
Speaker 3: outperformed the expectations of the elite. I think that's what

1297
01:07:32,440 --> 01:07:34,560
Speaker 3: he wants people to see him as. And that's where

1298
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:39,000
Speaker 3: he's willing to cut deals with different countries and do

1299
01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 3: all of these like big foreign policy kind of moonshot

1300
01:07:42,880 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 3: type negotiations. But at home, that question is going to

1301
01:07:48,480 --> 01:07:51,439
Speaker 3: hinge on independence. And one of the gripes that you've

1302
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,160
Speaker 3: heard from people in MAGA world recently is that he's

1303
01:07:54,200 --> 01:07:57,240
Speaker 3: been too focused on foreign policy and not focused enough

1304
01:07:57,240 --> 01:08:02,560
Speaker 3: on affordability and domestic policy questions that matter like home ownership,

1305
01:08:02,920 --> 01:08:07,080
Speaker 3: student loan debt, price of college, just cost of living stuff,

1306
01:08:07,200 --> 01:08:11,000
Speaker 3: which crystal his political instincts. Whatever you think of Donald Trump,

1307
01:08:11,080 --> 01:08:13,440
Speaker 3: he has better political instincts than a lot of people

1308
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:17,360
Speaker 3: in the party leadership because he was out there talking

1309
01:08:17,400 --> 01:08:20,200
Speaker 3: about things like the price of eggs and the price

1310
01:08:20,240 --> 01:08:23,439
Speaker 3: of gas, and gas prices are roughly down, so he's

1311
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:25,040
Speaker 3: got that going for him. But what the price of

1312
01:08:25,080 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 3: beef is still over like six bucks a pounds when

1313
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:30,200
Speaker 3: I checked last week. Yeah, and he talked about that,

1314
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:33,160
Speaker 3: So he knows that it's a problem. The question is

1315
01:08:33,200 --> 01:08:38,760
Speaker 3: whether he has the sort of will to tackle some

1316
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:41,639
Speaker 3: of these problems in a way that really does make

1317
01:08:41,680 --> 01:08:43,800
Speaker 3: a difference, because I think what we're starting to see

1318
01:08:43,880 --> 01:08:46,920
Speaker 3: as he approaches the one year mark of his second term,

1319
01:08:46,960 --> 01:08:49,559
Speaker 3: which most people assume will be his final term. We

1320
01:08:49,840 --> 01:08:52,040
Speaker 3: still don't quite know whether that will be the case,

1321
01:08:52,080 --> 01:08:55,240
Speaker 3: but which most people assume is his final term. People

1322
01:08:55,320 --> 01:08:58,800
Speaker 3: are not interested in the bullshit anymore. It's just not

1323
01:08:58,960 --> 01:09:02,760
Speaker 3: going to work because when you're looking at the post

1324
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 3: Trump era, a lot of the Trump era politics fade away,

1325
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:08,679
Speaker 3: not all of them, but a lot of them, which

1326
01:09:08,720 --> 01:09:12,559
Speaker 3: is to say, the specific debate about Trump himself. When

1327
01:09:12,560 --> 01:09:15,439
Speaker 3: that fades away, you're left with way more nuts and bolts.