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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go from the test throwing out job respect.

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Speaker 3: I'm saying it's a cash touchdown. That's all we see.

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Speaker 4: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combine and we are underway. Welcome

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Speaker 2: to the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM. I'm

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Speaker 2: Jill Galan. I've joined with Evan Abrams each and every

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Speaker 2: week our research director here at the Action Network. We're

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Speaker 2: going to dive into all the Sunday NFL action for

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Speaker 2: week eight, and Brandon Anderson will have his hot reads

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Speaker 2: later in the show, and of course Patrick Everson from

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Speaker 2: Vegas Insider, he'll give us an update on the sportsbooks

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Speaker 2: in Vegas and how they fared this NFL Sunday. But

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Speaker 2: before we talk about Sunday, Evan, let's talk about Monda Day.

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Speaker 2: Football rate is Lions. Lion's home favorites around seven and

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Speaker 2: a half with the over under at forty six. Now,

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Speaker 2: this one's a little tricky for me because I don't

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Speaker 2: love spread and I'll tell you why. So Jared Goff

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Speaker 2: for me is a little bit of Jeckyll and Hyde,

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Speaker 2: and he usually pertains to home and away splits. So

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Speaker 2: when you look at his stats as a Detroit Lion,

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Speaker 2: he's much better offensively. At home. He's got a three

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Speaker 2: to one touchdown to interception ratio, whereas on the road

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Speaker 2: it's about one to one. You have these stats here,

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Speaker 2: fifteen to five against the spread at home over the

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Speaker 2: last three years, whereas it's eleven and seven against the

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Speaker 2: spread on the road. I think that directly correlates to

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Speaker 2: how the Lions perform offensively. But for me, yeah, I

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Speaker 2: don't know if I'm gonna love this. At the seven

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Speaker 2: and a half, even though it was at eight, it

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Speaker 2: went down to seven and a half. It might get

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Speaker 2: down to seven. I think I'd be okay with playing

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Speaker 2: the Lions or at seven. But that's seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: That hook is really talking me.

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Speaker 3: Off of it here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think Raybuon played at seven, and I think

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Speaker 5: seven is a good number of the situation. It was

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Speaker 5: as high as like eight and a half. I think,

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Speaker 5: you know, you've got aman Ross Saint Brown, who's a believe,

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Speaker 5: you know, a little bit questionable with an illness, supposed

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Speaker 5: to play I think it probably has some sort of impact,

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Speaker 5: but not a ton I mean, no Montgomery. So you

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Speaker 5: start like, you know, putting injuries together there, and it's

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Speaker 5: some sort of impact on their offense. I mean, I

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Speaker 5: think from like a market point of view, the Lions

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Speaker 5: have been getting i mean hammered. From a public standpoint.

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Speaker 5: They had like ninety three percent of bets according US.

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Speaker 5: Now it's down to eighty five percent. Uh it's you know,

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Speaker 5: twenty four hours or so before kickoff. Imagine that's going

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Speaker 5: to come down. But just for perspective, no team has

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Speaker 5: closed with eighty five percent of tickets or higher in

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Speaker 5: a night games in two thousand and four. So if

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Speaker 5: it even stayed in that eighty to eighty five range,

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Speaker 5: I mean, it's the Lions are definitely a public side

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Speaker 5: on Monday Night.

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Speaker 2: And you mentioned teams. Yeah, that's what's crazy is that

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Speaker 2: it's the Lions that are achieved the status. So you're

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Speaker 2: not getting like, you know, achieves or you know, the

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Speaker 2: Patriots at home or something like that. That's insane to me.

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Speaker 5: But the Lions are the new public boys, like everybody loves,

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Speaker 5: you know, especially at home, right, and you've got the

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Speaker 5: Raiders in kind, of a disarray on the other side,

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Speaker 5: and everyone likes Bettan the Lions are putting up points,

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Speaker 5: so we'll see well.

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Speaker 2: And speaking of that, that's kind of why I kind

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Speaker 2: of like the over in this game more so than

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Speaker 2: I would like the the the Lions at seven and

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Speaker 2: a half. Now, if the Lions do get down to seven,

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Speaker 2: you know, follow Raveawn's lead. Let's get let's get the seven.

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Speaker 2: They're covering that spread, but with it over under a

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Speaker 2: forty six. And again, as I told you how this

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Speaker 2: Lion's offense performs at home, and then you've got Jimmy

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Speaker 2: Garoppolo coming back on the other side, and we've seen

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Speaker 2: how this Raiders offense has gone. And I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to pretend like Jimmy Garoppolo is this offensive dynamo. But again,

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Speaker 2: Brian Hoyer in the lineup last week eight and O'Connell

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Speaker 2: to a lesser extent, it's a big drop off from

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Speaker 2: Jimmy Garoppolo to those two. So I feel like as well,

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Speaker 2: part of the reason why you don't want to take

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Speaker 2: a seven and a half because Jimmy g and this

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Speaker 2: passing offense, they could get some cheap passing touchdowns at

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Speaker 2: the end of this game, spoil your ticket, So I

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Speaker 2: want no part of that spread. I think you would

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Speaker 2: want to look at the over forty six from a

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Speaker 2: touchdown score perspective. I cannot believe Jacobe Myers is still

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Speaker 2: around plus three hundred in this offense, especially with Jimmy

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Speaker 2: coming back, because the Lions have struggled against the slot.

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Speaker 2: They've actually allowed the second most touchdowns to the slot

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Speaker 2: this year, the third most catches. Kobe Myers is tied

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Speaker 2: for the most targets inside the ten, both with Davante.

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Speaker 2: Now Davante, you know, Squeaky Wheel. He'll probably score this

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Speaker 2: week as well, around plus one ten, plus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: But if you're gonna give me a secondary receiver who's

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Speaker 2: playing in the slot and this is clearly one of

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Speaker 2: the Lions weaknesses and giving it to me at plus

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Speaker 2: three hundred, I'm gonna take this Almost every time. I've

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Speaker 2: been playing a lot of plus money interception props Evan

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Speaker 2: and plus money interception props have really been cleaning up

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Speaker 2: this year, hitting around sixty percent this season. And I'm

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Speaker 2: going to do a bigger report on this around Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: But Jared Goff interception around plus one thirty five I

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Speaker 2: don't love it, just because, again this Raiders defense, they

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Speaker 2: do get past pressure on dropbacks. But again it's just

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Speaker 2: one of those situations that Jered Coff has been so

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Speaker 2: clean at home that I would probably need closer to

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Speaker 2: plus one fifty to feel good about that.

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Speaker 5: Sure. Yeah, I mean even if you look at Detroit

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Speaker 5: for a second, it's actually a huge spot right coming

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Speaker 5: off a loss at home, prime time with a buy

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Speaker 5: on deck. So I mean, you know, to put to

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Speaker 5: drop an egg in this one and not look good

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Speaker 5: would be kind of shocking.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, So I think let's look at the over

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Speaker 2: end this game. We'll look at Jakobe Myers for a touchdown,

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Speaker 2: and if you want to be dangerous, you could throw

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Speaker 2: a Jared Goff interception in there around plus one thirty five,

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Speaker 2: just with the way that plus money interception props have

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Speaker 2: been hitting so far this season. All right, let's move

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Speaker 2: on to Sunday. No teams on by this week. We

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Speaker 2: had six teams on by last week. It felt like

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Speaker 2: it was almost like a quicker Show just because we

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Speaker 2: didn't have as many teams and games to focus on.

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Speaker 2: But now full slate might as well be Week one,

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Speaker 2: Dogs go four and nine straight up, six five and

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Speaker 2: two against the spread, though unders go six and seven.

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Speaker 2: It was actually seven and six is an over week

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Speaker 2: entering Sunday Night football, but unders four of the year

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Speaker 2: seventy forty eight and one against going to the under.

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Speaker 2: But let's talk about the public sides. Now, publics go

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Speaker 2: nine to four straight up and seven four to two

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Speaker 2: against the spread this week entering Sunday Night football.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, still doing pretty well for us. The sixty three

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Speaker 5: forty seven and five public best through eight weeks in

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Speaker 5: our bet Labs since two thousand and five, so second

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Speaker 5: place is two thousand and nine. So it's been a

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Speaker 5: while since we've seen it this run, this good, this long.

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Speaker 5: But the two trends I thought were interesting that kind

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Speaker 5: of kept going as we had some big home dogs

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Speaker 5: today therese home dogs of seven or more. They went

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Speaker 5: to oh and one against the spread. So now on

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Speaker 5: the year eight oh and one, that's dogs of seven

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Speaker 5: or more at home eight oh and one, and since

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Speaker 5: the beginning of last year twenty one to five and

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Speaker 5: one against spread. So wow, really on a good run.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, keep that in mind for those big home dogs.

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Speaker 2: And one of those home dogs was the Denver Broncos

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Speaker 2: today facing the Chiefs and speaking of the public sides,

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Speaker 2: they went nine to four straight up. One of those

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Speaker 2: four losses today had to have been to this chief

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Speaker 2: side where the Broncos do pull off the upset win

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Speaker 2: twenty four to nine. Chiefs do not cover or win

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Speaker 2: outright as a six and a half point road favorites,

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Speaker 2: and the total goes under forty five and a half

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Speaker 2: and Evan to me, the biggest story to take away

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Speaker 2: is this is the Broncos first win over the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: in Mahomes career. Like I couldn't believe Broncos have lost

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Speaker 2: sixteenth straight games to the Chiefs until today.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I can rattle them all off. Chiefs said thirteen

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Speaker 5: straight AFC West wins. You know some even bigger ones

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Speaker 5: from a Homes when you kind of back out a

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Speaker 5: little bit. Twenty and oh straight up on the road

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Speaker 5: neutral is a favorite of over five points sixteen and

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Speaker 5: oh straight up road Neutral versus the AFC West. So

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Speaker 5: a lot of different streaks broken today. Listen, I think

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Speaker 5: we've said it all year. I'll continue to beat this

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Speaker 5: drum Casey's offense is flawed, like they're just relying way

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Speaker 5: too much on Kelsey and there's just not enough other options.

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Speaker 5: And we know the defense is legit, but sometimes you're

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Speaker 5: gonna have these games and you can't score nine points.

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Speaker 5: So I will say this one coming up for Germany,

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Speaker 5: which is what's next for the Chiefs, they play the Dolphins.

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Speaker 5: Chiefs are nine and three against the spread with Mahomes

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Speaker 5: after scoring twenty points or less in their last game,

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Speaker 5: so usually the bounce backs there the spreads under three

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Speaker 5: in that next game, which is for Mahomes minus three

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Speaker 5: or less or a dog nineteen six and one against

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Speaker 5: the spread. So it's a good spot. But when you

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Speaker 5: just look at the box.

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Speaker 2: Score here, yep, Denver one.

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Speaker 5: Denver one, twenty four to nine. But they had a

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Speaker 5: three point seven yards per play and eighty seven pass

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Speaker 5: yards and rush through three touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: And halftime. This is the best stat. Russ at halftime

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Speaker 2: was four of nine throwing the ball. He had fifty

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Speaker 2: four yards and two passing touchdowns. Like, I could not

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Speaker 2: believe that they've gone. And really what happened here is

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Speaker 2: the Broncos run game has actually been playing pretty well.

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Speaker 2: They played pretty well last week. They put up one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty rush yards today and I think you

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Speaker 2: kind of alluded to that where the Chiefs offense is

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Speaker 2: very one one dimensional, but their defense has really been

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Speaker 2: what's been keeping them in games, and they just weren't

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Speaker 2: there today, especially being able to stop the run. Also,

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Speaker 2: the Broncos defense played pretty well. You know, forced five turnovers,

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Speaker 2: you know, two interceptions from Mahomes, saw fumble, there were

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Speaker 2: two fourth down conversions that did not go through. And

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Speaker 2: to me what's crazy is obviously this was Mahomes, he

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Speaker 2: had a flu. I don't want to make any excuses

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Speaker 2: for the Casey offense, but at the same time, I'm

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Speaker 2: not really going to walk away from this game and

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Speaker 2: think to myself, like, all right, is Casey broken? Like

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Speaker 2: it's not really that kind of level of panic. But

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Speaker 2: I think with the flip side, the Broncos are now

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Speaker 2: three and five. I had them crossed off after that

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Speaker 2: that seventy point game with the Miami Like, I can't

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Speaker 2: cross them off now because there is still a long

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Speaker 2: shot chance of them making the playoffs in the AFC,

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Speaker 2: and that is insane to me, especially because Courtland Sutton

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Speaker 2: has just been so consistent for them. Six touchdowns now

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Speaker 2: on the year for the Denver Broncos how about this one.

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Speaker 5: So the biggest hit of the day for any team

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Speaker 5: in Week eight and for a first team touchdown was

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Speaker 5: Chiefs not to score at forty to one.

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Speaker 4: Wow.

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Speaker 2: I would have thought it would have been Andrew Beck,

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Speaker 2: the fullback for the Texans. We'll talk about that game

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Speaker 2: thirty bit later, but that one was to me. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I had Damian Pierces touchdown. We'll talk about that later.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's move off from Chiefs Froncos, but let's

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Speaker 2: move to Bengals forty nine Ers. Another banger of a matchup.

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Speaker 2: Bengals went thirty one to seventeen. Forty nine Ers. Do

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Speaker 2: not cover his home favorites as minus five and the

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Speaker 2: Bengals were probably one of the most popular dogs of

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Speaker 2: the week. Does go over forty three and a half.

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, Now he looked back man twenty one and

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Speaker 2: ten against the spread on the road in his career

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Speaker 2: as an underdog, sixteen and eight against the spread, and

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Speaker 2: when he's a dog of three or more, fifteen and

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Speaker 2: two against the spread, just like a machine man.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: And I guess when you say Burrow back, you kind

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Speaker 5: of got to look recently and it looks right. Eight

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Speaker 5: touchdowns two picks in his last three games, all wins.

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Speaker 5: They've looked better. They've looked I mean, he looks cleaner.

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Speaker 5: I haven't even checked the game charts and stuff like

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Speaker 5: that in terms of downfield because that still wasn't something

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Speaker 5: he was doing at turn to. You know, everything looked right.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they were throwing the chase, he caught a touchdown,

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Speaker 5: looks good and from a San Francisco point of view,

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Speaker 5: something's been up with party, like the offense just I mean,

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Speaker 5: I know, no Debo, I know, no Trent Williams, but

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Speaker 5: you know, this was at home. This was in a

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Speaker 5: spot where we thought, okay, maybe he's a little shaky

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Speaker 5: on the road, but this was a home game. There

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Speaker 5: was like one of those passes I think it was

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Speaker 5: third fourth quarter where he just basically handed it to

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Speaker 5: the other team in the red zone. Just not pretty.

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Speaker 5: And this is a stat you've heard everywhere, but it's

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Speaker 5: actually worth probably.

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Speaker 2: Bring it up.

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Speaker 5: So Niners own thirty seven under Shanahan when trailing by

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Speaker 5: eight plus points in the fourth court in the regular

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Speaker 5: season or playoffs. So wow, they don't come back and

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Speaker 5: pretty looked bad and Burrow just was the right side

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Speaker 5: you know, and I think the Bengals are now seventeen

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Speaker 5: to zher as underdogs and six point teasers over the

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Speaker 5: last years as well well.

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Speaker 2: And so the first couple of stats of just looking

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Speaker 2: at the box score for Joe Burrow, obviously if you're

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Speaker 2: just watching the game though, in the first half, he

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Speaker 2: had eighteenth straight completions, Wow, twenty eight to thirty two

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Speaker 2: from the field. And one of the things that was

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Speaker 2: also very alarming for this Niners defense seventeen passing first

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Speaker 2: downs allowed. Now, obviously it's Joe Burrow and when they're clicking,

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Speaker 2: it's right, but that's the most that they've allowed all

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Speaker 2: season by any opponent. And they led a touchdown drive

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Speaker 2: to go back up by fourteen with Jamar Chase with

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Speaker 2: eight minutes to go. And I hate to make light

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Speaker 2: of this man just when you were talking about brock Party,

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Speaker 2: but he might be still concussed man, like that's fair.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if he should have started like he

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Speaker 2: was making some awful mistakes, a couple of interceptions, he

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Speaker 2: had a couple of fumbles, and every time they had

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Speaker 2: that turnover, it just put the forty nine ers in

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Speaker 2: such a bad spot. And the party and the Niners

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Speaker 2: they were able to make it like a one score

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Speaker 2: game in the fourth quarter, even though it was a

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Speaker 2: one of those passes across the body that you're like, no, no, no, okay,

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Speaker 2: McCaffrey got the touchdout. But this is just not the

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Speaker 2: Niners team were accustomed to. This is three straight games

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Speaker 2: where their offense has only put up seventeen points.

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Speaker 5: I'm not even sure why they started him to give

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Speaker 5: a byewee coming up, like it was a decent spot

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Speaker 5: to see Sam Darnold and not force us a party start, like,

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Speaker 5: especially if you thought he could have been shaky, it

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Speaker 5: wasn't it. You know, you had a by coming up,

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Speaker 5: you could have given him an extra week. Yeah, just

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Speaker 5: a weird one.

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Speaker 2: How about the fact that Christian McCaffrey broke the consecutive

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Speaker 2: touchdown streak in a game like game streak, And that's

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Speaker 2: probably the sixth thing that comes to mind when you

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Speaker 2: think of that game, Like, just think of all the

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Speaker 2: football players that have tried this and have done this,

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Speaker 2: and that Christian McCaffrey breaks this streak.

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Speaker 6: And I don't even hear anybody's at seventeen games, right,

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Speaker 6: I believe, yeah, yeah, And he had two today, So

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Speaker 6: to me, it's just incredible that where we're at right

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Speaker 6: now with him, and it's going to be such a

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Speaker 6: race to the finish for Offensive Player of the year

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Speaker 6: between him and Tyreek Hill, who are both around plus

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Speaker 6: two hundred for offensive player of the year going forward.

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Speaker 2: Clearly the cold favorites. All right, let's talk now. NFC

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Speaker 2: East Eagles Commanders. Eagles win thirty eight to thirty one.

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Speaker 2: Washington does cover though as seven and a half point

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Speaker 2: home dogs. Total does go over forty two and a

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Speaker 2: half and Evan, I just want to say this, I

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Speaker 2: think the Commanders just have the Eagles number. They have

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Speaker 2: now covered against the Eagles in three straight games.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and I'll say this. One thing that Philly doesn't

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Speaker 5: usually do is lose the first half, and they did

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Speaker 5: today against Washington. So it goes down nineteen to five

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Speaker 5: and one first half money line since it started last season,

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Speaker 5: so not usually the spot that they're in having to

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Speaker 5: come from behind. I had this one on the favorites

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Speaker 5: earlier when we were doing which had and Simon and

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Speaker 5: this is a crazy one. So Washington did lead fourteen

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Speaker 5: to three in this game, and Philly came back to

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Speaker 5: win So the Eagles now two to zero in the

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Speaker 5: year when trailing by ten plus points, six and four

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Speaker 5: in the last ten games when trailing by ten plus

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Speaker 5: points in those games teams thirteen and seventy seven, and

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Speaker 5: during this week when trailing by ten plus points. So

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Speaker 5: Eagles obviously have a bit of a formula there. They

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Speaker 5: can come from behind. Their defense is good enough, they

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Speaker 5: get pressure, They've got enough weapons in the passing game,

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Speaker 5: they're creative enough of Siriannis just a dangerous bunch. So

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Speaker 5: and I can rattle off a few more just you know. Obviously,

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Speaker 5: Philly loses as a favorite a few weeks ago, but

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Speaker 5: Hurts still ridiculous numbers. Twenty eight and six straight up

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Speaker 5: is a face favorite. Twenty eight and four when favored

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Speaker 5: by three points or more, so they usually just get

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Speaker 5: the wins.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And for me, what was really shocking was this

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Speaker 2: Eagles defense is just continuing to struggle. And I think

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Speaker 2: one of the things that I was really shocked with

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Speaker 2: was we saw a tush push not work. It's the

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Speaker 2: first time I feel like we in forever that it

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Speaker 2: did not convert, because they talk about that all the

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Speaker 2: time percent that that play converts at ninety two percent

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Speaker 2: have a fake tush push yes, and for a touchdown

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Speaker 2: to DeAndre Swift, which was amazing, but the commander showed

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Speaker 2: that they're the eight percent is possible, you know. And

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Speaker 2: it hurts out a fumble on that play as well.

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Speaker 2: And another thing that was really alarming, like the Eagles

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Speaker 2: only had three rushing first downs today and you saw

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Speaker 2: when they lost to the Jets. Like, if you can

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Speaker 2: limit the Eagles running the ball, you have a little

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Speaker 2: bit more of a chance. But when you have a

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Speaker 2: playmaker like AJ Brown. And you know what's funny about

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Speaker 2: a J Brown? He didn an interview on Friday and

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Speaker 2: he was speculating, you know, if the earth was flat, Well,

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Speaker 2: here's what I think. If you catch a one yard

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Speaker 2: touchdown like that, or like a one hand touchdown like that,

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Speaker 2: sure there is no curve to the earth. Like you

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Speaker 2: had two touchdowns on the day, one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: five yards for the sixth game in a row, first

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Speaker 2: player ever. And also another thing, Joey Sly had this

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Speaker 2: field goal today. It was a sixty one yarder. I

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Speaker 2: know it doesn't seem significant, had room to spare, but

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Speaker 2: it just made me feel old because I remember when

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Speaker 2: someone would kick a sixty yard field goal and it

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Speaker 2: was like the lead story the next day on the

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Speaker 2: NFL network. Now somebody kicks a sixty yard field goal,

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Speaker 2: they're like, yeah, call me when you hit seventy, you know.

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Speaker 2: So that's one of those things that from a memory standpoint,

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Speaker 2: that's like we.

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Speaker 5: Like when records are broken. We don't like, you know,

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Speaker 5: it's new age.

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Speaker 2: The yards is just standard.

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Speaker 3: Quote.

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Speaker 5: Now, I will say this the Eagles schedule, I made

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Speaker 5: a mark of this. Just hear what they've got coming up.

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Speaker 5: It's absolutely absurd. So they played Dallas, then they have

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Speaker 5: a buye in Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, then Dallas

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Speaker 5: again and then Seattle. So that is like three that's

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Speaker 5: six crazy games in a row. So we'll see how

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Speaker 5: that goes for them. Root to Rye coming up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm really looking forward to seeing how this

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Speaker 2: Eagles team matches up with the Cowboys. We'll talk about

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys and they're blow out over the Rams here

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Speaker 2: in a little bit. But Evan, more memories are made

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Speaker 2: when you're there for live NFL action and when you

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Speaker 2: need tickets, our friends at Ticketmaster have got you covered.

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Speaker 2: view of those pivotal plays and if your plans change.

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Speaker 2: your team's colors. Buying tickets today at ticketmaster dot com

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Speaker 2: slash NFL. The Action Network podcast is presented by BETMGM.

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Speaker 2: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Now it's time

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Speaker 2: for the hot read from our own Brandon Anderson. Brandon

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Speaker 2: what do you have us looking for for early week

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Speaker 2: nine lines?

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Speaker 5: Hot rap bo seventy on guist rights, ice cream.

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Speaker 1: Arms nineteen salad nineteen HOOI.

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Speaker 3: Bail sol trade.

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Speaker 7: All right, let's do a little week nine hot read Sunday.

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Speaker 7: We got a big win for the hot read. We

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Speaker 7: had Seattle minus two and a half on last week's

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Speaker 7: hot read. That line closed at four four and a

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Speaker 7: half at most books. Seattle got the win. It was close,

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Speaker 7: they won by four. If you had the hot read

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Speaker 7: last Sunday, you rested easy.

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Speaker 2: We cashed easily. If you waited to.

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Speaker 7: Play into oh right before kickoff, you either pushed or

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Speaker 7: lost outright. That is why we play the hot read.

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Speaker 7: We're trying to get that closing line value, get ahead

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Speaker 7: of these line movements. We lost the key number on

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Speaker 7: that one. We won it with the hot red. So

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Speaker 7: let's get to the hot read for week nine. We're

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Speaker 7: gonna go with the first two games on the slate.

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Speaker 7: So Thursday night we're getting ugly Titans Steelers under thirty

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Speaker 7: seven and a half. I mean, look, can't you just

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Speaker 7: already feel the aches in your body from watching the

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Speaker 7: hits in this game? Titans Steelers? How many times have

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Speaker 7: we seen this sort of game over the year. This

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Speaker 7: is a classic ugly Thursday night game. We might get

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Speaker 7: a pair of backups here. Can you Pickett left the

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Speaker 7: game with a shoulder injury. We might get Mitchell Trubisky.

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Speaker 7: We don't know if Ryan Tannehill will play Thursday or

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Speaker 7: if you will even be on the team. Still looks

434
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 7: like Malik Willis and Will Levis the rookie you've got

435
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 7: the start today. We're looking at backup quarterbacks on bad offenses.

436
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 7: Both of these offenses entered the weekend bottom ten and

437
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 7: DVOWA Pittsburgh Down't gonna tell you about them. Their offense stinks.

438
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 7: Matt Canada somehow still employed by an NFL offense. I

439
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 7: don't see that going very well. The Titans are elite

440
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 7: against the run. Past defense is beatable, but now you're

441
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 7: up to Mitch Drubisky probably or can you pick it

442
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 7: playing injured. On the other side, Will Levis looked pretty

443
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 7: good today, so I think that's buying us a little

444
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 7: bit of value here on the line. I thought the

445
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 7: total would open a bit lower, but Atlanta's defense, not

446
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 7: Pittsburgh's defense. Pittsburgh top ten by DVO entering the weekend.

447
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 7: Will Levis four touchdowns in his debut. Looked really good

448
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 7: on those long balls, but late downs when you got

449
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 7: to make your money as a quarterback, when the team

450
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 7: knows you gotta throw negative zero point six epa per

451
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,120
Speaker 7: play on late downs. For Will Levis, outside of those

452
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 7: four touchdowns, three point two yards per attempt, only two

453
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 7: of eleven success rate on those late downs. So the

454
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 7: touchdowns count, they were great. He looked really good. But

455
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 7: Pittsburgh on the road another animal altogether. I think Will Levis,

456
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 7: if he starts again, struggles in that spot. I don't

457
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 7: really see Trubisky putting up a lot of points either.

458
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 7: And you already know these Thursday short week games just

459
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 7: an ugly spot. You get not a lot of time

460
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 7: to prep. Especially it's a rough spot for backup quarterbacks.

461
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 7: They haven't had a lot of time to practice anyways.

462
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 7: Don't forget too, this is the trade deadline this week.

463
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 7: Tennessee has had rumors about Derrick Henry. They've had rumors

464
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 7: about DeAndre Hopkins, who had a huge game on Sunday.

465
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 7: He looks like a prime trade target. Those guys might

466
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 7: not even be on the roster by the time we

467
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 7: get to this kickoff Thursday night. And you know, I

468
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 7: got trends. Primetime unders, we love them. Last four years

469
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 7: sixty one percent to the under in prime time so

470
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,400
Speaker 7: far this season, seventy one percent entering Sunday Night's game

471
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 7: non Monday night unders since they over the last two decades,

472
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 7: when the total is thirty seven to forty. We're at

473
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 7: thirty seven and a half right now, forty two twenty

474
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 7: and two to the under sixth eight percent just Thursday

475
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 7: Thursday unders forty and below since twenty ten, seventeen and

476
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 7: a four to the under seventeen and four. So we're

477
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 7: getting a lot of under trends here. I always want

478
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 7: to watch for a low Thursday Night total and if

479
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 7: this drops even further, under is at thirty seven and

480
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 7: below the last four calendar years twenty one, six and

481
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 7: one to the under seventy eight percent hit rate. I

482
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:27,919
Speaker 7: think it does get to thirty seven below. I think

483
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 7: it's already gonna start moving. So let's do Steelers Titans

484
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 7: under thirty seven and a half and then let's go

485
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 7: to Sunday morning. We're going back overseas or going to

486
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 7: Germany Chiefs Dolphins, maybe the best international game that we've

487
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 7: ever had before. I think that this line is most priced.

488
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 7: I'm gonna grab the Chiefs minus two. All the talk

489
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 7: in this game it's gonna be on the offense, right.

490
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 7: Both offenses are so much fun, they're elite. Miami might

491
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 7: even have the better offense this season. It looks like

492
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 7: they probably do. The difference in this game is defense.

493
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 7: The Chiefs defense has been fantastic. Mammy's defense has not

494
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 7: been any good. Mammy was pretty good on Sunday, probably

495
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 7: their best defensive game of the season against the Patriots.

496
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 7: Chiefs defense have been top five by DVA all season,

497
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 7: fourth against the pass. I'm not really sure we can

498
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,400
Speaker 7: buy Miami in a big game like this yet. They

499
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 7: look like front runners. They look like bullies. They've beaten

500
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 7: up on the bad teams, but what happens you play

501
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 7: someone good. Lost to Philly by fourteen, lost to Buffalo

502
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 7: by twenty eight. Miami has not beaten a team with

503
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 7: a winning record at that time they played them since

504
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 7: Week three a year ago. Week three a year ago.

505
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 7: Since they beat a team like this, and guess what,

506
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 7: the Chiefs have a winning record. They pretty much always do.

507
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 7: I'm not worried about pat Mahomes playing with the flu,

508
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 7: probably hadn't injury in his non throwing hand. That stuff

509
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 7: won't be an issue next week. I am a little

510
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 7: worried about Miami. They're missing potentially still their left tackle,

511
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 7: left guard, and center. It's no mistake that the offense

512
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 7: has fallen off a little bit with that line not healthy.

513
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 7: On defense in the secondary, Javon Hollins Adian Howard are questionable.

514
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 7: They didn't play today. We don't know if they'll go

515
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 7: next week. Jenleen Ramsey is back, but we don't know

516
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 7: how necessarily he'll hold up after his first game back.

517
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 7: So injury report I think could favor Kansas City and

518
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 7: maybe take us past a key number here too, if

519
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 7: it starts moving at all. International favorites in games that

520
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 7: are not featuring the Jaguars twenty two to nine ats

521
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 7: all times seventy one percent. Look, it's a neutral field,

522
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 7: so you just take the team we know is better.

523
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: Chiefs are better.

524
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 7: Patrick Mahomes when he has anything that is not a

525
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 7: three and a half point favorite or more fourteen four

526
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 7: to one ats all times seventy eight percent, and he's

527
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 7: fourteen to three straight up after a loss, hying the

528
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 7: Chiefs get the win, they bounce back, they're the better team.

529
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 7: Give me the Chiefs minus two. So Week nine Hot

530
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 7: reads Thursday night Titans Ravens under thirty seven and a

531
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 7: half and Sunday morning in Jermy give me the Chiefs

532
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 7: minus two against the Dolphins.

533
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 2: All right, thank you, Bradon. All right, Evan, let's keep

534
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 2: moving here. Jets, Giants, Jets win thirteen to ten in

535
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: the Battle of New York. The Jets do cover is

536
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 2: two and a half point favorites and the undercomfortably hits

537
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: of thirty five. Again, when an under of when a

538
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,479
Speaker 2: total is thirty five and the undercomfortably hits, you have

539
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 2: to feel really good here because this might have been

540
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,400
Speaker 2: one of the ugliest fun games of the year. And

541
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,919
Speaker 2: can you put in context like how low this total

542
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,479
Speaker 2: is just historically.

543
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 5: Sure, so even at one point today it hit thirty

544
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 5: four and a half, which was tied for the second

545
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 5: lowest total over the last decade. It did close at

546
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 5: thirty five. It was a third total of thirty five

547
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 5: or Lessons twenty twenty, and all three of those games

548
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 5: went under. So a bit of history, and honestly, it's

549
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 5: probably what I would expect if you would have told

550
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,120
Speaker 5: me here was the game where the Jets closed minus three.

551
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 5: It was the biggest favorite of Zach Wilson's career. What

552
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 5: do I think the game would look like? And that

553
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 5: was probably.

554
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: It, And honestly, it might have been the most shocking

555
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 2: thing of the day that Graham Gondo, like the everything

556
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 2: that happened today, Graham Gono missing probably a gimme field

557
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 2: goal and then Zach Wilson in probably leading the Jets

558
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 2: back into field goal range with only twenty four seconds

559
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 2: to go in the game, and then another field goal

560
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: in overtime. To me, that was insane. More insane than

561
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 2: seeing third string quarterback Tommy DeVito, who scored a rushing

562
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 2: touchdown but did not attempt to throw after the second quarter,

563
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 2: finished zero to four passing on the day. So it's

564
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 2: a pretty big drop off when you're going from Daniel

565
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 2: Jones to Tyrod Taylor to now Tommy. Don't call me

566
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 2: Danny DeVito.

567
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:53,479
Speaker 5: Shout out to Don Bosco prep. Though Tommy Devido, I

568
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 5: know he did to go. I will say this about

569
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 5: Zach Wilson though I know he had the fumble, but

570
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 5: one interception in his last one seventy pass attempts like,

571
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,719
Speaker 5: can't be mad at that if you're solid. I mean,

572
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 5: he's he's turning over the ball, I guess in certain

573
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 5: ways since I believe he has a few fumbles recently.

574
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 5: But he's not throwing picks, which was his issue. He's

575
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 5: keeping the Jets in the games they're winning. I guess

576
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 5: you can call it that. And then they have the

577
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 5: Chargers on deck at home on Monday Night football. It's

578
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 5: a big game, big game.

579
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 2: So the conclusion is that Zach Wilson, the floor is raising,

580
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 2: but the ceiling remains the same. So I don't think

581
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: we're gonna be seeing any type of offensive scoring fireworks.

582
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 2: But again we're starting to see a little bit more

583
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 2: clean uh pocket and clean game for Zach Wilson. All Right,

584
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 2: another fun game today, Saints Colt Saints went thirty eight

585
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: to twenty seven and the total goes way over at

586
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: forty four and a half and the Saints do cover

587
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 2: as two and a half point road favorites. But I

588
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 2: want to talk more about this total, Evan, because what

589
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 2: happened to the Saints thunders Saints. We're six and one

590
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 2: of the under this year, twelve and one in the

591
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: last thirteen games, fifteen to two in the last seventeen. Instead,

592
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 2: we coming to this game seeing forty one combined points

593
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 2: at halftime, finishes with sixty five points total.

594
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 5: I think here's the formula, right, Saints defense really really good.

595
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 5: I think that formula makes unders. But I think Derek

596
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 5: Carr isn't a quarterback for unders. I would have to

597
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 5: look it up see what he is in his career,

598
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 5: but my guess is he's a little erratic, and he

599
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 5: throws it far, he gets intercepted. Things happen when he

600
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 5: plays quarterback. He leads to overs. I also, I'll say this,

601
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 5: and I wrote this in my notes with Minchew, the

602
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 5: Colts just play chaos games. Like I think that's just

603
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 5: something you have to get used to that wherever he

604
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 5: goes or whatever he does, his style just creates points

605
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 5: for both teams the same you know, even on the

606
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 5: same side of the ball, which, like we said, we

607
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 5: saw a ton of unders prior to you know, two

608
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 5: weeks ago, five hundred yards of offense and seven point

609
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 5: seven yards per play. Colts defense have allowed thirty eight,

610
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 5: thirty nine, and thirty seven in their last three games.

611
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 5: It's just when you mix that with Minshew. You you're

612
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 5: just you're walking into a you know, a game of fireworks.

613
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and I will I will give credit to Derek Carr.

614
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: He still could throw a hell of a deep ball.

615
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: I still think he's cooked. But Rashichi he made it

616
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 2: look very easy for him today. Three catches for one

617
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty five yards on a touchdown. But my

618
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: big question is is why are the Colts paying Jonathan Taylor? Like,

619
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 2: why are you paying him? Your your first and goal

620
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 2: at the two, he gets one carry and they settle

621
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 2: for a field goal. Now that was earlier in the game.

622
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 2: He had a nice run earlier in the game, but

623
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 2: Zach Moss was doing most of the heavy lifting for them.

624
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 2: To me, I just don't pay running backs, Like why

625
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 2: is this even an issue anymore? This whole thing about

626
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 2: having to pay Jonathan Taylor, because what he did two

627
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 2: years ago, it just blows my mind and I'm sick

628
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 2: of hearing about him. And honestly, I don't really think

629
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 2: much of the Colts, But like I said, I do

630
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: like the bet On touchdown scores and overs. Now win

631
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: Gardner Midshew was involved.

632
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 5: I will say this, though Colts have scored twenty points

633
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 5: in every game this season, nine straight games of twenty

634
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 5: points or more, longest streak in the NFL. There's just

635
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 5: something about there. They're not a team you would think

636
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 5: about when offense to you comes, but they score points well.

637
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 2: Even that Browns game last week that was like thirty

638
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 2: nine to thirty eight. Like that game was one of

639
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 2: the lowest totals of the week.

640
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, and Indie plays at Carolina and then we send

641
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 5: the beautiful offenses of the Colts and Patriots to Germany, So.

642
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: Don't let them come back. Let's just let them play over.

643
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 2: There'll take them all right, Let's move over to brown Seahawks.

644
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: Seahawks win twenty four to twenty. The score looks much closer,

645
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: but again this came really down to the final drive.

646
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: Seahawks do not cover though, as four and a half

647
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: point favorites, and the over does hit at thirty nine

648
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 2: and a half. Let's talk about how we got over

649
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 2: that total. Because Gino Smith gets the game winning touchdown

650
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 2: with thirty seconds to go to Jackson Smith Najingba seals

651
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 2: the over, but again they only win by four. Honestly,

652
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 2: I feel like the Seahawks should have won by twenty

653
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 2: five or more. Man. PJ Walker should have had like

654
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: five interceptions today and neither team really looked great offensively,

655
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 2: and everything up until the final six minutes was just

656
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: a slog, a lot of turnovers, bad throws. And then

657
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 2: Gino Smith probably has the best drive of the year

658
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 2: on arguably the best defense in the NFL, which I

659
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 2: don't know if I'm gonna call them that anymore because

660
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: they've now allowed sixty three points in just the last

661
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 2: two games.

662
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, they are who we thought they were, Like, I

663
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 5: just not sure I actually learned much about either team.

664
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 5: Like Gino does what makes Gino not the best or

665
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 5: in the top tier. PJ Walker does what PJ Walker

666
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 5: tends to do now, which is due just enough to

667
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 5: find a half point to a point either way of

668
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 5: the spread, and they ended up covering by like a

669
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 5: half point in this game. JPJ Walking now seven and

670
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 5: two against his Breadnon's career, covering by ten point three

671
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 5: points per game. So market doesn't like PJ. Walker, But

672
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 5: when you play for a defense like Cleveland, you tend

673
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 5: to find yourself around the margin.

674
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 2: I will say you know that. Did you know that

675
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 2: he was the only quarterback that had a over under

676
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 2: of one and a half for his interceptions today. There's

677
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: only been one quarterback since the start of last year

678
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: who has had the one and a half line. That

679
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 2: was Zach Wilson last year and now PJ. Walker. He

680
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 2: had it a couple of times with Carolina last year

681
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 2: and then had it again in this game against Seattle.

682
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's an incredible note. I was gonna say this,

683
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 5: which is actually a decent spot, and I had it

684
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 5: circled in the preseason teams on the second leg or

685
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 5: later of a road trip when facing Seattle. So when

686
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 5: you're hoping cities and Seattle's the next stop, twelve and

687
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 5: thirty eight straight up, so Cleveland this week. It's actually

688
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 5: Washington in week ten, Philly in week fifteen.

689
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 2: Seattle.

690
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 5: Not the easiest trip, and when you're going from road

691
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 5: to road, you know, a bit of a tough spot.

692
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's do you have anything more to

693
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 2: mention that I want to talk about Ravens Cardinals here,

694
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 2: because this game we could have probably had it in

695
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 2: the A bloc with the way that this is gone

696
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 2: and the way that that ending was. So again, Ravens

697
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 2: win thirty one to twenty four, but the Ravens do

698
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: not cover as ten point road favorites the overhits of

699
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 2: forty five. So here's how my notes went. When I

700
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 2: originally was writing this, I said, in the first half,

701
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 2: the Cardinals are starting to look like the worst team

702
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 2: in the NFL. They're keep trailing off in the second half,

703
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,760
Speaker 2: but then they started to come through in this game.

704
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: And one of the notes too that I was really

705
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 2: surprised with is because coming into this game, the Ravens

706
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 2: had outscored their opponents fifty five to six in the

707
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 2: first quarter. This is the first game that they were

708
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 2: held to a draw against an opponent, and the Cardinals,

709
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 2: in my opinion, they covered this game twice. Like they

710
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,320
Speaker 2: come back with the garbage time touchdown to Trey McBride

711
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 2: and then get the two point convert. Ravens then come

712
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 2: to score Gus Edward gets his third touchdown of the game,

713
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 2: and then Josh Dobbs leads them down the field again

714
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 2: in Hollywood Brown with the poetic revenge gets the garbage

715
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: time touchdown to steal that cover. And I mean they

716
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 2: even had an on side kick where they got another

717
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 2: field goal. I thought for sure that they were going

718
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 2: to probably tie this game up.

719
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 5: I'm glad you took my spiel because I had it

720
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 5: all written out because the end of his game and

721
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 5: how the gambling story basically I would run it inside.

722
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 5: The number was just absolutely bonkers. You know, when you

723
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 5: look at the box score, I feel like you go

724
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 5: back and forth, you say, okay, that makes sense, that

725
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 5: makes sense. It was just Dobbs' interceptions kind of was

726
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 5: the difference in the game. Kept Baltimore there, grinded it out,

727
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 5: grinded it out. They were the better team. You know,

728
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 5: they probably should have covered, to be honest with you,

729
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 5: they were cut up fourteen or so late in the game.

730
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:50,919
Speaker 1: I mean.

731
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 5: The one thing that's interesting and the way the Cardinals

732
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 5: season started out three and zero against the spread. Nobody's

733
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 5: betting on them. Well, still nobody's gambling on them, and

734
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 5: then they brought away they had. They're the only team

735
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 5: right now in the NFL that hasn't been a public

736
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 5: side yet this year. Carolina closed public today, so that

737
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 5: is it, and next week they're not going to be

738
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 5: public either. So it's just nobody wants to bet on

739
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 5: this team, and Dobbs keeps finding a way. But Dobbs

740
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 5: is one to nine straight up in his career for sure.

741
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: And one of the stats we brought up last week

742
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: is now Lamar is sixteen and one straight up against

743
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 2: the NFC, and now they've got Seattle up on the

744
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: on the next game here, So keep that in mind

745
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 2: when you're looking at the spread and the sides here.

746
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 2: All right, let's run through two of these games here.

747
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 2: I don't really want to go too deep into them,

748
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 2: but again you talked with that public side with the

749
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:46,280
Speaker 2: Panthers Texans. Panthers. Panthers win a snoozer fifteen to thirteen.

750
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: Texans did not cover as three and a half point favorites,

751
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:51,280
Speaker 2: and the under hits at forty three and a half.

752
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 2: Interesting note about Frank Reich and the Panthers this year,

753
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 2: now five and two against the first half spread this year.

754
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 2: But what was really interesting for me the takeaway as

755
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 2: there were three touchdowns in this game and they were

756
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 2: all over plus five hundred or more. C J. Straub

757
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,240
Speaker 2: at plus five hundred, Tommy Tremble was around plus twelve hundred,

758
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 2: and Andrew Beck was at sixteen to one. To me,

759
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 2: that was an incredible Eddie Panero did make up for

760
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 2: his earlier mistake. I thought that missed extra point when

761
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 2: Tommy Tremble caught that touchdown, because they were down ten

762
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 2: to nine for a lot of the game. I thought

763
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 2: that was going to cost them. Ends up making it

764
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 2: up with an easy winner, and now the Panthers are

765
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 2: no longer winless, and the Cardinals and the Panthers now

766
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 2: have the same record. Patriots Dolphins, Dolphins win pretty easily,

767
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,479
Speaker 2: thirty one to seventeen. Total does go over at forty

768
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 2: six and a half and the Dolphins do cover seven

769
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 2: and a half point favorites. I know you love me

770
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 2: ragging on the Patriots here, so I'll ring these off

771
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 2: real quick. MATC Johns now four and fifteen against the

772
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 2: spread as a dog in his career, too, is sixteen

773
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 2: and five against the spread at home, and it's actually

774
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,439
Speaker 2: six and zero against the spread in his career versus

775
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick. Did keep them a little bit in the

776
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 2: game though early interception from Tua, the turnover. Look, I

777
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 2: thought this was going to start to go to Patriots way.

778
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,919
Speaker 2: There was a fumble in the third quarter. I thought

779
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: also the weather was going to impact this game. We

780
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 2: talked with Nick Giffin, you know in the Luck Unders

781
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 2: and talking about this game I thought weather was going

782
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 2: to impact the scoring. Then you see a bomb to

783
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 2: Tyree over the top for another touchdown, and I was like, Okay,

784
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 2: the Patriots are done. I don't have to see anymore.

785
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: And one interesting stat too, Evan, before we move on,

786
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 2: is the Dolphins now are averaging forty three and a

787
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 2: half points per home game so far this season. Now

788
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 2: it's a little ballooned obviously from that seventy point game,

789
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 2: but I mean they put up thirty one. They put

790
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 2: up thirty one now in two straight home games. So again,

791
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 2: their offense is still clicking when they're playing in South Beach.

792
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see if they're able to keep

793
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: that over and bring that over the over the Jada

794
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 2: to Germany. All right, now we have four games left,

795
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 2: and Evan, all four of these games have some quarterback

796
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 2: questions as far as injuries of what happened today, so

797
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,760
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bring them off here. So Jaguars Steelers. Steelers

798
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 2: have the quarterback issue now with Kenny Picket getting hurt,

799
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 2: but the Jaguars do win twenty to ten, the total

800
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: does go under a forty one and a half, and

801
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 2: the Jaguars do cover as two and a half point favorites.

802
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 2: Before we move on, I just want to mention Jaguars

803
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 2: of now won and cover five straight games, and this

804
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: was a complete raw rob Mike Tomlin spot as a

805
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 2: home dog, and the fact that the Jaguars just went

806
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 2: in and took that, I think that was pretty impressive.

807
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 2: Falcons Titans. Titans win twenty eight to twenty three. The

808
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 2: total does go over the thirty five, and the Falcons

809
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 2: lose as road favorites. But the quarterback carousel that we're

810
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 2: dealing with now, Desmond Ritter Benched finally been saying it

811
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 2: for about eight weeks now. Taylor Heineke in the game

812
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 2: didn't look great in the second half. Let's see have

813
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 2: a full week of practice here and see what he

814
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 2: looks like going forward. And then Rams Cowboys. Cowboys win

815
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 2: fairly easily, forty three to twenty. Total goes over a

816
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 2: forty five and a half. Cowboys win as six and

817
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 2: a half point favorites. But Matthew Stafford looked like he

818
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 2: fed up his thumb pretty bad on a throw. Was

819
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 2: getting the shit kicked out of him pretty much the

820
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 2: entire game anyway, and that's really been his mo in

821
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 2: his career. Anyway, But at the same time we might

822
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 2: be seeing Brett Ripian going forward for the Rams and

823
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 2: finally Vikings Packers probably the biggest quarterback injury of the four.

824
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 2: Vikings do win twenty four to ten, the total does

825
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: go under the forty and a half, and the Packers

826
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 2: lose as home favorites. But the big news coming out

827
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 2: of this game Evan kirk Cousins going down with the

828
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 2: achilles injury, tearing his achilles. According to Adam Schefter, it

829
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 2: didn't look good in real time, and you know, Justin

830
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: Jefferson was potentially coming back in a couple of weeks.

831
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 2: The division felt wide open for them, and the luck

832
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 2: continues to smite the Vikings here in the spot. So,

833
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 2: of the four, if I had to give you kirk

834
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 2: Cousins going to their backup Rams, Steelers and Falcons, is

835
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 2: it the Vikings that we have the most concerned with

836
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 2: going forward, I think it has to be, right.

837
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's the Vikings for sure. Actually there'll

838
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:59,399
Speaker 5: be Vikings at Atlanta. So these well, you know, kind

839
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 5: of have to rub against each other. But I think

840
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 5: we agree Heinike coming in probably a good decision versus

841
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 5: having to go to a backup in Minnesota. Not so

842
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 5: good of a decision, So, you know, we'll see how

843
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 5: that goes. But I think Minnesota really is gonna need

844
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,839
Speaker 5: some help they have at Atlanta, and then they're gonna

845
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 5: face a New Orleans team that's, you know, gonna put

846
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 5: up points. You know, as we talked about earlier, car

847
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 5: tends to do that, so.

848
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 2: And they're gonna probably have to lean on the running game,

849
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 2: which scored their first rushing touchdown of the year, Cam Makers,

850
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 2: not Alex Madison, I scored the first rushing touchdown. But

851
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 2: I mean green Bay had nothing going really, and what's

852
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 2: that is is that to not go too deep into

853
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 2: the Packers, but this is the Packers of what they

854
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 2: look like when they're healthy. It's not a good look.

855
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 2: So this division now feels like it's the Lions to win.

856
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna get two down. This is the second

857
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 2: time we've seen Kenny Pickett go down this season. Mitch

858
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 2: Trubisky coming in, I don't really think there's much of

859
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 2: a drop off between the two. I still believe in

860
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 2: the Steelers infrastructure as far as that goes. But again,

861
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 2: not a tough a tough loss there today as we

862
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 2: said with Taylor Heinike this was long overdue, and then

863
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: finally Matthew Stafford. I mean, I was pretty high on

864
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 2: the Rams coming into this year, especially after they got

865
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 2: that win over Arizona and Cooper Cup coming back and

866
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 2: how Nikola looked that. I thought maybe the Rams could

867
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 2: be a frisky team to be able to make a

868
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 2: wild card spot here. And I don't know if I

869
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 2: can really put even with Stafford back, They're just their

870
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 2: offensive line does not protect and I think that's part

871
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 2: of the reason why Stafford has been so dinged up

872
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 2: this year. So I think going forward, I wouldn't be

873
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 2: too high on the Rams prospects as far as how

874
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 2: the far they'll go in the NFC. All Right, So

875
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 2: that's the full slate. Now let's check in with Patrick

876
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 2: Everson with Vegas Insider to see how sportsbooks fared in

877
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 2: Las Vegas for Week eight.

878
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 1: Thanks a lot, Jail, it's good to be on once

879
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: again on this Action Network podcast. It was actually shaping

880
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 1: up to be really a hit and miss day for

881
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 1: the books, maybe a decent day for the betters after

882
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 1: the games in the early window NFL Week eight Sunday,

883
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: but the afternoon window really cleaned things up once again

884
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 1: for the third week in a row in favor of

885
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 1: the odds makers, and that is because what really bookmakers

886
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 1: were looking for all day was a key favorite to

887
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 1: lose outright. Didn't have that happen with the Dolphins. Really

888
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 1: needed to happen with either the Chiefs or the Ravens,

889
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 1: or the Niners or the Eagles if they'd gotten them

890
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 1: in the early window, but obviously didn't get the Dolphins

891
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 1: of the Eagles in the early window, but got both

892
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Niners in the late windows. Cincinnati

893
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 1: pulls away from the San Francisco forty nine ers and

894
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 1: the Chiefs surprisingly lose to my Denver Bronco has only

895
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 1: put up nine points and turned the ball over I

896
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 1: think five times, so those were two huge results. Like

897
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: I said, it was gonna be a hit and miss

898
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: day for the books, perhaps a decent day, especially if

899
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 1: the favorites to come through in the late window on Sunday,

900
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: but since they didn't, again, the books did really really

901
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 1: well to this because with the Chiefs losing out right,

902
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: the Niners losing out right, a whole lot of moneyline parlays,

903
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: and certainly with regard to the chief teaser. They were

904
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 1: one of the most highly played teaser teams of the

905
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 1: week at multiple sportsbooks, including at BETMGM. Those ended up

906
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 1: being a couple of really good results behind the counters,

907
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 1: So it looks like the bubble's gonna take it on

908
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 1: a chan for the third straight week. There's always some

909
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 1: regression to the mean during the course of the NFL season,

910
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 1: and this week was certainly one of them. I had

911
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 1: one odds maker tell me. He said, look, it was

912
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 1: really a mixed bag. He literally called it a mixed

913
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: bag among those early games with the Dolphins and the

914
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 1: Vikings big losers. The Bikings got a whole lot of

915
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 1: money this week, and obviously they got problems next week.

916
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 4: We'll get to that in a moment.

917
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,360
Speaker 1: But he came back and said, we had a fantastic afternoon,

918
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 1: highlighted by the Broncos win. He said, it looks like

919
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 1: another very solid Sunday for us, despite the mixed bag

920
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 1: in the early games. And then from Scott Sheldon that BETMGM,

921
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 1: she said, we had another nice Sunday. Forty nine ers

922
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 1: and Chiefs going down was basically our entire day. He said,

923
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:48,839
Speaker 1: we did take a couple of big bets on both

924
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 1: those favorites, and basically every parley and teaser that was

925
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 1: still alive got wiped out by those by those two results.

926
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 1: Looking ahead to the Monday night er, and it's not

927
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 1: the most interesting game, to be sure. You've got the

928
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders traveling across the country to play the

929
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions.

930
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 4: But the Detroit Lions are certainly a very public team.

931
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 1: I've noted that over the last couple of weeks, and

932
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 1: in just looking over some early numbers, again these are

933
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 1: from bet MGM, and it was pretty heavy to the

934
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:19,959
Speaker 1: Lions on the spread. In fact, early spread tickets five

935
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 1: to one, early spread money four to one on the

936
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 1: Lions money line a little bit more evenly distributed, But

937
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 1: you can bet that you're going to see the Lions

938
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: in a lot of money line parlays. Whatever money line

939
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 1: parlays survive Sunday, people are going to play the Lions there.

940
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: And you're certainly going to see the Lions as a

941
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 1: teaser play at all likelihoodhood as well. And then I

942
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 1: spoke by an oddsmaker tonight. It's about some of the

943
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: opening numbers and some of the early action on the

944
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 1: Week nine games and I think what's most interesting is

945
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 1: the Bills Bengals game, that's certainly one of the better

946
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 1: games on the docket. Opens at pick them really quickly

947
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 1: on this Sunday evening, got bet out to Bengals minus

948
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 1: one and a half and then Bengals minus two, so

949
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,800
Speaker 1: that's already up two points off the pick them opener

950
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,280
Speaker 1: after the Bengals had that press win at San Francisco,

951
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 1: and Buffalo has looked pretty shaky the last few weeks,

952
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 1: even though the Bills did beat the.

953
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 4: Buccaneers in Week eight.

954
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 1: Another interesting one that's you know, needs to stay on

955
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 1: your radar a little bit. It's not really a high

956
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: profile game necessarily, but that Vikings Falcons game.

957
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins out with the torn Achilles.

958
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 1: This game probably would have opened Vikings one most it

959
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: would have been picked him.

960
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 4: It might have been Vikings one, maybe even Vikings two.

961
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: Instead, you have the Falcons opening minus three and a

962
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 1: half and already out to minus four. And then in

963
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: the Eagles Cowboys game, that's been a mover. Early Eagles

964
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 1: open minus three and a half, go to three a

965
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 1: couple of times with some sharp action probably coming in

966
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys impressed by the Cowboys win and I

967
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 1: should throw out real quick. The first game on next

968
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: Sunday's docket is from Frankfurt, Germany. If you got the

969
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs against the Miami Dolphins and this game

970
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 1: opened to Chiefs minus two and a half, and what

971
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 1: the odds maker told me was, look, we're trying not

972
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,320
Speaker 1: to overreact, and we're keeping in mind that Miami hasn't

973
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 1: beaten any good teams yet.

974
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 2: Thank you Patrick, thank you Evan, and thank you for

975
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 2: everybody for listening to the Action Network podcast presented by

976
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 2: bet MGM. Enjoy Monday Night football and keep an eye

977
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:09,439
Speaker 2: out for all of our Week nine NFL podcasts right

978
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:10,439
Speaker 2: here on.

979
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 3: The Action Network.

980
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:31,360
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

981
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

982
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:37,280
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler