1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where neither snow, nor rain, nor 2 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 1: heat nor ash falling from the sky is gonna stop 3 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: us from getting our picks. And yes, we are back. 4 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: I'm in my somewhat smoky garage. I admit, got to 5 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: get back inside. And Cynthia Friedland is down the coast 6 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,440 Speaker 1: a little bit. How are you doing this week, Cynthia. 7 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 2: I am in better shape than you. We're a little 8 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 2: further it seemed like further south was better. So we're 9 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 2: good here. We're just the puppies and I are hanging 10 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 2: out making sure that they stay. I'm like really psycho 11 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 2: about making sure that we've got so many air purifiers 12 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 2: going that the huskies seem to be okay. 13 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're fine. That's the thing. We're close and we're 14 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 1: right there. But it's also so crazy to be like 15 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: driving home a couple of times I've driven home this week, 16 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: especially on Wednesday on the four or five, to be 17 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: on the four or five, and as you're coming to 18 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: the tent and you look straight and it's blue skies. 19 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 1: If you just don't look, if you look two degrees 20 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: to the left, you see the Palisades fire and it's 21 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: raging and you look two degrees to the right, like 22 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: two pm, and you can see the eaton fire. And 23 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 1: to see both of that and then to drive into 24 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: it and obviously we can kind of see it essentially 25 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: like it looks like it's at the end of our streets, 26 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: but really it's a couple miles away or a mile away, 27 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: and there's a canyon between it, and you know, we 28 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: just start feeling for everyone out there. Of course, we 29 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: mentioned on the preview show with Patrick Claybond that the 30 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: NFL is encouraging people to donate to Redcross dot org 31 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: slash NFL, so just mentioning that again, and I mentioned 32 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: personally Meals on Wheels West does a lot of great 33 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 1: work with the elderly and people near the poverty line 34 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: that can use food. And I know for a fact 35 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: that they were delivering literally yesterday to their clients and 36 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: everyone in the Palisades was accounted for, which is which 37 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: is really great on their end. And I know you 38 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: you just came back from a Costco run where you're 39 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: picking up because you are that kind of person supplies 40 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: for people that I. 41 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 2: Have not been to Costco in Southern California and in 42 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 2: a long, long time and it was a wild experience. 43 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 2: But I'm also like a big pet fan, so I 44 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 2: wanted to make sure to be able to donate. 45 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 3: There's a lot of like a lot. 46 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 2: Of pets that are displaced as well, So in addition 47 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 2: to human stuff, which everyone needs more around here, there's 48 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 2: also a lot of pets that you can help out 49 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 2: as well. And that was you know, very I before 50 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 2: we got started here obviously pulled Clyde on because you 51 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 2: hadn't met Clyde yet, so obviously you needs to meet him. 52 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:45,080 Speaker 1: Yes, your beautiful dog. And and we've got Nori in 53 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: the backyard. We made a little tend to over her 54 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: so that like the smoke air and the ash that's 55 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: falling like doesn't fall on her. Yeah, And you might 56 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: be saying, like, why are you doing a podcast? Look, 57 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: we've got the whole rest of the day. I've got 58 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: the next right in the next forty eight hours. All 59 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: I've been doing is doom scrolling and watching the news 60 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 1: and getting our family ready for what we need to 61 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: But it's it's fine, it's okay to work. It's a 62 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: good distraction a little bit for a few hours, as 63 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: are our picks. Except for last week, not a good distraction. 64 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: And by the way, before I get further in the show, 65 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 1: we are going to try to do a Saturday night 66 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: recap show live with Bill Barnwell on YouTube. So I 67 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: want people to go to the YouTube channel while while 68 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,639 Speaker 1: I'm here, yeah, you know, like and subscribe it there 69 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: and you can support us there in Cynthia's YouTube channel 70 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: as well numbers game and just just check her out 71 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: as well. So all that out of the way, get 72 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: into our picks. We did not have a good Week eighteen. 73 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 1: Let's just ignore it. We literally didn't win a game. 74 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: Week eighteen got us with all the sitting starters and 75 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: we thought we were cute, and you pushed one of 76 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: your games, which didn't you know, which at least was 77 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: a normal game, so fun technically you didn't go zero 78 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 1: and three. 79 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 3: Yes, it's pure coming there. 80 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:02,839 Speaker 1: But we're still over five hundred for the year. We're 81 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: going to bounce well over and we're going to bounce back. 82 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: I'm you know, if you check out the game debut picks, 83 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: which we keep track of, I'm twenty over against the 84 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: spread all year, so I'm annoyed I'm not higher in 85 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: this format, but we're still above five hundred. We're going 86 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: to bounce back. You give me your first pick. This 87 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,119 Speaker 1: is the show where we make three picks a week. 88 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 2: Okay, So I'm going to start down in I guess 89 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 2: it's Sunday night, and down in Tampa. I think that 90 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 2: the Bucks. It's a three point line, is what I'm 91 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 2: seeing right now, and I think that the Bucks cover 92 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 2: that I don't there's a lot these lines are really 93 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 2: interesting this week. 94 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 3: There aren't. 95 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 2: I don't look at anything, and I'm like, I feel 96 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 2: so confident. But I think that one is the one 97 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 2: where I feel like the experience of Todd Bowles in 98 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 2: this situation, the added pieces to the defense, and Twin 99 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 2: Winfield junior. That's a huge upgrade in their secondary. That's 100 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 2: a huge, massive deal. I think that one Tampa by 101 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 2: at least three points. 102 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 3: That one. I wish it was two and a half, 103 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 3: but whatever, but you know, it is what it is. 104 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:07,600 Speaker 1: I'm joining you. I had a feeling both of us 105 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:11,039 Speaker 1: were on the Bucks last week. Obviously we lost that 106 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: and that was a division matchup. Didn't expect that they 107 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 1: were lucky to get out of there with a win, 108 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: much less winning by eight in the end. The way 109 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 1: that Saints defense played them. But I think these playoff 110 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 1: numbers they're hard in terms of nothing sticks out because 111 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,280 Speaker 1: you have less to choose from, and the numbers at 112 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 1: the end of the season they're tighter. And I was 113 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: glad to see this one because to me, this was 114 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: the only obvious one for me as well, this was 115 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: my number one pick. I'm with you that I think 116 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: they're a little undervalued, because to me, these two teams 117 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: are if you look at all, the numbers are quite even, 118 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: and that's why it's three over the course of the season. 119 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: But ultimately their best to me, is so much better 120 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: I think than the Commander's best. They're a high variance team, 121 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: I'll admit it, but even their average game and the 122 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 1: Commander's average game that's Cloe. But their best I think 123 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 1: could win by a couple scores here. Even if you 124 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: just look at the players, their defense is a little better. 125 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: They do have better players overall in their secondary and 126 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 1: up front. Jalen McMillan. I'll take him over any wide 127 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: receiver too from Washington. I really like their offensive line. 128 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: If you compare them to the offensive line of Washington, 129 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: they're tight end kada and I take them over Zach Erz. 130 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: It's all these like little advantages. It's not a huge thing. 131 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels is tough to deal with, and the Bucks 132 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: defense is nothing special. But like I said, this is 133 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 1: the one I really like. I think they get back 134 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 1: to the Divisional round. It'd be the fourth time in 135 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: the fifth year for your boy, Baker Mayfield and Jason Light. 136 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: I don't know if Jason Light's your boy, but they're 137 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 1: pretty good there in Tampa. 138 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 3: I like. 139 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 2: I think Todd Bowles is my favorite of all these 140 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 2: people in Tampa. I just think he is salt of 141 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 2: the earth. Plus they have a guy from Okamis on 142 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 2: their staff. Duh, tight end coach is from Okamis. So 143 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:58,679 Speaker 2: you Low's live a good hometown. 144 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: You are a Todd Bowles guy. And it's good they 145 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: won that game last week. I literally was thinking a halftime, man, 146 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 1: if they lose this game, who knows what could happen there. 147 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: But now, if you get back to the divisional round, 148 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: like I said, fourth time in fifth years, that would 149 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: be outrageous. It's crazy. They actually have more wins than 150 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: any team Cynthia in the NFC over the last five years. 151 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: Pretty good, are you going NFC or AFC with your 152 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: next pick, I'm. 153 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 3: Gonna go this one like the points make me like 154 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 3: it a lot more. I was a little surprised. I 155 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 3: was shocked by my model. 156 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 2: I should say I should sell it harder, but I 157 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 2: actually have Houston winning in that first game. This weekend, 158 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 2: I have Houston at home upsetting the Chargers. The Chargers 159 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 2: are three point road favorites. And while we've seen some 160 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 2: disturbing things from this Texans offense defense at particular times, 161 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 2: I think there's a few things that really bolster us 162 00:07:58,800 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 2: for me. 163 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 3: Number one, the. 164 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 2: Injury report for the Chargers includes both of their starting 165 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 2: running backs. 166 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 3: I think that JK. 167 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 2: Dobbins plays, but they did sign Ezekiel Elliott to the 168 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: practice squad, which at least adds a little bit of 169 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 2: fanfare to the idea that they're not completely healthy. 170 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 3: I also saw Rashaun Slater. 171 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 2: He practiced in full as of the last time the 172 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 2: practice report came out, but practicing in full does not 173 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 2: make you one hundred percent healthy. And Rashawn Slater has 174 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 2: been excellent this season, but without him, that could be 175 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 2: a much more difficult value proposition. We know that this 176 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 2: Texans front brings pressure at the second highest rate. We 177 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 2: know that their back end of their defense. They have 178 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 2: backed it up with Derek Stingley Junior and Kamari Lassiter. 179 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,319 Speaker 2: I just think in this matchup, in a one game 180 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 2: sample size, if they can get that run game going 181 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 2: like we saw from the Texans in Week eighteen, which 182 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,439 Speaker 2: I know wasn't really for anything, I still think that 183 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 2: that is that is an advantage over the Chargers, at 184 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 2: least if you're giving me three points too. 185 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 3: I have them winning, you know, on their own. 186 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 2: But I think that if you're especially for giving me 187 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 2: three points, it's just this silly not to take that number. 188 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: Well, we're going against each other here. I'm going to 189 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: be boring and be Johnny public. I have a feeling 190 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: this is going to be one of the heaviest bet games, 191 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: and we're not allowed to bet, so we're just making 192 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: not us. But I have a feeling this will be 193 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,079 Speaker 1: one of the heaviest action games. It's the first of 194 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 1: the weekend, and I just think the public is going 195 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: to be on the Chargers because it seems too obvious, 196 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: and generally the public loses in those cases. Now, I 197 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: have noticed with this this particular weekend, I am in 198 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 1: on a lot of favorites this weekend, and it actually 199 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: has been a favorites type of season and a public 200 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 1: type of season. So I don't know if that continues 201 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: at all. That doesn't mean anything, and obviously on a 202 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 1: pick to pick basis, but that's what the season has 203 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 1: been like. And I just look at the way the 204 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 1: Chargers are playing now. I look at the Texans are 205 00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 1: twenty sixth in total offensive efficiency for the season, twenty 206 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: six and they're playing a defense it's it's not as 207 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 1: good as the Texans defense, like Mac and Bosa have 208 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: been a little quiet lately, but what they've done well 209 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: all season is beat bad offenses and kind of make 210 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: you beat them, go the long way down the field 211 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: and just hold points down. I think their ninth and 212 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 1: overall efficiency on defense, and a lot part of that 213 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: is their schedule. But this is an easy matchup for them, 214 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: I think ultimately. And then you just look at the 215 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:30,719 Speaker 1: way my guy Herbo is playing with so much confidence. 216 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 1: We've talked. I've talked a lot about this game already 217 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: on the show because we had Seth Payin on who 218 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: who does radio in Houston, So we talked about this 219 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 1: game for like twenty five minutes. I don't want to 220 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: keep repeating myself. Ultimately, I lean Chargers. In a week 221 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: where I don't have a lot of favorite picks, this 222 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 1: was my third favorite pick. But since you made it 223 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: and I'm going against you, I'll go second with it. 224 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: Give me your third pick, unless unless you have anything 225 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: else you want to jump in on there. 226 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 2: No, I mean, look, I was gut wise. I was 227 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 2: surprised that the model went with Houston. Then I looked 228 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,079 Speaker 2: into a little bit more and some specifics into it, 229 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 2: and I was like, I guess one point, whoo. 230 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: They have great players, a great team, like they're they're 231 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: an average team, and you're an underdog at home. I 232 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: can see why you don't even have to win the game. 233 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: You just gotta have to keep it with them. Three. 234 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 3: All right. 235 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 2: I want to say that I want to take Philadelphia 236 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 2: with the points to cover, But my problem is that 237 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 2: as of right now, I like, if Jordan Love doesn't 238 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 2: play or like is not okay, then that number is 239 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 2: going to go in the wrong direction. 240 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: I think I think we could make our picks assuming 241 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: both starting quarterbacks are playing. You want, It's up to you, 242 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: It's up to you. We could we could both put 243 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: backup picks, not to give away my third pick is too. 244 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: We could have a backup as our fourth anyways, because 245 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: I don't love it that much more. But this is 246 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: also the game I'm gonna pick. 247 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 2: Oh great, I think, Well, let's see, I'll just go 248 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 2: purely on numbers. I mean, I guess, I technically. 249 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 3: I guess. 250 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 2: I look, I'm gonna tell you the numbers. Say right now, 251 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 2: I technically like the Rams plus one and a half, 252 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 2: tiny like point point by tiny percentage points. 253 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: Well, that's not much. Do you want to just go 254 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: with the Eagles as your pick? If that's the one 255 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: you feel good about, let's go for it. 256 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 3: Yeah. 257 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,839 Speaker 2: I mean my problem with the Rams pick is if 258 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,080 Speaker 2: any displacement happens, I don't want to get into that 259 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 2: with Arizona. 260 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 3: And all that stuff. 261 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 2: So I'm going to go with I'm going to go 262 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 2: with the Eagles to cover four and a half points, 263 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 2: not eight and a half or whatever. Like, if something 264 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 2: weird happens, that would be I wouldn't like that. But 265 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 2: I think four and a half points is a manageable 266 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 2: number for a team that has this defense. Because for me, 267 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs is the key that makes this offense work 268 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 2: for the Packers. And where does Josh Jacobs do his damage? 269 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 2: He has the most yards, the most yards after contact, 270 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 2: and the most touchdowns between the tackles. Where does Jalen 271 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 2: Carter live? Where does Jordan Davids live in the middle, 272 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 2: So getting the outside run going, and like that's Zach 273 00:12:57,559 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 2: Bond territory, Like, no, thank you. I just think it's 274 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 2: going to be very hard for the Packers to sustain english, 275 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 2: sustain that level of efficiency and keep Jordan love. He's 276 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,199 Speaker 2: now been great against the Blitz. Why because he's been 277 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 2: in manageable downs and distances. He's not heaving it for 278 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 2: no reason. This is a team that's so pot committed 279 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 2: to rushing in the first half of games. They've done 280 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 2: it the most in the NFL. It's something like forty 281 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 2: nine percent. There's been eight games or so where they've 282 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 2: run for more than fifty percent in the first half. Like, 283 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 2: doesn't matter if it's if it's a situationally the right 284 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: thing to do. They're doing it anyways because their a 285 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 2: rush rate over expected is something like plus fifteen percent, 286 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:41,359 Speaker 2: like massive numbers. So you mess with with Josh Jacob's 287 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 2: ability to be efficient forecasts for a hard game for 288 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 2: the pack. 289 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, we didn't talk about that much on the previous show, 290 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: so I'm really glad you did, because I think Zach Bondon. 291 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 1: The reason he's been so good in part and been 292 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: their skeleton key for kind of unlock and everything, is 293 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: he can basically be a defensive lineman when they need 294 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: him to be in the running game, and yet he's 295 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: great if he's not on the line of scrimmage and 296 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 1: he's playing linebacker. He's truly a hybrid in a league 297 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: that is looking for him. Guy can basically play multiple positions. 298 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: And yes, in this game, the Eagles defense and that 299 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: Vic Fangio defense has gotten a lot of credit this year, 300 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: and you think about the young secondary, and you think 301 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: about Jalen Carter, and you make a good point there, 302 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 1: but it's really a team defense that usually Fangio's defense, 303 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 1: that's their vulnerabilities against the run, and it is just 304 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: not the case at all this year. So this is 305 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 1: my pick as well. I'm going Eagles four and a half. 306 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: We are together on two and we're opposite on one, 307 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: and we're only gonna end up talking about three games 308 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: really on this show, because yeah, that was the one 309 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: I felt the best in. And again, it's about whether 310 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: you value the last month or do you value the 311 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: course of the season. I think the Pack are a 312 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 1: really good team. But I agree with what Daniel Jeremiah 313 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: and Brian Baldinger, our friends, said on NFL Network the 314 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: other day when I was watching. They thought the Eagles 315 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: are the favorites in the NFC, and. 316 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 3: He should be. I think I have a Bobby Lane 317 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 3: jersey behind me. 318 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, they absolutely should be there. They just have so 319 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 1: many different ways to beat you. I think they're real coach. 320 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 2: I'm not saying that if the Lions are fully staffed. 321 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 2: I'm saying that in the situation that we find ourselves 322 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 2: in today. You know, I if I'm yes. But that's 323 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 2: the thing is, that's why we played the full season, 324 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 2: right like, because the Lions. You know, maybe that advantage 325 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 2: will be enough. But I certainly my preseason pick for 326 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 2: the Super Bowl Chiefs Eagles. 327 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 3: Feeling pretty good about it right now. 328 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I had. I had Bill's Lions, and I had 329 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: Lions Eagles in the NFC Championship game, So I feel 330 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: good about all that. Don't ask me who else I 331 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: had in the championship game because I have them. I 332 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 1: had them losing to the Chargers this weekend, So I 333 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: don't think my Texans to the championship game is gonna happen. 334 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 1: But I don't know if I'm gonna pick the Eagles 335 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: over the Lions if that game happens at the home 336 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: field advantage. I'm talking about them favorite in a vacuum, 337 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 1: and so as good as this Packers team is, ultimately, 338 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: I think the number one mismatch and I didn't talk 339 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: about this in preview in this game is the Eagles 340 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: pass protecting when they need to, and they're always in 341 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: great situations for herts third and three, third and four, 342 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: whatever it is, second, you know, first down, and I 343 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: do think when they're gonna need to pass, I just 344 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: don't trust the Packers to get on him at all. 345 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 1: And maybe they'll off to blitz more, but they've shown 346 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: they can pick that up and handle that well, and 347 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: so I think there could be a lot of points 348 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: in this game, even though they are two pretty good defenses. 349 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: But I just trust the Eagles to get over that 350 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: number in the end where you said the Rams would 351 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: have been next for you, for me, it probably would 352 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: have been probably would have been the Broncos. It probably 353 00:16:56,280 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: would have been the BRONXO. Yeah, weird number feels like 354 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: a lot and you could see Josh Allen going crazy 355 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: at the end of the game in what ultimately is 356 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: a close game. But I just think the Broncos are 357 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 1: a good team and that's a lot of points to 358 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 1: give a good team in the playoffs. 359 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 2: Okay, so we didn't have game debut this week. Do 360 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 2: you remember what you would have said for your write 361 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 2: this down? I can go first because I know I 362 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 2: write this down off hand. 363 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: I don't know for daily listeners, yes, who don't know 364 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,400 Speaker 1: game debut, write this down. At the very end, we 365 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 1: give our maybe our favorite pick, but usually it's our 366 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: favorite prop type of pick for the week. And I 367 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 1: got three in a row, but I've been riding Jamir 368 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 1: Gibbs and that's not available this week. I did not 369 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 1: have one. 370 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 3: You got to pick something else. 371 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: Okay, go ahead, wear this. 372 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 3: One with me if you like. 373 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 2: And it is cam Akers to have more than twenty 374 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 2: four and twenty three and a half rushing yards against 375 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 2: his former team. He's coming off a sixty five yard 376 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:58,160 Speaker 2: outing on the ground against the Lions. If you're looking 377 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 2: at Sam Darnold, what's the outlet going to be? The 378 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 2: run is Aaron Jones one hundred percent? Your girl doesn't know, 379 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 2: but I do know that if I'm looking at twenty 380 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,439 Speaker 2: three yards against your former team, are you kidding me? 381 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 3: I love a good narrative thing. 382 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 2: That matches my math, So like anger alongside revenge alongside 383 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 2: of math is like that is the best combination. 384 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: And he's been running really well lately. He passes the 385 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 1: eye test, had a good one of the few players 386 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: who had a good week eighteen against the Lions, I 387 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 1: did not have one picked out. As I had mentioned, 388 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 1: we had evacuated, we've been on the run. We're back 389 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: at home now, so I did not do any game 390 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 1: debut prep and we ended up the show ended up 391 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: getting canceled. But now that we're talking and I'm thinking 392 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: about these games specifically and we're talking about the Bills, 393 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,959 Speaker 1: I kind of like, just James Cook's rushing number, whatever 394 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,199 Speaker 1: it is, it's not a good way to pick props 395 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: is just well, whatever that number is. But ultimately, I 396 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: do think that's the mismatch in this game, and I 397 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: think they've shown us they can win multiple types of 398 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: ways and I think they'll be patient with him, and 399 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: so I think it's a James Cook game against the 400 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:02,679 Speaker 1: Broncos that that's where I would go. 401 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think a James Cook touchdown is where 402 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 2: i'd go with that. I love like the same thing 403 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 2: because what you know, the most rushing touchdowns was sixteen 404 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 2: on the season, eighteen touchdowns tied for the second most 405 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 2: among any players. And if you look at the difference 406 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 2: between losses and wins for the Broncos, they allow rushing 407 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 2: touchdowns in losses and they kind of don't and wins. 408 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 2: That's the you know, the rule of thumb for them 409 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:26,640 Speaker 2: this season. So if you think the Bills are going 410 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 2: to win, then you think, hey, a rushing touchdown could happen. 411 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 2: So that's how I'm playing that one too. I think 412 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 2: James I don't remember, I don't know the number offhand 413 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 2: for him for rushing yards, but I'm liking the touchdown odds. 414 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 1: I love that. And yes, apologies to the other two 415 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 1: games this weekend that we just didn't even mention at all, 416 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 1: But I don't know a Raven Steelers game with that 417 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: big a number. I'd rather just watch the football and 418 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 1: not stress out about it. It just let's see what happened. 419 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 2: I want to see like the like is George Pickens 420 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 2: going to keep his keep the lid on it or not? 421 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 2: Because I just think this is one where he's like what, 422 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:04,680 Speaker 2: like it's gonna be wild like that. 423 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,880 Speaker 1: That is a fun side note. And yeah, Vikings Rams 424 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: to me, is the most unpredictable game of the weekend. 425 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: You could tell me anything would happen in the game 426 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: no matter where it is. I know, I guess you 427 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 1: were leaning Rams if it's in Los Angeles. 428 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 3: I actually have the Vikings by one, so it was 429 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 3: going to be Rams with. 430 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 1: The points, gotcha, so the old threading the needle. But 431 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: that that's when I have no feel on I just 432 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,880 Speaker 1: want to watch it and enjoy it as we will 433 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: do the rest of the weekend. Like I said, we're 434 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 1: going to be back on Saturday night. Haven't done this. 435 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: We did some tnfs early in the season, but it 436 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: got difficult with the game debut schedule to do it live. 437 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: So I really appreciate everyone who has supported the show 438 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: all season long. Let's let's let's get the community going 439 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: show up Saturday night. We'll go live on YouTube probably 440 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 1: about ten minutes after the game with one of the 441 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 1: best in the business, Bill Barnwell, talking about two big 442 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 1: AFC games, so I'm really looking forward to that. I'm 443 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: going to check out Numbers game on your YouTube channel 444 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 1: in the new time. Thank you, Cynthia. Yes, when we 445 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 1: take the super out of Super Wildcard weekend, you can't 446 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,679 Speaker 1: say Super anymore. It is just Wildcard weekend. That is 447 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 1: when you know football is back and you'll see Za