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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: So I mentioned earlier some of the talk in Trump's

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Speaker 2: speech about the straight of hor moves, and he's still

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Speaker 2: on this whole thing of leg Well, we did all

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Speaker 2: the hard part, and so now you all who really

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Speaker 2: use the straight of hor moves, it's your job to

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Speaker 2: come in and take it back. Let's take a listen

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Speaker 2: to a little bit of how he presented that case.

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Speaker 4: And completely decimated ran They are decimated both militarily and

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Speaker 4: economically and every other way. And the countries of the

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Speaker 4: world that do receive oil through the hormone. Strait must

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Speaker 4: take care of that passage. They must cherish it. They

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Speaker 4: must grab it and cherish it. They can do it easily.

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Speaker 4: We will be helpful, but they should take the lead

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Speaker 4: in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on.

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Speaker 4: So to those countries that can't get fuel, many of

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Speaker 4: which refuse to get involved in the decapitation of Iran,

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Speaker 4: we had to do it ourselves. I have a suggestion.

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Speaker 4: Number one, buy oil from the United States of America.

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Speaker 4: We have plenty, We have so much. And number two,

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Speaker 4: build up some delayed courage should have done it before,

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Speaker 4: should have done it with us as we asked. Go

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Speaker 4: to the Strait and just take it, protect it, use

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Speaker 4: it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard

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Speaker 4: part is done, so it should be easy. And in

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Speaker 4: any event, when this conflict is over, the Strait will

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Speaker 4: open up naturally. It'll just open up naturally. They want

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Speaker 4: to be able to sell oil, because that's all they

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Speaker 4: have to try and rebuild. It will resume the flowing

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Speaker 4: and the gas prices will rapidly come back down. Stock

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Speaker 4: prices will rapidly go back up. They haven't come down

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Speaker 4: very much. Frankly, they came down a little bit, but

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Speaker 4: they've had some very good days over the last couple

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Speaker 4: of days.

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Speaker 5: So soccer grab it and take it and cherish it.

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Speaker 2: But also it's just going to open up naturally anyway

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Speaker 2: at some point, So I don't.

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Speaker 1: Know they'll do anything.

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Speaker 5: If it's just going to naturally open up. Yeah, I

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Speaker 5: mean it will.

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Speaker 2: If you go and you pay the toll, and you

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Speaker 2: make a deal with Iran, and you denominate your shipments

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Speaker 2: in Chinese, you on, then the street is actually not

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Speaker 2: closed at all for you if you want to go

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Speaker 2: down that path, and I think that is the path

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Speaker 2: that they will pursue.

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Speaker 3: President Maccron just speaking this morning in Japan, was asked

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Speaker 3: specifically about this. He said that Trump contradicts himself all

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Speaker 3: the time, and that there is no military solution to

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Speaker 3: the Straits of Hormus and that it will be resolved diplomatically.

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Speaker 3: So that is a major a power obviously France, and

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Speaker 3: by the way, in Japan. Again, not that anybody over

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Speaker 3: here cares at all all of these people, but Japan,

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Speaker 3: South Korea, the country's probably most affected US trading partners

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Speaker 3: and US allies by this crisis, who are freaking out

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Speaker 3: having currency problems and whose presidents? I mean just this

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Speaker 3: morning the South Korean president, remember we played last show

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Speaker 3: how he was like, I can't sleep at night. This

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Speaker 3: morning he's like, I am plor I guess at nighttime

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Speaker 3: his time, He's like, everyone, please don't drive if you can,

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Speaker 3: please take public transportation.

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Speaker 1: Do so.

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Speaker 3: He said something like please save every scrap of oil

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Speaker 3: that you can.

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Speaker 1: That's how bad things are getting over there.

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Speaker 3: So what are they gonna do when Iron comes and says, hey,

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Speaker 3: pay up, They're gonna pay it. And this is the

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Speaker 3: big problem for the United States. Are we going to

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Speaker 3: sanction South Korea? Are we going to sanction Japan, France, Germany,

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Speaker 3: the UK all of these other countries which are basically

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Speaker 3: and emphatically saying we are not getting into this mess

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Speaker 3: with you. We may clean it up, but we're not

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Speaker 3: going to clean it up on your terms. That's the problem.

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Speaker 3: Let's put up there on the screen too. Trump is

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Speaker 3: threatening to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joins the

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Speaker 3: Hormuz coalition. And by that, again, let's be very clear,

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Speaker 3: he doesn't mean a diplomatic horrm moves coalition. He means

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Speaker 3: a military campaign. He's desperate to get the Europeans to

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Speaker 3: join the United States and their bombing campaign and at

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Speaker 3: least in some sort of international coalition that would seize

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Speaker 3: the strait or force the straight open again, though they

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Speaker 3: don't want to do that. And in fact you have

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Speaker 3: the major heads of basically all top economies in the

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Speaker 3: G seven or in NATO coming out and saying this

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Speaker 3: is not going to happen. Here's the Prime Minister, Keir

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Speaker 3: Starmer of the UK saying this. Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 6: Conflict in the Middle East has now entered a second month,

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Speaker 6: and while we're working at pace for de escalation and peace,

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Speaker 6: it is now clear that the impact of this war

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Speaker 6: will affect the future of our country. First, let me

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Speaker 6: say once again, this is not our war. We will

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Speaker 6: not be drawn into the conflict that is not in

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Speaker 6: our national interest. And the most effective way we can

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Speaker 6: support the cost of living in Britain is to push

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Speaker 6: for de escalation in the Middle East and a reopening

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Speaker 6: of the straight up hor Moves, which is such a

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Speaker 6: vital route for energy. To that end, we're exploring each

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Speaker 6: and every diplomatic avenue that is available to us. The

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Speaker 6: Foreign Secretary and the Chancellor have met their counterparts in

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Speaker 6: the g seven. The Defense Secretary has been in the

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Speaker 6: Middle East speaking to our partners, and the UK has

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Speaker 6: now brought together thirty five nations around our statement of

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Speaker 6: intent to push as one for maritime security across the Gulf,

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Speaker 6: and today I can announce that later this week the

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Speaker 6: Foreign Secretary will host a meeting that brings those nations

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Speaker 6: together for the first time, where we will assess all

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Speaker 6: viable diplomatic and political measures that we can take. We

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Speaker 6: will also convene our military planners to look at how

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Speaker 6: we can marcial our capabilities and make the straight accessible

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Speaker 6: and safe after the fighting has stopped. Because I do

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Speaker 6: have to level with people on this. This will not

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Speaker 6: be easy.

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Speaker 3: This will not be easy. Is prepping them all for

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Speaker 3: a crisis ahead. But he's still saying we're not joining

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Speaker 3: the war, and he keeps saying, I just it is

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Speaker 3: all I ever wanted was a leader who would say things.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know not how even sure he means

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Speaker 3: it when he's like, I will always act in Britain's

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Speaker 3: national interests. Why is that so hard to find here

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Speaker 3: in the United States? And to see the Euros saying

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Speaker 3: stuff like this again? The most globalist people on the planet.

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Speaker 3: You're like, wow, what exactly have we done?

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Speaker 2: But it's well, they have no choice exactly, really have

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Speaker 2: no choice.

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Speaker 1: Don't have a choice, they can't the war.

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Speaker 2: And there's a couple of things I want to note

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Speaker 2: about his comments in particular. So first of all, he

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Speaker 2: talks about where he's Marshal getting this meeting together. So

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Speaker 2: while he's you know, sort of pushing the US, you know,

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Speaker 2: putting us at arm's length, he's looking for greater collaboration

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Speaker 2: between other European nations. And what he says is we're

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Speaker 2: going to just we're going to explore all diplomatic and

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Speaker 2: political solutions. And then he goes on to say something about,

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Speaker 2: you know, we're going to Marshal also our military resources

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Speaker 2: to uh to keep the street open and safe after

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Speaker 2: the fighting has ended, so you know, he wants to

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Speaker 2: get in. There's something about, yeah, well our military will

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Speaker 2: do something. Put not right now, not right now. Maybe

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Speaker 2: once this is all died down, we'll like play some

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Speaker 2: role and making sure it stays in a new status

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Speaker 2: quo or whatever. But right now, what we're looking at

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Speaker 2: is the political and diplomatic approaches here.

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Speaker 5: And you know, to your point earlier.

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Speaker 2: About always the US going to sanction you know, South Korea,

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Speaker 2: Japan or whoever tries to purchase oil from Iran. No,

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Speaker 2: I mean already we've backed off of sanctions on Iran.

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Speaker 2: You know, we've already given them sanctions relief. Why because

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Speaker 2: we can't take oil going you know, higher per barrel,

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Speaker 2: We can't take the higher prices at the pump. Trump

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Speaker 2: politically certainly cannot sustain that. So no, he's going to,

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Speaker 2: as he already is, allow countries to go in and

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Speaker 2: make deals with Iran, make deals with Russia. And so

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Speaker 2: those two countries in particular will end up being some

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Speaker 2: of the major beneficiaries here. And that's not to say that,

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Speaker 2: of course, Iran is taking a lot of damage. I mean,

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Speaker 2: their you know, steel industry has been hit very hard.

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Speaker 2: That's a major part of their non oil economy. So

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Speaker 2: that is significant. It's going to take a lot of

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Speaker 2: time to rebuild. They're going to lose you know, several

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Speaker 2: points probably on their GDP. All of that is very real.

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Speaker 2: But in terms of long term strategic perspective, you know,

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Speaker 2: Trump keeps saying and his defenders keep saying, short term

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Speaker 2: pain for long term gain. Yeah, short term pain of

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Speaker 2: the entire world for long term gain of Iran and

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Speaker 2: Russia and China is basically what we're looking at at

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Speaker 2: this point. And we can put C four up on

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Speaker 2: the screen. This is just some of the details here

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Speaker 2: from the Guardian about these talks with thirty five countries

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Speaker 2: for straight of horror moves. You know, they're just scrambling

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Speaker 2: trying to figure out what they can do because the

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Speaker 2: economic fallout for all of the European countries is going

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Speaker 2: to be extraordinarily grave.

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Speaker 5: And then we also see, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, and some of this is like you can look

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Speaker 2: at it and it's a little too little, too late.

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Speaker 2: We'd like to hear some more forceful condemnations of what's

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Speaker 2: going on here this illegal war. But you do see

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Speaker 2: some moves starting to be made. We can put CE

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Speaker 2: five up on the screen. France has now joined the

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Speaker 2: list of countries that is refusing airspace specifically to Israel

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Speaker 2: to transfer US weapons for the Iran war. So they

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Speaker 2: haven't directly rebuked the US in quite the same way,

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Speaker 2: but obviously Israel being our key partner in this whole war,

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Speaker 2: that is very significant.

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Speaker 5: We can put C six up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: Italy had already denied US aircraft access to their military base.

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Speaker 2: This is incredibly signing. Italy has a right wing leader.

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Speaker 2: You know, there was a lot of thought that she

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Speaker 2: that Maloney and Trump would be very close in a

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Speaker 2: lot of ways, they're ideologically aligned. But she's also been

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Speaker 2: under tremendous pressure domestically. They've had general strikes against the

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Speaker 2: you know, support for the genocide in Gaza. They have

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Speaker 2: you know, sort of like activated, you know, mobilized actual

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Speaker 2: labor power in the state. That makes it puts more

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Speaker 2: pressure on her perhaps than in other places. And they

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Speaker 2: could put C seven up on the screen just to

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Speaker 2: give you a sense. Germany being one of the largest

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Speaker 2: economies in the world, their growth forecast already cut as

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Speaker 2: according to the Washington Post, scrambles to contain the price

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Speaker 2: shock from the Iran war. And then we put this

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Speaker 2: last one up on the screen, you know, because this

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Speaker 2: has major political and economic implications here in the US.

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Speaker 2: So foreign central banks increasingly are selling US treasuries. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot of you know, somewhat complicated technical reasons for that,

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Speaker 2: but part of it is just decoupling from the US

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Speaker 2: and seeking other potentially safer avenues of investment, and so

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Speaker 2: as the demand for US treasuries goes down, the price

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Speaker 2: we have to pay, so that interest rate, that.

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Speaker 5: Bond yield goes up.

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Speaker 2: That's what makes our debt increasingly expensive. So that means

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Speaker 2: more money out of our pockets to have to pay

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Speaker 2: off that debt, and it creates a lot of problems.

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Speaker 2: That's why Trump seems to really watch the bond market

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Speaker 2: and the bond yields so incredibly closely and has made

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Speaker 2: all kinds of moan. It's not just in this war,

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Speaker 2: but you know, with his tariffs in and other places

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Speaker 2: during his presidency, when the bond yields get too high

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Speaker 2: to try to control them those prices.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the bond market obviously is dramatically important in all

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Speaker 3: of Trump's decision making, but it also look, I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's trite to talk too much about the petro dollar,

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Speaker 3: but it does matter. One of the reasons why allies

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Speaker 3: are so mad at US right now is the currency problem.

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Speaker 3: So I've talked about this with Japan. Because crude is

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Speaker 3: so high in price, the Indians, the Japanese, the South

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Speaker 3: Koreans are having to sell off their currency into dollars,

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Speaker 3: which is pushing the dollar up, devaluing their currency just

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Speaker 3: to be able to buy the more expensive oil from

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Speaker 3: the crisis that we created. So we're actually creating a

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Speaker 3: major fiscal crisis in a lot of these countries. I

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Speaker 3: believe Japan and South Korea are both trying to pass

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Speaker 3: emergency budgets right now to deal with the crisis. The

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Speaker 3: Indian rupee, I think it's sank to a couple of

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Speaker 3: days ago to a fourteen year low. They're trying their

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Speaker 3: best to buy Russian oil. People are now engaging in

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Speaker 3: all these insane schemes to try and buy Iranian oil

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Speaker 3: with wand But you know, this same ability to convert

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Speaker 3: into that and we're in a crypto is an exactly

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Speaker 3: one to one. But the Chinese banking system, the shadow

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Speaker 3: banking system outside of US control, is trying to be

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Speaker 3: built up for exactly transactions like this between treasuries, currency

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Speaker 3: and everything. Remember, like that really really makes it more

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Speaker 3: difficult for America to maintain it's economic supremacy, and it

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Speaker 3: will create some sort of different system in the future,

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Speaker 3: which is where things continue.

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Speaker 1: To look and look.

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Speaker 3: I think everybody knows I'm no fan of NATO. I mean,

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Speaker 3: if anything a silver lining is like, maybe this would

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Speaker 3: be the end of NATO and we could actually make

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Speaker 3: some real allies and have some security agreements, which makes

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Speaker 3: sense for us and not like north Mont Mathisonia or

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Speaker 3: something like that.

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Speaker 1: But you don't throw the baby.

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Speaker 3: Out with the bathwater, right Like the UK and Australia,

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Speaker 3: I would say, two most critical allies Anglo sphere literally

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Speaker 3: that we're supposed to be with, Well.

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Speaker 1: Look at how they're handled.

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Speaker 3: I mean their prime ministers are or presidents are both

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Speaker 3: going before the public and are being like, this is

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Speaker 3: a disaster, this is a crisis.

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Speaker 1: We are having, you know, serious hits. And then what

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Speaker 1: I'm watching is.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw this one Mark Dubowitz

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Speaker 3: from the from FDD, chair of the Israel lobby basically

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Speaker 3: here in Washington, regime change from the foundation of defensive democracies,

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Speaker 3: and he said, you know, five Eyes is useless. We

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Speaker 3: should go to countries which are really good for us,

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Speaker 3: like Israel and Ukraine. I was like, what, like Israel

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Speaker 3: and Ukraine are good intelligence partners, not the you know,

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Speaker 3: not Australia, like the five Eyes partners. Though we have

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Speaker 3: long blood brothers and have been allies now for decades,

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Speaker 3: like this is the issue that we have. I would

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Speaker 3: say in the G seven, if you look at the

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Speaker 3: rest of the G seven, we have marginally or majorly

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Speaker 3: hurt every single one of those countries. Those are the

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Speaker 3: countries that I would care about the most. And to

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Speaker 3: see that happen it's I mean shocking from an actual

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Speaker 3: ally perspective, and it will really, it will really punish

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Speaker 3: our standing with them in the future. There's talk and

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Speaker 3: stuff about Greenland, et cetera. But this is way beyond that.

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Speaker 3: Like when you put foreign economies who are allies for

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Speaker 3: decades into recessions, or you create these types of crises,

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Speaker 3: they will have the same reaction that America did after

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Speaker 3: the oil shock of the nineteen seventies. We cannot rely

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Speaker 3: on these people, period. We are going to have to

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Speaker 3: do something else. And look said, as I said, I'm

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Speaker 3: no great fan of NATO. However, the dissolution of NATO

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Speaker 3: today I stole this from my friend Bruno Masi's It

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Speaker 3: would have nothing to do with Russia. It would basically

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Speaker 3: enable a Israeli war on Turkey. That would be the

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Speaker 3: net effect, right, because the Turks in the Israelis hate Turkey,

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Speaker 3: that's basically what it would open his door to another

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Speaker 3: Middle Eastern war. I mean, already half of NATO is

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Speaker 3: seting that we have to even defend Turkey, even though,

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Speaker 3: of course, you know, they have their own domestic political

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Speaker 3: interests and they're furious with what's happening with Israel. So

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Speaker 3: that's the most likely war that would erupt if there's

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Speaker 3: any you know, withdrawal or end of NATO, is an

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Speaker 3: Israeli war on Turkey, which at this point I'm certain

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Speaker 3: the United States would somehow get dragged in, even though

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Speaker 3: the Turks are fifty thousand times better allies than the Israelis.

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Speaker 5: Now we wouldn't get dragged in.

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Speaker 1: We are really choiced to get in.

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Speaker 2: Because I think Trump, like is so Israel is basically

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Speaker 2: just a permanent war economy now right, Like that's that

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Speaker 2: is the way that state is structured. That's what keeps

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Speaker 2: Benjamin etnia who in power. That is the whole like

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Speaker 2: logic of their genocidal state, and increasingly that is I mean,

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Speaker 2: that's when Trump says, we can't do healthcare, we can't

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Speaker 2: do Medicare, we can't do childcare, because we've got to

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Speaker 2: just be at permanent war that's the vision for this

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Speaker 2: country that he is articulating as well. Now, Trump is

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Speaker 2: an old man, who knows how long he's going to

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Speaker 2: be around. I think after this regardless at this point

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Speaker 2: of how this war is brought to a conclusion, it's

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Speaker 2: going to be humiliating one way or another. So I

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Speaker 2: think this is pretty much the end of his presidency.

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Speaker 2: But that is the way that he is viewing the

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Speaker 2: direction of the United States as well. So yeah, he

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Speaker 2: would be eager to find a new country to go

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Speaker 2: to war with because that is the logic of this

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Speaker 2: state that he has created as well. So you're absolutely right,

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Speaker 2: as with many Trumpian things, like he can take something

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Speaker 2: that is already bad and that there's a genuine critique

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Speaker 2: of and then find a way to make it infinitely worse.

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Speaker 2: And that's what would happen with this direction of how

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Speaker 2: NATO would end. I thought Professor Pape made a great

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Speaker 2: point yesterday with Ryan and Emily and everybody should go

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Speaker 2: watch that interview as quite exordinary actually how he laid

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Speaker 2: things down. He's like NATO's already over, because do you

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Speaker 2: really think that you know, if you have this US

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Speaker 2: led US led coalition and there's an order that comes

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Speaker 2: down from this president or another that all the NATO

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Speaker 2: countries are just going to fall in line and take

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Speaker 2: it and do what. No, he's like, no, it's already dead.

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Speaker 2: Like it's already all but dead. So we're just living

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Speaker 2: with this sort of zombie organization for the time being.

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Speaker 1: That's all been true.

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Speaker 3: And yet you know, look, I don't even care, you know, necessarily,

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Speaker 3: I think there should just be a force piece dealer

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Speaker 3: on Russia and Ukraine. But for those of the people

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Speaker 3: who allegedly do care, congratulations, you know you went after Iran. Okay,

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Speaker 3: nice work. Now Russia is very rich. It is almost certain.

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Speaker 3: You know, we were talking about jet fuel. Well, jet fuel.

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Speaker 1: Let's say, if the things continue to be closed.

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Speaker 3: Where did the Europe buy all of its jet fuel

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Speaker 3: from before Russia and Ukraine from Russia.

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Speaker 1: Well, now, if.

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Speaker 3: You're going to remove all of this refined product from

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Speaker 3: the market and then they have to come to the

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Speaker 3: United States to try and buy it, what's more likely

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Speaker 3: they're going to keep doing that to support Ukraine or

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Speaker 3: are they just going to open things up?

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Speaker 1: They're going to buy from Russia on a long enough timeline.

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Speaker 3: That's the almost certain way that things are going to normalize,

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Speaker 3: So congratulations, you actually bailed Russia out, not that it

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Speaker 3: necessarily needed it, but will it will almost certain if

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Speaker 3: this crisis continues, there will be more normalization with Russia

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Speaker 3: than would have happened if this war had not contain

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Speaker 3: which actually really bolsters them because they didn't give a

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Speaker 3: single inch on sanctions or on the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: And then the Ukrainians themselves are basically in the last

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Speaker 3: gasp trying to hit all of these Russian oil facilities,

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Speaker 3: which is only driving the price higher, which only makes

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Speaker 3: the logic of normalizing relations with Russia even better as

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Speaker 3: the price of.

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Speaker 1: Oil continues to go up.

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Speaker 3: So nobody's gonna win in this one if you're allegedly

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Speaker 3: on the Ukrainian side, But that's almost certainly what's going

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Speaker 3: to happen.

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Speaker 2: So all right, Yeah, and I'm just just checking the

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Speaker 2: markets now. Oil right at this moment at eight fifty

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Speaker 2: five up at one eleven, and actually the West Texas

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Speaker 2: Intermediate is a little bit higher than Brent crude at

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Speaker 2: this point.

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Speaker 5: One eleven is where we are.

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Speaker 3: That is so pot that's what is that an eleven

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Speaker 3: percent jump in a single day before.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's exactly what happens.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so off the top of my head, that's like

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Speaker 3: four to twenty a gallon nationwide.

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Speaker 1: Yikes, that's not good. That's really bad.

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Speaker 5: Great, great speech you gave last night.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to the warcle.

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Speaker 3: So we have very ominous warnings about potential ground operations.

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Speaker 3: We do want to reiterate what that would actually look like.

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Speaker 3: The president remember he pointed to Mark Levin saying, we

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Speaker 3: need to go and get the uranium.

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Speaker 1: Well, let's go and put this up.

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Speaker 3: Here on the screen now from the Washington Post confirmed

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Speaker 3: some of the Wall Street Journal reporting that we have

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Speaker 3: brought you all before about what exactly it would take

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Speaker 3: to go and to get all of this uranium. So

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Speaker 3: let's just go through the plan, shall we. The plan

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Speaker 3: would represent enormous difficulty, would require the airlift of hundreds

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Speaker 3: or thousands of troops heavy equipment to support the EVA

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Speaker 3: excavation and recovery of radioactive material. It could take weeks

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Speaker 3: and would take place under fire deep inside of Iran.

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Speaker 3: So literally would entail not only dropping in troops but

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Speaker 3: also excavators. They would have to build a runway, a

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Speaker 3: temporary runway to have to come in and come out.

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Speaker 3: You would have to drop the Special Operations Force, and

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Speaker 3: they would have to drop a force to protect the

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Speaker 3: Special Operations Force, and it would take close air support

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Speaker 3: and ground operations to make sure that nobody could even

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Speaker 3: come close to them as they take the weeks and

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Speaker 3: or months to actually carry out this mission. And a

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Speaker 3: lot of people obviously think that that's totally crazy. But

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Speaker 3: what's even crazier is that it could even be in

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Speaker 3: the works. Remember the eighty second Airborne is there. You've

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Speaker 3: got special operations units. But we wanted to flag this.

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Speaker 3: This is a viral video that came out from San Diego.

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Speaker 3: Can we go and put this video up here on

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Speaker 3: the screen where a user actually took this video of

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Speaker 3: excavators that were moving via train to the Naval boatyards

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Speaker 3: in San Diego. They said, look, we don't know obviously

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Speaker 3: why all this equipment is moving in, but you could

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Speaker 3: see that it was very clearly moving on the train

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Speaker 3: to potentially good reason. You know, there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: use for military assets and for things like that. But

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Speaker 3: don't remember, or don't forget San Diego all of a

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Speaker 3: Special Operations forces and conventional horses that are all stationed

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Speaker 3: there not to mention the naval base, so we did

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Speaker 3: want to flag it as at the very least you

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Speaker 3: can see some of this type of equipment which is

439
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 3: making its way to the base, and who knows from

440
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 3: where it could go.

441
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 1: I don't even really know if it would have.

442
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 3: To be shipped over there if they have of course,

443
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 3: if they have to also drop it in via air.

444
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 3: But you can see very clearly what this would entail.

445
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 3: It's not just some grab and go style mission. The

446
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 3: Iranians and know you're coming. And remember in our last

447
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 3: show Crystal, we told everybody they hit that ammunition dump

448
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 3: in Isfahan, not a missile city, an ammunition dump specifically

449
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 3: of artillery and of weapons which would be used as

450
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 3: defense in some sort of ground combat operation.

451
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 1: I don't think that.

452
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,479
Speaker 3: Was a mistake that they hit that, and that you're

453
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 3: seeing all of this, not saying it's going to happen,

454
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 3: but saying if they did, they're setting the ground if

455
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 3: they want to.

456
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 2: I mean, those are some of the signs we talked

457
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 2: earlier about the eight tens. That would be another sign

458
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: you know that those are going to the region. You've

459
00:22:55,680 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 2: got also reports that some additional infrastructure around Isfa has

460
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 2: been struck things like, you know, bridges and other logistical

461
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 2: infrastructure that would make it more difficult for Iranians to

462
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 2: respond to any sort of an attack. There also worth

463
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 2: noting that this completely insane plan to seize this nuclear material.

464
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,959
Speaker 2: This was drawn up apparently at Trump's request, per this

465
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 2: report from the Washington Post. So this wasn't something the

466
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 2: military was like, Okay, here's one of your options. Here's

467
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 2: another option, here's the carg Island idea, here's this ido.

468
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 5: He was like, what would this actually look like?

469
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 2: Which I think is just a demonstration that this is

470
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: a direction that he is very interested in. You know,

471
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 2: it has a lot of Trumpian hallmarks. He would be

472
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 2: able to have some sort of the victory narrative. He

473
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 2: would be able to claim, as he did after the

474
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,360
Speaker 2: Twelve Day War, that their nuclear program was completely obliterated

475
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 2: and there was no chance for them to develop a

476
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 2: nuclear weapon, and so, you know, he would be able

477
00:23:56,560 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 2: to assert some sort of a victory of this whole mess.

478
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 2: But very likely, given the highly risky nature of what

479
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 2: is being contemplated here, it could be a complete and

480
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 2: utter disaster where it just completely fails. At the very

481
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,679
Speaker 2: least it's highly likely you will have significant casualties to

482
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 2: come out of such a risky operation. And then once

483
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 2: you've had you know, a large number of American service

484
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 2: members killed, are you really able to just walk away

485
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 2: at this point?

486
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 5: At that point?

487
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 2: And how does Iron respond, how does Israel respond, etc.

488
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: So you know, if I had to say this is

489
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 2: the direction that his psychology would most lead him towards.

490
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 2: I'm not even sure whether he's particularly made up his

491
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 2: mind about exactly what he wants to do. It seems

492
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,959
Speaker 2: like he's getting a bunch of assets in the region

493
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 2: to have a whole lot of different options. But to me,

494
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 2: the idea that they're just going to continue this air

495
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 2: only campaign for another two to three weeks, it's not

496
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 2: going to fundamentally change anything in terms of the strategic objectives,

497
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,239
Speaker 2: and then he's just going to walk away with his

498
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 2: presidency in shambles and having effectively, you know, de facto

499
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: declared a complete surrender to the Iranians.

500
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 5: That's very difficult for me.

501
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 3: And the other problem with this whole two to three

502
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 3: week timeline is, you know, the war is going to continue,

503
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 3: and it's not just us bombing them, it's them bombing

504
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 3: US and Israel. So let's put some of this video

505
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 3: up here on the screen that we have. Israel continues

506
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 3: to get pounded every night, and remember they're rationing missile interceptors.

507
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 3: They are having a lot more sites that are struck.

508
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 3: Anybody can go and can watch video of all of

509
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 3: the damage that has happened in Tel Aviv. Just yesterday

510
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 3: they were multiple foreign journalists and others reporting the number

511
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: of intense missiles barrages that were coming in as a

512
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 3: result of Iranian ballistic missiles which were not being intercepted.

513
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 3: And we're actually striking, as you guys can see just

514
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 3: from the ground of like what it looks like. You

515
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 3: did not see much of this in the very opening

516
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 3: days of the war, when their interceptor stockpile was much more.

517
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 3: That was I believe it was an oil refinery that

518
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 3: you all are watching right now on your screen and

519
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 3: you can actually see. Let's put the Times of Israel

520
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 3: report up there. They are even admitting right now Iran

521
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 3: and Hezbola launch attacks as Israelis are hosting the Passover Satyrs,

522
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 3: sending the millions into the shelters. But they also note

523
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 3: that the number of strikes was more than at any

524
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 3: time since the first week of the war. So it's

525
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 3: actually an increase in the number of missiles that you

526
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 3: saw that were coming directly into Israel. Not to mention

527
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 3: again all of the targets across the Gulf. Let's go

528
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 3: ahead and put D five and some of the other

529
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 3: video that we have from the Golf strikes.

530
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 1: This was a very striking video that came out.

531
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 3: This was an Iranian missile coming in and hitting a

532
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 3: facility near US troops.

533
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: You can actually see one of the troops there who's

534
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: in the video.

535
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 3: There's multiple other videos that even came out overnight before

536
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 3: or we started the show of facilities, US facilities in

537
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: Jordan that were being struck, I mean just all across

538
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 3: the Middle East. And you remember that there's an intense

539
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 3: amount of censorship that is coming out. We do know

540
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 3: that some three hundred or so US troops have been

541
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 3: wounded now so far, I believe six remain seriously wounded.

542
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 3: The vast majority have returned to service. But this continues

543
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 3: for two to three weeks. You just don't know. You

544
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 3: had the refueling tanker that went down over Iraq that

545
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 3: claimed the lives of some for service members. You got

546
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 3: thirteen now who've been confirmed dead, several hundred who have

547
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 3: been wounded. I believe a dozen or so who are

548
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 3: seriously wounded, and six or so who remain in critical care.

549
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 3: So it's not like that we haven't had a toll ourselves.

550
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 3: Not to mention all of the energy infrastructure and other

551
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 3: things that continue to be targeted every day. You can

552
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: watch and see the UAE straits of horn Moves, you know,

553
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 3: attacks and the straits of Hormos. You've seen attacks in

554
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 3: the Dubai, like in the port in the against Saudi Arabia.

555
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 3: There are multiple missile strikes that happen there, and they

556
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 3: still have the capability and the capacity to launch strikes

557
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 3: at the critical energy infrastructure. They're holding off on it

558
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 3: for right now, but they're ready to go if they

559
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 3: need to, if there's some sort of escalation. So just

560
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: keep that in mind, and we do have D six.

561
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 3: This is part of the problem about this strategic logic

562
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: which is happening, is that the axios is reporting the

563
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 3: Saudis sound like Mark Levin. They want the US to

564
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 3: finish the job by wiping Iran off the globe. Now

565
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 3: we don't want to, is what you have now is

566
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 3: a situation where the UAE and Saudi who have gone

567
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 3: all in with America right, well, now they're held hostage

568
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 3: their entire economies by Iran in the streets of Hormuz.

569
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 3: They don't want to pay the hostage toll, even though

570
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 3: that would be the rational thing to do at this point,

571
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 3: it would probably be easier for everybody involved. So they're

572
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 3: pushing the US. They're like, no, you have to finish

573
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 3: the job. You have to finish the job. And then

574
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 3: America's in a very tough position, right Crystal, because well,

575
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:03,959
Speaker 3: we can follow their lead. We could do what they

576
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 3: want to the detriment of our people and of course

577
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 3: of our forces, our nation what we want. But if

578
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 3: we don't do what they want, then maybe they're going

579
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 3: to say, well, okay, then all your troops have to go.

580
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 3: So we're in a very tough position where the people

581
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,719
Speaker 3: who are in the region who are US allies are

582
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 3: the people who are actually going to push us the

583
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 3: hardest to continue on with the war. It's only Qatar

584
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 3: and Oman really, which are the ones who are like, look,

585
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,240
Speaker 3: we can find some sort of diplomatic solution. And remember

586
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 3: that's only because they're much closer to Iran. The rest

587
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 3: of them, who are really all in and who have

588
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 3: their own problems, they are really pushing America to escalate

589
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 3: this war. So it's an alignment of Golf interest and

590
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 3: of Israeli interest to continue the war.

591
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we can put D eight up on the

592
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 2: screen here, which speaks to that. With regard to UAE,

593
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: I mean basically, they're sort of feeling like, all right,

594
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 2: we're in, and for them, it is it truly is

595
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 2: existential because you know Dubai Abu Dhabi, you know, these

596
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 2: family US backed anarchies that are installed there. They do

597
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 2: not feel that at this point, given the way that

598
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 2: they've been hit by Iran and the risk that would

599
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: persist if the US just walks away, they don't think

600
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 2: that that's something they can bear.

601
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 5: So they asked the UN.

602
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 2: To approve this measure to force the straight of hormves open,

603
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: you know, not that the UN really has any teeth

604
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 2: in this regard, but trying to get some sort of

605
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 2: international consensus around the idea that what Iran is doing

606
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 2: with the straight of Horm moves is in violation of

607
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: international law. And then this report D nine we can

608
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 2: put up on the scream from the Wall Street Journal

609
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: also was quite extraordinary. They say, UA wants to force

610
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 2: hormuves open and is willing to join the fight, so

611
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 2: meaning they would not just allow the US to you know,

612
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 2: use bases in their country, but they would also actively

613
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: join as combatants, which would be extremely significant. And so, yeah,

614
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 2: if you join as a combatant and then the war

615
00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 2: ends without Iran, you know, without the straight being open,

616
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 2: with Iran maintaining significant military capabilities, that is going to

617
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 2: be a dire situation for UAE.

618
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 5: So that's the logic.

619
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 2: That they've you know, that they've adopted at this point.

620
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 2: And so if Trump tries to sort of unilaterally walk away,

621
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 2: which to me is looking less and less likely all

622
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 2: the time. But let's say he tries to do that, well,

623
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 2: Saudi is going to be calling him, UAE is going

624
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 2: to be calling them and basically being like, what the

625
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 2: hell you can't do this.

626
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 5: So one of Iran's.

627
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: Major goals that they've talked about from the beginning of

628
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 2: this war is we don't want US bases in the region.

629
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: And a lot of these countries are going to look

630
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 2: in the aftermath of this and say, was this really

631
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 2: worth it to have these US forces on our soil

632
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,479
Speaker 2: and make us in our countries and our people and

633
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 2: our key assets to make them a target as well.

634
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 1: That's the problem.

635
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 3: I mean, I really do get it from their perspective.

636
00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 3: You're Saudi, You're the UAE. You have bought ten ends

637
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 3: of billions of dollars from the United States. You have

638
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 3: invested hundreds of billions, if not trillions into the US economy.

639
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: It was built on a.

640
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 3: Singular, singular promise, we do this, you protect us. Now

641
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 3: we created a situation where literally almost one hundred percent

642
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: of their economy is reliant on the straight to Hornmouz,

643
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 3: which we have now created a situation where it's closed

644
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 3: and we're telling other countries, hey, you got to go

645
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 3: and you got to open it, which is not like

646
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 3: Saudi in the UA you can. So they're like, hey,

647
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 3: what was all this money for? We literally this is

648
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 3: the reason that we did it. So you got to

649
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 3: go and you've got to finish the job. But we

650
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 3: don't want to. So then for them, I mean, what

651
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: are they going to do. They're going to rewrite the

652
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 3: way that they have their entire economy or security relationship

653
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 3: with the US. That seems untenable. It seems equally untenable

654
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 3: for them. I mean, they just took all these missiles

655
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 3: and all these hits from Iran. Can they really just

656
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 3: sit there and be sitting ducks? Theoretically yes, but it

657
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 3: would create you would need a bunch of security guarantees

658
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 3: and other operations from the US which are not going

659
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 3: to happen. Or you could abandon America, which also seems

660
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 3: equally disastrous for them because they now they do have

661
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 3: this real existential threat, so they're they're really in a

662
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 3: real tough spot. I don't see any situation in the

663
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 3: near future where they're paying the Iranian toll. I just

664
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 3: I can't see it right now because the amount of

665
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 3: pain they've experienced, it's not enough to get to that

666
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: threshold where you want to make a deal with your enemies,

667
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 3: even though unfortunately they'll probably get there at some point

668
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 3: if we stay the course of where we are, or

669
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 3: we're just going to escalate to an insane and dramatic occupation,

670
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 3: which also seems you know, very very likely if we

671
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: continue on this course, and you know, you can just

672
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 3: see though that the damage that they're taking in Israel

673
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 3: and in the Gulf, that only points in one direction,

674
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 3: you know, to irrational people, maybe people like we're watching

675
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:53,959
Speaker 3: listening to this, or like, wow, we should get out

676
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 3: of this. Yes, we agree, but for them it only

677
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 3: pushes them up the escalation ladder and increases the logic

678
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 3: of total war, which would of course draw us in

679
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 3: and create this conflict in an even more prolonged situation.

680
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 1: It's really bad. All right. We've got Nicholas Molder.

681
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 3: He is a historian of economic warfare and a professor

682
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 3: at Cornell University. He's going to join us now to

683
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 3: talk about the end of the ability of US to

684
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 3: wage unilateral economic warfare. Joining us now is Nicholas Moulder.

685
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 3: He is a professor at Cornell University. He's an expert

686
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 3: on economic warfare sanctions, and he wrote a very interesting

687
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 3: piece in the Financial Times that we wanted to talk

688
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 3: to him about. Let's ahead and put this up here

689
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 3: on the screen. This really grabbed my attention. What you

690
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 3: wrote is that the era of US dominance in economic

691
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 3: warfare is over. America has long used sanctions to coerce adversaries,

692
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 3: but Iran and China can wield powerful economic weapons. To Nicholas,

693
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 3: tell us a little bit about the study that you've

694
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:56,919
Speaker 3: made here now so far of US sanctions, their effectiveness now,

695
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 3: and how they're working out in this war with Iran.

696
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 7: Yes, So, the United States came into this century in

697
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 7: the twenty first century with a really unique position of

698
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 7: economic power, and it's been using that for years against

699
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 7: many countries to impose economic and financial sanctions. So Iran

700
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 7: has been inter sanction since two thousand and nine. They

701
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 7: were briefly lifted and then there was a nuclear deal,

702
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 7: and then Trump got out of that nuclear deal in

703
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 7: twenty eighteen and reimposed maximum pressure sanctions. But if you

704
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 7: look at any number of other conflicts there were in Ukraine,

705
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 7: of course, there were big sanctions imposed against Russia export

706
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 7: controls on chips going to China. So it's been a

707
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:39,320
Speaker 7: big part of US a Chinese competition, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela.

708
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 7: All the conflicts I think that we are seeing at

709
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 7: the moment really involved the use of sanctions, and the

710
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 7: United States has been using them a lot, really because

711
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,760
Speaker 7: it gives an easy alternative to boots on the ground

712
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 7: and to directing more military effort towards these conflicts. But

713
00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:00,839
Speaker 7: increasingly you see that the sanctions not only don't really work,

714
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 7: or they take a very long time to work. They

715
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 7: also have really counterproductive effects. One of them is that

716
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 7: the targets of these sanctions begin to cooperate more so

717
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 7: a lot of these countries are driven together more by

718
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 7: the fact that they are all exposed to this US pressure.

719
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 7: We can see that at the moment, particularly in the

720
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 7: rise of this big shadow fleet, so a very large

721
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 7: part of the global transport infrastructure that is now being

722
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 7: devoted to basically trading oil outside of the reach of

723
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 7: US sanctions, and increasingly also regimes that are exposed to it.

724
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 7: Countries that are exposed to sanctions becoming more and more hardline.

725
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 7: They don't see any real reason to negotiate with the

726
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 7: United States, and they don't really trust the United States

727
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 7: as a negotiating position. And for that reason, I think

728
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 7: that sanctions, often first build as an alternative to war,

729
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 7: have now really become kind of an on ramp to war.

730
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 7: And this is a conflic where we.

731
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 2: See that to really, yeah, that's a fascinating insight, and

732
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 2: I think an important one. The one, well, you have

733
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 2: a number of insights here, but another significant insight in

734
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: this piece is just how consequential it will be if

735
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 2: Iran maintains control and there's a new status quo with

736
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 2: regard to the Strait of Hormuz, because that effectively gives

737
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 2: them sanction powerful sanctionability as well.

738
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 7: Yes, absolutely, and it'll be very interesting to see in

739
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 7: the next few weeks if a regime for the control

740
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 7: of the Straight of Hormoves emerges. There are some indications

741
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 7: now in the last few days that Iran has begun

742
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 7: to levy tolls on ships that can pause, and moreover

743
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 7: that it is implementing a kind of tiered system of egress,

744
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 7: so being able to leave the Strait of Hormus friendly

745
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 7: countries that are friendly to Iran. So we've had confirmations

746
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 7: that Pakistan, but also the Philippines and China have been

747
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 7: able to send tankers and ships through the Straight of

748
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 7: Hormoves can go through it without any problem. Then there

749
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 7: seems to be a group of neutrals that are forced

750
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 7: to pay tolls. And here the question is really whether

751
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 7: Iran it poses a very heavy toll or if it's

752
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 7: going to be a light one. One of the things

753
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 7: about this current energy crisis caused by the war is

754
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 7: that actually the cost of one or two dollars per

755
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 7: barrel tall is not that much, so it actually, I

756
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 7: think might be surprising how quickly countries see this as

757
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 7: a price worth paying to regain access to some of

758
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 7: their energy flows. After all, right, the United States have

759
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 7: imposed fifteen percent teriffs on most other countries last year,

760
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 7: and most countries accept that too, So it's actually, I

761
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 7: think possible that countries accept this more quickly than we

762
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 7: might expect. And then the final group of countries that

763
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 7: those are hostile countries in Iran's words, they are continued

764
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 7: to be They're continuing to be denied access to the

765
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 7: Gulf and also the ability to leave from there. And

766
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 7: I think one of the things we might see is

767
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 7: that Iran is going to really use that three tiered

768
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 7: system to try and break up some of the coalition

769
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 7: behind the war and to try and move countries that

770
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 7: the US is now hoping might help open to straight

771
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 7: up from moves and tear those countries away from the

772
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 7: United States and explore some rifts in that coalition. And

773
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 7: particularly Asian countries are in a very dire situation, so

774
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 7: they really need access. So we'll have to see how

775
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 7: it's used, but potentially a very powerful source of diplomatic

776
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:12,720
Speaker 7: leverage for Iran.

777
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 1: Here, got it?

778
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 3: So, Nicholas, you just references to put E one up

779
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 3: here on the screen. This is about secret codes and

780
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 3: demands for Wan fees to get ships through Iran's Hormus tollbooth.

781
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 3: What you're saying is that sanctions, and specifically I really

782
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:31,919
Speaker 3: think the Ukraine sanctions created the runway for this new

783
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 3: ecosystem of oil and these shadow fleets that move across

784
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 3: the seas, and that Iran in this situation is really

785
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 3: the beneficiary of that and could accelerate that trend of

786
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 3: booking oil on Chinese Wan or on crypto entirely outside

787
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 3: of the US banking system, which makes sanctions effectively irrelevant

788
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 3: in any sort of future conflict.

789
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 1: Is that right?

790
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 7: Yeah, that certainly seems to be one hope. Whether they

791
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 7: can do it as an open question, but they definitely

792
00:39:57,080 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 7: have means available to them in the infrat structure that's

793
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:03,760
Speaker 7: grown up around that shadow fleet to make those payments

794
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 7: and receive them. And the question is how many neutral

795
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 7: countries and other traders in the rest of the world

796
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 7: are going to enter that system and use it basically

797
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 7: to settle these trades. Even if they in doing so

798
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,800
Speaker 7: run the risk of being exposed to US financial sanctions,

799
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 7: and that's going to be a difficult calculus to make.

800
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 7: But I think as this energy crisis gets worse, we

801
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 7: will see more and more countries trying to run the

802
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 7: risk of being entangled in US financial sanctions because ultimately,

803
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 7: what you would like more and what countries need more

804
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 7: for their economy is energy, fertilizer, all the things that

805
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 7: possibly the straight before moves right. So there's a real

806
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 7: premium on being able to access the physical goods, and

807
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 7: some measure of financial sanctions risk may need to be tolerated.

808
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 7: And moreover, we've seen also the Trump administration already lift

809
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,760
Speaker 7: some sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. They've lifted

810
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 7: them on Russian oil at sea. That wasn't intended at all.

811
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 7: It was really an improvisation to deal with the second

812
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 7: order effect of their own economic war and their direct

813
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 7: military attack on Iran. But it's already shown right the

814
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 7: in principle the US is willing to lift some of

815
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 7: those sanctions, and that too, I think will strengthen the

816
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 7: Iranian negotiating position. So one question is, depending on how

817
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:20,320
Speaker 7: long this war goes on, whether Iran will ultimately agree

818
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 7: maybe to open hormones to all countries in return for

819
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 7: a much broader sanctions lifting. So that's also financial sanctions

820
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 7: on Iran. That means the ability of other countries to

821
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,800
Speaker 7: invest in Iran and potentially help reconstruct some of its economy,

822
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 7: things the Iranians have been wanting for many, many years,

823
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 7: and they've always lacked the means to do so, and

824
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 7: potentially now they have an instrument in their hands with

825
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:44,760
Speaker 7: which they can try and negotiate for that broader access

826
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 7: to the world economy.

827
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,879
Speaker 2: Let's talk about Russia a little bit more here, because

828
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 2: Osaga and I've been tracking, you know, the I guess

829
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 2: degradation of the US sanctions regime, especially as it applies

830
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 2: to Russia's war on Ukraine. And you know, we made

831
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 2: Russia the most sanction and country on the planet, and

832
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,439
Speaker 2: certainly it had a negative impact on them, but they

833
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 2: also had planned for that, and they've been able to

834
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 2: withstand that, you know, aggressive sanctions regime, and now de

835
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 2: facto they are getting some significant sanctions relief because of

836
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 2: our desperation, the desperate situation that we find ourselves in

837
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 2: because of a war of choice in a run. So

838
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 2: how impactful do you see those developments as being in

839
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 2: terms of sort of, you know, creating an alternative financial

840
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: infrastructure that allows people to evade sanctions and also in

841
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 2: demonstrating that there are severe limits to the ability of

842
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 2: the US to really extract you know, effective pain or

843
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 2: force some sort of regime overthrow with our sanctions.

844
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

845
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 7: I think that the shadow fleet as it's emerged in

846
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,839
Speaker 7: the last decade and a half has really been an

847
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 7: important factor in continuing to facilitate this trade, and it

848
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,280
Speaker 7: has now also created a whole network of shell companies.

849
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 7: Oftentimes these are in jurisdictions where you know, individuals in

850
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 7: come also go to evate taxation. So this is an

851
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 7: offshore economy that also exists for the benefit of corporations

852
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 7: and of people with a lot of money who put

853
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 7: their assets there. And the shadow fleet is using those

854
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 7: same jurisdictions. So we're talking about Caribbean islands. The Emirates

855
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 7: actually are an important hub of this as well, Hong

856
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 7: Kong and places like this. And the shadow fleet depends

857
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,919
Speaker 7: really on a network of brokers and intermediaries that can

858
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 7: incorporate companies in those jurisdictions. And the question then is

859
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 7: can the sanctions policy makers in the United States and

860
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 7: in Europe track down those companies quickly enough to put

861
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:44,280
Speaker 7: them on the sanctions blacklist before these people create new companies.

862
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 7: And it's a real cat and mouse game. And we've

863
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 7: seen right in the global fight against tax evasion that

864
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 7: no matter how well intentioned you are, it is very

865
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 7: difficult to keep tracking these offshore entities quickly enough. It's possible,

866
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 7: but we are going to need a big investment in

867
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 7: state capacity to do that. And more broadly to your

868
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 7: question Crystal about the limits of US leverage, I think

869
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 7: one of the things that the Russia sanctions have really

870
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 7: shown is that Asia is the absolutely pivotal economic player

871
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 7: in the world economy when it comes to making sanctions

872
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 7: effective and particularly making them hermetic. And one of the

873
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 7: things that was sorely underestimated in the run up to

874
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 7: the war in Ukraine is that Western policymakers believe that

875
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 7: if they launched very big sanctions those would be sufficient

876
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 7: and they didn't really need to incorporate large Asian economies.

877
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 7: And what the last three four years have shown is

878
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:39,360
Speaker 7: that if only China and India continue to buy Russian oil,

879
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 7: that is actually enough to keep the Russian economy afloat

880
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 7: and even doing reasonably well. The sanctions are definitely imposing

881
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 7: costs on Russia, but they can survive for the time being,

882
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 7: and they're not under any immediate very strong pressure, and

883
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 7: that's really key. So I think that the Russia Ukraine

884
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 7: War is the first geopolitical crisis where we see that

885
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 7: Western economic power alone is not enough to make sanctions decisive.

886
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 7: You really need to have Asian countries on board, and

887
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 7: even all the major Asian economies, and that's exactly what

888
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 7: you see in this crisis too. It really, I think

889
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 7: is going to be a question of how Iran and

890
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 7: the Asian economies negotiate, because those links are the most important,

891
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 7: and that's I think where we're going to see the

892
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:26,319
Speaker 7: most important developments about what might stabilize out of this

893
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 7: Hormo's control weapon.

894
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, got it.

895
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 3: Well, thank you so much for joining us, professor. We

896
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 3: appreciate you, and we'll continue to read your work. So

897
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:35,760
Speaker 3: thank you, appreciate your time, Thanks.

898
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 7: You very much for the invitation.

899
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 2: Pleasure so very much related to the world, though a

900
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 2: bit of a separate issue. We've been tracking some signs

901
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 2: of concern we'll say, in the massive AI sector, in

902
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 2: the AI data center sector in particular, which has been

903
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 2: the backbone of what's kind of kept the US economy

904
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,720
Speaker 2: afloat in spite of declines in almost every other sector

905
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:01,760
Speaker 2: of the economy. So let's put this up on the screen.

906
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 2: I saw this with quite a lot of interest yesterday

907
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg. They're saying that half of US data centers

908
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 2: planned for twenty twenty six are expected to be delayed

909
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 2: or canceled. One big reason is shortage of electrical equipment

910
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 2: such as transformers, switch gear, and batteries. US does not

911
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 2: have the manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely on imports

912
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 2: and very much saga related to the last segment we

913
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 2: did on economic sanctions and economic power. Most of those

914
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 2: imports come from China, so we are really betting the

915
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 2: whole farm on this AI revolution. The particular approach that

916
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 2: we have taken that ORAI companies have taken is building

917
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 2: out as many of these data centers as they possibly can.

918
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 2: There is an insane amount of money being spent here.

919
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 2: You also have a political backline in all of these localities,

920
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,760
Speaker 2: you know that's really cross partisan against these data centers

921
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 2: being located in the town. And then while this big

922
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 2: bet is being placed, at the same time, they're projecting

923
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,879
Speaker 2: out all these data centers that they don't even have

924
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 2: the parts to build, and you know, are trying to

925
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 2: import from China, et cetera. But even trying to import them,

926
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 2: they simply don't have the materials to build out what

927
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 2: they have promised investors they are going to build out.

928
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 2: So seems like a pretty alarming situation.

929
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 3: Well, let's also remember what did Ryan Emily cover in

930
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:37,240
Speaker 3: their first show yesterday. Amazon facility got hit in the Gulf,

931
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 3: And I actually don't think we can take this away

932
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,280
Speaker 3: from the war because let's think about it, the AI

933
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 3: data center is fundamentally needs cheap power. Like the reason

934
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 3: why you're in a crisis with data centers in the

935
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 3: first place. Why it actually is like a binary choice

936
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 3: between data center or our own electricities because we don't

937
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 3: have the electrical grid capacity right now. LNG and gas

938
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 3: prices are actually pretty good here in America, and it's

939
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:05,799
Speaker 3: largely because we don't have the capacity to liquefy it

940
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 3: and to send it abroad, which doesn't make it as

941
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 3: much of a global commodity. However, it's very possible in

942
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,359
Speaker 3: the future that we may have to ramp up liquification

943
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 3: and export in order to backfill a complete closure of

944
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 3: the Straits of Hormuz. And remember that's what Donald Trump wants.

945
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,839
Speaker 3: He wants Europeans and others to come and buy LNG

946
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 3: and other product from America. That would actually increase the

947
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 3: overall price of our own electricity prices here in the US,

948
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:33,760
Speaker 3: which would make it much more difficult for these AI

949
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,759
Speaker 3: models and others because and data center projects which need

950
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,399
Speaker 3: cheaper power. And then on top of all of that,

951
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 3: you have venture capital investment. A massive portion of venture

952
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 3: capital investment comes from the Gulf. Also it comes from

953
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 3: all over the rest of the world, sovereign wealth funds, etc.

954
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 3: Guess what's happening with all that money. It's drying up,

955
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 3: or at the very least, they're having to massively pause

956
00:48:56,760 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 3: a lot of their buildouts. So there's like multiple factors

957
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:03,280
Speaker 3: as to why this is all going to continue to spiral.

958
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,359
Speaker 3: And the AI bubble, you know, itself, was propped up

959
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 3: on big tech valuations which were obviously disconnected from reality.

960
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:14,239
Speaker 3: But fundamentally, like what is the US economy? We don't

961
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 3: really make a lot of shit we just buy it.

962
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:20,440
Speaker 3: We're a massive consumer economy. Well, we're all about to

963
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:24,319
Speaker 3: tick take a huge haircut on consumer spending because of

964
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 3: gas prices and because of inflation, which just means by definition,

965
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 3: consumer spending is going to go down. That's going to

966
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 3: drag down everything, not just AI bubble plus consumer sentiment.

967
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,399
Speaker 3: So you put all this stuff together and you can

968
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,240
Speaker 3: see how the real economy.

969
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 1: Would go down. Why an AI bubble pop is very very.

970
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:45,359
Speaker 3: Much I think in the in an open conversation, and

971
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 3: that was the only thing propping up our GDP at

972
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 3: all was building out these data centers. This it's another

973
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 3: reason why the war.

974
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 1: What a folly? What a folly.

975
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:55,840
Speaker 3: You're going to go to war and hit the energy

976
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,399
Speaker 3: supply of the whole world at a time when that's

977
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 3: the only thing that's booing the United States economy and

978
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 3: then drop the bottom out of consumer spending too.

979
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: So it's a mess.

980
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:07,799
Speaker 5: And antagonized China too.

981
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 2: And at a time would you have not built out

982
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 2: the industrial capacity to be self sufficient? Far to the contrary,

983
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 2: I mean a lot of during the Trump administration. In fact,

984
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 2: we've gone backwards in a lot of regards with respect

985
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:24,279
Speaker 2: to trying to build out our own industrial capacity, so

986
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:28,400
Speaker 2: you're you know, antagonizing the entire world supposedly, you know,

987
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,560
Speaker 2: the way that the Trump administration and these heads of

988
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 2: American AI tech companies, the way they see things as

989
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 2: this like existential race versus China to be the first

990
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 2: to dominate the AI sphere. And yet we're still, in

991
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 2: the most basic level, fundamentally dependent on China to be

992
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 2: able to import these parts for a bunch of these

993
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 2: rare earths, you know, all sorts of portions of this.

994
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 2: We've also talked about helium being disrupted in the straight

995
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 2: up hormos and how that ties in as well. So

996
00:50:56,400 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 2: just on multiple levels, we've created a massive crisis for

997
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 2: the AI industry that we've decided to apparently batter whole

998
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 2: economy on. And those cracks are just starting to show.

999
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 2: There were some and let's put F three up on

1000
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,479
Speaker 2: the screen. You know, it's hard to say what's going

1001
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 2: on here behind the scenes, why these decisions are being made,

1002
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 2: but we've got claud code users who are hitting usage

1003
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 2: limits faster than expected, and they're putting in some limits

1004
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 2: for you know, people who were extensively using Claude sort

1005
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 2: of trying to pull back, especially during the highest use hours,

1006
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,880
Speaker 2: pull back some of the usage of Claude. You also

1007
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 2: had this story F four where Sora, the video generation

1008
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 2: site from open ai, has been completely It's being completely

1009
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 2: shut down ending in April. This was announced with a

1010
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:53,920
Speaker 2: lot of fanfare. This was a central sort of core

1011
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 2: promise and achievement of open Ai. The idea was that

1012
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:01,360
Speaker 2: Soro was going to be a major part of their

1013
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,440
Speaker 2: plans for the future, and now that is being shut

1014
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 2: down as well. Some of this, too, Sager speaks to

1015
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 2: the fact that the business models just haven't as of

1016
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 2: yet really panned down. You know, it has a lot

1017
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:16,879
Speaker 2: of similarities to the early Internet phase where you had

1018
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 2: all these websites and all this promise and yet a

1019
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 2: lot of and obviously the Internet worked down and a

1020
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 2: lot of companies did make a lot of money, but

1021
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:26,840
Speaker 2: in the early days some of the business models didn't

1022
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 2: make any sense. And so what these ai companies needed

1023
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 2: was a lot of time in bandwidth and patients from

1024
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,879
Speaker 2: investors willingness to continue to funnel them tons and tons

1025
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:40,239
Speaker 2: and tons of money cheap energy to continue this data

1026
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 2: center build out while they figure out some sort of

1027
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 2: revenue model that is actually going to generate profits that

1028
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 2: justify these massive investments, and what the impact of the

1029
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 2: war I think is effectively to dramatically shrink those timelines

1030
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:57,680
Speaker 2: and put a lot more pressure on all of these companies.

1031
00:52:57,800 --> 00:53:00,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think, you know, looking at first of all,

1032
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 3: no tears for Sora or for their Disney porn, which

1033
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 3: is let's call it what it is, that's what it

1034
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:08,399
Speaker 3: was about, and all of their erotica.

1035
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,240
Speaker 1: That they just abandoned with chat GPT.

1036
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 3: But really I think look, limits, limits and server time

1037
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:18,760
Speaker 3: is really about power. Like this is an entire conversation

1038
00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:21,720
Speaker 3: about power. And by the way, I mean, it's pretty

1039
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 3: shocking that we're in this crisis and not a single

1040
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 3: national leader is saying, hey, don't doesn't this mean that

1041
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 3: we should just like become more energy independent?

1042
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 1: And the answer is obviously yes.

1043
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:37,000
Speaker 3: I actually anticipate all of the Asian countries and maybe

1044
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 3: a lot of the European countries this could finally push

1045
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 3: them over the edge to nuclear power to overcome their

1046
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 3: fifty year hangover over the issue. They're burning more coal

1047
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 3: right now in Asia than probably ever before, and they

1048
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 3: will continue to do so as long as this crisis continues.

1049
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:55,799
Speaker 3: Because people need electricity, but here at home, like this

1050
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 3: should be the impetus to be like, hey, we need

1051
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 3: to be one hundred percent energy independent, because even if

1052
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 3: we are a net exporter of oil, with oil at

1053
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:08,000
Speaker 3: a global commodity, we're still very vulnerable to a shock.

1054
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:10,000
Speaker 3: This is the I mean, why are we still paying

1055
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:12,279
Speaker 3: four dollars a gallon in gas if we are a

1056
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 3: net exporter And the answer is because of this global commodity,

1057
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:18,919
Speaker 3: which we still remain entirely reliant on on but where

1058
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 3: there's no like real vision or even plan really you know,

1059
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 3: to do anything about that. And if you want a

1060
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:26,959
Speaker 3: data center, you can have that too. If there's cheap

1061
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 3: and abundant power, then none of us really have to

1062
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 3: pick and choose. But that's what I think that this

1063
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 3: whole conversation is going to be about in the future,

1064
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 3: and that's really bad for AI. And the worst part

1065
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 3: is that probably just means a recession. I mean, already,

1066
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 3: you know, things were on the edge in terms of

1067
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 3: inflation and consumer sentiment, but with gas at four dollars

1068
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 3: a gallon for at least a few months likely you know,

1069
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:51,280
Speaker 3: at this time, I don't know, how can you possibly

1070
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 3: you know, pull out of a spiral like that because

1071
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:55,760
Speaker 3: of all of the follow on effects. I have high inflation,

1072
00:54:55,840 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 3: that means high rates and no rate cuts. There's going

1073
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:00,920
Speaker 3: to be you know, drop drop in the stock market. Already,

1074
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 3: I think the stock market is down a couple percent

1075
00:55:03,280 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 3: at the very least year to date. It could have

1076
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 3: an entirely down year. Overall. All of these things are

1077
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 3: just bad. Also, you know, one story, you and I

1078
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 3: haven't talked about private credit. I'm not sure if you've

1079
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 3: been reading or to keeping your eye on that.

1080
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:18,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, the private credit markets are really drying up.

1081
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 3: That has a lot of impact actually on tech, on

1082
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:22,560
Speaker 3: venture capital, and more so, that could be another place

1083
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 3: where everything would could blow up, especially on top of

1084
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,240
Speaker 3: what's happening with Iran. It's a majorly important financial story.

1085
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:31,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just looking. There was actually a headline

1086
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,240
Speaker 2: that came across this morning that I was just looking

1087
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 2: for Blue Owl capped redemptions after investors asked to withdraw

1088
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:41,399
Speaker 2: twenty two percent of the private credit giants thirty six

1089
00:55:41,480 --> 00:55:45,240
Speaker 2: billion dollar fund. So another private credit giant that's saying

1090
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:49,200
Speaker 2: that's effectively experiencing bank run And this is you know,

1091
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 2: not the first instance of this that we've seen over

1092
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 2: the past several weeks. But you know, zooming out to

1093
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:58,280
Speaker 2: your point, I think nuclear yes is a potential option

1094
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 2: and renewables, and the US under Trump has effectively bet

1095
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:06,480
Speaker 2: like we're going to steal Venezuela's oil. We obviously have

1096
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 2: a lot of fossil fuel production ourselves. Trump has said

1097
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 2: multiple times, now you know what he wants to do

1098
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:14,919
Speaker 2: in Iran is take their oil as well. I think

1099
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 2: the bet from the US in terms of energy was

1100
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 2: we are going to be this fossil fuel behemoth, and

1101
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:24,840
Speaker 2: obviously it's not working out too well for US in

1102
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:28,800
Speaker 2: terms of the Iran war, but that was the idea. China, meanwhile,

1103
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 2: has aggressively invested in renewable technology. You know, they are

1104
00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:36,360
Speaker 2: at the bleeding edge in terms of solar panel development.

1105
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 2: Those renewable technologies have gotten much much better, and obviously

1106
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 2: we've talked a lot about how their ev tech is

1107
00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:46,360
Speaker 2: just like blows Tesla anybody in the US out of

1108
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 2: the water. So you know, they're well positioned on that

1109
00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 2: front as well, not to mention having been much more

1110
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 2: strategic about securing the supply lines to enable that technology

1111
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 2: as well. So that's the direction that they decided to

1112
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 2: you know, that's where they decided to place their bets.

1113
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 2: And you know, I think there's going to be a

1114
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 2: lot that's going to be pushing the world in that

1115
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 2: direction because it feels a lot more secure than you know,

1116
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:11,840
Speaker 2: hoping that the oil supply through the strait of Horboos

1117
00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 2: remains open and free and safe from any sort of interference.

1118
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 2: There was one last story that I just wanted to

1119
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 2: get in here because it did significant f two on AI,

1120
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 2: which is that Anthropic, which is supposed to be the

1121
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 2: paragon of safe AI development. These are supposed to be

1122
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 2: the responsible players in the field. They accidentally leaked five

1123
00:57:36,880 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 2: hundred thousand lines of their own source code, and contained

1124
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 2: in here was obviously all sorts of information about how

1125
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:47,120
Speaker 2: you know, the product works and their approach, et cetera.

1126
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 2: There were also there were also product updates that haven't

1127
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:53,760
Speaker 2: been released yet that gave you know, everybody in the world,

1128
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 2: including their competitors, inside into Okay, here's what clawed code

1129
00:57:57,320 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 2: is going to be the direction that they're moving in now.

1130
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 2: And I'm sure there's I mean, of course, Anthropic is

1131
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:06,200
Speaker 2: embarrassed and it's in patro blow to them it's a

1132
00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 2: big problem for them. But to me, the significant piece

1133
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 2: is just even the ones who are supposed to be

1134
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 2: the responsible, good guys, being safe and cautious, etc. Are

1135
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 2: prone to really self destructive, incredible, sloppy, humiliating errors. And

1136
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:27,600
Speaker 2: I don't think that that should comfort anyone about the

1137
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:29,520
Speaker 2: direction that AI is going in.

1138
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:31,959
Speaker 1: Very true. All right, thank you guys so much for watching.

1139
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:32,720
Speaker 1: We appreciate it.

1140
00:58:32,720 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 3: There'll be a Friday show for everybody tomorrow, and we're

1141
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 3: of course we're all on ground invasion watch, so we'll

1142
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 3: see you all later.