1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. What's the state of 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: corporate governance? The deficit is a real issue. The US 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:09,880 Speaker 1: economy continues to send mixed signals. The financial stories that 4 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: cheap our world fed action to con concerns over dollar 5 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: liquidity and encouraging China data. The five hundred wealthiest people 6 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: in the world. Through the eyes of the most influential 7 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: voices Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, star Ward CEO, 8 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: Kevin Johnson sec Chairman J Clayton. Bloomberg wool Street Week 9 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. A light at the 10 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: end of the tunnel, But how long is the tunnel? 11 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: And what lies between us and the light? Welcome to 12 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. New York went 13 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: through what we thought was the worst of the coronavirus 14 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 1: last spring, as hospital beds filled, intensive care units were overwhelmed, 15 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: and the elderly died in nursing homes. Dr Stephen Corman 16 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: was in the vanguard of trying to protect New Yorkers 17 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: as President and CEO of New York Presbeterian Hospital, the 18 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: leading medical center in the area. As difficult as it 19 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: was in March and April. There are some ways in 20 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 1: which this new wave maybe even worse. Last March and 21 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: April you saw really it concentrated in the Northeast, and 22 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: it was more sporadic. Now you're seeing this across the 23 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 1: entire country, which is worrisome in terms of how stretched 24 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: we're going to be, particularly on issues like staffing. Recall 25 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: that when New York went through this crisis, we received 26 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,559 Speaker 1: help from around the country. Uh, staffing help from around 27 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 1: the country. That's not gonna be available for many of 28 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: the health systems now because we're seeing it across the 29 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 1: entire country. Testing and testing re agents are going to 30 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 1: be stretched as well. So I think that it's it's 31 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: it's somewhat different now. Having said that, the demography is 32 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: is more favorable. Younger people tend to do better than 33 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: older people. The mortality is less, the number of people 34 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: requiring ventilators throughout the country is less than when we 35 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 1: first saw it, and at the March and April time frame, uh, 36 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: and in the July August time frame in the in 37 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 1: the Southwest, So those are somewhat comforting. I do think 38 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,839 Speaker 1: that despite all the rhetoric around mask wearing and so 39 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: on the people paying attention to mask wearing. Social distancing 40 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 1: has helped. So I think we're in somewhat better shape, 41 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: but there are different challenges this go around. What kind 42 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: of surgery are you seeing in your hospital center? As 43 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: a practicmenter for hospitalizations, So at the at the Natier, 44 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 1: we were at about two percent of our peak UH. 45 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: Now we're at about ten to fifteen percent of our 46 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: peak UH, and we expected to go up to about 47 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 1: of the peak depending on exactly what happens over the 48 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving holiday and then of course Christmas time, so we 49 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 1: are preparing for it. We do have adequate ventilators, we 50 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 1: do have adequate masks, ppe, etcetera. We do worry about 51 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: the number of re agents that we will have for 52 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 1: adequate testing. But I feel that we're in better shape 53 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: than March and April, and we're hopeful that it will 54 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: be less strenuous than March and April for sure. And look, 55 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 1: we have the the likelihood of the vaccines UH not 56 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: only being approved but starting to be distributed at the 57 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: end of December and January and then hopefully ramping up 58 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: by the April May time frames. So you can see 59 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: the goal line in sight. If we can just get 60 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: through the next few months, well, okay, to follow that analogy, 61 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: you see the goal line. The question is how do 62 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 1: we not fumble the ball in the meantime because there's 63 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: some people who feel tired about wearing those masks you 64 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: set help and social distancing. How long do we have 65 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: to keep that up in your estimation before we really 66 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: have effective protection from the vaccine few months. I think 67 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: you're looking at the rest of November, December, January into 68 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: February hopefully, but in the February March time frame, you're 69 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: starting to see widespread availability of the vaccine. And David, 70 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 1: I can put a plug in. We must insist on 71 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: mass vaccination. The pain that we've gone through as a country, 72 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 1: the deaths that we've had, the effect on so many 73 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: different industries and businesses, We've got to insist on mass vaccination. 74 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,919 Speaker 1: We've got to make sure that we educate our population 75 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: about it. I tell you I would be the first 76 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: in line for either the visor of the moderna vaccine. 77 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: I think it's been a remarkable accomplishment, and with all 78 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: of the negatives about how the administration has handled this, 79 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 1: I think that Operation Warp Speed was a success. And 80 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 1: the private sector really stepped up here in a major way. 81 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 1: This is the shortest time to get a vaccine in 82 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: the in the history of vaccines, and it is really 83 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 1: a remarkable scientific accomplishment. So, dr the question now is 84 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 1: how the baton will be passed from the Trump administration 85 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: of what really everybody agrees is going to be the 86 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: Biden administration. What would you hope to see from a 87 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: Biden administration that might be from from what you've seen 88 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: from a Trump administration. Well, the first thing is, I 89 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: think this transition is critical. Uh. The initial distribution of 90 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: the vaccine is let's say, going to be, uh, twenty 91 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 1: million doses or thirty million doses. Uh, if you require 92 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 1: two doses for vaccine, you're only talking about fifteen million 93 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:21,480 Speaker 1: Americans getting it. So the coordination between the outgoing administration 94 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 1: and the Biden administration becomes critical so that everybody's on 95 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: the same page. How is it going to get distributed? 96 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: What is the I T system associated with this? What 97 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: are the state allocations? Do the states have plans that 98 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 1: makes sense? How do you prioritize this, how do you 99 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 1: make it equitable? That should be being discussed right now. Uh, 100 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: And I know that you spoke to the Congressman before. Yes, 101 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: the election needs to be certified, but we there is 102 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: a clear winner here, and at the very least there 103 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 1: should be widespread support for sharing of information and allowing 104 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 1: for an effective transition to happen. If it turns out 105 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 1: that the president actually one which no one thinks is likely, okay, 106 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: then there's no harm, no foul. But not doing this handoff, 107 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: I think is is really critical. As you said, you 108 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: don't want to fumble it when you're inside of the 109 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 1: goal line, and we need an effective passing at the baton. 110 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: That was Dr Stephen Corwin, President and CEO of New 111 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 1: York Presbyterian Hospital, coming up, What it takes to put 112 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: a White House together? From the woman who was President 113 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: Obama's senior advisor through his eight years there, Valerie Jared. 114 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 1: That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is 115 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:49,679 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. 116 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,359 Speaker 1: One of the biggest issues in Washington these days is 117 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 1: how we're going to get for a President Trump to 118 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: a President Biden. We have a president elect, but no 119 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: transition has begun, at least not as of now, which 120 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: means the income administration can't fully get up and running 121 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 1: despite pressing issues such as the pandemic. I have no budget. 122 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: I can't do any of this until I'm sworn in, 123 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: or I could convince the President now to do things 124 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: that should be being done already. I mean, there's hardly 125 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: been a meeting that's taken place in the White House 126 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: about any of this. We're welcome now someone who has 127 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: run a presidential transition team before. Valery Jared served for 128 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: eight years as senior advisor to President Obama. She was 129 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: co chair of the Obama Transition Team into this Nate, 130 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: all of which she wrote about in her book Finding 131 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: My Voice. When the perfect Plan crumbles, the adventure begins. 132 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: So M Jed, thank you so much for being back 133 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: with us. Really appreciated. As I say, you've actually run 134 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: one of these. You know what a gargent shuan task. 135 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 1: This is. How much more difficult is it because we've 136 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: been delayed at least sometime getting it started needlessly more Now? 137 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: I will say, obviously his team is the president lex 138 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: team has been assembled. They have been working diligently on 139 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: policies and generating staffing recommendations for the President elect. Both 140 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: in the White House, he's already named his chief of staff, 141 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: and also in the cabinet. They go through a vetting 142 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: process for that. But but in the midst of a pandemic, 143 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: with millions of Americans losing their jobs, it is more 144 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: important than ever that the agencies be available to the 145 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: transition team. And I always say that one of the 146 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: things that surprised me, but President of a Wellness Transition 147 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 1: was the unbelievable degree of cooperation we received from President Bush. 148 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 1: Now we may not have agreed with him on policies, 149 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: but what President Bush believed is in the smooth and 150 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 1: orderly transition of power. And when President Obabou was leaving office, 151 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 1: we did the exact same thing in his direction for 152 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: President Trump, because this isn't about politics. It's about keeping 153 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: our country safe, keeping him healthy. And if you think 154 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: about you know there's been a focus on the presidential 155 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,439 Speaker 1: daily briefing that the president elect is of getting. But 156 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: we have sixteen different intelligence agencies, and the team that 157 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 1: the President assembled should be in each of those agencies 158 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 1: right now finding out the information that won't make it 159 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 1: to the presidential grouping for another six months. But what 160 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: we'll need to be acted upon on day one, and 161 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: so we are at peril. It's totally irresponsible, it's putting 162 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: us at risk. And what there's no need for this. 163 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: The election has been called. And even if the president 164 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: wanted to pursue his lawsuits that there is nothing that 165 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,599 Speaker 1: prevents him from, by the same token, going down a 166 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: path for a transition. Well, well, sooner or later there 167 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: will be a transition. I think it's uncomfortable saying, and 168 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:41,719 Speaker 1: we're here from some Republicans, they're starting to move in 169 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: that direction that we're getting towards that time. Let's talk 170 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: about that transition. And you refer to the team around 171 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: the president. You helped President Obama really put together that team. 172 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: You help pick those people. When you're putting together a 173 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: team like that, what are you looking for? How do 174 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 1: you get a team together that here it really consistent 175 00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: with your views, but at the same time brings a 176 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 1: diversity of you points. Well, that's something that's very important 177 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: to the president of life. He's made that clear that 178 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 1: he wants a team that reflects the rich diversity of 179 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 1: our country because he believes he will make better decisions 180 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 1: if he's advised by people who don't just think like him. 181 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 1: They share his values, that's important, but they have different 182 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 1: life experiences and that began with the selection of his 183 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:26,599 Speaker 1: vices president. Obviously the vice president elect Harris qualified experienced 184 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 1: track record of leadership, but she has a different life experience, 185 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: and he wanted to make sure that the last person 186 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: who talks to him is somebody who he trust. But 187 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,599 Speaker 1: it doesn't always see the world the same way that 188 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 1: he does. I'm not sure, Vario, whether we've all fully 189 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: absorbed the significancy, historic significance of that vice presidential pick. 190 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: The first black vice president, the first Indian American vice president, 191 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 1: first woman, as a matter of fact. So so what 192 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: is that going to symbolize for the country, but also 193 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: what effect might Kamala Harris have within the White House. 194 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: I think she's gonna be a powerful voice, and that's 195 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,599 Speaker 1: what he said he wanted, which I think reflects not 196 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: only well on her, but also well on him. She's 197 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 1: shattering what very glass ceilings of all kinds. As you mentioned, David, 198 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: She's will be a role model for people all across 199 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: the country in the world about the way the new 200 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: look of leadership. But she also is going to help 201 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 1: him make really tough decisions and bring her life experiences 202 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: to bear on that. And that's what he says he wants, 203 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: not just as his vice president, but throughout the administration. Already, 204 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 1: the transition team is majority women, is near majority people 205 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: of color, and so he's off to a very good start. 206 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: And I think that you can tell a lot about 207 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: a person by who they surround themselves with. And since 208 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 1: I know so many of the folks on the team, well, 209 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: I am really impressed. I know that he will hit 210 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 1: the ground running. But to return again, David, it would 211 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: be so much easier if we have the full cooperation 212 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: of the Trump administration, where I say we I'm in 213 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 1: our country, because this is really about putting country first. 214 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: Every new president comes in with a very full inbox. 215 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say, but this president, in particular, 216 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: the President Biden, when he takes office, is going to 217 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 1: have the coronavirus. He's got economic issues. He has a 218 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 1: lot of issues domestically before he gets the international issues. 219 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 1: At the same time, there are pressing issues that you 220 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 1: really took some ownership of when you were in the 221 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: White House, things like racial justice, things like how we're 222 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,319 Speaker 1: dealing with working mothers who are particularly a hard hit 223 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 1: right now. For example, here in New York City, as 224 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 1: their kids are not in school, the working mothers have 225 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: a very difficult time. What can the White House? What 226 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: can the administration do without the cooperation of the Congress 227 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: in those areas well? Tom starts at the top, and 228 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: I think he's already signaled that his first priority is 229 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 1: to get his arms around this COVID nineteen pandemic. He's 230 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: already assembled a task force. It's hard work. We'll be 231 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:49,599 Speaker 1: making recommendations to him about steps to go forward to 232 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: not only to contain it, but once we have the vaccine, 233 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 1: to make sure that people actually get vaccinated in a 234 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: fair and equitable way. He has always been an advocate 235 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: for working family, and I think the pandemic has laid 236 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,559 Speaker 1: bare a challenges that have existed for a long time. 237 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: Pay people, pay paid leave, paid sick days. We know 238 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: that women are suffering disproportionately in this pandemic, and that's 239 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 1: why he said, well, we build America back, we have 240 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: to build it back better. So what are the levers 241 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: we can turn as we craft a recovery package? And look, 242 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: when he came in in two thousand and nine, President 243 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 1: Obama asked is then vice president to be responsible for 244 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: that eight hundred billion dollar Recovery Act and make sure 245 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 1: that the resources were going where they were needed most. 246 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: And so he is well prepared to do this again. 247 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: And in fact, his cheapest staff that he just selected 248 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: was the same person who was this cheapest staff at 249 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: that time. So he has got to He said, the 250 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: only way we're going to grow our economy is to 251 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,239 Speaker 1: get our arms around this pandemic. And I would say, 252 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: sitting here watching it spiral out of control with no 253 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 1: leadership coming from the White House day after day after day, 254 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: with reaching to them to the fifty pound and people dead. 255 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,599 Speaker 1: Just think of those Thanksgiving tables where they're going to 256 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: be so many empty seats in our country. And so 257 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,079 Speaker 1: again that's why this is a critical time as that 258 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 1: virus is spiking. So yes, yes, to get on his 259 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 1: arms around it. And to the point you've raised in 260 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: terms of the racial healing and criminal justice reform, that's 261 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 1: also priority for Here's a good news. One thing I 262 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: know about President Left finds he can multitask and his 263 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: policy shops will be working on all of the issues 264 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: that he articulated in his campaign. To be true to 265 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: his worth thanks to Valry Jared, former senior adviser to 266 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: President Barack Obama. Coming up, the view from the FED 267 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: on how the pandemic may be changing the very structure 268 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: of our economy over the long term from Dallas FED 269 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 1: President Robert Kaplan. That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 270 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 271 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, and regret to say that we're in the 272 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: worst economic mess since the Great Depression. Together, we must 273 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 1: chart a different course. We must increase productivity. That means 274 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: making it possible for industry to modernize and make use 275 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: of the technology which we ourselves invented. That means putting 276 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: Americans back to work, and that means, above all, bringing 277 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 1: government spending back within government revenues. That was President Reagan 278 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 1: talking about the economic crisis he faced back then. Now 279 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 1: we're facing a new crisis, a crisis born not of 280 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: runaway inflation and high oil prices, but of a pandemic 281 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 1: that may have farther reaching consequences on the way we work, 282 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: the way we learn, the way we live, all of 283 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: which are very much on the mind of Dallas FED 284 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 1: President Robert Kaplan. So so The irony is we think, UH, 285 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: over the horizon is going to be a very strong 286 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: year with GDP growth probably three and a percent or greater, 287 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: although a lot of that growth will be in the 288 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: back half of the year. That the challenges, as you mentioned, 289 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: is getting through the next six months, and we're seeing 290 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: resurgence intensify all through the country, and we're seeing mobility 291 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 1: and engagement UH fall off in those places where the 292 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: resurgence is affecting or threatening the health healthcare capacity, hospital capacity. 293 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: If that continues, which it looks like it is continuing, 294 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: you're going to see more and more cities UH fall 295 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 1: off El Paso as an example, Wisconsin, Chicago, Utah, Colorado. 296 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 1: We're all seeing that kind of mobility engagement fall off, 297 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: which indicates growth will slow and so UH we'll we'll 298 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: have to see what the fourth quarter looks like. We 299 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: it is possible we could have negative growth if this 300 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: resurgence gets bad enough and mobility falls off enough so 301 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 1: that local officials, even though don't they don't want to 302 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: do more restrictions, they don't have a choice. So the 303 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 1: next couple of quarters is going to be very challenging. 304 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 1: The good news is over the horizon, things will get better, 305 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 1: but we've got to get through the next six months, 306 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: and we've got to do more on masks, wearing, social distancing, 307 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: because a vaccine will help us eventually, but it's not 308 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: going to help us get through the next three months. 309 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: So negative growth and for a couple of months that 310 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: adds up to a recession is as I understand it. 311 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: So you're you're not ruling out that possibility. I'm not 312 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: ruling out If you had asked me a month ago, 313 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 1: I would have said we're going to grow in the 314 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: fourth quarter as much as four or five percent annualized. 315 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: But I think with this resurgence, um, I think the 316 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 1: risks are all the downside. The only good news if 317 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,199 Speaker 1: there is and if there is negative growth and the 318 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: rebound stalls, we our own view as it will be temporary, 319 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: it'll last for a quarter or two, but it's a 320 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: possibility at this point. Might that prompt fed action? Could you, 321 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: for example, increase your bond buying or is that just 322 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 1: not the right response to the problem we're looking at. 323 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 1: I don't I don't know if that's the right response. 324 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 1: I do think it's critical that the thirteen three programs, 325 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: these public market, backstock programs and programs like that support 326 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: Main Street and the PPP that they continue beyond your end. 327 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: I think that's very important. I would continue our bomb 328 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: buying at the same pace that we're buying if we 329 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,639 Speaker 1: needed to. If this got bad enough, we could extend maturities. 330 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 1: But I wouldn't increase the size. Uh, But I think 331 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: there are tools we have and we're gonna have to 332 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 1: watch this very very carefully. So you said maybe three 333 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: and a half percent GP growth in back end loaded 334 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,360 Speaker 1: or better or better, fair enough or better, but back 335 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 1: end loaded is that entirely contingent upon an effective vaccine 336 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: sometime in the middle of the year. Yes, it is, 337 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:49,159 Speaker 1: And so what we're assuming is our base case is 338 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: we'll we'll have a good vaccine or more than one 339 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 1: vaccine by the end of this year. But the first 340 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 1: order of business is going to be to immunize about 341 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 1: twenty million healthcare worker in the United States. That could 342 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: take up until say March or April, and then in 343 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:10,159 Speaker 1: March or April, our expectation is that you'll have broad 344 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: dissemination that will take a number of months to get 345 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 1: the population inoculated. So we're going to spend a good 346 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: part of socially distancing mask wearing. But the back half 347 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: of the year is going to be better and better 348 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 1: times will be ahead again, but we've got to get through. 349 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: We've got to get through a very difficult period first, 350 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: and that's where our focus is right now. And then 351 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 1: the news of these two or three promising vaccine candidates 352 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: really encouraged I think all of us to believe what 353 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: you just said, that we will get through it, although 354 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard between here and there. When we 355 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: get through it, what will be the long term changes 356 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 1: do you think to the very structure of our economy 357 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: from the pandemic or will they go away? So we're 358 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 1: gonna have a number of issues that we're gonna we're 359 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,959 Speaker 1: gonna have to deal with. The number one, technology and 360 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:03,359 Speaker 1: technology and inable disruption was a fact of life pre pandemic, 361 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 1: and the pandemic has accelerated it. People are now even 362 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 1: more comfortable shopping remotely, working remotely, and just conducting their 363 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 1: lives differently. Some of that will swing back, but I 364 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 1: think some of it will not. You could see in 365 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,959 Speaker 1: the future less business travel, You'll see reconfigured office space, 366 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: maybe less office space for some companies. That was Dallas 367 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,960 Speaker 1: FED President Robert Kaplan. Coming up, we wrap up the 368 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: week with our special contributor Larry Summers. This is Wall 369 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 1: Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week 370 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,199 Speaker 1: with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. We're gonna wrap up 371 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: the week. We welcome now our special contributor Larry Summers 372 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 1: of Harvard. So, Larry, great to have you here, particularly 373 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: because at the very end of the week we had 374 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: a fair amount of secretaria treasury action there. One of 375 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 1: your successors took some action. Secretary Manuchin wrote a letter 376 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: to the head of the Fed, J. Pow, saying, please 377 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: give us back that money we gave you for those 378 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: emergency lending facilities. And you had something to say about that. 379 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 1: In fact, you had a tweet in which you said 380 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 1: Secretary Paulson talk, referring to Hank Paulson. Another predecessor understood 381 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,119 Speaker 1: in a transition it was his job to help the 382 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 1: FED and the incoming administration established a basis for strong 383 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: cooperative efforts to contain the crisis. Secretary Manuchin has done 384 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: just the opposite. So drawing a contrast between these two secretaries, 385 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: what is going on here? Larry and two Shepherd points one, Uh, 386 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,919 Speaker 1: every previous government. I mean, there was plenty of bitterness 387 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 1: in the Bush Gore campaign, really there was. I mean, 388 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:52,360 Speaker 1: we all thought that election was stolen. But it didn't 389 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,680 Speaker 1: occur to me, or to anyone who worked with me, 390 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: or to any other cabinet officer in the Clinton administration 391 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 1: not to cooperate fully in helping the government be ready 392 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 1: to do whatever our successors wanted to do. The last 393 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: thing we envisioned doing was thwarting their ability to carry 394 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:20,160 Speaker 1: out their policies. What Steven nuchen uh did in writing 395 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 1: uh that letter and making those demands and reducing the 396 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: authorization was thwart what it's clear and incoming Biden administration 397 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 1: wants to do. So that's just wrong on process terms. 398 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 1: The second problem is it's just incredibly imprudent and reckless 399 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: at a time when the pandemic is getting far worse, 400 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,120 Speaker 1: at a time when we don't really know where this 401 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 1: pandemic is going to go before a vaccine, at a 402 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,959 Speaker 1: time when we don't have any basis for being confident 403 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 1: that there's gonna be agreement on fiscal stimulus, to tie 404 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 1: the fence hands in any way, to constrict their abilities 405 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:15,640 Speaker 1: to act in an emergency is the height of foolishness. 406 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 1: Why would you throw away a potential insurance policy. Nobody's 407 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 1: asking Secretary Manuchin to trigger anything, to pay any money, 408 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,359 Speaker 1: to authorize any checks that he doesn't want to, but 409 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 1: preserving the capacity to ensure against financial arm. Again, it's 410 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: elementary that that's the right thing to do. It's elementary 411 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: that it's the right thing to do to facilitate the 412 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: next administration being able to do what it thinks. Uh 413 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: is uh is wise. Uh. I've been surprised by the 414 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 1: secretary before war, but never more than this, which really 415 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 1: does seem to me very much outside the tradition of 416 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 1: the office he holds. So this is a transition that 417 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: at some point presumably will be over. And then the 418 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: same time, there are longer term issues at play here. 419 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: And just this week Bloomberg had the New Economy form 420 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,440 Speaker 1: that you appeared on with Janny yell in the former 421 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,159 Speaker 1: Photo Reserve chair, and one of the subjects was actually, 422 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 1: are we saving too much? And are we really in 423 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 1: secular stagnations a term that you really revived some years ago, 424 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 1: and she basically totally agree with you. This is part 425 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 1: of what she had to say. Central banks need to 426 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:39,679 Speaker 1: do what they can, but then not overstate, um what 427 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: it's possible for them to do well. I strongly believe 428 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: central banks need to be independent and need to do 429 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 1: everything they can. The changes they've made, they're not a 430 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: game changer from the point of view of secular stagnation, 431 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,439 Speaker 1: and bottom line, I agree with Larry on what's what's required. 432 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: So they you go, Larry, things have changed something the 433 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 1: first time. I think that you issue that paper some 434 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 1: years ago, when you're sort of an outlier I think 435 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,880 Speaker 1: on the subject. But that leads to the question, Okay, 436 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 1: if central banks can't fix this and we're in secular stagnation, 437 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: what do we do about? What does it mean for 438 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: longer term economic policy? It means we're gonna have to 439 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: rely on fiscal policy rather than monetary policy UH to 440 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: stabilize the economy going forward when we have cyclical fluctuations, 441 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,639 Speaker 1: And it means more generally that an important part of 442 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: the design of policy is going to have to be 443 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: assuring that savings are fully absorbed, because when you have 444 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:46,360 Speaker 1: excess savings and there isn't investment that absorbs that saving, 445 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: that's when you get interest rates on the floor. That's 446 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 1: when you get the savings flowing into purchasing existing assets, 447 00:25:56,040 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: leading to financial bubbles and leading to huge degree of leverage. 448 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: That's when you get lack of lack of inflationary impulse 449 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:15,320 Speaker 1: and an inadequate uh inflation relative to the targets. And 450 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: that's when you get the sluggish growth that leads millions 451 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: of workers to be left behind. This isn't a phenomenon 452 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: of the United States. It's a phenomenon throughout the industrial world. 453 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:33,159 Speaker 1: Nowhere are interest rates at anything like the levels that 454 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: would have been regarded as normal. And nowhere is there 455 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: any market judgment if you look at longer term interest rates, 456 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 1: that they're going back to normal. And so we've got 457 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 1: to move to a very different paradigm. That is not 458 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 1: that an undisciplined central bank is going to create of inflation. 459 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,960 Speaker 1: It is not a deficit. Are gonna crowd out prompted 460 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 1: investment and to have all the savings and get ex 461 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 1: orbit and that is what central banks need to be saying. 462 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 1: That's what political leaders need to be understanding. Kins talked 463 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: about this time ago, both in substance and have to 464 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,640 Speaker 1: understand the basic economic forces to do the right thing, 465 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 1: which leads us naturally to a quick lightning round of Summer. Says, 466 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,119 Speaker 1: because one of the questions is the stimulus. Are we 467 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: going to get stimulus? On? How big does it need 468 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,640 Speaker 1: to be? It should be more than a trillion dollars, 469 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 1: and it's odds off that will get it before the 470 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: inauguration unfortunate, unfortunately because of transigence on both sides, So 471 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 1: odds off that we're gonna get it should be more 472 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 1: than a trillion dollars. Let me flip take the flip 473 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 1: side of this argument for a second, which might surprise you. 474 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,360 Speaker 1: We've had some people like Martin Wolf from the Financial 475 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 1: Times this week writing about the possible recurrence of inflation. Actually, 476 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 1: if we get the vaccine and things bounce back, is 477 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:01,919 Speaker 1: there any chance that, in fact, we could have the 478 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 1: reverse of your problem and actually have inflation by the 479 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:09,440 Speaker 1: end of course, by the end of one I think 480 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:14,679 Speaker 1: it's pretty unlikely, but anything's uh possible. But you know, 481 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 1: mathematicians have a phrase this reduces to the previous case. 482 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:24,399 Speaker 1: If we found ourselves with an overheating economy and we 483 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 1: had to raise the interest strates and the FED was 484 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 1: important again, and it was no longer pushing on a string. 485 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 1: That would be really good. That would be a much 486 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 1: better situation than the kind of profound, long term sluggishness 487 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 1: that has led to such disillusionment um around uh the world. 488 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: One of the things that Martin Wolf was talking about 489 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 1: actually is whether demographics might push us in that direction, 490 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 1: because in fact we have a diminishing labor force in 491 00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,719 Speaker 1: places like China as well as the United States in Europe, 492 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 1: and might actually increase the pressure on wages, which goodness 493 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 1: knows could be good. It could help address some of 494 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 1: that inequality problem that we certainly facing in the United States, 495 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: and that president like Biden, has committed himself to trying 496 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,960 Speaker 1: to address. Great to have special contributor Larry Summers with 497 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 1: us as always. Finally, one more thought, one man's stimulus 498 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 1: package for booksellers. Like all retailers, booksellers have not had 499 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: an easy time of it since the pandemic hit last spring. 500 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 1: But this week saw what could be a turnaround with 501 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: the publication of President Obama's memoir A Promised Land, a 502 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 1: seven hundred sixty eight page tome that is making a 503 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 1: splash like few other books have ever made. With an 504 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: initial printing of three point four million copies from North 505 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,600 Speaker 1: America alone, and nearly nine hundred thousand copies sold in 506 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 1: the first twenty four hours. It may not be the 507 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 1: first of its kind, We've come to expect these from 508 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 1: our former presidents, but it may well be the most 509 00:29:56,120 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 1: popular presidential memoir of all time, which can't come sooner off, 510 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: particularly for the independent bookstores around the country, which the 511 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 1: publisher says are reporting particularly strong sales. As much demand 512 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,960 Speaker 1: as there is for President Obama's memoir, it still has 513 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 1: stiff competition in the eyes of critics, competition from the 514 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,640 Speaker 1: unlikely source of our eighteenth President, Ulysses S. Grant, who 515 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 1: wrote what most historians degree is the gold standard for 516 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 1: presidential autobiographies. Like President Obamas, President Grant's autobiography was immensely popular, 517 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 1: helped no doubt by his publisher, Mark Twain's marketing genius 518 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 1: in employing Civil War veterans to dress up in their 519 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 1: uniforms and go door to door to sell it. Like 520 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 1: President Obama, President Grant wrote his book out longhand fighting 521 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,000 Speaker 1: through his terminal cancer to finish it just before he died, 522 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 1: and like President Obama's book, President Grants was a huge 523 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 1: commercial success, earning the equivalent in today's dollars of thirteen million. 524 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 1: And we can only hope the President Obama's autoiography bears 525 00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 1: one other similarity to that of President Grant. For Ulysses S. 526 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 1: Grants two volume memoir was published in eighty five, during 527 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 1: the third longest economic downturn in US history, But it 528 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 1: was a recession that ended when the memoir was published. 529 00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 1: Even as we cross our fingers that our current economic 530 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 1: recovery can continue despite all that we face. That does it. 531 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 1: For this episode of Wall Street Week, I'm David Weston. 532 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. See you next week.