1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,719
Speaker 1: I'm here with JP Morgan, CEO and chair of Jamie

2
00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:05,920
Speaker 1: Diamond in London on the sidelines of the Tech Stars

3
00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:06,680
Speaker 1: Leadership Forum.

4
00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:08,640
Speaker 2: Jamie, thank you so much for joining us today.

5
00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:09,480
Speaker 3: Thrilled to be here.

6
00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:13,360
Speaker 1: So we just saw a few tech companies go public, Instacart,

7
00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:15,000
Speaker 1: Arm clavy O.

8
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,360
Speaker 2: What's happening in the markets? Are we back or is

9
00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:18,960
Speaker 2: this a blimp?

10
00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,479
Speaker 4: I think it's open for now for different types of companies.

11
00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:25,200
Speaker 4: But you see IPO markets like an accordion. I think

12
00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,479
Speaker 4: there were like four hundred plus deals in twenty one

13
00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,200
Speaker 4: and forty and twenty two, and I think something like

14
00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,680
Speaker 4: fifty or sixty this year. Obviously, interest rates change a lot.

15
00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:35,640
Speaker 4: What help you evalue it whether it we go public?

16
00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,000
Speaker 4: The value of cash flows or earnings and cash council

17
00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,800
Speaker 4: bit more than accounta before. But for now it's open.

18
00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,559
Speaker 4: Markets are healthy, you know, the commune is still okay.

19
00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,680
Speaker 4: So it's open. Maybe not for everybody, but it's open.

20
00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 1: Given we're in London, you don't see the same wealth

21
00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,920
Speaker 1: of tech companies that you see in Silicon Valley. They

22
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,640
Speaker 1: want more big star tech companies here. Why haven't we

23
00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:56,160
Speaker 1: seen that?

24
00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:57,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's the i'd look at their way

25
00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,400
Speaker 4: around US was the center of tech, you know, not

26
00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:02,360
Speaker 4: just Silicon Valley.

27
00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:03,600
Speaker 3: It's all over America.

28
00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:07,240
Speaker 4: I recently came from you know, Boise and other places.

29
00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,440
Speaker 4: It's staggering. But so the dasper has actually moved overseas.

30
00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,040
Speaker 4: You have some I was recent in Berlin and Paris.

31
00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,399
Speaker 4: There are tech star ups everywhere now they're quite good.

32
00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:17,720
Speaker 4: They're more of a going public and we're the leader

33
00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:19,640
Speaker 4: of taking them public here. So I think it's a

34
00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,200
Speaker 4: great thing. And obviously you always had it in China,

35
00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,279
Speaker 4: a little bit India. Still it's not in the Europe.

36
00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:27,080
Speaker 4: It's not quite the United States. But the fact that

37
00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:28,240
Speaker 4: this here is a very good thing.

38
00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,959
Speaker 1: JP Morgan's tech footprint has gotten even bigger now that

39
00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:33,720
Speaker 1: we've seen clients flood out of SVB.

40
00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:35,119
Speaker 2: You bought First Republic.

41
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,800
Speaker 1: How big is the opportunity to be the new incumbent

42
00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,840
Speaker 1: bank for startups and vcs And how will you, Jamie Diamond,

43
00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:44,200
Speaker 1: manage the risk differently?

44
00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think first of all, we didn't want to

45
00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,280
Speaker 4: benefit in the world by that kind of thing happening,

46
00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:50,160
Speaker 4: So it wasn't good for banks or good for us.

47
00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:52,160
Speaker 3: Having said that, when that happened, you know.

48
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,040
Speaker 4: We had people working around the clock literally to open

49
00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:57,680
Speaker 4: those accounts. I recently came from a Sequoia thing. I know,

50
00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,400
Speaker 4: a lot of the benure capitalists, you know, Saturday, Sundays

51
00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,000
Speaker 4: through the nights, you know, to onboard these accounts and

52
00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,280
Speaker 4: help them through it. And you know, one of the

53
00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 4: great and we always were there. We always did Okay,

54
00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:09,280
Speaker 4: I always want.

55
00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,000
Speaker 3: To do better. We're going to We're adding people.

56
00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:14,600
Speaker 4: I think the biggest different Silicon Valley Bank before I

57
00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,079
Speaker 4: get the first Republic is they did a great job

58
00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,120
Speaker 4: at some of the stuff. So obviously there's certain things

59
00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,440
Speaker 4: they did on a macro level which weren't right. They

60
00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:23,359
Speaker 4: did a lot of things at the micro level that right.

61
00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:25,840
Speaker 4: How they dealt with the client, how they service them.

62
00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:29,240
Speaker 4: They serve them locally. So we have unbelievable products and

63
00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:34,560
Speaker 4: service to bring them digital, consumer subscription lines, financing, globality research,

64
00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:36,760
Speaker 4: you name it. But we have to deliver to them

65
00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:38,880
Speaker 4: in a way they actually like it and they want it,

66
00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,600
Speaker 4: which is what Silicon Valley Bank did. So we're organizing

67
00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,600
Speaker 4: around it. If you speak to a bunch of people here,

68
00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,360
Speaker 4: you can hear them talk about, you know, we're adding

69
00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:46,760
Speaker 4: We just took out a whole bunch of new space

70
00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,000
Speaker 4: in pow Out. Though we hired John Cheena is one

71
00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,440
Speaker 4: of the top people out of Silicon Valley Bank. We

72
00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,960
Speaker 4: organized around the innovation economy. We'll get it right. I

73
00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:56,840
Speaker 4: just want to make sure they're happy with us a

74
00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:58,680
Speaker 4: year from now, not just just today.

75
00:02:58,800 --> 00:02:59,760
Speaker 3: Oh, I remember already.

76
00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,160
Speaker 4: That's what we do all day long. It's not it's

77
00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,079
Speaker 4: for us. It's incremental risk. It's a slightly different kind

78
00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,360
Speaker 4: of risk. So, you know, and this happened years ago.

79
00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,320
Speaker 4: Would to bank lend to a non revenue company? Well

80
00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,680
Speaker 4: the answer, you know, twenty years ago was zero. But

81
00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,360
Speaker 4: we did Facebook. So we've learned how you can do

82
00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,520
Speaker 4: that when you do that. But again, the risk is

83
00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,680
Speaker 4: it's not a risk. It's the venture capital company, it's

84
00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,360
Speaker 4: the venture capital partners.

85
00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:27,000
Speaker 3: It's then they are.

86
00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:32,000
Speaker 4: Investee companies, it's the investing companies, managements, it's that whole ecosystem.

87
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:33,639
Speaker 3: And so we're just organizing around it.

88
00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,920
Speaker 1: You've got a top notch group investigating AI.

89
00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:37,400
Speaker 2: What are they up to.

90
00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,080
Speaker 1: What's the next level of finance you think AI can unlock?

91
00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think the most important thing is that

92
00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,920
Speaker 4: it's AI is real We already have thousands of people

93
00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 4: doing it top sciences around their own. Manu level Velosa,

94
00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,680
Speaker 4: who ran Carnegie mellon machine learning. It's a living breathing thing.

95
00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:55,720
Speaker 4: So people want to answer, what's going to do. It's

96
00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,000
Speaker 4: a living breathing thing. It's going to change. They're gonna

97
00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,120
Speaker 4: be all different types of models and different types of

98
00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:01,240
Speaker 4: tools and technology.

99
00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:03,240
Speaker 3: But the way to think about for us.

100
00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:07,800
Speaker 4: Is every single process, so errors, trading, hedging, research, every

101
00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,760
Speaker 4: app every database, you can be applying AI. So it

102
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,800
Speaker 4: might be as a copilot, it might be to replace humans.

103
00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:15,960
Speaker 4: You know, AI is doing all the equity hedging for us.

104
00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,960
Speaker 4: For the most part, it's idea generation, it's large language models,

105
00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,039
Speaker 4: it's no taking while you're talking to someone and while

106
00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:24,719
Speaker 4: it's taking notes and may actually say to you that,

107
00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:26,760
Speaker 4: you know, here's the thing of interest to climb my Peterson,

108
00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,839
Speaker 4: all error, all customer service, it's a little bit of everything.

109
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:31,800
Speaker 2: But it is going to replace some jobs, of course.

110
00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,599
Speaker 4: Yeah, but I look, folks, people have to take a

111
00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:39,200
Speaker 4: deep breath. Okay, Technologies always replace jobs. Your children live

112
00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,000
Speaker 4: to one hundred and not have cancer because of technology,

113
00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,040
Speaker 4: and literally they'll probably be working three and a half

114
00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,600
Speaker 4: days a week. So technology has done unbelievable things for mankind.

115
00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,400
Speaker 4: But you know, plans crash, pharmaceuies get misused. There are negatives.

116
00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,440
Speaker 4: This is one of the biggest negative of my view,

117
00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,679
Speaker 4: is AI being used by bad people to do bad things.

118
00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:00,960
Speaker 4: Think of cyber You know, Henry Kistener talks about warfare,

119
00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,760
Speaker 4: but you know the fact and I do think you know,

120
00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,359
Speaker 4: eventually have legal guardrails around. It's kind of hard to

121
00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,799
Speaker 4: do because it's new, but it will add a huge value.

122
00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:11,800
Speaker 3: And you know, for JP Morgan, if it.

123
00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:14,840
Speaker 4: Replaces jobs, and we hope to redeploy people like at

124
00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,960
Speaker 4: First Republic. You know, we've offered jobs to like ninety

125
00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,560
Speaker 4: percent of the people they accepted, but we also you know,

126
00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,800
Speaker 4: we've told them as we some of those jobs are transitory,

127
00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,479
Speaker 4: but we hire thirty thousand people a year, so we

128
00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,640
Speaker 4: expect to be able to get them a job somewhere

129
00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:32,200
Speaker 4: local and a different branch or a different function if

130
00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,000
Speaker 4: we can do that, and we'll be doing that with

131
00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,279
Speaker 4: any dislocation that takes place as a result AI.

132
00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:40,240
Speaker 1: I want the Jamie Damon forecast on the broader economy.

133
00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:42,719
Speaker 1: First it was hurricanes, and then it was storm clouds

134
00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:43,560
Speaker 1: in your annual letter.

135
00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:44,520
Speaker 2: What's the weather now?

136
00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,159
Speaker 4: You guys have consistently got this wrong. Okay, I'm not

137
00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:52,679
Speaker 4: giving a forecast. I'm trying to I blame myself.

138
00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:54,719
Speaker 3: Okay. The US has.

139
00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,920
Speaker 4: Been very strong for a while, no surprise, five trillion

140
00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,960
Speaker 4: dollars was pump pumped in fiscally, you know, three trillion

141
00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,760
Speaker 4: or four trillion of QE, and now that's being reversed.

142
00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,279
Speaker 4: The consumer is still in good shape. They're still spending money.

143
00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,160
Speaker 4: There's still have more money than pre COVID. It's spending down.

144
00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,120
Speaker 4: Home prize is gone for fifteen years, ASCID prize are

145
00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,719
Speaker 4: gone for fifteen years. They're in pretty good shape. And

146
00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:18,000
Speaker 4: then the people are talking about deterioration. Credit is not

147
00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,799
Speaker 4: to Terra and credit card all time highs, not inflation

148
00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:25,400
Speaker 4: adjusted or GDP adjusted or income adjusted, And yeah, it's deterrrians.

149
00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,960
Speaker 4: We think there's normalizing and the corporate credit has been

150
00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:28,360
Speaker 4: quite good.

151
00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:29,599
Speaker 3: So you have a strong economy.

152
00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,000
Speaker 4: That's the here and now, and all the data is

153
00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,120
Speaker 4: a little distorted because of COVID and things like that.

154
00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,120
Speaker 4: When you ask the question about a forecast, and I

155
00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,840
Speaker 4: don't make forecasts, I look out there and say, what

156
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:41,880
Speaker 4: are the range of outcomes.

157
00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:43,000
Speaker 2: From hurricane to storm clouds?

158
00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,800
Speaker 4: No, I put as several storm clouds. I said, when

159
00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,680
Speaker 4: I said hurricane, I was correcting. Someone said the storm

160
00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,360
Speaker 4: clouds dissipate. I said, no, that one may be a hurricane.

161
00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,920
Speaker 4: We don't know what it is. Here's what they are.

162
00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:58,000
Speaker 4: They're two of them that are different than other things.

163
00:06:58,080 --> 00:06:59,880
Speaker 4: So we always have you know, I don't worry about

164
00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:01,600
Speaker 4: the weather, and I honestly I spend a lot of

165
00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,720
Speaker 4: time guessing about the economy, and that to me is

166
00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,520
Speaker 4: the sunnier rainier. I don't worry about that. We run

167
00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:10,640
Speaker 4: the company to serve clients through thick and thin. That's

168
00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,280
Speaker 4: what we do, to serve governments, to satisfy our regulators,

169
00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,080
Speaker 4: and that that's all weather. But there are two things

170
00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:20,000
Speaker 4: which are extraordinary today which may have different outcomes. And

171
00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:22,480
Speaker 4: think of them as storm clouds. We don't know if

172
00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:26,400
Speaker 4: they're gonna hit, when they're gonna hit, what they're gonna do, Okay,

173
00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:26,880
Speaker 4: So I'm.

174
00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,280
Speaker 3: Not predicting that. I'll tell you what I worry about.

175
00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,720
Speaker 4: So one is the fiscal money being spent is so big,

176
00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,600
Speaker 4: largest in UH peacetime ever in America. And kind of

177
00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,840
Speaker 4: around the world with already very high deficits and QT

178
00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,680
Speaker 4: we've never had, so I know some people think QT

179
00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:44,160
Speaker 4: will be uneventful.

180
00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:45,520
Speaker 3: I'm not so sure.

181
00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:49,400
Speaker 4: At a minimum, I expect volatile markets, and then you've

182
00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,280
Speaker 4: got and then all the long term fiscal things are

183
00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,960
Speaker 4: kind of inflationary. You know, oil prices, certain commodity prices,

184
00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,520
Speaker 4: the green economy, you know, the restruction of trade, you

185
00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,920
Speaker 4: name it. I see it's ed interflation, not subtracting inflation.

186
00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 4: So I don't think inflationary will be that, you know,

187
00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,400
Speaker 4: keep on coming down. It may not, and therefore rates

188
00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,679
Speaker 4: may go higher. But the biggest dorm claus geopolitical, it's Ukraine,

189
00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,520
Speaker 4: the humanitarian crisis. You know, it's a war not far

190
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,800
Speaker 4: from here. It's along six hundred miles, five hundred thousand

191
00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,560
Speaker 4: people killed. It's nuclear blackmail. It's going to affect old

192
00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:24,680
Speaker 4: global relationships in America and China, trade alliances. We don't

193
00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:26,200
Speaker 4: know how it's going to start either. So I just

194
00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,760
Speaker 4: put those two things. Is I keep a close eye

195
00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,280
Speaker 4: on and then how it affects the economy is different.

196
00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,560
Speaker 3: And what I've been talking about that is I just

197
00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,000
Speaker 3: tell you be prepared for higher rates.

198
00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,160
Speaker 2: And slower Are we really going there?

199
00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:39,040
Speaker 3: And I don't know.

200
00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,319
Speaker 4: When I said five percent, they said, are we going there? Yes,

201
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,600
Speaker 4: it's possible, you know, so I when I talk to

202
00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:45,600
Speaker 4: my board, I say, yeah it can it.

203
00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:46,439
Speaker 3: Go to seven percent?

204
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,200
Speaker 4: The answers yes, are the factors that would drive it,

205
00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,640
Speaker 4: you know, higher than you know where it is today?

206
00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,240
Speaker 4: You know four and a four six or four seventnsombout

207
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,880
Speaker 4: ten year bond. Now, yes, is supply and demand could

208
00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 4: push I yes, I'm just be prepared for it. And

209
00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,360
Speaker 4: then the worst case is stackflation. You know, higher rates

210
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:07,920
Speaker 4: because you have a booming economy and there's a lot

211
00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,959
Speaker 4: of competition for capital is not the same thing as stagflation.

212
00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,880
Speaker 1: What are what are the ripple effects of the stress

213
00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,080
Speaker 1: of that seven percent rates on business?

214
00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:17,240
Speaker 2: On your growth?

215
00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,520
Speaker 4: Well, I'm not worried about japing Morgan shaping world. You know,

216
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,679
Speaker 4: we are prepared. We can handle seven percent. We can

217
00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:27,040
Speaker 4: handle two percent again, Yeah, we can handle that too.

218
00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 4: I mean that's I mean, so that's that risk management

219
00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:31,720
Speaker 4: is not the same thing as guests in the future.

220
00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,640
Speaker 4: When risk manager look at the range of potential outcomes

221
00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:36,400
Speaker 4: and being able to say yourself, we can handle this.

222
00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:37,160
Speaker 3: We can have this.

223
00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,440
Speaker 4: Weever, we expect it and we can handle it in between.

224
00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:40,920
Speaker 4: You know, if you bet your company and you know

225
00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,559
Speaker 4: one outcome, So I think all companies do that, you know,

226
00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,640
Speaker 4: and every company's got different exposures, you know, input prices

227
00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,080
Speaker 4: and output prices. You know, some interust rates don't matter.

228
00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:50,680
Speaker 4: It's some it's the price of mozzarella.

229
00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:52,559
Speaker 3: So you know what, it's your business.

230
00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,040
Speaker 4: Your business is different, sou But I think we don't

231
00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:57,920
Speaker 4: know the effects of these things in the economy. So

232
00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,440
Speaker 4: they may we may have a soft land, we may

233
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,480
Speaker 4: have a mild recession, may have a harder recession.

234
00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:03,000
Speaker 2: You know.

235
00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:06,040
Speaker 4: Obviously there are potential bid outcomes. You know, the worst

236
00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:10,040
Speaker 4: one would be economically is taflation, where you have low growth,

237
00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,280
Speaker 4: high interest rates, and obviously if that happens, you're gonna see,

238
00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:14,640
Speaker 4: you know, a lot of people struggling.

239
00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,280
Speaker 2: Where's China on the list of risks?

240
00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,720
Speaker 4: When I say geopolitical, that's the big one. It's it's

241
00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:24,960
Speaker 4: the it's the thread from Ukraine, oil and gas, food, migration,

242
00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:29,000
Speaker 4: all our relationships, the most important one being China. That

243
00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,120
Speaker 4: is the most important for the future of the world,

244
00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,480
Speaker 4: and obviously Ukraine is affecting it. And in fact, it's

245
00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,720
Speaker 4: very hard to see really positive outcomes with China until

246
00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 4: the Ukraine War is resolved, hopefully, whether Ukraine is cold,

247
00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:43,480
Speaker 4: say they have a victory of some sort.

248
00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:45,840
Speaker 2: You said you're worried about another Trump presidency.

249
00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:50,000
Speaker 4: How worried, I don't know if I've said that. I'm

250
00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:55,319
Speaker 4: hoping the American public. Look, we need good American leadership,

251
00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,040
Speaker 4: and I think that we need to explain to people

252
00:10:58,040 --> 00:10:59,920
Speaker 4: why it's so important for the world, you know.

253
00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:00,920
Speaker 3: And so there's a little bit of this.

254
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,680
Speaker 4: You know, America first, and no American president is going

255
00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:08,040
Speaker 4: to say America second. But we need to explain is

256
00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:12,000
Speaker 4: why Ukraine is important to us, and why American security

257
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,400
Speaker 4: relies on global security, and why are allies rely on

258
00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,920
Speaker 4: that And if they can't rely on America, they will

259
00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:21,280
Speaker 4: have to rely on someone else. And so I just

260
00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,160
Speaker 4: think it's very important, you know. Bob Gates writes in

261
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,200
Speaker 4: his book The Exercise of Power about the symphony of

262
00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:29,360
Speaker 4: power and all the soft things, not the military, which

263
00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:36,880
Speaker 4: we've overused, but diplomacy, development, finance, education, communication, and obviously

264
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,680
Speaker 4: economic trade, investment, all those things.

265
00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,079
Speaker 3: And I think we needed a better job in that we.

266
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,280
Speaker 1: Just avoided another US government shutdown. Now there's talks of

267
00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:46,400
Speaker 1: a McCarthy auster.

268
00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,000
Speaker 2: Do you have a message for anyone in Congress.

269
00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:53,839
Speaker 4: Look, we need good policy makers. You know, shutdown is

270
00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:59,080
Speaker 4: a bad idea. I'm gratefully came up with solution. Democracies

271
00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,800
Speaker 4: by their names, you mean compromise. That's what a democracy is.

272
00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:04,360
Speaker 4: So I and there are a lot when I go

273
00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,280
Speaker 4: to Washington, you know, you see on the press all

274
00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,199
Speaker 4: the time the bad parts. They're also some great Congress folks,

275
00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,440
Speaker 4: great senators who want to get things done in the

276
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,120
Speaker 4: interest the United States. And I'm glad they did this

277
00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,600
Speaker 4: particular one, of course, you know forty five days from now.

278
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,079
Speaker 4: And you know, Kevin McCarthy's the Speaker of the House

279
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,120
Speaker 4: and I wish him the best. I've known it for

280
00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:27,319
Speaker 4: many years. And he's got a tough hand. He's he's

281
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,120
Speaker 4: got a tough hand, but he's doing okay so far.

282
00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,280
Speaker 1: Regulators have proposed new capital rules that banks have said

283
00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,520
Speaker 1: will make it tougher for Americans to get a mortgage.

284
00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,959
Speaker 1: But I'm curious when you look across the firm, what

285
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:38,920
Speaker 1: businesses are going to have the biggest impact.

286
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:40,760
Speaker 2: Break it down?

287
00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,200
Speaker 4: First of all, it's one hundred thousand pages long, so

288
00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,680
Speaker 4: you have to go buy product, buy service by country,

289
00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:51,120
Speaker 4: by cross border, by type. And then there's operational risk thing.

290
00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:53,640
Speaker 4: So you know, we're you know, I don't think it's

291
00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:54,360
Speaker 4: all the right stuff.

292
00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:54,600
Speaker 3: I don't.

293
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,960
Speaker 4: I don't think it's very comprehensive or well thought through.

294
00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,719
Speaker 4: But let them do what they want at this point

295
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,120
Speaker 4: international so you may not know if you're an American,

296
00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,720
Speaker 4: we have, though thirty percent more capital than European banks

297
00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,800
Speaker 4: the way it's currently constructed, what happened to the international requirements,

298
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,319
Speaker 4: like when we spar like international level playing fields and

299
00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,040
Speaker 4: all this stuff like that. When you get into the specifics,

300
00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,640
Speaker 4: it really matters how the ultimate rules about mortgages and

301
00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,680
Speaker 4: small business loans, et cetera. In general, you know, it

302
00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,480
Speaker 4: makes like I don't like about it. For example, it

303
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:28,600
Speaker 4: punishes diversification, operating risk capital and gcify and diversification is

304
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,560
Speaker 4: one of the true free lunches for a bank that

305
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,280
Speaker 4: protects it, and I don't understand why they do that,

306
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,640
Speaker 4: and I just you know, we're going to be responding.

307
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:42,160
Speaker 4: Hopefully it'll be modified and thoughtfully done for international purposes.

308
00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,880
Speaker 4: And mostly you know, America's got the best financial system

309
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,679
Speaker 4: rules ever seen, and you know that includes head funds

310
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 4: and private equity and private capital all things like that.

311
00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,600
Speaker 4: But this is you know, I said that private equity

312
00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:54,520
Speaker 4: headfunds are dancing in the streets and this time they're

313
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,880
Speaker 4: being quite public about it because this is going to

314
00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:58,360
Speaker 4: push a lot of stuff out of the banking system.

315
00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,120
Speaker 3: And if that's what the regulars.

316
00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:03,200
Speaker 4: Want so be, it is that good for America?

317
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:03,720
Speaker 3: I don't know.

318
00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,240
Speaker 4: We've gone from seventy three hundred public companies in nineteen

319
00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,080
Speaker 4: ninety six to forty five hundred today. Is that what

320
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:13,000
Speaker 4: we wanted? It should have been fourteen thousand. Did you

321
00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:15,280
Speaker 4: want a lot of credit to move private? You know,

322
00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,240
Speaker 4: maybe they did, you know, then they accomplished their goals.

323
00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,240
Speaker 1: The biggest tech companies prop up a huge chunk of

324
00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:21,840
Speaker 1: the SMP.

325
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,760
Speaker 2: Is big tech too big to fail?

326
00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,040
Speaker 4: I think that's a too broader question. I think in

327
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,280
Speaker 4: any industry, well, you say too big to fail, which

328
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,920
Speaker 4: I've lost touch with her that really means anymore? Because remember,

329
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,120
Speaker 4: car comes are bailed out and these things are bailed out,

330
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:40,600
Speaker 4: and you know, I don't understand they should ask what

331
00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,720
Speaker 4: they want If the regulars don't want a bank to

332
00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:45,600
Speaker 4: ever fail again, then we should do ABC, D and

333
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 4: E if that's through. I didn't think that was the goal.

334
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,920
Speaker 4: I think Dodd Frank actually accomplished most of the goals,

335
00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:54,080
Speaker 4: which is dramatically reduced to risk, create liquidity, capital stuff

336
00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,000
Speaker 4: like that. So and big tech, you got to be

337
00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,480
Speaker 4: very specific. You know, sometimes companies misuse their position and

338
00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,880
Speaker 4: sometimes they don't. Sometimes regulators captured and sometimes they don't.

339
00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:04,960
Speaker 3: You know, we but they're they're.

340
00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,640
Speaker 4: Powerful, you know, and we have to deal with I've

341
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,800
Speaker 4: been writing about you know, big tech going to our business.

342
00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,040
Speaker 4: We got fintech, but we also have big tech and

343
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,880
Speaker 4: they will embed payment systems in there to some we're

344
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 4: gonna white label banks kind of what Apple did.

345
00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:18,800
Speaker 3: Uh. You know, they have the right to do that.

346
00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:19,800
Speaker 3: I'm not against that.

347
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,120
Speaker 4: I would be against unfair use of their position to

348
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:24,360
Speaker 4: dominates in a business.

349
00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,480
Speaker 1: Well, Apple is going deeper into financial services.

350
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,080
Speaker 2: Do you worry about the bank of Apple?

351
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:29,960
Speaker 3: I wrote about it.

352
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,240
Speaker 4: I wrote about like five years ago, you know, like

353
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,760
Speaker 4: what is a bank? Well, I'm we'll get to compete,

354
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,200
Speaker 4: so they have they have a tough competitor, but you know,

355
00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,320
Speaker 4: they hold money move money.

356
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 2: Uh.

357
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,640
Speaker 4: They you could put money in a basically you know markets,

358
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:47,320
Speaker 4: but white labeled checking account, credit card.

359
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,560
Speaker 3: Uh, you know all these things. Yeah, they're a form

360
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:50,240
Speaker 3: of a competitor.

361
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:52,720
Speaker 4: You know, we also partner with them, but I'm very

362
00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,120
Speaker 4: used to partnering and competing with lots of people.

363
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 2: Existential threat.

364
00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,280
Speaker 4: I don't think it's an existential threat, but I think

365
00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,480
Speaker 4: if we were complacent about it.

366
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,960
Speaker 1: Yes, Jamie Diamond, we're here to talk about tech. I'll

367
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 1: see you on stage. Jamie Diamond, Charing, CEO of JP Morgan,

368
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 1: thank you,