Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of The Markma Show,
Speaker 1: where we talk about the decentralized revolution each and every week,
Speaker 1: talking about bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the way the world is changing. Now.
Speaker 1: I try to keep you up to date with the
Speaker 1: education so you can see the world in the right way.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of noise out there. We're looking for
Speaker 1: the signal. We gotta kind of pull back the covers
Speaker 1: on this and so I try to help you with that,
Speaker 1: bring bring you some of the latest breaking news around
Speaker 1: around the world so you can stay up to date
Speaker 1: on what's going on, and of course bring to you
Speaker 1: some some interesting guests so you can listen to and
Speaker 1: right now, you know, we're gonna talk about some of
Speaker 1: these big news stories so we can kind of understand
Speaker 1: what's going on in the world today. I think it's
Speaker 1: um there's a lot going on. And lately what's been
Speaker 1: going on is the markets have been crashing. The stock
Speaker 1: markets have been crashing, the real estate markets are softening up,
Speaker 1: but the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin has been crashing, and the
Speaker 1: crypto markets have been crashing, and uh, you know, it's
Speaker 1: interesting going through what we call a bear market. When
Speaker 1: the markets dropped this fast UM in the bitcoin space,
Speaker 1: in the cryptocurrency space. It happens, you know, every couple
Speaker 1: of years you go through this, this bitcoin bear market
Speaker 1: there or this winter as they call it. And it's
Speaker 1: been you know, I guess maybe just the second time
Speaker 1: I've been through it, and uh, it doesn't get an easier.
Speaker 1: But I want to give you some stories that will
Speaker 1: help you through with this. All right, so let's talk.
Speaker 1: Let's take a look and see what has been going on.
Speaker 1: So UM obviously no surprise, the price of bitcoin is
Speaker 1: way down. We know that UM from the November high
Speaker 1: that it's set. We are down approximately as of right now,
Speaker 1: about sixty seven percent off of the high, which is
Speaker 1: not good. It's it's pretty far down. However, if you
Speaker 1: put that into UM comparison, it's not good compared to
Speaker 1: what right, That's always a question you want to ask yourself. Well,
Speaker 1: we know that the NASDAC, for example, which has all
Speaker 1: the tech stocks, the Nasdaq index has bump up in
Speaker 1: the last few days. We're down about thirty percent just
Speaker 1: on the on the index, so sixty seven percent on
Speaker 1: bitcoin on the text docks. However, that doesn't really tell
Speaker 1: the picture, right if we dig into the NASDAC. We
Speaker 1: can see that half of the Nasdaq is down more
Speaker 1: than most of it's down even more than Bitcoin. And
Speaker 1: most of the big names that you know and love,
Speaker 1: the zooms, the shopifies, the paypals, they're down seventy eighty
Speaker 1: percent or more. So Bitcoin has done pretty good. But
Speaker 1: what is going to happen with it from here? That's
Speaker 1: a good question, and we'll dig into some of the
Speaker 1: stories this week to try to figure that out. So
Speaker 1: we can see that bitcoin is one of the last
Speaker 1: free markets that we have. So it trades seven it
Speaker 1: trades very liquid and uh, it's not uh and so
Speaker 1: so trades pretty freely. That doesn't mean it's not manipulated.
Speaker 1: So because it's such a small market, it was up
Speaker 1: to about a trillion dollars at one point. It's down
Speaker 1: to about four hundred billion today, which which is a
Speaker 1: lot of money. But when you're a front hedge fund
Speaker 1: on Wall Street, you throw around hundreds of billions at
Speaker 1: a time. So four billion isn't that big in the
Speaker 1: grand scheme of things compared to the overall market, stock markets, etcetera.
Speaker 1: And so it moves, you know, it moves pretty easily.
Speaker 1: It's very thinly traded, meaning there's not a liquidity there.
Speaker 1: And so because of that, if you had enough liquidity,
Speaker 1: you could move the market. So what do I mean
Speaker 1: by that, Well, we can see that the market cap,
Speaker 1: like I said, it's about four hundred million, but there's
Speaker 1: about um let's see, there's about twenty five billion dollars
Speaker 1: a day that's being traded in bitcoin. And so if
Speaker 1: you were to overwhelm the market with you know, a
Speaker 1: few hundred million dollars, you could you could really affect
Speaker 1: the market one way or another. And so what we saw,
Speaker 1: and I've been covering this for weeks now, we saw
Speaker 1: this cascading, this domino effect of D five defy, decentralized
Speaker 1: finance and c FI centralized finance, UM platform arms, companies,
Speaker 1: et cetera, starting to collapse. And what happened is is
Speaker 1: when one went down. We started with Tera Luna. We
Speaker 1: talked about that at length. When that went down, it
Speaker 1: started to create liquidation, to start liquidating people. That's what
Speaker 1: happens when you use too much leverage, and we have
Speaker 1: too much leverage across all of the markets, from real
Speaker 1: estate to stocks and cryptocurrencies as well. And as those
Speaker 1: people's leverage were leveraged up and the price started going down.
Speaker 1: They started getting margin calls meaning hey, you better post
Speaker 1: more collateral, we're gonna liquidate your position. And as those
Speaker 1: positions got sold into the market, it was more selling.
Speaker 1: More selling brought the price down even more, which then
Speaker 1: caused even more liquidations. When it brought the price down
Speaker 1: even more, which caused more liquidations than you understand how
Speaker 1: it works, It's like a going down a set of stairs.
Speaker 1: And so then we started seeing um Tara Luna go down,
Speaker 1: and then it started to drag down other ones. So
Speaker 1: then we saw like Celsius go down, and then it
Speaker 1: brought down voyager Um. They had to file for bankruptcy
Speaker 1: over the last week, and it started bringing all of
Speaker 1: these down. But it looks like we've kind of hit
Speaker 1: the bottom with all of these big liquidations, and so
Speaker 1: we've seen f t X step in and basically backstop this.
Speaker 1: And it's kind of similar. And I used the when
Speaker 1: we talked about Terry Lune, I talked about like the
Speaker 1: free banking era, and so before the Federal Reserve of
Speaker 1: the United States in the late eighteen hundreds, we had
Speaker 1: an era known as free banking where banks could pop up,
Speaker 1: they could create their own currency. But these banks have
Speaker 1: out of business all the time. So the Federal Reserve
Speaker 1: was created, UM for what they tell us is to
Speaker 1: to backstop the banks, to protect the banks, to make
Speaker 1: sure that the banks don't out of business. They would
Speaker 1: be what's called the lender of last resort. They would
Speaker 1: come in and and buy them up or or prop
Speaker 1: them up. And what we've kind of seen now is
Speaker 1: we're seeing all these c FI and defy protocols and
Speaker 1: platforms going down, and f t X has now stepped
Speaker 1: in to start shoring these up to backstop these companies.
Speaker 1: And so they've agreed to buy a block five. I
Speaker 1: believe they've backstopped Voyager as well, and we're seeing f
Speaker 1: t X now really Sam Bankman freed Alamy to come
Speaker 1: in and kind of back stop this almost kind of
Speaker 1: take this Federal Reserve position. UM. And I don't want
Speaker 1: to get super deep into that, but UM, what I
Speaker 1: do want to just cover is that it looks like
Speaker 1: we've seen, um probably the worst of it at this point,
Speaker 1: meaning that we probably don't have any more of these
Speaker 1: giant liquidations in front of us, because I don't see
Speaker 1: how they would put in, you know, hundreds of millions
Speaker 1: of dollars to just let it go away disappear. Now
Speaker 1: they're sitting on billions of dollars. If they need to
Speaker 1: proping putting more money, they'll put in more money and
Speaker 1: they're not going to let it go down now. So
Speaker 1: I think that damage is done. So markets stopped going
Speaker 1: down when there's no more sellers, pretty simple. And so
Speaker 1: you had all these liquidations. These forced sellers continue to
Speaker 1: sell and sell and sell, pushing the price down, which
Speaker 1: caused more liquidations. I talked to you through that. But
Speaker 1: now who are the sellers? Well, we saw more of
Speaker 1: the last week or two. And what am I talking
Speaker 1: about that? Well, now the bitcoin miners are forced to
Speaker 1: start liquidating their bitcoin as a matter of fact, that
Speaker 1: they've been dumping it, and it would be a better word.
Speaker 1: And we can see a bunch of these big bitcoin
Speaker 1: mining companies, publicly traded ones have been dumping their their bitcoin.
Speaker 1: We can see argo Blockchain was the latest crypto mining
Speaker 1: firm to dump bitcoin. It's sold fifteen point six million
Speaker 1: in bitcoin. It's the second crypto minor this week to
Speaker 1: announce it sold more coin than it mined last month.
Speaker 1: So they they typically they would be mining bitcoin, but
Speaker 1: they wouldn't sell it all. They would keep some of it.
Speaker 1: But argo had to sell all of the coins they
Speaker 1: mind last month, and they had to dip into some
Speaker 1: of their savings of the reserve and start selling that
Speaker 1: as well. UM in June they had sold six hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty seven bitcoin, which pushed the price down. UM
Speaker 1: they had mined a hundred and seventy nine, so they
Speaker 1: mined a hundred and seventy nine, but they sold sixty seven,
Speaker 1: so that was big. But they're not the only ones
Speaker 1: doing that. Another crypto minor called core Scientific dumped a
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty five million dollars worth of bitcoin to
Speaker 1: get more liquidity, so they had to sell over seven
Speaker 1: thousand bitcoin to cover costs. Now they say that they
Speaker 1: sold seventy two bitcoin at an average price of twenty
Speaker 1: three thou dollars, leaving ud on their books, so they've
Speaker 1: got rid of seven thousand. They still have almost two
Speaker 1: thousand left, so they could potentially sell more, but they've
Speaker 1: sold the majority of it. They said they're not having
Speaker 1: a tough time. They're gonna be okay. They still expect
Speaker 1: to bring on seventy thousand new bitcoin mining computers in
Speaker 1: the next six months. They've already paid ninety US at
Speaker 1: the cost for these, so those should be good. But
Speaker 1: we see this going on and on and on. Here's
Speaker 1: this says here in the last two weeks of June,
Speaker 1: many large bitcoin wallets have emerged. Over the past two weeks,
Speaker 1: a number of addresses holding ten to ten thousand bitcoin
Speaker 1: appeared on the network while bitcoin was going down, and
Speaker 1: uh they popped up to absorb more than eighteen thousand
Speaker 1: bitcoin worth three seventy two million dollars was put onto
Speaker 1: the market by these bitcoin miners and it all got absorbed.
Speaker 1: And so it looks like all of the big selling
Speaker 1: is done. Now. Individuals can still sell. Some of these
Speaker 1: miners still have some bitcoin they could still sell, but
Speaker 1: the majority of it is done. And even more importantly,
Speaker 1: all these big whales showed up and gobbled it all up.
Speaker 1: So it's bullish. It looks like maybe we found the bottom.
Speaker 1: Of course, we'd never know until we're looking backwards on it.
Speaker 1: But based off of what we can see, based off
Speaker 1: of the liquidations, based off the mining sales, maybe we
Speaker 1: have you're listening to the Mark Mos show talking about
Speaker 1: bitcoin cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution. I got a lot
Speaker 1: more to cover in a minute when I come back,
Speaker 1: So don't go away. I'll be right back, all right,
Speaker 1: Welcome back. You're listening to the Mark Mo Show. We're
Speaker 1: talking about the decentralized revolution. Look at the way the
Speaker 1: world is changing. Of course, the catalyst being bitcoin cryptocurrencies,
Speaker 1: and uh, we've been talking about bitcoin and what's going
Speaker 1: on with the price, what's happening with the liquidations, what's
Speaker 1: pushing the price down. There is a lot of stuff
Speaker 1: going on, but it looks like we might have about
Speaker 1: found the bottom of it. We know that markets stopped
Speaker 1: going down when there's no more sellers now. Um, there
Speaker 1: was a lot of big companies that went down, and
Speaker 1: so we talked about Terry Luna that's gone. But sell
Speaker 1: Seius is one of the biggest ones and they halted
Speaker 1: withdraws and a lot of people have money locked up
Speaker 1: on that platform that they may or may not be
Speaker 1: able to get off, and a lot of people are
Speaker 1: hopeful that they'll get their money off. Ah, there's a
Speaker 1: chance depends on where your money is in which account,
Speaker 1: if it's in a lending account, or if it's in
Speaker 1: a holding account. Um, it depends on what they're they're
Speaker 1: going through, like a bankruptcy now, so it depends on
Speaker 1: how they decided to negotiate this out. Um. Will depend
Speaker 1: on if you get some and how much you get.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of factors there. But first thing
Speaker 1: they had to do is they had to survive to
Speaker 1: even get to the point where they can negotiate that down. Now. Um,
Speaker 1: we talked about market stoff going down when there's no
Speaker 1: more sellers, and these big liquidations have been happening to
Speaker 1: have been basically forcing the cell of thousands and thousands
Speaker 1: and thousands of bitcoin, dumping them onto the market. And
Speaker 1: it was a little bit scary for me because what's
Speaker 1: been happening, and I've been talking about this extensively, um,
Speaker 1: is that we have these big Wall Street funds and
Speaker 1: they're hunting these pegs to break them so they can
Speaker 1: make some money. Now, it happens all the time, It's
Speaker 1: been happening for a long time. They do it outside
Speaker 1: of cryptocurrency as well. I mean just think game stop, right, um.
Speaker 1: And so they they purpose they try to break these pegs.
Speaker 1: That's how George Soros got famously rich, made a billion
Speaker 1: dollars in one day by breaking the peg of the
Speaker 1: Bank of England. And so they'll throw around their weight,
Speaker 1: they'll throw around their money to try to break these things.
Speaker 1: And they may or may not have something to do
Speaker 1: with Celsius. I'm going down having to halt with their draws.
Speaker 1: But we could see because with bitcoin and blockchain, we
Speaker 1: can see these most of these addresses, and we can
Speaker 1: see where the wallets are um and how many coins
Speaker 1: they hold in et cetera. And we could see based
Speaker 1: off of these decentralized protocols, these defied lending protocols, that
Speaker 1: they had a liquidation price. I want to say it
Speaker 1: was around like eighteen thousand dollars and I Bitcoin got
Speaker 1: to about eighteen thousand dollars, then Celsius would be liquidated.
Speaker 1: And that means two things. One that would push the
Speaker 1: price of bitcoin down even more. And to uh, if
Speaker 1: they got liquidated, anybody that had money on Celsius that
Speaker 1: was trapped, that were hoping to get some back wouldn't
Speaker 1: wouldn't get it, but they but they were able to
Speaker 1: get money to continue to pay this this loan down.
Speaker 1: They took out a decentralized finance loan on a on
Speaker 1: a protocol called maker dow and so the way it
Speaker 1: works on a decentralized protocol is that you have to
Speaker 1: overcollateralize the loan. And so if I want to borrow
Speaker 1: UM fifty dollars, I have to give them a hundred
Speaker 1: dollars or more of collateral and so in order for UM.
Speaker 1: If that gets liquidated, then Celsius would lose all of
Speaker 1: that collateral they had on the exchange. But they've been
Speaker 1: able to continue to get more money. And I don't
Speaker 1: know where they've been getting money from, but it says
Speaker 1: here that Celsius Network was able to pay down the
Speaker 1: remaining forty one million of its debt on the defied
Speaker 1: platform on the Maker down platform, which freed up four
Speaker 1: hundred and forty million dollars worth of collateral, which is
Speaker 1: a pretty good move for for Celsius, and it's good
Speaker 1: if you have money trapped on the Celsius platform. Um,
Speaker 1: we can see here. It says that the on chain data,
Speaker 1: so that's how we can see what's happening here. We
Speaker 1: can see all this on chain data. It's one of
Speaker 1: the benefits of the bitcoin and the blockchain technology is
Speaker 1: that we can see all that data, and so it
Speaker 1: adds transparency, which in my opinion is a good thing.
Speaker 1: Um when you have things like stocks and equities and
Speaker 1: things like that, you have no idea what's going on there,
Speaker 1: but at least the blockchain we can see that data.
Speaker 1: So on Chaine data shows that a wallet linked to
Speaker 1: Celsius repaid the remaining forty one point two million of
Speaker 1: the loan in die, which is the currency that maker
Speaker 1: now uses, which is the says the maker's protocol stable coin.
Speaker 1: That prompted the maker protocol to release nio. So about
Speaker 1: twenty two thousand bitcoin two thousand bitcoin. Imagine there was
Speaker 1: twenty two thousand bitcoin being dumped into the market. If
Speaker 1: that was liquidated, that wouldn't be good for the overall
Speaker 1: cryptocurrency market. It wouldn't be good for Bitcoin, It certainly
Speaker 1: wouldn't be good for Celsius, and it certainly wouldn't be
Speaker 1: good for anybody that has money trapped on Celsius that
Speaker 1: are hoping to get that out. So that took that away.
Speaker 1: Remember twenty bitcoin where a danger of being liquidated in
Speaker 1: the market. It says that works out to about four
Speaker 1: hundred forty eight millions. Since the bitcoin was recently traded
Speaker 1: in about twenty four hundred, which at the time of
Speaker 1: this recording were up a little bit higher than that.
Speaker 1: We're over one right now. We can see here that
Speaker 1: fund strat analyst UM told Coin Desk the collateral that
Speaker 1: Celsius freed up can be sold on centralized exchanges or
Speaker 1: or via over the counter to meet credited demands and
Speaker 1: customer with draws. So now they have that money, and
Speaker 1: now maybe they could start letting some customers get withdraws. Now.
Speaker 1: I don't think they can, because I believe now they're
Speaker 1: kind of in this receivership or this reorganization or restructuring,
Speaker 1: or they're going to have to wait for like a
Speaker 1: formal plan and orderly plan to start giving money back.
Speaker 1: But hopefully there's some hope if you have money on
Speaker 1: Celsius that you might actually get some back. Could be pennies,
Speaker 1: could be none. UM, don't hold your breath, but there
Speaker 1: is a little bit of hope. It says. The cell
Speaker 1: which is their native token on the Celsius platform, spiked
Speaker 1: within minutes on the news, but it's still done eight
Speaker 1: one on the year UM, and it says the loans
Speaker 1: on decentralized the platforms such as Maker are generally overcollateralized.
Speaker 1: So it goes back to if you want to borrow
Speaker 1: fifty bucks, you have to put up about a hundred
Speaker 1: bucks or more me and that the borrow has to
Speaker 1: put up more assets and value as a backing of
Speaker 1: the loan than the value of the loan itself. Repaying
Speaker 1: the loan made sense for Celsius because it could get
Speaker 1: a grip of the valuable collateral by paying back a
Speaker 1: fraction of its value. So they paid back the forty
Speaker 1: million and they got four d forty million of collateral back.
Speaker 1: So big news for Celsius. Now, it doesn't mean we're
Speaker 1: out of the woods, but I think it is good
Speaker 1: news nevertheless, But I would say that I hope this
Speaker 1: is a wake up call for everybody. Now. I put
Speaker 1: out a tweet I think it was I don't know
Speaker 1: about a week ago, and I said something to the
Speaker 1: effect of, um, the age of personal responsibility is going
Speaker 1: to snap back and hard, and what do I mean
Speaker 1: by that? So you know, I feel really bad for
Speaker 1: anybody who's lost any money. I don't wish that upon anybody,
Speaker 1: not even my enemies, which I don't think I have
Speaker 1: any enemies. Hopefully I don't try not to, but I
Speaker 1: don't wish anybody to lose money, so I feel bad
Speaker 1: for them. But at the same time, you should never
Speaker 1: be loaning money to somebody that you don't know what
Speaker 1: the risk is of them paying you back. You shouldn't
Speaker 1: do that. So if you put money onto Celsius, you
Speaker 1: should have known there was risk there, And if you didn't,
Speaker 1: then why would you put money there If you didn't
Speaker 1: know there was risk. So right off the bat, you
Speaker 1: shouldn't have put money there. Then you if you did
Speaker 1: and you knew there was risk, you should have been
Speaker 1: paying attention to that. Now, maybe you believed, like a
Speaker 1: lot of people, that they had overcollateralized all their loans
Speaker 1: and so that there was really no risk of them
Speaker 1: not paying you back because if other people didn't pay
Speaker 1: them back, they had they had the collateral right. But
Speaker 1: then you saw in the news that um, they lost
Speaker 1: money on Badger Dow. What the heck were they doing
Speaker 1: invested into something as risky as a Badger Dow, And
Speaker 1: so that should have told you like, oh, shoot, they're
Speaker 1: doing things that are pretty risky. I should maybe be
Speaker 1: aware of that and and not just to pick on
Speaker 1: Celsius to Could it be block fire, could be voyage,
Speaker 1: or it could be any of these things. First of all,
Speaker 1: they're offering to pay you eight ten interest. Maybe that's
Speaker 1: too good to be true. Second of all, you know
Speaker 1: that's gonna have risk. That's the only way they can
Speaker 1: pay you back if there was risk. Third of all,
Speaker 1: you should be paying attention to that. And when you
Speaker 1: saw some of these risky signs, you should have done
Speaker 1: something to remove that risk that you were facing. Now again,
Speaker 1: I don't I'm not trying to wave my finger and
Speaker 1: say I told you so. Um, certainly not saying that
Speaker 1: at all. What I'm saying is that it's time for
Speaker 1: you to step up and take responsibility for yourself. And
Speaker 1: whether you got caught in one of these or didn't,
Speaker 1: you should please use this. We either when are we learn?
Speaker 1: We either win. If I lose, I at least I learned,
Speaker 1: so at least learned from this. Learned that there's no
Speaker 1: such thing as risk free returns. There's always risk. Understand
Speaker 1: how to quantify that risk, take the proper steps to
Speaker 1: limit that risk, and become responsible for yourself because no
Speaker 1: one's coming to save you. You're listening to the Mark
Speaker 1: Ball Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution, talking about bitcoin, potocurrencies,
Speaker 1: and trying to make sense of the news that's going
Speaker 1: on today so we can understand where things are going
Speaker 1: in the near future. I'll be back with a lot
Speaker 1: more and a second, so don't go away. I'll be
Speaker 1: right back. All right, Welcome back. You are listening to
Speaker 1: the Markma Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution, the
Speaker 1: world as it's changing right before our very eyes. Of course,
Speaker 1: it's being led by technologies like bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and
Speaker 1: so we talked about that and we watch the world
Speaker 1: as it unfolds so we can navigate it. Now. One
Speaker 1: thing that's important to think about when you're talking about
Speaker 1: new technologies like bitcoin. Now, bitcoin isn't just a new technology.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is a technological revolution. There's a there's a difference.
Speaker 1: A new technology is something cool and it's an improvement
Speaker 1: and it extends markets. So like an iPhone was cool.
Speaker 1: We took a computer and the phone, we put them together.
Speaker 1: Now that's cool, and I love the iPhone, don't get
Speaker 1: me wrong. A technological revolution is different in a way
Speaker 1: that it changes the course of humanity and it drives
Speaker 1: financial markets. There's only been five. I believe bitcoin is
Speaker 1: the sixth technological evolution. They come about every fifty years.
Speaker 1: But whenever you're looking at new technologies and especially technological revolutions,
Speaker 1: it's important to understand how to look at them properly.
Speaker 1: And um, one of the things that I mean by
Speaker 1: that is the wrong way to look at them is
Speaker 1: by looking at the price. The price is the least
Speaker 1: interesting thing and the least accurate thing to take a
Speaker 1: look at. So UM, I like to use the story
Speaker 1: over and over. If you tune in every week, then
Speaker 1: I apologize if you've heard this before, but I like
Speaker 1: to think about Uber and uber. You know, it's pitched
Speaker 1: in Silicon Valley a decade ago, and um, it was
Speaker 1: supposedly going to be this new way to get a ride,
Speaker 1: you know, from your from your phone and people are like,
Speaker 1: what do you mean, I can't I use my phone
Speaker 1: to call a taxi? Well, yeah, it's sort of like that,
Speaker 1: but this is a cool app or whatever, right, But
Speaker 1: imagine if so when you invest into what's called venture
Speaker 1: capital venture deals, these are really early companies. They typically
Speaker 1: don't go public, if if they ever go at all,
Speaker 1: for about a decade. So that means for a decade
Speaker 1: you had money if you would have invested into Uber,
Speaker 1: which by the way, you would have don really well
Speaker 1: if you would have done that. There's been a lot
Speaker 1: of other losers. But if you would have invested into
Speaker 1: Uber in the early days, um, you would have had
Speaker 1: to wait about a decade for it to go public
Speaker 1: and have a daily stock price where you could get
Speaker 1: your money out of it. So during that decade, how
Speaker 1: would you know if it's doing any good Because it
Speaker 1: doesn't have a daily price and it's not publicly listed,
Speaker 1: so um, looking at the price is not something you
Speaker 1: can do, and even if you could, it would be
Speaker 1: the wrong thing to look at. And the reason why
Speaker 1: is when it's so small and so new, it would
Speaker 1: be extremely volatile and you'd be shaking all the time.
Speaker 1: Imagine with Uber where it's like hey we uh we
Speaker 1: we moved into San Francisco, hooray, and the price goes
Speaker 1: up and then oh um, New York cab drivers are
Speaker 1: protesting against Uber, and then the price goes down, and
Speaker 1: every time good news or bad news comes out, it
Speaker 1: was up and down, up and down, up and down,
Speaker 1: and you would drive you crazy. But That's exactly what
Speaker 1: happened with bitcoin. Bitcoin has been a live price since
Speaker 1: day one. Um, So if you can't look at the price,
Speaker 1: or you shouldn't look at the price, what should you
Speaker 1: be looking at? Well, you want to look at two things.
Speaker 1: One is the network growth, the growth of the network
Speaker 1: Metcalf's law. Is the network expanding or more people using it?
Speaker 1: Are the number of wallets going up? Or the addresses
Speaker 1: going up? Are the miners the amount of computers that
Speaker 1: are mining on the network, which equals hash power the
Speaker 1: combined power of those computers hash power? Is that going up?
Speaker 1: Is the network growing? Is the network becoming stronger? And
Speaker 1: then we want to look at the development on the network.
Speaker 1: So think about back to the Uber example. Um, is
Speaker 1: is the Uber network growing? Are there more people signing
Speaker 1: up to give rides? Right? What good is Uber if
Speaker 1: there's no one that will give you a ride? So
Speaker 1: you need to have all the cities and you need
Speaker 1: to have as many drivers as you can in all
Speaker 1: the cities. Right, So the more cities and the more
Speaker 1: drivers you have, the better. But you also need riders.
Speaker 1: So are the writers going up? So is the network growing?
Speaker 1: And so um we would say that with bitcoin, it is, right.
Speaker 1: We can see that through the growth of the miners,
Speaker 1: the growth of the bitcoin wallets. We can see how
Speaker 1: many wallets are being added to the system. And the
Speaker 1: other thing with Uber is you look at the development
Speaker 1: on the network. Is it developing? Have they added new
Speaker 1: types of cars? Now they have rideshare, now they have vans,
Speaker 1: um now they do Uber eats, right, and so they're
Speaker 1: developing on the network. Um, they're improving the product and
Speaker 1: the network is growing. Now it's important understanding with the network.
Speaker 1: Network effects are very very powerful. So a lot of
Speaker 1: people say, well, why can't you just copy Bitcoin? Well
Speaker 1: you can, You can totally copy bitcoin, but you can't
Speaker 1: copy the network. Right. So, um, I could probably have
Speaker 1: someone make me a copy of Facebook and I can
Speaker 1: call it marx Book, But it doesn't mean anybody would
Speaker 1: use it. Right, So I can make a copy of Bitcoin,
Speaker 1: but doesn't mean anybody would use it. More importantly, it
Speaker 1: doesn't mean anybody would come mine on it. Would all
Speaker 1: the miners that have spent hundreds of billions of dollars
Speaker 1: to mine bitcoin to help secure the network, would they
Speaker 1: all just come start mining Marxcoin. They'd give all that up?
Speaker 1: Most likely, not what about all the development that's happened
Speaker 1: on that all the services that have been built, so
Speaker 1: the Bitcoin Lightning Layer two and all the different wallets
Speaker 1: and all the apps and all of that. Would they
Speaker 1: all just come onto marx Coin. Probably not. So why
Speaker 1: while I can copy the idea, I could copy maybe
Speaker 1: even the technology, I can't copy the network now. Um.
Speaker 1: Michael Sailor wrote a book a long time ago, and
Speaker 1: he was talking about network effects. And I believe he said,
Speaker 1: like any any company that's achieved over like a hundred
Speaker 1: billion dollar evaluation, the network effects are too strong for
Speaker 1: it to be overcome. And you don't really see companies
Speaker 1: lose once they've built that network up. And so again
Speaker 1: think Facebook today. Um. Now, eventually maybe people stop using it,
Speaker 1: but but there's no way like another social media app
Speaker 1: would come and replace that. Amazon right, these have big
Speaker 1: network effects. Again, I can go make a new site
Speaker 1: where you can buy and sell products, but doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that network will come over. Um. But so we want
Speaker 1: to look at those things. And I saw this week, UM,
Speaker 1: something that we've seen over and over and over is
Speaker 1: we're seeing minds share. Some of the smartest people in
Speaker 1: the world are leaving their very high positions to come
Speaker 1: work in this space. And so I know right now
Speaker 1: we're in a bear market at the price of bitcoin
Speaker 1: and cryptocurrencies are way down and bitcoin is dead again,
Speaker 1: right It's been dead I think thirteen or fourteen times
Speaker 1: um every time the price draw up. It's dead. Never
Speaker 1: mind that it's it's fallen all the way down to
Speaker 1: its previous high position that was that before. So again
Speaker 1: looking at the wrong um thing. But if bitcoin is dead,
Speaker 1: and then why are some of the smartest people in
Speaker 1: the biggest positions of the world coming over to work
Speaker 1: on it? And so we saw this week a new
Speaker 1: story came out and says three executives leave JP Morgan
Speaker 1: this week to join crypto firms. So JP Morgan one
Speaker 1: of the biggest and most connected banks in the world
Speaker 1: in the United States, Jamie Diamond and JP Morgan. Jamie
Speaker 1: Diamond had once said, um, you know, bitcoin is a scam.
Speaker 1: If anybody at JP Morgan traded, I would fire them.
Speaker 1: But of course now JP Morgan has moved into the space.
Speaker 1: But three executives and one of the most connected banks
Speaker 1: in the world have left to go join crypto. Now,
Speaker 1: a lot of people said, well, it's never gonna work
Speaker 1: because you know, the Governm's gonna make it illegal and
Speaker 1: all these things. Right, Well, these executives are you know,
Speaker 1: they know a couple of things, and they would probably
Speaker 1: not agree because they've left their high power jobs and
Speaker 1: traditional finance to go work for this new company. And
Speaker 1: take a look at that. So we can see here
Speaker 1: UM a banner week for people departing mega bank JP
Speaker 1: Morgan to join the cryptocurrency industry. Three executives taking the
Speaker 1: plunge despite a looming crypto winter. So even though the
Speaker 1: price is down, even though it's dead again, even though
Speaker 1: it's never gonna work, they've decided to leave JP Morgan
Speaker 1: to go join the crypt industry in the winter. No less. Now,
Speaker 1: someone who's been through a few bear markets, and let
Speaker 1: me just say that bear markets are the time to build,
Speaker 1: that's the time we get ahead. We can see. The
Speaker 1: latest leavers include Eric Raggy, a former managing director at
Speaker 1: JP Morgan with twenty one years tenure at the bank. Look,
Speaker 1: he wasn't just a guy who had been there for
Speaker 1: a few months. He had twenty one year's tenure at
Speaker 1: the bank. Um he left to go work ahead of
Speaker 1: business development and capital markets at the company, and we
Speaker 1: have Puja Samuel, formerly ahead of ideation and digitization at
Speaker 1: JP Morgan based in New York City, joins the Digital
Speaker 1: Currency Group. Digital Currency Group runs the new site coin desk,
Speaker 1: They run the event called consensus Um. They have the UM,
Speaker 1: they have the big gray scale trust Bitcoin Trust. So
Speaker 1: he left to go work there UM, and we have
Speaker 1: JP Morgan banker Samir Shaw left the bank to become
Speaker 1: chief operating officer at an investment firm called Pantera Capital.
Speaker 1: So look, these people don't think Krypto is dead. You might,
Speaker 1: but I would just stop and ask myself. Am I
Speaker 1: more connected than this guy that worked at JP Morgan
Speaker 1: for twenty one years? I'm not. I don't know anybody
Speaker 1: at Wall Street or inside JP Morgan. Am I smarter
Speaker 1: than them? I probably no different things than they know.
Speaker 1: But um, you might want to stop and think when
Speaker 1: you see this amount of mindshare leaving tradition, no finance
Speaker 1: to go work in this industry, especially in a bear market,
Speaker 1: and that should give you hope. I think if you
Speaker 1: zoom out and you can have the right time perspective,
Speaker 1: these things can help you a lot. I still believe
Speaker 1: it's the greatest opportunity that we'll ever see in our lifetime.
Speaker 1: Now you listen to the Markmas Show. We're talking about
Speaker 1: the decentralized revolution, the way the world is changing right
Speaker 1: before our very eyes. The catalyst, of course is technology
Speaker 1: as always being led by decentralized technology. We're talking about bitcoin.
Speaker 1: Just going through some of the mind share that's leaving
Speaker 1: the space. And uh, I got a lot more to
Speaker 1: cover when I come back in a minute, some big stuff,
Speaker 1: So don't go away. I'll be right back, all right,
Speaker 1: Welcome back. You are listening to the Markma Show. We're
Speaker 1: talking about the decentralized Revolution. We're talking about bitcoin, We're
Speaker 1: talking about cryptocurrencies. We are talking about the latest breaking news.
Speaker 1: So we can see all of this playing out in
Speaker 1: real time. Now hopefully you've got the last segment there. Um,
Speaker 1: it's a bear market, but it's not dead. We're seeing people,
Speaker 1: some of the top people from the traditional finance space
Speaker 1: are leaving their posts to come in. But I want to, UM,
Speaker 1: I want to talk about a couple of things. Are
Speaker 1: here real quick, so let's see here. First thing, we
Speaker 1: have to understand what happened in the market. We saw
Speaker 1: a bunch of experimentation, which I'm a fan of experimentation.
Speaker 1: UM c FI defy decentralized finance, centralized finance, and we
Speaker 1: saw it end pretty badly. Now, I was talking about
Speaker 1: before that you know, if it sounds too good to
Speaker 1: be true, a lot of times it is. Doesn't mean
Speaker 1: it always is, but a lot of times it is.
Speaker 1: And so UM, at a minimum, you should use some
Speaker 1: extra scrutiny, and you should really dig in and take
Speaker 1: a look at this. And I think when we're looking
Speaker 1: at the c FI DFI platforms, centralized finances, decentralized finance platforms,
Speaker 1: we're talking about the block fives, the celsius is, the voyagers, um,
Speaker 1: the et cetera. When we're looking at those and they're
Speaker 1: paying out, you know, interest, you might ask yourself of
Speaker 1: how in the heck in the world that we're in
Speaker 1: today with zero interest rates they're able to pay out,
Speaker 1: And you would ask yourself that. Now, we talked about
Speaker 1: how all this collapsed and how it became this cascading
Speaker 1: domino effect, and it's really dragged the entire market cap
Speaker 1: down with it. But I think it's also fundamentally transformed
Speaker 1: the industry. At least I hope so so I think
Speaker 1: it's washed out most of, if not not not all,
Speaker 1: but pretty much most of the leverage that's been built
Speaker 1: up in the system. But what I also hope is
Speaker 1: that it wakes people up to the to, like I
Speaker 1: said I'm saying earlier, the era of of a personal responsibility,
Speaker 1: and I think you have to want to be responsible
Speaker 1: for yourself and think about the risk that you're taking.
Speaker 1: But also I think it maybe marks an end to
Speaker 1: that entire era that was there. You know, UM, people
Speaker 1: were taking a lot of risk. They were putting a
Speaker 1: coin on this defied platform, and they're taking it out here,
Speaker 1: and they're wrapping it, and they're putting it on here,
Speaker 1: and they were taking the yield and they're wrapping that
Speaker 1: and they're putting on here, and they're adding all these
Speaker 1: steps and all this complexity to try to get more
Speaker 1: and more what we'd call alpha, more profit, more yield,
Speaker 1: and in order to do that, they were taking more
Speaker 1: and more risks. So it pushes people way out on
Speaker 1: this on this risk curve in order to do that UM.
Speaker 1: And now through the collapse of Anchor and other defied
Speaker 1: protocols UM, we're seeing that these these platforms have blown up.
Speaker 1: It's shrunk. The amount of value that's locked up into
Speaker 1: these DeFi protocols at trunk about sevent from its all
Speaker 1: time high, and we're seeing a lot of them that
Speaker 1: have just disappeared altogether. And I think, um, well, I
Speaker 1: don't know. You can't ever count out the stupidity of
Speaker 1: other people. Um, but typically when you touch a hot stove,
Speaker 1: when you burn your hand, you don't do that again. Um,
Speaker 1: sometimes they might, but I think it should be a
Speaker 1: it should be abundantly clear of anybody looking right now
Speaker 1: that high returns equals higher risk and at a minimum,
Speaker 1: if you want to continue to try these things, hopefully
Speaker 1: you'll take a much more seasons approach to it. Now.
Speaker 1: I also want to give um, that's kind of what
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about the space overall, But I also want
Speaker 1: to give some advice. I was went to a meet
Speaker 1: up last night. Swan Bitcoin put together shout out to
Speaker 1: swan bitcoin. If you're looking to buy bitcoin, check them
Speaker 1: out swan bitcoin dot com. I think slash mark, by
Speaker 1: the way, get ten dollars in free bitcoin. But we
Speaker 1: went to a meet up meet up last night and
Speaker 1: we were talking about the market and what's going to happen,
Speaker 1: and when when will the price of bitcoin come back?
Speaker 1: And how long will this bear market last? This crypto
Speaker 1: bear market? And uh, I said, you know, shoot, it
Speaker 1: could be three years before we see the all time
Speaker 1: high price come back. And some people didn't like that answer.
Speaker 1: And UM, you know, I've been through this before. It
Speaker 1: doesn't Maybe it's a little bit easier, but it's still
Speaker 1: not not fun, still painful. But I said, you know,
Speaker 1: if it took that long to get back, that would
Speaker 1: be a three x return from here, you know, in
Speaker 1: three years that that's pretty good return. I like that, UM.
Speaker 1: But also I think that these bear markets, these these
Speaker 1: winters are opportunities to UM build. And so let's talk
Speaker 1: about a survival guide for the crypto bear market and
Speaker 1: how to get ready for the next bull run. And
Speaker 1: I think a couple of things. You know, one thing
Speaker 1: that I think of is, um, what if it never
Speaker 1: comes back? It's a scary one. I think about that.
Speaker 1: And uh, having gone through this before, like I said,
Speaker 1: it doesn't necessarily get easier. So what how do I
Speaker 1: deal with that? Um? You know, should I panic? Should
Speaker 1: I sell out right now? Or should I double down? Well?
Speaker 1: I would I would think about a couple of ways.
Speaker 1: So first of all, why did you buy the asset?
Speaker 1: What do you think is going to happen with that asset,
Speaker 1: and what's your plan for that? So for me, for example,
Speaker 1: I believe bitcoin is the most pristine asset reserve asset
Speaker 1: we've ever seen. I believe it's a superior form of money.
Speaker 1: I believe it's going to take a big majority out
Speaker 1: of the global reserve assets. I I believe that um
Speaker 1: and so that's why I bought it. That's why I
Speaker 1: hold it, and what am I plan to do with it?
Speaker 1: While I'm planning to hold it until that becomes reality,
Speaker 1: which could be past my lifetime. And so that's what
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for. Now. When it crashes in price, should
Speaker 1: I panic and seller? Should I double down? Well, I
Speaker 1: would ask myself, do I still think that could be true? Well?
Speaker 1: The network still works as design, the network growth is
Speaker 1: still happening in development, never gonna happen. It looks like
Speaker 1: it's still on track to do that. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: continue to hold. As a matter of fact, I will
Speaker 1: double down on this. Now, let's say that you bought
Speaker 1: like a board ape n f T for example, why
Speaker 1: did you buy it, and what did you expect to
Speaker 1: happen in what were you thinking would happen. So let's
Speaker 1: say that you bought this because all your friends were
Speaker 1: buying them and were doubling tripling their money within thirty days.
Speaker 1: Now you bought it and the price dropped, Well, do
Speaker 1: you still think you can double the triple your money
Speaker 1: in thirty days? Um? And uh? You know, and ask
Speaker 1: yourself that question. Now I would say, well, shoot, now
Speaker 1: there's been a million board apes come on, and I
Speaker 1: can just go onto Google images and search board apes
Speaker 1: and I could just right click and save any of those.
Speaker 1: So I don't know if that's going to be a reality. More.
Speaker 1: I really bought into the hype of the hype is
Speaker 1: dead now and so since the hype is dead and
Speaker 1: I only bought it for the hype and it's dead,
Speaker 1: then maybe I should get rid of it. Now. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying that's the case, but these are ways that
Speaker 1: I would think through this process. You never want to
Speaker 1: become a forced seller. That means you don't want to
Speaker 1: panic at the bottom. It's simple, not easy, but simple.
Speaker 1: You're supposed to buy low and sell high, not buy
Speaker 1: high and sell low. So you don't want to be
Speaker 1: a force seller at the bottom. You shouldn't panic, which
Speaker 1: brings me to the next point, which is avoid panic selling. Um.
Speaker 1: You also want to avoid greed. So if you were
Speaker 1: only buying these board apes at astronomical levels because you
Speaker 1: thought you could triple or quadruple or ten extra money
Speaker 1: in thirty days, you were buying into greed. So you
Speaker 1: don't want to you want to avoid greed. Um. I
Speaker 1: can tell you that my phone starts ringing off the
Speaker 1: hook with people I haven't talked to in years and
Speaker 1: years and years when Bitcoin reaches new all time highs.
Speaker 1: They're buying into greed. You're supposed to buy at the
Speaker 1: bottom when it's cheap, not at the top when it's expensive. Um,
Speaker 1: but now it's cheap and people don't want to buy,
Speaker 1: so think about that. But you want to avoid the
Speaker 1: panic selling. That means being forced to sell. That means
Speaker 1: avoid liquidations. And so that goes to my next point,
Speaker 1: which is staying solvent. So you don't ever want to
Speaker 1: buy um or trade with leverage. I like to say
Speaker 1: leverages like fire. It can warm your house up or
Speaker 1: it can burn your house down. And a lot of
Speaker 1: times people get into the greedy part they start using leverage,
Speaker 1: and then they are they become a forced seller. So
Speaker 1: those things all kind of work together. And so shoot,
Speaker 1: if my bitcoin is not levered, then I can let
Speaker 1: it ride all the way down and I'll hold it
Speaker 1: until it goes all the way back up again. But
Speaker 1: if I have leverage against it, I've taken loans against it,
Speaker 1: or I'm trading with leverage with it, then and the
Speaker 1: price moves down, then I get liquidated. Then I become
Speaker 1: a forced seller. So then I was forced to sell low.
Speaker 1: I don't want to sell low. I want to sell high.
Speaker 1: And so you don't ever want to become a force seller.
Speaker 1: You don't want to be a panic seller. You want
Speaker 1: to still stay solvent. The other thing I'd say is research.
Speaker 1: Spend your time doing research. What's going on? Is it
Speaker 1: going to survive? What was my thesis? Why did I
Speaker 1: buy it? What did I expect? What happened? Is that
Speaker 1: still on track? As long as long as I'm researching
Speaker 1: and as long as my thesis is remaining true, and
Speaker 1: as long as that project is staying on track, then
Speaker 1: I'm going to continue to stay in it. If I
Speaker 1: come to find out that there's new information and it's
Speaker 1: not on track anymore than I should get out of
Speaker 1: it as fast as I can. The last piece I'd
Speaker 1: give you is keep your job. We saw a record
Speaker 1: amount of job quits at the end of last year.
Speaker 1: People want to quit their jobs to trade options on
Speaker 1: robin Hood and trade cryptocurrencies. Think twice about quitting your job.
Speaker 1: You want to have income coming in so you're not
Speaker 1: forced into be an emotional force to seller. Hopefully that
Speaker 1: helps you get through the crypto bearer market. How Ever,
Speaker 1: long at last and listening to the Mark Moa show
Speaker 1: talking about the decentralized Revolution talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Speaker 1: That's what I got for you today. Thanks for listening.
Speaker 1: Until next time.